# | predicted | known | user | est. | judged | prediction |
1 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-06-20 | Matt | 1 | Right | PredictionBook will have an Alpha server running by June 20, 2008 |
2 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-06-23 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | ASX will finish above 5440 |
3 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-06-30 | Natalie | 1 | Wrong | Sype video will not work next time |
4 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-06-19 | Natalie | 1 | Wrong | The epiode "11" of scrubs Series 7 we have just watched is not actually episode 11 |
5 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-06-20 | Adam | 1 | Right | We will have validation of result dates |
6 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-06-26 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | It will take you until at least next Friday to get an input mask into the percentage field. |
7 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-12-30 | Trainor | 7 | Right | pbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08 |
8 | 2008-06-20 | 2008-08-01 | Lina | 1 | Wrong | We will be living at 630 Canning by Aug 1st. |
12 | 2008-06-21 | 2008-06-24 | Miyo | 1 | Wrong | Andy will come home from King Island later than Tuesday |
15 | 2008-06-21 | 2008-05-07 | Lina | 1 | Wrong | It will take 2 weeks for Trike to fix the glich that has my predictions going in multiple times. |
16 | 2008-06-23 | 2008-06-24 | Lina | 1 | Right | No one else will make a prediction today. |
18 | 2008-06-24 | 2008-06-24 | Matt | 1 | Right | Movies have a smaller _relative_ market share now than 10 yrs ago |
19 | 2008-06-26 | 2008-06-26 | Adam | 1 | Right | pbook will remember my name after this prediction |
20 | 2008-06-27 | 2008-06-27 | Adam | 1 | Right | pbook will deal with input like ßéàüçñåπæœ |
21 | 2008-06-29 | 2008-11-08 | Lina | 9 | Right | Obama will be the next US president. |
24 | 2008-07-01 | 2008-01-01 | Andy | 2 | Wrong | Quiksilver shares will finish the year above $11 |
25 | 2008-07-02 | 2008-07-04 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | Excess bagage delivered by end of week (friday) |
26 | 2008-07-02 | 2008-07-16 | Frank | 2 | Right | Despite much reading I will be unable to speed up my PS3's web browsing |
27 | 2008-07-04 | 2008-07-08 | Glenn | 5 | Right | The world will not end when the LHC is activated |
28 | 2008-07-04 | 2008-07-04 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Per distance travelled, aeroplanes result in less fatalities than helicopters |
29 | 2008-07-04 | 2008-07-04 | Adam | 2 | Right | Our deploy of shared predictions will happen without fault |
32 | 2008-07-06 | 2008-06-29 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | both pineal lesions from last week will turn out to be germinomas on histology |
33 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | Textile "(classname)links(now way this tooltip is gonna work)":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Textile_(markup_language) render correctly |
34 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-13 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | *this weekend* will not work as a result date |
35 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-13 | Glenn | 1 | Right | solid description formatting will be implemented by this weekend |
36 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | @code@ tags will break rendering |
37 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | blockquote bq. tags will break rendering |
38 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | blockquote bq. tags will break rendering |
39 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Right | bq. starting a line with blockquote will break rendering |
40 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Right | images will render inline !http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/31/Dancing_Banana.gif! |
41 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Right | the prediction with the dancing banana will annoy Matt |
42 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Right | <FONT color="#ffffff" size="+1"><MARQUEE bgcolor="#000080" direction="right" loop="20" width="75%"><STRONG>Marquee's will work</STRONG></MARQUEE></FONT> |
43 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Right | <BLINK>Blink tag will work</BLINK> |
44 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-07 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | multi line predictions will render multiline _=====_ _=====_ / _____ \ / _____ \ +.-'_____'-.---------------------------.-'_____'-.+ / | | |
47 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-09 | Adam | 3 | Wrong | austhink payment will be done by wednesday |
48 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-11 | Adam | 3 | Wrong | austhink payment will be done by end of 4 day week |
49 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-08 | Andy | 1 | Right | Windfinder will be more accurate than Coastalwatch or Swellnet for tomorrow mornings winds |
50 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-18 | Andy | 2 | Right | My 6'0" will feel way better with DHD-2's rather than K2.1's |
51 | 2008-07-07 | 2008-07-10 | Miyo | 2 | Right | Two of my three ebay listings will have a bid by Thursday 10pm |
52 | 2008-07-08 | 2008-07-18 | Kenji | 2 | Wrong | modelling and design of bed base will take 15hrs |
53 | 2008-07-09 | 2008-08-09 | Glenn | 2 | Wrong | austhink credit credit and paypal payment will be published live |
54 | 2008-07-09 | 2008-08-09 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | we will need pagination on the front page |
55 | 2008-07-10 | 2008-07-24 | Chantelle | 3 | Wrong | Trike staff will eat all the chocolates and raise money for charity |
56 | 2008-07-10 | 2008-07-11 | Andy | 1 | Right | Telstra iphone contracts will be significantly more expensive than Optus |
57 | 2008-07-10 | 2008-07-11 | Lina | 2 | Wrong | The iphone wont sell out today |
58 | 2008-07-13 | 2008-07-16 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | Matt won't use his own website for the next 3 days |
59 | 2008-07-14 | 2008-07-23 | Frank | 3 | Right | Gerrit will return with new (and proably metrosexual) facial hair |
60 | 2008-07-14 | 2008-07-15 | Frank | 2 | Wrong | I will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow. |
61 | 2008-07-14 | 2008-08-01 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | that mass I saw today will turn out to be a cystic meningioma on histology |
62 | 2008-07-15 | 2008-07-15 | Adam | 2 | Right | first test paypal payment through austhink refactor will fail with an mildly new error message |
63 | 2008-07-15 | 2008-07-21 | Matt | 4 | Right | I'll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth's account changes without going to the branch |
64 | 2008-07-15 | 2008-08-30 | Adam | 2 | Right | Generation Kill won't have quite the same depth of story as The Wire |
65 | 2008-07-15 | 2008-07-19 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | My account details from HSBC will arrive before the end of the week |
66 | 2008-07-16 | 2009-01-01 | Glenn | 5 | Wrong | 1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out |
67 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-23 | Andy | 2 | Right | After releuctantly joining Facebook, I will end up with over 25 friend requests within the first week. Unsolicited. |
68 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-23 | Andy | 2 | Right | Between 20 and 40% of friend requests will be from people that I don't really want as friends (but I awkwardly accept anyway) |
69 | 2008-07-16 | 2009-01-16 | Andy | 2 | Right | I will be able to use Facebook for some mild professional benefit within the next 6 months |
70 | 2008-07-16 | 2010-01-01 | Glenn | 5 | Wrong | Google will buy Twitter by 2010 |
71 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-17 | Frank | 2 | Wrong | I will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow. |
72 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-18 | Frank | 2 | Wrong | I will be called in for an angiogram between 8pm and 8 am in the next 3 nights |
73 | 2008-07-16 | 2009-01-01 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | when I write jan 1st 2010 it stores as 1st January 2010 |
74 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-08-06 | Glenn | 1 | Right | interpreting 2010 as a 8:10pm (as a bug) will not be fixed for ages |
75 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-08-16 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | ambiguous (and proably contradictorily worded) predictions will have some means of 'in app' resolution |
76 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-20 | Glenn | 1 | Right | typing 100 years from now as a result date will no longer crash the server |
77 | 2008-07-16 | 2018-07-16 | Glenn | 1 | Right | the 2010 bug will strike again before it is fixed |
78 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-16 | Glenn | 1 | Right | we will have a judged 100% prediction by the end of today |
79 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-16 | Glenn | 2 | Wrong | this prediction is wrong |
80 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-21 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | Authorize.Net will be the first gateway to return my enquiry with any useful information |
81 | 2008-07-16 | 2009-01-01 | Lina | 3 | Right | Electrodrive will post 2 new news items a month for the rest of the year |
82 | 2008-07-16 | 1958-07-16 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | this prediction will be 'judged' as wrong |
83 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-17 | Glenn | 1 | Right | matt will come into work tomorrow wearing, yet again, one of those sleavless jacket things |
84 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-17 | Glenn | 2 | Wrong | we will finish our end of austhink (sans non-bogus gateways) |
85 | 2008-07-16 | 1983-11-03 | Glenn | 1 | Right | i was born |
86 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-20 | Glenn | 1 | Right | failed posting as a new name reverts to session stored name will be fixed by end of friday |
88 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-07-30 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | Glenn will get bored of posting bogus predictions in 2 weeks |
89 | 2008-07-16 | 2008-08-20 | Frank | 1 | Withdrawn | 7377330 = meningioma, or haemangiopericytoma |
91 | 2008-07-18 | 2038-07-18 | Adam | 8 | | The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k |
92 | 2008-07-18 | 2008-07-13 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | there will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark |
93 | 2008-07-18 | 2009-04-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | 6994767 right temp mass will not be a tumour when resected |
94 | 2008-07-18 | 2008-07-18 | Matt | 1 | Right | Within 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position |
95 | 2008-07-18 | 2008-07-19 | Frank | 1 | Withdrawn | 7381437 will turn out to be an acoustic schwannoma |
96 | 2008-07-19 | 2008-08-16 | Frank | 1 | Right | 7370034 = met |
97 | 2008-07-19 | 2008-08-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | 7381792 = meningioma |
98 | 2008-07-20 | 2008-07-21 | Natalie | 1 | Wrong | toenail will fall of by midnight |
99 | 2008-07-22 | 2008-07-23 | Frank | 1 | Right | my bike will be ready to be picked up on time |
100 | 2008-07-22 | 2009-01-22 | Andy | 2 | Right | PBook will become a fun way of sending messages to friends. |
101 | 2008-07-22 | 2008-07-24 | Andy | 1 | Right | Within 2 days I will wish I had put the certainty on my last prediction at a higher percentage |
102 | 2008-07-22 | 2008-07-22 | Andy | 1 | Right | That falafel I had for lunch will come back to say hello |
103 | 2008-07-22 | 2009-07-22 | Andy | 1 | Wrong | Over the next year I will use PBook more than Twitter to update friends on what I'm up to (like that falafel thing) |
104 | 2008-07-23 | 2008-07-25 | Gerrit | 2 | Right | Ferret will not fail until friday |
105 | 2008-07-23 | 2008-07-24 | Gerrit | 1 | Wrong | My quote for Urban was too low |
106 | 2008-07-23 | 2008-08-13 | Gerrit | 1 | Withdrawn | Three weeks for Urban will turn out to be optimistic |
107 | 2008-07-24 | 2008-09-16 | Frank | 1 | Right | 14749874 = cystic meningioma |
108 | 2008-07-24 | 2008-08-16 | Frank | 1 | Withdrawn | HIV pt = viral leukoenchephalitis |
109 | 2008-07-24 | 2008-08-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | same HIV = VZV |
110 | 2008-07-25 | 2008-10-25 | Lina | 2 | Wrong | Fallshaw (Jo) will win the Woolworths Tug job - Jo' prediction, she's really sure. |
111 | 2008-07-26 | 2008-08-09 | Lina | 1 | Right | GD's clan does not include Mercedes |
112 | 2008-07-28 | 2008-07-27 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Against what I've always throught, I (Glenn) am primarily protanomalous, not deuteranomalous. |
113 | 2008-07-30 | 2008-02-15 | Glenn | 1 | Right | not being able to comment on your own prediction is silly |
114 | 2008-07-30 | 2008-07-31 | Glenn | 1 | Right | this will be the most important prediction EVER |
117 | 2008-07-31 | 2008-08-02 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Robbie Rotten's plans will once again be thwarted |
118 | 2008-08-01 | 2008-08-01 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | The Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths |
119 | 2008-08-01 | 2008-08-01 | Glenn | 2 | Wrong | We will finish user accounts by 5pm |
120 | 2008-08-01 | 2009-11-11 | Glenn | 3 | Wrong | The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases |
121 | 2008-08-01 | 2008-08-01 | Adam | 1 | Wrong | Sigur Rós will be awesome but the sound will suck |
122 | 2008-08-01 | 2008-08-01 | Matt | 1 | Right | When I click the link in Glenn's bogus comment in my name, it'll be Rick |
123 | 2008-08-01 | 2008-08-06 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | People will wonder why it has the form for creating a prediction when you're not logged in |
124 | 2008-08-02 | 2008-08-09 | Glenn | 2 | Wrong | Using ✔ and ✘ on the main page (though not the user page) is elitist behaviour that will be destroyed within a week. |
125 | 2008-08-02 | 3008-08-02 | Glenn | 5 | Wrong | this will be the most _popular_ prediction EVER |
126 | 2008-08-03 | 2009-08-03 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | pbook will need some type of legal disclaimer (i.e. privacy policy, user agreement) on signup within a year |
127 | 2008-08-03 | 2008-12-31 | Lina | 1 | Right | I will use the gate out back of canning to park my car in the courtyard at least 10 times this year |
128 | 2008-08-04 | 2008-08-04 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | the human eye is at its full size at birth |
129 | 2008-08-04 | 2008-08-04 | Glenn | 1 | Withdrawn | people find it more difficult to cope with the loss of a hand than the loss of a foot |
130 | 2008-08-05 | 2008-09-20 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | MRN 14751956 adenoid cystic carcinoma of the lacrimal gland |
131 | 2008-08-05 | 2008-09-20 | Talia | 1 | Wrong | 14751956 adenoidcystic ca |
132 | 2008-08-05 | 2008-09-20 | Talia | 1 | Wrong | 14751956 adenoidcystic ca |
133 | 2008-08-07 | 2008-10-01 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | 14546870 = scc of rt scm node |
134 | 2008-08-07 | 2008-10-01 | Frank | 1 | Right | 14840002 = TB or Pap T4 to nodes |
135 | 2008-08-07 | 2008-10-01 | Frank | 1 | Right | 14840002 = pap thyroid to node |
136 | 2008-08-11 | 2008-08-12 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | The CrmHub api will allow the license key to be checked with only license key as input |
137 | 2008-08-11 | 2008-08-12 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | The CrmHub api will allow all license keys to be retreived using an email address |
138 | 2008-08-12 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Right | 14733648 = glioma of some kind |
139 | 2008-08-12 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Withdrawn | 14733648 = gangliocytoma |
140 | 2008-08-12 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | 14733648 = gangliocytoma |
141 | 2008-08-12 | 2008-08-13 | Frank | 1 | Right | case just now ADEM, Lymphoma, Mets |
142 | 2008-08-12 | 2008-08-13 | Frank | 1 | Right | case just now lymphoma |
143 | 2008-08-14 | 2008-08-20 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | The existing crmhub api will allow licenses to be retrieved from an email address (but may require multiple requests) |
144 | 2008-08-14 | 2008-08-14 | Glenn | 1 | Right | this will email me a reminder when i tickle it |
145 | 2008-08-14 | 2008-08-15 | Glenn | 1 | Right | this will NOT email me when i tickle it. yet |
146 | 2008-08-14 | 2011-08-14 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | 1337 is Lupus |
147 | 2008-08-14 | 2008-08-14 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | a prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i'll have to fix it manually |
148 | 2008-08-14 | 2008-08-14 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | a confidence of 0 will break |
149 | 2008-08-14 | 2008-11-16 | Frank | 1 | Right | 14743632 = mengioma |
150 | 2008-08-15 | 2008-08-15 | Gerrit | 1 | Wrong | I will get an email |
151 | 2008-08-15 | 2008-08-15 | Gerrit | 1 | Wrong | I will get an email |
152 | 2008-08-15 | 2008-08-15 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | crontab will work |
153 | 2008-08-15 | 2008-08-29 | Glenn | 1 | Right | prologue is to epilogue as preface is to postface |
154 | 2008-08-16 | 2008-08-16 | Glenn | 1 | Right | _this_ *will* "format":http://www.google.com !bang! kinda |
155 | 2008-08-16 | 2008-08-23 | Glenn | 2 | Right | Matt will be happy he will no longer be able to be instantly Rick rolled |
156 | 2008-08-18 | 2008-08-18 | jarpy | 1 | Right | The rake task to send deadlines will work. |
157 | 2008-08-18 | 2008-08-18 | jarpy | 1 | Wrong | Deadline emails will fail from cron due to sparse environment variables. |
158 | 2008-08-22 | 2008-08-22 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | I will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes |
159 | 2008-08-23 | 2009-02-23 | Andy | 2 | Right | Billabong shares will climb from $11.30 to over $13.50 within 6 months |
161 | 2008-08-25 | 2029-05-16 | Gerrit | 4 | Right | Apophis will not hit earth |
162 | 2008-08-26 | 2010-02-26 | Lina | 2 | Wrong | Skinny jeans will last for no more than 18 months |
163 | 2008-08-26 | 2008-08-27 | Miyo | 1 | Right | moko will behave partcularly well tonight |
164 | 2008-08-26 | 2009-08-26 | Miyo | 2 | Wrong | dave & michelle will be pregnant with in one year of being married. |
165 | 2008-08-26 | 2008-08-26 | Adam | 1 | Right | Coffee machine drain hole is 9mm wide |
166 | 2008-08-26 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Withdrawn | 14721148 = scc node or infective node |
167 | 2008-08-26 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | 14721148 = scc node or infective node |
168 | 2008-08-26 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | 14721148 = TB |
169 | 2008-08-27 | 2010-08-27 | Miyo | 3 | Right | John Farnham will have another come back tour in Australia within 2 years. |
170 | 2008-08-28 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Right | 13333001 = chordoma or chondrosarcom |
171 | 2008-08-31 | 2008-08-31 | Lina | 1 | Right | I will get an email telling me this prediction can be judged |
172 | 2008-09-01 | 2008-03-09 | Lina | 1 | Right | Matt will get me on to redmine today. |
173 | 2008-09-04 | 2008-09-04 | Glenn | 1 | Right | There will be no traffic mishaps on the journey home |
175 | 2008-09-04 | 2008-09-04 | Glenn | 1 | Right | There will be no traffic mishaps on the Westgate between 9:30 and 10am tomorrow morning |
176 | 2008-09-04 | 2008-09-04 | Glenn | 1 | Right | This will redirect me back to recent instead of the old table view |
177 | 2008-09-04 | 2008-09-05 | Adam | 2 | Right | The circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line |
178 | 2008-09-04 | 2008-09-04 | Adam | 1 | Right | After spending an hour on the phone to the UK I will be able to access my account |
179 | 2008-09-05 | 2008-09-06 | Adam | 1 | Right | Tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in UTC |
180 | 2008-09-05 | 2008-09-05 | Adam | 1 | Right | tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in EST (AU) |
181 | 2008-09-05 | 2008-09-05 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work |
182 | 2008-09-05 | 2008-09-19 | Glenn | 4 | Right | Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours |
183 | 2008-09-05 | 2008-09-19 | Glenn | 5 | Right | Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours |
184 | 2008-09-05 | 2008-09-05 | Adam | 1 | Wrong | I won't be able to double post this prediction |
186 | 2008-09-05 | 2008-09-05 | Adam | 1 | Right | I won't be able to dupe this time |
187 | 2008-09-06 | 2008-09-06 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Unchecked won't want to send me an email |
188 | 2008-09-06 | 2008-09-06 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Unchecked response won't want to send me an email |
189 | 2008-09-06 | 2008-09-06 | Glenn | 1 | Right | This prediction will post |
190 | 2008-09-08 | 2008-09-08 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | I will be able to reproduce the nillify blank bug |
191 | 2008-09-08 | 2008-09-08 | Glenn | 1 | Right | This will email me within 10 minutes |
192 | 2008-09-08 | 2008-09-08 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Emailing me will /not/ reproduce the nillify blank bug |
193 | 2008-09-08 | 2009-12-31 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | Despite Federal takeover, ‘Fannie Mae’ and ‘Freddie Mac' will become insolvent, and ultimately bankrupt |
194 | 2008-09-09 | 2008-09-10 | Glenn | 1 | Right | The world will not end when the first LHC beam is injected on 10th September |
195 | 2008-09-09 | 2009-12-28 | Glenn | 13 | Right | The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams |
196 | 2008-09-09 | 2008-09-09 | Glenn | 1 | Right | This will not email me if i say yes then say no |
197 | 2008-09-09 | 2008-09-09 | Matt | 1 | Right | Adam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu |
198 | 2008-09-12 | 2008-10-16 | Frank | 1 | Withdrawn | orbital mass = malignant non lymphoma |
199 | 2008-09-16 | 2008-09-16 | Adam | 1 | Right | Glenn's fixes will have worked |
200 | 2008-09-16 | 2008-09-16 | Glenn | 1 | Right | I won't have to read the manual to set up the monitor |
201 | 2008-09-16 | 2009-11-28 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | There will not be a 2009 season of 'Make Me a Supermodel' |
202 | 2008-09-16 | 2008-09-17 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Adam, Gerrit and Matt didn't know that you can remove a processor from the Mac Pro and save over $700 |
203 | 2008-09-16 | 2010-09-16 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Next time I get breath tested, I'm going to ask to see my reading. The police person won't like it. |
204 | 2008-09-16 | 2008-10-16 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Without participating in a clinical trial, there is no legally available 'fire-and-forget' male contraceptive (pill, patch, injection etc.) |
205 | 2008-09-16 | 2008-09-17 | Glenn | 1 | Right | IngDirect will be back up by tomorrow |
206 | 2008-09-17 | 2008-09-17 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | Wagerable is a word |
207 | 2008-09-17 | 2008-09-17 | Adam | 1 | Withdrawn | this prediction will be worthless |
208 | 2008-09-17 | 2008-09-17 | Glenn | 1 | Right | our changes worked |
209 | 2008-09-18 | 2009-03-18 | AndyAlterEgo | 2 | Wrong | Buying index funds today (S&P at 4552) would be a good investment |
210 | 2008-09-18 | 2008-09-18 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | This deploy will work |
211 | 2008-09-18 | 2008-09-18 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Published predictions will be published |
216 | 2008-09-18 | 2008-09-18 | Glenn | 1 | Right | User publish default settings will work |
224 | 2008-09-22 | 2008-09-22 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | The lyrics to electric feel are "spin me like an electric drill" not "shock me like an electric eel" |
225 | 2008-09-22 | 2008-09-22 | Glenn | 1 | Wrong | "less words" can be considered correct grammar |
226 | 2008-09-22 | 2008-09-22 | Adam | 2 | Right | notification of comments and wagers will inform me |
227 | 2008-09-22 | 2013-04-01 | Adam | 10 | Right | The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative |
228 | 2008-09-23 | 2008-09-26 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | Nat will be paged after midnight |
229 | 2008-09-24 | 2009-11-09 | Glenn | 3 | Right | Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions - even given they now have until our Autumn next year |
230 | 2008-09-24 | 2008-09-26 | Glenn | 1 | Right | "Notify me when someone responds" will be working again by the end of this week |
231 | 2008-09-24 | 2108-09-24 | Glenn | 2 | | Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive |
234 | 2008-09-26 | 2008-09-26 | Adam | 2 | Right | rails partial name scheme for namespaced models will be views/namespace/classname/_classname |
235 | 2008-09-30 | 2009-09-16 | Miyo | 1 | Right | Blackburn football club seniors will finish in the final 5 in EFL 2009 |
236 | 2008-09-30 | 2009-03-16 | Miyo | 1 | Right | Crawf will have a baby boy |
239 | 2008-10-02 | 2008-10-02 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | It will not demonstrate a lot of enhancement |
240 | 2008-10-02 | 2008-11-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | bugger... 11999570 = meningioma |
241 | 2008-10-06 | 2011-04-06 | Andy | 3 | Wrong | Quiksilver shares will double inside 30 months |
242 | 2008-10-06 | 2008-10-06 | Glenn | 1 | Right | I pushed |
243 | 2008-10-07 | 2008-10-08 | tester | 1 | Right | I am tester, hear me roar |
246 | 2008-10-09 | 2008-10-10 | Andy | 1 | Right | Quiksilver shares are better value at $3.62 than they were at $5.08 |
247 | 2008-10-10 | 2009-04-10 | Andy | 1 | Wrong | $3.19 will have been a good buying price for Quiksilver. |
248 | 2008-10-23 | 2008-10-23 | Glenn | 2 | Right | removing prototype.js will make preview work on dentalcorp |
249 | 2008-10-23 | 2008-10-24 | Glenn | 2 | Right | Removing GA, readding Prototype. Preview will work. |
255 | 2008-10-29 | 2008-11-16 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | 14237090 (same as the one before with wrong number) atypical meningioma |
256 | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 | Andy | 1 | Right | Miyo will make a prediction within 5 minutes |
257 | 2008-11-04 | 2008-12-01 | Andy | 1 | Right | The ASX will drop below 4200 again in November this year |
258 | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-06 | Miyo | 1 | Wrong | The ASX will end Thursday above 4,300. |
259 | 2008-11-04 | 2009-08-04 | Andy | 1 | Wrong | Obama will lose, and the USA will have emigration explode to their highest ever rates |
260 | 2008-11-05 | 2008-11-06 | Adam | 2 | Wrong | Implement conditional get/caching of processed feed in pod shifter by 12pm thursday |
272 | 2008-11-10 | 2008-11-09 | Matt | 2 | Right | Charlotte will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). |
273 | 2008-11-12 | 2008-11-12 | Adam | 2 | Right | the aws-s3 refactor of podshifter will successfully upload the converted mp3 to s3 |
276 | 2008-11-19 | 2009-06-19 | Andy | 1 | Wrong | Westpac economist says the ASX will hit 3200 before turning around |
277 | 2008-11-25 | 2008-12-02 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | Our podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode |
278 | 2008-12-02 | 2009-02-01 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009 |
279 | 2008-12-02 | 2009-01-15 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009 |
280 | 2008-12-04 | 2008-12-04 | Matt | 1 | Right | Our unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway |
292 | 2009-02-18 | 2009-03-18 | th | 1 | Right | Electrodrive will buy a label printer |
293 | 2009-02-19 | 2009-03-01 | Adam | 1 | Wrong | my visa will arive |
294 | 2009-02-19 | 2009-04-19 | Adam | 2 | Right | I will be in england before podshifter gets restyled. |
295 | 2009-02-19 | 2009-02-26 | Andy | 1 | Right | The test is wrong: I will still be lactose intolerant |
296 | 2009-03-20 | 2009-03-20 | Wes | 2 | Right | The url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today |
297 | 2009-03-20 | 2009-04-17 | thomas | 1 | Right | North Carolina will win the NCCA championship. |
298 | 2009-04-24 | 2009-12-31 | Andy | 1 | Wrong | Volcom will dip below $10 again before the end of 2009 |
299 | 2009-04-24 | 2009-06-07 | Philip | 2 | Right | Roger Federer will win the French Open. |
300 | 2009-04-28 | 2009-04-29 | dariusp686 | 1 | Right | Deploy lesswrong will ensure new page always shows in new sort order and prevent anyone with an old rising sort order preference from not being able to change their preference and always seeing nothing |
301 | 2009-04-29 | 2009-04-30 | jimmyh | 1 | Withdrawn | i will eat tomorrow |
302 | 2009-04-30 | 2009-05-18 | marquisdetrade | 1 | Withdrawn | S&P will not go above 900 before May 18 |
303 | 2009-04-30 | 2009-06-30 | marquisdetrade | 1 | Wrong | There will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%. |
304 | 2009-05-01 | 2009-12-31 | Pablo Stafforini | 4 | Right | I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. |
305 | 2009-05-05 | 2009-05-05 | scott.arbeitman | 1 | Withdrawn | anything |
306 | 2009-05-05 | 2009-05-05 | Matt | 1 | Right | The result of this coin flip will be heads |
314 | 2009-05-12 | 2009-05-13 | Lina | 2 | Wrong | prediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today |
315 | 2009-05-12 | 2009-05-13 | Lina | 2 | Right | glenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions |
316 | 2009-05-12 | 2009-05-12 | Glenn | 1 | Right | these two machines are the same deployment |
317 | 2009-05-13 | 2009-05-13 | Glenn | 1 | Withdrawn | ▀█▀ █▬█ █ ▄▄█▀▀ |
318 | 2009-05-13 | 2009-05-13 | Glenn | 1 | Right | this will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au |
319 | 2009-05-13 | 2009-11-15 | Miyo | 3 | Wrong | Andy and Miyo will have a baby boy |
320 | 2009-05-14 | 2010-01-01 | Lina | 1 | Right | Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. |
321 | 2009-05-15 | 2009-11-16 | Andy | 2 | Right | It will be a girl. |
322 | 2009-05-15 | 2009-05-15 | Wes | 1 | Right | An email will be sent to me |
323 | 2009-05-15 | 2009-08-16 | Lina | 2 | Right | @kevinrose and @tferriss will make a regular thing of Random |
324 | 2009-05-17 | 2009-06-17 | EvF | 1 | Wrong | For Australia the sex ratio at birth is 1.05 male(s)/female. Stats overall are probably skewed by incidence of deliberate female foetus abortions. Therefore I am 50% sure it will be a boy |
325 | 2009-05-17 | 2009-05-18 | TwitterPredicts | 2 | Wrong | Predicting a Celtics victory tonight |
326 | 2009-05-18 | 2009-05-21 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Adam Lambert will win American Idol |
327 | 2009-05-19 | 2009-05-21 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Kris Allen will not win American Idol |
328 | 2009-05-19 | 2009-05-22 | scott.arbeitman | 2 | Right | Graph axes will have labels by this Friday |
329 | 2009-05-19 | 2009-05-20 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | The LA Lakers will beat the Denver Nuggets tonight |
330 | 2009-05-23 | 2009-05-24 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | The safety car will make an appearance at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix |
331 | 2009-05-23 | 2009-05-24 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | Button will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix |
332 | 2009-05-23 | 2009-05-24 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | A Brawn car will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix |
333 | 2009-05-23 | 2009-05-24 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | The Lakers will have the edge at tonight's playoff |
336 | 2009-05-25 | 2009-05-26 | Andy | 1 | Right | The sun will rise |
337 | 2009-05-26 | 2009-05-26 | Bébhinn | 1 | Wrong | Lakers will take down the Nuggets again tonight. |
338 | 2009-05-26 | 2009-05-27 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | California's Supreme Court will overturn the ban on gay marriage |
339 | 2009-05-26 | 2009-08-14 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | The senate will confirm, Sotomayor, Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court |
340 | 2009-05-27 | 2009-05-27 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic tonight - Cavs will win |
341 | 2009-05-28 | 2011-05-27 | Lina | 5 | Wrong | Google will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years. |
342 | 2009-05-28 | 2010-01-06 | Lina | 1 | Right | Google wave will be a new always open tab in my browser. |
343 | 2009-05-30 | 2009-09-15 | vishnushashank | 3 | Right | Button will be the world champion |
344 | 2009-05-31 | 2009-06-07 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Serena Williams will win the 2009 French Open |
345 | 2009-05-31 | 2010-05-31 | TwitterPredicts | 4 | Wrong | The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer |
346 | 2009-05-31 | 2014-05-31 | crlosg2 | 9 | Right | Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. |
347 | 2009-06-01 | 2010-06-01 | TwitterPredicts | 5 | Wrong | Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate |
348 | 2009-06-01 | 2009-12-31 | TwitterPredicts | 8 | Right | The recession will end this year |
349 | 2009-06-01 | 2011-06-01 | TwitterPredicts | 3 | Wrong | Buffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen |
350 | 2009-06-01 | 2009-08-01 | Andy | 1 | Right | Billabong shares will increase by more that 10% within the next 2 months |
351 | 2009-06-02 | 2009-06-02 | CRobert | 2 | Right | I will make it home before 7pm tonight |
352 | 2009-06-02 | 2009-05-31 | CRobert | 3 | Wrong | We will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu. |
353 | 2009-06-03 | 2010-12-16 | joloughlin | 3 | Wrong | Kelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010 |
354 | 2009-06-04 | 2009-06-08 | Wes | 1 | Right | Third generation iPhone will be announced at WWDC |
355 | 2009-06-04 | 2009-06-08 | Wes | 1 | Right | The release date for Snow Leopard will be announced at WWDC. |
356 | 2009-06-04 | 2009-08-28 | Wes | 1 | Right | Snow Leopard will not feature a redone UI |
357 | 2009-06-04 | 2009-06-06 | CRobert | 1 | Right | That the timing function on prediction book won't be fixed to take account of "local" time in the next 2 days |
361 | 2009-06-10 | 2010-01-01 | Lina | 2 | Wrong | Kevin Rose will have a date with Jennifer Aniston by the end of the year. |
364 | 2009-06-14 | 2009-06-21 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | England will reach the 2009 World Twenty20 semi-finals. |
365 | 2009-06-14 | 2009-06-15 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Magic will win, pushing the Lakers to game 6 tonight. |
366 | 2009-06-15 | 2009-06-15 | CRNewsReports | 2 | Wrong | Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back then gold and silver will move up greatly! |
367 | 2009-06-17 | 2020-01-01 | CRNewsReports© | 2 | Wrong | North Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency. |
368 | 2009-06-17 | 2009-12-15 | CRNewsReports© | 2 | Wrong | Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall. |
369 | 2009-06-22 | 2009-07-06 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | Federer will win Wimbledon 2009 |
370 | 2009-06-22 | 2009-09-22 | TwitterPredicts | 2 | Wrong | World-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week). |
371 | 2009-06-22 | 2009-07-06 | TwitterPredicts | 2 | Wrong | Wimbledon 2009 Men's Final: Federer V Murray |
372 | 2009-06-23 | 2009-12-23 | TwitterPredicts | 2 | Right | Jon & Kate Plus 8 - The show will go on, in some capacity |
373 | 2009-06-23 | 2010-06-23 | TwitterPredicts | 2 | Wrong | Jon & Kate Plus 8 - Jon & Kate will get back together within a year |
374 | 2009-06-23 | 2010-06-23 | Faiste | 1 | Right | L'OM sera-t-il champion de France en 2010 ? |
375 | 2009-06-24 | 2014-06-24 | scott.arbeitman | 6 | Wrong | Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word |
377 | 2009-07-04 | 2009-07-05 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Venus Williams will make it three-in-a-row at the Wimbledon 2009 Women's Final |
378 | 2009-07-04 | 2012-02-01 | TwitterPredicts | 5 | Wrong | Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign |
379 | 2009-07-05 | 2009-07-27 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | Lance Armstrong will finish the Tour de France in the Top 5. |
380 | 2009-07-05 | 2009-07-27 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Fabian Cancellara will finish the 2009 Tour de France in the Top 3 |
381 | 2009-07-05 | 2009-07-05 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Right | St. Kilda will beat Geelong today by fewer than 10 points. |
382 | 2009-07-30 | 2009-08-30 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Michael Schumacher will finish in the points at Valencia 2009 |
383 | 2009-07-30 | 2009-08-23 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Michael Schumacher will beat Raikkonen at Valencia 2009 |
384 | 2009-07-30 | 2009-11-01 | TwitterPredicts | 1 | Wrong | Michael Schumacher will finish the 2009 season in the Top 10 |
385 | 2009-08-14 | 2009-08-21 | Frank | 1 | Right | Will finish rewriting all Amirsys articles by now |
386 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-04 | captainpete | 1 | Withdrawn | Matt will have banished his cold |
387 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-07 | captainpete | 5 | Wrong | we'll be experimenting with meat-spaced project management system |
388 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-07 | captainpete | 5 | Right | we'll have finished refactoring variants into products |
389 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-07 | Wes | 4 | Wrong | Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed |
390 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-06 | Glenn | 5 | Wrong | I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds |
391 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-07 | Tom | 1 | Wrong | Matt will report (@ the standup) that he has done 'admini' at least 3 times this week. |
392 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-06 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday |
393 | 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-06 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand |
394 | 2009-09-07 | 2009-12-01 | Tom | 7 | Wrong | Kando will be live first of december |
397 | 2009-09-07 | 2009-09-11 | Glenn | 7 | Right | I will work Friday |
398 | 2009-09-07 | 2009-09-13 | Matt | 4 | Wrong | I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand |
399 | 2009-09-07 | 2009-09-13 | Matt | 5 | Wrong | At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday |
400 | 2009-09-07 | 2009-09-11 | jon | 3 | Right | I will make two more predictions before the weeks end. |
401 | 2009-09-07 | 2009-09-14 | captainpete | 6 | Wrong | we'll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) |
402 | 2009-09-07 | 2009-09-14 | Wes | 4 | Right | Round 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev. |
403 | 2009-09-08 | 2009-09-09 | jon | 2 | Wrong | I will have AWS servers built and ready for testing. |
404 | 2009-09-08 | 2009-09-12 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | I'll send Katrina some designs I'm happy with this week. |
405 | 2009-09-09 | 2009-09-23 | tansel | 5 | Right | I will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing |
406 | 2009-09-14 | 2009-09-14 | Tom | 2 | Right | Editing an order in plandeliver will be live at the end of today |
407 | 2009-09-14 | 2009-09-21 | Tom | 7 | Wrong | We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week |
408 | 2009-09-14 | 2009-09-21 | captainpete | 5 | Right | I will have written and submitted my Trike profile |
409 | 2009-09-14 | 2009-09-14 | jon | 3 | Right | I will have tests running against aws by the end of today. |
410 | 2009-09-14 | 2009-09-20 | Glenn | 2 | Right | I will have adapted to subconsiously use caps lock instead of backspace (or ctrl-h) by this time next week |
411 | 2009-09-14 | 2009-09-24 | Wes | 6 | Wrong | Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) |
412 | 2009-09-15 | 2009-09-21 | Matt | 3 | Right | My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. |
413 | 2009-09-15 | 2009-09-15 | Glenn | 1 | Right | I have already made predictions in predictionbook |
414 | 2009-09-15 | 2009-09-21 | Glenn | 1 | Right | Padding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened |
415 | 2009-09-21 | 2009-09-26 | Tom | 3 | Wrong | I will be on Oktoberfest saturday |
416 | 2009-09-21 | 2009-09-21 | Tom | 3 | Right | Radiopaedia wont go live tday |
417 | 2009-09-21 | 2009-09-27 | Matt | 3 | Wrong | OB will go live on AWS this week |
418 | 2009-09-21 | 2009-09-27 | Matt | 3 | Wrong | LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week |
419 | 2009-09-21 | 2009-09-24 | captainpete | 3 | Wrong | we will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday |
420 | 2009-09-22 | 2009-11-01 | Frank | 3 | Wrong | Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month |
421 | 2009-09-25 | 2010-11-16 | Frank | 4 | Right | Radiopaedia's visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 |
422 | 2009-09-25 | 2011-01-16 | Frank | 2 | Wrong | I will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010 |
423 | 2009-09-28 | 2009-10-04 | Glenn | 1 | Right | I will spend less than 80% of my time at work being purely meta or purely meta-meta (or any purely meta^n) |
424 | 2009-09-28 | 2009-09-30 | Matt | 1 | Right | G's analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday |
425 | 2009-09-28 | 2009-10-04 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | LW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week |
426 | 2009-09-28 | 2009-10-02 | Wes | 3 | Right | Radiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week |
427 | 2009-09-28 | 2009-09-30 | captainpete | 1 | Right | Pete will have deployed his changes to PlanDeliver by the end of Tuesday |
430 | 2009-10-05 | 2009-10-16 | jon | 1 | Wrong | I will have puppet configured and in use by the end of next week. |
431 | 2009-10-13 | 2009-10-17 | tansel | 2 | Wrong | I will finish the Kudda video upload task by Thursday |
441 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-10-15 | uninverted | 9 | Right | The sun will rise tomorrow morning |
454 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 6 | Right | A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 |
455 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 3 | Right | An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan |
456 | 2009-10-14 | 2011-10-31 | Jack | 17 | Wrong | There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. |
457 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-06-30 | InTrade | 9 | Right | Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 |
458 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-01 | InTrade | 1 | Withdrawn | Donny Osmond and partner will not win Dancing with the Stars |
459 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-11-03 | mjgeddes | 1 | Wrong | 'Alcopop' to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing) |
460 | 2009-10-14 | 2012-09-16 | InTrade | 25 | Right | Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 |
461 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 1 | Right | Mark Sanford will not depart as Governor of South Carolina before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 |
462 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 4 | Wrong | Democratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race |
463 | 2009-10-14 | 2014-01-01 | mjgeddes | 4 | Wrong | Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 |
464 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-10-01 | Jack | 2 | Right | Lebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season. |
465 | 2009-10-14 | 2011-01-01 | max | 24 | Wrong | The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. |
466 | 2009-10-14 | 2012-01-01 | max | 9 | Wrong | Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. |
467 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-11-15 | Jack | 4 | Right | FOX will not pick up the show "Dollhouse" for a third season. |
468 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-10-14 | Jack | 1 | Right | I will fall asleep before 4 am. |
470 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-10-14 | bogdanb | 14 | Right | The sun will not become a nova during this year. |
471 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-10-14 | bogdanb | 26 | Right | General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. |
472 | 2009-10-14 | 2019-10-14 | bogdanb | 16 | Right | Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. |
473 | 2009-10-14 | 2040-01-01 | rwallace | 41 | | A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. |
474 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-07-01 | Drahflow | 7 | Right | Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. |
488 | 2009-10-14 | 2011-01-01 | JamesMiller | 5 | Wrong | By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. |
491 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 1 | Right | Democratic Party Candidate will not win Virginia gubernatorial election |
492 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 1 | Right | US GDP will not decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 (inclusive) |
493 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 3 | Right | Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009 |
494 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 2 | Right | Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000 |
495 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 2 | Right | Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500 |
496 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-12-31 | InTrade | 4 | Wrong | US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% |
497 | 2009-10-14 | 2019-07-01 | Arenamontanus | 6 | Wrong | The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. |
498 | 2009-10-14 | 2019-12-31 | Arenamontanus | 8 | Right | There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. |
499 | 2009-10-14 | 2012-12-31 | Arenamontanus | 6 | Right | There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. |
500 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-10-14 | Arenamontanus | 9 | Wrong | There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. |
501 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-10-14 | Arenamontanus | 3 | Wrong | There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. |
502 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-11-14 | Arenamontanus | 4 | Wrong | There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. |
503 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-10-14 | Matt | 2 | Wrong | Glenn will arrive at Trike before 10am (GMT+10) today. |
504 | 2009-10-14 | 2010-01-01 | pre | 3 | Wrong | Lily Allen will return to twitter before the year end |
505 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-10-28 | kess3r | 7 | Wrong | This site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. |
506 | 2009-10-14 | 2009-10-17 | arthurb | 1 | Wrong | CME's website will confirm that CME rule for electronic trading of ED futures gives indeed priority to official market makers over other users at a given price level. |
515 | 2009-10-15 | 2009-10-29 | jes5199 | 3 | Wrong | I'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks |
516 | 2009-10-15 | 2009-10-17 | jes5199 | 1 | Right | I'll get a full night sleep at least once before the weekend. |
520 | 2009-10-15 | 2010-10-15 | jes5199 | 5 | Wrong | The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. |
521 | 2009-10-15 | 2013-01-01 | jes5199 | 23 | Wrong | The world will end in 2012 |
526 | 2009-10-15 | 2009-12-15 | ChristianKl | 3 | Wrong | PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. |
527 | 2009-10-15 | 2012-12-31 | ChristianKl | 9 | Wrong | There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. |
542 | 2009-10-15 | 2009-10-19 | im | 1 | Wrong | I will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend. |
547 | 2009-10-15 | 2009-10-16 | LauraABJ | 2 | Right | I will make my flight |
548 | 2009-10-15 | 2019-10-15 | kess3r | 11 | Wrong | Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. |
549 | 2009-10-16 | 2010-01-01 | InTrade | 4 | Wrong | One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. |
550 | 2009-10-16 | 2011-01-01 | InTrade | 6 | Wrong | Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. |
551 | 2009-10-16 | 2010-07-01 | InTrade | 10 | Right | Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. |
552 | 2009-10-16 | 2010-07-01 | InTrade | 5 | Right | The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. |
555 | 2009-10-16 | 2018-01-01 | JamesMiller | 6 | Right | One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. |
556 | 2009-10-16 | 2017-01-01 | JamesMiller | 3 | Wrong | One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks. |
557 | 2009-10-16 | 2009-10-16 | Drahflow | 1 | Right | I'll join at least one collegue of mine for lunch today. |
578 | 2009-10-17 | 2012-01-01 | anonym | 10 | Wrong | There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. |
581 | 2009-10-17 | 2009-11-17 | anonym | 1 | Right | I will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009. |
582 | 2009-10-17 | 2009-12-17 | anonym | 1 | Withdrawn | I will make at least 5 predictions each week of the 2nd month since I started using Prediction Book |
583 | 2009-10-17 | 2019-01-01 | anonym | 3 | | I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. |
588 | 2009-10-17 | 2009-10-17 | Matt | 1 | Right | When I turn on my brother's just upgraded macbook, it'll work. |
589 | 2009-10-17 | 2060-12-31 | ChristianKl | 14 | | In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. |
590 | 2009-10-17 | 2070-12-31 | ChristianKl | 25 | | In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. |
595 | 2009-10-17 | 2020-01-01 | komponisto | 33 | Right | No military draft in the United States before 2020. |
601 | 2009-10-17 | 3009-10-17 | TheScholar | 19 | | Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. |
604 | 2009-10-17 | 2010-01-04 | Philo | 1 | Wrong | Chicago Bears will make playoffs. |
605 | 2009-10-17 | 2009-11-01 | anonym | 5 | Right | Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. |
606 | 2009-10-17 | 2010-01-01 | anonym | 2 | Wrong | A significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not. |
607 | 2009-10-17 | 2009-11-01 | anonym | 2 | Wrong | By Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm |
608 | 2009-10-17 | 2009-10-18 | MBlume | 1 | Right | Orchard Supply and Hardware will have a fire extinguisher which they can sell us. |
609 | 2009-10-18 | 2009-10-19 | Larks | 1 | Wrong | I will finish my problem sheets on Calculous of One Variable, do the pre-reading for Logic and Reasoning and Proofs, and at least one of the non-compulsary pure questions, by the end of today. |
610 | 2009-10-18 | 2009-10-23 | Larks | 1 | Wrong | I will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting |
611 | 2009-10-18 | 2010-07-16 | Larks | 1 | Right | I will pass my Mods |
659 | 2009-10-19 | 2009-10-19 | Tobias_M | 3 | Right | The mind body problem will not be solved. |
663 | 2009-10-19 | 2025-01-12 | Jennifer | 14 | | Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. |
664 | 2009-10-19 | 2010-07-02 | freyley | 3 | Wrong | There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform |
665 | 2009-10-19 | 2015-10-19 | freyley | 2 | Right | If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. |
666 | 2009-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | freyley | 3 | Withdrawn | If the Public Option passes, it will cost at least $400/month for the 25-35 bracket to join it by a year after it opens. |
667 | 2009-10-19 | 2012-01-20 | jshiga | 2 | Withdrawn | A gun will discharge during a town hall meeting sometime during Obama's first term. |
671 | 2009-10-20 | 2009-10-24 | freyley | 1 | Wrong | The kittens will still have giardia. |
672 | 2009-10-20 | 2009-10-22 | freyley | 1 | Wrong | Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found. |
673 | 2009-10-20 | 2009-10-22 | freyley | 1 | Wrong | Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found. |
680 | 2009-10-20 | 2010-10-02 | jes5199 | 6 | Wrong | We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. |
685 | 2009-10-21 | 3009-10-21 | TheScholar | 12 | | Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. |
703 | 2009-10-26 | 2009-10-30 | Wes | 2 | Right | The Radiopaedia content cleanup will be finished by the end of the week |
710 | 2009-10-28 | 2009-11-08 | refragable | 1 | Wrong | I will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009. |
711 | 2009-10-28 | 2010-01-01 | refragable | 2 | Wrong | montgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches. |
742 | 2009-11-02 | 2009-11-07 | Matt | 2 | Wrong | Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. |
743 | 2009-11-02 | 2009-12-07 | Frank | 1 | Right | combined iphone app sales for November > 250 |
766 | 2009-11-13 | 2010-11-13 | robo45h | 2 | Right | Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program -- or be overthrown -- rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia). |
767 | 2009-11-14 | 2010-05-01 | philology | 1 | Wrong | I will attend Reed College |
768 | 2009-11-14 | 2010-05-01 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | By 2010-05-01, Oliver will have paid rent for a dwelling place not owned by an immediate family member, grandparent, or first cousin for a period beginning after 2009-11-14, duration longer than 28 days. |
769 | 2009-11-14 | 2010-02-01 | olimay | 2 | Wrong | By 2010-02-01 Oliver will have paid the minimum monthly amount requested as indicated on the Student Loan Corporation statements for 2010-Jan using his own, unborrowed funds. |
776 | 2009-11-14 | 2011-01-01 | olimay | 2 | Right | All my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011. |
777 | 2009-11-14 | 2010-01-01 | olimay | 2 | Wrong | I'll make at least $500 from now until the rest of the year. |
778 | 2009-11-14 | 2010-01-01 | olimay | 1 | Right | I won't directly pay any doctor, doctor's office, or hospital any amount of money for medical services rendered to me for the rest of this year. |
779 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-12-01 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | I'll see Eric Li in person on two separate days before the end of November. |
780 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-12-06 | olimay | 2 | Wrong | I'll publish at least 15 (different) posts on False Symmetry before my birthday. |
781 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-14 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | I'll make it on time (within 7 minutes of 15:00 UTC, by Sprint Mobile network time) to the OB/LW NYC meetup on 2009-11-14. |
782 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-21 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | Claire and I will go to the Met Museum of Art sometime on 2009-11-20. |
783 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-28 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | I will get at least one paid freelance design or programming job in the next two weeks. |
784 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-12-06 | olimay | 2 | Wrong | I will write and publish one complete short story on the internet (public internet) before my birthday. |
785 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-21 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | I will go to bed (and fall asleep) before 5AM every day next week, which I'll say starts Sunday. |
786 | 2009-11-14 | 2012-03-01 | olimay | 2 | Withdrawn | Twitter will report profits for every quarter in 2011. |
787 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-14 | olimay | 4 | Wrong | I'll fall asleep before 5AM today. |
788 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-12-06 | olimay | 3 | Wrong | I will weigh less than 170 lbs on my birthday and in my birthday suit. |
789 | 2009-11-14 | 2010-01-01 | olimay | 1 | Right | I will order food from a restaurant with the word "Chinese" somewhere on its printed menu no fewer than 3 times before the end of this year. |
790 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-14 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | I will be in New York City by noon today. |
793 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-15 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | Paddy will give me or have had prepared a check payable to me by the end of today. |
794 | 2009-11-14 | 2010-01-01 | popojala | 4 | Right | I won't get the swine flu during this year. |
795 | 2009-11-14 | 2009-11-15 | popojala | 1 | Wrong | My mother or father will call me today. |
826 | 2009-11-16 | 2009-11-27 | ledflyd | 1 | Wrong | During the next two weeks, at least half of my experimental data will be unusable for our presentation on Dec. 2, 2009. |
827 | 2009-11-16 | 2009-11-26 | ledflyd | 2 | Right | I will eat Thanksgiving dinner at my Aunt's house AND will not ingest any Turkey. |
828 | 2009-11-16 | 2009-11-25 | ledflyd | 1 | Wrong | There will be no heat in my lab for at least half the days over the next week and a half |
829 | 2009-11-16 | 2010-02-08 | ledflyd | 2 | Withdrawn | I will be fired from or quit my job on or before Feb 8th, 2010 |
830 | 2009-11-16 | 2009-12-31 | ledflyd | 1 | Right | I will drink at least 40 different beers before the end of the year |
868 | 2009-11-18 | 2159-11-18 | Citizen553 | 16 | | Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. |
869 | 2009-11-18 | 2010-02-07 | hoodoo2 | 2 | Right | saints win Superbowl |
881 | 2009-11-22 | 2009-11-28 | Tom | 4 | Right | Our TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week |
882 | 2009-11-22 | 2009-11-27 | jon | 4 | Wrong | I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. |
883 | 2009-11-23 | 2009-11-23 | brownguy22 | 1 | Right | I will finish planning lessons before I go to bed |
887 | 2009-11-25 | 2009-12-03 | blorh | 1 | Right | Integration with a certain financial package will cause pain on K by the end of next week |
888 | 2009-11-25 | 2010-03-15 | Pavitra | 6 | Wrong | The "LessWrong Singularity article" will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ |
889 | 2009-11-30 | 2009-11-30 | dgoodlad | 2 | Wrong | The DSL modem will arrive today |
890 | 2009-11-30 | 2009-12-05 | dgoodlad | 2 | Wrong | I will go to the gym every day this week (Mon-Fri) |
891 | 2009-11-30 | 2009-12-30 | captainpete | 4 | Wrong | We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. |
894 | 2009-11-30 | 2009-12-06 | Tom | 2 | Right | i will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend |
912 | 2009-12-06 | 2009-12-11 | Tom | 1 | Wrong | Tansel will be @ the doctor at least once this week |
913 | 2009-12-06 | 2009-12-12 | dgoodlad | 1 | Wrong | The weather will get hot and sunny again for the weekend (30+ degrees) |
914 | 2009-12-08 | 2019-12-08 | scott.arbeitman | 19 | Wrong | Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. |
917 | 2009-12-12 | 2009-12-12 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | I will make it to the Saturday 2009 Dec 12th OBLW meetup. |
918 | 2009-12-13 | 2009-12-18 | dgoodlad | 2 | Wrong | We will have K open to the 7 friendly dentists by the end of the week |
919 | 2009-12-13 | 2009-12-31 | Tom | 2 | Right | There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( |
920 | 2009-12-13 | 2009-12-19 | Tom | 1 | Wrong | 50% of Trike staff will be drunk @ the christmas party... |
921 | 2009-12-16 | 2009-12-17 | Tom | 1 | Wrong | I will need 6 hours to implement the K feature 1895261 |
922 | 2009-12-21 | 2009-12-23 | Wes | 2 | Right | Plan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break |
923 | 2009-12-22 | 2010-01-01 | Matt | 2 | Wrong | Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day. |
924 | 2009-12-26 | 2010-07-01 | Ben Doherty | 2 | Wrong | I will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st |
925 | 2009-12-27 | 2009-12-28 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | My visitors will not arrive before 12pm |
935 | 2009-12-30 | 2009-12-30 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | more than 4 chavs will get on my bus before I get off |
939 | 2010-01-05 | 2010-06-05 | PotatoDumplings | 1 | Wrong | I get into Harvey Mudd |
940 | 2010-01-05 | 2010-06-05 | PotatoDumplings | 1 | Wrong | I get into CalTech. |
941 | 2010-01-05 | 2010-06-05 | PotatoDumplings | 2 | Wrong | I get into MIT |
975 | 2010-01-15 | 2010-01-22 | KatjaGrace | 1 | Wrong | I will post a blog post on anthropics within one week |
987 | 2010-01-21 | 0139-01-01 | senile | 2 | Wrong | I like smoked gouda |
988 | 2010-01-25 | 2010-03-29 | Frank | 2 | Right | the bub will be a boy |
989 | 2010-01-26 | 2010-04-06 | Jack | 1 | Right | The University of Kentucky Men's basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship. |
1022 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-01-03 | rosy | 1 | Wrong | Melbourne Victory to win A-Legue season 2009-2010 |
1023 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-06-16 | taticorr | 1 | Wrong | Brazil will win the world cup 2010 |
1026 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-02-01 | kimmjaynedowling | 2 | Wrong | I will predict that Gossip Girl will not last 2 more seasons on T.V |
1027 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-02-01 | Holly | 2 | Wrong | Khloe Kardashian is pregnant |
1028 | 2010-02-09 | 2013-01-01 | kimmjaynedowling | 6 | Right | The world will not end in 2012 |
1029 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-02-01 | kimmjaynedowling | 1 | Wrong | A new social networking site will overtake Facebook as the most used website by October 2010 |
1030 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-12-16 | Holly | 2 | Wrong | Nicole Richie for a third baby in 2010 |
1031 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-02-01 | kimmjaynedowling | 1 | Right | Avatar will stay in the top 10 Box Office till March 2010 |
1032 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-02-01 | kimmjaynedowling | 1 | Wrong | Katy Perry and Russel Brand will have a baby boy in October 2010 |
1033 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-12-31 | sharidanbowman | 3 | Right | Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren will seperate within the year |
1034 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-06-16 | Holly | 1 | Right | Posh spice, Victoria Beckham fashion label will hit an all time low in 2010 |
1035 | 2010-02-10 | 2012-02-10 | kimmjaynedowling | 3 | Wrong | Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana |
1036 | 2010-02-10 | 2012-12-30 | sharidanbowman | 6 | Wrong | Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 |
1037 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-01 | rosy | 2 | Wrong | Prediction Book will be the next big thing to hit!!!!!!!!! |
1041 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-01 | kimmjaynedowling | 3 | Wrong | Right after Avatar leaves cinemas, another movie with the title Avatar in it will be released |
1042 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-03-07 | mavmetropolis | 1 | Right | Jeff Bridges will win an Oscar for Best Actor in 2010 |
1043 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | dani | 2 | Right | pretty sure that dani is the greatest. |
1044 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | YOUNGMULLAH | 1 | Right | a tree will fall on my face |
1045 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | jimbob7 | 1 | Wrong | Collingwood will make the grand final this year |
1046 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-01 | kieran90 | 1 | Wrong | Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 |
1047 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-22 | harmonix | 2 | Wrong | Australia will beat West Indies 5-0 in the current one day series |
1048 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-17 | al3xal3x | 1 | Right | pokemon |
1049 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-07-15 | akavc15 | 1 | Wrong | Dwight Howard and Vince carter will lead Orlando Magic back to the NBA finals |
1050 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-01 | al3xal3x | 1 | Wrong | penor |
1051 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-17 | al3xal3x | 1 | Withdrawn | hi (: |
1052 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-12-31 | sammi | 1 | Right | tupac is still alive |
1053 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | YOUNGMULLAH | 1 | Right | my mum will walk in on me |
1054 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-06-16 | widz | 1 | Wrong | LeBron will win MVP |
1055 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-17 | al3xal3x | 1 | Withdrawn | chris lee is chinese |
1056 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-01 | kieran90 | 1 | Wrong | Richmond Tigers will win the next 3 premierships in a row |
1057 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-01 | deaz | 3 | Right | Spain will win the world cup 2010 |
1058 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-09-27 | harmonix | 1 | Wrong | 2010 Grand Final will be Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs |
1059 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-03-07 | wednesday | 1 | Wrong | Carey Mulligan will win Best Actress |
1062 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-01 | dani | 1 | Right | jimmy jam will come out of the closet. |
1065 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-18 | makemulababy | 1 | Wrong | TFU will be roooccckkkinnn on the W/E BBBBBLLAAAAHHHHHHHHHH |
1066 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | al3xal3x | 1 | Right | The world won't end in 2012 |
1067 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | Monec | 1 | Wrong | Marketing will become one of the most popular course to study |
1068 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | deaz | 1 | Wrong | Sushi Monger this lunch |
1071 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-20 | reymartfc | 2 | Right | there will be more disruptions on myki system |
1072 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | imNOTafob | 1 | Right | chuck norris will happen |
1073 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-11 | melmel | 2 | Wrong | American president obama will screw up politically |
1074 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-09-16 | Olyscott | 1 | Wrong | St Kilda will win the premiership in 2010 |
1075 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-06-16 | nicolas | 3 | Right | The Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season |
1076 | 2010-02-10 | 2013-02-10 | melmel | 4 | Wrong | Micheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac |
1077 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | mikeykaka | 2 | Wrong | i will be a millionaire |
1078 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-17 | melmel | 3 | Right | Asian gangs in Melbourne will not cause trouble this weekend |
1079 | 2010-02-10 | 2012-12-31 | Phil | 1 | Right | The world won't end in 2012, unless Chuck Norris says so |
1080 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-07-16 | christian | 2 | Right | Australia vs Greece 2010 World Cup Final |
1081 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | imNOTafob | 2 | Right | Matthew Stokes will not learn from his mistake |
1082 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-11 | melmel | 1 | Wrong | i will have sex tonight |
1083 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | reymartfc | 2 | Right | japanese people will be replaced by their own robots |
1084 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | imNOTafob | 2 | Wrong | Australia will win 5-0 against west indies |
1085 | 2010-02-10 | 2011-01-01 | kassey | 2 | Wrong | Australia will change drinking age to 21 |
1086 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | imNOTafob | 1 | Withdrawn | I WILL BE WATCHING MELMEL HAVE SEX TONIGHT |
1087 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-11 | melmel | 2 | Wrong | is going to have sex with herself cos of phil |
1088 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | Olyscott | 1 | Right | Melmel will get banned from prediction book by the end of the class |
1089 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | reymartfc | 1 | Wrong | whaling aint gonna be prohibited because japanese people will build a large aquarium for them whales to breed |
1090 | 2010-02-10 | 2010-02-10 | vivaladam | 3 | Right | men will continue to forget about valentine's day |
1095 | 2010-02-14 | 2010-01-01 | magic | 1 | Wrong | 35 miles around the coast of Peterhead in Scotland, the sea bed will collapse causing a massive tidal wave which will kill millions of people. It will affect the United Kingdom hugely as well as other countries. The waters will travel down as far as Nor |
1096 | 2010-02-15 | 2010-03-15 | Jack | 3 | Wrong | Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. |
1097 | 2010-02-15 | 2012-12-16 | skinnyasianbitch | 1 | Withdrawn | The World will NOT end in 2012 |
1098 | 2010-02-15 | 2010-07-07 | skinnyasianbitch | 2 | Wrong | Australia Vs Italy in World Cup Final |
1099 | 2010-02-16 | 2010-02-16 | jay_pitman | 1 | Right | andrew stellas will not hit the wall from one side of the room with a paper aeroplane on the full |
1144 | 2010-02-23 | 2010-03-12 | thechadisgreat | 1 | Right | Lot of Australian cricket players will decide to play in this season's Indian Premier League (IPL) |
1145 | 2010-02-23 | 2011-04-16 | thechadisgreat | 2 | Wrong | The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM |
1146 | 2010-02-23 | 2010-07-29 | maash | 2 | Wrong | The Movie Dear John will be this years The Notebook |
1147 | 2010-02-23 | 2010-09-16 | MrHen | 2 | Right | Fringe will be renewed for a third season |
1148 | 2010-02-23 | 2010-07-16 | MrHen | 1 | Wrong | FlashFoward will be renewed for a second season |
1165 | 2010-02-28 | 2010-03-01 | cointelligence | 1 | Right | Stefan Pernar will not appear out of his own navel |
1166 | 2010-02-28 | 2010-03-08 | tiffany | 1 | Wrong | 7th of march will be the best day ever |
1169 | 2010-02-28 | 2011-02-01 | d403 | 3 | Right | If Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game. |
1170 | 2010-02-28 | 2010-03-07 | d403 | 1 | Wrong | Brad Pitt will come out of the closet. |
1171 | 2010-02-28 | 2012-01-02 | d403 | 7 | Wrong | Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 |
1172 | 2010-02-28 | 2011-01-05 | d403 | 1 | Right | The Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010. |
1173 | 2010-02-28 | 2010-03-14 | d403 | 2 | Wrong | Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks |
1174 | 2010-02-28 | 2010-03-14 | d403 | 1 | Wrong | Spencer Tunick will be charged with mass-scale indecent exposure |
1175 | 2010-03-01 | 2010-06-01 | d403 | 1 | Right | Lara Bingle and Michael Clarke will split up in the next three months |
1176 | 2010-03-01 | 2010-03-08 | cointelligence | 1 | Right | Cointelligence will get bored and quit |
1177 | 2010-03-01 | 2010-03-07 | cointelligence | 1 | Right | Sky Burial in the WA |
1180 | 2010-03-03 | 2010-03-01 | DianneD | 3 | Wrong | Twitter will disappear by the end of the year. |
1183 | 2010-03-08 | 2010-03-09 | ledflyd | 1 | Right | I will log onto prediction book again tomorrow |
1184 | 2010-03-08 | 2010-03-13 | mark.p | 1 | Right | Roxanne Parlour's 3rd Birthday this friday night will be messy. |
1185 | 2010-03-09 | 2010-03-09 | mark.p | 1 | Right | chris lee will leave the class to take a phone call in the next 10 minutes.. again. |
1186 | 2010-03-09 | 2010-03-21 | guru | 1 | Right | Melbourne Victory will win the A league championship |
1187 | 2010-03-09 | 2010-03-09 | ledflyd | 1 | Right | i will leave work by 1 o'clock to go eat lunch |
1188 | 2010-03-14 | 2010-09-26 | mktg2010 | 1 | Wrong | Dogs will win the AFL flag this year |
1192 | 2010-03-15 | 2010-09-15 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 1 | Right | Velvet will make a comeback |
1193 | 2010-03-15 | 2010-06-21 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 5 | Right | Purple eye shadow is going to be HOT this season! |
1196 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-27 | AFL_Predictor | 2 | Right | 'Hawks' will defeat 'Demons' in Round 1 |
1197 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-25 | AFL_Predictor | 2 | Wrong | 'Tigers' will defeat 'Blues' in Round 1 |
1198 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-25 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Right | 'Blues' will defeat 'Tigers' in Round 1 |
1199 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-26 | AFL_Predictor | 3 | Right | 'Cats' will defeat 'Bombers' in Round 1 |
1200 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-26 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | 'Bombers' will defeat 'Cats' in Round 1 |
1201 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-27 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | 'Swans' will defeat 'Saints' in Round 1 |
1202 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-27 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Right | 'Saints' will defeat 'Swans' in Round 1 |
1203 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-27 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Right | 'Lions' will defeat 'Eagles' in Round 1 |
1204 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-27 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | 'Eagles' will defeat 'Lions' in Round 1 |
1205 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-28 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | 'Power' will defeat 'Kangaroos' in Round 1 |
1206 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-28 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Right | 'Kangaroos' will defeat 'Power' in Round 1 |
1207 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-28 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | 'Bulldogs' will defeat 'Magpies' in Round 1 |
1208 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-28 | AFL_Predictor | 2 | Right | 'Magpies' will defeat 'Bulldogs' in Round 1 |
1209 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-28 | AFL_Predictor | 1 | Right | 'Dockers' will defeat 'Crows' in Round 1 |
1210 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-28 | AFL_Predictor | 2 | Wrong | 'Crows' will defeat 'Dockers' in Round 1 |
1211 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-21 | mastrinc14 | 3 | Wrong | will bill get the fabled boxo on saturday night? |
1212 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-05-27 | guru | 1 | Right | Hugo is the chosen one because he is the only one who sees Jacob! |
1213 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-17 | monamur | 1 | Wrong | Aaron will become the follower of Jacob and will be the ruler of the island. |
1214 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-03-18 | kristian | 2 | Right | tomorrow will be sunny? |
1215 | 2010-03-17 | 2010-05-16 | thdurp | 2 | Wrong | Kevin Rudd will resign in April 2010. |
1216 | 2010-03-18 | 2011-03-18 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 2 | Wrong | Tavi is actually JT Leroy's newest incarnation. |
1217 | 2010-03-18 | 2010-04-16 | al3xal3x | 2 | Wrong | George Lucas is my father! |
1218 | 2010-03-18 | 2010-05-16 | NATASHA | 2 | Right | i will end up going on a holiday |
1221 | 2010-03-20 | 2010-03-27 | ally | 1 | Right | i predict i won't use this site again. |
1222 | 2010-03-20 | 2010-12-31 | Chris31 | 2 | Right | Muse will tour Australia again by the end of the year |
1223 | 2010-03-20 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Right | Chelsea will win the English Premier League |
1224 | 2010-03-20 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | Manchester United will win the English Premier league |
1225 | 2010-03-20 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | Arsenal will win the English Premierleague |
1226 | 2010-03-21 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | Manchester City will make the Champions League |
1227 | 2010-03-21 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | Liverpool will make the Champions League |
1228 | 2010-03-21 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Right | Tottenham will make the Champions League |
1229 | 2010-03-21 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | Aston Villa will make the Champions League |
1230 | 2010-03-21 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 3 | Right | Portsmouth, Hull and Burnley to be relegated |
1231 | 2010-03-21 | 2010-06-23 | predicted | 7 | Wrong | The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. |
1232 | 2010-03-21 | 2010-03-22 | wednesday | 1 | Right | My train home will be delayed by more than 3 minutes today. |
1233 | 2010-03-22 | 2011-01-31 | predicted | 2 | Right | Health Care Bill will be passed in the United States |
1234 | 2010-03-22 | 2010-06-18 | kassey | 3 | Wrong | Paul Manoukian will get facebook. |
1235 | 2010-03-22 | 2010-06-16 | Olivia | 2 | Wrong | That one of my best friends will get married in june this year! |
1236 | 2010-03-22 | 2010-05-22 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 1 | Right | Tommy Ton of Jac & Jil blog will head down under for Rosemount Australian Fashion Week. |
1237 | 2010-03-22 | 2010-05-22 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 1 | Wrong | Blogger Susie Bubble of Style Bubble is headed to Sydney for fashion week in May. |
1238 | 2010-03-22 | 2015-03-22 | alicewilson | 4 | Wrong | Lady Gaga will dominate the pop music industry for the next 5 years |
1239 | 2010-03-22 | 2010-03-29 | p1 | 2 | Wrong | Alonso will win the Australian F1 Grand Prix |
1240 | 2010-03-23 | 2010-09-13 | tjross | 2 | Wrong | Iowa State University will beat University of Iowa in football next season |
1241 | 2010-03-23 | 2010-12-31 | tjross | 7 | Right | There will be another major natural disaster before the years over |
1242 | 2010-03-23 | 2010-03-30 | mavmetropolis | 2 | Right | Mav will find out what the name of the gorgeous red head is...you know, the one who works at Gloria Jeans in the M:Town. Morning coffee...it's the highlight of my day ;) |
1243 | 2010-03-23 | 2012-11-06 | tjross | 17 | Right | Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) |
1244 | 2010-03-23 | 2012-12-31 | tjross | 8 | Wrong | USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 |
1245 | 2010-03-23 | 2020-12-31 | tjross | 20 | | United States will invade Australia and take over |
1246 | 2010-03-23 | 2010-08-23 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 3 | Wrong | We'll be seeing a lot of fur vests this winter. |
1249 | 2010-03-24 | 2010-09-16 | mktg2010 | 1 | Wrong | bombers will finish in top 8 this season |
1250 | 2010-03-24 | 2010-12-30 | Marz | 2 | Right | The share price of gold is going to increase by 5% by the end of 2010. |
1251 | 2010-03-24 | 2010-04-27 | Marz | 1 | Right | Nicole will win Americans next top model, petites version. |
1252 | 2010-03-24 | 2010-04-10 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Right | Aston Villa will narrowly lose to Chelsea in the FA cup Semi final |
1253 | 2010-03-24 | 2010-04-11 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Right | Portsmouth will defeat Tottenham in the FA Cup semi-final |
1256 | 2010-03-25 | 2010-05-09 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Right | Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham will make up the top 4 of the league |
1259 | 2010-03-28 | 2010-07-01 | melissasajeh | 1 | Withdrawn | Will Eclipse be as good as Twilight and New Moon? Will Bella choose friendship with werewolf Jacob or vampire Edward? |
1260 | 2010-03-28 | 2010-07-01 | melissasajeh | 1 | Wrong | Eclipse will be as good as Twilight and New Moon and Bella will choose Edward! |
1261 | 2010-03-29 | 2010-04-30 | melissasajeh | 4 | Right | Iron Man 2 will be the top 10 movie in 2010 |
1262 | 2010-03-29 | 2010-07-01 | melissasajeh | 1 | Wrong | Aaron will get back to the island |
1265 | 2010-03-31 | 2010-04-12 | bubble | 1 | Right | the easter holidays will go super fast!! |
1266 | 2010-03-31 | 2010-04-01 | urban | 1 | Wrong | i will fool people tomorrow!! |
1267 | 2010-03-31 | 2010-04-30 | mela23 | 1 | Wrong | YES!, THE ALBUM WILL BE A HIT! |
1268 | 2010-04-01 | 2010-04-01 | saralehman | 2 | Wrong | Pamela Anderson willl win Dancing with the stars! |
1269 | 2010-04-02 | 2010-04-02 | james | 1 | Wrong | They will never cure cancer in our lifetimes. |
1274 | 2010-04-05 | 2010-05-11 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | reach 500 facebook fans by may 10st |
1275 | 2010-04-09 | 2010-04-30 | melly | 1 | Wrong | Ivy will win so you think you can dance 2010 |
1276 | 2010-04-12 | 2010-06-01 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 1 | Wrong | Winter warmth will be Thigh- High this season |
1279 | 2010-04-13 | 2010-08-13 | Marz | 5 | Wrong | Interest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months. |
1280 | 2010-04-18 | 2010-04-26 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | Sunday traffic next week with be >2000 |
1281 | 2010-04-18 | 2011-07-02 | Frank | 5 | Right | Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months |
1282 | 2010-04-18 | 2010-04-19 | Frank | 1 | Right | Colin will not come over tonight |
1283 | 2010-04-19 | 2010-04-02 | predicted | 2 | Right | Travel to Europe will be delayed for a week due to Volcanic ash. |
1284 | 2010-04-19 | 2010-05-20 | akavc15 | 2 | Wrong | Mohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean |
1285 | 2010-04-19 | 2010-10-01 | chrisknows | 1 | Wrong | Blackburn will win the Eastern Footy League premiership |
1286 | 2010-04-19 | 2010-04-26 | chrisknows | 1 | Wrong | Channel 9's pathetic tribute to murdered murderer Carl Williams will rate obscenely well. |
1287 | 2010-04-21 | 2010-06-01 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 1 | Wrong | Bright and tight will light up this winter. |
1288 | 2010-04-21 | 2010-05-08 | predicted | 3 | Right | Shogun Rua will defeat Lyoto Machida at UFC 113 |
1289 | 2010-04-21 | 2011-07-02 | dusty.brouwer | 1 | Right | I predict the car that James Bond will drive in the next movie will not be an aston martin. |
1290 | 2010-04-22 | 2010-06-02 | Frank | 1 | Right | Will crack 250,000 pageviews in may |
1323 | 2010-04-26 | 2010-05-03 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | Sunday 2nd may will have more than 2000 visitors |
1324 | 2010-05-01 | 2010-05-10 | mario1 | 2 | Wrong | In a few weeks, Dota Allstars 6.67c Ai will be released... |
1325 | 2010-05-03 | 2010-06-01 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 1 | Wrong | Pin it |
1326 | 2010-05-03 | 2010-05-16 | mktg2010 | 1 | Right | Chelsea win will the cup |
1327 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-06-01 | GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide | 2 | Wrong | Military style big bang this winter |
1328 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-06-12 | World_Cup_predictor | 2 | Wrong | South Africa will lose to Mexico in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup |
1329 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-06-12 | World_Cup_predictor | 2 | Wrong | France will defeat Uruguay |
1330 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-06-13 | World_Cup_predictor | 1 | Right | Argentina will defeat Nigeria |
1331 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-06-13 | World_Cup_predictor | 2 | Wrong | Greece will Defeat Korea |
1332 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-06-13 | World_Cup_predictor | 1 | Wrong | England will defeat USA |
1333 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-06-13 | World_Cup_predictor | 1 | Right | Slovenia will defeat Algeria |
1334 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-12-04 | DianneD | 3 | Right | Justin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year. |
1337 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-05-04 | musicpredictor | 1 | Right | Slashs new album will flop! |
1338 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-05-04 | musicpredictor | 1 | Right | Muse will come back down under to do another Australian tour before the end of the year |
1339 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-05-04 | musicpredictor | 1 | Wrong | Gorillaz new album will go platinum |
1340 | 2010-05-04 | 2010-05-04 | musicpredictor | 1 | Wrong | The killers front man will debut a solo album |
1341 | 2010-05-05 | 2010-05-05 | ravneetrox | 1 | Right | Will Jay ever make it to the candy mountain? |
1342 | 2010-05-05 | 2010-05-10 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | Chelsea will drop points against Wigan and fail to win the EPL |
1343 | 2010-05-05 | 2010-05-10 | EPL_Predictor | 1 | Wrong | Manchester United will defeat Stoke and lift the EPL again |
1344 | 2010-05-06 | 2010-12-16 | ravneetrox | 1 | Wrong | Will Karishma find a boyfriend by the end of this year |
1345 | 2010-05-06 | 2020-05-06 | ravneetrox | 10 | Wrong | The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 |
1346 | 2010-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | ravneetrox | 1 | Wrong | Maash will be married by the age of 28 with one child |
1347 | 2010-05-06 | 2010-06-16 | ravneetrox | 1 | Right | India will win the T20 world cup |
1348 | 2010-05-06 | 2030-05-06 | ravneetrox | 3 | Wrong | Bin Laden and USA are working together |
1349 | 2010-05-09 | 2010-06-16 | World_Cup_predictor | 1 | Right | Chile will defeat Honduras |
1350 | 2010-05-11 | 2015-12-31 | dakyne | 5 | Wrong | The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. |
1351 | 2010-05-11 | 2010-12-31 | dakyne | 5 | Wrong | Arena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. |
1352 | 2010-05-11 | 2010-12-31 | dakyne | 5 | Right | The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. |
1353 | 2010-05-11 | 2010-12-31 | dakyne | 4 | Right | California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. |
1354 | 2010-05-11 | 2010-09-26 | dusty.brouwer | 2 | Wrong | I predict Collingwood will win the AFL Grand final in 2010. |
1355 | 2010-05-12 | 2010-05-12 | f2 | 1 | Right | max brenner will make the best waflees today |
1365 | 2010-05-30 | 2010-06-01 | Frank | 1 | Wrong | the chick from big is not the blond chick from weeds |
1366 | 2010-06-01 | 2010-09-01 | Pie4Life | 1 | Right | Collingwood will finish top 4 |
1367 | 2010-06-01 | 2010-09-01 | Pie4Life | 2 | Wrong | Richmond will win the 2010 AFL wooden spoon |
1368 | 2010-06-01 | 2010-06-25 | Pie4Life | 2 | Wrong | Australia will at least make the quarter finals of the 2010 World Cup |
1369 | 2010-06-03 | 2010-06-05 | wednesday | 2 | Wrong | Sam Stosur will win the French Open! |
1370 | 2010-06-04 | 2010-06-13 | maskath@hotmail.com | 3 | Withdrawn | Lakers will win NBA Finals |
1371 | 2010-06-04 | 2010-12-31 | maskath@hotmail.com | 3 | Right | Another beloved celebrity will die before the year is over |
1375 | 2010-06-11 | 2010-12-16 | Matt Newport | 3 | Right | The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. |
1376 | 2010-06-13 | 2017-06-01 | Houshalter | 5 | Right | Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. |
1377 | 2010-06-13 | 2012-12-26 | Houshalter | 28 | Right | The world will not end December 25, 2012. |
1378 | 2010-06-19 | 2010-06-19 | maskath@hotmail.com | 1 | Right | Lakers will win NBA Finals |
1383 | 2010-06-22 | 2010-06-22 | vhistory | 1 | Right | South Africa will beat France |
1386 | 2010-06-27 | 2011-01-16 | Frank | 2 | Right | Julia Gillard will win the next federal election. |
1389 | 2010-07-07 | 2010-07-09 | Jack | 1 | Wrong | Lebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season. |
1416 | 2010-07-29 | 2029-01-01 | gwern | 14 | | By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test. |
1417 | 2010-07-29 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 12 | | “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” |
1418 | 2010-07-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect.” |
1419 | 2010-07-29 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | “By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.” |
1420 | 2010-07-29 | 2150-01-01 | gwern | 14 | | "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." |
1421 | 2010-07-29 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Right | "By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature." |
1422 | 2010-07-29 | 2022-12-31 | gwern | 5 | | "In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation." |
1423 | 2010-07-29 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | "By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists." |
1424 | 2010-07-29 | 2015-06-30 | gwern | 5 | Right | “Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” |
1425 | 2010-07-29 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” |
1426 | 2010-07-29 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA |
1427 | 2010-07-29 | 2012-01-31 | gwern | 6 | Right | “The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” |
1428 | 2010-07-29 | 2012-09-10 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees." |
1429 | 2010-07-29 | 2108-12-31 | gwern | 7 | | "In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions." |
1430 | 2010-07-29 | 2018-01-31 | gwern | 4 | Right | "Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses." |
1431 | 2010-07-29 | 2020-12-31 | gwern | 5 | | "By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as |
1432 | 2010-07-29 | 2018-12-31 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | “Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” |
1433 | 2010-07-29 | 2025-12-07 | gwern | 9 | | "The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public." |
1439 | 2010-07-30 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” |
1442 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | “That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” |
1443 | 2010-07-30 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.” |
1444 | 2010-07-30 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | “By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.” |
1445 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | “By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel - at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” |
1446 | 2010-07-30 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | “Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” |
1447 | 2010-07-30 | 2024-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | “That by 2024 "artificial" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” |
1448 | 2010-07-30 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” |
1449 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | “By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.” |
1450 | 2010-07-30 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” |
1451 | 2010-07-30 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | “By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine |
1452 | 2010-07-30 | 2052-01-01 | gwern | 11 | | “Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” |
1453 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Right | “By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” |
1454 | 2010-07-30 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” |
1455 | 2010-07-30 | 2070-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.” |
1456 | 2010-07-30 | 2150-01-01 | gwern | 11 | | “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” |
1457 | 2010-07-30 | 2025-12-31 | gwern | 2 | | “Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory - as described in Marshall McLuhan's "Tetrad" mod |
1458 | 2010-07-30 | 2150-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. |
1459 | 2010-07-30 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | “By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” |
1460 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | “By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or "field propulsion-type" aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” |
1461 | 2010-07-30 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Right | “Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not |
1462 | 2010-07-30 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | “By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” |
1463 | 2010-07-30 | 2103-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.” |
1464 | 2010-07-30 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | “By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” |
1465 | 2010-07-30 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.” |
1466 | 2010-07-30 | 2060-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.” |
1467 | 2010-07-30 | 2085-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | “China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” |
1468 | 2010-07-30 | 2103-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” |
1469 | 2010-07-30 | 2063-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.” |
1470 | 2010-07-30 | 2203-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | “Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” |
1471 | 2010-07-30 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” |
1472 | 2010-07-30 | 2018-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."” |
1473 | 2010-07-30 | 2104-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | “The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” |
1474 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | “By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” |
1475 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | “By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.” |
1476 | 2010-07-30 | 2024-12-31 | gwern | 3 | | “US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024.” |
1477 | 2010-07-30 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | “That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane |
1478 | 2010-07-30 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | “By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” |
1481 | 2010-07-30 | 2025-12-31 | gwern | 3 | | “I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d |
1483 | 2010-07-30 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” |
1484 | 2010-07-30 | 2101-12-31 | gwern | 3 | | “I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental |
1485 | 2010-07-30 | 2101-12-31 | gwern | 4 | | "In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius." |
1486 | 2010-07-30 | 2010-10-28 | dakyne | 2 | Right | Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed). |
1487 | 2010-07-31 | 2015-12-31 | gwern | 2 | | “The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.” |
1488 | 2010-07-31 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of U |
1489 | 2010-07-31 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | “I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo |
1490 | 2010-07-31 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside |
1491 | 2010-07-31 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI.” |
1492 | 2010-07-31 | 2024-12-31 | gwern | 8 | | “By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” |
1493 | 2010-07-31 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | “By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” |
1494 | 2010-07-31 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” |
1495 | 2010-07-31 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 13 | | “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” |
1496 | 2010-07-31 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | “An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.” |
1497 | 2010-07-31 | 2012-09-30 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | “Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” |
1498 | 2010-08-01 | 2036-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.” |
1499 | 2010-08-01 | 2056-12-31 | gwern | 4 | | “Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years” |
1500 | 2010-08-01 | 2016-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | “Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” |
1501 | 2010-08-01 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | “By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...” |
1502 | 2010-08-01 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | “There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010” |
1503 | 2010-08-01 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | “By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” |
1504 | 2010-08-01 | 2319-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.” |
1505 | 2010-08-01 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | “I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” |
1506 | 2010-08-01 | 2015-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.” |
1507 | 2010-08-01 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | “By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.” |
1508 | 2010-08-01 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | “By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” |
1509 | 2010-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | “By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the "Second" or "New Renaissance."” |
1510 | 2010-08-02 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | “China will break apart by 2030” |
1511 | 2010-08-02 | 2018-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and "Western World"” |
1512 | 2010-08-02 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 24 | | “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” |
1513 | 2010-08-02 | 2036-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d |
1514 | 2010-08-02 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | “No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and c |
1515 | 2010-08-02 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 13 | | China will land a man on Mars by 2050. |
1516 | 2010-08-02 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | “Immortal mice by 2015” |
1517 | 2010-08-02 | 2061-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo |
1518 | 2010-08-02 | 2023-12-31 | gwern | 5 | | “Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” |
1519 | 2010-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | “Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” |
1520 | 2010-08-02 | 2010-11-09 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.” |
1521 | 2010-08-02 | 2023-12-31 | gwern | 4 | | “Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” |
1522 | 2010-08-02 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 22 | | “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” |
1523 | 2010-08-02 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | “In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.” |
1524 | 2010-08-02 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | “By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” |
1525 | 2010-08-02 | 2030-06-08 | gwern | 5 | | “On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called "Hello, world!", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.” |
1526 | 2010-08-02 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 12 | | “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” |
1527 | 2010-08-02 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | “Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades” |
1528 | 2010-08-02 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.” |
1529 | 2010-08-02 | 2011-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | “By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” --Jonathan M. Rothberg |
1530 | 2010-08-02 | 2016-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.” |
1531 | 2010-08-02 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | “I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” |
1532 | 2010-08-02 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | “By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” |
1533 | 2010-08-02 | 2050-12-31 | gwern | 11 | | “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” |
1534 | 2010-08-02 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | “By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” |
1535 | 2010-08-02 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | “By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” |
1536 | 2010-08-02 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” |
1537 | 2010-08-02 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | “By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” |
1538 | 2010-08-02 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | “By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” |
1539 | 2010-08-02 | 2023-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | “advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” |
1540 | 2010-08-02 | 2013-11-06 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | “The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.” |
1541 | 2010-08-02 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | “The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” |
1542 | 2010-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” |
1543 | 2010-08-02 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | “A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” |
1544 | 2010-08-02 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | “There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.” |
1545 | 2010-08-02 | 2049-12-31 | gwern | 4 | | “Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.” |
1546 | 2010-08-02 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | “By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime.” |
1547 | 2010-08-02 | 2025-12-31 | gwern | 7 | | “The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” |
1548 | 2010-08-02 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | “California state government will dissolve in default.” |
1549 | 2010-08-02 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other |
1550 | 2010-08-02 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | “By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” |
1551 | 2010-08-02 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | “By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.” |
1552 | 2010-08-02 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.” |
1553 | 2010-08-02 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | “By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” |
1554 | 2010-08-02 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | “Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” |
1555 | 2010-08-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | “By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8 |
1556 | 2010-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). |
1557 | 2010-08-03 | 2016-03-07 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years." --Jeremy Grantham |
1558 | 2010-08-03 | 2011-06-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy." --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita |
1559 | 2010-08-03 | 2011-07-07 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months" --Beth Lynn Eicher |
1560 | 2010-08-03 | 2017-08-07 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | "I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years." --Jason Kottke |
1561 | 2010-08-03 | 2010-12-28 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "I've got to think this device [iPad] would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin." --Michael Scalisi |
1562 | 2010-08-03 | 2010-08-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "10 startups i think will be acquired soon: evernote, posterous/tumblr, twitter, animoto, tweetdeck/seesmic, stardoll, etsy, apture. agree?" --Ouriel Odhayon |
1563 | 2010-08-03 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | "Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year" --Robert Prechter |
1564 | 2010-08-03 | 2015-06-15 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years." --Nouriel Roubini |
1565 | 2010-08-03 | 2011-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state" |
1566 | 2010-08-03 | 2014-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics." |
1567 | 2010-08-04 | 2012-06-06 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | "The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” --Ted Ritter |
1568 | 2010-08-04 | 2012-03-02 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010." --Nate Silver |
1569 | 2010-08-04 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "The Mediterranean bluefin breeding population will disappear by 2012 under the current fishing regime." --Sergi Tudela |
1570 | 2010-08-04 | 2014-06-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years." --James Howard Kunstler |
1571 | 2010-08-04 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "the Apple tablet will be a flop next year" --Scott Moritz |
1572 | 2010-08-04 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | "We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem." --Peter Diamandis |
1573 | 2010-08-04 | 2014-05-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Regarding access to the Internet: "Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right."" --Cory Doctorow |
1574 | 2010-08-04 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | Microsoft will release a variant of the XBox 360 bundled with Natal next Fall. |
1575 | 2010-08-04 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market." |
1576 | 2010-08-05 | 2017-04-18 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. "I don't think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years' time."" --Tyler Cowen |
1577 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "The Budget car rental brand will be eliminated in favor of Avis" --Douglas A. McIntyre |
1578 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | "GM will close the Saturn brand" --Douglas A. McIntyre |
1579 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Esquire magazine will fold" --Douglas A. McIntyre |
1580 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Gap will close Old Navy" --Douglas A. McIntyre |
1581 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Architectural Digest Magazine will fold" --Douglas A. McIntyre |
1582 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Chrysler brand will be discontinued, Jeep & Dodge will remain" --Douglas McIntyre |
1583 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | "United Airlines will merge with a competitor and the brand will disappear" --Douglas A. McIntyre |
1584 | 2010-08-05 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012." (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) --Seth Godin |
1585 | 2010-08-05 | 2011-05-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone." --Michael Wolff |
1586 | 2010-08-05 | 2010-10-21 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now." --Michael Wolff |
1587 | 2010-08-07 | 2015-08-06 | gwern | 4 | Right | “Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” --Bill Gates |
1588 | 2010-08-09 | 2015-08-09 | gwern | 6 | Right | Vinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. |
1589 | 2010-08-09 | 2011-01-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "[Peter] Schiff sees a multiyear recession ahead marked by rampant inflation, a steadily weakening dollar, soaring commodities prices, slumping U.S. stock indexes, and falling wages." |
1590 | 2010-08-09 | 2011-02-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Moneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmadinejad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential. --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita |
1591 | 2010-08-09 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Right | Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita |
1592 | 2010-08-09 | 2012-12-17 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up." --Nate Silver |
1593 | 2010-08-09 | 2011-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | By 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon. --Bruce Buena de Mesquita |
1594 | 2010-08-09 | 2013-03-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don't see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years." --Bill Gary |
1595 | 2010-08-09 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. --Clive Matthew-Wilson |
1596 | 2010-08-09 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession." --Clive Matthew-Wilson |
1599 | 2010-08-10 | 2011-03-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share." --Steve Ballmer |
1600 | 2010-08-10 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail. --Nate Silver |
1601 | 2010-08-10 | 2012-01-31 | gwern | 7 | Withdrawn | The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. --Nate Silver |
1602 | 2010-08-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. --Gerald Celente |
1603 | 2010-08-10 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 3-D is just a fad: "It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache." |
1604 | 2010-08-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012." --Jeff Vail |
1605 | 2010-08-10 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | “It’s my prediction that by 2015, we will have an LTE network that will cover most of the important places in the world and that will give us the coverage and capacity we need” --Anssi Vanjoki |
1606 | 2010-08-10 | 2014-04-04 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | “In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” --Vinod Khosla |
1607 | 2010-08-10 | 2011-11-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | The Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%. |
1608 | 2010-08-10 | 2013-01-01 | blanu | 3 | Right | Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. |
1609 | 2010-08-11 | 2013-03-28 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | loan and securities losses in the U.S. will reach $3.6 trillion. --Nouriel Roubini |
1610 | 2010-08-11 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "We're forecasting real GDP growth of 3.2 percent for 2010 as a whole, and more robust growth in 2011, 2012 and 2013." --Christie Romer |
1611 | 2010-08-11 | 2011-04-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent." --Anders Borg |
1612 | 2010-08-11 | 2014-04-01 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | "the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years." --Al Gore |
1613 | 2010-08-11 | 2011-11-20 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) ... in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price." --Jakob Nielsen |
1614 | 2010-08-11 | 2010-10-11 | dakyne | 1 | Wrong | ALXA's Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010. |
1615 | 2010-08-11 | 2011-03-06 | dakyne | 1 | Wrong | UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament. |
1616 | 2010-08-11 | 2010-12-10 | dakyne | 1 | Wrong | UCSB men's soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer's final four. |
1617 | 2010-08-11 | 2011-12-31 | hmadison | 3 | Wrong | The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011. |
1618 | 2010-08-12 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade |
1619 | 2010-08-12 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
1620 | 2010-08-12 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
1621 | 2010-08-12 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
1622 | 2010-08-12 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade |
1623 | 2010-08-12 | 2015-12-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | "US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Boeing" --Intrade |
1624 | 2010-08-12 | 2015-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Northrop Grumman and/or Airbus" --Intrade |
1625 | 2010-08-12 | 2015-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to any other company or companies" --Intrade |
1626 | 2010-08-12 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade |
1627 | 2010-08-12 | 2011-06-20 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade |
1628 | 2010-08-12 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade |
1629 | 2010-08-12 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade |
1630 | 2010-08-12 | 2011-06-30 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011" --Intrade |
1631 | 2010-08-12 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
1632 | 2010-08-12 | 2011-06-16 | makemoniesonline | 1 | Right | The Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA championship. |
1640 | 2010-08-13 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. --Smithers & Co. |
1641 | 2010-08-13 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less." --Farhad Manjoo |
1642 | 2010-08-13 | 2011-07-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "...a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July." --Jeffrey Goldberg |
1643 | 2010-08-15 | 2011-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | "Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record" --Intrade |
1644 | 2010-08-15 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record" --Intrade |
1645 | 2010-08-15 | 2011-01-02 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade |
1646 | 2010-08-15 | 2012-01-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade |
1647 | 2010-08-15 | 2013-01-02 | gwern | 2 | Right | "Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade |
1648 | 2010-08-15 | 2014-01-02 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade |
1649 | 2010-08-15 | 2015-01-02 | gwern | 3 | Right | "Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade |
1650 | 2010-08-15 | 2011-01-03 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Global Average Temperature for 2010 to be higher than for 2009" --Intrade |
1651 | 2010-08-15 | 2011-01-01 | Frank | 2 | Right | r.org will reach 100,000 pageviews a week at least once before the end of 2010 |
1652 | 2010-08-16 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | "Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009" --Intrade |
1653 | 2010-08-16 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | "Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009" --Intrade |
1654 | 2010-08-16 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more" --Intrade |
1655 | 2010-08-16 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade |
1656 | 2010-08-16 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Global Temperature Anomaly for Aug 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade |
1657 | 2010-08-16 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade |
1661 | 2010-08-17 | 2011-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Carr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven. |
1662 | 2010-08-17 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | "the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth." --Michael Vassar |
1663 | 2010-08-17 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth." --W.H. Pearson |
1664 | 2010-08-17 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism." --W.H. Pearson |
1665 | 2010-08-18 | 2020-12-31 | gwern | 5 | | "in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl |
1666 | 2010-08-18 | 2043-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. --J.B.S. Haldane |
1667 | 2010-08-18 | 2018-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | US health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. --orthonormal |
1668 | 2010-08-18 | 2018-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | US health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 --orthonormal |
1669 | 2010-08-18 | 2018-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | US health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 --orthonormal |
1670 | 2010-08-18 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | "I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years." --Richard Kennaway |
1671 | 2010-08-18 | 2020-01-01 | Richard_Kennaway | 12 | Right | A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. |
1672 | 2010-08-19 | 2040-08-19 | jande417 | 3 | | Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 |
1676 | 2010-08-19 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | "By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected." --Kevin |
1677 | 2010-08-19 | 2014-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. |
1680 | 2010-08-20 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US" --Jack |
1681 | 2010-08-20 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. --Jack |
1682 | 2010-08-20 | 2012-11-20 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | Assuming a 2nd Obama term, "The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)" --Jack |
1683 | 2010-08-20 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)" --Jack |
1684 | 2010-08-20 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state" --Jack |
1685 | 2010-08-20 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. |
1686 | 2010-08-20 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. --Robert Richardson |
1687 | 2010-08-20 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015" --CISFHR |
1688 | 2010-08-20 | 2020-08-20 | gavinl | 2 | | The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010 |
1689 | 2010-08-21 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | "Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence" --James Miller |
1690 | 2010-08-21 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | "Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence" --James Miller |
1691 | 2010-08-21 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 20 | Wrong | "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller |
1692 | 2010-08-21 | 2017-01-20 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security" --James Miller |
1693 | 2010-08-21 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | "Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year" --James Miller |
1694 | 2010-08-21 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel" --James Miller |
1695 | 2010-08-21 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | "Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout" --James Miller |
1696 | 2010-08-21 | 2016-11-04 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | "All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen |
1699 | 2010-08-23 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon" -dfranke |
1700 | 2010-08-23 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon" --dfranke |
1701 | 2010-08-23 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples" --dfranke |
1702 | 2010-08-23 | 2010-09-17 | Mo_Money_2make | 2 | Wrong | ARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval |
1703 | 2010-08-23 | 2010-10-23 | Mo_Money_2make | 3 | Wrong | ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010 |
1704 | 2010-08-23 | 2010-11-01 | Mo_Money_2make | 2 | Wrong | MNKD will sign a partner for AFREZZA by November 1, 2010 |
1705 | 2010-08-23 | 2011-01-16 | Mo_Money_2make | 3 | Wrong | MNKD's stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011 |
1706 | 2010-08-23 | 2011-01-16 | Mo_Money_2make | 3 | Wrong | ARNA's stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011 |
1707 | 2010-08-23 | 2010-11-01 | Mo_Money_2make | 1 | Wrong | Atlanta Braves will make it to the NLCS. |
1708 | 2010-08-24 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | "At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade." --blogospheroid |
1709 | 2010-08-25 | 2020-12-31 | gwern | 3 | | "there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject" --magfrump |
1710 | 2010-08-25 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | "sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade" |
1711 | 2010-08-25 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 5 | Right | "I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year" --magfrump |
1712 | 2010-08-25 | 2020-12-31 | gwern | 3 | | "I will continue to post on LW at least once a month...in 2020" --magfrump |
1713 | 2010-08-26 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | A state will try to secede from the US. --Nancy Lebovitz |
1714 | 2010-08-26 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. --Nancy Lebovitz |
1715 | 2010-08-26 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. --Nancy Lebovitz |
1716 | 2010-08-26 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. --Nancy Lebovitz |
1717 | 2010-08-26 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | Home sous-vide cookers <$200. --Nancy Lebovitz |
1718 | 2010-08-26 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. --Nancy Lebovitz |
1719 | 2010-08-26 | 2010-05-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Lucas Sloan will be admitted into UC Berkeley. |
1720 | 2010-08-26 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011." --Phil Goetz |
1727 | 2010-08-27 | 2014-12-16 | kochikvp | 7 | Wrong | The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. |
1730 | 2010-08-28 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Hyperinflation by 2011 --Gonzalo Lira |
1731 | 2010-08-28 | 2020-12-31 | gwern | 5 | | “By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to |
1732 | 2010-08-29 | 2026-06-01 | gwern | 4 | | By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. |
1733 | 2010-08-30 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | “By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin |
1734 | 2010-08-30 | 2010-09-18 | Matt | 2 | Wrong | Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%] |
1735 | 2010-08-30 | 2010-10-02 | Matt | 3 | Right | Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. |
1736 | 2010-08-30 | 2013-12-16 | kochikvp | 6 | Wrong | An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. |
1737 | 2010-09-01 | 2012-11-07 | SilentWarrior | 5 | Right | Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012. |
1738 | 2010-09-02 | 2010-10-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | A 2nd US retailer will receive a letter from the FDA ordering them to cease selling piracetam products. |
1744 | 2010-09-06 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
1745 | 2010-09-06 | 2014-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Right | "The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014" --Intrade |
1753 | 2010-09-11 | 2010-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade |
1754 | 2010-09-11 | 2011-06-30 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011" --Intrade |
1755 | 2010-09-11 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
1761 | 2010-09-18 | 2050-01-01 | TheScholar | 4 | | Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 |
1762 | 2010-09-18 | 2011-09-18 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year. |
1763 | 2010-09-18 | 2012-09-18 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years. |
1776 | 2010-09-22 | 2025-09-22 | gwern | 4 | | PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. |
1784 | 2010-09-24 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | _Subversion_ will not be released by 2011. |
1785 | 2010-09-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | _Subversion_ will not be released by 2013. |
1786 | 2010-09-27 | 2037-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States |
1787 | 2010-09-27 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | British forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015 |
1788 | 2010-09-27 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | "sales of touch screen phones will rise from 200,000 in 2006 to over 21 million in 2012" |
1789 | 2010-09-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops |
1790 | 2010-09-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | "22 nanometer chips are in mass production" during 2011 |
1791 | 2010-09-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | "From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double - from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million." |
1792 | 2010-09-27 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again" |
1793 | 2010-09-27 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | A stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available |
1794 | 2010-09-27 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. |
1795 | 2010-09-28 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | India launches Chandrayaan-2 in 2013 |
1796 | 2010-09-28 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | James Webb telescope is launched in 2014 |
1797 | 2010-09-28 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | '16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014 |
1798 | 2010-09-28 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | 'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014 |
1799 | 2010-09-28 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | 'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 |
1800 | 2010-09-28 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 'Laser guns are in naval use' in 2016 |
1805 | 2010-09-29 | 2011-11-01 | komponisto | 4 | Right | Appeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito. |
1818 | 2010-09-30 | 2011-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Wikipedia: User:Arbitrarily0 will say User:Gwern changed the Saimoe AfD from redirect/delete to no consensus |
1819 | 2010-09-30 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. |
1820 | 2010-10-01 | 2011-10-01 | mikko2 | 2 | Wrong | Maria and Mikael Jungner will initiate divorce before October 1st, 2011. |
1821 | 2010-10-03 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Facebook's 2015 revenues will be >$28 billion --Adam Rifkin, TechCrunch |
1822 | 2010-10-04 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | A _Myst_ live-action movie will not be released before 2020. |
1823 | 2010-10-05 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 |
1824 | 2010-10-05 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Playstation 4/successor PS3 released by 2017 |
1825 | 2010-10-05 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Strait of Messina bridge completed by 2017 |
1832 | 2010-10-05 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | The _Haruhi_ light novel series will conclude by 2015. |
1833 | 2010-10-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | By 2016, at least one reviewer of _Haruhi_ will accept the theory that Kyon is god. |
1834 | 2010-10-07 | 2015-10-06 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | "Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)" --James Miller |
1835 | 2010-10-07 | 2011-03-07 | dakyne | 1 | Wrong | The SIU Saluki men's basketball team will win 15 or more games in the 2010 - 2011 regular season, including the MVC tournament. |
1836 | 2010-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Crossrail opens in London |
1837 | 2010-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | e-paper in wide use by 2018 |
1838 | 2010-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Portable medical lasers that seal wounds by 2018 |
1839 | 2010-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 |
1844 | 2010-10-16 | 2010-10-20 | Matt | 1 | Right | I'll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday. |
1845 | 2010-10-16 | 2012-01-01 | TheScholar | 5 | Wrong | Before 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it's MacBooks. |
1846 | 2010-10-17 | 2100-01-01 | TheScholar | 11 | | By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. |
1847 | 2010-10-18 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | "Robot insect spies are in military use" in 2018 |
1848 | 2010-10-18 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | "Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds" in 2018 |
1849 | 2010-10-18 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Anti-fat drugs are available" in 2018 |
1850 | 2010-10-18 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared" in 2018 |
1853 | 2010-10-19 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | "The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on" in 2019 |
1854 | 2010-10-19 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Bionic eyes are commercially available" in 2019 |
1855 | 2010-10-19 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Automated freight transport" widespread by 2030s |
1856 | 2010-10-19 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 |
1857 | 2010-10-19 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | "Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day" in 2019 |
1865 | 2010-10-23 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | 'Texting by thinking' in 2020 |
1866 | 2010-10-23 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | 'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 |
1867 | 2010-10-23 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | 'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020 |
1868 | 2010-10-23 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | 'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 |
1869 | 2010-10-24 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. |
1870 | 2010-10-24 | 2022-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 |
1871 | 2010-10-24 | 2022-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 |
1872 | 2010-10-24 | 2022-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | 'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 |
1873 | 2010-10-26 | 2023-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Deafness cured by 2022 |
1874 | 2010-10-26 | 2023-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 |
1875 | 2010-10-26 | 2023-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 |
1876 | 2010-10-26 | 2023-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 |
1877 | 2010-10-26 | 2051-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. --Ray Kurzweil |
1878 | 2010-10-26 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 15 | | By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil |
1879 | 2010-10-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1880 | 2010-10-26 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1881 | 2010-10-26 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Prince Harry becomes the first member of the British royal family to fly in space.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1882 | 2010-10-26 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1883 | 2010-10-26 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is complete control of matter at the atomic level. Within a few years, because they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1884 | 2010-10-26 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | 'Existing currencies are abolished. The "mega-watt-hour" becomes the universal unit of exchange.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1885 | 2010-10-26 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'On his hundred birthday, December 16, Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1886 | 2010-10-26 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | 'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed "Project Spaceguard," to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, |
1887 | 2010-10-26 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | 'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1888 | 2010-10-26 | 2024-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023 |
1889 | 2010-10-26 | 2024-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 |
1890 | 2010-10-26 | 2024-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | 'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 |
1891 | 2010-10-26 | 2024-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 |
1892 | 2010-10-26 | 2023-01-01 | gwern | 24 | | '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1893 | 2010-10-26 | 2024-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | '2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1894 | 2010-10-26 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | '2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1895 | 2010-10-26 | 2026-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | '2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal "Braincap." Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of |
1896 | 2010-10-26 | 2041-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | '2040 The "Universal Replicator," based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1897 | 2010-10-26 | 2046-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | '2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1898 | 2010-10-26 | 2051-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | '2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1899 | 2010-10-26 | 2058-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | '2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1900 | 2010-10-26 | 2062-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | "2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space." --Arthur C. Clarke |
1901 | 2010-10-26 | 2091-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | '2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide "mined" from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' --Arthur C. Clarke |
1902 | 2010-10-26 | 2096-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | '2095 The development of a "Space Drive" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' |
1903 | 2010-10-27 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 |
1904 | 2010-10-27 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 |
1905 | 2010-10-27 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | 'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 |
1906 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. --Ray Kurzweil |
1907 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. --Ray Kurzweil |
1908 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. --Ray Kurzweil |
1909 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). --Ray Kurzweil |
1910 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. |
1911 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en |
1912 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. --Ray Kurz |
1913 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. --Ray Kurzweil |
1914 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit |
1915 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. --Ray Kurzweil |
1916 | 2010-10-27 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. --Ray Kurzweil |
1917 | 2010-10-29 | 2011-02-07 | pdaveybean | 2 | Wrong | The New York Jets will win the Superbowl in 2011. |
1922 | 2010-10-29 | 2026-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | 'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 |
1923 | 2010-10-29 | 2026-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | 'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 |
1924 | 2010-10-29 | 2026-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | 'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 |
1925 | 2010-10-30 | 2031-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 |
1926 | 2010-10-31 | 2011-10-31 | TheScholar | 9 | Right | In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. |
1927 | 2010-10-31 | 2050-01-01 | TheScholar | 11 | | By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. |
1934 | 2010-11-08 | 2060-11-07 | gwern | 6 | | "Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh |
1935 | 2010-11-09 | 2012-06-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2012 |
1936 | 2010-11-09 | 2016-06-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 |
1937 | 2010-11-09 | 2016-06-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent" --Joe Trippi |
1938 | 2010-11-11 | 2027-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026 |
1939 | 2010-11-11 | 2027-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026 |
1940 | 2010-11-11 | 2027-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | The United States of Africa is established by 2026 |
1941 | 2010-11-11 | 2027-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 |
1946 | 2010-11-12 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil |
1947 | 2010-11-12 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil |
1948 | 2010-11-12 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 17 | Wrong | Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil |
1949 | 2010-11-12 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. --Ray Kurzweil |
1950 | 2010-11-12 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil |
1951 | 2010-11-13 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | I will finish my _Evangelion_ research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. |
1952 | 2010-11-14 | 2049-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | 'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz |
1957 | 2010-11-18 | 2015-12-31 | raavin | 6 | Wrong | Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 |
1958 | 2010-11-18 | 2022-12-31 | raavin | 19 | | Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 |
1959 | 2010-11-18 | 2013-12-31 | raavin | 2 | Wrong | Water reserves in Victoria, Australia will be back up to 100% by 2013 |
1960 | 2010-11-20 | 2030-01-01 | kallman | 5 | | Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 |
1963 | 2010-11-20 | 2020-01-01 | kallman | 22 | | The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade |
1964 | 2010-11-20 | 2015-06-15 | kallman | 2 | Wrong | The fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either. |
1965 | 2010-11-22 | 2030-01-01 | kallman | 2 | | A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a "cyberspace grafitti" sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. |
1966 | 2010-11-24 | 2030-01-01 | PatrickAchtelik | 13 | | The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. |
1974 | 2010-11-28 | 2037-01-01 | Nic_Smith | 4 | | "[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange... and paying bonuses will be gone." - Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context - NS) |
1975 | 2010-12-01 | 2010-12-02 | Matt | 1 | Right | Bret's spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related. |
1976 | 2010-12-03 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Right | Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 |
1977 | 2010-12-05 | 2010-12-10 | bretcav | 1 | Wrong | I think that I'll have some predictions into predictionbook by the end of this week |
1985 | 2010-12-10 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. --Shane Legg |
1986 | 2010-12-10 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | 'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 --Shane Legg |
1987 | 2010-12-10 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | 'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 --Shane Legg |
1988 | 2010-12-10 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | "Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone." by 2020 --Shane Legg |
1989 | 2010-12-10 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | 'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' --Roko |
1990 | 2010-12-10 | 2017-01-06 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' --Mike |
2004 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'Facebook will pass 1 billion users.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2005 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | 'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2006 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2007 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2008 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | 'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2009 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Withdrawn | 'China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2010 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2011 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | 'Silicon Valley jobs will remain flat' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2012 | 2010-12-26 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | Carriers 'will institute charges based on usage' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien |
2015 | 2010-12-27 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | _Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt_ will air on Adult Swim before 2013. |
2016 | 2010-12-29 | 2011-07-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011' --Brian Breslin |
2017 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'WordPress ecosystem grows up' in 2011 --Brian Breslin |
2018 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | 'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 --Brian Breslin |
2019 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-08 | gwern | 2 | Withdrawn | 'Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year' --Brian Breslin |
2020 | 2010-12-29 | 2011-07-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' --Brian Breslin |
2021 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | 'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 --Brian Breslin |
2022 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for' in 2011 --Brian Breslin |
2023 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.' in 2011 --Brian Breslin |
2024 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'Facebook credits expand beyond facebook' in 2011 --Brian Breslin |
2025 | 2010-12-29 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Withdrawn | 'Google reboots android marketplace' in 2011 --Brian Breslin |
2026 | 2010-12-30 | 2023-01-02 | gwern | 3 | | Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. |
2027 | 2011-01-01 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | By 2015 a mother will be able to have much of the genome of her unborn child sequenced from her own blood. |
2028 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Obama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. --Capital Commentary |
2029 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan --Capital Commentary |
2030 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary |
2031 | 2011-01-01 | 2011-12-01 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro --Capitol Commentary |
2032 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | 'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary |
2033 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Hillary Clinton will step down as Secretary of State' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary |
2034 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Roberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 --Capitol Commentary |
2035 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | The Supreme Court will hear an appeal challenging Obamacare and uphold the acts in 2011. --Capitol Commentary |
2036 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Asif Ali Zardari will cease to be president of Pakistan during 2011 |
2037 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Asif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights |
2038 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 |
2039 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 |
2040 | 2011-01-01 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | The target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America |
2041 | 2011-01-01 | 2011-03-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Ken Jennings will defeat Watson at _Jeopardy!_ |
2042 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | Fidel Castro will not die in 2011 |
2043 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | MySpace is sold by Fox News Corp in 2011. --Ben Parr |
2044 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Bebo.com sold by Criterion Capital Partners in 2011. --Ben Parr |
2045 | 2011-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | No Facebook IPO in 2011 --Ben Parr |
2049 | 2011-01-02 | 2011-12-31 | Richard_Kennaway | 7 | Right | On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. |
2052 | 2011-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013. |
2053 | 2011-01-02 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015. |
2054 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Right | Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. |
2055 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-10 | gwern | 3 | Right | Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. |
2056 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 |
2057 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. |
2058 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. |
2059 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Groupon will buy Foursquare in 2011 --Seamus Condron |
2060 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Kevin Rose will leave Digg, or sell it for a bargain basement price, then leave. --Seamus Condron |
2061 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Delicious will either not be sold or will not be as popular in 2011 as it was in 2010. --Seamus Condron |
2062 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Readers' Choice for Time's [2011] Person of the Year: Anonymous --Seamus Condron |
2063 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | Nintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 --_Game Informer_ |
2064 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | At least one FPS game announced for Xbox Kinect in 2011 --_Game Informer_ |
2065 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | _Diablo III_ port to consoles announced in 2011 --_Game Informer_ |
2066 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | _Final Fantasy XIV_ announced by Sony in 2011. --_Game Informer_ |
2067 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | _Half-Life 3_ announced by Valve in 2011. --_Game Informer_ |
2068 | 2011-01-02 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | _Duck Hunt_ revealed for 3DS --_Game Informer_ |
2069 | 2011-01-03 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | "In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..." --Will Hutton |
2070 | 2011-01-03 | 2036-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | 'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada |
2071 | 2011-01-03 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada |
2072 | 2011-01-03 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada |
2073 | 2011-01-03 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | 'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po |
2074 | 2011-01-03 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 11 | | 'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman |
2075 | 2011-01-03 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | 'I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson' --John Ellis |
2076 | 2011-01-03 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | '[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' --John Ellis |
2077 | 2011-01-03 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. --Mike Lee |
2078 | 2011-01-03 | 2035-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee |
2079 | 2011-01-03 | 2026-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025. |
2080 | 2011-01-03 | 2083-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082 |
2081 | 2011-01-04 | 2011-11-30 | Laus_CB | 6 | Wrong | Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 |
2082 | 2011-01-05 | 2012-01-01 | scav | 2 | Right | katla volcano will not erupt in 2011 |
2083 | 2011-01-05 | 2011-12-31 | scav | 6 | Wrong | 3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 |
2084 | 2011-01-06 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. |
2085 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely |
2086 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Yahoo will sell its Chinese assets in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely |
2087 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Yahoo will sell its Yahoo Japan shares in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely |
2088 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Yahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely |
2089 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | '1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 --Robert X. Cringely |
2090 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Right | The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. --Kevin |
2091 | 2011-01-06 | 2011-02-23 | gwern | 2 | Right | 'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' --SarahC |
2092 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 11 | Right | 'General AI will not be made in 2011.' --JoshuaZ |
2093 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | 'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' --JoshuaZ |
2094 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 'The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]' --JoshuaZ |
2095 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Ryan Williams's recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP will be tightened' --JoshuaZ |
2096 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | 'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction "megachurch" means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' --JoshuaZ |
2097 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | 'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' --JoshuaZ |
2098 | 2011-01-06 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'the United States has a historically hot summer [2011].' --orthonormal |
2099 | 2011-01-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Apple buys Time Warner Cable in 2011 --Robert X. Cringeley |
2100 | 2011-01-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | The price of gold will fall in real terms. --Costanza |
2103 | 2011-01-07 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | '75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' --orangecat |
2104 | 2011-01-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'There will be a second season of _High School of the Dead_' --Sketerpot |
2105 | 2011-01-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' --Sketerpot |
2106 | 2011-01-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' --Sketerpot |
2107 | 2011-01-07 | 2013-07-01 | gwern | 7 | Right | Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed --Sketerpot |
2108 | 2011-01-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | 'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' --icebrand |
2109 | 2011-01-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' --icebrand |
2110 | 2011-01-08 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Jared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally |
2123 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' --scav |
2124 | 2011-01-10 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | 'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw |
2125 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | 'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' --CronoDAS |
2126 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | '"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' --CronoDAS |
2127 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%' --CronoDAS |
2128 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%' --CronoDAS |
2129 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'I get a "real job": 1%' --CronoDAS |
2130 | 2011-01-10 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 13 | | GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ |
2131 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | 'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' --Skatche |
2132 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'Despite media hysterics as to its imminent demise the current coalition of parties in government in Australia will remain in power. (70%)' --luminosity |
2133 | 2011-01-10 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | 'Newspapers in Australia will be found to be boosting subscription numbers by a significant amount to swindle advertisers, again. (40%)' --luminosity |
2134 | 2011-01-11 | 2012-01-31 | scav | 2 | Wrong | Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011 |
2135 | 2011-01-11 | 2020-10-31 | scav | 3 | Withdrawn | A Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won't be a string theory. |
2136 | 2011-01-12 | 2026-01-12 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Jared Loughner will be convicted (or plead guilty) to at least one charge related to the 2011 Tuscon shooting. |
2137 | 2011-01-12 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | I will switch from Mnemosyne to Anki by 2014. |
2138 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Withdrawn | 'Makerbot will sell more than 10,000 3D printers in 2011.' --Joris Peels |
2139 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.' --Joris Peels |
2140 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.' --Joris Peels |
2141 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | 'Both Stratasys and Objet will release $5000 desktop 3D printers at Euromold 2011.' --Joris Peels |
2142 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | '3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.' --Joris Peels |
2143 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.' --Joris Peels |
2144 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'Microsoft buys Dassault Systemes in 2011.' --Joris Peels |
2145 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | '3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011' --Joris Peels |
2146 | 2011-01-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "bre Pettis is profiled in the New Yorker." --Joris Peels |
2149 | 2011-01-18 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | _The Notenki Memoirs_ will be available as an official commercial ebook in 2011. |
2150 | 2011-01-19 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | “By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M |
2151 | 2011-01-21 | 2016-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015 |
2152 | 2011-01-22 | 2011-07-18 | Nic_Smith | 3 | Wrong | A significant portion of the plot of _Kore wa Zombie Desu ka?_ will be revealed to be a "Dying Dream." |
2156 | 2011-01-25 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Google will kill Google Knol by 2020. |
2157 | 2011-01-25 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | Gotthard Base Tunnel completed by 2018. |
2158 | 2011-01-25 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 11 | | EU to dissolve by 2040. |
2159 | 2011-01-25 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Wooly mammoth resurrected by 2016. |
2160 | 2011-01-25 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. |
2161 | 2011-01-25 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 4G standard finalized and official by 2014. |
2162 | 2011-01-25 | 2016-01-21 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | “By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” --John Feminella |
2165 | 2011-01-27 | 2011-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | David Fincher will win 2011 Best Director Oscar --John Scalzi |
2166 | 2011-01-27 | 2011-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Right | Colin Firth will win 2011 Best Actor Oscar. --John Scalzi |
2167 | 2011-01-27 | 2011-02-27 | gwern | 2 | Right | Natalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar --John Scalzi |
2168 | 2011-01-27 | 2011-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Right | Christian Bale will win 2011 Supporting Actor Oscar --John Scalzi |
2169 | 2011-01-27 | 2011-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Amy Adams will win 2011 Best Supporting Actress Oscar. --John Scalzi |
2170 | 2011-01-27 | 2011-02-27 | gwern | 3 | Right | _Toy Story 3_ will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. --John Scalzi |
2189 | 2011-02-11 | 2012-01-01 | Matt | 2 | Wrong | PD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011. |
2198 | 2011-02-13 | 2012-02-13 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition." --FfT |
2199 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non |
2200 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' --FtT |
2201 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'At year's end, the district court will still not have issued a final judgment on the Google Book Search settlement.' --FtT |
2202 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi |
2203 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' --FtT |
2204 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | 'The RIAA and/or MPAA will be sued over their role in the government's actions to reassign DNS names owned by allegedly unlawful web sites. Even if the lawsuit manages to get all the way to trial, there won't be a significant ruling against them.' --FtT |
2205 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore |
2206 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'ICANN still will not have introduced new generic TLDs.' --FtT |
2207 | 2011-02-14 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the |
2223 | 2011-02-16 | 2011-05-30 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | 80% of my students will have signed up to prediction book and make eight or more predictions by the end of May |
2224 | 2011-02-17 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | '1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' --Bruce Wagner |
2227 | 2011-02-19 | 2011-02-20 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 6 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) |
2228 | 2011-02-19 | 2011-02-20 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 10 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) |
2235 | 2011-02-27 | 2011-02-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | There is between $20.00 and $22.00 in my change jar (as determined by counting machine). |
2236 | 2011-02-27 | 2011-02-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | There's between $18.00 and $24.00 in the change jar (counted by machine). |
2237 | 2011-02-27 | 2011-02-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | There's between $16 and $26 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) |
2238 | 2011-02-27 | 2011-02-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | There’s between $11 and $36 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) |
2239 | 2011-02-27 | 2011-02-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | There’s between $5 and $50 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) |
2240 | 2011-03-01 | 2011-04-03 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | Initial shipments of iPad 2 will have a display that emits circularly polarized light |
2241 | 2011-03-01 | 2011-03-06 | DavidPercival | 1 | Wrong | We will receive rain Friday, Saturday and Sunday because we are going to camp on a deserted beach! |
2242 | 2011-03-01 | 2011-03-08 | Eun | 1 | Right | Someone will be sick during or after the field trip on the beach. The trip will be very hard for contemporary well protected people to undergo difficult circumstance. |
2243 | 2011-03-02 | 2011-05-02 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | The final funnel form will be oval |
2244 | 2011-03-02 | 2011-05-02 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | The final funnel form will be elliptical |
2245 | 2011-03-02 | 2013-03-16 | nam2001 | 13 | Wrong | Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! |
2246 | 2011-03-02 | 2012-01-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011 |
2247 | 2011-03-02 | 2012-01-10 | gwern | 1 | Right | Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011 |
2248 | 2011-03-02 | 2012-01-10 | gwern | 1 | Right | Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011 |
2249 | 2011-03-02 | 2012-01-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release >=9 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011 |
2250 | 2011-03-03 | 2011-03-06 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Wrong | I will call my brother on his birthday. |
2254 | 2011-03-03 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2012 |
2255 | 2011-03-03 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2013 |
2256 | 2011-03-03 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2014 |
2260 | 2011-03-03 | 2011-03-07 | Jessica Hartany | 3 | Wrong | I will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday |
2261 | 2011-03-07 | 2011-03-08 | Jessica Hartany | 1 | Wrong | I will finish reading the drowned world and at least 4 papers before class by Tuesday |
2262 | 2011-03-07 | 2011-03-07 | Jessica Hartany | 1 | Withdrawn | I will write two blog posts from the 'epic' camping weekend by midnight |
2263 | 2011-03-07 | 2011-03-14 | DavidPercival | 3 | Wrong | I will aquire a copy of 'Children of the Dust' and watch the TV series in an attempt to develop an understanding of post-apocalyptic survival following nuclear war. |
2264 | 2011-03-07 | 2015-12-30 | maxdemian | 2 | Wrong | Facebook will be valued at less than $30 billion by 2015. |
2265 | 2011-03-07 | 2012-01-01 | maxdemian | 2 | Right | Gaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011. |
2268 | 2011-03-07 | 2011-03-07 | maxdemian | 1 | Right | I will read at least one chapter of a book tonight. |
2274 | 2011-03-07 | 2011-03-14 | Eunseo | 2 | Right | My house mate declared that she has quited smoking from today. However, she will restart smoking in a week. |
2285 | 2011-03-07 | 2011-03-15 | Jessica Hartany | 1 | Right | angelina will get a window seat when she start work next week. |
2286 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-08 | DavidPercival | 1 | Right | I will fall asleep reading World War Z tonight due to exhaustion! |
2287 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-11 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | few ppl in our class will get cold this week! ;)) |
2288 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-31 | dumun | 1 | Wrong | Every student will come to join yoga class.20% of them will join another yoga class individually. |
2289 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-08 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | Our class will end early today... |
2290 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-08 | Jessica Hartany | 4 | Right | ben will not make it back to comp lab by 4pm. |
2291 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-10 | sailoryoon | 1 | Wrong | I'll be massive drunk tmr night. |
2292 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-11 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | I will remember to have lunch before 2pm for the next three days. |
2293 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-11 | nam2001 | 3 | Wrong | I will be right time for yoga class! |
2294 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-15 | Eunseo | 1 | Right | Tamara(tutor of FPM) will give a chance to us to have Frank Gery's lecture next Tuesday (15th of March 2011). |
2295 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-11 | Ye | 5 | Wrong | Ben will be late for the yoga class. |
2296 | 2011-03-08 | 2011-03-11 | Eunseo | 1 | Right | I will finish reading at least 3 chaters and papers by friday. |
2297 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-12 | wael | 1 | Wrong | Three student will miss the yoga class |
2298 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-11 | Jessica Hartany | 1 | Right | I will be on time on Friday |
2299 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-31 | Jessica Hartany | 3 | Wrong | I will only drink coffee once a week for the rest of March. |
2300 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-12 | nam2001 | 1 | Right | I will eat "pho' " (vietnamese beef noodle soup) at least one in this week! I miss pho' |
2301 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-06-10 | Eunseo | 3 | Wrong | I will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term. |
2302 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-12 | dumun | 1 | Wrong | 60% of students will have lunch before yoga class!! |
2303 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-10 | Mel Eclarinal | 1 | Withdrawn | I will write 3 blog posts by tomorrow |
2304 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-09 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | I'll finish a model before I sleep... |
2305 | 2011-03-09 | 2011-03-14 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | I won't see my flatmate more than once this week. |
2306 | 2011-03-10 | 2060-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips. |
2307 | 2011-03-10 | 2011-03-12 | DavidPercival | 2 | Wrong | Our Qantas flight to Adelaide will depart Sydney on time tomorrow. |
2310 | 2011-03-10 | 2011-04-01 | Mel Eclarinal | 2 | Right | I will receive the books I ordered from amazon by April. |
2311 | 2011-03-10 | 2011-03-11 | Ben Doherty | 3 | Wrong | less than 12 students will attend my class today |
2312 | 2011-03-10 | 2011-03-14 | sailoryoon | 1 | Wrong | I'll finish my one of readings that i read before at the camping within this weekends. |
2313 | 2011-03-11 | 2011-03-18 | DavidPercival | 1 | Wrong | I will beat Stephen in our latest game of 'Words with Friends' |
2314 | 2011-03-11 | 2011-03-21 | Sandra Åhlén | 4 | Right | I will attend at least nine yoga classes |
2315 | 2011-03-11 | 2011-03-11 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | I'll be in dreamland by 12am tonight... Tired... Zzz... |
2316 | 2011-03-11 | 2011-03-13 | wael | 1 | Wrong | 6 of students from Ben's class will attend yoga class again |
2317 | 2011-03-11 | 2011-03-14 | wael | 1 | Wrong | only 4 students will read to night |
2318 | 2011-03-11 | 2011-03-12 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | I will make it to class on time on saturday. |
2319 | 2011-03-11 | 2011-03-20 | nam2001 | 1 | Right | i will lose weight after yoga class for sure! |
2320 | 2011-03-12 | 2011-03-13 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | Someone will make me drink at least 3 glass at the birthday party later..! |
2321 | 2011-03-12 | 2011-03-14 | Mel Eclarinal | 1 | Wrong | I will finish my blog post about the generator before Monday |
2322 | 2011-03-12 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | “By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period.” --Shamir Karkal |
2323 | 2011-03-13 | 2011-03-14 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | Nam will oversleep tomorrow and come to uni late... |
2324 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-14 | puya | 2 | Right | Less than 7 students will attend the RUBY lesson today. |
2325 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-15 | dumun | 1 | Right | I will finish at least one reading before sun-rise |
2326 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-20 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | I will finish "on the beach" soon this week! |
2327 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-04-30 | nam2001 | 2 | Wrong | I will take IELTS on 19th March, morning and i will get 6.0 ! |
2328 | 2011-03-14 | 2014-12-25 | Ben Doherty | 4 | Wrong | Mad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014 |
2329 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-18 | nam2001 | 3 | Wrong | All clubs which are play home at second game in 1/8 Round Champions League will get into next round 1/4! |
2330 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-17 | wael | 1 | Right | I will design a house this week |
2331 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-15 | wael | 1 | Wrong | Ben will wear blue T-shitr on tuesday |
2332 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-15 | dumun | 1 | Right | I will not late for work today!! |
2333 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-18 | Hani | 1 | Right | I will read three article before Friday |
2334 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-16 | wael | 1 | Right | I will look to the shark map in Sydney on Wednesday? |
2335 | 2011-03-14 | 2011-03-16 | DavidPercival | 1 | Right | I will struggle with the fitness training at Soccer tonight after my first Bikram Yoga session! |
2336 | 2011-03-15 | 2011-03-15 | puya | 1 | Right | less than 7 students will come to Ben's office today. |
2339 | 2011-03-15 | 2011-03-19 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | we can see super moon on this saturday. |
2344 | 2011-03-15 | 2011-03-22 | Jessica Hartany | 1 | Wrong | I will NOT get anyone from work or uni sick by the end of the week. |
2349 | 2011-03-16 | 2011-05-16 | Ye | 1 | Wrong | I will go to yoga class at least 8 times. |
2350 | 2011-03-16 | 2011-03-20 | Ye | 1 | Right | Ben will not be joining us for the camping trip. |
2353 | 2011-03-16 | 2011-03-30 | puya | 1 | Wrong | I will lose 2 kilos by next 15 days |
2354 | 2011-03-16 | 2011-03-17 | dumun | 1 | Wrong | 90% of classmates will be arrived in class on time |
2355 | 2011-03-16 | 2011-03-17 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | It will not rain tomorrow so I'll not need to bring my umbrella to uni... |
2356 | 2011-03-16 | 2020-01-01 | Mel Eclarinal | 19 | Wrong | Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. |
2357 | 2011-03-17 | 2011-03-22 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | Urban drawings will be done by monday. |
2358 | 2011-03-17 | 2011-01-01 | DavidPercival | 1 | Withdrawn | Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020. |
2359 | 2011-03-17 | 2012-01-01 | DavidPercival | 1 | Withdrawn | Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 |
2360 | 2011-03-17 | 2011-03-17 | DavidPercival | 1 | Withdrawn | Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 |
2361 | 2011-03-17 | 2020-01-16 | DavidPercival | 8 | Wrong | Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 |
2362 | 2011-03-17 | 2012-12-13 | Sandra Åhlén | 3 | Wrong | The world will end on 12 December 2012. |
2363 | 2011-03-17 | 2012-12-22 | Sandra Åhlén | 3 | Wrong | The world will end on 21 December 2012. |
2364 | 2011-03-17 | 2011-03-18 | Eunseo | 1 | Wrong | I will go to morning yoga class on 18 of March 2011. |
2365 | 2011-03-17 | 2011-03-22 | wael | 8 | Wrong | The international media will not mention anything about Japan's Earthquake on next Monday |
2366 | 2011-03-18 | 2011-04-30 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | I can not finish any books ! |
2367 | 2011-03-18 | 2011-03-18 | puya | 2 | Wrong | Ben will not be tired at the end of todays class. |
2368 | 2011-03-18 | 2012-12-31 | puya | 6 | Right | The world will not end on December 2012. |
2369 | 2011-03-18 | 2011-08-24 | bobpage | 7 | Wrong | Deus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) |
2370 | 2011-03-18 | 2011-05-18 | Eunseo | 3 | Wrong | Volcano will accur on Baekdu Mountain within 2mounths. |
2371 | 2011-03-18 | 2011-03-25 | Mel Eclarinal | 2 | Wrong | The Messenger probe spacecraft that is meant to circle Mercury will fly away from Mercury and end up circling the Sun. |
2375 | 2011-03-19 | 2011-03-19 | nam2001 | 1 | Right | today we will finish class later than 4pm! |
2376 | 2011-03-19 | 2011-03-19 | alvinTng | 1 | Wrong | I'll watch ALIEN 2 tonight. |
2377 | 2011-03-19 | 2011-03-19 | DavidPercival | 1 | Wrong | Tottenham Hotspur will beat West Ham by two goals or more tonight. |
2378 | 2011-03-20 | 2013-01-01 | puya | 5 | Wrong | By the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent. |
2379 | 2011-03-20 | 2011-03-22 | Mel Eclarinal | 2 | Right | I will write 3 blog posts before the end of Monday the 21st of March 2011. |
2380 | 2011-03-20 | 2011-03-23 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | With current perforation settings the façade for the bank building will meet or exceed requirements for shading according to my testing. |
2381 | 2011-03-20 | 2011-03-21 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | DK will bring coffee in the morning into his work. |
2382 | 2011-03-20 | 2011-04-30 | Jessica Hartany | 3 | Right | Petrol price's average in Sydney won't be below $1.40 (excluding discounts and vouchers) until the end of April |
2383 | 2011-03-20 | 2011-03-20 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | It'll be raining when I get up in the morning. |
2384 | 2011-03-21 | 2013-08-08 | bobpage | 12 | Wrong | Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM |
2385 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-21 | sailoryoon | 1 | Wrong | I'll finish to make my disaster story for tomorrow by 11 pm tonight. |
2386 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-27 | DavidPercival | 2 | Right | Labour will lose this weekends NSW State election. |
2387 | 2011-03-21 | 2016-03-21 | Mel Eclarinal | 7 | Wrong | There will be a pandemic within the next 5 years. |
2393 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-22 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Copy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, delivered tomorrow. |
2394 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-22 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Scooter, due Weds, will arrive tomorrow. |
2395 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-23 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | Scooter will arrive on Weds. |
2396 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-22 | puya | 3 | Wrong | Ben will come ten minutes late to class tomorrow. |
2397 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-22 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | I won't finish my work by 4A.M tomorrow. |
2398 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-26 | wael | 1 | Wrong | the war between Lybia and France will strat this Friday |
2399 | 2011-03-21 | 2011-05-01 | Ben Doherty | 3 | Wrong | The price of petrol at the pump will reach $1.55 at some point before the end of April - http://bit.ly/eUr3eE |
2402 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-10-01 | Ben Doherty | 4 | Right | Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 |
2403 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-03-31 | Ben Doherty | 4 | Wrong | Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011 |
2404 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-12-31 | Ben Doherty | 3 | Right | Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 |
2405 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-07-31 | DavidPercival | 2 | Wrong | Olivia will get the promotion to Customer Supervisor position at Qantas. |
2406 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-03-22 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | I'll finish bloging for packing tonight. |
2407 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-03-23 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-1 |
2408 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-03-23 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-2 |
2409 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-03-23 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-5 |
2410 | 2011-03-23 | 2012-12-23 | seansman15@hotmail.com | 6 | Right | The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. |
2413 | 2011-03-23 | 2011-03-23 | puya | 1 | Wrong | I will attend today's public lecture. |
2414 | 2011-03-23 | 2011-03-25 | alvinTng | 2 | Right | War of the worlds DVD will be sent to be on Friday... |
2415 | 2011-03-23 | 2011-04-07 | nam2001 | 2 | Wrong | Chelsea will win MU at SB in 1/4 CL |
2416 | 2011-03-23 | 2011-03-01 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | Chelsea will meet Barcelona at Wembley Stadium |
2417 | 2011-03-23 | 2011-03-24 | Mel Eclarinal | 1 | Right | Class will go beyond 7:00pm tonight. |
2418 | 2011-03-24 | 2011-03-27 | DavidPercival | 2 | Wrong | Sydney Swans will beat Melborne in the AFL this weekend |
2419 | 2011-03-24 | 2011-03-26 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | I will have someone sat in the seat next to me at some point in my flight |
2420 | 2011-03-24 | 2011-03-26 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | My flight will take off within +- 5 minutes of the scheduled time (QF1) |
2423 | 2011-03-26 | 2011-03-27 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | I'll leave my house just twice today. |
2431 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-04-03 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | I'll finish 2 models this week. |
2432 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | I will have a PHP script to parse and reformat STATA summary stats by 5pm. |
2433 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 6pm. |
2434 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 7pm. |
2435 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 8pm. |
2436 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 9pm. |
2437 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 10pm. |
2438 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 11pm. |
2439 | 2011-03-27 | 2011-03-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats today. |
2440 | 2011-03-28 | 2011-04-04 | Mel Eclarinal | 4 | Right | I will write 2 blog posts daily for 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow. |
2445 | 2011-03-29 | 2011-03-27 | DavidPercival | 1 | Withdrawn | The USA or Russia will be involved in my hypothetical nuclear threat scenario for my design studio. |
2446 | 2011-03-29 | 2011-05-29 | DavidPercival | 1 | Right | The USA or Russia will be involved in my hypothetical nuclear threat scenario for my design studio. |
2447 | 2011-03-29 | 2011-04-03 | dumun | 1 | Right | I will watch 3 earthquake movie before this weekend. |
2448 | 2011-03-29 | 2011-03-30 | dumun | 2 | Wrong | Australia will beat Germany by 1:0 tomorrow! |
2449 | 2011-03-29 | 2011-03-29 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | I will submit all relevant gwern.net links into witcoin.com within 30 minutes. |
2450 | 2011-03-29 | 2011-04-06 | wael | 2 | Right | I will write 3 blogs before 5 of April |
2457 | 2011-03-30 | 2011-04-06 | puya | 3 | Wrong | chelsea will eliminate man united in the quarterfinals of the champions league. |
2458 | 2011-03-30 | 2011-12-31 | puya | 3 | Wrong | Immigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year. |
2459 | 2011-03-30 | 2011-04-03 | Mel Eclarinal | 1 | Right | Darren will finish reading 'The Walking Dead' by Sunday |
2460 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-04-07 | Jessica Hartany | 2 | Right | I will finish mapping for 'The City' by next Thursday |
2461 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-12-15 | Jessica Hartany | 3 | Right | The Vic Hotel in Annandale will start serving Bulmers on tap again by Dec 2011. |
2462 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-04-03 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | Milan will beat Inter on Sunday |
2463 | 2011-03-31 | 2021-03-31 | Mel Eclarinal | 6 | | Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years |
2464 | 2011-03-31 | 2050-03-31 | Mel Eclarinal | 4 | | The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 |
2465 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-04-08 | wael | 1 | Right | I will lose 2 kilos before next friday |
2466 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-04-01 | Eunseo | 1 | Right | I will clearn our unit bathroom tomorrow. |
2467 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-03-31 | alvinTng | 1 | Wrong | I'll not be able to sleep tonight |
2468 | 2011-03-31 | 2011-04-04 | wael | 1 | Wrong | Triple h will beat the undertaker on WrestlMainia 27 |
2469 | 2011-04-01 | 2011-05-01 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Wrong | "Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011" - Intrade |
2470 | 2011-04-01 | 2011-04-16 | minhduc | 3 | Wrong | Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April |
2471 | 2011-04-01 | 2012-04-01 | nam2001 | 2 | Wrong | I wont see her any more |
2472 | 2011-04-01 | 2011-04-02 | Eunseo | 2 | Wrong | Dumun and I will be in same group in Sustainable Urban Development. |
2473 | 2011-04-01 | 2011-05-01 | alvinTng | 1 | Wrong | There'll be 3 ALIEN related reports on the news this month. |
2474 | 2011-04-02 | 2011-06-02 | minhduc | 3 | Right | Allied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi's government! |
2475 | 2011-04-02 | 2011-04-03 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | West Ham will beat MU tonight! or at least a draw |
2479 | 2011-04-03 | 2011-05-23 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Right | FC Barcelona will win La Liga 2010/11 |
2480 | 2011-04-03 | 2011-04-21 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | Real Madrid will win Copa del Rey 2010/11 |
2481 | 2011-04-03 | 2011-04-21 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | "Barcelona will beat Real Madrid 5-0 in the Copa del Rey final" - Barcelona president Sandro Rosell |
2482 | 2011-04-03 | 2011-04-04 | sailoryoon | 1 | Wrong | I will finish documentation for bus station by tuesday night. |
2487 | 2011-04-05 | 2011-04-26 | minhduc | 1 | Right | I will be at the library everyday until the mid semester break |
2488 | 2011-04-05 | 2011-04-05 | minhduc | 1 | Wrong | Today, I will finish Event-Cities by midnight |
2489 | 2011-04-05 | 2011-04-06 | DavidPercival | 1 | Right | Christiano Ronaldo will play for Real Madrid against Tottenham Hotspur in tomorrows Champions League clash. |
2490 | 2011-04-06 | 2011-04-06 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | I will cook dinner tonight for my boy friend. |
2491 | 2011-04-06 | 2011-04-21 | DavidPercival | 2 | Wrong | Tottenham will defeat Real Madrid on aggregate in the Champions League |
2492 | 2011-04-06 | 2011-04-07 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | I'll finish watching all the DVDs by tomorrow. |
2493 | 2011-04-06 | 2014-08-09 | puya | 21 | Wrong | Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. |
2494 | 2011-04-06 | 2011-12-29 | puya | 4 | Wrong | Project and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year. |
2497 | 2011-04-06 | 2011-04-06 | sailoryoon | 1 | Wrong | I will go shopping tonight with boy friend. |
2498 | 2011-04-07 | 2011-04-07 | Ye | 1 | Right | I will watch at least 2 movies by midnight |
2499 | 2011-04-07 | 2011-05-12 | etrecheesecake | 1 | Right | I will get a 4.0 in my class. |
2500 | 2011-04-07 | 2011-04-07 | sailoryoon | 2 | Wrong | I will finish tutorial 1 tonight for project management subject. |
2507 | 2011-04-08 | 2011-04-10 | DavidPercival | 2 | Wrong | It will rain for my soccer match tomorrow. |
2508 | 2011-04-08 | 2016-04-08 | Nic_Smith | 2 | Right | MercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now. |
2511 | 2011-04-08 | 2011-07-08 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | My rent will increase in June |
2512 | 2011-04-09 | 2011-04-12 | Sandra Åhlén | 3 | Wrong | "Rare pink diamond to fetch £7m at auction" |
2513 | 2011-04-09 | 2011-04-11 | minhduc | 2 | Right | Liverpool will win Manchester City |
2514 | 2011-04-09 | 2011-04-10 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | my nose will recover "cold" tomorrow |
2515 | 2011-04-09 | 2011-04-16 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | MU 1-2 Chelsea next week game! |
2516 | 2011-04-09 | 2011-04-10 | wael | 1 | Right | I'm going to hunt and fish weighing half Kg |
2521 | 2011-04-10 | 2011-04-15 | nam2001 | 1 | Right | she will call me or text me next weekend for dinner! |
2522 | 2011-04-10 | 2011-06-30 | kallman | 3 | Right | Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents |
2523 | 2011-04-10 | 2011-05-04 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | I will get a Credit for Finance & Project Management Assignment 1 |
2524 | 2011-04-10 | 2012-12-12 | Ye | 19 | Wrong | Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 |
2525 | 2011-04-11 | 2011-04-11 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | 10 or more people will attend tonight's compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt) |
2526 | 2011-04-11 | 2011-04-11 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | 5 or more people will attend tonight’s compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt) |
2530 | 2011-04-11 | 2011-04-12 | puya | 1 | Wrong | Ben will be late for tomorrows class. |
2531 | 2011-04-11 | 2011-04-16 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | my cold will cover next 3 days, please! |
2532 | 2011-04-11 | 2013-01-01 | nam2001 | 14 | Right | 2012 is not end of this world! |
2533 | 2011-04-11 | 2011-09-16 | Eunseo | 2 | Wrong | This summer in North hemisphere will be the hottest weather ever. |
2534 | 2011-04-12 | 2012-01-01 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level this year. |
2535 | 2011-04-12 | 2012-04-12 | Nic_Smith | 2 | Wrong | My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year. |
2538 | 2011-04-13 | 2011-06-13 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Niklas Eliasson will be sentenced to 14 years in prison |
2539 | 2011-04-13 | 2011-06-13 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Niklas Eliason will be sentenced to psychiatric care |
2540 | 2011-04-13 | 2011-04-13 | Ye | 1 | Right | To save money, I will cook my own dinner tonight. |
2541 | 2011-04-14 | 2011-05-05 | dumun | 4 | Right | Man UTD will beat Shalke 04 on semi-final of Champhions League. |
2542 | 2011-04-14 | 2011-04-18 | wael | 1 | Right | My sketch design will finish after 3 days? |
2543 | 2011-04-15 | 2011-06-17 | niekjetten | 3 | Wrong | I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011) |
2544 | 2011-04-15 | 2011-04-16 | minhduc | 1 | Right | Tomorrow, It will rain when I wake up! |
2545 | 2011-04-15 | 2011-04-17 | minhduc | 2 | Wrong | Real Madrid will win Barcelona on Sunday |
2546 | 2011-04-15 | 2016-04-15 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years. |
2547 | 2011-04-16 | 2011-04-17 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | The string cheese that I left in the TA office is still there. |
2548 | 2011-04-16 | 2016-04-16 | nam2001 | 3 | Wrong | TV soon will come out with super wide-screen 2.35:1 |
2549 | 2011-04-16 | 2013-04-16 | nam2001 | 5 | Wrong | elevator will be control by voice? |
2550 | 2011-04-16 | 2021-04-16 | nam2001 | 2 | | PC at home will disappear in future |
2551 | 2011-04-16 | 2021-04-16 | nam2001 | 2 | | There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human? |
2552 | 2011-04-16 | 2511-04-16 | nam2001 | 2 | | Invisible clothes will be real in 5OO years later |
2553 | 2011-04-16 | 2011-05-16 | alvinTng | 1 | Wrong | There will 2 constituencies won by the opposition parties in the coming S'pore election. |
2556 | 2011-04-17 | 2011-04-22 | puya | 2 | Wrong | ben will do the first floor of the opt model. |
2557 | 2011-04-18 | 2011-04-22 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | I will go easter show on Friday. |
2558 | 2011-04-18 | 2011-04-27 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | I will get new mornitor within this week. |
2565 | 2011-04-20 | 2111-04-20 | nam2001 | 3 | | Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future! |
2566 | 2011-04-20 | 2011-04-27 | Eunseo | 1 | Wrong | After Easter holiday, the temperature will be down more than 5 degrees. |
2567 | 2011-04-20 | 2011-04-26 | Eunseo | 4 | Wrong | I will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday. |
2570 | 2011-04-21 | 2011-04-28 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | My Car's angels eyes order will come the end of next week! :( too late! |
2571 | 2011-04-21 | 2011-04-22 | alvinTng | 2 | Wrong | My diarrhoea will stop tomorrow. |
2572 | 2011-04-22 | 2011-04-24 | wael | 1 | Right | I will talk to more than 100 people on Saturday |
2573 | 2011-04-22 | 2011-04-24 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | There will be more than 4 people in attendance at the Sydney Less Wrong meetup at some point while I'm there. http://bit.ly/dXMiL0 |
2576 | 2011-04-24 | 2011-05-05 | Jase9r | 3 | Wrong | The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin |
2577 | 2011-04-24 | 2011-08-24 | minhduc | 2 | Right | Despite the warning of International Rivers Network (IRN), Laos will keep building Xayaburi hydroelectric dam on Mekong River. |
2580 | 2011-04-25 | 2011-04-26 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Right | At least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow. |
2581 | 2011-04-25 | 2011-04-26 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Group meeting will finish before 11.30 tomorrow. |
2582 | 2011-04-25 | 2011-05-06 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Right | Matt will submit a physical model at his next presentation |
2585 | 2011-04-26 | 2011-05-01 | sailoryoon | 1 | Wrong | I will finish my elective assignment within this week. |
2586 | 2011-04-26 | 2011-04-28 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will have a presentation on Thursday. |
2587 | 2011-04-26 | 2011-05-13 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Right | Eric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011 |
2588 | 2011-04-26 | 2011-05-15 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Eric Saade will win Eurovision Song Contest 2011 |
2589 | 2011-04-26 | 2011-04-26 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me. |
2590 | 2011-04-26 | 2011-04-26 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me. |
2591 | 2011-04-26 | 2011-04-26 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me. |
2595 | 2011-04-28 | 2011-04-30 | DavidPercival | 1 | Wrong | The vicar will pronounce William or Kate's name wrong during the Royal Wedding. |
2596 | 2011-04-28 | 2011-04-30 | DavidPercival | 1 | Right | My soccer game will be called off this weekend. |
2599 | 2011-04-28 | 2011-05-08 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | Tanjong Pagar will win in the coming SG election for the 11th time. |
2600 | 2011-04-29 | 2011-05-01 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | I will study all night after finish work during weekends. |
2601 | 2011-04-29 | 2011-04-29 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | A student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour. |
2612 | 2011-04-30 | 2011-05-01 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | The coastal trail will take less than 6 hours tomorrow |
2613 | 2011-04-30 | 2011-05-01 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | The coastal trail will take less than 8 hours tomorrow |
2614 | 2011-04-30 | 2011-05-07 | nam2001 | 1 | Wrong | i will watch fast and furious within this week |
2618 | 2011-05-01 | 2011-05-01 | minhduc | 2 | Right | Liverpool will defeat Newcastle tonight. |
2619 | 2011-05-01 | 2012-12-16 | Jessica Hartany | 3 | Right | China will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong |
2620 | 2011-05-01 | 2011-06-01 | minhduc | 1 | Right | Barcelona will win the 2010-2011 La Liga title . |
2621 | 2011-05-01 | 2011-05-01 | minhduc | 2 | Wrong | The result of the match between Arsenal and Man United will be a draw. |
2622 | 2011-05-01 | 2011-07-01 | minhduc | 4 | Wrong | Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. |
2623 | 2011-05-01 | 2011-05-01 | minhduc | 1 | Right | I will get up at 7.30 am tomorrow. |
2624 | 2011-05-01 | 2011-05-03 | minhduc | 1 | Right | Next tuesday, at least one member in my group will not come before 6pm. |
2629 | 2011-05-01 | 2011-06-12 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Bitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks --cjb |
2630 | 2011-05-02 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | _Evangelion_ manga: Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas |
2632 | 2011-05-03 | 2011-05-07 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | PatrickRobotham write >=500 words on cantor set searches in Haskell |
2633 | 2011-05-03 | 2011-06-03 | DavidPercival | 3 | Wrong | There will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month. |
2638 | 2011-05-04 | 2011-07-04 | minhduc | 10 | Wrong | Bin Laden is still alive! |
2642 | 2011-05-07 | 2011-07-07 | DavidPercival | 3 | Wrong | Tottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season. |
2643 | 2011-05-07 | 2011-06-07 | DavidPercival | 2 | Wrong | There will be a terrorist attack in the USA in the next month. |
2644 | 2011-05-07 | 2011-05-09 | minhduc | 2 | Right | Liverpool will win Fulham tomorrow |
2645 | 2011-05-07 | 2011-05-08 | minhduc | 2 | Wrong | Chelsea will win Manchester United. |
2646 | 2011-05-07 | 2011-05-28 | minhduc | 3 | Wrong | Chelsea will get the Premier League title this season. |
2649 | 2011-05-07 | 2011-06-16 | wael | 4 | Wrong | Egypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel |
2650 | 2011-05-08 | 2011-07-08 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | The unidentified object in Stockholms archipelago was a submarine |
2651 | 2011-05-08 | 2011-05-22 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "...in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” --Haubert/Brown |
2652 | 2011-05-08 | 2011-10-22 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | “the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” --Haubert/Brown |
2653 | 2011-05-08 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | _Evangelion 3.0_ will open with a scene that has "something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab" |
2654 | 2011-05-08 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | _Evangelion 3.0_: first scene will be flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1 |
2668 | 2011-05-11 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. |
2669 | 2011-05-11 | 2011-05-16 | sailoryoon | 1 | Right | I will finish project management assignment by Monday night. |
2670 | 2011-05-11 | 2011-05-18 | sailoryoon | 1 | Wrong | I will loose weight 2kg before graduation ceremony |
2673 | 2011-05-12 | 2011-05-12 | minhduc | 1 | Right | There will be no one at home when Im back! |
2674 | 2011-05-12 | 2011-06-30 | Mel Eclarinal | 2 | Right | There will be another natural disaster somewhere in the world before the end of June. |
2678 | 2011-05-13 | 2011-05-14 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | More than 5 students will come to my class today |
2679 | 2011-05-13 | 2011-05-14 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | more than 10 students will come to my class today |
2680 | 2011-05-15 | 2011-05-15 | minhduc | 2 | Wrong | Liverpool will beat Tottenham in Anfield tonight |
2681 | 2011-05-15 | 2011-05-17 | minhduc | 1 | Wrong | I will finish The City assignment by Tuesday |
2682 | 2011-05-15 | 2011-05-16 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Sweden will beat Finland in the World Cup final tonight |
2683 | 2011-05-15 | 2011-05-15 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | I'll be the earliest for my meeting tomorrow morning. |
2684 | 2011-05-15 | 2011-05-20 | alvinTng | 1 | Wrong | The note I bought online will arrive by friday. |
2687 | 2011-05-16 | 2011-05-21 | DavidPercival | 2 | Right | My MRI scan on Friday will cost no more than $290 |
2690 | 2011-05-18 | 2011-05-19 | minhduc | 2 | Right | Porto will win Braga tonight. |
2696 | 2011-05-20 | 2020-01-16 | Ben Doherty | 5 | | There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. |
2697 | 2011-05-20 | 2012-11-06 | DavidPercival | 3 | Right | Barack Obama will be reelected in the next US election. |
2701 | 2011-05-22 | 2195-02-16 | gwern | 5 | | '. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis |
2718 | 2011-05-24 | 2011-05-24 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | No more than 5 of my students will meet today's pin up deadline |
2719 | 2011-05-25 | 2011-05-27 | Ben Doherty | 6 | Right | At 3pm this Friday there will be 5 or fewer projects pinned up. |
2720 | 2011-05-25 | 2011-05-27 | Ben Doherty | 5 | Right | 5 or fewer students will present and cover all 4 requirements. |
2721 | 2011-05-25 | 2011-05-27 | Ben Doherty | 2 | Wrong | We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Friday. |
2722 | 2011-05-25 | 2011-08-15 | travis2010 | 3 | Right | Tiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011 |
2723 | 2011-05-25 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | I will finish reading the EML archives by 2012. |
2724 | 2011-05-26 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Final _Gerald F. Ford_-class carrier launched by 2040. |
2725 | 2011-05-26 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft |
2726 | 2011-05-26 | 2027-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | 'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 |
2727 | 2011-05-26 | 2029-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | 'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 |
2728 | 2011-05-26 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | 'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 |
2729 | 2011-05-26 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "The world's first lunar tourist" by 2016 |
2730 | 2011-05-26 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "14 nanometre chips enter mass production" in 2013. |
2731 | 2011-05-26 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | '10 nanometre chips enter mass production' |
2732 | 2011-05-26 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy' |
2733 | 2011-05-27 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | 'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021 |
2734 | 2011-05-27 | 2037-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | "Alzheimer's disease is fully curable" by 2037 |
2735 | 2011-05-27 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | 'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 |
2736 | 2011-05-27 | 2011-05-28 | DavidPercival | 1 | Wrong | My credit card wil be one of the ones blocked by Westpac after the security breach! |
2737 | 2011-05-27 | 2011-05-28 | alvinTng | 1 | Right | The testing of fire alarm will go off again tomorrow morning. |
2738 | 2011-05-28 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | The discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012. |
2739 | 2011-05-28 | 2011-05-28 | minhduc | 2 | Right | After the first half, the result of the match between Manchester and Barcelona will be a draw. |
2740 | 2011-05-28 | 2011-05-28 | minhduc | 2 | Wrong | Messi will not get any goal tonight! |
2741 | 2011-05-28 | 2011-05-29 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Hernández will score the first goal in the CL final |
2742 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-05-30 | Ben Doherty | 2 | Wrong | We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Monday |
2743 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-05-29 | Ye | 1 | Right | I will return all the books from library today. |
2744 | 2011-05-29 | 2013-01-01 | Eunseo | 2 | Right | Korea will keep the record as the first ranking of suicide rate till end of 2011. |
2745 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-05-30 | Eunseo | 2 | Right | I will finish my time line infographic of floating city formation by tommorrow. |
2746 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-06-15 | Eunseo | 5 | Right | I will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation. |
2747 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-05-30 | Jessica Hartany | 2 | Wrong | Vic Steamers will win Monday night's touch footy game. |
2748 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-06-01 | Jessica Hartany | 3 | Wrong | My laptop will get fixed by Wednesday. |
2749 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-05-29 | Ye | 2 | Right | Vettel will win the Monaco Grand Prix. |
2750 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-06-30 | Jessica Hartany | 3 | Right | nevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car - http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/ |
2751 | 2011-05-29 | 2030-12-15 | Jessica Hartany | 8 | | Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html |
2752 | 2011-05-29 | 2011-05-30 | Ye | 1 | Right | It will rain all day today |
2753 | 2011-05-31 | 2011-06-05 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Wrong | Robin Söderling will win French Open 2011 |
2754 | 2011-05-31 | 2011-06-05 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Wrong | Djokovic will win French Open 2011 |
2755 | 2011-05-31 | 2011-06-01 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Wrong | Söderling will beat Nadal in the French Open quarter final |
2756 | 2011-05-31 | 2051-05-31 | nam2001 | 5 | | Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years |
2765 | 2011-06-02 | 2011-06-03 | alvinTng | 1 | Wrong | At least 3 parcels will arrive this afternoon. |
2766 | 2011-06-03 | 2011-06-06 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Bitcoin 'hits $22 before monday' --BrideTrollApprentice |
2767 | 2011-06-04 | 2011-06-06 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Wrong | Federer will beat Nadal in the French Open final |
2768 | 2011-06-04 | 2011-06-04 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Wrong | Jess will be back in the labs before midnight |
2769 | 2011-06-04 | 2011-06-18 | Eunseo | 1 | Right | Sandra will win in prediction competition at the end of semester. |
2770 | 2011-06-04 | 2011-07-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 --the-ace |
2774 | 2011-06-05 | 2013-01-01 | ZrCa | 2 | Right | There will be fewer than 64 new comics posted on http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com between 1.6.2011 and 1.1.2013 |
2775 | 2011-06-06 | 2012-01-06 | DavidPercival | 1 | Wrong | Australian refugees will be processed through Nauru again by the end of 2011. |
2776 | 2011-06-06 | 2012-11-05 | TheHumanite | 7 | Right | Barack Obama will win reelection. |
2780 | 2011-06-07 | 2011-06-08 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | Zlatan will score at least one goal in tonights Euro2012 qualifier |
2785 | 2011-06-07 | 2056-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | 'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C' |
2786 | 2011-06-07 | 2041-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | 'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C' |
2787 | 2011-06-07 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | 'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C' |
2788 | 2011-06-07 | 2055-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | 'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055 |
2789 | 2011-06-07 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | 'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids' |
2790 | 2011-06-07 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'Smart meters in every UK home' |
2791 | 2011-06-07 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | 'The final collapse of the European Union' |
2799 | 2011-06-09 | 2012-06-09 | gwern | 1 | Right | 'Facebook will have an IPO within 1 year: 40% confidence' --Arthur Breitman |
2800 | 2011-06-09 | 2013-06-07 | gwern | 5 | Right | ‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ --Arthur Breitman |
2801 | 2011-06-09 | 2016-06-07 | gwern | 5 | Right | 'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' --Arthur Breitman |
2802 | 2011-06-09 | 2011-06-30 | Saliency | 2 | Right | Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. |
2803 | 2011-06-09 | 2050-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 14 | | Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. |
2804 | 2011-06-12 | 2011-06-12 | Ye | 1 | Wrong | I will finish elective assignment tonight |
2818 | 2011-06-17 | 2028-01-01 | gwern | 28 | | 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg |
2819 | 2011-06-17 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 21 | | 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg |
2820 | 2011-06-18 | 2011-09-18 | tedks | 1 | Withdrawn | In the next 3 months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from end-users of bitcoins who are running the GNU/Linux operating system. |
2821 | 2011-06-18 | 2011-09-18 | tedks | 4 | Right | In the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user's GNU/Linux system being compromised. |
2822 | 2011-06-18 | 2011-12-01 | niekjetten | 11 | Wrong | Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today |
2823 | 2011-06-19 | 2011-09-02 | bobpage | 7 | Wrong | Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC |
2827 | 2011-06-21 | 2012-02-20 | JoshuaZ | 19 | Wrong | Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) |
2830 | 2011-06-22 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Polygamy is granted legal status in the US." |
2831 | 2011-06-22 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each." |
2832 | 2011-06-22 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia." |
2833 | 2011-06-22 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right." |
2838 | 2011-06-27 | 2041-01-01 | gwern | 12 | | P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken |
2839 | 2011-06-27 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 13 | | Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton |
2840 | 2011-06-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | ' No circuit lower bound of {{1000n}} or better will be proved for SAT.' in 2011 --Lipton |
2841 | 2011-06-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'A Computer Scientist will win a Nobel Prize.' --Lipton |
2842 | 2011-06-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.' in 2011 --Lipton |
2843 | 2011-06-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Graph Isomorphism will be proved to be reducible to the Graph Reconstruction Problem.' in 2011 --Lipton |
2844 | 2011-06-27 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 --Lipton |
2845 | 2011-06-27 | 2012-06-27 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Greece will not default on or shave its bondholders. --Stefan Homburg |
2846 | 2011-06-28 | 2013-06-30 | puya | 5 | Wrong | The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan. |
2847 | 2011-06-28 | 2011-08-30 | puya | 3 | Wrong | Mourinho's fear over Barcelona will make him leave Real Madrid in this season. |
2848 | 2011-06-28 | 2014-06-30 | puya | 9 | Wrong | UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. |
2855 | 2011-06-29 | 2011-12-29 | Michael Stevens | 2 | Wrong | Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds |
2856 | 2011-06-29 | 2100-01-01 | gwern | 14 | | the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky |
2866 | 2011-07-02 | 2011-09-02 | Ben Doherty | 4 | Wrong | We will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months |
2871 | 2011-07-02 | 2011-10-10 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel |
2872 | 2011-07-02 | 2011-10-10 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Don Delillo for 2011 Literature Nobel |
2873 | 2011-07-02 | 2011-10-10 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Philip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel |
2876 | 2011-07-03 | 2012-07-03 | ZrCa | 6 | Wrong | "You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now." - Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) |
2883 | 2011-07-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | NGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga. |
2887 | 2011-07-05 | 2011-07-10 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $30 a tonne |
2888 | 2011-07-05 | 2011-07-10 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $40 a tonne |
2905 | 2011-07-10 | 2061-01-01 | gwern | 10 | | By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner |
2910 | 2011-07-11 | 2016-07-11 | gwern | 3 | Right | I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years. |
2911 | 2011-07-12 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article. |
2920 | 2011-07-14 | 2013-01-01 | dakyne | 8 | Wrong | Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. |
2921 | 2011-07-14 | 2011-07-23 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | The final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents. |
2922 | 2011-07-15 | 2015-05-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | From May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP. |
2923 | 2011-07-15 | 2011-08-02 | Sandra Åhlén | 6 | Right | The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 |
2926 | 2011-07-15 | 2016-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | "We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. - from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet," PayPal President Scott Thompson |
2927 | 2011-07-16 | 2013-01-01 | dakyne | 14 | Wrong | Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. |
2928 | 2011-07-17 | 2011-08-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed. |
2929 | 2011-07-18 | 2011-07-27 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | My entry will win the GitP 28th PrC contest. |
2933 | 2011-07-20 | 2011-07-25 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Thomas Voeckler will win Tour de France 2011 |
2934 | 2011-07-20 | 2011-07-25 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Andy Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 |
2935 | 2011-07-20 | 2011-07-25 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Contador will win Tour de France 2011 |
2936 | 2011-07-20 | 2012-11-06 | Jach | 10 | Wrong | Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day |
2937 | 2011-07-21 | 2013-08-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will write programs between January 2013 and July 2013 (inclusive) and do a majority of this programming on a monitor in portrait orientation |
2938 | 2011-07-21 | 2012-03-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012 |
2939 | 2011-07-21 | 2017-07-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | Between January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm |
2940 | 2011-07-21 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 11 | | "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan |
2941 | 2011-07-21 | 2051-02-01 | Konkvistador | 7 | | By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. |
2950 | 2011-07-26 | 2011-07-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | My last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma. |
2954 | 2011-07-28 | 2011-10-31 | scav | 18 | Right | A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. |
2955 | 2011-07-28 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Google will buy Spotify |
2956 | 2011-07-28 | 2011-08-06 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. |
2957 | 2011-07-30 | 2011-08-02 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Right | RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting |
2958 | 2011-07-30 | 2011-09-15 | bobpage | 12 | Wrong | The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 |
2959 | 2011-08-01 | 2011-08-19 | gwern | 2 | Right | I will win the LW SRS contest. |
2968 | 2011-08-03 | 2016-01-16 | papermachine | 12 | Wrong | The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. |
2969 | 2011-08-04 | 2011-09-05 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | MyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances |
2972 | 2011-08-04 | 2013-08-04 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years" --Roger Ver |
2973 | 2011-08-04 | 2011-11-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | I will be accepted by the Good Judgement Team. |
2974 | 2011-08-04 | 2011-11-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | Morendil will be accepted by the Good Jugdgement Team. |
2975 | 2011-08-05 | 2016-08-05 | papermachine | 11 | Wrong | Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. |
2976 | 2011-08-05 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Right | I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2012 |
2977 | 2011-08-05 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. |
2978 | 2011-08-05 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | I will complete the Good Judgment Project and be paid the full honorarium. |
2979 | 2011-08-08 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | Apple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC |
2980 | 2011-08-08 | 2011-09-08 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Roger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month. |
2981 | 2011-08-09 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | I will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC |
2982 | 2011-08-09 | 2012-08-15 | bobpage | 8 | Wrong | By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. |
2987 | 2011-08-09 | 2012-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | The Dow Jones will be at least 10,000 on January 1st, 2012 |
2988 | 2011-08-09 | 2012-09-01 | JoshuaZ | 14 | Right | The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. |
2989 | 2011-08-09 | 2012-02-09 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Right | The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. |
2990 | 2011-08-09 | 2023-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. |
2991 | 2011-08-10 | 2012-04-01 | bobpage | 5 | Right | Next iPad refresh ("iPad 3" or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display |
2992 | 2011-08-10 | 2016-08-10 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. |
2999 | 2011-08-12 | 2046-09-01 | gwern | 5 | | " I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" |
3000 | 2011-08-12 | 2011-08-13 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | Firefox 6 will build correctly on Windows 7 on my first try (note: FF5 built just fine a few months ago) |
3001 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC |
3002 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC |
3003 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC |
3004 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 9 | | India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC |
3005 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 --HSBC |
3006 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC |
3007 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 --HSBC |
3008 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies --HSBC |
3009 | 2011-08-13 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 --HSBC |
3010 | 2011-08-13 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | 'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' --Intrade |
3011 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | 'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' --Intrade |
3012 | 2011-08-13 | 2014-12-31 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | 'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' --Intrade |
3013 | 2011-08-13 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. |
3014 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-08-30 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012' |
3015 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-08-30 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade |
3016 | 2011-08-13 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | "Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012" --Intrade |
3017 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-08-30 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Gary Johnson to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade |
3018 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-08-30 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | "Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade |
3019 | 2011-08-13 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3020 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3021 | 2011-08-13 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3022 | 2011-08-13 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3023 | 2011-08-13 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3024 | 2011-08-13 | 2011-08-13 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll" --Intrade |
3025 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-02-05 | gwern | 2 | Right | "Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012" --Intrade |
3026 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-08-30 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade |
3027 | 2011-08-13 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012" --Intrade |
3028 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary" --Intrade |
3029 | 2011-08-13 | 2012-01-28 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary" --Intrade |
3030 | 2011-08-13 | 2013-12-16 | papermachine | 1 | Withdrawn | Chris Hayes gets his own show on MSNBC before 2014. |
3031 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3032 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3033 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3034 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3035 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Right | "Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3036 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011" |
3037 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011" |
3038 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3039 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" |
3040 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade |
3041 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3042 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3043 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3044 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3045 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade |
3046 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3047 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-06-30 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012" --Intrade |
3048 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3049 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3050 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3051 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3052 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3053 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3054 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3055 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3056 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3057 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3058 | 2011-08-14 | 2014-12-31 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014" --Intrade |
3059 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3060 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3061 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3062 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3063 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3064 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3065 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3066 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3067 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3068 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3069 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3070 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3071 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | "Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3072 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | "Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3073 | 2011-08-14 | 2013-12-31 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | "Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade |
3074 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3075 | 2011-08-14 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3076 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-01-07 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher" --Intrade |
3077 | 2011-08-14 | 2012-01-03 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "125 or more US banks to fail during 2011" --Intrade |
3078 | 2011-08-16 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3079 | 2011-08-16 | 2011-09-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | "Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011" --Intrade |
3080 | 2011-08-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3081 | 2011-08-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | "Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3082 | 2011-08-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | "United States GDP growth for Q2 of 2011 will be positive" --Intrade |
3083 | 2011-08-16 | 2011-08-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011" --Intrade |
3084 | 2011-08-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "The US Economy will go into Recession during 2011" --Intrade |
3085 | 2011-08-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1600 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3086 | 2011-08-16 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3087 | 2011-08-16 | 2011-12-31 | Emanuel Rylke | 7 | Wrong | Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 |
3088 | 2011-08-16 | 2045-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 |
3089 | 2011-08-16 | 2014-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | Harry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013 |
3090 | 2011-08-16 | 2012-11-05 | cmessinger | 10 | Right | Obama will be elected President in 2012 |
3095 | 2011-08-17 | 2012-11-06 | Alexander Kruel | 2 | Right | Obama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012. |
3096 | 2011-08-17 | 2030-01-01 | Alexander Kruel | 19 | | Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 |
3097 | 2011-08-17 | 2030-01-01 | Alexander Kruel | 10 | | By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. |
3098 | 2011-08-17 | 2013-08-17 | Alexander Kruel | 11 | Wrong | I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. |
3099 | 2011-08-17 | 2012-01-01 | Alexander Kruel | 7 | Wrong | Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. |
3103 | 2011-08-18 | 2012-12-16 | Jach | 8 | Right | The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King |
3104 | 2011-08-18 | 2012-12-16 | Jach | 3 | Right | Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 |
3105 | 2011-08-18 | 2013-10-16 | Jach | 4 | Wrong | Nintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones |
3106 | 2011-08-18 | 2016-10-16 | Jach | 10 | Wrong | Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub |
3109 | 2011-08-18 | 2016-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015 |
3110 | 2011-08-18 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Wrong | The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 |
3113 | 2011-08-18 | 2011-12-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn |
3117 | 2011-08-18 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Right | The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. |
3118 | 2011-08-18 | 2011-08-18 | u_ | 1 | Right | cousin_it is the other vladimir |
3119 | 2011-08-18 | 2012-01-16 | Jach | 3 | Right | I will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800 |
3120 | 2011-08-20 | 2012-08-20 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. |
3121 | 2011-08-20 | 2012-08-20 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign. |
3124 | 2011-08-20 | 2011-08-27 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Either of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest |
3125 | 2011-08-20 | 2021-08-20 | gwern | 11 | | "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen |
3128 | 2011-08-22 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. |
3129 | 2011-08-22 | 2013-08-22 | Michael Stevens | 3 | Right | Nokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years |
3130 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Darwin's employer was one of the 6 named billionaires. |
3131 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Darwin's employer was either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi. |
3132 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Darwin's employer was Bezos. |
3133 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Darwin's employer was Peter Thiel. |
3134 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Darwin's employer was Charles Simonyi |
3135 | 2011-08-23 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | 'I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.' --Robert X Cringely |
3136 | 2011-08-23 | 2013-06-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU." --Robert X Cringely |
3137 | 2011-08-23 | 2012-06-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis." --Robert X Cringely |
3138 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 1 |
3139 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 2 |
3140 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 3 |
3141 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Adderall: day 5 |
3142 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 6 |
3143 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 8 |
3144 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 9 |
3145 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Adderall: day 10 |
3146 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Adderall: day 11 |
3147 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Adderall: day 12 |
3148 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 13 |
3149 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 14 |
3150 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Adderall: day 15 |
3151 | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | Adderall: day 16 |
3154 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3155 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3156 | 2011-08-24 | 2011-10-10 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade |
3157 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-03-31 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012" --Intrade |
3158 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-07-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012" --Intrade |
3159 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-10-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012" --Intrade |
3160 | 2011-08-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade |
3161 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | "Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3164 | 2011-08-24 | 2011-08-25 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | A scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC |
3165 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3166 | 2011-08-24 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade |
3167 | 2011-08-24 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" |
3168 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will be the primary developer of an app in Apple's iOS App Store, where such app is published and publicly available before 2012-01-01 UTC |
3169 | 2011-08-24 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade |
3170 | 2011-08-24 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade |
3171 | 2011-08-24 | 2017-01-02 | gwern | 6 | Right | "Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" |
3172 | 2011-08-24 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Right | "Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade |
3173 | 2011-08-24 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade |
3174 | 2011-08-24 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade |
3175 | 2011-08-24 | 2014-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | Between 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard |
3176 | 2011-08-24 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC |
3177 | 2011-08-24 | 2014-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC |
3178 | 2011-08-24 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC |
3179 | 2011-08-24 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 6 | Wrong | Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC |
3180 | 2011-08-24 | 2012-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | I will watch all 26 episodes of Gantz before 2012-01-01 UTC |
3181 | 2011-08-24 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 14 | Right | gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) |
3184 | 2011-08-25 | 2011-08-28 | bobpage | 2 | Right | My DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part |
3185 | 2011-08-25 | 2011-09-02 | bobpage | 1 | Withdrawn | EveryDNS will stop responding to DNS requests before 2011-09-02 00:00 UTC |
3186 | 2011-08-26 | 2011-09-30 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | There will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101. |
3187 | 2011-08-26 | 2011-09-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | My apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene. |
3188 | 2011-08-27 | 2011-08-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | My house will lose power when Hurricane Irene hits. |
3189 | 2011-08-27 | 2011-08-30 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | My house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits. |
3190 | 2011-08-28 | 2013-06-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | 2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP --Michael Pettis |
3191 | 2011-08-28 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | "Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next." --Michael Pettis |
3192 | 2011-08-28 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% --Michael Pettis |
3193 | 2011-08-28 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade" --Michael Pettis |
3194 | 2011-08-28 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% --Michael Pettis |
3195 | 2011-08-28 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro --Michael Pettis |
3196 | 2011-08-28 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth --Michael Pettis |
3197 | 2011-08-29 | 2012-03-15 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Right | I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. |
3200 | 2011-08-29 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?" --Intrade |
3201 | 2011-08-29 | 2011-11-01 | Øx | 8 | Wrong | Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. |
3202 | 2011-08-29 | 2012-03-01 | Øx | 7 | Wrong | Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. |
3203 | 2011-08-29 | 2011-12-01 | Øx | 5 | Wrong | Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project. |
3204 | 2011-08-29 | 2012-01-01 | Øx | 6 | Wrong | Madonna's new movie "W.E." will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes |
3205 | 2011-08-29 | 2011-09-18 | Øx | 5 | Wrong | "Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star" will get an average critic's rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com |
3211 | 2011-08-31 | 2030-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Right | Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. |
3212 | 2011-08-31 | 2045-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 9 | Right | Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. |
3213 | 2011-08-31 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Right | Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. |
3214 | 2011-09-01 | 2011-10-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | amigojapan on #lesswrong will translate a paragraph of the Anno _Toprunner_ show for me. |
3215 | 2011-09-01 | 2011-10-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive |
3216 | 2011-09-01 | 2011-09-04 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday |
3217 | 2011-09-01 | 2012-07-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | The new exchange student from Sweden will last out the full school year. |
3218 | 2011-09-01 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | I will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC |
3219 | 2011-09-02 | 2031-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. |
3220 | 2011-09-02 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Wrong | By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. |
3221 | 2011-09-02 | 2025-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | | By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. |
3222 | 2011-09-02 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 12 | | By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. |
3223 | 2011-09-02 | 2018-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Wrong | By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct. |
3224 | 2011-09-03 | 2012-09-03 | Sandra Åhlén | 7 | Wrong | Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics |
3225 | 2011-09-03 | 2015-09-03 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | Florian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent. |
3226 | 2011-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Wrong | By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. |
3227 | 2011-09-04 | 2012-01-15 | Laurent Bossavit | 4 | Wrong | An e-reader device incorporating an "electrowetting" display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show. |
3228 | 2011-09-04 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme. |
3231 | 2011-09-04 | 2012-09-04 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Right | The "Counterexamples to Relativity" page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year |
3232 | 2011-09-04 | 2012-09-04 | JoshuaZ | 11 | Right | The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin |
3233 | 2011-09-04 | 2012-09-04 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Right | PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. |
3234 | 2011-09-04 | 2011-12-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Right | Before December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB |
3235 | 2011-09-04 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 32 | Right | No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) |
3236 | 2011-09-04 | 2015-11-01 | ArisKatsaris | 22 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black |
3237 | 2011-09-04 | 2015-11-02 | ArisKatsaris | 21 | Right | _HP MoR_: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. |
3240 | 2011-09-05 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011" (excluding death) --Intrade |
3241 | 2011-09-06 | 2012-08-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | (All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. |
3242 | 2011-09-06 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3243 | 2011-09-06 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 11 | Right | GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 |
3244 | 2011-09-06 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | "King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade |
3245 | 2011-09-06 | 2012-03-01 | gwern | 10 | Right | GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 |
3246 | 2011-09-06 | 2012-05-06 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 --Intrade |
3247 | 2011-09-07 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | GJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012 |
3248 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1001: Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011? |
3249 | 2011-09-07 | 2012-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1002: Who will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012? (a) Medvedev |
3250 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1003: Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011? |
3251 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-29 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1004: Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by 30 September 2011? |
3252 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1005: Will Daniel Ortega win another term as President of Nicaragua during the late 2011 elections? |
3253 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011? |
3254 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011? |
3255 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-12-30 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1008: By 31 December 2011, will the World Trade Organization General Council or Ministerial Conference approve the "accession package" for WTO membership for Russia? |
3256 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq? |
3257 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1010: Will the 30 Sept 2011 “last” PPB for Nov 2011 Brent Crude oil futures* exceed $115? |
3258 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1011: Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading at or above 9,500 on 30 September 2011? |
3259 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1012: Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 October 2011? |
3260 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1013: Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1850 on 30 September 2011 (10am ET)? |
3261 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1014: Who will win the September 2011 Guatemalan presidential election, or will a run-off be needed? (c) Other or Run-Off |
3262 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1015: Will Israel's ambassador be formally invited to return to Turkey by 30 September 2011? |
3263 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-10-11 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1016: Will PM Donald Tusk's Civic Platform Party win more seats than any other party in the October 2011 Polish parliamentary elections? |
3264 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1017: Will Robert Mugabe cease to be President of Zimbabwe by 30 September 2011? |
3265 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1018: Will Muqtada al-Sadr formally support for the current Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki by 30 September 2011? |
3266 | 2011-09-07 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1019: Will Ali Abdullah Saleh cease to be Yemen's head of government by 30 September 2011? |
3271 | 2011-09-07 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | NGE: There will not be a live-action _Evangelion_ movie before 2015 |
3272 | 2011-09-07 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Right | NGE: There will not be a live-action _Evangelion_ movie before 2020 |
3273 | 2011-09-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | NGE: Rebuild 3.0 will be released in 2011 |
3274 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2012 |
3275 | 2011-09-07 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2013 |
3276 | 2011-09-07 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2014 |
3277 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012 |
3278 | 2011-09-07 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2013 |
3279 | 2011-09-07 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2014 |
3280 | 2011-09-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015 |
3281 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing _Rebuild_. |
3282 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Hideaki Anno will return to employment at Gainax after _Rebuild_. |
3283 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after _Rebuild_. |
3284 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation |
3285 | 2011-09-07 | 2020-01-03 | gwern | 7 | | NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild |
3286 | 2011-09-07 | 2012-03-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts |
3287 | 2011-09-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: 3.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Die" |
3288 | 2011-09-07 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: 3.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Be Replaced" |
3289 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0. |
3290 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: 3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes |
3291 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes |
3292 | 2011-09-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes |
3293 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-07-26 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoE |
3294 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-07-26 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as the NGE64 variant of EoE |
3295 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild |
3296 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-07-26 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoTV |
3297 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-07-26 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last A |
3298 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-07-26 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last B |
3299 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV |
3300 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped |
3301 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated |
3302 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato |
3303 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu |
3304 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE |
3305 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji |
3306 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka |
3307 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work |
3308 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoE |
3309 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV |
3310 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop) |
3311 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense |
3312 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character) |
3313 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE |
3314 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless |
3315 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: 3.0 or 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji's heroism in _2.0_ and reveal it to be a sham _a la_ Norman Spinrad's _The Iron Dream_ |
3316 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | NGE: The four Children mentioned in the 3.0 preview turn out to be: Shinji, Mari, Kaworu and Asuka |
3317 | 2011-09-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in _3.0_ to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power. |
3318 | 2011-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild. |
3321 | 2011-09-08 | 2011-09-15 | gwern | 1 | Right | OB-NYC: Zvi Mowshowitz asked that question of Salience because he hated _Valhalla Rising_. |
3340 | 2011-09-09 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild Asuka is (was) a genetically modified human |
3341 | 2011-09-09 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka |
3342 | 2011-09-09 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild Lorenz Keel is the Pope |
3343 | 2011-09-09 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0 |
3344 | 2011-09-09 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0 |
3345 | 2011-09-09 | 2011-09-13 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 *before* 7PM PST 13 September 2011 |
3346 | 2011-09-09 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva in 3.0 |
3347 | 2011-09-09 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing |
3351 | 2011-09-09 | 2011-09-16 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | My email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error. |
3352 | 2011-09-09 | 2011-09-10 | bobpage | 3 | Right | I will fix the bug that caused the broken HTML in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2856 today |
3353 | 2011-09-10 | 2011-09-11 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | I will find and contact the real recipient of a Fedex package that was incorrectly delivered to my address |
3354 | 2011-09-10 | 2052-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | | Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 |
3355 | 2011-09-10 | 2011-09-12 | bobpage | 8 | Wrong | There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. |
3356 | 2011-09-10 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Withdrawn | Bitcoinica will be hacked before 2013, resulting in at least partial loss of funds (whether or not customers are affected). |
3357 | 2011-09-11 | 2012-09-11 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Steel_ will have a custom capping business (specify a nootropic mix and have it delivered to you) running in a year. |
3358 | 2011-09-11 | 2041-01-01 | gwern | 11 | | A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. |
3359 | 2011-09-11 | 2021-09-10 | gwern | 20 | | A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 |
3367 | 2011-09-13 | 2020-01-01 | Gedusa | 7 | Right | The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. |
3368 | 2011-09-13 | 2011-09-30 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily |
3369 | 2011-09-13 | 2012-01-01 | Gedusa | 3 | Wrong | Greece will leave the European Union by 2012 |
3376 | 2011-09-14 | 2012-03-14 | Will Newsome | 4 | Wrong | Steve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months. |
3377 | 2011-09-14 | 2051-09-15 | Will Newsome | 23 | | Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. |
3380 | 2011-09-14 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Rebuild Kaworu's body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA) |
3381 | 2011-09-14 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood |
3382 | 2011-09-14 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died |
3383 | 2011-09-14 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact |
3417 | 2011-09-19 | 2012-01-15 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Wrong | SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 |
3418 | 2011-09-19 | 2013-10-16 | papermachine | 5 | Wrong | The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. |
3419 | 2011-09-19 | 2011-11-24 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 |
3422 | 2011-09-20 | 2021-09-16 | papermachine | 11 | | In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). |
3424 | 2011-09-21 | 2013-09-20 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Right | Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. |
3427 | 2011-09-21 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 8 | Wrong | By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. |
3428 | 2011-09-21 | 2041-09-21 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) |
3431 | 2011-09-22 | 2011-12-22 | JoshuaZ | 46 | Wrong | Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. |
3432 | 2011-09-23 | 2012-09-23 | gwern | 38 | Right | 'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' |
3433 | 2011-09-24 | 2011-10-25 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 |
3434 | 2011-09-24 | 2031-09-24 | Will Newsome | 6 | | The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app |
3476 | 2011-09-25 | 2023-01-01 | gwern | 12 | | Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 |
3477 | 2011-09-25 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | Nintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U |
3478 | 2011-09-25 | 2040-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | "By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking." |
3479 | 2011-09-25 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out." |
3480 | 2011-09-25 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy." |
3481 | 2011-09-25 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service" |
3482 | 2011-09-25 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'Completion of the i5K project' by 2017 |
3483 | 2011-09-25 | 2012-04-17 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. |
3484 | 2011-09-25 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | The Gaia mission will launch in 2013 |
3485 | 2011-09-25 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | 'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) |
3486 | 2011-09-25 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Masdar City phase 1 complete |
3487 | 2011-09-25 | 2015-09-10 | gwern | 27 | Right | 'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' |
3488 | 2011-09-25 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. |
3489 | 2011-09-25 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016 |
3490 | 2011-09-25 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | 'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription |
3491 | 2011-09-25 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 |
3492 | 2011-09-25 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018 |
3493 | 2011-09-25 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | 'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' |
3494 | 2011-09-25 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010) |
3501 | 2011-09-26 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | 'India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam' in 2017. |
3502 | 2011-09-26 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | 'The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed' in 2017 |
3503 | 2011-09-26 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 |
3504 | 2011-09-26 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | 'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 |
3505 | 2011-09-26 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | 'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017 |
3506 | 2011-09-26 | 2012-03-26 | Laurablack | 2 | Wrong | Ubs will sell off its investment arm |
3507 | 2011-09-26 | 2011-12-01 | Laurablack | 5 | Right | Vettel to win f1 championship |
3508 | 2011-09-27 | 2013-09-27 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Right | Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. |
3512 | 2011-09-30 | 2011-10-07 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Patrick Macias will reply within a week. |
3515 | 2011-10-01 | 2011-10-15 | Isaac | 3 | Wrong | My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 |
3516 | 2011-10-01 | 2015-01-16 | Isaac | 2 | Wrong | Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 |
3517 | 2011-10-01 | 2020-11-16 | Isaac | 3 | | A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 |
3518 | 2011-10-01 | 2012-02-15 | Isaac | 2 | Right | My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January |
3548 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1020 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011? |
3549 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-02 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? |
3550 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-10-08 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?' |
3551 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-02 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1023 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011? |
3552 | 2011-10-04 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1024 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal? |
3553 | 2011-10-04 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1025 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’b) election in post-Mubarak Egypt? |
3554 | 2011-10-04 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1026 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012? |
3555 | 2011-10-04 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT) |
3556 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-12-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1028 Will Moody’s issue a new downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of the Government of Greece between 3 October 2011 and 30 November 2011? |
3557 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1029 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011? |
3558 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1030 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011? |
3559 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1031 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan? |
3560 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-12-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1032 Will the Japanese government formally announce the decision to buy at least 40 new jet fighters by 30 November 2011? |
3561 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved |
3562 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I |
3563 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel. |
3564 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology |
3565 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu) |
3566 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece |
3567 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life |
3568 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV) |
3569 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | NGE Rebuild: The entity in Terminal Dogma is still Lilith (of NGE TV) in some sense |
3570 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: "Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally." |
3571 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later |
3572 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: There will be no 3rd Impact. |
3573 | 2011-10-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | NGE Rebuild: 3.0 will open in the beginning/middle of an Angel attack a la 2.0 |
3574 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality) |
3575 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide |
3576 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head |
3577 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge |
3578 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again) |
3579 | 2011-10-04 | 2012-09-13 | bobpage | 6 | Wrong | iPhone 5 (not "4S") will launch Sprint-only in the US |
3580 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-10-11 | Gedusa | 10 | Right | There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. |
3581 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-04 | gwern | 5 | Right | LW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. |
3582 | 2011-10-04 | 2014-10-04 | gwern | 25 | Wrong | Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. |
3583 | 2011-10-04 | 2014-10-04 | realitygrill | 1 | Withdrawn | Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. |
3584 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill an Angel |
3585 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill a kitten |
3586 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity |
3587 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide |
3588 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed |
3589 | 2011-10-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to "Kaworu Nagisanami" |
3590 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense |
3591 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point |
3592 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity |
3593 | 2011-10-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0 |
3594 | 2011-10-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0 |
3595 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo |
3596 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand |
3597 | 2011-10-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 |
3598 | 2011-10-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it. |
3599 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato |
3600 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen |
3601 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael |
3602 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does |
3603 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato |
3604 | 2011-10-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms |
3605 | 2011-10-04 | 2011-10-12 | Robert Kosten | 2 | Wrong | Google & Samsung will announce the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich at CTIA on 2011-10-11 |
3606 | 2011-10-05 | 2021-01-01 | roxton | 4 | | When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin. |
3616 | 2011-10-06 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity |
3617 | 2011-10-06 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity |
3618 | 2011-10-06 | 2011-10-13 | gwern | 1 | Right | GiveWell will accept me as a volunteer. |
3622 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending |
3623 | 2011-10-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE manga: Sadamoto's manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji |
3624 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings |
3625 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect |
3626 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 |
3627 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in 3.0 preview) |
3628 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones |
3629 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality |
3630 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending |
3631 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji |
3632 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss |
3633 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV) |
3634 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime) |
3635 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka |
3636 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch |
3637 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0 |
3638 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted |
3639 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major |
3640 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation. |
3641 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's _2.0_ flashback |
3642 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Asuka will have more screentime in _3.0_ than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her) |
3643 | 2011-10-07 | 2061-10-07 | JoshuaZ | 12 | | Chess will be a solved game in 50 years |
3644 | 2011-10-07 | 2061-10-07 | JoshuaZ | 9 | | Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. |
3645 | 2011-10-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Asuka will appear little after _2.0_ and have an unimportant off-screen death |
3646 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: _3.0_ Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself "Asuka Langley Soryu" |
3647 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of |
3648 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight |
3649 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji |
3650 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid |
3651 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over |
3652 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her |
3653 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing |
3654 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la _Re-Take_ (not a human-angel hybrid) |
3655 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo |
3656 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending |
3657 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0 |
3658 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point |
3659 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?' |
3660 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages |
3661 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Mari will attend school as a regular student |
3662 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else |
3663 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi |
3664 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid |
3665 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid |
3666 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva |
3667 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07 |
3668 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia |
3669 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one |
3670 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense |
3671 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley |
3672 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half |
3673 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse |
3674 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji |
3675 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE |
3676 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE |
3677 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group |
3678 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans |
3679 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo |
3680 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch |
3681 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in _3.0_ or _4.0_ |
3682 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka |
3683 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV |
3684 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01 |
3685 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji |
3686 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07 |
3687 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08 |
3688 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | NGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready |
3689 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | NGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva |
3690 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be nonoperational |
3691 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be scrapped |
3692 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning |
3693 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari |
3694 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel |
3695 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam |
3696 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka |
3697 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji |
3698 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari |
3699 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei |
3700 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from _Girlfriend of Steel_ |
3701 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi |
3702 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense |
3703 | 2011-10-07 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in _3.0_ |
3704 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in _4.0_ |
3705 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat |
3706 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed |
3707 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith |
3708 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei |
3709 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva |
3710 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 |
3711 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot |
3712 | 2011-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in _1.0_ or _2.0_ |
3713 | 2011-10-07 | 2011-10-22 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | Harold Camping: "the whole world...will be annihilated together with the whole physical world" |
3714 | 2011-10-07 | 2011-10-13 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | 'I predict...a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' |
3715 | 2011-10-07 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. |
3716 | 2011-10-07 | 2020-01-01 | bobpage | 26 | Wrong | "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." |
3717 | 2011-10-07 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 13 | | ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King |
3718 | 2011-10-07 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | "No American Soap Operas by 2015" --Ken |
3719 | 2011-10-07 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 15 | Wrong | "I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company" --Whutsiznaim |
3720 | 2011-10-07 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." --chinapatriot |
3721 | 2011-10-08 | 2011-10-12 | Sandra Åhlén | 2 | Right | Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up |
3722 | 2011-10-08 | 2011-11-16 | Sandra Åhlén | 1 | Wrong | Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 after play-offs |
3723 | 2011-10-08 | 2013-06-13 | gwern | 6 | Right | "About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008." --Kevin Kelly |
3731 | 2011-10-08 | 2012-10-01 | Kaj_Sotala | 4 | Wrong | By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people. |
3732 | 2011-10-08 | 2014-01-01 | Kaj_Sotala | 6 | Wrong | I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. |
3733 | 2011-10-08 | 2014-01-01 | Kaj_Sotala | 6 | Wrong | I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013. |
3750 | 2011-10-09 | 2026-10-09 | anandjeyahar | 12 | Wrong | CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. |
3751 | 2011-10-09 | 2011-11-08 | chemotaxis101 | 3 | Wrong | By november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application. |
3753 | 2011-10-09 | 2014-12-31 | chemotaxis101 | 3 | Wrong | I will have completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering by the end of 2014. |
3754 | 2011-10-09 | 2012-11-07 | chemotaxis101 | 16 | Wrong | Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. |
3755 | 2011-10-09 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 7 | Wrong | Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org |
3763 | 2011-10-10 | 2011-10-14 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | I will record a sub 20 minute time in the first ABC bi that I do http://goo.gl/BCmJt |
3764 | 2011-10-10 | 2012-03-30 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | I will record a sub 20 minute time in any ABC bi that I do this season - http://goo.gl/BCmJt |
3776 | 2011-10-10 | 2011-11-30 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | In Sanderson's "Allow of Law" it will turn out that either Marasi or Steris is (or becomes) a full Mistborn or a full Feruchemist. |
3777 | 2011-10-10 | 2060-01-01 | bobpage | 19 | | Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 |
3778 | 2011-10-10 | 2060-01-01 | bobpage | 8 | | Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 |
3779 | 2011-10-10 | 2036-10-10 | JoshuaZ | 10 | | Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. |
3784 | 2011-10-10 | 2012-12-22 | Daniel Mehkeri | 43 | Right | The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) |
3791 | 2011-10-11 | 2011-10-11 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | A PredictionBook Wikipedia page will be created within the next 30 minutes. |
3792 | 2011-10-11 | 2011-10-26 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Right | The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. |
3793 | 2011-10-11 | 2011-11-11 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Right | The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. |
3794 | 2011-10-11 | 2012-07-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | "Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012." |
3795 | 2011-10-11 | 2013-07-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Right | "S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating." |
3796 | 2011-10-11 | 2012-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 8 | Wrong | Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. |
3797 | 2011-10-11 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 8 | Right | Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. |
3798 | 2011-10-11 | 2012-10-11 | gwern | 4 | Right | The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. |
3799 | 2011-10-11 | 2013-10-11 | gwern | 4 | Right | The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. |
3800 | 2011-10-11 | 2011-10-12 | chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com | 1 | Wrong | Tristan's teacher will report that Tristan is unhappy today. He may or may not talk about having to move. |
3801 | 2011-10-11 | 2011-10-12 | bobpage | 1 | Right | Critical Windows updates will be released today (UTC) |
3806 | 2011-10-12 | 2011-10-31 | Codyz | 2 | Wrong | BMNDR will nontrivially improve my study habits by October 31st. |
3811 | 2011-10-12 | 2011-10-13 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | My Modalert will arrive today. |
3812 | 2011-10-12 | 2011-10-14 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | My Modalert will arrive tomorrow. |
3813 | 2011-10-12 | 2011-10-15 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | My Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow. |
3814 | 2011-10-12 | 2011-12-01 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | Chrome will ship with the initial release of Android "Ice Cream Sandwich" |
3815 | 2011-10-12 | 2012-12-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | Chrome will ship with the first public release of Android "Jelly Bean" (or whatever the major version after "Ice Cream Sandwich" is called) |
3816 | 2011-10-12 | 2012-12-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes |
3817 | 2011-10-12 | 2011-10-13 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will feel sick again when I donate blood today. |
3836 | 2011-10-13 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Google Knol will be shutdown in 2011 |
3837 | 2011-10-13 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | Google Knol will be shutdown in 2012 |
3838 | 2011-10-13 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Google Knol will be shutdown in 2013 |
3839 | 2011-10-13 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Google Knol will be shutdown in 2014 |
3840 | 2011-10-13 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Google Knol will be shutdown in 2015 |
3841 | 2011-10-13 | 2017-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Google Knol will be shutdown in 2016 |
3842 | 2011-10-13 | 2011-10-20 | Codyz | 1 | Right | The Texas Rangers will win the ALCS |
3847 | 2011-10-15 | 2025-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 15 | | By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. |
3848 | 2011-10-15 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. |
3849 | 2011-10-15 | 2045-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. |
3852 | 2011-10-15 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. |
3853 | 2011-10-15 | 2045-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. |
3854 | 2011-10-15 | 2055-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. |
3855 | 2011-10-15 | 2055-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. |
3856 | 2011-10-15 | 2026-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. |
3857 | 2011-10-15 | 2065-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. |
3858 | 2011-10-15 | 2075-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. |
3859 | 2011-10-15 | 2034-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 9 | | By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. |
3860 | 2011-10-15 | 2011-12-25 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Wrong | Fobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011. |
3861 | 2011-10-15 | 2020-03-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Wrong | Fobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020 |
3862 | 2011-10-16 | 2011-10-16 | bobpage | 1 | Right | D will call me back today |
3863 | 2011-10-16 | 2011-10-16 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | D will visit me today |
3875 | 2011-10-17 | 2011-10-18 | Isaac | 4 | Wrong | I will go to the gym tomorrow |
3876 | 2011-10-17 | 2011-10-22 | Isaac | 3 | Wrong | I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday |
3877 | 2011-10-17 | 2019-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Wrong | Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 |
3878 | 2011-10-17 | 2025-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 13 | | Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 |
3885 | 2011-10-17 | 2011-10-17 | Isaac | 1 | Wrong | I will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes |
3886 | 2011-10-17 | 2012-12-16 | Nieskens | 6 | Wrong | Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. |
3889 | 2011-10-18 | 2011-10-23 | Arkanj3l | 3 | Wrong | I will "flatline", i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence. |
3890 | 2011-10-18 | 2011-10-21 | Arkanj3l | 3 | Wrong | My penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days. |
3897 | 2011-10-19 | 2011-11-30 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Right | No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. |
3898 | 2011-10-19 | 2011-11-03 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | ROSAT will reenter by November 2 |
3899 | 2011-10-19 | 2012-02-05 | Jayson Virissimo | 11 | Wrong | "Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012" -Intrade |
3900 | 2011-10-19 | 2011-10-26 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | I will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days. |
3901 | 2011-10-19 | 2011-10-21 | beo_shaffer | 3 | Wrong | The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/'s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday |
3902 | 2011-10-19 | 2011-11-15 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | ROSAT will reenter by November 15 |
3903 | 2011-10-19 | 2100-01-01 | bobpage | 8 | | At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. |
3904 | 2011-10-20 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox |
3908 | 2011-10-20 | 2011-10-20 | siodine | 3 | Wrong | Someone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook. |
3909 | 2011-10-20 | 2012-01-31 | Arkanj3l | 12 | Wrong | I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. |
3940 | 2011-10-21 | 2011-10-22 | divad12 | 1 | Right | I will sleep at 2 am (in bed) for waking up at 9:10 am on Saturday. |
3941 | 2011-10-21 | 2011-10-22 | divad12 | 3 | Right | i will use prediction book tomorrow |
3951 | 2011-10-21 | 2011-10-29 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | My average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week. |
3952 | 2011-10-21 | 2070-01-01 | bobpage | 13 | | Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. |
3953 | 2011-10-21 | 2012-10-21 | JMArchitect | 4 | Wrong | Last.fm will become intertwined with Facebook, and take the spotlight away from Spotify. |
3954 | 2011-10-21 | 2013-10-21 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | Konkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea |
3958 | 2011-10-22 | 2012-08-01 | sdenheyer | 5 | Wrong | The TV show "Grimm" will be canceled in it's first season. |
3959 | 2011-10-22 | 2012-08-01 | sdenheyer | 2 | Wrong | The show "Once Upon a Time" will be canceled within it's first season. |
3965 | 2011-10-22 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | Apple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013. |
3966 | 2011-10-22 | 2011-10-23 | divad12 | 1 | Wrong | I will sleep at 1 am tonight. |
3967 | 2011-10-22 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. |
3968 | 2011-10-22 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. |
3969 | 2011-10-22 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. |
3970 | 2011-10-22 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. |
3973 | 2011-10-23 | 2011-11-25 | Jach | 2 | Right | LoZ: Skyward Sword will receive an IGN score of 9.8/10 or higher |
3976 | 2011-10-23 | 2011-11-23 | torekp | 14 | Right | Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. |
3977 | 2011-10-23 | 2021-10-23 | gwern | 3 | | econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated |
3978 | 2011-10-23 | 2012-01-01 | bobpage | 6 | Wrong | Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both) |
3995 | 2011-10-24 | 2012-10-31 | dhoe | 5 | Right | Dutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012 |
4012 | 2011-10-25 | 2011-10-26 | divad12 | 1 | Wrong | Launch my KA proficiency model change by the end of today (Oct. 25). |
4020 | 2011-10-26 | 2012-02-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | "iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012" -ipredict |
4021 | 2011-10-26 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | "Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014" -intrade |
4022 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-10-27 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. |
4023 | 2011-10-26 | 2012-01-01 | muflax | 2 | Wrong | Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2011. |
4024 | 2011-10-26 | 2013-01-01 | muflax | 2 | Right | Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012. |
4025 | 2011-10-26 | 2014-01-01 | muflax | 3 | Wrong | Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. |
4026 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 3 | Right | Dexter season 6: Prof. Gellar is a hallucination, similar to Dexter's dad. |
4027 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: lab girl is more than a thief. |
4028 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: lab girl is a serial killer. |
4029 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: lab girl is (specifically) a Dexter fangirl. |
4030 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: Travis Marshall is not the final villain. |
4031 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 1 | Right | Dexter season 6: Brother Sam dies. |
4032 | 2011-10-26 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: Brother Sam deconverts. |
4033 | 2011-10-26 | 2013-01-01 | muflax | 5 | Wrong | Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. |
4034 | 2011-10-26 | 2013-01-01 | muflax | 3 | Right | LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success. |
4035 | 2011-10-26 | 2013-01-01 | muflax | 2 | Wrong | LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up. |
4036 | 2011-10-26 | 2014-01-01 | muflax | 3 | Wrong | At least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013. |
4037 | 2011-10-26 | 2013-01-01 | muflax | 1 | Withdrawn | There will be a new (upvoted) argument against wireheading on LW until 2013. |
4038 | 2011-10-26 | 2012-01-01 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | I will publish another article on my site this year. |
4039 | 2011-10-26 | 2012-01-01 | muflax | 3 | Wrong | Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year. |
4046 | 2011-10-27 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | "Lamborghini to announce, before 2013, commercial production of a four door vehicle" -ipredict |
4047 | 2011-10-27 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Right | "Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012" -ipredict |
4048 | 2011-10-27 | 2011-10-27 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | iqtest.dk will give me a higher score when I don't answer any questions |
4052 | 2011-10-28 | 2012-10-28 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will average at least one prediction per week on PredictionBook for the next year. |
4053 | 2011-10-28 | 2011-11-25 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | I will read "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks. |
4054 | 2011-10-28 | 2011-11-05 | Metus | 1 | Wrong | Three people will join this prediction until friday. |
4055 | 2011-10-28 | 2011-11-05 | Metus | 3 | Wrong | Five people will join this prediction until friday. |
4056 | 2011-10-28 | 2011-11-05 | Metus | 3 | Wrong | The people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average. |
4057 | 2011-10-28 | 2011-11-05 | Metus | 7 | Wrong | The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. |
4060 | 2011-10-29 | 2012-03-01 | gsaines | 1 | Withdrawn | The Skritter iOS app will make at least $5,000,000 in the first year after launch. |
4092 | 2011-10-30 | 2011-11-20 | Isaac | 2 | Wrong | I will get over a 90 on all 3 of my upcoming tests this week (Math, Biology, US History) |
4093 | 2011-10-30 | 2011-11-13 | Isaac | 1 | Right | I will get over a 79 on my Biology test |
4103 | 2011-10-31 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | I will write a 300+ line Clojure/ClojureScript program before 2013 |
4104 | 2011-10-31 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Right | I will use org-mode at least 180/365 days in 2012 |
4105 | 2011-10-31 | 2012-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | I will read at least a third of Getting Things Done before 2012 |
4106 | 2011-10-31 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will buy a MacBook Air before 2013 |
4107 | 2011-10-31 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013 |
4112 | 2011-10-31 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013. |
4113 | 2011-10-31 | 2011-11-14 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days. |
4123 | 2011-10-31 | 2014-06-08 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% --David Dalrymple |
4124 | 2011-10-31 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% --David Dalrymple |
4125 | 2011-10-31 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Next 3 Turing Award winners will be a subset of Shor/Herlihy/Stallman/Szegedy/Dally --kenjackson |
4128 | 2011-11-01 | 2012-01-01 | muflax | 13 | Right | LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. |
4138 | 2011-11-02 | 2021-11-01 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | | Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. |
4139 | 2011-11-02 | 2012-11-07 | NathanMcKnight | 9 | Right | Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. |
4140 | 2011-11-02 | 2111-11-02 | steve1interstock | 10 | | The "technological singularity" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. |
4141 | 2011-11-02 | 2017-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 18 | Withdrawn | Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. |
4142 | 2011-11-02 | 2012-11-16 | montsamu | 1 | Withdrawn | Barack Obama will be re-elected president of the United States. |
4143 | 2011-11-02 | 2012-11-11 | MuscleCBT | 18 | Wrong | President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. |
4144 | 2011-11-02 | 2014-11-02 | Fledi | 13 | Wrong | The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. |
4145 | 2011-11-02 | 2014-09-09 | lionflower | 12 | Wrong | Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. |
4148 | 2011-11-03 | 2011-12-03 | muflax | 3 | Right | I will still use Beeminder in a month. |
4149 | 2011-11-03 | 2022-01-01 | gwern | 12 | | 'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker |
4150 | 2011-11-03 | 2012-01-16 | eduffy | 10 | Wrong | Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 |
4157 | 2011-11-04 | 2011-11-19 | sucrenoir | 9 | Wrong | Greece will quit euro |
4158 | 2011-11-04 | 2014-01-01 | sameganegie | 27 | Wrong | Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) |
4159 | 2011-11-04 | 2012-07-01 | sucrenoir | 2 | Right | AAPL share prices will reach $500 before July 2012 |
4160 | 2011-11-04 | 2012-12-16 | Joe Craig | 8 | Wrong | United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. |
4161 | 2011-11-04 | 2013-11-04 | thaprophet | 5 | Wrong | This web project will be closed down before most of the long term predictions can be judged. |
4162 | 2011-11-04 | 2016-01-01 | Joe Craig | 2 | Wrong | Groupon will be delisted in 2015. |
4163 | 2011-11-04 | 2012-11-07 | HonoreDB | 29 | Right | Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. |
4164 | 2011-11-04 | 2011-11-07 | hackedtobits | 3 | Wrong | The Baltimore Ravens will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on 2011-11-06. |
4165 | 2011-11-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in _4.0_. |
4166 | 2011-11-04 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | NGE: There will be live-action at some point in _Rebuild_. |
4167 | 2011-11-04 | 2012-09-01 | richardbliss | 2 | Right | A game project which is non-video will raise more than $100,000 on Kickstarter by August 31, 2012 |
4168 | 2011-11-04 | 2013-01-01 | richardbliss | 1 | Right | Kickstarter will generate more than $2.5 million USD in successfully funded game projects that are non-video related in 2012 |
4184 | 2011-11-06 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | "The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012." -intrade |
4185 | 2011-11-06 | 2012-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | "NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders" -ipredict |
4186 | 2011-11-06 | 2012-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | "NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for China passport holders" -ipredict |
4187 | 2011-11-06 | 2011-11-13 | Laurent Bossavit | 5 | Right | Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) |
4188 | 2011-11-06 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Withdrawn | If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 1. |
4189 | 2011-11-06 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Right | If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. |
4190 | 2011-11-06 | 2011-11-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will schedule an appointment to visit a doctor by the end of this week. |
4191 | 2011-11-06 | 2012-06-08 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will obtain a PS3 on or before 6/8/2012. |
4192 | 2011-11-06 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word "democracy" or "democratic" in their government type variable. |
4197 | 2011-11-07 | 2013-06-16 | Laurent Bossavit | 1 | Wrong | Most of the modules in Ruby's "stdlib" will be packaged and referenced as gems in release 2.0. (See http://bit.ly/uIRu4n) |
4206 | 2011-11-07 | 2012-02-15 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | Dan's RTC abstract will be accepted |
4207 | 2011-11-07 | 2012-02-15 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | Both RTC abstracts will be accepted |
4208 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-07-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | GJP: #1040 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012? |
4209 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-06-02 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1037 Will Greece remain a member of the EU through 1 June 2012? |
4210 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-06-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1036 Will media reports indicate that Iraq has experienced a military coup (or attempted coup) before 1 June 2012? |
4211 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-04-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1035 Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution concerning Iran by 1 April 2012? |
4212 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-03-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1034 Will Japan officially become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership before 1 March 2012? |
4213 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | GJP: #1039 Will Bashar al-Assad remain President of Syria through 31 January 2012? |
4214 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | GJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012? |
4215 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-01-02 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1042 Will Lucas Papademos be the next Prime Minister of Greece? |
4216 | 2011-11-08 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | GJP: #1041 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012? |
4217 | 2011-11-08 | 2011-11-16 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1033 Will the Tunisian Ennahda party officially announce the formation of an interim coalition government by 15 November 2011? |
4223 | 2011-11-08 | 2011-12-01 | gwern | 8 | Right | "Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011" --Intrade |
4227 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | Before 2013, a new version of Chrome will be released with support for Side Tabs or vertical tabs, or there will be an equivalent or better extension that implements this functionality |
4228 | 2011-11-10 | 2011-12-01 | muflax | 3 | Right | I will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month. |
4229 | 2011-11-10 | 2043-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | | The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. |
4230 | 2011-11-10 | 2012-11-07 | Jayson Virissimo | 10 | Wrong | If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. |
4231 | 2011-11-10 | 2012-11-07 | Jayson Virissimo | 8 | Right | Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. |
4232 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Right | The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. |
4233 | 2011-11-10 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015. |
4234 | 2011-11-10 | 2012-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | "Rupert Murdoch to announce departure as chairman of News Corporation before 2012" -ipredict |
4235 | 2011-11-10 | 2012-03-31 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete every exercise in the first 10 chapters of Introduction to Java Programming by Y. Daniel Liang before the end of March, 30th, 2012. |
4236 | 2011-11-10 | 2020-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Wrong | The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. |
4237 | 2011-11-10 | 2020-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 12 | Wrong | In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. |
4238 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 8 | Wrong | Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4239 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 9 | Wrong | Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4240 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Wrong | Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4241 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Right | Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4242 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | I will watch all of the second season of Game of Thrones, before 2013 |
4243 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4244 | 2011-11-10 | 2012-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will like the second season of Top Shot more than the first. |
4245 | 2011-11-10 | 2012-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Right | I will finish my voice recording+transcription viewer before 2012 |
4246 | 2011-11-10 | 2011-11-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | Cain Velasquez will defeat Junior Dos Santos in their fight on November, 12th. |
4247 | 2011-11-10 | 2011-11-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Ben Henderson will defeat Clay Guida in their fight on November, 12th. |
4248 | 2011-11-10 | 2011-11-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Dustin Poirier will defeat Pablo Garza in their fight on November, 12th. |
4249 | 2011-11-10 | 2011-11-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Ricardo Lamas will defeat Cub Swanson in their fight on November, 12th. |
4250 | 2011-11-10 | 2011-11-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | DaMarques Johnson will defeat Clay Harvison in their fight on November, 12th. |
4251 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Right | Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4252 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 11 | Wrong | Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4253 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Right | Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4254 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4255 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Wrong | Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4256 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4257 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. |
4258 | 2011-11-10 | 2012-01-11 | RobertLumley | 1 | Wrong | LSU will win the BCS national championship for the 2011 season. |
4274 | 2011-11-10 | 2013-01-01 | muflax | 5 | Right | I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. |
4275 | 2011-11-10 | 2014-01-01 | muflax | 7 | Right | I will still be alive in 2013. |
4279 | 2011-11-11 | 2036-01-01 | amcknight | 13 | | 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 |
4280 | 2011-11-11 | 2011-11-18 | Anubhav | 9 | Right | I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. |
4287 | 2011-11-11 | 2012-01-02 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal |
4288 | 2011-11-11 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 |
4289 | 2011-11-11 | 2017-12-26 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Wrong | Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one "Super Earth" exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. |
4290 | 2011-11-11 | 2012-08-30 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Withdrawn | Herman Cain's vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be at least two standard deviations lower than his averaged poll numbers at the time. |
4291 | 2011-11-11 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). |
4292 | 2011-11-11 | 2013-11-06 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Wrong | Members of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an "Occupy Caucus" with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections. |
4293 | 2011-11-11 | 2021-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 11 | | At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. |
4294 | 2011-11-11 | 2012-11-07 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Right | Barack Obama will win Ohio's electoral votes in the 2012 election. |
4295 | 2011-11-11 | 2013-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | Iran will successfully launch a monkey into space by the end of 2012. |
4296 | 2011-11-11 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | I will re-subscribe to Netflix at any point before 2013 |
4301 | 2011-11-11 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 10 | | Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. |
4302 | 2011-11-11 | 2035-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 31 | | Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. |
4303 | 2011-11-11 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 8 | Wrong | The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. |
4304 | 2011-11-11 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 10 | | A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. |
4305 | 2011-11-11 | 2013-11-11 | Matt | 1 | Right | The Indian place on the site of Bagatelles will be out of business inside 2 years. |
4308 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-11-07 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Right | A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. |
4309 | 2011-11-12 | 2015-11-01 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Wrong | By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. |
4310 | 2011-11-12 | 2112-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. |
4311 | 2011-11-12 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | | By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. |
4312 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-09-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | I will play multiplayer UT2004 for over 4 hours before 2012-09 |
4315 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 3 | Right | I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this year. |
4316 | 2011-11-12 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 10 | | By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using "3D printing" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. |
4317 | 2011-11-12 | 2013-01-01 | fork | 1 | Right | AZEALIA BANKS - 212 FT. LAZY JAY will reach 5 million youtube views by the end of 2012. |
4318 | 2011-11-12 | 2021-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 14 | Right | "3D printing" will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. |
4319 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-11-08 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Right | At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. |
4320 | 2011-11-12 | 2015-01-01 | fork | 1 | Wrong | Steam or Origin will offer a cloud based gaming solution ala onlive.com by 2015. |
4321 | 2011-11-12 | 2020-01-01 | fork | 5 | Wrong | The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. |
4322 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 4 | Wrong | I will have played Fate/stay night by the end of this year. |
4323 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-06-01 | fork | 1 | Right | Jack & Jill will earn 150% of its budget despite being a terrible film. |
4324 | 2011-11-12 | 2015-01-01 | fork | 10 | Right | predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. |
4325 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-02-12 | ceterisparibus | 22 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. |
4328 | 2011-11-12 | 2016-11-12 | ARFisk | 6 | Wrong | By 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety. |
4329 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-12-12 | shokwave | 2 | Wrong | YF will order modafinil within a month. |
4330 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-12-12 | shokwave | 3 | Wrong | MC will order modafinil within one month |
4331 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-11-19 | shokwave | 3 | Wrong | I will have the Stanford ai-class anki deck up-to-date by the start of the midterm exams. |
4332 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-11-12 | shokwave | 2 | Right | TS will say e plans to undertake a PhD in immunology |
4333 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-11-12 | shokwave | 2 | Right | I won't sleep tonight |
4334 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-11-17 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Right | Obama will be favored to win the election by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets (both vote share and winner take all) within a few days of tonight's Republican debate. |
4335 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-11-08 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | In 2012, Democrats will make gains in both the House and Senate, but will fail to wrest control of the Senate from the GOP. |
4336 | 2011-11-12 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | | By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. |
4337 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-12-01 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | Wrong | By the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed. |
4338 | 2011-11-12 | 2013-01-01 | fork | 7 | Right | The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections - Intrade |
4339 | 2011-11-12 | 2011-12-13 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Wrong | Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. |
4340 | 2011-11-12 | 2013-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 10 | Right | At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. |
4341 | 2011-11-12 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | | By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. |
4342 | 2011-11-12 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | | By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating "rogue planet". |
4343 | 2011-11-12 | 2013-11-12 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Right | Within two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely) |
4344 | 2011-11-12 | 2013-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | For my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users. |
4345 | 2011-11-12 | 2012-11-07 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Wrong | At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about "anti-capitalism". |
4348 | 2011-11-12 | 2050-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | | By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. |
4352 | 2011-11-13 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | My continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012 |
4353 | 2011-11-13 | 2013-01-01 | procran | 11 | Right | Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 |
4361 | 2011-11-14 | 2011-12-18 | muflax | 3 | Right | Dexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer. |
4362 | 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | shokwave | 1 | Right | I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 correct 4/4 |
4363 | 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | shokwave | 1 | Right | I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 mostly correct: 3/4 |
4364 | 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | shokwave | 1 | Right | I will get ai-class homework question 5.2 right. (12/12 - there are four rows of 3 answers each) |
4365 | 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | shokwave | 1 | Right | I will get ai-class homework 5.2 mostly right (3 out of 4 rows completely right) |
4366 | 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | shokwave | 1 | Right | I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 right (yes/no on a grid of 40 squares testing if you following a simple policy correctly) |
4367 | 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | shokwave | 1 | Right | I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 mostly right (30/40) |
4377 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-12-15 | divad12 | 4 | Right | I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. |
4378 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-12-31 | leejhancox | 5 | Withdrawn | The considerable increase in this sites visitors will inspire some activity in promoting the product. I predict a prediction book facebook page by Dec 31st 2011 |
4379 | 2011-11-15 | 9999-01-02 | RobertLumley | 2 | Withdrawn | Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than 50%. |
4380 | 2011-11-15 | 9999-01-02 | RobertLumley | 6 | Withdrawn | Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. |
4381 | 2011-11-15 | 9999-01-02 | RobertLumley | 4 | Withdrawn | Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%. |
4382 | 2011-11-15 | 9999-01-02 | RobertLumley | 2 | Withdrawn | Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 0%. |
4383 | 2011-11-15 | 9999-01-02 | RobertLumley | 4 | Withdrawn | Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the median estimate on this prediction will be 50%. |
4384 | 2011-11-15 | 9999-01-02 | RobertLumley | 4 | Withdrawn | Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%. |
4385 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-12-15 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | {__slots__} will be added to NamedConstant before it is first merged to trunk |
4388 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-26 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete all of the chapter 4 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-26. |
4389 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-12-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03. |
4390 | 2011-11-15 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Right | I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. |
4391 | 2011-11-15 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will join the military before 2015. |
4392 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-15 | fnedrik | 1 | Wrong | We will get a bid for 1.9 or better today |
4393 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-18 | fnedrik | 1 | Right | I will win in WordFeud against toffe |
4394 | 2011-11-15 | 2025-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 12 | | The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. |
4395 | 2011-11-15 | 2025-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 19 | | The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. |
4396 | 2011-11-15 | 2025-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 23 | | The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. |
4397 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Bader will defeat Brilz at UFC 139. |
4398 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | Bailey will defeat Castillo at UFC 139. |
4399 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Bonnar will defeat Kingsbury at UFC 139. |
4400 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | Brown will defeat Baczynski at UFC 139. |
4401 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Faber will defeat Bowles at UFC 139. |
4402 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Kampmann will defeat Story at UFC 139. |
4403 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Weidman will defeat Lawlor at UFC 139. |
4404 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | McDonald will defeat Soto at UFC 139. |
4405 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | Rua will defeat Henderson at UFC 139. |
4406 | 2011-11-15 | 2050-01-01 | michaelanissimov | 25 | | The Singularity will occur by 2050. |
4407 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | Le will defeat Silva at UFC 139. |
4408 | 2011-11-15 | 2011-11-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Tibau will defeat dos Anjos at UFC 139. |
4427 | 2011-11-16 | 2013-11-16 | Jayson Virissimo | 16 | Wrong | "Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years." |
4428 | 2011-11-16 | 2012-02-22 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | "New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter" -ipredict |
4431 | 2011-11-16 | 2085-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 13 | | By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 |
4432 | 2011-11-16 | 2036-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 9 | | By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 |
4433 | 2011-11-16 | 2045-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 12 | | By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 |
4439 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-11-30 | Harbinger1 | 10 | | HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. |
4440 | 2011-11-17 | 2029-12-31 | Harbinger1 | 8 | | The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. |
4441 | 2011-11-17 | 2020-11-30 | Harbinger1 | 2 | | New medical breakthrough will revolutionize battlefield care by late 2020. |
4442 | 2011-11-17 | 2029-01-16 | Harbinger1 | 9 | | The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. |
4443 | 2011-11-17 | 2040-01-16 | Harbinger1 | 11 | | World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. |
4444 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-01-16 | Harbinger1 | 14 | | Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. |
4445 | 2011-11-17 | 2027-01-01 | Harbinger1 | 12 | | Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. |
4446 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-12-16 | Harbinger1 | 6 | | Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025. |
4447 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-11-17 | Harbinger1 | 15 | | Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. |
4448 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-06-30 | Harbinger1 | 1 | | The collective Internet (CI) will be available on a chip by 2025. |
4449 | 2011-11-17 | 2029-12-27 | Harbinger1 | 8 | | Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. |
4450 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-12-27 | Harbinger1 | 3 | | Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025. |
4451 | 2011-11-17 | 2022-12-30 | Harbinger1 | 10 | | Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness. |
4452 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-12-16 | Harbinger1 | 8 | | Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. |
4453 | 2011-11-17 | 2026-06-30 | Harbinger1 | 2 | | The first "worldwide classroom" will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026. |
4454 | 2011-11-17 | 2029-12-31 | Harbinger1 | 2 | | By 2029, the "worldwide classroom" (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide. |
4455 | 2011-11-17 | 2021-12-16 | Harbinger1 | 4 | | World currences will become truly "credit-based" by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. |
4456 | 2011-11-17 | 2050-12-16 | Harbinger1 | 14 | | Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. |
4457 | 2011-11-17 | 2040-11-17 | Harbinger1 | 6 | | Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. |
4458 | 2011-11-17 | 2028-12-27 | Harbinger1 | 8 | | Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. |
4459 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-12-16 | Harbinger1 | 1 | | Gangs and gang-affiliations will be outlawed and considered terrorist organisations by 2025. |
4460 | 2011-11-17 | 2026-11-30 | Harbinger1 | 20 | | A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. |
4461 | 2011-11-17 | 2065-12-01 | Harbinger1 | 12 | | The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. |
4462 | 2011-11-17 | 2020-08-30 | Harbinger1 | 20 | | The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. |
4463 | 2011-11-17 | 2029-12-01 | Harbinger1 | 18 | | Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. |
4466 | 2011-11-17 | 2036-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 14 | | The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 |
4467 | 2011-11-17 | 2046-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 14 | | The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 |
4468 | 2011-11-17 | 2022-12-31 | Harbinger1 | 2 | | 60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022 |
4469 | 2011-11-17 | 2027-02-27 | Harbinger1 | 13 | | The worlds first "truely" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. |
4470 | 2011-11-17 | 2029-07-29 | Harbinger1 | 7 | | the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. |
4471 | 2011-11-17 | 2023-07-29 | Harbinger1 | 13 | | With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. |
4472 | 2011-11-17 | 2027-10-15 | Harbinger1 | 1 | | Social Engineering will go into standard practice for The Prison Reform Act in late 2027. |
4473 | 2011-11-17 | 2012-11-11 | Harbinger1 | 9 | Right | President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. |
4483 | 2011-11-17 | 2024-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. |
4484 | 2011-11-17 | 2011-12-17 | shokwave | 6 | Wrong | Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community |
4485 | 2011-11-17 | 2011-12-17 | shokwave | 7 | Right | Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes |
4489 | 2011-11-17 | 2011-12-10 | ahmedwael | 8 | Wrong | Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal |
4490 | 2011-11-17 | 2011-11-17 | dr_freezy | 2 | Wrong | the sun will rise in the west and sets in the east |
4494 | 2011-11-17 | 2011-12-09 | general | 8 | Wrong | The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 |
4495 | 2011-11-17 | 2012-01-10 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Withdrawn | PredictionBook will be modified sometime before January 10, 2012 months to have some form of moderation. |
4496 | 2011-11-17 | 2025-01-01 | Seyi | 6 | | Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 |
4509 | 2011-11-18 | 2012-04-01 | Isaac | 3 | Right | I will complete at least one of the new Stanford online classes (I signed up for 6 of them) |
4512 | 2011-11-18 | 2012-01-01 | roshni | 2 | Wrong | I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 |
4513 | 2011-11-18 | 2011-12-30 | roshni | 4 | Right | I will get the job I'm interviewing for on Tuesday |
4525 | 2011-11-18 | 2011-11-20 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | At least 1 of the 3 books I ordered from Flipkart today will have been delivered by Sunday. |
4533 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4534 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4535 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 3 | Wrong | Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4536 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 3 | Wrong | Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4537 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4538 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4539 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Draco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4540 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. |
4541 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 5 | Right | Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. |
4542 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 15 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. |
4543 | 2011-11-19 | 2013-01-01 | Anubhav | 16 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. |
4544 | 2011-11-19 | 2014-01-01 | Anubhav | 19 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. |
4545 | 2011-11-19 | 2015-01-01 | Anubhav | 28 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. |
4551 | 2011-11-19 | 2016-11-19 | New | 3 | Wrong | Will Iran's regime will end? |
4570 | 2011-11-20 | 2011-11-28 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | I will start studying for the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam this week. |
4571 | 2011-11-20 | 2013-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | There will be a new (canon) _Haruhi_ anime by 2013. |
4572 | 2011-11-20 | 2014-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | There will be a new (canon) _Haruhi_ anime by 2014. |
4573 | 2011-11-20 | 2015-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | There will be a new (canon) _Haruhi_ anime by 2015. |
4574 | 2011-11-20 | 2150-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 13 | | "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog |
4577 | 2011-11-20 | 2015-01-01 | sinyos | 1 | Wrong | there will be a cure for AIDS by the year 2015 |
4589 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | Correctly answer midterm question 2 |
4590 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 3 |
4591 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 4 |
4592 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 5 |
4593 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 6 |
4594 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 7 |
4595 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 8 |
4596 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 9 |
4597 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 10 |
4598 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 11 |
4599 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 12 |
4600 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 13 |
4601 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-22 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Correctly answer midterm question 14 |
4602 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-11-21 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | Correctly answer midterm question 15 |
4617 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-12-05 | ultramarinefoil | 1 | Withdrawn | I will get a HD in at least two units |
4618 | 2011-11-21 | 2011-12-05 | ultramarinefoil | 1 | Wrong | I will get a HD for at least two of my units, and only one credit. |
4624 | 2011-11-22 | 2011-12-06 | yurifury | 2 | Right | Dark Souls patch will be out within two weeks. |
4628 | 2011-11-22 | 2011-11-22 | ultramarinefoil | 1 | Wrong | I will miss the 3:13pm bus |
4635 | 2011-11-22 | 2015-01-01 | Nic_Smith | 3 | Wrong | Open source MineCraft client by 2015 |
4636 | 2011-11-22 | 2017-01-01 | Nic_Smith | 6 | Wrong | Open source MineCraft client by 2017 |
4637 | 2011-11-22 | 2021-01-01 | Nic_Smith | 5 | | Open source MineCraft client by 2021 |
4638 | 2011-11-22 | 2023-01-01 | Nic_Smith | 9 | | No open source Minecraft client before 2023 |
4644 | 2011-11-23 | 2013-11-23 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | "Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future" --Chris Jolley |
4645 | 2011-11-23 | 2012-01-30 | roshni | 8 | Wrong | My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. |
4646 | 2011-11-23 | 2012-01-04 | roshni | 5 | Wrong | I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. |
4647 | 2011-11-23 | 2013-11-23 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Amazon will dominate Android appstores --Marco Arment |
4653 | 2011-11-23 | 2012-11-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Mangaka Mutsumi Akazaki (formerly of _Fractale_) will be publishing a regular series within a year. |
4654 | 2011-11-23 | 2021-01-01 | ceterisparibus | 21 | | A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. |
4655 | 2011-11-23 | 2011-12-23 | gwern | 1 | Right | The man in the screen cap is Yoshiyuki Tomino |
4656 | 2011-11-24 | 2016-11-24 | Porejide | 3 | | By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting |
4657 | 2011-11-24 | 2011-11-24 | shokwave | 1 | Right | Finish this tender this afternoon |
4658 | 2011-11-24 | 2011-12-20 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | Succeed on the TOVP tender |
4659 | 2011-11-24 | 2035-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Withdrawn | By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. |
4664 | 2011-11-24 | 2013-01-01 | M3 | 7 | Wrong | In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. |
4665 | 2011-11-24 | 2035-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 9 | | By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. |
4669 | 2011-11-25 | 2011-11-25 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | Dark Souls: Capra Demon dead by tonight |
4670 | 2011-11-25 | 2011-11-26 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | On time: at the door by 8am tomorrow |
4671 | 2011-11-25 | 2011-11-26 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | We will get through the first unit of this week's AI class lectures |
4672 | 2011-11-25 | 2011-11-26 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | We will get through the second unit of this week's AI class lectures tomorrow |
4673 | 2011-11-25 | 2012-05-25 | shokwave | 2 | Wrong | My chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence) |
4677 | 2011-11-26 | 2014-12-27 | YourFriend | 6 | Wrong | Ozzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day. |
4681 | 2011-11-27 | 2011-11-28 | yurifury | 1 | Right | I will finish ai-class unit 13 today. |
4684 | 2011-11-28 | 2011-11-29 | Codyz | 3 | Wrong | I will finish Seneca 84 tonight |
4687 | 2011-11-28 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | The USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015. |
4688 | 2011-11-28 | 2040-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Right | Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. |
4697 | 2011-11-30 | 2011-12-05 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will have done the infomation collection exercise for Electronics by the end of this week. |
4698 | 2011-11-30 | 2011-12-05 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will start studying for the actuarial entrance exam this week. |
4699 | 2011-11-30 | 2011-12-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will add cards to an Anki deck today. |
4700 | 2011-11-30 | 2011-12-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will add cards to more than one Anki deck today. |
4701 | 2011-11-30 | 2011-12-03 | gwern | 2 | Right | brazil84 will approve my comment. |
4702 | 2011-11-30 | 2011-12-05 | gwern | 1 | Right | Seth Kurtenbach will approve my comment. |
4703 | 2011-11-30 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 3 | Wrong | I will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year. |
4704 | 2011-11-30 | 2011-12-14 | Nic_Smith | 4 | Wrong | Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term "real world" to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. |
4705 | 2011-11-30 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. |
4706 | 2011-11-30 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong |
4707 | 2011-11-30 | 2012-02-15 | papermachine | 4 | Wrong | Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup. |
4711 | 2011-12-01 | 2014-01-01 | Isaac | 10 | Wrong | The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 |
4714 | 2011-12-02 | 2011-12-02 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | None of the students with extra time will use all their extra time. |
4727 | 2011-12-02 | 2070-01-01 | pleeppleep | 8 | | The singularity will occur by the year 2070 |
4736 | 2011-12-04 | 2045-12-04 | gwern | 9 | | Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. |
4737 | 2011-12-04 | 2070-01-01 | bobpage | 12 | | Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 |
4740 | 2011-12-04 | 2011-12-05 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will add cards to more than one anki deck today. |
4741 | 2011-12-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Right | lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. |
4742 | 2011-12-04 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020. |
4743 | 2011-12-04 | 2041-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040. |
4744 | 2011-12-04 | 2061-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. |
4745 | 2011-12-04 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. |
4746 | 2011-12-04 | 2041-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. |
4747 | 2011-12-04 | 2061-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. |
4748 | 2011-12-04 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. |
4749 | 2011-12-04 | 2041-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. |
4750 | 2011-12-04 | 2061-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. |
4754 | 2011-12-05 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Withdrawn | It turns out that Kapil Sibal didn't actually suggest prescreening UGC using human moderators. |
4755 | 2011-12-05 | 2021-08-07 | Grognor | 8 | | James Randi will live to be 93 years old. |
4761 | 2011-12-06 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 6 | Wrong | I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. |
4772 | 2011-12-07 | 2011-12-07 | Anubhav | 1 | Withdrawn | The virus warning turns out to be false. |
4773 | 2011-12-07 | 2011-12-07 | RobertLumley | 1 | Wrong | One of the comfortable seats in the library Starbucks will be available when I walk in. |
4774 | 2011-12-08 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. |
4775 | 2011-12-08 | 2011-12-08 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | WinDirStat will crash or stop responding for 30 minutes on my ~7M+ file scan |
4776 | 2011-12-08 | 2011-12-09 | RobertLumley | 1 | Right | Tomorrow morning, I will wake up within five minutes of the time I set my alarm for in order to study for my final. |
4781 | 2011-12-08 | 2012-06-02 | RobertLumley | 10 | Right | I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. |
4788 | 2011-12-10 | 2012-09-03 | bobpage | 13 | Wrong | "[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate" |
4789 | 2011-12-10 | 2012-12-31 | CarlShulman | 2 | Wrong | Giving What We Can will have at least 320 pledged members by December 31, 2012. |
4790 | 2011-12-10 | 2011-12-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Day 1: pill was modafinil. |
4797 | 2011-12-11 | 2011-12-12 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Tonight, I will find a raw txt -- I mean, a completely legal copy of the book that has been recommended to me. |
4798 | 2011-12-11 | 2011-12-19 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will update my Ubuntu install this week. |
4801 | 2011-12-11 | 2011-12-11 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Aakash will complete MW3 by midnight. |
4802 | 2011-12-11 | 2011-12-12 | RobertLumley | 1 | Right | I will leave for my parents house by 3:00 today. |
4803 | 2011-12-11 | 2012-05-20 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | Harvard's yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below. |
4804 | 2011-12-11 | 2011-12-18 | Isaac | 1 | Wrong | I will get over an 80 on my USH test I took last week |
4805 | 2011-12-12 | 2011-12-12 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Day 2: pill was modafinil |
4806 | 2011-12-12 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 6 | Wrong | PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. |
4838 | 2011-12-12 | 2012-12-12 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as villain. |
4839 | 2011-12-12 | 2012-12-12 | muflax | 1 | Right | Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as non-villain. |
4840 | 2011-12-12 | 2011-12-21 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: Louis kills Travis. |
4841 | 2011-12-12 | 2011-12-21 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: a regular dies. |
4842 | 2011-12-12 | 2011-12-21 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 6: Deb and Dex kiss. |
4845 | 2011-12-12 | 2011-12-13 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. |
4846 | 2011-12-12 | 2012-03-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1043 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012? |
4847 | 2011-12-12 | 2012-03-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? |
4848 | 2011-12-12 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? |
4849 | 2011-12-12 | 2012-08-05 | faws | 9 | Right | Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. |
4853 | 2011-12-13 | 2014-01-02 | saturn | 5 | Wrong | A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 |
4854 | 2011-12-13 | 2011-12-14 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will make an Anki deck for M1 and add at least 20 cards to it today. |
4855 | 2011-12-13 | 2011-12-15 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. |
4856 | 2011-12-13 | 2011-12-15 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. |
4857 | 2011-12-13 | 2011-12-13 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Day 3: pill was modafinil. |
4877 | 2011-12-14 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Wrong | If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. |
4878 | 2011-12-14 | 2011-12-15 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Tomorrow is results day. |
4879 | 2011-12-14 | 2011-12-15 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. |
4880 | 2011-12-14 | 2011-12-14 | gwern | 1 | Right | Day 4: pill was modafinil. |
4881 | 2011-12-14 | 2012-09-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | GJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012? |
4882 | 2011-12-14 | 2012-06-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | GJP: #1046 Will Australia formally transfer Uranium to India by 1 June 2012? |
4883 | 2011-12-14 | 2012-06-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1049 Will Asif Ali Zardari resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of President of Pakistan before 1 June 2012? |
4884 | 2011-12-14 | 2012-03-30 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1048 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012? |
4885 | 2011-12-14 | 2012-04-29 | leejhancox | 1 | Wrong | Coventry City FC will avoid relegation from the Championship League. |
4886 | 2011-12-15 | 2011-12-16 | gwern | 4 | Right | I will enjoy _Sherlock Holmes_ tonight. |
4887 | 2011-12-16 | 2011-12-17 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will study actuarial science for at least two hours today. |
4888 | 2011-12-16 | 2011-12-17 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will study Electronics for at least an hour today. |
4889 | 2011-12-16 | 2011-12-17 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will have LWT up and running today. |
4890 | 2011-12-16 | 2011-12-17 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will have share up and running today. |
4895 | 2011-12-17 | 2012-12-17 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. |
4902 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-19 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 7: Deb and Dex kiss. |
4903 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-19 | muflax | 2 | Wrong | Dexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6. |
4904 | 2011-12-19 | 2013-12-19 | muflax | 3 | Wrong | Dexter dies in the final episode. |
4905 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-19 | muflax | 1 | Right | Dexter season 7: a regular dies. |
4906 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-19 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 7: I will call one major twist in the final episode of the season halfway through. |
4907 | 2011-12-19 | 2013-12-19 | muflax | 2 | Wrong | Dexter: There will be wincest. |
4908 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-19 | muflax | 1 | Right | Dexter season 7: real identity of Bay Harbor Butcher is publicly announced. |
4909 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-06-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will deadlift my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. |
4910 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-06-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will squat my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. |
4911 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-06-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will bench press my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. |
4912 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-06-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before June 2012. |
4913 | 2011-12-19 | 2011-12-19 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Day 5: pill was modafinil. |
4914 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-19 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 7: Quinn and Louis will work together. |
4915 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-19 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Dexter season 7: Quinn investigates Dexter. |
4916 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | GJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU? |
4917 | 2011-12-19 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | GJP: #1052 Will Aung San Suu Kyi be sworn in or seated as a member of Parliament in Myanmar (Burma) before 1 January 2013? |
4918 | 2011-12-19 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? |
4919 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-06-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1050 Will the next Palestinian general election commence by 1 June 2012? |
4920 | 2011-12-19 | 2012-06-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | GJP: #1054 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012? |
4928 | 2011-12-20 | 2016-12-20 | Laurent Bossavit | 1 | Withdrawn | Feature phones are going to vanish out of the developed world and over the course of five years they'll vanish out of the developing world. -- Marc Andreessen in http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57345138-93/marc-andreessen-predictions-for-2012-and-beyond/ |
4929 | 2011-12-20 | 2016-12-20 | Laurent Bossavit | 3 | Wrong | In 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM "5 in 5" http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) - for concreteness take "significant" to be $1Bn |
4930 | 2011-12-20 | 2016-12-20 | Laurent Bossavit | 11 | Wrong | Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM "5 in 5" http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) |
4931 | 2011-12-20 | 2016-12-20 | Laurent Bossavit | 4 | Wrong | Within 5 years, "mind reading" (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's "5 in 5" http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- |
4932 | 2011-12-20 | 2016-12-20 | Laurent Bossavit | 5 | Wrong | Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM "5 in 5" http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) |
4933 | 2011-12-20 | 2012-01-03 | RobertLumley | 5 | Wrong | Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. |
4934 | 2011-12-20 | 2012-12-20 | muflax | 2 | Wrong | Reddit: "Dawn of The Final Day" meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20. |
4935 | 2011-12-20 | 2012-12-20 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Reddit: reminder that "Dawn of The Final Day" frontpage was predicted a year ago on frontpage on 2012/12/20. |
4936 | 2011-12-20 | 2012-08-31 | selylidne | 4 | Right | Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination. |
4939 | 2011-12-20 | 2012-08-31 | selylidne | 2 | Wrong | Newt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination. |
4940 | 2011-12-20 | 2012-08-31 | selylidne | 1 | Wrong | Rick Perry will win the 2012 GOP nomination. |
4941 | 2011-12-20 | 2012-08-31 | selylidne | 1 | Wrong | Michelle Bachmann will win the 2012 GOP nomination. |
4942 | 2011-12-21 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | Microsoft will buy RIM --Cringely |
4943 | 2011-12-21 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. --Cringely |
4944 | 2011-12-21 | 2013-01-01 | faws | 12 | Right | Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 |
4945 | 2011-12-21 | 2012-10-16 | Grognor | 10 | Wrong | SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. |
4946 | 2011-12-21 | 2012-12-19 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb |
4947 | 2011-12-21 | 2011-12-22 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete Project Euler #5 within the next 7 hours. |
4950 | 2011-12-21 | 2011-12-26 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will have completed my Electronics report by the end of this week. |
4951 | 2011-12-21 | 2011-12-22 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will complete at least two SQL practicals tomorrow. |
4952 | 2011-12-21 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 11 | Wrong | SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. |
4953 | 2011-12-21 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 10 | Wrong | An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. |
4954 | 2011-12-21 | 2011-12-21 | gwern | 1 | Right | Day 7: pill was modafinil. |
4957 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-22 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Akshay's file produces no errors on the first run. |
4958 | 2011-12-22 | 2012-06-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Rashi will score over 80% on her boards. |
4959 | 2011-12-22 | 2012-06-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Rashi will score over 90% on her boards. |
4960 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-22 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will do part of the paperwork for the 19th CS practical today. |
4961 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-23 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will add at least 40 cards to my Maths/Stats/Electronics decks today. |
4962 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-23 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will try out the binary file program today. |
4970 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-28 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Will clear first round of Code Junkie. |
4971 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Will clear second round of Code Junkie. |
4972 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Will clear third round of Code Junkie. |
4973 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-26 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will have changed Chrome's language to Japanese by the end of this week. |
4974 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-23 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | I will edit my keyboard layout and build it today. |
4977 | 2011-12-22 | 2012-02-20 | Lemmih | 1 | Wrong | I will get a B in my LinAlg class. |
4978 | 2011-12-22 | 2012-04-01 | Lemmih | 1 | Wrong | I will have a profitable bot before April 1st, 2012. |
4979 | 2011-12-22 | 2011-12-31 | leejhancox | 3 | Wrong | The Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts |
4980 | 2011-12-23 | 2011-12-24 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Will try the binary filehandling program out today. |
4981 | 2011-12-24 | 2011-12-24 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | The correlation between S1 marks and attendence will be > 0.6 |
4982 | 2011-12-24 | 2021-12-24 | gwern | 10 | | In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). |
4989 | 2011-12-25 | 2011-12-25 | gwern | 1 | Right | Day 8: pill was modafinil. |
4990 | 2011-12-25 | 2013-02-15 | papermachine | 2 | Withdrawn | Kevin's diet (see comments for link) will work for Eliezer Yudkowsky (formally, lose at least 10 pounds in a year). If EY never adopts the diet, this prediction is wrong. |
4991 | 2011-12-26 | 2014-01-16 | papermachine | 5 | Wrong | Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. |
4992 | 2011-12-26 | 2014-01-16 | papermachine | 4 | Right | If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. |
4993 | 2011-12-26 | 2011-12-26 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Retain the 1:45 slot for Mindspark. Or get a slot after 12:30. |
4994 | 2011-12-26 | 2011-12-26 | Lemmih | 1 | Wrong | It will take Jonathan longer than 30 minutes to bike home. |
4998 | 2011-12-27 | 2012-01-27 | gwern | 1 | Right | I will receive <10 pull requests for the GitHub repo for gwern.net. |
5003 | 2011-12-27 | 2023-01-01 | bobpage | 9 | | The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 |
5004 | 2011-12-27 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | 'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' --dia80 |
5007 | 2011-12-28 | 2011-12-28 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Person I'm chatting with is a girl. |
5008 | 2011-12-28 | 2011-12-28 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Person I'm chatting with is an engineer/engineering student from India. |
5009 | 2011-12-28 | 2011-12-28 | Anubhav | 1 | Withdrawn | Person I'm chatting with is a girl. |
5012 | 2011-12-28 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 |
5013 | 2011-12-28 | 2025-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 |
5014 | 2011-12-28 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2030 |
5015 | 2011-12-28 | 2012-07-19 | ZrCa | 3 | Wrong | reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB. |
5016 | 2011-12-28 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 16 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' --shminux |
5017 | 2011-12-28 | 2031-12-28 | gwern | 7 | | In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. |
5018 | 2011-12-28 | 2021-12-28 | gwern | 4 | | In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. |
5019 | 2011-12-28 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | Before 2013, the US embassy in Beijing will stop publicly reporting air pollution readings (at least one continuous month with no readings) |
5020 | 2011-12-29 | 2025-12-29 | gwern | 12 | | Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. |
5021 | 2011-12-29 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Correlation between C1 marks and S1 marks will be > 0.7 |
5022 | 2011-12-29 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Stranger will dc. |
5023 | 2011-12-29 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Stranger will dc. |
5024 | 2011-12-29 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Stanger will dc. |
5025 | 2011-12-29 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Stranger will dc. |
5026 | 2011-12-29 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Stranger is female. |
5027 | 2011-12-29 | 2011-12-29 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Stranger will dc. |
5038 | 2011-12-31 | 2011-12-31 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Stranger will claim to live in London. |
5039 | 2011-12-31 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | "one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins" --kiba |
5040 | 2011-12-31 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Bitcoin/USD prices: "best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks." --kiba |
5041 | 2011-12-31 | 2028-12-31 | muflax | 1 | | Q.I. abandons its "one letter a season" concept. |
5042 | 2011-12-31 | 2028-12-31 | muflax | 5 | | Q.I. makes it up to "Z". |
5043 | 2011-12-31 | 2020-01-01 | muflax | 7 | Right | HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). |
5044 | 2011-12-31 | 2013-01-01 | muflax | 1 | Wrong | Half-Life 3 released in 2012. |
5045 | 2011-12-31 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 |
5046 | 2011-12-31 | 2050-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 |
5048 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Correlation between C1 attendance and marks will be less than 0.7 |
5049 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | C1 marks are more strongly correlated with S1 attendance than C1 attendance. |
5050 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | S1 marks are more strongly correlated with C1 attendance than with S1 attendance. |
5051 | 2012-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2013 |
5052 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-12-31 | georgesdelatour | 6 | Wrong | Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 |
5053 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-11-07 | georgesdelatour | 6 | Right | Barack Obama will be re-elected President of the United States of America |
5054 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-02-01 | Mqrius | 1 | Right | The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. |
5055 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-02-01 | Mqrius | 7 | Right | The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. |
5056 | 2012-01-01 | 2012-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 1: pill was Vitamin D. |
5057 | 2012-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | NGE: 4.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Stay Here" |
5058 | 2012-01-01 | 2021-01-01 | gwern | 12 | | 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin |
5059 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Porejide | 5 | Wrong | On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top |
5060 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Porejide | 3 | Wrong | On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top |
5061 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Porejide | 2 | Right | The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top |
5062 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Porejide | 2 | Wrong | 12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top |
5063 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Porejide | 6 | Wrong | By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. |
5064 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Porejide | 5 | Wrong | At least three papers with the word "connectomics" in their title or abstract will be published in *Nature* in 2012. |
5065 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-03 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Will change Windows' display language to Japanese today. |
5066 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-11-07 | gwern | 6 | Right | Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson |
5067 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-11-07 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party |
5068 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-11-07 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected |
5069 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-05-30 | gwern | 10 | Right | "The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare" --jdgalt |
5070 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 19 | Wrong | "There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs..." --jdgalt |
5071 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Trying to install the Japanese language pack produces an error (again). |
5072 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Repairing .NET client profile will fix the error. |
5073 | 2012-01-02 | 2016-01-01 | ahartell | 5 | Right | _HP MoR_: Harry is Voldemort |
5074 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Wrong | If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a "shooting spree" and the shooter will mention the "political climate" as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. |
5075 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Wrong | The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. |
5076 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Fix 50528 fixed the problem. |
5077 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%. |
5078 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Manual install will work on my PC. |
5079 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Manual install will work on my laptop. |
5080 | 2012-01-02 | 2019-01-01 | Porejide | 5 | | There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. |
5081 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. |
5082 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013. |
5083 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Copying the ja-jp registry key from my laptop to my PC and deleting the en-us key will change my PC's display language to Japanese. |
5084 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Wrong | The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. |
5085 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-07 | Anubhav | 3 | Right | Will have completed the maths FAC for ACET by Saturday. |
5086 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | 最近 is pronounced さいきん |
5087 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | 完全 is pronounced かんぜん |
5088 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | 切り取り is pronounced きりとり |
5089 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | 送る is pronounced そうる |
5090 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-08 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by Sunday. |
5091 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | Anubhav | 5 | Wrong | LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) |
5092 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-02-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Withdrawn | Two Open Threads will be posted in the Discussion Section of Less Wrong in the month of January 2012 and the second thread will have at least double the number of posts contained in the first thread before February 2012. |
5093 | 2012-01-02 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Wrong | The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. |
5094 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-02-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 8 | Wrong | I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. |
5095 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-02-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. |
5096 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 2: pill was Vitamin D. |
5097 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. |
5098 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012 |
5099 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | P != NP will not be resolved by 2013 |
5100 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 19 | Right | General AI will not be built by 2013 |
5101 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. |
5102 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. |
5103 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | In 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. |
5104 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012 |
5105 | 2012-01-02 | 2014-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | I will read at least 15 novels of the Maria-sama ga Miteru series in the next 2 years. |
5106 | 2012-01-02 | 2012-01-04 | Anubhav | 3 | Right | Share will download one of the files I'm looking for tomorrow. |
5107 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity in 2013 |
5108 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012 |
5109 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 |
5110 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 31 | Right | No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 |
5111 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012 |
5112 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 22 | Right | _HP MoR_: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 |
5113 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area |
5114 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | I will not become a vegetarian in 2012 |
5115 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year |
5116 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. |
5117 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | At least one of my New Years predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me. |
5121 | 2012-01-02 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | AMZN market cap >= 0.25 * AAPL on 31 December 2012. |
5122 | 2012-01-03 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 13 | Right | _HP MoR_: The Peverell tombstone ("The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death") will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. |
5123 | 2012-01-03 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm" --Cringely |
5124 | 2012-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Right | HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. |
5125 | 2012-01-03 | 2013-01-16 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | I will "remember my name, or soon learn it" for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related |
5126 | 2012-01-03 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | Future Cities Development Inc. will found at least one settlement in a special development region in Honduras and it will have a population of equal to or greater than 500 before 2013. |
5127 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-12-31 | Emanuel Rylke | 1 | Wrong | I will consume a story (book, movie, comic...) in french primarly for enjoyment and not language learning. |
5128 | 2012-01-03 | 2013-01-30 | Emanuel Rylke | 3 | Wrong | 2012 i will enter a romantic relationship that will last longer than 30 days. |
5129 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-01-03 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 3: pill was Vitamin D |
5130 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-12-31 | Emanuel Rylke | 1 | Right | I will apply for a job as a software developer. |
5131 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-01-03 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | 'Sakura saku' is the first Love Hina OP. |
5132 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-01-03 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | 'Kimi ni aeta Yokatta' is from one of the Slayers series. |
5133 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-01-03 | Anubhav | 1 | Withdrawn | Adding the Mecab folder to the PATH variable will make 'mecab -O wakati input.txt -o output.txt' work. |
5134 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-01-03 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I have heard -Life- before. |
5135 | 2012-01-03 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods" (top 100) |
5136 | 2012-01-03 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods" (top 500) |
5137 | 2012-01-03 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Withdrawn | Bitcoin "Coverage in media will decrease" |
5138 | 2012-01-03 | 2012-12-16 | marchdown | 1 | Wrong | By the end of the year Namecoin would be closer to Bitcoin in value than to the early-2012 value of Namecoin. |
5147 | 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-04 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Kunikida (from Haruhi) is written country-tree-field. |
5148 | 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-04 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Taniguchi (from Haruhi) is written valley-mouth. |
5149 | 2012-01-04 | 2012-09-23 | ahartell | 2 | Wrong | I will finish reading GEB before I go to college. |
5162 | 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-04 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 4: pill was Vitamin D |
5163 | 2012-01-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Prediction #4: Motorola buys TiVO" --Cringely |
5164 | 2012-01-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Either Morotola or Cisco will buy Tivo. |
5169 | 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-07 | ahartell | 1 | Right | I will go to school tomorrow and friday. |
5170 | 2012-01-04 | 2012-01-05 | ahartell | 1 | Right | I will not open facebook between now and midnight. |
5171 | 2012-01-04 | 2012-07-01 | ahartell | 1 | Right | I will be able to solve a rubix cube in less than 1 minute and 30 seconds by July |
5180 | 2012-01-05 | 2012-01-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | The IFC Center will detect me sneaking into the second movie & kick me out. |
5181 | 2012-01-05 | 2012-01-05 | gwern | 1 | Right | The US Mint has resumed printing $2 bills since I checked in 2005 (thus explaining the new-looking $2 I received as change at IFC). |
5182 | 2012-01-05 | 2012-01-19 | Laurent Bossavit | 3 | Wrong | "Leprechauns" (http://leanpub.com/leprechauns) will top the $720 in sales suggested by pre-publication declarations of interest (60 interested readers at an average of $12), within two weeks. |
5183 | 2012-01-05 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "No IPO for Facebook" --Cringely |
5184 | 2012-01-05 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | "Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo" --Mr Windows |
5185 | 2012-01-05 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "A new Microsoft CEO" [Ballmer steps down] --Cringely |
5186 | 2012-01-05 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Ballmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt --Cringely |
5187 | 2012-01-06 | 2012-02-01 | gwern | 16 | Wrong | Bitcoin >$9000 by February. |
5191 | 2012-01-06 | 2012-01-06 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will have stopped wasting time on Omegle by 2:30. (It's 1:25 now.) |
5192 | 2012-01-06 | 2012-01-06 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | 'Ame Nochi Kumochi Nochi Hare' was the theme song of one of the 'Aa Megamisama' animes/OVAs. |
5193 | 2012-01-06 | 2012-01-09 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Someone from the IAI will ring me up on the day of the President's speech. The call will be regarding my non-attendance. |
5194 | 2012-01-06 | 2012-01-30 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | I will regret not attending the IAI President's speech. |
5195 | 2012-01-06 | 2012-01-06 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 6: pill was Vitamin D |
5209 | 2012-01-07 | 2012-01-07 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Stats assignment for today will include χ^2 or student's-t distributions. |
5212 | 2012-01-07 | 2012-01-07 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Reading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me greatly |
5213 | 2012-01-07 | 2014-01-16 | siscoking | 6 | Right | The future of the Euro: "Euro survives". |
5214 | 2012-01-07 | 2012-01-15 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by next Sunday. |
5215 | 2012-01-07 | 2014-01-16 | siscoking | 1 | Wrong | The future of the Euro: Pheripheral countries leave, Germany and France lead move to fiscal union. Smaller Euro survives. |
5216 | 2012-01-07 | 2012-01-08 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Will try out Trello today. |
5217 | 2012-01-07 | 2014-01-16 | siscoking | 3 | Wrong | The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. |
5218 | 2012-01-07 | 2014-01-16 | siscoking | 3 | Wrong | The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. |
5219 | 2012-01-07 | 2013-01-01 | modulus | 2 | Right | There will be a general strike in Spain on 2012 |
5220 | 2012-01-07 | 2012-01-08 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Won't have broadband tomorrow morning. |
5221 | 2012-01-07 | 2046-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | | Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature. |
5222 | 2012-01-07 | 2012-01-07 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 7: pill was Vitamin D |
5223 | 2012-01-07 | 2012-12-30 | kiba | 15 | Wrong | The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. |
5224 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-02-08 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Part 2 of _Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies_ to be ready within a month |
5225 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-03-08 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Part 2 of _Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies_ to be ready within 2 months |
5230 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-12-31 | Grognor | 2 | Right | http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0fyO6ypVYI This super-awesome YouTube video will be taken down by the end of the year. |
5231 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-08-06 | Grognor | 3 | Wrong | I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow. |
5232 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-01-08 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one bizarre hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) |
5233 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-01-08 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one amusing hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) |
5234 | 2012-01-08 | 2013-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing. |
5235 | 2012-01-08 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 2 | Wrong | Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing. |
5236 | 2012-01-08 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 9 | Wrong | Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. |
5237 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-01-09 | Anubhav | 4 | Wrong | Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. |
5238 | 2012-01-08 | 2012-01-08 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 8: pill was Vitamin D |
5239 | 2012-01-08 | 2015-01-08 | kiba | 1 | | Within 3 years, at least 3 manga English distributors will go out of business or stop publishing. |
5242 | 2012-01-08 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa" --Brian Breslin |
5243 | 2012-01-08 | 2017-01-08 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Square Inc. will be bought or merged within 5 years. |
5244 | 2012-01-08 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | "3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon" --Brian Breslin |
5245 | 2012-01-08 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Salesforce will buy Hootsuite and/or Klout. |
5246 | 2012-01-08 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | "9. Facebook hits 1 billion users" --Brian Breslin |
5255 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-09-30 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | I will have basic stock trading model done, with initial trades by this date. |
5256 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-12-31 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. |
5257 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-03-31 | waveman | 3 | Wrong | I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. |
5258 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-03-31 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | I will have achieved intermediate level weightlifting levels for all lifts as defined in my spreadsheet. |
5259 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-02-28 | waveman | 1 | Right | I will have achieved a heart rate of 165 for 15 minutes straight which is my aerobic fitness goal. |
5260 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-12-31 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | During 2012 I will be actively involved in some activist activity. Eg MC. |
5261 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-07-01 | waveman | 1 | Withdrawn | I will have finished the equivalent of 3rd year physics. |
5262 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-11-30 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | I will have completed two masters level AI courses at ANU or equivalent |
5265 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-02-28 | waveman | 1 | Right | I will have listened to Dorothy's memories tape and mailed her a letter with my comments and thoughts. |
5268 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-01-09 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I have heard 'raging waves' before. |
5269 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-12-31 | _W_ | 5 | Wrong | No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 |
5270 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-01-09 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 9: pill was Vitamin D |
5271 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-02-01 | kiba | 1 | Right | I will continue to work on the game "The City" by next month. |
5272 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-02-01 | kiba | 2 | Wrong | I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. |
5273 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? |
5274 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? |
5275 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1058 By 1 April 2012, will Egypt officially announce its withdrawal from its 1979 peace treaty with Israel? |
5276 | 2012-01-09 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1061 Will Syria’s Arab League membership be reinstated* by 31 December 2012? |
5277 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | GJP: #1060 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012? |
5278 | 2012-01-09 | 2012-04-03 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | GJP: #1062 Will the daily Europe Brent Crude FOB spot price per barrel be greater than or equal to $150 before 3 April 2012? |
5279 | 2012-01-09 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? |
5280 | 2012-01-09 | 2013-02-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1057 Will the Russian military deploy* additional Iskander missiles before 1 February 2013? |
5281 | 2012-01-09 | 2017-02-01 | kiba | 4 | Wrong | Sometime in the next 5 years, a television network will make a build show that involves hackerspaces. |
5288 | 2012-01-10 | 2012-01-17 | Akshay Rawat | 2 | Wrong | 3rd Test Australia v India at Perth: India Wins |
5289 | 2012-01-10 | 2013-01-01 | modulus | 10 | Right | Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year |
5290 | 2012-01-10 | 2012-01-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 10: pill was Vitamin D |
5291 | 2012-01-10 | 2012-03-20 | smijer | 4 | Wrong | Mitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday. |
5295 | 2012-01-10 | 2012-12-21 | kish | 14 | Wrong | USD worth over 3 EUR |
5296 | 2012-01-10 | 2013-01-01 | kish | 2 | Wrong | Solar flare to harm life on Earth |
5310 | 2012-01-11 | 2012-12-31 | smijer | 10 | Right | Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. |
5311 | 2012-01-11 | 2012-01-11 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 11: pill was Vitamin D |
5314 | 2012-01-12 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 13 | Wrong | Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a "blackout" protesting pending legislation, before 2013 |
5315 | 2012-01-12 | 2014-05-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will buy a car before graduating college. |
5316 | 2012-01-12 | 2012-01-12 | OptiMind | 2 | Right | Det tager mig <30 minutter at køre på cykel fra Lundsgade til Scandiagade |
5317 | 2012-01-12 | 2012-05-01 | OptiMind | 3 | Wrong | Jeg kommer til Korea inden sommer. |
5318 | 2012-01-12 | 2012-01-12 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 12: pill was Vitamin D |
5319 | 2012-01-12 | 2012-02-01 | Lemmih | 1 | Right | I will eat no more than 1000kcal/day (± 10%) in January. |
5320 | 2012-01-12 | 2012-01-26 | ahartell | 3 | Right | I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. |
5321 | 2012-01-12 | 2012-01-26 | kim13579 | 2 | Right | the dog will have a good life |
5322 | 2012-01-13 | 2012-01-17 | Anubhav | 2 | Right | Will submit my database case study before the deadline. |
5323 | 2012-01-13 | 2012-05-01 | Anubhav | 4 | Wrong | I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. |
5324 | 2012-01-13 | 2012-04-01 | Anubhav | 4 | Wrong | I will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. |
5325 | 2012-01-13 | 2012-01-13 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 13: pill was Vitamin D |
5326 | 2012-01-13 | 2014-03-31 | Anubhav | 11 | Wrong | I will drop out of college. |
5331 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Climate change denial completely discredited - "about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today" --Charles Stross |
5332 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 |
5333 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | "oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it." --Charles Stross |
5334 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 --Charles Stross |
5335 | 2012-01-14 | 2063-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 --Charles Stross |
5336 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. --Charles Stross |
5337 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids" in 2032 --Charles Stross |
5338 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 --Charles Stross |
5339 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "the trend towards urbanization continues" 2012-2032 --Charles Stross |
5340 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 --Charles Stross |
5341 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 --Charles Stross |
5342 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | "Moore's Law will have played out by 2032" --Charles Stross |
5343 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 --Charles Stross |
5344 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | "gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office" by 2032 --Charles Stross |
5345 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | "Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist" --Charles Stross |
5346 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper" by 2032 --Charles Stross |
5347 | 2012-01-14 | 2032-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | "HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy" by 2032 --Charles Stross |
5348 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | By 2092, "20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct." --Charles Stross |
5349 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | "There will be 5-10 billion people." --Charles Stross |
5350 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising." |
5351 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | "The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?" --C |
5353 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 --Charles Stross |
5354 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross |
5355 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized --Charles Stross |
5356 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross |
5357 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross |
5358 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross |
5359 | 2012-01-14 | 2092-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | "computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some" by 2092 --Charles Stross |
5360 | 2012-01-14 | 2012-01-19 | siscoking | 2 | Withdrawn | This prediction will be deleted within 5 days. |
5361 | 2012-01-14 | 2012-01-14 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 14: pill was Vitamin D |
5362 | 2012-01-14 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops by 2013 |
5367 | 2012-01-14 | 2013-01-14 | Grognor | 4 | Right | GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate one year from today. |
5368 | 2012-01-14 | 2014-01-14 | Grognor | 5 | Right | GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. |
5369 | 2012-01-15 | 2012-04-01 | siscoking | 5 | Wrong | Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 |
5370 | 2012-01-15 | 2012-04-01 | siscoking | 3 | Wrong | Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15 |
5371 | 2012-01-15 | 2012-04-01 | siscoking | 3 | Wrong | Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20 |
5372 | 2012-01-15 | 2012-04-01 | siscoking | 3 | Wrong | Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25 |
5373 | 2012-01-15 | 2012-04-01 | siscoking | 3 | Wrong | Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30 |
5374 | 2012-01-15 | 2012-04-01 | siscoking | 4 | Wrong | Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 |
5375 | 2012-01-15 | 2012-01-15 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 15: pill was Vitamin D |
5380 | 2012-01-16 | 2012-01-19 | HonoreDB | 2 | Wrong | In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. |
5381 | 2012-01-16 | 2012-01-19 | HonoreDB | 1 | Right | In the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days. |
5384 | 2012-01-16 | 2012-01-16 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 16: pill was Vitamin D |
5392 | 2012-01-17 | 2012-06-10 | spqr0a1 | 1 | Withdrawn | Chris Shinski will continue teaching at the Adirondack School until at least the end of academic year 2012-2013. |
5395 | 2012-01-17 | 2012-02-04 | ahartell | 1 | Right | I got an 80 or higher on my calc quiz. |
5396 | 2012-01-17 | 2012-02-14 | b.crouzier | 2 | Withdrawn | I will go to New York city on feb 14 and build an awsome construction |
5397 | 2012-01-17 | 2012-02-14 | b.crouzier | 1 | Right | I will go to New York city on feb 14 and build an awsome construction |
5398 | 2012-01-17 | 2013-01-01 | b.crouzier | 1 | Wrong | b.crouzier estimated 60% and said “I will have achieved 2m views and 1000 subs on my youtube benjamincrouzier channel at the end of this year. |
5399 | 2012-01-18 | 2012-03-15 | Anubhav | 2 | Right | I will be allowed to take the internal exams. |
5400 | 2012-01-18 | 2012-01-18 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 18: pill was Vitamin D |
5401 | 2012-01-18 | 2999-02-19 | RobertLumley | 4 | Withdrawn | Both Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would. |
5402 | 2012-01-19 | 2012-01-19 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 19: pill was Vitamin D |
5406 | 2012-01-19 | 2012-01-20 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd. |
5407 | 2012-01-19 | 2012-01-20 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, Misha rejoins your party. |
5411 | 2012-01-20 | 2012-01-20 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 20: pill was Vitamin D |
5415 | 2012-01-21 | 2012-04-01 | siscoking | 4 | Wrong | Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. |
5416 | 2012-01-21 | 2012-01-21 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 21: pill was Vitamin D |
5417 | 2012-01-21 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy |
5418 | 2012-01-21 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 11 | Right | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. |
5419 | 2012-01-21 | 2015-01-23 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. |
5420 | 2012-01-22 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la _Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg_) |
5426 | 2012-01-22 | 2012-01-22 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 22: pill was Vitamin D |
5447 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-02-22 | meisnewbie | 2 | Right | There will be one sitting of Phantasmagoria of Flower View in the next month where I will go positive against Drakeryn. (Sitting = More than 5 matches where Merlin is not picked) |
5448 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-02-22 | meisnewbie | 1 | Right | Mercenaries 4 will not have started in one month |
5457 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-01-24 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Will have college tomorrow. |
5458 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-01-23 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 23: pill was Vitamin D |
5461 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1069 Before 1 April 2012, will South Korea officially* announce a policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in 2012? |
5462 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1068 Will the UN Security Council pass a new measure/resolution directly concerning Syria between 23 January 2012 and 31 March 2012? |
5463 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1067 Will Traian Basescu resign, lose referendum vote, or vacate the office of President of Romania before 1 April 2012? |
5464 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1066 Will Yemen's next presidential election commence before 1 April 2012? |
5465 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1064 Will Yousaf Raza Gillani resign, lose confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2012? |
5466 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1063 Will the Taliban begin official* in-person negotiations with either the US or Afghan government by 1 April 2012? |
5467 | 2012-01-23 | 2012-03-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1070 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012? |
5468 | 2012-01-24 | 2013-01-01 | Anubhav | 3 | Wrong | Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. |
5469 | 2012-01-24 | 2012-02-15 | Laurent Bossavit | 8 | Right | France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. |
5470 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 7 | | "We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission" --Dev 2; BBC |
5471 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "We will be able to control the weather" --mariebee_; BBC |
5472 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | 'Antarctica will be "open for business"' --Dev 2; BBC |
5473 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories" --Alister Brown, BBC |
5474 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 --Kennys_Heroes, BBC |
5475 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 33 | | "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC |
5476 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | "80% of the world will have gay marriage" --Paul, BBC |
5477 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 8 | | "Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy" --Ahdok; BBC |
5478 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012 |
5479 | 2012-01-24 | 2112-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | "Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government" --krozier93; BBC |
5480 | 2012-01-24 | 2012-11-04 | gwern | 4 | Right | No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) --knb |
5481 | 2012-01-24 | 2012-12-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%) --knb |
5482 | 2012-01-24 | 2013-02-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) --knb |
5483 | 2012-01-24 | 2012-03-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | "I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize" --Kevin |
5484 | 2012-01-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | _HP MoR_: "A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted" --Bugmaster |
5485 | 2012-01-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. --Bugmaster |
5486 | 2012-01-24 | 2012-01-30 | Anubhav | 2 | Right | End Acta petition to the White House will have 25k signatures by Monday. |
5487 | 2012-01-24 | 2012-02-07 | Anubhav | 3 | Right | End Acta petition to the White house will have 25k signatures in 2 weeks. |
5488 | 2012-01-24 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Right | I will obtain a CompTIA A+ certification before 2013. |
5489 | 2012-01-24 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | I will obtain a CompTIA Network+ certification before 2013. |
5493 | 2012-01-24 | 2012-03-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | "I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)" --Kevin |
5496 | 2012-01-25 | 2012-01-25 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | The Japanese Language pack install will be successful. |
5497 | 2012-01-25 | 2012-07-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. |
5498 | 2012-01-25 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete every tutorial and drill in Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition before 2013. |
5499 | 2012-01-25 | 2012-02-09 | Leo | 11 | Right | I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. |
5504 | 2012-01-25 | 2013-01-01 | Anubhav | 10 | Wrong | PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. |
5509 | 2012-01-26 | 2012-02-01 | Anubhav | 5 | Wrong | "Submit ACTA to Senate" petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. |
5510 | 2012-01-26 | 2012-02-21 | Anubhav | 6 | Withdrawn | "Submit ACTA to the Senate" petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. |
5511 | 2012-01-26 | 2012-02-20 | Anubhav | 6 | Wrong | "Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years" petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. |
5512 | 2012-01-26 | 2012-01-29 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. |
5513 | 2012-01-26 | 2012-01-26 | meisnewbie | 1 | Right | Kefit will die before stage 8 in Asakura P |
5516 | 2012-01-26 | 2012-01-26 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 26: pill was Vitamin D |
5525 | 2012-01-27 | 2012-01-28 | Anubhav | 3 | Right | Eliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead. |
5526 | 2012-01-27 | 2012-01-29 | Anubhav | 3 | Right | Eliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead. |
5527 | 2012-01-27 | 2017-01-27 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Jaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to _Gf_) will be formally retracted within 5 years |
5528 | 2012-01-27 | 2012-01-27 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 27: pill was Vitamin D |
5529 | 2012-01-27 | 2012-07-27 | gwern | 4 | Right | I will unsubscribe from _Erfworld_. |
5543 | 2012-01-28 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 11 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. |
5544 | 2012-01-28 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Right | Human whole-genome sequencing <=$1000 by 2020. |
5545 | 2012-01-28 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. |
5546 | 2012-01-28 | 2012-02-28 | gwern | 1 | Right | Salminen 2012's "reasoning abilities"/"reasoning skills" measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test. |
5547 | 2012-01-28 | 2012-04-28 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months --shminux |
5548 | 2012-01-28 | 2012-04-28 | gwern | 2 | Right | Conditional on being offered a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI, I will accept. |
5549 | 2012-01-29 | 2012-01-29 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | My nausea will end within 30 minutes of taking 520mg of activated charcoal. |
5550 | 2012-01-29 | 2016-01-01 | Anubhav | 7 | Right | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. |
5551 | 2012-01-29 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Wrong | I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. |
5552 | 2012-01-29 | 2017-01-29 | siscoking | 13 | Wrong | A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. |
5553 | 2012-01-29 | 2012-01-29 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 28: pill was Vitamin D |
5557 | 2012-01-29 | 2012-11-24 | Grognor | 1 | Wrong | Super Mario Bros. Z episode 9 will be released on or before November 24, 2012. |
5558 | 2012-01-30 | 2012-02-04 | Jach | 1 | Right | Homework due this week will be done on time |
5561 | 2012-01-30 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | | The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. |
5579 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1073 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 April 2012 that an agreement has been reached to lend Hungary an additional 15+ Billion Euros? |
5580 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1072 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy before 1 April 2012? |
5581 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1071 Will Iran and the U.S. commence official nuclear program talks* before 1 April 2012? |
5582 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-03-06 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1075 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election? |
5583 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-02-15 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? |
5584 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-02-06 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? |
5585 | 2012-01-31 | 2025-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | | By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. |
5586 | 2012-01-31 | 2050-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Withdrawn | By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology. |
5592 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-01-31 | Lemmih | 1 | Wrong | Pill was modafinil. |
5593 | 2012-01-31 | 2013-01-01 | Mqrius | 1 | Right | My friend's house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013. |
5603 | 2012-02-01 | 2012-02-08 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | I will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel. |
5604 | 2012-02-01 | 2112-02-01 | Anubhav | 9 | | Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) |
5605 | 2012-02-01 | 2050-01-01 | Anubhav | 4 | Withdrawn | 2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in sovereign nation-states. |
5608 | 2012-02-01 | 2050-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 11 | | By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. |
5609 | 2012-02-01 | 2012-02-01 | Lemmih | 1 | Wrong | Pill was modafinil. |
5610 | 2012-02-01 | 2016-01-01 | Grognor | 19 | Right | _HP MoR_: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. |
5611 | 2012-02-02 | 2050-01-01 | Anubhav | 4 | | 2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. |
5612 | 2012-02-02 | 2012-02-06 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | "Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives" petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week. |
5613 | 2012-02-02 | 2012-02-27 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | "Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives" petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. |
5614 | 2012-02-02 | 2012-02-03 | Lemmih | 2 | Right | Pill was modafinil. |
5626 | 2012-02-02 | 2012-02-03 | wallowinmaya | 1 | Wrong | I will sleep more than 5 hours tonight, although I took Modafinil. |
5631 | 2012-02-02 | 2013-01-01 | wallowinmaya | 2 | Wrong | My grandmother will die this year. |
5632 | 2012-02-02 | 2013-01-01 | wallowinmaya | 6 | Wrong | I'll get a girlfriend this year. |
5637 | 2012-02-03 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 9 | Wrong | By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace "3D printing" in the media. |
5641 | 2012-02-03 | 2012-02-10 | Emanuel Rylke | 2 | Right | I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. |
5647 | 2012-02-03 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will get a boyfriend this year. |
5648 | 2012-02-03 | 2012-02-03 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 33: pill was Vitamin D |
5657 | 2012-02-03 | 2012-02-07 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) |
5671 | 2012-02-04 | 2012-02-04 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 34: pill was Vitamin D |
5672 | 2012-02-04 | 2012-02-05 | Lemmih | 2 | Right | Pill was modafinil. |
5673 | 2012-02-04 | 2012-05-16 | smijer | 1 | Wrong | Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012. |
5674 | 2012-02-04 | 2012-02-04 | OptiMind | 2 | Right | Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng |
5675 | 2012-02-04 | 2012-02-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | papermachine will not donate to the Internet Archive |
5676 | 2012-02-05 | 2017-04-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 |
5677 | 2012-02-05 | 2012-07-01 | bobpage | 7 | Wrong | Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program |
5686 | 2012-02-06 | 2012-03-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will get a remote researcher position at the Singularity Institute before the end of the month. |
5687 | 2012-02-06 | 2013-02-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year. |
5688 | 2012-02-06 | 2020-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | | I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. |
5699 | 2012-02-06 | 2012-02-11 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 1 week |
5700 | 2012-02-06 | 2012-02-18 | gwern | 1 | Right | My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 2 weeks |
5701 | 2012-02-06 | 2012-02-25 | gwern | 1 | Right | My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 3 weeks |
5702 | 2012-02-06 | 2012-03-03 | gwern | 1 | Right | My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 4 weeks |
5703 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-03-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete The Pragmatic Programmer before March, 2012. |
5707 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-02-07 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 36: pill was Vitamin D |
5708 | 2012-02-07 | 2013-01-01 | vinayak | 15 | Right | There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 |
5715 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-12-31 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1081 Will the Nigerian government and Boko Haram commence official talks before 31 December 2012? |
5716 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-04-10 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? |
5717 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-04-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1082 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012? |
5718 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-04-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1078 Will a Japanese whaling ship enter Australia's territorial waters between 7 February 2012 and 10 April 2012? |
5719 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-02-07 | wallowinmaya | 1 | Wrong | Pill was Bupropion |
5720 | 2012-02-07 | 2012-02-14 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1079 Who will win the 2012 Venezuela presidential primary for a unified opposition candidate to Hugo Chavez? Henrique Capriles Radonski |
5730 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-02-08 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | androidx86 generic_x86-20120208.iso will boot to a working GUI in VMWare |
5731 | 2012-02-08 | 2013-02-08 | Leo | 1 | Right | Friend who initially ignored my coming out will reliably refer to me with male pronouns within the year. |
5732 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-02-14 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/13/2012. |
5733 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-02-18 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/17/2012. |
5734 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-04-06 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/05/2012. |
5735 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-04-11 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/10/2012. |
5736 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-02-29 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | I will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase. |
5737 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-02-08 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 37: pill was Vitamin D |
5738 | 2012-02-08 | 2012-02-08 | wallowinmaya | 1 | Right | Pill was Bupropion |
5744 | 2012-02-09 | 2012-02-09 | Jach | 1 | Right | Recompile of qutecom depending on boost-1.42 instead of boost-1.46 will by itself fix segfault error |
5745 | 2012-02-09 | 2012-02-09 | gwern | 1 | Right | Night 38: pill was Vitamin D |
5746 | 2012-02-09 | 2012-02-09 | wallowinmaya | 1 | Right | Pill was Bupropion |
5752 | 2012-02-09 | 2012-05-21 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period, and the difference will be significant at p<0.05 |
5753 | 2012-02-10 | 2012-06-20 | _W_ | 1 | Wrong | Price of bitcoin to reach $10 before June 20. on MtGox |
5754 | 2012-02-10 | 2012-07-10 | _W_ | 3 | Right | Price of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT |
5758 | 2012-02-10 | 2012-02-10 | Primeval | 2 | Right | I will make it to the top of camelback mountain tomorrow morning. |
5759 | 2012-02-10 | 2012-10-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) at least until Curiosity lands on Mars. |
5760 | 2012-02-10 | 2012-02-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 39: pill was Vitamin D |
5761 | 2012-02-10 | 2012-02-10 | wallowinmaya | 1 | Wrong | Pill was Bupropion |
5765 | 2012-02-11 | 2012-02-14 | meisnewbie | 1 | Wrong | Drakeryn gets shot by Chris or gets lynched next Touhou mafia day (numbers) |
5766 | 2012-02-11 | 2012-02-12 | Lemmih | 3 | Right | Pill was modafinil. |
5767 | 2012-02-11 | 2014-01-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | I will not fail a single actuarial exam before 2014. |
5768 | 2012-02-11 | 2012-06-15 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will score over 60% aggregate on my finals. |
5769 | 2012-02-11 | 2012-06-15 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | I will score over 80% aggregate on my finals. |
5770 | 2012-02-11 | 2012-02-11 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 40: pill was Vitamin D |
5771 | 2012-02-11 | 2012-02-11 | wallowinmaya | 1 | Wrong | Pill was Bupropion |
5772 | 2012-02-11 | 2012-04-01 | modulus | 3 | Right | Iran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons |
5775 | 2012-02-12 | 2012-02-12 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Night 41: pill was Vitamin D |
5790 | 2012-02-16 | 2012-12-31 | Emanuel Rylke | 1 | Wrong | The smallest federated wiki will move beyond the stage of proof of concept this year. |
5791 | 2012-02-16 | 2012-02-17 | Anubhav | 1 | Right | My comment on Shiny Ogre's blog will be approved in 24 hours. |
5797 | 2012-02-18 | 2012-03-03 | meisnewbie | 1 | Wrong | The Drexler group escaped from the lab because they believed the self destruct system would work and prevent a grey goo scenario. (Baldr Sky) |
5809 | 2012-02-20 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 4 | | NGE: A version of the song "Komm, süsser Tod" will be used in _Rebuild_ |
5816 | 2012-02-20 | 2012-02-20 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Wrong | Temperature outside below 30 |
5817 | 2012-02-20 | 2012-02-20 | Nic_Smith | 1 | Right | Temperature outside above 40 |
5818 | 2012-02-20 | 2012-03-20 | meisnewbie | 1 | Wrong | The forum mafia Bayes calculator will be completed within a month. |
5819 | 2012-02-20 | 2012-02-21 | Nic_Smith | 2 | Right | Rain at apt. tonight or tomorrow morning. |
5826 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GJP: #1096 Will a civil war break out in Syria between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? |
5827 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1092 Will Myanmar release at least 100 more political prisoners between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? |
5828 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1091 Will Standard and Poor's downgrade Japan's Foreign Long Term credit rating at any point between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? |
5829 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1085 Between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012, will the UN Security Council announce any reduction of its peacekeeping force in Haiti? |
5830 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-04-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | GJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012? |
5831 | 2012-02-21 | 2013-01-04 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1095 Will there be a significant* outbreak of H5N1 in China in 2012? |
5832 | 2012-02-21 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1094 Will Zimbabwe commence a presidential election before 1 January 2013? |
5833 | 2012-02-21 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | GJP: #1093 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013? |
5834 | 2012-02-21 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? |
5835 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-10-20 | gwern | 5 | Right | GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez |
5836 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-06-20 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | GJP: #1087 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election? |
5837 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-04-14 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1090 Before 13 April 2012, will the Turkish government officially announce that the Turkish ambassador to France has been recalled? |
5838 | 2012-02-21 | 2012-04-11 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1086 Will Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Maldives before 10 April 2012? |
5860 | 2012-02-25 | 2025-01-01 | Anubhav | 6 | | 2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. |
5861 | 2012-02-25 | 2020-01-01 | Anubhav | 9 | Wrong | 2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. |
5862 | 2012-02-25 | 2020-01-01 | Anubhav | 10 | Wrong | 2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. |
5892 | 2012-02-27 | 2012-10-26 | Ben Doherty | 3 | Wrong | There will be 100 or more comments on our new site within 2 months of it launching |
5897 | 2012-02-27 | 2012-03-05 | faws | 3 | Wrong | Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. |
5898 | 2012-02-27 | 2012-02-28 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | I will have enough student's to run my studio |
5899 | 2012-02-27 | 2012-02-28 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | I'll make it out of studio by 4:45 |
5912 | 2012-02-28 | 2014-02-23 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | Conditional on competing in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics, Yuna Kim will win a gold medal |
5916 | 2012-02-29 | 2013-12-20 | Anubhav | 13 | Right | First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of _Deathly Hallows_ (44 million according to Wikipedia.) |
5920 | 2012-03-01 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will continue posting on my blog until the end of this year. |
5921 | 2012-03-01 | 2012-03-01 | doctor_regtools | 5 | Right | IT / Scarlet Tea & Cakes 1/3/2012 |
5922 | 2012-03-01 | 2017-03-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. |
5930 | 2012-03-02 | 2012-03-09 | chemotaxis101 | 3 | Right | [Russia] Vladimir Putin will receive at least 60% of the vote (official election results). |
5931 | 2012-03-02 | 2012-03-03 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | Flight TT543 will be within 10 minutes of on time arrival into Melbourne |
5932 | 2012-03-02 | 2013-03-01 | RandomThinker | 8 | Wrong | Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). |
5933 | 2012-03-02 | 2012-06-16 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | Miami Heat will win NBA championship in 2012 |
5938 | 2012-03-04 | 2012-12-16 | PaulAlesius | 3 | Wrong | The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012. |
5941 | 2012-03-05 | 2014-06-16 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Jeremy Lin's NBA career will last over 2 years (defining he's done if he doesn't play more than 250 mins a season -- around 3 minutes a game) |
5942 | 2012-03-05 | 2012-05-20 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Philadelphia will get past the first round of the 2012 NBA playoffs |
5943 | 2012-03-05 | 2013-03-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Withdrawn | Google TV will be more successful than Apple TV in 12 months (hard to measure, will have to be judged qualitatively) |
5944 | 2012-03-05 | 2012-05-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | CDS on Greek Debt will be triggered by May 1 (about 6 weeks) |
5945 | 2012-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Anubhav | 9 | Wrong | An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. |
5946 | 2012-03-05 | 2030-01-01 | Anubhav | 10 | | An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. |
5949 | 2012-03-05 | 2012-12-31 | roshni | 1 | Right | I'll be able to stick to my 2012 New Year resolution of 'no mammal meat for a year' till Dec 31, 2012. |
5950 | 2012-03-05 | 2012-11-01 | papermachine | 3 | Right | Assassin's Creed 3 will be available in the United States by October 31, 2012 |
5951 | 2012-03-05 | 2012-11-01 | papermachine | 4 | Right | The character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin's Creed 3. |
5952 | 2012-03-05 | 2012-11-01 | papermachine | 1 | Wrong | Ares/Mars will make an on-screen appearance in Assassin's Creed 3, as a member of the First Civilization. |
5961 | 2012-03-06 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1098 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between 6 March 2012 and 31 December 2012? |
5962 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-10-02 | gwern | 2 | Right | GJP: #1102 Will Ireland ratify the European Fiscal Compact in a referendum vote before 1 October 2012? |
5965 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-04-02 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | GJP: #1103 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees? |
5966 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-04-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1101 Will Laurent Lamothe be ratified as Haiti’s Prime Minister before 1 April 2012? |
5967 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-04-02 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GJP: #1099 Before 1 April 2012, will Al-Saadi Gaddafi be extradited to Libya? |
5968 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-04-02 | gwern | 2 | Right | GJP: #1097 Will Tunisia officially announce an extension of its current state of emergency before 1 April 2012? |
5969 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-03-09 | wajdiatwah | 7 | Wrong | The week end class trip won't happen due to rain |
5970 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-04-01 | Christopher | 1 | Right | I will read through Alicorn's Living Luminously sequence by the end of March. Any skimming not made up for will result as a failure. |
5971 | 2012-03-06 | 2013-03-05 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | Chinese stock market index will be higher 1 year from now (measured by SSE, which is 2410 right now, on Mar 5, 2013) |
5972 | 2012-03-06 | 2014-03-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Despite Kindle and other competition, iPads won't be significantly cheaper over the next 2 years. Measured by MSRP of newest model in base configuration not falling below $399 (it's $499 right now) |
5973 | 2012-03-06 | 2013-11-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | iPad market share in Tablets will stay above 50% through November 1 2013 (2 years after Kindle release) |
5975 | 2012-03-06 | 2013-03-01 | RandomThinker | 6 | Wrong | Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) |
5976 | 2012-03-06 | 2012-07-01 | Anubhav | 1 | Wrong | Kerala High Court hears a PIL against India's IT rules. |
5977 | 2012-03-06 | 2020-01-01 | Anubhav | 10 | | At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. |
5978 | 2012-03-06 | 2020-01-01 | Anubhav | 6 | Wrong | By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). |
5979 | 2012-03-06 | 2013-01-01 | roshni | 1 | Right | Hamza Kashgari will live to see 2013. |
5988 | 2012-03-07 | 2012-08-16 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Peyton Manning will sign with the Redskins |
5989 | 2012-03-07 | 2012-11-16 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Yu Darvish will have a good year (>150 innings, <4 ERA) |
5990 | 2012-03-07 | 2013-01-16 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | Scientists will confirm discovery of Higgs Boson by end of 2012 |
5996 | 2012-03-07 | 2012-03-19 | williamycai | 1 | Wrong | I will complete the advanced revit modelling assessment 1 week before the due date. Due 24/3/2012 but I'll finish before the 18th. |
5997 | 2012-03-07 | 2012-03-08 | williamycai | 1 | Right | Tutor will post up choice results and I will get my choice of selected reading; delirious new york, for the subjection "the city" |
5998 | 2012-03-07 | 2022-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | | Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) |
6006 | 2012-03-08 | 2012-03-09 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Withdrawn | I’ll complete 1 or more tasks from my rtm list tomorrow |
6024 | 2012-03-09 | 2012-05-08 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today. |
6049 | 2012-03-12 | 2012-04-12 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | >=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month |
6093 | 2012-03-16 | 2017-03-16 | papermachine | 2 | Wrong | XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two. |
6094 | 2012-03-16 | 2013-03-16 | papermachine | 2 | Wrong | XiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year. |
6106 | 2012-03-19 | 2012-03-20 | bobpage | 2 | Right | Apple will announce a dividend on their March 19, 2012 conference call |
6107 | 2012-03-19 | 2012-03-22 | williamycai | 1 | Right | The hunger games will not meet wife's expectations and will disappoint her |
6108 | 2012-03-19 | 2012-03-19 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | There will be 20 or more people at tonight's compDesGrp session |
6109 | 2012-03-19 | 2012-03-22 | Anubhav | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80. |
6110 | 2012-03-19 | 2012-04-09 | Anubhav | 2 | Withdrawn | _HP MoR_: Conditional on prediction 6109, Hermione Granger will be transformed into a House-Elf before chapter 85. |
6136 | 2012-03-22 | 2012-04-02 | Jach | 1 | Right | WrestleMania XXVIII: The Undertaker defeats Triple H |
6137 | 2012-03-22 | 2012-04-02 | Jach | 1 | Right | WrestleMania XXVIII: CM Punk defeats Chris Jericho |
6138 | 2012-03-22 | 2012-04-02 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | WrestleMania XXVIII: Randy Orton defeats Kane |
6139 | 2012-03-22 | 2012-04-02 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | WrestleMania XXVIII: Cody Rhodes defeats Big Show |
6147 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 21 | Right | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser |
6148 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members |
6149 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom |
6150 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 12 | Right | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban |
6151 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape |
6152 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel) |
6153 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be accept Hermione's imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone |
6154 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors |
6155 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat |
6156 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime |
6157 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | Anubhav | 11 | Wrong | HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. |
6158 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way |
6159 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable |
6160 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way |
6161 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak |
6164 | 2012-03-23 | 2012-03-28 | beo_shaffer | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. |
6171 | 2012-03-24 | 2012-03-27 | williamycai | 1 | Right | I will be able to meet with my friend on tuesday afternoon 3pm, because design studio will run short. |
6181 | 2012-03-25 | 2012-06-20 | HamletHenna | 5 | Wrong | Hazem Salah Abu Ismail will be the next Egyptian president. |
6192 | 2012-03-26 | 2012-04-12 | meisnewbie | 2 | Wrong | Moogy will finish both '&' and TDA02 before Mahoyo releases |
6193 | 2012-03-26 | 2012-04-12 | meisnewbie | 2 | Wrong | Moogy will finish Mahoyo in one sitting on the day of release |
6201 | 2012-03-26 | 2012-12-31 | Leo | 1 | Wrong | Amadou Toumani Toure known dead on Dec 31 |
6202 | 2012-03-26 | 2013-12-31 | Leo | 1 | Wrong | Amadou Toumani Toure regains power in Mali |
6203 | 2012-03-26 | 2013-12-31 | Leo | 2 | Wrong | Malian junta remains in power |
6204 | 2012-03-26 | 2012-12-31 | Leo | 2 | Wrong | Elections judged democratic by foreign observers held in Mali |
6207 | 2012-03-26 | 2012-12-31 | Leo | 4 | Wrong | Foreign military intervention in Mali |
6210 | 2012-03-27 | 2012-04-09 | happyday | 4 | Wrong | i won't get present for easter at all |
6220 | 2012-03-28 | 2013-09-28 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | Accountability metrics will become a significant topic |
6221 | 2012-03-28 | 2012-03-28 | happyday | 1 | Right | tonight's dinner will be end before 9pm |
6222 | 2012-03-28 | 2013-11-16 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | Michael Jordan will sell or become passive owner of the Bobcats by start of 2013-14 NBA season |
6223 | 2012-03-28 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | Requesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013 |
6224 | 2012-03-28 | 2012-12-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | Facebook will settle with Yahoo on its patent suit by end of 2012 |
6225 | 2012-03-28 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Tebow will start at least 1 NFL game next year (2012-13 NFL season) |
6231 | 2012-03-28 | 2012-05-15 | williamycai | 2 | Right | My brother will become interested in Diablo 3 before the release date under the influence of his friends. |
6250 | 2012-03-29 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will obtain the CompTIA Security+ certification before 2013. |
6251 | 2012-03-29 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will obtain the CompTIA Linux+ Powered by LPI certification before 2013. |
6252 | 2012-03-29 | 2012-03-31 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | My wife and I will complete the 2nd version of the business plan within the next 36 hours. |
6253 | 2012-03-30 | 2012-03-30 | happyday | 1 | Right | we will have sushi for dinner tonight |
6254 | 2012-03-30 | 2012-03-30 | happyday | 1 | Wrong | i will buy a lip stick during the weekend |
6255 | 2012-03-30 | 2012-04-20 | happyday | 4 | Wrong | we will going away (gold coast, carins)during easter holiday |
6266 | 2012-03-31 | 2014-06-16 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr) |
6272 | 2012-03-31 | 2020-06-01 | spqr0a1 | 1 | | Chris Shinski will like J-pop in 2020. |
6275 | 2012-03-31 | 2012-08-01 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will have achieved intermediate level on all my one remaining weightlifting lift as defined in my spreadsheet. ie Bench press 20 reps at 38kg. |
6276 | 2012-03-31 | 2012-08-01 | waveman | 3 | Wrong | I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. |
6277 | 2012-03-31 | 2012-07-31 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. Currently I am at about 15% Body Fat. |
6287 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-07-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Not including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Starcraft 2 (measured by 1st month sales - Starcraft 2 sold 3 million units). |
6288 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-07-01 | RandomThinker | 4 | Right | Including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Skyrim (1st month sales = 7 million) |
6289 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-06-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Obama's world bank candidate, Jim Kim, will win the position |
6290 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-06-10 | mat33 | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. |
6291 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-06-10 | mat33 | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's "purchase"). |
6292 | 2012-04-01 | 2013-07-04 | mat33 | 9 | Wrong | HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. |
6293 | 2012-04-01 | 2015-07-01 | mat33 | 10 | Wrong | HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. |
6294 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-05-11 | JeffreyTse | 4 | Right | Jeremy Lin will not return to the NBA this season. |
6295 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-04-02 | JeffreyTse | 3 | Wrong | I will win my Yahoo Fantasy Basketball round 7-2. |
6296 | 2012-04-01 | 2012-04-03 | JeffreyTse | 4 | Right | There will be a maximum of 3 people who have further contributed to my stats on google docs by Tuesday. |
6303 | 2012-04-02 | 2012-04-02 | happyday | 1 | Right | i will cook and wash the dishes for us tonight! |
6306 | 2012-04-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will finish The Complete Idiot's Guide to Learning Latin before the end of the year. |
6318 | 2012-04-03 | 2012-04-03 | JeffreyTse | 1 | Withdrawn | There will be a maximum of 2 people who show up from my studio before midday. |
6319 | 2012-04-03 | 2012-04-13 | JeffreyTse | 2 | Right | Nobody will spend more than 4 hours in the studio space 3 days in a row between now and the first submission. |
6323 | 2012-04-03 | 2012-12-04 | williamycai | 2 | Wrong | I will spend more than 24 hrs in total in the studios between now and assignment due date. |
6324 | 2012-04-03 | 2012-07-04 | happyday | 1 | Right | We will go to the royal easter show on friday this week, and see the cat and dog show as i wished. |
6325 | 2012-04-03 | 2012-04-07 | happyday | 1 | Right | friday will be 'Sunny' as the weather report has suggested |
6333 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-08 | happyday | 2 | Wrong | I'm going to book sky diving and attened it during the easter holiday. |
6334 | 2012-04-04 | 2014-04-03 | quicklystarfish | 1 | Wrong | My friend J.S. will consider Notch's game 0x10c to have been one of the best games of all time within two years. |
6335 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-30 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Santorum will win the Pennsylvania primary |
6338 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-05 | Sarokrae | 1 | Wrong | It will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm. |
6339 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-06-25 | Sarokrae | 3 | Wrong | I will be get a first this year |
6340 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-06-25 | Sarokrae | 2 | Right | I will get a 2:1 this year |
6341 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-09-01 | Sarokrae | 1 | Right | I will visit China this summer |
6342 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-29 | Sarokrae | 1 | Wrong | I will get a principal recall for Ruddigore |
6343 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-29 | Sarokrae | 1 | Wrong | I will get no recall at all for Ruddigore |
6344 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-29 | Sarokrae | 1 | Right | I will get a chorus recall for Ruddigore |
6345 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-05 | Sarokrae | 1 | Right | I will gain at least one more Pinterest follower by this time tomorrow |
6346 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-06-25 | Sarokrae | 1 | Wrong | I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on continued fractions |
6347 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-06-25 | Sarokrae | 2 | Right | I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on hypothesis testing |
6348 | 2012-04-04 | 2012-04-05 | Sarokrae | 2 | Right | I will gain at least one Pinterest follower who is a "real person" (has pinned things, pins don't contain spam links) by this time tomorrow |
6349 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 14 | Right | _HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts |
6350 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts |
6351 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts |
6352 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts |
6353 | 2012-04-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Right | _HP MoR_: >= 6 chapters of 2+ pages length published in 2012 |
6357 | 2012-04-04 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort |
6358 | 2012-04-04 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black |
6359 | 2012-04-04 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin |
6360 | 2012-04-04 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak |
6363 | 2012-04-04 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | _HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what is the important task McGonagall was called away from |
6364 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | _HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel |
6365 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | | _HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes |
6366 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves |
6367 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) |
6368 | 2012-04-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 13 | Right | _HP MoR_: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 |
6369 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Right | _HP MoR_: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes |
6370 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest |
6371 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis |
6372 | 2012-04-05 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Sybil Trelawney will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy when she comes within earshot of Harry |
6373 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort |
6374 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 12 | Right | _HP MoR_: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point |
6375 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Right | _HP MoR_: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character |
6376 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 |
6377 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 13 | Right | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 |
6378 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary |
6379 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary |
6380 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 14 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux |
6381 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel |
6382 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter |
6383 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human |
6384 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection |
6385 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | _HP MoR_: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. _Death Note_) |
6386 | 2012-04-05 | 2012-05-15 | williamycai | 3 | Right | I will get 'pass' for the city assignment 01. |
6403 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. |
6404 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Lucius Malfoy *was*, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater |
6405 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry |
6406 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry |
6407 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete |
6408 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore |
6409 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel |
6410 | 2012-04-05 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Right | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley |
6411 | 2012-04-05 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 12 | Right | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter |
6412 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name |
6413 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published |
6414 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents |
6415 | 2012-04-05 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article |
6428 | 2012-04-07 | 2025-01-01 | Turtleread | 3 | | Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country. |
6431 | 2012-04-07 | 2012-04-07 | gwern | 1 | Right | Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 3 & 4: placebo then vitamin D |
6432 | 2012-04-07 | 2012-04-09 | gwern | 1 | Right | Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 5 & 6: placebo then vitamin D |
6433 | 2012-04-07 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | _HP MoR_: Harry will stay at Hogwarts during Easter and his parents will visit him |
6434 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Right | _HP MoR_: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body |
6435 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it |
6436 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. |
6437 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Right | _HP MoR_: Harry is a horcrux |
6438 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | _HP MoR_: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) |
6439 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) |
6440 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 15 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects |
6441 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all |
6442 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will bite a teacher |
6443 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first |
6444 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first and is Quirrel |
6445 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | _HP MoR_: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point |
6446 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn't age (eg. a basilisk) |
6447 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix |
6448 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human |
6449 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor |
6450 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort |
6451 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Right | _HP MoR_: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness |
6452 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone |
6453 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | | _HP MoR_: the original Quirrel killed his parents |
6454 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Right | _HP MoR_: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense |
6455 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle) |
6456 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel |
6457 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Right | _HP MoR_: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la _Philosopher's Stone_) |
6458 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else |
6459 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel is Harry from the future |
6460 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective |
6461 | 2012-04-07 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die |
6467 | 2012-04-08 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone |
6468 | 2012-04-08 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone |
6469 | 2012-04-08 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 16 | Right | _HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock |
6470 | 2012-04-08 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter |
6471 | 2012-04-08 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever |
6472 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry |
6473 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | _HP MoR_: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this |
6474 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Voldemort is Quirrel's wand or is contained within it |
6475 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Right | _HP MoR_: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 |
6476 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat has Obliviated Blaise Zabini's mother |
6477 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Severus Snape |
6478 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore |
6479 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Harry (future or present) |
6480 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Leroy Lockhart |
6481 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Sybil Trelawney |
6482 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost) |
6483 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 18 | Right | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel |
6484 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy is dead |
6485 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort |
6486 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself |
6487 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) |
6488 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones |
6489 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy by accident |
6490 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux |
6491 | 2012-04-08 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives |
6492 | 2012-04-08 | 2051-01-01 | Grognor | 10 | | By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. |
6501 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux |
6502 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 8 | Right | _HP MoR_: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban |
6503 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 12 | Right | _HP MoR_: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew |
6504 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts |
6505 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 10 | Right | _HP MoR_: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic |
6506 | 2012-04-09 | 2013-04-09 | quicklystarfish | 7 | Wrong | Apple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices. |
6507 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Withdrawn | _HP MoR_: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited |
6508 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Withdrawn | _HP MoR_: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited |
6509 | 2012-04-09 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 |
6518 | 2012-04-10 | 2012-04-10 | happyday | 2 | Right | My husband won't sleep before 3am today because he can't finish his vedio clip for design. |
6519 | 2012-04-10 | 2012-04-10 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 26 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. |
6520 | 2012-04-10 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 6 | Wrong | I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 |
6521 | 2012-04-10 | 2016-12-31 | RandomThinker | 9 | Right | We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) |
6525 | 2012-04-11 | 2012-06-11 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Right | One or more people from outside the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term. |
6526 | 2012-04-11 | 2012-06-11 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | One or more people from the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term |
6534 | 2012-04-11 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. 'Tom Riddle') |
6535 | 2012-04-11 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | _HP MoR_: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is the spirit of Voldemort or Riddle |
6550 | 2012-04-12 | 2012-04-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 5 hours. |
6551 | 2012-04-12 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | I will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013. |
6552 | 2012-04-12 | 2012-04-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition within the next 5 hours. |
6553 | 2012-04-12 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the appearance of a marked Riddle or Voldemort on the map in places without people |
6554 | 2012-04-13 | 2012-04-13 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | My students will take me up on the offer of a case of beer for today's reviews. |
6555 | 2012-04-13 | 2012-04-13 | Ben Doherty | 2 | Right | 9 or more students will present in today's reviews (my studio) |
6556 | 2012-04-13 | 2017-09-05 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: _MoR_ will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 |
6573 | 2012-04-14 | 2012-04-14 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will finish my physics Anki deck within the next 5 hours. |
6574 | 2012-04-14 | 2012-06-30 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) |
6575 | 2012-04-14 | 2013-01-01 | RandomThinker | 4 | Right | iphone 5 won't have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S |
6576 | 2012-04-14 | 2012-06-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | My "Master Deck" for Anki will exceed 2,000 flash cards before June, 2012. |
6581 | 2012-04-15 | 2012-04-15 | ShadyPharmacist | 2 | Wrong | gwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus. |
6582 | 2012-04-15 | 2012-06-18 | ShadyPharmacist | 1 | Wrong | I will come to respect those people who endeavor to know systems of thought, fail, and yet still pretend comprehension/mastery when presenting the topic to others. |
6583 | 2012-04-15 | 2012-04-16 | ShadyPharmacist | 1 | Right | Of the 25 questions listed as unanswered within my specialties tonight on drugs.com that I answer, 15 of them will within 2 hours have a second answer which restates out of context my own, 5 that are just links to webmd.com or a similar site, 1 will be re |
6584 | 2012-04-15 | 2012-04-15 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 6 hours. |
6585 | 2012-04-15 | 2012-06-15 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | In my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored. |
6586 | 2012-04-15 | 2012-06-15 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | In my Wikipedia experiment, >=50% of the links will be restored. |
6591 | 2012-04-17 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | Determining if a knot is unknotted will be shown to be unconditionally in NP intersect co-NP by 2035. |
6596 | 2012-04-18 | 2016-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 2 | Wrong | HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because people will be uncertain whether Harry's points ought go to Slytherin or Ravenclaw. |
6602 | 2012-04-18 | 2014-01-01 | Ami | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) |
6608 | 2012-04-18 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 13 | Right | _HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) |
6615 | 2012-04-19 | 2012-09-19 | papermachine | 2 | Wrong | Homestuck: Eridan will be prototyped into a kernelsprite by himself. |
6616 | 2012-04-19 | 2012-09-19 | papermachine | 1 | Wrong | Homestuck: Nepeta and Equius are prototyped together into Dirk's kernelsprite |
6617 | 2012-04-19 | 2012-09-19 | papermachine | 1 | Wrong | Homestuck: Sollux and Feferi are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite |
6618 | 2012-04-19 | 2012-09-19 | papermachine | 1 | Wrong | Homestuck: Feferi and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite |
6619 | 2012-04-19 | 2012-09-19 | papermachine | 1 | Wrong | Homestuck: Sollux and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite |
6620 | 2012-04-19 | 2013-04-19 | papermachine | 1 | Withdrawn | Homestuck: Jane, Roxy, and Dirk attain God Tier before the beginning of Act 7. |
6621 | 2012-04-19 | 2022-10-10 | beo_shaffer | 9 | Wrong | Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index |
6622 | 2012-04-19 | 2012-04-25 | Cy Fleming | 1 | Wrong | The Pittsburgh Penguins will defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in 7 games in the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs |
6627 | 2012-04-19 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter |
6628 | 2012-04-19 | 2013-04-01 | lweismantel | 11 | Right | Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications |
6645 | 2012-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | gwern | 5 | Right | Replication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains. |
6665 | 2012-04-23 | 2012-04-23 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 7 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. |
6676 | 2012-04-24 | 2012-07-01 | DetroitDan | 1 | Wrong | Supreme Court will uphold individual mandate in "ObamaCare". |
6681 | 2012-04-24 | 2012-09-01 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | Jeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick |
6682 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GSoC 2012: "Patch Index Optimization for Darcs" |
6683 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2012: "Scoutess - a build manager for cabal projects" |
6684 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2012: "Implement Concurrent Hash-table / Hash map" |
6685 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2012: "Accelerating Haskell Application Development" |
6686 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GSoC 2012: "Sandboxed builds and isolated environments for Cabal" |
6687 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2012: "Enable GHC to use multiple instances of a package for compilation" |
6688 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2012: "multiuser browser-based interactive ghci, hpaste.org meets tryhaskell.org, for improved teaching of those new to Haskell." |
6689 | 2012-04-24 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | GSoC 2012: "Haskell-Type-Exts" |
6695 | 2012-04-25 | 2012-04-25 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 4 hours. |
6696 | 2012-04-25 | 2020-01-01 | RandomThinker | 10 | Right | Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 |
6697 | 2012-04-25 | 2012-12-31 | Emanuel Rylke | 2 | Right | I will still learn French by the end of the year. |
6713 | 2012-04-26 | 2013-01-31 | Selector | 8 | Wrong | 3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well. |
6720 | 2012-04-27 | 2012-04-28 | gwern | 1 | Right | Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 7 &8: placebo then vitamin D |
6743 | 2012-04-30 | 2012-04-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. |
6754 | 2012-05-01 | 2022-05-01 | gwern | 14 | | Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. |
6755 | 2012-05-01 | 2016-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft "got" social networking better than Google. |
6758 | 2012-05-02 | 2012-05-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
6759 | 2012-05-02 | 2012-06-06 | scott.arbeitman | 1 | Wrong | http://dkmvs.com/ will rank #1 on Google searches for "dick moves" in Australia |
6760 | 2012-05-02 | 2013-05-03 | Leo | 7 | Wrong | I will attempt suicide this year |
6769 | 2012-05-03 | 2012-07-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days. |
6770 | 2012-05-03 | 2012-08-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days. |
6771 | 2012-05-03 | 2012-08-31 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days. |
6772 | 2012-05-03 | 2012-09-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots within the next 150 days. |
6773 | 2012-05-03 | 2012-05-04 | papermachine | 1 | Right | I will finish a second draft of my article before my advisor meeting tomorrow. |
6774 | 2012-05-03 | 2014-05-03 | papermachine | 14 | Wrong | Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. |
6784 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-05-05 | pkfalu92 | 1 | Right | By 12am tonight, I will have written my HIS paper. |
6785 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-09-01 | pkfalu92 | 2 | Wrong | By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. |
6786 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-09-01 | pkfalu92 | 2 | Wrong | By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. |
6809 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Yahoo will change CEO's before end of 2012 |
6810 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Dewey LaBoeuf (law firm) will cease to exist by the end of 2012 |
6811 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-05-10 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Knicks will be swept in the first round of NBA playoffs |
6812 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-05-30 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | The margin of victory in the French election will be less than 5 points |
6813 | 2012-05-05 | 2020-12-31 | RandomThinker | 6 | Right | Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 |
6814 | 2012-05-05 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 |
6815 | 2012-05-05 | 2012-06-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Facebook IPO price will "pop" above $45 on first day |
6873 | 2012-05-09 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013. |
6877 | 2012-05-09 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | I will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. |
6880 | 2012-05-10 | 2012-12-31 | Grognor | 10 | Wrong | I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. |
6911 | 2012-05-10 | 2012-06-10 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Rutaesomn will offer to send me some free pills. |
6912 | 2012-05-10 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | There'll be no iPad Mini in 2012 |
6916 | 2012-05-11 | 2078-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | | I will still be alive in 2078. |
6934 | 2012-05-12 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | There'll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013 |
6943 | 2012-05-13 | 2072-12-31 | RandomThinker | 6 | | Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life |
6944 | 2012-05-13 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | Avengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b) |
6945 | 2012-05-13 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Avengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b) |
6946 | 2012-05-13 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Avengers will outgross Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (global box office > 1.32b) |
6947 | 2012-05-13 | 2012-07-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | The movie Battleship will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 107.2m per HSX) |
6981 | 2012-05-16 | 2012-05-16 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
6982 | 2012-05-16 | 2012-05-16 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my Anki physics deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 10 hours. |
7038 | 2012-05-21 | 2012-05-21 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7043 | 2012-05-22 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. |
7044 | 2012-05-22 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Google will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013 |
7047 | 2012-05-22 | 2012-05-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will achieve a passing score on practice test #2. |
7048 | 2012-05-22 | 2012-05-24 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will achieve a passing score on both practice tests. |
7050 | 2012-05-22 | 2012-07-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | My Anki flashcard deck will exceed 3,000 cards before July, 2012. |
7051 | 2012-05-22 | 2012-05-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | My MCT Oil will arrive on or before 05/30/2012. |
7052 | 2012-05-22 | 2012-06-08 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | My MCT Oil will arrive on or before my birthday. |
7062 | 2012-05-25 | 2032-01-01 | RandomThinker | 18 | | Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 |
7063 | 2012-05-25 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | > 500m will use Windows 8 by end of 2013 -- Steve Ballmer |
7064 | 2012-05-25 | 2012-07-15 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | The movie Prometheus will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 168m @ HSX) |
7070 | 2012-05-25 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Wrong | Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. |
7071 | 2012-05-25 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) |
7077 | 2012-05-26 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 8 | Right | Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 |
7130 | 2012-05-30 | 2022-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | | One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. |
7134 | 2012-05-30 | 2012-05-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 1 of the All-In-One LPIC-1/CompTIA Linux+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. |
7135 | 2012-05-30 | 2012-05-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7136 | 2012-05-30 | 2012-05-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 4 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7137 | 2012-05-30 | 2012-05-30 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will finish practice test #2 within the next 10 hours. |
7142 | 2012-05-31 | 2012-05-31 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 3 hours. |
7145 | 2012-06-01 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | John Edwards won't be retried |
7146 | 2012-06-01 | 2052-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | | Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life |
7157 | 2012-06-03 | 2012-06-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 5 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7158 | 2012-06-03 | 2012-06-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7159 | 2012-06-03 | 2012-06-15 | Nic_Smith | 4 | Right | The "top contributor" for Humble Bundle V will equal or exceed $10000. |
7163 | 2012-06-03 | 2012-06-07 | chemotaxis101 | 1 | Wrong | The Los Angeles Kings will win this year's Stanley Cup by a 4-0 victory over New Jersey Devils in the final series currently underway. |
7170 | 2012-06-03 | 2012-08-01 | Primeval | 2 | Wrong | I will apply to at least 1 graduate school by the end of the summer. |
7173 | 2012-06-04 | 2012-06-04 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. |
7189 | 2012-06-04 | 2012-10-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | iPad Mini will launch in September 2012 -- Brian White, Topeka Capital Markets |
7190 | 2012-06-04 | 2012-09-19 | shubham | 1 | Wrong | when i get a girlfriend |
7195 | 2012-06-05 | 2012-06-05 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7214 | 2012-06-06 | 2012-06-06 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will read chapter I and II of GEB within the next 10 hours. |
7225 | 2012-06-07 | 2012-06-14 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Gwern will get the matrix IQ test data from Fitzgerald 2012 --shminux |
7226 | 2012-06-07 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 8 | Wrong | Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 |
7230 | 2012-06-07 | 2012-07-01 | chimpsky | 2 | Right | Spain will win Euro 2012 |
7231 | 2012-06-07 | 2012-07-01 | chimpsky | 1 | Wrong | England will win Euro 2012 |
7232 | 2012-06-07 | 2012-07-01 | chimpsky | 1 | Wrong | Holland will win Euro 2012 |
7233 | 2012-06-07 | 2014-12-31 | chimpsky | 3 | Wrong | Manmohan Singh will be reelected as prime minister of India in 2014 |
7234 | 2012-06-07 | 2013-01-01 | chimpsky | 3 | Wrong | The United States reestablishes its embassy in Tehran by the end of 2012 |
7235 | 2012-06-07 | 2012-07-01 | chimpsky | 1 | Wrong | An earthquake >8 on Richter scale occurs in California in June 2012 |
7236 | 2012-06-07 | 2014-12-31 | chimpsky | 12 | Wrong | Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum |
7256 | 2012-06-10 | 2012-06-10 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7257 | 2012-06-10 | 2012-06-10 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7258 | 2012-06-10 | 2012-11-07 | Tuxedage | 1 | Right | Obama will win the 2012 United States presidential Elections. |
7259 | 2012-06-10 | 2020-01-01 | chimpsky | 3 | Right | F. Castro outlives Thatcher |
7260 | 2012-06-10 | 2012-06-10 | chimpsky | 2 | Right | Nadal wins the 2012 French Open |
7261 | 2012-06-10 | 2012-11-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Kevin Garnett will retire before the beginning of 2012-2013 season |
7265 | 2012-06-11 | 2012-06-11 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7266 | 2012-06-11 | 2012-06-11 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7271 | 2012-06-11 | 2013-06-11 | asdasdqwe | 3 | Wrong | Facebook will be worth $100 Billion. |
7277 | 2012-06-12 | 2012-06-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7278 | 2012-06-12 | 2012-06-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours. |
7281 | 2012-06-12 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | Zynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013 |
7285 | 2012-06-13 | 2013-06-06 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Wrong | At least one story in Kazaka Press's Bronies anthology will win a Nebula award in 2013. |
7286 | 2012-06-13 | 2013-05-01 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Wrong | At least one story in Kazka Press's Bronies anthology will be nominated for a 2013 Nebula award. |
7287 | 2012-06-13 | 2012-06-13 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours. |
7288 | 2012-06-13 | 2012-06-13 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7291 | 2012-06-13 | 2012-12-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Wrong | The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. |
7292 | 2012-06-13 | 2012-12-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Wrong | Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. |
7293 | 2012-06-13 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Socialist Party. |
7294 | 2012-06-13 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Labor Party. |
7295 | 2012-06-13 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the People's Party for Freedom. |
7296 | 2012-06-13 | 2014-02-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Social Democrat Party. |
7297 | 2012-06-13 | 2014-02-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Christian Democrat Party. |
7305 | 2012-06-14 | 2012-06-14 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours. |
7306 | 2012-06-14 | 2012-06-14 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my geometry flashcard deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 5 hours. |
7310 | 2012-06-14 | 2012-07-05 | tadrinth | 2 | Wrong | In Diablo 3 patch 1.0.3, the life on hit/proc coefficient for Fists of Thunder's Thunderclap rune will be reduced. |
7326 | 2012-06-17 | 2012-06-19 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Syriza won't win the most votes (out of all the parties) in the Greek election |
7337 | 2012-06-18 | 2012-06-18 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. |
7338 | 2012-06-18 | 2012-06-18 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7342 | 2012-06-18 | 2012-06-18 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 4 hours. |
7350 | 2012-06-19 | 2012-06-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. |
7351 | 2012-06-19 | 2012-06-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 12 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7352 | 2012-06-19 | 2012-06-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 7 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. |
7353 | 2012-06-19 | 2012-06-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7356 | 2012-06-19 | 2014-06-19 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Right | Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. |
7357 | 2012-06-19 | 2012-06-20 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Miami Heat will win game 4 of the NBA finals |
7361 | 2012-06-20 | 2012-06-20 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 8 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. |
7362 | 2012-06-20 | 2012-06-20 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will read chapter 2 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. |
7363 | 2012-06-20 | 2012-06-20 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. |
7364 | 2012-06-20 | 2012-06-20 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. |
7365 | 2012-06-20 | 2014-01-01 | bobpage | 7 | Right | Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 |
7388 | 2012-06-24 | 2012-06-24 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 13 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7389 | 2012-06-24 | 2012-06-24 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7398 | 2012-06-25 | 2012-06-25 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 15 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7399 | 2012-06-25 | 2012-06-25 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7400 | 2012-06-25 | 2012-06-25 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7401 | 2012-06-25 | 2012-06-25 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7411 | 2012-06-27 | 2012-06-27 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7418 | 2012-06-28 | 2032-06-28 | gwern | 2 | | I will be using Bash in 20 years |
7419 | 2012-06-28 | 2022-06-28 | gwern | 3 | | I will be using Firefox in 10 years |
7420 | 2012-06-28 | 2032-06-28 | gwern | 2 | | I will be using Firefox in 20 years |
7421 | 2012-06-28 | 2022-06-28 | gwern | 4 | | I will be using Emacs in 10 years |
7422 | 2012-06-28 | 2032-06-28 | gwern | 2 | | I will be using Emacs in 20 years |
7423 | 2012-06-28 | 2022-06-28 | gwern | 6 | | I will be using Linux in 10 years |
7424 | 2012-06-28 | 2032-06-28 | gwern | 2 | | I will be using Linux in 20 years |
7425 | 2012-06-29 | 2012-06-30 | papermachine | 2 | Wrong | The honorarium I'll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be between 75 and 125 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) |
7426 | 2012-06-29 | 2012-06-30 | papermachine | 2 | Right | The honorarium I’ll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be more than 126 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) |
7436 | 2012-07-01 | 2012-07-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. |
7437 | 2012-07-01 | 2012-07-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 1 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. |
7438 | 2012-07-01 | 2012-07-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. |
7439 | 2012-07-01 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 6 | Wrong | Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 |
7443 | 2012-07-02 | 2013-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Wrong | World record high temperature will reach or exceed 140 °F in 2012. |
7448 | 2012-07-02 | 2012-07-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7449 | 2012-07-02 | 2012-07-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7450 | 2012-07-02 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | I will be hired as a 'crime analyst' before 2013. |
7451 | 2012-07-02 | 2012-07-03 | Christopher | 4 | Wrong | My plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow |
7452 | 2012-07-02 | 2013-01-31 | sucrenoir | 6 | Right | AAPL share prices will reach $700 before December 2013 |
7453 | 2012-07-02 | 2013-07-01 | sucrenoir | 7 | Wrong | Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) |
7454 | 2012-07-02 | 2012-07-09 | sucrenoir | 3 | Wrong | Djokovic will win wimbledon 2012 |
7455 | 2012-07-02 | 2012-07-09 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | My "shaming" comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. |
7458 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-07-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. |
7459 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-07-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. |
7460 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-07-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. |
7461 | 2012-07-03 | 2013-01-03 | papermachine | 1 | Wrong | The picture of an Intel processor on http://www.appliedrationality.org/rationality/ is under copyright and was used without permission. |
7462 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-08-07 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 5 weeks. |
7463 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-08-14 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 6 weeks. |
7464 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-08-21 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 7 weeks. |
7465 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-08-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next month. |
7466 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-09-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 2 months. |
7467 | 2012-07-03 | 2012-10-03 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 3 months. |
7468 | 2012-07-04 | 2012-07-04 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. |
7469 | 2012-07-04 | 2012-07-04 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. |
7470 | 2012-07-04 | 2012-07-04 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. |
7486 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-07-08 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. |
7487 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-07-08 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 19 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. |
7488 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-07-08 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. |
7489 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-07-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | 'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/12/2012. |
7490 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-07-17 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | 'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/17/2012. |
7491 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-09-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an accounting profit before 09/2012. |
7492 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-09-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an economic profit before 09/2012. |
7493 | 2012-07-08 | 2012-11-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 15 | Wrong | Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. |
7496 | 2012-07-09 | 2012-07-09 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. |
7497 | 2012-07-09 | 2012-07-09 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete chapter 20 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. |
7498 | 2012-07-09 | 2012-07-09 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. |
7499 | 2012-07-09 | 2012-07-09 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will trim and reorganize my Anki deck within the next 8 hours. |
7523 | 2012-07-12 | 2013-03-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will have two or more offspring before 03/2013. |
7524 | 2012-07-12 | 2013-03-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will have three or more offspring before 03/2013. |
7525 | 2012-07-12 | 2013-03-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will have one or more offspring before 03/2013. |
7575 | 2012-07-19 | 2012-07-20 | whatifitsnot | 1 | Withdrawn | I will go to lunch with Kevin Schlax tomorrow. |
7607 | 2012-07-23 | 2022-07-23 | RandomThinker | 2 | | US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years |
7608 | 2012-07-23 | 2027-07-23 | RandomThinker | 2 | | Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years. |
7617 | 2012-07-24 | 2012-07-26 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | US basketball team will beat Spain by less than 12 points tonight |
7618 | 2012-07-24 | 2016-07-24 | RandomThinker | 9 | Wrong | Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years |
7619 | 2012-07-24 | 2012-11-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Ichiro will have a higher batting average for the Yankees (including playoffs) for the rest of the year than he did with Seattle |
7634 | 2012-07-26 | 2016-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | Google won't offer high speed internet in more than 3 cities by Jan 1 2016 |
7635 | 2012-07-26 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | The drought will change opinions re: climate change in the U.S. (measured by 2013 Gallup poll vs. 2012 Gallup poll > +3%) |
7638 | 2012-07-26 | 2013-04-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | 3d movie fad is over in US (measured by 2012 3D box office dropping another 20% from 2011) |
7639 | 2012-07-26 | 2016-07-26 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Instagram will peak at < 240m users in the next 4 years |
7640 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-09-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Usain Bolt won't win 100m gold medal in 2012 |
7641 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-09-15 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Missy Franklin will win 4 or more gold medals |
7642 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-09-15 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Michael Phelps will not solely win the most gold medals in 2012 (he may tie, but won't win the most outright). |
7643 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-09-15 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Lebron will continue to hog ball control in the 2012 olympics (measured by Chris Paul won't have more than 1 assist / per game more than Lebron) |
7644 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Kristin Stewart and Robert Pattinson will break up before end of 2012 |
7645 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 7 | Right | No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting |
7646 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) |
7647 | 2012-07-26 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Gabby Giffords (the congresswoman who was shot in 2011) will be attacked in a political ad in 2012 |
7648 | 2012-07-26 | 2014-07-26 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Tony Blair will pick a fight over some public issue with Bill Clinton in the next 2 years |
7654 | 2012-07-27 | 2012-08-05 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | Usain Bolt will win the 100m gold medal in the 2012 Olympics. |
7661 | 2012-07-28 | 2012-01-08 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | Anne Romney's horse will place in 2012 Olympics dressage competition. |
7701 | 2012-08-01 | 2016-11-12 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto. |
7702 | 2012-08-01 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) will be chosen as next NASA Discovery standalone mission. |
7703 | 2012-08-01 | 2033-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | | Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years. |
7704 | 2012-08-01 | 2018-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | | First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. |
7733 | 2012-08-04 | 2012-08-25 | fistpo | 1 | Right | Bruce Springsteen will play "She's the One" on August 24. |
7734 | 2012-08-04 | 2022-08-04 | gwern | 14 | | By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. |
7745 | 2012-08-06 | 2012-08-07 | clemux | 1 | Wrong | EUR/USD on or below 1.22 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. |
7746 | 2012-08-06 | 2015-01-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | Health care spending in the US will exceed 19% of GDP sometime before 2015. |
7751 | 2012-08-06 | 2012-10-06 | beo_shaffer | 1 | Withdrawn | will take advise and report improvement |
7759 | 2012-08-07 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will still use an Android-based mobile by 2015. |
7788 | 2012-08-10 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. |
7789 | 2012-08-10 | 2012-08-16 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will pass the written exam for the 'Crime Analyst' position on 08/16/2012. |
7790 | 2012-08-10 | 2013-06-15 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Kobe will average less than 24 pts a game in 2012-13 NBA season |
7791 | 2012-08-10 | 2014-11-15 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Mike Brown will be fired as coach of Lakers before 2014 NBA season |
7803 | 2012-08-12 | 2100-01-01 | asdadfa | 3 | | How/"why" (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature. |
7804 | 2012-08-12 | 2013-12-31 | dhoe | 2 | Right | Angela Merkel will be reelected chancellor in 2013 |
7809 | 2012-08-13 | 2014-08-13 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Google will write off more than $2b for Motorola purchase over the next 2 years. |
7814 | 2012-08-14 | 2022-12-31 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) |
7815 | 2012-08-14 | 2032-11-10 | gwern | 17 | | An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. |
7819 | 2012-08-15 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Linda McMahon (wife of wrestling CEO) won't win seat as Connecticut senator |
7820 | 2012-08-15 | 2040-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | | China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 |
7821 | 2012-08-15 | 2040-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | | Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 |
7822 | 2012-08-15 | 2040-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | | Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 |
7825 | 2012-08-16 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 6 | Right | Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 |
7879 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Right | North Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013. |
7880 | 2012-08-21 | 2012-09-01 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | Akin will quit before 1st September 2012 |
7881 | 2012-08-21 | 2016-01-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Virginia Rometty, IBM CEO, still won't be Augusta National golf course member by Jan, 2016 |
7882 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Best Buy will be taken private before December 2013 |
7883 | 2012-08-21 | 2016-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Right | There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016 |
7884 | 2012-08-21 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | Romney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election |
7885 | 2012-08-21 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Ron Paul won't have significant speaking role in 2012 Republican convention |
7886 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | NFL 2012: Packers will win NFC North division |
7887 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | NFL 2012: Falcons will win NFC South |
7888 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | NFL 2012: Cowboys will win NFC East |
7889 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | NFL 2012: 49ers will win NFC West |
7890 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | NFL 2012: Steelers will win AFC North |
7891 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | NFL 2012: Texans will win AFC South |
7892 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | NFL 2012: Patriots will win AFC East |
7893 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | NFL 2012: Chargers will win AFC West |
7894 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | NFL 2012: Lions will finish with better regular season record than the Bears |
7895 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-02-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | NFL 2012: Andrew Luck will have a better season than Robert Griffin (measured by QBR ratings on espn.com for regular season) |
7896 | 2012-08-21 | 2013-01-15 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least January 15, 2013 |
7897 | 2012-08-21 | 2012-08-21 | Wes | 1 | Wrong | Email will be sent once |
7898 | 2012-08-21 | 2022-08-21 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | | Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation--b being the dense former core of c. |
7905 | 2012-08-22 | 2061-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | | The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years. |
7906 | 2012-08-22 | 2012-11-07 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Wrong | Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. |
7911 | 2012-08-23 | 2013-08-28 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | August 2013 hard drive prices: 37-43 GB/$ |
7921 | 2012-08-23 | 2014-03-28 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | March 2014 hard drive prices: 50-58 GB/$ |
7925 | 2012-08-23 | 2012-11-10 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | Akin to get at least 40% of the vote in the Missouri election (conditional on him not dropping out). |
7935 | 2012-08-25 | 2013-02-25 | gwern | 3 | Right | Geoff Greer will have a job within 6 months. |
7936 | 2012-08-25 | 2013-08-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | All 9 wounded bystanders in NY Midtown incident were shot by the cops rather than the original shooter |
7937 | 2012-08-25 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | NYPD will publicly reassess its shooting policy for its officers before end of 2013 |
7944 | 2012-08-25 | 2014-08-26 | two2thehead | 8 | Wrong | Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com |
7973 | 2012-08-27 | 2032-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | China's one child policy will end before 2032 |
7976 | 2012-08-27 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Lebron won't be MVP of NBA 2013 season |
7981 | 2012-08-28 | 2013-01-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 |
7982 | 2012-08-28 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Bob Mansfield will re-retire by end of 2013 |
7983 | 2012-08-28 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Twitter will win privacy fight over Occupy Wall Street tweets (at least as to email address) |
7984 | 2012-08-28 | 2013-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | China will be the biggest smartphone app market by beginning of 2013 |
7985 | 2012-08-28 | 2012-08-28 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 2: active? |
7988 | 2012-08-28 | 2016-07-01 | RandomThinker | 7 | Right | Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 |
7989 | 2012-08-28 | 2012-08-29 | Christopher | 1 | Wrong | Writing about my English teacher will be the idea I stick with for my Stanford essay. |
7990 | 2012-08-28 | 2012-08-29 | Christopher | 1 | Right | I will finish and be happy with my rough draft of my Stanford essay by tomorrow evening. |
7991 | 2012-08-28 | 2012-08-28 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 3: active? |
7998 | 2012-08-29 | 2032-08-29 | beo_shaffer | 2 | | Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la |
7999 | 2012-08-29 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Farhad Manjoo: Kindle to be free with Amazon Prime by end of 2013 |
8000 | 2012-08-29 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 6 | Right | Apple won't sue Google over Android before end of 2013 |
8003 | 2012-08-29 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 3 | | NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno |
8004 | 2012-08-29 | 2012-09-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Matthew Wright will lose his pirateat40 bet, and will pay out in full |
8036 | 2012-08-31 | 2012-09-21 | ggreer | 1 | Right | HN user tsunamifury will comment on HN again. |
8039 | 2012-08-31 | 2012-10-20 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Wrong | The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. |
8040 | 2012-08-31 | 2012-10-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | The NFL and the refs won't come to a labor agreement before Oct 1 |
8046 | 2012-09-01 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | 5 or less students will be expelled as a result of the Harvard cheating scandal (125 students investigated) |
8068 | 2012-09-02 | 2013-09-02 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 1 year |
8069 | 2012-09-02 | 2014-09-02 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 2 years, |
8074 | 2012-09-02 | 2016-11-01 | NathanMcKnight | 13 | Wrong | The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. |
8075 | 2012-09-02 | 2016-12-01 | NathanMcKnight | 23 | Wrong | A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. |
8096 | 2012-09-04 | 2014-01-01 | lukeprog | 4 | Right | I'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013. |
8100 | 2012-09-04 | 2012-10-01 | lukeprog | 1 | Right | All previously published SI research papers will be typeset in the new template before the end of the month. |
8101 | 2012-09-04 | 2012-12-01 | lukeprog | 2 | Right | The complete Russian translation of Facing the Singularity will be posted to facingthesingularity.com by the end of November. |
8105 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | lukeprog | 2 | Right | I will visit Oxford UK this year. |
8106 | 2012-09-04 | 2050-01-01 | lukeprog | 8 | | No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. |
8117 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-09-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Facebook CFO will be fired or depart within a year (by September 1 2013) |
8118 | 2012-09-04 | 2012-09-15 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Fed won't announce QE3 at their Sept 12-13 meeting |
8119 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will enroll in chemistry courses at a local community college before 2013. |
8120 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will start a 2nd startup before 2013. |
8121 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Wrong | I will be hired as a Civilian Investigation Specialist before 2013. |
8122 | 2012-09-04 | 2014-01-01 | lukeprog | 3 | Right | "The Singularity and Machine Ethics" will have been cited more than 5 times, according to Google Scholar, by the end of 2013. |
8123 | 2012-09-04 | 2012-09-21 | lukeprog | 1 | Right | One week after its release, 'The Master' will hold a score of 85% or above on RottenTomatoes. |
8124 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | lukeprog | 2 | Right | One week after its release, 'Django Unchained' will hold a score of 80% or above on RottenTomatoes. |
8125 | 2012-09-04 | 2012-10-01 | lukeprog | 2 | Right | I'll have read through chapter 20 in HPMoR by the end of this month. |
8126 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | lukeprog | 2 | Right | My 'guide to modern classical music' won't be finished by the end of the year. |
8127 | 2012-09-04 | 2032-09-04 | NancyLebovitz | 7 | | At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. |
8128 | 2012-09-04 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2013 |
8129 | 2012-09-04 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2014 |
8130 | 2012-09-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2015 |
8131 | 2012-09-04 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | EoE will be released on Bluray in 2013 |
8132 | 2012-09-04 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | EoE will be released on Bluray in 2014 |
8133 | 2012-09-04 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | EoE will be released on Bluray in 2015 |
8134 | 2012-09-04 | 2013-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Silk Road will drop its hedging service by 2013. |
8135 | 2012-09-05 | 2019-01-01 | gwern | 6 | | Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. |
8141 | 2012-09-05 | 2012-12-06 | gwern | 1 | Right | My LSD order will arrive. |
8142 | 2012-09-05 | 2012-12-06 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | I will be visited or questioned or arrested by police over my LSD order. |
8143 | 2012-09-05 | 2013-09-05 | Ben Doherty | 4 | Wrong | I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me |
8144 | 2012-09-06 | 2013-03-06 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | I will cease to identify as an atheist after my LSD trip. |
8145 | 2012-09-06 | 2012-09-06 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 7: active? |
8157 | 2012-09-06 | 2012-09-08 | williamycai | 1 | Wrong | I will not end up buying premium cat food tomorrow... and my mew mews' have to eat supermarket grade food for the day.. |
8160 | 2012-09-07 | 2012-09-28 | gwern | 1 | Right | LSD: My trip will be generally positive (and not a 'bad trip'). |
8161 | 2012-09-07 | 2017-09-30 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. |
8162 | 2012-09-07 | 2016-02-01 | gwern | 25 | Right | Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. |
8163 | 2012-09-07 | 2016-09-30 | gwern | 8 | Right | Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. |
8164 | 2012-09-07 | 2016-11-09 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. |
8165 | 2012-09-07 | 2014-01-01 | Filipe | 11 | Wrong | Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell |
8173 | 2012-09-07 | 2012-09-11 | williamycai | 1 | Wrong | No additional changes will be made to my design project after Tues |
8174 | 2012-09-07 | 2012-09-13 | williamycai | 1 | Right | I will be able to leave office before 6pm everyday this week. |
8180 | 2012-09-07 | 2037-09-07 | gwern | 5 | | I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years. |
8183 | 2012-09-08 | 2012-12-06 | lepido | 2 | Right | Obama will win election |
8184 | 2012-09-08 | 2052-09-08 | gwern | 9 | | In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. |
8185 | 2012-09-08 | 2052-09-08 | gwern | 6 | | I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. |
8186 | 2012-09-08 | 2012-09-16 | William-Quixote | 4 | Right | NYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th |
8187 | 2012-09-08 | 2012-09-16 | William-Quixote | 1 | Wrong | NYTimes: Bill Keller will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th |
8188 | 2012-09-08 | 2012-09-16 | William-Quixote | 3 | Wrong | NYTimes: Thomas Friedman will make a (charitably) a testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th |
8189 | 2012-09-08 | 2012-09-16 | William-Quixote | 2 | Wrong | NYTimes: Ross Douthat will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th |
8190 | 2012-09-08 | 2012-09-16 | William-Quixote | 2 | Wrong | NYTimes: Charles Blow will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th |
8191 | 2012-09-08 | 2012-09-16 | William-Quixote | 3 | Right | NYTimes: David Brooks will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th |
8192 | 2012-09-08 | 2013-06-30 | William-Quixote | 8 | Wrong | PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 |
8204 | 2012-09-09 | 2013-12-31 | Athrelon | 8 | Right | The "Anonymous Narratives by LW Women" thread will receive >100 comments |
8205 | 2012-09-09 | 2013-12-31 | Konkvistador | 8 | Right | The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments |
8206 | 2012-09-10 | 2012-11-15 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | US unemployment rate below 8% by the 2012 election (last reported number before the election) |
8217 | 2012-09-10 | 2012-10-10 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | My extortionist will reply at all. |
8218 | 2012-09-10 | 2012-10-10 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | My extortionist will reply and attempt a different extortion. |
8219 | 2012-09-11 | 2018-01-01 | puritan | 3 | Wrong | If a large random portion of the Afghanistan population is forced to change gender presentation (the "sneetch" solution) by 2015, by 2018 the country will have passed anti-gender-discrimination laws for employment, housing, and education. |
8220 | 2012-09-11 | 2012-09-11 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 9: active? |
8221 | 2012-09-11 | 2012-10-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | If I trade in my 2006 Scion tC this month, then I will get equal to or greater than $5,600 for it. |
8245 | 2012-09-13 | 2012-09-13 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 11: active? |
8252 | 2012-09-13 | 2013-03-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video |
8253 | 2012-09-13 | 2012-10-01 | jakewalker | 2 | Right | I will have finished reading up through the latest chapter HPMOR by Oct. 1st |
8254 | 2012-09-13 | 2012-10-31 | jakewalker | 1 | Wrong | I will have finished reading "Four Witnesses: The Early Church in Her Own Words" by Oct. 31st |
8259 | 2012-09-14 | 2012-11-16 | huggins | 1 | Right | I will become student senator |
8260 | 2012-09-14 | 2013-07-15 | Porejide | 1 | Wrong | Conditional upon the website existing and the NFL season occuring (and of course, the world not ending), Stephen Hill (NYJ) will be rated in the top 50 WR's at http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/wr.php next year on July 15. |
8267 | 2012-09-15 | 2013-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | Right | By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin. |
8271 | 2012-09-15 | 2014-02-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Fed will change the monthly QE3 purchase size/type by Feb 2014 (now $40b MBS a month) |
8272 | 2012-09-15 | 2015-10-01 | RandomThinker | 11 | Wrong | There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) |
8273 | 2012-09-15 | 2017-10-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | There'll be press report of significant protest in China in the next 5 years against anti-Chinese video released on the internet. |
8274 | 2012-09-15 | 2022-10-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | There'll be press report of "martial law" imposed on the internet by a major country in the next 10 years |
8275 | 2012-09-15 | 2012-09-22 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | I will get my motorcycle license in a week or less. |
8276 | 2012-09-15 | 2013-03-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Withdrawn | So called "Fiscal Cliff" won't cause US govt credit to be downgraded by 2 or more of big 3 (S&P, Moody, Fitch) |
8277 | 2012-09-15 | 2013-09-15 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Wrong | Mars nodules discovered on 9/14/12 will be analyzed and described as carbonate ooids in at least one refereed journal within a year. |
8282 | 2012-09-16 | 2012-09-16 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 13: active? |
8283 | 2012-09-16 | 2015-09-16 | gwern | 5 | Wrong | Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. --Michael Pettis |
8286 | 2012-09-17 | 2016-01-02 | RobertLumley | 19 | Right | HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. |
8287 | 2012-09-17 | 2016-01-02 | RobertLumley | 9 | Wrong | HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will *be used* to create a dementor. |
8288 | 2012-09-17 | 2012-09-17 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 14: active? |
8289 | 2012-09-17 | 2013-05-15 | PlacidPlatypus | 7 | Wrong | I will be ranked Diamond League in Starcraft II 1v1 by the end of the school year. |
8293 | 2012-09-17 | 2017-01-01 | jarlathhealy | 1 | Wrong | 2016: Hepatitis C vaccine becomes headlines as its rolled out into manufacturing. The Hep C vaccine also throws those fighting the virus currently; into an automatic state of remission with help of cocktail enhancers. |
8294 | 2012-09-17 | 2020-01-01 | jarlathhealy | 3 | Wrong | 2019: HIV is able to be thrown into remission in HIV+ individuals carrying the HIV-1 strain, only. Further research is needed for HIV-2. |
8295 | 2012-09-17 | 2016-01-01 | jarlathhealy | 3 | Wrong | 2014: Malaria vaccine enters manufacturing. This vaccine is available in 2015. |
8296 | 2012-09-17 | 2019-01-01 | jarlathhealy | 5 | Wrong | 2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. |
8297 | 2012-09-17 | 2025-01-01 | jarlathhealy | 8 | | 2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. |
8300 | 2012-09-18 | 2012-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes: Apple to sell 45.21 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 22 percent from last year. |
8301 | 2012-09-18 | 2022-09-19 | NathanMcKnight | 15 | | In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. |
8302 | 2012-09-18 | 2013-04-30 | gwern | 8 | Wrong | The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. |
8307 | 2012-09-19 | 2020-06-16 | Jach | 8 | Wrong | Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 |
8313 | 2012-09-20 | 2013-01-20 | papermachine | 3 | Wrong | I will find _Accel World_ interesting enough to watch the whole first season. |
8338 | 2012-09-21 | 2017-12-31 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 |
8341 | 2012-09-21 | 2013-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will watch 90%+ of Love Exposure (2008) before 2013 |
8342 | 2012-09-21 | 2016-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Wrong | In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. |
8343 | 2012-09-21 | 2012-12-15 | RandomThinker | 7 | Right | Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election |
8344 | 2012-09-21 | 2013-07-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | "Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule" --Bets of Bitcoin |
8345 | 2012-09-21 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 1 | | _Aoki Uru_ will be released as a full movie by 2030. |
8346 | 2012-09-21 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | _Aoki Uru_ will be released as a full movie by 2020. |
8347 | 2012-09-22 | 2012-11-05 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Beyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election. |
8351 | 2012-09-22 | 2014-09-22 | paulharris | 8 | Wrong | Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years |
8352 | 2012-09-22 | 2012-11-14 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | I will see a visible color difference in my photographs of my eye before and after iodine supplementation. |
8371 | 2012-09-24 | 2012-10-01 | wallowinmaya | 1 | Right | I will play WoW for less than 5 hours this week |
8378 | 2012-09-24 | 2022-09-24 | gwern | 3 | | No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. |
8379 | 2012-09-24 | 2012-09-24 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 18: active? |
8382 | 2012-09-25 | 2013-05-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Gene Munster + Brian White: APPL price target of > $910 by May 2013 |
8387 | 2012-09-26 | 2022-09-26 | learnmethis | 4 | | It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. |
8388 | 2012-09-26 | 2032-09-26 | learnmethis | 4 | Right | A major tech startup (valuation > 10 million dollars) will be launched out of a country or by native citizens of a country ranked in the lowest 100 of GDP per capita according to the CIA factbook. |
8389 | 2012-09-26 | 2015-09-26 | learnmethis | 17 | Wrong | HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. |
8390 | 2012-09-26 | 2017-09-26 | learnmethis | 3 | | A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years |
8391 | 2012-09-26 | 2022-09-26 | learnmethis | 5 | | Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. |
8392 | 2012-09-26 | 2012-09-26 | gwern | 1 | Right | DNB/nicotine day 19: active? |
8393 | 2012-09-26 | 2012-09-27 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will add a glossary to my Less Wrong article within 24 hours. |
8399 | 2012-09-27 | 2017-09-27 | lukeprog | 7 | Right | No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. |
8400 | 2012-09-27 | 2112-09-27 | gwern | 10 | | Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts |
8444 | 2012-09-29 | 2061-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 8 | | Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. |
8445 | 2012-09-30 | 2012-09-30 | gwern | 1 | Right | DNB/nicotine day 21: active? |
8446 | 2012-09-30 | 2013-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will beat Deus Ex: Human Revolution in Spanish before 2013. |
8447 | 2012-09-30 | 2012-11-06 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Mathematical Thinking'. |
8448 | 2012-09-30 | 2012-11-13 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Learn to Program: The Fundamentals'. |
8449 | 2012-09-30 | 2012-11-12 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Logic'. |
8459 | 2012-10-01 | 2070-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 10 | | By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce |
8460 | 2012-10-01 | 2014-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 5 | Wrong | A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 |
8461 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 12 | | Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8462 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 5 | | By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. -- Axel Boldt |
8463 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 8 | | The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8464 | 2012-10-01 | 2021-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 13 | | Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey |
8467 | 2012-10-01 | 2151-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 1 | Withdrawn | At least one person will reach 150 years of age by 2150. -- Steve Austad |
8470 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 2 | | A "theory of everything" combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8471 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 13 | | Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8472 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 11 | | Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8473 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 13 | | Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8474 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 16 | | Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8475 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 11 | | Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8476 | 2012-10-01 | 2041-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 11 | | Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt |
8477 | 2012-10-01 | 2100-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 2 | | Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. -- David Pearce |
8478 | 2012-10-01 | 2101-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 7 | | By 2100, the vast majority of "people" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson |
8479 | 2012-10-01 | 2101-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 7 | | By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson |
8480 | 2012-10-01 | 9999-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 14 | | Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson |
8481 | 2012-10-01 | 2101-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 3 | | If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. -- Robin Hanson |
8482 | 2012-10-01 | 2101-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 7 | | If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson |
8487 | 2012-10-02 | 2012-11-21 | _W_ | 1 | Wrong | The first episode of the third season of MLP:FIM will first be broadcast on November 20'th |
8488 | 2012-10-02 | 2012-10-02 | gwern | 1 | Right | DNB/nicotine day 23: active? |
8489 | 2012-10-02 | 2100-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | | Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100. |
8490 | 2012-10-02 | 2040-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 8 | | By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. |
8558 | 2012-10-05 | 2012-10-05 | Emanuel Rylke | 1 | Right | I will implement obstacles in my game today. |
8564 | 2012-10-06 | 2050-12-31 | RandomThinker | 7 | | They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 |
8565 | 2012-10-06 | 2014-01-01 | Pablo Stafforini | 1 | Right | In 2013, the ratio of anecdotes confirming Seth Roberts's various pet theories published in Roberts's blog, relative to those disconfirming them, will be at least 10 to one. |
8566 | 2012-10-06 | 2017-10-06 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years |
8567 | 2012-10-06 | 2022-10-06 | gwern | 3 | | D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years |
8568 | 2012-10-06 | 2015-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015 |
8569 | 2012-10-06 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 5 | Right | D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 |
8570 | 2012-10-06 | 2016-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016 |
8571 | 2012-10-06 | 2018-01-01 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 |
8584 | 2012-10-08 | 2013-04-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Gangnam Style won't be on Billboard 100 digital song chart by April 1, 2013 |
8585 | 2012-10-08 | 2013-04-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | Gangnam Style will still be on the Billboard Youtube list by April 1, 2013 |
8605 | 2012-10-10 | 2012-10-10 | gwern | 1 | Right | DNB/nicotine day 25: active? |
8610 | 2012-10-10 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | I will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014. |
8611 | 2012-10-10 | 2020-01-01 | RandomThinker | 6 | | By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. |
8650 | 2012-10-13 | 2014-01-01 | chemotaxis101 | 3 | Wrong | A paper written or co-written by me is _accepted_ for publication in the journal "Information Sciences" by 2013. |
8680 | 2012-10-14 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will post a formal version of my primary argument for simulation-theism on Less Wrong before 2014. |
8757 | 2012-10-15 | 2014-01-01 | chemotaxis101 | 7 | Wrong | By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. |
8776 | 2012-10-17 | 2012-12-11 | Qiaochu | 3 | Withdrawn | At least 25% of MIT's numbers in the Dropbox Space Race (https://www.dropbox.com/spacerace) are from some kind of cheating (a script, virtual machines, etc.). |
8783 | 2012-10-17 | 2012-10-17 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | Housemate one-boxes |
8798 | 2012-10-17 | 2022-10-18 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | | Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. |
8829 | 2012-10-21 | 2014-01-01 | jacobian | 2 | Wrong | The SWP will split with 5-15 members joining the ULA. The SWP will decide to remain in the ULA for at least one year after the event. |
8830 | 2012-10-21 | 2060-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 14 | | By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. |
8831 | 2012-10-21 | 2012-10-21 | gwern | 1 | Right | DNB/nicotine day 29: active? |
8854 | 2012-10-22 | 2012-10-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | There are at least 4 false things reported as "rumors" in this ValueWalk article about the iPad Mini, starting with the $329 price |
8904 | 2012-10-24 | 2014-12-31 | Aticper | 8 | Wrong | By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. |
8905 | 2012-10-24 | 2017-12-31 | Aticper | 3 | Wrong | Within five years (2017), motion-controlled augmented reality headsets will be widespread in the consumer market, selling millions of units and beginning to overtake multitouch screens as the primary mode of mobile computer interaction. |
8906 | 2012-10-24 | 2017-12-31 | Aticper | 3 | | Within three years (2015), a AAA level gaming title (with professional voice acting, at least Xbox 360 level graphics, and a multimillion dollar budget) will be released for a mobile (smart phone) platform. |
8907 | 2012-10-24 | 2027-12-31 | Aticper | 3 | | Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down. However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years. |
8908 | 2012-10-24 | 2032-12-31 | Aticper | 5 | | A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032). |
8909 | 2012-10-24 | 2062-12-31 | Aticper | 4 | | Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. |
8910 | 2012-10-24 | 2022-12-31 | Aticper | 7 | | Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). |
8913 | 2012-10-24 | 2017-01-01 | RandomThinker | 15 | Wrong | Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term |
8914 | 2012-10-24 | 2014-01-01 | RandomThinker | 6 | Right | Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts |
8915 | 2012-10-24 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Right | Assuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary |
8916 | 2012-10-24 | 2014-02-15 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Assuming Obama wins second term, Bernanke will continue as Fed chairman |
8923 | 2012-10-24 | 2012-11-06 | SaramMueller | 1 | Right | Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential Election |
8930 | 2012-10-25 | 2012-10-25 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | DNB/nicotine day 32: active? |
8948 | 2012-10-26 | 2012-11-10 | RandomThinker | 14 | Wrong | Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election |
8959 | 2012-10-26 | 2012-11-15 | gusl | 3 | Right | Obama will be re-elected on the 2012 presidential election. |
8990 | 2012-10-28 | 2012-11-28 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month and will clearly confirm or deny authorship. |
8991 | 2012-10-28 | 2012-11-28 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on a reply and clear answer, Charles Parlapanides will claim Parlapanides' authorship. |
9001 | 2012-10-28 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | Regardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major "debt deal" before mid 2013 |
9007 | 2012-10-29 | 2023-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 13 | | In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. |
9008 | 2012-10-29 | 2023-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | | In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. |
9009 | 2012-10-29 | 2012-11-25 | Qiaochu | 5 | Right | My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks. |
9028 | 2012-10-29 | 2012-11-08 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | Romney will win Florida |
9029 | 2012-10-29 | 2012-12-08 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | Obama will win Colorado |
9030 | 2012-10-29 | 2012-12-08 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | Romney will win Iowa |
9057 | 2012-10-29 | 2012-10-31 | gusl | 3 | Right | The NYC subway will remain fully closed for all of Tuesday. |
9062 | 2012-10-30 | 2017-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 10 | Wrong | Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. |
9086 | 2012-10-31 | 2012-11-03 | SorcererofDM | 1 | Wrong | I will finish mixing my song in 3 days |
9109 | 2012-11-01 | 2012-11-16 | abc123456 | 3 | Right | Li Keqiang will be appointed the next Premier of the State Council of China. |
9110 | 2012-11-01 | 2012-11-16 | abc123456 | 3 | Right | Wang Yang will not be appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China. |
9113 | 2012-11-01 | 2015-01-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Summly, news summary app created by 16 yr old, will be a flop (as judged in Jan 2015) |
9114 | 2012-11-01 | 2015-01-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Reed Hastings will not be CEO of Netflix by 2015 |
9115 | 2012-11-01 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Google will close above $800 before Apple. |
9203 | 2012-11-02 | 2015-12-31 | RandomThinker | 20 | Right | New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones |
9221 | 2012-11-03 | 2013-01-03 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | Geoff Greer & co's YC application will result in an interview. |
9222 | 2012-11-03 | 2013-11-16 | ggreer | 4 | Wrong | My application for Y Combinator will be good enough to get me an interview. |
9484 | 2012-11-06 | 2014-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Assuming dems hold Senate in 2012, republicans retake Senate in 2014 mid term elections |
9485 | 2012-11-06 | 2014-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | John Kerry is more likely to be Secretary of State than Susan Rice |
9486 | 2012-11-06 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Valerie Jarett will not be White House Chief of Staff |
9487 | 2012-11-06 | 2013-09-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Withdrawn | Erskine Bowles is more likely to be Secretary of Treasury than Larry Finke + Roger Altman put together |
9488 | 2012-11-06 | 2014-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Larry Summers won't be Fed Chairman in 2014 |
9489 | 2012-11-06 | 2016-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | | Jonathan Ives will be viewed as a flop as iphone, ipad head (as judged by hindsight in 2016) |
9490 | 2012-11-06 | 2012-12-06 | Sarokrae | 1 | Right | The Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/11/12-06/12/12 |
9491 | 2012-11-06 | 2013-01-06 | Sarokrae | 1 | Right | The Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/12/12-06/01/13 |
9545 | 2012-11-07 | 2016-11-10 | Jach | 7 | Wrong | The US economy will be "worse" in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) |
9546 | 2012-11-07 | 2016-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | After a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a "center-left" country during the Obama term. |
9547 | 2012-11-07 | 2016-05-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Chris Christie is not going to be within top 3 in Iowa causes in 2016 |
9548 | 2012-11-07 | 2014-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Withdrawn | Like Bob Dole, Romney will be more popular 2 years after the election than during the election |
9549 | 2012-11-07 | 2016-06-01 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | Romney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes |
9550 | 2012-11-07 | 2016-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | | Romney will publicly embrace Romneycare before end of Obama term |
9551 | 2012-11-07 | 2016-11-30 | RandomThinker | 27 | Wrong | The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! |
9552 | 2012-11-07 | 2012-11-30 | kiba | 1 | Wrong | I will finish khanacademy by the end of this month. (380 out of 380 oncepts or more) http://www.khanacademy.org/profile/hackerkiba I have completed 323 out of 380 by November 7th 2012. Given that I seem to progressed at 2 concepts per day in order to rea |
9553 | 2012-11-07 | 2012-11-08 | gwern | 1 | Right | LSD microdosing experiment: pair 3: placebo then active? |
9554 | 2012-11-07 | 2016-12-31 | RandomThinker | 5 | | There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters) |
9585 | 2012-11-08 | 2013-12-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | Obama's not going to officially approve of the legalization of pot in Colorado and Washington |
9622 | 2012-11-09 | 2013-11-09 | alecbrooks | 1 | Right | I will still be using this in a year. |
9623 | 2012-11-09 | 2013-11-09 | alecbrooks | 2 | Wrong | I will try either Acme, Emacs, or both over the coming year. |
9624 | 2012-11-09 | 2016-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | Right | Apple will still use intel CPUs in Macs in 2016 |
9627 | 2012-11-09 | 2016-11-10 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Wrong | The Democratic candidate takes Georgia in 2016 |
9628 | 2012-11-09 | 2012-11-11 | alecbrooks | 3 | Wrong | Tori Dykes' tweet (https://twitter.com/toridykes/status/266032621690171392) will not reach 2,000 RTs by Sunday. |
9629 | 2012-11-09 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 18 | Wrong | By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union |
9647 | 2012-11-09 | 2014-12-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | In the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist |
9696 | 2012-11-10 | 2012-11-17 | ohAitch | 1 | Withdrawn | I will begin using twitter |
9797 | 2012-11-12 | 2030-01-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | | IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030 |
9798 | 2012-11-12 | 2015-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | Right | IEA: US to overtake Russia as the leading producer of natural gas in 2015. |
9799 | 2012-11-12 | 2035-12-31 | RandomThinker | 4 | | IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. |
9824 | 2012-11-13 | 2012-11-17 | The_sacred_Sponge | 1 | Wrong | at least 5 birthday emails |
9863 | 2012-11-13 | 2017-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Withdrawn | “The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer by about 2017.” -International Energy Agency |
9864 | 2012-11-13 | 2013-03-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will receive a certificate of completion for ‘Think Again: How to Reason and Argue’. |
9952 | 2012-11-15 | 2012-12-01 | tedks | 6 | Wrong | Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $17/BTC at the end of November, 2012. |
9979 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9980 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat Carolina Panthers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9981 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Washington Redskins will beat Philidelphia Eagles in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9982 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Wrong | St. Louis Rams will beat New York Jets in Week 11 of the 2012 NFL Season |
9983 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Houston Texans will beat Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9984 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat Detroit Lions in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9985 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9986 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-18 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9987 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-19 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: New Orleans Saints will beat Oakland Raiders in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9988 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-19 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: New England Patriots will beat Indianapolis Colts in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9989 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-19 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Denver Broncos will beat San Diego Chargers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9990 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-12-07 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | Average 7 day ROI across all B AW Cs will be >200% within 3 weeks. |
9991 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-19 | dwibby | 3 | Right | NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9992 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-20 | dwibby | 3 | Wrong | NFL: Chicago Bears will beat San Francisco 49ers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season |
9993 | 2012-11-16 | 2012-11-20 | dwibby | 1 | Wrong | DWibby's Week 11 NFL predictions based on intuitive confidence scale (rated from 0-5, and mapped to 50-100% at 10% intervals) will be at least 5% less than true accuracy at each 10% interval. |
10023 | 2012-11-16 | 2014-11-16 | gwern | 4 | Wrong | HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years |
10055 | 2012-11-18 | 2013-12-25 | dhoe | 1 | Wrong | NL: Housing price will have fallen > 8% year on year in Dec '13 |
10072 | 2012-11-19 | 2013-07-31 | RandomMovie | 3 | Wrong | Superman 2 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 227.53) |
10073 | 2012-11-19 | 2013-12-01 | RandomMovie | 8 | Right | Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) |
10074 | 2012-11-19 | 2013-04-15 | RandomMovie | 3 | Right | Oz the Great and Power will do better than expected (4wk gross > HSX @ 157.4m) |
10075 | 2012-11-19 | 2014-06-30 | RandomMovie | 2 | Right | Captain America Winter Soldier will do about as expected (4wk gross within +/-20% of HSX @ 191.90m) |
10215 | 2012-11-20 | 2013-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 14 | Wrong | Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. |
10265 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat Oakland Raiders in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10266 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: New England Patriots will beat NY Jets in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10267 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Wrong | NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat Miami Dolphins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10268 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Wrong | NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Washington Redskins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10269 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: Houston Texans will beat Detroit Lions in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10270 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10271 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Wrong | NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10272 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: Chicago Bears will beat Minnesota Vikings in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10273 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat Tennessee Titans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10274 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-12-31 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: SF 49ers will beat New Orleans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10275 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Wrong | NFL: Arizona Cardinals will beat St Louis Rams in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10276 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10277 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-12-31 | RandomNFL | 2 | Wrong | NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat NY Giants in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10278 | 2012-11-22 | 2012-11-28 | RandomNFL | 2 | Right | NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat Buffalo Bills in Week 12 of the 2012 Season |
10371 | 2012-11-24 | 2023-01-01 | lukeprog | 9 | | By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance |
10372 | 2012-11-24 | 2023-01-01 | lukeprog | 4 | | By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. --Alyssa Vance |
10503 | 2012-11-25 | 2012-12-31 | Sarokrae | 5 | Right | Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 |
10504 | 2012-11-25 | 2012-12-21 | Sarokrae | 9 | Right | Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 |
10505 | 2012-11-25 | 2012-12-11 | Sarokrae | 5 | Wrong | Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 |
10506 | 2012-11-25 | 2012-12-01 | Sarokrae | 8 | Wrong | Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 |
10507 | 2012-11-25 | 2013-12-31 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Wrong | "I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close." --John Heilemann, NY Magazine |
10508 | 2012-11-25 | 2062-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | Martian "dark sand cascades" are found to be evidence of microbial activity. |
10747 | 2012-11-28 | 2014-01-01 | rbhamilton@gmail.com | 1 | Wrong | We will go over the fiscal cliff in some fashion but it wont be as bad as people say. |
10908 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10909 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10910 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Philly Eagles in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10911 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: GB Packers will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10912 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: New England Patriots will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10913 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the KC Chiefs in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10914 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10915 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10916 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Buffalo Bills will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10917 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: NY Giants will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10918 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: NY Jets will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10919 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10920 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-06 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 13 of the 2012 season |
10943 | 2012-11-29 | 2013-12-31 | ChristianKl | 1 | Right | I won’t try the Everyman sleep shedule in 2013. |
10944 | 2012-11-29 | 2013-12-31 | ChristianKl | 1 | Right | I will still live in Berlin at the end of 2013 |
10945 | 2012-11-29 | 2013-12-31 | ChristianKl | 1 | Wrong | I will weight more than 60 kg at the end of 2013. |
10946 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-31 | ChristianKl | 1 | Wrong | I will weight more than 57 kg on 2012-12-31 |
10947 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-31 | ChristianKl | 1 | Wrong | I will weight more than 58 kg on 2012-12-31 |
10948 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-31 | ChristianKl | 1 | Wrong | I will weight less than 54 kg on 2012-12-31 |
10962 | 2012-11-29 | 2013-12-31 | ChristianKl | 2 | Right | My LessWrong karma will be over 2000 at the end of 2013 |
10963 | 2012-11-29 | 2014-01-01 | ChristianKl | 6 | Right | Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013. |
10964 | 2012-11-29 | 2032-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | | Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. |
10965 | 2012-11-29 | 2014-12-31 | ChristianKl | 2 | Right | I will still live in Berlin at the end of 2014 |
10976 | 2012-11-29 | 2012-12-19 | onthestairs | 1 | Withdrawn | test |
11085 | 2012-12-01 | 2013-05-16 | tsathoggua | 4 | Right | Discovering the water and/or oxygen traces in some exoplanets |
11086 | 2012-12-01 | 2013-03-16 | tsathoggua | 1 | Withdrawn | Vill be estabilshed, that Jasir Arafat is poisoned by Po210 |
11396 | 2012-12-04 | 2012-12-05 | Cy Fleming | 2 | Wrong | I will study for final exams for >5 hours today |
11521 | 2012-12-05 | 2013-01-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | >=1 Longecity users will claim my (swapped) sets of iodine eye photographs will reveal a lightening trend of my iris. |
11708 | 2012-12-06 | 2012-12-07 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: The Denver Broncos will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 of the 2012 season |
11719 | 2012-12-06 | 2013-12-31 | ChristianKl | 4 | Wrong | The Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013. |
11720 | 2012-12-06 | 2015-12-31 | ChristianKl | 16 | Wrong | The Euro won’t be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2015 |
11936 | 2012-12-09 | 2013-02-01 | cyblifeformnode | 2 | Wrong | Standard & Poor's Ratings Services will change the unsolicited long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of France (from 'AA+') or on the Federal Republic of Germany (from 'AAA') till February 1st. |
11955 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11956 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: SF 49ers will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11957 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11958 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Detroit Lions in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11959 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11960 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11961 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11962 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: NY Giants will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11963 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11964 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: New England Patriots will beat Texas Texans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11965 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11966 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11967 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat the NY Jets in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
11968 | 2012-12-09 | 2012-12-12 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season |
12038 | 2012-12-10 | 2013-03-01 | zaarcis | 1 | Wrong | HPMoR lidz 2013. gada 1. martam netiks turpinats |
12060 | 2012-12-11 | 2016-11-09 | Cy Fleming | 4 | Wrong | Intrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election. |
12061 | 2012-12-11 | 2012-12-16 | Christopher | 1 | Wrong | I will be accepted to MIT EA. |
12344 | 2012-12-13 | 2012-12-14 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: The Cinncinati Bengals will beat the Philadephia Eagles in Week 15 of the 2012 season |
12345 | 2012-12-13 | 2015-06-30 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Fed conditions of employment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% will hit before June 30, 2015 |
12346 | 2012-12-13 | 2015-06-30 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Fed will keep rates low before June 30, 2015 even if unemployment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% in the meantime. |
12600 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Miami Dolphins will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 of 2012 Season |
12601 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12602 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 of 2012 Season |
12603 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Chicago Bears in Week 15 of 2012 Season |
12604 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: New Orleans Saints will beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12605 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12606 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: San Francisco 49ers will beat the New England Patriots in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12607 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12608 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: NY Giants will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12609 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Denver Broncos in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12610 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12611 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: San Diego Chargers will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12612 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12613 | 2012-12-16 | 2012-12-20 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: NY Jets will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 of the 2012 Season |
12636 | 2012-12-16 | 2013-12-16 | ygert | 1 | Right | The Magic: the Gathering block code named "Friends", "Romans" and "Countrymen" will be a Large-Small-Small block. |
12772 | 2012-12-17 | 2012-12-18 | gwern | 1 | Right | LSD microdosing experiment: pair 8: placebo then active? |
12773 | 2012-12-17 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Glass Delayed in 2013 After Developers Puzzle Over Its Reason For Being |
12783 | 2012-12-17 | 2013-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Graduates to ISP in 2013 |
12843 | 2012-12-18 | 2015-01-01 | ygert | 12 | Right | In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. |
13351 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13352 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13353 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13354 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13355 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13356 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Washington Redskins will beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13357 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13358 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13359 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Miami Dolphins will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13360 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: San Diego Chargers will beat the NYJets in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13361 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13362 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the SF 49ers in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13363 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13364 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 of the 2012 Season |
13365 | 2012-12-22 | 2012-12-25 | RandomNFL | 1 | Wrong | NFL: NY Giants will beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 of 2012 Season |
13870 | 2012-12-28 | 2013-12-31 | Tuxedage | 10 | Right | I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. |
13927 | 2012-12-29 | 2015-12-28 | NancyLebovitz | 8 | Wrong | There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. |
14085 | 2012-12-31 | 2020-01-01 | gwern | 14 | Right | No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. |
14088 | 2012-12-31 | 2030-01-01 | gwern | 12 | | No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. |
14143 | 2013-01-01 | 2015-12-31 | Tuxedage | 6 | Right | No recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years. |
14161 | 2013-01-01 | 2014-01-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will perform 1 set of 25 standard pull-ups and 1 set of 250 bodyweight squats on the same day before 2014. |
14162 | 2013-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will take the Spanish Language CLEP exam and will achieve a score of 55 or higher before 2014. |
14163 | 2013-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | During a single 24 hour period, I will write 48 hiragana and 48 katakana from memory with an error rate of 0% before 2014. |
14164 | 2013-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | During a single 24 hour period, I will write 2,200 kanji from memory with an error rate of 10% or less before 2014. |
14165 | 2013-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will complete every single exercise in Harry Gensler's Introduction to Logic: Second Edition with an error rate of 20% or less before 2014. |
14166 | 2013-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will achieve all 7 of my New Year's resolutions before 2014. |
14201 | 2013-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | dakyne | 6 | Wrong | The spot price of silver will be $50/troy oz. or more at some point before December 31, 2013. |
14231 | 2013-01-02 | 2013-03-01 | simplicio | 5 | Right | Homicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan) |
14232 | 2013-01-02 | 2014-01-01 | simplicio | 3 | Wrong | I will have $10 000 of play money on PokerStars by the end of 2013 ($569 as of Jan 2). |
14260 | 2013-01-03 | 2013-06-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | Wrong | Fight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 or more of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt |
14353 | 2013-01-05 | 2013-01-09 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Indianapolis Colts in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season |
14354 | 2013-01-05 | 2013-01-09 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Cinncinati Bengals in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season |
14355 | 2013-01-05 | 2013-01-09 | RandomNFL | 1 | Right | NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Washington Redskins in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season |
14427 | 2013-01-07 | 2017-12-31 | ChristianKl | 3 | | The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality. |
14432 | 2013-01-07 | 2013-01-07 | Nic_Smith | 2 | Right | Encoding done before 11:30 |
14433 | 2013-01-07 | 2013-01-08 | Nic_Smith | 2 | Right | Encoding done before midnight |
14519 | 2013-01-09 | 2013-10-01 | dhoe | 2 | Wrong | DE: The FDP will get more than 5% of the vote at the Bundestag elections '13 |
14562 | 2013-01-10 | 2013-02-24 | Peter Hurford | 9 | Right | Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. |
14563 | 2013-01-10 | 2013-02-24 | Peter Hurford | 6 | Wrong | Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. |
14564 | 2013-01-10 | 2014-01-01 | DrDiaphanous | 24 | Wrong | Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 |
14565 | 2013-01-10 | 2016-12-01 | DrDiaphanous | 25 | Wrong | Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 |
14599 | 2013-01-11 | 2013-03-11 | ashrewdmint | 1 | Right | My 23andme results will reveal I am 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher |
14600 | 2013-01-11 | 2032-11-10 | gwern | 9 | | The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. |
14601 | 2013-01-11 | 2032-11-10 | gwern | 7 | | The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. |
14602 | 2013-01-11 | 2032-11-10 | gwern | 7 | | The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. |
14628 | 2013-01-13 | 2016-01-01 | ygert | 20 | Wrong | Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. |
14651 | 2013-01-13 | 2013-12-30 | Tuxedage | 5 | Right | By the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000. |
14652 | 2013-01-13 | 2020-12-01 | Tuxedage | 23 | | By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. |
14653 | 2013-01-13 | 2013-01-21 | Tuxedage | 2 | Wrong | I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. |
14701 | 2013-01-16 | 2013-02-15 | ygert | 4 | Right | After watching a few episodes of My Little Pony, I will decide I like it and continue watching the show. |
14746 | 2013-01-17 | 2013-05-01 | dhoe | 1 | Wrong | NL: There will be an Elfstedentocht this winter |
14776 | 2013-01-18 | 2013-11-30 | simplicio | 3 | Right | Liberal/National Coalition to win Australian Federal Election 2013. |
14777 | 2013-01-18 | 2013-04-14 | simplicio | 1 | Right | Justin Trudeau to win Liberal Party of Canada leadership race. |
14778 | 2013-01-18 | 2020-02-01 | simplicio | 4 | | EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. |
14779 | 2013-01-18 | 2022-02-01 | simplicio | 7 | | Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. |
14780 | 2013-01-18 | 2013-01-19 | ashrewdmint | 2 | Right | I will sleep better tonight after bright light exposure during the day |
14781 | 2013-01-18 | 2016-02-01 | simplicio | 4 | Wrong | Conditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012. |
14782 | 2013-01-18 | 2017-02-01 | simplicio | 3 | Wrong | Japan to obtain >30% of its power from nuclear in 2016. |
14783 | 2013-01-18 | 2015-12-01 | simplicio | 2 | Right | World HDI for 2014 to be 0.690 or higher (0.682 in 2011). |
14785 | 2013-01-19 | 2025-01-01 | Leo | 6 | | Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_ |
14812 | 2013-01-19 | 2013-03-19 | ashrewdmint | 1 | Wrong | Sarah's 23andme results will show that she is 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher |
14813 | 2013-01-19 | 2013-01-20 | ashrewdmint | 2 | Wrong | Due to bright light and dark-red light cycling, tomorrow I will wake up like I did today: naturally and without sleeping in. |
14933 | 2013-01-22 | 2013-07-01 | Pfft | 1 | Wrong | The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in Hollingsworth v. Perry (the Prop 8 case) |
14968 | 2013-01-24 | 2015-01-01 | dusk | 7 | Wrong | Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 |
14969 | 2013-01-24 | 2015-01-01 | dusk | 11 | Wrong | Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. |
14970 | 2013-01-24 | 2013-03-01 | dusk | 1 | Right | Windows Phone 7.8 will roll out over-the-air to some consumer devices by the end of February 2013. |
14971 | 2013-01-24 | 2015-01-01 | dusk | 1 | | A digital 4K video camera will be available for under US$4000 by the end of 2013. |
14972 | 2013-01-24 | 2013-03-20 | ygert | 5 | Right | Israeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. |
14973 | 2013-01-24 | 2013-03-20 | ygert | 3 | Right | Israeli Elections: The new government's coalition will include Yesh Atid. |
14974 | 2013-01-24 | 2013-03-20 | ygert | 3 | Right | Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Labor. |
14975 | 2013-01-24 | 2013-03-20 | ygert | 3 | Right | Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include HaBayit HaYehudi. |
14976 | 2013-01-24 | 2013-03-20 | ygert | 4 | Wrong | Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas. |
14999 | 2013-01-24 | 2014-01-01 | simplicio | 11 | Right | Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. |
15009 | 2013-01-25 | 2014-05-12 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | My friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of the Spring 2014 semester (his estimated time of graduation) |
15035 | 2013-01-27 | 2013-04-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | My Analysis raw mark will be between 34 and 44 marks out of 50 |
15036 | 2013-01-27 | 2013-04-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | My Probability & Stats raw percentage will be strictly over 89.5% |
15085 | 2013-01-28 | 2013-02-04 | beo_shaffer | 4 | Wrong | Yvain will mention the hand gesture the awkward turtle in http://squid314.livejournal.com/ within the next 7 days |
15353 | 2013-02-06 | 2013-05-06 | papermachine | 7 | Right | EY posts something on "The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics" within three months. |
15354 | 2013-02-06 | 2013-05-06 | papermachine | 10 | Right | EY posts something on "The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI" within three months |
15384 | 2013-02-06 | 2020-12-31 | najdorf | 2 | | I will get a list article published at Cracked.com by 31/12/2020. |
15407 | 2013-02-07 | 2014-12-01 | Peter Hurford | 12 | Right | The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections |
15574 | 2013-02-11 | 2028-02-11 | halfwaytogallifrey | 2 | | Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage. |
15575 | 2013-02-11 | 2013-03-16 | halfwaytogallifrey | 1 | Wrong | There will be a new book review on FraVerus.com by the end of March 15th. |
15576 | 2013-02-11 | 2013-04-30 | halfwaytogallifrey | 4 | Wrong | Marc Ouellet will be the next Pope. |
15605 | 2013-02-11 | 2013-05-11 | ashrewdmint | 29 | Wrong | The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist |
15606 | 2013-02-11 | 2014-02-11 | stephenh | 18 | Wrong | Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. |
15681 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 3 | Wrong | Qiaochu will attend Story Night II |
15682 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | I will attend Story Night II |
15683 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Jocelyn B will attend Story Night II |
15684 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Scott R will attend Story Night II |
15685 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 3 | Wrong | Val will attend Story Night II |
15686 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 3 | Wrong | Alli (Val's wife) will attend Story Night II |
15687 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Julia G will attend Story Night II |
15688 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 2 | Right | Sasha W will attend Story Night II |
15689 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Alex D will attend Story Night II |
15690 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Allison K will attend Story Night II |
15691 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 2 | Right | Jonathan P will attend Story Night II |
15692 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Ambrose F will attend Story Night II |
15693 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 2 | Wrong | Nora N will attend Story Night II |
15694 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 2 | Right | Justin C will attend Story Night II |
15695 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 2 | Right | David Garvey will attend Story Night II |
15696 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Alexei A will attend Story Night II |
15697 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Michael C will attend Story Night II |
15698 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Kimberley S will attend Story Night II |
15699 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Tom C will attend Story Night II |
15700 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Dan B will attend Story Night II |
15701 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Brian F will attend Story Night II |
15702 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-05-17 | tormey | 3 | Wrong | Toby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US). |
15703 | 2013-02-13 | 2013-05-17 | tormey | 3 | Wrong | On The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show. |
15734 | 2013-02-13 | 2016-01-01 | simplicio | 30 | Wrong | USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. |
15796 | 2013-02-15 | 2014-01-01 | simplicio | 9 | Wrong | Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. |
15875 | 2013-02-17 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Bill K will attend Story Night II |
15876 | 2013-02-17 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Rebecca G will attend Story Night II |
15877 | 2013-02-17 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | SE will attend Story Night II |
15878 | 2013-02-17 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Wrong | Matt V will attend story night II |
15879 | 2013-02-17 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Alan will attend Story Night II |
15880 | 2013-02-17 | 2013-02-18 | yaliceme | 1 | Right | Ludwig S will attend Story Night II |
15947 | 2013-02-20 | 2017-01-01 | simplicio | 9 | Wrong | Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). |
15948 | 2013-02-20 | 2018-01-01 | simplicio | 11 | Wrong | "Glasses" computing devices (peripheral or standalone - example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. |
15949 | 2013-02-20 | 2015-01-01 | simplicio | 6 | Wrong | US minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015. |
16022 | 2013-02-22 | 2013-02-24 | Peter Hurford | 2 | Wrong | Tommy Lee Jones will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor |
16023 | 2013-02-22 | 2013-02-24 | Peter Hurford | 3 | Right | Daniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor |
16024 | 2013-02-22 | 2014-11-05 | Peter Hurford | 8 | Wrong | The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections |
16070 | 2013-02-24 | 2025-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. |
16071 | 2013-02-24 | 2014-01-16 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Wrong | By January 1, 2014 I will have published at least one paper that involves Artin representations where I am the sole author. |
16142 | 2013-02-25 | 2015-03-31 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs |
16143 | 2013-02-26 | 2013-07-31 | ledzep6551 | 10 | Wrong | feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails |
16156 | 2013-02-27 | 2014-01-01 | Digglerson | 7 | Wrong | Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013. |
16166 | 2013-02-27 | 2013-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | XiXi: 2 |
16167 | 2013-02-27 | 2013-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Right | XiXi: 3 |
16168 | 2013-02-27 | 2013-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | XiXi: 4 |
16169 | 2013-02-27 | 2013-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | XiXi: 5 |
16170 | 2013-02-27 | 2013-02-27 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | XiXi: 6 |
16231 | 2013-03-01 | 2013-03-02 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | Today's optional class will be worth attending |
16232 | 2013-03-01 | 2013-03-02 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | The professor will offer some sort of reward to the students who show up at today's optional class |
16284 | 2013-03-04 | 2013-04-03 | tedks | 1 | Right | The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $40 in the next 30 days. |
16296 | 2013-03-05 | 2013-04-04 | tedks | 4 | Right | The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $45.00 in the next 30 days. |
16342 | 2013-03-06 | 2013-01-01 | daffodilian | 1 | Right | Neither Highlight nor Circle will get big (i.e. become a big public company or exit for > $100m) |
16529 | 2013-03-12 | 2013-03-16 | Roxolan | 2 | Wrong | There will be five or six newcomers at the next Brussels LessWrong meetup. |
16569 | 2013-03-14 | 2015-03-14 | nick | 1 | Right | My PredictionBook calibration will be obviously better by my 400th prediction than it is now at 208 predictions. |
16810 | 2013-03-21 | 2013-04-20 | tedks | 3 | Right | The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $75 within the next 30 days. |
16830 | 2013-03-22 | 2017-01-01 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 |
16833 | 2013-03-22 | 2013-04-07 | kilobug | 3 | Right | Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.25 millions stretch goal |
16834 | 2013-03-22 | 2013-04-07 | kilobug | 1 | Right | Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.5 millions stretch goal |
16856 | 2013-03-23 | 2023-01-01 | RandomThinker | 7 | | One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 |
16889 | 2013-03-25 | 2013-07-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Withdrawn | Conditioned on the Miami Heat getting the all-time consecutive wins record, the Miami Heat won't win the NBA championship in 2013 |
16890 | 2013-03-25 | 2023-04-01 | Digglerson | 5 | | By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. |
16891 | 2013-03-25 | 2013-03-26 | komponisto | 2 | Wrong | Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm acquittal of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher. |
16892 | 2013-03-25 | 2013-03-26 | komponisto | 1 | Withdrawn | Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm conviction of Amanda Knox on charge of calumny against Patrick Lumumba. |
16893 | 2013-03-25 | 2014-04-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls a year from now (until 4/1/2014) |
16894 | 2013-03-25 | 2013-09-01 | ygert | 7 | Right | The Magic: the Gathering block "Theros" will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed. |
16989 | 2013-03-27 | 2014-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 12 | Wrong | Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. |
17011 | 2013-03-27 | 2013-07-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls three months from now (until 7/1/2013) |
17095 | 2013-03-31 | 2014-01-01 | itaibn | 5 | Right | xkcd "Time" will show its last unique frame before 2014 |
17096 | 2013-03-31 | 2018-03-31 | zpinter | 12 | Wrong | There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. |
17107 | 2013-03-31 | 2013-05-15 | FestiveBleak | 3 | Wrong | Yomi will be released for iOS by May 15th |
17185 | 2013-04-03 | 2014-01-01 | ashrewdmint | 10 | Right | BTC hits $200 within the year |
17186 | 2013-04-03 | 2014-01-01 | ashrewdmint | 23 | Right | BTC hits $500 within the year |
17187 | 2013-04-03 | 2014-01-01 | ashrewdmint | 20 | Right | BTC hits $1000 within the year |
17249 | 2013-04-04 | 2038-04-04 | RobertLumley | 8 | | In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state. |
17250 | 2013-04-04 | 2013-05-01 | hedges | 5 | Wrong | Facebook stock will go below 20 this month. |
17251 | 2013-04-04 | 2014-01-01 | hedges | 14 | Wrong | A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. |
17291 | 2013-04-06 | 2014-01-01 | RandomThinker | 4 | Right | Facebook front page will have less than 10% market share of Android phones by Jan 1 2014 |
17332 | 2013-04-08 | 2014-01-01 | tkosiba | 5 | Wrong | Gold price will be up this year |
17339 | 2013-04-08 | 2013-04-27 | Peter Hurford | 4 | Wrong | The upcoming Magic: The Gathering set, Dragon's Maze, will contain at least one legendary creature with precisely four colors. |
17371 | 2013-04-10 | 2016-01-01 | RandomThinker | 2 | | Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016 |
17440 | 2013-04-12 | 2013-06-12 | Peter Hurford | 8 | Wrong | Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). |
17463 | 2013-04-13 | 2015-01-16 | Laurent Bossavit | 2 | Wrong | By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the supposed results of the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects were in fact the result of error, distorsion or fraud rather than conclusions from an actual survey |
17505 | 2013-04-15 | 2016-11-15 | Osuniev | 22 | Wrong | The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. |
17594 | 2013-04-17 | 2013-04-16 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | H&H will win the DCA PAES. |
17610 | 2013-04-17 | 2013-05-22 | gwern | 9 | Wrong | Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model |
17611 | 2013-04-18 | 2015-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 9 | Right | At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 |
17668 | 2013-04-20 | 2013-05-25 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | WSJ: Psy's new video Gentleman could break 1 billion views in a month |
17677 | 2013-04-21 | 2013-04-26 | mrenouf | 3 | Right | The BTCUSD rate will go below $100 within the next 5 days. |
17752 | 2013-04-25 | 2030-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 |
17755 | 2013-04-25 | 2020-01-01 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | Tim Cook departs as CEO of Apple before Steve Ballmer departs as CEO of Microsoft |
17756 | 2013-04-25 | 2020-01-01 | RandomThinker | 12 | Wrong | Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government |
17801 | 2013-04-26 | 2013-04-26 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | Hung Tran is elected Vice President of Denison Campus Governance Association. |
17802 | 2013-04-26 | 2013-04-26 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | Ana Morales is elected President of Denison Campus Governance Association. |
17803 | 2013-04-26 | 2113-04-26 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | | Life discovered on Jupiter in next 100 years. |
17804 | 2013-04-26 | 2063-04-26 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | | Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years. |
17811 | 2013-04-27 | 2013-11-16 | andrevan | 4 | Wrong | Anthony Weiner will be elected mayor of New York City. |
17876 | 2013-05-01 | 2013-12-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Right | The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013 |
17877 | 2013-05-01 | 2013-09-01 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | I will have my driver's license by 1 September, 2013. |
17882 | 2013-05-01 | 2020-01-01 | ashrewdmint | 7 | Wrong | Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity |
17883 | 2013-05-01 | 2020-01-01 | ashrewdmint | 19 | Wrong | Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves "Satoshi Nakomoto" and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin |
17888 | 2013-05-02 | 2013-09-05 | RandomThinker | 5 | Wrong | An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season |
17898 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 5 | Right | Google Alerts will survive 5 more years |
17899 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 7 | Right | Google Analytics will survive 5 more years |
17900 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 8 | Right | Google Blogger will survive 5 more years |
17901 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 2 | Right | Google Calendar will survive 5 more years |
17902 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 9 | Right | Google Docs will survive 5 more years |
17903 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 3 | Right | Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years |
17904 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 11 | Right | Google Gmail will survive 5 more years |
17905 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 13 | Right | Google+ will survive 5 more years |
17906 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 7 | Right | Google Scholar will survive 5 more years |
17907 | 2013-05-02 | 2018-05-02 | gwern | 7 | Right | Google Voice will survive 5 more years |
17912 | 2013-05-03 | 2018-05-03 | gwern | 17 | Right | Google Search will survive 5 years |
17913 | 2013-05-03 | 2018-05-03 | gwern | 10 | Right | Google Translate will survive 5 years |
17914 | 2013-05-03 | 2013-05-17 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | Rhode Island will legalize gay marriage within two weeks |
17915 | 2013-05-03 | 2018-05-02 | RandomThinker | 4 | Right | Google Chrome OS will survive 5 years |
17916 | 2013-05-03 | 2018-05-02 | RandomThinker | 27 | Right | Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years |
17917 | 2013-05-03 | 2018-05-02 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | Larry Page will survive 5 years as Google CEO |
17918 | 2013-05-03 | 2025-01-01 | RandomThinker | 3 | | Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business |
18050 | 2013-05-08 | 2015-01-01 | RandomThinker | 4 | Wrong | Kickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015 |
18051 | 2013-05-08 | 2025-01-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | The press will report a DYI synthetic organism product is banned, before a 3D printed gun product is banned |
18064 | 2013-05-09 | 2023-05-09 | Isaac | 1 | | I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years |
18065 | 2013-05-09 | 2017-05-16 | Isaac | 1 | Right | I will graduate from Washington University in St Louis with a degree in Economics in 2017 |
18066 | 2013-05-09 | 2017-05-09 | Isaac | 1 | Wrong | I will graduate with a degree in any field other than economics from Washington University in St Louis |
18091 | 2013-05-10 | 2014-01-01 | DrDiaphanous | 2 | Wrong | In HPMOR, Snape is responsible for framing Hermione. |
18092 | 2013-05-10 | 2014-01-01 | DrDiaphanous | 5 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Dumbledore is responsible for framing Hermione. |
18093 | 2013-05-10 | 2014-01-01 | DrDiaphanous | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione. |
18094 | 2013-05-10 | 2014-01-01 | DrDiaphanous | 6 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Hermione alone is responsible for the attempted murder. |
18095 | 2013-05-10 | 2014-01-01 | DrDiaphanous | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. |
18156 | 2013-05-13 | 2013-06-01 | itaibn | 3 | Wrong | OOTS: Comic #887 is Elan's prophesized happy ending. |
18166 | 2013-05-14 | 2050-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 |
18167 | 2013-05-14 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | Twin prime conjecture solved by 2020 |
18168 | 2013-05-14 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Right | There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 |
18176 | 2013-05-15 | 2020-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | The Stig is Sabine Schmitz and this will be reported by a mainstream newspaper before 2020. |
18228 | 2013-05-19 | 2018-05-19 | NancyLebovitz | 38 | Right | Google will survive for five more years |
18229 | 2013-05-19 | 2028-05-19 | NancyLebovitz | 19 | | Google will survive for 15 more years |
18239 | 2013-05-20 | 2050-01-16 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 |
18281 | 2013-05-21 | 2100-06-01 | Tuxedage | 1 | | We will never have a colony on mars larger than 25 people without launch costs going below $250/kg |
18475 | 2013-05-26 | 2014-01-01 | atroche | 4 | Wrong | Clojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013. |
18476 | 2013-05-26 | 2017-07-06 | atroche | 1 | Wrong | In the AFL, the Hawks will defeat Geelong in round 15. |
18501 | 2013-05-28 | 2015-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | Rob Ford will not the mayor of Toronto by January 1, 2015 |
18653 | 2013-06-02 | 2013-04-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | CP does not comment on 'literally' in Double Standards 'cut' line explanation. |
18657 | 2013-06-03 | 2013-06-03 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | At least one person in our group will get lost on the subway (get off on the wrong stop or fail to get on) during an official portion of our trip (a part paid for by the trip). |
18658 | 2013-06-03 | 2013-07-11 | Peter Hurford | 2 | Right | I will go to England this summer |
18729 | 2013-06-05 | 2063-06-05 | hedges | 1 | Withdrawn | The world will be a better place in 50 years. |
18860 | 2013-06-07 | 2014-06-07 | Tenoke | 4 | Right | 1 USD will be worth more than 120 ripples. (that is the price of ripples will drop to 120 or more per $1) by/on the 7th of June 2014. Making this to remind myself of a bet for 50 gbp with a friend. |
19317 | 2013-06-16 | 2013-06-21 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | My final grade in Math108 will be a B+. |
19318 | 2013-06-16 | 2013-06-21 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | My final grade in Spanish will be an A. |
19319 | 2013-06-16 | 2013-06-21 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | My final grade in THINK25 will be an A. |
19463 | 2013-06-20 | 2013-06-29 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | Zhang's bound reduced to 50,000 by June 29,2013 |
19766 | 2013-06-27 | 2013-07-27 | ashrewdmint | 3 | Wrong | I will gain 2 lbs (weight >= 120 lbs) in one month. |
19861 | 2013-06-30 | 2015-06-30 | gwern | 17 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost |
19862 | 2013-06-30 | 2015-06-30 | gwern | 23 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape |
19871 | 2013-06-30 | 2013-07-02 | Robert | 1 | Wrong | HP MoR: During the current crisis, after (in real time) end of chapter 89, no potentially dangerous person or creature will be loose and alone anywhere in Hogwarts where a student would normally be. |
19885 | 2013-07-01 | 2015-07-01 | bt_uytya | 3 | Wrong | HP MOR: Events of ch 89 aren't what they appear to be. |
19907 | 2013-07-01 | 2013-12-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Right | Morsi will be out of power by December 1, 2013 |
19927 | 2013-07-02 | 2014-01-16 | Kurosymph | 7 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. |
19928 | 2013-07-02 | 2014-02-01 | ygert | 14 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. |
19948 | 2013-07-02 | 2013-09-02 | jaibot | 8 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Minerva McGonagall said "Not your fault" in Chapter 89. |
19954 | 2013-07-03 | 2013-07-22 | jaibot | 1 | Wrong | Powershame will release an alpha for Linux by July 22, 2013 |
20053 | 2013-07-06 | 2014-07-06 | Benja | 21 | Right | _HP MoR_: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess |
20062 | 2013-07-06 | 2013-07-06 | High_Fiber_Twigs | 1 | Wrong | My lungs will not be hurting. |
20157 | 2013-07-08 | 2014-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 13,000 comment karma on Reddit. |
20158 | 2013-07-08 | 2014-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 15,000 comment karma on Reddit. |
20159 | 2013-07-08 | 2014-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 100 link karma on Reddit. |
20160 | 2013-07-08 | 2014-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 20,000 comment karma on Reddit. |
20161 | 2013-07-08 | 2014-06-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | I will take at least 45 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. |
20162 | 2013-07-08 | 2014-06-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | I will take at least 50 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. |
20163 | 2013-07-08 | 2013-09-24 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | My current programming project will be at least 10,000 lines of code (including comments and whitespace) by the end of summer. |
20329 | 2013-07-12 | 2013-08-12 | Roxolan | 3 | Right | On August 12, "Chandra, Pyromaster" will be sold at 9.95$ or more on starcitygames.com |
20330 | 2013-07-12 | 2013-08-12 | Roxolan | 2 | Wrong | On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 19.95$ or more on starcitygames.com |
20331 | 2013-07-12 | 2023-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 8 | | Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. |
20332 | 2013-07-13 | 2016-01-05 | 75th | 9 | Wrong | _HP MoR:_ Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her. |
20366 | 2013-07-13 | 2013-09-22 | jasticE | 3 | Wrong | Dexter Season 8: Harrison shows development of a "dark passenger"; Debra takes the role of his guide, as Harry was for Dexter. |
20367 | 2013-07-13 | 2013-09-22 | jasticE | 2 | Wrong | Dexter Season 8: Harrison draws pictures involving murder or dead people. |
20368 | 2013-07-13 | 2013-09-22 | jasticE | 3 | Wrong | Dexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail |
20369 | 2013-07-13 | 2018-07-14 | halfwit | 10 | Wrong | Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a "statistician columnist" by a mainstream blog; "mainstream blog" is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. |
20374 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-07-14 | Cakoluchiam | 1 | Right | There is no PredictionBook app nor official quicklink for a mobile version of PredictionBook as of July 13th, 2013. |
20375 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-07-14 | Cakoluchiam | 1 | Wrong | There is an mobile version of the PredictionBook website as of July 13th, 2013 |
20380 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-09-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Right | I will get a C or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. |
20381 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-09-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | I will get a B or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. |
20382 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-09-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | I will get a A or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. |
20404 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-07-14 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor existential risk as their top cause. |
20405 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-07-14 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor animal welfare as their top cause. |
20406 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-07-14 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor poverty. |
20407 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-07-14 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor existential risk. |
20408 | 2013-07-14 | 2013-07-14 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor animal welfare. |
20415 | 2013-07-15 | 2013-09-21 | Mathias Zaman | 1 | Right | Minotaurs will be a tribe in Theros. |
20448 | 2013-07-15 | 2013-07-23 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | Within one week, I will have one month membership to a local gym in the UK. |
20449 | 2013-07-15 | 2013-07-23 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | In one week, I will own or borrow a bike. |
20450 | 2013-07-16 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | At some point before 2014, 1% or more of my investment portfolio will be in Bitcoin. |
20470 | 2013-07-16 | 2013-08-13 | phreeza | 3 | Right | Elon Musk's Hyperloop will consist of vehicles travelling in a tunnel or enclosed tube |
20564 | 2013-07-18 | 2015-07-18 | Tenoke | 12 | Wrong | Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. |
20591 | 2013-07-19 | 2014-01-01 | azax1 | 1 | Wrong | I will have read at least 30 books during 2013. |
20592 | 2013-07-19 | 2014-01-01 | azax1 | 1 | Wrong | I will have read at least 35 books during 2013. |
20596 | 2013-07-19 | 2014-01-01 | azax1 | 1 | Right | My favorite (fiction) book will be "Earth Abides" on January 1, 2014. |
20597 | 2013-07-19 | 2015-01-01 | azax1 | 1 | Right | My favorite (fiction) book will be "Earth Abides" on January 1, 2015. |
20598 | 2013-07-19 | 2014-01-01 | azax1 | 1 | Wrong | I will have read at least 40 books during 2013. |
20626 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2013: "Overloaded record fields for GHC" |
20627 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GSoC 2013: "interactive-diagrams and a paste site with the ability for dynamic rendering of diagrams" |
20628 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Withdrawn | GSoC 2013: "Haddock extension for Pandoc compatibility" |
20629 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 2 | Right | GSoC 2013: "Port Charts to use Diagrams" |
20630 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 3 | Right | GSoC 2013: "Better record command for darcs" |
20631 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2013: "Communicating with mobile devices" |
20632 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2013: "Improve the feedback of the cabal-install dependency solver" |
20633 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2013: "Parallelise `cabal build`" |
20634 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Right | GSoC 2013: "Extending GHC to support building modules in parallel" |
20635 | 2013-07-20 | 2014-01-01 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | GSoC 2013: "Haskell Qt Binding Generator" |
20650 | 2013-07-20 | 2013-07-27 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | Nick will come over for Fun Time at least once within the next seven days. |
20651 | 2013-07-20 | 2013-12-31 | Peter Hurford | 3 | Right | Joey and Xio's study will find further evidence in favor of vegetarianism advocacy |
20682 | 2013-07-22 | 2014-01-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 1 | Right | I will complete a total of at least 24 blog posts in 2013. |
20704 | 2013-07-22 | 2013-11-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 2 | Wrong | At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Nov 1, 2013. |
20710 | 2013-07-22 | 2013-10-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 1 | Right | At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. |
20711 | 2013-07-22 | 2013-09-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 3 | Wrong | At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Sept 1, 2013. |
20712 | 2013-07-22 | 2014-08-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 1 | Wrong | At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. |
20713 | 2013-07-22 | 2014-01-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 3 | Wrong | At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. |
20714 | 2013-07-22 | 2013-10-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 1 | Wrong | At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. |
20715 | 2013-07-22 | 2014-08-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 1 | Wrong | At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. |
20716 | 2013-07-22 | 2014-07-22 | Malcolm Ocean | 2 | Wrong | There will be a university/college-affiliated study on polyphasic sleep that begins within a year. |
20720 | 2013-07-23 | 2013-07-24 | PrinceMachiavelli | 1 | Withdrawn | Colorado Springs city council will vote in favor of a moratorium on the issue of Amendment 64 |
20745 | 2013-07-25 | 2013-08-21 | ygert | 22 | Right | HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. |
20746 | 2013-07-25 | 2013-08-21 | ygert | 14 | Wrong | HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. |
20747 | 2013-07-25 | 2014-07-25 | ygert | 14 | Wrong | HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. |
20772 | 2013-07-26 | 2028-12-31 | ArisKatsaris | 2 | | Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028. |
20783 | 2013-07-28 | 2018-07-01 | ygert | 14 | | HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the "tear apart the very stars in heaven" phrase in the prophecy was referring to. |
20784 | 2013-07-28 | 2013-09-01 | jasticE | 5 | Right | SMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013 |
20785 | 2013-07-28 | 2014-01-01 | shlevy | 1 | Right | Ozy will get back together with internet feminism by 2014 |
20822 | 2013-07-31 | 2013-11-11 | thostian | 2 | Wrong | Labour's current civil war (progress/unite) will cause the formation of a successful and large second party. |
20823 | 2013-07-31 | 2013-08-20 | thostian | 5 | Right | I will get into my first choice for university |
20824 | 2013-07-31 | 2013-08-02 | thostian | 1 | Wrong | I will be recovered from my illness within two days |
20825 | 2013-07-31 | 2013-08-02 | thostian | 2 | Right | My blood test will show nothing of great import |
20826 | 2013-07-31 | 2013-08-14 | thostian | 2 | Right | I will finish my books within the week |
20827 | 2013-07-31 | 2014-07-31 | thostian | 3 | Wrong | Liam Fox will return to a Cabinet post in the next reshuffle |
20828 | 2013-07-31 | 2014-01-01 | sdr | 5 | Wrong | By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. |
20832 | 2013-08-01 | 2032-11-02 | Messias | 6 | | Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. |
20846 | 2013-08-03 | 2016-11-06 | tinatoys | 21 | Wrong | Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes... all the "hot issues" for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. |
20851 | 2013-08-03 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | Shenmue HD will be released before 2014. |
20866 | 2013-08-05 | 2013-09-04 | Lemmih | 2 | Right | JA Bayes will spend more than 6 hours using FL Studio over the next 30 days. |
20899 | 2013-08-08 | 2014-03-15 | mavant | 1 | Right | I will be admitted to at least one medical school for the class of 2014. |
20900 | 2013-08-08 | 2013-09-01 | mavant | 1 | Wrong | I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August. |
20901 | 2013-08-08 | 2013-10-01 | mavant | 1 | Wrong | I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of September. |
20902 | 2013-08-09 | 2018-09-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | The Elysium (2013) will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 90m), but will be a cult favorite 5 years from now |
20906 | 2013-08-09 | 2015-01-01 | mavant | 2 | Wrong | The Litecoin-Bitcoin exchange rate will reach 5:1 L:B or greater by 2015. |
20907 | 2013-08-09 | 2013-08-10 | Carnegie | 1 | Right | I will go on a time-wasting site in the next 8 hours |
20947 | 2013-08-12 | 2050-01-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 4 | | Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. |
20948 | 2013-08-12 | 2030-01-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 9 | | Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. |
20952 | 2013-08-12 | 2013-08-19 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will get an A or better on my CSE 110 final tomorrow. |
20953 | 2013-08-13 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will complete all Duolingo lessons for Spanish before 2014. |
20954 | 2013-08-13 | 2015-07-01 | 75th | 10 | Wrong | _HP MoR:_ We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. |
20986 | 2013-08-15 | 2100-01-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 5 | | When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it. |
20987 | 2013-08-15 | 2100-01-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 3 | | One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water |
20988 | 2013-08-15 | 2100-01-01 | Malcolm Ocean | 3 | | If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered. |
21043 | 2013-08-22 | 2034-06-01 | Omid | 11 | | In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. |
21044 | 2013-08-22 | 2033-01-01 | Omid | 12 | | The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. |
21071 | 2013-08-26 | 2013-09-23 | ericlefevre | 2 | Right | La Story Robustesse des tests nous a permis de rendre les tests de plateforme et de contrat vraiment plus stables. |
21082 | 2013-08-26 | 2028-08-26 | Ben Doherty | 18 | | It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads |
21167 | 2013-09-05 | 2015-01-01 | Osuniev | 6 | | Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head. |
21168 | 2013-09-05 | 2015-01-01 | Osuniev | 4 | | Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads. |
21172 | 2013-09-05 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will get an A or better in CSE 205: Object-Oriented Programming and Data Structures. |
21190 | 2013-09-07 | 2014-12-31 | Michal | 1 | | E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2014 |
21213 | 2013-09-07 | 2025-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | | I will publically convert to Buddhism before 2025. |
21214 | 2013-09-07 | 2025-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | | I will publically convert to Islam before 2025. |
21215 | 2013-09-07 | 2013-12-16 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | I will drop at least 1 class this quarter. |
21216 | 2013-09-07 | 2014-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Withdrawn | I will make an A- or higher in CS 110: Principles of Computer Systems. |
21217 | 2013-09-07 | 2014-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Withdrawn | I will make a B- or higher in CS 110: Principles of Computer Systems. |
21218 | 2013-09-07 | 2014-07-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | I will go to at least 1 frat party during the 2013/14 school year. |
21232 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Wrong | The Wife of Bath will have a tale of the form "How I wooed/lost my nth husband" |
21233 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Withdrawn | The Summoner will have a tale of the form "The horrific crimes I've seen." |
21234 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Withdrawn | The Summoner will have a tale of the form "Here's why you don't want to be summoned by me." |
21235 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Wrong | Conditioned on the Summoner not having a tale of this form, The Pardoner will have a tale of the form "The things that I've seen" |
21236 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Wrong | The Pardoner will have a tale of the form "How a good-ish man was never shrived and (probably) went to hell." |
21237 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Withdrawn | The Friar will have a tale of the form "This awesome banquet I was at, and how I got myself in..." |
21238 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Withdrawn | The Friar will have a tale of the form "See? Holy people can be rich and still be holy," OR "See? Being poor doesn't make you any more holy." |
21239 | 2013-09-09 | 2013-09-23 | linkhyrule5 | 1 | Withdrawn | The Friar will tell the tale of meeting the Pope. |
21249 | 2013-09-10 | 2013-09-23 | ericlefevre | 1 | Right | La suppression du binôme de maintenance et gestion + challenging au stand-up par l'équipe ne causera pas de problème |
21250 | 2013-09-10 | 2013-09-23 | ericlefevre | 1 | Wrong | Le BOSS Talk Pomodoro va nous aider à nous concentrer |
21251 | 2013-09-10 | 2014-09-15 | ericlefevre | 1 | Wrong | Au minimum 3/4 de l'équipe BOSS est présente à tout moment, en particulier pendant l'été |
21281 | 2013-09-13 | 2018-12-31 | mfb | 5 | | NASA will not announce "Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space" again within the next 5 years |
21286 | 2013-09-14 | 2030-01-01 | Ben Doherty | 12 | | Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 |
21287 | 2013-09-14 | 2030-01-01 | Ben Doherty | 1 | | Human drivers will be illegal on *some* Australian roads by 2030 |
21288 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-27 | Flipnash | 3 | Wrong | In the next arc Taylor will have a second trigger event.[worm web serial] |
21291 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 4 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anger of the Gods |
21292 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 2 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Xenagos, the Reveler |
21293 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Chained to the Rocks |
21294 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Deceit |
21295 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Stormbreath Dragon |
21296 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hero's Downfall |
21297 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Abandon |
21298 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Mystery |
21299 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Silence |
21300 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Triumph |
21301 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thassa, God of the Sea |
21302 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fabled Hero |
21303 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Sylvan Caryatid |
21304 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Heliod, God of the Sun |
21305 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Polukranos, World Eater |
21306 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Steam Augury |
21307 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Elspeth, Sun's Champion |
21308 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 2 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Curse of the Swine |
21309 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prognostic Sphinx |
21310 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Boon Satyr |
21311 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fleecemane Lion |
21312 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Purphoros, God of the Forge |
21313 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 3 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx |
21314 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Gift of Immortality |
21315 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Spear of Heliod |
21316 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Erebos, God of the Dead |
21317 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Master of Waves |
21318 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Firedrinker Satyr |
21319 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Mistcutter Hydra |
21320 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver |
21321 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Soldier of the Pantheon |
21322 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nylea, God of the Hunt |
21323 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anax and Cymede |
21324 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Daxos of Meletis |
21325 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hammer of Purphoros |
21326 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Bow of Nylea |
21327 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reverent Hunter |
21328 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 2 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Artisan of Forms |
21329 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Agent of the Fates |
21330 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 2 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Whip of Erebos |
21331 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reaper of the Wilds |
21332 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Arbor Colossus |
21333 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 3 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Swan Song |
21334 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prophet of Kruphix |
21335 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 1 | Wrong | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Tymaret, the Murder King |
21336 | 2013-09-14 | 2013-10-14 | Roxolan | 2 | Right | In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: a Theros rare/mythic that I haven't listed in my other predictions (predictionbook.com/predictions/21290 to 21335) |
21366 | 2013-09-18 | 2014-04-01 | Omid | 4 | Wrong | Grand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014 |
21369 | 2013-09-18 | 2013-09-28 | atroche | 1 | Right | Geelong will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final |
21370 | 2013-09-18 | 2013-09-28 | atroche | 1 | Right | Fremantle will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final |
21371 | 2013-09-18 | 2014-09-18 | Flipnash | 2 | Withdrawn | The simurgh is playing taylor and lisa. [worm] |
21372 | 2013-09-18 | 2013-10-16 | atroche | 2 | Right | The Turning will have a Rotten Tomatoes rating >= 75% |
21373 | 2013-09-18 | 2013-10-15 | ygert | 4 | Wrong | At least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. |
21375 | 2013-09-18 | 2013-10-10 | Osuniev | 1 | Right | CIV PBF 88 : Arabia wins |
21389 | 2013-09-20 | 2023-09-20 | ygert | 5 | | "I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop." -- EY (on Facebook) |
21430 | 2013-09-23 | 2013-10-23 | phreeza | 2 | Right | Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany |
21486 | 2013-09-29 | 2013-10-03 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | US government shutdown will occur. |
21494 | 2013-09-30 | 2013-09-30 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | The New England Patriots will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Atlanta Falcons. |
21526 | 2013-10-02 | 2015-01-05 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Wrong | Democrats to gain control of the House at the next midterm election. |
21527 | 2013-10-02 | 2015-01-05 | JoshuaZ | 12 | Right | Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. |
21528 | 2013-10-02 | 2014-03-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | Mark Cuban will lose his insider trading case |
21534 | 2013-10-02 | 2014-06-01 | sdr | 4 | Wrong | SR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: "conspiring to murder" will turn out not to be true |
21542 | 2013-10-03 | 2015-10-03 | tedks | 2 | Wrong | SR: Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of narcotics trafficking (or conspiracy). |
21553 | 2013-10-03 | 2014-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or USA Today will publish an article concerning Jonathan Foster's murder before 2014. |
21567 | 2013-10-03 | 2013-12-01 | tylercurtis | 2 | Wrong | I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of November (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). |
21568 | 2013-10-03 | 2015-01-01 | tylercurtis | 2 | Wrong | I will make at least 100 public predictions on PredictionBook in 2014 (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). |
21571 | 2013-10-03 | 2016-02-15 | henchman21 | 6 | Wrong | Windows phone quarterly sales as a percentage of smartphones sold will eclipse iphone by 4th quarter 2015 |
21575 | 2013-10-03 | 2013-10-04 | alexaltair | 1 | Right | I will see a cat before I go to sleep (after the current time of 2PM). |
21581 | 2013-10-04 | 2013-10-08 | RandomThinker | 15 | Right | Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) |
21582 | 2013-10-04 | 2013-10-16 | RandomThinker | 11 | Right | Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) |
21588 | 2013-10-04 | 2014-10-05 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year. |
21589 | 2013-10-04 | 2015-10-04 | gwern | 4 | | SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years. |
21590 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-30 | foo | 1 | Right | In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month. |
21591 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-30 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month. |
21592 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-30 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month. |
21593 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-30 | foo | 1 | Right | In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. |
21594 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-30 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. |
21595 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-30 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month. |
21596 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-12-18 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. |
21597 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-12-18 | foo | 1 | Right | In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. |
21598 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-12-18 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month. |
21599 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-12-18 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month. |
21600 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-12-18 | foo | 1 | Wrong | In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month. |
21601 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-12-18 | foo | 1 | Right | In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month. |
21602 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-12 | foo | 4 | Right | The Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013. |
21608 | 2013-10-05 | 2013-10-22 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 22 October 2013 |
21609 | 2013-10-05 | 2016-10-05 | gwern | 1 | Withdrawn | SR: the user 'redandwhite' was a government agent. |
21610 | 2013-10-05 | 2014-10-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | SR: the Maryland trial will finish within a year. |
21611 | 2013-10-05 | 2014-10-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | SR: the NYC trial will finish within a year |
21612 | 2013-10-05 | 2016-10-05 | gwern | 6 | Right | SR: Ross Ulbricht was the original founder and only owner of SR |
21613 | 2013-10-05 | 2016-10-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Romania |
21614 | 2013-10-05 | 2016-10-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Latvia |
21615 | 2013-10-05 | 2016-10-05 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Sweden |
21616 | 2013-10-05 | 2016-10-05 | gwern | 2 | Right | SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in neither Romania nor Latvia nor Sweden |
21617 | 2013-10-05 | 2016-10-05 | gwern | 1 | Right | SR: the Maryland employee plea-bargained & cooperated with the government |
21618 | 2013-10-05 | 2015-01-01 | Omid | 5 | Wrong | Wendy Davis elected governor of Texas. |
21619 | 2013-10-05 | 2014-06-03 | Tuxedage | 10 | Wrong | The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. |
21632 | 2013-10-06 | 2014-01-01 | tylercurtis | 1 | Wrong | My personal website will be up-and-running again by 2014 |
21665 | 2013-10-09 | 2015-10-01 | zzkt | 2 | Wrong | FF: a prolonged series of predictions (and reflection on the predictions) will help separate things which can be predicted (and which it is useful to predict) from those which are immune to prediction. |
21668 | 2013-10-09 | 2013-10-18 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will attend Kent Hack Enough 2013. |
21669 | 2013-10-09 | 2014-05-10 | notsonewuser | 4 | Wrong | I will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester. |
21678 | 2013-10-10 | 2013-10-12 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will receive at least 50 special comments on my special Facebook status before I go to bed tomorrow. |
21679 | 2013-10-10 | 2021-01-01 | Omid | 15 | | USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 |
21680 | 2013-10-10 | 2014-04-10 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will post my planned comment on Occam's Razor on Less Wrong (see http://lesswrong.com/lw/s0/where_recursive_justification_hits_bottom/9vi3) in the next 6 months, as opposed to later than that (or never). |
21681 | 2013-10-10 | 2014-07-02 | Thelas | 1 | Right | The second Android: Netrunner big box expansion will feature Jinteki (in the same way as the first featured Haas-Bioroid). |
21695 | 2013-10-11 | 2013-12-25 | notsonewuser | 2 | Right | [mredactedw] will get an A in algorithms this semester. |
21696 | 2013-10-11 | 2014-01-27 | notsonewuser | 2 | Wrong | [mredacteds] will get an A in algorithms this semester. |
21697 | 2013-10-11 | 2024-01-01 | Omid | 1 | | New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024 |
21704 | 2013-10-11 | 2015-06-30 | timesuptim | 2 | Right | FF: we will use multiple logos. |
21705 | 2013-10-11 | 2013-11-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | I will get some unexpected points on Problem 2 of 10-11 algorithms homework. |
21706 | 2013-10-11 | 2013-10-11 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | My friend will get the right answer in algorithms class on 10/11/2013. |
21721 | 2013-10-13 | 2014-04-13 | recondaddy | 9 | Right | The majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014. |
21733 | 2013-10-15 | 2013-10-15 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | The Hawaiian punch will be gone from the fridge. |
21743 | 2013-10-16 | 2013-11-06 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | I got more than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. |
21744 | 2013-10-16 | 2013-11-06 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get at least 54 points on Part II of the algorithms midterm. |
21748 | 2013-10-16 | 2013-12-25 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | I will get a homework average of at least 92.5% for the whole semester for algorithms. |
21749 | 2013-10-16 | 2013-12-25 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | I will get a homework average of at least 95% for the whole semester for algorithms. |
21760 | 2013-10-17 | 2014-10-17 | gwern | 3 | Right | Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a year. |
21771 | 2013-10-18 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Wrong | Ted Cruz will not win a term as US Senator contiguous with his current term. |
21772 | 2013-10-18 | 2016-12-31 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | Withdrawn | Hillary Clinton will go unopposed in 2016 Democratic primaries. |
21773 | 2013-10-18 | 2016-12-31 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | | Contingent on his winning the nomination, Rand Paul will make double digit gains over John McCain among minority voters. |
21779 | 2013-10-19 | 2013-12-20 | gwern | 11 | Wrong | The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. |
21785 | 2013-10-21 | 2025-01-01 | Omid | 3 | | The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. |
21789 | 2013-10-21 | 2013-11-11 | tylercurtis | 2 | Right | I will receive at least 90% on the Discrete Math midterm from today. |
21790 | 2013-10-21 | 2013-11-11 | tylercurtis | 2 | Withdrawn | I will only lose points on the Discrete Math midterm from today for arithmetic errors or not performing as much calculation as desired by the grader. |
21791 | 2013-10-22 | 2014-01-26 | notsonewuser | 1 | Withdrawn | I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. |
21792 | 2013-10-22 | 2014-01-26 | notsonewuser | 3 | Right | I will not attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. |
21793 | 2013-10-22 | 2014-01-26 | notsonewuser | 5 | Wrong | I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time). |
21794 | 2013-10-22 | 2013-10-24 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will score greater than 85% on my MAT 265 Mastery Test. |
21806 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-11-08 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | Python SAR algorithm done by end of week 6 |
21807 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-11-15 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | Time-lapse dolly motorized and controlled by uC by end of week 7 |
21808 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-11-15 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | PCB finished and sent for printing by end of week 7 |
21809 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-12-06 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | I will be satisfied with project demo |
21812 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-10-23 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | Our landline phone will be fixed when we check. |
21813 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-10-23 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | The bridge to Goat Island will be open. |
21814 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-11-06 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | The algorithm I specified for Question 2c on the midterm was incorrect. |
21815 | 2013-10-23 | 2013-10-23 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | Over 95% percent of former student athletes have made a donation to the UB annual fund. |
21816 | 2013-10-23 | 2014-09-01 | notsonewuser | 3 | Wrong | I will not live at home next year. |
21819 | 2013-10-24 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | | PubMed's comment system will have some form of human moderation before 2015. |
21901 | 2013-10-30 | 2014-10-30 | gwern | 1 | Right | BMR will not be operating in 12 months |
21902 | 2013-10-30 | 2014-04-30 | gwern | 2 | Right | Sheep Marketplace will not be operating in 6 months |
21903 | 2013-10-30 | 2014-10-30 | gwern | 2 | Right | Sheep will not be operating in 12 months |
21939 | 2013-11-01 | 2014-01-02 | tedks | 7 | Wrong | BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. |
21940 | 2013-11-01 | 2015-11-01 | gwern | 12 | Wrong | Dragos Ruiu's "badBIOS" claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet |
22003 | 2013-11-07 | 2013-11-08 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Twitter stock price will exceed $40 a share on IPO day. |
22020 | 2013-11-09 | 2013-11-30 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get more than 85 points on algorithms HW7. |
22021 | 2013-11-09 | 2013-11-12 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | The first typo is correct. |
22022 | 2013-11-09 | 2014-11-09 | eface88 | 2 | Wrong | Maxmaps will no longer be working at Squad on November 9th 2014 00:01 UTC. |
22035 | 2013-11-11 | 2016-11-30 | najdorf | 38 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. |
22075 | 2013-11-12 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will visit Spain before 2015. |
22076 | 2013-11-12 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will visit both Spain and France (again) before 2015. |
22083 | 2013-11-12 | 2013-12-13 | gwern | 1 | Right | BMR will shut down within a month. |
22096 | 2013-11-13 | 2015-01-01 | atroche | 1 | Wrong | I will write 1667 words or more of fiction a day for an entire month during 2014 |
22097 | 2013-11-13 | 2013-11-16 | Gurkenglas | 1 | Right | This LW comment of mine will not have a ratio of upvotes to total votes between 40% and 80% in three days |
22098 | 2013-11-13 | 2015-05-09 | a0c4a123f7 | 5 | Wrong | The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election |
22105 | 2013-11-15 | 2014-02-01 | bobpage | 11 | Wrong | Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. |
22106 | 2013-11-15 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Right | By 2015, youtube.com will have an option (or default) that serves HTML5 video for >80% of the videos linked on their homepage. |
22107 | 2013-11-15 | 2014-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will watch any of Homeland 3x08 - 3x12 before 2014 |
22108 | 2013-11-15 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | I will switch to a primary non-Windows desktop or laptop before 2015 |
22109 | 2013-11-15 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | I will switch to Emacs as my primary editor for writing code, before 2015 |
22110 | 2013-11-15 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Right | I will write a > 100 line Python program or modify > 100 same-program lines of Python in 2014 |
22111 | 2013-11-15 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will write a > 200 line non-web/WebView mobile application before 2015 |
22112 | 2013-11-15 | 2025-01-01 | najdorf | 7 | | The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). |
22115 | 2013-11-15 | 2020-01-01 | sdr | 9 | Wrong | The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 |
22135 | 2013-11-16 | 2013-11-16 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | Florida State will not try a fake punt (on a specific play). |
22136 | 2013-11-17 | 2013-11-17 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | Auburn will complete a certain 3rd down in today's football game. |
22137 | 2013-11-17 | 2013-11-18 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | Auburn will win today's football game against Georgia. |
22138 | 2013-11-17 | 2014-01-18 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | "Story of My Life" by One Direction will be in the top 3 tracks for the United States on Spotify on or before January 17, 2014. |
22139 | 2013-11-17 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | Massive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015 |
22146 | 2013-11-18 | 2014-11-17 | alecbrooks | 1 | Wrong | I will still be using this in a year. |
22174 | 2013-11-22 | 2013-12-05 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | I will get at least a 90 on algorithms homework 8. |
22175 | 2013-11-22 | 2013-12-05 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. |
22176 | 2013-11-22 | 2013-11-22 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | LW Survey calibration answer. |
22177 | 2013-11-22 | 2013-11-23 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | Our professor will reveal the homework answer before it is due. |
22178 | 2013-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | gwern | 6 | Wrong | Zerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year |
22179 | 2013-11-22 | 2018-11-22 | gwern | 4 | Withdrawn | Zerocoin market cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) |
22180 | 2013-11-22 | 2018-11-22 | gwern | 6 | Withdrawn | Zerocoin market cap >$7,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) |
22181 | 2013-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | gwern | 7 | Wrong | Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year |
22182 | 2013-11-22 | 2018-11-22 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years |
22194 | 2013-11-23 | 2018-11-23 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Assassination Market will still be up in 5 years. |
22195 | 2013-11-23 | 2014-11-23 | gwern | 3 | Wrong | Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year. |
22209 | 2013-11-24 | 2014-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 5 | Wrong | Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 50-149$ (mtgox prices) |
22210 | 2013-11-24 | 2014-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 5 | Wrong | Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 350-549$ (mtgox prices) |
22211 | 2013-11-24 | 2014-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 5 | Wrong | Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 550-749$ (mtgox prices) |
22212 | 2013-11-24 | 2014-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 6 | Right | Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices) |
22213 | 2013-11-24 | 2014-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 11 | Wrong | Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) |
22214 | 2013-11-24 | 2014-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 4 | Wrong | Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: > 2000$ (mtgox prices) |
22215 | 2013-11-24 | 2014-01-01 | ArisKatsaris | 5 | Wrong | Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices) |
22243 | 2013-11-26 | 2014-01-02 | mavant | 1 | Wrong | I will be rejected from Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). |
22252 | 2013-11-27 | 2014-01-12 | Grognor | 8 | Wrong | Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate |
22259 | 2013-11-28 | 2015-01-01 | lavalamp | 2 | Wrong | By 2015, China will outlaw bitcoin, or otherwise do something to to make it impossible or very difficult to use bitcoin to evade their capital controls. |
22269 | 2013-11-28 | 2015-01-01 | notsonewuser | 2 | Wrong | I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. |
22270 | 2013-11-28 | 2013-11-28 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | My guess was correct. |
22287 | 2013-11-30 | 2015-01-01 | notsonewuser | 6 | Wrong | I will not look at porn from *now* until January 1, 2015. |
22293 | 2013-12-01 | 2014-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | I will speak (under any nickname) more than 50 lines total in #lesswrong, between now and 2014 |
22308 | 2013-12-01 | 2013-12-31 | tedks | 6 | Right | Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. |
22360 | 2013-12-05 | 2013-12-08 | ZGreyArea | 2 | Right | I will find a suitable Hobbit costume at the op-shop on Sunday |
22361 | 2013-12-05 | 2013-12-15 | ZGreyArea | 2 | Right | The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug) will score at least an 8 on imdb on December 15th. |
22376 | 2013-12-07 | 2020-01-01 | RandomThinker | 30 | Wrong | Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto |
22420 | 2013-12-10 | 2013-12-12 | adbge | 1 | Right | Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. |
22469 | 2013-12-14 | 2013-12-25 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get exactly 86 points on the algorithms final. |
22470 | 2013-12-14 | 2015-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will not place a bet on just-dice.com from now until 2015. |
22492 | 2013-12-15 | 2014-01-27 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | [redacted] will ask for a regrade on eir algorithms exam, and get at least 1 point back. |
22495 | 2013-12-16 | 2113-12-16 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years. |
22505 | 2013-12-17 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). |
22506 | 2013-12-17 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). |
22507 | 2013-12-17 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). |
22508 | 2013-12-17 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). |
22509 | 2013-12-17 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). |
22510 | 2013-12-17 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). |
22511 | 2013-12-17 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). |
22512 | 2013-12-17 | 2015-01-01 | notsonewuser | 3 | Wrong | I will be in the process of deleting my Facebook account before the end of 2013, and I will not use Facebook during 2014. |
22569 | 2013-12-22 | 2014-01-01 | atroche | 1 | Wrong | I will successfully complete the 750 Words monthly challenge for December |
22581 | 2013-12-23 | 2013-12-23 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins yesterday. |
22651 | 2013-12-31 | 2170-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 7 | | The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state |
22652 | 2013-12-31 | 2150-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 2 | | An Anti-Specieist World by 2150. Animal Exploitation will be a thing of the past, old blatant discrimination no longer accepted and the reduction of wild animal suffering a real task. |
22653 | 2013-12-31 | 2110-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 1 | | Virtual Immersion Technology will open up personalized virtual world's, VI video games & most popularly virtual cities (owned by companies similar to Google) in the 22nd century |
22654 | 2013-12-31 | 2115-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 1 | | Neo-Luddist's will be the Al-Qaeda of the 2110's. |
22655 | 2013-12-31 | 2130-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 1 | Withdrawn | A Transhumanist Organization's HQ's on the Moon will be tragically bombed by backward thinking Neo-Luddist's in the 2120s |
22656 | 2013-12-31 | 2130-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 2 | | Uganda will legalize Gay Marriage by 2130. Yes you read that right! It will probably occur in the 2110s or 2120s. |
22657 | 2013-12-31 | 2055-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 7 | | Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s |
22658 | 2013-12-31 | 2070-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 3 | | At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070. |
22659 | 2013-12-31 | 2014-10-31 | deanmullen2014 | 5 | Wrong | The outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014 |
22660 | 2013-12-31 | 2150-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 3 | | You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150. |
22661 | 2013-12-31 | 2030-07-31 | deanmullen2014 | 2 | | Brazil will beat Argentina in the 2030 World Cup Final in Beonas Aires. |
22662 | 2013-12-31 | 2025-01-01 | deanmullen2014 | 4 | | Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 |
22663 | 2013-12-31 | 2014-12-31 | mastermind8189 | 2 | Wrong | After Steve Ballmer Leaves Microsoft, the new stock price will nose dive. This will be because the incoming CEO will realize the mess he was left to clean up. By the end of 2014, the price will be around $30/share- (possibly - in the high $20's) |
22682 | 2014-01-01 | 2015-07-01 | waveman | 3 | Wrong | I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by mid 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms. |
22683 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-12-31 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2014. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. |
22684 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-04-30 | waveman | 2 | Right | I will be doing my 1.5km course with a 30kg back pack by end April 2014. |
22685 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-06-30 | waveman | 3 | Right | I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. |
22686 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-12-31 | waveman | 5 | Right | I will be able to do 20 full range pull-ups by end 2014. |
22687 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-10-31 | waveman | 3 | Wrong | I will be able to do 10 sprints to the top of the hill near my house in 15 minutes including returns but not counting the last return. By end October. |
22688 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-07-01 | waveman | 3 | Wrong | I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. |
22689 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-12-31 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | Share trading in place by eoy 2014 |
22690 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-09-30 | waveman | 3 | Wrong | Futures trading all done and in place with all the high priority strategies done by end September 2014 |
22693 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-01-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | My father will beat my mother in a game of Stratego. |
22696 | 2014-01-01 | 2014-03-25 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | I will make an A or higher in PWR. |
22736 | 2014-01-02 | 2014-02-01 | lettergram | 7 | Right | BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month |
22737 | 2014-01-02 | 2015-01-02 | adbge | 1 | Wrong | In one year, an oz of marijuana will cost less than $150 (after taxes) in Colorado. |
22738 | 2014-01-02 | 2015-01-02 | adbge | 8 | Right | The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. |
22739 | 2014-01-02 | 2014-11-05 | adbge | 2 | Wrong | Pat Quinn wins the 2014 Illinois Gubernatorial election. |
22766 | 2014-01-03 | 2014-06-17 | Tuxedage | 6 | Wrong | Dogecoin will be worth more than 1000 Satoshis ($0.00755000) by June 2014 (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) |
22768 | 2014-01-03 | 2015-01-01 | notsonewuser | 9 | Wrong | Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) |
22773 | 2014-01-04 | 2014-06-01 | notsonewuser | 2 | Right | [mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester. |
22774 | 2014-01-04 | 2014-01-06 | notsonewuser | 3 | Wrong | Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. |
22775 | 2014-01-04 | 2014-02-03 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will correctly guess the result of every game in the 2014 NFL Postseason (based on guesses in the comments of this prediction). |
22818 | 2014-01-06 | 2014-01-07 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | In the article "8 Subconscious Mistakes Our Brains Make Every Day" that I'm about to read, I already know of at least 4 of the mistakes. |
22819 | 2014-01-06 | 2015-01-06 | lavalamp | 3 | Wrong | A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next year. |
22820 | 2014-01-06 | 2019-01-06 | lavalamp | 6 | Wrong | A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next five years. |
22840 | 2014-01-08 | 2014-12-01 | NancyLebovitz | 1 | Right | There won't be any questions about street harassment in the 2014 Less Wrong survey. |
22843 | 2014-01-08 | 2014-01-15 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | Pandora Market will shut down / disable withdrawals within the next week. |
22866 | 2014-01-10 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will complete the Spanish skill tree on Duolingo before 2015. |
22867 | 2014-01-10 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Right | I will read 12 books before 2015. |
22940 | 2014-01-13 | 2015-01-01 | lavalamp | 3 | Wrong | There will be less than 5 alt-coins (out of the 50+ in existence) that will survive 2014 - http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ |
22941 | 2014-01-13 | 2015-01-01 | lavalamp | 2 | Wrong | The price of Bitcoin is likely to range between $4000-5000 by the end of 2014 - http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ |
22942 | 2014-01-13 | 2015-01-01 | lavalamp | 4 | Wrong | Satoshi Nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014 - http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ |
22969 | 2014-01-14 | 2015-05-01 | entropy | 1 | Right | I will finish CS124 this term |
22970 | 2014-01-14 | 2014-05-01 | entropy | 1 | Wrong | I will get A's or A-'s in all my graded classes. |
22980 | 2014-01-14 | 2014-09-01 | lettergram | 2 | Wrong | Price per barrel of oil hits $110 by the end of summer. |
22989 | 2014-01-15 | 2014-06-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Right | I will get an 'A' or better in PHI 313: Probability, Evidence, and Decision. |
22992 | 2014-01-15 | 2017-02-01 | waveman | 10 | Right | One of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever. |
22993 | 2014-01-15 | 2014-12-31 | ygert | 9 | Wrong | The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. |
22994 | 2014-01-15 | 2014-05-01 | Roxolan | 4 | Wrong | The website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive. |
22995 | 2014-01-15 | 2016-12-31 | ygert | 11 | Wrong | HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) |
23004 | 2014-01-15 | 2014-01-16 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | When I get to class, there will be at least 10 people there. |
23005 | 2014-01-15 | 2014-01-16 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | When I get to class, there will be exactly 5 people there. |
23006 | 2014-01-15 | 2014-04-01 | flyingfox | 3 | Wrong | There will be no snow this March in Champaign |
23036 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 3 | Right | 12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture. |
23037 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | Her will win Best Picture. |
23038 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | Gravity will win Best Picture. |
23039 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | American Hustle will win Best Picture. |
23040 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 3 | Wrong | The Wolf of Wall Street will win Best Picture. |
23041 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | Chiwetel Ejiofor will win Best Actor. |
23042 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor. |
23043 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | Meryl Streep will win Best Actress. |
23044 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | Sandra Bullock will win Best Actress. |
23045 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | Frozen will win Best Animated Feature Film. |
23046 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | The Wind Rises will win Best Animated Feature Film. |
23047 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | The Hobbit will win Best Visual Effects. |
23048 | 2014-01-16 | 2014-03-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | Star Trek Into Darkness will win Best Visual Effects. |
23070 | 2014-01-18 | 2014-01-19 | EvanB | 2 | Right | I won't end up going to the Alexis Ohanian event tomorrow |
23073 | 2014-01-18 | 2014-01-27 | EvanB | 1 | Right | I will create a movie for Campus Moviefest this year. |
23074 | 2014-01-18 | 2014-04-02 | lettergram | 62 | Right | There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. |
23075 | 2014-01-18 | 2014-04-01 | Merinnan | 4 | Right | High Court will rule for a re-election of the WA Senate. |
23076 | 2014-01-18 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 3 | Wrong | I will finish reading On Lisp before 2015. |
23079 | 2014-01-18 | 2014-01-19 | Duyut | 2 | Withdrawn | I will "feel" |
23134 | 2014-01-20 | 2014-07-19 | lettergram | 3 | Wrong | I will have 2000 Anki cards within 6 months in my collections (it's only 12 a day) |
23157 | 2014-01-20 | 2014-07-30 | Snowshi | 2 | Wrong | I will get a job after I graduate from high school. |
23158 | 2014-01-20 | 2014-02-14 | Vulture | 1 | Right | When the Wikimedia Commons RfC on the MP4 format closes, the majority of the !votes will be against any use of the format |
23168 | 2014-01-21 | 2016-01-01 | mad | 3 | Wrong | Anderson Silva will announce his retirement from UFC by January 1st, 2016 |
23169 | 2014-01-21 | 2015-05-01 | mad | 2 | Wrong | Survivor will have an all winners season for season 30 |
23170 | 2014-01-21 | 2014-12-31 | mad | 3 | Wrong | Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight) |
23172 | 2014-01-21 | 2014-12-16 | mad | 4 | Wrong | Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (middleweight) |
23194 | 2014-01-21 | 2014-01-25 | briennestrohl | 3 | Wrong | Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10) |
23195 | 2014-01-21 | 2014-01-21 | reesarose | 1 | Right | There will be a snow storm tonight |
23228 | 2014-01-22 | 2014-11-16 | Pandster | 1 | Withdrawn | More people will lose money, become more uncertain about their futures,but will embrace their surrounding people more as a result. |
23229 | 2014-01-22 | 2015-01-01 | orthonormal | 3 | Wrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting "Psyche" fake-endings). |
23230 | 2014-01-22 | 2014-02-18 | Vulture | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on the current MP4 RfC failing to gain consensus for use of the format, the WMF will enable uploading in MP4 anyway and be met with community outcry |
23239 | 2014-01-22 | 2014-03-01 | briennestrohl | 2 | Right | CFAR will get a grant from the American Mathematical Society to fund SPARC 2014. |
23240 | 2014-01-22 | 2014-01-29 | briennestrohl | 4 | Wrong | Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least ten women to make prediction book accounts. |
23241 | 2014-01-22 | 2014-01-29 | briennestrohl | 4 | Wrong | Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least twenty women to make prediction book accounts. |
23268 | 2014-01-23 | 2015-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | Clojure 1.6 will be released before 2015 |
23269 | 2014-01-23 | 2014-03-01 | waveman | 1 | Right | Jess will have written goals by end Feb 2014. |
23270 | 2014-01-23 | 2014-03-01 | mitodoteira | 1 | Right | I will still be actively using HabitRPG on March 1, 2014. |
23271 | 2014-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | RandomThinker | 14 | Wrong | Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 |
23272 | 2014-01-23 | 2014-06-01 | RandomThinker | 16 | Right | 2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool |
23273 | 2014-01-23 | 2014-05-01 | RandomThinker | 1 | Wrong | News will report stories of robotic submission of NCAA pool entries to Warren Buffett's 2014 pool. |
23274 | 2014-01-23 | 2014-12-31 | RandomThinker | 1 | Right | Netflix still won't have random shuffle playlists or per episode playlists by end of 2014 |
23277 | 2014-01-23 | 2014-06-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | I will have an internship this summer. |
23278 | 2014-01-23 | 2014-05-23 | ciil | 5 | Right | I will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea |
23311 | 2014-01-24 | 2014-12-01 | sdr | 14 | Wrong | HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 |
23312 | 2014-01-24 | 2014-01-25 | reesarose | 1 | Wrong | my mom will not remember to get dinosaur chicken nuggets |
23313 | 2014-01-24 | 2014-06-01 | Rowan93 | 2 | Right | I will still be actively using HabitRPG by June 2014 |
23320 | 2014-01-24 | 2014-08-01 | Rowan93 | 2 | Wrong | I will pass the exams for every module I take this semester |
23322 | 2014-01-24 | 2015-01-01 | Rowan93 | 1 | Wrong | By the end of the year, I will have reached a geohash point for the Aberystwyth graticule |
23323 | 2014-01-24 | 2014-06-01 | Rowan93 | 1 | Wrong | Between now and the end of May, I will miss fewer than ten lectures |
23326 | 2014-01-24 | 2020-01-25 | adbge | 1 | Right | Mukhtarbay Otelbayev will not win a Millennium Prize for his work on the Navier-Stokes equations. |
23327 | 2014-01-24 | 2016-01-01 | moore.thunder | 2 | Wrong | Adrian Fohr will succeed in his effort, 'to get %40 of Intro Microeconomics teachers to use his video blog as a teaching tool.' |
23328 | 2014-01-24 | 2014-09-24 | bluebart | 3 | Right | 'Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' will continue for a second season. |
23334 | 2014-01-25 | 2014-02-01 | vyctryx | 1 | Right | Ed will join PredictionBook. |
23372 | 2014-01-26 | 2015-01-01 | fiftytwo | 1 | Right | Scott Alexander will join Tumblr |
23394 | 2014-01-26 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 5 | Wrong | More Google glass will be sold in the first 80 days than iPads 1 were sold in the first 80 days (which is 3 millions). |
23395 | 2014-01-26 | 2050-01-01 | Mati | 4 | | I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. |
23396 | 2014-01-26 | 2014-04-03 | Mati | 1 | Wrong | Someone will send my at least 10 USD or CAD on PayPal (mathieu.roy.37@gmail.com) before April 2nd 2014. |
23397 | 2014-01-26 | 9999-12-31 | Mati | 1 | | The Clock of the Long Now will show a 1 as its first digit. |
23398 | 2014-01-26 | 2014-01-26 | tedks | 1 | Wrong | We can find a table with two available outlets at Rao's. |
23399 | 2014-01-26 | 2030-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | An hyperloop will be in use before 2030. |
23400 | 2014-01-26 | 2014-01-27 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | I will have heard of at least one of the top 5 websites on this page: http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1w6ixc/what_is_the_best_website_that_nobody_knows_about/ |
23401 | 2014-01-26 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 7 | Wrong | Bitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014. |
23428 | 2014-01-27 | 2014-02-04 | vasaka | 1 | Right | I will live higher then 5th floor |
23429 | 2014-01-27 | 2014-01-27 | vasaka | 1 | Right | Will come home before 23 |
23430 | 2014-01-27 | 2014-02-04 | mimikria | 1 | Right | hanoi flat will be at 5th floor |
23431 | 2014-01-27 | 2014-01-28 | mimikria | 1 | Wrong | i'll sell the table today |
23432 | 2014-01-27 | 2015-01-01 | vasaka | 6 | Wrong | bitcoin will cost more than $1500 by the end of year |
23433 | 2014-01-27 | 2014-01-29 | mimikria | 1 | Right | nobody will call about bed till 29.01 :( |
23434 | 2014-01-27 | 2014-02-02 | mimikria | 1 | Right | rishta will come |
23468 | 2014-01-28 | 2014-01-29 | reesarose | 1 | Right | the eval will take a while |
23481 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. |
23482 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Right | China's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. |
23483 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 7 | Right | US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. |
23484 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | Egypt's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. |
23485 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | Israel does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state. |
23486 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 11 | Right | Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. |
23487 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 5 | Right | No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. |
23488 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 4 | Wrong | There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. |
23489 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 6 | Wrong | In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. |
23490 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 4 | Right | Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014. |
23491 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 4 | Right | Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013. |
23492 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 3 | Right | 2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey. |
23493 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 10 | Right | 2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. |
23494 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | At least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014. |
23495 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 4 | Right | CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. |
23496 | 2014-01-28 | 2015-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 10 | Right | MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. |
23522 | 2014-01-29 | 2014-02-01 | mimikria | 1 | Wrong | V of our things is <2.5m^3 and >2m^3 |
23527 | 2014-01-30 | 2014-02-01 | vasaka | 1 | Withdrawn | Volume is less than 1.5 m/m^3 |
23528 | 2014-01-30 | 2014-02-01 | vasaka | 1 | Right | Volume is less than 1.5 m^3 |
23529 | 2014-01-30 | 2014-09-01 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | I will intern at a financial firm this summer. |
23539 | 2014-01-30 | 2014-02-03 | NikiTaylor | 1 | Wrong | I'll get the job |
23546 | 2014-01-30 | 2050-01-01 | JosefK | 2 | | UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars |
23554 | 2014-01-30 | 2014-01-31 | reubensandwich | 1 | Right | I will go to the grocery store today |
23587 | 2014-01-31 | 2018-01-31 | adbge | 2 | Wrong | Amanda Knox will be found guilty by the Italian Supreme Court. |
23588 | 2014-01-31 | 2015-01-01 | azax1 | 2 | Wrong | I will read 25 books in 2014. |
23589 | 2014-01-31 | 2015-01-01 | azax1 | 2 | Wrong | I will read 30 books in 2014. |
23590 | 2014-01-31 | 2015-01-01 | azax1 | 2 | Wrong | I will read 35 books in 2014. |
23591 | 2014-01-31 | 2015-01-01 | azax1 | 2 | Wrong | I will read 50 books in 2014. |
23592 | 2014-01-31 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Right | A portfolio with one third of each TWTR, CAS, and GE will do worst than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). |
23593 | 2014-01-31 | 2014-09-19 | lettergram | 24 | Wrong | Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. |
23610 | 2014-01-31 | 2015-01-01 | Xammer | 2 | Right | I will read 120 books in 2014. |
23620 | 2014-02-01 | 2015-07-01 | waveman | 1 | Right | "Blade of Vengeance" will not move west of Penrith before mid 2015. |
23621 | 2014-02-01 | 2016-12-31 | waveman | 5 | Right | Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. |
23629 | 2014-02-01 | 2014-03-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of February. |
23630 | 2014-02-01 | 2014-02-28 | reesarose | 2 | Wrong | I'll be back to normal weight by March |
23670 | 2014-02-02 | 2015-01-01 | jeredcaleb | 4 | Right | scientists won't have the same technology in "back to the future" in 2015 |
23736 | 2014-02-04 | 2014-02-23 | Vulture | 7 | Right | Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) |
23756 | 2014-02-05 | 2014-02-05 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | There will be a snow day at Mount Holyoke tomorrow. |
23763 | 2014-02-05 | 2020-09-02 | Mati | 3 | | The government of Quebec will start using an open source operating system (instead of Windows) during the mandate of the next government. |
23764 | 2014-02-05 | 2015-02-01 | Mati | 2 | Wrong | At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2015. |
23768 | 2014-02-05 | 2014-02-06 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | Mount Holyoke will have a snow day tomorrow |
23778 | 2014-02-06 | 2014-02-24 | mad | 2 | Wrong | Rousey beats McMann by armbar in UFC170 |
23779 | 2014-02-06 | 2014-02-24 | mad | 1 | Right | Rousey defeats McMann in UFC170 |
23787 | 2014-02-06 | 2020-01-01 | Mati | 4 | Wrong | Apple will sell smart glasses before 2020. |
23788 | 2014-02-06 | 2016-01-01 | Mati | 2 | Wrong | Google will sell smart watches before 2016 |
23789 | 2014-02-06 | 2020-01-01 | Mati | 2 | Right | There will be (physical) Google stores before 2020. |
23790 | 2014-02-06 | 2050-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050. |
23791 | 2014-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Right | There will have been more than 1500 CI Members at some point before 2019. |
23792 | 2014-02-06 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 2 | Right | I will have been in Vancouver in 2014. |
23793 | 2014-02-06 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Right | I will have visited the Cronics Institute in 2014. |
23794 | 2014-02-06 | 2020-01-01 | Mati | 3 | Wrong | There will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020. |
23795 | 2014-02-06 | 2014-02-12 | Mati | 2 | Wrong | I will go see my grandparents this weekend. |
23796 | 2014-02-06 | 2015-02-06 | Mati | 4 | Wrong | I will have a girlfriend at some point in the next 365 days. |
23808 | 2014-02-07 | 2200-10-31 | Amélie_Roy | 1 | | I will be cryonically frozen. |
23809 | 2014-02-07 | 2014-02-07 | reubensandwich | 1 | Right | I will leave here before 10. |
23810 | 2014-02-08 | 2014-02-08 | reubensandwich | 2 | Right | I will leave here by 11 |
23811 | 2014-02-08 | 2014-02-08 | Amélie_Roy | 1 | Right | Tomorrow I will eat breakfest before 9 a.m. |
23820 | 2014-02-09 | 2042-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041. |
23821 | 2014-02-09 | 2014-02-24 | Mati | 5 | Wrong | Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) |
23822 | 2014-02-09 | 2015-04-04 | lettergram | 9 | Wrong | Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG |
23827 | 2014-02-09 | 2014-02-10 | Benquo | 1 | Right | Adina and Baaboo will have dinner with Maxine and me tonight. |
23831 | 2014-02-10 | 2025-01-01 | ZLM | 35 | | By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. |
23842 | 2014-02-11 | 2022-01-30 | ZLM | 2 | | I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. |
23846 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-30 | ZLM | 1 | | I will figure out what being transgender means by my 26th birthday. |
23847 | 2014-02-11 | 2019-01-30 | ZLM | 1 | | I will be able to afford to sign up for cryonics by the time I'm 30. |
23850 | 2014-02-11 | 2014-02-11 | ZLM | 1 | Right | I will be able to easily slide an index finger between my wrist and my watch that I haven't worn since before I started my transition. |
23851 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 2 | Wrong | HPMoR (up to 98): Hermione's body was stolen from a future version of Harry Potter. |
23852 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 3 | Wrong | HPMoR (up to 98): At some point in the story, cryonics will be mentioned. |
23853 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 3 | Right | HPMoR (up to 98): Harry Potter will never use the killing curse (aka the Avada Kedavra Curse). |
23854 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 4 | Wrong | HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Voldemort will die (permanently). |
23855 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 4 | Wrong | HPMoR (up to ch. 98): At some point, Harry Potter will use magic to directly modify his brain (ex. Memory Charm, False memory charm, etc.). |
23856 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 3 | Wrong | HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for some drugs. |
23857 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 4 | Right | HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter will respect his contract/promise from ch.47 with Draco. |
23858 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-02 | Thelvyn | 3 | Wrong | HPMoR: Harry will try to take possession of the other deathly hallows |
23859 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-02 | Thelvyn | 3 | Right | HPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life. |
23860 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-02 | Thelvyn | 2 | Wrong | HPMoR: Dumbledor will die with the feeling of betrayal. |
23861 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-02 | Thelvyn | 2 | Wrong | HPMoR: Harry will finc the chamber of secrets. |
23862 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-02 | Thelvyn | 2 | Wrong | HPMoR: Harry will find the room of requirement. |
23863 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-02 | Thelvyn | 3 | Right | HPMoR: Quirell has stolen the marauder's map from the weasley twins. |
23871 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Right | HPMoR: Voldemort will not die, nor become 'good'(ie. ally with Harry), but he will become (seemingly permanently) too weak to do evil (ex.: he will be in jail, or in suspended animation, etc.). |
23872 | 2014-02-11 | 2016-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Wrong | HPMoR: Voldemort will kill Harry Potter and still do 'evil things' at the end of the story. |
23873 | 2014-02-11 | 2015-01-01 | Mati | 2 | Wrong | HPMoR: Voldemort was good from the beginning. |
23874 | 2014-02-11 | 2019-02-01 | Mati | 4 | Right | Google will have had the biggest market capitalization in the USA at some point before February 2019. |
23894 | 2014-02-13 | 2014-02-13 | reubensandwich | 1 | Right | I will watching this movie by 9 (run time ~100min, imdb categorizes it as an action drama, rating between 7.7 and 8.1) |
23895 | 2014-02-13 | 2014-02-13 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will watch two or more video lectures tonight. |
23896 | 2014-02-13 | 2015-01-01 | notsonewuser | 2 | Wrong | At least half of my showers this December will be cold. |
23897 | 2014-02-13 | 2014-02-14 | reesarose | 1 | Right | ill get to see my boyfriend tomorrow |
23901 | 2014-02-13 | 2014-02-13 | captiancreeper19 | 1 | Right | I will not to do handstand by myself in gymnastics today |
23915 | 2014-02-14 | 2016-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Wrong | HPMoR: Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for a computer. |
23916 | 2014-02-14 | 2022-01-01 | Mati | 1 | | I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022. |
23917 | 2014-02-14 | 2020-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Wrong | I will start a PhD before 2020. |
23918 | 2014-02-14 | 2070-01-01 | Mati | 1 | | At least one of my grandparents will get cryonically frozen before 2070. |
23919 | 2014-02-14 | 2015-01-01 | platypus42 | 2 | | Before the end of 2014, at least ten more schools will adopt Meditation programs following the four at San Fransisco (http://tinyurl.com/sanmed) |
23980 | 2014-02-15 | 2014-02-22 | Vulture | 5 | Right | Within one week, the LessWrong post "White Lies" will have 800 comments or more |
23993 | 2014-02-16 | 2014-02-17 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will go home before monday. |
23994 | 2014-02-16 | 2014-02-16 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will go home before noon tomorrow. |
24016 | 2014-02-17 | 2014-02-17 | gwern | 1 | Wrong | McCaleb will confirm Mtgox never actually sold _Magic_ cards. |
24017 | 2014-02-17 | 2014-02-19 | reesarose | 1 | Right | my stomach will stop hurting by tomorrow |
24023 | 2014-02-18 | 2014-02-25 | booradleytron | 2 | Right | I will see Tegan by Monday. |
24024 | 2014-02-18 | 2014-02-19 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will finish two chapters of reading today. |
24030 | 2014-02-19 | 2014-02-20 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | Pizza-flavored Pringles contain milk ingredients. |
24035 | 2014-02-20 | 2014-03-07 | lettergram | 2 | Wrong | I complete the Irish translation of HabitRPG within 2 weeks. |
24040 | 2014-02-21 | 2014-04-16 | booradleytron | 1 | Right | I will go on a date with Nashwa. |
24056 | 2014-02-22 | 2014-02-22 | Benquo | 1 | Right | The unflavored Pedialyte will not taste discernibly worse than the flavored Pedialyte when I try it. |
24057 | 2014-02-22 | 2014-07-14 | Tuxedage | 10 | Right | MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. |
24068 | 2014-02-23 | 2014-02-23 | ygert | 1 | Wrong | Jacob Wilson wins Pro Tour: Born of the Gods. |
24069 | 2014-02-23 | 2014-02-24 | booradleytron | 1 | Wrong | I will get my lab report submitted by 15:00 today. |
24073 | 2014-02-24 | 2014-03-03 | gwern | 2 | Wrong | Agora marketplace will be severely hacked or taken down within a week. |
24074 | 2014-02-24 | 2014-03-16 | Mati | 1 | Right | I will not know the score of the hockey's final before I watch it. |
24075 | 2014-02-24 | 2040-01-01 | Mati | 5 | | Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040. |
24078 | 2014-02-24 | 2014-02-25 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | I will pee for at least 60 seconds. |
24096 | 2014-02-25 | 2014-06-11 | Mati | 2 | Wrong | I will have finished the Lesswrong main sequences by June 11th 2014. |
24097 | 2014-02-25 | 2014-02-25 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | One of the three top comments on the thread I'm about to read will be "gluten free." |
24102 | 2014-02-26 | 2014-10-14 | reesarose | 1 | Right | We'll make it to a year. |
24108 | 2014-02-27 | 2014-02-28 | mad | 1 | Wrong | The Beauty tribe will be the first tribe to vote a player off in the Survivor: Cagayan premiere |
24109 | 2014-02-27 | 2016-02-27 | shokwave | 1 | Wrong | HP MoR: Dumbledore kills Snape |
24111 | 2014-02-27 | 2015-12-31 | solipsist | 2 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Nicholas Flamel |
24112 | 2014-02-27 | 2015-12-31 | solipsist | 1 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: The Remembrall went off because Harry forgot to study mind magic |
24113 | 2014-02-27 | 2015-12-31 | solipsist | 1 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: Lesath Lestrange will cast Avada Kedavra |
24114 | 2014-02-27 | 2015-12-31 | solipsist | 1 | Wrong | _HP MoR_: A Horcrux or Philosopher's stone was hidden Mount Etna |
24115 | 2014-02-27 | 2014-03-02 | booradleytron | 1 | Right | I will have dinner with Nashwa on Saturday. |
24133 | 2014-02-28 | 2015-01-01 | chemotaxis101 | 1 | Wrong | Brazil, 2014: The federal government will announce that an official, mandatory rationing of electricity use will be imposed on a system-wide basis. |
24134 | 2014-02-28 | 2014-06-16 | Tuxedage | 2 | Withdrawn | a |
24156 | 2014-02-28 | 2016-01-01 | simplicio | 4 | Wrong | State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01. |
24157 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 2 | Wrong | Sarah (the cop/MMA fighter on the Brawn tribe) will win Survivor: Cagayan |
24158 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 4 | Wrong | Tasha Fox will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, accountant) |
24159 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 1 | Wrong | J'Tia Taylor will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, nuclear engineer) |
24160 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 2 | Wrong | Kass will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, attorney) |
24161 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 6 | Wrong | Spencer will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, "the cochran who doesn't suck") |
24162 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 1 | Wrong | Alexis will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, college student) |
24163 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 1 | Wrong | Brice will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, social worker) |
24164 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 2 | Wrong | Jefra will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, pagent girl) |
24165 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 3 | Wrong | Jeremiah will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, model) |
24166 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 2 | Wrong | LJ will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, bartender) |
24167 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 3 | Wrong | Morgan will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, ex-cheerleader) |
24168 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 2 | Wrong | Cliff will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, ex-NBA) |
24169 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 1 | Wrong | Lindsey will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, hairstylist) |
24170 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 4 | Right | Tony will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, cop) |
24171 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 3 | Wrong | Trish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor) |
24172 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-06-16 | mad | 3 | Wrong | Woo will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, tae kwon do-er) |
24176 | 2014-03-01 | 2014-04-01 | ygert | 11 | Wrong | Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. |
24180 | 2014-03-02 | 2014-03-11 | booradleytron | 1 | Wrong | I will see Nashwa next weekend. |
24181 | 2014-03-02 | 2014-03-23 | booradleytron | 1 | Right | Teddy and I will go see Cashmere Cat. |
24188 | 2014-03-02 | 2014-04-01 | jkadlubo | 1 | Wrong | HPMoR: I will finish translating 22nd chapter (into Polish) by the end of March |
24196 | 2014-03-03 | 2014-12-31 | refnum | 29 | Wrong | World War 3 will start by december 2014 |
24197 | 2014-03-03 | 2014-06-15 | refnum | 4 | Right | Russia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014 |
24198 | 2014-03-03 | 2017-01-01 | Porejide | 1 | Right | Amazon Prime will cost $150 per year or less on Jan 1, 2017. Contingent upon no major changes in the Amazon prime system (e.g., no premium service, drones, or changes in shipping rates). Per convo w Chris S, who thinks Amazon is gonna start trying to actu |
24199 | 2014-03-03 | 2015-03-03 | lettergram | 5 | Right | Russia annexes Crimea this year. |
24203 | 2014-03-04 | 2014-03-05 | reesarose | 1 | Right | I'll go visiting on Wednesday |
24219 | 2014-03-05 | 2014-03-06 | mad | 2 | Right | I will not go to the music quiz on Thursday |
24220 | 2014-03-05 | 2014-04-06 | mad | 1 | Wrong | I will not be feeling aftereffects from my IUD insertion in a month (cramps, bleeding) |
24221 | 2014-03-05 | 2014-03-06 | mad | 1 | Right | My IUD will be inserted successfully (i.e. i won't be in so much pain i ask them to stop / the doctor won't screw it up somehow) |
24222 | 2014-03-05 | 2014-04-09 | mad | 3 | Right | After a month, my IUD insertion will have been deemed successful (i.e. it will not have fallen out or caused some sort of medical complication) |
24223 | 2014-03-05 | 2016-02-13 | mad | 4 | Wrong | I will be attempting to get pregnant within a year of my IUD being removed (e.g. IUD removed > other form of BC > trying to conceive; or IUD removed > trying to conceive) |
24224 | 2014-03-05 | 2018-03-25 | refnum | 1 | Withdrawn | Japanese Misao Okawa, the world's oldest woman, will reach 120 years of age. |
24267 | 2014-03-07 | 2014-03-08 | dgray | 1 | Wrong | West Brom will win against Manchester United |
24268 | 2014-03-07 | 2014-03-08 | dgray | 1 | Wrong | West Brom will draw against Manchester United |
24269 | 2014-03-07 | 2014-03-08 | dgray | 1 | Right | West Brom will lose to Manchester United |
24278 | 2014-03-08 | 2024-01-01 | waveman | 1 | | By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. |
24279 | 2014-03-08 | 2014-03-09 | reesarose | 1 | Right | I'll start a new water withing a few hours |
24288 | 2014-03-09 | 2014-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | 90% turnout CI: [3000,5650] |
24289 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | PG President |
24290 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | KA President |
24291 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | JK President |
24292 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | PG Education |
24293 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Withdrawn | KB Education |
24294 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Community: TP |
24295 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Community: PB |
24296 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Community: SA |
24297 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Sport: TJ |
24298 | 2014-03-09 | 2013-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Activities: FC |
24299 | 2014-03-09 | 2014-03-16 | reesarose | 1 | Right | see ian this week |
24305 | 2014-03-09 | 2014-10-16 | Mati | 2 | Wrong | I will be a finalist for the MA365 mission. |
24310 | 2014-03-10 | 2014-04-01 | Peter Hurford | 2 | Right | Animal Charity Evaluators will publish their analysis on Joey and Xio's leafleting study by the end of March. |
24313 | 2014-03-10 | 2014-03-11 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | I will get to class before the people walking. |
24325 | 2014-03-11 | 2014-03-11 | Nachlader | 1 | Wrong | Arsenal will defeat Bayern Munich 3-1 |
24331 | 2014-03-12 | 2014-03-13 | entropy | 1 | Wrong | I will finish the CS pset by 3AM |
24343 | 2014-03-13 | 2019-03-13 | Michael Dickens | 1 | | The valonqar is Jaime Lannister. |
24344 | 2014-03-13 | 2019-03-13 | Michael Dickens | 1 | | The valonqar is Tyrion Lannister. |
24363 | 2014-03-15 | 2016-01-01 | Mati | 1 | Wrong | Mariloup Wolfe will lose her legal proceedings against Gab Roy. |
24387 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-16 | reesarose | 1 | Right | clean room tomorrow |
24391 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-05-22 | jkadlubo | 2 | Right | Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 months. |
24392 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-04-20 | jkadlubo | 2 | Right | Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 month. |
24393 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-04-07 | jkadlubo | 2 | Right | Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 weeks. |
24394 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-26 | jkadlubo | 2 | Right | Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 week. |
24398 | 2014-03-17 | 2015-01-01 | procran | 2 | Wrong | MH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by the start of 2015 |
24399 | 2014-03-17 | 2015-01-01 | procran | 4 | Wrong | MH370 confirmed as landed on a runway anywhere in the world. |
24400 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-18 | reesarose | 1 | Right | make cookies |
24401 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-18 | reubensandwich | 1 | Right | I will finish season five of breaking bad before I go to sleep tonight (4 episodes left at this time, I started watching yesterday morning) |
24402 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-18 | reubensandwich | 1 | Right | I will watch at least two episodes of breaking bad before going to sleep tonight. |
24403 | 2014-03-18 | 2014-12-31 | kindrapring | 3 | Wrong | Five more states will legalize same sex marriage by the end of 2014 |
24404 | 2014-03-18 | 2015-02-01 | dgray | 1 | Right | David Moyes will not be Manchester United manager at the end of January 2015 |
24426 | 2014-03-19 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 9 | Wrong | The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. |
24443 | 2014-03-21 | 2014-06-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | LitSoc gets affiliated. |
24454 | 2014-03-22 | 2014-03-23 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will watch one of my three video lectures tonight. |
24455 | 2014-03-22 | 2014-03-23 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will complete at least three more pomodoro cycles tonight. |
24456 | 2014-03-23 | 2014-09-01 | aarongertler | 1 | Withdrawn | I will have made 10 predictions on this website before September 1st, 2014 |
24457 | 2014-03-23 | 2014-09-01 | aarongertler | 1 | Right | I will have made 10 predictions relating to events in my own life by September 1st, 2014. |
24458 | 2014-03-23 | 2014-03-29 | reesarose | 1 | Right | go somewhere |
24459 | 2014-03-23 | 2099-03-24 | znode | 1 | Withdrawn | TEST |
24472 | 2014-03-24 | 2014-04-16 | mad | 1 | Wrong | Richard Walsh will compete in the finale fight for TUF: Nations (Welterweight) |
24479 | 2014-03-25 | 2014-03-25 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | This thread (http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/2173oq/what_movie_has_the_best_opening_scene/) will have "Up" as one of the top five answers. |
24508 | 2014-03-28 | 2018-03-27 | aarongertler | 2 | Right | As of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider "effective altruism" to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense |
24509 | 2014-03-28 | 2014-04-08 | Mati | 3 | Right | The PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections. |
24626 | 2014-04-07 | 2015-10-25 | gwern | 3 | Withdrawn | 9fd811e61b18aa0228a6da4610bbd4de96f69f0e1dd77eeb68d182862f925780 |
24656 | 2014-04-10 | 2050-01-01 | lavalamp | 4 | | The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. |
24718 | 2014-04-15 | 2019-04-15 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | Littlefinger was (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding. |
24734 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-05-01 | from3004 | 1 | Wrong | I will do between 60 and 80 pomodoros in April of 2014 |
24736 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-05-01 | from3004 | 1 | Wrong | I will continue to drink an espresso a day by the end of April. |
24737 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-05-20 | from3004 | 1 | Right | I will be able to pack everything for China into one backpack. |
24738 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-05-01 | from3004 | 1 | Withdrawn | I will sleep between 280-340 hours in April. |
24739 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-04-18 | from3004 | 1 | Wrong | I will do 8-12 pomodoros on April 16. |
24740 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-04-17 | from3004 | 1 | Right | I will waste less than 60 minutes on April 16. |
24741 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-04-16 | from3004 | 1 | Right | I will wake up at 7am April 16. |
24742 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-04-17 | from3004 | 1 | Right | 424 HW #7 will take 4 or fewer pomodoros |
24746 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-10-16 | from3004 | 3 | Wrong | When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% fewer problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober |
24747 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-10-16 | from3004 | 1 | Wrong | When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve the same number of problems (\pm10%) under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober |
24748 | 2014-04-16 | 2014-10-16 | from3004 | 2 | Right | I will not do the alhohol/math experiments |
24797 | 2014-04-20 | 2014-08-21 | briennestrohl | 2 | Right | Given that Brienne was free of social anxiety on May 20 2014, she will be free of social anxiety on August 20 2014 as well. |
24798 | 2014-04-20 | 2014-08-20 | briennestrohl | 1 | Right | Brienne will be free of social anxiety in 4 months of this posting. |
24799 | 2014-04-21 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | I will get accepted to App Academy before 2015. |
24802 | 2014-04-21 | 2014-06-05 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Right | A Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur. |
24803 | 2014-04-21 | 2019-04-21 | gwern | 16 | Wrong | "better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life" --Hontas Farmer |
24813 | 2014-04-23 | 2015-01-01 | mad | 1 | Withdrawn | The next time both me and my boyfriend submit fantasy picks on UFC.com, he will end up with a higher score than me for that round. |
24814 | 2014-04-23 | 2014-04-23 | Ham Nox | 1 | Wrong | I will look at my phone right after getting up and it will be between 5 and 6. |
24826 | 2014-04-24 | 2014-05-31 | Ham Nox | 3 | Right | I will still have making a prediction a day as a Daily in HabitRPG through May 31, 2014 |
24827 | 2014-04-24 | 2015-04-24 | Ham Nox | 2 | Withdrawn | Provided I am still using HabitRPG or another reminder system in a year from now, I will have making a prediction a day as an explicit daily checklist item. |
24852 | 2014-04-26 | 2014-08-15 | bibliophile221B | 4 | Right | I will still have making a prediction a day as one of my dailies through the middle of August. |
24863 | 2014-04-27 | 2014-05-28 | waveman | 1 | Right | The economist formerly known as 'The Blade of Vengeance" will read in full "The Crash Course" by end of 27 May 2014 |
24868 | 2014-04-27 | 2014-04-28 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | One of my 2 friends will be wearing jeans when I go to meet them. |
24880 | 2014-04-28 | 2014-05-31 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | At least 3 people (not including myself) will be signed up for my "I'm always right" challenge by the end of May |
24881 | 2014-04-28 | 2014-05-31 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | 15+ people will be signed up for my Prediction challenge(s) by the end of May |
24882 | 2014-04-28 | 2035-01-01 | Mati | 8 | | Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. |
24883 | 2014-04-28 | 2035-01-01 | Mati | 5 | | Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. |
24884 | 2014-04-28 | 2035-01-01 | Mati | 7 | | LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. |
24908 | 2014-04-30 | 2014-04-29 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | Friend's girlfriend will be at house when I get there |
24909 | 2014-04-30 | 2014-04-29 | Ham Nox | 1 | Wrong | Will run into friend on their way to work |
24910 | 2014-04-30 | 2014-08-15 | dgray | 1 | Right | Van Gaal to be next Manchester United manager |
24921 | 2014-04-30 | 2015-04-30 | gwern | 1 | Right | Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the _New York Times_ in a year. |
24924 | 2014-04-30 | 2014-06-30 | dusk | 2 | Right | Brayden accepts a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 |
24930 | 2014-05-01 | 2014-05-01 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | Rotten tomato score for Ender's game is between 12 and 98% |
24941 | 2014-05-01 | 2014-07-01 | Patrick Brinich-Langlois | 15 | Right | Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ |
24942 | 2014-05-01 | 2014-07-01 | Patrick Brinich-Langlois | 14 | Wrong | Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ |
24943 | 2014-05-01 | 2014-05-01 | mad | 1 | Wrong | Spencer will be voted out on this episode of Survivor: Cagayan |
24951 | 2014-05-02 | 2015-01-01 | etarletons | 1 | Wrong | I will publicly record at least one prediction per month, at least until the end of 2014. |
24952 | 2014-05-02 | 2014-05-03 | etarletons | 1 | Right | Tomorrow I will be asked/invited to do something outside of the house that is not grocery shopping. |
24991 | 2014-05-05 | 2014-08-16 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | My family does not get the creek house |
25001 | 2014-05-05 | 2014-05-19 | avipacker | 7 | Right | Oklahoma City Thunder will win their 2nd round series against the Los Angeles Clippers (2014). |
25002 | 2014-05-05 | 2014-05-19 | avipacker | 10 | Right | Indiana Pacers will win their 2nd round series against the Washington Wizards (2014). |
25003 | 2014-05-05 | 2014-05-19 | avipacker | 8 | Right | The Miami Heat will win their 2nd round series against the Brooklyn Nets (2014). |
25004 | 2014-05-05 | 2014-05-20 | avipacker | 8 | Right | The San Antonio Spurs will win their 2nd round series against the Portland Trailblazers. |
25005 | 2014-05-05 | 2014-05-15 | avipacker | 4 | Wrong | The Boston Bruins will win their 2nd round series against the Montreal Canadiens (2014). |
25006 | 2014-05-05 | 2014-05-16 | avipacker | 4 | Right | The Chicago Blackhawks will win their 2nd round series against the Minnesota Wild (2014). |
25007 | 2014-05-05 | 2034-05-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. |
25014 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-18 | Ham Nox | 3 | Wrong | my sister will trip down the aisle at her wedding |
25015 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-18 | Ham Nox | 1 | Wrong | one of the bridesmaids/men at my sister's wedding will faint |
25028 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Wrong | Hiroki Kuroda pitches at least 8 innings against the Angels. |
25029 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Wrong | Hiroki Kuroda pitches less than 6 innings against the Angels. |
25030 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Right | Dave Robertson pitches tonight. |
25031 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Right | The Yankees score at least 1 run tonight (5/6/2014) |
25032 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Right | The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 180 points in Game 1. |
25033 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Wrong | The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 220 points in Game 1. |
25034 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Right | The Blackhawks and Wild combine to score fewer than 7 goals. |
25035 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Wrong | The Blackhawks and Wild go into overtime in Game 3. |
25036 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | avipacker | 1 | Wrong | Clayton Kershaw gives up 4 ER or more (5/6/2014) |
25037 | 2014-05-06 | 2014-05-07 | cobalt | 1 | Wrong | I will get a haircut today. |
25051 | 2014-05-07 | 2014-05-08 | avipacker | 3 | Wrong | All TPS reports are delivered by 3 PM Thursday. |
25057 | 2014-05-07 | 2014-05-08 | avipacker | 2 | Right | OKC beats LA Clippers in Game 2. |
25060 | 2014-05-08 | 2014-05-09 | avipacker | 6 | Right | Penguins win Game 4 vs Rangers. |
25061 | 2014-05-08 | 2014-05-09 | avipacker | 1 | Right | Yankees will score more than 3 runs. |
25062 | 2014-05-08 | 2014-05-09 | avipacker | 4 | Right | Vidal Nuno will pitch at least 5 innings. |
25063 | 2014-05-08 | 2014-05-09 | avipacker | 1 | Right | Yankees hit a home run (5/7) |
25064 | 2014-05-08 | 2014-05-08 | avipacker | 1 | Right | Yankees score in 1st inning. |
25065 | 2014-05-08 | 2014-05-08 | avipacker | 2 | Right | Yankees score more than 2 runs in the 1st inning. |
25072 | 2014-05-08 | 2014-06-01 | etarletons | 1 | Right | I will have learned "a new thing" about my food problem by the end of May, as determined by an impartial judge when I explain how the month has gone. |
25126 | 2014-05-12 | 2016-06-30 | nyabhingi | 1 | Wrong | The new Berlin (Germany) airport will be operational until June 2016. |
25167 | 2014-05-14 | 2014-05-17 | Pablo Stafforini | 1 | Right | Wayne Hsiung will refuse to bet against the claim that attitudes to in vitro meat will change after such meat becomes commercially available. |
25240 | 2014-05-17 | 2020-01-01 | asdf | 1 | Right | PredictionBook exists on 01-01-2020 OR you will have some other way to access this prediction or other predictions made thus far. |
25245 | 2014-05-17 | 2014-07-01 | cobalt | 2 | Right | I will get an A in health for the year. |
25279 | 2014-05-19 | 2016-01-01 | player_03 | 5 | Wrong | By the end of 2015, at least one service will offer genome sequencing for less than $100. |
25280 | 2014-05-19 | 2014-06-20 | danne | 1 | Withdrawn | Mom and dad will not be going to the reunion. |
25301 | 2014-05-20 | 2019-01-01 | roshni | 1 | | Uniform civil code bill passed in India before 2019 general elections. |
25337 | 2014-05-22 | 2014-05-26 | rebellionkid | 2 | Wrong | Labour wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections |
25338 | 2014-05-22 | 2014-05-26 | rebellionkid | 3 | Wrong | Conservatives win most votes in the UK European Parliament Elections |
25339 | 2014-05-22 | 2014-05-26 | rebellionkid | 1 | Wrong | Lib Dem wipeout in the UK European Parliament elections |
25340 | 2014-05-22 | 2014-05-27 | rebellionkid | 1 | Right | Less than 33% of seats in the new European Parliament will be taken by parties who are part of officially eurosceptic groups. |
25341 | 2014-05-22 | 2014-09-19 | rebellionkid | 10 | Right | Scotland will vote NO on independence. |
25342 | 2014-05-22 | 2020-05-07 | rebellionkid | 2 | Right | There will be an in-out referendum on the EU in the next parliament. |
25343 | 2014-05-22 | 2020-05-07 | rebellionkid | 4 | Right | Conditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT. |
25344 | 2014-05-22 | 2015-05-07 | rebellionkid | 3 | Right | The next UK general election will be held on 7 May 2015 |
25355 | 2014-05-23 | 2014-06-22 | azax1 | 2 | Right | I will not get into college off a waitlist. |
25377 | 2014-05-24 | 2019-07-16 | BiasedCalibration | 2 | Right | House Stark (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series |
25378 | 2014-05-24 | 2019-07-16 | BiasedCalibration | 3 | Wrong | White Walkers to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series |
25379 | 2014-05-24 | 2019-07-16 | BiasedCalibration | 2 | Wrong | House Lannister (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series |
25380 | 2014-05-24 | 2019-07-16 | BiasedCalibration | 3 | Wrong | House Baratheon (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series |
25381 | 2014-05-24 | 2019-07-16 | BiasedCalibration | 4 | Wrong | House Greyjoy (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series |
25382 | 2014-05-24 | 2019-07-16 | BiasedCalibration | 5 | Wrong | Kingdom of Westeros to be dissolved by the end of the TV-series (No house rules more than 4 regions) |
25383 | 2014-05-24 | 2019-07-16 | BiasedCalibration | 5 | Wrong | Other to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series |
25392 | 2014-05-25 | 2014-06-01 | torekp | 1 | Wrong | The continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have < 3.4% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%). |
25393 | 2014-05-25 | 2014-06-01 | torekp | 1 | Right | The continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have <= 5.1% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%); i.e. within 1.5 times the original finding for uniform distribution. |
25394 | 2014-05-25 | 2014-05-26 | cobalt | 1 | Right | Laura will come over today |
25397 | 2014-05-26 | 2015-01-01 | rebellionkid | 3 | Wrong | On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine. |
25398 | 2014-05-26 | 2015-01-01 | rebellionkid | 6 | Wrong | On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto. |
25399 | 2014-05-26 | 2015-05-07 | rebellionkid | 5 | Right | Ed Miliband will lead the Labour party to the next general election. |
25408 | 2014-05-26 | 2015-12-31 | solipsist | 5 | Wrong | _HP MOR_: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione |
25423 | 2014-05-28 | 2015-01-01 | wraith | 1 | | Homestuck will update by the end of this year. |
25424 | 2014-05-28 | 2014-06-07 | wraith | 1 | Right | The USA's labour force participation rate will not increase in May. |
25433 | 2014-05-28 | 2014-05-29 | alecbrooks | 1 | Right | The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal in 24 hours. |
25436 | 2014-05-29 | 2015-05-17 | TheEconomistofVengeance | 3 | Wrong | I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, running a time of less than 2 hours. |
25437 | 2014-05-29 | 2015-05-17 | TheEconomistofVengeance | 2 | Right | I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, completing the race before the cut-off time. |
25438 | 2014-05-29 | 2014-07-06 | Matt | 2 | Withdrawn | My PredictionBook score will be higher than the current disappointing 1.09 in one month |
25439 | 2014-05-29 | 2014-07-06 | Matt | 3 | Withdrawn | My PredictionBook score will be higher than the then current site average in one month |
25514 | 2014-05-30 | 2014-05-30 | isaacjw | 1 | Right | I will get Bastion today. |
25526 | 2014-06-01 | 2014-09-23 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from *now* until the fall equinox. |
25546 | 2014-06-03 | 2017-01-01 | kjaques | 2 | Wrong | Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share then hold those shares and sell on Dec 31, 2016 you will show a loss. |
25554 | 2014-06-04 | 2014-06-11 | Neznans | 1 | Right | At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel with an article titled using a bad pun regarding TRS and the weather. |
25555 | 2014-06-04 | 2014-06-11 | Neznans | 1 | Wrong | Pops: "Someone will die on the concert" (The Rolling Stones Tel-Aviv 2014 concert) |
25572 | 2014-06-06 | 2015-05-07 | rebellionkid | 3 | Right | Nick Clegg will remain in the cabinet until the next general election. |
25573 | 2014-06-06 | 2015-05-10 | rebellionkid | 2 | Right | The government following the next UK election will not be a formal coalition. |
25576 | 2014-06-07 | 2014-06-08 | cobalt | 1 | Right | I will go to confessional tomorrow. |
25580 | 2014-06-07 | 2014-06-06 | etarletons | 1 | Wrong | A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant is married. |
25581 | 2014-06-07 | 2014-06-14 | cobalt | 1 | Right | I will want to go back to confessional. |
25582 | 2014-06-07 | 2016-06-07 | influnza | 3 | | Skype translator will be a huge success |
25585 | 2014-06-07 | 2014-06-08 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | Peter will eat dinner with his parents tonight. |
25586 | 2014-06-07 | 2014-06-07 | etarletons | 1 | Wrong | A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has written a complete work of fiction. |
25594 | 2014-06-08 | 2014-06-08 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | My program will work as I expect it to. |
25595 | 2014-06-08 | 2014-06-08 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | My program will work as I expect it to *this* time. |
25596 | 2014-06-08 | 2014-06-09 | etarletons | 1 | Right | A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant can remember another randomly chosen participant's name. |
25597 | 2014-06-08 | 2014-06-22 | cobalt | 1 | Right | My ia remediation is successful on the first try. |
25616 | 2014-06-09 | 2014-06-08 | etarletons | 1 | Right | A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has bare feet at 6:40PM. |
25634 | 2014-06-11 | 2014-01-01 | abdullahmarzouk | 1 | Wrong | 3d printers in houses |
25656 | 2014-06-12 | 2014-06-13 | aarongertler | 1 | Wrong | The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word "Ghost" or "Ghosts" |
25657 | 2014-06-12 | 2014-06-13 | aarongertler | 1 | Wrong | The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word "Ghost" or "Ghosts" (part 3) |
25658 | 2014-06-12 | 2014-06-13 | aarongertler | 1 | Wrong | The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word "Ghost" or "Ghosts" |
25659 | 2014-06-12 | 2015-06-12 | aarongertler | 1 | Right | At least one company in the 2014 YEI fellowship will raise $1 million within the next year. |
25660 | 2014-06-12 | 2019-06-12 | aarongertler | 3 | Wrong | Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. |
25661 | 2014-06-12 | 2014-07-07 | glennonymous | 1 | Wrong | I will get a job offer from the company I interviewed at Monday |
25680 | 2014-06-14 | 2014-12-14 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | I will still be consuming a near-tasteless source of calories at least once every three days six months after starting trying the Shangri-La Diet. |
25681 | 2014-06-14 | 2014-12-14 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | I will lose at least 18lbs in the six months after starting the Shangri-La Diet, and maintain the diet for that duration, defined as taking at least 100kcal of near-tasteless calories on at least an average of four days each week. |
25780 | 2014-06-24 | 2015-01-01 | rebellionkid | 4 | Wrong | Russia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year. |
25781 | 2014-06-24 | 2033-04-01 | rebellionkid | 4 | | "Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools" - Art Carden |
25786 | 2014-06-25 | 2020-01-01 | rebellionkid | 5 | Wrong | Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020 |
25825 | 2014-06-27 | 2016-06-27 | Ham Nox | 2 | Wrong | A close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years |
25826 | 2014-06-27 | 2019-06-27 | Ham Nox | 3 | Right | My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now. |
25856 | 2014-06-30 | 2014-06-30 | mavant | 1 | Withdrawn | something |
25857 | 2014-06-30 | 2014-06-30 | mavant | 1 | Withdrawn | This prediction will successfully post to predictionbook.com |
25858 | 2014-06-30 | 2014-06-30 | mavant | 1 | Wrong | This prediction will not post successfully. |
25881 | 2014-07-02 | 2016-01-01 | clemux | 3 | Wrong | Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of 2015, for the affair he has been indicted today. |
25946 | 2014-07-08 | 2014-07-14 | cdf12345 | 1 | Wrong | Brazil will win the 2014 world cup |
25947 | 2014-07-08 | 2014-08-01 | cdf12345 | 3 | Wrong | A wsop bracket winner makes the November 9. |
26003 | 2014-07-12 | 2014-07-14 | bobpage | 1 | Right | I will get my wanikani review queue down to 0 any time before July 14 2014 11am Pacific |
26012 | 2014-07-12 | 2030-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | | Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. |
26021 | 2014-07-13 | 2015-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | The Kingdom of North Sudan will be officially recognized by the African Union before 2015. |
26022 | 2014-07-14 | 2014-07-16 | Matt | 1 | Wrong | I'll get RCJ their numbers before close of business Wednesday. |
26034 | 2014-07-14 | 2014-07-14 | Ixiel | 1 | Right | It is not going to rain tonight |
26035 | 2014-07-14 | 2014-07-14 | Ixiel | 1 | Wrong | Josh will be on time |
26131 | 2014-07-17 | 2015-01-01 | dgray | 1 | Right | I will weigh at least 140 pounds by the end of 2014 |
26210 | 2014-07-19 | 2015-01-01 | Ham Nox | 6 | Wrong | Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 |
26211 | 2014-07-19 | 2014-07-27 | Ham Nox | 2 | Wrong | Alberto Contador to win the Tour de France 2014 |
26212 | 2014-07-19 | 2014-10-10 | Ham Nox | 24 | Wrong | Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize |
26213 | 2014-07-19 | 2014-10-10 | Ham Nox | 11 | Wrong | Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize |
26214 | 2014-07-19 | 2015-01-01 | Ham Nox | 3 | Wrong | A discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014. |
26215 | 2014-07-19 | 2015-01-01 | Ham Nox | 2 | Wrong | We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. |
26244 | 2014-07-20 | 2014-08-29 | azax1 | 1 | Right | I will get one of my top two choices of freshman writing seminar. |
26245 | 2014-07-20 | 2014-08-29 | azax1 | 1 | Right | I will get one of my top three choices of freshman writing seminar. |
26246 | 2014-07-20 | 2014-08-29 | azax1 | 1 | Right | I will get one of my top four choices of freshman writing seminar. |
26247 | 2014-07-20 | 2015-07-20 | azax1 | 1 | Withdrawn | If I am accepted into a college via transfer, I will transfer from Cornell. |
26377 | 2014-07-25 | 2016-01-01 | blubble | 3 | Wrong | Use of marijuana for recreation will be legalized in some/all states of Australia by 2016. |
26381 | 2014-07-25 | 2014-07-25 | blubble | 1 | Wrong | Cure will win this match (judged from the 7:30 mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYhoC_5p-to |
26397 | 2014-07-26 | 2012-01-01 | blubble | 1 | Right | Jaedong (zerg) will win this match (judged from 13:00): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl5VXt7q9co |
26423 | 2014-07-27 | 2014-08-02 | Ham Nox | 1 | Wrong | I get an interview from WHS in the coming week (until 2nd) |
26459 | 2014-07-30 | 2014-07-31 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Wrong | 30 Jul Block B will take 130min to complete +/- 10min |
26460 | 2014-07-30 | 2014-07-31 | Peter Hurford | 1 | Right | 30 Jul Block C will take 90min to complete +/-10min |
26470 | 2014-07-31 | 2015-07-02 | sigmaleph | 1 | Right | [Pact web serial] Blake will not retake his position as Thorburn heir |
26604 | 2014-08-01 | 2015-05-01 | spicedpiano | 1 | Right | I will be awarded the NSF GRFP this year. |
26671 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-11-02 | spacemammoth | 9 | Wrong | Ebola will be tamed in 3 months |
26672 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-11-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | iWatch will not be called iWatch. |
26673 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-09-02 | spacemammoth | 3 | Right | I'll find this site useful and keep using even one month later. |
26695 | 2014-08-02 | 2015-08-02 | spacemammoth | 2 | Wrong | I'll be addicted to this site even after 1 year. |
26696 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-09 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll discover something useful in this site within one week. |
26697 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I keep entering my prediction until 1 hour later. |
26698 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | My headache will be gone in one hour |
26699 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I'll decide to take shower before I go to bed because I smells. |
26700 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I'll be eating supper in one hour |
26701 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | Some one call me before I go to sleep |
26702 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | My friend will Skype me within 2 hours. |
26703 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | Someone will thank me tonight. |
26704 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I'll turn on TV tonight |
26705 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll turn on radio tonight |
26712 | 2014-08-02 | 2019-08-02 | spacemammoth | 7 | Wrong | Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. |
26713 | 2014-08-02 | 2014-08-02 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | My friends friend from Taiwan is actually not coming to Tokyo today... |
26714 | 2014-08-02 | 2015-01-01 | spacemammoth | 1 | | Apple is going to discontinue iPod classic this year |
26715 | 2014-08-02 | 2017-08-02 | spacemammoth | 4 | Wrong | Apple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years |
26816 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-03 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll be cooking tonight. |
26817 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-03 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | Gradation will be animated at the end of the day. |
26833 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-03 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll go out today. |
26834 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-03 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll implement Lorenz system on iOS in before 22:00. |
26835 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-17 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'm going to have my hair cut short in 2 weeks. |
26836 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-03 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll do 100 push ups today |
26837 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-10 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I'll not be listening to Nico and vine's song "Am I wrong" next week |
26838 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-06 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I'll not be googling who is "Bjorkiest" person in 3 days. |
26839 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-06 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I'll be stop downloading TV shows because it is distracting in 3 days. |
26840 | 2014-08-03 | 2015-08-03 | spacemammoth | 1 | | I'll be programming for Android OS within a year |
26848 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-10 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll be watching TV dramas everyday even after 1 week |
26849 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-10 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll not be reading news site like Yahoo for 1 week |
26850 | 2014-08-03 | 2014-08-05 | spacemammoth | 2 | Wrong | I'll be getting something important out of watching Breaking Bad for my programming project in 2 days |
26929 | 2014-08-04 | 2014-08-04 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | go to bed before 22:30 |
27924 | 2014-08-09 | 2014-08-16 | spacemammoth | 2 | Wrong | PredictionBook is distracting. That's why! Someone will agree with me in 7 days. |
27925 | 2014-08-09 | 2014-08-10 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I have shoulder pain. It'll be gone in 1 day. |
27926 | 2014-08-09 | 2014-08-11 | spacemammoth | 1 | Right | I'm in bad mood. It'll be better in 2 days. |
28011 | 2014-08-10 | 2015-12-31 | rationalnoodles | 2 | Wrong | Russia will close its borders by 2016 |
28012 | 2014-08-10 | 2014-08-11 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I have back pain. It'll be gone in 1 day. |
28042 | 2014-08-11 | 2016-11-10 | Ham Nox | 6 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016. |
28065 | 2014-08-11 | 2014-09-02 | dgray | 1 | Wrong | Manchester United will sign exactly1 player before September 2nd. |
28066 | 2014-08-11 | 2014-09-02 | dgray | 1 | Wrong | Manchester United will sign 3 players before Sept 2nd |
28067 | 2014-08-11 | 2014-09-02 | dgray | 1 | Wrong | Manchester United will not sign any players before September 2nd. |
28068 | 2014-08-11 | 2014-09-15 | dgray | 1 | Wrong | I will submit exactly 1 paper by Sept 15 |
28501 | 2014-08-13 | 2014-08-20 | Ixiel | 1 | Right | My wife's debit card is in the bedroom |
28529 | 2014-08-13 | 2064-08-13 | spacemammoth | 2 | | There will be no war in 50 years. |
28530 | 2014-08-13 | 2114-08-13 | spacemammoth | 4 | | There will be no religion in 100 years. |
28531 | 2014-08-13 | 2214-08-13 | spacemammoth | 1 | | There will be no border in 200 years. |
28532 | 2014-08-13 | 2024-08-13 | spacemammoth | 2 | | First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years. |
28533 | 2014-08-13 | 2024-08-13 | spacemammoth | 1 | | First artificial intelligent sex worker in 10 years |
28534 | 2014-08-13 | 2021-08-13 | spacemammoth | 2 | | First virtual tourism in 7 years. |
28535 | 2014-08-13 | 2019-08-13 | spacemammoth | 4 | Right | iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years |
28756 | 2014-08-14 | 2014-12-31 | minilodon | 12 | Wrong | Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year |
28757 | 2014-08-14 | 2014-09-30 | minilodon | 2 | Right | It has snowed at least once in Calgary by September 30 |
28934 | 2014-08-15 | 2014-08-18 | spacemammoth | 1 | Wrong | I'll finish Computer graphics course (20 hours course) in 3 days. |
29453 | 2014-08-18 | 2014-08-25 | rebellionkid | 1 | Wrong | Assange leaves the embassy within a week |
29454 | 2014-08-18 | 2015-08-18 | rebellionkid | 11 | Wrong | Assange leaves the embassy within a year. |
29455 | 2014-08-18 | 2014-08-18 | rebellionkid | 1 | Right | "Her insan doğar, yaşar, ve ölür." is meaningful and true. |
29523 | 2014-08-19 | 2014-09-05 | Calien | 2 | Right | I will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time. |
29527 | 2014-08-19 | 2014-12-31 | Calien | 19 | Wrong | Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. |
29528 | 2014-08-19 | 2014-12-31 | Calien | 1 | Wrong | By the end of this year, I will know 50 Canberrans who read LessWrong or attend meetups regularly. (I will have personally spoken to and remember names and faces) |
29866 | 2014-08-20 | 2015-05-31 | aarongertler | 1 | Wrong | The Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations) |
29867 | 2014-08-20 | 2015-05-15 | aarongertler | 1 | Right | Yale Effective Altruists will have at least ten active, non-graduating members at the end of this school year. |
29870 | 2014-08-21 | 2014-11-29 | Grognor | 1 | Wrong | Bruce Willis will have more than 5 minutes of screentime in Sin City: A Dame to Kill For |
30345 | 2014-08-23 | 2014-11-23 | Ham Nox | 1 | Wrong | Will be moved to Bay Area in the next 3 months |
30346 | 2014-08-23 | 2014-08-23 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 2-3 people knowing my name without prompting. |
31360 | 2014-08-29 | 2015-01-01 | rationalnoodles | 1 | Right | RUB/USD will reach 39/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. |
31361 | 2014-08-29 | 2014-08-31 | rationalnoodles | 1 | Right | I will come to Moscow LW Meetup on 2014-08-31. |
32111 | 2014-09-02 | 2014-09-02 | PlacidPlatypus | 1 | Right | TSM wins at least one game in the 2014 Summer NA LCS Championship match. |
32981 | 2014-09-08 | 2030-01-01 | rebellionkid | 3 | | A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. |
32982 | 2014-09-08 | 2050-01-01 | rebellionkid | 3 | | A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 |
33328 | 2014-09-10 | 2015-01-01 | rebellionkid | 6 | Right | Cameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year. |
33329 | 2014-09-10 | 2015-01-01 | rebellionkid | 3 | Wrong | Alex Sammond still the leader of the SNP at the end of the year |
33774 | 2014-09-13 | 2014-09-14 | Ham Nox | 1 | Right | I make at least $20 bucks profit at the swamp meet tomorrow. |
33931 | 2014-09-14 | 2014-09-19 | scav | 5 | Wrong | The scottish referendum vote will be 50-60% yes |
33932 | 2014-09-14 | 2014-09-19 | scav | 7 | Wrong | The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes |
34095 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-27 | Lina | 5 | Right | Bellroy and Trike will move from their West Melbourne office to the new Fitzroy office on 26th Sept. |
34096 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-18 | Mike | 1 | Right | Decommissioning of extract will be completed without issue. |
34097 | 2014-09-15 | 2015-03-31 | Mike | 8 | Wrong | Australia will see its first domestic, large scale "terror" attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. |
34098 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-16 | Mike | 1 | Right | I finish all five items on my "To Do Today" list tomorrow. |
34099 | 2014-09-15 | 2015-04-30 | Mike | 1 | Wrong | I will have no mortgage by the end of April 2015. |
34100 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-30 | Mike | 1 | Wrong | My son will have his first tooth by the end of September. |
34101 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-10-19 | Mike | 4 | Wrong | A fight breaks out at my 20 year high school reunion over something that happened 20 years ago. |
34102 | 2014-09-15 | 2015-01-31 | Mike | 3 | Wrong | I start polyphasic sleeping successfully. |
34180 | 2014-09-16 | 2014-01-30 | MattG | 1 | Withdrawn | The SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th and January 30th, 2014 |
34181 | 2014-09-16 | 2015-01-30 | MattG | 1 | Right | The SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th 2014 and January 30th, 2015 |
34182 | 2014-09-16 | 2015-01-01 | MattG | 1 | Right | The SMR Email list will be somewhere between 300 and 1000 subscribers on January 1st 2015 |
35545 | 2014-09-21 | 2014-11-01 | tylercurtis | 3 | Wrong | I will have reached a streak of at least 14 on my HabitRPG daily for making predictions on predictionbook at least once by end of October. |
35810 | 2014-09-22 | 2014-09-29 | Calien | 1 | Right | I will have finished the second season of Orphan Black by next Monday. |
36382 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I would have to rejig my unit choices |
36383 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I wash the towel by the midnight starting Sunday 28th |
36384 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | The current or most recent season of The Simpsons was season 25 |
36385 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | The Princess Bride has 90+% approval from Top Critics on Rotten Tomatoes |
36386 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | The population of Nigeria is over 400 million (Wikipedia) |
36387 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-11-14 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Second appeal reverses decision |
36388 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Global GDP PPP is over $100 trillion (Wikipedia) |
36389 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Global population is over 7.1 billion (Wikipedia) |
36390 | 2014-09-25 | 2014-09-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Barack Obama is over fifty years old |
36412 | 2014-09-25 | 2016-09-25 | rebellionkid | 2 | | In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative. |
36489 | 2014-09-26 | 2015-05-07 | rebellionkid | 1 | Right | At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP by the end of this parliament. |
36517 | 2014-09-26 | 2014-10-20 | PlacidPlatypus | 3 | Right | [LoL Worlds] Finals won by Korean team. |
36623 | 2014-09-27 | 2015-05-07 | rebellionkid | 1 | Wrong | Any Lab>UKIP defection this parliament |
36624 | 2014-09-27 | 2016-09-27 | rebellionkid | 3 | Right | If SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage. |
37385 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | The number of episodes in the OC is either 92 or 96 |
37386 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | The number of undergraduates at the University of Bath given on the Wikipedia page is less than of equal to 8850 |
37387 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | The number milligrams of sodium in a bottle of water is less than or equal to 12.5mg |
37388 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | Geoff Smith was born on 1st October 1954 or earlier |
37389 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | Tommy Hilfiger (the company) was established in 1977 or later |
37390 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | The population of Bath as listed on Wikipedia is 85,000 or higher |
37391 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | The greatest height given on Wikipedia for Ben Nevis in the infobox (conditional on such a height being given) is 4500 feet or more |
37392 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | The greatest speed of a barracuda that is given on its WIkipedia page (conditional on being given) is 73MPH or higher |
37393 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | The number of Google results for 'Monopoly' (conditional on a unique figure being given) is 4,000,000 or more |
37394 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | The highest land area given in the infobox for Russia is 325,000,000(km^2) or more |
37408 | 2014-10-02 | 2014-10-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | The number of episodes of The O.C. is 92 or 96, including specials |
38023 | 2014-10-07 | 2014-10-10 | Mike | 2 | Right | I will have at least one pint of beer with Dan on Friday afternoon. |
38037 | 2014-10-07 | 2014-10-07 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | Avril Lavigne is colloquially 30 years old |
38038 | 2014-10-07 | 2014-10-11 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | Conditional on us going. Ross plays Senorita i.e. he does it or nobody else pick it |
38039 | 2014-10-07 | 2014-10-11 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on us going, someone (possibly including Ross) picks Mr Brightside |
38040 | 2014-10-07 | 2014-10-07 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | The longest figure given on the Wikipedia info-box, conditional on it being given, for the length of the M25 is longer that 116 miles |
38041 | 2014-10-07 | 2014-10-07 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | The number of undergraduates at Bath Spa, conditional on such a figure being given and being unique, is 6500 or greater |
38042 | 2014-10-07 | 2014-10-07 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | The metric spaces lecturer says a sentence containing 'I claim' during the two hour lecture today |
38514 | 2014-10-11 | 2015-12-31 | mad | 1 | Wrong | I will receive a promotion or get a new job by 2016 |
38845 | 2014-10-12 | 2015-05-07 | rebellionkid | 1 | Wrong | UKIP wins at least 9 MPs at the next election |
39026 | 2014-10-14 | 2016-01-01 | codexaenir8 | 1 | Right | The U.S. budget deficit will be less than 3% of GDP for fiscal year 2015. |
39101 | 2014-10-14 | 2014-10-20 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Two or more people that I do not bring turn up to the first Bath LW meetup. (Fixed point prediction.) |
39102 | 2014-10-14 | 2014-11-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | beta_b by or on Halloween |
39712 | 2014-10-18 | 2025-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | | Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. |
39713 | 2014-10-18 | 2025-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | | Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m. |
39714 | 2014-10-18 | 2025-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | | Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. |
39820 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-12-31 | from3004 | 6 | Wrong | Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. |
39821 | 2014-10-19 | 2016-12-31 | from3004 | 1 | Wrong | Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2016. |
39832 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | The density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre |
39833 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Right | Bath #3: An even number of elements have been found/synthesised |
39834 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 5 | Wrong | The highest figure give on the Wikipedia article in the infobox for the length of the Nile is less than or equal to 3100.9km |
39835 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Bath #5: Virginia Woolf's lifespan is less than or equal to 45 years going by calendar |
39836 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Right | Bath #6: The number of letters in the Cyrillic alphabet is less than or equal to 30 |
39837 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Bath #7: The Young's modulus of steel given in the infobox on Wikipedia is less than or equal to 140GPa |
39838 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Right | Bath #8: Elizabeth II was born in 1926 |
39839 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Bath #9: The earliest edit on the Wikipedia article for sudoku was on or before 1st January 2005 |
39840 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Bath #10: The UK infant mortality rate is less than or equal to 1.36 per 1000 according to the CIA World Factbook |
39841 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Bath #11: The battery amount given on Wikipedia in the infobox for the Samsung Galaxy S3 is greater or equal to 3700mAh |
39842 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Right | Bath #12: Eliezer born in 1979 |
39843 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Bath #13: An 'English' mile, to four decimal places, is 1.6034km (Wikipedia) |
39844 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Right | Bath #14: Wikipedia: Electron discovered by or on 31st December 1923 |
39845 | 2014-10-19 | 2014-10-19 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Bath #15: The endowment given on Wikipedia for the endowment of the University of Bath is greater than or equal to £317.2 million. |
39999 | 2014-10-20 | 2015-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | | Most Senate Dems outperform RCP average by more than 1%. |
40000 | 2014-10-20 | 2024-10-20 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | | Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. |
40001 | 2014-10-20 | 2114-10-21 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | | Proof of concept for axion-photon conversion as a basis for energy generation demonstrated experimentally, as published in at least one refereed physics journal. |
40002 | 2014-10-20 | 3014-10-20 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | | If the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity before the confirmation of axions, the data collected during the event will provide confirmation. |
40088 | 2014-10-21 | 2015-10-21 | qznc | 16 | Right | Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year |
40402 | 2014-10-24 | 2015-01-24 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Wrong | In the EA survey, at least 50% of non-student respondents will self-report that they donated at least 10% of their income in 2013. |
40632 | 2014-10-26 | 2015-12-24 | roshith | 2 | Wrong | Roshith will be back in college in 2015. |
40670 | 2014-10-26 | 2014-12-25 | from3004 | 1 | Wrong | I will get an A in Spectral Theory this semester |
40671 | 2014-10-26 | 2015-02-28 | from3004 | 4 | Wrong | I will be able to obtain HRT by the end of Feb 2015. |
40672 | 2014-10-26 | 2015-07-31 | from3004 | 2 | Wrong | I will learn Esperanto to a conversational level by July 31st 2015. |
40673 | 2014-10-26 | 2014-10-26 | from3004 | 1 | Wrong | I will talk to my parents and sister on skype/hangouts/whatever for less than 1 hour today. |
40674 | 2014-10-26 | 2014-10-26 | from3004 | 3 | Wrong | I will do >10 pomos today. |
40675 | 2014-10-26 | 2014-10-26 | from3004 | 5 | Wrong | I will do less than 5 pomos today. |
40676 | 2014-10-26 | 2014-10-26 | from3004 | 3 | Right | I will do 5-10 pomos (inclusive) today. |
40889 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Meet up with Megan by or on 30th November. |
40890 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Number close RT by or on November 30th |
40891 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Number close LS by or on November 30th |
40892 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Number close Ellie2 by or on November 30th |
40893 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-11-10 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | | Conditional on it being the next action and sent by the end of Saturday 1st November, Megan replies to my text by or on Sunday 9th November. |
40894 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | My 100% category (and someone else's) dropped, and this was because of a reversed old prediction or site change, rather than a high-confidence prediction of mine being newly judged since Thursday 23rd November 2014 |
40895 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-11-02 | qwerty314 | 1 | Withdrawn | Conditional on me taking action, I will meet up with Becky by 2/11 in a non-church setting |
40896 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-01 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | Number Close BOTH by 1st December |
40897 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-01 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | Number Close FMK by 1st December |
40898 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-03-14 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | In first semester exams for my third year, I will get 70% or higher |
40921 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-11-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will learn to lockpick by November |
40922 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will learn to pick locks by January |
40923 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will learn to pick locks by next year |
40924 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | I will pass my grade 8 |
40925 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | I will get a merit or above at grade 8 |
40926 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | I will get a distinction at grade 8 |
40927 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | We won't get a dog by January |
40928 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-12-26 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | We will go busking by Christmas |
40929 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | There will be a death from Ebola in the UK by January |
40930 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 6 | Right | There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March |
40931 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 4 | Right | There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March |
40932 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 4 | Right | There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March |
40933 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-10-28 | msevrens | 3 | Right | The r0 of the 2014 Ebola outbreak will be under 2 |
40934 | 2014-10-28 | 2079-10-28 | msevrens | 2 | | By 2080 most manufacturing and processing of materials will be done in space |
40935 | 2014-10-28 | 2114-10-28 | msevrens | 2 | | Over the next 100 years, California will slowly turn into a desert |
40936 | 2014-10-28 | 2015-07-28 | msevrens | 3 | | Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period |
40937 | 2014-10-28 | 2050-10-28 | msevrens | 4 | | By 2050 the majority of music will be "generated" and not recorded. This will include vocals. |
41028 | 2014-10-29 | 2030-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | | There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030 |
41029 | 2014-10-29 | 2014-10-31 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | 50 or more candidates turn up to the first session of tryouts today |
41030 | 2014-10-29 | 2025-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 5 | | There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025 |
41031 | 2014-10-29 | 2020-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 6 | Wrong | There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2020 |
41032 | 2014-10-29 | 2017-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 12 | Wrong | There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 |
41218 | 2014-10-30 | 2014-10-30 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | The queen is older than 80 |
41219 | 2014-10-30 | 2014-10-30 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | The queen is older than 83 |
41220 | 2014-10-30 | 2014-10-30 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | The Queen is older than 88 |
41429 | 2014-10-31 | 2014-10-31 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Elon Musk is from the North-East, California, or outside of the US |
41430 | 2014-10-31 | 2014-10-31 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Elon Musk is from California or New York |
41599 | 2014-11-01 | 2015-05-16 | sweeneyrod | 4 | Wrong | The next government will be a coalition |
41600 | 2014-11-01 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I'll finish the first chapter of TAOCP by January |
41662 | 2014-11-02 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | If I do the first stage, I will get through to the next stage of the BIO |
41663 | 2014-11-02 | 2014-11-07 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will still be alive on Friday |
41675 | 2014-11-02 | 2014-11-02 | BathLW | 1 | Right | G.R.R. Martin is 54 colloquial years old or older |
41687 | 2014-11-02 | 2014-11-02 | BathLW | 1 | Right | China's nuclear weapon stockpile (preferably in the table) on the WP stockpiles article is <= 400 |
41688 | 2014-11-02 | 2015-10-11 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | I will achieve an NC by or on 09/11 |
41689 | 2014-11-02 | 2014-12-01 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | Date by or on 30/11 |
41690 | 2014-11-02 | 2014-11-07 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | Simon Harris mentions the Tommy Hilfiger jumper comment when he reports on the feedback questionnaires |
41691 | 2014-11-02 | 2014-11-02 | BathLW | 1 | Wrong | Pluto's mass as given in the Wikipedia infobox (assuming a unique such figure is given) is less than or equal to 5*10^12kg |
41926 | 2014-11-03 | 2014-11-03 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | The Thames is longer than 200 miles long as given in the Wikipedia info-box provided that a unique such figure is given |
42000 | 2014-11-03 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will read Winning Ways by March |
42001 | 2014-11-03 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will make another sling by March |
42107 | 2014-11-04 | 2014-11-04 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | Tony Dooley will start the break during the Metric Spaces lecture before 12:00 working by the time on my watch |
42129 | 2014-11-04 | 2017-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 4 | Right | Nothing will pass the Turing Test before 2017 |
42130 | 2014-11-04 | 2020-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 8 | Wrong | We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 |
42491 | 2014-11-06 | 2014-11-06 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | It's KA on the bus. |
42492 | 2014-11-06 | 2014-11-06 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | TD did exam q's in the most recent problems class. |
42493 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will get at least a Bronze on the UKMT |
42495 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-02-15 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get at least a Silver in the UKMT |
42496 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-02-15 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get a Gold in the UKMT |
42497 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-02-15 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get through to the next stage of the UMKT |
42498 | 2014-11-06 | 2014-11-06 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | FMK will be at the CU meeting tonight |
42499 | 2014-11-06 | 2014-11-06 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | I see BOTH or FMK on level 3 of the library prior to 18:00 today, using the time given on my watch |
42500 | 2014-11-06 | 2014-11-06 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | According to the values given in the Wikipedia infobox, Houston has a larger population than Austin |
42501 | 2014-11-06 | 2014-11-06 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | I will complete sheet 6 of number theory by 15:00 |
42515 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Either Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham or Southhampton will win the premier league |
42516 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Either Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Arsenal or Liverpool will win the premier league |
42517 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Either Chelsea, Man U, Man City or Arsenal will win the premier league |
42518 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Either Chelsea, Man U or Man City n will win the premier league |
42519 | 2014-11-06 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Chelsea will win the premier league |
42676 | 2014-11-07 | 2014-11-08 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | The sun will rise tomorrow |
42677 | 2014-11-07 | 2014-11-08 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | AW will be at karaoke tonight |
42678 | 2014-11-07 | 2014-12-02 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | Date with FMK by or on 1st December 2014 |
42679 | 2014-11-07 | 2014-12-01 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | NC probability girl by or on 1st December 2014 |
42680 | 2014-11-07 | 2014-11-08 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on myself, PC or M not doing it, Mr Brightside will be played in 'the karaoke room' whilst I am present |
42681 | 2014-11-07 | 2014-12-01 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | I will get a number directly from a street approach by or on 1st December |
42771 | 2014-11-08 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | It will snow before March |
42772 | 2014-11-08 | 2015-10-16 | sweeneyrod | 9 | Right | I won't convert to Christianity within the next year |
43059 | 2014-11-09 | 2014-12-25 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will go to Parkrun on Christmas |
43060 | 2014-11-09 | 2014-12-25 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will finish the sequences by December |
43061 | 2014-11-09 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will be able to do a free-standing handstand for more than 15 seconds by January |
43096 | 2014-11-09 | 2014-11-10 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | TB at karaoke |
43097 | 2014-11-09 | 2014-12-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | 2nd date with I |
43098 | 2014-11-09 | 2014-11-11 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I go to GE tomorrow |
43099 | 2014-11-09 | 2014-11-11 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I get one or more more bits/questions of the stats coursework done tomorrow. |
43100 | 2014-11-09 | 2014-11-11 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | NC tomorrow |
43202 | 2014-11-10 | 2015-02-15 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will achieve a new PB by February |
43203 | 2014-11-10 | 2015-10-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will achieve a new PB by October |
43370 | 2014-11-11 | 2016-06-16 | xrisque | 3 | Right | Journalers of OkC will still exist, and will have no less than 90 members. |
43371 | 2014-11-11 | 2016-06-16 | xrisque | 2 | | If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single. |
43385 | 2014-11-11 | 2014-11-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Chelsea will beat or draw against West Brom |
43552 | 2014-11-12 | 2014-11-12 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Dallas is one of the 20th largest cities in the US |
43553 | 2014-11-12 | 2014-11-12 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Shanghai is the 3rd largest city in China (including Hong Kong) |
43745 | 2014-11-13 | 2014-11-14 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | J will come to the WWRY rehearsal |
43746 | 2014-11-13 | 2014-11-14 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | G will come to the WWRY rehearsal |
43767 | 2014-11-13 | 2016-12-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | The next president won't be a Democrat |
43768 | 2014-11-13 | 2015-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | J's brother will join JB |
43903 | 2014-11-14 | 2014-11-14 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | FMK says that she isn't interested |
43904 | 2014-11-14 | 2014-11-14 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | Bob Dole finished 2nd to Bill Clinton in the election for which Bill Clinton was reelected. |
43905 | 2014-11-14 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | My Italian deck will have over 1000 cards by January |
43906 | 2014-11-14 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | More than 3 RDGers will watch WWRY (not including me, or N) |
43907 | 2014-11-14 | 2015-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | JH will get a baritone by September |
44354 | 2014-11-16 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | I will upgrade my computer by January |
44508 | 2014-11-17 | 2014-11-17 | Calien | 1 | Right | My event time is 2pm tomorrow. |
44509 | 2014-11-17 | 2014-11-17 | Calien | 1 | Wrong | My event time is 12pm tomorrow. |
44510 | 2014-11-17 | 2014-11-17 | Calien | 1 | Wrong | My event time is 1pm tomorrow. |
44511 | 2014-11-17 | 2014-11-17 | Calien | 1 | Wrong | My event time is 11am tomorrow. |
44617 | 2014-11-17 | 2014-11-19 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | We will come above 5th in the UKMT |
44618 | 2014-11-17 | 2014-11-19 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | We will win the UKMT |
44619 | 2014-11-17 | 2015-05-01 | So8res | 2 | Withdrawn | Nate will have "expanding the MIRI researcher team" as one of his first priorities for at least one month in the first four months of 2015 |
44835 | 2014-11-18 | 2014-11-25 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | There will be more than 3 people at JB |
44836 | 2014-11-18 | 2014-12-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will be level 11 in Italian by December |
45067 | 2014-11-19 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | One of my predictions will be the top prediction on 16th of January |
45068 | 2014-11-19 | 2015-01-01 | sweeneyrod | 4 | Right | There will be less than 10 wagers on this prediction by the New Year |
45179 | 2014-11-20 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will buy a Oneplus |
45180 | 2014-11-20 | 2015-10-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will get a new computer by October |
45607 | 2014-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | He was serious about t's too much. |
45608 | 2014-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I was going to think closer to FMK over branch by 23:59 of that day than at 07:00 on that day, conditional on finding out what happened on that day during that day OR he claims C OR otherwise yields on C |
45609 | 2014-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | CP Friends w/ RyW (FB) |
45610 | 2014-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Projecter board wipeable |
45611 | 2014-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Roy at karaoke |
45612 | 2014-11-22 | 2014-11-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I go to GE |
45757 | 2014-11-23 | 2014-11-30 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Arsenal will beat or draw against West Brom |
45758 | 2014-11-23 | 2014-11-30 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Liverpool will beat/draw against Stoke |
45759 | 2014-11-23 | 2014-11-30 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Aston Villa will beat/draw against Burnley |
45760 | 2014-11-23 | 2014-11-30 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Swansea will beat/draw against Crystal Palace |
45761 | 2014-11-23 | 2014-11-30 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Man U will beat/draw against Hull |
45970 | 2014-11-24 | 2014-11-24 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | Rosanna will not say a word to me by or on 10:35 |
46010 | 2014-11-24 | 2015-08-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will have over 100 complete predictions by August |
46011 | 2014-11-24 | 2016-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 19 | Wrong | I will have over 300 predictions by 2016 |
46012 | 2014-11-24 | 2014-12-01 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will have begun using Evernote by next week |
46013 | 2014-11-24 | 2014-11-24 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I still have no replies from the press |
46014 | 2014-11-24 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 3 | Right | There will be no single event causing the death of over 1 billion people (hereafter defined as an "apocalypse") before January |
46268 | 2014-11-25 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will have over 10 due predictions on 16th January |
46269 | 2014-11-25 | 2015-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will have over 20 predictions to be judged by 16th January |
46270 | 2014-11-25 | 2014-11-26 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will finish CA today |
46520 | 2014-11-26 | 2016-06-02 | from3004 | 2 | | The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016 |
46521 | 2014-11-26 | 2015-12-16 | from3004 | 4 | | Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015 |
46522 | 2014-11-26 | 2015-10-31 | from3004 | 4 | Wrong | Justen and I will dress up as Sirius and the Joker (Nolanverse) for Halloween. |
46523 | 2014-11-26 | 2015-01-10 | from3004 | 6 | Right | This wager will have an average estimate of 25-75% on Jan 10th, 2015. |
46671 | 2014-11-27 | 2015-02-14 | adri | 2 | Right | A will get 12 in Top. |
46672 | 2014-11-27 | 2015-02-01 | adri | 2 | Wrong | A will get no less than 1 instructorship in blok 3 or blok 4. |
46673 | 2014-11-27 | 2014-12-01 | adri | 1 | Right | A will submit application to DIKU instructorship before deadline. |
46674 | 2014-11-27 | 2016-01-01 | adri | 2 | Right | "Little sister" will go on a mission before 2016. |
46675 | 2014-11-27 | 2015-11-27 | adri | 2 | Wrong | A and M will be regularly using PredictionBook one year from now. |
46676 | 2014-11-27 | 2014-12-04 | adri | 1 | Wrong | M will make a prediction on H's MI grade. |
46677 | 2014-11-27 | 2014-12-04 | adri | 1 | Withdrawn | M will refuse to make sensitive predictions about close individuals. |
46813 | 2014-11-28 | 2014-11-29 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | If I go to PR tomorrow, I will get a new PB. |
47148 | 2014-11-29 | 2014-11-29 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I have already received my PR time |
47348 | 2014-11-30 | 2014-12-03 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | If I receive it, Trinity's reply will be positive |
47508 | 2014-12-01 | 2014-12-07 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Liverpool will beat/draw against Sunderland. |
47566 | 2014-12-02 | 2014-12-07 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | QPR will beat/draw against Burnley |
47747 | 2014-12-03 | 2015-07-02 | reallyyesreally | 4 | Wrong | Fewer than 5% of the predictions on this site are about something genuinely meaningful to either the poster or anyone around them. |
47944 | 2014-12-03 | 2016-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Below 10% of my predictions will be meta-predictions by 2016 |
48251 | 2014-12-04 | 2014-12-06 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | We will play T C tomorrow |
48252 | 2014-12-04 | 2045-01-16 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. |
48253 | 2014-12-04 | 2014-12-22 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | I will have my students' final grades in by December 21st. |
48254 | 2014-12-04 | 2045-01-16 | JoshuaZ | 2 | | Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045. |
48255 | 2014-12-04 | 2016-11-10 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | Democrats to gain control of the US Senate in the 2016 elections. |
48996 | 2014-12-06 | 2015-05-07 | rebellionkid | 5 | Wrong | Lib Dems win Cambridge at next election. |
49162 | 2014-12-06 | 2035-01-01 | Mati | 2 | | The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035. |
49523 | 2014-12-07 | 2014-12-25 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | At least 40% of my Calc I class will get at least one bonus question. |
49899 | 2014-12-08 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | HPMOR - Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga is Hat & Cloak |
49900 | 2014-12-08 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | HPMOR - Hat & Cloak is Snape |
49901 | 2014-12-08 | 2015-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 3 | Right | HPMOR - Hat & Cloak is one of Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldermort, Future Harry, Lucius Malfoy, Nicholas Flamel, Baba Yaga, Severus Snape, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew, Gilderoy Lockhart, Grindelwald, Narcissa Malfoy, one of Hogwarts' founders, MadEye Moody, |
49902 | 2014-12-08 | 2014-12-14 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | Corinna and I will watch the OC together prior to 14/12/14 |
49948 | 2014-12-09 | 2015-03-01 | adri | 1 | Right | A will go to France before March 2015. |
50101 | 2014-12-09 | 2014-12-14 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Sunderland will beat/draw against West Ham |
50283 | 2014-12-10 | 2015-12-10 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | Part or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year. |
50492 | 2014-12-10 | 2014-12-14 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Southampton will beat/draw against Burnley |
50790 | 2014-12-12 | 2014-12-14 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Sunderland will beat/draw against West Ham |
50850 | 2014-12-12 | 2014-12-16 | adri | 1 | Right | A will get no less than 90% on Top WA3. |
51007 | 2014-12-13 | 2016-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 6 | Wrong | The FTSE 100 will be over 9000 on January 16th 2016 |
51086 | 2014-12-14 | 2014-12-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | R will be at Monday's rehearsal |
51211 | 2014-12-15 | 2024-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 |
51294 | 2014-12-15 | 2014-12-21 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | West Ham will beat/draw against Leicester City |
51593 | 2014-12-16 | 2014-12-18 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will score above 70 on the BIO |
51720 | 2014-12-17 | 2050-01-01 | dvolk | 3 | | Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050 |
51835 | 2014-12-17 | 2014-12-19 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get through to the next round of the BIO |
51836 | 2014-12-17 | 2014-12-18 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Everyone will turn next up to the next rehearsal |
52560 | 2014-12-19 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | At least one substantial improvement on the finite group isomorphism problem will occur before 2035. |
52561 | 2014-12-19 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | A general factoring algorithm better than the number field sieve by 2035 |
52562 | 2014-12-19 | 2045-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | u(1/2)<=.15 by 2045. Here mean u(1/2) in the Lindelof hypothesis. |
52988 | 2014-12-21 | 2014-12-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Man City will beat/draw against West Brom |
52989 | 2014-12-21 | 2014-12-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Sunderland will beat/draw against Hull City |
52990 | 2014-12-21 | 2014-12-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Everton will beat/draw against Stoke City |
52991 | 2014-12-21 | 2014-12-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Tottenham will beat/draw against Leicester City |
52992 | 2014-12-21 | 2014-12-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Liverpool will beat/draw against Burnley |
53380 | 2014-12-23 | 2015-01-01 | brightcloud | 2 | Right | I will make my return flight from San Francisco. |
53789 | 2014-12-24 | 2014-12-26 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Thunder will beat/draw against Spurs |
53808 | 2014-12-24 | 2014-12-26 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Bulls will beat/draw against Lakers |
54109 | 2014-12-25 | 2014-12-25 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | College Inside View will succeed |
54110 | 2014-12-25 | 2015-02-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | I will finish Antichamber before 2015-02-01 |
54111 | 2014-12-25 | 2015-01-01 | adri | 1 | Right | A will not further modify the deadline rules of BM. |
54112 | 2014-12-25 | 2015-01-01 | adri | 1 | Wrong | A will complete BM goal without derail under rules dated 2014-12-26. |
54628 | 2014-12-27 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | A mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error). |
54706 | 2014-12-27 | 2014-12-29 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Chelsea will beat/draw against Southampton |
54708 | 2014-12-27 | 2014-12-29 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Man City will beat/draw against Burnley |
54709 | 2014-12-27 | 2014-12-29 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Sunderland will beat/draw against Aston Villa |
54710 | 2014-12-27 | 2014-12-29 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Pistons will beat/draw against Cavaliers |
54711 | 2014-12-27 | 2014-12-29 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Spurs will beat/draw against Rockets |
54934 | 2014-12-28 | 2014-12-31 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will have completed the PC by Wednesday |
55213 | 2014-12-29 | 2015-01-02 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Man City will beat/draw against Sunderland |
55307 | 2014-12-29 | 2015-01-29 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | I get the Khan Academy Internship |
55308 | 2014-12-29 | 2015-01-29 | Adam Zerner | 3 | Wrong | I get the job at Google |
56226 | 2015-01-02 | 2016-01-01 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. By EOY 2015. |
56227 | 2015-01-02 | 2015-04-01 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end 1Q 2015 thus completing second year physics. |
56228 | 2015-01-02 | 2016-01-01 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by end 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms texts that I choose. |
56229 | 2015-01-02 | 2015-07-01 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2Q 2015. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. |
56464 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10 |
56465 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.50 |
56502 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 12 blog posts. |
56503 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post more than 25 blog posts. |
56504 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 5 blog posts. |
56505 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 12 blog posts. |
56506 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post more than 25 blog posts. |
56507 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | At the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. |
56508 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 6 | Right | At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. |
56608 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | roreiy | 4 | Wrong | Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 |
56609 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-05-07 | doxievee | 8 | Wrong | No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election |
56610 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-05-07 | roreiy | 7 | Right | The Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. |
56611 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-05-07 | roreiy | 1 | Withdrawn | The Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. |
56612 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-05-14 | doxievee | 6 | Wrong | The next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be Ed Miliband |
56613 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | doxievee | 1 | Withdrawn | By midnight on New Year's Eve 2016, I will have fewer than 1000 followers on Twitter |
56614 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-05-07 | roreiy | 5 | Wrong | The Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. |
56615 | 2015-01-03 | 2017-01-03 | doxievee | 1 | Wrong | The next leader of the Democratic Unionist Party will be Edwin Poots |
56616 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | roreiy | 3 | Wrong | By midnight on New Year's Eve, I will have fewer than 1000 followers on Twitter |
56617 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | roreiy | 7 | Right | Barack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016. |
56619 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | roreiy | 18 | Wrong | Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 |
56620 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | roreiy | 18 | Right | Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 |
56621 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-05-07 | roreiy | 5 | Right | Ukip will have five or less seats following the UK general election. |
56622 | 2015-01-03 | 2016-01-01 | roreiy | 2 | Right | I will write >10 blog posts in 2015. |
56673 | 2015-01-03 | 2015-02-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Withdrawn | On this year's Less Wrong survey, at least two people will have the same public and private keys (not considering capitalization). |
56814 | 2015-01-04 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 5 | Right | The SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election |
57019 | 2015-01-05 | 2015-01-07 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Bucks will beat/draw against Suns |
57393 | 2015-01-07 | 2015-07-01 | Calien | 1 | Wrong | I will have officially switched to PhB by next semester. |
57493 | 2015-01-07 | 2015-01-11 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Man City will beat/draw against Everton |
57494 | 2015-01-07 | 2016-01-01 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Withdrawn | "In 2015, notable (choose your definition) publications will declare their intentions to go fully distributed" |
57495 | 2015-01-07 | 2016-01-01 | Ben Doherty | 1 | Wrong | "Twitter will hire a bunch of “anchors” to retweet celebrities and politicians..." |
57604 | 2015-01-07 | 2015-08-16 | moridinamael | 3 | Wrong | Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $100/bbl in August |
57690 | 2015-01-07 | 2016-01-01 | adri | 2 | Wrong | A's bike will get stolen or lost in 2015. |
57691 | 2015-01-07 | 2015-09-01 | adri | 1 | Withdrawn | A will get no les than 1 instructorship in B3/4. |
57692 | 2015-01-07 | 2015-09-01 | adri | 1 | Wrong | A will have set up stuk before September 2015. |
57693 | 2015-01-07 | 2015-07-16 | adri | 2 | Wrong | M will take Geom1 reexam. |
57694 | 2015-01-07 | 2016-01-01 | adri | 1 | Right | A will go skiing in 2015. |
58102 | 2015-01-09 | 2015-01-11 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Clippers will beat/draw against Mavericks |
58146 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-01-11 | dgray | 1 | Right | Burnley win/draw against QPR |
58194 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Right | I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. |
58195 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | I will be a vegan at the end of the year. |
58196 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | Sam will be a vegetarian or a pescetarian at the end of the year. |
58197 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | Sam will be a vegan at the end of the year. |
58198 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | I will end the year still living in the Cambridge area. |
58200 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | I will end the year living in a Rationalist house. |
58201 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | I will still work for my current company at the end of 2015. |
58202 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Sam will still be involved with the morality lab at the end of 2015. |
58203 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | In 2015 I will read at least 15 books. |
58204 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | We will sell the car before Dec 31, 2015. |
58205 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | In 2015 I will have a baby. |
58206 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | Wumpus will still be alive at the end of 2015. |
58207 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | During 2015 I will run at least 1 marathon. |
58208 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | During 2015 I will lose my wallet. |
58209 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Sam’s computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. |
58210 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | My computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. |
58211 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-09-05 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | Sam will attend the 2015 Burning Man. |
58212 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-09-05 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | I will attend the 2015 Burning Man. |
58213 | 2015-01-10 | 2016-01-01 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. |
58214 | 2015-01-10 | 2016-01-01 | EloiseRosen | 13 | Right | In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. |
58215 | 2015-01-10 | 2015-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 20 | Right | North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. |
58317 | 2015-01-11 | 2015-01-11 | dgray | 1 | Right | Arsenal win/draw against Stoke |
58419 | 2015-01-11 | 2015-01-13 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | Nets will beat/draw against Rockets |
58420 | 2015-01-11 | 2015-01-13 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Pistons will beat/draw against Raptors |
58421 | 2015-01-11 | 2015-01-13 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | Bulls will beat/draw against Magic |
58589 | 2015-01-12 | 2015-01-12 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | It was Lana Del Rey in BK |
58592 | 2015-01-12 | 2015-01-18 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | I go into Po's this Friday |
58804 | 2015-01-13 | 2015-01-14 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | Spurs will beat/draw against Wizards |
58837 | 2015-01-13 | 2015-04-04 | Rory O’Kane | 1 | Wrong | The Rust programming language will reach version 1.0.0 by April 4, 2015 (the first six-week cycle after the scheduled beta1). |
58838 | 2015-01-13 | 2015-01-13 | benwr | 1 | Right | I will be alive at the end of this class period. |
58869 | 2015-01-13 | 2015-01-14 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | MA30237 exam will be cancelled |
58912 | 2015-01-14 | 2015-01-14 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | Ipswich will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup |
58913 | 2015-01-14 | 2015-01-14 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | Bradford will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup |
58914 | 2015-01-14 | 2015-01-15 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Spurs will beat/draw against Hornets |
58915 | 2015-01-14 | 2015-01-15 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | Rockets will beat/draw against Magic |
58916 | 2015-01-14 | 2015-01-14 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | GT's CMT is 8+ |
59152 | 2015-01-15 | 2015-05-08 | RogerE | 6 | Wrong | The UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015 |
59153 | 2015-01-15 | 2015-01-17 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Wizards will beat/draw against Nets |
59211 | 2015-01-15 | 2016-10-01 | woodse | 4 | Wrong | Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. |
59212 | 2015-01-15 | 2015-05-20 | woodse | 1 | | I will maintain my GPA above a 3.6 overall average this semester. |
59215 | 2015-01-16 | 2015-05-01 | woodse | 4 | Wrong | That my wife will give birth to a baby girl |
59216 | 2015-01-16 | 2015-02-02 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | C's contract will be extended past Jan 30. |
59217 | 2015-01-16 | 2017-01-01 | woodse | 2 | Wrong | recreational use of marijuana will be legalized in arizona by 2017 |
59218 | 2015-01-16 | 2017-01-01 | woodse | 2 | Right | by 2017 at least 8 states will have legalized recreational use of marijuana. |
59219 | 2015-01-16 | 2015-01-16 | woodse | 1 | Wrong | A god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon. |
59220 | 2015-01-16 | 2015-01-20 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | I will see Ben S on Monday. |
59320 | 2015-01-16 | 2015-01-17 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Pistons will beat/draw against Pacers |
59402 | 2015-01-16 | 2015-01-20 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | PJ will contact me for billing info. |
59403 | 2015-01-16 | 2015-03-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | We'll end up paying extra for going over views limit. |
59654 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-01-17 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | David Cameron was born in 1967 or later |
59655 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-02-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | I will think I've received some notable bit of 'positive' evidence that FMK is a bad idea by Monday 16th February. (FPP) |
59656 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-02-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I will endorse the proposition that there was an R-'caused' F thing that felt like it was probably an Incident/Not Good between now and 06:00 Monday 16th February. (FPP) |
59657 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-01-24 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | HW until I go to Po's |
59658 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-01-24 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | Will go past admission at Po's on 23rd/24th night |
59662 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-06-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | FC other than x before 07:00 Monday 1st June 2015 |
59663 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-06-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Some set of scales plausibly says my mass is <=70kg at any time by 05:00 on Monday 1st June 2015 |
59664 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-02-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I finish Computability & Logic or decide to move on to a later text from the list by 06:00 on Monday 2nd February |
59665 | 2015-01-17 | 2015-02-04 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I will be in London before my first lecture of Semester 2 |
59723 | 2015-01-18 | 2015-03-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | I get a response from E, and the response is favorable. |
59724 | 2015-01-18 | 2015-06-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | E hires me. |
59814 | 2015-01-18 | 2015-01-19 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Pelicans will beat/draw against Raptors |
60097 | 2015-01-19 | 2015-01-20 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | CBAB has a recollection of eating something in BK |
60098 | 2015-01-19 | 2015-02-19 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | NC whilst still 20 |
60099 | 2015-01-19 | 2015-02-19 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | KC whilst still 20 |
60100 | 2015-01-19 | 2015-02-19 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | FC whilst still 20 |
60101 | 2015-01-19 | 2015-01-19 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | HW by 11:55 today |
60102 | 2015-01-19 | 2015-01-20 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | B will contact me without prompting. |
60152 | 2015-01-19 | 2015-01-21 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Right | Spurs will beat/draw against Nuggets |
60302 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-01-20 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | Rochdale is further north than Chesterfield |
60324 | 2015-01-20 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | The lack of magical twins in the School in Magic series will end up being a plot point in the next book. |
60325 | 2015-01-20 | 2019-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 8 | Wrong | Russia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018. |
60326 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-01-22 | sweeneyrod | 2 | Wrong | Heat will beat/draw against Hornets |
60327 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-01-21 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | There will be free avocados today. |
60328 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-01-21 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Someone got the sink fixed. |
60329 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-01-21 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | The sushi I like will be stocked today. |
60330 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-01-20 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | SR made PR about B |
60331 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-01-20 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | HW by 23:55 |
60332 | 2015-01-20 | 2015-03-16 | Ruthie | 3 | | I will find a job before March 15th 2015 |
60588 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Vacation predictions: I will get sick from the food or water. |
60589 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Vacation predictions: Sam will get sick from the food or water. |
60590 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-02 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Vacation predictions: We will miss our connecting flight. |
60591 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Vacation predictions: Sam will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. |
60592 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Vacation predictions: I will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. |
60593 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Vacation predictions: I will see at least one band playing Merengue music. |
60594 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Vacation predictions: The cat will die while we're gone. |
60595 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Vacation predictions: Something will get stolen. |
60596 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Vacation predictions: The power will go down at least once. |
60597 | 2015-01-21 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Vacation predictions: I will forget to pack something important. |
60743 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-24 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Hornets will beat/draw against Cavaliers |
60765 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-23 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | M KC N |
60767 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-23 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | M FC N |
60881 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-02-03 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I go to a west country LW meetup before my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two |
60882 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | A or P at P with retroactive >=90% probability |
60883 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | S or G at P as confirmed by speaking |
60884 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | One new-to-me chapter of Bleach out |
60885 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Zero new-to-me chapters of Bleach out |
60886 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Two new-to-me chapters of Bleach out |
60887 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-02-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | HPMoR: Chapter 103 posted by midnight ending January 28th 2015 Berkeley time |
60888 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-02-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | HPMoR: Chapter 104 posted by midnight ending February 15th Berkeley time. |
60889 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-02-03 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I believe house/flat broadly sorted for next year by my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two |
60890 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | That's All is in the book |
60891 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-27 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Will believe SG was at P with prob >= 90% after usual checks |
60892 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Conditional on credible source, David Belle >= 40 years old in common parlance |
60893 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on credible source, JME inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance |
60894 | 2015-01-22 | 2015-01-22 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Conditional on credible source, Skepta inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance |
61156 | 2015-01-24 | 2018-01-23 | kjaques | 2 | Wrong | Dr. Bob says closing stock price of CPG - $37.50 or higher, 75% sure based on predictions of oil. I'm more than that sure just based on inflation and basic economic growth. |
61157 | 2015-01-24 | 2018-01-23 | kjaques | 1 | Wrong | Dr Bob predicts, based on oil industry, certainty of 75%, that BNE will be $50 or higher on the TSE |
61373 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-03-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | CBP sighted at fewest one lecture for at fewest four of my courses |
61374 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-01-26 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on me getting a response from FMK, the response is positive in my eyes |
61375 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-01-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Heart of Darkness in library |
61376 | 2015-01-25 | 2016-07-21 | Faceh | 9 | Wrong | Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season |
61421 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-03-16 | claz | 2 | Wrong | HP MOR : the bargain between Voldemort and Lily Potter on the night of his demise is actually a magical ritual which will prevent Voldemort from killing harry |
61422 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-03-16 | claz | 3 | | HP MOR : The source of magic stores "souls" (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them |
61428 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-01-27 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Someone will leave early on Mon for snow-related reasons. |
61429 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-01-28 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | I'll work from home on Tues. |
61430 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-02-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | J will comment on status. |
61431 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-01-26 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | When I wake up tomorrow I will still have hands. |
61432 | 2015-01-25 | 2015-01-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | We will meet about performance eval sometime this week. |
61603 | 2015-01-26 | 2015-01-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Knicks will beat/draw against Kings |
61604 | 2015-01-26 | 2015-01-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Thunder will beat/draw against Timberwolves |
61605 | 2015-01-26 | 2015-01-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | Magic will beat/draw against Grizzlies |
61606 | 2015-01-26 | 2015-01-27 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Pelicans will beat/draw against 76ers |
61876 | 2015-01-28 | 2015-01-28 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | J will go to work tomorrow. |
62446 | 2015-01-29 | 2021-01-02 | benwr | 7 | | "People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) |
62499 | 2015-01-29 | 2015-01-30 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | It will work on Sam's computer. |
62795 | 2015-01-30 | 2015-01-30 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | BOTH will have accepted my friend request by the end of the day |
63161 | 2015-01-31 | 2015-05-08 | doxievee | 4 | Wrong | Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; however, it will be possible for two parties combined to hold a majority. |
63162 | 2015-01-31 | 2015-05-08 | doxievee | 8 | Right | Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. |
63163 | 2015-02-01 | 2015-04-01 | doxievee | 7 | Right | Islamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory). |
63216 | 2015-02-01 | 2016-01-01 | doxievee | 4 | Right | The four main supermarket chains of the United Kingdom (Tesco, Asda, Morrison's and Sainsbury's) will all be solvent by the end of 2015. |
63217 | 2015-02-01 | 2015-05-08 | doxievee | 6 | Wrong | The televised debates between party leaders proposed by the major broadcasters of the United Kingdom in the run-up to the 2015 general election will not happen. |
63349 | 2015-02-01 | 2015-02-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I go to watch the Superbowl |
63749 | 2015-02-02 | 2015-03-02 | Calien | 1 | Wrong | I will download 2-10 Android apps in the next month. |
63750 | 2015-02-02 | 2015-03-02 | Calien | 1 | Wrong | I will download 3-6 Android apps in the next month. |
63751 | 2015-02-02 | 2015-03-02 | Calien | 1 | Withdrawn | Another cup will get broken in the next month. |
64200 | 2015-02-03 | 2015-02-08 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | We will see Marcos again. |
64201 | 2015-02-03 | 2015-02-04 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Sam will go out tonight. |
65331 | 2015-02-07 | 2015-04-01 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will overtake J in Duolingo points by the end of March. |
65384 | 2015-02-07 | 2015-02-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | P guy added F FB |
65385 | 2015-02-07 | 2015-02-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | That subreddit exists |
65386 | 2015-02-07 | 2015-02-11 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | G joins in at swing on Tuesday 10th February 2015. |
65634 | 2015-02-08 | 2015-02-10 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Before 9am Monday there will be an email about someone working from home due to snow. |
65635 | 2015-02-08 | 2015-02-20 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | I will have symptoms of Y between Feb 12 and Feb 19. |
65638 | 2015-02-08 | 2015-02-10 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Tomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow, and I will receive a discount as a result. |
65639 | 2015-02-08 | 2015-02-10 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | MIT will be closed on Monday. |
65659 | 2015-02-08 | 2015-06-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Someone in FM does the M1 exam this year. |
65690 | 2015-02-09 | 2036-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | | By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. |
65693 | 2015-02-09 | 2015-02-09 | Taymon | 2 | Wrong | WPI will announce a cancellation of classes due to weather before noon today. |
65878 | 2015-02-09 | 2015-02-11 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | MIT will be closed on Tuesday. |
65885 | 2015-02-10 | 2015-04-01 | Capla | 1 | Withdrawn | Given that I do not contact her first (between now and then), Jacquelyn K. will not contact me before April 1st, 2015. |
65886 | 2015-02-10 | 2015-02-12 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | MIT will be closed Wednesday. |
65887 | 2015-02-10 | 2015-02-10 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | By 10am tomorrow I will no longer be locked out of openVPN. |
66007 | 2015-02-10 | 2016-02-01 | rebellionkid | 4 | Wrong | The standard unemployment rate will be below 5% by January 2016. |
66008 | 2015-02-10 | 2016-02-10 | rebellionkid | 3 | | U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. |
66009 | 2015-02-10 | 2020-01-01 | rebellionkid | 3 | Right | Labor force participation rate will hit below 62% this decade. |
66224 | 2015-02-11 | 2015-02-12 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | P will be there before I arrive. |
66485 | 2015-02-12 | 2015-04-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get into the UNIQ summer school for Maths. |
66486 | 2015-02-12 | 2015-02-22 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | Sunderland will beat/draw against West Brom |
66704 | 2015-02-13 | 2015-03-26 | JoshuaZ | 10 | Wrong | It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold |
66890 | 2015-02-15 | 2015-02-15 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | >20 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. |
66891 | 2015-02-15 | 2015-02-15 | kuttypa | 1 | | Moving ahead |
66987 | 2015-02-16 | 2015-02-23 | azax1 | 1 | Right | The Emory REU will reject me. |
67077 | 2015-02-16 | 2015-03-14 | Faceh | 9 | Wrong | HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 - conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. |
67078 | 2015-02-16 | 2015-03-14 | Faceh | 5 | Right | HPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions. |
67182 | 2015-02-17 | 2015-03-01 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 0 < Feb R =< 5k |
67183 | 2015-02-17 | 2015-03-01 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 5k < Feb R =< 10k |
67184 | 2015-02-17 | 2015-03-01 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | Feb R > 10k |
67250 | 2015-02-17 | 2015-03-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | T FB |
67251 | 2015-02-17 | 2015-06-01 | rebellionkid | 5 | Wrong | On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party |
67632 | 2015-02-20 | 2015-02-20 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | A serves F BK |
67633 | 2015-02-20 | 2015-02-20 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | BK does hot chocolate |
67634 | 2015-02-20 | 2015-02-20 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | FMK confirms pre 5 weeks wrt dd |
67635 | 2015-02-20 | 2015-02-20 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 3 | Wrong | It's in that PS episode |
67659 | 2015-02-21 | 2015-03-07 | linkhyrule5 | 13 | Wrong | HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. |
68101 | 2015-02-23 | 2030-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 7 | Right | By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. |
68175 | 2015-02-24 | 2015-02-26 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | At Wednesday's eye appointment it will be determined that I need a stronger prescription. |
68176 | 2015-02-24 | 2015-05-02 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | I have at least 1 cavity. |
68177 | 2015-02-24 | 2015-02-25 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Someone will compliment my outfit tomorrow. |
68181 | 2015-02-24 | 2015-04-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | I will get sick sometime in March. |
68182 | 2015-02-24 | 2015-02-26 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | The 11th floor faucet has been fixed. |
68458 | 2015-02-25 | 2015-03-14 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. |
68459 | 2015-02-25 | 2016-01-01 | Alex Willmer | 3 | Wrong | In 2015 Go will become a supported development language for Android |
68472 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Jasper Benincasa died at conventional age of 93 or more |
68473 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | An Academy Award was awarded for Let It Go |
68474 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Ill Manors won a Mercury Prize (of some sort if applicable) |
68475 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Protein and carbs both give 2 kcal/g to nearest whole number in opening section of Wikipedia Food Energy article |
68476 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Kano conventionally 30 years old or more |
68477 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Naruto ended at chapter 700 (as opposed to 500, 600, 800, etc.) |
68478 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Kurt Geiger was born conventional 50 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1965). |
68479 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Kurt Geiger was born conventional 60 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1955). |
68519 | 2015-02-26 | 2045-01-01 | Mati | 1 | | The first full body transplantation of a human will have been successfully done before 2045. |
68809 | 2015-02-28 | 2015-03-15 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | HPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary). |
69019 | 2015-03-01 | 2017-03-01 | rebellionkid | 1 | Right | Congress passes a substantial repeal of Obamacare in the next 5 years |
69048 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-06-07 | TheEconomistofVengeance | 4 | Wrong | I will have completed the first draft of my novel by June 7, 2015, my 58th birthday. |
69060 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-03 | dain | 3 | Wrong | [HPMOR Ch. 114] Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story. |
69061 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-03 | dain | 3 | Right | [HPMOR, Ch. 114] The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration |
69062 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-03 | dain | 3 | Wrong | [HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution involves time travel |
69063 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-03 | dain | 4 | Wrong | [HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no "brute force" transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction) |
69523 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | That FB notification is that |
69524 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Tom Odell between 27 and 33 conventional years of age inclusive |
69525 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Obama six foot or taller |
69526 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | There's a dance sequence in the Savoy Ballroom in that Malcolm X film, conditional on that film existing as I think it does |
69527 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | David Cameron has unambiguously brown eyes |
69528 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | | Gordon Brown has unambiguously brown eyes |
69529 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Conditional on figure being given on UK website, 200 or less calories in medium Maccy D's fries |
69530 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Big Mac + medium fries + medium diet coke has <1000 kcal conditional on figure given on UK website |
69534 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Stevie Wonder born in New York state |
69535 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | (Abraham Lincoln born in then-Illinois) or (Abraham Lincoln born in place in now-Illinois) |
69536 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-04-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | A video is uploaded to /user/SenpaiKush which has upload date lying in March 2015 |
69537 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | The swastika on Ichigo's original bankai is opposite-facing to the Nazi one, conditional on orientation not seeming obviously inconsistent when checking |
69538 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Neji swastika is left-facing |
69539 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Amaterasu, Susasnoo, Tsukuyomi siblings |
69540 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | As was on Songs in the Key of Life |
69541 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Up to capitalization, punctuation, and number of 'l's (letter 12 of 26) in 'fulfillingness', there is a track called "They Won't Go When I Go" on an album called "Fulfillingness' First Finale" |
69542 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-09-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Right | I will get my full deposit back from my current landlord |
69543 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Nationalities associated with top ten IAAF-sanctioned human marathon performances as given on Wikipedia, conditional on this or similar being given, are all Kenya or Ethiopia |
69544 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | University was founded in or after 1960 |
69545 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I will test the appropriate n-rep maxima for all the Ice Cream exercises I can do this for at the gym by 11:00 (in about six hours) |
69546 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Bruce Lee died at conventional age 29, 30, or 31 |
69547 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty |
69548 | 2015-03-05 | 2015-03-05 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty-one |
70210 | 2015-03-06 | 2015-03-07 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I see S at P |
70443 | 2015-03-07 | 2015-03-18 | Rigulel | 3 | Wrong | Israeli Election: Zionist Union will get more votes than Likud |
72549 | 2015-03-13 | 2015-03-14 | Capla | 3 | Wrong | The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people. |
72550 | 2015-03-13 | 2015-06-01 | rebellionkid | 2 | Wrong | A party not in the government is whipped to back or abstain on the first Queens Speech of next parliament |
72836 | 2015-03-14 | 2015-03-14 | Zebranky | 3 | Wrong | HPMOR Chapter 122 will have over 18,000 words. |
74233 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters |
74234 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | R does 5th |
74235 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | CJ or HM or JB at P |
74236 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | It was from that person |
74237 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke website |
74238 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as featured or main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke |
74239 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | F accepts L Friend Request by the midnight ending Sunday, conditional on it being sent as claimed |
74240 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-21 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | He doesn't take any of that lecture, conditional on eclipse roughly as described, as agreed by prediction setters |
74241 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P |
74242 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | DMT read first 99 chapters of HPMoR or said they had caught it up |
74243 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I'll catch that train |
74244 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Meet up with G on that day |
74245 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-28 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I go to RDT birthday pre-drinks |
74248 | 2015-03-17 | 2015-03-17 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | 'Today', I do gym and track stuff then my first BK of the day |
76589 | 2015-03-21 | 2015-03-26 | Rowan93 | 1 | Right | The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its "Pack Animal For Everyone" stretch goal of 14,500 backers |
77202 | 2015-03-22 | 2015-03-22 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | The Coop was open |
77203 | 2015-03-22 | 2015-03-23 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | I go to the Mark Drama on 23/03/15 |
77204 | 2015-03-22 | 2015-03-24 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | I go to the Debating meal on 24/03/15 |
78554 | 2015-03-25 | 2020-01-01 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 |
78556 | 2015-03-25 | 2020-01-01 | RandomThinker | 5 | Right | Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 |
80981 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | 7 mins to get there as measured by first of touching CC or F or getting to top of those stairs by 7m55s |
80993 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | In the first karaoke artist book I check, there will be no Mumford & Sons tracks in the obvious place |
80994 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | It's now between 23:15 and 23:45 on my phone |
80995 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I take it back to the house |
80996 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | R does M K 26th |
80997 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | R has been told by 05:00 'Friday' he's the M K person |
80998 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | They catch the bus |
80999 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | No Church in the Wild on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue |
81000 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Action Ronson - Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue now |
81001 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-05-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 3 | Wrong | Action Ronson – Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue by 2nd May 2015 or thereabouts (conditional on checking 'thereabouts' as judged by me) |
81002 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | CoD: MW3 Survival: That truck on Fallen blows up |
81003 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Malcolm X was murdered, and died from (in part or otherwise) gunshot wound |
81004 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | 2pac died between 25 and 35 conventional years of age |
81005 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | 2pac died between 30 and 34 conventional years of age, inclusive |
81031 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Nina Simone's birthday was May 10th |
81032 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Nina Simone's birthday was May 11th |
81033 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | 10 the other |
81034 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | 11 the other |
81035 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 4/10 |
81036 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 5/10 |
81037 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 6/10 |
81038 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-03-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 7/10 |
81118 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-05-07 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | UKIP will have more seats than the Liberal Democrats following the next UK general election |
81119 | 2015-03-30 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will have a credence greater than 50% that the Everett interpretation of QM is true. |
81486 | 2015-03-31 | 2015-03-31 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 5 | Wrong | Based on age, Otis Redding died from heart condition |
81487 | 2015-03-31 | 2015-03-31 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 3 | Wrong | Based on age, Otis Redding was murdered |
81488 | 2015-03-31 | 2015-03-31 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 3 | Wrong | Based on age, Otis Redding killed by cancer |
81489 | 2015-03-31 | 2015-03-31 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Based on age, Otis Redding committed suicide (might be hard to judge; prepare to leave Unknown) |
82340 | 2015-04-02 | 2015-04-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2b real, conditional on exactly one real |
82341 | 2015-04-02 | 2015-04-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2c real, conditional on exactly one real |
82344 | 2015-04-02 | 2015-04-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3b real, conditional on exactly one real |
82345 | 2015-04-02 | 2015-04-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3c real, conditional on exactly one real |
82664 | 2015-04-03 | 2015-04-05 | rebellionkid | 1 | Right | /r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 4th/5th April |
83137 | 2015-04-04 | 2015-04-04 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | R says that A of A&P is a wrap up job |
83420 | 2015-04-04 | 2015-04-06 | Capla | 2 | Right | There will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. |
84382 | 2015-04-06 | 2015-05-25 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Right | My achilles will be better (able to run) within 7 more weeks. |
84383 | 2015-04-06 | 2015-04-07 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | Wisconsin will beat Duke |
85104 | 2015-04-07 | 2015-09-04 | RoryS | 1 | Right | Molly will be with Felix when I arrive |
85611 | 2015-04-09 | 2020-01-01 | jesselevine | 2 | | There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR) |
85624 | 2015-04-09 | 2024-01-01 | jesselevine | 4 | | At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 |
86499 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-11-04 | RoryS | 1 | Right | I will be on time to meet Nathan tomorrow |
86500 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-11-04 | RoryS | 1 | Right | I will see Ryan tomorrow |
86501 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-11-04 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will not run into Kat tomorrow |
87032 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-04-12 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | The Facebook message will be from Ryan |
87033 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-04-12 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | The Facebook message will be from Kat |
87036 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-11-05 | RoryS | 1 | Right | My next Facebook notification will be from a group |
87037 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-04-12 | Porejide | 1 | Wrong | We will "win" Escape the Room tonight. |
87040 | 2015-04-11 | 2015-05-21 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | My hair will be complimented next time I go clubbing |
87302 | 2015-04-12 | 2015-04-12 | RoryS | 1 | Right | Chelsea will beat QPR |
87303 | 2015-04-12 | 2015-04-12 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | QPR will beat Chelsea |
87578 | 2015-04-13 | 2100-01-01 | jesselevine | 4 | | Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. |
87579 | 2015-04-13 | 2030-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 8 | | By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke |
88248 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-14 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | I will sit next to FMK in topology |
88249 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-20 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | FMK will talk to me by or on 19/04 |
88250 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-27 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | FMK will talk to me by or on 26/04 |
88251 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-05-04 | qwerty314 | 1 | Wrong | FMK will talk to me by or on 03/05 |
88491 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-16 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | My parents will complain about me not having a job at any moment in the next 24 hours. |
88492 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | I think for dinner tomorrow I will have my Mediterranean Rice. |
88493 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | I will wake up at anywhere between 11:20 and 11:30 today in the morning. |
88494 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 3 | Right | That when I wake up Earth will still exist. |
88495 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | I will get a girlfriend in the next 24 hours. |
88496 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-19 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | I will be able to code a Random Name Generator by the end of the week. |
88497 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | I will find Rory's next sexual partner attractive. |
88498 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-30 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | My calibration will be better than Rory's. |
88499 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-30 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I would have made over 100 predictions by the end of this month. |
88500 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-06-15 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will have sex in Sasha's room |
88501 | 2015-04-14 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will decide on MIRI as a charity that I donate a proportion of my donation money to. |
88712 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Based on age, Jacqueline Susann died from chronic or acute substance abuse, ingestion, or similar, according to Wikipedia |
88713 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 4 | Wrong | Based on age, Jacqueline Susann died from heart problem not immediately due to ingestion, according to Wikipedia |
88714 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 3 | Right | Based on age, Jacqueline Susann died from cancer, according to Wikipedia |
88814 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | I will get heads on my next coin flip. |
88815 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I will not receive a response from a job application at all today. |
88816 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | I can drink 3 glasses of water in less than 15 seconds. |
88817 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I will win my next Pokémon battle. (Against players). |
88818 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | When I check BBC weather the temperature for today will be anywhere between 20-22c. (In Plymouth). |
88824 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I can hold my breath for longer than 30 seconds. |
88825 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I can type more than 70 words per minute. |
88826 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I can do more than 120 clicks a minute. |
88827 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I can do 22 sit ups in 30 seconds. |
88830 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | I have made a list of 30 words (No longer than 5 characters). I have 2 minutes to memorise as many as I can. I think I can memorise at least 18. I have 2 minutes to write down as many as I can. |
88831 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-16 | RoryS | 1 | Right | The muesli will be good |
88846 | 2015-04-15 | 2050-01-01 | PseudonymousUser | 3 | | By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind. |
88854 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | Ryan will send me a YouTube Video at some point before today ends. |
88855 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | Hema will insult me in some way before today ends. |
88856 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Withdrawn | I will feel sad at the end of today because my three major private predictions will not happen. |
88858 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | On my way to the shops I will encounter nobody I know. |
88875 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-15 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | When I click on my YouTube tab, the song will be at 1:04. |
88878 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-04-16 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | Star Horn Royal Club will beat (absolutely destroy) Young Glory in the LCS |
89388 | 2015-04-15 | 2015-11-30 | PseudonymousUser | 5 | Wrong | I will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5. |
89460 | 2015-04-16 | 2016-01-01 | VoidChronos | 2 | Wrong | Blizzard will release Hearthstone to the consoles this year. |
89575 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is King Kunta |
89576 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Institutionalized |
89577 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is These Walls |
89578 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is u |
89579 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Alright |
89580 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is For Sale? (Interlude) |
89583 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 3 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Hood Politics |
89584 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is How Much A Dollar Cost |
89585 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Complexion (A Zulu Love) |
89586 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is The Blacker the Berry |
89587 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is You Ain't Gotta Lie (Momma Said) |
89588 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is i |
89589 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Mortal Man |
89590 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is exactly one of the 16 in that article or where it's referring to, assuming an answer or link or so forth is given |
89591 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Kanye |
89592 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 3 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Eminem |
89593 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Earl Sweatshirt |
89594 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Tyler, the Creator |
89595 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Jay Z |
89596 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is A$AP Rocky |
89597 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Childish Gambino |
89598 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Drake |
89599 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Ty Dolla $ign |
89638 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | S sighted by me or R crossing the threshold of or loitering outside of M given R puts 20% |
89639 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | Adam at M |
89640 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | L seen at M |
89641 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | L seen at M given R puts 83% |
89642 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I see a GE committee member at M |
89643 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Me or R go(es) into McDonald's after M w/c 2015-04-06 |
89644 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | That 100m I did was strictly under 15.00s |
89645 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | That 100m I did was strictly under 13.50s |
89646 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | That 100m I did was strictly under 13.00s |
89647 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | CC gets her number today and didn't have it before today |
89680 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | My 100m was strictly below 12.80s |
89722 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | I will have a negative KDA in my next League of Legends match. |
89723 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | I will lose my lane in this game, even though I counter my opponent. |
89828 | 2015-04-16 | 2016-09-01 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Right | Hillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia. |
89829 | 2015-04-16 | 2016-09-01 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton chooses Sherrod Brown as running mate. |
89830 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-08-30 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Right | "No Award" sweeps the Hugos this year. |
89831 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-08-30 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Right | "No Award" takes at least one Hugo category this year. |
89853 | 2015-04-16 | 2015-04-16 | RoryS | 1 | Right | I can do 20 sit ups in 30 seconds |
90497 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-06 | RoryS | 2 | Right | I will meet up with Felix in London prior to exams |
90498 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-04-17 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | CBAB doesn't respond on Facebook by the end of the day |
90813 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-04-17 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | I will die at least once in this BGO game. |
90814 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Hawks beat the Nets |
90815 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-04-17 | RoryS | 3 | Withdrawn | We will this game on BGO |
90816 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Cavs beat the Celtics |
90817 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Bulls beat the Bucks |
90818 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-12-31 | PseudonymousUser | 4 | Wrong | I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). |
90819 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Wizards beat the Raptors |
90820 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Warriors beat the Pelicans |
90821 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Rockets beat the Mavs |
90822 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | Spurs beat the Clippers |
90823 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-05-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Grizzlies beat the Blazers |
90865 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-04-18 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | Someone will leave this game |
90866 | 2015-04-17 | 2015-04-18 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will finish ahead of Nathan in this game of BGO (excluding premature departure) |
91098 | 2015-04-18 | 2016-11-08 | FractalHeretic | 7 | Wrong | At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. |
91278 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-04-19 | RoryS | 1 | Right | If I use mussels tonight, I will successfully incorporate them into a good tasting meal |
91279 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | I will become sympathetic to mainstream analytic metaphysics by the end of the year |
91323 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-04-18 | Hurzek | 1 | Right | I will finish all of my abnormal Psychology notes by the end of the day. |
91343 | 2015-04-18 | 2016-09-16 | Hurzek | 2 | | I'll get into an American University next year. |
91356 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-06-10 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will start blogging after exams |
91772 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | I will become convinced enough by neoreactionary arguments that, at the end of the year, it would not be clearly mistaken for someone to label me a 'neoreactionary', regardless of whether I personally self-identify as one. |
91773 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 1 | Right | I will still self-identify as an effective altruist at the end of this year |
91774 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 2 | Right | My diet will still be vegan or bivalvegan at the end of this year |
91796 | 2015-04-18 | 2016-01-01 | RoryS | 3 | Wrong | I will find deontology convincing as a moral theory at the end of the year. |
91818 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-04-21 | RoryS | 1 | Withdrawn | If I decide to go, I will find Emily Skarbek's lecture on feminism and the free market interesting |
91819 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-04-19 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Someone will ask about packing tomorrow |
91820 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-04-30 | OisinMoran | 5 | Right | Tesla motors' next product release will be a home battery |
91821 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 1 | Withdrawn | My view of truth will be closer to that of Rorty-James style pragmatism than Blackburn-Price style pragmatism by the end of the year |
91822 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-06-10 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | A will make a move on me before I leave London this year |
91823 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-06-10 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | I will end up sleeping at A, B, and C's house before leaving London |
91824 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-06-10 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | I will end up at D's house before I leave London |
91825 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-04-19 | RoryS | 2 | Right | Everyone will have awoken by the time I get out of bed tomorrow |
91830 | 2015-04-18 | 2015-04-19 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Dad will be in when I wake up |
91831 | 2015-04-19 | 2015-04-19 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Wrong | I will accidentally kill Rory in this BGO game... |
91832 | 2015-04-19 | 2015-04-19 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | We will win this BGO game. |
91833 | 2015-04-19 | 2015-04-19 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | I will get a double dice roll at least once in this BGO game. |
91834 | 2015-04-19 | 2015-04-19 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | I will die at least once in this BGO game. |
91835 | 2015-04-19 | 2015-04-19 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | I will get over 100 rupees in this BGO game. |
92190 | 2015-04-19 | 2030-01-01 | jasticE | 6 | | Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 |
93045 | 2015-04-19 | 2015-04-21 | RoryS | 1 | Right | I will go out when I get back on Monday |
93046 | 2015-04-19 | 2015-06-10 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will get someone's number through meeting them in a bookshop before I leave London |
94127 | 2015-04-20 | 2015-04-21 | RoryS | 1 | Right | The first train when I'm next travelling back from Canada Water will go straight where I want it to go |
94275 | 2015-04-20 | 2015-04-22 | qwerty314 | 4 | Wrong | I get a fine of £100 or greater at the disciplinary meeting |
94276 | 2015-04-20 | 2015-04-21 | qwerty314 | 3 | Wrong | I get a fine of £200 or greater at the disciplinary meeting |
94277 | 2015-04-20 | 2015-04-21 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | I get a fine of £250 at the disciplinary meeting |
94278 | 2015-04-20 | 2015-04-21 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | I will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting |
94279 | 2015-04-20 | 2015-04-21 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | They make a recommendation to the university secretary that the case is heard be the vice chancellor |
95998 | 2015-04-22 | 2015-04-22 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | I will end up going out tonight |
95999 | 2015-04-22 | 2015-05-16 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | The frequency of my urination will be back to normal in a month's time |
96000 | 2015-04-22 | 2021-09-22 | RoryS | 2 | | I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course) |
96177 | 2015-04-23 | 2015-08-01 | jesselevine | 3 | Wrong | I will complete summer physics ii and chemistry courses with nothing lower than an A- |
96178 | 2015-04-23 | 2015-04-30 | jesselevine | 2 | Right | DN will relapse and continue to smoke tobacco within a week |
96729 | 2015-04-23 | 2016-06-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | I will have at least three more papers published by June of 2016 |
96812 | 2015-04-23 | 2100-01-01 | jesselevine | 1 | | I will live longer than JoshuaZ |
97943 | 2015-04-24 | 2015-05-13 | Andrew MacFie | 1 | Wrong | Real Madrid will advance to the finals of the 2015 Champions League |
97944 | 2015-04-24 | 2015-06-06 | Andrew MacFie | 5 | Wrong | Juventus will win the 2015 Champions League |
97945 | 2015-04-24 | 2015-06-06 | Andrew MacFie | 3 | Wrong | Bayern Munich will win the 2015 Champions League |
97946 | 2015-04-24 | 2015-06-06 | Andrew MacFie | 6 | Right | Barcelona will win the 2015 Champions League |
97947 | 2015-04-24 | 2015-06-06 | Andrew MacFie | 2 | Wrong | Real Madrid will win the 2015 Champions League |
97948 | 2015-04-24 | 2015-04-25 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | H.A. will not schedule the test today. |
97970 | 2015-04-24 | 2030-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 12 | | By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. |
97971 | 2015-04-24 | 2015-05-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 1 | Wrong | I will get hired as a full employee (non-contractor) by a software company within a week from now. |
98767 | 2015-04-25 | 2015-04-26 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | I will do at least 40 pushups today |
98768 | 2015-04-25 | 2045-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | | Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. |
99732 | 2015-04-26 | 2015-04-26 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | The temperature for today, when I check BBC weather, will be around 17-18c. |
99733 | 2015-04-26 | 2015-04-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | That Friend Request is from Toaff |
99734 | 2015-04-26 | 2015-04-26 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | Roman will be on league of legends when I log in. |
99735 | 2015-04-26 | 2015-04-26 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Fiona Apple - Paper Bag on Sunfly karaoke website catalogue |
99736 | 2015-04-26 | 2016-11-10 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | In the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate. |
99826 | 2015-04-26 | 2015-04-28 | RoryS | 2 | Right | Upon telling the next group of friends I meet in person, they will find it appropriate, or not incongruent with my general persona, why I've been labelled a 'guilty crush'. |
99827 | 2015-04-26 | 2015-05-03 | RoryS | 5 | Right | I will get the number of the next person I approach |
100011 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-27 | PseudonymousUser | 3 | Right | I will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today! |
100012 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-27 | RoryS | 1 | Right | My money will come through by the end of tomorrow |
100347 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-27 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | A's song is Billionaire |
100348 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-27 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | I will get the lane I want in the next game of league. |
100349 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-27 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | I will beat my lane opponent in this game of league. |
100350 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-27 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | We will win this game of league. |
100499 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-28 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cookie sandwiches tomorrow |
100500 | 2015-04-27 | 2015-04-27 | TheBlackFox | 1 | Right | that is a guy |
100575 | 2015-04-27 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | By 2020, at least 25% of colleges in the US in 2015 will be bankrupt or otherwise defunct. |
101536 | 2015-04-28 | 2015-10-29 | jesselevine | 3 | Wrong | Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment. |
101769 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I go to M this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday |
101770 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-03 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I go to P this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday |
101771 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-06-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | FC by end of May |
101772 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-06-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | KC by end of May |
101773 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | I finish first read-through of the Topology notes by midnight ending this Friday |
101774 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-04-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Some 2Pac's album listed under the Discography section of his main Wikipedia article is given on its Wikipedia article as having >= 90% on Metacritic (critic rating in marginal case) |
101775 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-04-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | One or more of Abbey Road, White Album, Sgt Pepper has a Metacritic critic score |
101776 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-04-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | He says something along the lines of 'It only takes one to rek me' by 02:00 |
101777 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-04-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | I do my gym and 'track stuff' 2015-04-29 Wednesday |
101782 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-06-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Ginny Weasley and the Sealed Intelligence finished by end of May San Francisco time |
101783 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-04-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Duration of Mortal Man is 14:06 in the music player |
101784 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-04-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Duration of Mortal Man is 14:10 in the music player |
101785 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-04-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | That verse on No Diggity was done by a female MC |
101786 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-02 | azax1 | 2 | Wrong | I won't get the math tutor position. |
101787 | 2015-04-29 | 2016-11-10 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Wrong | Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%.. |
101788 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-14 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | Final grades for my students will be in by May 14 |
101789 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-12 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | Every bonus question on the exam will have at least one student get it right. |
101790 | 2015-04-29 | 2015-05-14 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | No student will get all the bonus questions on the exam. |
103173 | 2015-04-30 | 2015-04-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2001-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date |
103174 | 2015-04-30 | 2015-04-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2002-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date |
103175 | 2015-04-30 | 2015-04-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2003-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date |
103176 | 2015-04-30 | 2015-04-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2004-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date |
103177 | 2015-04-30 | 2015-04-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2005-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date |
103178 | 2015-04-30 | 2015-04-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2006-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date |
104294 | 2015-05-01 | 2016-01-01 | Faceh | 2 | Right | The Bernie Sanders Campaign Subreddit, http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/, will have more than 100,000 subscribers by the end of 2015. |
104485 | 2015-05-01 | 2024-01-01 | aoeu | 1 | | The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024 |
104569 | 2015-05-01 | 2015-05-14 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | Nick Clegg will still be leader of the Lib Dems a week following the UK GE |
104570 | 2015-05-01 | 2015-05-01 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Moises will make a Facebook status with the word 'haha' or some laughter variant before the end of the day |
104571 | 2015-05-01 | 2015-05-02 | RoryS | 2 | Right | I will end up disputing a claim Edmund makes before I go home |
104572 | 2015-05-01 | 2017-01-01 | btrettel | 4 | Wrong | There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016. |
104573 | 2015-05-01 | 2017-01-01 | btrettel | 4 | Right | There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016. |
104574 | 2015-05-01 | 2029-05-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. |
104575 | 2015-05-01 | 2024-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 |
104610 | 2015-05-02 | 2015-05-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Drake 5'8" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus |
104611 | 2015-05-02 | 2015-05-02 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Drake 5'7" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus |
104635 | 2015-05-02 | 2016-07-29 | JoshuaZ | 66 | Wrong | Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. |
104648 | 2015-05-02 | 2015-05-03 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | I will have completed more than 40% of the Python course by the end of today. |
104649 | 2015-05-02 | 2015-05-03 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | I will read some more Less Wrong articles by the end of today. |
104650 | 2015-05-02 | 2015-05-02 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | The temperature for today will be 14-15c when I check BBC weather. |
104651 | 2015-05-02 | 2015-05-02 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | My thread on the League Forums has likely been downvoted. |
104652 | 2015-05-02 | 2016-06-01 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | | I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe). |
104653 | 2015-05-03 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. |
104654 | 2015-05-03 | 2015-05-03 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Area of a regular n-gon is ns^2/(4tan(pi/n)) |
104670 | 2015-05-03 | 2015-05-03 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | That female vocalist on Ab Soul - Double Standards is Anna Wise |
104767 | 2015-05-03 | 2015-05-17 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Right | Warriors beat the Grizzlies |
104809 | 2015-05-03 | 2015-05-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Tim Shieff completes his heat course in Ninja Warrior UK series 1 conditional on him competing |
104810 | 2015-05-03 | 2015-05-30 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Tim Shieff clears the heats of Ninja Warrior UK series 1 (i.e. makes semi-finals direct, by highest-scoring loser, etc.), conditional on him competing |
104811 | 2015-05-04 | 2035-01-01 | jesselevine | 4 | | >50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035 |
104828 | 2015-05-04 | 2015-05-14 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | Of my 140 students, at least 5 students will score above 90% on their Calc I final. |
104914 | 2015-05-04 | 2015-05-18 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Wrong | Clippers beat the Rockets |
104935 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian. |
104936 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday I will be employed and working in a data science-y or programmerish occupation. |
104937 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the US. |
104938 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the greater Boston area. |
104939 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday, Sam will still be alive and I will still be married to him. |
104940 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday, I will have had 4 or more children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). |
104941 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-05-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday, I will have had 3 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). |
104942 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday, I will have had 2 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). |
104945 | 2015-05-04 | 2030-07-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | | On my 40th birthday, I will have had 1 child (excluding offspring from selling eggs). |
105011 | 2015-05-04 | 2015-05-31 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | I will stick to Firefox as my default browser over Chrome. |
105045 | 2015-05-04 | 2017-01-01 | btrettel | 3 | Right | Bicyclist fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 |
105449 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-05-06 | RoryS | 1 | Right | I will arrive at the exam on time tomorrow |
105450 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-05-05 | RoryS | 1 | Right | Juventus will win this game |
105451 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-05-05 | RoryS | 1 | Right | My curry will taste good |
105452 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Ryan and I will write a paper in the next year for the Foundational Research Institute |
105453 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-05-07 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | I will use all the beansprouts I bought before their use-by date |
105524 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-05-05 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Paul is telling the truth |
105525 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-05-05 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | David is telling the truth |
105526 | 2015-05-05 | 2015-05-05 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Lee is telling the truth |
105668 | 2015-05-06 | 2015-05-31 | Pradeep_Kumar | 2 | Wrong | My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day. |
105823 | 2015-05-07 | 2015-05-08 | rebellionkid | 1 | Wrong | The average of the big seat predictions overstates Tory seats |
105960 | 2015-05-08 | 2015-05-09 | rebellionkid | 3 | Right | Tories win >325 seats |
105961 | 2015-05-08 | 2015-05-09 | rebellionkid | 1 | Right | Tories win >316 |
106537 | 2015-05-09 | 2015-05-10 | jesselevine | 1 | Right | My plane will be delayed longer than 30 minutes |
106885 | 2015-05-11 | 2015-05-12 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | Right | I will get attacked on Tera while leveling because people are cunts. |
107034 | 2015-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | In 3 years, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind. |
107040 | 2015-05-13 | 2017-12-27 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Wrong | Bharat will pass the UK on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 5th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2017. |
107041 | 2015-05-13 | 2020-12-27 | Raahul_Kumar | 6 | | Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020. |
107125 | 2015-05-13 | 2015-08-20 | jesselevine | 2 | Wrong | I will be >200 lbs, <13%bf by fall 2015 |
107126 | 2015-05-13 | 2015-06-20 | lumpzy | 4 | Wrong | I will have a 4-6 pack before June 20th |
107127 | 2015-05-13 | 2015-08-28 | lumpzy | 2 | Right | I will weigh more than 200lb before August 28th, 2015 |
108178 | 2015-05-19 | 2016-01-01 | earfluffy | 1 | Withdrawn | Torn Banner Studios will announce their Unreal Engine 4 project before 2016 |
108349 | 2015-05-19 | 2015-05-25 | qwerty314 | 1 | Right | I have a confirmed fractured bone in my hand/wrist by or on 24/05 |
108524 | 2015-05-20 | 2020-01-01 | btrettel | 1 | | Texas irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS |
108585 | 2015-05-20 | 2015-06-04 | RoryS | 3 | Wrong | Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. |
108586 | 2015-05-20 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 2 | Right | I will accidentally buy non-bivalvegan food by the end of the year. |
108587 | 2015-05-20 | 2016-11-12 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Wrong | Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. |
108659 | 2015-05-21 | 2045-02-01 | FarOutFuture1988 | 4 | | The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A. |
109114 | 2015-05-23 | 2015-05-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | | Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand |
109115 | 2015-05-23 | 2015-05-29 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a dislocate in his hand |
109116 | 2015-05-23 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will have read 5 novels by the end of this year |
109206 | 2015-05-23 | 2020-01-01 | btrettel | 1 | | Domestic per capita water use in Texas will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS |
109560 | 2015-05-25 | 2018-11-20 | JoshuaZ | 6 | Right | In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. |
109561 | 2015-05-25 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | US official unemployment rate to remain between 3% and 7.5% through January 1, 2020. |
109605 | 2015-05-25 | 2015-05-25 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | See NB in da house 2 after one round of updating |
110212 | 2015-05-28 | 2015-06-14 | BiasedCalibration | 3 | Wrong | R+L=J to be explicitly referenced on screen by the end of Season 5 of Game of Thrones |
111204 | 2015-06-02 | 2016-07-15 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | New Tau paper to be published by July 15, 2016 |
111703 | 2015-06-03 | 2025-01-01 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | | I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it. |
111704 | 2015-06-03 | 2016-08-02 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | [GoT] R + L = J will be revealed/referenced before the end of season 6. |
111705 | 2015-06-03 | 2030-01-01 | PseudonymousUser | 3 | | Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India. |
111706 | 2015-06-03 | 2015-08-05 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | It'll take me less than two months to learn high school economics and business studies. |
111812 | 2015-06-04 | 2020-06-05 | PseudonymousUser | 2 | | Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now. |
111813 | 2015-06-04 | 2017-06-05 | PseudonymousUser | 3 | Right | I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. |
112259 | 2015-06-05 | 2015-06-10 | RoryS | 1 | Right | My dad will smile when he sees me after coming back home for the summer |
112884 | 2015-06-08 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. |
113483 | 2015-06-11 | 2016-06-16 | ejlflop | 4 | Wrong | My research this summer will result in a published paper |
113484 | 2015-06-11 | 2017-01-01 | ejlflop | 1 | Wrong | I will discover a 16th/17th century composer more avant-garde than M. Rossi or Gesualdo |
113619 | 2015-06-11 | 2025-07-01 | btrettel | 5 | | arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 |
113620 | 2015-06-11 | 2025-07-01 | btrettel | 9 | | The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 |
114017 | 2015-06-13 | 2015-09-13 | splorridge | 4 | Withdrawn | Jeremy Corbyn will be elected Labour leader. This text has a line through it. |
114018 | 2015-06-13 | 2015-09-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | I will weigh 63kg by September |
114019 | 2015-06-13 | 2016-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | I will weigh 64kg by 2016 |
114020 | 2015-06-13 | 2015-06-18 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will get a 2.1 or over in my degree |
114021 | 2015-06-13 | 2015-06-18 | splorridge | 3 | Right | I will get a 1 in my degree |
114022 | 2015-06-13 | 2015-06-16 | theboubmeister | 2 | Right | I will get a first in my degree. |
114023 | 2015-06-13 | 2015-06-13 | Xtobel | 3 | Wrong | I won't be able to finish the whole plate of brunch Sam is cooking for me |
114686 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 11 | Right | North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. |
114687 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 8 | Right | Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. |
114688 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Right | Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. |
114689 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 12 | Right | Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. |
114690 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 12 | Right | No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. |
114691 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Right | Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. |
114692 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Right | Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. |
114693 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 51 | Right | Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. |
114694 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. |
114695 | 2015-06-15 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 10 | Right | ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. |
116281 | 2015-06-20 | 2015-12-31 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | Ryan & I will have an anecdote that is equal to or better than the prostitute story by the end of this year |
116972 | 2015-06-24 | 2016-11-09 | James Babcock | 21 | Right | Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. |
116995 | 2015-06-25 | 2035-12-31 | Afforess | 1 | Withdrawn | Improvements in telecommuting technology (VR, holograms, etc) will lead telecommuters to outnumber commuters in the USA |
116996 | 2015-06-25 | 2015-06-25 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | I will have a new message when I check Facebook |
116997 | 2015-06-25 | 2015-06-25 | RoryS | 1 | Right | Y will be online when I check |
117454 | 2015-06-26 | 2016-01-01 | Madplatypus | 3 | Wrong | Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will die before the end of the year. |
117455 | 2015-06-26 | 2020-01-01 | Madplatypus | 5 | Wrong | Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. |
117957 | 2015-06-30 | 2015-12-31 | aschberg | 1 | | I will have reached over a million dollars by year end. |
118017 | 2015-06-30 | 2016-05-02 | btrettel | 1 | Withdrawn | Conditional on being in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01, a cause will be electronic device use |
118284 | 2015-07-02 | 2015-12-27 | Raahul_Kumar | 11 | Wrong | UK will default on its debt. |
118285 | 2015-07-02 | 2015-12-27 | Raahul_Kumar | 10 | Wrong | France will default on its debt |
118924 | 2015-07-05 | 2015-10-01 | modulus | 11 | Wrong | Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone |
118925 | 2015-07-05 | 2016-01-01 | modulus | 3 | Withdrawn | Given a yes result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone |
119034 | 2015-07-05 | 2015-07-06 | kuudes | 1 | Withdrawn | Greece referendum of 2015-07-05 votes more Yes than No. |
119061 | 2015-07-05 | 2015-12-31 | SalTnutZ1 | 2 | Right | There will be a terrorist attack on US interests in 2015 |
119062 | 2015-07-05 | 2015-12-31 | SalTnutZ1 | 8 | Wrong | Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 |
119063 | 2015-07-05 | 2015-07-05 | SalTnutZ1 | 1 | | Greece exists from the EU |
119064 | 2015-07-05 | 2016-07-05 | Afforess | 11 | Wrong | Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency |
119065 | 2015-07-05 | 2016-03-06 | aarongertler | 1 | Wrong | I will have 100 blog subscribers eight months from now. (aarongertler.net/subscribe) |
119288 | 2015-07-07 | 2016-01-01 | jesselevine | 2 | Right | Mass shooting occurs in the US before year end (>5 deaths or casualties) |
119476 | 2015-07-07 | 2016-11-12 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | The US 2016 Presidential election will occur on its currently scheduled Tuesday date. |
119477 | 2015-07-07 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 12 | Right | By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. |
119478 | 2015-07-07 | 2016-11-11 | JoshuaZ | 18 | Right | The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. |
119479 | 2015-07-07 | 2028-07-08 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | 2048 bit RSA keys to be widely considered to be deprecated by July 7, 2028 |
119480 | 2015-07-07 | 2021-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. |
119481 | 2015-07-07 | 2021-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. |
119482 | 2015-07-07 | 2021-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | As of January 1, 2021, Russia to have second most number of active nuclear powered subs out of any country. |
119483 | 2015-07-07 | 2026-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. |
119537 | 2015-07-08 | 2015-07-10 | taryneast | 1 | Right | The power at my new place will have been swicthed on by Friday |
120019 | 2015-07-09 | 2015-10-27 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Wrong | Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year. |
120021 | 2015-07-09 | 2017-10-27 | Raahul_Kumar | 10 | Wrong | Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. |
120022 | 2015-07-09 | 2017-01-01 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Wrong | Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. |
120372 | 2015-07-10 | 2018-03-16 | InquilineKea | 6 | Right | Jimmy Carter to become the longest-living president in US History |
120373 | 2015-07-10 | 2016-12-31 | InquilineKea | 1 | Wrong | Quora to become top-100 site (measured by Alexa) by the end of 2016 |
120374 | 2015-07-10 | 2016-12-31 | InquilineKea | 1 | | PewDiePie to still be the #1 YouTube celebrity by the end of 2016 |
120375 | 2015-07-10 | 2020-12-31 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020 |
120376 | 2015-07-10 | 2022-09-16 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian |
120377 | 2015-07-10 | 2023-12-16 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian |
120378 | 2015-07-10 | 2025-12-16 | InquilineKea | 2 | | At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025 |
120379 | 2015-07-10 | 2016-12-31 | InquilineKea | 2 | Right | At least one of the Apollo astronauts will die by the end of 2016 |
120380 | 2015-07-10 | 2025-12-31 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Quora will independently survive to 2025 |
120381 | 2015-07-10 | 2020-12-31 | InquilineKea | 38 | | PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 |
120382 | 2015-07-10 | 2019-12-31 | InquilineKea | 6 | Right | Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 |
120408 | 2015-07-10 | 2025-01-01 | silacoid | 2 | | By 2025, at least 30% of new cars sold in Norway will be electric. |
120409 | 2015-07-10 | 2030-01-01 | silacoid | 2 | | By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. |
120556 | 2015-07-10 | 2017-01-02 | InquilineKea | 3 | Right | 2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the entire world (by the time historical records ever began) |
120756 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | gnxp.com to last to 2025 |
120757 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015 |
120758 | 2015-07-11 | 2016-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Right | Steve Huffman will remain as reddit CEO to the end of 2015 |
120759 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 |
120760 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Withdrawn | MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 |
120761 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030 |
120762 | 2015-07-11 | 2016-12-16 | InquilineKea | 1 | Right | Democratic Party will carry Minnesota in 2016 |
120763 | 2015-07-11 | 2016-12-16 | InquilineKea | 1 | Right | Democratic Party will carry Colorado in 2016 |
120764 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Steam to remain as #1 digital distribution platform for gaming by 2025 |
120765 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years |
120766 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 6 | | Google will acquire Quora by 2020 |
120767 | 2015-07-11 | 2019-01-01 | InquilineKea | 6 | Wrong | Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 |
120768 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 |
120769 | 2015-07-11 | 2017-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | 2015-2016 El Nino to be stronger than 1997-1998 El Nino |
120770 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Wolfram Research will last through 2025 |
120783 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Cystic Fibrosis to be a curable illness by 2025 |
120784 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 |
120785 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 |
120786 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 |
120787 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030 |
120788 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030 |
120789 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | 5-MAPB to be researched as a possible treatment for at least one medical condition (autism, anxiety, PTSD, etc) by 2025 |
120790 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 |
120791 | 2015-07-11 | 2036-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | We will reach "longevity escape velocity" by 2035 |
120792 | 2015-07-11 | 2019-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Right | 4chan to remain a top-1000 site by the end of 2018 |
120793 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Runescape will still exist by 2025 |
120794 | 2015-07-11 | 2023-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There will be no paper newspapers left in the US by 2022 (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) |
120795 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Yale to become a top-15 Computer Science program by 2025 |
120796 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020 |
120797 | 2015-07-11 | 2029-06-16 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian |
120798 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 |
120799 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Wrong | Freeman Dyson to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 |
120800 | 2015-07-11 | 2023-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) |
120801 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Jane Goodall to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 |
120822 | 2015-07-11 | 2018-12-16 | InquilineKea | 1 | Wrong | Helmut Schmidt to become a centenarian |
120943 | 2015-07-11 | 2019-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Wrong | Quora to make an independent IPO by 2018 |
120944 | 2015-07-11 | 2029-12-16 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6 |
120961 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Adobe to survive to 2025 |
120962 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Electronic Arts to survive to 2025 |
120963 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030 |
120964 | 2015-07-11 | 2051-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050) |
120965 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Slashdot to exist through 2025 |
120966 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | SomethingAwful to exist through 2025 |
120967 | 2015-07-11 | 2023-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) |
120968 | 2015-07-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) |
120969 | 2015-07-11 | 2029-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 - Clayton Christensen |
120970 | 2015-07-11 | 2020-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | Wrong | 50% of all high school classes in the US to be taught online by 2019 (Clayton Christensen) |
120973 | 2015-07-11 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 12 | | At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 |
120974 | 2015-07-11 | 2036-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian |
120975 | 2015-07-11 | 2033-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | At least one of the Gemini astronauts will become a centenarian |
120976 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-08-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | Wrong | At least one of the Mercury astronauts to become a centenarian |
120977 | 2015-07-11 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | Wrong | John Paul Stevens to become a centenarian |
120982 | 2015-07-11 | 2016-06-30 | BiasedCalibration | 4 | Right | R+L=J to be confirmed during Season 6 of Game of Thrones |
121028 | 2015-07-12 | 2019-01-01 | Madplatypus | 2 | Right | If Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all. |
121029 | 2015-07-12 | 2035-01-01 | Madplatypus | 4 | | The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades. |
121030 | 2015-07-12 | 2015-07-31 | quanticle | 8 | Wrong | Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. |
121031 | 2015-07-12 | 2021-01-01 | Madplatypus | 5 | | There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. |
121032 | 2015-07-12 | 2018-01-01 | Madplatypus | 11 | Wrong | Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. |
121417 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 |
121418 | 2015-07-13 | 2023-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian |
121419 | 2015-07-13 | 2029-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian |
121420 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121421 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 5 | | World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121422 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121423 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121522 | 2015-07-13 | 2045-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | At least one Apollo astronaut to live to see Artificial General Intelligence |
121523 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121524 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121525 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 5 | | LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121526 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121527 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121528 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121529 | 2015-07-13 | 2099-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once) |
121530 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015 |
121531 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030 |
121532 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121533 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121534 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 |
121535 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 |
121536 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 |
121537 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Minneapolis population higher in 2030 than 2010 |
121538 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010 |
121539 | 2015-07-13 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 |
121540 | 2015-07-13 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 |
121541 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121542 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121543 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121544 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121545 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010 |
121546 | 2015-07-13 | 2026-01-16 | InquilineKea | 5 | | Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015 |
121547 | 2015-07-13 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Amphetamines to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 |
121548 | 2015-07-13 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 |
121549 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121550 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Apple to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 |
121551 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 6 | | Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 |
121552 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 |
121553 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 |
121554 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010 |
121555 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 |
121556 | 2015-07-13 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 |
121557 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Microsoft to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 |
121558 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 |
121559 | 2015-07-13 | 2020-07-13 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Yasuhiro Nakasone will become the longest-lived Prime Minister of Japan |
121560 | 2015-07-13 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025 |
121561 | 2015-07-13 | 2024-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Chuck Yeager to become a centenarian |
121562 | 2015-07-13 | 2024-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Lee Teng-Hui to become a centenarian |
121563 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Vine to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
121564 | 2015-07-13 | 2035-01-16 | InquilineKea | 2 | | At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars |
121565 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-16 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020 |
121566 | 2015-07-13 | 2021-01-16 | InquilineKea | 7 | | Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015 |
121743 | 2015-07-14 | 2016-07-20 | JoshuaZ | 88 | Right | Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. |
122022 | 2015-07-14 | 2016-07-14 | RoryS | 1 | | I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton |
122374 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 |
122375 | 2015-07-15 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Voyager 1 to outlast the Mars Curiosity rover |
122376 | 2015-07-15 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Withdrawn | Voyager 1 to outlast New Horizons |
122377 | 2015-07-15 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Withdrawn | Voyager 1 to outlast Juno |
122378 | 2015-07-15 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission |
122400 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122401 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122402 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122403 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 7 | | http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122404 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122405 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122406 | 2015-07-15 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 5 | | Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122407 | 2015-07-15 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 |
122408 | 2015-07-15 | 2022-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday |
122496 | 2015-07-16 | 2015-07-20 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | Finished and sent off BA by next Monday. |
122497 | 2015-07-16 | 2015-07-21 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | Clean up data at LIN next monday |
122554 | 2015-07-16 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030 |
122555 | 2015-07-16 | 2018-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | Right | George H.W. Bush to live beyond Gerald Ford's record lifespan |
122557 | 2015-07-16 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | 25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 |
122579 | 2015-07-16 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Withdrawn | N'kisi the parrot to live to 2030 |
122659 | 2015-07-16 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 |
122660 | 2015-07-16 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 |
122661 | 2015-07-16 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 8 | | Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 |
122867 | 2015-07-17 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015 |
123017 | 2015-07-17 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are) |
123205 | 2015-07-18 | 2015-07-30 | silacoid | 2 | Right | When my Kindle Voyage ( imported through US friends to avoid an Amazon shipping restriction ) arrives , all functionality including 3G will work here in Norway |
123538 | 2015-07-20 | 2015-10-25 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | V will visit the TNS lecture. |
123539 | 2015-07-20 | 2016-01-01 | ZeitPolizei | 2 | Wrong | C will get together with L by next new year. |
123540 | 2015-07-21 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Will Wright to do an IAmA on reddit by 2025 |
123541 | 2015-07-21 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s |
123542 | 2015-07-21 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015 |
124360 | 2015-07-25 | 2016-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Wrong | Oliver Sacks will live into 2016 |
124361 | 2015-07-25 | 2015-07-30 | PurpleDango | 4 | Right | I will get at least 7 wins in this mage arena run |
124414 | 2015-07-25 | 2015-07-31 | Nikolas | 5 | Right | I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) |
124415 | 2015-07-25 | 2015-08-01 | acradis | 1 | | Escribiré al menos dos historias cortas |
124416 | 2015-07-25 | 2015-07-28 | acradis | 1 | Wrong | Acabaré el libro de Grimm y empezaré y acabaré el siguiente libro |
124504 | 2015-07-25 | 2015-10-19 | sdafdsfsdfdsfa | 1 | Right | Complete marathon |
124853 | 2015-07-26 | 2016-07-01 | btrettel | 1 | Wrong | Pandora will call me with a "special offer" by 2016-07-01 |
125288 | 2015-07-28 | 2099-01-01 | InquilineKea | 10 | | Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it |
125289 | 2015-07-28 | 2099-01-01 | InquilineKea | 8 | | Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it |
125290 | 2015-07-28 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 |
125338 | 2015-07-28 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 |
125368 | 2015-07-28 | 2020-01-02 | btrettel | 3 | Wrong | The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2020 |
125477 | 2015-07-28 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 6 | | "Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade" - Jacob Cannell |
125514 | 2015-07-29 | 2015-10-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 10 | Wrong | The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. |
125720 | 2015-07-29 | 2051-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | Social Security in US to still exist by 2050 |
125841 | 2015-07-29 | 2030-01-01 | InquilineKea | 5 | | At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s |
125842 | 2015-07-29 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | US will ally with Iran by 2030 - Alex Lightman |
125843 | 2015-07-29 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | "China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places" - Alex Lightman |
125844 | 2015-07-29 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 16 | | North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 |
126268 | 2015-07-31 | 2025-07-01 | Snorkelfarsan | 16 | | There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) |
127029 | 2015-08-02 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 8 | | At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025 |
127030 | 2015-08-02 | 2020-08-04 | espore | 4 | Right | The conservatives will win the next general election in the UK |
127031 | 2015-08-02 | 2080-10-16 | espore | 6 | | A true general intelligence AI will be created |
127032 | 2015-08-02 | 2035-10-16 | espore | 10 | | Humans will be sent to Mars |
127439 | 2015-08-04 | 2041-01-01 | InquilineKea | 11 | | HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) |
127440 | 2015-08-04 | 2041-01-01 | InquilineKea | 13 | | We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 |
127441 | 2015-08-04 | 2041-01-01 | InquilineKea | 8 | | By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat |
127442 | 2015-08-04 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 6 | | Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 |
127581 | 2015-08-05 | 2015-12-01 | juliomarcos | 1 | | Vamos ter uma v0 do dash até começo de dezembro |
127718 | 2015-08-06 | 2100-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100 |
127719 | 2015-08-06 | 2100-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100 |
127728 | 2015-08-06 | 2015-09-01 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | will meet L when I'm back |
127731 | 2015-08-06 | 2015-08-07 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | Finish Superintelligence today. |
127840 | 2015-08-06 | 2017-01-01 | silacoid | 1 | Right | Ash vs Evil Dead will run 2 or more seasons |
128041 | 2015-08-07 | 2025-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | | India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 |
128776 | 2015-08-10 | 2025-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Brasil will be ranked 7 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. |
128777 | 2015-08-10 | 2025-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Indonesia will be ranked 8 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. |
128875 | 2015-08-10 | 2016-07-29 | JoshuaZ | 13 | Right | Clinton to be Democratic nominee |
128901 | 2015-08-10 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2020. |
129018 | 2015-08-10 | 2015-08-25 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | I will get a job offer from Tuft and Needle. |
129019 | 2015-08-11 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | | By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years |
129599 | 2015-08-12 | 2015-09-12 | EloiseRosen | 9 | Wrong | In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. |
129642 | 2015-08-12 | 2030-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2030. |
129643 | 2015-08-12 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. |
129644 | 2015-08-12 | 2042-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | NTRU found to be fundamentally vulnerable to quantum computer based attacks by January 1, 2042. |
129645 | 2015-08-12 | 2016-03-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | I will buy another book written by Brandon Sanderson before next March. |
129646 | 2015-08-12 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | Vandiver conjecture to not be resolved before January 1, 2017. |
129713 | 2015-08-12 | 2051-01-02 | btrettel | 4 | | More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 |
129898 | 2015-08-13 | 2015-08-29 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | I will get a job offer from GoDaddy. |
129899 | 2015-08-13 | 2016-01-01 | unexpectedEOF | 4 | Right | The level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015. |
130225 | 2015-08-15 | 2016-04-01 | unexpectedEOF | 1 | Wrong | The Interactive portion of SXSW 2016 will see fewer than 35,000 attendees. |
130226 | 2015-08-15 | 2016-01-20 | unexpectedEOF | 11 | Right | Mo-Pac express lanes will not be completed and accepting traffic before January 20th, 2016. |
130254 | 2015-08-15 | 2016-07-02 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Wrong | Rosa Parks will be on the new 10 dollar bill. |
130296 | 2015-08-15 | 2015-08-30 | damaru | 1 | | This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 85-95 |
130297 | 2015-08-15 | 2015-08-30 | damaru | 2 | Right | This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 45-55 |
130360 | 2015-08-15 | 2042-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | Of the total-coloring conjecture, list coloring conjecture, the EFL conjecture, and the Hardwiger conjecture, by Jan 1, 2042, either a triplet of them shown to imply the other, or one of them shown to be undecidable. |
130575 | 2015-08-16 | 2017-07-01 | kuudes | 5 | Wrong | Greece will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income or other type of basic income before end of 06/2017 for more than 90% of its working age population. |
130699 | 2015-08-17 | 2030-01-07 | cmessinger | 4 | | Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030 |
130806 | 2015-08-17 | 2016-01-01 | Afforess | 2 | Wrong | California will experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or stronger in 2015 |
130807 | 2015-08-17 | 2100-01-01 | moridinamael | 9 | | There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars |
130808 | 2015-08-17 | 2015-11-01 | moridinamael | 3 | Wrong | Home repairs will run more than 20% over budget |
130809 | 2015-08-17 | 2015-11-01 | moridinamael | 5 | Wrong | Home repairs will run more than 10% over budget |
131357 | 2015-08-19 | 2016-08-16 | mayanju | 1 | Wrong | Russia will be aggressive toward Finland. |
131358 | 2015-08-19 | 2015-10-16 | mayanju | 4 | Wrong | Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. |
132090 | 2015-08-21 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | By January 1, 2035, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. |
132390 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-09-07 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | Burning man predictions: I will see >0 topless girls. |
132391 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-09-07 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Burning man predictions: I will cry >0 times. |
132392 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-09-07 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | Burning man predictions: We’ll miss our connecting flight on the way there. |
132393 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-09-07 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | Burning man predictions: I will see Vika. |
132394 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-09-07 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | Burning man predictions: Giant penis tower will be there again. |
132395 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-09-07 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | Burning man predictions: I will have a nightmare involving bugs. |
132396 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-09-07 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | Burning man predictions: I will get at least 1 bug bite. |
132477 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-10-20 | kallman | 1 | Wrong | I will complete all the little home renovation tasks on my list before my roommate returns in October. |
132478 | 2015-08-22 | 2015-10-20 | kallman | 1 | Right | I will complete most of the rennovation tasks before my roommate returns in october (ie >75%) |
132513 | 2015-08-23 | 2015-09-18 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | Right | The VIX index will go above 32 before September 18th, 2015. |
132812 | 2015-08-24 | 2015-08-24 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will do enough tomorrow morning before going to work. |
133207 | 2015-08-25 | 2050-01-01 | btrettel | 1 | | Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 |
133401 | 2015-08-25 | 2015-08-25 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will finish updates based on yesterday's review before 3. |
133402 | 2015-08-25 | 2015-08-25 | reubensandwich | 1 | Right | I will read a chapter before dinner. |
133415 | 2015-08-25 | 2016-02-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Wrong | Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. |
133628 | 2015-08-26 | 2021-01-01 | btrettel | 4 | | US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 |
133629 | 2015-08-26 | 2031-01-01 | btrettel | 3 | | US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 |
133633 | 2015-08-27 | 2042-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | By January 1, 2042, proven that at least 9/10ths of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the real line (proportionally). |
133634 | 2015-08-27 | 2036-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | By January 1, 2036, shown that at least the first 10^15 non-trivial zeros of the Riemann Zeta function obey the Riemann hypothesis (that is lie on the s= 1/2 line) |
133645 | 2015-08-27 | 2035-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. |
133762 | 2015-08-27 | 2015-08-28 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | My pull will be merged today. |
133763 | 2015-08-27 | 2015-08-28 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | My older pull will be merged today. |
133764 | 2015-08-27 | 2015-08-29 | reubensandwich | 2 | Wrong | I will have a draft of the updated analytics available by the end of the week. |
133849 | 2015-08-27 | 2016-04-16 | _W_ | 2 | Right | Valve will use the Reborn client for the Winter 2015 Dota 2 major tournament |
133850 | 2015-08-27 | 2016-06-16 | _W_ | 2 | Right | Valve will use the Reborn client for the Spring 2016 Dota 2 major tournament |
133851 | 2015-08-27 | 2016-09-01 | _W_ | 2 | Right | Valve will use the Reborn client for TI6 |
134708 | 2015-08-30 | 2015-08-31 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will finish this book before going to sleep tonight. |
134948 | 2015-08-31 | 2015-09-02 | reubensandwich | 1 | Withdrawn | I will write additional regression tests for the module I need to refactor before the end of tuesday. |
134949 | 2015-08-31 | 2015-09-01 | reubensandwich | 1 | Wrong | I will have the analytics update ready tomorrow. |
135283 | 2015-09-01 | 2025-09-01 | Afforess | 2 | | Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present. |
135863 | 2015-09-02 | 2015-09-02 | raehik | 1 | Wrong | This final PB API test will work correctly |
135970 | 2015-09-03 | 2015-09-18 | taryneast | 1 | Right | I will complete my 30day push-up challenge in the next 15 days (I have 15 days left) |
136284 | 2015-09-03 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Wrong | I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups before 2016. |
136285 | 2015-09-03 | 2016-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Wrong | I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups and 1 set of 20 pulls up before 2016. |
136286 | 2015-09-03 | 2030-01-01 | btrettel | 1 | | Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 |
136287 | 2015-09-03 | 2051-01-01 | btrettel | 3 | | US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 |
138018 | 2015-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | Wrong | From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. |
138019 | 2015-09-07 | 2019-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | Wrong | From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. |
138020 | 2015-09-07 | 2020-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | Wrong | From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. |
138021 | 2015-09-07 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | Wrong | From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. |
138022 | 2015-09-07 | 2022-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | Wrong | From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. |
138023 | 2015-09-07 | 2023-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 8 | Wrong | From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. |
138036 | 2015-09-07 | 2016-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | Withdrawn | From today until January 1st, 2016 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. |
138037 | 2015-09-07 | 2020-01-01 | Legioona | 5 | Wrong | In five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector). |
138071 | 2015-09-07 | 2073-01-01 | btrettel | 3 | | The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073 |
138072 | 2015-09-07 | 2024-04-09 | Idrinkitup | 1 | | I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024. |
138073 | 2015-09-07 | 2017-11-01 | Idrinkitup | 3 | Right | I will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017 |
138074 | 2015-09-07 | 2050-01-01 | btrettel | 9 | | A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 |
138075 | 2015-09-07 | 2017-01-01 | btrettel | 4 | Wrong | I will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01 |
139603 | 2015-09-10 | 2016-01-01 | kuudes | 22 | Wrong | Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. |
139604 | 2015-09-10 | 2016-01-01 | kuudes | 6 | Wrong | Denmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. |
139605 | 2015-09-10 | 2016-01-01 | kuudes | 19 | Wrong | Finland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. |
139606 | 2015-09-10 | 2016-01-01 | kuudes | 7 | Wrong | Germany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. |
139607 | 2015-09-10 | 2016-01-01 | kuudes | 14 | Wrong | Luxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. |
139608 | 2015-09-10 | 2016-01-01 | kuudes | 21 | Wrong | Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. |
139858 | 2015-09-11 | 2015-09-11 | stephen | 2 | | Obamacare will survive, but might get changed around the edges by court challenges. |
139881 | 2015-09-11 | 2015-09-11 | Caleb Withers | 1 | Right | Price for Air NZ to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $498 NZD as per Webjet) |
141206 | 2015-09-13 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. |
141318 | 2015-09-13 | 2015-09-23 | splorridge | 2 | Right | John McDonnell to be the next UK Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. |
141357 | 2015-09-13 | 2016-02-09 | KBVMD | 15 | Wrong | Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. |
141446 | 2015-09-14 | 2016-12-31 | bshih | 2 | Wrong | Jace, Vryn's Prodigy will be worth at least $50 by the end of 2016. |
142174 | 2015-09-15 | 2016-03-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | Right | Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association. |
142345 | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-15 | Porejide | 1 | | More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation. |
142346 | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-15 | Porejide | 1 | | There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls. |
142347 | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-15 | Porejide | 1 | Wrong | My WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column. |
142370 | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-15 | Porejide | 1 | Wrong | I will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results. |
142371 | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-15 | Porejide | 1 | Right | My top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries. |
142372 | 2015-09-15 | 2016-01-15 | Porejide | 2 | | If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). |
142447 | 2015-09-16 | 2016-07-29 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Wrong | 2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary |
143447 | 2015-09-17 | 2050-01-01 | btrettel | 7 | | Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 |
144796 | 2015-09-21 | 2015-10-21 | taryneast | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my next 30-day pushup challenge inside of 35 days |
144797 | 2015-09-21 | 2015-10-31 | taryneast | 2 | Right | I will complete my expenses for the tax year before the end of October |
144798 | 2015-09-21 | 2015-09-30 | taryneast | 4 | Wrong | I will complete my expense for the tax year by the end of September |
144799 | 2015-09-21 | 2015-10-05 | taryneast | 2 | Wrong | I will complete my expense for the tax year in two weeks time |
145269 | 2015-09-21 | 2050-01-01 | btrettel | 8 | | Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 |
145271 | 2015-09-21 | 2015-09-28 | marchdown | 2 | Right | My diabetic partner won't be hospitalized this week despite their intention. |
145798 | 2015-09-23 | 2016-01-16 | iajrz | 1 | Right | My total debt will be 500 USD lower than it is now. |
145799 | 2015-09-23 | 2016-01-16 | iajrz | 1 | Wrong | My income will be 10% higher than it is now. |
145838 | 2015-09-23 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 4 | Wrong | Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. |
146917 | 2015-09-25 | 2016-01-01 | Josh Holland | 4 | Right | I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 |
146918 | 2015-09-25 | 2017-01-01 | Josh Holland | 3 | Wrong | Pebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016 |
147033 | 2015-09-25 | 2015-09-28 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | The average grade for the graph theory test for the math 101 students will be at least 75%. |
147621 | 2015-09-26 | 2015-09-27 | tstelzig | 4 | Wrong | Somebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years). |
147883 | 2015-09-27 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014. |
147884 | 2015-09-27 | 2020-12-26 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh |
147887 | 2015-09-27 | 2017-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Major Atmospheric Cerenkov Experiment Telescope, the world's 2nd largest γ ray telescope will be completed in 2017 |
147918 | 2015-09-27 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | The US to have a population between 310 million and 334 million on January 1, 2017 |
149079 | 2015-09-29 | 2016-11-16 | NathanMcKnight | 8 | Wrong | All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. |
149730 | 2015-10-01 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 4 | Wrong | C9 will win worlds. |
149731 | 2015-10-01 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 4 | Wrong | Fnatic will win worlds. |
149732 | 2015-10-01 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 4 | Right | SKT1 will win worlds. |
149733 | 2015-10-01 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 5 | Wrong | Origen will win worlds. |
149734 | 2015-10-01 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Withdrawn | Invictus Gaming will win worlds. |
149735 | 2015-10-01 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 3 | Wrong | CLG will win worlds. |
149798 | 2015-10-01 | 2015-10-31 | PseudonymousUser | 4 | Wrong | One of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds. |
150038 | 2015-10-02 | 2019-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Wrong | Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. |
150150 | 2015-10-02 | 2020-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020. |
151420 | 2015-10-06 | 2030-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030. |
151423 | 2015-10-06 | 2020-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement. |
151424 | 2015-10-06 | 2019-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | | 001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years. |
151995 | 2015-10-07 | 2016-09-15 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | I will have at least two more papers published before September 15, 2016 |
152716 | 2015-10-09 | 2015-10-09 | dhoe | 1 | Wrong | Angela Merkel to win peace Nobel price |
153566 | 2015-10-12 | 2016-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Wrong | Bashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year. |
154580 | 2015-10-15 | 2016-10-15 | taryneast | 1 | Withdrawn | Neumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage) |
154581 | 2015-10-15 | 2016-10-15 | taryneast | 1 | Withdrawn | Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in) |
154582 | 2015-10-15 | 2016-10-15 | taryneast | 2 | Wrong | Neumann Space will be a resounding disaster (I'll lose a lot of money) |
154583 | 2015-10-15 | 2016-10-15 | taryneast | 2 | Right | Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in) |
154584 | 2015-10-15 | 2016-10-15 | taryneast | 2 | Wrong | Neumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage) |
154585 | 2015-10-15 | 2016-10-15 | taryneast | 2 | Wrong | Neumann Space will be moderate failure (I'll make no money and lose my investment) |
154820 | 2015-10-16 | 2017-10-16 | rhiannon | 3 | | Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos. |
154821 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-10-17 | RoryS | 2 | Right | I will have sex with someone I know tonight |
154822 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-10-17 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | I will have sex with someone I don't know tonight |
154858 | 2015-10-16 | 2016-12-16 | memoriesofbutter | 2 | | I will lack living funds for at least one month next year. |
154859 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-11-30 | memoriesofbutter | 4 | Wrong | Reduce food costs by $100 next month. |
154860 | 2015-10-16 | 2016-04-30 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | I will acquire enough javascript knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. |
154861 | 2015-10-16 | 2016-08-16 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | I will acquire enough python knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. |
154862 | 2015-10-16 | 2016-04-16 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | I will learn enough perspective to improve my drawing. |
154863 | 2015-10-16 | 2016-04-16 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | I will complete Anki reviews every week until April. |
154864 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-11-16 | memoriesofbutter | 2 | Right | I will master peg method. |
154865 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-11-30 | memoriesofbutter | 3 | Withdrawn | Increased potassium will correlate with decreased muscular soreness. |
154866 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-12-12 | memoriesofbutter | 2 | Wrong | The DRACO Indiegogo campaign will reach 100,000. |
154888 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-12-16 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | Score at least 150 on a PLSAT |
154889 | 2015-10-16 | 2016-07-16 | memoriesofbutter | 2 | | Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. |
154890 | 2015-10-16 | 2015-12-16 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | Right | I will be less surprised when encountering the illusion of transparency. |
155050 | 2015-10-17 | 2029-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Brasil will reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. |
155086 | 2015-10-17 | 2015-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Right | Zhongguo's wind power capacity will hit 120 gigawatts |
155468 | 2015-10-18 | 2015-10-19 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | Average for 463 midterm will be at least 35 out of 60. |
155469 | 2015-10-18 | 2015-10-19 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | 463 midterm average will be at least 25 out of 60. |
155470 | 2015-10-18 | 2015-10-19 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | 463 midterm average will be at least 15 out of 60 |
155471 | 2015-10-18 | 2015-10-19 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | 463 midterm average will be at least 45 out of 60. |
155488 | 2015-10-18 | 2032-07-16 | SmoothPorcupine | 8 | | A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. |
156605 | 2015-10-22 | 2017-01-01 | akrasib | 1 | | At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system using a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2016. A case started before 2017, but finished in the year 2017 counts as well. |
156615 | 2015-10-22 | 2016-01-01 | akrasib | 3 | Right | The @VegAssist Twitter bot will have at least 60 followers by the end of 2015. |
157120 | 2015-10-23 | 2015-10-26 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Right | The average for the 1 PM math 101 class will be higher than that for the 10 AM. |
157640 | 2015-10-25 | 2015-10-29 | argothiel | 6 | Wrong | Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic - Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland |
157641 | 2015-10-25 | 2015-10-28 | argothiel | 7 | Right | We will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier |
158400 | 2015-10-28 | 2025-01-01 | quanticle | 4 | | The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). |
158479 | 2015-10-28 | 2015-10-28 | Rory O’Kane | 1 | Right | Ray lives in New York. |
158480 | 2015-10-28 | 2015-10-28 | Rory O’Kane | 1 | Right | Ray has read at least five fanfiction stories in his life. |
158487 | 2015-10-28 | 2015-10-28 | Ray | 1 | Wrong | I will have more than 12 non-useless ideas. |
158497 | 2015-10-28 | 2015-10-28 | Rory O’Kane | 1 | Wrong | A jellyfish has zero neurons. |
158791 | 2015-10-28 | 2015-11-15 | danielfilan | 3 | Wrong | I will get full marks in today's finance programming quiz. |
160046 | 2015-11-01 | 2017-08-01 | Idrinkitup | 2 | Wrong | I bet that when I get done with taking the PE, traveling around the world for ~14 months, I'll get a job in web development in Raleigh and invest in rental properties and hang out with Jay. |
160047 | 2015-11-01 | 2016-09-10 | Idrinkitup | 1 | Wrong | I will go to Burning Man this year. |
160085 | 2015-11-01 | 2017-01-15 | Idrinkitup | 1 | Wrong | I will be ILR Level 2 proficient in Spanish after my time in Spain. |
161642 | 2015-11-04 | 2015-11-04 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | My money will have gone through when I check tonight |
161718 | 2015-11-05 | 2016-01-01 | danielfilan | 5 | Wrong | The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. |
161719 | 2015-11-05 | 2018-11-01 | danielfilan | 13 | Wrong | English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction |
162340 | 2015-11-07 | 2016-01-07 | jdmeagher | 3 | Wrong | The Fed won't raise the rate in 2015 |
163434 | 2015-11-09 | 2015-12-16 | bruh | 2 | | I think I will get an A in geosci |
164368 | 2015-11-11 | 2016-01-01 | Idrinkitup | 2 | Right | I can sell my car within 2 weeks for $3k |
164391 | 2015-11-11 | 2016-02-03 | timujin | 2 | Wrong | Winter Steam sale will have a discount of at least 20% on Fallout 4. |
164700 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-26 | danielfilan | 5 | Wrong | I will receieve "Reasons and Persons" and "On What Matters" by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year. |
164920 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 4 | Wrong | Nakamura will win the London Chess Classic |
164921 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 3 | Wrong | Aronian will win the London Chess Classic |
164922 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 2 | Right | Carlsen will win the London Chess Classic |
164925 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 6 | Wrong | Anand will win the London Chess Classic |
164926 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 4 | Wrong | Vachier-Lagrave will win the London Chess Classic |
164927 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 2 | Wrong | Caruana will win the London Chess Classic |
164930 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 1 | Withdrawn | Hammer will win the London Chess Classic |
164931 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-13 | Josh Holland | 2 | Withdrawn | So will win the London Chess Classic |
164932 | 2015-11-12 | 2017-01-01 | qznc | 6 | Wrong | In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car. |
164933 | 2015-11-12 | 2015-12-01 | qznc | 3 | Wrong | Volkswagen shares will be traded above 140€ in November |
164934 | 2015-11-12 | 2016-01-01 | qznc | 2 | Right | @katyperry will have the most Twitter followers at the end of 2015 |
164935 | 2015-11-12 | 2016-07-04 | qznc | 3 | Right | Juno spacecraft sends images from Jupiter |
165802 | 2015-11-14 | 2015-12-20 | Majikkani_Hand | 1 | | I think I will get all As or A-s on my courses this semester. |
165810 | 2015-11-14 | 2015-12-05 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 6 | Wrong | The VIX index will go above 23 by December 4th. |
167047 | 2015-11-17 | 2016-01-01 | danielfilan | 4 | Wrong | I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. |
167048 | 2015-11-17 | 2015-12-20 | danielfilan | 1 | Right | 'Nail and Gear' will win the Hello Internet flag election. |
167342 | 2015-11-17 | 2015-12-15 | Lissy | 1 | Right | I will earn my first degree with at least a 3.5 GPA in my major. |
167859 | 2015-11-19 | 2016-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | Wrong | Bharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 --Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG |
169779 | 2015-11-24 | 2045-01-01 | unexpectedEOF | 14 | | The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. |
172169 | 2015-12-02 | 2020-12-30 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat's middle class will reach 200 million by 2020. |
172170 | 2015-12-02 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat's middle class will reach 475 million by 2030. |
172171 | 2015-12-02 | 2026-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | International Air Transport Association's (IATA) updated passenger growth forecast, predicts Bharat will displace Britain as the third-largest market by 2026. |
172172 | 2015-12-02 | 2020-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat to be a $3.5 trillion economy by 2020: Sonal Varma, Nomura |
172173 | 2015-12-02 | 2020-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. --Julius Baer wealth report |
173508 | 2015-12-06 | 2016-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | RBI estimates Bharat's current account deficit at 1.5% in FY16. |
174032 | 2015-12-07 | 2018-05-02 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Rural electrification: 18,452 villages are to be provided electricity in Bharat under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Jyoti Yojana by May 1, 2018. |
174561 | 2015-12-09 | 2016-12-31 | solipsist | 13 | Wrong | The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 |
174563 | 2015-12-09 | 2021-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. |
174564 | 2015-12-09 | 2025-12-12 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Great Green Wall, a land restoration programme in the African Sahel over the next 10 years. Aims to restore more than 50 million hectares of land. |
174929 | 2015-12-10 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Europe and the United States will be lagging well behind with 8% and 4% of STEM graduates by 2030 respectively --OECD |
174930 | 2015-12-10 | 2030-12-11 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | By 2030, Zhongguo will have 27% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates |
174931 | 2015-12-10 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | By 2030, Bharat will have 23% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates. |
174932 | 2015-12-10 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | By 2030, USA will have 8% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates |
175192 | 2015-12-11 | 2016-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | US Federal Reserve stuck near the 0 bound (say, <1.5% with no willingness to increase it further in the immediate future) by Jan 1, 2016 (see http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx ) |
175215 | 2015-12-11 | 2017-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | increased tuition in canada causes increased stress on professors (contributing cause) (2015) |
175216 | 2015-12-11 | 2017-01-08 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Higher pressure on unions due to higher pressure on professors in canada (in 2015.) |
175217 | 2015-12-11 | 2016-08-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Higher tuition in 2015 causes stress in students in canada |
175218 | 2015-12-11 | 2016-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada. |
175219 | 2015-12-11 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | War between india & pakistan 2015 |
175220 | 2015-12-11 | 2016-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 7 | Wrong | Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 |
175221 | 2015-12-11 | 2017-01-08 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | more people globally will have cellphones than household electricity in 2015 |
175288 | 2015-12-11 | 2016-01-16 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | My paper will be accepted for the Munich conference |
175772 | 2015-12-13 | 2016-01-06 | themusicgod1 | 9 | Right | week of dec 22, the Central Bank of Turkey will meet, and do central-banky things. |
175773 | 2015-12-13 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | 1.8%+ urban development growth in 2015 ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.GROW/countries?display=graph ) |
175774 | 2015-12-13 | 2024-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 7 | | US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 |
175775 | 2015-12-13 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Maker culture grew in 2015, as measured by maker faire audience ( http://makerfaire.com/ / http://makerfaire.com/bay-area-2015/sponsors/ ) |
175796 | 2015-12-13 | 2017-02-20 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Right | Next President of the US will have to deal with(militarily or otherwise) Dalwa al Islamyya. It will still exist and be problematic by the time the next president assumes office. |
176322 | 2015-12-15 | 2048-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat's HDI will be > 0.856 by 2048. |
176323 | 2015-12-15 | 2022-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022. |
176324 | 2015-12-15 | 2022-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will pass the World Bank in terms of loans(billions of dollars per year) made. |
176339 | 2015-12-16 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2030 Wasting among under 3 children will be at 0%. |
176340 | 2015-12-16 | 2022-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%. |
176341 | 2015-12-16 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | By 2030 child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 7.4%. |
176342 | 2015-12-16 | 2038-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | | By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat. |
176343 | 2015-12-16 | 2019-01-01 | ChristianKl | 6 | Wrong | Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 |
176346 | 2015-12-16 | 2017-01-01 | ChristianKl | 4 | Wrong | Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2017 |
176386 | 2015-12-17 | 2021-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. |
176387 | 2015-12-18 | 2016-08-22 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Wrong | Zhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally. |
176389 | 2015-12-18 | 2016-08-22 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Wrong | Brasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall. |
176390 | 2015-12-18 | 2016-01-14 | kuudes | 2 | Right | In Spanish general elections 2015, PP will get most seats. |
176391 | 2015-12-18 | 2016-01-14 | kuudes | 1 | Wrong | In Spanish general elections 2015, PSOE will gain most seats. |
176392 | 2015-12-18 | 2016-01-31 | kuudes | 3 | Wrong | The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has at least 2 parties. |
176393 | 2015-12-18 | 2016-01-31 | kuudes | 1 | Wrong | The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has only 1 party. (considering local variants of the same party or similar as same party) |
176397 | 2015-12-19 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat's National Highways to reach 150 000km in length from 100 000km today. |
176398 | 2015-12-19 | 2017-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | Right | Bharat will be the 2nd largest smartphone market globally by 2017 -- Strategy Analytics, IDC. |
176403 | 2015-12-19 | 2019-11-16 | JoaoEira | 3 | Wrong | Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term |
176412 | 2015-12-21 | 2038-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | By 2038 stunting for under 5 children will be under 7.8% globally. |
176413 | 2015-12-21 | 2050-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. |
176414 | 2015-12-21 | 2038-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | By 2038 less than 3.6% children under 5 will be underweight globally. |
176415 | 2015-12-21 | 2046-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally. |
176428 | 2015-12-24 | 2015-12-28 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | Gift from S is a fiction book. |
176429 | 2015-12-24 | 2015-12-28 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | Gift from S is a non-fiction book. |
176430 | 2015-12-24 | 2015-12-28 | memoriesofbutter | 1 | | Gift from S is a sharp implement. |
176431 | 2015-12-24 | 2015-12-28 | memoriesofbutter | 2 | | Gift from N is a kitchen appliance. |
176432 | 2015-12-24 | 2016-12-23 | Daniel Reeves | 1 | Right | codeword: jxa |
176433 | 2015-12-24 | 2016-12-31 | quanticle | 1 | Wrong | Research In Motion will either declare bankruptcy protection or will be acquired. |
176434 | 2015-12-24 | 2016-12-31 | quanticle | 2 | Wrong | The Priv will be the last Blackberry branded phone released by Research in Motion as an independent entity. |
176435 | 2015-12-24 | 2017-01-01 | Madplatypus | 3 | Wrong | 75% of the population within Syria's currently recognized borders will be under the direct or indirect control of a single goverment by 2017. |
176436 | 2015-12-25 | 2024-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 9 | | By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. |
176437 | 2015-12-25 | 2016-03-01 | ArturoGoosnargh | 3 | Wrong | Pedro Sánchez will be the next President of the Government of Spain |
176438 | 2015-12-26 | 2016-01-01 | ioannes | 2 | Wrong | I will finish "Learn Python the Hard Way" by the end of 2015 |
176439 | 2015-12-26 | 2015-12-31 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I will sell my Subaru Forester before returning to the Bay Area |
176440 | 2015-12-26 | 2015-12-28 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit my third DAND project by the end of the weekend. |
176441 | 2015-12-26 | 2015-12-27 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I will write a blog post about "One Minute to Midnight" tomorrow. |
176442 | 2015-12-26 | 2016-02-01 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will complete the DAND program by the end of January 2016. |
176443 | 2015-12-26 | 2016-01-12 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Right | Iraqi government will liberate Ramadi from Islamic State. |
176444 | 2015-12-26 | 2024-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated. |
176445 | 2015-12-26 | 2025-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. |
176446 | 2015-12-28 | 2016-10-05 | PlacidPlatypus | 5 | Right | I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. |
176449 | 2015-12-29 | 2016-01-28 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Wrong | Sam's stolen phone will be recovered. |
176450 | 2015-12-29 | 2017-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | Right | Iraqi government will liberate Mosul, their most important stronghold from Islamic State. |
176451 | 2015-12-30 | 2026-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 3 | | At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026. |
176452 | 2015-12-30 | 2017-12-01 | JoshuaZ | 73 | Right | Donald Trump to be the next US President. |
176472 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album. |
176473 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: Sam will attend Burning Man. |
176474 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: I will attend Burning Man. |
176475 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: I will run a marathon. |
176476 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: We’ll buy a new car. |
176477 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: Sam will attend grad school. |
176478 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will go to the emergency room, for myself or someone else. |
176479 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016. |
176480 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | 2016 predictions: Sam will post 5 or more blog posts. |
176481 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will post 5 or more blog posts. |
176482 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year. |
176483 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: I will be a vegan at the end of the year. |
176484 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. |
176485 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: I will have >365 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. |
176486 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. |
176487 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will complete 3 or more Kaggle competitions. |
176488 | 2016-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will complete 2 (or more) Kaggle competitions. |
176489 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will complete 1 (or more) Kaggle competitions. |
176490 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will end the year still living in the Boston area. |
176491 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: I will have a baby. |
176492 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 8 | Right | 2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). |
176493 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | 2016 predictions: At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. |
176494 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 9 | Wrong | 2016 predictions: World War III will happen. |
176496 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 16 | Right | 2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. |
176497 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Right | 2016 predictions: I will end up being underconfident on my 2016 predictions. |
176509 | 2016-01-01 | 2016-01-14 | Raahul_Kumar | 16 | Right | Ebola epidemic has ended. |
176510 | 2016-01-01 | 2018-06-02 | JoshuaZ | 9 | Wrong | Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker |
176511 | 2016-01-01 | 2018-06-02 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Wrong | Rey is a Kenobi |
176512 | 2016-01-01 | 2018-06-02 | JoshuaZ | 10 | Wrong | Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker |
176513 | 2016-01-01 | 2018-06-02 | JoshuaZ | 8 | Wrong | Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. |
176519 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-12-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Right | 2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) |
176520 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Right | The Hyatt cyberattacks will not be definitively traced to nation-state actors before January 1st, 2017. |
176521 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-02 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 7 | Wrong | Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. |
176522 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-02-02 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 7 | Wrong | Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 |
176523 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | | The CBOE's stock price will go above $75 before January 1, 2017 |
176524 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-02-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Right | Oculus Rift preorders will begin before January 31, 2016 |
176525 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-04-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 6 | Wrong | I will purchase an Oculus Rift by March 30, 2016 |
176526 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-01-21 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Right | The Energy Conversion Devices bankruptcy case will not conclude on January 20, 2016 |
176527 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Wrong | 3D XPoint will be released by January 1, 2017 |
176528 | 2016-01-02 | 2019-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 5 | Wrong | Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. |
176529 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 4 | Right | Facebook's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 |
176530 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-02 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | Wrong | Gilead's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 |
176531 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-01-31 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Wrong | Blackstone's February 2016 dividend will be below $0.60 per share |
176532 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | | FireEye's stock price will go above $25 before January 1, 2017 |
176533 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Withdrawn | I will figure out a way to implement the ETF arbitrage strategy so that dollar-weighted clearing time is < 2 days |
176534 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Withdrawn | The seafoam strategy has an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio > 1.5 |
176535 | 2016-01-02 | 2018-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Withdrawn | I find a way to safely implement the LA strategy in small emerging markets by 2018 |
176536 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-04-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 4 | Right | There is sufficient depth in the bid logs |
176537 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-01-15 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Withdrawn | The depth in the bid logs can be increased cheaply |
176540 | 2016-01-02 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | By January 1, 2017, Martin's proof that QMA[2] is in EXP will be repaired. |
176543 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-02-01 | dgray | 1 | Wrong | I will finish 2 projects this month |
176544 | 2016-01-02 | 2016-11-09 | taylorcp | 18 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton will be elected president. |
176548 | 2016-01-03 | 2016-04-01 | RoryS | 4 | Wrong | I will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester |
176573 | 2016-01-03 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Wrong | Indonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017 |
176574 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 8 | Wrong | Before 2017, I will switch from Ubuntu back to Windows for most of my desktop computing |
176575 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Right | I will try some kind of VR HMD before 2017 |
176576 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will buy a VR HMD before 2017 |
176577 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Right | I will play at least some of The Witness before 2017 |
176578 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 6 | Wrong | I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 |
176579 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Wrong | I will read at least 36 books in 2016. |
176580 | 2016-01-04 | 2024-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 6.98% GDP growth rate for Bharat for 2015- 2024. |
176581 | 2016-01-04 | 2024-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.28% GDP growth rate for Zhongguo for 2015- 2024. |
176586 | 2016-01-04 | 2024-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024. |
176587 | 2016-01-04 | 2024-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024. |
176588 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 9 | Wrong | I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). |
176591 | 2016-01-04 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | HTC will ship a desktop-PC VR HMD to the general public before 2017 |
176598 | 2016-01-04 | 2016-06-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 6 | Wrong | Star Wars: The Force Awakens will gross above 2.8 Billion USD globally |
176606 | 2016-01-04 | 2016-03-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I will get an interview for the job I applied for. |
176610 | 2016-01-05 | 2016-01-19 | Idrinkitup | 1 | Wrong | I will get approval letter to take PE within 2 weeks |
176611 | 2016-01-05 | 2016-12-02 | PlacidPlatypus | 2 | Right | I will win the next game of chess I play with N |
176612 | 2016-01-05 | 2017-01-01 | EloiseRosen | 7 | Wrong | Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. |
176621 | 2016-01-06 | 2017-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 7 | Wrong | UK will default on its debt. |
176622 | 2016-01-06 | 2017-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 7 | Wrong | France will default on its debt. |
176623 | 2016-01-06 | 2023-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | | USA will default on its debt. |
176624 | 2016-01-06 | 2016-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 9 | Right | No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. |
176633 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 4 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship. |
176634 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 5 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. |
176635 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 5 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship. |
176636 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 4 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship. |
176637 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 7 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. |
176638 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 6 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. |
176639 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 3 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship. |
176640 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 3 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship. |
176641 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 4 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship. |
176642 | 2016-01-06 | 2045-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 4 | | The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes. |
176643 | 2016-01-06 | 2016-02-10 | bobpage | 3 | Right | I will not watch any more of The Expanse before 2016-02-09 |
176644 | 2016-01-07 | 2026-01-01 | PipFoweraker | 2 | | Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. |
176645 | 2016-01-07 | 2017-10-16 | phreeza | 4 | Right | Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany |
176648 | 2016-01-07 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | Wrong | Bharat real gdp growth rate at 7.8 % in 2016 |
176649 | 2016-01-07 | 2017-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | Wrong | Bharat real gdp growth rate at 8 % in 2017 |
176650 | 2016-01-07 | 2017-01-01 | Afforess | 4 | Wrong | China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD |
176651 | 2016-01-07 | 2017-01-01 | Afforess | 10 | Right | Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 |
176652 | 2016-01-07 | 2021-12-16 | coyotespike | 6 | | By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. |
176688 | 2016-01-08 | 2016-07-18 | bobpage | 2 | Withdrawn | [deleted] Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz |
176689 | 2016-01-08 | 2016-07-18 | bobpage | 10 | Wrong | Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) |
176690 | 2016-01-08 | 2016-01-15 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Wrong | Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. |
176691 | 2016-01-08 | 2016-01-31 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Wrong | Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. |
176692 | 2016-01-08 | 2026-12-31 | jasticE | 18 | | By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. |
176693 | 2016-01-09 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Wrong | The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak. |
176694 | 2016-01-09 | 2020-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 |
176695 | 2016-01-09 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Wrong | Bear Market in the USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to experience at least 20% decline from peak in 2015. |
176698 | 2016-01-10 | 2016-01-11 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | Ten wins in Haylee (3p) v. Ten (1p) on OGS |
176699 | 2016-01-10 | 2017-01-01 | Jach | 2 | Right | I am still at SFDC in one year |
176700 | 2016-01-10 | 2019-01-01 | Jach | 2 | Right | I am still at SFDC in 3 years |
176701 | 2016-01-10 | 2021-01-01 | Jach | 2 | | I am still at SFDC in 5 years |
176704 | 2016-01-10 | 2016-01-12 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Right | The Shanghai Composite will fall by more than 2% on Monday, January 11, 2016. |
176714 | 2016-01-11 | 2017-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Wrong | Blackstone's stock price will go below $20 before January 1, 2017 |
176715 | 2016-01-11 | 2016-02-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 16 | Wrong | The VIX index will go above 30 before February 1, 2016 |
176716 | 2016-01-11 | 2016-04-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 13 | Wrong | The VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016 |
176717 | 2016-01-11 | 2017-01-12 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Wrong | The S&P 500 will fall by more than 1% on January 11, 2016 |
176718 | 2016-01-11 | 2016-01-16 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 4 | Right | The Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week |
176719 | 2016-01-11 | 2017-01-01 | Houshalter | 21 | Right | Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 |
176720 | 2016-01-11 | 2016-07-01 | mortehu | 9 | Right | SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016 |
176723 | 2016-01-11 | 2016-02-25 | JoshuaZ | 8 | Wrong | Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). |
176739 | 2016-01-13 | 2016-01-14 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Wrong | Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 and earn $610 billion revenue --Eric Jackson, Forbes |
176740 | 2016-01-13 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Wrong | Apple’s stock will be at least $138.52 according to 32 analysts. |
176741 | 2016-01-13 | 2017-01-01 | chinawillfall | 20 | Wrong | The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. |
176742 | 2016-01-13 | 2018-01-01 | chinawillfall | 21 | Wrong | China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 |
176743 | 2016-01-13 | 2016-01-16 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | J responds before Friday. |
176744 | 2016-01-13 | 2016-01-16 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | J agrees to call. |
176745 | 2016-01-13 | 2016-12-01 | danielfilan | 3 | Wrong | I am still using Complice on December 1 2016. |
176752 | 2016-01-13 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | spacex falcon heavy rocket launch carrying lightsail-1 or 2 or 3 to space will be successful in 2016 |
176756 | 2016-01-14 | 2016-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Wrong | USA real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 2.30%. |
176757 | 2016-01-14 | 2016-01-15 | bobpage | 1 | Right | I will not talk on freenode until 2016-01-15 12:00 UTC |
176758 | 2016-01-14 | 2016-01-15 | timujin | 2 | Wrong | All three of us will get a passing grade on tomorrow's exam |
176770 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-07-01 | kuudes | 9 | Wrong | Sweden declares war against Finland |
176771 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-07-01 | kuudes | 11 | Wrong | Sweden declares war against Norway |
176772 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-07-01 | kuudes | 8 | Wrong | Sweden declares war against Denmark |
176773 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-07-01 | kuudes | 8 | Wrong | Sweden declares war against Iceland |
176774 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-07-01 | kuudes | 8 | Wrong | Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council |
176775 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-07-01 | kuudes | 11 | Wrong | Sweden declares war against any EU member state |
176776 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-07-01 | kuudes | 19 | Wrong | Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) |
176777 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-01 | danielfilan | 2 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton's average share in Democratic presidential primary polling shall be at least 55.0%, rounded to the first decimal, at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2016, according to RealClearPolitics.com |
176778 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-02 | danielfilan | 3 | Wrong | Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa. |
176779 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-02 | danielfilan | 8 | Wrong | Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa |
176780 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-02 | danielfilan | 10 | Right | Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa |
176781 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-10 | danielfilan | 9 | Right | Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. |
176782 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-10 | danielfilan | 5 | Wrong | Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. |
176783 | 2016-01-15 | 2016-02-10 | danielfilan | 3 | Wrong | Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire |
176790 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get A*A*A at A2 |
176791 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get above 1, 1 in STEP |
176792 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get 1, 1 in STEP |
176793 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will get 1, 2 in STEP |
176794 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Right | I will get into Cambridge |
176795 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I will get into Cambridge for CompSci without Maths |
176796 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-09-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | JP and MG. |
176797 | 2016-01-16 | 2017-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 6 | Wrong | Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. |
176798 | 2016-01-16 | 2017-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 7 | Wrong | Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the UK this year. |
176799 | 2016-01-16 | 2017-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 9 | Wrong | Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year. |
176800 | 2016-01-16 | 2021-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 8 | | North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. |
176801 | 2016-01-16 | 2021-01-16 | sweeneyrod | 15 | | Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. |
176802 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I get 3 A*'s in mocks. |
176803 | 2016-01-16 | 2016-03-16 | sweeneyrod | 1 | Wrong | I get A*A*A in mocks. |
176809 | 2016-01-17 | 2017-01-18 | Raahul_Kumar | 11 | Wrong | US recession in 2016. |
176810 | 2016-01-17 | 2040-06-24 | Raahul_Kumar | 6 | | Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank |
176811 | 2016-01-17 | 2016-02-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Right | Baidu's stock price will go below 160 before February 1, 2016 |
176812 | 2016-01-17 | 2016-02-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Right | Micron's stock will go below 10.50 before February 1, 2016 |
176819 | 2016-01-18 | 2016-03-05 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | I will be out of my sling in 6 weeks. |
176820 | 2016-01-18 | 2016-02-28 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | I will be out of my sling in 5 weeks. |
176821 | 2016-01-18 | 2016-02-21 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | I will be out of my sling in four weeks. |
176822 | 2016-01-18 | 2016-07-18 | bobpage | 6 | Wrong | Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Martha McSally. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) |
176823 | 2016-01-19 | 2016-02-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | Jonathan Blow's The Witness will be released to the general public for at least one platform in January 2016 |
176837 | 2016-01-20 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Right | USA real GDP growth rate for 2016 will be under 2.4% |
176838 | 2016-01-20 | 2017-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Wrong | US real GDP growth rate for 2017 will be under 2.2% |
176839 | 2016-01-20 | 2018-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Wrong | US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% |
176840 | 2016-01-20 | 2016-07-28 | NobodySpecial | 6 | Right | Hillary will win the democratic nomination. |
176841 | 2016-01-20 | 2016-01-24 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | Sam gets me sick. |
176850 | 2016-01-20 | 2016-12-07 | RoryS | 3 | Wrong | I will have a higher average score in math modules than essay modules this year |
176859 | 2016-01-21 | 2016-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | Right | Global bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak) |
176860 | 2016-01-21 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Right | C will learn how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. |
176861 | 2016-01-21 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | C will work out how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. |
176883 | 2016-01-24 | 2016-11-09 | bobpage | 10 | Wrong | Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect |
176894 | 2016-01-24 | 2026-01-01 | kuudes | 4 | Right | Unsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. |
176895 | 2016-01-24 | 2016-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Right | Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure |
176896 | 2016-01-24 | 2016-09-30 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Right | Summer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016 |
176912 | 2016-01-25 | 2016-01-26 | Helldalgo42 | 1 | Withdrawn | Will finish Managerial Accounting tasks within guessed amount of time (6 pomos) |
176921 | 2016-01-26 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 8 | Right | [2016] North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. |
176922 | 2016-01-26 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Wrong | [2016] SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: |
176925 | 2016-01-27 | 2016-10-01 | NathanMcKnight | 22 | Wrong | 2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. |
176926 | 2016-01-27 | 2016-07-18 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Wrong | Brokered convention. |
176927 | 2016-01-27 | 2016-07-01 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Wrong | Trump sweeps first four primaries. |
176928 | 2016-01-27 | 2016-07-31 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Wrong | The last two candidates vying for GOP nomination will be Cruz and Rubio. |
176929 | 2016-01-27 | 2016-03-03 | NathanMcKnight | 12 | Wrong | Rubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries. |
176959 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers |
176966 | 2016-01-28 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 14 | Right | No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 |
176967 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 10 | Right | No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 |
176968 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 7 | Right | North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt |
176969 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 |
176970 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state (Excluding the PA/Hamas, not excluding IS or Hezbollah) in 2016 |
176971 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now |
176973 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | Bitcoin will end 2016 higher than $500 |
176974 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Wrong | Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel |
176975 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 6 | Right | Dow Jones Industrial Average will not fall > 10% over the course of 2016. (It will end above 15,434) |
176976 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-03-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | US GDP growth in 2016 lower than in 2015 |
176977 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-03-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Right | US unemployment to be lower at end of 2016 than beginning |
176978 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 7 | Wrong | SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) |
176979 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Right | No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world in 2016 |
176980 | 2016-01-28 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Right | No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2016 |
176981 | 2016-01-28 | 2016-05-01 | themusicgod1 | 25 | Wrong | Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game |
176982 | 2016-01-28 | 2016-04-01 | Jach | 76 | Right | AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March |
176992 | 2016-01-29 | 2020-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | | Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production. |
176994 | 2016-01-29 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat will be ranked 9th(from 11th) in the world for solar photovoltaic total capacity in 2015. |
176995 | 2016-01-30 | 2017-01-30 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | Wrong | Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2016 real economic growth rate will be -2.99%. |
176996 | 2016-01-30 | 2018-01-31 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | Wrong | Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) - Brasil's 2017 real economic growth rate will be 0.87%. |
177003 | 2016-01-30 | 2016-11-09 | bobpage | 10 | Wrong | No 2016 Presidential candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes |
177004 | 2016-01-30 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | OVH will set up a west coast (North America) datacenter before 2017 and rent servers/VPSes in it to the general public |
177005 | 2016-01-30 | 2016-11-09 | bobpage | 19 | Wrong | The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election |
177006 | 2016-01-30 | 2016-11-09 | bobpage | 8 | Wrong | Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect |
177014 | 2016-01-31 | 2019-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Wrong | TPP ratified in Canada |
177015 | 2016-01-31 | 2016-02-29 | Michael Dickens | 9 | Right | Leo wins an Academy Award. |
177019 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-07-18 | bobpage | 7 | Wrong | Donald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) |
177020 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-02-08 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit the 3rd DAND project by the end of next weekend |
177021 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-02-15 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit the fourth DAND project by EOD 2/14 |
177022 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-02-22 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/21 |
177023 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-02-29 | ioannes | 1 | Withdrawn | I will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/28 |
177024 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-02-29 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit the sixth DAND project by EOD 2/28 |
177025 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-03-14 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit the 7th DAND project by EOD 3/13 |
177027 | 2016-02-01 | 2016-04-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I will go to Colorado in March 2016 |
177041 | 2016-02-02 | 2016-03-30 | lavalamp | 34 | Wrong | AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march |
177055 | 2016-02-03 | 2016-02-22 | Dylan.Kurda | 1 | | 9502008321: Multifocal GBM |
177056 | 2016-02-03 | 2016-02-22 | Dylan.Kurda | 1 | | 9771039943: ABC |
177057 | 2016-02-03 | 2022-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | | MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. |
177058 | 2016-02-03 | 2037-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. |
177059 | 2016-02-03 | 2017-01-01 | sdr | 2 | Wrong | Lesswrong.com will have major ( >3 pages' design structure) changes implemented, and live by the end of 2016 |
177060 | 2016-02-03 | 2017-06-01 | sdr | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to drop above 100K within 6 months of launch. |
177061 | 2016-02-03 | 2017-06-01 | sdr | 1 | Wrong | Conditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to be below 30K at least once within 6 months of launch. |
177066 | 2016-02-04 | 2016-06-01 | unexpectedEOF | 1 | Right | No portion of Mo-Pac express lanes will be completed and accepting traffic before June 1st, 2016. |
177067 | 2016-02-04 | 2018-01-01 | unexpectedEOF | 2 | Wrong | In the wake of the listeria outbreaks, at least one Blue Bell Creameries employee will face criminal charges by 2018 |
177068 | 2016-02-04 | 2023-01-01 | unexpectedEOF | 8 | | Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 |
177069 | 2016-02-04 | 2021-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. |
177072 | 2016-02-04 | 2025-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | ExxonMobil has predicted that global demand for coal will peak in about 2025 |
177093 | 2016-02-05 | 2016-11-01 | Shevek | 1 | Withdrawn | Angela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt |
177094 | 2016-02-05 | 2017-11-01 | Shevek | 2 | Right | Angela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten regulären Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt |
177109 | 2016-02-07 | 2020-01-01 | kuudes | 16 | Wrong | Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. |
177110 | 2016-02-07 | 2018-06-01 | gwern | 13 | Wrong | A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 |
177111 | 2016-02-07 | 2021-06-01 | gwern | 18 | | A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 |
177114 | 2016-02-07 | 2019-06-01 | gwern | 13 | Right | A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 |
177115 | 2016-02-07 | 2020-06-01 | gwern | 8 | Right | A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 |
177121 | 2016-02-08 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2018 |
177131 | 2016-02-09 | 2020-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project |
177134 | 2016-02-09 | 2020-01-01 | Houshalter | 13 | Wrong | When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. |
177135 | 2016-02-09 | 2016-12-02 | RoryS | 1 | Withdrawn | The money will be in my account on the scheduled date |
177136 | 2016-02-10 | 2016-02-10 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | xgboost will be next best |
177137 | 2016-02-10 | 2016-03-01 | EloiseRosen | 3 | Wrong | Somerville will declare another snow emergency before March 1. |
177138 | 2016-02-10 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Right | Gravitational waves will be detected this year. |
177143 | 2016-02-10 | 2016-02-17 | danielfilan | 1 | Right | I will get a cold in the next week. |
177170 | 2016-02-11 | 2020-05-10 | Waring | 12 | Wrong | The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) |
177209 | 2016-02-13 | 2018-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Wrong | Bharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018. |
177210 | 2016-02-13 | 2025-01-20 | jesselevine | 10 | | Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. |
177214 | 2016-02-13 | 2016-02-21 | silacoid | 8 | Wrong | Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary |
177215 | 2016-02-13 | 2017-01-01 | Temeraire | 12 | Right | North Korea’s government will survive the year [2016] without large civil war/revolt. |
177216 | 2016-02-13 | 2050-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 6 | | A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. |
177217 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 33 | Wrong | Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. |
177218 | 2016-02-14 | 2021-01-01 | unexpectedEOF | 3 | | Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021. |
177219 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-02-14 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | Wrong | Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia. |
177220 | 2016-02-14 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 10 | | World will eliminate malaria by 2030. |
177221 | 2016-02-14 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat will eliminate malaria by 2030. |
177225 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 6 | Wrong | There will be at least two more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177226 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 5 | Wrong | There will be at least three more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177227 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 5 | Wrong | There will be at least four more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177228 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 5 | Wrong | There will be at least five more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177229 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 6 | Wrong | There will be at least six more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177230 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 6 | Wrong | There will be at least seven more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177231 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 5 | Wrong | There will be at least eight more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177232 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 6 | Wrong | There will be at least nine more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 |
177237 | 2016-02-14 | 2016-02-15 | EloiseRosen | 4 | Right | Today there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy. |
177241 | 2016-02-14 | 2016-03-17 | equivrel-markets | 6 | Wrong | Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to below zero levels (i.e. a range that includes below zero levels) at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. |
177242 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | equivrel-markets | 3 | Wrong | Federal Reserve cuts the Federal Funds rate at least once in 2016. |
177243 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | equivrel-markets | 6 | Wrong | The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. |
177244 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | equivrel-markets | 4 | Wrong | The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016. |
177245 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | equivrel-markets | 4 | Wrong | The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016. |
177246 | 2016-02-14 | 2017-01-01 | equivrel-markets | 3 | Wrong | The S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016. |
177247 | 2016-02-14 | 2025-01-01 | bobpage | 8 | | Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 |
177258 | 2016-02-16 | 2022-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | | Italy will default on its debt by 2022. |
177259 | 2016-02-16 | 2022-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. |
177260 | 2016-02-16 | 2016-02-17 | SmartArse | 2 | Right | My husband, while sitting on PredictionBook, will ask me yet again what I think the odds are for Hilary or Bernie or Trump, even though he just asked me yesterday. |
177273 | 2016-02-17 | 2016-06-16 | jesselevine | 11 | Wrong | No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. |
177274 | 2016-02-17 | 2017-02-17 | jesselevine | 3 | Wrong | The price of a US postage stamp (1-ounce letter) will not increase within the next year. |
177275 | 2016-02-17 | 2017-01-01 | davidmanheim | 6 | | Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil |
177301 | 2016-02-18 | 2017-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 4 | Wrong | Land a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize --Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat |
177323 | 2016-02-20 | 2016-02-21 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | D will travel by car with A tomorrow. |
177324 | 2016-02-20 | 2016-02-21 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | D or A will leave something behind. |
177325 | 2016-02-20 | 2016-09-01 | Faceh | 9 | Wrong | Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. |
177328 | 2016-02-21 | 2016-02-22 | splorridge | 1 | Right | I will give D some food tonight. |
177329 | 2016-02-21 | 2016-04-21 | jesselevine | 4 | Wrong | Michael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate. |
177330 | 2016-02-21 | 2016-11-09 | jesselevine | 13 | Wrong | Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. |
177331 | 2016-02-21 | 2046-02-21 | arpanagarawal | 9 | Wrong | I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now |
177332 | 2016-02-21 | 2016-03-21 | Sahil | 5 | Right | I will not have eaten any meat intentionally before a month from now. |
177351 | 2016-02-22 | 2020-06-01 | Waring | 2 | Withdrawn | Conditional on no Brexit, George Osborne will be the next British Prime Minister |
177352 | 2016-02-22 | 2016-06-24 | jesselevine | 1 | Withdrawn | Britain separates from the EU (prediction based on the upcoming vote) |
177353 | 2016-02-22 | 2016-06-01 | jesselevine | 9 | Right | Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) |
177354 | 2016-02-22 | 2016-04-01 | jesselevine | 1 | Right | Ceasefire, "truce", OR no-fly zone imposed in full or in part, in or within an area in Syria or Iraq before April 1, 2016 |
177355 | 2016-02-22 | 2017-01-01 | jesselevine | 10 | Wrong | Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. |
177356 | 2016-02-22 | 2016-12-31 | jesselevine | 1 | Wrong | Destin Sandlin (host of Smarter Every Day) hired by NASA |
177357 | 2016-02-22 | 2020-01-01 | jesselevine | 1 | Wrong | One or more current SSRI or SNRI (includes newer generation serotonergics like Viibrid) becomes under investigation by FDA for misrepresentation of clinical trial results before 2020. |
177358 | 2016-02-22 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Russian Federation < 100 B Foreign Exchange reserves |
177361 | 2016-02-22 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 6 | Right | @paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 |
177362 | 2016-02-22 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 12 | Wrong | @realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 |
177363 | 2016-02-22 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Another 3+/-1 M$ goes into copyright board of canada in 2016 |
177368 | 2016-02-23 | 2016-11-30 | amexfireplace | 6 | Wrong | A terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 - possibly within 90d. |
177405 | 2016-02-24 | 2016-06-07 | LawrenceNewport | 15 | Right | Trump will win the Republican nomination |
177430 | 2016-02-26 | 2016-06-14 | LawrenceNewport | 29 | Wrong | Sanders will win the Democratic nomination |
177431 | 2016-02-26 | 2016-03-06 | raehik | 1 | Wrong | Evil Geniuses will win the Dota 2 Shanghai Major |
177436 | 2016-02-27 | 2016-04-15 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Wrong | At least one person will take offense to one of our 22nd century protest signs. |
177441 | 2016-02-28 | 2016-03-04 | Sniffnoy | 3 | Wrong | The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000, but David Sirlin will throw in the white and purple tokens anyway. |
177444 | 2016-02-28 | 2016-05-24 | azax1 | 1 | Wrong | I will run a 25:00 5k (treadmill) on or before May 24, 2016. |
177453 | 2016-02-29 | 2026-02-28 | Sniffnoy | 1 | | OOTS: The Monster in the Darkness is an Uvuudaum. |
177454 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-03-03 | silacoid | 3 | Wrong | Kasich will drop out of the republican primary race before March 3rd |
177460 | 2016-02-29 | 2266-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Not only does 9th planet exist, but 10th planet hiding in the Kuiper belt somewhere too |
177463 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-04-19 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Wrong | Bernie will drop out before New York primary. |
177464 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-06-07 | NathanMcKnight | 10 | Wrong | Bernie will drop out before California primary. |
177465 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-06-14 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | Right | Bernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary. |
177466 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-11-10 | HonoreDB | 7 | Wrong | Exactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. |
177468 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-11-10 | HonoreDB | 6 | Right | Exactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. |
177481 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | 3 billion Android users at any point in 2016 |
177482 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | 2016 global climate change reaches +10 degrees Celsius relative to 1996 |
177490 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Real ID act goes into phase iv, DHS REALID system forces all states to participate or bans citizens of them from international travel |
177493 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Gender gap in software industry worse in 2016 than 2009. |
177494 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Intel releases new socket standard/type in 2016 |
177495 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | > 0.77% of global energy produced from solar (thermal or electricity both count) |
177498 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Bitcoin network survives to block halving. |
177499 | 2016-03-02 | 2016-12-01 | NathanMcKnight | 11 | Wrong | Trump selects Christie as his running mate. |
177500 | 2016-03-02 | 2016-12-01 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Wrong | Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. |
177501 | 2016-03-02 | 2017-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | Greater than 15% of Republicans vote for Clinton or third party. |
177502 | 2016-03-03 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | HTML5.1 goes to PR/Rec status at w3c, complete with DRM/EME |
177503 | 2016-03-03 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | https://classic.ripplepay.com does does not survive 2016 |
177504 | 2016-03-03 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | This prediction will be judged "Wrong". |
177505 | 2016-03-03 | 2020-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | | Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020. |
177506 | 2016-03-03 | 2020-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. |
177507 | 2016-03-03 | 2016-12-31 | ghabs | 1 | | CFAR will report over 1000 alumni by the end of 2016. |
177508 | 2016-03-03 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | Wrong | US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US |
177509 | 2016-03-03 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | On Jan 1, 2017 there will be at most 3871377.25 bitcoin in addresses that have not been dormant for over a year |
177513 | 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-05 | bobpage | 1 | Right | On Friday I will find the HTC Vive's low resolution significantly distracting |
177516 | 2016-03-04 | 2016-08-01 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | I will get to 67kg by 1 August 2016 |
177517 | 2016-03-04 | 2017-01-01 | waveman | 3 | Wrong | I will still be below 68lg at the end of 2016 |
177518 | 2016-03-04 | 2018-01-01 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2017 |
177519 | 2016-03-04 | 2019-01-01 | waveman | 2 | Wrong | I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 |
177520 | 2016-03-04 | 2017-01-01 | waveman | 4 | Wrong | I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2016. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. |
177521 | 2016-03-04 | 2018-01-01 | waveman | 3 | Right | I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2017. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. |
177527 | 2016-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 9 | Wrong | Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. |
177528 | 2016-03-05 | 2017-01-01 | leo_gri | 1 | Wrong | Salmane ben Abdelaziz al-Saoud (Arabie Saoudite) will lose power before the end of 2016 |
177529 | 2016-03-05 | 2017-01-01 | leo_gri | 1 | Wrong | Nicolas Maduro will lose power before the end of 2016 |
177530 | 2016-03-05 | 2017-01-01 | leo_gri | 4 | Right | Dilma Roussef will lose power before the end of 2016 |
177531 | 2016-03-05 | 2017-01-01 | leo_gri | 1 | Wrong | Bouteflika will lose power before the end of 2016 |
177532 | 2016-03-05 | 2017-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | | Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. |
177533 | 2016-03-05 | 2017-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | | Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split. |
177534 | 2016-03-05 | 2017-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | | Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split. |
177535 | 2016-03-05 | 2016-03-11 | Ludgar | 1 | Right | I am going to be called for an interview for a job |
177538 | 2016-03-06 | 2029-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 --Bloomberg New Energy Finance |
177539 | 2016-03-06 | 2030-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | 55% of CO² emitted in 2030 will be produced by states that have reached peak levels --World Resources Institute |
177540 | 2016-03-06 | 2035-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below 2 °C. |
177541 | 2016-03-06 | 2040-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | | Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. |
177542 | 2016-03-06 | 2016-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Wrong | Boko Haram will be defeated this year. |
177543 | 2016-03-06 | 2017-01-01 | leo_gri | 2 | Wrong | Tsipras will lose power before the end of 2016 |
177544 | 2016-03-06 | 2017-01-01 | leo_gri | 5 | Wrong | Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 |
177547 | 2016-03-07 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Wrong | Full (infant) human mind provably fully simulatable on any amount of extant hardware |
177548 | 2016-03-07 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | There will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can go to specific parts of the house and clean those parts. |
177549 | 2016-03-07 | 2025-01-01 | Temeraire | 2 | | UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world. |
177550 | 2016-03-07 | 2025-01-01 | Temeraire | 2 | | UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with |
177551 | 2016-03-07 | 2025-01-01 | Temeraire | 3 | | UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research) |
177552 | 2016-03-07 | 2025-01-01 | Temeraire | 3 | | Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way - e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. |
177553 | 2016-03-07 | 2017-01-01 | Temeraire | 1 | Right | I will not have the new chair permanently taken away from me during 2016 |
177556 | 2016-03-08 | 2018-01-01 | artir | 3 | Right | Snokes is not Darth Plegueia |
177557 | 2016-03-08 | 2020-01-01 | jesselevine | 1 | | >0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020) |
177558 | 2016-03-08 | 2016-11-16 | NathanMcKnight | 13 | Wrong | Romney runs third party. |
177559 | 2016-03-08 | 2016-11-16 | NathanMcKnight | 15 | Wrong | Romney is GOP nominee. |
177560 | 2016-03-08 | 2016-07-03 | Temeraire | 1 | Right | The Balseraphs will not succeed in landing a single unit on the Amurite home continent. |
177565 | 2016-03-08 | 2017-01-01 | Chri | 1 | Right | I will have at least 365 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016 |
177574 | 2016-03-09 | 2016-07-22 | sole21000 | 18 | Right | Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination |
177575 | 2016-03-09 | 2016-07-26 | sole21000 | 30 | Right | Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination |
177581 | 2016-03-09 | 2025-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | Bharat's millionaires,multi millionaires, UHNWI ($30 M+), centa-millionaires(100 M+), billionaires will at least double from 2015-2025. -- The Wealth Report,Knight Frank. |
177586 | 2016-03-10 | 2017-01-01 | jesselevine | 2 | Right | Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 55 or higher. |
177587 | 2016-03-10 | 2017-01-01 | jesselevine | 2 | Wrong | Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 60 or higher. |
177591 | 2016-03-10 | 2016-03-15 | rhaps0dy | 1 | Withdrawn | AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Lee Sedol |
177592 | 2016-03-10 | 2018-01-01 | c0rw11 | 7 | Wrong | No human will win at Go again against a top AI |
177593 | 2016-03-10 | 2017-10-03 | RoryS | 11 | Wrong | I will not get SJS from modafinil |
177598 | 2016-03-11 | 2016-03-15 | earthbound01 | 9 | Wrong | AlphaGo will beat Lee Sodol in the three remaining matches of their initial 5. |
177608 | 2016-03-11 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 15 | Right | Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo |
177609 | 2016-03-11 | 2017-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 9 | Right | AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. |
177610 | 2016-03-11 | 2018-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 6 | Wrong | AlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games). |
177611 | 2016-03-11 | 2025-01-01 | danpop | 9 | | By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. |
177612 | 2016-03-11 | 2016-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | I will acquire the 2 needed prerequisites to start work at my new job without incident |
177613 | 2016-03-11 | 2017-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Assuming I start the new job successfully, after one year from the first day of work I will find it a more rewarding use of my life than my old contracting job, well worth quitting for |
177618 | 2016-03-11 | 2016-03-12 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | D and I will walk to Ely tonight |
177621 | 2016-03-12 | 2018-12-31 | artir | 4 | Wrong | There will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018. |
177622 | 2016-03-12 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | No snow in may in #tbay |
177623 | 2016-03-12 | 2016-04-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | no more blizzards in march in #tbay |
177624 | 2016-03-12 | 2016-11-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Right | Vancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016 |
177657 | 2016-03-15 | 2016-03-16 | waveman | 5 | Wrong | Lee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo |
177660 | 2016-03-15 | 2016-03-16 | jesselevine | 3 | Wrong | Donald Trump sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) |
177663 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-03-23 | facetofacestudy | 3 | Wrong | Is Any one try online class with www.facetofacestudy.com ?? |
177669 | 2016-03-16 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Warren Buffet will claim that the "weapons of financial mass destruction" have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide. |
177670 | 2016-03-16 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Right | I will replace my laptop in 2017. |
177671 | 2016-03-16 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Peter Todd will agree Ripple Labs has released all necessary source code, including all validator code, to be "Open Source" |
177672 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Sask Party Majority Government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 |
177673 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Sask Party Minority in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 |
177674 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | NDP full wipe out in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 |
177675 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | NDP minority government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 |
177676 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Liberal MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016 |
177677 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Green Party MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016 |
177678 | 2016-03-17 | 2016-03-18 | Raahul_Kumar | 2 | Right | Soyuz TMA-20M spacecraft carrying the International Space Station crew of cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Oleg Skripochka and astronaut Jeffrey Williams will reach ISS. |
177679 | 2016-03-17 | 2100-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Right | Someone else will judge the outcome of this prediction |
177680 | 2016-03-17 | 2017-04-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | My upcoming train trip is delayed over 6.5 hours. |
177681 | 2016-03-17 | 2016-04-16 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | At least one of my Inter-Library Loan requests come in while I'm out of the city travelling |
177687 | 2016-03-19 | 2041-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | | USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt --Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University. |
177688 | 2016-03-19 | 2040-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 1 | | European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually. |
177692 | 2016-03-20 | 2017-01-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | On Jan 1, 2017 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2016.) |
177694 | 2016-03-20 | 2019-01-01 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | On Jan 1, 2019 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2018.) |
177696 | 2016-03-20 | 2019-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 15 | Wrong | In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. |
177697 | 2016-03-20 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Fundamental Change to Debian Release Structure: No Longer Offers Both Stable & Testing Releases |
177698 | 2016-03-20 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Debian Stretch goes Stable |
177699 | 2016-03-20 | 2018-01-01 | daniel74f | 2 | Wrong | Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 |
177706 | 2016-03-21 | 2016-12-16 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | Trump takes fewer electoral votes than Goldwater. |
177714 | 2016-03-22 | 2016-04-01 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit my upcoming project by April 1, 2016 |
177715 | 2016-03-22 | 2016-04-05 | ioannes | 1 | Withdrawn | I submit my upcoming project by EOD Tuesday, 4/5 |
177716 | 2016-03-22 | 2016-04-08 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I will submit my upcoming project by EOD Friday, 4/8 |
177717 | 2016-03-22 | 2016-05-01 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I finish my nanodegree by the end of April 2016 |
177718 | 2016-03-22 | 2016-05-16 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I finish my nanodegree program by EOD 5/15 |
177719 | 2016-03-23 | 2017-03-23 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Right | Sydney from Grrlpower will get another level-up before March 22, 2017 (real time). |
177720 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-12-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | Falcon Heavy test flight by November 30, 2016 |
177721 | 2016-03-23 | 2017-01-16 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | Falcon Heavy test flight by January 15, 2017 |
177722 | 2016-03-23 | 2018-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Wrong | Falcon Heavy test flight by end of 2017 |
177723 | 2016-03-23 | 2019-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 7 | Wrong | AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 |
177726 | 2016-03-23 | 2018-01-16 | ioannes | 1 | Right | GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by December 2017 |
177729 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-11-13 | jesselevine | 2 | Wrong | 2017 US Congress SENATE to be controlled by democrats. |
177730 | 2016-03-23 | 2020-01-01 | splorridge | 16 | Wrong | Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. |
177731 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-04-03 | JoshuaZ | 4 | Wrong | UMaine Machias will offer me a tenure track position before April 2. |
177732 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-04-03 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | UMaine Machias will offer me a non-tenure track lecture position before April 2. |
177733 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-05-28 | Andrew MacFie | 1 | Wrong | Barcelona wins 2016 Champions League |
177734 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-05-28 | Andrew MacFie | 5 | Right | Real Madrid wins 2016 Champions League |
177735 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-05-28 | Andrew MacFie | 5 | Wrong | Manchester City wins 2016 Champions League |
177736 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-05-28 | Andrew MacFie | 6 | Wrong | Atletico Madrid wins 2016 Champions League |
177737 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-05-28 | Andrew MacFie | 2 | Wrong | PSG wins 2016 Champions League |
177738 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-05-28 | Andrew MacFie | 1 | Wrong | Benfica wins 2016 Champions League |
177739 | 2016-03-23 | 2016-05-28 | Andrew MacFie | 2 | Wrong | Wolfsburg wins 2016 Champions League |
177740 | 2016-03-23 | 2023-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 8 | | AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 |
177741 | 2016-03-24 | 2016-05-24 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | LambdaConf will uninvite Curtis Yarvin before the conference begins |
177742 | 2016-03-24 | 2016-11-08 | ren | 4 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. |
177745 | 2016-03-24 | 2016-11-16 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Right | Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. |
177748 | 2016-03-25 | 2016-08-16 | jesselevine | 8 | Right | Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. |
177749 | 2016-03-25 | 2016-06-16 | jesselevine | 2 | Wrong | Next MacBook Pro release excludes 3.5mm headphone jack or becomes incorporated in a different IO port. |
177750 | 2016-03-25 | 2016-06-16 | jesselevine | 2 | Right | Apple makes significant changes to display technology of future iPhone (i.e. OLED, extends to edge of phone, different glass, Tupac hologram capability) |
177751 | 2016-03-25 | 2021-03-25 | jesselevine | 1 | | A major fast food restaurant, or a 3rd-party company attempts drone delivery within 5 years. (Judgment right if available in more than one area) |
177752 | 2016-03-25 | 2017-03-25 | jesselevine | 5 | | Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. |
177753 | 2016-03-25 | 2023-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | | A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man |
177754 | 2016-03-25 | 2017-05-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | Before May 2017 there will be a sub-$1000 (USD, pre-tax/shipping) VR HMD with >= 2K pixels (either direction) per eye, shipping to at least some of the general public |
177760 | 2016-03-27 | 2016-07-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 3 | Right | IRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched. |
177761 | 2016-03-27 | 2016-12-16 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Wrong | Iraqi government will retake Mosul from Islamic State this year. |
177762 | 2016-03-27 | 2016-12-25 | Raahul_Kumar | 5 | Wrong | Syrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year. |
177789 | 2016-04-02 | 2016-04-02 | Qwonvo | 1 | Wrong | I will fall asleep in the wedding ceremony. |
177790 | 2016-04-02 | 2016-04-03 | Qwonvo | 1 | Right | X will make <5 signs of anger this evening. |
177791 | 2016-04-02 | 2016-04-02 | Qwonvo | 1 | Right | X will make >2 derogatory statements concerning religion. |
177799 | 2016-04-03 | 2017-01-01 | jesselevine | 10 | Wrong | Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. |
177809 | 2016-04-04 | 2019-04-04 | Sniffnoy | 4 | Wrong | "Skulk" will be an evergreen keyword in Magic: The Gathering within 3 years. |
177810 | 2016-04-04 | 2066-04-05 | two2thehead | 8 | | Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. |
177814 | 2016-04-05 | 2016-04-20 | jesselevine | 8 | Right | Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 |
177815 | 2016-04-05 | 2016-04-20 | jesselevine | 3 | Right | Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 |
177818 | 2016-04-06 | 2018-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Wrong | UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates |
177819 | 2016-04-06 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | SaskTel goes on strike |
177821 | 2016-04-06 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | SaskTel is legislated back to work as "Essential Services" |
177822 | 2016-04-06 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | SaskTel lays off at least 100 full time employees. |
177823 | 2016-04-06 | 2020-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | STC is privatized |
177824 | 2016-04-06 | 2019-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | SaskTel privatized |
177825 | 2016-04-06 | 2020-04-20 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | At least one Sask Party MLA elected in 2016 put in jail |
177826 | 2016-04-06 | 2020-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 6183331e9007a573863190a476a3abb8 quits SaskTel |
177827 | 2016-04-06 | 2016-04-10 | ioannes | 1 | Withdrawn | I finish the ML Udacity lessons by EOD Saturday |
177828 | 2016-04-06 | 2016-04-25 | ioannes | 5 | Right | Hilary wins New York primary |
177829 | 2016-04-06 | 2016-04-25 | ioannes | 2 | Right | Trump wins New York primary |
177838 | 2016-04-07 | 2031-01-16 | trishume | 1 | | 4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses |
177843 | 2016-04-07 | 2016-05-30 | Leo | 1 | Wrong | Kings XI Punjab win 2016 IPL |
177845 | 2016-04-07 | 2066-04-07 | two2thehead | 2 | | Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical. |
177851 | 2016-04-08 | 2016-04-22 | splorridge | 21 | Wrong | David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. |
177854 | 2016-04-09 | 2016-11-10 | Bruno Parga | 9 | Wrong | The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. |
177855 | 2016-04-09 | 2016-11-09 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2.4% of the popular vote in New Hampshire. |
177856 | 2016-04-09 | 2037-12-31 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. |
177857 | 2016-04-09 | 2037-12-31 | Bruno Parga | 4 | | Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded). |
177870 | 2016-04-11 | 2016-04-17 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I complete at least one "completionist" cycle this week |
177873 | 2016-04-11 | 2016-11-10 | jesselevine | 3 | Wrong | Republican candidate loses with >191 votes. |
177877 | 2016-04-11 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Avogadro project fixes value of the Kilogram before Planck constant is set in 2017 |
177878 | 2016-04-12 | 2018-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) |
177879 | 2016-04-12 | 2018-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878 |
177880 | 2016-04-12 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 24% or more of coral reefs in asia are gone relative to 2007 |
177881 | 2016-04-12 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 8 | Wrong | Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence |
177889 | 2016-04-13 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Commercially available hard disks utilize heat-assisted magnetic recording |
177890 | 2016-04-13 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Over 30% of Canadians 2 payments or more behind on mortgage payments at any point in 2017 |
177891 | 2016-04-13 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate over 2.5% in 2017 |
177892 | 2016-04-14 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Ampyx prototype AP3 deployed for testing |
177895 | 2016-04-14 | 2019-10-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Sandia 10MW CO2 turbine tests success |
177896 | 2016-04-14 | 2017-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 8 | Wrong | Texas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election. |
177897 | 2016-04-14 | 2017-12-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Burr And Feinstein Anti-Perfect-Forward-Encryption bill passes |
177901 | 2016-04-15 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Law Students commonly use IBM's Watson |
177905 | 2016-04-15 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | 8 million accounts on ripple networks |
177908 | 2016-04-15 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 8 | Wrong | Civil war in Saudi Arabia |
177909 | 2016-04-15 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | 90% of web traffic will be images |
177910 | 2016-04-16 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Wrong | US Newspaperocalypse |
177911 | 2016-04-16 | 2016-04-17 | trishume | 1 | Wrong | I will advance to round 2 of the 2016 Google Code Jam after round 1A. |
177912 | 2016-04-16 | 2016-08-01 | ioannes | 5 | Withdrawn | If the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination |
177934 | 2016-04-18 | 2025-06-22 | Paul.David.Carr | 13 | | 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon |
177937 | 2016-04-19 | 2020-12-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | "President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay." |
177938 | 2016-04-19 | 2017-09-20 | RoryS | 1 | | I will do a postgrad degree in neuroscience or cognitive science in 2017-18 |
177939 | 2016-04-19 | 2017-09-20 | RoryS | 1 | | I will do a postgrad degree in computer science in 2017-18 |
177940 | 2016-04-19 | 2017-09-20 | RoryS | 1 | | I will do a postgrad degree in philosophy in 2017-18 |
177941 | 2016-04-19 | 2017-09-20 | RoryS | 1 | | I will do a postgrad degree in anthropology in 2017-18 |
177942 | 2016-04-19 | 2016-06-12 | raehik | 2 | Wrong | The Dota 2 6.87 patch will not come out before the Manila Major is over. |
177950 | 2016-04-20 | 2018-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Russia Bans Bitcoin |
177951 | 2016-04-21 | 2400-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Abrupt drop off found in space dust sizes above 2.176 × 10E−5 g |
177952 | 2016-04-21 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | I will finish Stephen's Sausage Roll before 2018 |
177963 | 2016-04-24 | 2016-05-01 | RoryS | 1 | Wrong | T will reciprocate for R |
177972 | 2016-04-25 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | None of the hackathon (Consensus 2016) winners include a threat model as part of their entry. |
177973 | 2016-04-25 | 2016-07-01 | brslvrsl | 2 | Wrong | Contigent on the Brexit vote beeing >50% for UK leaving the EU, the Pound Sterling will have lost 25% of current (April 25) value within a week after the vote. |
177974 | 2016-04-25 | 2016-10-24 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | J will get 50 catches of 4 balls in the next six months. |
177975 | 2016-04-25 | 2016-07-25 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | M will get 50 catches of 3 balls in the next three months |
177979 | 2016-04-26 | 2026-04-26 | jesselevine | 3 | | In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the "PAUSE" key |
177980 | 2016-04-26 | 2030-01-01 | sflicht | 3 | | The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. |
177984 | 2016-04-26 | 2024-12-31 | Paul.David.Carr | 12 | | More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. |
177986 | 2016-04-26 | 2025-06-22 | Paul.David.Carr | 4 | | First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid. |
177987 | 2016-04-26 | 2066-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | A male or female friend of mine will marry a man, only to have it revealed later that he's transitioning to being a woman [in that order] |
177988 | 2016-04-26 | 2031-04-26 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent |
177996 | 2016-04-28 | 2020-01-01 | muflax | 2 | | ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) |
177997 | 2016-04-28 | 2019-01-01 | sflicht | 10 | Wrong | SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. |
177998 | 2016-04-28 | 2021-01-01 | sflicht | 12 | | SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 |
178009 | 2016-04-29 | 2020-01-01 | Paul.David.Carr | 3 | Right | Nokia will no longer make phones for any market by start of 2020 |
178010 | 2016-04-29 | 2022-02-28 | Paul.David.Carr | 5 | | The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) |
178011 | 2016-04-29 | 2030-01-01 | Paul.David.Carr | 1 | | Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028 |
178015 | 2016-04-30 | 2023-04-02 | AdamSmith | 2 | | UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals. |
178024 | 2016-05-01 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Wrong | Civil War in Venezuela |
178025 | 2016-05-02 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Asoiaf: Neln Fgnex vf encrq ol gur znal snprq tbq. |
178026 | 2016-05-02 | 2019-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | ASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf |
178027 | 2016-05-02 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | ASOIAF : Zrrerra snyyf gb fyniref, Zvffnaqrv rafynirq |
178035 | 2016-05-02 | 2016-07-09 | ioannes | 1 | Right | Trump wins California |
178038 | 2016-05-02 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. |
178046 | 2016-05-03 | 2016-05-04 | Capla | 2 | Wrong | Today, since I am integrated and centered now, I will get done all of my daily tasks. |
178047 | 2016-05-03 | 2016-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | 'Some old coins will move, but they will only be "loosely" linked to Satoshi' |
178048 | 2016-05-03 | 2016-05-04 | jesselevine | 1 | Right | Sanders to upset Clinton in the Indiana primary |
178052 | 2016-05-04 | 2017-02-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton 100% mandatory evacuations due to fire |
178053 | 2016-05-04 | 2016-11-16 | NathanMcKnight | 9 | Right | Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. |
178054 | 2016-05-04 | 2016-11-16 | NathanMcKnight | 6 | Right | Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. |
178055 | 2016-05-04 | 2016-06-08 | docskalski | 7 | Wrong | Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote |
178060 | 2016-05-04 | 2017-02-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by F5 tornado |
178062 | 2016-05-04 | 2016-05-31 | mrmrpotatohead | 6 | Wrong | To "prove" he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. |
178063 | 2016-05-05 | 2016-11-09 | jesselevine | 3 | Withdrawn | Hillary Clinton is forced (called) to testify about private email server before the general election. |
178066 | 2016-05-06 | 2017-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Lives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016 |
178069 | 2016-05-06 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users |
178070 | 2016-05-06 | 2016-08-16 | ioannes | 3 | Wrong | Kasich is Trump's VP pick |
178071 | 2016-05-06 | 2016-08-16 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | Jeff Sessions is Trump's VP pick |
178072 | 2016-05-06 | 2016-08-16 | ioannes | 11 | Wrong | Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) |
178073 | 2016-05-06 | 2016-08-16 | ioannes | 9 | Wrong | Trump's VP pick is a woman. |
178074 | 2016-05-06 | 2016-08-16 | ioannes | 9 | Wrong | Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). |
178077 | 2016-05-07 | 2026-01-01 | sflicht | 2 | | By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces. |
178078 | 2016-05-08 | 2017-02-01 | themusicgod1 | 8 | Wrong | President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State |
178079 | 2016-05-08 | 2017-02-01 | themusicgod1 | 9 | Wrong | FBI/CIA orchestrated "massive false flag tragedy" happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected |
178091 | 2016-05-10 | 2022-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | DRM-free games now selling more copies than DRM-encumbered ones |
178092 | 2016-05-10 | 2027-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | 2026: Last DRM-spewing company closes down. People once again share media w/o technological barricades |
178097 | 2016-05-10 | 2017-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 3 | Wrong | Trump will take fewer than 210 electoral votes in 2016 election. |
178098 | 2016-05-10 | 2017-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 2 | Wrong | Trump will take fewer than 170 electoral votes in 2016 election. |
178103 | 2016-05-12 | 2016-05-14 | bobpage | 1 | Withdrawn | Legitimate winning bid for George Zimmerman's PF-9 will be >= $1M USD |
178104 | 2016-05-12 | 2016-05-14 | bobpage | 1 | Withdrawn | Legitimate winning bid for George Zimmerman's PF-9 will be >= $10M USD |
178114 | 2016-05-13 | 2016-07-01 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Withdrawn | I will be promoted to a "manager" title by July 1. |
178192 | 2016-05-18 | 2016-05-25 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Right | Carl Shulman will point out something I did wrong on my quantitative models post. |
178198 | 2016-05-18 | 2019-01-02 | chemotaxis101 | 3 | Right | Presidente interino MT será conduzido à condição de Presidente da República *e* exercerá seu mandato até o final. |
178204 | 2016-05-18 | 2016-12-01 | ioannes | 8 | Right | A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. |
178205 | 2016-05-18 | 2016-05-18 | RoryS | 2 | Wrong | Liverpool will win against Sevilla |
178222 | 2016-05-20 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | >=1.6 million human genomes sequenced |
178223 | 2016-05-20 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Vaselgel makes it to market by 2017 |
178224 | 2016-05-21 | 2017-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | Right | 2016 to be the warmest year ever |
178225 | 2016-05-21 | 2018-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | Wrong | 2017 to be the warmest year ever |
178226 | 2016-05-21 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 |
178227 | 2016-05-21 | 2045-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category) |
178228 | 2016-05-21 | 2066-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category) |
178229 | 2016-05-21 | 2017-01-01 | InquilineKea | 4 | Wrong | Boston will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 |
178230 | 2016-05-21 | 2017-01-01 | InquilineKea | 5 | Wrong | NYC will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 |
178231 | 2016-05-21 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | GDF-11 to be demonstrated to convincingly increase lifespan by 2025 |
178232 | 2016-05-21 | 2027-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase *average* lifespan in dogs by 2026 |
178233 | 2016-05-21 | 2040-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy |
178234 | 2016-05-21 | 2025-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan |
178235 | 2016-05-21 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | cannabinoids to be demonstrated to increase lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 |
178236 | 2016-05-21 | 2017-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Age of Empires II HD: The African Kingdoms will be on sale for under $3 on any day during 2016 |
178237 | 2016-05-21 | 2017-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Starcraft 2: Heart of the Swarm to be on sale for under $20 on any day during 2016 |
178238 | 2016-05-21 | 2017-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | Right | GTA V to be on sale for under $30 on any day during 2016 |
178239 | 2016-05-21 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 |
178240 | 2016-05-21 | 2040-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once) |
178241 | 2016-05-21 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul - to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 |
178242 | 2016-05-21 | 2018-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5 |
178243 | 2016-05-21 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) |
178244 | 2016-05-21 | 2025-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | "age of onset of 12 years" will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out |
178245 | 2016-05-21 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 |
178246 | 2016-05-21 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 |
178247 | 2016-05-21 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 3 | | Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 |
178248 | 2016-05-21 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects |
178249 | 2016-05-21 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | The DAO still exists / has a value of at least 1$ |
178250 | 2016-05-21 | 2016-05-30 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | STD tests come back positive |
178251 | 2016-05-22 | 2018-07-18 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Right | New Ghostbusters movie will make a profit |
178252 | 2016-05-22 | 2066-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in |
178253 | 2016-05-23 | 2021-05-22 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | I am banned from Facebook |
178256 | 2016-05-23 | 2021-05-22 | themusicgod1 | 6 | Right | I am banned from Predictionbook |
178278 | 2016-05-26 | 2016-12-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Trump's VP Pick: Carol Bartz |
178279 | 2016-05-26 | 2027-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 2017 Cloud Cover for continental US more than it was in 2007 |
178280 | 2016-05-26 | 2018-05-10 | olivia | 5 | Wrong | SpaceX will launch a Dragon or Dragon-derived vehicle to the surface of Mars in the 2018 launch window. |
178289 | 2016-05-27 | 2019-06-01 | Paul.David.Carr | 6 | Wrong | A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. |
178290 | 2016-05-28 | 2017-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 7 | Wrong | Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP |
178291 | 2016-05-28 | 2017-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 8 | Wrong | Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick |
178294 | 2016-05-29 | 2021-01-01 | InquilineKea | 12 | | Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 |
178295 | 2016-05-30 | 2016-07-04 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | LSH in season 6 |
178296 | 2016-05-30 | 2016-05-30 | wafflepudding | 1 | Wrong | Drugs are here |
178297 | 2016-05-30 | 2016-06-27 | HonoreDB | 4 | Wrong | Arya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6. |
178307 | 2016-06-01 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will buy a hidpi laptop for my personal use before 2019 |
178308 | 2016-06-01 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | In Apple's iPhone announcement in 2016, at least one new iPhone will have a True Tone display |
178309 | 2016-06-01 | 2016-11-10 | bobpage | 24 | Right | Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President |
178328 | 2016-06-03 | 2016-11-08 | Paul.David.Carr | 12 | Wrong | Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. |
178350 | 2016-06-05 | 2016-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Government of Nova Scotia releases Accessibility legislation that meets CCLA's approval |
178351 | 2016-06-05 | 2016-07-25 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | coinbaseUSD bitcoin price at least 1% higher a week after after block halving than it was before. |
178352 | 2016-06-05 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | bank of canada sets target for overnight rate 1.36% or higher |
178362 | 2016-06-06 | 2016-06-20 | Michael Dickens | 5 | Wrong | S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. |
178365 | 2016-06-07 | 2016-06-09 | RyanCarey | 1 | | 80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site. |
178366 | 2016-06-07 | 2016-11-09 | LawrenceNewport | 16 | Wrong | Hilary Clinton as next US President |
178367 | 2016-06-07 | 2066-06-07 | two2thehead | 5 | | Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. |
178377 | 2016-06-09 | 2016-06-09 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 1 |
178378 | 2016-06-09 | 2016-06-09 | qwerty314 | 2 | Right | Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 2 |
178379 | 2016-06-09 | 2016-06-09 | qwerty314 | 2 | Wrong | Hammersmith Underground is on boundary zone 1/2 |
178395 | 2016-06-12 | 2018-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Inflation rate in june 2017 higher than june 2016 in South Africa. |
178396 | 2016-06-12 | 2019-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa |
178397 | 2016-06-13 | 2019-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | "second attack" in Santa Monica either incorrect/didn't happen, or outright media/government fabrication |
178401 | 2016-06-14 | 2016-06-30 | WilliamKiely | 7 | Wrong | Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th |
178402 | 2016-06-14 | 2017-07-02 | Matt | 2 | Wrong | At least one other person will be tripped up by the Credence game question about "the" "A Christmas Carol" movie, a question that assumes that there should be only one film on this page: http://www.imdb.com/find?s=all&q=A+Christmas+Carol |
178411 | 2016-06-14 | 2016-11-10 | bobpage | 9 | Wrong | Gary Johnson will be the next elected President |
178441 | 2016-06-16 | 2016-12-17 | gwern | 10 | Wrong | Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. |
178442 | 2016-06-17 | 2016-07-29 | two2thehead | 5 | Right | Elizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign |
178443 | 2016-06-17 | 2016-07-29 | two2thehead | 12 | Right | A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign |
178448 | 2016-06-17 | 2016-06-18 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | bitcoinCAD up june 17 2016 |
178449 | 2016-06-17 | 2016-12-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Within two months of halving, bitcoinCAD price doubles |
178450 | 2016-06-17 | 2016-07-16 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | TheDAO heist on june 16 winds up forcing rollback/transactions reversed |
178451 | 2016-06-17 | 2017-01-01 | NathanMcKnight | 7 | Right | Stein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote. |
178452 | 2016-06-17 | 2016-10-01 | themusicgod1 | 14 | Wrong | Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP |
178459 | 2016-06-18 | 2017-06-18 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Withdrawn | TheDAO drainer is a bitcoin early adapter who is intentionally trying to take down ethereum in some sense |
178460 | 2016-06-18 | 2017-06-18 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Withdrawn | TheDAO drainer is a state agency, such as the CIA |
178461 | 2016-06-19 | 2018-01-01 | bitbatbot | 3 | | The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018. |
178462 | 2016-06-19 | 2017-01-14 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Wrong | Trump picks Newt Gingrich for VP |
178465 | 2016-06-20 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | ASOIAF Zbgure bs qentbaf unf frk jvgu lnen terlwbl |
178466 | 2016-06-20 | 2016-07-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | ASOIAF: gur nezl bs gur qrnq oernpu gur jnyy |
178472 | 2016-06-20 | 2050-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) |
178484 | 2016-06-22 | 2016-06-23 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | I read something more important than http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/occupy-heaven-potential-humanity-safeguard-future/ today |
178491 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-07-29 | two2thehead | 3 | Right | Julian Castro will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign |
178492 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-07-29 | two2thehead | 5 | Right | Cory Booker will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign |
178493 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-07-29 | two2thehead | 3 | Right | Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign |
178494 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-07-29 | two2thehead | 3 | Right | Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign. |
178495 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-07-29 | two2thehead | 5 | Right | Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign |
178496 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-06-25 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | Brexit margin of victory is <5% for remain |
178497 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-06-25 | ioannes | 3 | Right | Brexit margin of victory is <5% for leave |
178498 | 2016-06-23 | 2016-06-25 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | Brexit margin of victory is >5% for remain |
178505 | 2016-06-24 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 5 | Wrong | Boris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party |
178506 | 2016-06-24 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 6 | Right | Theresa May will be the next leader of the Conservative party. |
178507 | 2016-06-24 | 2020-01-01 | splorridge | 15 | Wrong | Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 |
178510 | 2016-06-24 | 2018-01-25 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Food scarce in UK: widespread hunger/empty supermarkets for at least a month(ie not single blip due to natural catastrophe) |
178513 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-23 | hoka | 1 | Withdrawn | I will do a startup in healthcare ! |
178515 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-23 | hoka | 1 | Withdrawn | I will do a startup in healthcare! |
178527 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Trump choice for VP is Mary Fallin |
178528 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Trump pick for VP is John Kasich |
178529 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Trump pick for VP is Ben Carson |
178531 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | Wrong | Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio |
178532 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Trump pick for VP is Bob Corker |
178533 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Trump VP Pick Brian Sandoval |
178534 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 10 | Right | Trump VP pick is Mike Pence |
178535 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | Wrong | Trump VP pick is Jeff Sessions |
178536 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Trump VP pick is Mia Love |
178537 | 2016-06-25 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 8 | Wrong | US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it |
178538 | 2016-06-25 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | commercial scale, "netpower" allam cycle plant completed & ready for operation |
178539 | 2016-06-25 | 2016-11-01 | ejlflop | 6 | Right | David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 |
178540 | 2016-06-25 | 2020-06-16 | ejlflop | 9 | Wrong | David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) |
178541 | 2016-06-25 | 2020-01-01 | jasticE | 7 | Wrong | The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU |
178542 | 2016-06-26 | 2016-06-28 | polyopticon | 1 | | Engaged MonJune27 - 45% opens, 2% clicks |
178543 | 2016-06-26 | 2017-06-26 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | (Game of Thrones spoilers) Prefrv oheaf qbja Xvat'f Ynaqvat va frnfba 6 be 7 |
178552 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 4 | Wrong | Jeremy Corbyn will resign over Brexit and the current Labour coup. |
178553 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | Labour will appoint an SNP MP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray |
178554 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | Labour will appoint a Labour MSP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray |
178555 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Right | Labour will appoint a Labour MP representing a non-Scottish constituency as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray |
178556 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | Labour will appoint a Labour MEP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray |
178557 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | Labour will appoint somebody who is not an elected politician as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray |
178558 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | Labour will not appoint a new shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray |
178559 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Right | There will be a Labour leadership election as a result of the aftermath of Brexit vote |
178560 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 5 | Right | Conditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot |
178561 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-06-01 | splorridge | 6 | Right | Conditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win |
178562 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | The Labour party will split |
178563 | 2016-06-27 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 4 | Wrong | The Conservative party will split |
178564 | 2016-06-27 | 2021-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 10 | | Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. |
178565 | 2016-06-27 | 2021-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 9 | | In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. |
178566 | 2016-06-27 | 2026-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | | Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. |
178576 | 2016-06-29 | 2201-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 5 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200. |
178577 | 2016-06-29 | 2301-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300. |
178578 | 2016-06-29 | 2401-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400. |
178579 | 2016-06-29 | 2501-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500. |
178580 | 2016-06-29 | 2601-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600. |
178581 | 2016-06-29 | 2701-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700. |
178582 | 2016-06-29 | 2801-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800. |
178583 | 2016-06-29 | 2901-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900. |
178584 | 2016-06-29 | 3001-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000. |
178585 | 2016-06-29 | 4001-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000. |
178586 | 2016-06-29 | 5001-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000. |
178587 | 2016-06-29 | 6001-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000. |
178588 | 2016-06-29 | 7001-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000. |
178589 | 2016-06-29 | 8001-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000. |
178590 | 2016-06-29 | 9001-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000. |
178591 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000. |
178592 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-24 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000. |
178593 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000. |
178594 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000. |
178595 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000. |
178596 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000. |
178597 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000. |
178598 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000. |
178599 | 2016-06-29 | 9999-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000. |
178600 | 2016-06-29 | 2016-11-10 | jesselevine | 4 | Right | California will vote "yes" on Proposition 64 in the 2016 elections, legalizing marijuana. |
178630 | 2016-07-01 | 2066-07-01 | two2thehead | 3 | | Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. |
178631 | 2016-07-01 | 2066-07-01 | two2thehead | 6 | | Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. |
178635 | 2016-07-01 | 2016-09-20 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | Stephen Crabb will be the next leader of the Conservative party |
178636 | 2016-07-01 | 2016-09-20 | splorridge | 4 | Wrong | Andrea Leadsom will be the next leader of the conservative party |
178637 | 2016-07-01 | 2016-09-20 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | Liam Fox will be the next leader of the Conservative party |
178656 | 2016-07-02 | 2017-01-01 | two2thehead | 3 | Wrong | The redacted 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 report will not be declassified in 2016 |
178657 | 2016-07-02 | 2016-07-08 | elephantower | 4 | Right | Turnbull will be Australia's next prime minister |
178675 | 2016-07-04 | 2016-11-08 | qznc | 26 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 |
178676 | 2016-07-04 | 2021-06-16 | two2thehead | 3 | Withdrawn | Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security |
178689 | 2016-07-06 | 2016-07-21 | Jenson | 4 | Wrong | Trump choice for VP is NOT Fallin, Kasich, Carson, Rubio, Corker, Sondoval, Pence, Sessions, Love, Gingrich, himself, or nobody. |
178695 | 2016-07-07 | 2016-07-19 | elephantower | 2 | Wrong | The Republican convention will pass a motion to unbind the delegates |
178698 | 2016-07-07 | 2017-07-16 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | 1 year after block halvening, main USD exchange price will be at least 4.61% higher than the main USD exchange price was at the time of the block halvening. |
178699 | 2016-07-07 | 2016-07-19 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Right | Contrary to game-theoretic concerns, miners will continue to mine bitcoin and the network will not collapse at the halvening due to lack of mining |
178700 | 2016-07-07 | 2016-07-16 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | d33a499b544fa29f0554866ad2db2454 is in active labour during the Bitcoin Halvening |
178706 | 2016-07-08 | 2016-08-10 | jesselevine | 4 | Wrong | The Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event. |
178709 | 2016-07-08 | 2066-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | 2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) |
178727 | 2016-07-08 | 2018-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | TTC makes its goal of 8$M more from metropass users in 2017 than in 2016. |
178728 | 2016-07-08 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | NASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD) |
178729 | 2016-07-08 | 2018-09-25 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | DirecTV and Amdocs publicly sign another agreement extending cooperation between two companies, or one buys the other |
178730 | 2016-07-08 | 2018-04-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | greater than 600,000BTC worth of payments occur from mobile devices during 2017, whether on bitcoin or other payment system |
178731 | 2016-07-08 | 2019-01-02 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | From Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2019, If I encounter any 10$ USD bills, more than half of them will have been printed since 2013 |
178732 | 2016-07-08 | 2018-10-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published |
178733 | 2016-07-08 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Andreessen Horowitz, August Capital still exists as a VC firms in 2018 both with greater or equal value on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_venture_capital_firms of 2016 (950M, 2500M) (or have merged with larger VC entity) |
178734 | 2016-07-08 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Wrong | "Battle suits" will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon |
178735 | 2016-07-08 | 2066-07-08 | two2thehead | 1 | | It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation |
178736 | 2016-07-08 | 2056-08-07 | RoryS | 3 | | William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies |
178768 | 2016-07-12 | 2020-12-31 | elephantower | 1 | | Morocco withdraws from Western Sahara by 2020 |
178769 | 2016-07-12 | 2016-12-31 | elephantower | 4 | Wrong | The world average of the 2016 democracy index will be higher than in 2015 |
178787 | 2016-07-13 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 4 | Wrong | Democrats will win 370+ electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election. |
178788 | 2016-07-13 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 7 | Right | A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate |
178792 | 2016-07-13 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | Owen Smith will be the next Labour leader. |
178793 | 2016-07-13 | 2016-10-01 | kuudes | 6 | Wrong | Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. |
178794 | 2016-07-13 | 2017-01-01 | kuudes | 6 | Wrong | Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. |
178795 | 2016-07-13 | 2017-07-01 | kuudes | 7 | Right | Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. |
178796 | 2016-07-13 | 2018-01-01 | kuudes | 7 | Right | Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. |
178797 | 2016-07-13 | 2017-01-01 | Dapple | 1 | Wrong | Augur (Ethereum prediction market) will launch in 2016 |
178798 | 2016-07-13 | 2017-05-14 | Paul.David.Carr | 1 | Right | Chelsea FC will win a Champions League place in 2016-2017 |
178802 | 2016-07-13 | 2020-12-31 | elephantower | 3 | Withdrawn | Conditional on a leadership election where Corbyn is not on the ballot, Labour splits into two parties |
178804 | 2016-07-14 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 6 | Right | The GOP will keep the senate in 2017 |
178811 | 2016-07-14 | 2017-02-15 | predictit | 5 | Wrong | Merrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat |
178812 | 2016-07-14 | 2016-12-31 | predictit | 3 | Right | Rajoy will be Spain's next prime minister |
178813 | 2016-07-14 | 2017-01-20 | predictit | 4 | Right | Paul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House |
178814 | 2016-07-14 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 4 | Right | Mia Love will be re-elected to the House of Representatives from Utah's 4th district |
178815 | 2016-07-14 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 3 | Right | Jim Justice will win the WV governor race in 2016 |
178816 | 2016-07-14 | 2016-07-22 | Jenson | 5 | Wrong | Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage |
178817 | 2016-07-14 | 2016-12-16 | blackRust | 3 | Right | Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked. |
178818 | 2016-07-14 | 2017-05-14 | blackRust | 5 | Right | Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. |
178819 | 2016-07-14 | 2021-01-16 | blackRust | 7 | | Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. |
178824 | 2016-07-15 | 2016-12-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 3 | Right | [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop |
178825 | 2016-07-15 | 2016-12-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 2 | Right | [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Sarah Michelle Gellar |
178826 | 2016-07-15 | 2016-12-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 1 | Wrong | [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Ana |
178827 | 2016-07-15 | 2016-12-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 1 | Wrong | [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Aaron |
178828 | 2016-07-15 | 2016-12-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 1 | Wrong | [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop but the body she wants is not Sarah Michelle Gellar, Ana, or Aaron. |
178846 | 2016-07-17 | 2016-07-19 | Chri | 1 | Wrong | TIME Stories will be KSdJ 2016 |
178847 | 2016-07-17 | 2016-07-19 | Chri | 1 | Wrong | Pandemic Legacy will be KSdJ 2016 |
178848 | 2016-07-17 | 2016-07-19 | Chri | 1 | Right | Isle of Skye will be KSdJ 2016 |
178924 | 2016-07-21 | 2016-10-16 | Shekerev | 3 | | I will pass my exams |
178958 | 2016-07-22 | 2018-01-16 | elephantower | 5 | Right | Theresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum |
178959 | 2016-07-22 | 2020-12-16 | elephantower | 4 | | Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020 |
178960 | 2016-07-22 | 2020-12-16 | elephantower | 4 | | Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards |
178961 | 2016-07-22 | 2018-12-16 | elephantower | 4 | Wrong | The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today |
178974 | 2016-07-24 | 2016-11-09 | Bruno Parga | 7 | Wrong | Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls. |
178975 | 2016-07-24 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 9 | | Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS |
178976 | 2016-07-24 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Wrong | Clinton elected and US civil war |
178977 | 2016-07-24 | 2016-07-25 | blackRust | 1 | Withdrawn | There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of August |
178978 | 2016-07-24 | 2016-09-30 | blackRust | 1 | Right | There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of September |
178979 | 2016-07-24 | 2016-10-31 | blackRust | 1 | Right | There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of October |
178988 | 2016-07-25 | 2020-07-24 | themusicgod1 | 11 | | France holds 'leave EU' referendum |
178989 | 2016-07-25 | 2021-07-24 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines |
178990 | 2016-07-25 | 2021-07-24 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Russian "peacekeepers" on the ground in Latvia |
178991 | 2016-07-25 | 2021-07-24 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries |
178992 | 2016-07-25 | 2023-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations |
178993 | 2016-07-25 | 2023-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania |
178994 | 2016-07-25 | 2024-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | | WWIII will include Turkey as a participant |
179013 | 2016-07-25 | 2020-01-16 | sungk2048 | 3 | Right | [Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2020 (continuous between 2016 and 2020). |
179041 | 2016-07-27 | 2016-07-26 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | this prediction will break > |
179042 | 2016-07-27 | 2017-07-26 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | this prediction will also break. [ You gotta test in production, that's where the action is ]. This is a test just like the last prediction > It's totally a test of whether the bug is triggerable. Are you triggered? d: :d :d d: |
179088 | 2016-07-30 | 2016-08-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | cd591c54d0bbf69025801fcddf4a85d9 |
179089 | 2016-07-30 | 2016-11-09 | matuschoma | 6 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton wins election. |
179090 | 2016-07-30 | 2016-11-10 | robirahman | 2 | Withdrawn | Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. |
179091 | 2016-07-30 | 2016-11-10 | robirahman | 5 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. |
179092 | 2016-07-31 | 2066-07-30 | two2thehead | 5 | Right | What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be *generally agreed upon* to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. |
179093 | 2016-07-31 | 2016-07-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | this prediction should definitely break then > _ > |
179094 | 2016-07-31 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 9 | | At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump |
179095 | 2016-07-31 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US |
179096 | 2016-07-31 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 8 | | In case Congress ever gets to actually charging President Trump with something sufficiently egregious to warrant Impeachment, a new war begins involving the US |
179101 | 2016-08-01 | 2041-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) |
179123 | 2016-08-02 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 2 | Right | Blunt (R-MO) will win re-election to the US Senate |
179124 | 2016-08-02 | 2016-11-08 | elephantower | 2 | Wrong | Republicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016 |
179125 | 2016-08-02 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 2 | Wrong | Republicans win between 218 and 230 house seats in 2016 |
179126 | 2016-08-03 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 4 | Wrong | The Democratic Party wins NC in the 2016 presidential election |
179127 | 2016-08-03 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 4 | Right | The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election |
179164 | 2016-08-05 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 2 | Right | The Democrats will win the Nevada senate race |
179177 | 2016-08-08 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will get 15 catches of five balls this year |
179178 | 2016-08-08 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Right | I will get 7 catches of seven balls this year |
179179 | 2016-08-08 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Right | I will get 8 catches of six balls this year |
179180 | 2016-08-08 | 2017-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Right | I will get 100 catches of four balls this year |
179195 | 2016-08-09 | 2016-10-08 | hoka | 5 | Wrong | One of John McCain or Paul Ryan will publicly withdraw support for Donald Trump in 2 months |
179196 | 2016-08-09 | 2016-12-16 | NathanMcKnight | 5 | Wrong | Clinton wins entire eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida. |
179213 | 2016-08-10 | 2016-08-11 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | weather will be shit today when I'm walking |
179214 | 2016-08-10 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 6 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton wins Georgia |
179215 | 2016-08-10 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 2 | Right | The Republicans win the 2016 Florida senate race |
179218 | 2016-08-11 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 1 | Right | Burr (R-NC) will be re-elected to the senate |
179219 | 2016-08-11 | 2038-08-11 | two2thehead | 1 | | It will be generally agreed that a meeting occurred between Trump and the Secret Service during 2016 August regarding his comments on the second amendment. |
179220 | 2016-08-11 | 2016-08-12 | sacred_datura | 1 | Right | Model will finish training before tomorrow moring and not crash. |
179221 | 2016-08-11 | 2016-11-08 | predictit | 5 | Wrong | Hillary wins South Carolina |
179222 | 2016-08-11 | 2016-12-16 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Wrong | Nate Silver's "Polls Only" model proves to be the most accurate of 538's three models on election day. |
179223 | 2016-08-12 | 2016-08-14 | Porejide | 1 | Right | Ted won't be able to provide me with a way to actually restrict the player universe in an ESPN fantasy football draft to remove the keepers in the next 48 hours. |
179226 | 2016-08-15 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Right | The next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female. |
179237 | 2016-08-16 | 2020-01-01 | sflicht | 4 | Wrong | Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. |
179305 | 2016-08-20 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use |
179306 | 2016-08-21 | 2016-08-21 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | joe responded |
179309 | 2016-08-21 | 2034-01-01 | bobpage | 6 | | Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 |
179310 | 2016-08-21 | 2017-03-02 | bobpage | 9 | Wrong | Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 |
179311 | 2016-08-21 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | I will buy an NVIDIA graphics card before 2018 |
179386 | 2016-08-26 | 2021-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | | Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. |
179387 | 2016-08-26 | 2021-01-16 | NathanMcKnight | 19 | | Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. |
179388 | 2016-08-26 | 2020-11-16 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | | Libertarian Party candidate gets into 2020 presidential debates. |
179416 | 2016-08-29 | 2022-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me. |
179434 | 2016-08-29 | 2017-01-01 | unexpectedEOF | 2 | Right | There will be more DUI crashes (injury and non-injury) in Austin, TX for the Labor Day 2016 period than the same period in 2015. |
179457 | 2016-08-31 | 2016-11-24 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | For the remainder of the 2016 Presidential Campaign, Trump will not have an approval rating higher than his bounce after the RNC |
179466 | 2016-09-01 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 13 | Right | at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank |
179472 | 2016-09-01 | 2017-07-16 | volis | 1 | Right | Reliance Jio 4G data plans will not cost more than 100 INR/GB in 2017. |
179473 | 2016-09-01 | 2016-09-02 | booradleytron | 1 | Right | finish this water |
179484 | 2016-09-02 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Marijuana decriminalized in canada in 2017 |
179485 | 2016-09-02 | 2017-09-02 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Wrong | I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 |
179496 | 2016-09-03 | 2019-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | gene swap does happen at HOPE 12 |
179517 | 2016-09-05 | 2016-09-08 | Sniffnoy | 1 | Wrong | Book 2 of Unsong will end with an interlude this week (September 7). |
179535 | 2016-09-07 | 2021-09-07 | Michael Dickens | 2 | | Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. |
179536 | 2016-09-07 | 2019-03-01 | Michael Dickens | 3 | Right | Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016. |
179539 | 2016-09-07 | 2018-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | "Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018" |
179540 | 2016-09-07 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | US + Russia only have 1,150 nuclear warheads as per START treaty |
179541 | 2016-09-07 | 2017-07-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | I will switch back to Firefox for my primary web browser on my desktop or laptop before 2017-07-01 |
179542 | 2016-09-07 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 |
179601 | 2016-09-11 | 2016-09-11 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | email was about grade |
179602 | 2016-09-12 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | 78da4c28c143411c49c808a02702de83 |
179603 | 2016-09-12 | 2026-04-29 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Harry Halpin on the payroll of, or otherwise compromised by the NSA/FVEY |
179604 | 2016-09-12 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton drops out of the presidential race due to health reasons |
179605 | 2016-09-12 | 2018-01-01 | btrettel | 3 | Wrong | I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018 |
179606 | 2016-09-12 | 2024-01-02 | btrettel | 6 | | The "Steamboat Willie" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier |
179607 | 2016-09-12 | 2016-09-13 | mmelewinsky | 1 | | Promised food at the Latrice Royale opening event Fall '16 by SJE in Trayes Hall will not appear until one hour after doors open (8pm EST) |
179638 | 2016-09-18 | 2016-11-08 | nelson.horsley@gmail.com | 7 | Wrong | Hillary will win the presidency |
179684 | 2016-09-22 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | FISA Section 702 renewed |
179685 | 2016-09-22 | 2019-12-31 | Michael Dickens | 4 | Right | At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. |
179686 | 2016-09-22 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 5 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017 |
179687 | 2016-09-22 | 2024-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago |
179708 | 2016-09-24 | 2018-12-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees "Anonymous are not terrorists" |
179749 | 2016-09-29 | 2020-01-01 | penten | 6 | Wrong | Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 |
179750 | 2016-09-29 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 4 | Wrong | Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017 |
179751 | 2016-09-29 | 2017-01-01 | penten | 3 | Wrong | Read 45 or more books this year |
179766 | 2016-09-30 | 2017-01-01 | berekuk | 2 | Wrong | We won't hire any new admins for Kocherga club in 2016 |
179767 | 2016-09-30 | 2016-11-01 | berekuk | 1 | Wrong | I'll conduct a training on nonviolent communication for 6+ people in October 2016 |
179768 | 2016-09-30 | 2016-12-01 | berekuk | 1 | Right | We'll conduct the third applied rationality workshop in Kocherga in October or November 2016 |
179769 | 2016-09-30 | 2017-06-01 | berekuk | 1 | Right | LessWrong.ru Slack chat won't move from Slack to another platform until June 2017 |
179770 | 2016-09-30 | 2016-12-30 | themusicgod1 | 6 | Wrong | Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties |
179793 | 2016-10-02 | 2019-01-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | By 2019 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). |
179794 | 2016-10-02 | 2016-10-05 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | On Monday I will successfully squat 315 pounds for 5 reps. |
179795 | 2016-10-02 | 2016-10-05 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | On Monday I will successfully bench 187.5 pounds for 3 sets of 3 reps. |
179796 | 2016-10-02 | 2016-10-30 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | My next two attempts to set 5-rep PRs on the bench press will both be successful. |
179797 | 2016-10-02 | 2017-02-01 | TheCometKing | 3 | Wrong | Hiveswap will be released by the end of January 2017 |
179798 | 2016-10-02 | 2050-01-01 | btrettel | 3 | | US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 |
179799 | 2016-10-02 | 2016-12-02 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | I manage to submit a National Security Consultation submission |
179803 | 2016-10-03 | 2016-10-04 | Capla | 1 | Right | I'll be free to meet with Andrew between 5 and 9 tomorrow. |
179804 | 2016-10-03 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 3-4 "do everything" companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services) |
179815 | 2016-10-04 | 2022-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | China's Cap and Trade system still up and running |
179816 | 2016-10-04 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | NASA InSight is launched successfully |
179826 | 2016-10-04 | 2016-10-15 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16 |
179831 | 2016-10-04 | 2016-10-05 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will weigh more tomorrow than I did today |
179832 | 2016-10-04 | 2016-10-05 | splorridge | 2 | Right | A's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine |
179833 | 2016-10-04 | 2016-10-05 | splorridge | 1 | Right | J will come into work tomorrow |
179834 | 2016-10-04 | 2016-10-05 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will come into work tomorrow |
179849 | 2016-10-05 | 2030-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | | Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher |
179857 | 2016-10-06 | 2017-06-01 | bobpage | 5 | Right | No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 |
179858 | 2016-10-06 | 2017-06-01 | bobpage | 7 | Right | No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about |
179859 | 2016-10-06 | 2017-06-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Magic Leap's AR device is available for immediate shipment to the general public before 2017-06-01 |
179860 | 2016-10-06 | 2017-06-01 | bobpage | 7 | Right | On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap |
179861 | 2016-10-06 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2017 |
179862 | 2016-10-06 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018 |
179863 | 2016-10-06 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2019 |
179864 | 2016-10-06 | 2020-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 |
179865 | 2016-10-06 | 2016-10-07 | bobpage | 2 | Withdrawn | PSA: There is an index of all public predictions at http://pbindex.neocities.org/ |
179871 | 2016-10-06 | 2016-11-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 1 | Right | [LoL Worlds] Albus NOX Luna makes it out of groups |
179872 | 2016-10-06 | 2016-11-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 2 | Right | [LoL Worlds] Korean team wins |
179873 | 2016-10-06 | 2016-11-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 1 | Wrong | [LoL Worlds] Chinese team wins |
179874 | 2016-10-06 | 2016-11-01 | PlacidPlatypus | 1 | Wrong | [LoL Worlds] NA team wins |
179875 | 2016-10-06 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 |
179876 | 2016-10-07 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | I will visit Japan before 2018 |
179877 | 2016-10-07 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will visit Japan before 2019 |
179878 | 2016-10-07 | 2036-10-07 | two2thehead | 2 | | Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them |
179879 | 2016-10-07 | 2036-10-07 | two2thehead | 4 | Right | Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor |
179880 | 2016-10-07 | 2026-10-07 | gwern | 19 | | Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross |
179881 | 2016-10-07 | 2016-12-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | Haseeb will visit me some time between November 25th and December 5th. |
179882 | 2016-10-07 | 2016-12-31 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Right | Jessica won't visit me before the end of the year. |
179883 | 2016-10-07 | 2016-10-15 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Withdrawn | My bike will still be at The Sheffield. |
179884 | 2016-10-07 | 2016-11-17 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Right | I spend less than $1000 next month. |
179885 | 2016-10-07 | 2016-11-17 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | I spend less than $900 next month. |
179886 | 2016-10-07 | 2016-10-14 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | I do at least 50 hours of pomos over the next week. |
179887 | 2016-10-07 | 2017-02-07 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | The orthotic makes my achilles peritendonitis better within 3 months. |
179902 | 2016-10-09 | 2017-10-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | I will clean up summer bike before summer, ie it won't sit covered in mud like the winter bike was during the summer |
179903 | 2016-10-09 | 2021-10-07 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers |
179904 | 2016-10-09 | 2017-01-15 | JoshuaZ | 10 | Wrong | Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 |
179907 | 2016-10-10 | 2016-10-10 | bobpage | 2 | Right | In tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both) |
179908 | 2016-10-10 | 2017-05-16 | hoka | 2 | Wrong | Donald Trump will loose the presidential election and launch a news media channel in 2017 |
179909 | 2016-10-10 | 2019-10-10 | penten | 4 | Wrong | It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. |
179910 | 2016-10-10 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 1 | Right | This BOE reference interest rate will be 0.5% or below at the end of 2017 |
179911 | 2016-10-10 | 2022-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting |
179912 | 2016-10-10 | 2024-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 16 | | 'President Mike Pence' |
179913 | 2016-10-10 | 2066-10-10 | two2thehead | 2 | | Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder |
179921 | 2016-10-11 | 2017-10-10 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | I will be banned from diasporg |
179931 | 2016-10-13 | 2016-10-13 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | Alex knows what the Monty Hall problem is |
179932 | 2016-10-13 | 2016-11-01 | penten | 1 | Wrong | S born before 1st November |
179933 | 2016-10-13 | 2016-12-01 | penten | 1 | Right | S born after 1st November |
179934 | 2016-10-13 | 2017-01-01 | penten | 1 | Right | I make more than 500gbp in non-work income by the end of the year |
179935 | 2016-10-13 | 2017-03-05 | penten | 1 | Wrong | I tracked our spending between 11th Feb 2017 and 4th March 2017 AND it is within 1000gbp |
179955 | 2016-10-14 | 2016-10-17 | btrettel | 2 | Wrong | I will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year |
179956 | 2016-10-15 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen |
179957 | 2016-10-15 | 2016-10-16 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Right | Tomorrow morning I will weigh more than I did this morning. |
179958 | 2016-10-15 | 2016-10-22 | Michael Dickens | 2 | Right | One week from today, I will weigh less than 89.5kg. |
179959 | 2016-10-16 | 2016-10-17 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs) |
179964 | 2016-10-17 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | Julian Assange died before this prediction was made |
179994 | 2016-10-20 | 2016-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Lucid Motors/Atieva launches a fully electric vehicle |
179995 | 2016-10-20 | 2021-10-20 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor |
179996 | 2016-10-20 | 2021-10-20 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor |
180014 | 2016-10-22 | 2016-12-22 | igorhorst | 3 | Right | Donald Trump will receive at least 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 US Presidential election. |
180015 | 2016-10-22 | 2016-11-08 | quanticle | 4 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. |
180018 | 2016-10-23 | 2016-10-29 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld - Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 206 or 207. |
180019 | 2016-10-23 | 2016-10-29 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist - Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 92 or 93. |
180020 | 2016-10-23 | 2016-10-29 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Best apologises or expresses regret to someone for something within pages 29-31. |
180021 | 2016-10-23 | 2016-10-30 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Fiction, Web Serial, Twig - Falconer's bird is incapacitated or dies during 14.15 or 14.16 |
180022 | 2016-10-23 | 2016-10-30 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Bob Dylan acknowledges his Nobel Prize in Literature in some fashion before the start of 2016-10-30 |
180026 | 2016-10-24 | 2026-10-25 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Timbuktu burned to the ground/leveled by group loyal to dalwa al islamyya |
180027 | 2016-10-24 | 2046-11-24 | JoshuaZ | 5 | | Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046 |
180032 | 2016-10-25 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | I will read 52 or more books in 2016 |
180035 | 2016-10-26 | 2016-11-08 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | Kim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day |
180056 | 2016-10-29 | 2021-10-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is |
180057 | 2016-10-29 | 2016-11-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | zcash price in bitcoin between [0.001, 500] BTC/ZEC |
180058 | 2016-10-29 | 2016-11-06 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Web Serial, Twig – Mauer is told about the Falconer's origin during 14.18 or 14.19 |
180059 | 2016-10-29 | 2016-11-06 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | UK Government agrees to take in more migrant children than previously planned before start of 2016-11-06. |
180060 | 2016-10-29 | 2016-11-05 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 208 or 209. |
180061 | 2016-10-29 | 2016-11-12 | jbeshir | 8 | Withdrawn | Politics - Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results. |
180062 | 2016-10-29 | 2016-11-05 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist – Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 94 or 95. |
180063 | 2016-10-29 | 2018-12-31 | Michael Dickens | 3 | Right | Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup. |
180066 | 2016-10-30 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | I will meet IRL anyone found via Tinder, before 2017 |
180067 | 2016-10-30 | 2030-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator |
180068 | 2016-10-30 | 2030-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 5 | | github still exists |
180069 | 2016-10-30 | 2046-10-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | github still exists |
180070 | 2016-10-30 | 2046-10-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator |
180076 | 2016-10-31 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is = 7 |
180077 | 2016-10-31 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is < 7 |
180078 | 2016-10-31 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is = 7 |
180079 | 2016-10-31 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is < 7 |
180080 | 2016-10-31 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 |
180083 | 2016-10-31 | 2017-01-01 | penten | 2 | Right | zcash price is below 0.4 BTC |
180084 | 2016-10-31 | 2017-01-01 | penten | 2 | Right | zcash price is below 1 BTC |
180085 | 2016-10-31 | 2019-01-01 | penten | 2 | Wrong | LP identifies as vegetarian by end of 2018 |
180086 | 2016-10-31 | 2031-10-31 | penten | 2 | | S identifies as vegetarian by 15 |
180098 | 2016-11-01 | 2100-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | | A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. |
180099 | 2016-11-02 | 2017-02-02 | two2thehead | 3 | Wrong | North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile in the last two months of 2016 |
180100 | 2016-11-02 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 2 | Wrong | Instapaper has shut down by end 2017 |
180113 | 2016-11-03 | 2029-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017 |
180114 | 2016-11-03 | 2026-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa. |
180115 | 2016-11-03 | 2017-01-14 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Clinton-traed iana or icann lobbying to permaremove wikileaks ability to use DNS |
180116 | 2016-11-03 | 2016-11-10 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | I will get a response from R before 2016-11-10 |
180117 | 2016-11-03 | 2016-12-02 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | Zac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election |
180118 | 2016-11-03 | 2016-12-02 | splorridge | 1 | Right | The Liberal Democrat candidate will win more votes than the Labour candidate in the Richmond Park by-election |
180119 | 2016-11-03 | 2016-12-31 | olimay | 1 | Wrong | I will be offered the position at PU EE. |
180127 | 2016-11-04 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | linux 3.2 no longer supported by kernel dev team |
180128 | 2016-11-05 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant closes |
180129 | 2016-11-05 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Flamanville 3 reactor startup |
180130 | 2016-11-05 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Construction of Musk Hyperloop will be ready for passengers by 2018 |
180131 | 2016-11-05 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | redefinition of Kg before planck's constant is fixed |
180134 | 2016-11-06 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Right | 0-15 faithless electors |
180135 | 2016-11-06 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | 16-32 faithless electors |
180136 | 2016-11-06 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Wrong | 0 faithless electors |
180137 | 2016-11-06 | 2016-12-06 | two2thehead | 4 | Right | Whoever wins the State of Pennsylvania will win the 2016 US Presidential Election |
180149 | 2016-11-07 | 2017-01-12 | HonoreDB | 14 | Right | At least one "faithless elector" in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. |
180150 | 2016-11-07 | 2016-11-09 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016 |
180151 | 2016-11-07 | 2017-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Massacre at Standing Rock, >50 people killed 2 weeks after election results decided |
180152 | 2016-11-07 | 2016-11-12 | NathanMcKnight | 4 | Wrong | Clinton wins by 5 points or more. |
180165 | 2016-11-08 | 2096-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | i live to use quell |
180170 | 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-12 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 210 or 211. |
180171 | 2016-11-08 | 2017-01-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | SpaceX launches (defined as lifting off the ground at a scheduled launch time, otherwise no success requirement) again before the end of 2016. |
180172 | 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-20 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Fiction, Webseries, RWBY - Yang puts on the prosthetic during Volume 4, Episode 4. |
180173 | 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-27 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal - In my multiplayer game of Alpha Centauri with the other Rattumblrites, I (jbeshir) win. |
180174 | 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-13 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - 15.2 is from the Lambs' perspective. |
180178 | 2016-11-09 | 2017-11-08 | themusicgod1 | 21 | Wrong | President Trump Dead/Impeached |
180179 | 2016-11-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | | Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court |
180180 | 2016-11-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 16 | | US presidents term limits abolished |
180181 | 2016-11-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | at least 2 political prisoners executed in US |
180182 | 2016-11-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 10 | | homosexuality criminalized in the US |
180183 | 2016-11-09 | 2017-02-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Obama Pardons Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump presidency |
180184 | 2016-11-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | | President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary |
180185 | 2016-11-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 9 | | America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea |
180186 | 2016-11-09 | 2017-06-01 | pkfalu92 | 2 | Right | I will graduate MS |
180187 | 2016-11-09 | 2020-01-20 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Withdrawn | One of the five things I predicted with Michael will come true during the next four years (detailed in comments). |
180188 | 2016-11-09 | 2016-11-16 | penten | 1 | Wrong | I will judge myself to be "very happy" next wednesday |
180189 | 2016-11-09 | 2016-12-09 | penten | 1 | Wrong | We will buy more clothes for S within a month |
180190 | 2016-11-09 | 2016-12-09 | penten | 1 | Wrong | We decide to change S's name in the next month |
180191 | 2016-11-09 | 2016-11-16 | penten | 1 | Right | S is induced |
180192 | 2016-11-09 | 2017-11-09 | themusicgod1 | 23 | Wrong | President Trump jailed |
180193 | 2016-11-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | United States pulls out of NATO |
180199 | 2016-11-10 | 2018-01-20 | JoshuaZ | 5 | Wrong | Trump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office. |
180200 | 2016-11-10 | 2018-05-10 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | 2nd US civil war over, bernie sanders brokers peace |
180201 | 2016-11-10 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond |
180202 | 2016-11-10 | 2016-11-09 | NathanMcKnight | 1 | Right | Wow. |
180203 | 2016-11-10 | 2021-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 14 | | There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. |
180206 | 2016-11-10 | 2017-02-01 | bobpage | 16 | Right | Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 |
180207 | 2016-11-10 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | #Calexit |
180208 | 2016-11-10 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | China floats the yuan |
180209 | 2016-11-10 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | US unilaterally attempts to takes over 1M$ USD from US-MEX remittances |
180210 | 2016-11-10 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 12 | Wrong | LePen elected president of france, 2017 |
180211 | 2016-11-10 | 2017-01-20 | bobpage | 3 | Right | I will receive a new passport before 2017-01-20 |
180231 | 2016-11-12 | 2016-11-12 | savolver | 1 | Right | Test 2. |
180232 | 2016-11-12 | 2016-11-12 | savolver | 1 | Right | Test 3. |
180233 | 2016-11-12 | 2016-11-12 | savolver | 1 | Wrong | Test 4 - Does this 30% probability show up in 70%? |
180234 | 2016-11-12 | 2017-02-12 | two2thehead | 3 | Wrong | Barack Obama recognizes Palestine |
180235 | 2016-11-12 | 2017-02-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | TPP Passes in US (specifically through lame duck president Obama) |
180237 | 2016-11-13 | 2017-01-15 | Vipul Naik | 4 | Right | The amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million. |
180238 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-02-03 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution). |
180239 | 2016-11-13 | 2021-01-01 | bobpage | 31 | | California will secede from the United States before 2021 |
180240 | 2016-11-13 | 2017-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 6 | Wrong | The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2017. |
180241 | 2016-11-13 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 12 | Right | The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before April 1, 2017. |
180242 | 2016-11-13 | 2020-12-31 | Vipul Naik | 3 | | The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station. |
180243 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 5 | Right | The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2018. |
180244 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-06-30 | Vipul Naik | 4 | Wrong | Justin Bieber's "Sorry" will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's "Gangnam Style" will. |
180245 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-06-30 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's "See You Again" will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's "Gangnam Style" will. |
180246 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-06-30 | Vipul Naik | 5 | Right | Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Justin Bieber's "Sorry" will. |
180247 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | Amazon Web Services will introduce an m4 (or later generation "m" type instance) with more RAM and cores than its current biggest m4 machine, m4.16xlarge, before January 1, 2018. |
180248 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | Amazon Web Services will drop the storage price for S3 standard storage in its US standard (N. Virginia) region between November 13, 2016 and January 1, 2018. |
180249 | 2016-11-13 | 2018-01-03 | Vipul Naik | 8 | Wrong | Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. |
180250 | 2016-11-13 | 2017-03-02 | Vipul Naik | 7 | Right | The total of grant amounts for grants announced by the Open Philanthropy Project by March 1, 2017, with the grant date listed as being in 2016, excluding GiveWell-recommended grants, will be over $50 million. |
180251 | 2016-11-13 | 2020-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 7 | Right | Uber will IPO before January 1, 2020. |
180252 | 2016-11-13 | 2016-11-25 | Vipul Naik | 7 | Wrong | Between 2% and 8% of the ~1500 respondents will answer "More than 50%" to my Google Surveys question "What proportion of the people currently physically present in the United States are foreign-born?" |
180253 | 2016-11-13 | 2017-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 5 | Wrong | As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's "Work from Home" will be the only YouTube video released in 2016 that has over a billion views. |
180257 | 2016-11-14 | 2016-11-21 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Waterstones removes the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 |
180258 | 2016-11-14 | 2016-11-21 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Amazon removes at least one listing of the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 |
180259 | 2016-11-14 | 2016-12-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, India - It is announced before 2016-12-01 that banks will accept old 500 and 1000 rupee notes, for exchange or for any other purpose, beyond 2016-12-30, either indefinitely or up to an extended deadline. |
180260 | 2016-11-14 | 2016-11-16 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - In 15.3, we get confirmation that the chief members of the Rank have cooperated. |
180263 | 2016-11-14 | 2020-12-01 | splorridge | 6 | | A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 |
180264 | 2016-11-14 | 2020-12-01 | splorridge | 6 | | A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 |
180265 | 2016-11-15 | 2030-01-01 | Dapple | 3 | | A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal |
180270 | 2016-11-15 | 2016-11-23 | bobpage | 3 | Right | Second Dell server will not need to be returned within a week |
180271 | 2016-11-15 | 2017-02-01 | bobpage | 3 | Right | Samsung 850 EVO will not be returned before 2017-02-01 |
180272 | 2016-11-15 | 2017-02-01 | bobpage | 4 | Right | Cisco switch will not be returned before 2017-02-01 |
180273 | 2016-11-15 | 2016-11-23 | bobpage | 2 | Right | Used iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-23 |
180274 | 2016-11-15 | 2016-11-25 | Vipul Naik | 7 | Wrong | GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Thursday, November 24, 2016 (Thanksgiving Day). |
180283 | 2016-11-16 | 2016-11-16 | elephantower | 2 | Right | over 20 people show up |
180284 | 2016-11-16 | 2017-02-01 | bobpage | 3 | Wrong | I will see fm this winter |
180285 | 2016-11-16 | 2016-11-19 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | I didn't just lose bitcoin |
180294 | 2016-11-17 | 2021-01-20 | splorridge | 4 | | Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. |
180295 | 2016-11-17 | 2021-01-20 | splorridge | 10 | | US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. |
180296 | 2016-11-17 | 2021-01-20 | splorridge | 5 | | Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. |
180297 | 2016-11-17 | 2021-01-20 | splorridge | 17 | | Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. |
180310 | 2016-11-17 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 8 | | At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US |
180333 | 2016-11-19 | 2016-12-06 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | CR's friend will get snow tires on his truck in time for CR to borrow it |
180340 | 2016-11-20 | 2016-11-29 | bobpage | 3 | Right | Refurbished iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-29 |
180351 | 2016-11-21 | 2021-01-01 | Osuniev | 9 | | Trump survives his presidency |
180354 | 2016-11-21 | 2018-02-01 | Osuniev | 10 | Wrong | 2017 will be the hottest year on record. |
180355 | 2016-11-21 | 2016-11-21 | rishika | 1 | Wrong | 1360-80 in SAT practice test C |
180380 | 2016-11-22 | 2016-12-23 | leo_grint | 2 | Wrong | Francois Hollande to enter french presidential race |
180381 | 2016-11-22 | 2017-01-22 | leo_grint | 2 | Wrong | Arnaud Montebourg wins french left wing primary. |
180393 | 2016-11-26 | 2017-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | As of January 1, 2017, there will be fewer than 50 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. |
180394 | 2016-11-26 | 2016-12-03 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 3, 2016. |
180395 | 2016-11-26 | 2016-12-10 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 10, 2016. |
180396 | 2016-11-26 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 5 | Right | As of April 1, 2017, there will be at least 45 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. |
180398 | 2016-11-26 | 2018-05-26 | Ben Doherty | 6 | Wrong | The next iPhone number will be 10, skipping 8 & 9. |
180406 | 2016-11-27 | 2017-04-01 | kuudes | 3 | Wrong | Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. |
180407 | 2016-11-27 | 2019-12-31 | Faceh | 9 | Right | Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. |
180410 | 2016-11-28 | 2017-01-15 | bobpage | 1 | Right | 24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will be returned before 2017-01-15 |
180411 | 2016-11-28 | 2021-01-01 | bobpage | 9 | | Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 |
180414 | 2016-11-29 | 2020-01-02 | murrlong | 4 | Wrong | By the prediction date, due to technological advances, UPS loading positions and teams will be no more 20% of their current size. |
180422 | 2016-11-30 | 2018-07-02 | DaFranker | 1 | Right | The Topps Company will keep the Shadowrun license until at least July 1st, 2018 |
180423 | 2016-11-30 | 2017-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 4 | Right | The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017. |
180424 | 2016-11-30 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 4 | Right | The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018. |
180425 | 2016-11-30 | 2021-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 3 | | The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021. |
180426 | 2016-12-01 | 2016-12-02 | CLARENCETHEANGEL | 1 | Wrong | Zak Goldsmith will win Richmond Park by election on 1dec2016. |
180427 | 2016-12-01 | 2022-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | >1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders |
180430 | 2016-12-01 | 2036-11-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still in same house |
180431 | 2016-12-01 | 2036-11-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying 5000$/mo in property tax |
180432 | 2016-12-01 | 2036-11-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying < 300$/mo property tax |
180433 | 2016-12-01 | 2020-11-28 | themusicgod1 | 4 | | Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems |
180434 | 2016-12-01 | 2026-11-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | More families in north america are single income, two partners, raising children than dual income with/without children/other arrangements |
180435 | 2016-12-01 | 2021-12-01 | penten | 14 | | Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. |
180436 | 2016-12-01 | 2016-12-15 | penten | 1 | Right | LP feeling generally happier about S than this week |
180475 | 2016-12-05 | 2017-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Right | My configuration management system will be deployed on at least one server before 2017 |
180489 | 2016-12-08 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger |
180493 | 2016-12-09 | 2016-12-26 | penten | 2 | Wrong | "White Christmas" (any snowfall on Christmas day qualifies) |
180494 | 2016-12-09 | 2026-12-09 | penten | 2 | | We will have a second child within 10 years |
180495 | 2016-12-09 | 2017-01-10 | bobpage | 1 | Right | Replacement Dell 24" G-SYNC monitor will have the same vertical-striping issue |
180496 | 2016-12-09 | 2017-01-10 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Replacement 24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will have >= 0.1 more accurate gamma |
180497 | 2016-12-09 | 2026-12-10 | hedges | 3 | | Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis |
180507 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-18 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - Sy meets with Fray during 15.13 or 15.14 |
180508 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-18 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Bandit says at least one sentence to Ardaic within Chapter 45, Pages 19, 20, or 21. |
180509 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-17 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Business, UK - A deal preventing further strike action is announced by South West Trains by the end of Friday 16th December 2016. |
180510 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-17 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, US - Rex Tillerson officially announced by Trump or representative as nominee for Secretary of State before 2016-12-17 |
180511 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Right | Dota 2 7.00: Iron Talon cost and damage to creeps on activation unchanged |
180512 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Outworld Devourer base armour or base damage reduced |
180513 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike cooldown increased |
180514 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike recipe cost increased |
180515 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Moon Glaive no longer works on illusions |
180516 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Laguna Blade damage increased |
180517 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Disruption illusions damage taken increased |
180518 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Disruption cooldown increased |
180519 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Right | Dota 2 7.00: Underlord added to captains mode |
180520 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Right | Dota 2 7.00: Arc Warden added to captains mode |
180521 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Aether Lens recipe cost reduced |
180522 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Guardian Greaves recipe cost reduced |
180523 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: 2 new heroes added |
180524 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Right | Dota 2 7.00: Damage dealt to buildings by illusions reduced |
180525 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Wisdom stat added |
180526 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Necronomicon recipe cost reduced |
180527 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Conceding possible in ranked matchmaking |
180528 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Right | Dota 2 7.00: In-game HUD changed significantly |
180529 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Dragon Lance agility and strength boost reduced |
180530 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Heaven's Halberd cooldown reduced |
180531 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Sentry Wards no longer purchased in pairs |
180532 | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-11 | RogerDodger | 1 | Wrong | Dota 2 7.00: Divine Rapier damage increased |
180543 | 2016-12-13 | 2031-12-13 | Ben Doherty | 8 | | Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) |
180546 | 2016-12-14 | 2017-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 6 | Right | http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be the most viewed blog post on the Effective Altruism Forum for December 2016 according to Google Analytics. |
180549 | 2016-12-15 | 2021-12-25 | kjaques | 6 | | 1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use |
180553 | 2016-12-16 | 2017-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for December 2016 than for December 2015. http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?tag=Countries&months[0]=201612&months[1]=201512&language=en&drilldown=desktop |
180562 | 2016-12-17 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake |
180574 | 2016-12-19 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') |
180575 | 2016-12-19 | 2017-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') |
180584 | 2016-12-21 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | President Jerry Brown |
180585 | 2016-12-21 | 2017-02-21 | penten | 1 | Right | S slept for an uninterrupted stretch of more than 4 hours between 9pm and 7am on 4 out of the 5 days previous to the prediction due date. |
180586 | 2016-12-21 | 2017-05-01 | penten | 2 | Right | I cycled to work at least twice in the last month. |
180588 | 2016-12-21 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 2 | Wrong | I will have given up coffee by 1st Jan 2018 |
180590 | 2016-12-21 | 2016-12-28 | penten | 1 | Wrong | I will receive beer as a present this Christmas |
180591 | 2016-12-21 | 2016-12-28 | penten | 1 | Right | I will receive a coffee-related gift this Christmas |
180593 | 2016-12-21 | 2017-12-21 | penten | 2 | Right | I will have a new phone in 12 months (current MI3W) |
180594 | 2016-12-21 | 2018-12-21 | penten | 3 | Right | I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) |
180604 | 2016-12-22 | 2017-03-20 | taryneast | 4 | Right | My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 39+2 weeks gestation |
180605 | 2016-12-22 | 2017-03-07 | taryneast | 5 | Wrong | My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 37+2 weeks of gestation |
180606 | 2016-12-22 | 2017-12-30 | penten | 3 | Right | I am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017) |
180607 | 2016-12-22 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 3 | Right | Read 45 or more books in 2017 |
180608 | 2016-12-22 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 2 | Wrong | I will read 3+ Chinese books in 2017 |
180609 | 2016-12-22 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 2 | Right | I will read 2+ French books in 2017 |
180610 | 2016-12-22 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | | US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. |
180611 | 2016-12-22 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | I read >13 books in 2017 |
180612 | 2016-12-22 | 2017-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Trump approves dapl >90 days from inauguration but <180 days from inauguration |
180613 | 2016-12-22 | 2025-07-22 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | facebook block capability will digitally alter pictures to erase evidence that the person who's blocking you was ever present |
180614 | 2016-12-22 | 2016-12-25 | asyks | 2 | | Rob will win his family's Festivus FEAT OF STRENGTH this year |
180615 | 2016-12-23 | 2026-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | | Duterte OD's on some drug |
180620 | 2016-12-27 | 2017-01-31 | sjy | 3 | Right | The UK Supreme Court will dismiss the Brexit appeal |
180621 | 2016-12-27 | 2017-01-20 | asyks | 22 | Right | Donal Trump will be inaugurated President |
180631 | 2016-12-31 | 2017-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Withdrawn | 2017 predictions: conditional on using work time tracking through Dec 31, my weekly average will be >41 hours. |
180633 | 2016-12-31 | 2017-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Wrong | 2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will still be working at my current company. |
180634 | 2016-12-31 | 2017-12-31 | EloiseRosen | 1 | Right | 2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 18.6 - 19.5 inclusive. |
180644 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 7 | Wrong | A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. |
180645 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Resolution 3 : Stay out of ER as patient in 2017 |
180646 | 2017-01-01 | 2021-01-10 | bendini | 1 | | Illidanstr will spend at least one new years eve before the year 2021 not alone, according to his personal definition of "not alone" |
180647 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | I will drop out of my PhD in 2017 |
180648 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Right | I will read >15 books in 2017 |
180649 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Right | I will reach my weight goal of 64.1kg (10 day average) in 2017 |
180650 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | I will have a major haircut in 2017 |
180651 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | I will be hospitalised in 2017 (not counting A&E) |
180652 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Right | I will try an alcoholic drink in 2017 |
180653 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | I will consider myself to be "a person who drinks alcohol" at any point in 2017 |
180654 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | I will be asking people to use gender-neutral pronouns for me by the end of 2017 |
180655 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will be able to (reasonably consistently) beat AoE2HD AI 1v1 on hardest difficulty setting at any point in 2017 |
180656 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will consider myself "in a relationship" at any point in 2017 |
180657 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | I will go on dates with >5 people in 2017 |
180658 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | I will complete my current music project in 2017 |
180659 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Right | I will read every new xkcd in 2017 |
180660 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Right | I will read every new SSC in 2017 |
180661 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2017 |
180662 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Resolution 1 : I will spend equal time with people who live within PRISM/walled gardens like facebook as time outside those walls |
180663 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio |
180664 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | mortehu | 17 | Right | Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 |
180665 | 2017-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | mortehu | 4 | Wrong | Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 |
180669 | 2017-01-02 | 2018-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | Wrong | I will read 20+ books in 2017 |
180670 | 2017-01-02 | 2018-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | Wrong | I will read 30+ books in 2017 |
180671 | 2017-01-02 | 2018-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | Wrong | I will read 40+ books in 2017 |
180672 | 2017-01-02 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | Right | Vipul Naik will publish a post on the Effective Altruism Forum during 2017 http://effective-altruism.com/user/vipulnaik/submitted/ |
180673 | 2017-01-02 | 2017-02-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. |
180674 | 2017-01-02 | 2017-02-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. |
180678 | 2017-01-03 | 2037-01-03 | penten | 4 | | Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country) |
180679 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-01-03 | Jach | 1 | Right | I will finish 6 or more books this year |
180680 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-03-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Right | 2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 4% |
180681 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-03-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Wrong | 2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 2% |
180682 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Right | Repeal of Obamacare, including at least the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules signed in to law before end of 2017 |
180683 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Wrong | Given an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017 |
180684 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | | There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) |
180685 | 2017-01-03 | 2021-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | | There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) |
180686 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-11-20 | davidmanheim | 8 | Wrong | Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections |
180687 | 2017-01-03 | 2020-11-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | | There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) |
180688 | 2017-01-03 | 2021-01-20 | davidmanheim | 5 | | The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) |
180689 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Wrong | I will read at least 30 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) |
180690 | 2017-01-03 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Right | I will read at least 20 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) |
180691 | 2017-01-03 | 2017-05-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Wrong | I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 |
180692 | 2017-01-03 | 2021-01-01 | Issa Rice | 4 | | By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ |
180693 | 2017-01-03 | 2017-02-03 | playablecharacter | 3 | Wrong | Issa Rice will write down a new prediction each day on PredictionBook for the next month |
180708 | 2017-01-04 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 9 | Right | Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 |
180709 | 2017-01-04 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Wrong | Lightning Networks AND Segwit will be *fully* deployed before the end of 2017 |
180710 | 2017-01-04 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Wrong | There will be a major bug found and exploited in Lightning Networks / Segwit during 2017 (Conditional on deployment before June) |
180711 | 2017-01-04 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | Ethereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017 |
180712 | 2017-01-04 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | Ethereum will be above $20 at the end of 2017 |
180713 | 2017-01-04 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 |
180714 | 2017-01-04 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 |
180727 | 2017-01-05 | 2018-01-01 | adbge | 2 | Right | Oakland's total homicide count is greater than 88 in 2017. |
180728 | 2017-01-05 | 2026-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 |
180729 | 2017-01-05 | 2024-11-08 | Dapple | 4 | | I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election |
180730 | 2017-01-05 | 2020-11-08 | Dapple | 2 | | I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election |
180731 | 2017-01-05 | 2017-06-15 | playablecharacter | 1 | Withdrawn | Playablecharacter will graduate this Spring from college |
180732 | 2017-01-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 2 | Wrong | A certain close friend of playablecharacter will commit suicide this year |
180733 | 2017-01-05 | 2039-01-01 | playablecharacter | 3 | | At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity |
180734 | 2017-01-05 | 2021-01-01 | playablecharacter | 2 | | I will suicide before 2021 |
180735 | 2017-01-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Wrong | I will experience a blackout while/after drinking alcohol during 2017 |
180736 | 2017-01-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Wrong | Myself and a certain close friend will visit Japan during 2017 |
180737 | 2017-01-05 | 2019-02-01 | Issa Rice | 3 | Wrong | Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education will have a Wikipedia page about it within one month of publication, and the page will not be deleted for one year after publication of the page. |
180738 | 2017-01-05 | 2021-01-01 | playablecharacter | 3 | Right | The University of Washington will move up from its current ranking of 15 in ARWU before 2021 |
180739 | 2017-01-05 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 7 | Right | Vipul Naik will pay more ("payments due") for contract work in 2017 than he did in 2016 https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ |
180740 | 2017-01-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Wrong | Issa Rice source code (in its entirety) will be put into new hardware this year |
180741 | 2017-01-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Wrong | Israel annexes new land in 2017 |
180742 | 2017-01-06 | 2018-06-30 | playablecharacter | 3 | Wrong | Akshat Shrivastava will drop out of the University of Washington |
180745 | 2017-01-06 | 2021-01-20 | npcuck | 6 | | Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term |
180748 | 2017-01-06 | 2030-01-16 | pkfalu92 | 6 | | By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. |
180749 | 2017-01-06 | 2017-01-07 | pkfalu92 | 1 | Right | I will complete part 3 of week 5's assignment tonight, by midnight. |
180750 | 2017-01-06 | 2017-01-06 | Rob Bednark | 1 | Wrong | Aaron will choose Angelina's for lunch today. |
180751 | 2017-01-06 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | | Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia |
180752 | 2017-01-06 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 5 | Wrong | "Timeline of digital preservation" on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs |
180753 | 2017-01-07 | 2017-01-21 | Issa Rice | 4 | Wrong | I will be on University of Washington Seattle campus on January 20, 2017 |
180754 | 2017-01-07 | 2017-01-08 | Issa Rice | 2 | Right | Tomorrow I will finish exporting the Quora questions I follow |
180755 | 2017-01-07 | 2017-01-18 | ioannes | 3 | Wrong | I go on an OKC date next week |
180756 | 2017-01-07 | 2017-02-15 | ioannes | 5 | Right | I go on an OKC date by February 15, 2017 |
180763 | 2017-01-08 | 2026-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | | I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025 |
180766 | 2017-01-09 | 2017-02-01 | sjy | 4 | Right | The Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017 |
180767 | 2017-01-09 | 2021-01-10 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | I get banned from GoodReads |
180768 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 |
180769 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | No major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war) |
180770 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017 |
180771 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Wrong | Situation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017 |
180772 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | Syria’s civil war will not end during 2017 |
180773 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 |
180774 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party during 2017 |
180775 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 |
180776 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Wrong | EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017 |
180777 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Right | A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works in 2017 |
180778 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Withdrawn | A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is launched by November. |
180779 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Right | A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is not launched by November. |
180780 | 2017-01-10 | 2017-03-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Wrong | Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair |
180781 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017 |
180782 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 |
180783 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 |
180784 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Right | No agreement reached on “two-speed EU” in 2017 |
180785 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 |
180786 | 2017-01-10 | 2017-05-01 | davidmanheim | 12 | Right | Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running |
180787 | 2017-01-10 | 2017-11-01 | davidmanheim | 11 | Right | Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany |
180788 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | Theresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017 |
180789 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-02-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 |
180790 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Right | Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel (Brent Crude) |
180791 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 1 | Wrong | Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel (Brent Crude) |
180792 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Right | Dow Jones will not fall > 10% in 2017 |
180793 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Right | Shanghai index will not fall > 10% in 2017 |
180794 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 14 | Right | Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 |
180795 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 11 | Right | No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 |
180796 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 2 | Wrong | Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins in 2017 |
180797 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017) |
180798 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-03-01 | davidmanheim | 5 | Wrong | US GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016 |
180799 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-03-01 | davidmanheim | 7 | Wrong | US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning |
180800 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017 |
180801 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 4 | Right | US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 |
180802 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-01 | davidmanheim | 6 | Right | No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 |
180803 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-15 | davidmanheim | 2 | Wrong | US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia in 2017 |
180804 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-15 | davidmanheim | 10 | Right | Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent |
180805 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-15 | davidmanheim | 5 | Right | Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent |
180806 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-15 | davidmanheim | 5 | Wrong | Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 |
180807 | 2017-01-10 | 2018-01-15 | davidmanheim | 3 | Right | Scott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse |
180808 | 2017-01-10 | 2025-01-01 | bobpage | 32 | | Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state |
180809 | 2017-01-10 | 2017-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Donald Trump administration names china Currency Manipulator |
180816 | 2017-01-10 | 2017-02-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | SpaceX makes a successful launch before the end of January 2017 |
180817 | 2017-01-11 | 2017-03-09 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | I will not be able to find a place, and will be forced to move back to saskatoon |
180824 | 2017-01-11 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 8 | Right | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018 |
180829 | 2017-01-11 | 2026-01-01 | bobpage | 14 | | Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 |
180830 | 2017-01-11 | 2017-05-01 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | Before May 2017, we will see authentic video footage of Donald Trump in the same room as one or more women urinating on a bed |
180831 | 2017-01-11 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Non-test SpaceX rocket will explode in 2017, excluding explosions during controlled descent or landing of reusable stages |
180832 | 2017-01-11 | 2018-03-01 | Roxolan | 1 | Right | At least one card from the MtG sets Aether Revolt or Amonkhet will get banned in Standard. |
180833 | 2017-01-11 | 2024-01-11 | penten | 1 | | I am still married to my current partner |
180834 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-12-31 | blobfish | 2 | Right | North Korea will not experience any significant destabilization of its regime by the end of 2017 |
180835 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-12-31 | blobfish | 5 | Right | No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 |
180836 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-01-16 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I go to Bolinas this weekend |
180837 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-01-16 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | 2016 Q4 books post published by end of this weekend |
180838 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-01-14 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | application for renting the place on peter st turned down |
180847 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-06-01 | penten | 2 | Right | >= 246 pages of predictions on the "View Predictions" page (12300ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) |
180848 | 2017-01-12 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 1 | Wrong | >= 270 pages of predictions on the "View Predictions" page (13500ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) |
180849 | 2017-01-12 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 1 | Right | >= 267 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13350ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) |
180850 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-06-01 | penten | 4 | Right | First prediction created June 1st 2017 UTC has an ID (see URL) >= 182180 |
180851 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Obamacare repeal on Jan 11/12, 2017 that occurred defeated before it goes into effect |
180852 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-02-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | CFIB comes out against mill rate increase in regina budget |
180858 | 2017-01-12 | 2017-10-23 | lukas11 | 5 | Right | AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. |
180875 | 2017-01-13 | 2017-01-21 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Best says some variation on "thank you", within pages 10-12 |
180876 | 2017-01-13 | 2017-01-15 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - In 16.7, the leader orders an attack on Sy. |
180877 | 2017-01-13 | 2017-02-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Technology - OnePlus releases a further bug fix update for the OnePlus 3 before the end of January. |
180878 | 2017-01-13 | 2047-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | | Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley |
180879 | 2017-01-13 | 2026-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | weev's attempt at resurrecting Luminiferous Aether Theory is actually a ploy to get someone to send his posse quantities of fissile material |
180883 | 2017-01-14 | 2023-08-16 | Ben Doherty | 4 | | Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. |
180884 | 2017-01-14 | 2020-10-16 | Ben Doherty | 5 | | Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. |
180885 | 2017-01-14 | 2024-10-16 | Ben Doherty | 8 | | Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. |
180886 | 2017-01-14 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | | Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies |
180887 | 2017-01-14 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest |
180896 | 2017-01-15 | 2021-01-01 | playablecharacter | 2 | | Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021 |
180897 | 2017-01-15 | 2017-01-18 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | new landlord accepts tenancy agreement |
180898 | 2017-01-15 | 2017-02-10 | ioannes | 3 | Right | Trump tweets at least one tweet about how great the performances at his inauguration ceremony will be / are / were. |
180899 | 2017-01-15 | 2017-02-10 | ioannes | 5 | Wrong | Trump calls out at least one specific performer for refusing to participate in his inauguration ceremony on twitter. |
180900 | 2017-01-15 | 2018-11-07 | ioannes | 7 | Wrong | Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship |
180918 | 2017-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | bendini | 3 | Withdrawn | Total per person unsubsidised cost on accelerator project will not be below €100 for rent food energy and internet. |
180919 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Legislation introduced in the US to regulate Augmented Reality. |
180920 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Somebody gets themselves killed, augmented reality to blame |
180921 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Somebody causes fire, augmented reality to blame |
180922 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Virtual Reality used by <1% of US+Can population |
180923 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | first bipedal soldiers deployed are russian made |
180924 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | human beings engaged against first bipedal robots in real battle |
180925 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | First bipedal robots used in police active patrol duty |
180926 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Somebody does something "really cool" with augmented reality |
180927 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 2 or more of { US, Russia, China } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } |
180928 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 2 or more of { US, Russia, China, Israel } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } |
180929 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | See some kind of CISA/SOPA-like legislation thrown around and some will pass, be legislation on things that are "not legislatable" or logically impossible |
180930 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Trump Inauguration has lower ratings than or between Obama and Bush Inauguration |
180931 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | alexa/siri/ok google/their competitor have better conversational skills |
180934 | 2017-01-16 | 2017-02-02 | ioannes | 2 | Right | Books 2016 Q4 published by February 1 2017 |
180935 | 2017-01-16 | 2020-12-01 | RandomThinker | 25 | | The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. |
180936 | 2017-01-16 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. |
180937 | 2017-01-16 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 7 | Wrong | 0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world |
180938 | 2017-01-17 | 2018-06-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Wikileaks get shame-labelled as fake news by NSA/Facebook |
180943 | 2017-01-17 | 2018-01-01 | penten | 2 | Right | FTSE100 over 7,000 on January 1st 2018 |
180944 | 2017-01-17 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded |
180945 | 2017-01-17 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | War involving either active troop deployments from/fighting in all of: US, UK, China, At least one Scandinavian country, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia |
180952 | 2017-01-18 | 2050-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 9 | | AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) |
180955 | 2017-01-19 | 2017-03-01 | ioannes | 8 | Wrong | Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) |
180956 | 2017-01-19 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | large, existing firms that make medical devices will fail to make inroads on marketshare % of wearable health devices wrt small disruptors |
180957 | 2017-01-19 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Milo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner |
180958 | 2017-01-19 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Andrew Dice Clay provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinne |
180959 | 2017-01-19 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner |
180960 | 2017-01-19 | 2017-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Jeff Foxworthy provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner |
180961 | 2017-01-19 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement |
180976 | 2017-01-20 | 2017-01-27 | ioannes | 2 | Withdrawn | The other boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday ("difficult situation" = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.) |
180977 | 2017-01-20 | 2017-01-23 | ioannes | 2 | Wrong | Motorcycle crash on trip to San Diego |
180978 | 2017-01-20 | 2017-01-23 | ioannes | 2 | Wrong | Motorcycle crash or breakdown on trip to San Diego |
180979 | 2017-01-20 | 2017-01-22 | ioannes | 1 | Right | Arrive in Santa Barbara before sunset tomorrow |
180981 | 2017-01-20 | 2018-01-16 | ioannes | 4 | Right | No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017 |
180984 | 2017-01-21 | 2017-01-28 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - Berger tries to sacrifice the hostage in 16.10 or 16.11 |
180985 | 2017-01-21 | 2017-01-24 | jbeshir | 3 | Withdrawn | Politics - More than 100,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January |
180986 | 2017-01-21 | 2017-01-24 | jbeshir | 6 | Withdrawn | Politics - More than 10,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January |
180987 | 2017-01-21 | 2017-01-28 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics - President Trump signs an executive order ordering research into, preparatory work for, or work on border fencing or walls before the end of 2017-01-27 |
180988 | 2017-01-21 | 2017-01-28 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics - President Trump signs an executive order reversing at least one of Obama's LGBT protection executive orders by the end of 2017-01-27. |
180989 | 2017-01-22 | 2018-01-15 | two2thehead | 5 | Right | North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile before the end of 2017 |
181000 | 2017-01-23 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 10 | Wrong | President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) |
181001 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-05-18 | atomicspacemann | 7 | Wrong | President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 |
181002 | 2017-01-23 | 2018-01-07 | atomicspacemann | 2 | | The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years. |
181003 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-05-05 | atomicspacemann | 2 | Wrong | President Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all. |
181004 | 2017-01-23 | 2018-01-01 | atomicspacemann | 4 | Wrong | SpaceX will launch a Falcon Heavy before the end of 2017. Any launch leaving the ground satisfies this, even if it fails during ascent, or carries only a test payload. |
181005 | 2017-01-23 | 2018-01-01 | atomicspacemann | 3 | Wrong | SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy launch, defined as placing payload in or above LEO, within 2017. |
181006 | 2017-01-23 | 2018-01-01 | atomicspacemann | 2 | Wrong | SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy booster landing, of at least one booster in 2017. |
181010 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-01-23 | technicalities | 1 | Right | US will not withdraw from TTIP |
181011 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Right | Terrorism death toll by year end 2017 will be < 30,000 |
181012 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 4 | | Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. |
181013 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | | Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be < 500,000 |
181014 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Right | No terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world in 2017 (HDI > 0.8). |
181015 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Wrong | No terrorist attack causes >400 deaths in the less developed world in 2017 (HDI < 0.8). |
181016 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Wrong | No terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths in 2017. |
181017 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 4 | Right | No country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone. |
181018 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Fewer refugees admitted to European countries in 2017 than 2016. |
181019 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-06-30 | technicalities | 2 | Wrong | Front National will gain 30+ seats in the French legislative election. |
181020 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-06-30 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Le Pen will lose the presidential election. |
181021 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-06-30 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Front National will not end up in power. |
181022 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-06-30 | technicalities | 1 | Right | Partij voor de Vrijheid will gain 5+ seats in the Dutch election. |
181023 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-06-30 | technicalities | 1 | Right | PVV will not end up in power. |
181024 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-06-30 | technicalities | 1 | Right | Alternative für Deutschland will gain 40+ seats in the German election. |
181025 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-06-30 | technicalities | 1 | Right | AfD will not end up in power. |
181026 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Wrong | No second Scottish independence referendum announced in 2017. |
181027 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Right | There will be no public agreement on UK membership of the common market, post-Brexit. |
181028 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-03-31 | technicalities | 5 | Right | The UK triggers Article 50. |
181029 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Wrong | No snap UK general election held this year. |
181030 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Withdrawn | Conditional on no GE, no new leadership challenge to Corbyn. |
181031 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Right | May's approval rating above 30% at year end. |
181032 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | China will not enter recession this year. |
181033 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Putin’s domestic approval will remain above 50% in whatever reputable polls exist there. |
181034 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Pro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk. |
181035 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Ethiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%. |
181036 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Wrong | Joseph Kabila will not be in power. |
181039 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Re: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured. |
181040 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | The Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment) |
181041 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Wrong | Raqqa will remain under the control of ISIL. |
181042 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Syrian ceasefire (Russian brokered, Dec 16) will not last. |
181043 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Assad will remain President of Syria. |
181044 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Total media mentions of ISIL continues to decline. |
181045 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 7 | Right | Trump will not be impeached. |
181046 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 4 | Right | No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. |
181047 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | US will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers |
181049 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Right | Trump will end the year above 35% approval. |
181050 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Trump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year. |
181052 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-01-31 | technicalities | 3 | Right | TPP will not be ratified this year. |
181053 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 4 | Right | Deportations from the US will not increase by more than a quarter. |
181054 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 5 | Right | The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before July 1, 2017. |
181055 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | | Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). |
181056 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 4 | Right | F-35 program will not be curtailed. |
181057 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 4 | Right | 2016 will remain the hottest year on record. |
181058 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 10 | Right | Bitcoin will end the year above $400. |
181059 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. |
181061 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Wrong | There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. |
181062 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Withdrawn | No attempt of a human head transplant. |
181063 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Right | No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. |
181064 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | No verified quantum supremacy this year. |
181065 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Withdrawn | The SAV001 HIV vaccine will show significant results, Cohen's d > 0.3. |
181066 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Right | At least one PlayStation-level data breach. |
181067 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 3 | Wrong | "Data science" hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. |
181068 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Right | A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. |
181069 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 2 | Withdrawn | Conditional on it occurring, a CRISPR clinical trial will have disappointing results. (Cohen's d < 0.3) |
181070 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Wrong | I will get 70% or more of these predictions right. (Correct sign) |
181071 | 2017-01-23 | 2017-12-31 | technicalities | 1 | Wrong | In 2017, I will get a Brier score of > 0.2. |
181072 | 2017-01-24 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | REINS act signed into law |
181083 | 2017-01-25 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 6 | Wrong | Twitter shut down. |
181102 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | Right | "Link posts" will still exist as a feature for new posts on LessWrong on 2018-01-01 |
181103 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 1 | | Total LessWrong Google Analytics Pageviews for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 |
181104 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | | Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 |
181105 | 2017-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | Wrong | Arbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01 |
181106 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | Wrong | A LessWrong post published during 2017 will become a top-10 post by pageviews on LW by 2018-01-01 |
181107 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | Right | LessWrong will accept posts written in Markdown (any flavor) on its web interface by 2018-01-01 |
181108 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | Right | LessWrong will use Telescope Nova rather than its old reddit codebase by 2018-01-01 |
181109 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 3 | Wrong | 2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month |
181110 | 2017-01-26 | 2018-01-01 | Issa Rice | 2 | Wrong | 2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and existing LessWrong accounts will stop working (forcing users to sign up for fresh accounts) |
181126 | 2017-01-28 | 2017-06-01 | Temeraire | 1 | | QRVO loses share on the iPhone |
181127 | 2017-01-28 | 2019-01-01 | Temeraire | 3 | Wrong | Trump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold) |
181128 | 2017-01-28 | 2020-01-01 | Temeraire | 3 | | ACA repealed before US midterm elections and 2019 number of people without healthcare insurance > 15m higher than 2016 |
181129 | 2017-01-28 | 2019-01-01 | Temeraire | 2 | Wrong | Dodd-Frank fully or almost fully repealed by US midterm elections. |
181130 | 2017-01-28 | 2019-03-01 | Temeraire | 3 | Wrong | Deportations in 2018 up > 50% vs 2016 |
181131 | 2017-01-28 | 2019-01-01 | Temeraire | 2 | | Donald Trump maintains effective control (including through close family) of his businesses through US midterms. |
181132 | 2017-01-28 | 2019-01-01 | Temeraire | 3 | | Donald Trump successfully appoints >1 Supreme Court Justice who support increasing abortion restrictions, repealing same-sex marriage, and enforcing state-led voter suppression [sic] before US midterms |
181133 | 2017-01-28 | 2019-01-01 | Temeraire | 2 | | US military use of torture, extrajudicial imprisonment and killing, and mass surveillance all increased by US midterms. |
181134 | 2017-01-28 | 2019-01-01 | Temeraire | 3 | Wrong | Nationwide school voucher system instigated, >70% of public schools effectively privatized, by US midterms. |
181135 | 2017-01-28 | 2021-01-01 | Temeraire | 3 | | Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem). |
181146 | 2017-01-29 | 2017-02-06 | jbeshir | 7 | Wrong | Politics - President Trump rescinds the Executive Order suspending entry to the United States of Iranian nationals by end of 2017-02-05. |
181147 | 2017-01-29 | 2017-02-06 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders Green Card holders with a nationality currently barred from entry to be permitted to enter the United States by end of 2017-02-05. |
181148 | 2017-01-29 | 2017-02-06 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders dual nationals with citizenship both of a nationality barred from entering and of a non-barred nationality to be permitted to enter by end of 2017-02-05. |
181149 | 2017-01-29 | 2017-03-01 | jbeshir | 8 | Wrong | Politics - President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017. |
181150 | 2017-01-29 | 2024-02-01 | equivrel | 10 | | Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. |
181151 | 2017-01-30 | 2020-11-08 | regex | 63 | | Trump will win a second term |
181152 | 2017-01-30 | 2025-01-30 | regex | 18 | Wrong | Trump will not be impeached |
181153 | 2017-01-30 | 2025-01-30 | HonoreDB | 2 | | A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists. |
181154 | 2017-01-30 | 2018-01-30 | ioannes | 1 | Right | A year from now, I will be unable to remember the plot of "The Nix" |
181155 | 2017-01-31 | 2017-04-17 | playablecharacter | 1 | Wrong | User "npcuck" will go to Sakura-Con |
181178 | 2017-02-01 | 2017-12-01 | JohnWittle | 2 | Wrong | Trump will nominate Steve Bannon to the Supreme Court. |
181184 | 2017-02-01 | 2017-03-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. |
181185 | 2017-02-01 | 2017-02-01 | rmeador | 2 | Wrong | The Dow goes above 20k again on Feb 1 |
181193 | 2017-02-02 | 2021-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | | "the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something" |
181205 | 2017-02-03 | 2017-02-28 | penten | 3 | Right | Emma Stone wins best actress at 2017 Oscars |
181206 | 2017-02-03 | 2017-07-01 | kuudes | 1 | Wrong | More than 40% of SSC17 answerees self-identify in the top 30% right end of the scale |
181209 | 2017-02-04 | 2021-02-04 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | PAP becomes privatized and murders former shenzenites |
181214 | 2017-02-05 | 2020-11-07 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Trump Approval >50% by nov 1, 2020 |
181215 | 2017-02-05 | 2017-03-01 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | Hacksaw Ridge wins 2017 Oscar for best picture |
181216 | 2017-02-05 | 2017-03-01 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | Arrival wins 2017 Oscar for best picture |
181254 | 2017-02-08 | 2022-03-05 | atomicspaceman | 2 | | Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then. |
181255 | 2017-02-08 | 2017-03-02 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I go on two or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 |
181256 | 2017-02-08 | 2017-03-02 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | I go on three or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 |
181257 | 2017-02-08 | 2017-03-02 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | I go on four or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 |
181285 | 2017-02-13 | 2020-01-20 | regex | 2 | Wrong | There will be at least five times more human trafficking arrests in the United States during the four years after Trump became president than the four years prior. |
181286 | 2017-02-13 | 2017-07-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored "Extreme Drought" by July 1 2017 |
181287 | 2017-02-13 | 2017-12-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored "Extreme Drought" by December 1 2017 |
181288 | 2017-02-13 | 2018-02-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored "Extreme Drought" by February 1 2018 |
181289 | 2017-02-13 | 2018-01-01 | ioannes | 5 | Wrong | Oroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017. |
181290 | 2017-02-13 | 2017-02-22 | bobpage | 3 | Right | My brain inflammation will subside before 2017-02-22 |
181299 | 2017-02-14 | 2018-01-01 | ioannes | 8 | Right | Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. |
181300 | 2017-02-15 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017) |
181316 | 2017-02-16 | 2017-03-16 | bobpage | 4 | Right | I will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16 |
181317 | 2017-02-17 | 2021-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | 0% corporate tax in US |
181318 | 2017-02-17 | 2021-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US |
181332 | 2017-02-18 | 2017-03-04 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie goes through a portal within pages 237 to 240 inclusive. |
181333 | 2017-02-18 | 2017-02-25 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - The Lambs leave without a fight during 17.6 or 17.7. |
181334 | 2017-02-18 | 2017-04-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | UK - No deal between RMT and Southern Rail ending the dispute over the role of guards on trains reached by end of March 2017. |
181335 | 2017-02-18 | 2017-02-20 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | SpaceX makes a successful launch on 2017-02-19. |
181343 | 2017-02-20 | 2018-02-07 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | Facebook will report more than 1.4 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx |
181344 | 2017-02-20 | 2019-02-07 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | Facebook will report more than 1.5 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx |
181345 | 2017-02-20 | 2019-02-07 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Wrong | Facebook will report more than 1.6 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx |
181346 | 2017-02-20 | 2018-02-07 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | Weekday ridership at the Fremont BART will decline once the Warm Springs / South Fremont BART becomes operational, as judged by Vipul Naik based on data at http://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership |
181347 | 2017-02-20 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 6 | Right | Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. |
181348 | 2017-02-20 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | Quantcast will continue to show visits and pageviews data for Stack Overflow till the end of 2017. |
181349 | 2017-02-20 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | Wikipedia Views (wikipediaviews.org) will survive in a form very similar to its present form as of January 1, 2018. |
181378 | 2017-02-21 | 2017-02-27 | ioannes | 7 | Wrong | Kubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature |
181379 | 2017-02-21 | 2017-02-27 | ioannes | 3 | Wrong | Moana wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature |
181380 | 2017-02-21 | 2017-02-27 | ioannes | 4 | Right | Zootopia wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature |
181448 | 2017-02-27 | 2017-11-16 | ioannes | 22 | Right | Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 |
181456 | 2017-02-28 | 2019-01-01 | trishume | 8 | Wrong | SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. |
181460 | 2017-02-28 | 2017-04-03 | ioannes | 2 | Right | Parents' loan payment > $999 |
181461 | 2017-02-28 | 2017-04-03 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | Parents' loan payment > $1500 |
181468 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016. |
181469 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 4 | Right | The EA Funds team will decide to continue with the EA Funds after the initial three-month period. |
181470 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | GiveWell will publish at least one of its annual review blog posts on or before April 1, 2017. |
181471 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 6 | Wrong | GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before May 1, 2017. |
181472 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016. |
181473 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016. |
181499 | 2017-03-04 | 2017-03-28 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Power-sharing administration established in Northern Ireland before the end of the three week deadline. |
181500 | 2017-03-04 | 2017-03-11 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - Sy arranges an at least temporary truce within 17.11 or 17.12 |
181501 | 2017-03-04 | 2017-03-25 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomic, Erfworld - Marie captures Jillian within pages 241 to 246 inclusive. |
181502 | 2017-03-04 | 2017-03-25 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomic, Guilded Age - Gravedust loses his challenge. |
181505 | 2017-03-05 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | | By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of ATG squats at [143kg or 1.5x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. |
181506 | 2017-03-05 | 2017-07-01 | playablecharacter | 5 | Wrong | I will kill myself before graduation |
181507 | 2017-03-05 | 2021-01-01 | playablecharacter | 2 | | Certain friend will get themselves killed before graduation (given that they graduate). Not necessarily suicide. |
181508 | 2017-03-05 | 2017-04-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Right | petes will be satisfied |
181509 | 2017-03-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Right | I envision some vision |
181510 | 2017-03-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Right | User "QUEER HOMOSEXUAL LESBIAN" visits Bay Area this year |
181511 | 2017-03-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 3 | Right | User "******" visits Bay Area this year. |
181512 | 2017-03-05 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Right | I visit Bay Area this year |
181525 | 2017-03-05 | 2017-03-05 | elephantower | 1 | Right | 2e |
181526 | 2017-03-05 | 2017-03-05 | elephantower | 1 | Right | 3a |
181527 | 2017-03-05 | 2017-03-05 | elephantower | 1 | Right | 3b |
181528 | 2017-03-05 | 2017-03-05 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | 3c |
181529 | 2017-03-05 | 2017-03-05 | elephantower | 1 | Right | 3d |
181541 | 2017-03-06 | 2017-06-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | Right | WCCP gets *absolutely* fucked (damaged so much that it must be abandoned) |
181554 | 2017-03-07 | 2017-03-20 | Jais Cheema | 2 | Right | By the end of the sprint we will have simplified the setup of Bellroy project by removing at-least 2-3 manual tasks such as sample files, database creation, initial webpack. |
181569 | 2017-03-08 | 2017-04-15 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | Peter Singer actually wasn't no-platformed in March 2017 |
181575 | 2017-03-09 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 5 | Right | There will be a standalone Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Facebook as of March 31, 2017. |
181576 | 2017-03-09 | 2017-04-02 | Vipul Naik | 5 | Wrong | Vipul Naik will be banned from editing Wikipedia as of March 31, 2017. |
181577 | 2017-03-09 | 2017-03-16 | Vipul Naik | 8 | Wrong | The COIN thread on Vipul Naik's paid editing enterprise will continue to receive at least three comments a day as of March 15, 2017. |
181592 | 2017-03-10 | 2017-10-31 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October |
181593 | 2017-03-10 | 2017-10-31 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | I will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October |
181594 | 2017-03-10 | 2017-04-15 | ioannes | 4 | Right | Second date with L |
181595 | 2017-03-10 | 2018-01-01 | Dapple | 1 | Wrong | Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will face prosecution for assault charges in 2017 |
181596 | 2017-03-10 | 2018-01-01 | Dapple | 1 | Wrong | Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will be convicted on assault charges in 2017 |
181601 | 2017-03-11 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Wrong | I will post more on Facebook in 2017 than I did in 2016 (as judged by myself). |
181602 | 2017-03-11 | 2100-01-01 | playablecharacter | 6 | | Issa will get another girlfriend in this century |
181603 | 2017-03-11 | 2101-01-01 | Vipul Naik | 4 | | Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century. |
181604 | 2017-03-11 | 3001-01-01 | playablecharacter | 10 | | I will have a gf at some point |
181605 | 2017-03-11 | 3001-01-01 | playablecharacter | 7 | | Vipul will get married before he dies |
181610 | 2017-03-12 | 2017-03-27 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Iraq - Mass grave at Badoush prison confirmed by sources outside Hashd al-Shaabi and contains the remains of at least 200 people by the end of 2017-03-26. |
181611 | 2017-03-12 | 2017-04-13 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Community Project - Rationalist calendar project will have identified at least one of an event or relevant reading for every day of the year before the end of 2017-04-12. |
181612 | 2017-03-12 | 2017-05-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Community Project - Challenger Day is run in the UK before the end of April 2017, being run defined as being announced and having at least five people attend. |
181613 | 2017-03-12 | 2017-03-26 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Both potential warchief trolls survive their fight. |
181614 | 2017-03-12 | 2017-03-19 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Fiction, Webseries, Twig - Helen survives through to the end of 17.14. |
181620 | 2017-03-13 | 2017-12-31 | Alti Camelus | 5 | Wrong | This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic |
181621 | 2017-03-13 | 2017-04-01 | ioannes | 1 | Withdrawn | Trump solo press conference in March 2017 |
181622 | 2017-03-13 | 2017-06-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I finish Infinite Jest by June 2017 |
181634 | 2017-03-15 | 2017-04-03 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Villanova doesn't win the NCAA tournament |
181635 | 2017-03-15 | 2017-04-03 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | Kentucky wins the NCAA tournament |
181643 | 2017-03-17 | 2017-04-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - Records, forensic evidence, or sourced testimony from officials who were within the intelligence community during the previous US administration is released before the end of March 2017 supporting Trump's claim of being wiretapped. |
181644 | 2017-03-17 | 2037-03-17 | gwern | 25 | | Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. |
181645 | 2017-03-17 | 2017-03-18 | ioannes | 1 | Right | Date tonight |
181646 | 2017-03-17 | 2017-03-24 | ioannes | 2 | Right | Two+ dates in the next week |
181652 | 2017-03-18 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie uses some variation on Hippimancy to neutralise Jillian. |
181653 | 2017-03-18 | 2018-07-02 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie uses some variation on Eyemancy to neutralise Jillian. |
181654 | 2017-03-18 | 2017-08-02 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie turns barbarian as part of a strategy to neutralise Jillian. |
181655 | 2017-03-18 | 2017-03-19 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Bad page state issue is caused by VirtualBox |
181656 | 2017-03-18 | 2017-03-19 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Bad page state issue is caused by VMware Workstation |
181657 | 2017-03-18 | 2017-03-19 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Bad page state issue is caused by BFQ patch |
181658 | 2017-03-18 | 2017-03-19 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Bad page state issue is caused by ZFS |
181659 | 2017-03-18 | 2017-03-19 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | Bad page state issue is caused by recent Ubuntu LTS Linux 4.4 kernel patches |
181660 | 2017-03-18 | 2017-03-19 | bobpage | 1 | Right | Bad page state issue is caused by something else |
181667 | 2017-03-20 | 2017-11-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Right | Ubuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang |
181668 | 2017-03-20 | 2017-09-20 | mala | 1 | | I will launch a landing page for onashirt in the next 6 months |
181671 | 2017-03-20 | 2017-03-23 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped any candidate of the 2016 US Presidential Election |
181672 | 2017-03-20 | 2017-03-24 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | 2017 Mar 20 Both of my predictions will be marked as correct |
181673 | 2017-03-20 | 2017-03-25 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | North Korea conducts nuclear test |
181674 | 2017-03-20 | 2017-03-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | My application for the Mt Whitney Lottery will be accepted. |
181675 | 2017-03-20 | 2018-01-01 | sdr | 13 | Wrong | Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 |
181676 | 2017-03-20 | 2019-01-01 | sdr | 23 | Wrong | Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 |
181677 | 2017-03-21 | 2017-04-04 | Jais Cheema | 1 | Right | We will get out the first Airflow story to production this sprint. |
181681 | 2017-03-21 | 2017-04-15 | ioannes | 2 | Right | Second date with L |
181682 | 2017-03-21 | 2017-04-15 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | Second date with J |
181683 | 2017-03-21 | 2017-04-15 | ioannes | 3 | Wrong | Second date with R |
181690 | 2017-03-22 | 2017-05-15 | ioannes | 3 | Right | ISIS claims responsibility for the 2017-03-22 UK parliament attack. |
181693 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-04-01 | playablecharacter | 2 | Wrong | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Ethanbas will be indefinitely blocked from editing Wikipedia by the end of March |
181698 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-05-01 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | By 2017-05-01 Mon 00:00: At some point by then, I will be >= 83.3...% confident that I had keto flu at some point between now and then. (Informally: I go out of ketosis by the end of April.) |
181699 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-04-10 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Wrong | By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my clothes; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent 'homes'. |
181700 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-04-10 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my books; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent homes. |
181701 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-04-10 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Wrong | By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my papers; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-permanent) homes. |
181702 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-04-03 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I do not set any music playing for just myself, other than as linked to or mentioned by other people; or for Deliberately Practising recitation or vocals; or incidental (e.g. YouTube video intros of videos I opened). |
181703 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-04-03 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I consume < 50 kcal in my bedroom |
181704 | 2017-03-23 | 2017-03-28 | two2thehead | 5 | Right | 2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today |
181709 | 2017-03-24 | 2017-12-27 | guisamora | 1 | Wrong | Lula ou Dilma será preso / presa por conta da Lava-Jato |
181725 | 2017-03-26 | 2017-04-09 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Wanda returns to Gobwin Knob during pages 247 to 250. |
181728 | 2017-03-26 | 2017-03-30 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Tech - The Samsung S8, as released, has no home button. |
181743 | 2017-03-27 | 2018-01-05 | ioannes | 8 | Wrong | The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 |
181771 | 2017-03-29 | 2018-01-16 | timujin | 1 | Wrong | A Blizzard Classic hero to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. |
181772 | 2017-03-29 | 2018-01-16 | timujin | 1 | Right | Kel'Thuzad to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. |
181773 | 2017-03-29 | 2022-03-29 | timujin | 1 | | A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time. |
181780 | 2017-03-29 | 2017-10-01 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | I go to Burning Man 2017 |
181783 | 2017-03-30 | 2017-03-31 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | SpaceX - Launch using a reused first stage successfully lands the first stage again without destroying it. |
181786 | 2017-03-30 | 2017-03-31 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Withdrawn | My tendon won't hurt when I go for a run this afternoon |
181787 | 2017-03-30 | 2017-06-30 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Wrong | My tendon will be better in 3 months |
181800 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Politics, US - Deal struck involving at least one Democrat to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. |
181813 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181814 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181815 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181816 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Japanese television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181817 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the mammals tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181818 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the birds tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181819 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181820 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of mobile web pageviews for the colors tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181821 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of mobile web pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181822 | 2017-04-01 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of mobile web pageviews for the countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181823 | 2017-04-01 | 2101-01-01 | playablecharacter | 2 | | Certain friend will kill themselves this century |
181824 | 2017-04-02 | 2017-05-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. |
181828 | 2017-04-03 | 2017-05-03 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | Parents' loan payment > $1350 |
181839 | 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-15 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of S80. |
181840 | 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-15 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 2 | Right | By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of GKMC. |
181841 | 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-15 | KnaveOfAllTrades | 1 | Right | By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its integer Metacritic score is >= than that for TPAB. |
181842 | 2017-04-04 | 2017-04-18 | SeriousPod | 6 | Right | The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. |
181848 | 2017-04-05 | 2099-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | CPT symmetry violated |
181849 | 2017-04-05 | 2017-04-06 | splorridge | 1 | Right | Residents of Cloister House will be able to return today |
181857 | 2017-04-06 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Hyperion sells 300 nuclear reactors |
181866 | 2017-04-07 | 2017-04-07 | clutetc | 3 | | Tom Brady only plays for 2 more years |
181877 | 2017-04-08 | 2030-01-01 | playablecharacter | 3 | | Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW |
181878 | 2017-04-08 | 2021-01-01 | playablecharacter | 1 | | Given that Avi gets into UW, he is admitted into the CSE major by 2021 |
181879 | 2017-04-08 | 2018-01-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Syria - Credible forensic evidence that a chemical weapons storage or manufacturing location existed in Khan Sheikhoun emerges before the end of 2017. |
181880 | 2017-04-08 | 2018-01-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Syria - A chemical weapon attack involving a nerve agent occurs between 8th April 2017 and the end of 2017, committed by any party. |
181881 | 2017-04-08 | 2017-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Syria - Further Western strikes occur on Syrian Arab Army targets before the end of May 2017. |
181882 | 2017-04-08 | 2017-05-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - Steve Bannon leaves the White House by the end of April 2017 |
181883 | 2017-04-08 | 2017-05-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Politics, US - Steve Bannon is demoted in some fashion or leaves the White House before the end of April 2017 |
181884 | 2017-04-09 | 2017-05-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, Europe - Greek delayed bailout payment negotiations conclude with agreement to release the payment, by end of April 2017. |
181885 | 2017-04-09 | 2017-05-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | UK - Culprit of acid attack in Islington identified and identified to have had religious motivations by end of April 2017. |
181886 | 2017-04-09 | 2017-04-15 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | The 8chan board /ratanon/ is back up with or without earlier posts by the end of the 14th of April 2017. |
181887 | 2017-04-09 | 2017-04-30 | two2thehead | 9 | Wrong | North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 21 days [2017-04-09] |
181888 | 2017-04-09 | 2017-04-23 | two2thehead | 9 | Wrong | North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 14 days [2017-04-09] |
181889 | 2017-04-09 | 2017-04-15 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Donald Trump has a higher approval rating as of latest polls by Friday the 14th of April than he had on the 5th of April. |
181894 | 2017-04-09 | 2017-04-10 | Somni | 1 | Right | Haskell dick (author of a textbook) is male. |
181898 | 2017-04-10 | 2017-12-15 | nortil | 14 | Right | Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. |
181899 | 2017-04-10 | 2017-04-10 | Somni | 2 | Wrong | I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games by [17.4.10.12.00.PST]. |
181907 | 2017-04-10 | 2017-04-11 | Somni | 1 | Right | Go to CVS today. |
181908 | 2017-04-10 | 2017-04-11 | Somni | 1 | Right | Go to the bank today. |
181909 | 2017-04-10 | 2018-01-01 | thekohser | 1 | Wrong | TPO Mobile (The People's Operator) shutters operations before the end of 2017 |
181910 | 2017-04-10 | 2017-04-12 | Joy | 2 | Right | I will be able to complete `Move EdiNordstrom orders behind a cutover to new Trading` story within estimate |
181916 | 2017-04-11 | 2017-04-12 | Somni | 1 | Wrong | I will visit Jess by [17.4.11.18.00.PST] today. |
181917 | 2017-04-11 | 2017-04-12 | Somni | 1 | Right | I will visit Jess today. (Before [17.4.11.23.59.PST].) |
181918 | 2017-04-12 | 2017-05-01 | nortil | 2 | Wrong | Gold will hit US$1300 by May 1st 2017 |
181919 | 2017-04-12 | 2017-04-12 | Somni | 1 | Wrong | 3 total announcements by announcement guy in community episode 2. |
181920 | 2017-04-12 | 2017-04-13 | Somni | 1 | Right | I will kiss Jess within one minute |
181921 | 2017-04-12 | 2017-04-12 | Somni | 1 | Right | I will sleep with (meaning we will at least lay next to each other on her bed while we touch each other) Jess within the next two hours. |
181926 | 2017-04-12 | 2017-04-13 | Somni | 2 | Wrong | I will retrieve my passport today. |
181930 | 2017-04-12 | 3017-04-12 | Somni | 2 | Right | I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games within 1,000 years. |
181931 | 2017-04-12 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Right | Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do |
181932 | 2017-04-12 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 3 | Right | Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do |
181933 | 2017-04-12 | 2020-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Right | Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2019, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do |
181934 | 2017-04-12 | 2017-05-04 | bobpage | 3 | Right | I will cancel Netflix before my trial ends |
181935 | 2017-04-12 | 2074-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Brad Trost becomes prime minister of canada |
181940 | 2017-04-13 | 2017-04-14 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | Ubuntu 16.10->17.04 upgrade on computer "Hedy" will result in a booting machine, to at least emacs, a web browser with access to the www, and a bitcoin client. |
181941 | 2017-04-13 | 2017-05-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | I drop out of the ultraworking pentathlon |
181942 | 2017-04-13 | 2017-04-24 | ioannes | 1 | Right | Three or more dates in the next 10 days |
181948 | 2017-04-14 | 2019-01-01 | Nick.dylan | 6 | Wrong | China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. |
181949 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-04-28 | Somni | 1 | Wrong | illidanstr will accept and complete the Death by Hormones Exam within two weeks. |
181950 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Tech - FaceApp is revealed to send data from USB storage unrelated to its core functionality to the cloud before the end of May 2017. |
181951 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-04-15 | Somni | 1 | Right | Will discuss paperwork with Fib for at least 20 minutes today. |
181952 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 10,000 CAD$ / bitcoin on non-localbitcoins exchange shown on bitcoinwatch (or equivalent if bitcoinwatch goes down) |
181953 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-06-02 | ioannes | 13 | Wrong | More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 |
181954 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-06-02 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | More than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 |
181955 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-05-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >100 million views by May 1, 2017 |
181956 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-05-01 | ioannes | 1 | Wrong | Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by May 1, 2017 |
181957 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-12-01 | ioannes | 2 | Wrong | Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 |
181958 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-12-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 |
181959 | 2017-04-14 | 2017-06-01 | ioannes | 1 | Right | The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by June 1 2017 |
181962 | 2017-04-15 | 2017-04-15 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | buy machines embodying improved TFP = diminishing marginal returns to capital |
181963 | 2017-04-15 | 2017-04-23 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - A member of the Trump campaign is arrested in connection with an investigation into communications with Russian agents or the Russian government before the end of 2017-04-22. |
181966 | 2017-04-15 | 2018-12-24 | themusicgod1 | 6 | Wrong | Consumer-level "Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron" (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market |
181970 | 2017-04-15 | 2017-10-30 | pvoberstein | 2 | Right | Donald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017. |
181976 | 2017-04-16 | 2018-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Withdrawn | This claim will be withdrawn |
181977 | 2017-04-17 | 2017-04-17 | Somni | 1 | Right | I will go to the seder tonight. |
181978 | 2017-04-17 | 2017-04-19 | EloiseRosen | 6 | Wrong | terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) |
181979 | 2017-04-17 | 2017-05-01 | EloiseRosen | 2 | Wrong | United apologizes for conflict with engaged couple |
181985 | 2017-04-18 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 4 | Wrong | The UK Conservative Party will increase its majority in parliament as a result of the general election on 8th June. |
181986 | 2017-04-18 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | The UK Labour Party will lose seats as a result of the general election on 8th June |
181987 | 2017-04-18 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 6 | Right | The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June |
181988 | 2017-04-18 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 5 | Wrong | The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. |
181989 | 2017-04-18 | 2017-06-09 | technicalities | 3 | Wrong | The Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election. |
181995 | 2017-04-19 | 2017-04-19 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Russia is found guilty of crimes against humanity at the ICJ |
181996 | 2017-04-19 | 2017-06-09 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Right | 10 or fewer political parties win seats in the 2017 UK election |
181997 | 2017-04-19 | 2018-01-01 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | Fox News cuts ties with Bill O'Reilly |
181998 | 2017-04-19 | 2017-06-09 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Theresa May attends a TV debate with one or more leaders of other parties before the next UK General Election. |
181999 | 2017-04-19 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Politics, UK - A new Labour leadership election is announced before the end of June 2017. |
182000 | 2017-04-19 | 2017-05-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - Tennessee Senate passes bill permitting drivers to put "In God We Trust" on their license plates by the end of April 2017. |
182001 | 2017-04-19 | 2017-06-21 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - 6th District of Georgia is won by a Democrat at the runoff in June. |
182006 | 2017-04-20 | 2017-06-09 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, UK – An MP or an agent of an MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election. |
182011 | 2017-04-20 | 2018-07-15 | ioannes | 10 | Wrong | Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 |
182012 | 2017-04-20 | 2019-07-15 | ioannes | 11 | Wrong | Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 |
182013 | 2017-04-20 | 2018-01-01 | two2thehead | 1 | Right | Jason Chaffetz resigns from congress |
182014 | 2017-04-20 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, UK - A spokesperson for the Government states that it intends to retain freedom of movement with the EU, by the end of June 2017. |
182023 | 2017-04-22 | 2017-04-23 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Palemoon breaks first in test 1. |
182024 | 2017-04-22 | 2017-04-23 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Something else breaks in test 1 |
182031 | 2017-04-22 | 2020-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 4 | Right | On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 4 billion views. |
182032 | 2017-04-22 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | As of January 1, 2018, there will be at least five songs with over a billion streams each on Spotify. |
182041 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-05-08 | pvoberstein | 19 | Right | Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. |
182042 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-23 | Somni | 1 | Right | Ron headcannons Skitter as a trans girl. |
182043 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-25 | kuudes | 1 | Right | President of France 2017 elections: Macron makes to second round or wins on first round |
182044 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-25 | kuudes | 2 | Wrong | President of France 2017 elections: Fillon makes to second round or wins on first round |
182045 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-25 | kuudes | 2 | Right | President of France 2017 elections: Le Pen makes to second round or wins on first round |
182046 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-25 | kuudes | 1 | Wrong | President of France 2017 elections: Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round |
182047 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-25 | kuudes | 4 | Wrong | President of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round |
182048 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-30 | two2thehead | 1 | Right | President of France 2017 elections: Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste)(Incumbent Party) *won't* make it past the first round |
182049 | 2017-04-23 | 2017-04-23 | Somni | 1 | Right | The message is from Em. |
182057 | 2017-04-25 | 2017-05-25 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico |
182058 | 2017-04-25 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico |
182059 | 2017-04-25 | 3000-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | https://gnosis.pm survives longer than predictionbook |
182091 | 2017-04-27 | 2017-08-01 | ioannes | 2 | Right | I go to DEFCON in July 2017 |
182092 | 2017-04-27 | 2017-08-01 | ioannes | 2 | Wrong | L comes to DEF CON in July 2017 |
182093 | 2017-04-27 | 2017-08-01 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | I go to Ethiopia in June or July 2017 |
182094 | 2017-04-27 | 2017-04-29 | ioannes | 2 | Wrong | Tear gas deployed in Berkeley today |
182095 | 2017-04-27 | 2017-04-29 | ioannes | 2 | Wrong | Fires started during the Berkeley protest today |
182096 | 2017-04-27 | 2017-08-01 | ioannes | 4 | Wrong | I go to Kenya in June or July 2017 |
182097 | 2017-04-28 | 2017-10-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $125 million in lifetime money raised as of October 1, 2017. |
182098 | 2017-04-28 | 2018-03-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $150 million in lifetime money raised as of March 1, 2018. |
182099 | 2017-04-28 | 2017-05-06 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, Brazil - President Temer's pension reforms pass before the end of 2017-05-05. |
182100 | 2017-04-28 | 2017-05-03 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Tech - SpaceX successfully delivers NROL-76 to orbit, conditional on launch not being aborted. |
182101 | 2017-04-28 | 2017-05-03 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Tech - SpaceX successfully lands the first stage of the NROL-76 launch, conditional on launch not being aborted. |
182102 | 2017-04-28 | 2017-06-08 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - Trump or a representative announces the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem by the end of the 7th of June. |
182103 | 2017-04-29 | 2021-01-01 | Temeraire | 2 | | Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. |
182106 | 2017-04-30 | 2017-05-22 | Mike | 1 | Wrong | I will stay on the ketogenic diet for at least three weeks starting tomorrow, Monday 1 May. |
182112 | 2017-04-30 | 2018-12-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | W3C VCTF goes to CR |
182115 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182116 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182117 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182118 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182119 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182120 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182121 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182122 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. |
182123 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-05-01 | Tommy | 1 | | If North Korea has another underground nuclear explosion, it will result in an earthquake in the nearby Pacific rim. |
182125 | 2017-05-01 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 3-4 miners do 80%+ of mining for bitcoin [and any other mined cryptocurrency with bigger marketcap in USD than bitcoin] |
182126 | 2017-05-01 | 2017-06-08 | neilscott | 7 | Wrong | Conservatives will win the general election. |
182134 | 2017-05-02 | 2027-05-02 | two2thehead | 4 | | Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address |
182140 | 2017-05-03 | 2017-06-03 | ioannes | 1 | Right | June 2017 parents loan payment > $1200 |
182151 | 2017-05-06 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 5 | | Zuckerberg runs for POTUS, takes part in primaries for one of {Republican, Democrat} party and lasts to be at least in top 5 candidates |
182152 | 2017-05-06 | 2017-07-07 | baltemose | 3 | Wrong | July 7, 2017 will live in infamy . |
182155 | 2017-05-07 | 2017-05-13 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms leave committee, having voted on amendments, to be subsequently considered by the Chamber of Deputies before the end of 2017-05-12. |
182156 | 2017-05-07 | 2017-06-15 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - The Pentagon is confirmed to have agreed a lease or sublet of an apartment in Trump Tower in New York by a news outlet by the 14th of June 2017. |
182157 | 2017-05-07 | 2017-06-21 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US, New Orleans - All three remaining Confederacy monuments that Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the end of the 20th of June 2017. |
182158 | 2017-05-07 | 2017-06-21 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US, New Orleans - At least one of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove is removed by the end of the 20th of June, 2017. |
182159 | 2017-05-07 | 2017-06-21 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics, US, New Orleans - At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017. |
182167 | 2017-05-07 | 2017-05-09 | kuudes | 1 | Right | Unsong chapter 71 will be very similar to third line of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clod_and_the_Pebble "But for another gives its ease". |
182168 | 2017-05-07 | 2017-05-22 | kuudes | 1 | Right | Last chapter of Unsong will be numbered 72 |
182174 | 2017-05-08 | 2017-05-20 | Orian2 | 2 | Right | Macron is going to select a prime minister |
182180 | 2017-05-09 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 3 | Right | Labour will win in Nottingham East. |
182181 | 2017-05-09 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 2 | Right | Labour will win in Nottingham South. |
182182 | 2017-05-09 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 2 | Right | Labour will win in Midlothian |
182183 | 2017-05-09 | 2017-06-09 | splorridge | 3 | Right | Labour will win in Cambridge |
182184 | 2017-05-09 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, SJ - Everyday Feminism shuts down, or announces the scaling back of creating new articles by at least 50% due to funding constraints, before the end of June 2017 |
182185 | 2017-05-09 | 2017-05-28 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Michael Chong elected leader of Conservative Party of Canada |
182186 | 2017-05-10 | 2017-05-24 | bobpage | 5 | Wrong | c will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24 |
182187 | 2017-05-10 | 2017-08-10 | Somni | 1 | | There is a YMCA in San Francisco with a gender neutral changing room. |
182188 | 2017-05-10 | 2018-01-31 | MrBubu | 2 | | Umsatz für Fleischersatzprodukte in Deutschland für 2017 wird größer sein als der 2 Jahresdurchschnitt, i.e. der von 2015 und 2016 |
182189 | 2017-05-10 | 2017-06-18 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, US - Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate connections between the Trump Campaign and Russia by the 17th of June 2017. |
182190 | 2017-05-10 | 2017-06-18 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, US - Representative of the FBI states the FBI investigation into connections between the Trump Campaign and the Russian Government has been closed by the 17th of June 2017. |
182209 | 2017-05-12 | 2017-05-26 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, Iraq - Islamic State holds no territory in Mosul by the end of the 25th of May. |
182212 | 2017-05-12 | 2017-06-20 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - Flynn challenges the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. |
182224 | 2017-05-14 | 2017-12-31 | shm | 6 | Wrong | Ether (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017. |
182225 | 2017-05-14 | 2017-12-01 | ioannes | 20 | Wrong | More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 |
182237 | 2017-05-16 | 2017-05-20 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech, Google I/O 2017 - Copyless Paste is announced as going to be integrated into Gboard. |
182238 | 2017-05-16 | 2017-06-15 | John8128 | 19 | Wrong | President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office |
182239 | 2017-05-16 | 2017-06-20 | npcuck | 1 | Wrong | Ethan fails a class |
182240 | 2017-05-17 | 2017-06-09 | penten | 3 | Wrong | 2017 UK general election - Bath constituency elects conservative MP |
182241 | 2017-05-17 | 2017-06-09 | penten | 3 | Right | 2017 UK general election - North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP |
182242 | 2017-05-17 | 2017-06-09 | penten | 3 | Right | 2017 UK general election - Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP |
182243 | 2017-05-17 | 2017-06-01 | sjy | 3 | Right | BTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017 |
182244 | 2017-05-17 | 2020-01-01 | SeriousPod | 5 | Right | Trump's wall will never be built. At most, very small portions might. Definitely no wall the length of the border, as was his main campaign promise. |
182246 | 2017-05-18 | 2017-05-24 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Tech, Google I/O 2017 - Google announces the integration of an ad blocker, including one acting only for some types or classes or behaviours of advertisement into Chrome |
182247 | 2017-05-18 | 2017-05-24 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Tech, Google I/O 2017 - Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. |
182248 | 2017-05-18 | 2017-05-24 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech, Google I/O 2017 - A Google Home/Google Wifi combined product is announced. |
182249 | 2017-05-18 | 2017-05-24 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech, Google I/O 2017 - At least one new Pixel phone is announced. |
182250 | 2017-05-18 | 2017-05-24 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Tech, Google I/O 2017 - A standalone VR headset sold by Google is announced. |
182251 | 2017-05-18 | 2025-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 8 | | Trump creates "world peace" before leaving office |
182252 | 2017-05-18 | 2017-05-25 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | zip file has episode 385 in it |
182262 | 2017-05-18 | 2021-01-01 | jprettner | 4 | | Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. |
182263 | 2017-05-18 | 2036-01-01 | jprettner | 1 | | The average age of the United States senate will be 48 years old by 2035 |
182269 | 2017-05-19 | 2018-12-01 | burning.harvest | 1 | Right | The Democrats will take control of at least one Congressional house in the midterms. |
182270 | 2017-05-19 | 2018-01-01 | burning.harvest | 2 | Wrong | Another Nazi-punching college incident will occur this year. |
182271 | 2017-05-19 | 2018-01-01 | burning.harvest | 20 | Wrong | Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. |
182272 | 2017-05-19 | 2017-07-13 | burning.harvest | 5 | Right | I will get a 5 on the APUSH exam. |
182273 | 2017-05-19 | 2018-01-01 | burning.harvest | 6 | Right | I will get above average on the PSAT. |
182281 | 2017-05-20 | 2019-01-16 | erin | 2 | | Even if net neutrality regulations are retained through Pai's chair, they will be enforced less than when enacted, and ISPs will continue most noncompliant practices unchallenged |
182284 | 2017-05-20 | 2017-06-11 | quatrefoil | 1 | Right | I will go to a certain meetup. |
182285 | 2017-05-20 | 2017-05-27 | quatrefoil | 1 | Right | Prof will present the paper next week. |
182286 | 2017-05-20 | 2017-06-05 | quatrefoil | 1 | Wrong | I go to CRev. |
182287 | 2017-05-20 | 2027-05-20 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | Jared Kushner is the person of interest mentioned in the Washington post article |
182292 | 2017-05-20 | 2017-07-15 | Neonblitz | 2 | Wrong | Brazilian President Michel Temer will fall, renounce or have impeachment procedures initiated against him until mid-July 2017. |
182297 | 2017-05-21 | 2017-05-28 | Mike | 3 | Right | I will continue to allocate thirty minutes a day to journalling and task management for the first week of the experiment and will not miss a session. |
182307 | 2017-05-23 | 2017-06-09 | ikmacbeth | 5 | Right | There will a hung parliament as a result of the current UK general election |
182308 | 2017-05-23 | 2017-06-09 | lauragonzalez | 7 | Wrong | The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. |
182309 | 2017-05-23 | 2019-06-04 | Neonblitz | 6 | Wrong | Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. |
182315 | 2017-05-24 | 2017-11-03 | playablecharacter | 2 | Wrong | I leave east coast disappointed, sad, filled with regret, not worth it, etc |
182316 | 2017-05-24 | 2018-03-01 | playablecharacter | 3 | Wrong | I convince Issa that the East (TM) is worth living in,,..,,.,,..,,. |
182317 | 2017-05-24 | 2017-08-27 | shm | 1 | | Investor, producer or high-ranking internal official of Game of Thrones staff blames shorter season on piracy. |
182320 | 2017-05-24 | 2017-11-03 | playablecharacter | 2 | Right | I will change once I go east (I fucking better!) |
182321 | 2017-05-24 | 2017-06-01 | sebnow | 1 | Right | BTC will exceed $2500 USD on Bitstamp by the end of May 2017 |
182327 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-05-25 | bobpage | 2 | Right | AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie |
182328 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-05-25 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | willow tree instrumental song |
182329 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-06-01 | two2thehead | 1 | Withdrawn | [[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 1) Clap my hands |
182330 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-06-01 | two2thehead | 1 | Withdrawn | [[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 2) Snap my fingers |
182331 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-06-01 | two2thehead | 1 | Withdrawn | [[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 3) Awaken Cthulhu so He may take his rightful place as ruler of this puny planet |
182332 | 2017-05-25 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada |
182333 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - The leaker of the photos of the Manchester bombing is publicly identified before the end of June. |
182334 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-12-31 | Somni | 1 | Wrong | I'll complete Timeless Consent before the end of the year. |
182335 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Greg Gianforte apologises to the reporter he was charged with the assault of, including an apology that continues to understate things so long as it includes admission of error, by end of June. |
182336 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-08-01 | lavalamp | 2 | Wrong | bitcoin: trades above $3600 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. |
182338 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-08-01 | lavalamp | 2 | Wrong | bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. |
182339 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-08-01 | lavalamp | 2 | Wrong | bitcoin: trades above $4200 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. |
182340 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-08-01 | lavalamp | 2 | Wrong | bitcoin: trades above $5500 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. |
182341 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Politics, Venezuela - President Maduro remains in power through the end of June. |
182342 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-08-01 | lavalamp | 4 | Wrong | bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. |
182343 | 2017-05-25 | 2017-08-01 | lavalamp | 6 | Wrong | bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. |
182356 | 2017-05-26 | 2018-02-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | bitcoin hard fork occurs |
182357 | 2017-05-26 | 2022-06-01 | Emmanuel M. Smith | 11 | | As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. |
182358 | 2017-05-26 | 2020-01-01 | Emmanuel M. Smith | 4 | Wrong | I will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame. |
182359 | 2017-05-26 | 2021-05-02 | Emmanuel M. Smith | 2 | | At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. |
182364 | 2017-05-28 | 2018-11-30 | dipitashick | 3 | Right | Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 election. |
182367 | 2017-05-28 | 2017-06-04 | Mike | 2 | Wrong | [This week, I will get] less than 49 hours of sleep |
182368 | 2017-05-28 | 2017-06-04 | Mike | 2 | Right | [This week, I will get] between 49 and 56 hours of sleep |
182369 | 2017-05-28 | 2017-06-04 | Mike | 2 | Wrong | [This week, I will get] more than 56 hours of sleep |
182375 | 2017-05-29 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - Donald Trump announces partial but not full withdrawal from the Paris Agreement before the end of June 2017. |
182376 | 2017-05-29 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Business, UK - Alex Cruz is no longer the chief executive of British Airways by the end of June. |
182377 | 2017-05-29 | 2017-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Tech - AMD Radeon Vega Frontier Edition launches before the end of June. |
182378 | 2017-05-29 | 2017-06-04 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech, Computex - Before the end of Computex, AMD states an intended month for the release of Ryzen Threadripper CPUs. |
182379 | 2017-05-29 | 2018-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal - I am following a reducetarian diet such that at least half of my meals involve none of meat, fish (excl bivalves), cheese, or egg as of June 2018. |
182380 | 2017-05-29 | 2018-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal - I am following a vegetarian diet such that I view it as morally unacceptable to eat meat in non-emergency circumstances as of June 2018. |
182381 | 2017-05-29 | 2018-07-16 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Personal - I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. |
182382 | 2017-05-29 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal - I decide to move at least 10% of my EA donation budget to an organisation in the animal welfare cause area before June 2018. |
182383 | 2017-05-29 | 2018-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal - I decide to move at least 80% of my EA donation budget to existential risk charities by June 2018. |
182384 | 2017-05-29 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Community, Rationalist - Kernel Project is moved into Manchester by end of August. |
182385 | 2017-05-29 | 2018-01-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal - I move to remote working from Manchester by the end of 2017. |
182422 | 2017-05-31 | 2027-05-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | More than 50% of households in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. |
182423 | 2017-05-31 | 2027-05-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | More than 50% of households who have motorized vehicles in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. |
182424 | 2017-05-31 | 2017-05-31 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | nh legislature democrat-controlled |
182427 | 2017-06-01 | 2017-06-01 | bobpage | 3 | Right | Today, Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord |
182428 | 2017-06-01 | 2017-06-08 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | SpaceX's Falcon 9 will successfully launch within one week |
182430 | 2017-06-01 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | The Matrix "The Next Generation" / prequels released by Warner Bros |
182434 | 2017-06-01 | 2017-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually SystemD |
182435 | 2017-06-01 | 2017-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is something else |
182436 | 2017-06-01 | 2020-06-01 | bobpage | 17 | Wrong | The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election |
182439 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-09-21 | taryneast | 2 | Wrong | by age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue |
182440 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182441 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182442 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be less for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182443 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182444 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182445 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182446 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182447 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182448 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182449 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182450 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182451 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182452 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182453 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. |
182454 | 2017-06-02 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 6 | Right | Despacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. |
182455 | 2017-06-02 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 3 | Right | Shape of You will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018. |
182461 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | ServerFault will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/serverfault.com |
182462 | 2017-06-02 | 2017-07-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | Yelp (website) will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/yelp.com |
182465 | 2017-06-03 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Moore's law stops : bitcoin hashrate has not doubled in past 18 months. |
182476 | 2017-06-03 | 2056-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056 |
182477 | 2017-06-03 | 2019-01-01 | Paul.David.Carr | 1 | Wrong | Penn Jillette will get high for charity by the end of 2018. |
182480 | 2017-06-03 | 2017-07-02 | ioannes | 2 | Right | Parents' loan July payment > $999 |
182481 | 2017-06-03 | 2017-07-02 | ioannes | 1 | Right | Parents' loan July payment > $1400 |
182498 | 2017-06-05 | 2022-06-05 | Peteris | 1 | | Merlon intelligence will reach a billion dollar valuation in 5 years |
182499 | 2017-06-05 | 2019-06-05 | Peteris | 1 | Wrong | Merlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years |
182507 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 70 tests, chi-square on {days of wearing sunglasses,I have headache the next day} results in a statistically significant relationship at p=0.05 level |
182508 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-06-14 | peter_hurford | 2 | Right | JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 |
182509 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-06-14 | peter_hurford | 1 | Wrong | I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 |
182510 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-06-14 | peter_hurford | 1 | Wrong | I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 |
182511 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-06-14 | peter_hurford | 1 | Wrong | JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 |
182512 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-06-14 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | JD and I will successfully deliver the contracted work by the 14 June client deadline |
182513 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-07-06 | peter_hurford | 1 | Wrong | Someone in the ID will win the US Powerball lottery (and I hear about it) by the end of 6 July |
182514 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-06-20 | peter_hurford | 2 | Right | JD or I will <REDACTED CODE RFRI> by the end of 20 June |
182517 | 2017-06-06 | 2017-06-21 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $550 new in the US. |
182518 | 2017-06-06 | 2022-06-06 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated |
182519 | 2017-06-06 | 2022-06-06 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war} |
182520 | 2017-06-06 | 2022-06-06 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Iran will provide nuclear weapons to a terrorist group that will use one of them against israel or the united states |
182521 | 2017-06-06 | 2022-06-06 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. |
182524 | 2017-06-07 | 2017-12-31 | Nve | 2 | Right | 60 Bluechip Cryptocurrencies with individual market caps of over $100million would have existed by this point |
182525 | 2017-06-07 | 2017-06-08 | bobpage | 4 | Wrong | Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday |
182526 | 2017-06-07 | 2017-06-09 | penten | 1 | Right | I feel happier an more relaxed on Friday 9th than I did on Wednesday 7th June (slight anxiety) |
182562 | 2017-06-08 | 2017-06-09 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Anita Sarkeesian has read the Qur'an |
182563 | 2017-06-08 | 2017-06-09 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Financial Choice Act is passed by the US House of Representatives before the end of June. |
182564 | 2017-06-08 | 2018-06-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Withdrawn | Personal - My virtual betting spreadsheet demonstrates a profit after 50 virtual bets. |
182567 | 2017-06-08 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | US Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm] |
182568 | 2017-06-08 | 2018-06-07 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Russia compromised the integrity of the 2017 UK election process or either labour or conservatives found guilty of illegally colluding with russian government |
182579 | 2017-06-09 | 2021-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Amber Rudd next Prime Minister of the UK (post whoever wins #GE2017 |
182580 | 2017-06-09 | 2017-06-22 | penten | 2 | Right | Minority government in the UK |
182588 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My MTH445 grade will be] F |
182589 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My MTH445 grade will be] D |
182590 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My MTH445 grade will be] C |
182591 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My MTH445 grade will be] B |
182592 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Right | [My MTH445 grade will be] A |
182599 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] B |
182600 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 3 | Right | [My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] A |
182601 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] F |
182602 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] D |
182603 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] C |
182604 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | [My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] B |
182605 | 2017-06-10 | 2017-06-25 | quatrefoil | 2 | Right | [My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] A |
182609 | 2017-06-10 | 2019-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 16 | Wrong | Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. |
182612 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 1 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 62.5kg (137.79lb). |
182613 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 1 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 60.0kg (132.28lb). |
182614 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 1 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 55.0kg (121.25lb). |
182615 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 1 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: I have a bout ((chess)boxing, MMA, kickboxing, or otherwise) (amateur, white collar, pro, or otherwise). |
182616 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 1 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: 5x5 overhead press @ bodyweight (measured immediately before first set) |
182617 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 2 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Deadlift 1x5 @ 3x bodyweight (measured immediately before the set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. |
182618 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 1 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 1.75x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. |
182619 | 2017-06-11 | 2018-01-01 | KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk | 1 | | By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 2.00x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. |
182633 | 2017-06-12 | 2021-06-10 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years) |
182634 | 2017-06-12 | 2017-09-11 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 3 months) |
182635 | 2017-06-12 | 2018-06-10 | Quintrino | 1 | Withdrawn | This will work |
182639 | 2017-06-12 | 2018-06-10 | Quintrino | 1 | Withdrawn | this will work |
182640 | 2017-06-12 | 2018-06-10 | Quintrino | 1 | Withdrawn | this will work |
182643 | 2017-06-12 | 2017-06-14 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | The first run tomorrow (June 13) for NNP succeeds |
182675 | 2017-06-13 | 2017-08-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - Conservative Party announces, in some manner, the intent to retain the triple lock on pensions throughout the current parliament, before the end of July 2017. |
182676 | 2017-06-13 | 2017-08-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017, the DUP vote in favour, and as of their most recent public statements are not in coalition with the Conservatives. |
182677 | 2017-06-13 | 2017-08-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - The Conservative Party announces that plans for cuts to winter fuel payments are either scrapped or significantly reduced before the end of July 2017. |
182678 | 2017-06-13 | 2017-08-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, UK - The Conservative Party announces that their policy or backed legislative plan is now to scrap the reduction to housing benefit for those with a spare bedroom, with the announcement coming before the end of July 2017. |
182679 | 2017-06-13 | 2017-07-15 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Community, EA - Ethtruism.com's affiliated AMF fundraiser will get donations amounting to saving at least two lives in expectation, by the 14th of July. |
182909 | 2017-06-15 | 2018-01-02 | Pablo Stafforini | 7 | Right | On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). |
183041 | 2017-06-16 | 2020-11-07 | DragonGod | 3 | | Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections. |
183042 | 2017-06-16 | 2020-04-23 | DragonGod | 4 | | Macron will win the French 2020 elections |
183043 | 2017-06-16 | 2020-04-23 | DragonGod | 4 | | Macron will complete his term successfully |
183044 | 2017-06-16 | 2017-06-19 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal - I find my wallet |
183045 | 2017-06-16 | 2018-01-05 | two2thehead | 3 | Right | Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017 |
183048 | 2017-06-17 | 2033-01-01 | bobpage | 5 | | No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 |
183049 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-18 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | On 2017-06-18 gismeteo will show that there was rain on 2017-06-17 in Moscow |
183050 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-23 | crabman | 3 | Wrong | До четверга включительно я узнаю, что получил смску, где меня вызывают в суд насчет митинга |
183051 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-16 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | 2017-06-16 Слава скажет, что додзе закончилось, до 22-30 включительно |
183052 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-23 | crabman | 3 | Right | курс доллара по ЦБ за 2017-06-23 будет отличаться от курса за 2017-06-16 больше, чем на 50 копеек |
183053 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-24 | crabman | 3 | Wrong | Закон об анонимайзерах примут до 2017-06-23 включительно |
183054 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-17 | crabman | 1 | Right | В футбольном матче Россия-Новая Зеландия, который должен быть 2017-06-17, Россия победит не позже, чем 2017-06-23 |
183055 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-23 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | Слава Матюхин увеличит ТУ САМУЮ статью про додзе хотя бы на 100 байт до 2017-06-23 20:00 по Москве |
183056 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-23 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | Я сделаю питч секции про предсказания на рациональном додзе 2017-06-23 |
183057 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-23 | crabman | 2 | Right | Начиная с 2017-06-17 по 2017-06-23 20:00 на медузе появится новость, которая скажет, что на кого-то завели уголовное дело по поводу произошедшего на митингах 12 июня |
183058 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-17 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | China’s GDP for 2017-06-17 is at least 50% of sum of GDPs of all countries |
183059 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-06-23 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | По истории gismeteo в какой-нибудь момент между 2017-06-16 и 2017-06-22 (включительно и включительно) в Москве будет 25 градусов или выше |
183060 | 2017-06-17 | 2017-07-17 | crabman | 1 | Right | Chalker выложит статью про то, откуда он взял мой пароль, до 2017-07-16 включительно |
183063 | 2017-06-17 | 2018-01-01 | Alaric | 2 | Wrong | В этом году (2017) выйдет последняя книга цикла Веры Камши "Отблески Этерны" |
183070 | 2017-06-17 | 2018-03-19 | crabman | 4 | Right | A candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections |
183071 | 2017-06-18 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future |
183074 | 2017-06-18 | 2025-06-13 | crabman | 2 | | I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research |
183075 | 2017-06-18 | 2018-06-17 | crabman | 2 | Right | If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in a year |
183076 | 2017-06-18 | 2018-01-16 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in half a year |
183077 | 2017-06-18 | 2017-08-17 | crabman | 3 | Right | If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months |
183108 | 2017-06-19 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019 |
183109 | 2017-06-19 | 2020-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 |
183110 | 2017-06-19 | 2021-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | | I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021 |
183111 | 2017-06-19 | 2018-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will be employed (excluding self-employment) at some point before 2018 |
183112 | 2017-06-19 | 2117-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | | I will step on Mars before I die |
183161 | 2017-06-20 | 2017-08-20 | peter_hurford | 3 | Wrong | I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 |
183310 | 2017-06-22 | 2017-08-20 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). |
183318 | 2017-06-23 | 2017-07-04 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | aljazeera shut down |
183325 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-07-20 | jamesaguilar | 1 | Right | [In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will die |
183326 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-07-20 | jamesaguilar | 1 | Right | [In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will be killed by some entity other than Kellhus |
183327 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-07-20 | jamesaguilar | 1 | Right | [In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed or its future destruction will be strongly implied. |
183328 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-07-20 | jamesaguilar | 1 | Wrong | [In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed by Kellhus. |
183329 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-07-20 | jamesaguilar | 1 | Wrong | [In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will be killed |
183330 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-07-20 | jamesaguilar | 1 | Wrong | [In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will find the Heron Spear. |
183331 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-07-20 | jamesaguilar | 1 | Wrong | [In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the Heron Spear will be used |
183332 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-09-21 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | I have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17. |
183333 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-06-26 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Debian boots successfully without breaking Ubuntu or Linpus on Hedy (my laptop) |
183336 | 2017-06-25 | 2017-06-27 | two2thehead | 3 | Right | [Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches AND lands successfully |
183443 | 2017-06-27 | 2017-11-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Right | Ubuntu 17.10 released |
183457 | 2017-06-28 | 2017-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Crime, UK - Suspects arrested in connection to masked men who ransacked house in Robroyston, Glasgow by end of July, and there are media reports of this. |
183458 | 2017-06-28 | 2017-07-06 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, Venezuela - Helicopter used in attack on Supreme Court is found before the 6th of July. |
183459 | 2017-06-28 | 2017-07-06 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, Venezuela - Oscar Perez found and captured by the government by the 6th of July. |
183511 | 2017-06-30 | 2017-07-05 | quatrefoil | 1 | Right | [The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Mack Meller |
183512 | 2017-06-30 | 2017-07-05 | quatrefoil | 1 | Wrong | [The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Joey Mallick |
183515 | 2017-06-30 | 2018-01-01 | crabman | 1 | Right | Лизу позовут на оффлайн-собеседования в яндекс на интерна-ресерч-девелопера в 2017 #other_people |
183521 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-03 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | [GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between August 1 and August 31, 2017 |
183522 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-03 | Vipul Naik | 4 | Right | [GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between September 1 and September 30, 2017 |
183523 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-03 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | [GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between October 1 and December 31, 2017 |
183524 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-03 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | [GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] never |
183525 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-03 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Wrong | [GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] on or after January 1, 2018 |
183526 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 6 | Right | [The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Despacito |
183527 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Wrong | [The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] See You Again |
183528 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Wrong | [The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Shape Of You |
183529 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Wrong | [The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released on or after June 1, 2017 |
183530 | 2017-07-01 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Wrong | [The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released before June 1, 2017, that is not in the above list |
183531 | 2017-07-02 | 2017-07-03 | two2thehead | 1 | Wrong | [Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] |
183532 | 2017-07-02 | 2017-07-03 | two2thehead | 1 | Wrong | [Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches and lands successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] |
183533 | 2017-07-02 | 2017-08-02 | ioannes | 1 | Right | August payment of parents loan > $1400 |
183534 | 2017-07-02 | 2017-08-02 | ioannes | 2 | Right | August payment of parents loan > $700 |
183646 | 2017-07-07 | 2017-08-07 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | EA Grants receives >=$1M USD in total fundraising requests from all submitted 2017 applications |
183647 | 2017-07-08 | 2017-07-08 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | My thinkpad's battery will run out during the bus drive to Summer School |
183648 | 2017-07-08 | 2017-08-15 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Business, US - Charles Payne resigns from Fox before the 15th of August 2017. |
183649 | 2017-07-08 | 2017-08-09 | jbeshir | 5 | Right | Politics, UK - Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. |
183650 | 2017-07-08 | 2017-07-17 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, Syria - No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first. |
183651 | 2017-07-09 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Tech - Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. |
183817 | 2017-07-13 | 2030-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease |
183842 | 2017-07-15 | 2017-07-15 | saneoualhadath | 1 | Wrong | http://saneoualhadath.me |
183843 | 2017-07-15 | 2019-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address |
183844 | 2017-07-15 | 2017-09-15 | crabman | 1 | Right | I will meet with someone from my Summer school (ЛШ) cycle whom I didn't know before during the next 2 months #personal |
183845 | 2017-07-15 | 2017-10-15 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | I will start working for pay during the next 3 months |
183846 | 2017-07-15 | 2017-08-16 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | I will move to L29ah's apartments during the next month |
183847 | 2017-07-15 | 2017-09-16 | crabman | 3 | Wrong | I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal |
183848 | 2017-07-15 | 2017-08-16 | crabman | 4 | Withdrawn | #personal If I try psychotherapy in the next 1 months, I will think it's been time and money and other resources well pent |
183908 | 2017-07-18 | 2017-10-01 | ioannes | 8 | Wrong | Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) |
183909 | 2017-07-18 | 2017-10-16 | ioannes | 4 | Right | I go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017 |
183981 | 2017-07-19 | 2017-07-20 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) |
183982 | 2017-07-19 | 2017-08-20 | crabman | 6 | Wrong | Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 |
184009 | 2017-07-21 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - General Sessions Judge Sam Benningfield's standing order such that prisoner's sentences are reduced in exchange for vasectomies is no longer in effect at the start of the 1st of September 2017. |
184010 | 2017-07-21 | 2017-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, EU - EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of July 2017. |
184011 | 2017-07-21 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, EU - EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017. |
184012 | 2017-07-21 | 2017-07-29 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, Italy - C-Star docks in Catania before the end of the 28th of July 2017. |
184024 | 2017-07-21 | 2018-02-01 | iCrown | 2 | Right | 2017 will be the second hottest year since 1880 according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index published by NASA/GISS. |
184036 | 2017-07-22 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal, Business Interactions – BT has not incorrectly billed my bank account by the 1st of September 2017. |
184207 | 2017-07-24 | 2019-01-01 | Dapple | 1 | Right | USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 |
184208 | 2017-07-24 | 2017-07-25 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, Canada - Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy. |
184209 | 2017-07-24 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, Turkey - Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September. |
184210 | 2017-07-24 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Politics, US - Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. |
184219 | 2017-07-25 | 2018-01-01 | michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com | 5 | Wrong | a commercial aircraft will crash in the US before 2018, resulting in casualties. |
184220 | 2017-07-25 | 2021-01-21 | michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com | 8 | | There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) |
184221 | 2017-07-25 | 2017-12-25 | michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com | 3 | Right | My friend will be pregnant before Christmas 2017 |
184222 | 2017-07-25 | 2017-08-08 | michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com | 1 | Wrong | The fresh scar on my leg will be healed in 2 weeks |
184227 | 2017-07-25 | 2017-08-01 | two2thehead | 1 | Right | North Korea tests another ICBM within one week |
184228 | 2017-07-25 | 2018-01-05 | two2thehead | 1 | Wrong | Jeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017 |
184229 | 2017-07-25 | 2017-07-26 | crabman | 1 | Right | Habidatum will invite me to non-paid internship |
184232 | 2017-07-25 | 2017-07-25 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | They don't serve a meal on the plane |
184320 | 2017-07-27 | 2024-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 13 | | Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft |
184323 | 2017-07-27 | 2017-07-27 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | My supervisors will tell me that I did wrong things and was not effective, or that I should really change what I am doing, e.g. be less academic |
184324 | 2017-07-27 | 2017-08-13 | crabman | 1 | Withdrawn | If I apply to http://algorythm.tech, they will accept me #personal |
184325 | 2017-07-27 | 2017-08-10 | crabman | 1 | Withdrawn | If I do http://algorythm.tech test exercise, it will take me 12-36 hours #planning |
184326 | 2017-07-28 | 2017-08-06 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Both backups fail |
184343 | 2017-07-30 | 2018-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | Despacito will reach 4 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 4 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. |
184413 | 2017-08-01 | 2017-09-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal, Business Interactions - To my knowledge, BT has not caused a phone line other than my own to cease working during the process of switching my line over before the start of September. |
184414 | 2017-08-01 | 2017-08-02 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal, Business Interactions - My Halifax card arrives today. |
184415 | 2017-08-01 | 2017-08-07 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal, Business Interactions - My Halifax card arrives before next Monday. |
184416 | 2017-08-01 | 2017-08-14 | crabman | 1 | Withdrawn | If I do algorythm.tech test exercise, it will take me between 5 and 30 hours #planning #personal |
184435 | 2017-08-02 | 2017-08-04 | leo_gri | 3 | Wrong | Trump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 - 3 (2017) |
184438 | 2017-08-03 | 2028-06-01 | icrbow | 2 | | Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028 |
184439 | 2017-08-03 | 2018-12-30 | icrbow | 2 | Wrong | 1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018 |
184440 | 2017-08-03 | 2019-12-30 | icrbow | 2 | Wrong | 1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019 |
184441 | 2017-08-03 | 2017-08-03 | quatrefoil | 1 | Right | TWOPENCES is in the most recent North American Scrabble dictionary |
184442 | 2017-08-03 | 2017-08-27 | bendini | 1 | Wrong | Conor McGregor wins against Floyd Mayweather Jr. |
184446 | 2017-08-04 | 2017-08-06 | Michael Dickens | 3 | Wrong | Paragon Exhibition Tournament winner is Team Reborn |
184474 | 2017-08-05 | 2017-09-04 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | US Navy conducts a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea within 30 days |
184538 | 2017-08-07 | 2017-10-01 | btrettel | 2 | Right | I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes |
184553 | 2017-08-08 | 2017-09-17 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. |
184554 | 2017-08-08 | 2017-09-01 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) |
184555 | 2017-08-08 | 2017-09-17 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | The company I am interning at will hire Ildar |
184556 | 2017-08-08 | 2017-08-15 | Pablo Stafforini | 1 | Right | Adam Grant won't revise or retract his article 'Differences between Men and Women are Vastly Exaggerated' in response to Scott Alexander's criticisms (http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/08/07/contra-grant-on-exaggerated-differences/). |
184578 | 2017-08-09 | 2020-11-03 | gurgus | 14 | Wrong | Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. |
184579 | 2017-08-09 | 2020-11-03 | gurgus | 11 | | Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term |
184580 | 2017-08-09 | 2018-01-01 | gurgus | 3 | Right | There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 |
184581 | 2017-08-09 | 2017-11-19 | gurgus | 1 | Right | Rafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017 |
184582 | 2017-08-09 | 2017-11-19 | gurgus | 1 | Right | The year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal |
184599 | 2017-08-11 | 2017-09-10 | two2thehead | 11 | Wrong | [North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles |
184600 | 2017-08-11 | 2017-09-10 | two2thehead | 10 | Wrong | [North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles |
184601 | 2017-08-11 | 2017-09-10 | two2thehead | 11 | Wrong | [North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles |
184604 | 2017-08-12 | 2018-11-10 | atomicspaceman | 1 | | Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities |
184605 | 2017-08-13 | 2017-08-13 | tmarkov | 1 | Right | I will get up from bed before 8am on Aug 12, 2017 |
184606 | 2017-08-13 | 2017-08-13 | tmarkov | 1 | Wrong | I will get out of the apartment before 9:15am on Aug 12, 2017 |
184611 | 2017-08-13 | 2017-12-01 | btrettel | 1 | Right | I will be admitted to the 2017 Envision Conference |
184612 | 2017-08-13 | 2018-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Charlottesville car driver shown to be antifa escaping from BLM protesters |
184613 | 2017-08-13 | 2019-07-09 | themusicgod1 | 5 | Wrong | Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros |
184614 | 2017-08-13 | 2019-07-01 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) |
184615 | 2017-08-13 | 2019-07-09 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Right | Charlottesville car driver supports Trump |
184693 | 2017-08-15 | 2018-01-01 | btrettel | 4 | Wrong | My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 |
184747 | 2017-08-17 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa |
184802 | 2017-08-19 | 2019-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar |
184803 | 2017-08-19 | 2017-08-19 | quatrefoil | 2 | Wrong | The first time my dad returns home today, he has at least one pair of eclipse glasses |
184804 | 2017-08-19 | 2025-01-28 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government |
184805 | 2017-08-20 | 2047-08-17 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years |
184808 | 2017-08-20 | 2017-09-05 | Pablo Stafforini | 4 | Right | In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%. |
185027 | 2017-08-23 | 2019-08-23 | quatrefoil | 1 | Wrong | Josh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. |
185144 | 2017-08-25 | 2017-10-24 | MrBubu | 1 | Wrong | [Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen |
185145 | 2017-08-25 | 2017-10-24 | MrBubu | 1 | Right | [Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin |
185146 | 2017-08-25 | 2017-08-29 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Right | Flooding in texas, at least 1 casualty |
185147 | 2017-08-26 | 2018-06-16 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region |
185148 | 2017-08-26 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | Venezuela defaults on its debt |
185149 | 2017-08-26 | 2024-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | early election call in ontario |
185196 | 2017-08-28 | 2018-01-01 | playablecharacter | 7 | Wrong | North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 |
185224 | 2017-08-29 | 2020-09-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field |
185225 | 2017-08-29 | 2018-10-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions) |
185226 | 2017-08-29 | 2026-08-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect) |
185227 | 2017-08-29 | 2026-05-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy |
185228 | 2017-08-29 | 2026-05-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges |
185229 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-03-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success |
185230 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-03-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success |
185231 | 2017-08-29 | 2026-11-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success |
185232 | 2017-08-29 | 2026-11-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success |
185233 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-03-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success |
185234 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-03-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success |
185235 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-07-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success |
185236 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-07-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success |
185237 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-04-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success |
185238 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-04-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success |
185239 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success |
185240 | 2017-08-29 | 2027-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 3 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success |
185241 | 2017-08-29 | 2026-12-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success |
185242 | 2017-08-29 | 2020-08-15 | saskboy | 2 | | By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business |
185268 | 2017-08-30 | 2027-10-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work |
185269 | 2017-08-30 | 2029-10-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 |
185270 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01 |
185271 | 2017-08-30 | 2022-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 |
185272 | 2017-08-30 | 2027-12-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success |
185273 | 2017-08-30 | 2027-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success |
185274 | 2017-08-30 | 2027-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success |
185275 | 2017-08-30 | 2026-10-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success |
185276 | 2017-08-30 | 2026-10-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success |
185277 | 2017-08-30 | 2021-10-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 3 | | The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 |
185278 | 2017-08-30 | 2021-09-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over |
185279 | 2017-08-30 | 2021-09-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over |
185280 | 2017-08-30 | 2021-09-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over |
185281 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | [The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500 |
185282 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | | [The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400 |
185283 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | 80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 |
185284 | 2017-08-30 | 2019-02-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 1 | Right | [The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 |
185285 | 2017-08-30 | 2019-02-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | Wrong | [The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 |
185286 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 5 | Right | [The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) |
185287 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 8 | Wrong | [The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) |
185288 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 5 | Wrong | [The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) |
185289 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 6 | Wrong | [The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) |
185301 | 2017-08-30 | 2019-12-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 3 | | By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 |
185302 | 2017-08-30 | 2019-12-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 |
185303 | 2017-08-30 | 2027-04-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 3 | Right | Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 |
185304 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) |
185305 | 2017-08-30 | 2020-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment) |
185306 | 2017-08-30 | 2019-01-01 | OpenPhilUnofficial | 2 | | The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016 |
185382 | 2017-08-31 | 2017-08-31 | elephantower | 1 | Right | Dan Malloy is a Dem |
185383 | 2017-08-31 | 2027-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 3 | | Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. |
185384 | 2017-08-31 | 2030-01-01 | saskboy | 2 | | "SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels." |
185395 | 2017-09-02 | 2018-03-03 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | James Damore running his own business |
185409 | 2017-09-04 | 2022-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court |
185535 | 2017-09-07 | 2067-09-08 | two2thehead | 3 | | [Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer |
185613 | 2017-09-09 | 2018-05-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Ubuntu 18.04 released, not totally unusable |
185614 | 2017-09-09 | 2017-09-10 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | Я не опоздаю на прыжок к 11:00. (если опоздаем все вместе из-за того, что я встречал Сашу, то не считается) |
185618 | 2017-09-10 | 2027-09-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | S.M. is gay |
185685 | 2017-09-12 | 2017-10-12 | two2thehead | 2 | Right | [Verge iphone 8 rumours] Face scanning camera |
185686 | 2017-09-12 | 2017-10-12 | two2thehead | 1 | Right | [Verge iphone 8 rumours] $999+ price |
185687 | 2017-09-12 | 2017-10-12 | two2thehead | 1 | Right | [Verge iphone 8 rumours] Wireless charging |
185691 | 2017-09-12 | 2100-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Wogs do not differ, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl but not limited to 50-65% compliance ) |
185692 | 2017-09-12 | 2100-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance ) |
185693 | 2017-09-12 | 2100-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance ) |
185796 | 2017-09-15 | 2020-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 10 | Wrong | Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable |
185805 | 2017-09-17 | 2018-01-17 | regex | 2 | Withdrawn | I will get four A's this term |
185807 | 2017-09-17 | 2018-01-17 | regex | 1 | Right | I will get no worse than a B- for any class this term |
185963 | 2017-09-20 | 2027-09-21 | two2thehead | 2 | | Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum |
185964 | 2017-09-21 | 2017-09-24 | themusicgod1 | 2 | Wrong | End of the world/Nibiru collides with earth, not including(or at least beginning with) a human-made nuclear weapons catastrophe |
185965 | 2017-09-21 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Someone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians |
186026 | 2017-09-23 | 2060-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Libertarian Party of in Canada fields full slate(currently 338) candidates in a federal election |
186027 | 2017-09-23 | 2060-01-01 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Libertarian Party of Canada receives >2.1% of the vote in any federal election |
186173 | 2017-09-29 | 2027-09-29 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) |
186248 | 2017-10-02 | 2017-12-12 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | Russell was involved in the Gamby shooting (not exclusive with Ray shooting) |
186249 | 2017-10-02 | 2017-12-12 | elephantower | 2 | Wrong | A stereo thief shot Gamby |
186250 | 2017-10-02 | 2017-12-12 | elephantower | 2 | Wrong | brown shot gamby |
186256 | 2017-10-02 | 2017-12-01 | ioannes | 5 | Wrong | Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) |
186286 | 2017-10-03 | 2018-02-01 | Athrithalix | 8 | Wrong | The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. |
186287 | 2017-10-03 | 2018-02-01 | Athrithalix | 2 | Right | The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will be declared successful, whether it meets all objectives or not. |
186288 | 2017-10-03 | 2022-10-01 | Athrithalix | 2 | | The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017. |
186289 | 2017-10-03 | 2018-10-02 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Nevada will pass no further gun control laws as a result of the October shooting. |
186290 | 2017-10-03 | 2018-10-03 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Boris Johnson will not be sacked over recent Brexit issues within the next year. |
186291 | 2017-10-03 | 2019-01-11 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | Nintendo announces Melee HD for Switch before end of 2018. |
186292 | 2017-10-03 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Nintendo announces a new instalment in the Super Smash Bros franchise before the end of 2018. |
186293 | 2017-10-03 | 2026-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | | Lockheed Martin's Mars lander concept (as presented at IAC 2017) will be abandoned without ever being built. |
186294 | 2017-10-03 | 2019-10-03 | Athrithalix | 3 | Wrong | The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. |
186295 | 2017-10-03 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 2 | | LUST ICO turns out to be a scam |
186328 | 2017-10-04 | 2019-10-04 | Michael Dickens | 2 | | (Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar |
186329 | 2017-10-04 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmCDxmZI3I8 is censored |
186414 | 2017-10-07 | 2023-05-22 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs |
186415 | 2017-10-08 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | Stephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS |
186416 | 2017-10-08 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | https://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies |
186417 | 2017-10-08 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Right | I will use IRC in 2018 |
186418 | 2017-10-08 | 2019-01-01 | bobpage | 2 | Wrong | I will move before 2019 |
186541 | 2017-10-10 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Right | dawla al islamyya 'completely defeated' in iraq |
186573 | 2017-10-11 | 2018-01-30 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | I will finish Analysis 1 at IUM this year |
186574 | 2017-10-11 | 2018-01-30 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | I will finish Algebra 1 at IUM this year |
186575 | 2017-10-11 | 2018-01-30 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | I will finish Geometry 1 at IUM this year |
186576 | 2017-10-11 | 2017-11-11 | crabman | 2 | Wrong | I will have dropped piano by this date |
186577 | 2017-10-11 | 2018-01-01 | crabman | 2 | Right | I will have dropped piano by this date |
186578 | 2017-10-11 | 2020-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Steve Bannon one of 5 remaining candidates in republican primaries, 2020 |
186594 | 2017-10-11 | 2019-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Trudeau's new Canadian copyright act removes ability to transfer copyright |
186595 | 2017-10-11 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | 0 Equifax executives convicted/jailed |
186596 | 2017-10-11 | 2018-02-11 | themusicgod1 | 3 | Wrong | Main bitcoin branch/fork valued at $27,395 bitstampUSD |
186597 | 2017-10-11 | 2020-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world |
186598 | 2017-10-12 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | Donald Trump renegotiates US foreign debt |
186610 | 2017-10-12 | 2020-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 2 | Right | On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 6 billion views. |
186634 | 2017-10-12 | 2017-12-31 | peter_hurford | 3 | Wrong | The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired |
186639 | 2017-10-12 | 2027-10-09 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists |
186640 | 2017-10-12 | 2020-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 21 | | Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence |
186641 | 2017-10-12 | 2020-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 6 | | 25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 |
186642 | 2017-10-12 | 2018-12-31 | gringer | 1 | | [Marginal cost-per-base on any ONT MinION (or similar ultra-portable successor) run will be] equal to or lower than any Illumina HiSeq run, using the same physical MinION flow cell [sequencing well] structure as available 2017-Oct-01 |
186643 | 2017-10-12 | 2018-12-31 | gringer | 1 | | [Marginal cost-per-base on any ONT MinION (or similar ultra-portable successor) run will be] equal to or lower than any Illumina NovaSeq run, using the same physical MinION flow cell [sequencing well] structure as available 2017-Oct-01 |
186644 | 2017-10-12 | 2018-12-31 | gringer | 1 | | [Marginal cost-per-base on any ONT MinION (or similar ultra-portable successor) run will be] less than 1/10th the cost of all Illumina NovaSeq runs, using a different physical MinION flow cell structure from that available 2017-Oct-01 |
186645 | 2017-10-13 | 2020-03-01 | themusicgod1 | 4 | Wrong | Bitcoin at 40,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs |
186666 | 2017-10-16 | 2018-02-10 | RandomThinker | 2 | Wrong | Packers sign Milwaukee native Colin Kaepernick as QB, who leads them to the Superbowl |
186736 | 2017-10-18 | 2017-12-20 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | The payload satellites on Rocket Lab's 'Still Testing' Electron rocket will deploy and operate successfully. |
186761 | 2017-10-19 | 2017-11-16 | Pablo Stafforini | 1 | Right | ADN testing will confirm that the body found last Tuesday in Chubut, Argentina is Santiago Maldonado's. |
186793 | 2017-10-20 | 2017-12-31 | lavalamp | 5 | Right | Bitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. |
186794 | 2017-10-20 | 2017-12-31 | lavalamp | 4 | Right | Bitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. |
186795 | 2017-10-20 | 2017-12-31 | lavalamp | 4 | Right | Bitcoin: trades above 9k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. |
186796 | 2017-10-20 | 2017-12-31 | lavalamp | 5 | Right | Bitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. |
186801 | 2017-10-21 | 2017-10-28 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, EU - Spanish Senate approves proposed plan for elections in Catalonia by the end of 2017-10-27. |
186802 | 2017-10-21 | 2017-11-04 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Business, US - Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of 2017-11-03 |
186803 | 2017-10-21 | 2017-12-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Business, US - Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of November 2017 |
186804 | 2017-10-21 | 2017-10-22 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal, Productivity - I will do my strength and flexibility exercises on 2017-10-22. |
186808 | 2017-10-22 | 2018-12-31 | WilliamKiely | 2 | Wrong | The new Amazon HQ will be hosted in the Austin-Round Rock, TX metro area |
187012 | 2017-10-27 | 2020-08-19 | themusicgod1 | 15 | | >50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day |
187020 | 2017-10-29 | 2017-11-20 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-19. |
187021 | 2017-10-29 | 2017-12-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge President Trump with a crime. |
187022 | 2017-10-29 | 2017-12-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Paul Manafort with a crime. |
187023 | 2017-10-29 | 2017-12-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Michael Flynn with a crime. |
187024 | 2017-10-29 | 2017-12-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Jared Kushner with a crime. |
187053 | 2017-10-30 | 2017-12-31 | juncholi | 3 | Wrong | STOCK- the US equity market will experience a mini-crash by the end of 2017 |
187056 | 2017-10-30 | 2018-10-08 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Right | [The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Jair Bolsonaro in the first round or have him advance to the runoff |
187057 | 2017-10-30 | 2018-10-08 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff |
187058 | 2017-10-30 | 2018-10-08 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [The Brazilian presidential election will] have neither Lula da Silva nor Jair Bolsonaro win outright, and neither will advance to the runoff |
187059 | 2017-10-30 | 2018-10-08 | Bruno Parga | 4 | Right | [The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff |
187060 | 2017-10-30 | 2018-10-08 | Bruno Parga | 4 | Wrong | [The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%) |
187061 | 2017-10-30 | 2018-10-08 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [The Brazilian presidential election will] have no state won by a candidate that finishes third or lower overall |
187096 | 2017-10-31 | 2018-03-16 | lavalamp | 3 | Right | [Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 1x/core/legacy fork is the sole surviving chain, and core does not double the block size. |
187097 | 2017-10-31 | 2018-03-16 | lavalamp | 3 | Wrong | [Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] Both the 1x and 2x chains survive. |
187200 | 2017-11-02 | 2019-12-31 | Athrithalix | 1 | | ARCA Space will cancel development of its Haas 2C vehicle before the end of 2019. |
187201 | 2017-11-02 | 2017-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | | Android + iOS both have apps available that can 3D scan your feet so you can 3D print your own shoes at home. At least one person prints & wears these shoes around and is caught on something like instagram doing so. |
187202 | 2017-11-02 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 7 | | (regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc) |
187203 | 2017-11-02 | 2018-12-31 | themusicgod1 | 1 | Wrong | python-ethereum makes it into ubuntu |
187220 | 2017-11-04 | 2021-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | | Data published by Cisco in 2019 or 2020 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2019 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 186 EB. |
187221 | 2017-11-05 | 2022-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | | Data published by Cisco in 2020 or 2021 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2020 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 228 EB. |
187245 | 2017-11-06 | 2019-05-03 | xzvf | 6 | Right | There will be a Wikipedia page detailing the crypto currency boom resembling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble |
187246 | 2017-11-06 | 2027-11-06 | Uisaria | 2 | | I will become a famous singer |
187340 | 2017-11-11 | 2017-12-13 | jbeshir | 7 | Wrong | Politics, US - Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat. |
187341 | 2017-11-11 | 2018-01-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, US - Mike Flynn is indicted before the end of 2017. |
187342 | 2017-11-11 | 2017-12-30 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Business, UK - Donald Brydon ceases to be chairman of LSE. |
187345 | 2017-11-12 | 2018-07-01 | Gibs | 13 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia |
187346 | 2017-11-12 | 2017-11-13 | Gibs | 1 | | I will win the lottery |
187347 | 2017-11-12 | 2018-11-01 | mattdraghi | 2 | Right | The cubs will not win the 2018 world series |
187571 | 2017-11-14 | 2027-12-31 | Athrithalix | 1 | | Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027 |
187572 | 2017-11-14 | 2021-12-31 | Athrithalix | 1 | | Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. |
187644 | 2017-11-16 | 2017-12-17 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Right | [Crisis in Zimbabwe] Coup succeeds; Mugabe either remains de jure president but under house arrest, or agrees to gracefully leave. Generals install a new de facto ruler ─ probably but not necessarily Mnangagwa |
187645 | 2017-11-16 | 2017-12-17 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [Crisis in Zimbabwe] Mr and Mrs Mugabe and/or other factions dispute power with the generals; violence erupts, no single clear de facto leadership in the country |
187646 | 2017-11-16 | 2017-12-17 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [Crisis in Zimbabwe] Something other than a Mugabe restoration, an army-supported takeover, or unrest/civil war |
187647 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Right | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Emmerson Mnangagwa |
187648 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Grace Mugabe |
187649 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Morgan Tsvangirai |
187650 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Constantino Chiwenga |
187651 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Some other veteran of the War of Independence |
187652 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Saviour Kasukuwere |
187653 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Ignatius Chombo |
187654 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Patrick Zhuwayo (Robert Mugabe's nephew) |
187655 | 2017-11-16 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Someone who is not a war veteran and not a member of ZANU-PF (excluding Tsvangirai) |
187680 | 2017-11-17 | 2022-11-17 | Jach | 4 | | In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today |
187681 | 2017-11-17 | 2018-01-01 | Jach | 1 | Wrong | Godot 3.0 will have a stable release by the end of the year |
187730 | 2017-11-22 | 2018-11-20 | gurgus | 2 | Right | Either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will finish ATP year-end number 1 in 2018 |
187731 | 2017-11-22 | 2018-06-30 | ekr | 1 | Right | Hardkernel releases a new Odroid SBC before June 30th 2018. (they've been postponing the release of a roadmap since June 2017: https://forum.odroid.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=18002&start=250#p200485). |
187732 | 2017-11-22 | 2018-12-31 | ekr | 1 | Wrong | AMD crosses 25% cpu market share by end of 2018. (according to Passmark Cpu Benchmarks) |
187733 | 2017-11-22 | 2023-06-30 | ekr | 2 | | World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate). |
187739 | 2017-11-24 | 2019-01-02 | Vipul Naik | 1 | Right | By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Percentage of pages loaded over HTTPS in Chrome by platform” on Windows will exceed 75%. |
187762 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Right | Facebook will match at least $1,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187763 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Right | Facebook will match at least $2,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187764 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Right | Facebook will match at least $4,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187765 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 4 | Right | Facebook will match at least $8,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187766 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Right | Facebook will match at least $16,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187767 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Right | Facebook will match at least $32,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187768 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Wrong | Facebook will match at least $64,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187769 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Wrong | Facebook will match at least $125,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187770 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Wrong | Facebook will match at least $250,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187771 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Wrong | Facebook will match at least $500,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187772 | 2017-11-24 | 2018-11-29 | WilliamKiely | 5 | Wrong | Facebook will match at least $1,000,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday |
187788 | 2017-11-25 | 2018-11-16 | lucasmafaldo | 2 | Wrong | [Brazil's next president will be] Alckmin |
187789 | 2017-11-25 | 2018-11-16 | lucasmafaldo | 2 | Wrong | [Brazil's next president will be] Ciro Gomes |
187790 | 2017-11-25 | 2018-11-16 | lucasmafaldo | 3 | Wrong | [Brazil's next president will be] Lula |
187791 | 2017-11-25 | 2027-11-25 | Laudano | 1 | | [If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] If ex-president and capo mafioso gangster Lula and the permanent political class he bribed goes unpunished in 2018, there's a big chance Brazil will plunge into chaos and balkanize herself in the next ten years. |
187792 | 2017-11-25 | 2027-11-25 | Laudano | 2 | | [If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] A junta will take over after a military coup. |
187793 | 2017-11-25 | 2027-11-25 | Laudano | 2 | | [If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia. |
187794 | 2017-11-25 | 2018-10-29 | Laudano | 4 | Right | [ Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro or someone who espouses his law and order/anti-establishment platform |
187795 | 2017-11-25 | 2018-10-29 | Laudano | 1 | Wrong | [ Brazil's next president will be] A yet unknown outsider (Huck, Joaquim Barbosa, Meirelles, Doctor Rey, or other clown) |
187796 | 2017-11-25 | 2018-10-29 | Laudano | 1 | Right | [ Brazil's next president will be] A permanent political class shill (Alckmin, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Alvaro Dias, Joao Doria, other crooks) |
187797 | 2017-11-25 | 2018-10-29 | Laudano | 1 | Wrong | [ Brazil's next president will be] A conservative like Ronaldo Caiado or Joao Amoedo |
187798 | 2017-11-25 | 2017-12-26 | crabman | 1 | Right | Kahneman (or whoever controls his email) will give an actual response to the question I sent him via an email |
187807 | 2017-11-27 | 2025-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. |
187808 | 2017-11-27 | 2023-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | | BFR to launch before 2022. |
187809 | 2017-11-27 | 2017-12-15 | JoshuaZ | 10 | Wrong | Roy Moore to win senate special election |
187853 | 2017-11-30 | 2017-12-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | CarMax extended warranty doesn’t cover battery for electric cars |
187854 | 2017-11-30 | 2022-11-30 | Adam Zerner | 1 | | Our Ford Focus battery lasts 100,000 miles |
187855 | 2017-11-30 | 2020-12-04 | Adam Zerner | 4 | | Next term there will be a democratic president in America |
187856 | 2017-11-30 | 2017-12-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | There are mechanics in Las Vegas for electric cars |
187857 | 2017-11-30 | 2017-12-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | CarMax doesn’t negotiate is a better price |
187903 | 2017-12-03 | 2017-12-10 | owenshen24 | 1 | | [Crypto predictions:] Raiden Network will go up from $3.63 |
187904 | 2017-12-03 | 2017-12-10 | owenshen24 | 1 | | [Crypto predictions:] Stellar will go up from $0.9 |
187907 | 2017-12-03 | 2017-12-31 | Leohmarruda | 11 | Wrong | Btc below 7k USD before 2018 |
187910 | 2017-12-04 | 2018-01-01 | RobertLumley | 1 | Wrong | Les Miles will be named head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers |
187911 | 2017-12-04 | 2017-12-04 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | The answer is "semantics" |
187936 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | get mail from pa |
187937 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | party l |
187938 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | party A |
187939 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | party c |
187940 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | party j |
187941 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | print la |
187942 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | print j/a |
187943 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | print j/a 2 |
187944 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | print lu |
187945 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | print n |
187946 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | print a |
187947 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | print m |
187948 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | a thinks astro legit |
187949 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | La at least 2 prints |
187950 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-26 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Withdrawn | ... says she is as open with me, as she is with most other people. |
187951 | 2017-12-05 | 2018-01-01 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | et po >= 15 ka before next year |
187952 | 2017-12-05 | 2018-02-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | Sc will be blegh |
187953 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-05 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | et shows mind change |
187954 | 2017-12-05 | 2019-01-01 | ZeitPolizei | 2 | Withdrawn | By end of 2018 I will conclude (by object level reasoning), that AI safety is most important cause area |
187955 | 2017-12-05 | 2017-12-19 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Wrong | c has a crafts group |
187960 | 2017-12-05 | 2018-01-16 | ZeitPolizei | 1 | Right | we will get a gym slot (at least 3 times before march) |
188003 | 2017-12-06 | 2020-01-01 | HonoreDB | 13 | Wrong | Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. |
188212 | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-24 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [German government formation, 2017:] Coalition talks still ongoing |
188213 | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-24 | Bruno Parga | 4 | Wrong | [German government formation, 2017:] A new election is called |
188214 | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-24 | Bruno Parga | 4 | Right | [German government formation, 2017:] Grand coalition - Union/SPD |
188215 | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-24 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [German government formation, 2017:] "German flag" coalition - Union/SPD/FDP (includes minority gov't) |
188216 | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-24 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [German government formation, 2017:] "Jamaica" coalition - Union/FDP/Greens |
188217 | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-24 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [German government formation, 2017:] Minority government; Left and AfD in opposition |
188218 | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-24 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [German government formation, 2017:] Any government with any form of support from Left or AfD |
188219 | 2017-12-14 | 2017-12-14 | c0rw11 | 2 | Right | c0rw1n "there are >= 10k universities in the US" |
188264 | 2017-12-18 | 2018-03-31 | taryneast | 1 | Right | My baby will be crawling by his first birthday |
188276 | 2017-12-19 | 2018-01-04 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal - I reach the 12GB data allowance on my phone before I return home from travel, such that I buy more or curtail my usage. |
188341 | 2017-12-21 | 2018-01-01 | ccokeefe | 5 | Wrong | President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/17. |
188342 | 2017-12-21 | 2019-01-01 | ccokeefe | 7 | Wrong | President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 |
188343 | 2017-12-21 | 2020-10-01 | ccokeefe | 11 | Right | Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 |
188344 | 2017-12-21 | 2020-11-15 | ccokeefe | 4 | | Trump will win the Presidency in 2020 |
188345 | 2017-12-21 | 2018-01-01 | ccokeefe | 3 | Right | Hillary Clinton will not face federal charges by the end of 2017. |
188346 | 2017-12-21 | 2018-01-01 | ccokeefe | 1 | Right | Nancy Pelosi will be Democratic Leader on 12/31/17. |
188347 | 2017-12-21 | 2018-04-01 | ccokeefe | 2 | Right | Al Franken will not be a US Senator on 3/31/18. |
188348 | 2017-12-21 | 2019-02-01 | ccokeefe | 3 | Right | The Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms. |
188349 | 2017-12-21 | 2019-01-01 | ccokeefe | 18 | Right | Trump will be President on 12/31/18 |
188350 | 2017-12-21 | 2020-09-01 | ccokeefe | 13 | | Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination |
188351 | 2017-12-21 | 2019-01-04 | ccokeefe | 4 | Wrong | The GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms. |
188357 | 2017-12-21 | 2018-02-01 | ccokeefe | 1 | Right | At least one of the four coordinated EA charities (GD, AMF, FHI, THL) receives a Project for Awesome grant. |
188373 | 2017-12-21 | 2019-01-01 | ccokeefe | 2 | Right | Pineapple Fund donation to (another, not including SENS) widely-recognized EA charity by 1/1/19 |
188397 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2018 |
188398 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2019 |
188399 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2019 |
188400 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2020 |
188401 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2020 |
188402 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2021 |
188403 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2021 |
188404 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2022 |
188405 | 2017-12-23 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2022 |
188406 | 2017-12-24 | 2018-12-28 | ambisinister | 1 | Wrong | Ari Paul's $50k strike Bitcoin calls will expire in the money |
188407 | 2017-12-24 | 2018-12-31 | ambisinister | 2 | Right | [SSBM] UCF will not be used at The Big House 8, Evo 2018, GENESIS 5, or any tournament with over 1750 entrants in 2018 |
188416 | 2017-12-26 | 2019-11-08 | gallerdude | 1 | Wrong | Christopher Nolan directs Bond 25 |
188442 | 2017-12-30 | 2020-01-01 | Ardenlk | 4 | Right | VR technology will be available to middle-class consumers for home entertainment use by 2020 |
188443 | 2017-12-30 | 2018-01-30 | Enzar | 1 | Right | I think that I will still be using this site in a month. That is, I will have made at least two more serious predictions in the next month. |
188460 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-02-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech - Digital Combat Simulator World 2.5 is released before the end of January 2018 |
188461 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-12-15 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Right | Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf to win the Ibrahim Prize |
188482 | 2018-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | ccokeefe | 2 | Right | Trump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538. |
188503 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-02-01 | ccokeefe | 3 | Wrong | [Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30% |
188504 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-02-01 | ccokeefe | 4 | Wrong | [Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35% |
188505 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-02-01 | ccokeefe | 6 | Wrong | [Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5% |
188506 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-02-01 | ccokeefe | 6 | Right | [Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% |
188507 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-02-01 | ccokeefe | 5 | Wrong | [Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1% |
188508 | 2018-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | ccokeefe | 6 | Wrong | North Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018 |
188509 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-11-07 | ccokeefe | 2 | Right | Debbie Stabenow to win MI Senate seat in 2018 |
188512 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-03-01 | Nve | 9 | Wrong | In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH |
188513 | 2018-01-01 | 2018-04-01 | Nve | 4 | Wrong | Bitcoin would have hit an ATH in the last ~38 days |
188528 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-11-18 | ccokeefe | 1 | Wrong | [The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Republican |
188529 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-11-18 | ccokeefe | 1 | Right | [The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Bill Schuette as the Republican nominee |
188530 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-11-18 | ccokeefe | 2 | Right | [The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee |
188531 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-11-07 | ccokeefe | 1 | Right | Voters Not Politicians anti-gerrymandering MI constitutional amendment will be approved via ballot initiative on election day 2018 |
188532 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-12-31 | ccokeefe | 6 | Right | [The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II |
188533 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-12-31 | ccokeefe | 4 | Wrong | [The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Charles |
188534 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-04-01 | ioannes | 15 | Wrong | Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 |
188535 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-06-30 | imaxwell | 2 | Right | My relationship with L. will still be ongoing as of the end of June 2018 |
188536 | 2018-01-02 | 2018-12-31 | imaxwell | 1 | | I will not change employers in the year 2018 |
188573 | 2018-01-03 | 2018-01-04 | ccokeefe | 1 | Right | All HLS classes canceled 1/4 |
188687 | 2018-01-08 | 2018-01-08 | Lissy | 2 | Right | Saints will win the Wild Card playoff game against the Panthers. |
188688 | 2018-01-08 | 2018-01-09 | bobpage | 1 | Right | I will not do any real computer work for more than an hour tomorrow |
188721 | 2018-01-09 | 2019-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2018 |
188722 | 2018-01-09 | 2018-07-28 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | E and I will break up before planned holiday together in July |
188723 | 2018-01-09 | 2019-01-01 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | Still in a relationship with E by end of 2018 |
188724 | 2018-01-09 | 2019-01-01 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | I will drop out of my PhD in 2018 |
188725 | 2018-01-09 | 2019-01-01 | splorridge | 8 | Right | Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 |
188763 | 2018-01-11 | 2018-07-01 | Bruno Parga | 4 | Right | I have exercised 100 days this year. |
188764 | 2018-01-11 | 2018-10-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Right | I have exercised 150 days this year. |
188765 | 2018-01-11 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Right | I have exercised 200 days this year. |
188766 | 2018-01-11 | 2050-01-01 | volis | 6 | | At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 |
188769 | 2018-01-12 | 2019-12-31 | dchristie | 9 | Wrong | Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. |
188770 | 2018-01-12 | 2019-01-01 | Temeraire | 5 | Right | Congress will not extend copyright durations in 2018. |
188806 | 2018-01-15 | 2018-12-01 | peter_hurford | 2 | Right | The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 Midterm elections |
188807 | 2018-01-15 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | The US government undergoes a "government shutdown" for at least 24 hours in 2018 |
188808 | 2018-01-15 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 11 | Right | The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). |
188809 | 2018-01-15 | 2018-12-01 | peter_hurford | 3 | Wrong | The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections |
188810 | 2018-01-15 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 2 | Wrong | Jared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018 |
188811 | 2018-01-15 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 3 | Wrong | The US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018 |
188812 | 2018-01-15 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 10 | Wrong | Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 |
189087 | 2018-01-25 | 2030-01-01 | Bacon1001 | 8 | | I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 |
189088 | 2018-01-25 | 2018-01-25 | Bacon1001 | 1 | Right | The Shanghai Draons will lose to the Seoul Dynasty in todays OWL game. |
189091 | 2018-01-25 | 2018-08-19 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | OneWeb's initial 10 satellites will launch later than their currently announced date of 19th August 2018. |
189092 | 2018-01-25 | 2018-12-31 | Athrithalix | 3 | Wrong | A commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018. |
189141 | 2018-01-31 | 2019-01-01 | workbean | 1 | Withdrawn | Amazon will choose either Northern Virginia or Dallas as their HQ2 (retran) |
189142 | 2018-01-31 | 2018-12-31 | retran | 1 | Right | Amazon will choose either Northern Virginia or Dallas as their HQ2 |
189143 | 2018-01-31 | 2018-06-30 | leo_grint | 5 | Right | Luna (dating on blockchain) is not a scam. |
189144 | 2018-01-31 | 2019-07-02 | leo_grint | 1 | | Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 40 000 registered users by the end of 2018 |
189145 | 2018-01-31 | 2019-07-02 | leo_grint | 2 | Wrong | Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 200 000 users (created accounts) by the end of 2018 |
189264 | 2018-02-05 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 2 | Wrong | Cardano (ADA) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 |
189265 | 2018-02-05 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 2 | Wrong | NEO is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 |
189266 | 2018-02-05 | 2019-01-01 | peter_hurford | 1 | Wrong | Stellar (XLM) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 |
189267 | 2018-02-05 | 2018-04-01 | hara | 1 | Wrong | SoftBank (SFTBY)'s market cap will cross $100B this FY , before 31st Mar 2018 |
189271 | 2018-02-05 | 2018-02-12 | HonoreDB | 1 | Right | [Star Trek: Disco] Gur svanyr qrcvpgf gur jne raqvat va n znaare vzcyvrq gb yrnq vagb gur gvzryvar jr frr va gur bevtvany frevrf, jvgu ab gvzr geniry be nygreangr havirefrf. |
189272 | 2018-02-05 | 2020-01-01 | HonoreDB | 1 | | [Star Trek: Disco] Nfvqr sebz gur zlpryvny argjbex, gur grpu orvat zber nqinaprq guna va gur bevtvany frevrf vf arire rkcynvarq. |
189273 | 2018-02-05 | 2020-01-01 | HonoreDB | 1 | | [Star Trek: Disco] Ybepn'f fbhy fheivirf jvguva gur argjbex. |
189274 | 2018-02-05 | 2020-01-01 | HonoreDB | 1 | | [Star Trek: Disco] Ng yrnfg bar perjzrzore bs zveebe qvfpbirel vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir va bhe havirefr. |
189275 | 2018-02-05 | 2020-01-01 | HonoreDB | 1 | | [Star Trek: Disco] Bhe havirefr'f Ybepn vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir. |
189284 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Right | Democrats take control of the House in midterms. |
189285 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms. |
189286 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Wrong | Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him). |
189287 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | Mueller does not indict Trump. |
189288 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-02 | Jayson Virissimo | 10 | Wrong | PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. |
189289 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Right | PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year. |
189290 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Wrong | Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed. |
189291 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 4 | Right | No major health-care reform legislation gets passed. |
189292 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 3 | Right | No large-scale deportation of Dreamers. |
189293 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 2 | Right | US government shuts down again sometime in 2018. |
189294 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 7 | Right | Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. |
189295 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | Wrong | Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year |
189296 | 2018-02-06 | 2019-01-01 | Jayson Virissimo | 6 | Wrong | GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. |
189301 | 2018-02-07 | 2018-12-31 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | Two more Falcon Heavy launches in 2018. |
189314 | 2018-02-10 | 2018-04-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Politics, UK - The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018. |
189315 | 2018-02-10 | 2018-03-11 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, UK - A power-sharing executive is established in Stormont by the end of the 10th of March 2018. |
189316 | 2018-02-10 | 2018-03-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics, US - John Kelly is White House Chief of Staff through the end of February 2018. |
189317 | 2018-02-10 | 2018-06-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, Venezuela - Nicolas Maduro announced as winner of the 2018 presidential elections. |
189318 | 2018-02-10 | 2018-03-05 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, US - Deal struck before 5th of March 2018 that curbs family reunification and provides "Dreamers" with protection from deportation or a path to such. |
189324 | 2018-02-12 | 2018-09-20 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | I will attend Albion 3. |
189325 | 2018-02-12 | 2018-10-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | | Star-ALE will not participate in the Tokyo Olympics opening ceremony. |
189361 | 2018-02-13 | 2019-04-01 | Nve | 1 | Wrong | India's 2019 General Elections will be held before April 2019 |
189362 | 2018-02-13 | 2019-06-01 | Nve | 1 | Wrong | India's General Election for 2019 will take place after May 2019 |
189363 | 2018-02-13 | 2019-12-01 | Nve | 1 | Right | The NDA will win the India's 2019 General Elections |
189375 | 2018-02-14 | 2018-06-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Rocket Lab's next launch to be called "Business Time" |
189376 | 2018-02-14 | 2018-12-31 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Fewer small satellites (<500kg) launched in 2018 than 2017. |
189379 | 2018-02-15 | 2019-01-01 | daedalus_21 | 12 | Wrong | Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD |
189384 | 2018-02-15 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Wrong | HLSGives generates 30 career 1FTW pledges |
189392 | 2018-02-17 | 2018-02-17 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | RK will attend dinner tonight |
189393 | 2018-02-17 | 2018-02-17 | peter_hurford | 1 | Wrong | JF will attend dinner tonight |
189437 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-04-01 | ccokeefe | 1 | Wrong | [Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 2 |
189438 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-04-01 | ccokeefe | 1 | Right | [Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 3 |
189439 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-04-01 | ccokeefe | 1 | Wrong | [Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 4 |
189440 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-04-01 | ccokeefe | 1 | Wrong | [Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] ≥5 |
189454 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 25 |
189455 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 1 |
189456 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 8 |
189457 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 15 |
189458 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 22 |
189459 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 29 |
189460 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 6 |
189461 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 13 |
189462 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-06-04 | Bruno Parga | 4 | Wrong | [I will have finished the deep learning course by] June 3 |
189463 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-12-31 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | WFIRST is not completely cancelled in 2018. |
189464 | 2018-02-20 | 2019-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | Wrong | A second Falcon Heavy launch by the end of 2018 |
189479 | 2018-02-22 | 2018-02-23 | pkfalu92 | 1 | | 000000 takes longer than 3 hours to complete |
189480 | 2018-02-22 | 2018-02-23 | pkfalu92 | 1 | Right | 000001 completed 22Feb18 |
189481 | 2018-02-22 | 2018-02-23 | pkfalu92 | 1 | Wrong | 000001 takes longer than 1 hour |
189482 | 2018-02-22 | 2018-02-23 | pkfalu92 | 1 | Wrong | 000002 completed 22Feb18 |
189483 | 2018-02-22 | 2018-02-23 | pkfalu92 | 1 | Wrong | I finish 000003 22Feb18 |
189484 | 2018-02-22 | 2018-02-23 | pkfalu92 | 1 | Right | complete 000004 22Feb18 |
189498 | 2018-02-23 | 2018-09-21 | taryneast | 2 | Right | My baby will be walking independently by age 18 months |
189499 | 2018-02-23 | 2018-03-21 | taryneast | 2 | Wrong | My baby will be walking independently by age 12 months |
189500 | 2018-02-23 | 2018-05-21 | taryneast | 1 | Right | My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 14 months |
189501 | 2018-02-23 | 2018-07-21 | taryneast | 1 | Right | My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 16 months |
189531 | 2018-02-26 | 2018-03-02 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | We will vote to watch Redline on Friday. |
189532 | 2018-02-26 | 2019-02-01 | Anidrania | 6 | Wrong | The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. |
189533 | 2018-02-26 | 2021-01-01 | viissataa | 1 | | In it's Fighter X program to replace a fleet of Boeing F-18 fighters with modern aicraft, Finland will choose to purchase an amount of 50-70 JAS Gripen-E fighters from Saab, augmented by 5-10 F35 jets on a lease deal to reduce operating costs. |
189534 | 2018-02-26 | 2020-11-03 | iCrown | 5 | | Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. |
189535 | 2018-02-27 | 2018-03-27 | enolan | 3 | Wrong | One or more of Cipriani et al will respond to Scott Alexander's article on their new paper |
189598 | 2018-03-03 | 2019-01-08 | Finma | 13 | Wrong | Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 |
189599 | 2018-03-04 | 2018-04-01 | dchristie | 4 | Right | The Facebook group, 'Effective Egoism', will have between 100 to 190 members by March 31st 11:59 pm Pacific timezone. |
189607 | 2018-03-05 | 2018-03-09 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | My teeth will require major scraping at the dentist on Friday. |
189608 | 2018-03-05 | 2018-03-09 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | I will have to schedule another appointment for further treatment following my dentist appointment this Friday. |
189609 | 2018-03-05 | 2018-03-09 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | My vision will have further deteriorated, as judged by my optician. |
189610 | 2018-03-05 | 2018-03-09 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | I will require new glasses. |
189646 | 2018-03-08 | 2018-03-09 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | I will have a haircut on Friday. |
189647 | 2018-03-08 | 2018-03-09 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | I will have a haircut on Friday and be pleased with the result. |
189665 | 2018-03-09 | 2018-03-09 | bmalcolmson | 2 | Wrong | I won't make an accurate prediction |
189666 | 2018-03-09 | 2018-04-30 | pvoberstein | 4 | Wrong | Donald Trump will have a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-un "by May". |
189670 | 2018-03-11 | 2018-04-09 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - Spokesperson for UK government department states that their official view is that the Russian government was likely involved in attack on former spy by end of 2018-04-08. |
189671 | 2018-03-11 | 2018-05-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech - Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the bottom-end of the price range is greater than $10,000. |
189672 | 2018-03-11 | 2018-05-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech - Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the top-end of the price range is greater than $10,000. |
189673 | 2018-03-12 | 2018-04-10 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, UK - It is alleged by a government official that a significant possibility exists that the man restrained by police who later died in Lewisham on 2018-03-09 was subject to excessive force before the end of the 9th of April 2018. |
189674 | 2018-03-12 | 2018-08-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Vector to delay their first commercial launch past end of July. |
189750 | 2018-03-13 | 2018-03-16 | OperaPhantom | 1 | | I can trust my amore. |
189751 | 2018-03-13 | 2018-03-16 | OperaPhantom | 1 | | Effective assistance will not be granted in time or at all. |
189788 | 2018-03-14 | 2018-03-19 | fkovacs | 3 | Wrong | UK will expel Russia's ambassador by 18 March 2018. |
189819 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ganondorf |
189820 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Jigglypuff |
189821 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Zelda |
189822 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Kirby |
189823 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] King Dedede |
189824 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Dr Mario |
189825 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ike |
189826 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Falco |
189827 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Samus |
189828 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Link |
189829 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Sheik |
189830 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Inkling |
189831 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Captain Falcon |
189832 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Bowser |
189833 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Donkey Kong |
189834 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Fox |
189835 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Diddy Kong |
189836 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Rob |
189837 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Marth |
189838 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Mewtwo |
189839 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Ryu |
189840 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Bayonetta |
189841 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Cloud |
189842 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Pacman |
189843 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Duck Hunt Duo |
189844 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 2 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Wii Fit Trainer |
189845 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 2 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Dark Pit |
189846 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Robin |
189847 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Lucina |
189848 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Baby Bowser |
189849 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 2 | Wrong | [The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Charizard |
189850 | 2018-03-16 | 2020-06-16 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Another character from the Metroid series will be added in Smash for Switch either on release or within 18 months of release. |
189851 | 2018-03-16 | 2020-06-16 | Athrithalix | 4 | | Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release. |
189852 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Wrong | Another Smash Ballot will be announced in 2018. |
189853 | 2018-03-16 | 2020-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | | Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019. |
189854 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 2 | Right | There will be no Smash Tour minigame in Smash for Switch. |
189855 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | There will be a story mode in Smash for Switch. |
189856 | 2018-03-16 | 2020-06-16 | Athrithalix | 2 | Right | Smash for switch will support the use of Gamecube controllers, either on release or within 18 months of release. |
189857 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | Athrithalix | 1 | Right | Smash for Switch will support 8-player smash. |
189858 | 2018-03-16 | 2018-03-17 | Athrithalix | 1 | Withdrawn | C will rate Perfect Blue lower than 8 |
189859 | 2018-03-16 | 2018-03-17 | Athrithalix | 1 | Withdrawn | C will rate Perfect Blue lower than 7 |
189860 | 2018-03-16 | 2018-03-19 | zvory | 1 | Withdrawn | I will not be sick by monday morning |
189861 | 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 6 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal |
189902 | 2018-03-21 | 2028-03-21 | Ben Doherty | 8 | | "Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years" |
189905 | 2018-03-22 | 2018-03-22 | crabman | 1 | Wrong | I will not cancel psychotherapy session because of illness |
189906 | 2018-03-22 | 2019-03-22 | Athrithalix | 3 | Wrong | Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years. |
189907 | 2018-03-22 | 2018-03-23 | crabman | 1 | Right | If I end up using my Gruzovichkoff order on 2018-03-23, I will pay for 3+ hours of loader's work |
189908 | 2018-03-22 | 2018-04-01 | Athrithalix | 3 | Wrong | Electron rocket to launch before the end of March. |
189934 | 2018-03-23 | 2018-04-20 | zvory | 1 | Wrong | I will get anxiety/stress severe enough while studying that I scratch my hands until they bleed |
189947 | 2018-03-23 | 2019-10-01 | enolan | 1 | Wrong | Games Workers Unite will be generally considered a failure on October 1st 2019 |
189948 | 2018-03-23 | 2018-06-23 | enolan | 3 | Right | I will still be using NixOS in three months |
189949 | 2018-03-24 | 2018-07-24 | pkfalu92 | 8 | Wrong | Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. |
189973 | 2018-03-26 | 2018-12-31 | dakyne | 5 | Wrong | US National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018. |
189974 | 2018-03-26 | 2018-04-03 | dakyne | 1 | Right | Villanova will win the 2018 NCAA national championship |
189986 | 2018-03-26 | 2018-04-02 | zvory | 1 | Right | Desi will not send any messages at all to me |
190023 | 2018-03-29 | 2018-05-01 | Athrithalix | 3 | Right | TESS will launch before the end of April (there will be no further major delays to its launch). |
190027 | 2018-03-29 | 2020-03-29 | Athrithalix | 2 | | I will still be using Prediction Book in 2 year's time. |
190028 | 2018-03-29 | 2021-03-29 | Athrithalix | 1 | | I will still be using Prediction Book in 3 year's time. |
190029 | 2018-03-29 | 2022-03-29 | Athrithalix | 1 | | I will still be using Prediction Book in 4 year's time. |
190030 | 2018-03-29 | 2023-03-29 | Athrithalix | 1 | | I will still be using Prediction Book in 5 year's time. |
190031 | 2018-03-29 | 2018-03-30 | bastak | 1 | | hui |
190132 | 2018-04-08 | 2018-05-06 | shardo | 1 | Withdrawn | I'll win a game against Manas in FIFA 18 by the end of this semester |
190138 | 2018-04-08 | 2018-05-15 | phistr | 1 | Wrong | French rail strike will end before 15th May in favour of the government. |
190139 | 2018-04-08 | 2022-06-30 | phistr | 3 | | Macron will not be re-elected as French President. |
190147 | 2018-04-08 | 2018-05-08 | enolan | 1 | Wrong | I'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in one month |
190148 | 2018-04-08 | 2018-07-08 | enolan | 2 | Wrong | I'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in 3 months |
190155 | 2018-04-10 | 2023-10-10 | notsonewuser | 2 | | Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. |
190156 | 2018-04-10 | 2023-10-10 | notsonewuser | 2 | | I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. |
190301 | 2018-04-16 | 2018-12-31 | Athrithalix | 3 | Wrong | Cyber attack on UK with Russia clearly identified as culprit in 2018, described as retaliation for Syria bombing. |
190344 | 2018-04-17 | 2018-08-16 | davatk | 1 | Wrong | [For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Boston. |
190345 | 2018-04-17 | 2018-08-16 | davatk | 1 | Wrong | [For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Denver/Boulder. |
190346 | 2018-04-17 | 2019-01-01 | davatk | 7 | Right | Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. |
190347 | 2018-04-17 | 2020-09-16 | davatk | 8 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders |
190348 | 2018-04-17 | 2020-09-16 | davatk | 6 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton |
190349 | 2018-04-17 | 2020-09-16 | davatk | 9 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris |
190350 | 2018-04-17 | 2020-09-16 | davatk | 7 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker |
190351 | 2018-04-17 | 2020-09-16 | davatk | 9 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden |
190352 | 2018-04-17 | 2018-05-10 | davatk | 1 | Wrong | The Wizards will beat the Raptors. |
190353 | 2018-04-17 | 2018-12-16 | davatk | 3 | Wrong | Republicans will win the house in 2018. |
190457 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Stoke wins |
190458 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Atletico Madrid wins |
190459 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Las Palmas and Alaves draw |
190460 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Fluminense wins |
190461 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Chapecoense and Vasco draw |
190462 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Aves does not lose |
190463 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Nice wins |
190464 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Schalke wins |
190465 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Augsburg wins |
190466 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Manchester City wins |
190467 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Paris SG does not win |
190468 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Saint Etienne wins |
190469 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Chaves wins |
190470 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Palmeiras does not lose |
190471 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | CSKA wins |
190472 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | Udinese wins |
190473 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | Internazionale wins |
190474 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | Atalanta Torino draw |
190480 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Juventus wins |
190481 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] São Paulo FC beats Ceará |
190482 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-22 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Sunday football matches results] Atlético MG beats Vitória |
190483 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-23 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Sunday football matches results] Grêmio beats Atlético PR |
190484 | 2018-04-22 | 2018-04-25 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Sunday football matches results] Botafogo does not lose to Sport Recife |
190517 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-23 | Athrithalix | 1 | Withdrawn | I will best W at table football this lunchtime. |
190518 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-23 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Monday football matches results] Genoa beats Hellas Verona |
190519 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-23 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Monday football matches results] Athletic Bilbao beats Levante |
190520 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-23 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Monday football matches results] Everton beats Newcastle |
190521 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-23 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | FC Porto beats Vitória Setúbal |
190522 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-23 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | Fenerbahçe beats Antalyaspor |
190523 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-23 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Monday football matches results] Spartak beats Akhmat |
190524 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Palmeiras beats Chapecoense |
190525 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Botafogo beats Grêmio |
190526 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Fluminense does not lose to São Paulo FC |
190527 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] América Mineiro does not lose to Vitória |
190528 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Atlético PR does not lose to Bahia |
190529 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Sport Recife does not lose to Paraná |
190530 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Atlético MG beats Corinthians |
190531 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-02 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Ceará does not lose to Flamengo |
190532 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Roma beats Chievo |
190533 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Juventus does not lose to Internazionale |
190534 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Udinese beats Benevento |
190535 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] AC Milan beats Bologna |
190536 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Sampdoria beats Cagliari |
190537 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Crotone beats Sassuolo |
190538 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 2 | Wrong | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Hellas Verona does not lose to SPAL 2013 |
190539 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Genoa does not lose to Atalanta |
190540 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Torino does not lose to Lazio |
190541 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Fiorentina and Napoli draw |
190542 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 36] Liverpool beats Stoke City |
190543 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 36] Huddersfield Town and Everton draw |
190544 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 36] Newcastle beats West Bromwich |
190545 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 36] Southampton beats Bournemouth |
190546 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 36] Crystal Palace does not lose to Leicester City |
190547 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 36] Burnley beats Brighton & Hove Albion |
190548 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Premier League - Round 36] Chelsea beats Swansea |
190549 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 36] Manchester United does not lose to Arsenal |
190550 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 36] Manchester City beats West Ham |
190551 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Premier League - Round 36] Tottenham beats Watford |
190552 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Lyon beats Nantes |
190553 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Montpellier does not lose to Saint-Étienne |
190554 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 10 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Nice does not lose to Strasbourg |
190555 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Marseille beats Angers |
190556 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Monaco beats Amiens |
190557 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Troyes beats Caen |
190558 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Bordeaux beats Dijon |
190559 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Paris SG beats Guingamp |
190560 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Rennes does not lose to Toulouse |
190561 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 35] Lille and Metz draw |
190562 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Schalke 04 beats Borussia Mönchengladbach |
190563 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Hoffenheim beats Hannover 96 |
190564 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Hertha Berlin beats Augsburg |
190565 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Bayern Munich beats Eintracht Frankfurt |
190566 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 2 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 32] RB Leipzig does not lose to Mainz 05 |
190567 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Borussia Dortmund beats Werder Bremen |
190568 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Freiburg does not lose to FC Köln |
190569 | 2018-04-23 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 2 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Wolfsburg does not lose to Hamburger SV |
190580 | 2018-04-24 | 2021-01-01 | davatk | 1 | | The WMATA Silver line will run to Dulles by the end of 2020. |
190583 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-26 | davatk | 1 | Wrong | The Wizards will beat the Raptors in game 5. |
190588 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I do not become a card carrying democrat |
190589 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I do not become proficient at cooking for myself |
190590 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I do not start a blog or write regularly |
190591 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I read 12+ books this year |
190592 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I rent a place in Arizona |
190593 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-24 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | Thomas Monson dies |
190594 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 13 | Right | Trump is president at years end |
190595 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-24 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | Russel M Nelson succeeds Monson |
190596 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-05-18 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I will see Les Mis |
190597 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 6 | Wrong | Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump |
190598 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-24 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I do not live in my sisters spare bedroom for more than a month |
190599 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I switch away from iPhone |
190600 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-24 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I take at least one road trip of more than 10 hours one way |
190601 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I visit Mexico at least once |
190602 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 6 | Right | Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 |
190603 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 5 | Right | Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 |
190604 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I move east of the Mississippi in 2018 |
190605 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | There will be a 10+ fatality shooting |
190606 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 2 | Right | Trump does not get impeached in 2018 |
190607 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I hike antelope canyon |
190608 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I do not visit a foreign country for 7+ days |
190609 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I do not do any sort of work in a foreign country |
190610 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I do not travel to Asia, Europe, or South America |
190611 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I manage to climb a 5.11 wall at a rock climbing gym |
190612 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 3 | Right | Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault |
190613 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | Democrats obtain a majority in the house |
190614 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I do not do the Future Authoring program |
190615 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I have a consistent 3-month stint of exercise |
190616 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-24 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I get into UPenn |
190617 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I move to Pennsylvania |
190618 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I go to at least 2 music concerts |
190619 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I lose weight (current weight @ 170) |
190620 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-08-28 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I am unemployed for at least 1 month before grad school |
190621 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-24 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I get into one of the other grad programs I applied to (not UPenn) |
190622 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I read 24+ books this year |
190623 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 7 | Wrong | North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory |
190624 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-24 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | President Monson passes away before April conference |
190625 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-08-28 | JTPeterson | 1 | Right | I do not get a job doing pure research before grad school starts |
190626 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-12-31 | JTPeterson | 1 | Wrong | I go on an overnight hike |
190627 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 32] Bayer Leverkusen does not lose to Stuttgart |
190628 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 35] Sevilla does not lose to Levante |
190629 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 35] Espanyol beats Las Palmas |
190630 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 35] Real Sociedad does not lose to Athletic Bilbao |
190631 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 35] Real Madrid beats Leganés |
190632 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 35] Villareal does not lose to Celta de Vigo |
190633 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 35] Girona does not lose to Getafe |
190634 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [La Liga - Round 35] Atlético Madrid beats Alavés |
190635 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 35] Valencia beats Eibar |
190636 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 35] Barcelona beats Deportivo |
190637 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 35] Real Betis beats Málaga |
190638 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-25 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [UEFA Champions League - Semi-finals first legs] Liverpool does not lose to Roma |
190639 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-25 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [UEFA Champions League - Semi-finals first legs] Bayern Munich beats Real Madrid |
190640 | 2018-04-24 | 2018-04-25 | peter_hurford | 2 | Right | Debbie Lesko wins the April 2018 special election for Arizona's 8th District |
190659 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] River Plate beats Emelec |
190660 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Santa Fe does not lose to Flamengo |
190661 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Defensor Sporting beats Monagas SC |
190662 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Boca Juniors does not lose to Palmeiras |
190663 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Nacional beats Real Garcilaso |
190664 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Atlético Tucuman does not lose to The Strongest |
190665 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Cruzeiro does not lose to Universidad de Chile |
190666 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Vasco does not lose to Racing Club |
190667 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Peñarol beats Libertad |
190668 | 2018-04-25 | 2018-04-28 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Junior Barranquilla beats Alianza Lima |
190669 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Right | I will earn a P in Criminal Procedure |
190670 | 2018-04-26 | 2035-01-01 | livshitsrussia | 3 | | E-books won't displace paper |
190673 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 6 | Right | Politics, Columbia - FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 |
190674 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 7 | Right | Politics, Middle East - Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) |
190675 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 8 | Wrong | Politics, Middle East - Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. |
190676 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 6 | Wrong | Politics, Middle East - Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 |
190677 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 7 | Right | Politics, Libya - Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 |
190678 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 7 | Wrong | Technology - Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 |
190679 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 7 | Right | Technology - New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 |
190680 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Technology - A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying "something awful" causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 |
190681 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 16 | Wrong | Technology - The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. |
190682 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 12 | Right | Technology - Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 |
190683 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | EA - GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 |
190684 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | EA - GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation |
190685 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 7 | Right | EA - Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 |
190686 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | EA - Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 |
190687 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 8 | Wrong | EA - Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser |
190688 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | EA - Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 |
190689 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 9 | Wrong | Rationalist Community - Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 |
190690 | 2018-04-26 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 7 | Right | Rationalist Community - LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 |
190708 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-04-26 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Europa League - Semi-finals first leg] Marseille does not lose to Red Bull Salzburg |
190709 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-04-27 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Junior Barranquilla does not lose to Alianza Lima |
190710 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-04-28 | davatk | 1 | Wrong | The Wizards will win game 6 against the Raptors. |
190711 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-04-27 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Universidad Chile does not lose to Cruzeiro |
190712 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-04-27 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Cruzeiro does not lose to Universidad Chile |
190713 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-04-27 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Peñarol beats Libertad |
190714 | 2018-04-26 | 2018-04-27 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] River Plate does not lose to Emelec |
190789 | 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Belenenses does not lose to SC Braga |
190790 | 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Vitória de Setúbal beats Feirense |
190791 | 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Rio Ave does not lose to GD Chaves |
190792 | 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] FC Porto does not lose to Marítimo |
190793 | 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Estoril does not lose to Desportivo das Aves |
190794 | 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Vitória de Guimarães beats Moreirense |
190795 | 2018-04-27 | 2018-04-30 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Boavista beats Paços de Ferreira |
190796 | 2018-04-27 | 2019-05-30 | peter_hurford | 1 | Wrong | By the end of next year, the RP 2018-2019 Plan will be completed exactly as it is currently published with no significant revisions or changed deliverable dates |
190806 | 2018-04-29 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] FC Porto does not lose to Marítimo |
190807 | 2018-04-29 | 2018-04-29 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Italian Serie A - Round 35] Fiorentina does not lose to Napoli |
191025 | 2018-04-30 | 2018-04-30 | lukefreeman | 1 | Withdrawn | test |
191026 | 2018-04-30 | 2018-04-30 | lukefreeman | 1 | Withdrawn | test |
191032 | 2018-04-30 | 2018-05-01 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Italian Serie B - Round 39] Palermo does not lose to Bari |
191054 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-15 | davatk | 1 | Wrong | [In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Philadelphia will beat Boston. |
191055 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-15 | davatk | 1 | Right | [In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Houston will beat Utah. |
191056 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-15 | davatk | 1 | Right | [In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Golden State will beat New Orleans. |
191078 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-12-01 | davatk | 1 | Right | Joe Manchin will win his 2018 Senate race in West Virginia. |
191082 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-01 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Champions League – Semi-finals second leg] Bayern Munich does not lose to Real Madrid |
191083 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Grêmio beats Cerro Porteño |
191084 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Club Nacional (URU) beats Santos FC |
191085 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Real Garcilaso beats Estudiantes LP |
191086 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Atlético Tucumán does not lose to Peñarol |
191087 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Boca Juniors does not lose to Junior Barranquilla |
191088 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Corinthians beats Independiente |
191089 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Colo-Colo does not lose to Delfín SC |
191090 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Vasco da Gama beats Cruzeiro |
191091 | 2018-05-01 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Copa do Brasil - Eighth-finals first leg] Ponte Preta does not lose to Flamengo |
191116 | 2018-05-03 | 2018-07-16 | Athrithalix | 2 | Right | James Webb Space Telescope to breach its $8bn cost cap. |
191128 | 2018-05-03 | 2018-05-03 | musashimaru | 11 | Right | [Europa League - Semi-finals second leg] Atlético de Madrid does not lose to Arsenal |
191129 | 2018-05-03 | 2018-08-03 | dnti808 | 1 | Withdrawn | The Ebb sleep product will not be available to easily buy within the next 3 months. |
191132 | 2018-05-03 | 2018-05-04 | musashimaru | 5 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Racing Club does not lose to Universidad de Chile |
191133 | 2018-05-03 | 2018-05-04 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Libertad does not lose to The Strongest |
191134 | 2018-05-03 | 2018-05-04 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Santa Fe beats River Plate |
191135 | 2018-05-03 | 2018-05-04 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Palmeiras does not lose to Alianza Lima |
191155 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Right | I will get a P in Antitrust |
191156 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Wrong | I will get an H in Legal Profession |
191157 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Right | I will get an H* in Legal Profession |
191158 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Wrong | I will LP Antitrust |
191159 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Wrong | I will H Criminal Procedure |
191160 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 2 | Withdrawn | I will H Corporations |
191161 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Wrong | I will H Corporations |
191162 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-25 | Mjreard | 1 | Wrong | I will H Antitrust |
191163 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 36] Paris SG beats Amiens |
191164 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 36] AS Saint-Étienne beats FCG Bordeaux |
191165 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 36] Olympique Lyon beats Troyes AC |
191166 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 36] Dijon FCO does not lose to EA Guingamp |
191167 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-04 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 37] Manchester United beats Brighton & Hove Albion |
191170 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 2 | Withdrawn | [Primeira Liga - Round 33] SC Braga beats Boavista by 1.5+ goals |
191171 | 2018-05-04 | 2018-05-04 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Primeira Liga - Round 33] SC Braga beats Boavista by 1.5+ goals |
191172 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Argentine Primera ] San Lorenzo does not lose to Belgrano |
191173 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | Sarfield lost |
191174 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 37] Stoke City beats Crystal Palace |
191175 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 37] Watford does not lose to Newcastle |
191176 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 37] Leicester City beats West Ham |
191177 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 37] Tottenham beats West Bromwich |
191178 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 37] Bournemouth does not lose to Swansea |
191179 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 37] Everton beats Southampton |
191180 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Round 37] Manchester City beats Huddersfield Town |
191181 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 37] Chelsea does not lose to Liverpool |
191182 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 37] Arsenal beats Burnley |
191183 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 36] Girona and Eibar draw |
191184 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 36] Athletic Bilbao does not lose to Real Betis |
191185 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 36] Celta Vigo beats Deportivo |
191186 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 36] Villareal beats Valencia |
191187 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [La Liga - Round 36] Alavés does not lose to Málaga |
191188 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [La Liga - Round 36] Getafe does not lose to Las Palmas |
191189 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 2 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 36] Barcelona beats Real Madrid |
191190 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 36] Leganés beats Levante |
191191 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Bayen Munich beats FC Köln |
191192 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Borussia Dortmund beats Mainz 05 |
191193 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 33] RB Leipzig beats Wolfsburg |
191194 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Borussia Mönchengladbach beats Freiburg |
191195 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Schalke 04 beats Augsburg |
191196 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Hannover 96 and Hertha Berlin draw |
191197 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Werder Bremen does not lose to Bayer Leverkusen |
191198 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Stuttgart beats Hoffenheim |
191199 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 33] Eintracth Frankfurt beats Hamburger SV |
191200 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Russian Premier League] Spartak Moscow beats Rostov |
191203 | 2018-05-05 | 2018-05-05 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Italian Serie A - Round 36] Juventus beats Bologna |
191207 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. |
191208 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | The US yield curve will invert in 2018, i.e., the 10y yield will fall below the 1y yield. |
191209 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. |
191210 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | I will read 100 books in 2018. |
191211 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-13 | Cato | 1 | Right | Nunes will beat Pennington at UFC 224. |
191212 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | OMX Tallinn will stay above 1000 for 2018. |
191213 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | Brent crude will reach $100 in 2018. |
191214 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | Cocoa will reach $3000/ton in 2018. |
191215 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | Saudi Aramco will have an IPO at a non-Saudi bourse in 2018. |
191216 | 2018-05-06 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | If Saudi Aramco has a 2018 foreign IPO, the company's implied valuation will be less than $2 trillion. |
191217 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 33] Sporting CP does not lose to SL Benfica |
191218 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Withdrawn | [Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Independiente beats Gimnasia LP |
191219 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Estudiantes LP does not lose to Racing Club |
191220 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Boca Juniors beats Unión Santa Fe |
191221 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-13 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | Donald Trump will renew the Iran deal on May 12. |
191222 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Serie A - Round 36] Chievo does not lose to Crotone |
191223 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Serie A - Round 36] Napoli beats Torino FC |
191224 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Serie A - Round 36] Lazio does not lose to Atalanta |
191225 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Serie A - Round 36] SPAL does not lose to Benevento |
191226 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Serie A - Round 36] Genoa does not lose to Fiorentina |
191227 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 36] Atlético Madrid beats Espanyol |
191228 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Süper Lig - Round 32] Fenerbahçe does not lose to Bursaspor |
191229 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Primeira Liga - Round 33] Moreirense does not lose to Desportivo Aves |
191230 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Primeira Liga - Round 33] Estoril beats Vitória Setúbal |
191231 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Metz beats Angers |
191232 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Toulouse beats Lille |
191233 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Monaco beats Caen |
191234 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Nantes and Montpellier draw |
191235 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Segunda Liga - Round 37] Sporting B does not lose to Guimarães B |
191236 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 36] Rennes does not lose to Strasbourg |
191239 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Segunda Liga - Round 37] Santa Clara beats Real SC |
191240 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Segunda Liga - Round 37] Oliveirense does not lose to Leixões |
191241 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Primeira Liga - Round 33] FC Porto does not lose to Feirense |
191251 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Serie A - Round 36] AS Roma does not lose to Cagliari |
191252 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 4] Palmeiras does not lose to Atlético PR |
191253 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 4] Flamengo beats Internacional |
191254 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 4] Cruzeiro does not lose to Botafogo |
191255 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Brasileirão - Round 4] Vitória does not lose to Fluminense |
191256 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-06 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 1 - Round 36] Marseille does not lose to Nice |
191257 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-10-16 | seriouslykernelwtf | 1 | | BH will fail to add himself to his "publicly visible wall of shame for a five year period" over breaking a rental agreement. |
191265 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 4] Sport Recife beats Bahia |
191266 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Liga MX - Clausura QF second leg ] Santos Laguna does not lose to Tigres |
191267 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] Santa Fe does not lose to Millonarios |
191268 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] America Cali does not lose to Deportivo La Equidad |
191269 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] Junior Barranquilla does not lose to Jaguares Córdoba |
191270 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] Atlético Nacional does not lose to Leones FC |
191271 | 2018-05-06 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Primera Chile - Round 12] Colo Colo does not lose to Everton Viña del Mar |
191275 | 2018-05-07 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga 2 - Round 38] Granada does not lose to Rayo Vallecano |
191276 | 2018-05-07 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Semi-final first leg] Dundee United beats Livingston |
191277 | 2018-05-07 | 2018-05-07 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Primeira Liga - Round 33] Paços de Ferreira does not lose to Rio Ave |
191278 | 2018-05-07 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Banfield beats Chacarita |
191279 | 2018-05-07 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Superliga Argentina - Round 26] River Plate does not lose to Colón |
191280 | 2018-05-07 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Serie A Ecuador - Round 12 ] El Nacional beats Técnico Universitario |
191281 | 2018-05-07 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Brasileirão - Round 4] Chapecoense does not lose to Paraná |
191286 | 2018-05-08 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Aberdeen does not lose to Rangers |
191287 | 2018-05-08 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Motherwell does not lose to Partick Thistle |
191288 | 2018-05-08 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Hamilton beats St Johnstone |
191289 | 2018-05-08 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Ross County does not lose to Dundee FC |
191290 | 2018-05-08 | 2018-05-08 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Coupe de France - Final] Paris SG does not lose to Les Herbiers |
191295 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [La Liga - Round 34] Real Madrid does not lose to Sevilla |
191296 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Palmeiras does not lose to América Mineiro |
191297 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Bahia does not lose to Vasco da Gama |
191298 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Grêmio does not lose to Goiás |
191299 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Corinthians beats Vitória |
191300 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Flamengo does not lose to Ponte Preta |
191301 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Santos FC beats Luverdense |
191302 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 2 | Right | [Premier League - Delayed matches] Leicester City does not lose to Arsenal |
191303 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Premier League - Delayed matches] Chelsea beats Huddersfield Town |
191304 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Delayed matches] Tottenham beats Newcastle |
191305 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Delayed matches] Manchester City does not lose to Brighton |
191306 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Coppa Italia - Final] Juventus beats AC Milan |
191307 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Celtic beats Kilmarnock |
191308 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Hearts does not lose to Hibernian |
191309 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-09 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Superliga Argentina - Round 25] Racing Club does not lose to Arsenal Sarandí |
191310 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-10 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Sudamericana - First stage second leg] Temuco does not lose to Estudiante Mérida |
191311 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-10 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Sudamericana - First stage second leg] São Paulo FC beats Rosário Central |
191312 | 2018-05-09 | 2018-05-10 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Copa Sudamericana - First stage second leg] Botafogo does not lose to Audax Italiano |
191313 | 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-30 | davatk | 2 | Right | [In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Golden State will beat Houston. |
191314 | 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-30 | davatk | 2 | Right | [In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Cleveland will beat Boston. |
191315 | 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-10 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Torneo Intermedio Uruguay - Group A ] Nacional beats Fénix |
191316 | 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-10 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Superliga Argentina - Round 25] Boca Juniors does not lose to Gimnasia LP |
191319 | 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-10 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Premier League - Round 31] Manchester United does not lose to West Ham |
191322 | 2018-05-10 | 2035-12-31 | PlacidPlatypus | 9 | | Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. |
191335 | 2018-05-11 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Liga MX - Clausura SF first leg ] Club Tijuana does not lose to Deportivo Toluca |
191338 | 2018-05-11 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Semi-final second leg] Livingston does not lose to Dundee United |
191339 | 2018-05-11 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Primeira Liga - Round 34] Chaves does not lose to Desportivo das Aves |
191340 | 2018-05-11 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [EFL Championship - Promotion play-offs ] Fulham does not lose to Derby County |
191341 | 2018-05-11 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 2 - Round 38] RC Lens does not lose to AJ Auxerre |
191342 | 2018-05-11 | 2018-05-11 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Ligue 2 - Round 38] Nancy does not lose to US Orléans |
191347 | 2018-05-11 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019 |
191348 | 2018-05-11 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Before 1 January 2019, any additional EU member state schedules a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. |
191349 | 2018-05-11 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, Middle East - There is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019 |
191350 | 2018-05-11 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, China - There is a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019 |
191351 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - A bill restoring the DACA programme is voted on by the House of Representatives before the end of June 2018. |
191352 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-06-10 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Tech - Apple announces a system for developing applications working on both macOS and iOS at WWDC. |
191353 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-06-10 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Tech - Apple announces iOS 12 at WWDC. |
191354 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-06-10 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Tech - Apple announces multi-user FaceTime call support at WWDC in 2018. |
191355 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-06-10 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Tech - Apple announces sleep tracking support for watchOS at WWDC in 2018. |
191356 | 2018-05-12 | 2035-01-01 | playablecharacter | 3 | | Issa will get a PhD |
191357 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Bayer Leverkusen does not lose to Hannover 96 |
191358 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Hoffenheim does not lose to Borussia Dortmund |
191359 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Freiburg beats Augsburg |
191360 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Wolfsburg does not lose FC Köln |
191361 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Mainz 05 does not lose to Werder Bremen |
191362 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Hamburger SV does not lose to Borussia Mönchengladbach |
191363 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Schalke 04 does not lose Eintracht Frankfurt |
191364 | 2018-05-12 | 2018-05-12 | musashimaru | 1 | Wrong | [Bundesliga - Round 34] Bayern Munich does not lose to Stuttgart |
191365 | 2018-05-12 | 2020-09-01 | Tschescheier | 7 | | Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 |
191551 | 2018-05-14 | 2018-05-14 | musashimaru | 1 | Right | [Liga MX - Clausura SF second leg ] Deportivo Toluca beats Club Tijuana |
191561 | 2018-05-16 | 2019-05-16 | lettergram | 1 | Right | AMD's stock hits $20 by May 16, 2019 |
191572 | 2018-05-17 | 2018-05-19 | Cato | 1 | Right | Lee to beat Yamaguchi at ONE on May 18 |
191586 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state? |
191587 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act? |
191588 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional? |
191589 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, US - In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional? |
191590 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals? |
191593 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional? |
191594 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander? |
191595 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-06-08 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Texan governor announces support for additional restrictions or mandatory checks on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. |
191596 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-06-08 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, US - Texan governor announces support for additional enforcement of existing restrictions or checks, or non-mandatory checks, on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. |
191597 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-06-08 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, South America - Pope Francis accepts resignation of at least ten of the Chilean bishops by the end of the 7th of June. |
191598 | 2018-05-19 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | Brent to remain above WTI throughout 2018 (end-of-day settlement). |
191599 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-06-13 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | Kim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks |
191600 | 2018-05-19 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | "Game of Thrones" S8E1 to officially air in 2019 H1 |
191601 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-10-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | The climate will be ENSO-neutral in 2018 Q3, according to the US NOAA. |
191602 | 2018-05-19 | 2018-05-19 | shardo | 2 | Right | Sankar is currently less than 10 posts into the book |
191609 | 2018-05-20 | 2019-07-16 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | Germany to win the World Cup |
191610 | 2018-05-20 | 2018-07-16 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | Iran to win the World Cup |
191611 | 2018-05-20 | 2018-06-18 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | Germany to beat Mexico June 17 |
191614 | 2018-05-20 | 2018-05-30 | pashak | 1 | Wrong | I will be asked to sign work contract before my trip to Greece and without pushing HR representatives. |
191617 | 2018-05-20 | 2018-06-03 | lukefreeman | 1 | Withdrawn | I will make it to hiking if it’s on Sunday June 3 |
191762 | 2018-05-25 | 2018-06-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | KOSPI will be down EOM. |
191763 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-26 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, Ireland - At least 75% of voters in Dublin voted Yes in the referendum on 2018-05-25. |
191764 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-10 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech - TSB has restored online banking access to all its customers by end of 2018-06-10. |
191765 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-03 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, Spain - Valtonyc arrested before end of 2018-06-03 |
191768 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-07-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | "Avengers: Infinity War" will make at least $2b worldwide in box office revenue by the end of June. |
191769 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-27 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | Jingnan Xiong to beat Laura Balin at ONE on May 26. |
191770 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | ITA will be up MoM at end of May. |
191771 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-27 | Cato | 1 | Right | Kristofic to beat Raska at Oktagon 6 |
191772 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | Milson Castro to beat Daniel Ucan Avila at Mayan Fight Night |
191773 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-09 | Cato | 1 | Right | Krantz to beat Holdorf at LFA 42 |
191774 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-08 | Cato | 1 | Right | Andre Harrison to beat Jumabieke Tuerxun at PFL 1 |
191775 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-03 | Cato | 2 | Withdrawn | Pessoa to beat Santos at Nemesis FC 1 |
191776 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-03 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | Janssen to beat Zeitner at WLMMA 40 |
191777 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-06-03 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | Ngeleka to beat Ciumac at UMC 1 |
191778 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-31 | Cato | 2 | Right | Wenbo Liu to beat Marcelo Tenorio at Rebel FC 8 |
191779 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-28 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | Seiji Akao to beat Myung Gu Kim at Geat 42 |
191780 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-27 | Cato | 2 | Right | Benkaci to beat Orlov at Octogone 2 |
191781 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-27 | Cato | 1 | Right | Dias to beat Machado at Shooto Brasil 84 |
191782 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-27 | Cato | 2 | Right | RVA to beat Gutierrez at JFL 19 |
191783 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-27 | Cato | 1 | Right | Tsarukyan to beat Pfister at KLF/MFP 220 |
191784 | 2018-05-26 | 2018-05-27 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | Popov to beat Gromov at ZFP 3 |
191901 | 2018-05-30 | 2019-05-30 | Athrithalix | 4 | Wrong | Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. |
191906 | 2018-05-31 | 2019-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | I have exercised 260 days this year. |
191933 | 2018-06-02 | 2018-08-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Business, UK - Northern restores all cancelled daily rail services by the end of the 1st of August 2018. |
191934 | 2018-06-02 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - New Hampshire HB 1319 passes the Senate before the end of June 2018. |
191935 | 2018-06-02 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, US - New Hampshire Governor signs HB 1319 before the end of June 2018. |
191936 | 2018-06-02 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - Former FBI Deputy Andrew McCabe charged for lying under oath by end of June 2018. |
191981 | 2018-06-10 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, EU - Article 13 of the Copyright Directive passes before the end of June 2018. |
191982 | 2018-06-10 | 2018-07-01 | jbeshir | 7 | Wrong | Politics - Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. |
192061 | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-15 | zachriddle | 1 | Withdrawn | 6/14 1on1 - AC - will use the phrase "over-engineering" |
192062 | 2018-06-14 | 2018-06-15 | zachriddle | 1 | Withdrawn | 6/14 1on1 – AC – Dialer Project 2 month estimate - Will ask at least 5 follow-up questions about time |
192063 | 2018-06-14 | 2018-07-31 | zachriddle | 1 | Withdrawn | Dialer Project - Will be deployed to prod making decisions after July 31 |
192092 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-08-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - Permission is granted or objections withdrawn by the Home Office to permitting Billy Caldwell to have a prescription for a THC-containing medical product before the end of July 2018. |
192093 | 2018-06-16 | 2018-08-01 | jbeshir | 6 | Right | Politics, US - The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. |
192096 | 2018-06-17 | 2019-01-01 | avi | 2 | Wrong | SITSA Act is signed into law. |
192109 | 2018-06-18 | 2018-07-15 | ldor_11 | 3 | Wrong | Germany will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. |
192145 | 2018-06-19 | 2018-07-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. |
192146 | 2018-06-19 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | HK's Basic Law to be cancelled in 2018. |
192147 | 2018-06-19 | 2018-06-23 | Cato | 2 | Right | OPEC will vote to increase oil production on June 22. |
192192 | 2018-06-23 | 2030-01-01 | gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com | 1 | | Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030 |
192193 | 2018-06-23 | 2030-01-01 | d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com | 1 | | Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030 |
192194 | 2018-06-23 | 2030-01-01 | d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com | 1 | | The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 |
192267 | 2018-06-30 | 2018-12-31 | imaxwell | 2 | | My relationship with L. will be ongoing as of the end of 2018. |
192269 | 2018-06-30 | 2018-07-14 | Joy | 5 | Right | It's a test prediction |
192285 | 2018-07-05 | 2025-05-16 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025 |
192396 | 2018-07-10 | 2018-08-10 | splorridge | 1 | Wrong | UK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month |
192397 | 2018-07-10 | 2018-09-10 | splorridge | 2 | Wrong | UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months |
192398 | 2018-07-10 | 2018-09-10 | splorridge | 3 | Wrong | UK politics: general election called in next two months |
192436 | 2018-07-16 | 2019-01-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. |
192437 | 2018-07-16 | 2018-10-29 | Cato | 2 | Right | Bolsonaro to be elected president of Brazil |
192438 | 2018-07-16 | 2018-09-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | Reddit to be blocked in China by August EOM |
192491 | 2018-07-19 | 2018-07-26 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | david kim wins primary in ga-07 |
192620 | 2018-07-25 | 2020-01-01 | FestiveBleak | 10 | Wrong | Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. |
192634 | 2018-07-30 | 2018-08-30 | elephantower | 1 | Right | jones wins special election primary in MI-13 |
192635 | 2018-07-30 | 2018-07-30 | elephantower | 1 | Right | McBath wins GA-07 Dem primary |
192636 | 2018-07-30 | 2018-07-30 | elephantower | 1 | Wrong | shafer wins lt gov primary |
192637 | 2018-07-30 | 2018-07-30 | elephantower | 1 | Right | MoV in GA GOP gov primary over 20% |
192651 | 2018-08-02 | 2018-11-07 | SeriousPod | 8 | Right | Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 |
192652 | 2018-08-02 | 2020-11-04 | SeriousPod | 15 | | Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 |
192653 | 2018-08-02 | 2020-11-04 | SeriousPod | 1 | | Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020 |
192654 | 2018-08-02 | 2022-11-08 | SeriousPod | 2 | | Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 |
192655 | 2018-08-02 | 2038-08-15 | JoshuaZ | 4 | | Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038 |
192943 | 2018-08-26 | 2018-08-26 | rk | 1 | Right | Alexis up before 12 |
192948 | 2018-08-27 | 2018-09-06 | Leo | 5 | Wrong | Ethereal will win TCEC season 13 |
192949 | 2018-08-27 | 2019-01-01 | Leo | 1 | Right | [In 2018 I will read at least] 80 books |
192950 | 2018-08-27 | 2019-01-01 | Leo | 1 | Wrong | [In 2018 I will read at least] 90 books |
192951 | 2018-08-27 | 2019-01-01 | Leo | 1 | Wrong | [In 2018 I will read at least] 100 books |
192952 | 2018-08-27 | 2019-01-01 | Leo | 1 | Wrong | [In 2018 I will read at least] 110 books |
192953 | 2018-08-27 | 2019-01-01 | Leo | 1 | Wrong | [In 2018 I will read at least] 120 books |
192957 | 2018-08-28 | 2021-01-01 | lukefreeman | 8 | | A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 |
193045 | 2018-08-30 | 2030-01-31 | prophetofprofit | 1 | | Seth Frotman's concerns about student loan lending practices will be vindicated |
193142 | 2018-09-04 | 2018-12-04 | Somni | 1 | | given S continues taking s in the next three months, they will blackout at least once in the next three months. will return inconclusive if the supposition is false. |
193161 | 2018-09-08 | 2019-09-28 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | US, Politics - The "Fahrenheit 11/9" movie ranks 2nd in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ |
193162 | 2018-09-08 | 2019-06-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Politics, Central America - Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. |
193222 | 2018-09-15 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Politics, Korea - Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. |
193225 | 2018-09-15 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics, UK - Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. |
193330 | 2018-09-23 | 2018-11-07 | lukefreeman | 2 | Right | Politics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018 |
193333 | 2018-09-23 | 2048-09-23 | jhairguz.t@gmail.com | 1 | | Finished the water |
193334 | 2018-09-23 | 2026-09-23 | jhairguz.t@gmail.com | 1 | | Java va a desaparecer o perder el mercado, segun Diego de makerlab. |
193335 | 2018-09-23 | 2038-09-23 | jhairguz.t@gmail.com | 1 | | Todas las pwrsonas usaremos IA al menos una vez en su vida en Peru, segun Marcos |
193342 | 2018-09-25 | 2039-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | | Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038. |
193343 | 2018-09-25 | 2086-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | The first human being will be born on the moon between 2060 and 2085. |
193344 | 2018-09-25 | 2091-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090 |
193345 | 2018-09-25 | 2056-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055. |
193346 | 2018-09-25 | 2064-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063. |
193347 | 2018-09-25 | 2086-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085. |
193348 | 2018-09-25 | 2053-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | | The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 |
193349 | 2018-09-25 | 2063-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062. |
193350 | 2018-09-25 | 2086-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085. |
193351 | 2018-09-25 | 2101-01-02 | pranomostro | 1 | | Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon by 2100. |
193352 | 2018-09-25 | 2101-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | | Humanity will establish a permanent base on mars until 2100. |
193353 | 2018-09-25 | 2101-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive. |
193354 | 2018-09-25 | 2101-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | | AI goes FOOM until 2100. |
193355 | 2018-09-25 | 2101-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | | The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve. |
193387 | 2018-09-28 | 2019-08-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Politics, US - In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. |
193388 | 2018-09-28 | 2018-11-07 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics, US - Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election, |
193389 | 2018-09-28 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times "Resistance" op-ed. |
193409 | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-30 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | LeVeon Bell won't be traded |
193410 | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-02 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | The hotel room has a fridge |
193411 | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-02 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | The hotel room has a big bathtub |
193412 | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-02 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | The hotel room has a king sized bed |
193413 | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-04 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | It costs $200 or less to fix my bike |
193414 | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | It costs $100 or less to fix my bike |
193415 | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | They fix my bike for free |
193432 | 2018-10-04 | 2018-10-04 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | We get kicked out of the hotel |
193433 | 2018-10-05 | 2018-10-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | Alex and Jenny will be home |
193469 | 2018-10-10 | 2018-11-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I get at least a raise of at least 9%. |
193473 | 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-10 | krazemon | 1 | Wrong | Larry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election. |
193474 | 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-10 | krazemon | 3 | Wrong | Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. |
193475 | 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-10 | krazemon | 2 | Right | Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. |
193525 | 2018-10-17 | 2018-12-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal - I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. |
193528 | 2018-10-18 | 2018-10-18 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | One of my specs is screwed up |
193533 | 2018-10-19 | 2018-10-19 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal, Productivity - I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC |
193534 | 2018-10-19 | 2019-10-19 | peter_hurford | 3 | Wrong | EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). |
193535 | 2018-10-19 | 2019-10-19 | peter_hurford | 4 | Wrong | EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) |
193539 | 2018-10-20 | 2018-12-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Tech - Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018. |
193540 | 2018-10-20 | 2018-10-28 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech - Simon Segars (CEO of ARM) announces that they will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh before 2018-10-28. |
193541 | 2018-10-20 | 2018-11-07 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Politics, US - California Proposition 12 in the November 2018 election passes. |
193587 | 2018-10-27 | 2019-01-01 | marianne | 3 | Right | ACE will announce THL as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 |
193588 | 2018-10-27 | 2019-01-01 | marianne | 3 | Right | ACE will announce Animal Equality as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 |
193589 | 2018-10-27 | 2019-01-01 | marianne | 2 | Wrong | ACE will announce MFA as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 |
193599 | 2018-10-30 | 2018-12-08 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Jens Spahn |
193600 | 2018-10-30 | 2018-12-08 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Armin Laschet |
193601 | 2018-10-30 | 2018-12-08 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Friedrich Merz |
193602 | 2018-10-30 | 2018-12-08 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Other |
193635 | 2018-11-05 | 2018-12-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. |
193636 | 2018-11-05 | 2018-11-07 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - Martha McSally is elected senator for Arizona in the November 2018 election. |
193637 | 2018-11-05 | 2018-12-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics - Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December. |
193638 | 2018-11-06 | 2018-11-07 | rk | 1 | Wrong | IE (not Edge) market share between 15-30% |
193641 | 2018-11-08 | 2019-02-14 | rimbalzanoo | 3 | Wrong | Jets will win the super bowl |
193662 | 2018-11-11 | 2019-03-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, US - Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, |
193663 | 2018-11-11 | 2018-12-29 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Tech - Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. |
193664 | 2018-11-11 | 2019-05-30 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Politics, US - In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. |
193667 | 2018-11-12 | 2018-11-28 | WilliamKiely | 10 | Wrong | [Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds |
193668 | 2018-11-12 | 2018-11-28 | WilliamKiely | 7 | Wrong | [Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds |
193669 | 2018-11-12 | 2018-11-28 | WilliamKiely | 12 | Right | [Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds |
193670 | 2018-11-12 | 2018-11-28 | WilliamKiely | 9 | Right | [Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds |
193671 | 2018-11-12 | 2018-11-28 | WilliamKiely | 7 | Right | [Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017) |
193672 | 2018-11-12 | 2018-11-28 | WilliamKiely | 10 | Right | [Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes |
193676 | 2018-11-12 | 2026-12-31 | amadeu | 5 | | US will have universal health care system by 2026 |
193695 | 2018-11-17 | 2018-11-24 | Somni | 1 | Wrong | ronit and somni will coordinate next week |
193703 | 2018-11-20 | 2019-01-04 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal, Accounts - My Money Dashboard totals are below -£2000 at the start of 2019-01-04. |
193704 | 2018-11-20 | 2018-12-29 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Econ - The closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018 is between $1200 and $1250. |
193705 | 2018-11-20 | 2019-02-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Econ - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. |
193706 | 2018-11-20 | 2019-02-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Econ - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. |
193709 | 2018-11-22 | 2019-02-19 | bendini | 3 | Wrong | Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) |
193712 | 2018-11-24 | 2018-12-01 | Somni | 1 | Right | ronit and somni will coordinate next week |
193713 | 2018-11-24 | 2018-11-25 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal, Productivity - I spent at least three hours working on ML projects before the end of 2018-11-24 UTC. |
193714 | 2018-11-24 | 2019-01-31 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Econ - The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. |
193715 | 2018-11-24 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Econ - The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverts before 2019, as defined as the former having a higher figure in the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate on any one day prior to then. |
193716 | 2018-11-24 | 2019-04-02 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Econ -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive. |
193733 | 2018-12-01 | 2018-12-14 | jmcglade | 1 | | i will pass sra 311 |
193737 | 2018-12-01 | 2019-01-01 | absurdseagull | 2 | Wrong | My biomanufacturing partner will have a job within a month |
193738 | 2018-12-01 | 2021-12-31 | Michael Dickens | 8 | | By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. |
193739 | 2018-12-01 | 2023-12-01 | jazzsolo | 3 | | Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. |
193750 | 2018-12-03 | 2023-12-31 | jazzsolo | 6 | | Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years |
193751 | 2018-12-03 | 2028-12-31 | jazzsolo | 5 | | Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years. |
193752 | 2018-12-03 | 2048-12-31 | jazzsolo | 3 | | Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years. |
193753 | 2018-12-03 | 2118-12-31 | jazzsolo | 3 | | Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years. |
193754 | 2018-12-03 | 2019-03-03 | jazzsolo | 11 | Wrong | Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. |
193823 | 2018-12-09 | 2019-08-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. |
193824 | 2018-12-09 | 2020-01-01 | jbeshir | 6 | Wrong | Politics - North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. |
193831 | 2018-12-09 | 2019-01-30 | Noa Nabeshima | 1 | Withdrawn | If the chess AI competition occurs, I will win it. |
193838 | 2018-12-10 | 2020-02-01 | gallerdude | 2 | | Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character |
193839 | 2018-12-10 | 2020-02-01 | gallerdude | 2 | Wrong | Doomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character |
193867 | 2018-12-18 | 2018-12-19 | leo_grint | 1 | Right | <5 personnes restant au moins 5 min entre 17h30 et 18h50 |
193868 | 2018-12-19 | 2018-12-28 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-21). |
193869 | 2018-12-20 | 2019-02-15 | balfours_ghost | 2 | Right | Bryce Harper will sign a contract with minimum length of 10 years. |
193880 | 2018-12-21 | 2024-03-17 | Stommelen | 8 | | Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) |
193893 | 2018-12-21 | 2020-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | Right | I will have at least one more math paper published before the end of 2019. |
193903 | 2018-12-22 | 2019-03-30 | jbeshir | 8 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. |
193904 | 2018-12-22 | 2019-07-01 | jbeshir | 14 | Wrong | Politics, UK - There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. |
193905 | 2018-12-22 | 2019-07-01 | jbeshir | 14 | Wrong | Politics, UK - There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. |
193906 | 2018-12-22 | 2019-02-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, US - U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 "Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions" for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. |
193907 | 2018-12-24 | 2019-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal - I buy a coat before the 1st of January 2019. |
193910 | 2018-12-27 | 2018-12-27 | notsonewuser | 1 | Right | The B's will be at the meeting. |
193939 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Right | The African Continental Free Trade Agreement has 22 ratifications or more. |
193940 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Jach | 1 | Right | I will finish 8 or more books this year |
193947 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [Personal - my weight in kg is] <80 |
193948 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [Personal - my weight in kg is] <85 |
193949 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [Personal - my weight in kg is] <90 |
193950 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [Personal - my weight in kg is] <95 |
193951 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | [Personal - my weight in kg is] <100 |
193969 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative |
193970 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Right | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative |
193971 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion |
193972 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive |
193973 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive |
193974 | 2019-01-01 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive |
193975 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-04-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 40 |
193976 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-04-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 45 |
193977 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-04-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 50 |
193978 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-04-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 55 |
193979 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-04-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 60 |
193980 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-04-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 65 |
193981 | 2019-01-01 | 2019-04-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 70 |
193982 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-07-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 85 |
193983 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-07-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 105 |
193984 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-07-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 115 |
193985 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-07-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 125 |
193986 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-07-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 130 |
193987 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-07-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 135 |
193988 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-10-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 135 |
193989 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-10-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 150 |
193990 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-10-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 165 |
193991 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-10-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 180 |
193992 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-10-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 195 |
193993 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-10-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 200 |
193994 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 262 |
193995 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 260 |
193996 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 250 |
193997 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 240 |
193998 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 230 |
193999 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 220 |
194000 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 210 |
194001 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 200 |
194002 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 190 |
194003 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 180 |
194004 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [My total days exercised this year:] 170 |
194007 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Right | Personal: I still read reddit frequently |
194008 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) |
194009 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 5 | Right | The Chavista regime rules Venezuela |
194010 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-12-10 | Bruno Parga | 7 | Wrong | Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina |
194011 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | Wrong | The Taliban control most of Afghanistan including Kabul |
194012 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-09-11 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Right | The African National Congress wins the South African presidential elections |
194013 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-09-11 | Bruno Parga | 4 | Right | The Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election |
194014 | 2019-01-02 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative |
194015 | 2019-01-02 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative |
194016 | 2019-01-02 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative |
194017 | 2019-01-02 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion |
194018 | 2019-01-02 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive |
194019 | 2019-01-02 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive |
194020 | 2019-01-02 | 2023-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive |
194023 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Withdrawn | [My predominant keyboard layout is] Colemak |
194024 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | Withdrawn | [My predominant keyboard layout is] Dvorak |
194035 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 2 |
194036 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Wrong | [I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 3+ |
194041 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Fighting] UFC 245 to occur in 2019 |
194042 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. |
194043 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | The US 10y-1y yield curve will invert in 2019. |
194044 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | Dillashaw to beat Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 143 |
194045 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Right | VanZant to beat Ostovich at UFC Fight Night 143 |
194046 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | Hernandez to beat Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 143 |
194047 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Right | Gillespie to beat Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 143 |
194048 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January |
194049 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-04-05 | Cato | 4 | Right | Brent crude to remain above WTI throughout 1Q19 |
194050 | 2019-01-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. |
194051 | 2019-01-02 | 2019-08-01 | jacobgreenleaf | 2 | Wrong | TSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less. |
194057 | 2019-01-03 | 2020-01-01 | bobpage | 1 | Wrong | I will move before 2020 |
194060 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-04-05 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel |
194061 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-04-05 | Cato | 11 | Right | [The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $60 and $70/barrel |
194062 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-04-05 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel |
194063 | 2019-01-04 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 25 | Right | Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 |
194064 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-01-27 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | Askren to beat Lawler at UFC 233 |
194065 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-02-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | I will finish "Stories of the Sahara" in January. |
194066 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-03-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | I will leave the country at least once before March 1. |
194067 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. |
194068 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-04-05 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | WTI forward curve to be upsloped for all of 1Q19. |
194069 | 2019-01-04 | 2019-01-11 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-04). |
194072 | 2019-01-05 | 2019-03-01 | notsonewuser | 13 | Right | The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. |
194073 | 2019-01-05 | 2019-04-01 | notsonewuser | 5 | Right | The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. |
194074 | 2019-01-05 | 2019-03-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | The Steelers don't pick up Dupree's $9M option |
194075 | 2019-01-05 | 2019-03-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | The Steelers don't continue with Antonio Brown |
194076 | 2019-01-05 | 2019-03-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Wrong | Keith Butler gets fired |
194077 | 2019-01-05 | 2019-03-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Mike Tomlin doesn't get fired |
194078 | 2019-01-05 | 2019-03-05 | Adam Zerner | 1 | Right | Randy Fitchner doesn't get fired |
194089 | 2019-01-07 | 2019-03-30 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. |
194090 | 2019-01-07 | 2019-08-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. |
194091 | 2019-01-07 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | I will move to another city by the end of 2019. |
194094 | 2019-01-07 | 2101-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | | "We will not discover a way to create even small worlds (e.g. a house-sized world)" |
194095 | 2019-01-08 | 2019-02-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Books] I will finish reading "Restless Empire" by January EOM. |
194096 | 2019-01-08 | 2019-03-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Books] I will finish Vogel's biography of DXP by February EOM. |
194097 | 2019-01-08 | 2019-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Personal] I will go to the gym 12x in the remaining 24 days in January. |
194098 | 2019-01-08 | 2019-04-06 | playablecharacter | 1 | Wrong | I have sex at least once in the next 3 months |
194099 | 2019-01-08 | 2019-01-16 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | UK - Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 fails to be substantiated (reinforced by other evidence and authorities describe as credible) before or on 2019-01-15. |
194100 | 2019-01-08 | 2019-01-16 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | UK - Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 leads to an arrest before or on 2019-01-15. |
194101 | 2019-01-08 | 2030-01-02 | pranomostro | 1 | | At least 20 of the top 100 websites (Alexa rank) will only be usable (core functionality) after having paid a fee |
194103 | 2019-01-08 | 2030-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | | Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin |
194104 | 2019-01-08 | 2025-01-01 | pranomostro | 7 | | One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. |
194105 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019. |
194106 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Betting Odds |
194107 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve) |
194108 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated) |
194109 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace |
194110 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve) |
194111 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-01-20 | Cato | 1 | Right | [[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated) |
194112 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-09-30 | Cato | 3 | Right | Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. |
194113 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-03-04 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Politics] Centre Party (Keskerakond) to remain in government after the 2019 Estonian elections. |
194114 | 2019-01-09 | 2020-06-10 | lettergram | 2 | Right | Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs |
194116 | 2019-01-09 | 2019-12-31 | objclone | 4 | Wrong | $AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 |
194119 | 2019-01-10 | 2019-01-14 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Personal] I will go to the cinema before Monday. |
194120 | 2019-01-10 | 2019-01-27 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214. |
194121 | 2019-01-10 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Diaz and Masvidal to fight at UFC 235. |
194122 | 2019-01-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Fighting] Conor McGregor to fight in a discipline other than MMA in 2019 |
194123 | 2019-01-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Fighting] Daniel Cormier to fight Jon Jones in 2019 |
194124 | 2019-01-10 | 2019-05-12 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Rose Namajunas to beat Jessica Andrade at UFC 237 |
194142 | 2019-01-11 | 2019-03-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28 |
194143 | 2019-01-11 | 2019-01-18 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-11). |
194150 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-01-21 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend. |
194151 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman |
194152 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 2 | Right | [[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler |
194153 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 2 | Right | [[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith |
194154 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-02-18 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 |
194155 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-01-16 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Commodities] US crude oil production in 2018-12 to have exceeded production in 2018-11 |
194156 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 |
194157 | 2019-01-14 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 |
194158 | 2019-01-14 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 |
194159 | 2019-01-14 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Economy] S&P 500 to outperform Shanghai Stock Index in 2019 |
194164 | 2019-01-15 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 15 | Wrong | [Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. |
194165 | 2019-01-15 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. |
194174 | 2019-01-16 | 2019-01-17 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Personal] I will set a deadlift volume PR today. |
194175 | 2019-01-16 | 2019-07-15 | objclone | 4 | Wrong | USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 |
194176 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 9 | Right | Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 |
194177 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 3 | Right | 1 or more "CRISPR babies" will be announced before the end of 2019 |
194178 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 1 | | Personal - My mother will be called about the possibility of donor organs before the end of 2019 |
194179 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 1 | | Personal - My mother will undergo transplant surgery before the end of 2019 |
194183 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 1 | Withdrawn | Personal - I will experience NENB at least once in 2019 |
194190 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 2 | | Personal - I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019 |
194191 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 2 | | Personal - I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019 |
194192 | 2019-01-16 | 2020-01-01 | Selentelechia | 1 | | Personal - I will be able to complete one unassisted pull-up at least once in 2019 |
194212 | 2019-01-18 | 2019-01-19 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today. |
194220 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 5 | Right | "Donald Trump will still be in office" |
194221 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Wrong | "No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019" |
194222 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "The US will not enter a recession" |
194223 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Congress will not authorize funding for a full-length border wall" |
194224 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "US homicides will decline" |
194225 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | Wrong | "The United Kingdom will leave the European Union" |
194226 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "Narendra Modi will continue as Indian prime minister after the 2019 elections" |
194227 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Neither India nor China will enter a recession" |
194228 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Malaria deaths will decrease" |
194229 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 4 | Right | "No additional countries will adopt a universal basic income" |
194230 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | Right | "More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018" |
194231 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Wrong | "Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain" |
194232 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Fully autonomous self-driving cars will not be commercially available as taxis or for sale" |
194233 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "DeepMind will release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain" |
194234 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018" |
194235 | 2019-01-19 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "Global carbon emissions will increase" |
194247 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-03-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet by February EOM |
194248 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-03-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam |
194249 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1 |
194250 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 |
194251 | 2019-01-21 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 |
194252 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-05-01 | Cato | 14 | Right | Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 |
194253 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 5 | Right | The winner of the 2019 World Snooker Championship to be British |
194258 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-01-22 | dmwit | 1 | Wrong | I will attend go club today. |
194259 | 2019-01-21 | 2019-01-22 | dmwit | 1 | Wrong | I will do eight hours of productive work today. |
194262 | 2019-01-22 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Fighting] Dominick Cruz to fight in 2019 |
194263 | 2019-01-22 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight Conor McGregor in 2019 |
194264 | 2019-01-22 | 2019-01-25 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-18 relative to 2019-01-11 |
194265 | 2019-01-22 | 2019-01-30 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-25 relative to 2019-01-18 |
194268 | 2019-01-22 | 2020-11-05 | KangaRookie | 14 | | [Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. |
194269 | 2019-01-22 | 2019-01-28 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Personal] I will leave the country this weekend. |
194304 | 2019-01-26 | 2019-12-31 | jacobgreenleaf | 2 | Wrong | China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. |
194305 | 2019-01-26 | 2019-01-26 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | Tom Brady is under 40. |
194306 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | Wrong | "Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field" |
194307 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Wrong | "Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field" |
194308 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Joe Biden leads the Democratic field" |
194309 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 6 | Wrong | "Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field" |
194310 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Trump is still leading in prediction markets to be Republican nominee" |
194311 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican" |
194312 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 4 | Right | "Trump’s approval rating below 50" |
194313 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Wrong | "Trump’s approval rating below 40" |
194314 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 5 | Right | "Ginsberg [sic!] still alive" |
194315 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | Right | "Bitcoin above 1000" |
194316 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 4 | Right | "Bitcoin above 3000" |
194317 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 4 | Right | "Bitcoin above 5000" |
194318 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | Right | "Bitcoin above Ethereum" |
194319 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Dow above current value of 25000" |
194320 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Wrong | "SpaceX successfully launches and returns crewed spacecraft" |
194321 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Wrong | "SpaceX Starship reaches orbit" |
194322 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | Right | "No city where a member of the general public can ride self-driving car without attendant" |
194323 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Wrong | "I can buy an Impossible Burger at a grocery store within a 30 minute walk from my house" |
194324 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "Pregabalin successfully goes generic and costs less than $100/month on GoodRx.com" |
194325 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Right | "No further CRISPR-edited babies born" |
194326 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 5 | Wrong | "Britain out of EU" |
194327 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 14 | Wrong | "Britain holds second Brexit referendum" |
194328 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 7 | Right | "No other EU country announces plan to leave" |
194329 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 1 | Wrong | "China does not manage to avert economic crisis (subjective)" |
194330 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 13 | Right | "Xi still in power" |
194331 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 5 | Right | "MbS still in power" |
194332 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 9 | Wrong | "May still in power" |
194333 | 2019-01-26 | 2020-01-01 | pranomostro | 2 | Right | "Nothing more embarassing than Vigano memo happens to Pope Francis" |
194355 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 0 books |
194356 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 1 book |
194357 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 2 books |
194358 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 3 books |
194359 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 4 books |
194360 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 5 books |
194361 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 6 books |
194362 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 7 books |
194363 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 8 books |
194364 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 9 books |
194365 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 10 books |
194366 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 11 books |
194367 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 12 books |
194368 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 13 books |
194369 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-02-11 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 14 books |
194374 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ |
194375 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ |
194376 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ |
194377 | 2019-02-01 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 |
194378 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ |
194379 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ |
194380 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ |
194381 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ |
194382 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ |
194383 | 2019-02-01 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ |
194389 | 2019-02-02 | 2050-03-01 | xdxdxd | 3 | | Insects can feel pain and suffer |
194390 | 2019-02-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 15 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in December for which data are published |
194391 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-12-01 | Cato | 17 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published |
194392 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 12 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published |
194393 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 12 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published |
194394 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 13 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in August for which data are published |
194395 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 15 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published |
194396 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 11 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published |
194397 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-06-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published |
194398 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-01 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in April for which data are published |
194399 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in March for which data are published |
194400 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] June 19 FOMC meeting |
194401 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] July 31 FOMC meeting |
194402 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] September 18 FOMC meeting |
194403 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting |
194404 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] December 11 FOMC meeting |
194405 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 |
194406 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of April than at end of March 2019 |
194407 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019 |
194408 | 2019-02-02 | 2019-05-01 | Cato | 12 | Wrong | [Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months |
194409 | 2019-02-02 | 2020-01-01 | bklorimer | 4 | Right | Trump will not be impeached |
194445 | 2019-02-11 | 2019-03-11 | dmwit | 1 | Wrong | I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=0 |
194446 | 2019-02-11 | 2019-03-11 | dmwit | 1 | Right | I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=1 |
194447 | 2019-02-11 | 2019-03-11 | dmwit | 1 | Wrong | I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=2 |
194448 | 2019-02-11 | 2019-03-11 | dmwit | 1 | Wrong | I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=3 |
194449 | 2019-02-11 | 2019-03-11 | dmwit | 1 | Wrong | I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X>=4 |
194453 | 2019-02-12 | 2020-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Right | Kosovo has <117 diplomatic recognitions |
194456 | 2019-02-12 | 2019-02-18 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] "Laplace" to perform best |
194457 | 2019-02-12 | 2019-02-18 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] "Reach" to perform best |
194458 | 2019-02-12 | 2019-02-18 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] None of the three models to outperform chance |
194459 | 2019-02-12 | 2019-02-18 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly one of the three models to outperform chance |
194460 | 2019-02-12 | 2019-02-18 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly two of the three models to outperform chance |
194461 | 2019-02-12 | 2019-02-18 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] All three models to outperform chance |
194466 | 2019-02-13 | 2020-12-31 | Coagulopath | 8 | | No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 |
194467 | 2019-02-13 | 2020-12-21 | Coagulopath | 1 | | Business income grows by at least 10% |
194468 | 2019-02-13 | 2020-12-31 | Coagulopath | 4 | | Bitcoin finishes year < $10k USD |
194469 | 2019-02-13 | 2020-12-31 | Coagulopath | 2 | | Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets |
194470 | 2019-02-13 | 2020-12-31 | Coagulopath | 1 | | Darksydephil loses his house (or begins an unavoidable slide in that direction) |
194471 | 2019-02-13 | 2020-12-31 | Coagulopath | 12 | | Donald Trump is still president |
194472 | 2019-02-13 | 2020-12-31 | Coagulopath | 4 | | Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year |
194480 | 2019-02-14 | 2022-01-01 | Cato | 7 | Right | Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021 |
194481 | 2019-02-14 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 |
194482 | 2019-02-14 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019 |
194483 | 2019-02-14 | 2020-02-14 | shardo | 1 | Wrong | Having an agw for myself. |
194486 | 2019-02-15 | 2019-10-22 | RedScharlach | 1 | Wrong | [Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019 |
194487 | 2019-02-15 | 2019-10-30 | RedScharlach | 2 | Wrong | [Baseball] The New York Mets will win the World Series in 2019 |
194488 | 2019-02-15 | 2021-01-20 | RedScharlach | 10 | | [Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term |
194489 | 2019-02-15 | 2020-11-03 | RedScharlach | 9 | | [Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term |
194490 | 2019-02-15 | 2020-11-03 | RedScharlach | 5 | Right | [Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump |
194491 | 2019-02-16 | 2019-02-22 | notsonewuser | 2 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-15). |
194492 | 2019-02-16 | 2020-01-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Wrong | Politics, US - Mick Mulvaney ceases to be Chief of Staff before the 1st of January, 2020 |
194493 | 2019-02-16 | 2020-01-01 | jbeshir | 6 | Wrong | Before 1 January 2020, any EU member state besides the UK sets a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. |
194494 | 2019-02-17 | 2020-01-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics - Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020. |
194498 | 2019-02-17 | 2019-04-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - Current Labour MP resigns the whip before 2019-04-01 |
194499 | 2019-02-17 | 2019-03-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Science - Conditional on being given an answer, I'm told that a majority of participants in the VAC066 trial did not develop malaria at the end of the monitoring period. |
194502 | 2019-02-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 7 | Right | [Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances again in 2019 |
194508 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-02-24 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance |
194509 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-02-24 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance |
194510 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-02-24 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] None of the models to outperform chance |
194511 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-02-24 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] "Reach" to perform best |
194512 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-02-24 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] "Laplace" to perform best |
194513 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-02-24 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] "Market" to perform best |
194514 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC 235] All three models to outperform chance |
194515 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance |
194516 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance |
194517 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC 235] None of the models to outperform chance |
194518 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC 235] "Reach" to perform best |
194519 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC 235] "Laplace" to perform best |
194520 | 2019-02-19 | 2019-03-03 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC 235] "Market" to perform best |
194526 | 2019-02-23 | 2019-03-01 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-02-22). |
194541 | 2019-02-27 | 2019-12-31 | bshih | 2 | Right | A PC standalone, F2P version of AutoChess will launch (defined as open to everyone, even if it's early access or beta) within 2019. |
194545 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-07-21 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics] Afghanistan to hold presidential elections as (re)scheduled on July 20, 2019 |
194546 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-03-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US FOMC March rate decision to be:] raise rate |
194547 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-03-21 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US FOMC March rate decision to be:] reduce rate |
194548 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-03-21 | Cato | 3 | Right | [US FOMC March rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged |
194549 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US FOMC May rate decision to be:] raise rate |
194550 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US FOMC May rate decision to be:] reduce rate |
194551 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-05-02 | Cato | 6 | Right | [US FOMC May rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged |
194552 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-20 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US FOMC June rate decision to be:] raise rate |
194553 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-20 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US FOMC June rate decision to be:] reduce rate |
194554 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-20 | Cato | 5 | Right | [US FOMC June rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged |
194555 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate |
194556 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate |
194557 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged |
194558 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-09-19 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate |
194559 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-09-19 | Cato | 9 | Right | [US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate |
194560 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-09-19 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged |
194561 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-10-31 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US FOMC October rate decision to be:] raise rate |
194562 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-10-31 | Cato | 8 | Right | [US FOMC October rate decision to be:] reduce rate |
194563 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-10-31 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US FOMC October rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged |
194564 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-12-12 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US FOMC December rate decision to be:] raise rate |
194565 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-12-12 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US FOMC December rate decision to be:] reduce rate |
194566 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-12-12 | Cato | 8 | Right | [US FOMC December rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged |
194567 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Politics] Robert Mueller to have submitted final report on Trump-Russia investigation by end of July 2019 |
194568 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general |
194569 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled |
194570 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled |
194571 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled |
194572 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-05 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled |
194573 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-06-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM |
194574 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through June EOM |
194575 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM |
194576 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through August EOM |
194577 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM |
194584 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] "Reach" to perform best |
194585 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] "Laplace" to perform best |
194586 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] None of the models to outperform chance |
194587 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance |
194588 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Right | [UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance |
194589 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] All three of the models to outperform chance |
194593 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-10-14 | wheat | 2 | | Hbox will win Pound, Smash N' Splash, Shine and The Big House in 2019 |
194606 | 2019-03-04 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 7 | Right | [Estonian governing coalition] to include Pro Patria (Isamaa) |
194607 | 2019-03-04 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Estonian governing coalition] to include Social Democrats (SDE) |
194608 | 2019-03-04 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019 |
194611 | 2019-03-04 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Riga in 2019 |
194612 | 2019-03-04 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [OMX Tallinn] to outperform S&P 500 in 2019 |
194613 | 2019-03-04 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 12 | Right | [OMX Tallinn] to perform better in 2019 than in 2018 |
194625 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-04-03 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Economy] UK's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for March 2019 to be higher than any month after July 2016 |
194626 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-06-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election |
194627 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate |
194628 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-06-01 | Cato | 13 | Wrong | [Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM |
194629 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-05-01 | Cato | 22 | Wrong | [Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM |
194630 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate |
194631 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Fighting] Georges St-Pierre to fight again in 2019 |
194632 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-10-22 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019 |
194633 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-10-22 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election |
194634 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | British Museum to return Hoa Hakananai’a to Rapa Nui in 2019 |
194635 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-10-28 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] < 35 |
194636 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-10-28 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] between 35 and 40 |
194637 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-10-28 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40 |
194638 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-10-28 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 |
194639 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | | US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018 |
194640 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | Harley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019 |
194641 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | Uber to file for IPO before August 1 |
194642 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-05-27 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election |
194643 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-04-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 1Q19 EOQ |
194644 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2Q19 EOQ |
194645 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ |
194646 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2019 EOY |
194678 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-05-12 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting] Namajunas and Andrade to fight at UFC 237 as scheduled |
194679 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Fighting] No more UFC "numbered events" to be canceled or rescheduled in 2019 |
194680 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] A UFC champion to move to a different promotion (e.g., ONE or Bellator) |
194681 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | Uber IPO valuation bigger than Lyft's, conditional on 2019 IPOs |
194684 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 |
194685 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 H1 |
194686 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 7 | Right | [IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 |
194687 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 H1 |
194688 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 |
194689 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 H1 |
194690 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 |
194691 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 H1 |
194692 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 |
194693 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 H1 |
194694 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 |
194695 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 H1 |
194696 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 |
194697 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 H1 |
194698 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 |
194699 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | [Personal] I will have applied to at least 5 jobs by the end of December, if I have not yet accepted an offer |
194700 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-12-01 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | [Personal] I will have applied to at least 5 jobs by the end of November, if I have not yet accepted an offer |
194715 | 2019-03-05 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Politics] Singapore to hold general election in 2019 |
194718 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-06-01 | Cato | 9 | Withdrawn | [Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou |
194719 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-06-01 | Cato | 5 | Withdrawn | [Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] releasing Meng Wanzhou |
194720 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate |
194721 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for first Democratic primary debate |
194722 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 12 | Withdrawn | [Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] under 20,000 |
194723 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 11 | Withdrawn | [Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 20,000 and 26,000 |
194724 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 |
194725 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 11 | Withdrawn | [Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] over 30,000 |
194726 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] EZdS to beat Curtis Millender |
194727 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Tim Means to beat Niko Price |
194728 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Alex White to beat Dan Moret |
194729 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Sergio Moraes to beat Anthony Martin |
194730 | 2019-03-06 | 2019-03-10 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Matt Schnell to beat Louis Smolka |
194765 | 2019-03-08 | 2020-01-01 | wheat | 2 | | Hungrybox will not a drop a set in Melee in 2019 |
194766 | 2019-03-09 | 2019-03-15 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-08). |
194773 | 2019-03-10 | 2021-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 5 | | Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021 |
194774 | 2019-03-10 | 2019-03-14 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 8 | Right | Blackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday |
194775 | 2019-03-10 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 13 | Wrong | Maduro ousted before end of 2019 |
194794 | 2019-03-12 | 2019-10-15 | Cato | 10 | Right | Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 |
194795 | 2019-03-12 | 2020-01-15 | Cato | 12 | Right | Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4 |
194830 | 2019-03-13 | 2019-04-18 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to re-elect Joko Widodo as president |
194831 | 2019-03-13 | 2019-04-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to be held as scheduled on April 9, 2019 |
194832 | 2019-03-13 | 2019-04-10 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to see Likud gain seats (from current 30) |
194837 | 2019-03-13 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | Taiwan to participate in World Health Assembly in May 2019 (observer status counts) |
194854 | 2019-03-13 | 2019-04-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2020 US crude oil production |
194859 | 2019-03-13 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 12 | Right | [Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate |
194910 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Withdrawn | [Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) |
194911 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Withdrawn | [Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil |
194912 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Withdrawn | [Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) |
194913 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Withdrawn | [Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX |
194914 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Withdrawn | [Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) |
194915 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Withdrawn | [Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) |
194916 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil |
194917 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) |
194918 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX |
194919 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) |
194920 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) |
194921 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-04-02 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) |
194922 | 2019-03-15 | 2020-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | Right | [Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2020 |
194923 | 2019-03-15 | 2020-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | Right | [Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2021 |
194924 | 2019-03-15 | 2020-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2022 |
194925 | 2019-03-15 | 2020-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2023 |
194926 | 2019-03-15 | 2020-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2024 |
194927 | 2019-03-15 | 2020-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 3 | | [Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2025 |
194928 | 2019-03-15 | 2020-06-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 10 | Wrong | Beto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee |
194929 | 2019-03-15 | 2019-07-06 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 |
194930 | 2019-03-15 | 2019-08-22 | Cato | 8 | Right | Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 |
194942 | 2019-03-16 | 2019-03-16 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | The web page had different behavior before a recent code change. |
194943 | 2019-03-17 | 2020-01-01 | waveman | 9 | Right | No Brexit by EOY 2019 |
194944 | 2019-03-17 | 2020-01-01 | waveman | 1 | Wrong | I will get to 67kg by EOY 2019 |
194951 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-04-19 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | [Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd) |
194952 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-04-19 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | [Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd) |
194953 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-04-19 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | [Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts after 2019 H1 |
194954 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-04-19 | Cato | 1 | Withdrawn | [Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] no change to cut level of 1.2 MMbpd or duration |
194955 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-07-30 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration of present cuts but no change in scale from 1.2 MMbpd |
194956 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-07-30 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd) |
194957 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-07-30 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd) |
194958 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-07-30 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts |
194959 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas |
194960 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen |
194961 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include anyone from mainland China in top 10 |
194962 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to give Theresa May top spot |
194963 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to give Angela Merkel top spot |
194964 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to give an American top spot |
194965 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include at least five Americans in the top 10 |
194966 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include at least six Americans in the top 10 |
194967 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include at least 7 Americans in the top 10 |
194968 | 2019-03-18 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include fewer than five Americans in the top 10 |
194976 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | A non-Marvel film to outgross "Captain Marvel" in 2019 |
194977 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | Any film to outgross "Captain Marvel" in 2019 |
194980 | 2019-03-19 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account |
194981 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government |
194982 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account |
194983 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include more Chinese companies than American |
194984 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list Walmart as the largest company in the world |
194985 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 Chinese companies in the top 10 |
194986 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 American companies in the top 10 |
194987 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 |
194988 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 40 "newcomers" |
194989 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 "newcomer" in the top 100 |
194990 | 2019-03-19 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019 H1 |
194991 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019 |
194992 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the EU |
194993 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the EU |
194994 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the eurozone |
194995 | 2019-03-19 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the eurozone |
195006 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195007 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195008 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195009 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 12 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195010 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195011 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195012 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-07 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195013 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40 |
195014 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195015 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195016 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195017 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195018 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195019 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195020 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-06-07 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195021 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] under $40 |
195022 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195023 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195024 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195025 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195026 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195027 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195028 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-07-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195029 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 |
195030 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195031 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195032 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195033 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195034 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195035 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195036 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-08-08 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195037 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] under $40 |
195038 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195039 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195040 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195041 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195042 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195043 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195044 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195045 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40 |
195046 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195047 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195048 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195049 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195050 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195051 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195052 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-10-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195053 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40 |
195054 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195055 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195056 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195057 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195058 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195059 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195060 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-11-07 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195061 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] under $40 |
195062 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195063 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195064 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 11 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195065 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 12 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195066 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195067 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195068 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-07 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195069 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] under $40 |
195070 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 |
195071 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 |
195072 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 12 | Right | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 |
195073 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 12 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 |
195074 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 |
195075 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 |
195076 | 2019-03-20 | 2020-01-07 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] higher than $100 |
195077 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | Qatar to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM |
195078 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | Indonesia to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM |
195079 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | OPEC to have exactly 14 members at August 2019 EOM |
195080 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | OPEC to have fewer than 14 members at August 2019 EOM |
195081 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-09-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | OPEC to have more than 14 members at August 2019 EOM |
195082 | 2019-03-20 | 2019-03-30 | 6thNapoleon | 12 | Wrong | The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March |
195083 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 5 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Stacey Abrams |
195084 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 5 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Julian Castro |
195085 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 4 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] John Hickenlooper |
195086 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 4 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kirsten Gillibrand |
195087 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 11 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke |
195088 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 7 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Andrew Yang |
195089 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 5 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Elizabeth Warren |
195090 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 11 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg |
195091 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 5 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Amy Klobuchar |
195092 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-09-06 | davatk | 7 | | [The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard |
195101 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-16 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.2 MMbpd |
195102 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-16 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.5 MMbpd |
195103 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-16 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd |
195104 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-16 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd |
195105 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-16 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb |
195106 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-16 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd |
195107 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-09-16 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.1 MMbpd |
195108 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-09-16 | Cato | 7 | Right | [Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.6 MMbpd |
195109 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-09-16 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd |
195110 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-09-16 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd |
195111 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-09-16 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb |
195112 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-09-16 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd |
195113 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-12-16 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1 MMbpd |
195114 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-12-16 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.7 MMbpd |
195115 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-12-16 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] UK to produce at least 1.4 MMbpd |
195116 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-12-16 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OPEC to produce at least 32 MMbpd |
195117 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-12-16 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb |
195118 | 2019-03-21 | 2019-12-16 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.7 MMbpd |
195119 | 2019-03-21 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Politics] Mueller report to state explicitly that Donald Trump is guilty of a crime, or that sufficient evidence exists to justify indictment |
195156 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-04-14 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195157 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-04-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195158 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-05-14 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195159 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-05-14 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195160 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-05-14 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195161 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-14 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195162 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-14 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195163 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-14 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195164 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-07-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195165 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-07-14 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195166 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-07-14 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195167 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-08-14 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195168 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-08-14 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195169 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-08-14 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195170 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195171 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195172 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195173 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-10-14 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195174 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-10-14 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195175 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-10-14 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195176 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-11-14 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195177 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-11-14 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195178 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-11-14 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195179 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-12-14 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195180 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-12-14 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195181 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-12-14 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195182 | 2019-03-22 | 2020-01-14 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195183 | 2019-03-22 | 2020-01-14 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195184 | 2019-03-22 | 2020-01-14 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195185 | 2019-03-22 | 2020-02-14 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions |
195186 | 2019-03-22 | 2020-02-14 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions |
195187 | 2019-03-22 | 2020-02-14 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions |
195190 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-07-06 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Fighting] UFC 239 to be held as scheduled on July 6, 2019 |
195191 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-30 | Cato | 4 | Right | [2019 European Games] Russia to win the most gold medals |
195192 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-30 | Cato | 3 | Right | [2019 European Games] Russia to win the most silver medals |
195193 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-30 | Cato | 4 | Right | [2019 European Games] Russia to win the most bronze medals |
195194 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-30 | Cato | 4 | Right | [2019 European Games] Russia to win the most medals |
195195 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-30 | Cato | 3 | Right | [2019 European Games] Host country Belarus to win at least 1 gold medal |
195196 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-30 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least 1 gold medal |
195197 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-06-30 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing |
195198 | 2019-03-22 | 2019-03-29 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-22). |
195203 | 2019-03-25 | 2019-04-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | Wrong | Felix Sater gives a new explanation for his email remarks linking the engineering of Trump's election victory to a Putin-team buy-in. |
195204 | 2019-03-25 | 2019-04-12 | 6thNapoleon | 12 | Wrong | The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April |
195205 | 2019-03-25 | 2020-07-20 | skateboard34 | 17 | Wrong | Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. |
195206 | 2019-03-25 | 2019-07-01 | skateboard34 | 12 | Wrong | Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. |
195216 | 2019-03-28 | 2023-01-01 | chemotaxis101 | 2 | | Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito. |
195220 | 2019-03-30 | 2019-03-31 | Temp123 | 1 | | A |
195221 | 2019-03-30 | 2020-01-01 | kennykhsiung | 2 | Withdrawn | I will graduate from PSU in 2019 |
195237 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-05-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 5 | Wrong | Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of April |
195238 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-06-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | Wrong | Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May |
195239 | 2019-04-03 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | Wrong | Rex Tillerson testifies publicly before Congress before 2020 |
195240 | 2019-04-03 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | Wrong | Rick Perry testifies publicly before the Senate Armed Services committee before 2020 |
195241 | 2019-04-03 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | Right | At least one indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 |
195247 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-05-31 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% |
195248 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-07-05 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50% |
195249 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-08-05 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50% |
195250 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-09-05 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% |
195251 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-10-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% |
195252 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-11-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% |
195253 | 2019-04-03 | 2019-12-05 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% |
195254 | 2019-04-03 | 2020-01-05 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50% |
195255 | 2019-04-03 | 2020-02-05 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for December 2019 to exceed 50% |
195273 | 2019-04-06 | 2019-04-13 | notsonewuser | 1 | Wrong | I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-06). |
195284 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | Wrong | A whistleblower claims that the US-Mexico border crossing statistics under the Trump administration are not accurate |
195285 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting] Cody Garbrandt to fight again before 2019 EOY |
195286 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Fighting] Xiong Jingnan to be ONE strawweight champion at 2019 EOY |
195287 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Fighting] Angela Lee to be ONE atomweight champion at 2019 EOY |
195288 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting] Bibiano Fernandes to be ONE bantamweight champion at 2019 EOY |
195289 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting] Shinya Aoki to be ONE lightweight champion at 2019 EOY |
195290 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting] Zebaztian Kadestam to be ONE welterweight champion at 2019 EOY |
195291 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting] Aung La Nsang to be ONE champion in at least one weight class at 2019 EOY |
195292 | 2019-04-10 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting] Brandon Vera to be ONE heavyweight champion at 2019 EOY |
195297 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Daenerys Targaryen |
195298 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Cersei Lannister |
195299 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Jon Snow |
195300 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Brienne of Tarth |
195301 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Samwell Tarly |
195302 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Bran Stark |
195303 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Gilly |
195304 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Tormund Giantsbane |
195305 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Sansa Stark |
195306 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Arya Stark |
195307 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Varys |
195308 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Tyrion Lannister |
195309 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Jaime Lannister |
195310 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Davos Seaworth |
195311 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Theon Greyjoy |
195312 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Missandei |
195313 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Sandor "The Hound" Clegane |
195314 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Bronn |
195315 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Gendry |
195316 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Jorah Mormont |
195317 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Gregor "The Mountain" Clegane |
195318 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Qyburn |
195319 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Yara Greyjoy |
195320 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Petyr Baelish/Littlefinger |
195321 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Withdrawn | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] JS/DT's child |
195322 | 2019-04-10 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Melisandre |
195329 | 2019-04-11 | 2019-05-20 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Game of Thrones] Viserion the ice dragon to revert to Daenerys Targaryen's control at least once by the end of the TV series |
195331 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Daniel Cormier is UFC heavyweight champion |
195332 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Jon Jones is UFC light heavyweight champion |
195333 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Robert Whittaker is UFC middleweight champion |
195334 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Kamaru Usman is UFC welterweight champion |
195335 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Khabib Nurmagomedov is UFC lightweight champion |
195336 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Max Holloway is UFC featherweight champion |
195337 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Marlon Moraes is UFC bantamweight champion |
195338 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Henry Cejudo is UFC flyweight champion |
195339 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Amanda Nunes is UFC featherweight champion |
195340 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Amanda Nunes is UFC bantamweight champion |
195341 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Valentina Shevchenko is UFC flyweight champion |
195342 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Rose Namajunas is UFC strawweight champion |
195343 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Cody Garbrandt is UFC bantamweight champion |
195344 | 2019-04-11 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Dominick Cruz is UFC bantamweight champion |
195345 | 2019-04-12 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 4 | Wrong | At least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 |
195346 | 2019-04-12 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Fighting] Tito Ortiz to fight in 2019 |
195409 | 2019-04-12 | 2019-04-28 | Cato | 1 | Wrong | [Fighting] John Lineker to beat Cory Sandhagen at UFC on ESPN 3 |
195410 | 2019-04-12 | 2019-04-28 | Cato | 1 | Right | [Fighting] Jim Miller to beat Jason Gonzalez at UFC on ESPN 3 |
195411 | 2019-04-12 | 2019-08-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate |
195415 | 2019-04-12 | 2025-01-20 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | | Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency |
195416 | 2019-04-12 | 2020-11-20 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 12 | Wrong | Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election |
195423 | 2019-04-14 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | Joe Rogan to announce departure from UFC commentary by 2019 EOY |
195434 | 2019-04-16 | 2020-08-27 | Cato | 11 | | [US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary |
195435 | 2019-04-16 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Fighting] Colby Covington to have a title fight in 2019 |
195438 | 2019-04-16 | 2050-01-01 | AlexLamson | 5 | | There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & "clean meat" by 2050 |
195439 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Joanne Calderwood to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195440 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Liz Carmouche to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195441 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Jessica Eye to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195442 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Chris Cyborg to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195443 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Sijara Eubanks to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195444 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Katlyn Chookagian to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195445 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Germaine de Randamie to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195446 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Holly Holm to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195447 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Ketlen Vieira to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195448 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Raquel Pennington to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195449 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Cat Zingano to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195450 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Fighting] Joanna Jedrzejczyk to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195451 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Michelle Waterson to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195452 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Fighting] Weili Zhang to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195453 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Claudia Gadelha to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195454 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Nina Ansaroff to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195455 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Tatiana Suarez to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195456 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting] Jessica Andrade to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195457 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Fighting] Stipe Miocic to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195458 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Francis Ngannou to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195459 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Junior dos Santos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195460 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Curtis Blaydes to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195461 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Alistair Overeem to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195462 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting] Daniel Cormier to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195463 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Derrick Lewis to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195464 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Alexander Gustafsson to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195465 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Thiago Santos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195466 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Anthony Smith to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195467 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Dominick Reyes to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195468 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Yoel Romero to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195469 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Luke Rockhold to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195470 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Jacare Souza to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195471 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Kelvin Gastelum to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195472 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Fighting] Israel Adesanya to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195473 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting] Tyron Woodley to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195474 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Fighting] Colby Covington to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195475 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Rafael Dos Anjos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195476 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Fighting] Jorge Masvidal to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195477 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Ben Askren to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195478 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Dustin Poirier to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195479 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Dominick Cruz to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195480 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195481 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Fighting] Tony Ferguson to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195482 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Renato Moicano to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195483 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Pedro Munhoz to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195484 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Fighting] Aljamain Sterling to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195485 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Fighting] Alexander Volkanovski to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195486 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Frankie Edgar to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195487 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Raphael Assunção to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195488 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Brian Ortega to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195489 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] José Aldo to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195490 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Justin Gaethje to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195491 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Jussier Formiga to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195492 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Deiveson Figueiredo to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195493 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Wilson Reis to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195494 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Fighting] Joseph Benavidez to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195495 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Alexandre Pantoja to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195496 | 2019-04-17 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Tim Elliott to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY |
195502 | 2019-04-22 | 2019-05-05 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Arjan Bhullar to beat Juan Adams |
195503 | 2019-04-22 | 2019-05-05 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Matt Sayles to beat Kyle Nelson |
195504 | 2019-04-22 | 2019-12-31 | 6thNapoleon | 5 | Wrong | The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election |
195511 | 2019-04-25 | 2020-04-25 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Libya: As of 2020-04-25] US government to recognize the Government of National Accord |
195512 | 2019-04-25 | 2020-04-25 | Cato | 7 | Right | [Libya: As of 2020-04-25] EU to recognize the Government of National Accord |
195554 | 2019-04-26 | 2019-07-26 | Cato | 13 | Wrong | [US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day |
195555 | 2019-04-26 | 2019-07-26 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day |
195556 | 2019-04-26 | 2019-07-26 | Cato | 6 | Right | [US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day |
195557 | 2019-04-26 | 2019-07-26 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 5 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day |
195571 | 2019-04-26 | 2019-07-17 | Cato | 3 | Right | The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a first-time champion |
195572 | 2019-04-26 | 2019-07-17 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a US citizen |
195577 | 2019-04-27 | 2025-04-28 | deleteyourbrain | 4 | | gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them. |
195578 | 2019-04-28 | 2025-04-29 | deleteyourbrain | 3 | Withdrawn | Gwern Branwen is going to have a menage a trois with Issa Rice and Vipul Naik and he is going to write an article about his experience including ggplot2 graphs. |
195579 | 2019-04-28 | 2025-04-29 | deleteyourbrain | 3 | | Gwern is still living with his relatives. |
195580 | 2019-04-29 | 2025-04-28 | deleteyourbrain | 3 | Withdrawn | E. Yudkowsky will undergo "endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty". Despite the surgery he will gain weight. Gwern will advise him to try a kettlebell workout. |
195581 | 2019-04-29 | 2025-04-28 | deleteyourbrain | 4 | Withdrawn | Scott Alexander will be arrested by the FBI, because of his spiral (NAMBLA) medallion. However, gwern will smuggle in equipment to his prison cell and he will escape. In the end they will marry. |
195582 | 2019-04-29 | 2025-04-28 | deleteyourbrain | 3 | | E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern. |
195585 | 2019-04-29 | 2025-04-28 | deleteyourbrain | 4 | | Gwern is Jim Babcock. |
195586 | 2019-04-29 | 2025-04-28 | deleteyourbrain | 3 | Withdrawn | Gwern Branwen will overdose on mead and dark choclate. |
195616 | 2019-05-02 | 2019-05-02 | deleteyourbrain | 1 | Right | I will not masturbate for 1 day. |
195618 | 2019-05-02 | 2019-05-03 | deleteyourbrain | 2 | Right | I will not masturbate for 2 days. |
195619 | 2019-05-02 | 2019-06-02 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the intro by June 1st |
195620 | 2019-05-02 | 2019-06-02 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the table by June 1st |
195621 | 2019-05-02 | 2019-06-02 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the summary by June 1st |
195622 | 2019-05-02 | 2019-06-02 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] next steps by June 1st |
195669 | 2019-05-05 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 14 | Wrong | [US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public |
195670 | 2019-05-05 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 13 | Wrong | [US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate |
195671 | 2019-05-05 | 2020-11-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 5 | | Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020 |
195672 | 2019-05-05 | 2019-05-12 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Fighting] Jose Aldo to beat Alex Volkanovski at UFC 237 |
195673 | 2019-05-05 | 2019-05-11 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Fighting] Douglas Lima to beat Michael Page at Bellator 221 |
195681 | 2019-05-06 | 2019-05-21 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen to kill Jon Snow |
195684 | 2019-05-08 | 2019-05-09 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | Right | House Judiciary Committee votes to hold William Barr in contempt of congress |
195734 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the KMT |
195735 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 7 | Right | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) |
195736 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] William Lai (賴淸德) |
195737 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang Ya-chung (張亞中) |
195738 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) |
195739 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Eric Chu (朱立倫) |
195740 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Terry Gou (郭台銘) |
195741 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Wang Jyn-pyng (王金平) |
195742 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] James Soong (宋楚瑜) |
195743 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-01-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang San-cheng (張善政) |
195744 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-06-12 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 |
195745 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-07-14 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of July 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of June 2019 |
195746 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-08-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019 |
195747 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019 |
195748 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-10-14 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 |
195749 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-12-14 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019 |
195750 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-12-14 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019 |
195751 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-02-14 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Commodities] As of January 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of December 2019 |
195752 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-03-14 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of February 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of January 2020 |
195753 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-03-14 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020 |
195754 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-04-14 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of April 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of March 2020 |
195755 | 2019-05-10 | 2020-05-14 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Commodities] As of May 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of April 2020 |
195756 | 2019-05-10 | 2019-08-10 | minerjamon | 5 | Wrong | The predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later). |
195757 | 2019-05-13 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12 |
195762 | 2019-05-13 | 2020-06-01 | Cato | 19 | Wrong | US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM |
195763 | 2019-05-13 | 2019-06-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 |
195764 | 2019-05-13 | 2019-07-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [US-China] Xi and Trump to meet during June 2019 G20 meeting in Japan |
195765 | 2019-05-13 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Fighting] Robert Whittaker to fight Israel Adesanya in 2019 |
195774 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-07-10 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 |
195775 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-08-10 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 |
195776 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-08-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 |
195777 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-09-10 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 |
195778 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-09-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018 |
195779 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-10-10 | Cato | 3 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018 |
195780 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-10-10 | Cato | 3 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2019 |
195781 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-11-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018 |
195782 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-11-10 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 |
195783 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-12-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019 |
195784 | 2019-05-14 | 2019-12-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018 |
195785 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-01-10 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2019 |
195786 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-01-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2018 |
195787 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-02-10 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2019 |
195788 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-02-10 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2019 |
195789 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-03-10 | Cato | 3 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2020 |
195790 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-03-10 | Cato | 3 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2019 |
195791 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-04-10 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2020 |
195792 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-04-10 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2019 |
195793 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-05-10 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2020 |
195794 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-05-10 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2019 |
195795 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-06-10 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 |
195796 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-06-10 | Cato | 4 | Right | [US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2020 |
195797 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 12 | Right | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden |
195798 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 5 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders |
195799 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 5 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris |
195800 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 5 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren |
195801 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 4 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg |
195802 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 4 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke |
195803 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker |
195804 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar |
195805 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Julián Castro |
195806 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kirsten Gillibrand |
195807 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 6 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard |
195808 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 5 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang |
195809 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 3 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Jay Inslee |
195810 | 2019-05-14 | 2020-07-16 | amadeu | 4 | Wrong | [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other |
195820 | 2019-05-16 | 2020-06-14 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd |
195821 | 2019-05-16 | 2020-06-14 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd |
195822 | 2019-05-16 | 2020-06-14 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd |
195828 | 2019-05-17 | 2025-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | | The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey |
195831 | 2019-05-18 | 2020-05-01 | quanticle | 2 | Right | Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. |
195832 | 2019-05-18 | 2019-06-30 | amadeu | 1 | Right | Austria's vice chancellor to resign by June 30 |
195833 | 2019-05-18 | 2025-01-01 | quanticle | 6 | | /r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit |
195837 | 2019-05-19 | 2019-05-22 | enolan | 1 | Wrong | [We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo |
195838 | 2019-05-19 | 2019-05-22 | enolan | 1 | Wrong | [We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo |
195839 | 2019-05-19 | 2019-05-22 | enolan | 1 | Wrong | [We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo |
195840 | 2019-05-19 | 2022-05-02 | separo | 1 | Withdrawn | Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued in 3 years. |
195841 | 2019-05-19 | 2023-05-02 | separo | 2 | Withdrawn | From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. |
195843 | 2019-05-19 | 2022-05-02 | separo | 2 | | Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 |
195844 | 2019-05-19 | 2023-05-02 | separo | 1 | | From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. |
195845 | 2019-05-19 | 2020-05-02 | separo | 10 | Wrong | Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 |
195846 | 2019-05-19 | 2019-09-29 | 6thNapoleon | 7 | Right | Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference |
195978 | 2019-05-22 | 2020-11-04 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | | At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election |
195979 | 2019-05-22 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | Wrong | IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress |
195982 | 2019-05-22 | 2019-05-26 | stepan | 1 | Wrong | Russia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship |
196011 | 2019-05-27 | 2019-09-01 | estebanf2019 | 1 | | Para el mes 10 de 2019 habre terminado la certificacion de frontend developer de freecodecamp. |
196012 | 2019-05-28 | 2019-10-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 |
196039 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-08-31 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 |
196040 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-08-31 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 |
196041 | 2019-05-30 | 2020-05-10 | Cato | 20 | Right | [US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 |
196042 | 2019-05-30 | 2020-06-25 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for May 2020 to exceed 110 |
196043 | 2019-05-30 | 2020-05-25 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for April 2020 to exceed 110 |
196044 | 2019-05-30 | 2020-04-25 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for March 2020 to exceed 110 |
196045 | 2019-05-30 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 6 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for February 2020 to exceed 110 |
196046 | 2019-05-30 | 2020-02-25 | Cato | 6 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for January 2020 to exceed 110 |
196047 | 2019-05-30 | 2020-01-25 | Cato | 4 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for December 2019 to exceed 110 |
196048 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-12-25 | Cato | 4 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for November 2019 to exceed 110 |
196049 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-11-25 | Cato | 3 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for October 2019 to exceed 110 |
196050 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-10-25 | Cato | 3 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for September 2019 to exceed 110 |
196051 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-09-25 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for August 2019 to exceed 110 |
196052 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-08-25 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for July 2019 to exceed 110 |
196053 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-07-25 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for June 2019 to exceed 110 |
196054 | 2019-05-30 | 2019-06-18 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for May 2019 to exceed 110 |
196069 | 2019-06-02 | 2020-11-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 5 | | Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020 |
196070 | 2019-06-02 | 2022-05-06 | 6thNapoleon | 6 | Wrong | The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election |
196071 | 2019-06-02 | 2019-12-31 | zilong | 8 | Right | US-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019. |
196094 | 2019-06-03 | 2019-06-04 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal, Productivity - I complete Art of Tidying discarding before deadline. |
196104 | 2019-06-05 | 2020-11-04 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 9 | | By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published |
196105 | 2019-06-05 | 2020-11-04 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 26 | | Trump wins a second term in office |
196180 | 2019-06-18 | 2019-12-31 | objclone | 3 | Right | Fed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019 |
196181 | 2019-06-18 | 2019-07-31 | objclone | 3 | Right | Fed cut rate at least 25bps in July |
196183 | 2019-06-20 | 2019-12-31 | objclone | 5 | Right | SPY return positive in year 2019 |
196184 | 2019-06-20 | 2019-12-31 | objclone | 3 | Right | Gold hit above $1500/oz at least once in 2019 |
196187 | 2019-06-24 | 2020-01-01 | jamesrom | 22 | Wrong | Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 |
196231 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the next steps by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196232 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [REDACTED PROJECT will publish] supplemental work started in 2018 by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196233 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [REDACTED PROJECT will publish] work leading to the creation (if not completion) of an outside study by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196234 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Right | [REDACTED PROJECT C will] complete a cost-effectiveness analysis by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196235 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Withdrawn | [REDACTED PROJECT C will] publish (at least on demand) by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196236 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Right | [REDACTED PROJECT D will] publish by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196237 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 1] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196238 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 2] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196239 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 3] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196240 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-10-01 | marcus_a_davis | 1 | Wrong | [REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) |
196260 | 2019-07-08 | 2019-12-12 | skateboard34 | 2 | Right | Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 Driver's Championship 2019. |
196261 | 2019-07-08 | 2025-01-01 | Antbak | 4 | | Person to walk on the moon by 2025 |
196262 | 2019-07-08 | 2030-01-01 | Antbak | 5 | | Person to walk on the moon by 2030 |
196265 | 2019-07-09 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 20 | | [US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women |
196279 | 2019-07-11 | 2019-10-11 | Michael Dickens | 2 | | AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period |
196283 | 2019-07-12 | 2020-03-18 | SeriousPod | 5 | Wrong | Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee |
196627 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 3 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or "Chinese Taipei") to win at least one medal |
196628 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 3 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting |
196629 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee |
196630 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 3 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee |
196631 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee |
196632 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 3 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee |
196633 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA |
196634 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 3 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee |
196635 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA |
196636 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee |
196637 | 2019-07-17 | 2020-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA |
196667 | 2019-07-19 | 2024-07-19 | two2thehead | 2 | | [Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years |
196668 | 2019-07-19 | 2024-07-19 | two2thehead | 4 | | [Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years |
196669 | 2019-07-19 | 2027-01-01 | wolfish_wrath | 1 | | I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 |
196684 | 2019-07-20 | 2027-01-01 | wolfish_wrath | 2 | | I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 |
196687 | 2019-07-20 | 2019-07-27 | enolan | 2 | Wrong | The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week |
196688 | 2019-07-20 | 2027-01-01 | wolfish_wrath | 1 | Right | I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) |
196695 | 2019-07-22 | 2024-07-22 | two2thehead | 4 | | [Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years |
196700 | 2019-07-22 | 2025-01-01 | wolfish_wrath | 1 | | I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025 |
196717 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 20 | Wrong | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] "no-deal Brexit" to have happened |
196718 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 12 | Wrong | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] "Brexit with a deal" to have happened |
196719 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended |
196720 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held |
196721 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced |
196722 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election |
196723 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have gained seats in general election |
196724 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have gained seats in general election |
196725 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 5 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Democratic Unionists to have gained seats in general election |
196726 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 5 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Scottish National Party to have gained seats in general election |
196727 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have gained seats in general election |
196728 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Independent Group for Change to have gained seats in general election |
196729 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have won a majority in general election |
196730 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have won a majority in general election |
196731 | 2019-07-24 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 4 | Withdrawn | [Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have won a majority in general election |
196732 | 2019-07-24 | 2020-07-24 | Cato | 7 | | [Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 |
196733 | 2019-07-24 | 2020-07-24 | Cato | 6 | | [Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23 |
196734 | 2019-07-24 | 2020-01-24 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 |
196735 | 2019-07-24 | 2023-01-01 | wolfish_wrath | 3 | | I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 |
196736 | 2019-07-24 | 2020-07-17 | Jackzilla | 2 | | The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') |
196761 | 2019-07-26 | 2020-01-26 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 |
196781 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5% |
196782 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9% |
196783 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15% |
196786 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7 |
196787 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6 |
196788 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5 |
196789 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 6 | Right | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4 |
196790 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3 |
196791 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2 |
196792 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 |
196793 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 |
196794 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 |
196795 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 |
196796 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 |
196797 | 2019-07-29 | 2019-09-29 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7 |
196802 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-12-22 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Fighting] Rico Verhoeven and Badr Hari to fight as scheduled on 2019-12-21 |
196803 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-12-22 | Cato | 2 | Right | [Fighting] Rico Verhoeven to beat Badr Hari in their December 2019 fight |
196804 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 |
196805 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 |
196806 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 |
196807 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 |
196808 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 |
196809 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 |
196810 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 |
196811 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 |
196812 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 |
196813 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 |
196814 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 |
196815 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 |
196816 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 |
196817 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17 |
196818 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18 |
196819 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19 |
196820 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-09-14 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 |
196844 | 2019-08-01 | 2020-08-01 | Cato | 6 | | Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 |
196845 | 2019-08-01 | 2020-08-01 | Cato | 6 | | Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 |
196849 | 2019-08-02 | 2019-12-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 |
196850 | 2019-08-02 | 2019-12-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 |
196851 | 2019-08-02 | 2019-12-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 |
196852 | 2019-08-02 | 2019-12-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 |
196853 | 2019-08-02 | 2019-12-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 |
196854 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 |
196855 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 |
196856 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Right | [USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 |
196857 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 |
196858 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 |
196859 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 |
196860 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-03-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 |
196861 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-03-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 |
196862 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-03-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 |
196863 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-03-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 |
196864 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-03-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 |
196865 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-03-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 |
196866 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 |
196867 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 |
196868 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 |
196869 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 |
196870 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 |
196871 | 2019-08-02 | 2020-02-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | [USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 |
196872 | 2019-08-02 | 2019-11-01 | Cato | 12 | Wrong | [Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM |
196920 | 2019-08-11 | 2020-07-01 | lettergram | 2 | Right | AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation |
196921 | 2019-08-12 | 2022-01-01 | bobpage | 12 | | Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 |
196930 | 2019-08-15 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 5 | Right | Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY |
196955 | 2019-08-23 | 2020-08-16 | predoindk | 5 | | Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry |
196956 | 2019-08-23 | 2020-08-16 | predoindk | 4 | | There'll be a global average "dip" in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears |
196957 | 2019-08-23 | 2024-08-16 | predoindk | 3 | | The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse |
196958 | 2019-08-23 | 2025-08-16 | predoindk | 5 | | Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025 |
196962 | 2019-08-25 | 2025-12-31 | predoindk | 5 | | At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability. |
196963 | 2019-08-25 | 2030-12-31 | predoindk | 5 | | At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030 |
196964 | 2019-08-25 | 2021-12-31 | predoindk | 3 | | Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 |
196974 | 2019-08-26 | 2019-08-26 | wizzwizz4 | 2 | Wrong | Person sitting next to me will still be staring at phone in half an hour. |
196980 | 2019-08-29 | 3000-01-01 | pranomostro | 7 | | I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. |
196981 | 2019-08-29 | 2100-01-01 | pranomostro | 5 | | The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years. |
196982 | 2019-08-29 | 2100-01-01 | pranomostro | 6 | | The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020. |
196983 | 2019-08-29 | 2040-01-01 | pranomostro | 3 | | There will be a crocs movie before 2040. |
196984 | 2019-08-31 | 2019-09-02 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Withdrawn | The Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, September 1 2019. |
196985 | 2019-08-31 | 2019-09-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Wrong | The Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, August 31 2019. |
197035 | 2019-09-15 | 2029-09-15 | krazemon | 3 | | Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. |
197036 | 2019-09-15 | 2039-09-15 | krazemon | 3 | | Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years. |
197057 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h30m and 4h45m |
197058 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h45m and 5h00m |
197059 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h00m and 5h15m |
197060 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h15m and 5h30m |
197061 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h30m and 5h45m |
197062 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h45m and 6h00m |
197063 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Wrong | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 6h00m and 6h15m |
197064 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-24 | WilliamKiely | 1 | Right | [On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] More than 6h15m |
197094 | 2019-09-18 | 2019-09-18 | batemancapital | 1 | Right | Federal Reserve cuts rate by 25bps on September FOMC meeting |
197097 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-05 | Cato | 5 | Right | [Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] to be canceled/banned |
197098 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Joe Biden |
197099 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197100 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197101 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197102 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197103 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 8 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197104 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker |
197105 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197106 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Julian Castro |
197107 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197108 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-04 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] any other candidate |
197109 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Joe Biden |
197110 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197111 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 8 | Right | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197112 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197113 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197114 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197115 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Cory Booker |
197116 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197117 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Julian Castro |
197118 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197119 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-12 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] any other candidate |
197120 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Joe Biden |
197121 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197122 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 11 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197123 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197124 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197125 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197126 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Cory Booker |
197127 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197128 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Julian Castro |
197129 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197130 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-23 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] any other candidate |
197131 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden |
197132 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197133 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197134 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197135 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197136 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197137 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker |
197138 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197139 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro |
197140 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197141 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-02 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] any other candidate |
197142 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 11 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Joe Biden |
197143 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197144 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197145 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197146 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197147 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197148 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Cory Booker |
197149 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197150 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197151 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Julian Castro |
197152 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-11 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] any other candidate |
197153 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Joe Biden |
197154 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197155 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197156 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197157 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197158 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197159 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Cory Booker |
197160 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197161 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Julian Castro |
197162 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197163 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-18 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] any other candidate |
197164 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Joe Biden |
197165 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197166 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197167 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197168 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197169 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197170 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Cory Booker |
197171 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197172 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197173 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Julian Castro |
197174 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-25 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] any other candidate |
197175 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Joe Biden |
197176 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197177 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197178 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197179 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197180 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197181 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Cory Booker |
197182 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197183 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Julian Castro |
197184 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197185 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-05 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] any other candidate |
197186 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Joe Biden |
197187 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197188 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197189 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197190 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197191 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197192 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Cory Booker |
197193 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197194 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Julian Castro |
197195 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197196 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-08 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] any other candidate |
197197 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Joe Biden |
197198 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 11 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197199 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 12 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197200 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 11 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197201 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 9 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197202 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 11 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197203 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 3 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Cory Booker |
197204 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 3 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197205 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 3 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Julian Castro |
197206 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 3 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197207 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-05 | Cato | 9 | | [US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] any other candidate |
197208 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 11 | Right | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Joe Biden |
197209 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197210 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197211 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197212 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197213 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197214 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Cory Booker |
197215 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197216 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Julian Castro |
197217 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197218 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-29 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] any other candidate |
197219 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Joe Biden |
197220 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197221 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197222 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197223 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197224 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197225 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Cory Booker |
197226 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197227 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Julian Castro |
197228 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197229 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-03 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] any other candidate |
197230 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 9 | Right | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden |
197231 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197232 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197233 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197234 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197235 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197236 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker |
197237 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197238 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro |
197239 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197240 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-13 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] any other candidate |
197241 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 10 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Joe Biden |
197242 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197243 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197244 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197245 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197246 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197247 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Cory Booker |
197248 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197249 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Julian Castro |
197250 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197251 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-05-20 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] any other candidate |
197252 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 9 | Right | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Joe Biden |
197253 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197254 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197255 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197256 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197257 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197258 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Cory Booker |
197259 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197260 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Julian Castro |
197261 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197262 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-06-03 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] any other candidate |
197263 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | Chuukese independence referendum to be held in March 2020 |
197264 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-07-06 | Cato | 3 | Right | Dominican Republican presidential election to return a winner in the first round |
197265 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-10-26 | Cato | 4 | | LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election |
197266 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-16 | Cato | 4 | Right | Politics: South Korea's Democratic Party (Minjoo) to retain its plurality in the National Assembly after 2020 election |
197267 | 2019-09-18 | 2021-08-09 | Cato | 3 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union |
197268 | 2019-09-18 | 2021-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States |
197269 | 2019-09-18 | 2021-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France |
197270 | 2019-09-18 | 2021-08-09 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba |
197271 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-07 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in January 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) |
197272 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-07 | Cato | 3 | Right | WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in February 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) |
197273 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-04-07 | Cato | 3 | Right | WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in March 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) |
197283 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 12 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren |
197284 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 13 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Bernie Sanders |
197285 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 12 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Andrew Yang |
197286 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Kamala Harris |
197287 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 11 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg |
197288 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Cory Booker |
197289 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar |
197290 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke |
197291 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro |
197292 | 2019-09-18 | 2020-03-04 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] any other candidate |
197315 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-03-19 | Cato | 5 | Right | [US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate |
197316 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-03-19 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged |
197317 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-01-30 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate |
197318 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-01-30 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate |
197319 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-01-30 | Cato | 2 | Right | [US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged |
197320 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-04-30 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate |
197321 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-04-30 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate |
197322 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-04-30 | Cato | 4 | Right | [US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged |
197323 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-09-17 | Cato | 6 | | [US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate |
197324 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-09-17 | Cato | 6 | | [US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate |
197325 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-09-17 | Cato | 6 | | [US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged |
197326 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-07-30 | Cato | 7 | | [US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate |
197327 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-07-30 | Cato | 7 | | [US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate |
197328 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-07-30 | Cato | 6 | | [US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged |
197329 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-06-11 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate |
197330 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-06-11 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate |
197331 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-06-11 | Cato | 8 | Right | [US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged |
197332 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-08-27 | Cato | 8 | | US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence |
197339 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-10-22 | Cato | 6 | | US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. |
197343 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-10-27 | Cato | 8 | | [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 |
197344 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-10-27 | Cato | 8 | | [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 |
197345 | 2019-09-19 | 2020-10-27 | Cato | 8 | | [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 |
197358 | 2019-09-19 | 2024-03-16 | wolfish_wrath | 2 | | [Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) |
197359 | 2019-09-19 | 2024-03-16 | wolfish_wrath | 2 | | [Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs |
197366 | 2019-09-22 | 2020-09-22 | batemancapital | 3 | | Scott Galloway: SoftBank's Vision Fund will be shuttered within 12 months |
197368 | 2019-09-22 | 2019-11-21 | batemancapital | 2 | Right | Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days |
197371 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 |
197372 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 |
197373 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 |
197374 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 |
197375 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 |
197376 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 |
197377 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 8 | Right | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 |
197378 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 |
197379 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 |
197380 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-11-30 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more |
197381 | 2019-09-24 | 2020-03-15 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU |
197382 | 2019-09-24 | 2020-03-15 | Cato | 9 | Withdrawn | [Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK still in EU |
197383 | 2019-09-24 | 2020-03-15 | Cato | 8 | Withdrawn | [Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] no-deal Brexit having taken place |
197384 | 2019-09-24 | 2020-03-15 | Cato | 8 | Withdrawn | [Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] Brexit-with-a-deal having taken place |
197392 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 7 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11 |
197393 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 11 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 |
197394 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 10 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 |
197395 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 8 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 |
197396 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 9 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 |
197397 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 10 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 |
197398 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 10 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 |
197399 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 9 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 |
197400 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 8 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 |
197401 | 2019-09-26 | 2020-11-04 | Cato | 8 | | [US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more |
197402 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | Team Liquid will make it out of group stage. (LoL). |
197403 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | G2 will make it out of group stage. (LoL). |
197404 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | Fnatic will make it out of group stage. (LoL). |
197405 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | FunPlus Phoenix will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197406 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | SKT will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197407 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | RNG will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197408 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | C9 will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197409 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | Griffin will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197410 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | J-Team will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197411 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | Gigabyte Marines will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197412 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Right | IG will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197413 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | PseudonymousUser | 1 | Wrong | AHQ will make it out of groups. (LoL). |
197416 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] G2. |
197417 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Griffin. |
197418 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] C9. |
197419 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] FunPlus Phoenix. |
197420 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] J-Team. |
197421 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Gigabyte Marines. |
197422 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] SKT. |
197423 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Fnatic. |
197424 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] RNG. |
197425 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Team Liquid. |
197426 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] AHQ. |
197427 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-10-12 | Air_Cat | 1 | Withdrawn | [The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Invictus Gaming. |
197452 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American |
197453 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American |
197454 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French |
197455 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British |
197456 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish |
197457 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian |
197458 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese |
197459 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 3 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese |
197460 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian |
197461 | 2019-09-27 | 2020-10-20 | Cato | 2 | | [2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian |
197495 | 2019-09-29 | 2024-09-29 | two2thehead | 3 | | [Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] arrested within five (5) years |
197506 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Right | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [12, 40] |
197507 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Right | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [16, 40] |
197508 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Right | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [20, 40] |
197509 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Wrong | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [24, 40] |
197510 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Wrong | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [28, 40] |
197511 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Wrong | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [32, 40] |
197512 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Wrong | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [35, 40] |
197513 | 2019-10-01 | 2019-10-01 | Air_Cat | 1 | Wrong | [The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [38, 40] |
197564 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 9 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) |
197565 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 11 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) |
197566 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 11 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) |
197567 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 10 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) |
197568 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 10 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) |
197569 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 10 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) |
197570 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 10 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) |
197571 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 11 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) |
197572 | 2019-10-11 | 2020-07-31 | Cato | 11 | | [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) |
197607 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | [SC2] Dark makes it out of Group A |
197608 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [SC2] ShoWTimE makes it out of Group A |
197609 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | [SC2] soO makes it out of Group A |
197610 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [SC2] SpeCial makes it out of Group A |
197611 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | [SC2] Maru makes it out of Group B |
197612 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [SC2] TIME makes it out of Group B |
197613 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [SC2] Stats makes it out of Group B |
197614 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | [SC2] Serral makes it out of Group B |
197615 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | [SC2] Classic makes it out of Group C |
197616 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [SC2] HeRoMaRinE makes it out of Group C |
197617 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [SC2] herO makes it out of Group C |
197618 | 2019-10-16 | 2019-11-01 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | [SC2] Reynor makes it out of Group C |
197638 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 3 | Right | [The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Joseph Saelee |
197639 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 3 | Wrong | [The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] someone who has never won a Classic Tetris World Championship before |
197640 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 3 | Wrong | [The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Greentea |
197641 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 1 | Wrong | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jonas Neubauer |
197642 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 1 | Right | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Joseph Saelee |
197643 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 1 | Right | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Greentea |
197644 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 1 | Right | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Koryan |
197645 | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 2 | Wrong | The lowest qualifying score for entry into the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be above 700000 points |
197646 | 2019-10-19 | 2020-07-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 11 | Right | The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 |
197647 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 1 | Wrong | [The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 8 |
197648 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 2 | Wrong | [The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 12 |
197649 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 1 | Wrong | [The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 15 |
197650 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-20 | deoh | 1 | Wrong | [The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 18 |
197651 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 1 | Right | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] DanQZ |
197652 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 2 | Wrong | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jani |
197653 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 1 | Wrong | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Svavar |
197654 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 1 | Wrong | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Harry Hong |
197655 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 2 | Right | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Batfoy |
197656 | 2019-10-19 | 2019-10-21 | deoh | 2 | Wrong | [One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Matt Buco |
197657 | 2019-10-20 | 2020-05-01 | krazemon | 8 | Wrong | Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). |
197677 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Justin Gaethje |
197678 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Nate Diaz |
197679 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Jorge Masvidal |
197680 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Khabib Numagomedov |
197681 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 2 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Tony Ferguson |
197682 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Frankie Edgar |
197683 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre |
197684 | 2019-10-25 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against someone else |
197697 | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Maru |
197698 | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Reynor |
197699 | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Rogue |
197700 | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Right | [Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Dark |
197701 | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Classic |
197702 | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [Winner of WCS Global Finals is] soO |
197703 | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-03 | Michael Dickens | 1 | Wrong | [Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Trap |
197710 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 |
197711 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 |
197712 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 10 | Right | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 |
197713 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 |
197714 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 10 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 |
197715 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 9 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 |
197716 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 8 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 |
197717 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 |
197718 | 2019-11-01 | 2019-12-20 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more |
197761 | 2019-11-11 | 2019-11-21 | MatrixJedi | 1 | Right | In ten days, we will still live on the farm. |
197764 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 4 | Withdrawn | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno |
197765 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 6 | Right | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE |
197766 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 6 | Wrong | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP |
197767 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 6 | Wrong | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos |
197768 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 4 | Wrong | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe...) |
197769 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 7 | Wrong | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE |
197770 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 6 | Right | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP e indepes |
197771 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 7 | Wrong | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes |
197772 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 5 | Wrong | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ |
197773 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 8 | | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año |
197774 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 7 | | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años |
197775 | 2019-11-12 | 2020-05-12 | sortega | 7 | | [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura |
197776 | 2019-11-12 | 2019-12-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | Wrong | Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. |
197798 | 2019-11-18 | 2020-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 2 | Wrong | PLA to use force against protesters in Hong Kong before 2020-01-01 |
197799 | 2019-11-18 | 2019-12-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 3 | Wrong | Vice President Mike Pence to make any public comment regarding the impeachment hearings |
197828 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 |
197829 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 7 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 11 to 20 |
197830 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30 |
197831 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 5 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40 |
197832 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 |
197833 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0 |
197834 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 |
197835 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 11 to 20 |
197836 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 21 to 30 |
197837 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 |
197838 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 |
197839 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 |
197840 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 |
197841 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 11 to 20 |
197842 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30 |
197843 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 |
197844 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51 |
197845 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0 |
197846 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 7 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 |
197847 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 7 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20 |
197848 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 5 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 21 to 30 |
197849 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 31 to 40 |
197850 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51 |
197851 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 |
197852 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 |
197853 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20 |
197854 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 |
197855 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 |
197856 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 3 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 |
197857 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 11 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 |
197858 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 8 | | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 |
197859 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 6 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 |
197860 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 |
197861 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 |
197862 | 2019-11-22 | 2020-08-21 | Cato | 4 | Wrong | [US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 |
197934 | 2019-12-12 | 2025-01-01 | skateboard34 | 4 | | Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025. |
197937 | 2019-12-12 | 2020-02-24 | qznc | 4 | Right | AfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election |
197964 | 2019-12-23 | 2020-12-31 | batemancapital | 2 | | Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020 |
197965 | 2019-12-23 | 2020-07-01 | tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com | 18 | | Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination |
197966 | 2019-12-23 | 2020-02-15 | tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com | 4 | Wrong | The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl |
197967 | 2019-12-23 | 2020-11-04 | tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com | 21 | | Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected |
197979 | 2019-12-29 | 2021-12-25 | qznc | 2 | | Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 |
197980 | 2019-12-29 | 2020-12-25 | qznc | 2 | | Dune movie is released in December 2020 |
197981 | 2019-12-29 | 2020-12-25 | qznc | 2 | | Uncharted movie is released in December 2020 |
197982 | 2019-12-29 | 2021-06-30 | qznc | 2 | | Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 |
197983 | 2019-12-29 | 2021-12-31 | qznc | 2 | | Diablo IV is released in 2021 |
197984 | 2019-12-29 | 2020-12-25 | qznc | 2 | | Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020 |
197985 | 2019-12-29 | 2020-02-01 | qznc | 1 | Wrong | [Vikings] Lagertha survives season 6 |
197986 | 2019-12-29 | 2020-02-01 | qznc | 1 | Wrong | [Vikings] Bjorn is elected king of all Norway |
197987 | 2019-12-29 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 1 | | The transition from the XOF franc to the eco will be complete in all countries currently using XOF. |
197990 | 2019-12-30 | 2024-06-01 | optimaton | 2 | | BJP will win even the 2024 elections |
198057 | 2020-01-01 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) |
198069 | 2020-01-01 | 2020-05-31 | Paul.David.Carr | 1 | Wrong | Liverpool will win the treble in 2020: FA Cup, Premier League, Champions League |
198070 | 2020-01-01 | 2024-12-31 | Paul.David.Carr | 4 | | Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. |
198071 | 2020-01-01 | 2020-03-31 | batemancapital | 2 | Wrong | 10Y Treasury yield goes above 2% in Q1 2020 |
198072 | 2020-01-01 | 2020-12-31 | batemancapital | 2 | | Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative |
198075 | 2020-01-01 | 2020-12-31 | batemancapital | 2 | | S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500 |
198076 | 2020-01-01 | 2024-12-31 | batemancapital | 3 | | U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025 |
198077 | 2020-01-01 | 2020-01-31 | batemancapital | 2 | Wrong | January 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money |
198078 | 2020-01-01 | 2020-04-30 | batemancapital | 6 | Wrong | April 2020 VIX call at 65 will be in the money |
198079 | 2020-01-01 | 2021-01-01 | waveman | 1 | | I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020 |
198081 | 2020-01-01 | 2022-07-01 | waveman | 1 | | I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 |
198102 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [The Economist predicts:] Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela |
198103 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 10 | | [The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 |
198104 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | [The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum |
198105 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics |
198106 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Right | [The Economist predicts:] Billie Eilish wins album of the year at the Grammys |
198107 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | Right | [The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars |
198108 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament |
198109 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics |
198110 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [The Economist predicts:] Sweden wins the Eurovision Song Contest |
198111 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries |
198112 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | [The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months |
198113 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 5 | | [The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down |
198114 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 5 | | [The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO |
198115 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [The Economist predicts:] Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA |
198116 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 6 | | [The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize |
198117 | 2020-01-02 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | [The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch |
198120 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-12-31 | qznc | 3 | | Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030 |
198121 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-12-31 | qznc | 2 | | Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years |
198122 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-12-31 | qznc | 8 | | Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 |
198123 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-12-31 | qznc | 3 | | Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years. |
198124 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-12-31 | qznc | 2 | | Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down |
198125 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-12-31 | qznc | 3 | | There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere |
198126 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. |
198127 | 2020-01-03 | 2031-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. |
198128 | 2020-01-03 | 2026-05-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | "We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025" |
198129 | 2020-01-03 | 2031-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030 |
198130 | 2020-01-03 | 2032-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were "popping up" around the USA. |
198131 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 8 | | Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars |
198132 | 2020-01-03 | 2030-06-30 | Bruno Parga | 5 | | As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line. |
198133 | 2020-01-04 | 2030-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country |
198134 | 2020-01-04 | 2030-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) |
198135 | 2020-01-04 | 2030-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion |
198136 | 2020-01-04 | 2030-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor |
198137 | 2020-01-04 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16 |
198138 | 2020-01-04 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16 |
198139 | 2020-01-04 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joined by at least one other state |
198140 | 2020-01-04 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joind by at least 4 other states |
198141 | 2020-01-04 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | [States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 229 electoral votes |
198142 | 2020-01-04 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | [States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes |
198143 | 2020-01-04 | 2021-01-01 | Bruno Parga | 3 | | The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers |
198148 | 2020-01-05 | 2030-01-01 | krazemon | 4 | | The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. |
198153 | 2020-01-07 | 2021-01-01 | Cato | 7 | | [Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 |
198154 | 2020-01-07 | 2020-10-01 | Cato | 7 | | [Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 |
198155 | 2020-01-07 | 2020-07-01 | Cato | 9 | Right | [Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 |
198156 | 2020-01-07 | 2020-04-01 | Cato | 4 | Right | [Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 |
198186 | 2020-01-11 | 2020-01-18 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal - My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-18 |
198187 | 2020-01-11 | 2020-01-26 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal - My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 |
198188 | 2020-01-11 | 2020-02-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal - I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01 |
198189 | 2020-01-11 | 2020-01-26 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal - I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25. |
198190 | 2020-01-11 | 2020-01-19 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Tech - Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18 |
198196 | 2020-01-15 | 2020-01-22 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament |
198197 | 2020-01-15 | 2020-01-15 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament tonight |
198198 | 2020-01-15 | 2020-12-31 | peter_hurford | 3 | | Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 |
198204 | 2020-01-15 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 3 | | Trump meets with Kim in 2020 |
198205 | 2020-01-15 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 4 | | Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 |
198206 | 2020-01-15 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 3 | | Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 |
198211 | 2020-01-15 | 2020-07-15 | peter_hurford | 8 | | Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee |
198212 | 2020-01-15 | 2020-07-15 | peter_hurford | 10 | | Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee |
198213 | 2020-01-15 | 2020-07-15 | peter_hurford | 5 | | The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg |
198220 | 2020-01-16 | 2021-01-01 | sty.silver | 1 | | [Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time) |
198221 | 2020-01-16 | 2021-01-01 | sty.silver | 1 | | [Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now. |
198222 | 2020-01-16 | 2021-05-01 | sty.silver | 1 | Right | [Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late |
198223 | 2020-01-16 | 2021-01-01 | sty.silver | 1 | | [Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020. |
198224 | 2020-01-16 | 2021-01-01 | sty.silver | 1 | | [Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62 |
198225 | 2020-01-16 | 2021-01-01 | sty.silver | 1 | | [Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions |
198228 | 2020-01-17 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 2 | | Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 |
198231 | 2020-01-18 | 2020-02-18 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Business, UK - Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. |
198232 | 2020-01-18 | 2020-02-02 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. |
198233 | 2020-01-18 | 2020-02-06 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Tech - Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. |
198234 | 2020-01-18 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 3 | Wrong | The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 |
198235 | 2020-01-18 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 2 | Withdrawn | Conditional on Trump’s impeachment trial having at least one witness give testimony, Hunter Biden will give testimony |
198236 | 2020-01-18 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 3 | | California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 |
198237 | 2020-01-18 | 2025-01-19 | sungk2048 | 3 | | [Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. |
198238 | 2020-01-18 | 2021-01-01 | sungk2048 | 1 | | [Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier |
198239 | 2020-01-18 | 2025-01-19 | sungk2048 | 7 | | Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***. |
198240 | 2020-01-18 | 2023-01-19 | sungk2048 | 1 | | [Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury) |
198243 | 2020-01-19 | 2020-01-27 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Personal, Productivity - I get through "Economic Implications Of Software Minds" by deadline. |
198257 | 2020-01-22 | 2021-01-01 | nortriptyline2 | 46 | Right | [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 |
198258 | 2020-01-22 | 2021-01-01 | nortriptyline2 | 42 | | [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million |
198259 | 2020-01-22 | 2021-01-01 | nortriptyline2 | 32 | | [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million |
198260 | 2020-01-22 | 2021-01-01 | nortriptyline2 | 34 | | [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million |
198261 | 2020-01-22 | 2021-01-01 | nortriptyline2 | 33 | | [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million |
198262 | 2020-01-22 | 2021-01-01 | nortriptyline2 | 27 | | [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million |
198271 | 2020-01-23 | 2021-01-01 | nortriptyline2 | 37 | Right | [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 |
198272 | 2020-01-23 | 2035-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 7 | | [Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 |
198273 | 2020-01-23 | 2035-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | | [Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 |
198274 | 2020-01-23 | 2035-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | | [Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 |
198275 | 2020-01-23 | 2020-02-28 | jbeshir | 13 | Right | Health, UK - News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. |
198279 | 2020-01-25 | 2020-03-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. |
198291 | 2020-02-01 | 2020-03-01 | jbeshir | 5 | Right | Health, UK - Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. |
198292 | 2020-02-01 | 2020-03-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Personal - My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. |
198293 | 2020-02-01 | 2020-02-10 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Personal - I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. |
198294 | 2020-02-01 | 2020-03-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal - I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline. |
198317 | 2020-02-08 | 2020-02-10 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Weather, UK - Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather |
198318 | 2020-02-08 | 2020-02-09 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Weather, UK - My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08 |
198332 | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-20 | jbeshir | 1 | Withdrawn | Politics, UK - Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. |
198333 | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-20 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Politics, UK - Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. |
198334 | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-20 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. |
198335 | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-20 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, UK - Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. |
198346 | 2020-02-14 | 2024-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 5 | | Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 |
198386 | 2020-02-21 | 2020-10-02 | Tumblewood | 2 | Wrong | [Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 |
198387 | 2020-02-21 | 2020-10-02 | Tumblewood | 2 | Wrong | [Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1 |
198388 | 2020-02-21 | 2020-10-02 | Tumblewood | 2 | Wrong | [Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1 |
198389 | 2020-02-21 | 2020-10-02 | Tumblewood | 2 | | [Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 |
198390 | 2020-02-21 | 2020-10-02 | Tumblewood | 2 | | [Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 |
198399 | 2020-02-22 | 2020-02-29 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Politics - Seven day "reduction in violence" starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. |
198400 | 2020-02-22 | 2020-04-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Right | Politics - Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. |
198401 | 2020-02-22 | 2020-08-31 | avi | 2 | | I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 |
198402 | 2020-02-23 | 2020-11-04 | ntrueman | 4 | | EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. |
198405 | 2020-02-23 | 2030-01-01 | Mati | 2 | | A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. |
198406 | 2020-02-23 | 2030-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. |
198407 | 2020-02-23 | 2044-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. |
198408 | 2020-02-23 | 2051-01-01 | Mati | 2 | | A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. |
198409 | 2020-02-23 | 2057-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. |
198410 | 2020-02-23 | 2090-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win |
198413 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 2 | Wrong | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February |
198414 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | Wrong | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March |
198415 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 6 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April |
198416 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May |
198417 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June |
198418 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July |
198419 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August |
198420 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September |
198421 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October |
198422 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November |
198423 | 2020-02-24 | 2021-01-01 | WilliamKiely | 4 | | [The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December |
198426 | 2020-02-26 | 2021-04-15 | EnergyParade | 2 | | 2020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA). |
198427 | 2020-02-26 | 2020-04-01 | suitecake | 6 | Right | 10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 |
198428 | 2020-02-26 | 2020-05-01 | suitecake | 5 | Right | 10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 |
198429 | 2020-02-26 | 2020-06-01 | suitecake | 6 | Right | 10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 |
198436 | 2020-02-28 | 2025-01-01 | jbeshir | 5 | | Health - Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. |
198437 | 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-04 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually. |
198438 | 2020-02-29 | 2020-03-20 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Effective Altruism - EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. |
198439 | 2020-02-29 | 2020-04-01 | jbeshir | 4 | Right | Health, UK - COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. |
198440 | 2020-02-29 | 2020-04-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | Politics - Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify. |
198441 | 2020-02-29 | 2020-04-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Health, UK - Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like "where possible" or "unless unavoidable" attached. |
198442 | 2020-02-29 | 2030-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. |
198443 | 2020-02-29 | 2036-01-01 | Mati | 2 | | Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036. |
198444 | 2020-02-29 | 2042-01-01 | Mati | 2 | | Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042. |
198445 | 2020-02-29 | 2030-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. |
198446 | 2020-02-29 | 2030-01-01 | Mati | 5 | | A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. |
198447 | 2020-02-29 | 2042-01-01 | Mati | 3 | | Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. |
198448 | 2020-02-29 | 2090-01-01 | Mati | 5 | | A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. |
198461 | 2020-03-05 | 2020-06-16 | lazarus | 3 | Wrong | [For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020. |
198462 | 2020-03-05 | 2020-06-16 | lazarus | 8 | Wrong | [For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. |
198468 | 2020-03-06 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, US - SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. |
198473 | 2020-03-08 | 2020-05-15 | Ianharrison | 2 | | The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia |
198474 | 2020-03-08 | 2020-05-15 | Ianharrison | 2 | | The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas |
198475 | 2020-03-08 | 2020-12-31 | batemancapital | 2 | Right | Federal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020 |
198476 | 2020-03-08 | 2020-07-30 | batemancapital | 2 | Wrong | Fed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting. |
198477 | 2020-03-08 | 2020-12-31 | batemancapital | 2 | | LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020 |
198485 | 2020-03-10 | 2021-12-31 | batemancapital | 4 | | SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 |
198500 | 2020-03-14 | 2020-08-01 | qznc | 2 | | Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August. |
198501 | 2020-03-14 | 2020-08-01 | qznc | 2 | Wrong | Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August |
198504 | 2020-03-14 | 2020-04-01 | qznc | 12 | Wrong | Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April |
198505 | 2020-03-14 | 2020-03-16 | Adam Zerner | 2 | Wrong | Trump has the coronavirus |
198506 | 2020-03-14 | 2020-10-30 | daveisright | 5 | | More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US |
198507 | 2020-03-14 | 2020-05-01 | daveisright | 1 | Withdrawn | vorpal will have a job |
198528 | 2020-03-19 | 2020-07-31 | kjaques | 10 | | <2M coronavirus deaths. |
198529 | 2020-03-19 | 2020-07-31 | kjaques | 11 | | < 35M coronavirus deaths |
198531 | 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-01 | Stucwerk | 19 | Right | More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March |
198537 | 2020-03-21 | 2020-03-28 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline. |
198552 | 2020-03-21 | 2020-05-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Government says restaurants may reopen for sit-in service before end of April. |
198553 | 2020-03-21 | 2020-04-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Business, UK - Tesco cease to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, by end of March. |
198554 | 2020-03-21 | 2020-03-31 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Business, UK - Tesco continue to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, but on checking on the 31st of March, there are no available slots on or before the 14th of April. |
198557 | 2020-03-22 | 2020-12-31 | sjy | 11 | | Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 |
198558 | 2020-03-22 | 2020-12-31 | sjy | 10 | | Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 |
198567 | 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-20 | moyamo | 2 | Wrong | The day on day increase people tested positive for COVID19 in South Africa will on average be > 20% at least until 100,000 people have tested positive |
198570 | 2020-03-25 | 2020-04-08 | areyouhappy | 3 | Right | Despite the lockdown in India, COVID-19 cases will continue to rise for another 2 weeks. The lockdown will be extended to the end of April. |
198571 | 2020-03-25 | 2020-04-01 | atharva117 | 6 | Wrong | India - Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020 |
198575 | 2020-03-27 | 2020-06-30 | batemancapital | 3 | Wrong | U.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020 |
198579 | 2020-03-28 | 2020-05-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Health, UK - UK government amends lockdown rules to put a specific numeric upper limit on distance travelled from home during exercise before end of April, and the limit is strictly less than 10 miles. |
198580 | 2020-03-28 | 2020-05-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Government introduces a government managed rationing system for any consumer good before end of April. |
198581 | 2020-03-28 | 2020-05-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, UK - UK government announces, before the end of April, it will bring forward payments under "(COVID-19) Self-employment Income Support Scheme" to earlier than June, or introduce an additional scheme helping the self-employed. |
198582 | 2020-03-28 | 2020-03-29 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal - My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least 4 bottles of any variety of cola from the order. Dr Pepper counts. |
198583 | 2020-03-28 | 2020-03-29 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Personal - My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least two packets of pasta of any variety. |
198584 | 2020-03-28 | 2021-01-01 | sjy | 2 | | No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020 |
198585 | 2020-03-28 | 2020-04-01 | raulquan | 1 | Wrong | estado de excepcion lo quitarán el 1 de abril 2020 |
198586 | 2020-03-29 | 2021-01-01 | sjy | 2 | | There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020 |
198587 | 2020-03-30 | 2020-05-01 | qznc | 5 | Right | Germany makes face masks mandatory (at least in certain places) in April |
198588 | 2020-03-30 | 2020-07-04 | sty.silver | 3 | Wrong | There will be at least 160.000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in China on July 1, 2020. |
198589 | 2020-03-31 | 2020-12-31 | Sashoir | 4 | | At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020 |
198590 | 2020-04-01 | 2020-05-04 | jacobgreenleaf | 3 | Right | San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd |
198593 | 2020-04-01 | 2020-05-01 | Stucwerk | 14 | Wrong | Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. |
198594 | 2020-04-01 | 2020-05-01 | Stucwerk | 15 | Wrong | Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. |
198597 | 2020-04-03 | 2021-04-01 | credunkist | 6 | | US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. |
198617 | 2020-04-06 | 2020-07-31 | qznc | 7 | Right | 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July |
198618 | 2020-04-06 | 2020-05-01 | qznc | 1 | Right | Will take the US [at least] until May to get back under 1000 deaths a day again |
198619 | 2020-04-06 | 2021-06-16 | sortega | 1 | | Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) |
198620 | 2020-04-06 | 2021-06-16 | sortega | 2 | | Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered) |
198621 | 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-10 | Rob Bednark | 1 | Wrong | SPY will stay below 270 this week (before 1pm PT close on Friday 4/6/20) |
198622 | 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-10 | Rob Bednark | 1 | Right | SPY will be no lower than 250 for the rest of this week (Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT - Fri 4/10/20 1pm PT market close). |
198623 | 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-07 | Rob Bednark | 1 | Wrong | ES futures will range between 2575 and 2650 between Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT and market open Tue 4/7/20 6:30am PT. |
198624 | 2020-04-07 | 2020-04-17 | bradleybossard | 3 | Wrong | UVXY will hit $65 again by April 17th |
198636 | 2020-04-10 | 2020-07-10 | Jayson Virissimo | 5 | | If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. |
198646 | 2020-04-10 | 2020-05-01 | JoshuaZ | 3 | Wrong | Sweden to have a stay-at-home lockdown by the end of April |
198670 | 2020-04-14 | 2020-06-01 | qznc | 2 | Right | Schools in Germany will open again in April |
198682 | 2020-04-17 | 2021-01-01 | batemancapital | 2 | | S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020 |
198692 | 2020-04-18 | 2021-11-03 | qznc | 2 | | Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year |
198701 | 2020-04-19 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | Rethink Charity gets SBA PPP program money in 2020 |
198702 | 2020-04-19 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 1 | Right | Contingent on more money being added to the PPP program, that money will be available for 501c3 non-profits |
198703 | 2020-04-19 | 2020-06-01 | peter_hurford | 2 | Right | a bill passes and is signed into law to add more money to the SBA PPP program in 2020 before 1am on June 1, 2020 ET |
198718 | 2020-04-21 | 2020-12-31 | Laurent Bossavit | 3 | | France to experience a Covid "second wave" in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) |
198719 | 2020-04-22 | 2020-06-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | Wrong | One or more members of predictionbook acknowledges that excluding features with statistically significant coefficients when constructing statistical models is a form pseudo-rationality, and admits below to being guilty of this. |
198720 | 2020-04-22 | 2021-04-21 | batemancapital | 1 | | Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021 |
198752 | 2020-04-24 | 2020-08-10 | qznc | 1 | | The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed. |
198753 | 2020-04-25 | 2020-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Personal - I weigh in below 67kg by the end of May. |
198754 | 2020-04-25 | 2020-06-02 | jbeshir | 4 | Wrong | Politics, UK - More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020 |
198755 | 2020-04-25 | 2020-06-04 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | COVID, Sweden - Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020. |
198756 | 2020-04-25 | 2020-06-04 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | COVID, Sweden - Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020. |
198757 | 2020-04-25 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 3 | | Politics, UK - General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. |
198758 | 2020-04-25 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | | Business, UK - Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. |
198761 | 2020-04-26 | 2020-04-27 | evand | 1 | Right | Starhopper SN 4 test article will pass cryo pressure test |
198762 | 2020-04-26 | 2021-04-26 | evand | 9 | | Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus |
198797 | 2020-05-02 | 2020-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics UK - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full by end of May. |
198798 | 2020-05-02 | 2020-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics UK - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May. |
198799 | 2020-05-02 | 2020-06-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Politics, UK - "The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (4)" requirement to close premises and businesses is revoked or amended, or the list of affected businesses in Schedule 2 is amended, by end of May. |
198800 | 2020-05-02 | 2020-06-01 | jacobgreenleaf | 3 | Right | San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. |
198814 | 2020-05-05 | 2030-12-31 | wizzwizz4 | 1 | Withdrawn | Global yearly malaria death toll <40 000 by 2030. |
198822 | 2020-05-08 | 2020-09-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | | Jaylen Samuels makes the roster |
198823 | 2020-05-08 | 2020-09-01 | Adam Zerner | 1 | | Tuzar Skipper makes the roster |
198824 | 2020-05-08 | 2020-12-31 | batemancapital | 1 | | Fed cuts Fed Fund rate to negative before end of 2020 |
198828 | 2020-05-09 | 2020-11-16 | evand | 1 | | Amash gets the R nomination in 2020, conditional on Trump not getting it. |
198874 | 2020-05-12 | 2021-01-01 | daffy | 1 | | adsfasdfasdf |
198879 | 2020-05-14 | 2020-09-24 | Bruno Parga | 2 | | I have learned all words in all 7 levels of Memrise Russian. |
198883 | 2020-05-15 | 2020-05-24 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Personal, Productivity - I finish making Anki cards for and reading chapters 5 and 6 of "An Introduction to Godel's Theorems" by the end of the 23rd of May. |
198884 | 2020-05-15 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, UK - Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June. |
198885 | 2020-05-15 | 2020-06-25 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, UK - Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June. |
198891 | 2020-05-16 | 2021-01-01 | enolan | 1 | | [REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021 |
198892 | 2020-05-16 | 2021-01-01 | enolan | 1 | | [REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2021 |
198946 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-08-01 | amadeu | 7 | | [Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris |
198947 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-08-01 | amadeu | 4 | | [Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer |
198948 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-08-01 | amadeu | 6 | | [Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren |
198949 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-08-01 | amadeu | 4 | | [Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham |
198950 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-08-01 | amadeu | 4 | | [Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan |
198951 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-08-01 | amadeu | 3 | | [Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams |
198952 | 2020-05-22 | 2020-08-01 | amadeu | 3 | | [Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else |
198953 | 2020-05-23 | 2021-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | | Tech - LG releases a "swivel" two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020 |
198954 | 2020-05-23 | 2020-05-28 | jbeshir | 8 | Wrong | Tech - Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. |
198955 | 2020-05-23 | 2020-06-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, India - Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May. |
198956 | 2020-05-23 | 2021-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | | Tech - iPhone 12 releases in 2020 |
198957 | 2020-05-23 | 2021-01-01 | jbeshir | 1 | | Tech - iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model. |
198958 | 2020-05-23 | 2020-05-28 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May, and successfully delivers them to the ISS. |
198975 | 2020-05-25 | 2020-05-26 | msonaeiou | 1 | Wrong | T will come to the party tomorrow |
198976 | 2020-05-25 | 2020-05-25 | msonaeiou | 1 | Right | Jon will not ask me to play CoD tonight |
198977 | 2020-05-25 | 2020-05-26 | msonaeiou | 1 | Right | All 4 other invited people will come to the party tomorrow |
198980 | 2020-05-25 | 2020-05-25 | msonaeiou | 1 | Right | Vlad and Valerie will kiss by the end of the episode |
198992 | 2020-05-26 | 2021-01-01 | Adam Zerner | 5 | | Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus |
198996 | 2020-05-27 | 2020-12-25 | wizzwizz4 | 1 | | It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) |
199003 | 2020-05-28 | 2025-05-23 | smodnix | 1 | | Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025 |
199007 | 2020-05-28 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Wrong | Politics, UK - Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020. |
199008 | 2020-05-28 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020. |
199009 | 2020-05-28 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020. |
199012 | 2020-05-28 | 2020-11-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith prior to the start of November 2020. |
199013 | 2020-05-28 | 2020-11-01 | jbeshir | 2 | | Politics, US - An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 |
199014 | 2020-05-28 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Politics, US - Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020. |
199179 | 2020-06-01 | 2023-01-05 | Issa Rice | 1 | | Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom. |
199180 | 2020-06-01 | 2023-01-05 | Issa Rice | 1 | | Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit). |
199191 | 2020-06-02 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 |
199192 | 2020-06-02 | 2026-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025 |
199193 | 2020-06-03 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 |
199203 | 2020-06-04 | 2020-11-25 | JoshuaZ | 9 | | Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. |
199211 | 2020-06-05 | 2024-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 |
199212 | 2020-06-05 | 2025-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian |
199213 | 2020-06-05 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020 |
199214 | 2020-06-05 | 2035-01-01 | InquilineKea | 2 | | Ralph Nader will hit age 100 |
199215 | 2020-06-05 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030? |
199216 | 2020-06-05 | 2099-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? |
199217 | 2020-06-05 | 2099-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? |
199218 | 2020-06-05 | 2031-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Will Issa Rice become a wizard? |
199219 | 2020-06-05 | 2021-02-01 | jbeshir | 4 | | Politics, US - Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. |
199220 | 2020-06-05 | 2020-10-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020 |
199223 | 2020-06-06 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 3 | Wrong | COVID, UK - For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. |
199224 | 2020-06-06 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | COVID, US - For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. |
199225 | 2020-06-06 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | COVID - Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800. |
199226 | 2020-06-06 | 2020-07-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Officers placed on unpaid leave in Buffalo, in relation to the hospitalisation of a 75-year old man, are criminally charged in relation to this action by end of June. |
199227 | 2020-06-06 | 2021-01-16 | LouisLC | 1 | | 2021 Portuguese presidential election - Abstention higher than 50% |
199228 | 2020-06-06 | 2021-01-01 | LouisLC | 1 | | Portugal - countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 |
199233 | 2020-06-07 | 2020-09-01 | katriel | 1 | | Sowmya will do any work (not including sending messages) for EpidemicForecasting.org between June 5, 2020 and Aug 31, 2020. |
199234 | 2020-06-07 | 2021-05-16 | sortega | 1 | | Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) |
199235 | 2020-06-07 | 2020-07-01 | qznc | 1 | Right | German Corona warning app goes live in June |
199240 | 2020-06-09 | 2021-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 6 | | North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 |
199241 | 2020-06-09 | 2021-01-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 1 | | Cal Newport changes his name to something that doesn't sound like a state, a cigarette, or a beach. |
199244 | 2020-06-09 | 2022-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 2 | | New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. |
199245 | 2020-06-09 | 2021-02-22 | JoshuaZ | 3 | | SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. |
199246 | 2020-06-09 | 2022-01-01 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | First SLS to fly by end of 2021. |
199258 | 2020-06-10 | 2021-01-04 | qznc | 1 | | Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis) |
199270 | 2020-06-11 | 2021-01-01 | Deepak | 2 | | By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2 |
199273 | 2020-06-11 | 2020-11-04 | Deepak | 1 | | Democrats hold House in 2020 |
199274 | 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-19 | Deepak | 2 | Right | [Top Chef will be won by] Melissa |
199275 | 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-19 | Deepak | 2 | Wrong | [Top Chef will be won by] Bryan |
199276 | 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-19 | Deepak | 1 | Wrong | [Top Chef will be won by] Kevin |
199277 | 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-19 | Deepak | 2 | Wrong | [Top Chef will be won by] Stephanie |
199303 | 2020-06-13 | 2020-07-11 | krazemon | 1 | | Arizona's daily new COVID cases count will be >=6000, as measured by Google's tracker: https://g.co/kgs/8UHaz1, on July 11, 2020. |
199304 | 2020-06-13 | 2020-07-11 | krazemon | 2 | | Florida's daily new COVID cases count will be >=7500, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9XhcYm), on July 11, 2020. |
199305 | 2020-06-13 | 2020-07-11 | krazemon | 2 | | Texas's daily new confirmed COVID cases will be >=8000 as of July 11, 2020, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9be2zJ). |
199314 | 2020-06-15 | 2041-01-01 | InquilineKea | 1 | | Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040 |
199315 | 2020-06-15 | 2020-11-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 11 | | Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate |
199316 | 2020-06-15 | 2027-04-02 | Mathieu_Putz | 3 | | World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026. |
199320 | 2020-06-17 | 2020-11-15 | akarlin | 3 | | Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) |
199321 | 2020-06-17 | 2021-01-15 | akarlin | 2 | | This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%) |
199322 | 2020-06-17 | 2021-03-15 | akarlin | 1 | | Russia's GDP will decline by more than 10% this year #coronavirus , https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1240818241502658566 (duplicating March 20 bet) |
199323 | 2020-06-17 | 2020-07-05 | akarlin | 1 | Right | Vote on Russian constitutional amendment on July 1 to get more than 65% support |
199334 | 2020-06-20 | 2020-06-27 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Tech - Apple announces during WWDC 2020 that they intend to release devices, not necessarily specified, which use ARM processors and run macOS at any point in the future, not necessarily specified. |
199335 | 2020-06-20 | 2020-06-27 | jbeshir | 1 | Wrong | Tech - Apple announces at least one new smart speaker model whose price is below $299 during WWDC. |
199338 | 2020-06-20 | 2020-06-27 | jbeshir | 2 | Right | Tech - Apple announces that iOS 14 or iPadOS 14 will contain the ability to change the default email app and/or default browser during WWDC 2020. |
199339 | 2020-06-20 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Geoffrey Berman, the US Attorney in Manhattan, resigns or is fired by the end of July 2020. |
199348 | 2020-06-21 | 2020-08-01 | contra | 3 | | Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. |
199351 | 2020-06-21 | 2029-01-01 | InquilineKea | 7 | | Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election |
199368 | 2020-06-23 | 2021-01-01 | azatris | 1 | | TSLA to split stocks by end of 2020 |
199371 | 2020-06-23 | 2021-01-01 | akarlin | 4 | | I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88) |
199372 | 2020-06-23 | 2020-07-08 | akarlin | 16 | Wrong | Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT |
199377 | 2020-06-24 | 2021-01-01 | peter_hurford | 6 | | Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year |
199378 | 2020-06-24 | 2020-10-20 | smodnix | 1 | | Telegram app will block in some countries. |
199400 | 2020-06-27 | 2020-10-01 | MikeMitchell | 1 | | I deploy a project other than my portfolio site. |
199401 | 2020-06-28 | 2021-02-01 | krazemon | 5 | | A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. |
199422 | 2020-06-30 | 2020-07-01 | Deepak | 1 | Wrong | [The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jan + Henck |
199423 | 2020-06-30 | 2020-07-01 | Deepak | 1 | Wrong | [The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jim + Ralph |
199424 | 2020-06-30 | 2020-07-01 | Deepak | 1 | Wrong | [The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Sarah + Jordan |
199457 | 2020-07-01 | 2021-07-16 | JoshuaZ | 1 | | The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. |
199458 | 2020-07-01 | 2020-12-31 | contra | 4 | | Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. |
199461 | 2020-07-03 | 2022-01-01 | InquilineKea | 5 | | Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 |
199470 | 2020-07-05 | 2020-08-01 | Tapetum-Lucidum | 6 | | Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid |
199471 | 2020-07-05 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 2 | | COVID, UK - Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. |
199472 | 2020-07-05 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | | Personal - I weigh less than 63kg by the end of July. |
199473 | 2020-07-05 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | Right | Politics, US - Someone is charged in relation to car driven into protestors on Interstate 5 in Seattle on the 4th of July 2020 by end of July. |
199474 | 2020-07-05 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | | Tech - OnePlus Nord is released by deadline and has a 90Hz refresh rate screen in all models. |
199475 | 2020-07-05 | 2020-08-01 | jbeshir | 1 | | Tech - OnePlus Nord's UK release price is £400 or less. |