12008-06-202008-06-20Matt1RightPredictionBook will have an Alpha server running by June 20, 2008
22008-06-202008-06-23Frank1WrongASX will finish above 5440
32008-06-202008-06-30Natalie1WrongSype video will not work next time
42008-06-202008-06-19Natalie1WrongThe epiode "11" of scrubs Series 7 we have just watched is not actually episode 11
52008-06-202008-06-20Adam1RightWe will have validation of result dates
62008-06-202008-06-26Frank1WrongIt will take you until at least next Friday to get an input mask into the percentage field.
72008-06-202008-12-30Trainor7Rightpbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08
82008-06-202008-08-01Lina1WrongWe will be living at 630 Canning by Aug 1st.
122008-06-212008-06-24Miyo1WrongAndy will come home from King Island later than Tuesday
152008-06-212008-05-07Lina1WrongIt will take 2 weeks for Trike to fix the glich that has my predictions going in multiple times.
162008-06-232008-06-24Lina1RightNo one else will make a prediction today.
182008-06-242008-06-24Matt1RightMovies have a smaller _relative_ market share now than 10 yrs ago
192008-06-262008-06-26Adam1Rightpbook will remember my name after this prediction
202008-06-272008-06-27Adam1Rightpbook will deal with input like ßéàüçñåπæœ
212008-06-292008-11-08Lina9RightObama will be the next US president.
242008-07-012008-01-01Andy2WrongQuiksilver shares will finish the year above $11
252008-07-022008-07-04Frank1WrongExcess bagage delivered by end of week (friday)
262008-07-022008-07-16Frank2RightDespite much reading I will be unable to speed up my PS3's web browsing
272008-07-042008-07-08Glenn5RightThe world will not end when the LHC is activated
282008-07-042008-07-04Glenn1RightPer distance travelled, aeroplanes result in less fatalities than helicopters
292008-07-042008-07-04Adam2RightOur deploy of shared predictions will happen without fault
322008-07-062008-06-29Frank1Wrongboth pineal lesions from last week will turn out to be germinomas on histology
332008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1WrongTextile "(classname)links(now way this tooltip is gonna work)":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Textile_(markup_language) render correctly
342008-07-072008-07-13Glenn1Wrong*this weekend* will not work as a result date
352008-07-072008-07-13Glenn1Rightsolid description formatting will be implemented by this weekend
362008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrong@code@ tags will break rendering
372008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrongblockquote bq. tags will break rendering
382008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrongblockquote bq. tags will break rendering
392008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Rightbq. starting a line with blockquote will break rendering
402008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Rightimages will render inline !http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/31/Dancing_Banana.gif!
412008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Rightthe prediction with the dancing banana will annoy Matt
422008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Right<FONT color="#ffffff" size="+1"><MARQUEE bgcolor="#000080" direction="right" loop="20" width="75%"><STRONG>Marquee's will work</STRONG></MARQUEE></FONT>
432008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Right<BLINK>Blink tag will work</BLINK>
442008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrongmulti line predictions will render multiline _=====_ _=====_ / _____ \ / _____ \ +.-'_____'-.---------------------------.-'_____'-.+ / | |
472008-07-072008-07-09Adam3Wrongausthink payment will be done by wednesday
482008-07-072008-07-11Adam3Wrongausthink payment will be done by end of 4 day week
492008-07-072008-07-08Andy1RightWindfinder will be more accurate than Coastalwatch or Swellnet for tomorrow mornings winds
502008-07-072008-07-18Andy2RightMy 6'0" will feel way better with DHD-2's rather than K2.1's
512008-07-072008-07-10Miyo2RightTwo of my three ebay listings will have a bid by Thursday 10pm
522008-07-082008-07-18Kenji2Wrongmodelling and design of bed base will take 15hrs
532008-07-092008-08-09Glenn2Wrongausthink credit credit and paypal payment will be published live
542008-07-092008-08-09Adam2Wrongwe will need pagination on the front page
552008-07-102008-07-24Chantelle3WrongTrike staff will eat all the chocolates and raise money for charity
562008-07-102008-07-11Andy1RightTelstra iphone contracts will be significantly more expensive than Optus
572008-07-102008-07-11Lina2WrongThe iphone wont sell out today
582008-07-132008-07-16Adam2WrongMatt won't use his own website for the next 3 days
592008-07-142008-07-23Frank3RightGerrit will return with new (and proably metrosexual) facial hair
602008-07-142008-07-15Frank2WrongI will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow.
612008-07-142008-08-01Frank1Wrongthat mass I saw today will turn out to be a cystic meningioma on histology
622008-07-152008-07-15Adam2Rightfirst test paypal payment through austhink refactor will fail with an mildly new error message
632008-07-152008-07-21Matt4RightI'll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth's account changes without going to the branch
642008-07-152008-08-30Adam2RightGeneration Kill won't have quite the same depth of story as The Wire
652008-07-152008-07-19Adam2WrongMy account details from HSBC will arrive before the end of the week
662008-07-162009-01-01Glenn5Wrong1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out
672008-07-162008-07-23Andy2RightAfter releuctantly joining Facebook, I will end up with over 25 friend requests within the first week. Unsolicited.
682008-07-162008-07-23Andy2RightBetween 20 and 40% of friend requests will be from people that I don't really want as friends (but I awkwardly accept anyway)
692008-07-162009-01-16Andy2RightI will be able to use Facebook for some mild professional benefit within the next 6 months
702008-07-162010-01-01Glenn5WrongGoogle will buy Twitter by 2010
712008-07-162008-07-17Frank2WrongI will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow.
722008-07-162008-07-18Frank2WrongI will be called in for an angiogram between 8pm and 8 am in the next 3 nights
732008-07-162009-01-01Glenn1Wrongwhen I write jan 1st 2010 it stores as 1st January 2010
742008-07-162008-08-06Glenn1Rightinterpreting 2010 as a 8:10pm (as a bug) will not be fixed for ages
752008-07-162008-08-16Glenn1Wrongambiguous (and proably contradictorily worded) predictions will have some means of 'in app' resolution
762008-07-162008-07-20Glenn1Righttyping 100 years from now as a result date will no longer crash the server
772008-07-162018-07-16Glenn1Rightthe 2010 bug will strike again before it is fixed
782008-07-162008-07-16Glenn1Rightwe will have a judged 100% prediction by the end of today
792008-07-162008-07-16Glenn2Wrongthis prediction is wrong
802008-07-162008-07-21Adam2WrongAuthorize.Net will be the first gateway to return my enquiry with any useful information
812008-07-162009-01-01Lina3RightElectrodrive will post 2 new news items a month for the rest of the year
822008-07-161958-07-16Glenn1Wrongthis prediction will be 'judged' as wrong
832008-07-162008-07-17Glenn1Rightmatt will come into work tomorrow wearing, yet again, one of those sleavless jacket things
842008-07-162008-07-17Glenn2Wrongwe will finish our end of austhink (sans non-bogus gateways)
852008-07-161983-11-03Glenn1Righti was born
862008-07-162008-07-20Glenn1Rightfailed posting as a new name reverts to session stored name will be fixed by end of friday
882008-07-162008-07-30Adam2WrongGlenn will get bored of posting bogus predictions in 2 weeks
892008-07-162008-08-20Frank1Withdrawn7377330 = meningioma, or haemangiopericytoma
912008-07-182038-07-18Adam8The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k
922008-07-182008-07-13Glenn1Wrongthere will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark
932008-07-182009-04-16Frank1Wrong6994767 right temp mass will not be a tumour when resected
942008-07-182008-07-18Matt1RightWithin 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position
952008-07-182008-07-19Frank1Withdrawn7381437 will turn out to be an acoustic schwannoma
962008-07-192008-08-16Frank1Right7370034 = met
972008-07-192008-08-16Frank1Wrong7381792 = meningioma
982008-07-202008-07-21Natalie1Wrongtoenail will fall of by midnight
992008-07-222008-07-23Frank1Rightmy bike will be ready to be picked up on time
1002008-07-222009-01-22Andy2RightPBook will become a fun way of sending messages to friends.
1012008-07-222008-07-24Andy1RightWithin 2 days I will wish I had put the certainty on my last prediction at a higher percentage
1022008-07-222008-07-22Andy1RightThat falafel I had for lunch will come back to say hello
1032008-07-222009-07-22Andy1WrongOver the next year I will use PBook more than Twitter to update friends on what I'm up to (like that falafel thing)
1042008-07-232008-07-25Gerrit2RightFerret will not fail until friday
1052008-07-232008-07-24Gerrit1WrongMy quote for Urban was too low
1062008-07-232008-08-13Gerrit1WithdrawnThree weeks for Urban will turn out to be optimistic
1072008-07-242008-09-16Frank1Right14749874 = cystic meningioma
1082008-07-242008-08-16Frank1WithdrawnHIV pt = viral leukoenchephalitis
1092008-07-242008-08-16Frank1Wrongsame HIV = VZV
1102008-07-252008-10-25Lina2WrongFallshaw (Jo) will win the Woolworths Tug job - Jo' prediction, she's really sure.
1112008-07-262008-08-09Lina1RightGD's clan does not include Mercedes
1122008-07-282008-07-27Glenn1RightAgainst what I've always throught, I (Glenn) am primarily protanomalous, not deuteranomalous.
1132008-07-302008-02-15Glenn1Rightnot being able to comment on your own prediction is silly
1142008-07-302008-07-31Glenn1Rightthis will be the most important prediction EVER
1172008-07-312008-08-02Glenn1RightRobbie Rotten's plans will once again be thwarted
1182008-08-012008-08-01Matt1WrongThe Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths
1192008-08-012008-08-01Glenn2WrongWe will finish user accounts by 5pm
1202008-08-012009-11-11Glenn3WrongThe statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases
1212008-08-012008-08-01Adam1WrongSigur Rós will be awesome but the sound will suck
1222008-08-012008-08-01Matt1RightWhen I click the link in Glenn's bogus comment in my name, it'll be Rick
1232008-08-012008-08-06Glenn1WrongPeople will wonder why it has the form for creating a prediction when you're not logged in
1242008-08-022008-08-09Glenn2WrongUsing ✔ and ✘ on the main page (though not the user page) is elitist behaviour that will be destroyed within a week.
1252008-08-023008-08-02Glenn5Wrongthis will be the most _popular_ prediction EVER
1262008-08-032009-08-03Glenn1Wrongpbook will need some type of legal disclaimer (i.e. privacy policy, user agreement) on signup within a year
1272008-08-032008-12-31Lina1RightI will use the gate out back of canning to park my car in the courtyard at least 10 times this year
1282008-08-042008-08-04Glenn1Wrongthe human eye is at its full size at birth
1292008-08-042008-08-04Glenn1Withdrawnpeople find it more difficult to cope with the loss of a hand than the loss of a foot
1302008-08-052008-09-20Frank1WrongMRN 14751956 adenoid cystic carcinoma of the lacrimal gland
1312008-08-052008-09-20Talia1Wrong14751956 adenoidcystic ca
1322008-08-052008-09-20Talia1Wrong14751956 adenoidcystic ca
1332008-08-072008-10-01Frank1Wrong14546870 = scc of rt scm node
1342008-08-072008-10-01Frank1Right14840002 = TB or Pap T4 to nodes
1352008-08-072008-10-01Frank1Right14840002 = pap thyroid to node
1362008-08-112008-08-12Adam2WrongThe CrmHub api will allow the license key to be checked with only license key as input
1372008-08-112008-08-12Adam2WrongThe CrmHub api will allow all license keys to be retreived using an email address
1382008-08-122008-10-16Frank1Right14733648 = glioma of some kind
1392008-08-122008-10-16Frank1Withdrawn14733648 = gangliocytoma
1402008-08-122008-10-16Frank1Wrong14733648 = gangliocytoma
1412008-08-122008-08-13Frank1Rightcase just now ADEM, Lymphoma, Mets
1422008-08-122008-08-13Frank1Rightcase just now lymphoma
1432008-08-142008-08-20Matt1WrongThe existing crmhub api will allow licenses to be retrieved from an email address (but may require multiple requests)
1442008-08-142008-08-14Glenn1Rightthis will email me a reminder when i tickle it
1452008-08-142008-08-15Glenn1Rightthis will NOT email me when i tickle it. yet
1462008-08-142011-08-14Glenn1Wrong1337 is Lupus
1472008-08-142008-08-14Glenn1Wronga prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i'll have to fix it manually
1482008-08-142008-08-14Glenn1Wronga confidence of 0 will break
1492008-08-142008-11-16Frank1Right14743632 = mengioma
1502008-08-152008-08-15Gerrit1WrongI will get an email
1512008-08-152008-08-15Gerrit1WrongI will get an email
1522008-08-152008-08-15Glenn1Wrongcrontab will work
1532008-08-152008-08-29Glenn1Rightprologue is to epilogue as preface is to postface
1542008-08-162008-08-16Glenn1Right_this_ *will* "format":http://www.google.com !bang! kinda
1552008-08-162008-08-23Glenn2RightMatt will be happy he will no longer be able to be instantly Rick rolled
1562008-08-182008-08-18jarpy1RightThe rake task to send deadlines will work.
1572008-08-182008-08-18jarpy1WrongDeadline emails will fail from cron due to sparse environment variables.
1582008-08-222008-08-22Matt1WrongI will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes
1592008-08-232009-02-23Andy2RightBillabong shares will climb from $11.30 to over $13.50 within 6 months
1612008-08-252029-05-16Gerrit4RightApophis will not hit earth
1622008-08-262010-02-26Lina2WrongSkinny jeans will last for no more than 18 months
1632008-08-262008-08-27Miyo1Rightmoko will behave partcularly well tonight
1642008-08-262009-08-26Miyo2Wrongdave & michelle will be pregnant with in one year of being married.
1652008-08-262008-08-26Adam1RightCoffee machine drain hole is 9mm wide
1662008-08-262008-10-16Frank1Withdrawn14721148 = scc node or infective node
1672008-08-262008-10-16Frank1Wrong14721148 = scc node or infective node
1682008-08-262008-10-16Frank1Wrong14721148 = TB
1692008-08-272010-08-27Miyo3RightJohn Farnham will have another come back tour in Australia within 2 years.
1702008-08-282008-10-16Frank1Right13333001 = chordoma or chondrosarcom
1712008-08-312008-08-31Lina1RightI will get an email telling me this prediction can be judged
1722008-09-012008-03-09Lina1RightMatt will get me on to redmine today.
1732008-09-042008-09-04Glenn1RightThere will be no traffic mishaps on the journey home
1752008-09-042008-09-04Glenn1RightThere will be no traffic mishaps on the Westgate between 9:30 and 10am tomorrow morning
1762008-09-042008-09-04Glenn1RightThis will redirect me back to recent instead of the old table view
1772008-09-042008-09-05Adam2RightThe circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line
1782008-09-042008-09-04Adam1RightAfter spending an hour on the phone to the UK I will be able to access my account
1792008-09-052008-09-06Adam1RightTomorrow morning for this prediction will be in UTC
1802008-09-052008-09-05Adam1Righttomorrow morning for this prediction will be in EST (AU)
1812008-09-052008-09-05Glenn1WrongSaying no now, and yes later to an email will work
1822008-09-052008-09-19Glenn4RightAnonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours
1832008-09-052008-09-19Glenn5RightAnonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours
1842008-09-052008-09-05Adam1WrongI won't be able to double post this prediction
1862008-09-052008-09-05Adam1RightI won't be able to dupe this time
1872008-09-062008-09-06Glenn1RightUnchecked won't want to send me an email
1882008-09-062008-09-06Glenn1RightUnchecked response won't want to send me an email
1892008-09-062008-09-06Glenn1RightThis prediction will post
1902008-09-082008-09-08Glenn1WrongI will be able to reproduce the nillify blank bug
1912008-09-082008-09-08Glenn1RightThis will email me within 10 minutes
1922008-09-082008-09-08Glenn1RightEmailing me will /not/ reproduce the nillify blank bug
1932008-09-082009-12-31Glenn1WrongDespite Federal takeover, ‘Fannie Mae’ and ‘Freddie Mac' will become insolvent, and ultimately bankrupt
1942008-09-092008-09-10Glenn1RightThe world will not end when the first LHC beam is injected on 10th September
1952008-09-092009-12-28Glenn13RightThe world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams
1962008-09-092008-09-09Glenn1RightThis will not email me if i say yes then say no
1972008-09-092008-09-09Matt1RightAdam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu
1982008-09-122008-10-16Frank1Withdrawnorbital mass = malignant non lymphoma
1992008-09-162008-09-16Adam1RightGlenn's fixes will have worked
2002008-09-162008-09-16Glenn1RightI won't have to read the manual to set up the monitor
2012008-09-162009-11-28Glenn1WrongThere will not be a 2009 season of 'Make Me a Supermodel'
2022008-09-162008-09-17Glenn1RightAdam, Gerrit and Matt didn't know that you can remove a processor from the Mac Pro and save over $700
2032008-09-162010-09-16Glenn1RightNext time I get breath tested, I'm going to ask to see my reading. The police person won't like it.
2042008-09-162008-10-16Glenn1RightWithout participating in a clinical trial, there is no legally available 'fire-and-forget' male contraceptive (pill, patch, injection etc.)
2052008-09-162008-09-17Glenn1RightIngDirect will be back up by tomorrow
2062008-09-172008-09-17Glenn1WrongWagerable is a word
2072008-09-172008-09-17Adam1Withdrawnthis prediction will be worthless
2082008-09-172008-09-17Glenn1Rightour changes worked
2092008-09-182009-03-18AndyAlterEgo2WrongBuying index funds today (S&P at 4552) would be a good investment
2102008-09-182008-09-18Glenn1WrongThis deploy will work
2112008-09-182008-09-18Glenn1RightPublished predictions will be published
2162008-09-182008-09-18Glenn1RightUser publish default settings will work
2242008-09-222008-09-22Glenn1WrongThe lyrics to electric feel are "spin me like an electric drill" not "shock me like an electric eel"
2252008-09-222008-09-22Glenn1Wrong"less words" can be considered correct grammar
2262008-09-222008-09-22Adam2Rightnotification of comments and wagers will inform me
2272008-09-222013-04-01Adam10RightThe NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative
2282008-09-232008-09-26Frank1WrongNat will be paged after midnight
2292008-09-242009-11-09Glenn3RightExtremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions - even given they now have until our Autumn next year
2302008-09-242008-09-26Glenn1Right"Notify me when someone responds" will be working again by the end of this week
2312008-09-242108-09-24Glenn2Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive
2342008-09-262008-09-26Adam2Rightrails partial name scheme for namespaced models will be views/namespace/classname/_classname
2352008-09-302009-09-16Miyo1RightBlackburn football club seniors will finish in the final 5 in EFL 2009
2362008-09-302009-03-16Miyo1RightCrawf will have a baby boy
2392008-10-022008-10-02Frank1WrongIt will not demonstrate a lot of enhancement
2402008-10-022008-11-16Frank1Wrongbugger... 11999570 = meningioma
2412008-10-062011-04-06Andy3WrongQuiksilver shares will double inside 30 months
2422008-10-062008-10-06Glenn1RightI pushed
2432008-10-072008-10-08tester1RightI am tester, hear me roar
2462008-10-092008-10-10Andy1RightQuiksilver shares are better value at $3.62 than they were at $5.08
2472008-10-102009-04-10Andy1Wrong$3.19 will have been a good buying price for Quiksilver.
2482008-10-232008-10-23Glenn2Rightremoving prototype.js will make preview work on dentalcorp
2492008-10-232008-10-24Glenn2RightRemoving GA, readding Prototype. Preview will work.
2552008-10-292008-11-16Frank1Wrong14237090 (same as the one before with wrong number) atypical meningioma
2562008-11-042008-11-04Andy1RightMiyo will make a prediction within 5 minutes
2572008-11-042008-12-01Andy1RightThe ASX will drop below 4200 again in November this year
2582008-11-042008-11-06Miyo1WrongThe ASX will end Thursday above 4,300.
2592008-11-042009-08-04Andy1WrongObama will lose, and the USA will have emigration explode to their highest ever rates
2602008-11-052008-11-06Adam2WrongImplement conditional get/caching of processed feed in pod shifter by 12pm thursday
2722008-11-102008-11-09Matt2RightCharlotte will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip).
2732008-11-122008-11-12Adam2Rightthe aws-s3 refactor of podshifter will successfully upload the converted mp3 to s3
2762008-11-192009-06-19Andy1WrongWestpac economist says the ASX will hit 3200 before turning around
2772008-11-252008-12-02Matt1WrongOur podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode
2782008-12-022009-02-01Matt1WrongRadiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009
2792008-12-022009-01-15Matt1WrongRadiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009
2802008-12-042008-12-04Matt1RightOur unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway
2922009-02-182009-03-18th1RightElectrodrive will buy a label printer
2932009-02-192009-03-01Adam1Wrongmy visa will arive
2942009-02-192009-04-19Adam2RightI will be in england before podshifter gets restyled.
2952009-02-192009-02-26Andy1RightThe test is wrong: I will still be lactose intolerant
2962009-03-202009-03-20Wes2RightThe url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today
2972009-03-202009-04-17thomas1RightNorth Carolina will win the NCCA championship.
2982009-04-242009-12-31Andy1WrongVolcom will dip below $10 again before the end of 2009
2992009-04-242009-06-07Philip2RightRoger Federer will win the French Open.
3002009-04-282009-04-29dariusp6861RightDeploy lesswrong will ensure new page always shows in new sort order and prevent anyone with an old rising sort order preference from not being able to change their preference and always seeing nothing
3012009-04-292009-04-30jimmyh1Withdrawni will eat tomorrow
3022009-04-302009-05-18marquisdetrade1WithdrawnS&P will not go above 900 before May 18
3032009-04-302009-06-30marquisdetrade1WrongThere will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%.
3042009-05-012009-12-31Pablo Stafforini4RightI will not become a theist before the end of 2009.
3062009-05-052009-05-05Matt1RightThe result of this coin flip will be heads
3142009-05-122009-05-13Lina2Wrongprediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today
3152009-05-122009-05-13Lina2Rightglenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions
3162009-05-122009-05-12Glenn1Rightthese two machines are the same deployment
3172009-05-132009-05-13Glenn1Withdrawn▀█▀ █▬█ █ ▄▄█▀▀
3182009-05-132009-05-13Glenn1Rightthis will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au
3192009-05-132009-11-15Miyo3WrongAndy and Miyo will have a baby boy
3202009-05-142010-01-01Lina1RightAustralia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate.
3212009-05-152009-11-16Andy2RightIt will be a girl.
3222009-05-152009-05-15Wes1RightAn email will be sent to me
3232009-05-152009-08-16Lina2Right@kevinrose and @tferriss will make a regular thing of Random
3242009-05-172009-06-17EvF1WrongFor Australia the sex ratio at birth is 1.05 male(s)/female. Stats overall are probably skewed by incidence of deliberate female foetus abortions. Therefore I am 50% sure it will be a boy
3252009-05-172009-05-18TwitterPredicts2WrongPredicting a Celtics victory tonight
3262009-05-182009-05-21TwitterPredicts1WrongAdam Lambert will win American Idol
3272009-05-192009-05-21TwitterPredicts1WrongKris Allen will not win American Idol
3282009-05-192009-05-22scott.arbeitman2RightGraph axes will have labels by this Friday
3292009-05-192009-05-20TwitterPredicts1RightThe LA Lakers will beat the Denver Nuggets tonight
3302009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightThe safety car will make an appearance at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix
3312009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightButton will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix
3322009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightA Brawn car will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix
3332009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightThe Lakers will have the edge at tonight's playoff
3362009-05-252009-05-26Andy1RightThe sun will rise
3372009-05-262009-05-26Bébhinn1WrongLakers will take down the Nuggets again tonight.
3382009-05-262009-05-27TwitterPredicts1WrongCalifornia's Supreme Court will overturn the ban on gay marriage
3392009-05-262009-08-14TwitterPredicts1RightThe senate will confirm, Sotomayor, Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court
3402009-05-272009-05-27TwitterPredicts1WrongCleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic tonight - Cavs will win
3412009-05-282011-05-27Lina5WrongGoogle will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years.
3422009-05-282010-01-06Lina1RightGoogle wave will be a new always open tab in my browser.
3432009-05-302009-09-15vishnushashank3RightButton will be the world champion
3442009-05-312009-06-07TwitterPredicts1WrongSerena Williams will win the 2009 French Open
3452009-05-312010-05-31TwitterPredicts4WrongThe Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer
3462009-05-312014-05-31crlosg29RightApple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years.
3472009-06-012010-06-01TwitterPredicts5WrongGoogle Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate
3482009-06-012009-12-31TwitterPredicts8RightThe recession will end this year
3492009-06-012011-06-01TwitterPredicts3WrongBuffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen
3502009-06-012009-08-01Andy1RightBillabong shares will increase by more that 10% within the next 2 months
3512009-06-022009-06-02CRobert2RightI will make it home before 7pm tonight
3522009-06-022009-05-31CRobert3WrongWe will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu.
3532009-06-032010-12-16joloughlin3WrongKelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010
3542009-06-042009-06-08Wes1RightThird generation iPhone will be announced at WWDC
3552009-06-042009-06-08Wes1RightThe release date for Snow Leopard will be announced at WWDC.
3562009-06-042009-08-28Wes1RightSnow Leopard will not feature a redone UI
3572009-06-042009-06-06CRobert1RightThat the timing function on prediction book won't be fixed to take account of "local" time in the next 2 days
3612009-06-102010-01-01Lina2WrongKevin Rose will have a date with Jennifer Aniston by the end of the year.
3642009-06-142009-06-21TwitterPredicts1RightEngland will reach the 2009 World Twenty20 semi-finals.
3652009-06-142009-06-15TwitterPredicts1WrongMagic will win, pushing the Lakers to game 6 tonight.
3662009-06-152009-06-15CRNewsReports2WrongQ4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back then gold and silver will move up greatly!
3672009-06-172020-01-01CRNewsReports©2WrongNorth Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency.
3682009-06-172009-12-15CRNewsReports©2WrongQ4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall.
3692009-06-222009-07-06TwitterPredicts1RightFederer will win Wimbledon 2009
3702009-06-222009-09-22TwitterPredicts2WrongWorld-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week).
3712009-06-222009-07-06TwitterPredicts2WrongWimbledon 2009 Men's Final: Federer V Murray
3722009-06-232009-12-23TwitterPredicts2RightJon & Kate Plus 8 - The show will go on, in some capacity
3732009-06-232010-06-23TwitterPredicts2WrongJon & Kate Plus 8 - Jon & Kate will get back together within a year
3742009-06-232010-06-23Faiste1RightL'OM sera-t-il champion de France en 2010 ?
3752009-06-242014-06-24scott.arbeitman6WrongConfig (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word
3772009-07-042009-07-05TwitterPredicts1WrongVenus Williams will make it three-in-a-row at the Wimbledon 2009 Women's Final
3782009-07-042012-02-01TwitterPredicts5WrongSarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign
3792009-07-052009-07-27TwitterPredicts1RightLance Armstrong will finish the Tour de France in the Top 5.
3802009-07-052009-07-27TwitterPredicts1WrongFabian Cancellara will finish the 2009 Tour de France in the Top 3
3812009-07-052009-07-05TwitterPredicts1RightSt. Kilda will beat Geelong today by fewer than 10 points.
3822009-07-302009-08-30TwitterPredicts1WrongMichael Schumacher will finish in the points at Valencia 2009
3832009-07-302009-08-23TwitterPredicts1WrongMichael Schumacher will beat Raikkonen at Valencia 2009
3842009-07-302009-11-01TwitterPredicts1WrongMichael Schumacher will finish the 2009 season in the Top 10
3852009-08-142009-08-21Frank1RightWill finish rewriting all Amirsys articles by now
3862009-08-312009-09-04captainpete1WithdrawnMatt will have banished his cold
3872009-08-312009-09-07captainpete5Wrongwe'll be experimenting with meat-spaced project management system
3882009-08-312009-09-07captainpete5Rightwe'll have finished refactoring variants into products
3892009-08-312009-09-07Wes4WrongRound 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed
3902009-08-312009-09-06Glenn5WrongI will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds
3912009-08-312009-09-07Tom1WrongMatt will report (@ the standup) that he has done 'admini' at least 3 times this week.
3922009-08-312009-09-06Matt1WrongAt least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday
3932009-08-312009-09-06Matt1WrongI will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand
3942009-09-072009-12-01Tom7WrongKando will be live first of december
3972009-09-072009-09-11Glenn7RightI will work Friday
3982009-09-072009-09-13Matt4WrongI will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand
3992009-09-072009-09-13Matt5WrongAt least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday
4002009-09-072009-09-11jon3RightI will make two more predictions before the weeks end.
4012009-09-072009-09-14captainpete6Wrongwe'll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach)
4022009-09-072009-09-14Wes4RightRound 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev.
4032009-09-082009-09-09jon2WrongI will have AWS servers built and ready for testing.
4042009-09-082009-09-12Matt1WrongI'll send Katrina some designs I'm happy with this week.
4052009-09-092009-09-23tansel5RightI will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing
4062009-09-142009-09-14Tom2RightEditing an order in plandeliver will be live at the end of today
4072009-09-142009-09-21Tom7WrongWe will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week
4082009-09-142009-09-21captainpete5RightI will have written and submitted my Trike profile
4092009-09-142009-09-14jon3RightI will have tests running against aws by the end of today.
4102009-09-142009-09-20Glenn2RightI will have adapted to subconsiously use caps lock instead of backspace (or ctrl-h) by this time next week
4112009-09-142009-09-24Wes6WrongRadiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep)
4122009-09-152009-09-21Matt3RightMy PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week.
4132009-09-152009-09-15Glenn1RightI have already made predictions in predictionbook
4142009-09-152009-09-21Glenn1RightPadding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened
4152009-09-212009-09-26Tom3WrongI will be on Oktoberfest saturday
4162009-09-212009-09-21Tom3RightRadiopaedia wont go live tday
4172009-09-212009-09-27Matt3WrongOB will go live on AWS this week
4182009-09-212009-09-27Matt3WrongLW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week
4192009-09-212009-09-24captainpete3Wrongwe will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday
4202009-09-222009-11-01Frank3WrongVolume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month
4212009-09-252010-11-16Frank4RightRadiopaedia's visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010
4222009-09-252011-01-16Frank2WrongI will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010
4232009-09-282009-10-04Glenn1RightI will spend less than 80% of my time at work being purely meta or purely meta-meta (or any purely meta^n)
4242009-09-282009-09-30Matt1RightG's analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday
4252009-09-282009-10-04Matt1WrongLW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week
4262009-09-282009-10-02Wes3RightRadiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week
4272009-09-282009-09-30captainpete1RightPete will have deployed his changes to PlanDeliver by the end of Tuesday
4302009-10-052009-10-16jon1WrongI will have puppet configured and in use by the end of next week.
4312009-10-132009-10-17tansel2WrongI will finish the Kudda video upload task by Thursday
4412009-10-142009-10-15uninverted9RightThe sun will rise tomorrow morning
4542009-10-142009-12-31InTrade6RightA federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009
4552009-10-142009-12-31InTrade3RightAn announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan
4562009-10-142011-10-31Jack17WrongThere will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011.
4572009-10-142010-06-30InTrade9RightNeither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010
4582009-10-142009-12-01InTrade1WithdrawnDonny Osmond and partner will not win Dancing with the Stars
4592009-10-142009-11-03mjgeddes1Wrong'Alcopop' to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing)
4602009-10-142012-09-16InTrade25RightSarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012
4612009-10-142009-12-31InTrade1RightMark Sanford will not depart as Governor of South Carolina before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009
4622009-10-142009-12-31InTrade4WrongDemocratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race
4632009-10-142014-01-01mjgeddes4WrongBayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014
4642009-10-142010-10-01Jack2RightLebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season.
4652009-10-142011-01-01max24WrongThe US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010.
4662009-10-142012-01-01max9WrongCivil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011.
4672009-10-142009-11-15Jack4RightFOX will not pick up the show "Dollhouse" for a third season.
4682009-10-142009-10-14Jack1RightI will fall asleep before 4 am.
4702009-10-142010-10-14bogdanb14RightThe sun will not become a nova during this year.
4712009-10-142010-10-14bogdanb26RightGeneral consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year.
4722009-10-142019-10-14bogdanb16RightGeneric AI won't happen in the next 10 years.
4732009-10-142040-01-01rwallace41A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.
4742009-10-142010-07-01Drahflow7RightGermany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010.
4882009-10-142011-01-01JamesMiller5WrongBy January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran.
4912009-10-142009-12-31InTrade1RightDemocratic Party Candidate will not win Virginia gubernatorial election
4922009-10-142009-12-31InTrade1RightUS GDP will not decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 (inclusive)
4932009-10-142009-12-31InTrade3RightDow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009
4942009-10-142009-12-31InTrade2RightDow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000
4952009-10-142009-12-31InTrade2RightDow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500
4962009-10-142009-12-31InTrade4WrongUS Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00%
4972009-10-142019-07-01Arenamontanus6WrongThe first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019.
4982009-10-142019-12-31Arenamontanus8RightThere will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019.
4992009-10-142012-12-31Arenamontanus6RightThere will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012.
5002009-10-142010-10-14Arenamontanus9WrongThere will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010.
5012009-10-142010-10-14Arenamontanus3WrongThere will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010.
5022009-10-142009-11-14Arenamontanus4WrongThere will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009.
5032009-10-142009-10-14Matt2WrongGlenn will arrive at Trike before 10am (GMT+10) today.
5042009-10-142010-01-01pre3WrongLily Allen will return to twitter before the year end
5052009-10-142009-10-28kess3r7WrongThis site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks.
5062009-10-142009-10-17arthurb1WrongCME's website will confirm that CME rule for electronic trading of ED futures gives indeed priority to official market makers over other users at a given price level.
5152009-10-152009-10-29jes51993WrongI'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks
5162009-10-152009-10-17jes51991RightI'll get a full night sleep at least once before the weekend.
5202009-10-152010-10-15jes51995WrongThe creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget.
5212009-10-152013-01-01jes519923WrongThe world will end in 2012
5262009-10-152009-12-15ChristianKl3WrongPredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months.
5272009-10-152012-12-31ChristianKl9WrongThere will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US.
5422009-10-152009-10-19im1WrongI will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend.
5472009-10-152009-10-16LauraABJ2RightI will make my flight
5482009-10-152019-10-15kess3r11WrongIran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years.
5492009-10-162010-01-01InTrade4WrongOne or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year.
5502009-10-162011-01-01InTrade6WrongRoman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year.
5512009-10-162010-07-01InTrade10RightOsama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010.
5522009-10-162010-07-01InTrade5RightThe President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010.
5552009-10-162018-01-01JamesMiller6RightOne year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets.
5562009-10-162017-01-01JamesMiller3WrongOne year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks.
5572009-10-162009-10-16Drahflow1RightI'll join at least one collegue of mine for lunch today.
5782009-10-172012-01-01anonym10WrongThere will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012.
5812009-10-172009-11-17anonym1RightI will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009.
5822009-10-172009-12-17anonym1WithdrawnI will make at least 5 predictions each week of the 2nd month since I started using Prediction Book
5832009-10-172019-01-01anonym3I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45.
5882009-10-172009-10-17Matt1RightWhen I turn on my brother's just upgraded macbook, it'll work.
5892009-10-172060-12-31ChristianKl14In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.
5902009-10-172070-12-31ChristianKl25In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.
5952009-10-172020-01-01komponisto33RightNo military draft in the United States before 2020.
6012009-10-173009-10-17TheScholar19Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.
6042009-10-172010-01-04Philo1WrongChicago Bears will make playoffs.
6052009-10-172009-11-01anonym5RightPrediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load.
6062009-10-172010-01-01anonym2WrongA significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not.
6072009-10-172009-11-01anonym2WrongBy Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm
6082009-10-172009-10-18MBlume1RightOrchard Supply and Hardware will have a fire extinguisher which they can sell us.
6092009-10-182009-10-19Larks1WrongI will finish my problem sheets on Calculous of One Variable, do the pre-reading for Logic and Reasoning and Proofs, and at least one of the non-compulsary pure questions, by the end of today.
6102009-10-182009-10-23Larks1WrongI will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting
6112009-10-182010-07-16Larks1RightI will pass my Mods
6592009-10-192009-10-19Tobias_M3RightThe mind body problem will not be solved.
6632009-10-192025-01-12Jennifer14Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.
6642009-10-192010-07-02freyley3WrongThere will be a public option in the upcoming health reform
6652009-10-192015-10-19freyley2RightIf the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015.
6662009-10-192014-10-19freyley3WithdrawnIf the Public Option passes, it will cost at least $400/month for the 25-35 bracket to join it by a year after it opens.
6672009-10-192012-01-20jshiga2WithdrawnA gun will discharge during a town hall meeting sometime during Obama's first term.
6712009-10-202009-10-24freyley1WrongThe kittens will still have giardia.
6722009-10-202009-10-22freyley1WrongMartin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found.
6732009-10-202009-10-22freyley1WrongMartin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found.
6802009-10-202010-10-02jes51996WrongWe will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October.
6852009-10-213009-10-21TheScholar12Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.
7032009-10-262009-10-30Wes2RightThe Radiopaedia content cleanup will be finished by the end of the week
7102009-10-282009-11-08refragable1WrongI will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009.
7112009-10-282010-01-01refragable2Wrongmontgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches.
7422009-11-022009-11-07Matt2WrongBell/Carry sites will be live by Friday.
7432009-11-022009-12-07Frank1Rightcombined iphone app sales for November > 250
7662009-11-132010-11-13robo45h2RightIran's current regime will continue its nuclear program -- or be overthrown -- rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia).
7672009-11-142010-05-01philology1WrongI will attend Reed College
7682009-11-142010-05-01olimay1WrongBy 2010-05-01, Oliver will have paid rent for a dwelling place not owned by an immediate family member, grandparent, or first cousin for a period beginning after 2009-11-14, duration longer than 28 days.
7692009-11-142010-02-01olimay2WrongBy 2010-02-01 Oliver will have paid the minimum monthly amount requested as indicated on the Student Loan Corporation statements for 2010-Jan using his own, unborrowed funds.
7762009-11-142011-01-01olimay2RightAll my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011.
7772009-11-142010-01-01olimay2WrongI'll make at least $500 from now until the rest of the year.
7782009-11-142010-01-01olimay1RightI won't directly pay any doctor, doctor's office, or hospital any amount of money for medical services rendered to me for the rest of this year.
7792009-11-142009-12-01olimay1WrongI'll see Eric Li in person on two separate days before the end of November.
7802009-11-142009-12-06olimay2WrongI'll publish at least 15 (different) posts on False Symmetry before my birthday.
7812009-11-142009-11-14olimay1WrongI'll make it on time (within 7 minutes of 15:00 UTC, by Sprint Mobile network time) to the OB/LW NYC meetup on 2009-11-14.
7822009-11-142009-11-21olimay1WrongClaire and I will go to the Met Museum of Art sometime on 2009-11-20.
7832009-11-142009-11-28olimay1WrongI will get at least one paid freelance design or programming job in the next two weeks.
7842009-11-142009-12-06olimay2WrongI will write and publish one complete short story on the internet (public internet) before my birthday.
7852009-11-142009-11-21olimay1WrongI will go to bed (and fall asleep) before 5AM every day next week, which I'll say starts Sunday.
7862009-11-142012-03-01olimay2WithdrawnTwitter will report profits for every quarter in 2011.
7872009-11-142009-11-14olimay4WrongI'll fall asleep before 5AM today.
7882009-11-142009-12-06olimay3WrongI will weigh less than 170 lbs on my birthday and in my birthday suit.
7892009-11-142010-01-01olimay1RightI will order food from a restaurant with the word "Chinese" somewhere on its printed menu no fewer than 3 times before the end of this year.
7902009-11-142009-11-14olimay1WrongI will be in New York City by noon today.
7932009-11-142009-11-15olimay1WrongPaddy will give me or have had prepared a check payable to me by the end of today.
7942009-11-142010-01-01popojala4RightI won't get the swine flu during this year.
7952009-11-142009-11-15popojala1WrongMy mother or father will call me today.
8262009-11-162009-11-27ledflyd1WrongDuring the next two weeks, at least half of my experimental data will be unusable for our presentation on Dec. 2, 2009.
8272009-11-162009-11-26ledflyd2RightI will eat Thanksgiving dinner at my Aunt's house AND will not ingest any Turkey.
8282009-11-162009-11-25ledflyd1WrongThere will be no heat in my lab for at least half the days over the next week and a half
8292009-11-162010-02-08ledflyd2WithdrawnI will be fired from or quit my job on or before Feb 8th, 2010
8302009-11-162009-12-31ledflyd1RightI will drink at least 40 different beers before the end of the year
8682009-11-182159-11-18Citizen55316Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.
8692009-11-182010-02-07hoodoo22Rightsaints win Superbowl
8812009-11-222009-11-28Tom4RightOur TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week
8822009-11-222009-11-27jon4WrongI will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week.
8832009-11-232009-11-23brownguy221RightI will finish planning lessons before I go to bed
8872009-11-252009-12-03blorh1RightIntegration with a certain financial package will cause pain on K by the end of next week
8882009-11-252010-03-15Pavitra6WrongThe "LessWrong Singularity article" will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/
8892009-11-302009-11-30dgoodlad2WrongThe DSL modem will arrive today
8902009-11-302009-12-05dgoodlad2WrongI will go to the gym every day this week (Mon-Fri)
8912009-11-302009-12-30captainpete4WrongWe'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution.
8942009-11-302009-12-06Tom2Righti will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend
9122009-12-062009-12-11Tom1WrongTansel will be @ the doctor at least once this week
9132009-12-062009-12-12dgoodlad1WrongThe weather will get hot and sunny again for the weekend (30+ degrees)
9142009-12-082019-12-08scott.arbeitman19WrongUnable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter.
9172009-12-122009-12-12olimay1WrongI will make it to the Saturday 2009 Dec 12th OBLW meetup.
9182009-12-132009-12-18dgoodlad2WrongWe will have K open to the 7 friendly dentists by the end of the week
9192009-12-132009-12-31Tom2RightThere will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :(
9202009-12-132009-12-19Tom1Wrong50% of Trike staff will be drunk @ the christmas party...
9212009-12-162009-12-17Tom1WrongI will need 6 hours to implement the K feature 1895261
9222009-12-212009-12-23Wes2RightPlan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break
9232009-12-222010-01-01Matt2WrongSomeone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day.
9242009-12-262010-07-01Ben Doherty2WrongI will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st
9252009-12-272009-12-28Ben Doherty1RightMy visitors will not arrive before 12pm
9352009-12-302009-12-30Ben Doherty1Wrongmore than 4 chavs will get on my bus before I get off
9392010-01-052010-06-05PotatoDumplings1WrongI get into Harvey Mudd
9402010-01-052010-06-05PotatoDumplings1WrongI get into CalTech.
9412010-01-052010-06-05PotatoDumplings2WrongI get into MIT
9752010-01-152010-01-22KatjaGrace1WrongI will post a blog post on anthropics within one week
9872010-01-210139-01-01senile2WrongI like smoked gouda
9882010-01-252010-03-29Frank2Rightthe bub will be a boy
9892010-01-262010-04-06Jack1RightThe University of Kentucky Men's basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship.
10222010-02-092010-01-03rosy1WrongMelbourne Victory to win A-Legue season 2009-2010
10232010-02-092010-06-16taticorr1WrongBrazil will win the world cup 2010
10262010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling2WrongI will predict that Gossip Girl will not last 2 more seasons on T.V
10272010-02-092010-02-01Holly2WrongKhloe Kardashian is pregnant
10282010-02-092013-01-01kimmjaynedowling6RightThe world will not end in 2012
10292010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling1WrongA new social networking site will overtake Facebook as the most used website by October 2010
10302010-02-092010-12-16Holly2WrongNicole Richie for a third baby in 2010
10312010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling1RightAvatar will stay in the top 10 Box Office till March 2010
10322010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling1WrongKaty Perry and Russel Brand will have a baby boy in October 2010
10332010-02-102010-12-31sharidanbowman3RightTiger Woods and Elin Nordegren will seperate within the year
10342010-02-102010-06-16Holly1RightPosh spice, Victoria Beckham fashion label will hit an all time low in 2010
10352010-02-102012-02-10kimmjaynedowling3WrongMiley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana
10362010-02-102012-12-30sharidanbowman6WrongBill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3
10372010-02-102010-02-01rosy2WrongPrediction Book will be the next big thing to hit!!!!!!!!!
10412010-02-102010-02-01kimmjaynedowling3WrongRight after Avatar leaves cinemas, another movie with the title Avatar in it will be released
10422010-02-102010-03-07mavmetropolis1RightJeff Bridges will win an Oscar for Best Actor in 2010
10432010-02-102010-02-10dani2Rightpretty sure that dani is the greatest.
10442010-02-102010-02-10YOUNGMULLAH1Righta tree will fall on my face
10452010-02-102010-02-10jimbob71WrongCollingwood will make the grand final this year
10462010-02-102010-02-01kieran901WrongLe Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012
10472010-02-102010-02-22harmonix2WrongAustralia will beat West Indies 5-0 in the current one day series
10492010-02-102010-07-15akavc151WrongDwight Howard and Vince carter will lead Orlando Magic back to the NBA finals
10512010-02-102010-02-17al3xal3x1Withdrawnhi (:
10522010-02-102010-12-31sammi1Righttupac is still alive
10532010-02-102010-02-10YOUNGMULLAH1Rightmy mum will walk in on me
10542010-02-102010-06-16widz1WrongLeBron will win MVP
10552010-02-102010-02-17al3xal3x1Withdrawnchris lee is chinese
10562010-02-102010-02-01kieran901WrongRichmond Tigers will win the next 3 premierships in a row
10572010-02-102010-02-01deaz3RightSpain will win the world cup 2010
10582010-02-102010-09-27harmonix1Wrong2010 Grand Final will be Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs
10592010-02-102010-03-07wednesday1WrongCarey Mulligan will win Best Actress
10622010-02-102010-02-01dani1Rightjimmy jam will come out of the closet.
10652010-02-102010-02-18makemulababy1WrongTFU will be roooccckkkinnn on the W/E BBBBBLLAAAAHHHHHHHHHH
10662010-02-102010-02-10al3xal3x1RightThe world won't end in 2012
10672010-02-102010-02-10Monec1WrongMarketing will become one of the most popular course to study
10682010-02-102010-02-10deaz1WrongSushi Monger this lunch
10712010-02-102010-02-20reymartfc2Rightthere will be more disruptions on myki system
10722010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob1Rightchuck norris will happen
10732010-02-102010-02-11melmel2WrongAmerican president obama will screw up politically
10742010-02-102010-09-16Olyscott1WrongSt Kilda will win the premiership in 2010
10752010-02-102010-06-16nicolas3RightThe Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season
10762010-02-102013-02-10melmel4WrongMicheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac
10772010-02-102010-02-10mikeykaka2Wrongi will be a millionaire
10782010-02-102010-02-17melmel3RightAsian gangs in Melbourne will not cause trouble this weekend
10792010-02-102012-12-31Phil1RightThe world won't end in 2012, unless Chuck Norris says so
10802010-02-102010-07-16christian2RightAustralia vs Greece 2010 World Cup Final
10812010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob2RightMatthew Stokes will not learn from his mistake
10822010-02-102010-02-11melmel1Wrongi will have sex tonight
10832010-02-102010-02-10reymartfc2Rightjapanese people will be replaced by their own robots
10842010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob2WrongAustralia will win 5-0 against west indies
10852010-02-102011-01-01kassey2WrongAustralia will change drinking age to 21
10862010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob1WithdrawnI WILL BE WATCHING MELMEL HAVE SEX TONIGHT
10872010-02-102010-02-11melmel2Wrongis going to have sex with herself cos of phil
10882010-02-102010-02-10Olyscott1RightMelmel will get banned from prediction book by the end of the class
10892010-02-102010-02-10reymartfc1Wrongwhaling aint gonna be prohibited because japanese people will build a large aquarium for them whales to breed
10902010-02-102010-02-10vivaladam3Rightmen will continue to forget about valentine's day
10952010-02-142010-01-01magic1Wrong35 miles around the coast of Peterhead in Scotland, the sea bed will collapse causing a massive tidal wave which will kill millions of people. It will affect the United Kingdom hugely as well as other countries. The waters will travel down as far as Nor
10962010-02-152010-03-15Jack3WrongPrediction book will get some desperately needed moderation.
10972010-02-152012-12-16skinnyasianbitch1WithdrawnThe World will NOT end in 2012
10982010-02-152010-07-07skinnyasianbitch2WrongAustralia Vs Italy in World Cup Final
10992010-02-162010-02-16jay_pitman1Rightandrew stellas will not hit the wall from one side of the room with a paper aeroplane on the full
11442010-02-232010-03-12thechadisgreat1RightLot of Australian cricket players will decide to play in this season's Indian Premier League (IPL)
11452010-02-232011-04-16thechadisgreat2WrongThe Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM
11462010-02-232010-07-29maash2WrongThe Movie Dear John will be this years The Notebook
11472010-02-232010-09-16MrHen2RightFringe will be renewed for a third season
11482010-02-232010-07-16MrHen1WrongFlashFoward will be renewed for a second season
11652010-02-282010-03-01cointelligence1RightStefan Pernar will not appear out of his own navel
11662010-02-282010-03-08tiffany1Wrong7th of march will be the best day ever
11692010-02-282011-02-01d4033RightIf Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game.
11702010-02-282010-03-07d4031WrongBrad Pitt will come out of the closet.
11712010-02-282012-01-02d4037WrongCannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012
11722010-02-282011-01-05d4031RightThe Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010.
11732010-02-282010-03-14d4032WrongBarack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks
11742010-02-282010-03-14d4031WrongSpencer Tunick will be charged with mass-scale indecent exposure
11752010-03-012010-06-01d4031RightLara Bingle and Michael Clarke will split up in the next three months
11762010-03-012010-03-08cointelligence1RightCointelligence will get bored and quit
11772010-03-012010-03-07cointelligence1RightSky Burial in the WA
11802010-03-032010-03-01DianneD3WrongTwitter will disappear by the end of the year.
11832010-03-082010-03-09ledflyd1RightI will log onto prediction book again tomorrow
11842010-03-082010-03-13mark.p1RightRoxanne Parlour's 3rd Birthday this friday night will be messy.
11852010-03-092010-03-09mark.p1Rightchris lee will leave the class to take a phone call in the next 10 minutes.. again.
11862010-03-092010-03-21guru1RightMelbourne Victory will win the A league championship
11872010-03-092010-03-09ledflyd1Righti will leave work by 1 o'clock to go eat lunch
11882010-03-142010-09-26mktg20101WrongDogs will win the AFL flag this year
11922010-03-152010-09-15GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1RightVelvet will make a comeback
11932010-03-152010-06-21GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide5RightPurple eye shadow is going to be HOT this season!
11962010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor2Right'Hawks' will defeat 'Demons' in Round 1
11972010-03-172010-03-25AFL_Predictor2Wrong'Tigers' will defeat 'Blues' in Round 1
11982010-03-172010-03-25AFL_Predictor1Right'Blues' will defeat 'Tigers' in Round 1
11992010-03-172010-03-26AFL_Predictor3Right'Cats' will defeat 'Bombers' in Round 1
12002010-03-172010-03-26AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Bombers' will defeat 'Cats' in Round 1
12012010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Swans' will defeat 'Saints' in Round 1
12022010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Right'Saints' will defeat 'Swans' in Round 1
12032010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Right'Lions' will defeat 'Eagles' in Round 1
12042010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Eagles' will defeat 'Lions' in Round 1
12052010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Power' will defeat 'Kangaroos' in Round 1
12062010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Right'Kangaroos' will defeat 'Power' in Round 1
12072010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Bulldogs' will defeat 'Magpies' in Round 1
12082010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor2Right'Magpies' will defeat 'Bulldogs' in Round 1
12092010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Right'Dockers' will defeat 'Crows' in Round 1
12102010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor2Wrong'Crows' will defeat 'Dockers' in Round 1
12112010-03-172010-03-21mastrinc143Wrongwill bill get the fabled boxo on saturday night?
12122010-03-172010-05-27guru1RightHugo is the chosen one because he is the only one who sees Jacob!
12132010-03-172010-03-17monamur1WrongAaron will become the follower of Jacob and will be the ruler of the island.
12142010-03-172010-03-18kristian2Righttomorrow will be sunny?
12152010-03-172010-05-16thdurp2WrongKevin Rudd will resign in April 2010.
12162010-03-182011-03-18GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide2WrongTavi is actually JT Leroy's newest incarnation.
12172010-03-182010-04-16al3xal3x2WrongGeorge Lucas is my father!
12182010-03-182010-05-16NATASHA2Righti will end up going on a holiday
12212010-03-202010-03-27ally1Righti predict i won't use this site again.
12222010-03-202010-12-31Chris312RightMuse will tour Australia again by the end of the year
12232010-03-202010-05-09EPL_Predictor1RightChelsea will win the English Premier League
12242010-03-202010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongManchester United will win the English Premier league
12252010-03-202010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongArsenal will win the English Premierleague
12262010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongManchester City will make the Champions League
12272010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongLiverpool will make the Champions League
12282010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1RightTottenham will make the Champions League
12292010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongAston Villa will make the Champions League
12302010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor3RightPortsmouth, Hull and Burnley to be relegated
12312010-03-212010-06-23predicted7WrongThe Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup.
12322010-03-212010-03-22wednesday1RightMy train home will be delayed by more than 3 minutes today.
12332010-03-222011-01-31predicted2RightHealth Care Bill will be passed in the United States
12342010-03-222010-06-18kassey3WrongPaul Manoukian will get facebook.
12352010-03-222010-06-16Olivia2WrongThat one of my best friends will get married in june this year!
12362010-03-222010-05-22GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1RightTommy Ton of Jac & Jil blog will head down under for Rosemount Australian Fashion Week.
12372010-03-222010-05-22GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongBlogger Susie Bubble of Style Bubble is headed to Sydney for fashion week in May.
12382010-03-222015-03-22alicewilson4WrongLady Gaga will dominate the pop music industry for the next 5 years
12392010-03-222010-03-29p12WrongAlonso will win the Australian F1 Grand Prix
12402010-03-232010-09-13tjross2WrongIowa State University will beat University of Iowa in football next season
12412010-03-232010-12-31tjross7RightThere will be another major natural disaster before the years over
12422010-03-232010-03-30mavmetropolis2RightMav will find out what the name of the gorgeous red head is...you know, the one who works at Gloria Jeans in the M:Town. Morning coffee...it's the highlight of my day ;)
12432010-03-232012-11-06tjross17RightBarack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion)
12442010-03-232012-12-31tjross8WrongUSA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012
12452010-03-232020-12-31tjross20United States will invade Australia and take over
12462010-03-232010-08-23GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide3WrongWe'll be seeing a lot of fur vests this winter.
12492010-03-242010-09-16mktg20101Wrongbombers will finish in top 8 this season
12502010-03-242010-12-30Marz2RightThe share price of gold is going to increase by 5% by the end of 2010.
12512010-03-242010-04-27Marz1RightNicole will win Americans next top model, petites version.
12522010-03-242010-04-10EPL_Predictor1RightAston Villa will narrowly lose to Chelsea in the FA cup Semi final
12532010-03-242010-04-11EPL_Predictor1RightPortsmouth will defeat Tottenham in the FA Cup semi-final
12562010-03-252010-05-09EPL_Predictor1RightChelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham will make up the top 4 of the league
12592010-03-282010-07-01melissasajeh1WithdrawnWill Eclipse be as good as Twilight and New Moon? Will Bella choose friendship with werewolf Jacob or vampire Edward?
12602010-03-282010-07-01melissasajeh1WrongEclipse will be as good as Twilight and New Moon and Bella will choose Edward!
12612010-03-292010-04-30melissasajeh4RightIron Man 2 will be the top 10 movie in 2010
12622010-03-292010-07-01melissasajeh1WrongAaron will get back to the island
12652010-03-312010-04-12bubble1Rightthe easter holidays will go super fast!!
12662010-03-312010-04-01urban1Wrongi will fool people tomorrow!!
12672010-03-312010-04-30mela231WrongYES!, THE ALBUM WILL BE A HIT!
12682010-04-012010-04-01saralehman2WrongPamela Anderson willl win Dancing with the stars!
12692010-04-022010-04-02james1WrongThey will never cure cancer in our lifetimes.
12742010-04-052010-05-11Frank1Wrongreach 500 facebook fans by may 10st
12752010-04-092010-04-30melly1WrongIvy will win so you think you can dance 2010
12762010-04-122010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongWinter warmth will be Thigh- High this season
12792010-04-132010-08-13Marz5WrongInterest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months.
12802010-04-182010-04-26Frank1WrongSunday traffic next week with be >2000
12812010-04-182011-07-02Frank5RightNeither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months
12822010-04-182010-04-19Frank1RightColin will not come over tonight
12832010-04-192010-04-02predicted2RightTravel to Europe will be delayed for a week due to Volcanic ash.
12842010-04-192010-05-20akavc152WrongMohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean
12852010-04-192010-10-01chrisknows1WrongBlackburn will win the Eastern Footy League premiership
12862010-04-192010-04-26chrisknows1WrongChannel 9's pathetic tribute to murdered murderer Carl Williams will rate obscenely well.
12872010-04-212010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongBright and tight will light up this winter.
12882010-04-212010-05-08predicted3RightShogun Rua will defeat Lyoto Machida at UFC 113
12892010-04-212011-07-02dusty.brouwer1RightI predict the car that James Bond will drive in the next movie will not be an aston martin.
12902010-04-222010-06-02Frank1RightWill crack 250,000 pageviews in may
13232010-04-262010-05-03Frank1WrongSunday 2nd may will have more than 2000 visitors
13242010-05-012010-05-10mario12WrongIn a few weeks, Dota Allstars 6.67c Ai will be released...
13252010-05-032010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongPin it
13262010-05-032010-05-16mktg20101RightChelsea win will the cup
13272010-05-042010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide2WrongMilitary style big bang this winter
13282010-05-042010-06-12World_Cup_predictor2WrongSouth Africa will lose to Mexico in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup
13292010-05-042010-06-12World_Cup_predictor2WrongFrance will defeat Uruguay
13302010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor1RightArgentina will defeat Nigeria
13312010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor2WrongGreece will Defeat Korea
13322010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor1WrongEngland will defeat USA
13332010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor1RightSlovenia will defeat Algeria
13342010-05-042010-12-04DianneD3RightJustin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year.
13372010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1RightSlashs new album will flop!
13382010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1RightMuse will come back down under to do another Australian tour before the end of the year
13392010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1WrongGorillaz new album will go platinum
13402010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1WrongThe killers front man will debut a solo album
13412010-05-052010-05-05ravneetrox1RightWill Jay ever make it to the candy mountain?
13422010-05-052010-05-10EPL_Predictor1WrongChelsea will drop points against Wigan and fail to win the EPL
13432010-05-052010-05-10EPL_Predictor1WrongManchester United will defeat Stoke and lift the EPL again
13442010-05-062010-12-16ravneetrox1WrongWill Karishma find a boyfriend by the end of this year
13452010-05-062020-05-06ravneetrox10WrongThe Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020
13462010-05-062018-05-06ravneetrox1WrongMaash will be married by the age of 28 with one child
13472010-05-062010-06-16ravneetrox1RightIndia will win the T20 world cup
13482010-05-062030-05-06ravneetrox3WrongBin Laden and USA are working together
13492010-05-092010-06-16World_Cup_predictor1RightChile will defeat Honduras
13502010-05-112015-12-31dakyne5WrongThe spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015.
13512010-05-112010-12-31dakyne5WrongArena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010.
13522010-05-112010-12-31dakyne5RightThe spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010.
13532010-05-112010-12-31dakyne4RightCalifornia will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010.
13542010-05-112010-09-26dusty.brouwer2WrongI predict Collingwood will win the AFL Grand final in 2010.
13552010-05-122010-05-12f21Rightmax brenner will make the best waflees today
13652010-05-302010-06-01Frank1Wrongthe chick from big is not the blond chick from weeds
13662010-06-012010-09-01Pie4Life1RightCollingwood will finish top 4
13672010-06-012010-09-01Pie4Life2WrongRichmond will win the 2010 AFL wooden spoon
13682010-06-012010-06-25Pie4Life2WrongAustralia will at least make the quarter finals of the 2010 World Cup
13692010-06-032010-06-05wednesday2WrongSam Stosur will win the French Open!
13702010-06-042010-06-13maskath@hotmail.com3WithdrawnLakers will win NBA Finals
13712010-06-042010-12-31maskath@hotmail.com3RightAnother beloved celebrity will die before the year is over
13752010-06-112010-12-16Matt Newport3RightThe price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months.
13762010-06-132017-06-01Houshalter5RightAnother company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo.
13772010-06-132012-12-26Houshalter28RightThe world will not end December 25, 2012.
13782010-06-192010-06-19maskath@hotmail.com1RightLakers will win NBA Finals
13832010-06-222010-06-22vhistory1RightSouth Africa will beat France
13862010-06-272011-01-16Frank2RightJulia Gillard will win the next federal election.
13892010-07-072010-07-09Jack1WrongLebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season.
14162010-07-292029-01-01gwern14By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test.
14172010-07-292030-01-01gwern12“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”
14182010-07-292012-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect.”
14192010-07-292010-12-31gwern2Wrong“By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.”
14202010-07-292150-01-01gwern14"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."
14212010-07-292020-01-01gwern9Right"By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature."
14222010-07-292022-12-31gwern5"In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation."
14232010-07-292025-01-01gwern8"By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists."
14242010-07-292015-06-30gwern5Right“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.”
14252010-07-292025-01-01gwern4“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.”
14262010-07-292025-01-01gwern6By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA
14272010-07-292012-01-31gwern6Right“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.”
14282010-07-292012-09-10gwern4Wrong"Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees."
14292010-07-292108-12-31gwern7"In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions."
14302010-07-292018-01-31gwern4Right"Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses."
14312010-07-292020-12-31gwern5"By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as
14322010-07-292018-12-31gwern5Wrong“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.”
14332010-07-292025-12-07gwern9"The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public."
14392010-07-302050-01-01gwern4“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.”
14422010-07-302020-01-01gwern10“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”
14432010-07-302100-01-01gwern3“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.”
14442010-07-302012-12-31gwern1Right“By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.”
14452010-07-302020-01-01gwern7Wrong“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel - at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.”
14462010-07-302015-01-01gwern6Right“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.”
14472010-07-302024-01-01gwern2“That by 2024 "artificial" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.”
14482010-07-302030-01-01gwern4“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.”
14492010-07-302020-01-01gwern2Right“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.”
14502010-07-302012-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.”
14512010-07-302040-01-01gwern9“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine
14522010-07-302052-01-01gwern11“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”
14532010-07-302020-01-01gwern10Right“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.”
14542010-07-302050-01-01gwern3“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.”
14552010-07-302070-01-01gwern3“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.”
14562010-07-302150-01-01gwern11“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”
14572010-07-302025-12-31gwern2“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory - as described in Marshall McLuhan's "Tetrad" mod
14582010-07-302150-01-01gwern9In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.
14592010-07-302050-01-01gwern5“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”
14602010-07-302020-01-01gwern6Wrong“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or "field propulsion-type" aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.”
14612010-07-302013-12-31gwern3Right“Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not
14622010-07-302025-01-01gwern7“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”
14632010-07-302103-01-01gwern3“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.”
14642010-07-302025-01-01gwern2“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.”
14652010-07-302100-01-01gwern3“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.”
14662010-07-302060-01-01gwern3“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”
14672010-07-302085-01-01gwern7“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”
14682010-07-302103-01-01gwern4“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.”
14692010-07-302063-01-01gwern3“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.”
14702010-07-302203-01-01gwern6“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”
14712010-07-302015-01-01gwern3Wrong“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.”
14722010-07-302018-12-31gwern1Wrong“"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."”
14732010-07-302104-01-01gwern9“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”
14742010-07-302020-01-01gwern5Wrong“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.”
14752010-07-302020-01-01gwern5Wrong“By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.”
14762010-07-302024-12-31gwern3“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024.”
14772010-07-302020-01-01gwern5Wrong“That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane
14782010-07-302040-01-01gwern10“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”
14812010-07-302025-12-31gwern3“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d
14832010-07-302100-01-01gwern3“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.”
14842010-07-302101-12-31gwern3“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental
14852010-07-302101-12-31gwern4"In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius."
14862010-07-302010-10-28dakyne2RightAnti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed).
14872010-07-312015-12-31gwern2“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.”
14882010-07-312012-12-31gwern1Wrong“If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of U
14892010-07-312100-01-01gwern6“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo
14902010-07-312015-01-01gwern1Wrong“By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside
14912010-07-312013-12-31gwern1Wrong“Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI.”
14922010-07-312024-12-31gwern8“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”
14932010-07-312040-01-01gwern6“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”
14942010-07-312012-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete”
14952010-07-312030-01-01gwern13“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”
14962010-07-312100-01-01gwern3Right“An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.”
14972010-07-312012-09-30gwern5Wrong“Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.”
14982010-08-012036-01-01gwern4“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.”
14992010-08-012056-12-31gwern4“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years”
15002010-08-012016-12-31gwern4Wrong“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.”
15012010-08-012050-01-01gwern6“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”
15022010-08-012010-12-31gwern2Wrong“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010”
15032010-08-012025-01-01gwern7“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”
15042010-08-012319-01-01gwern4“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.”
15052010-08-012100-01-01gwern9“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”
15062010-08-012015-12-31gwern1Wrong“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.”
15072010-08-012035-01-01gwern3“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.”
15082010-08-012025-01-01gwern6“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”
15092010-08-022020-01-01gwern9Wrong“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the "Second" or "New Renaissance."”
15102010-08-022030-01-01gwern10“China will break apart by 2030”
15112010-08-022018-12-31gwern3Wrong“Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and "Western World"”
15122010-08-022050-01-01gwern24“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”
15132010-08-022036-01-01gwern4“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d
15142010-08-022015-01-01gwern3Right“No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and c
15152010-08-022050-01-01gwern13China will land a man on Mars by 2050.
15162010-08-022015-01-01gwern5Wrong“Immortal mice by 2015”
15172010-08-022061-01-01gwern4“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo
15182010-08-022023-12-31gwern5“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.”
15192010-08-022020-01-01gwern7Wrong“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.”
15202010-08-022010-11-09gwern1Wrong“The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.”
15212010-08-022023-12-31gwern4“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.”
15222010-08-022035-01-01gwern22“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”
15232010-08-022010-12-31gwern2Wrong“In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.”
15242010-08-022018-01-01gwern14Wrong“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.”
15252010-08-022030-06-08gwern5“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called "Hello, world!", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”
15262010-08-022040-01-01gwern12“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”
15272010-08-022016-01-01gwern2Right“Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades”
15282010-08-022015-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.”
15292010-08-022011-01-01gwern2Wrong“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” --Jonathan M. Rothberg
15302010-08-022016-12-31gwern1Wrong“By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.”
15312010-08-022100-01-01gwern7“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”
15322010-08-022025-01-01gwern8“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”
15332010-08-022050-12-31gwern11“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”
15342010-08-022025-01-01gwern8“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”
15352010-08-022025-01-01gwern9“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”
15362010-08-022025-01-01gwern4“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.”
15372010-08-022025-01-01gwern8“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”
15382010-08-022025-01-01gwern5“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”
15392010-08-022023-01-01gwern4“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.”
15402010-08-022013-11-06gwern2Wrong“The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.”
15412010-08-022050-01-01gwern5“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.”
15422010-08-022020-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture”
15432010-08-022030-01-01gwern5“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”
15442010-08-022035-01-01gwern2“There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.”
15452010-08-022049-12-31gwern4“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.”
15462010-08-022011-12-31gwern1Withdrawn“By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime.”
15472010-08-022025-12-31gwern7“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”
15482010-08-022011-12-31gwern7Wrong“California state government will dissolve in default.”
15492010-08-022013-12-31gwern3Wrong“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other
15502010-08-022014-01-01gwern5Wrong“By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.”
15512010-08-022015-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.”
15522010-08-022013-01-01gwern1Wrong“By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.”
15532010-08-022050-01-01gwern8“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”
15542010-08-022050-01-01gwern10“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”
15552010-08-022012-01-01gwern2Wrong“By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8
15562010-08-022020-01-01gwern5WrongBy 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010).
15572010-08-032016-03-07gwern2Wrong"I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years." --Jeremy Grantham
15582010-08-032011-06-01gwern2Wrong"Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy." --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
15592010-08-032011-07-07gwern3Wrong"Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months" --Beth Lynn Eicher
15602010-08-032017-08-07gwern8Wrong"I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years." --Jason Kottke
15612010-08-032010-12-28gwern1Wrong"I've got to think this device [iPad] would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin." --Michael Scalisi
15622010-08-032010-08-10gwern1Wrong"10 startups i think will be acquired soon: evernote, posterous/tumblr, twitter, animoto, tweetdeck/seesmic, stardoll, etsy, apture. agree?" --Ouriel Odhayon
15632010-08-032021-01-01gwern3"Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year" --Robert Prechter
15642010-08-032015-06-15gwern2Wrong"Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years." --Nouriel Roubini
15652010-08-032011-01-01gwern1Wrong"10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state"
15662010-08-032014-12-31gwern1Wrong"EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics."
15672010-08-042012-06-06gwern8Wrong"The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” --Ted Ritter
15682010-08-042012-03-02gwern3Wrong"At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010." --Nate Silver
15692010-08-042012-01-01gwern1Wrong"The Mediterranean bluefin breeding population will disappear by 2012 under the current fishing regime." --Sergi Tudela
15702010-08-042014-06-10gwern1Wrong"The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years." --James Howard Kunstler
15712010-08-042010-12-31gwern2Wrong"the Apple tablet will be a flop next year" --Scott Moritz
15722010-08-042021-01-01gwern5"We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem." --Peter Diamandis
15732010-08-042014-05-31gwern4Wrong"Regarding access to the Internet: "Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right."" --Cory Doctorow
15742010-08-042010-12-31gwern1RightMicrosoft will release a variant of the XBox 360 bundled with Natal next Fall.
15752010-08-042010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market."
15762010-08-052017-04-18gwern2Wrong"The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. "I don't think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years' time."" --Tyler Cowen
15772010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Budget car rental brand will be eliminated in favor of Avis" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15782010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Right"GM will close the Saturn brand" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15792010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Esquire magazine will fold" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15802010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Gap will close Old Navy" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15812010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Architectural Digest Magazine will fold" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15822010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Chrysler brand will be discontinued, Jeep & Dodge will remain" --Douglas McIntyre
15832010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Right"United Airlines will merge with a competitor and the brand will disappear" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15842010-08-052012-01-01gwern3Wrong"There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012." (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) --Seth Godin
15852010-08-052011-05-01gwern3Wrong"About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone." --Michael Wolff
15862010-08-052010-10-21gwern1Wrong"NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now." --Michael Wolff
15872010-08-072015-08-06gwern4Right“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” --Bill Gates
15882010-08-092015-08-09gwern6RightVinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.
15892010-08-092011-01-10gwern1Wrong"[Peter] Schiff sees a multiyear recession ahead marked by rampant inflation, a steadily weakening dollar, soaring commodities prices, slumping U.S. stock indexes, and falling wages."
15902010-08-092011-02-01gwern1WrongMoneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmadinejad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential. --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
15912010-08-092010-12-31gwern2RightIran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
15922010-08-092012-12-17gwern1Wrong"[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up." --Nate Silver
15932010-08-092011-01-01gwern1RightBy 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon. --Bruce Buena de Mesquita
15942010-08-092013-03-31gwern2Wrong"This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don't see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years." --Bill Gary
15952010-08-092012-01-01gwern3WrongAustralia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. --Clive Matthew-Wilson
15962010-08-092012-01-01gwern1Right"Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession." --Clive Matthew-Wilson
15992010-08-102011-03-31gwern2Wrong"There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share." --Steve Ballmer
16002010-08-102013-12-31gwern1WrongThe population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail. --Nate Silver
16012010-08-102012-01-31gwern7WithdrawnThe model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. --Nate Silver
16022010-08-102012-01-01gwern6Wrongby 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. --Gerald Celente
16032010-08-102012-04-01gwern4Wrong3-D is just a fad: "It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache."
16042010-08-102012-01-01gwern6Wrong"For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012." --Jeff Vail
16052010-08-102015-01-01gwern1Right“It’s my prediction that by 2015, we will have an LTE network that will cover most of the important places in the world and that will give us the coverage and capacity we need” --Anssi Vanjoki
16062010-08-102014-04-04gwern7Wrong“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” --Vinod Khosla
16072010-08-102011-11-01gwern2WrongThe Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%.
16082010-08-102013-01-01blanu3RightAndroid will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched.
16092010-08-112013-03-28gwern1Withdrawnloan and securities losses in the U.S. will reach $3.6 trillion. --Nouriel Roubini
16102010-08-112014-01-01gwern1Wrong"We're forecasting real GDP growth of 3.2 percent for 2010 as a whole, and more robust growth in 2011, 2012 and 2013." --Christie Romer
16112010-08-112011-04-01gwern3Wrong"In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent." --Anders Borg
16122010-08-112014-04-01gwern12Wrong"the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years." --Al Gore
16132010-08-112011-11-20gwern5Wrong"Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) ... in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price." --Jakob Nielsen
16142010-08-112010-10-11dakyne1WrongALXA's Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010.
16152010-08-112011-03-06dakyne1WrongUCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament.
16162010-08-112010-12-10dakyne1WrongUCSB men's soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer's final four.
16172010-08-112011-12-31hmadison3WrongThe Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011.
16182010-08-122010-12-31gwern2Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
16192010-08-122011-12-31gwern5Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
16202010-08-122012-12-31gwern2Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
16212010-08-122013-12-31gwern2Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
16222010-08-122010-12-31gwern1Wrong"AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
16232010-08-122015-12-01gwern1Right"US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Boeing" --Intrade
16242010-08-122015-12-31gwern1Wrong"US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Northrop Grumman and/or Airbus" --Intrade
16252010-08-122015-12-31gwern1Wrong"US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to any other company or companies" --Intrade
16262010-08-122010-12-31gwern2Wrong"BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade
16272010-08-122011-06-20gwern2Wrong"BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade
16282010-08-122011-12-31gwern3Wrong"BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade
16292010-08-122010-12-31gwern3Wrong"BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
16302010-08-122011-06-30gwern2Wrong"BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011" --Intrade
16312010-08-122011-12-31gwern1Wrong"BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
16322010-08-122011-06-16makemoniesonline1RightThe Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA championship.
16402010-08-132021-01-01gwern2U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. --Smithers & Co.
16412010-08-132010-12-31gwern2Wrong"Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less." --Farhad Manjoo
16422010-08-132011-07-31gwern2Wrong"...a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July." --Jeffrey Goldberg
16432010-08-152011-01-01gwern2Right"Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record" --Intrade
16442010-08-152012-01-01gwern3Wrong"Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record" --Intrade
16452010-08-152011-01-02gwern1Right"Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16462010-08-152012-01-02gwern1Wrong"Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16472010-08-152013-01-02gwern2Right"Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16482010-08-152014-01-02gwern2Wrong"Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16492010-08-152015-01-02gwern3Right"Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16502010-08-152011-01-03gwern1Right"Global Average Temperature for 2010 to be higher than for 2009" --Intrade
16512010-08-152011-01-01Frank2Rightr.org will reach 100,000 pageviews a week at least once before the end of 2010
16522010-08-162020-01-01gwern4Right"Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009" --Intrade
16532010-08-162020-01-01gwern4Right"Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009" --Intrade
16542010-08-162015-01-01gwern2Wrong"Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more" --Intrade
16552010-08-162010-12-31gwern1Right"Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade
16562010-08-162010-12-31gwern1Right"Global Temperature Anomaly for Aug 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade
16572010-08-162010-12-31gwern1Right"Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade
16612010-08-172011-01-01gwern1WrongCarr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven.
16622010-08-172020-01-01gwern3Right"the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth." --Michael Vassar
16632010-08-172020-01-01gwern5Wrong"energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth." --W.H. Pearson
16642010-08-172020-01-01gwern2Wrong"We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism." --W.H. Pearson
16652010-08-182020-12-31gwern5"in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl
16662010-08-182043-01-01gwern4Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. --J.B.S. Haldane
16672010-08-182018-12-31gwern1RightUS health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. --orthonormal
16682010-08-182018-12-31gwern1RightUS health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 --orthonormal
16692010-08-182018-12-31gwern1WrongUS health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 --orthonormal
16702010-08-182020-01-01gwern6Right"I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years." --Richard Kennaway
16712010-08-182020-01-01Richard_Kennaway12RightA general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.
16722010-08-192040-08-19jande4173Lindsay Lohan will die before 50
16762010-08-192020-01-01gwern4Right"By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected." --Kevin
16772010-08-192014-12-31gwern4Wrong23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014.
16802010-08-202020-01-01gwern3Wrong"By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US" --Jack
16812010-08-202020-01-01gwern4RightConditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. --Jack
16822010-08-202012-11-20gwern8WrongAssuming a 2nd Obama term, "The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)" --Jack
16832010-08-202020-01-01gwern3Wrong"By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)" --Jack
16842010-08-202020-01-01gwern4Wrong"The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state" --Jack
16852010-08-202030-01-01gwern10Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.
16862010-08-202035-01-01gwern4US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. --Robert Richardson
16872010-08-202015-01-01gwern2Wrong"U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015" --CISFHR
16882010-08-202020-08-20gavinl2The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010
16892010-08-212020-01-01gwern9Wrong"Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence" --James Miller
16902010-08-212020-01-01gwern7Wrong"Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence" --James Miller
16912010-08-212020-01-01gwern20Wrong"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller
16922010-08-212017-01-20gwern3Wrong"While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security" --James Miller
16932010-08-212020-01-01gwern8Wrong"Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year" --James Miller
16942010-08-212015-01-01gwern3Wrong"Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel" --James Miller
16952010-08-212020-01-01gwern9Wrong"Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout" --James Miller
16962010-08-212016-11-04gwern8Wrong"All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen
16992010-08-232013-12-31gwern4Wrong"Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon" -dfranke
17002010-08-232013-12-31gwern3Wrong"The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon" --dfranke
17012010-08-232013-12-31gwern2Wrong"the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples" --dfranke
17022010-08-232010-09-17Mo_Money_2make2WrongARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval
17032010-08-232010-10-23Mo_Money_2make3WrongARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010
17042010-08-232010-11-01Mo_Money_2make2WrongMNKD will sign a partner for AFREZZA by November 1, 2010
17052010-08-232011-01-16Mo_Money_2make3WrongMNKD's stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011
17062010-08-232011-01-16Mo_Money_2make3WrongARNA's stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011
17072010-08-232010-11-01Mo_Money_2make1WrongAtlanta Braves will make it to the NLCS.
17082010-08-242020-01-01gwern3Right"At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade." --blogospheroid
17092010-08-252020-12-31gwern3"there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject" --magfrump
17102010-08-252020-01-01gwern3"sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade"
17112010-08-252011-12-31gwern5Right"I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year" --magfrump
17122010-08-252020-12-31gwern3"I will continue to post on LW at least once a month...in 2020" --magfrump
17132010-08-262020-01-01gwern12WrongA state will try to secede from the US. --Nancy Lebovitz
17142010-08-262020-01-01gwern14WrongA state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. --Nancy Lebovitz
17152010-08-262020-01-01gwern3WrongThere will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. --Nancy Lebovitz
17162010-08-262020-01-01gwern4WrongAutomated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. --Nancy Lebovitz
17172010-08-262020-01-01gwern2RightHome sous-vide cookers <$200. --Nancy Lebovitz
17182010-08-262020-01-01gwern3WrongSous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. --Nancy Lebovitz
17192010-08-262010-05-01gwern1RightLucas Sloan will be admitted into UC Berkeley.
17202010-08-262011-12-31gwern6Wrong"Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011." --Phil Goetz
17272010-08-272014-12-16kochikvp7WrongThe proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014.
17302010-08-282012-01-01gwern4WrongHyperinflation by 2011 --Gonzalo Lira
17312010-08-282020-12-31gwern5“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to
17322010-08-292026-06-01gwern4By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now.
17332010-08-302050-01-01gwern10“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin
17342010-08-302010-09-18Matt2WrongTrike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%]
17352010-08-302010-10-02Matt3RightTrike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct.
17362010-08-302013-12-16kochikvp6WrongAn alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013.
17372010-09-012012-11-07SilentWarrior5RightBarack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012.
17382010-09-022010-10-31gwern1WrongA 2nd US retailer will receive a letter from the FDA ordering them to cease selling piracetam products.
17442010-09-062013-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
17452010-09-062014-12-31gwern3Right"The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014" --Intrade
17532010-09-112010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
17542010-09-112011-06-30gwern2Wrong"Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011" --Intrade
17552010-09-112011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
17612010-09-182050-01-01TheScholar4Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050
17622010-09-182011-09-18gwern3WrongThe Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year.
17632010-09-182012-09-18gwern3Wrong The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years.
17762010-09-222025-09-22gwern4PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025.
17842010-09-242012-01-01gwern1Right_Subversion_ will not be released by 2011.
17852010-09-242013-01-01gwern1Right_Subversion_ will not be released by 2013.
17862010-09-272037-01-01gwern2by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States
17872010-09-272015-01-01gwern2RightBritish forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015
17882010-09-272013-01-01gwern2Right"sales of touch screen phones will rise from 200,000 in 2006 to over 21 million in 2012"
17892010-09-272012-01-01gwern1WrongBlue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops
17902010-09-272012-01-01gwern3Right"22 nanometer chips are in mass production" during 2011
17912010-09-272012-01-01gwern2Right"From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double - from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million."
17922010-09-272013-01-01gwern2Wrong"Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again"
17932010-09-272013-01-01gwern2WrongA stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available
17942010-09-272014-01-01gwern7WrongBy 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb.
17952010-09-282014-01-01gwern1WrongIndia launches Chandrayaan-2 in 2013
17962010-09-282015-01-01gwern2WrongJames Webb telescope is launched in 2014
17972010-09-282015-01-01gwern2Right'16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014
17982010-09-282015-01-01gwern9Wrong'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014
17992010-09-282015-01-01gwern9Wrong'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014
18002010-09-282017-01-01gwern4Right'Laser guns are in naval use' in 2016
18052010-09-292011-11-01komponisto4RightAppeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito.
18182010-09-302011-01-01gwern1RightWikipedia: User:Arbitrarily0 will say User:Gwern changed the Saimoe AfD from redirect/delete to no consensus
18192010-09-302021-01-01gwern6Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.
18202010-10-012011-10-01mikko22WrongMaria and Mikael Jungner will initiate divorce before October 1st, 2011.
18212010-10-032016-01-01gwern1WrongFacebook's 2015 revenues will be >$28 billion --Adam Rifkin, TechCrunch
18222010-10-042020-01-01gwern3WrongA _Myst_ live-action movie will not be released before 2020.
18232010-10-052017-01-01gwern4WrongHVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017
18242010-10-052017-01-01gwern1RightPlaystation 4/successor PS3 released by 2017
18252010-10-052017-01-01gwern3WrongStrait of Messina bridge completed by 2017
18322010-10-052015-01-01gwern2WrongThe _Haruhi_ light novel series will conclude by 2015.
18332010-10-052016-01-01gwern3WrongBy 2016, at least one reviewer of _Haruhi_ will accept the theory that Kyon is god.
18342010-10-072015-10-06gwern9Wrong"Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)" --James Miller
18352010-10-072011-03-07dakyne1WrongThe SIU Saluki men's basketball team will win 15 or more games in the 2010 - 2011 regular season, including the MVC tournament.
18362010-10-072018-01-01gwern1WrongCrossrail opens in London
18372010-10-072018-01-01gwern3Wronge-paper in wide use by 2018
18382010-10-072018-01-01gwern2WrongPortable medical lasers that seal wounds by 2018
18392010-10-072018-01-01gwern5WrongTeleportation of simple molecules by 2018
18442010-10-162010-10-20Matt1RightI'll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday.
18452010-10-162012-01-01TheScholar5WrongBefore 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it's MacBooks.
18462010-10-172100-01-01TheScholar11By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.
18472010-10-182019-01-01gwern2"Robot insect spies are in military use" in 2018
18482010-10-182019-01-01gwern2"Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds" in 2018
18492010-10-182019-01-01gwern4"Anti-fat drugs are available" in 2018
18502010-10-182019-01-01gwern2Wrong"The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared" in 2018
18532010-10-192020-01-01gwern7Wrong"The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on" in 2019
18542010-10-192020-01-01gwern6Wrong"Bionic eyes are commercially available" in 2019
18552010-10-192040-01-01gwern4"Automated freight transport" widespread by 2030s
18562010-10-192020-01-01gwern5Wrongthe Large Aral Sea gone in 2019
18572010-10-192020-01-01gwern4Right"Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day" in 2019
18652010-10-232021-01-01gwern8'Texting by thinking' in 2020
18662010-10-232021-01-01gwern5'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020
18672010-10-232021-01-01gwern7'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020
18682010-10-232021-01-01gwern8'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021
18692010-10-242030-01-01gwern4There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s.
18702010-10-242022-01-01gwern3'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021
18712010-10-242022-01-01gwern4CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022
18722010-10-242022-01-01gwern5'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021
18732010-10-262023-01-01gwern4Deafness cured by 2022
18742010-10-262023-01-01gwern3'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022
18752010-10-262023-01-01gwern3'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022
18762010-10-262023-01-01gwern3'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022
18772010-10-262051-01-01gwern3Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. --Ray Kurzweil
18782010-10-262021-01-01gwern15By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil
18792010-10-262012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18802010-10-262013-01-01gwern2Wrong'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18812010-10-262014-01-01gwern2Wrong'Prince Harry becomes the first member of the British royal family to fly in space.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18822010-10-262015-01-01gwern4Wrong'Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18832010-10-262016-01-01gwern2Wrong'An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is complete control of matter at the atomic level. Within a few years, because they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18842010-10-262017-01-01gwern12Wrong'Existing currencies are abolished. The "mega-watt-hour" becomes the universal unit of exchange.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18852010-10-262018-01-01gwern3Wrong'On his hundred birthday, December 16, Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18862010-10-262020-01-01gwern8Wrong'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed "Project Spaceguard," to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids,
18872010-10-262021-01-01gwern6'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18882010-10-262024-01-01gwern3'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023
18892010-10-262024-01-01gwern3'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023
18902010-10-262024-01-01gwern6'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023
18912010-10-262024-01-01gwern3'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023
18922010-10-262023-01-01gwern24'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18932010-10-262024-01-01gwern4'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18942010-10-262025-01-01gwern5'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18952010-10-262026-01-01gwern3'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal "Braincap." Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of
18962010-10-262041-01-01gwern9'2040 The "Universal Replicator," based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18972010-10-262046-01-01gwern8'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18982010-10-262051-01-01gwern6'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18992010-10-262058-01-01gwern6'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke
19002010-10-262062-01-01gwern6"2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space." --Arthur C. Clarke
19012010-10-262091-01-01gwern4'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide "mined" from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' --Arthur C. Clarke
19022010-10-262096-01-01gwern8'2095 The development of a "Space Drive" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'
19032010-10-272025-01-01gwern3Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024
19042010-10-272025-01-01gwern3Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024
19052010-10-272025-01-01gwern6'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024
19062010-10-272020-01-01gwern5WrongA $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. --Ray Kurzweil
19072010-10-272020-01-01gwern11WrongThree-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. --Ray Kurzweil
19082010-10-272020-01-01gwern7WrongThe summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. --Ray Kurzweil
19092010-10-272020-01-01gwern4WrongComputers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). --Ray Kurzweil
19102010-10-272020-01-01gwern3People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
19112010-10-272020-01-01gwern2RightThese special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en
19122010-10-272020-01-01gwern3WrongPeople communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. --Ray Kurz
19132010-10-272020-01-01gwern3WrongMost business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. --Ray Kurzweil
19142010-10-272020-01-01gwern3WrongMost people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit
19152010-10-272020-01-01gwern9WrongCables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. --Ray Kurzweil
19162010-10-272020-01-01gwern10WrongRotating computer hard drives are no longer used. --Ray Kurzweil
19172010-10-292011-02-07pdaveybean2WrongThe New York Jets will win the Superbowl in 2011.
19222010-10-292026-01-01gwern7'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025
19232010-10-292026-01-01gwern9'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025
19242010-10-292026-01-01gwern4'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025
19252010-10-302031-01-01gwern8Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030
19262010-10-312011-10-31TheScholar9RightIn about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week.
19272010-10-312050-01-01TheScholar11By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.
19342010-11-082060-11-07gwern6"Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh
19352010-11-092012-06-01gwern3WrongJeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2012
19362010-11-092016-06-01gwern1RightJeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016
19372010-11-092016-06-01gwern4Wrong"I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent" --Joe Trippi
19382010-11-112027-01-01gwern3Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026
19392010-11-112027-01-01gwern4Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026
19402010-11-112027-01-01gwern8The United States of Africa is established by 2026
19412010-11-112027-01-01gwern4Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026
19462010-11-122020-01-01gwern3WrongThree-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19472010-11-122020-01-01gwern4RightMassively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19482010-11-122020-01-01gwern17WrongComputers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19492010-11-122020-01-01gwern6WrongMost learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. --Ray Kurzweil
19502010-11-122020-01-01gwern13WrongMost human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19512010-11-132020-01-01gwern2WrongI will finish my _Evangelion_ research and write my essay/book on it by 2020.
19522010-11-142049-01-01gwern6'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz
19572010-11-182015-12-31raavin6WrongApple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015
19582010-11-182022-12-31raavin19Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022
19592010-11-182013-12-31raavin2WrongWater reserves in Victoria, Australia will be back up to 100% by 2013
19602010-11-202030-01-01kallman5Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030
19632010-11-202020-01-01kallman22The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade
19642010-11-202015-06-15kallman2WrongThe fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either.
19652010-11-222030-01-01kallman2A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a "cyberspace grafitti" sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following.
19662010-11-242030-01-01PatrickAchtelik13The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.
19742010-11-282037-01-01Nic_Smith4"[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange... and paying bonuses will be gone." - Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context - NS)
19752010-12-012010-12-02Matt1RightBret's spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related.
19762010-12-032013-01-01gwern8RightJulian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010
19772010-12-052010-12-10bretcav1WrongI think that I'll have some predictions into predictionbook by the end of this week
19852010-12-102020-01-01gwern3RightIndia's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. --Shane Legg
19862010-12-102020-01-01gwern5Wrong'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 --Shane Legg
19872010-12-102020-01-01gwern3'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 --Shane Legg
19882010-12-102020-01-01gwern4Right"Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone." by 2020 --Shane Legg
19892010-12-102020-01-01gwern3Right'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' --Roko
19902010-12-102017-01-06gwern3Wrong'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' --Mike
20042010-12-262012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Facebook will pass 1 billion users.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20052010-12-262012-01-01gwern2Right'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20062010-12-262012-01-01gwern3Wrong'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20072010-12-262012-01-01gwern2Wrong'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20082010-12-262012-01-01gwern11Wrong'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20092010-12-262012-01-01gwern2Withdrawn'China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20102010-12-262012-01-01gwern4Wrong'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20112010-12-262012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'Silicon Valley jobs will remain flat' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20122010-12-262012-01-01gwern1WithdrawnCarriers 'will institute charges based on usage' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20152010-12-272013-01-01gwern2Wrong_Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt_ will air on Adult Swim before 2013.
20162010-12-292011-07-01gwern1Wrong'Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011' --Brian Breslin
20172010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Wrong'WordPress ecosystem grows up' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20182010-12-292012-01-01gwern2Right'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20192010-12-292012-01-08gwern2Withdrawn'Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year' --Brian Breslin
20202010-12-292011-07-01gwern4Right'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' --Brian Breslin
20212010-12-292012-01-01gwern2Right'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20222010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Right'Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20232010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Right'Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20242010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Facebook credits expand beyond facebook' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20252010-12-292012-01-01gwern2Withdrawn'Google reboots android marketplace' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20262010-12-302023-01-02gwern3Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023.
20272011-01-012015-01-01gwern1RightBy 2015 a mother will be able to have much of the genome of her unborn child sequenced from her own blood.
20282011-01-012012-01-01gwern4WrongObama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. --Capital Commentary
20292011-01-012012-01-01gwern1Wrong'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan --Capital Commentary
20302011-01-012012-01-01gwern4Right'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20312011-01-012011-12-01gwern14WrongBy December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro --Capitol Commentary
20322011-01-012012-01-01gwern9Wrong'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20332011-01-012012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Hillary Clinton will step down as Secretary of State' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20342011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongRoberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20352011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongThe Supreme Court will hear an appeal challenging Obamacare and uphold the acts in 2011. --Capitol Commentary
20362011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongAsif Ali Zardari will cease to be president of Pakistan during 2011
20372011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongAsif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights
20382011-01-012012-01-01gwern4WrongWikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011
20392011-01-012012-01-01gwern10WrongWikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011
20402011-01-012015-01-01gwern3WrongThe target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America
20412011-01-012011-03-01gwern1WrongKen Jennings will defeat Watson at _Jeopardy!_
20422011-01-012012-01-01gwern3RightFidel Castro will not die in 2011
20432011-01-012012-01-01gwern1RightMySpace is sold by Fox News Corp in 2011. --Ben Parr
20442011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongBebo.com sold by Criterion Capital Partners in 2011. --Ben Parr
20452011-01-012012-01-01gwern4RightNo Facebook IPO in 2011 --Ben Parr
20492011-01-022011-12-31Richard_Kennaway7RightOn 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz.
20522011-01-022013-01-01gwern1WrongIntrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013.
20532011-01-022015-01-01gwern4RightIntrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015.
20542011-01-022012-01-01gwern7RightWikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011.
20552011-01-022012-01-10gwern3RightObama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011.
20562011-01-022012-01-01gwern7WrongOil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012
20572011-01-022012-01-01gwern3RightApple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011.
20582011-01-022012-01-01gwern11WrongApple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011.
20592011-01-022012-01-01gwern2WrongGroupon will buy Foursquare in 2011 --Seamus Condron
20602011-01-022012-01-01gwern1RightKevin Rose will leave Digg, or sell it for a bargain basement price, then leave. --Seamus Condron
20612011-01-022012-01-01gwern1RightDelicious will either not be sold or will not be as popular in 2011 as it was in 2010. --Seamus Condron
20622011-01-022012-01-01gwern2WrongReaders' Choice for Time's [2011] Person of the Year: Anonymous --Seamus Condron
20632011-01-022012-01-01gwern2RightNintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 --_Game Informer_
20642011-01-022012-01-01gwern1RightAt least one FPS game announced for Xbox Kinect in 2011 --_Game Informer_
20652011-01-022012-01-01gwern1Wrong_Diablo III_ port to consoles announced in 2011 --_Game Informer_
20662011-01-022012-01-01gwern1Wrong_Final Fantasy XIV_ announced by Sony in 2011. --_Game Informer_
20672011-01-022012-01-01gwern3Wrong_Half-Life 3_ announced by Valve in 2011. --_Game Informer_
20682011-01-022012-01-01gwern2Wrong_Duck Hunt_ revealed for 3DS --_Game Informer_
20692011-01-032035-01-01gwern5"In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..." --Will Hutton
20702011-01-032036-01-01gwern8'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada
20712011-01-032035-01-01gwern8AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada
20722011-01-032025-01-01gwern9Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada
20732011-01-032035-01-01gwern6'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po
20742011-01-032030-01-01gwern11'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman
20752011-01-032020-01-01gwern3Right'I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson' --John Ellis
20762011-01-032020-01-01gwern6Wrong'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' --John Ellis
20772011-01-032035-01-01gwern4Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. --Mike Lee
20782011-01-032035-01-01gwern5Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee
20792011-01-032026-01-01gwern3US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025.
20802011-01-032083-01-01gwern3US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082
20812011-01-042011-11-30Laus_CB6WrongFacebook will be less visitors in 2011
20822011-01-052012-01-01scav2Rightkatla volcano will not erupt in 2011
20832011-01-052011-12-31scav6Wrong3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011
20842011-01-062014-01-01gwern4WrongEcuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest.
20852011-01-062012-01-01gwern3RightCEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20862011-01-062012-01-01gwern2WrongYahoo will sell its Chinese assets in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20872011-01-062012-01-01gwern1WrongYahoo will sell its Yahoo Japan shares in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20882011-01-062012-01-01gwern2WrongYahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20892011-01-062012-01-01gwern3Wrong'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 --Robert X. Cringely
20902011-01-062012-01-01gwern5RightThe US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. --Kevin
20912011-01-062011-02-23gwern2Right'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' --SarahC
20922011-01-062012-01-01gwern11Right'General AI will not be made in 2011.' --JoshuaZ
20932011-01-062012-01-01gwern3Right'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' --JoshuaZ
20942011-01-062012-01-01gwern4Right'The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]' --JoshuaZ
20952011-01-062012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Ryan Williams's recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP will be tightened' --JoshuaZ
20962011-01-062012-01-01gwern8Wrong'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction "megachurch" means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' --JoshuaZ
20972011-01-062012-01-01gwern6Wrong'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' --JoshuaZ
20982011-01-062012-01-01gwern2Wrong'the United States has a historically hot summer [2011].' --orthonormal
20992011-01-072012-01-01gwern2WrongApple buys Time Warner Cable in 2011 --Robert X. Cringeley
21002011-01-072012-01-01gwern2WrongThe price of gold will fall in real terms. --Costanza
21032011-01-072020-01-01gwern8Wrong'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' --orangecat
21042011-01-072012-01-01gwern3Wrong'There will be a second season of _High School of the Dead_' --Sketerpot
21052011-01-072012-01-01gwern4Wrong'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' --Sketerpot
21062011-01-072012-01-01gwern2Wrong'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' --Sketerpot
21072011-01-072013-07-01gwern7RightConditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed --Sketerpot
21082011-01-072012-01-01gwern6Wrong'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' --icebrand
21092011-01-072012-01-01gwern4Wrong'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' --icebrand
21102011-01-082012-01-01gwern2WrongJared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally
21232011-01-102012-01-01gwern4Right'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' --scav
21242011-01-102021-01-01gwern10'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw
21252011-01-102012-01-01gwern3Right'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' --CronoDAS
21262011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Wrong'"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' --CronoDAS
21272011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Right'The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%' --CronoDAS
21282011-01-102012-01-01gwern2Wrong'I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%' --CronoDAS
21292011-01-102012-01-01gwern2Wrong'I get a "real job": 1%' --CronoDAS
21302011-01-102040-01-01gwern13GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_
21312011-01-102012-01-01gwern3Right'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' --Skatche
21322011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Right'Despite media hysterics as to its imminent demise the current coalition of parties in government in Australia will remain in power. (70%)' --luminosity
21332011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'Newspapers in Australia will be found to be boosting subscription numbers by a significant amount to swindle advertisers, again. (40%)' --luminosity
21342011-01-112012-01-31scav2WrongAverage daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011
21352011-01-112020-10-31scav3WithdrawnA Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won't be a string theory.
21362011-01-122026-01-12Nic_Smith1RightJared Loughner will be convicted (or plead guilty) to at least one charge related to the 2011 Tuscon shooting.
21372011-01-122014-01-01gwern1WrongI will switch from Mnemosyne to Anki by 2014.
21382011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Withdrawn'Makerbot will sell more than 10,000 3D printers in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21392011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21402011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong'A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21412011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'Both Stratasys and Objet will release $5000 desktop 3D printers at Euromold 2011.' --Joris Peels
21422011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong'3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21432011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21442011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Microsoft buys Dassault Systemes in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21452011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong'3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011' --Joris Peels
21462011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong"bre Pettis is profiled in the New Yorker." --Joris Peels
21492011-01-182012-01-01gwern1Wrong_The Notenki Memoirs_ will be available as an official commercial ebook in 2011.
21502011-01-192050-01-01gwern5“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M
21512011-01-212016-01-01bobpage4WrongA team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015
21522011-01-222011-07-18Nic_Smith3WrongA significant portion of the plot of _Kore wa Zombie Desu ka?_ will be revealed to be a "Dying Dream."
21562011-01-252020-01-01gwern1RightGoogle will kill Google Knol by 2020.
21572011-01-252018-01-01gwern3RightGotthard Base Tunnel completed by 2018.
21582011-01-252040-01-01gwern11EU to dissolve by 2040.
21592011-01-252016-01-01gwern2WrongWooly mammoth resurrected by 2016.
21602011-01-252032-01-01gwern5Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032.
21612011-01-252014-01-01gwern1Right4G standard finalized and official by 2014.
21622011-01-252016-01-21gwern8Wrong“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” --John Feminella
21652011-01-272011-02-27gwern1WrongDavid Fincher will win 2011 Best Director Oscar --John Scalzi
21662011-01-272011-02-27gwern1RightColin Firth will win 2011 Best Actor Oscar. --John Scalzi
21672011-01-272011-02-27gwern2RightNatalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar --John Scalzi
21682011-01-272011-02-27gwern1RightChristian Bale will win 2011 Supporting Actor Oscar --John Scalzi
21692011-01-272011-02-27gwern1WrongAmy Adams will win 2011 Best Supporting Actress Oscar. --John Scalzi
21702011-01-272011-02-27gwern3Right_Toy Story 3_ will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. --John Scalzi
21892011-02-112012-01-01Matt2WrongPD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011.
21982011-02-132012-02-13gwern2Wrong"Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition." --FfT
21992011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Wrong'The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non
22002011-02-142012-01-01gwern4Right'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' --FtT
22012011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'At year's end, the district court will still not have issued a final judgment on the Google Book Search settlement.' --FtT
22022011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi
22032011-02-142012-01-01gwern4Wrong'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' --FtT
22042011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'The RIAA and/or MPAA will be sued over their role in the government's actions to reassign DNS names owned by allegedly unlawful web sites. Even if the lawsuit manages to get all the way to trial, there won't be a significant ruling against them.' --FtT
22052011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Wrong'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore
22062011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'ICANN still will not have introduced new generic TLDs.' --FtT
22072011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the
22232011-02-162011-05-30Ben Doherty1Right80% of my students will have signed up to prediction book and make eight or more predictions by the end of May
22242011-02-172012-01-01gwern7Wrong'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' --Bruce Wagner
22272011-02-192011-02-20Ben Doherty1WrongI will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 6 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP)
22282011-02-192011-02-20Ben Doherty1WrongI will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 10 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP)
22352011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1WrongThere is between $20.00 and $22.00 in my change jar (as determined by counting machine).
22362011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere's between $18.00 and $24.00 in the change jar (counted by machine).
22372011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere's between $16 and $26 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine)
22382011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere’s between $11 and $36 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine)
22392011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere’s between $5 and $50 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine)
22402011-03-012011-04-03bobpage3WrongInitial shipments of iPad 2 will have a display that emits circularly polarized light
22412011-03-012011-03-06DavidPercival1WrongWe will receive rain Friday, Saturday and Sunday because we are going to camp on a deserted beach!
22422011-03-012011-03-08Eun1RightSomeone will be sick during or after the field trip on the beach. The trip will be very hard for contemporary well protected people to undergo difficult circumstance.
22432011-03-022011-05-02Ben Doherty1WrongThe final funnel form will be oval
22442011-03-022011-05-02Ben Doherty1WrongThe final funnel form will be elliptical
22452011-03-022013-03-16nam200113WrongIphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit!
22462011-03-022012-01-10gwern1WrongYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22472011-03-022012-01-10gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22482011-03-022012-01-10gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22492011-03-022012-01-10gwern1WrongYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release >=9 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22502011-03-032011-03-06Sandra Åhlén2WrongI will call my brother on his birthday.
22542011-03-032013-01-01gwern1WrongYoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2012
22552011-03-032014-01-01gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2013
22562011-03-032015-01-01gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2014
22602011-03-032011-03-07Jessica Hartany3WrongI will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday
22612011-03-072011-03-08Jessica Hartany1WrongI will finish reading the drowned world and at least 4 papers before class by Tuesday
22622011-03-072011-03-07Jessica Hartany1WithdrawnI will write two blog posts from the 'epic' camping weekend by midnight
22632011-03-072011-03-14DavidPercival3WrongI will aquire a copy of 'Children of the Dust' and watch the TV series in an attempt to develop an understanding of post-apocalyptic survival following nuclear war.
22642011-03-072015-12-30maxdemian2WrongFacebook will be valued at less than $30 billion by 2015.
22652011-03-072012-01-01maxdemian2RightGaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011.
22682011-03-072011-03-07maxdemian1RightI will read at least one chapter of a book tonight.
22742011-03-072011-03-14Eunseo2RightMy house mate declared that she has quited smoking from today. However, she will restart smoking in a week.
22852011-03-072011-03-15Jessica Hartany1Rightangelina will get a window seat when she start work next week.
22862011-03-082011-03-08DavidPercival1RightI will fall asleep reading World War Z tonight due to exhaustion!
22872011-03-082011-03-11nam20011Wrongfew ppl in our class will get cold this week! ;))
22882011-03-082011-03-31dumun1WrongEvery student will come to join yoga class.20% of them will join another yoga class individually.
22892011-03-082011-03-08alvinTng1RightOur class will end early today...
22902011-03-082011-03-08Jessica Hartany4Rightben will not make it back to comp lab by 4pm.
22912011-03-082011-03-10sailoryoon1WrongI'll be massive drunk tmr night.
22922011-03-082011-03-11Ben Doherty1RightI will remember to have lunch before 2pm for the next three days.
22932011-03-082011-03-11nam20013WrongI will be right time for yoga class!
22942011-03-082011-03-15Eunseo1RightTamara(tutor of FPM) will give a chance to us to have Frank Gery's lecture next Tuesday (15th of March 2011).
22952011-03-082011-03-11Ye5WrongBen will be late for the yoga class.
22962011-03-082011-03-11Eunseo1RightI will finish reading at least 3 chaters and papers by friday.
22972011-03-092011-03-12wael1WrongThree student will miss the yoga class
22982011-03-092011-03-11Jessica Hartany1RightI will be on time on Friday
22992011-03-092011-03-31Jessica Hartany3WrongI will only drink coffee once a week for the rest of March.
23002011-03-092011-03-12nam20011RightI will eat "pho' " (vietnamese beef noodle soup) at least one in this week! I miss pho'
23012011-03-092011-06-10Eunseo3WrongI will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term.
23022011-03-092011-03-12dumun1Wrong60% of students will have lunch before yoga class!!
23032011-03-092011-03-10Mel Eclarinal1WithdrawnI will write 3 blog posts by tomorrow
23042011-03-092011-03-09alvinTng1RightI'll finish a model before I sleep...
23052011-03-092011-03-14Sandra Åhlén1RightI won't see my flatmate more than once this week.
23062011-03-102060-01-01gwern5User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips.
23072011-03-102011-03-12DavidPercival2WrongOur Qantas flight to Adelaide will depart Sydney on time tomorrow.
23102011-03-102011-04-01Mel Eclarinal2RightI will receive the books I ordered from amazon by April.
23112011-03-102011-03-11Ben Doherty3Wrongless than 12 students will attend my class today
23122011-03-102011-03-14sailoryoon1WrongI'll finish my one of readings that i read before at the camping within this weekends.
23132011-03-112011-03-18DavidPercival1WrongI will beat Stephen in our latest game of 'Words with Friends'
23142011-03-112011-03-21Sandra Åhlén4RightI will attend at least nine yoga classes
23152011-03-112011-03-11alvinTng1RightI'll be in dreamland by 12am tonight... Tired... Zzz...
23162011-03-112011-03-13wael1Wrong6 of students from Ben's class will attend yoga class again
23172011-03-112011-03-14wael1Wrongonly 4 students will read to night
23182011-03-112011-03-12Sandra Åhlén1RightI will make it to class on time on saturday.
23192011-03-112011-03-20nam20011Righti will lose weight after yoga class for sure!
23202011-03-122011-03-13alvinTng1RightSomeone will make me drink at least 3 glass at the birthday party later..!
23212011-03-122011-03-14Mel Eclarinal1WrongI will finish my blog post about the generator before Monday
23222011-03-122013-12-31gwern1Wrong“By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period.” --Shamir Karkal
23232011-03-132011-03-14alvinTng1RightNam will oversleep tomorrow and come to uni late...
23242011-03-142011-03-14puya2RightLess than 7 students will attend the RUBY lesson today.
23252011-03-142011-03-15dumun1RightI will finish at least one reading before sun-rise
23262011-03-142011-03-20nam20011WrongI will finish "on the beach" soon this week!
23272011-03-142011-04-30nam20012WrongI will take IELTS on 19th March, morning and i will get 6.0 !
23282011-03-142014-12-25Ben Doherty4WrongMad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014
23292011-03-142011-03-18nam20013WrongAll clubs which are play home at second game in 1/8 Round Champions League will get into next round 1/4!
23302011-03-142011-03-17wael1RightI will design a house this week
23312011-03-142011-03-15wael1WrongBen will wear blue T-shitr on tuesday
23322011-03-142011-03-15dumun1RightI will not late for work today!!
23332011-03-142011-03-18Hani1RightI will read three article before Friday
23342011-03-142011-03-16wael1RightI will look to the shark map in Sydney on Wednesday?
23352011-03-142011-03-16DavidPercival1RightI will struggle with the fitness training at Soccer tonight after my first Bikram Yoga session!
23362011-03-152011-03-15puya1Rightless than 7 students will come to Ben's office today.
23392011-03-152011-03-19sailoryoon1Rightwe can see super moon on this saturday.
23442011-03-152011-03-22Jessica Hartany1WrongI will NOT get anyone from work or uni sick by the end of the week.
23492011-03-162011-05-16Ye1WrongI will go to yoga class at least 8 times.
23502011-03-162011-03-20Ye1RightBen will not be joining us for the camping trip.
23532011-03-162011-03-30puya1WrongI will lose 2 kilos by next 15 days
23542011-03-162011-03-17dumun1Wrong90% of classmates will be arrived in class on time
23552011-03-162011-03-17alvinTng1RightIt will not rain tomorrow so I'll not need to bring my umbrella to uni...
23562011-03-162020-01-01Mel Eclarinal19WrongNuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.
23572011-03-172011-03-22Sandra Åhlén1RightUrban drawings will be done by monday.
23582011-03-172011-01-01DavidPercival1WithdrawnAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020.
23592011-03-172012-01-01DavidPercival1WithdrawnAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020
23602011-03-172011-03-17DavidPercival1WithdrawnAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020
23612011-03-172020-01-16DavidPercival8WrongAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020
23622011-03-172012-12-13Sandra Åhlén3WrongThe world will end on 12 December 2012.
23632011-03-172012-12-22Sandra Åhlén3WrongThe world will end on 21 December 2012.
23642011-03-172011-03-18Eunseo1WrongI will go to morning yoga class on 18 of March 2011.
23652011-03-172011-03-22wael8WrongThe international media will not mention anything about Japan's Earthquake on next Monday
23662011-03-182011-04-30nam20011WrongI can not finish any books !
23672011-03-182011-03-18puya2WrongBen will not be tired at the end of todays class.
23682011-03-182012-12-31puya6RightThe world will not end on December 2012.
23692011-03-182011-08-24bobpage7WrongDeus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release)
23702011-03-182011-05-18Eunseo3WrongVolcano will accur on Baekdu Mountain within 2mounths.
23712011-03-182011-03-25Mel Eclarinal2WrongThe Messenger probe spacecraft that is meant to circle Mercury will fly away from Mercury and end up circling the Sun.
23752011-03-192011-03-19nam20011Righttoday we will finish class later than 4pm!
23762011-03-192011-03-19alvinTng1WrongI'll watch ALIEN 2 tonight.
23772011-03-192011-03-19DavidPercival1WrongTottenham Hotspur will beat West Ham by two goals or more tonight.
23782011-03-202013-01-01puya5WrongBy the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent.
23792011-03-202011-03-22Mel Eclarinal2RightI will write 3 blog posts before the end of Monday the 21st of March 2011.
23802011-03-202011-03-23Ben Doherty1WrongWith current perforation settings the façade for the bank building will meet or exceed requirements for shading according to my testing.
23812011-03-202011-03-21sailoryoon1RightDK will bring coffee in the morning into his work.
23822011-03-202011-04-30Jessica Hartany3RightPetrol price's average in Sydney won't be below $1.40 (excluding discounts and vouchers) until the end of April
23832011-03-202011-03-20alvinTng1RightIt'll be raining when I get up in the morning.
23842011-03-212013-08-08bobpage12WrongInitial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM
23852011-03-212011-03-21sailoryoon1WrongI'll finish to make my disaster story for tomorrow by 11 pm tonight.
23862011-03-212011-03-27DavidPercival2RightLabour will lose this weekends NSW State election.
23872011-03-212016-03-21Mel Eclarinal7WrongThere will be a pandemic within the next 5 years.
23932011-03-212011-03-22Nic_Smith1RightCopy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, delivered tomorrow.
23942011-03-212011-03-22Nic_Smith1RightScooter, due Weds, will arrive tomorrow.
23952011-03-212011-03-23Nic_Smith1WrongScooter will arrive on Weds.
23962011-03-212011-03-22puya3WrongBen will come ten minutes late to class tomorrow.
23972011-03-212011-03-22sailoryoon1RightI won't finish my work by 4A.M tomorrow.
23982011-03-212011-03-26wael1Wrongthe war between Lybia and France will strat this Friday
23992011-03-212011-05-01Ben Doherty3WrongThe price of petrol at the pump will reach $1.55 at some point before the end of April - http://bit.ly/eUr3eE
24022011-03-222011-10-01Ben Doherty4RightMuammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011
24032011-03-222011-03-31Ben Doherty4WrongMuammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011
24042011-03-222011-12-31Ben Doherty3RightMuammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011
24052011-03-222011-07-31DavidPercival2WrongOlivia will get the promotion to Customer Supervisor position at Qantas.
24062011-03-222011-03-22sailoryoon1RightI'll finish bloging for packing tonight.
24072011-03-222011-03-23Nic_Smith1WrongTime to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-1
24082011-03-222011-03-23Nic_Smith1RightTime to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-2
24092011-03-222011-03-23Nic_Smith1RightTime to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-5
24102011-03-232012-12-23seansman15@hotmail.com6RightThe 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax.
24132011-03-232011-03-23puya1WrongI will attend today's public lecture.
24142011-03-232011-03-25alvinTng2RightWar of the worlds DVD will be sent to be on Friday...
24152011-03-232011-04-07nam20012WrongChelsea will win MU at SB in 1/4 CL
24162011-03-232011-03-01nam20011WrongChelsea will meet Barcelona at Wembley Stadium
24172011-03-232011-03-24Mel Eclarinal1RightClass will go beyond 7:00pm tonight.
24182011-03-242011-03-27DavidPercival2WrongSydney Swans will beat Melborne in the AFL this weekend
24192011-03-242011-03-26Ben Doherty1RightI will have someone sat in the seat next to me at some point in my flight
24202011-03-242011-03-26Ben Doherty1WrongMy flight will take off within +- 5 minutes of the scheduled time (QF1)
24232011-03-262011-03-27alvinTng1RightI'll leave my house just twice today.
24312011-03-272011-04-03alvinTng1RightI'll finish 2 models this week.
24322011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1WrongI will have a PHP script to parse and reformat STATA summary stats by 5pm.
24332011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 6pm.
24342011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 7pm.
24352011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 8pm.
24362011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 9pm.
24372011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 10pm.
24382011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 11pm.
24392011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats today.
24402011-03-282011-04-04Mel Eclarinal4RightI will write 2 blog posts daily for 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow.
24452011-03-292011-03-27DavidPercival1WithdrawnThe USA or Russia will be involved in my hypothetical nuclear threat scenario for my design studio.
24462011-03-292011-05-29DavidPercival1RightThe USA or Russia will be involved in my hypothetical nuclear threat scenario for my design studio.
24472011-03-292011-04-03dumun1RightI will watch 3 earthquake movie before this weekend.
24482011-03-292011-03-30dumun2WrongAustralia will beat Germany by 1:0 tomorrow!
24492011-03-292011-03-29gwern1WrongI will submit all relevant gwern.net links into witcoin.com within 30 minutes.
24502011-03-292011-04-06wael2RightI will write 3 blogs before 5 of April
24572011-03-302011-04-06puya3Wrongchelsea will eliminate man united in the quarterfinals of the champions league.
24582011-03-302011-12-31puya3WrongImmigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year.
24592011-03-302011-04-03Mel Eclarinal1RightDarren will finish reading 'The Walking Dead' by Sunday
24602011-03-312011-04-07Jessica Hartany2RightI will finish mapping for 'The City' by next Thursday
24612011-03-312011-12-15Jessica Hartany3RightThe Vic Hotel in Annandale will start serving Bulmers on tap again by Dec 2011.
24622011-03-312011-04-03Sandra Åhlén1RightMilan will beat Inter on Sunday
24632011-03-312021-03-31Mel Eclarinal6Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years
24642011-03-312050-03-31Mel Eclarinal4The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050
24652011-03-312011-04-08wael1RightI will lose 2 kilos before next friday
24662011-03-312011-04-01Eunseo1RightI will clearn our unit bathroom tomorrow.
24672011-03-312011-03-31alvinTng1WrongI'll not be able to sleep tonight
24682011-03-312011-04-04wael1WrongTriple h will beat the undertaker on WrestlMainia 27
24692011-04-012011-05-01Sandra Åhlén2Wrong"Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011" - Intrade
24702011-04-012011-04-16minhduc3WrongNuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April
24712011-04-012012-04-01nam20012WrongI wont see her any more
24722011-04-012011-04-02Eunseo2WrongDumun and I will be in same group in Sustainable Urban Development.
24732011-04-012011-05-01alvinTng1WrongThere'll be 3 ALIEN related reports on the news this month.
24742011-04-022011-06-02minhduc3RightAllied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi's government!
24752011-04-022011-04-03nam20011WrongWest Ham will beat MU tonight! or at least a draw
24792011-04-032011-05-23Sandra Åhlén2RightFC Barcelona will win La Liga 2010/11
24802011-04-032011-04-21Sandra Åhlén1RightReal Madrid will win Copa del Rey 2010/11
24812011-04-032011-04-21Sandra Åhlén1Wrong"Barcelona will beat Real Madrid 5-0 in the Copa del Rey final" - Barcelona president Sandro Rosell
24822011-04-032011-04-04sailoryoon1WrongI will finish documentation for bus station by tuesday night.
24872011-04-052011-04-26minhduc1RightI will be at the library everyday until the mid semester break
24882011-04-052011-04-05minhduc1WrongToday, I will finish Event-Cities by midnight
24892011-04-052011-04-06DavidPercival1RightChristiano Ronaldo will play for Real Madrid against Tottenham Hotspur in tomorrows Champions League clash.
24902011-04-062011-04-06sailoryoon1RightI will cook dinner tonight for my boy friend.
24912011-04-062011-04-21DavidPercival2WrongTottenham will defeat Real Madrid on aggregate in the Champions League
24922011-04-062011-04-07alvinTng1RightI'll finish watching all the DVDs by tomorrow.
24932011-04-062014-08-09puya21WrongBush will commit suicide by the next 3 years.
24942011-04-062011-12-29puya4WrongProject and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year.
24972011-04-062011-04-06sailoryoon1WrongI will go shopping tonight with boy friend.
24982011-04-072011-04-07Ye1RightI will watch at least 2 movies by midnight
24992011-04-072011-05-12etrecheesecake1RightI will get a 4.0 in my class.
25002011-04-072011-04-07sailoryoon2WrongI will finish tutorial 1 tonight for project management subject.
25072011-04-082011-04-10DavidPercival2WrongIt will rain for my soccer match tomorrow.
25082011-04-082016-04-08Nic_Smith2RightMercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now.
25112011-04-082011-07-08alvinTng1RightMy rent will increase in June
25122011-04-092011-04-12Sandra Åhlén3Wrong"Rare pink diamond to fetch £7m at auction"
25132011-04-092011-04-11minhduc2RightLiverpool will win Manchester City
25142011-04-092011-04-10nam20011Wrongmy nose will recover "cold" tomorrow
25152011-04-092011-04-16nam20011WrongMU 1-2 Chelsea next week game!
25162011-04-092011-04-10wael1RightI'm going to hunt and fish weighing half Kg
25212011-04-102011-04-15nam20011Rightshe will call me or text me next weekend for dinner!
25222011-04-102011-06-30kallman3RightGoogle will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents
25232011-04-102011-05-04Sandra Åhlén1WrongI will get a Credit for Finance & Project Management Assignment 1
25242011-04-102012-12-12Ye19WrongNorthern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012
25252011-04-112011-04-11Ben Doherty1Right10 or more people will attend tonight's compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt)
25262011-04-112011-04-11Ben Doherty1Right5 or more people will attend tonight’s compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt)
25302011-04-112011-04-12puya1WrongBen will be late for tomorrows class.
25312011-04-112011-04-16nam20011Wrongmy cold will cover next 3 days, please!
25322011-04-112013-01-01nam200114Right2012 is not end of this world!
25332011-04-112011-09-16Eunseo2WrongThis summer in North hemisphere will be the hottest weather ever.
25342011-04-122012-01-01Nic_Smith1WrongMy scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level this year.
25352011-04-122012-04-12Nic_Smith2WrongMy scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year.
25382011-04-132011-06-13Sandra Åhlén1WrongNiklas Eliasson will be sentenced to 14 years in prison
25392011-04-132011-06-13Sandra Åhlén1WrongNiklas Eliason will be sentenced to psychiatric care
25402011-04-132011-04-13Ye1RightTo save money, I will cook my own dinner tonight.
25412011-04-142011-05-05dumun4RightMan UTD will beat Shalke 04 on semi-final of Champhions League.
25422011-04-142011-04-18wael1RightMy sketch design will finish after 3 days?
25432011-04-152011-06-17niekjetten3WrongI think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011)
25442011-04-152011-04-16minhduc1RightTomorrow, It will rain when I wake up!
25452011-04-152011-04-17minhduc2WrongReal Madrid will win Barcelona on Sunday
25462011-04-152016-04-15Nic_Smith1RightI will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years.
25472011-04-162011-04-17Nic_Smith1RightThe string cheese that I left in the TA office is still there.
25482011-04-162016-04-16nam20013WrongTV soon will come out with super wide-screen 2.35:1
25492011-04-162013-04-16nam20015Wrongelevator will be control by voice?
25502011-04-162021-04-16nam20012PC at home will disappear in future
25512011-04-162021-04-16nam20012There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human?
25522011-04-162511-04-16nam20012Invisible clothes will be real in 5OO years later
25532011-04-162011-05-16alvinTng1WrongThere will 2 constituencies won by the opposition parties in the coming S'pore election.
25562011-04-172011-04-22puya2Wrongben will do the first floor of the opt model.
25572011-04-182011-04-22sailoryoon1RightI will go easter show on Friday.
25582011-04-182011-04-27sailoryoon1RightI will get new mornitor within this week.
25652011-04-202111-04-20nam20013Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future!
25662011-04-202011-04-27Eunseo1WrongAfter Easter holiday, the temperature will be down more than 5 degrees.
25672011-04-202011-04-26Eunseo4WrongI will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday.
25702011-04-212011-04-28nam20011WrongMy Car's angels eyes order will come the end of next week! :( too late!
25712011-04-212011-04-22alvinTng2WrongMy diarrhoea will stop tomorrow.
25722011-04-222011-04-24wael1RightI will talk to more than 100 people on Saturday
25732011-04-222011-04-24Ben Doherty1RightThere will be more than 4 people in attendance at the Sydney Less Wrong meetup at some point while I'm there. http://bit.ly/dXMiL0
25762011-04-242011-05-05Jase9r3WrongThe yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin
25772011-04-242011-08-24minhduc2RightDespite the warning of International Rivers Network (IRN), Laos will keep building Xayaburi hydroelectric dam on Mekong River.
25802011-04-252011-04-26Sandra Åhlén2RightAt least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow.
25812011-04-252011-04-26Sandra Åhlén1WrongGroup meeting will finish before 11.30 tomorrow.
25822011-04-252011-05-06Sandra Åhlén2RightMatt will submit a physical model at his next presentation
25852011-04-262011-05-01sailoryoon1WrongI will finish my elective assignment within this week.
25862011-04-262011-04-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a presentation on Thursday.
25872011-04-262011-05-13Sandra Åhlén2RightEric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011
25882011-04-262011-05-15Sandra Åhlén1WrongEric Saade will win Eurovision Song Contest 2011
25892011-04-262011-04-26Nic_Smith1WrongHazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me.
25902011-04-262011-04-26Nic_Smith1RightHazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me.
25912011-04-262011-04-26Nic_Smith1WrongHazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me.
25952011-04-282011-04-30DavidPercival1WrongThe vicar will pronounce William or Kate's name wrong during the Royal Wedding.
25962011-04-282011-04-30DavidPercival1RightMy soccer game will be called off this weekend.
25992011-04-282011-05-08alvinTng1RightTanjong Pagar will win in the coming SG election for the 11th time.
26002011-04-292011-05-01sailoryoon1RightI will study all night after finish work during weekends.
26012011-04-292011-04-29Nic_Smith1WrongA student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour.
26122011-04-302011-05-01Ben Doherty1WrongThe coastal trail will take less than 6 hours tomorrow
26132011-04-302011-05-01Ben Doherty1RightThe coastal trail will take less than 8 hours tomorrow
26142011-04-302011-05-07nam20011Wrongi will watch fast and furious within this week
26182011-05-012011-05-01minhduc2RightLiverpool will defeat Newcastle tonight.
26192011-05-012012-12-16Jessica Hartany3RightChina will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong
26202011-05-012011-06-01minhduc1RightBarcelona will win the 2010-2011 La Liga title .
26212011-05-012011-05-01minhduc2WrongThe result of the match between Arsenal and Man United will be a draw.
26222011-05-012011-07-01minhduc4WrongGaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months.
26232011-05-012011-05-01minhduc1RightI will get up at 7.30 am tomorrow.
26242011-05-012011-05-03minhduc1RightNext tuesday, at least one member in my group will not come before 6pm.
26292011-05-012011-06-12gwern1WrongBitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks --cjb
26302011-05-022012-04-01gwern1Wrong_Evangelion_ manga: Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas
26322011-05-032011-05-07gwern1Wrong PatrickRobotham write >=500 words on cantor set searches in Haskell
26332011-05-032011-06-03DavidPercival3WrongThere will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month.
26382011-05-042011-07-04minhduc10WrongBin Laden is still alive!
26422011-05-072011-07-07DavidPercival3WrongTottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season.
26432011-05-072011-06-07DavidPercival2WrongThere will be a terrorist attack in the USA in the next month.
26442011-05-072011-05-09minhduc2RightLiverpool will win Fulham tomorrow
26452011-05-072011-05-08minhduc2WrongChelsea will win Manchester United.
26462011-05-072011-05-28minhduc3WrongChelsea will get the Premier League title this season.
26492011-05-072011-06-16wael4WrongEgypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel
26502011-05-082011-07-08Sandra Åhlén1WrongThe unidentified object in Stockholms archipelago was a submarine
26512011-05-082011-05-22gwern3Wrong"...in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” --Haubert/Brown
26522011-05-082011-10-22gwern12Wrong“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” --Haubert/Brown
26532011-05-082013-01-01gwern2Wrong_Evangelion 3.0_ will open with a scene that has "something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab"
26542011-05-082013-01-01gwern1Wrong_Evangelion 3.0_: first scene will be flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1
26682011-05-112030-01-01gwern3The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030.
26692011-05-112011-05-16sailoryoon1RightI will finish project management assignment by Monday night.
26702011-05-112011-05-18sailoryoon1WrongI will loose weight 2kg before graduation ceremony
26732011-05-122011-05-12minhduc1RightThere will be no one at home when Im back!
26742011-05-122011-06-30Mel Eclarinal2RightThere will be another natural disaster somewhere in the world before the end of June.
26782011-05-132011-05-14Ben Doherty1RightMore than 5 students will come to my class today
26792011-05-132011-05-14Ben Doherty1Rightmore than 10 students will come to my class today
26802011-05-152011-05-15minhduc2WrongLiverpool will beat Tottenham in Anfield tonight
26812011-05-152011-05-17minhduc1WrongI will finish The City assignment by Tuesday
26822011-05-152011-05-16Sandra Åhlén1WrongSweden will beat Finland in the World Cup final tonight
26832011-05-152011-05-15alvinTng1RightI'll be the earliest for my meeting tomorrow morning.
26842011-05-152011-05-20alvinTng1WrongThe note I bought online will arrive by friday.
26872011-05-162011-05-21DavidPercival2RightMy MRI scan on Friday will cost no more than $290
26902011-05-182011-05-19minhduc2RightPorto will win Braga tonight.
26962011-05-202020-01-16Ben Doherty5There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games.
26972011-05-202012-11-06DavidPercival3RightBarack Obama will be reelected in the next US election.
27012011-05-222195-02-16gwern5'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis
27182011-05-242011-05-24Ben Doherty1RightNo more than 5 of my students will meet today's pin up deadline
27192011-05-252011-05-27Ben Doherty6RightAt 3pm this Friday there will be 5 or fewer projects pinned up.
27202011-05-252011-05-27Ben Doherty5Right5 or fewer students will present and cover all 4 requirements.
27212011-05-252011-05-27Ben Doherty2WrongWe will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Friday.
27222011-05-252011-08-15travis20103RightTiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011
27232011-05-252012-01-01gwern1RightI will finish reading the EML archives by 2012.
27242011-05-262040-01-01gwern4Final _Gerald F. Ford_-class carrier launched by 2040.
27252011-05-262015-01-01gwern3WrongGlobal circumnavigation by solar aircraft
27262011-05-262027-01-01gwern5'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027
27272011-05-262029-01-01gwern5'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029
27282011-05-262021-01-01gwern4'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021
27292011-05-262016-01-01gwern6Wrong"The world's first lunar tourist" by 2016
27302011-05-262014-01-01gwern1Wrong"14 nanometre chips enter mass production" in 2013.
27312011-05-262016-01-01gwern1Wrong'10 nanometre chips enter mass production'
27322011-05-262014-01-01gwern2Wrong'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy'
27332011-05-272021-01-01gwern7'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021
27342011-05-272037-01-01gwern6"Alzheimer's disease is fully curable" by 2037
27352011-05-272019-01-01gwern5Wrong'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019
27362011-05-272011-05-28DavidPercival1WrongMy credit card wil be one of the ones blocked by Westpac after the security breach!
27372011-05-272011-05-28alvinTng1RightThe testing of fire alarm will go off again tomorrow morning.
27382011-05-282013-01-01JoshuaZ2WrongThe discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012.
27392011-05-282011-05-28minhduc2RightAfter the first half, the result of the match between Manchester and Barcelona will be a draw.
27402011-05-282011-05-28minhduc2WrongMessi will not get any goal tonight!
27412011-05-282011-05-29Sandra Åhlén1WrongHernández will score the first goal in the CL final
27422011-05-292011-05-30Ben Doherty2WrongWe will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Monday
27432011-05-292011-05-29Ye1RightI will return all the books from library today.
27442011-05-292013-01-01Eunseo2RightKorea will keep the record as the first ranking of suicide rate till end of 2011.
27452011-05-292011-05-30Eunseo2RightI will finish my time line infographic of floating city formation by tommorrow.
27462011-05-292011-06-15Eunseo5RightI will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation.
27472011-05-292011-05-30Jessica Hartany2WrongVic Steamers will win Monday night's touch footy game.
27482011-05-292011-06-01Jessica Hartany3WrongMy laptop will get fixed by Wednesday.
27492011-05-292011-05-29Ye2RightVettel will win the Monaco Grand Prix.
27502011-05-292011-06-30Jessica Hartany3Rightnevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car - http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/
27512011-05-292030-12-15Jessica Hartany8Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html
27522011-05-292011-05-30Ye1RightIt will rain all day today
27532011-05-312011-06-05Sandra Åhlén2WrongRobin Söderling will win French Open 2011
27542011-05-312011-06-05Sandra Åhlén2WrongDjokovic will win French Open 2011
27552011-05-312011-06-01Sandra Åhlén2WrongSöderling will beat Nadal in the French Open quarter final
27562011-05-312051-05-31nam20015Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years
27652011-06-022011-06-03alvinTng1WrongAt least 3 parcels will arrive this afternoon.
27662011-06-032011-06-06gwern1WrongBitcoin 'hits $22 before monday' --BrideTrollApprentice
27672011-06-042011-06-06Sandra Åhlén2WrongFederer will beat Nadal in the French Open final
27682011-06-042011-06-04Sandra Åhlén2WrongJess will be back in the labs before midnight
27692011-06-042011-06-18Eunseo1RightSandra will win in prediction competition at the end of semester.
27702011-06-042011-07-01gwern6WrongBitcoin >=$100 by July 1 --the-ace
27742011-06-052013-01-01ZrCa2RightThere will be fewer than 64 new comics posted on http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com between 1.6.2011 and 1.1.2013
27752011-06-062012-01-06DavidPercival1WrongAustralian refugees will be processed through Nauru again by the end of 2011.
27762011-06-062012-11-05TheHumanite7RightBarack Obama will win reelection.
27802011-06-072011-06-08Sandra Åhlén1RightZlatan will score at least one goal in tonights Euro2012 qualifier
27852011-06-072056-01-01gwern4'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C'
27862011-06-072041-01-01gwern4'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C'
27872011-06-072021-01-01gwern4'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C'
27882011-06-072055-01-01gwern6'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055
27892011-06-072030-01-01gwern1'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids'
27902011-06-072020-01-01gwern3Wrong'Smart meters in every UK home'
27912011-06-072040-01-01gwern8'The final collapse of the European Union'
27992011-06-092012-06-09gwern1Right'Facebook will have an IPO within 1 year: 40% confidence' --Arthur Breitman
28002011-06-092013-06-07gwern5Right‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ --Arthur Breitman
28012011-06-092016-06-07gwern5Right'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' --Arthur Breitman
28022011-06-092011-06-30Saliency2RightChristine Lagarde will be the next IMF president.
28032011-06-092050-01-01JoshuaZ14Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050.
28042011-06-122011-06-12Ye1WrongI will finish elective assignment tonight
28182011-06-172028-01-01gwern2850% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg
28192011-06-172050-01-01gwern2190% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg
28202011-06-182011-09-18tedks1WithdrawnIn the next 3 months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from end-users of bitcoins who are running the GNU/Linux operating system.
28212011-06-182011-09-18tedks4RightIn the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user's GNU/Linux system being compromised.
28222011-06-182011-12-01niekjetten11WrongGreece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today
28232011-06-192011-09-02bobpage7WrongGreece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC
28272011-06-212012-02-20JoshuaZ19WrongObama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 )
28302011-06-222019-01-01gwern6Wrong"Polygamy is granted legal status in the US."
28312011-06-222019-01-01gwern4Wrong"The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each."
28322011-06-222019-01-01gwern2Wrong"A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia."
28332011-06-222019-01-01gwern4Wrong"Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right."
28382011-06-272041-01-01gwern12P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken
28392011-06-272021-01-01gwern13Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton
28402011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Right' No circuit lower bound of {{1000n}} or better will be proved for SAT.' in 2011 --Lipton
28412011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Wrong'A Computer Scientist will win a Nobel Prize.' --Lipton
28422011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Wrong'The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.' in 2011 --Lipton
28432011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Graph Isomorphism will be proved to be reducible to the Graph Reconstruction Problem.' in 2011 --Lipton
28442011-06-272012-01-01gwern3Wrong'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 --Lipton
28452011-06-272012-06-27gwern2WrongGreece will not default on or shave its bondholders. --Stefan Homburg
28462011-06-282013-06-30puya5WrongThe Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan.
28472011-06-282011-08-30puya3WrongMourinho's fear over Barcelona will make him leave Real Madrid in this season.
28482011-06-282014-06-30puya9WrongUTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014.
28552011-06-292011-12-29Michael Stevens2WrongGreek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds
28562011-06-292100-01-01gwern14the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky
28662011-07-022011-09-02Ben Doherty4WrongWe will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months
28712011-07-022011-10-10gwern6WrongHaruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel
28722011-07-022011-10-10gwern2WrongDon Delillo for 2011 Literature Nobel
28732011-07-022011-10-10gwern4WrongPhilip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel
28762011-07-032012-07-03ZrCa6Wrong"You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now." - Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976)
28832011-07-042013-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga.
28872011-07-052011-07-10Sandra Åhlén1RightThe initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $30 a tonne
28882011-07-052011-07-10Sandra Åhlén1RightThe initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $40 a tonne
29052011-07-102061-01-01gwern10By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner
29102011-07-112016-07-11gwern3RightI will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years.
29112011-07-122012-01-01gwern6WrongI will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article.
29202011-07-142013-01-01dakyne8WrongSilver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012.
29212011-07-142011-07-23JoshuaZ3RightThe final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents.
29222011-07-152015-05-01bobpage2WrongFrom May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP.
29232011-07-152011-08-02Sandra Åhlén6RightThe US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2
29262011-07-152016-01-01bobpage3Wrong"We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. - from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet," PayPal President Scott Thompson
29272011-07-162013-01-01dakyne14WrongSpot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012.
29282011-07-172011-08-01gwern2RightMy SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed.
29292011-07-182011-07-27JoshuaZ1RightMy entry will win the GitP 28th PrC contest.
29332011-07-202011-07-25Sandra Åhlén1WrongThomas Voeckler will win Tour de France 2011
29342011-07-202011-07-25Sandra Åhlén1WrongAndy Schleck will win Tour de France 2011
29352011-07-202011-07-25Sandra Åhlén1WrongContador will win Tour de France 2011
29362011-07-202012-11-06Jach10WrongMichele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day
29372011-07-212013-08-01bobpage1WrongI will write programs between January 2013 and July 2013 (inclusive) and do a majority of this programming on a monitor in portrait orientation
29382011-07-212012-03-01bobpage5WrongI will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012
29392011-07-212017-07-01bobpage4RightBetween January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm
29402011-07-212021-01-01gwern11"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan
29412011-07-212051-02-01Konkvistador7By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value.
29502011-07-262011-07-30gwern1WrongMy last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma.
29542011-07-282011-10-31scav18RightA 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year.
29552011-07-282013-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle will buy Spotify
29562011-07-282011-08-06Nic_Smith1RightI will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today.
29572011-07-302011-08-02Sandra Åhlén1RightRBA will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting
29582011-07-302011-09-15bobpage12WrongThe US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15
29592011-08-012011-08-19gwern2RightI will win the LW SRS contest.
29682011-08-032016-01-16papermachine12WrongThe US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season.
29692011-08-042011-09-05bobpage2WrongMyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances
29722011-08-042013-08-04gwern6Wrong"Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years" --Roger Ver
29732011-08-042011-11-01gwern1RightI will be accepted by the Good Judgement Team.
29742011-08-042011-11-01gwern2RightMorendil will be accepted by the Good Jugdgement Team.
29752011-08-052016-08-05papermachine11WrongTerence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years.
29762011-08-052013-01-01bobpage3RightI will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2012
29772011-08-052012-01-01gwern3WrongDow Jones below 10,000 at end of year.
29782011-08-052015-01-01gwern2RightI will complete the Good Judgment Project and be paid the full honorarium.
29792011-08-082013-01-01bobpage2WrongApple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC
29802011-08-082011-09-08gwern3WrongRoger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month.
29812011-08-092013-01-01bobpage4RightI will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC
29822011-08-092012-08-15bobpage8WrongBy default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer.
29872011-08-092012-01-01JoshuaZ1RightThe Dow Jones will be at least 10,000 on January 1st, 2012
29882011-08-092012-09-01JoshuaZ14RightThe Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars.
29892011-08-092012-02-09JoshuaZ6RightThe Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months.
29902011-08-092023-01-01JoshuaZ7The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.
29912011-08-102012-04-01bobpage5RightNext iPad refresh ("iPad 3" or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display
29922011-08-102016-08-10JoshuaZ4In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal.
29992011-08-122046-09-01gwern5" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now"
30002011-08-122011-08-13bobpage2WrongFirefox 6 will build correctly on Windows 7 on my first try (note: FF5 built just fine a few months ago)
30012011-08-132050-01-01gwern5China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC
30022011-08-132050-01-01gwern5US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC
30032011-08-132050-01-01gwern3India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC
30042011-08-132050-01-01gwern9India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC
30052011-08-132050-01-01gwern3Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 --HSBC
30062011-08-132050-01-01gwern5American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC
30072011-08-132050-01-01gwern3Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 --HSBC
30082011-08-132050-01-01gwern4Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies --HSBC
30092011-08-132050-01-01gwern4Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 --HSBC
30102011-08-132013-12-31gwern13Wrong'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' --Intrade
30112011-08-132012-12-31gwern7Wrong'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' --Intrade
30122011-08-132014-12-31gwern13Wrong'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' --Intrade
30132011-08-132017-01-01gwern7WrongRon Paul will be dead by 2017.
30142011-08-132012-08-30gwern3Wrong'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012'
30152011-08-132012-08-30gwern6Wrong"Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30162011-08-132013-01-01gwern12Wrong"Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012" --Intrade
30172011-08-132012-08-30gwern2Wrong"Gary Johnson to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30182011-08-132012-08-30gwern11Wrong"Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30192011-08-132011-12-31gwern1Wrong"Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30202011-08-132012-12-31gwern6Wrong"Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30212011-08-132013-12-31gwern1Right"Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30222011-08-132011-12-31gwern4Wrong"David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30232011-08-132011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30242011-08-132011-08-13gwern1Right"Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll" --Intrade
30252011-08-132012-02-05gwern2Right"Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012" --Intrade
30262011-08-132012-08-30gwern3Wrong"Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30272011-08-132013-01-01gwern4Wrong"Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012" --Intrade
30282011-08-132012-02-01gwern3Wrong"Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary" --Intrade
30292011-08-132012-01-28gwern5Wrong"Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary" --Intrade
30302011-08-132013-12-16papermachine1WithdrawnChris Hayes gets his own show on MSNBC before 2014.
30312011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30322011-08-142012-12-31gwern3Wrong"The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30332011-08-142013-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30342011-08-142012-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30352011-08-142011-12-31gwern1Right"Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30362011-08-142011-09-30gwern2Wrong"Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011"
30372011-08-142011-12-30gwern1Wrong"Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011"
30382011-08-142011-12-31gwern6Wrong"Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30392011-08-142011-12-31gwern5Wrong"Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011"
30402011-08-142011-09-30gwern6Wrong"Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade
30412011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30422011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30432011-08-142012-12-31gwern2Wrong"An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30442011-08-142013-12-31gwern1Wrong"An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30452011-08-142011-09-30gwern3Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade
30462011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30472011-08-142012-06-30gwern2Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012" --Intrade
30482011-08-142012-12-31gwern5Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30492011-08-142011-12-30gwern3Wrong"Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30502011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30512011-08-142012-12-31gwern2Wrong"China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30522011-08-142013-12-31gwern6Wrong"China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30532011-08-142011-12-31gwern5Wrong"Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30542011-08-142011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30552011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30562011-08-142012-12-31gwern5Wrong"Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30572011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30582011-08-142014-12-31gwern6Wrong"Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014" --Intrade
30592011-08-142011-12-31gwern1Wrong"Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30602011-08-142012-12-31gwern3Wrong"Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30612011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30622011-08-142011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30632011-08-142012-12-31gwern3Wrong"Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30642011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30652011-08-142011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30662011-08-142012-12-31gwern2Wrong"Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30672011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30682011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30692011-08-142012-12-31gwern4Wrong"Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30702011-08-142013-12-31gwern3Wrong"Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30712011-08-142011-12-31gwern14Wrong"Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30722011-08-142012-12-31gwern9Wrong"Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30732011-08-142013-12-31gwern11Wrong"Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30742011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30752011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30762011-08-142012-01-07gwern2Wrong"Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher" --Intrade
30772011-08-142012-01-03gwern2Wrong"125 or more US banks to fail during 2011" --Intrade
30782011-08-162011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30792011-08-162011-09-01gwern3Right"Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011" --Intrade
30802011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong"Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30812011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Right"Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30822011-08-162012-01-01gwern1Right"United States GDP growth for Q2 of 2011 will be positive" --Intrade
30832011-08-162011-08-31gwern4Wrong"Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011" --Intrade
30842011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong"The US Economy will go into Recession during 2011" --Intrade
30852011-08-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong"Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1600 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30862011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong"Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30872011-08-162011-12-31Emanuel Rylke7WrongGoogle will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012
30882011-08-162045-01-01JoshuaZ7Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045
30892011-08-162014-01-01JoshuaZ2RightHarry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013
30902011-08-162012-11-05cmessinger10RightObama will be elected President in 2012
30952011-08-172012-11-06Alexander Kruel2RightObama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012.
30962011-08-172030-01-01Alexander Kruel19Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030
30972011-08-172030-01-01Alexander Kruel10By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.
30982011-08-172013-08-17Alexander Kruel11WrongI will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013.
30992011-08-172012-01-01Alexander Kruel7WrongSyrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011.
31032011-08-182012-12-16Jach8RightThe Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King
31042011-08-182012-12-16Jach3RightSecond edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012
31052011-08-182013-10-16Jach4WrongNintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones
31062011-08-182016-10-16Jach10WrongClojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub
31092011-08-182016-01-01JoshuaZ2WrongThe James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015
31102011-08-182020-01-01JoshuaZ5WrongThe James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019
31132011-08-182011-12-01JoshuaZ2WrongThe kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn
31172011-08-182020-01-01JoshuaZ7RightThe Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020.
31182011-08-182011-08-18u_1Rightcousin_it is the other vladimir
31192011-08-182012-01-16Jach3RightI will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800
31202011-08-202012-08-20gwern10WrongGoogle+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year.
31212011-08-202012-08-20gwern3WrongGoogle+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign.
31242011-08-202011-08-27gwern1WrongEither of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest
31252011-08-202021-08-20gwern11"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen
31282011-08-222014-01-01gwern9WrongA Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon.
31292011-08-222013-08-22Michael Stevens3RightNokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years
31302011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was one of the 6 named billionaires.
31312011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi.
31322011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was Bezos.
31332011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was Peter Thiel.
31342011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was Charles Simonyi
31352011-08-232012-02-01gwern1Wrong'I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.' --Robert X Cringely
31362011-08-232013-06-01gwern5Wrong"When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU." --Robert X Cringely
31372011-08-232012-06-01gwern4Wrong"I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis." --Robert X Cringely
31382011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 1
31392011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 2
31402011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 3
31412011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 5
31422011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 6
31432011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 8
31442011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 9
31452011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 10
31462011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 11
31472011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 12
31482011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 13
31492011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 14
31502011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 15
31512011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 16
31542011-08-242012-01-01gwern1Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31552011-08-242012-01-01gwern3Wrong"Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31562011-08-242011-10-10gwern4Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade
31572011-08-242012-03-31gwern7Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012" --Intrade
31582011-08-242012-07-01gwern3Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012" --Intrade
31592011-08-242012-10-01gwern8Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012" --Intrade
31602011-08-242013-01-01gwern2Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
31612011-08-242012-01-01gwern3Right"Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31642011-08-242011-08-25bobpage5WrongA scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC
31652011-08-242012-01-01gwern2Wrong"Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31662011-08-242019-01-01gwern6Wrong"Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31672011-08-242019-01-01gwern3Wrong"John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court"
31682011-08-242012-01-01bobpage1WrongI will be the primary developer of an app in Apple's iOS App Store, where such app is published and publicly available before 2012-01-01 UTC
31692011-08-242019-01-01gwern3Wrong"Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31702011-08-242019-01-01gwern4Wrong"Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31712011-08-242017-01-02gwern6Right"Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court"
31722011-08-242019-01-01gwern5Right"Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31732011-08-242019-01-01gwern5Wrong"Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31742011-08-242019-01-01gwern4Wrong"Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31752011-08-242014-01-01bobpage2WrongBetween 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard
31762011-08-242013-01-01bobpage2RightI will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC
31772011-08-242014-01-01bobpage2RightI will burn any kind of optical disc between 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC
31782011-08-242015-01-01bobpage2RightI will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC
31792011-08-242013-01-01bobpage6WrongBitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC
31802011-08-242012-01-01bobpage5WrongI will watch all 26 episodes of Gantz before 2012-01-01 UTC
31812011-08-242013-01-01bobpage14Rightgwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC)
31842011-08-252011-08-28bobpage2RightMy DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part
31852011-08-252011-09-02bobpage1WithdrawnEveryDNS will stop responding to DNS requests before 2011-09-02 00:00 UTC
31862011-08-262011-09-30JoshuaZ3RightThere will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101.
31872011-08-262011-09-01JoshuaZ2RightMy apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene.
31882011-08-272011-08-30gwern1WrongMy house will lose power when Hurricane Irene hits.
31892011-08-272011-08-30gwern2WrongMy house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits.
31902011-08-282013-06-01gwern6Wrong2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP --Michael Pettis
31912011-08-282013-01-01gwern2Right"Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next." --Michael Pettis
31922011-08-282015-01-01gwern4Right2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% --Michael Pettis
31932011-08-282020-01-01gwern4Wrong"[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade" --Michael Pettis
31942011-08-282013-01-01gwern2Wrong2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% --Michael Pettis
31952011-08-282020-01-01gwern8WrongSpain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro --Michael Pettis
31962011-08-282017-01-01gwern3Wrong2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth --Michael Pettis
31972011-08-292012-03-15JoshuaZ6RightI will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74.
32002011-08-292013-01-01gwern6Wrong"Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?" --Intrade
32012011-08-292011-11-01Øx8WrongAnderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show.
32022011-08-292012-03-01Øx7WrongLady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE.
32032011-08-292011-12-01Øx5WrongObama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project.
32042011-08-292012-01-01Øx6WrongMadonna's new movie "W.E." will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes
32052011-08-292011-09-18Øx5Wrong"Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star" will get an average critic's rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com
32112011-08-312030-01-01JoshuaZ5RightBefore January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm.
32122011-08-312045-01-01JoshuaZ9RightBefore January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm.
32132011-08-312020-01-01JoshuaZ4RightBefore January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm.
32142011-09-012011-10-01gwern1Wrongamigojapan on #lesswrong will translate a paragraph of the Anno _Toprunner_ show for me.
32152011-09-012011-10-01gwern8WrongI will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive
32162011-09-012011-09-04gwern5WrongI will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday
32172011-09-012012-07-01gwern1RightThe new exchange student from Sweden will last out the full school year.
32182011-09-012013-01-01bobpage5WrongI will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC
32192011-09-022031-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.
32202011-09-022020-01-01JoshuaZ5WrongBy 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
32212011-09-022025-01-01JoshuaZ5By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
32222011-09-022035-01-01JoshuaZ12By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
32232011-09-022018-01-01JoshuaZ5WrongBy 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct.
32242011-09-032012-09-03Sandra Åhlén7WrongUsain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics
32252011-09-032015-09-03JoshuaZ2WrongFlorian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent.
32262011-09-042013-01-01JoshuaZ4WrongBy the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst.
32272011-09-042012-01-15Laurent Bossavit4WrongAn e-reader device incorporating an "electrowetting" display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show.
32282011-09-042012-02-01gwern2WrongLW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme.
32312011-09-042012-09-04JoshuaZ7RightThe "Counterexamples to Relativity" page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year
32322011-09-042012-09-04JoshuaZ11RightThe Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin
32332011-09-042012-09-04JoshuaZ4RightPZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year.
32342011-09-042011-12-01JoshuaZ5RightBefore December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB
32352011-09-042020-01-01JoshuaZ32RightNo nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)
32362011-09-042015-11-01ArisKatsaris22Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black
32372011-09-042015-11-02ArisKatsaris21Right_HP MoR_: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death.
32402011-09-052011-09-30gwern4Wrong"Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011" (excluding death) --Intrade
32412011-09-062012-08-01gwern7Wrong(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012.
32422011-09-062011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
32432011-09-062012-12-31gwern11RightGJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012
32442011-09-062011-12-31gwern6Wrong"King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
32452011-09-062012-03-01gwern10RightGJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012
32462011-09-062012-05-06gwern8WrongNicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 --Intrade
32472011-09-072012-12-31gwern4WrongGJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012
32482011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1001: Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011?
32492011-09-072012-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1002: Who will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012? (a) Medvedev
32502011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1003: Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011?
32512011-09-072011-09-29gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1004: Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by 30 September 2011?
32522011-09-072011-12-30gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1005: Will Daniel Ortega win another term as President of Nicaragua during the late 2011 elections?
32532011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011?
32542011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011?
32552011-09-072011-12-30gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1008: By 31 December 2011, will the World Trade Organization General Council or Ministerial Conference approve the "accession package" for WTO membership for Russia?
32562011-09-072011-12-31gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq?
32572011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1010: Will the 30 Sept 2011 “last” PPB for Nov 2011 Brent Crude oil futures* exceed $115?
32582011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1011: Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading at or above 9,500 on 30 September 2011?
32592011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1012: Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 October 2011?
32602011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1013: Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1850 on 30 September 2011 (10am ET)?
32612011-09-072011-09-30gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1014: Who will win the September 2011 Guatemalan presidential election, or will a run-off be needed? (c) Other or Run-Off
32622011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1015: Will Israel's ambassador be formally invited to return to Turkey by 30 September 2011?
32632011-09-072011-10-11gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1016: Will PM Donald Tusk's Civic Platform Party win more seats than any other party in the October 2011 Polish parliamentary elections?
32642011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1017: Will Robert Mugabe cease to be President of Zimbabwe by 30 September 2011?
32652011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1018: Will Muqtada al-Sadr formally support for the current Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki by 30 September 2011?
32662011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WithdrawnGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1019: Will Ali Abdullah Saleh cease to be Yemen's head of government by 30 September 2011?
32712011-09-072015-01-01gwern2RightNGE: There will not be a live-action _Evangelion_ movie before 2015
32722011-09-072020-01-01gwern5RightNGE: There will not be a live-action _Evangelion_ movie before 2020
32732011-09-072012-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: Rebuild 3.0 will be released in 2011
32742011-09-072013-01-01gwern4RightNGE: 3.0 will be released in 2012
32752011-09-072014-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: 3.0 will be released in 2013
32762011-09-072015-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: 3.0 will be released in 2014
32772011-09-072013-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012
32782011-09-072014-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2013
32792011-09-072015-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2014
32802011-09-072016-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015
32812011-09-072018-01-01gwern2NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing _Rebuild_.
32822011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Hideaki Anno will return to employment at Gainax after _Rebuild_.
32832011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after _Rebuild_.
32842011-09-072018-01-01gwern3NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation
32852011-09-072020-01-03gwern7NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild
32862011-09-072012-03-01gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts
32872011-09-072012-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: 3.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Die"
32882011-09-072012-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: 3.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Be Replaced"
32892011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0.
32902011-09-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: 3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes
32912011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes
32922011-09-072016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes
32932011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoE
32942011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as the NGE64 variant of EoE
32952011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild
32962011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoTV
32972011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last A
32982011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last B
32992011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV
33002011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped
33012011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated
33022011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato
33032011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu
33042011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE
33052011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji
33062011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka
33072011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work
33082011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoE
33092011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV
33102011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop)
33112011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense
33122011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character)
33132011-09-072018-01-01gwern2NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE
33142011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless
33152011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: 3.0 or 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji's heroism in _2.0_ and reveal it to be a sham _a la_ Norman Spinrad's _The Iron Dream_
33162011-09-072013-01-01gwern1WithdrawnNGE: The four Children mentioned in the 3.0 preview turn out to be: Shinji, Mari, Kaworu and Asuka
33172011-09-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in _3.0_ to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power.
33182011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild.
33212011-09-082011-09-15gwern1RightOB-NYC: Zvi Mowshowitz asked that question of Salience because he hated _Valhalla Rising_.
33402011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Asuka is (was) a genetically modified human
33412011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka
33422011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Lorenz Keel is the Pope
33432011-09-092013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0
33442011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0
33452011-09-092011-09-13gwern5WrongHP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 *before* 7PM PST 13 September 2011
33462011-09-092013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: Touji will pilot an Eva in 3.0
33472011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing
33512011-09-092011-09-16gwern2WrongMy email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error.
33522011-09-092011-09-10bobpage3RightI will fix the bug that caused the broken HTML in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2856 today
33532011-09-102011-09-11bobpage4WrongI will find and contact the real recipient of a Fedex package that was incorrectly delivered to my address
33542011-09-102052-01-01bobpage5Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052
33552011-09-102011-09-12bobpage8WrongThere will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq.
33562011-09-102013-01-01bobpage2WithdrawnBitcoinica will be hacked before 2013, resulting in at least partial loss of funds (whether or not customers are affected).
33572011-09-112012-09-11gwern2WrongSteel_ will have a custom capping business (specify a nootropic mix and have it delivered to you) running in a year.
33582011-09-112041-01-01gwern11A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.
33592011-09-112021-09-10gwern20A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021
33672011-09-132020-01-01Gedusa7RightThe personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020.
33682011-09-132011-09-30gwern4WrongBitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily
33692011-09-132012-01-01Gedusa3WrongGreece will leave the European Union by 2012
33762011-09-142012-03-14Will Newsome4WrongSteve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months.
33772011-09-142051-09-15Will Newsome23Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.
33802011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Kaworu's body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA)
33812011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood
33822011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died
33832011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact
34172011-09-192012-01-15JoshuaZ7WrongSpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012
34182011-09-192013-10-16papermachine5WrongThe Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done.
34192011-09-192011-11-24gwern7WrongUS Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011
34222011-09-202021-09-16papermachine11In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).
34242011-09-212013-09-20JoshuaZ4RightSouthern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years.
34272011-09-212020-01-01JoshuaZ8WrongBy 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks.
34282011-09-212041-09-21JoshuaZ7No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )
34312011-09-222011-12-22JoshuaZ46WrongRecent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months.
34322011-09-232012-09-23gwern38Right'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year'
34332011-09-242011-10-25bobpage4WrongThe Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25
34342011-09-242031-09-24Will Newsome6The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app
34762011-09-252023-01-01gwern12Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023
34772011-09-252013-01-01gwern3RightNintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U
34782011-09-252040-01-01gwern7"By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking."
34792011-09-252017-01-01gwern3Wrong"The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out."
34802011-09-252050-01-01gwern4"The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy."
34812011-09-252030-01-01gwern4"Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service"
34822011-09-252017-01-01gwern2Wrong'Completion of the i5K project' by 2017
34832011-09-252012-04-17gwern3WrongThe ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule.
34842011-09-252014-01-01gwern3RightThe Gaia mission will launch in 2013
34852011-09-252015-01-01gwern4Right'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America)
34862011-09-252016-01-01gwern3WrongMasdar City phase 1 complete
34872011-09-252015-09-10gwern27Right'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history'
34882011-09-252017-01-01gwern9WrongIndia's first manned spaceflight by 2017.
34892011-09-252017-01-01gwern4Wrong'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016
34902011-09-252016-01-01gwern5Wrong'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription
34912011-09-252017-01-01gwern4WrongApple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017
34922011-09-252018-01-01gwern3RightM1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018
34932011-09-252018-01-01gwern8Wrong'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon'
34942011-09-252018-01-01gwern4Wrong'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010)
35012011-09-262018-01-01gwern3Wrong'India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam' in 2017.
35022011-09-262018-01-01gwern2Wrong'The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed' in 2017
35032011-09-262019-01-01gwern4Wrong'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018
35042011-09-262018-01-01gwern5Wrong'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017
35052011-09-262018-01-01gwern4Wrong'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017
35062011-09-262012-03-26Laurablack2WrongUbs will sell off its investment arm
35072011-09-262011-12-01Laurablack5RightVettel to win f1 championship
35082011-09-272013-09-27JoshuaZ4RightWithin two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails.
35122011-09-302011-10-07gwern1WrongPatrick Macias will reply within a week.
35152011-10-012011-10-15Isaac3WrongMy next full practice SAT score will be over 2050
35162011-10-012015-01-16Isaac2WrongSweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015
35172011-10-012020-11-16Isaac3A new US Political party will come to power by 2020
35182011-10-012012-02-15Isaac2RightMy practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January
35482011-10-042011-11-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1020 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011?
35492011-10-042011-11-02gwern1RightGJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011?
35502011-10-042011-10-08gwern1WrongGJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?'
35512011-10-042011-11-02gwern1RightGJP: #1023 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011?
35522011-10-042012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1024 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal?
35532011-10-042012-01-01gwern1RightGJP: #1025 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’b) election in post-Mubarak Egypt?
35542011-10-042012-02-01gwern1RightGJP: #1026 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012?
35552011-10-042012-02-01gwern1RightGJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT)
35562011-10-042011-12-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1028 Will Moody’s issue a new downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of the Government of Greece between 3 October 2011 and 30 November 2011?
35572011-10-042011-11-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1029 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011?
35582011-10-042011-11-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1030 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011?
35592011-10-042011-11-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1031 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan?
35602011-10-042011-12-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1032 Will the Japanese government formally announce the decision to buy at least 40 new jet fighters by 30 November 2011?
35612011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved
35622011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I
35632011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel.
35642011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology
35652011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu)
35662011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece
35672011-10-042018-01-01gwern3NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life
35682011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV)
35692011-10-042016-01-01gwern1RightNGE Rebuild: The entity in Terminal Dogma is still Lilith (of NGE TV) in some sense
35702011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: "Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally."
35712011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later
35722011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: There will be no 3rd Impact.
35732011-10-042013-01-01gwern1RightNGE Rebuild: 3.0 will open in the beginning/middle of an Angel attack a la 2.0
35742011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality)
35752011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide
35762011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head
35772011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge
35782011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again)
35792011-10-042012-09-13bobpage6WrongiPhone 5 (not "4S") will launch Sprint-only in the US
35802011-10-042011-10-11Gedusa10RightThere will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th.
35812011-10-042011-11-04gwern5RightLW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month.
35822011-10-042014-10-04gwern25WrongEliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years.
35832011-10-042014-10-04realitygrill1WithdrawnEliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years.
35842011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill an Angel
35852011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill a kitten
35862011-10-042016-01-01gwern1RightNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity
35872011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide
35882011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed
35892011-10-042016-01-01gwern2WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to "Kaworu Nagisanami"
35902011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense
35912011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point
35922011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity
35932011-10-042013-01-01gwern2WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0
35942011-10-042013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0
35952011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo
35962011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand
35972011-10-042013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0
35982011-10-042013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it.
35992011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato
36002011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen
36012011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael
36022011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does
36032011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato
36042011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms
36052011-10-042011-10-12Robert Kosten2WrongGoogle & Samsung will announce the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich at CTIA on 2011-10-11
36062011-10-052021-01-01roxton4When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin.
36162011-10-062013-01-01gwern7WrongSteve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity
36172011-10-062013-01-01gwern6RightSteve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity
36182011-10-062011-10-13gwern1RightGiveWell will accept me as a volunteer.
36222011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending
36232011-10-072016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE manga: Sadamoto's manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji
36242011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings
36252011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect
36262011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0
36272011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in 3.0 preview)
36282011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones
36292011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality
36302011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending
36312011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji
36322011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss
36332011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV)
36342011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime)
36352011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka
36362011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch
36372011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0
36382011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted
36392011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major
36402011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation.
36412011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's _2.0_ flashback
36422011-10-072013-01-01gwern3WrongNGE Rebuild: Asuka will have more screentime in _3.0_ than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her)
36432011-10-072061-10-07JoshuaZ12Chess will be a solved game in 50 years
36442011-10-072061-10-07JoshuaZ9Go will not be solved in the next fifty years.
36452011-10-072016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Asuka will appear little after _2.0_ and have an unimportant off-screen death
36462011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: _3.0_ Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself "Asuka Langley Soryu"
36472011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of
36482011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight
36492011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji
36502011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid
36512011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over
36522011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her
36532011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing
36542011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la _Re-Take_ (not a human-angel hybrid)
36552011-10-072018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo
36562011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending
36572011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0
36582011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point
36592011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?'
36602011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages
36612011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Mari will attend school as a regular student
36622011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else
36632011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi
36642011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid
36652011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid
36662011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva
36672011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07
36682011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia
36692011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one
36702011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense
36712011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley
36722011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half
36732011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse
36742011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji
36752011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE
36762011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE
36772011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group
36782011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans
36792011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo
36802011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch
36812011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in _3.0_ or _4.0_
36822011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka
36832011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV
36842011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01
36852011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji
36862011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07
36872011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08
36882011-10-072013-01-01gwern2RightNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready
36892011-10-072013-01-01gwern2RightNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva
36902011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be nonoperational
36912011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be scrapped
36922011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning
36932011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari
36942011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel
36952011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam
36962011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka
36972011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji
36982011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari
36992011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei
37002011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from _Girlfriend of Steel_
37012011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi
37022011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense
37032011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in _3.0_
37042011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in _4.0_
37052011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat
37062011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed
37072011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith
37082011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei
37092011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva
37102011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03
37112011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot
37122011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in _1.0_ or _2.0_
37132011-10-072011-10-22gwern10WrongHarold Camping: "the whole world...will be annihilated together with the whole physical world"
37142011-10-072011-10-13gwern6Wrong'I predict...a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba'
37152011-10-072012-04-01gwern9Wrongthe Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all.
37162011-10-072020-01-01bobpage26Wrong"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."
37172011-10-072021-01-01gwern13". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King
37182011-10-072015-01-01gwern5Wrong"No American Soap Operas by 2015" --Ken
37192011-10-072020-01-01gwern15Wrong"I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company" --Whutsiznaim
37202011-10-072020-01-01gwern1Withdrawn"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." --chinapatriot
37212011-10-082011-10-12Sandra Åhlén2RightSweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up
37222011-10-082011-11-16Sandra Åhlén1WrongSweden will qualify for Euro 2012 after play-offs
37232011-10-082013-06-13gwern6Right"About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008." --Kevin Kelly
37312011-10-082012-10-01Kaj_Sotala4WrongBy 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people.
37322011-10-082014-01-01Kaj_Sotala6WrongI will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013.
37332011-10-082014-01-01Kaj_Sotala6WrongI will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013.
37502011-10-092026-10-09anandjeyahar12WrongCERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light.
37512011-10-092011-11-08chemotaxis1013WrongBy november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application.
37532011-10-092014-12-31chemotaxis1013WrongI will have completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering by the end of 2014.
37542011-10-092012-11-07chemotaxis10116WrongThird-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election.
37552011-10-092013-01-01bobpage7WrongBefore 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org
37632011-10-102011-10-14Ben Doherty1WrongI will record a sub 20 minute time in the first ABC bi that I do http://goo.gl/BCmJt
37642011-10-102012-03-30Ben Doherty1WrongI will record a sub 20 minute time in any ABC bi that I do this season - http://goo.gl/BCmJt
37762011-10-102011-11-30JoshuaZ1WrongIn Sanderson's "Allow of Law" it will turn out that either Marasi or Steris is (or becomes) a full Mistborn or a full Feruchemist.
37772011-10-102060-01-01bobpage19Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060
37782011-10-102060-01-01bobpage8Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060
37792011-10-102036-10-10JoshuaZ10Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years.
37842011-10-102012-12-22Daniel Mehkeri43RightThe world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end)
37912011-10-112011-10-11Jayson Virissimo2RightA PredictionBook Wikipedia page will be created within the next 30 minutes.
37922011-10-112011-10-26JoshuaZ4RightThe Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks.
37932011-10-112011-11-11JoshuaZ5RightThe Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month.
37942011-10-112012-07-01Jayson Virissimo4Right"Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012."
37952011-10-112013-07-01Jayson Virissimo6Right"S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating."
37962011-10-112012-01-01Jayson Virissimo8WrongAverage global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010.
37972011-10-112013-01-01Jayson Virissimo8RightAverage global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011.
37982011-10-112012-10-11gwern4RightThe PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year.
37992011-10-112013-10-11gwern4RightThe PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years.
38002011-10-112011-10-12chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com1WrongTristan's teacher will report that Tristan is unhappy today. He may or may not talk about having to move.
38012011-10-112011-10-12bobpage1RightCritical Windows updates will be released today (UTC)
38062011-10-122011-10-31Codyz2WrongBMNDR will nontrivially improve my study habits by October 31st.
38112011-10-122011-10-13gwern1WrongMy Modalert will arrive today.
38122011-10-122011-10-14gwern1WrongMy Modalert will arrive tomorrow.
38132011-10-122011-10-15gwern1WrongMy Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow.
38142011-10-122011-12-01bobpage4WrongChrome will ship with the initial release of Android "Ice Cream Sandwich"
38152011-10-122012-12-01bobpage2RightChrome will ship with the first public release of Android "Jelly Bean" (or whatever the major version after "Ice Cream Sandwich" is called)
38162011-10-122012-12-01bobpage4RightThe initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes
38172011-10-122011-10-13Jayson Virissimo1RightI will feel sick again when I donate blood today.
38362011-10-132012-01-01gwern2WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2011
38372011-10-132013-01-01gwern2RightGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2012
38382011-10-132014-01-01gwern2WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2013
38392011-10-132015-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2014
38402011-10-132016-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2015
38412011-10-132017-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2016
38422011-10-132011-10-20Codyz1RightThe Texas Rangers will win the ALCS
38472011-10-152025-01-01JoshuaZ15By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38482011-10-152035-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38492011-10-152045-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38522011-10-152035-01-01JoshuaZ7By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38532011-10-152045-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38542011-10-152055-01-01JoshuaZ4By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38552011-10-152055-01-01JoshuaZ4By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38562011-10-152026-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.
38572011-10-152065-01-01JoshuaZ7By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38582011-10-152075-01-01JoshuaZ4By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38592011-10-152034-01-01JoshuaZ9By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.
38602011-10-152011-12-25JoshuaZ6WrongFobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011.
38612011-10-152020-03-01JoshuaZ6WrongFobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020
38622011-10-162011-10-16bobpage1RightD will call me back today
38632011-10-162011-10-16bobpage1WrongD will visit me today
38752011-10-172011-10-18Isaac4WrongI will go to the gym tomorrow
38762011-10-172011-10-22Isaac3WrongI will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday
38772011-10-172019-01-01JoshuaZ6WrongReservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019
38782011-10-172025-01-01JoshuaZ13Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025
38852011-10-172011-10-17Isaac1WrongI will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes
38862011-10-172012-12-16Nieskens6WrongApple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo.
38892011-10-182011-10-23Arkanj3l3WrongI will "flatline", i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence.
38902011-10-182011-10-21Arkanj3l3WrongMy penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days.
38972011-10-192011-11-30JoshuaZ6RightNo human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry.