#predictedknownuserest.judgedprediction
12008-06-202008-06-20Matt1RightPredictionBook will have an Alpha server running by June 20, 2008
22008-06-202008-06-23Frank1WrongASX will finish above 5440
32008-06-202008-06-30Natalie1WrongSype video will not work next time
42008-06-202008-06-19Natalie1WrongThe epiode "11" of scrubs Series 7 we have just watched is not actually episode 11
52008-06-202008-06-20Adam1RightWe will have validation of result dates
62008-06-202008-06-26Frank1WrongIt will take you until at least next Friday to get an input mask into the percentage field.
72008-06-202008-12-30Trainor7Rightpbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08
82008-06-202008-08-01Lina1WrongWe will be living at 630 Canning by Aug 1st.
122008-06-212008-06-24Miyo1WrongAndy will come home from King Island later than Tuesday
152008-06-212008-05-07Lina1WrongIt will take 2 weeks for Trike to fix the glich that has my predictions going in multiple times.
162008-06-232008-06-24Lina1RightNo one else will make a prediction today.
182008-06-242008-06-24Matt1RightMovies have a smaller _relative_ market share now than 10 yrs ago
192008-06-262008-06-26Adam1Rightpbook will remember my name after this prediction
202008-06-272008-06-27Adam1Rightpbook will deal with input like ßéàüçñåπæœ
212008-06-292008-11-08Lina9RightObama will be the next US president.
242008-07-012008-01-01Andy2WrongQuiksilver shares will finish the year above $11
252008-07-022008-07-04Frank1WrongExcess bagage delivered by end of week (friday)
262008-07-022008-07-16Frank2RightDespite much reading I will be unable to speed up my PS3's web browsing
272008-07-042008-07-08Glenn5RightThe world will not end when the LHC is activated
282008-07-042008-07-04Glenn1RightPer distance travelled, aeroplanes result in less fatalities than helicopters
292008-07-042008-07-04Adam2RightOur deploy of shared predictions will happen without fault
322008-07-062008-06-29Frank1Wrongboth pineal lesions from last week will turn out to be germinomas on histology
332008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1WrongTextile "(classname)links(now way this tooltip is gonna work)":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Textile_(markup_language) render correctly
342008-07-072008-07-13Glenn1Wrong*this weekend* will not work as a result date
352008-07-072008-07-13Glenn1Rightsolid description formatting will be implemented by this weekend
362008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrong@code@ tags will break rendering
372008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrongblockquote bq. tags will break rendering
382008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrongblockquote bq. tags will break rendering
392008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Rightbq. starting a line with blockquote will break rendering
402008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Rightimages will render inline !http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/31/Dancing_Banana.gif!
412008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Rightthe prediction with the dancing banana will annoy Matt
422008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Right<FONT color="#ffffff" size="+1"><MARQUEE bgcolor="#000080" direction="right" loop="20" width="75%"><STRONG>Marquee's will work</STRONG></MARQUEE></FONT>
432008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Right<BLINK>Blink tag will work</BLINK>
442008-07-072008-07-07Glenn1Wrongmulti line predictions will render multiline _=====_ _=====_ / _____ \ / _____ \ +.-'_____'-.---------------------------.-'_____'-.+ / | |
472008-07-072008-07-09Adam3Wrongausthink payment will be done by wednesday
482008-07-072008-07-11Adam3Wrongausthink payment will be done by end of 4 day week
492008-07-072008-07-08Andy1RightWindfinder will be more accurate than Coastalwatch or Swellnet for tomorrow mornings winds
502008-07-072008-07-18Andy2RightMy 6'0" will feel way better with DHD-2's rather than K2.1's
512008-07-072008-07-10Miyo2RightTwo of my three ebay listings will have a bid by Thursday 10pm
522008-07-082008-07-18Kenji2Wrongmodelling and design of bed base will take 15hrs
532008-07-092008-08-09Glenn2Wrongausthink credit credit and paypal payment will be published live
542008-07-092008-08-09Adam2Wrongwe will need pagination on the front page
552008-07-102008-07-24Chantelle3WrongTrike staff will eat all the chocolates and raise money for charity
562008-07-102008-07-11Andy1RightTelstra iphone contracts will be significantly more expensive than Optus
572008-07-102008-07-11Lina2WrongThe iphone wont sell out today
582008-07-132008-07-16Adam2WrongMatt won't use his own website for the next 3 days
592008-07-142008-07-23Frank3RightGerrit will return with new (and proably metrosexual) facial hair
602008-07-142008-07-15Frank2WrongI will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow.
612008-07-142008-08-01Frank1Wrongthat mass I saw today will turn out to be a cystic meningioma on histology
622008-07-152008-07-15Adam2Rightfirst test paypal payment through austhink refactor will fail with an mildly new error message
632008-07-152008-07-21Matt4RightI'll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth's account changes without going to the branch
642008-07-152008-08-30Adam2RightGeneration Kill won't have quite the same depth of story as The Wire
652008-07-152008-07-19Adam2WrongMy account details from HSBC will arrive before the end of the week
662008-07-162009-01-01Glenn5Wrong1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out
672008-07-162008-07-23Andy2RightAfter releuctantly joining Facebook, I will end up with over 25 friend requests within the first week. Unsolicited.
682008-07-162008-07-23Andy2RightBetween 20 and 40% of friend requests will be from people that I don't really want as friends (but I awkwardly accept anyway)
692008-07-162009-01-16Andy2RightI will be able to use Facebook for some mild professional benefit within the next 6 months
702008-07-162010-01-01Glenn5WrongGoogle will buy Twitter by 2010
712008-07-162008-07-17Frank2WrongI will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow.
722008-07-162008-07-18Frank2WrongI will be called in for an angiogram between 8pm and 8 am in the next 3 nights
732008-07-162009-01-01Glenn1Wrongwhen I write jan 1st 2010 it stores as 1st January 2010
742008-07-162008-08-06Glenn1Rightinterpreting 2010 as a 8:10pm (as a bug) will not be fixed for ages
752008-07-162008-08-16Glenn1Wrongambiguous (and proably contradictorily worded) predictions will have some means of 'in app' resolution
762008-07-162008-07-20Glenn1Righttyping 100 years from now as a result date will no longer crash the server
772008-07-162018-07-16Glenn1Rightthe 2010 bug will strike again before it is fixed
782008-07-162008-07-16Glenn1Rightwe will have a judged 100% prediction by the end of today
792008-07-162008-07-16Glenn2Wrongthis prediction is wrong
802008-07-162008-07-21Adam2WrongAuthorize.Net will be the first gateway to return my enquiry with any useful information
812008-07-162009-01-01Lina3RightElectrodrive will post 2 new news items a month for the rest of the year
822008-07-161958-07-16Glenn1Wrongthis prediction will be 'judged' as wrong
832008-07-162008-07-17Glenn1Rightmatt will come into work tomorrow wearing, yet again, one of those sleavless jacket things
842008-07-162008-07-17Glenn2Wrongwe will finish our end of austhink (sans non-bogus gateways)
852008-07-161983-11-03Glenn1Righti was born
862008-07-162008-07-20Glenn1Rightfailed posting as a new name reverts to session stored name will be fixed by end of friday
882008-07-162008-07-30Adam2WrongGlenn will get bored of posting bogus predictions in 2 weeks
892008-07-162008-08-20Frank1Withdrawn7377330 = meningioma, or haemangiopericytoma
912008-07-182038-07-18Adam8The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k
922008-07-182008-07-13Glenn1Wrongthere will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark
932008-07-182009-04-16Frank1Wrong6994767 right temp mass will not be a tumour when resected
942008-07-182008-07-18Matt1RightWithin 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position
952008-07-182008-07-19Frank1Withdrawn7381437 will turn out to be an acoustic schwannoma
962008-07-192008-08-16Frank1Right7370034 = met
972008-07-192008-08-16Frank1Wrong7381792 = meningioma
982008-07-202008-07-21Natalie1Wrongtoenail will fall of by midnight
992008-07-222008-07-23Frank1Rightmy bike will be ready to be picked up on time
1002008-07-222009-01-22Andy2RightPBook will become a fun way of sending messages to friends.
1012008-07-222008-07-24Andy1RightWithin 2 days I will wish I had put the certainty on my last prediction at a higher percentage
1022008-07-222008-07-22Andy1RightThat falafel I had for lunch will come back to say hello
1032008-07-222009-07-22Andy1WrongOver the next year I will use PBook more than Twitter to update friends on what I'm up to (like that falafel thing)
1042008-07-232008-07-25Gerrit2RightFerret will not fail until friday
1052008-07-232008-07-24Gerrit1WrongMy quote for Urban was too low
1062008-07-232008-08-13Gerrit1WithdrawnThree weeks for Urban will turn out to be optimistic
1072008-07-242008-09-16Frank1Right14749874 = cystic meningioma
1082008-07-242008-08-16Frank1WithdrawnHIV pt = viral leukoenchephalitis
1092008-07-242008-08-16Frank1Wrongsame HIV = VZV
1102008-07-252008-10-25Lina2WrongFallshaw (Jo) will win the Woolworths Tug job - Jo' prediction, she's really sure.
1112008-07-262008-08-09Lina1RightGD's clan does not include Mercedes
1122008-07-282008-07-27Glenn1RightAgainst what I've always throught, I (Glenn) am primarily protanomalous, not deuteranomalous.
1132008-07-302008-02-15Glenn1Rightnot being able to comment on your own prediction is silly
1142008-07-302008-07-31Glenn1Rightthis will be the most important prediction EVER
1172008-07-312008-08-02Glenn1RightRobbie Rotten's plans will once again be thwarted
1182008-08-012008-08-01Matt1WrongThe Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths
1192008-08-012008-08-01Glenn2WrongWe will finish user accounts by 5pm
1202008-08-012009-11-11Glenn3WrongThe statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases
1212008-08-012008-08-01Adam1WrongSigur Rós will be awesome but the sound will suck
1222008-08-012008-08-01Matt1RightWhen I click the link in Glenn's bogus comment in my name, it'll be Rick
1232008-08-012008-08-06Glenn1WrongPeople will wonder why it has the form for creating a prediction when you're not logged in
1242008-08-022008-08-09Glenn2WrongUsing ✔ and ✘ on the main page (though not the user page) is elitist behaviour that will be destroyed within a week.
1252008-08-023008-08-02Glenn5Wrongthis will be the most _popular_ prediction EVER
1262008-08-032009-08-03Glenn1Wrongpbook will need some type of legal disclaimer (i.e. privacy policy, user agreement) on signup within a year
1272008-08-032008-12-31Lina1RightI will use the gate out back of canning to park my car in the courtyard at least 10 times this year
1282008-08-042008-08-04Glenn1Wrongthe human eye is at its full size at birth
1292008-08-042008-08-04Glenn1Withdrawnpeople find it more difficult to cope with the loss of a hand than the loss of a foot
1302008-08-052008-09-20Frank1WrongMRN 14751956 adenoid cystic carcinoma of the lacrimal gland
1312008-08-052008-09-20Talia1Wrong14751956 adenoidcystic ca
1322008-08-052008-09-20Talia1Wrong14751956 adenoidcystic ca
1332008-08-072008-10-01Frank1Wrong14546870 = scc of rt scm node
1342008-08-072008-10-01Frank1Right14840002 = TB or Pap T4 to nodes
1352008-08-072008-10-01Frank1Right14840002 = pap thyroid to node
1362008-08-112008-08-12Adam2WrongThe CrmHub api will allow the license key to be checked with only license key as input
1372008-08-112008-08-12Adam2WrongThe CrmHub api will allow all license keys to be retreived using an email address
1382008-08-122008-10-16Frank1Right14733648 = glioma of some kind
1392008-08-122008-10-16Frank1Withdrawn14733648 = gangliocytoma
1402008-08-122008-10-16Frank1Wrong14733648 = gangliocytoma
1412008-08-122008-08-13Frank1Rightcase just now ADEM, Lymphoma, Mets
1422008-08-122008-08-13Frank1Rightcase just now lymphoma
1432008-08-142008-08-20Matt1WrongThe existing crmhub api will allow licenses to be retrieved from an email address (but may require multiple requests)
1442008-08-142008-08-14Glenn1Rightthis will email me a reminder when i tickle it
1452008-08-142008-08-15Glenn1Rightthis will NOT email me when i tickle it. yet
1462008-08-142011-08-14Glenn1Wrong1337 is Lupus
1472008-08-142008-08-14Glenn1Wronga prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i'll have to fix it manually
1482008-08-142008-08-14Glenn1Wronga confidence of 0 will break
1492008-08-142008-11-16Frank1Right14743632 = mengioma
1502008-08-152008-08-15Gerrit1WrongI will get an email
1512008-08-152008-08-15Gerrit1WrongI will get an email
1522008-08-152008-08-15Glenn1Wrongcrontab will work
1532008-08-152008-08-29Glenn1Rightprologue is to epilogue as preface is to postface
1542008-08-162008-08-16Glenn1Right_this_ *will* "format":http://www.google.com !bang! kinda
1552008-08-162008-08-23Glenn2RightMatt will be happy he will no longer be able to be instantly Rick rolled
1562008-08-182008-08-18jarpy1RightThe rake task to send deadlines will work.
1572008-08-182008-08-18jarpy1WrongDeadline emails will fail from cron due to sparse environment variables.
1582008-08-222008-08-22Matt1WrongI will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes
1592008-08-232009-02-23Andy2RightBillabong shares will climb from $11.30 to over $13.50 within 6 months
1612008-08-252029-05-16Gerrit4RightApophis will not hit earth
1622008-08-262010-02-26Lina2WrongSkinny jeans will last for no more than 18 months
1632008-08-262008-08-27Miyo1Rightmoko will behave partcularly well tonight
1642008-08-262009-08-26Miyo2Wrongdave & michelle will be pregnant with in one year of being married.
1652008-08-262008-08-26Adam1RightCoffee machine drain hole is 9mm wide
1662008-08-262008-10-16Frank1Withdrawn14721148 = scc node or infective node
1672008-08-262008-10-16Frank1Wrong14721148 = scc node or infective node
1682008-08-262008-10-16Frank1Wrong14721148 = TB
1692008-08-272010-08-27Miyo3RightJohn Farnham will have another come back tour in Australia within 2 years.
1702008-08-282008-10-16Frank1Right13333001 = chordoma or chondrosarcom
1712008-08-312008-08-31Lina1RightI will get an email telling me this prediction can be judged
1722008-09-012008-03-09Lina1RightMatt will get me on to redmine today.
1732008-09-042008-09-04Glenn1RightThere will be no traffic mishaps on the journey home
1752008-09-042008-09-04Glenn1RightThere will be no traffic mishaps on the Westgate between 9:30 and 10am tomorrow morning
1762008-09-042008-09-04Glenn1RightThis will redirect me back to recent instead of the old table view
1772008-09-042008-09-05Adam2RightThe circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line
1782008-09-042008-09-04Adam1RightAfter spending an hour on the phone to the UK I will be able to access my account
1792008-09-052008-09-06Adam1RightTomorrow morning for this prediction will be in UTC
1802008-09-052008-09-05Adam1Righttomorrow morning for this prediction will be in EST (AU)
1812008-09-052008-09-05Glenn1WrongSaying no now, and yes later to an email will work
1822008-09-052008-09-19Glenn4RightAnonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours
1832008-09-052008-09-19Glenn5RightAnonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours
1842008-09-052008-09-05Adam1WrongI won't be able to double post this prediction
1862008-09-052008-09-05Adam1RightI won't be able to dupe this time
1872008-09-062008-09-06Glenn1RightUnchecked won't want to send me an email
1882008-09-062008-09-06Glenn1RightUnchecked response won't want to send me an email
1892008-09-062008-09-06Glenn1RightThis prediction will post
1902008-09-082008-09-08Glenn1WrongI will be able to reproduce the nillify blank bug
1912008-09-082008-09-08Glenn1RightThis will email me within 10 minutes
1922008-09-082008-09-08Glenn1RightEmailing me will /not/ reproduce the nillify blank bug
1932008-09-082009-12-31Glenn1WrongDespite Federal takeover, ‘Fannie Mae’ and ‘Freddie Mac' will become insolvent, and ultimately bankrupt
1942008-09-092008-09-10Glenn1RightThe world will not end when the first LHC beam is injected on 10th September
1952008-09-092009-12-28Glenn13RightThe world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams
1962008-09-092008-09-09Glenn1RightThis will not email me if i say yes then say no
1972008-09-092008-09-09Matt1RightAdam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu
1982008-09-122008-10-16Frank1Withdrawnorbital mass = malignant non lymphoma
1992008-09-162008-09-16Adam1RightGlenn's fixes will have worked
2002008-09-162008-09-16Glenn1RightI won't have to read the manual to set up the monitor
2012008-09-162009-11-28Glenn1WrongThere will not be a 2009 season of 'Make Me a Supermodel'
2022008-09-162008-09-17Glenn1RightAdam, Gerrit and Matt didn't know that you can remove a processor from the Mac Pro and save over $700
2032008-09-162010-09-16Glenn1RightNext time I get breath tested, I'm going to ask to see my reading. The police person won't like it.
2042008-09-162008-10-16Glenn1RightWithout participating in a clinical trial, there is no legally available 'fire-and-forget' male contraceptive (pill, patch, injection etc.)
2052008-09-162008-09-17Glenn1RightIngDirect will be back up by tomorrow
2062008-09-172008-09-17Glenn1WrongWagerable is a word
2072008-09-172008-09-17Adam1Withdrawnthis prediction will be worthless
2082008-09-172008-09-17Glenn1Rightour changes worked
2092008-09-182009-03-18AndyAlterEgo2WrongBuying index funds today (S&P at 4552) would be a good investment
2102008-09-182008-09-18Glenn1WrongThis deploy will work
2112008-09-182008-09-18Glenn1RightPublished predictions will be published
2162008-09-182008-09-18Glenn1RightUser publish default settings will work
2242008-09-222008-09-22Glenn1WrongThe lyrics to electric feel are "spin me like an electric drill" not "shock me like an electric eel"
2252008-09-222008-09-22Glenn1Wrong"less words" can be considered correct grammar
2262008-09-222008-09-22Adam2Rightnotification of comments and wagers will inform me
2272008-09-222013-04-01Adam10RightThe NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative
2282008-09-232008-09-26Frank1WrongNat will be paged after midnight
2292008-09-242009-11-09Glenn3RightExtremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions - even given they now have until our Autumn next year
2302008-09-242008-09-26Glenn1Right"Notify me when someone responds" will be working again by the end of this week
2312008-09-242108-09-24Glenn2Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive
2342008-09-262008-09-26Adam2Rightrails partial name scheme for namespaced models will be views/namespace/classname/_classname
2352008-09-302009-09-16Miyo1RightBlackburn football club seniors will finish in the final 5 in EFL 2009
2362008-09-302009-03-16Miyo1RightCrawf will have a baby boy
2392008-10-022008-10-02Frank1WrongIt will not demonstrate a lot of enhancement
2402008-10-022008-11-16Frank1Wrongbugger... 11999570 = meningioma
2412008-10-062011-04-06Andy3WrongQuiksilver shares will double inside 30 months
2422008-10-062008-10-06Glenn1RightI pushed
2432008-10-072008-10-08tester1RightI am tester, hear me roar
2462008-10-092008-10-10Andy1RightQuiksilver shares are better value at $3.62 than they were at $5.08
2472008-10-102009-04-10Andy1Wrong$3.19 will have been a good buying price for Quiksilver.
2482008-10-232008-10-23Glenn2Rightremoving prototype.js will make preview work on dentalcorp
2492008-10-232008-10-24Glenn2RightRemoving GA, readding Prototype. Preview will work.
2552008-10-292008-11-16Frank1Wrong14237090 (same as the one before with wrong number) atypical meningioma
2562008-11-042008-11-04Andy1RightMiyo will make a prediction within 5 minutes
2572008-11-042008-12-01Andy1RightThe ASX will drop below 4200 again in November this year
2582008-11-042008-11-06Miyo1WrongThe ASX will end Thursday above 4,300.
2592008-11-042009-08-04Andy1WrongObama will lose, and the USA will have emigration explode to their highest ever rates
2602008-11-052008-11-06Adam2WrongImplement conditional get/caching of processed feed in pod shifter by 12pm thursday
2722008-11-102008-11-09Matt2RightCharlotte will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip).
2732008-11-122008-11-12Adam2Rightthe aws-s3 refactor of podshifter will successfully upload the converted mp3 to s3
2762008-11-192009-06-19Andy1WrongWestpac economist says the ASX will hit 3200 before turning around
2772008-11-252008-12-02Matt1WrongOur podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode
2782008-12-022009-02-01Matt1WrongRadiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009
2792008-12-022009-01-15Matt1WrongRadiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009
2802008-12-042008-12-04Matt1RightOur unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway
2922009-02-182009-03-18th1RightElectrodrive will buy a label printer
2932009-02-192009-03-01Adam1Wrongmy visa will arive
2942009-02-192009-04-19Adam2RightI will be in england before podshifter gets restyled.
2952009-02-192009-02-26Andy1RightThe test is wrong: I will still be lactose intolerant
2962009-03-202009-03-20Wes2RightThe url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today
2972009-03-202009-04-17thomas1RightNorth Carolina will win the NCCA championship.
2982009-04-242009-12-31Andy1WrongVolcom will dip below $10 again before the end of 2009
2992009-04-242009-06-07Philip2RightRoger Federer will win the French Open.
3002009-04-282009-04-29dariusp6861RightDeploy lesswrong will ensure new page always shows in new sort order and prevent anyone with an old rising sort order preference from not being able to change their preference and always seeing nothing
3012009-04-292009-04-30jimmyh1Withdrawni will eat tomorrow
3022009-04-302009-05-18marquisdetrade1WithdrawnS&P will not go above 900 before May 18
3032009-04-302009-06-30marquisdetrade1WrongThere will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%.
3042009-05-012009-12-31Pablo Stafforini4RightI will not become a theist before the end of 2009.
3052009-05-052009-05-05scott.arbeitman1Withdrawnanything
3062009-05-052009-05-05Matt1RightThe result of this coin flip will be heads
3142009-05-122009-05-13Lina2Wrongprediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today
3152009-05-122009-05-13Lina2Rightglenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions
3162009-05-122009-05-12Glenn1Rightthese two machines are the same deployment
3172009-05-132009-05-13Glenn1Withdrawn▀█▀ █▬█ █ ▄▄█▀▀
3182009-05-132009-05-13Glenn1Rightthis will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au
3192009-05-132009-11-15Miyo3WrongAndy and Miyo will have a baby boy
3202009-05-142010-01-01Lina1RightAustralia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate.
3212009-05-152009-11-16Andy2RightIt will be a girl.
3222009-05-152009-05-15Wes1RightAn email will be sent to me
3232009-05-152009-08-16Lina2Right@kevinrose and @tferriss will make a regular thing of Random
3242009-05-172009-06-17EvF1WrongFor Australia the sex ratio at birth is 1.05 male(s)/female. Stats overall are probably skewed by incidence of deliberate female foetus abortions. Therefore I am 50% sure it will be a boy
3252009-05-172009-05-18TwitterPredicts2WrongPredicting a Celtics victory tonight
3262009-05-182009-05-21TwitterPredicts1WrongAdam Lambert will win American Idol
3272009-05-192009-05-21TwitterPredicts1WrongKris Allen will not win American Idol
3282009-05-192009-05-22scott.arbeitman2RightGraph axes will have labels by this Friday
3292009-05-192009-05-20TwitterPredicts1RightThe LA Lakers will beat the Denver Nuggets tonight
3302009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightThe safety car will make an appearance at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix
3312009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightButton will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix
3322009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightA Brawn car will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix
3332009-05-232009-05-24TwitterPredicts1RightThe Lakers will have the edge at tonight's playoff
3362009-05-252009-05-26Andy1RightThe sun will rise
3372009-05-262009-05-26Bébhinn1WrongLakers will take down the Nuggets again tonight.
3382009-05-262009-05-27TwitterPredicts1WrongCalifornia's Supreme Court will overturn the ban on gay marriage
3392009-05-262009-08-14TwitterPredicts1RightThe senate will confirm, Sotomayor, Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court
3402009-05-272009-05-27TwitterPredicts1WrongCleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic tonight - Cavs will win
3412009-05-282011-05-27Lina5WrongGoogle will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years.
3422009-05-282010-01-06Lina1RightGoogle wave will be a new always open tab in my browser.
3432009-05-302009-09-15vishnushashank3RightButton will be the world champion
3442009-05-312009-06-07TwitterPredicts1WrongSerena Williams will win the 2009 French Open
3452009-05-312010-05-31TwitterPredicts4WrongThe Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer
3462009-05-312014-05-31crlosg29RightApple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years.
3472009-06-012010-06-01TwitterPredicts5WrongGoogle Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate
3482009-06-012009-12-31TwitterPredicts8RightThe recession will end this year
3492009-06-012011-06-01TwitterPredicts3WrongBuffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen
3502009-06-012009-08-01Andy1RightBillabong shares will increase by more that 10% within the next 2 months
3512009-06-022009-06-02CRobert2RightI will make it home before 7pm tonight
3522009-06-022009-05-31CRobert3WrongWe will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu.
3532009-06-032010-12-16joloughlin3WrongKelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010
3542009-06-042009-06-08Wes1RightThird generation iPhone will be announced at WWDC
3552009-06-042009-06-08Wes1RightThe release date for Snow Leopard will be announced at WWDC.
3562009-06-042009-08-28Wes1RightSnow Leopard will not feature a redone UI
3572009-06-042009-06-06CRobert1RightThat the timing function on prediction book won't be fixed to take account of "local" time in the next 2 days
3612009-06-102010-01-01Lina2WrongKevin Rose will have a date with Jennifer Aniston by the end of the year.
3642009-06-142009-06-21TwitterPredicts1RightEngland will reach the 2009 World Twenty20 semi-finals.
3652009-06-142009-06-15TwitterPredicts1WrongMagic will win, pushing the Lakers to game 6 tonight.
3662009-06-152009-06-15CRNewsReports2WrongQ4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back then gold and silver will move up greatly!
3672009-06-172020-01-01CRNewsReports©2WrongNorth Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency.
3682009-06-172009-12-15CRNewsReports©2WrongQ4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall.
3692009-06-222009-07-06TwitterPredicts1RightFederer will win Wimbledon 2009
3702009-06-222009-09-22TwitterPredicts2WrongWorld-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week).
3712009-06-222009-07-06TwitterPredicts2WrongWimbledon 2009 Men's Final: Federer V Murray
3722009-06-232009-12-23TwitterPredicts2RightJon & Kate Plus 8 - The show will go on, in some capacity
3732009-06-232010-06-23TwitterPredicts2WrongJon & Kate Plus 8 - Jon & Kate will get back together within a year
3742009-06-232010-06-23Faiste1RightL'OM sera-t-il champion de France en 2010 ?
3752009-06-242014-06-24scott.arbeitman6WrongConfig (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word
3772009-07-042009-07-05TwitterPredicts1WrongVenus Williams will make it three-in-a-row at the Wimbledon 2009 Women's Final
3782009-07-042012-02-01TwitterPredicts5WrongSarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign
3792009-07-052009-07-27TwitterPredicts1RightLance Armstrong will finish the Tour de France in the Top 5.
3802009-07-052009-07-27TwitterPredicts1WrongFabian Cancellara will finish the 2009 Tour de France in the Top 3
3812009-07-052009-07-05TwitterPredicts1RightSt. Kilda will beat Geelong today by fewer than 10 points.
3822009-07-302009-08-30TwitterPredicts1WrongMichael Schumacher will finish in the points at Valencia 2009
3832009-07-302009-08-23TwitterPredicts1WrongMichael Schumacher will beat Raikkonen at Valencia 2009
3842009-07-302009-11-01TwitterPredicts1WrongMichael Schumacher will finish the 2009 season in the Top 10
3852009-08-142009-08-21Frank1RightWill finish rewriting all Amirsys articles by now
3862009-08-312009-09-04captainpete1WithdrawnMatt will have banished his cold
3872009-08-312009-09-07captainpete5Wrongwe'll be experimenting with meat-spaced project management system
3882009-08-312009-09-07captainpete5Rightwe'll have finished refactoring variants into products
3892009-08-312009-09-07Wes4WrongRound 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed
3902009-08-312009-09-06Glenn5WrongI will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds
3912009-08-312009-09-07Tom1WrongMatt will report (@ the standup) that he has done 'admini' at least 3 times this week.
3922009-08-312009-09-06Matt1WrongAt least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday
3932009-08-312009-09-06Matt1WrongI will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand
3942009-09-072009-12-01Tom7WrongKando will be live first of december
3972009-09-072009-09-11Glenn7RightI will work Friday
3982009-09-072009-09-13Matt4WrongI will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand
3992009-09-072009-09-13Matt5WrongAt least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday
4002009-09-072009-09-11jon3RightI will make two more predictions before the weeks end.
4012009-09-072009-09-14captainpete6Wrongwe'll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach)
4022009-09-072009-09-14Wes4RightRound 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev.
4032009-09-082009-09-09jon2WrongI will have AWS servers built and ready for testing.
4042009-09-082009-09-12Matt1WrongI'll send Katrina some designs I'm happy with this week.
4052009-09-092009-09-23tansel5RightI will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing
4062009-09-142009-09-14Tom2RightEditing an order in plandeliver will be live at the end of today
4072009-09-142009-09-21Tom7WrongWe will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week
4082009-09-142009-09-21captainpete5RightI will have written and submitted my Trike profile
4092009-09-142009-09-14jon3RightI will have tests running against aws by the end of today.
4102009-09-142009-09-20Glenn2RightI will have adapted to subconsiously use caps lock instead of backspace (or ctrl-h) by this time next week
4112009-09-142009-09-24Wes6WrongRadiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep)
4122009-09-152009-09-21Matt3RightMy PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week.
4132009-09-152009-09-15Glenn1RightI have already made predictions in predictionbook
4142009-09-152009-09-21Glenn1RightPadding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened
4152009-09-212009-09-26Tom3WrongI will be on Oktoberfest saturday
4162009-09-212009-09-21Tom3RightRadiopaedia wont go live tday
4172009-09-212009-09-27Matt3WrongOB will go live on AWS this week
4182009-09-212009-09-27Matt3WrongLW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week
4192009-09-212009-09-24captainpete3Wrongwe will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday
4202009-09-222009-11-01Frank3WrongVolume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month
4212009-09-252010-11-16Frank4RightRadiopaedia's visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010
4222009-09-252011-01-16Frank2WrongI will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010
4232009-09-282009-10-04Glenn1RightI will spend less than 80% of my time at work being purely meta or purely meta-meta (or any purely meta^n)
4242009-09-282009-09-30Matt1RightG's analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday
4252009-09-282009-10-04Matt1WrongLW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week
4262009-09-282009-10-02Wes3RightRadiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week
4272009-09-282009-09-30captainpete1RightPete will have deployed his changes to PlanDeliver by the end of Tuesday
4302009-10-052009-10-16jon1WrongI will have puppet configured and in use by the end of next week.
4312009-10-132009-10-17tansel2WrongI will finish the Kudda video upload task by Thursday
4412009-10-142009-10-15uninverted9RightThe sun will rise tomorrow morning
4542009-10-142009-12-31InTrade6RightA federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009
4552009-10-142009-12-31InTrade3RightAn announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan
4562009-10-142011-10-31Jack17WrongThere will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011.
4572009-10-142010-06-30InTrade9RightNeither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010
4582009-10-142009-12-01InTrade1WithdrawnDonny Osmond and partner will not win Dancing with the Stars
4592009-10-142009-11-03mjgeddes1Wrong'Alcopop' to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing)
4602009-10-142012-09-16InTrade25RightSarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012
4612009-10-142009-12-31InTrade1RightMark Sanford will not depart as Governor of South Carolina before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009
4622009-10-142009-12-31InTrade4WrongDemocratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race
4632009-10-142014-01-01mjgeddes4WrongBayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014
4642009-10-142010-10-01Jack2RightLebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season.
4652009-10-142011-01-01max24WrongThe US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010.
4662009-10-142012-01-01max9WrongCivil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011.
4672009-10-142009-11-15Jack4RightFOX will not pick up the show "Dollhouse" for a third season.
4682009-10-142009-10-14Jack1RightI will fall asleep before 4 am.
4702009-10-142010-10-14bogdanb14RightThe sun will not become a nova during this year.
4712009-10-142010-10-14bogdanb26RightGeneral consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year.
4722009-10-142019-10-14bogdanb16RightGeneric AI won't happen in the next 10 years.
4732009-10-142040-01-01rwallace41A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.
4742009-10-142010-07-01Drahflow7RightGermany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010.
4882009-10-142011-01-01JamesMiller5WrongBy January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran.
4912009-10-142009-12-31InTrade1RightDemocratic Party Candidate will not win Virginia gubernatorial election
4922009-10-142009-12-31InTrade1RightUS GDP will not decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 (inclusive)
4932009-10-142009-12-31InTrade3RightDow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009
4942009-10-142009-12-31InTrade2RightDow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000
4952009-10-142009-12-31InTrade2RightDow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500
4962009-10-142009-12-31InTrade4WrongUS Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00%
4972009-10-142019-07-01Arenamontanus6WrongThe first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019.
4982009-10-142019-12-31Arenamontanus8RightThere will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019.
4992009-10-142012-12-31Arenamontanus6RightThere will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012.
5002009-10-142010-10-14Arenamontanus9WrongThere will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010.
5012009-10-142010-10-14Arenamontanus3WrongThere will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010.
5022009-10-142009-11-14Arenamontanus4WrongThere will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009.
5032009-10-142009-10-14Matt2WrongGlenn will arrive at Trike before 10am (GMT+10) today.
5042009-10-142010-01-01pre3WrongLily Allen will return to twitter before the year end
5052009-10-142009-10-28kess3r7WrongThis site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks.
5062009-10-142009-10-17arthurb1WrongCME's website will confirm that CME rule for electronic trading of ED futures gives indeed priority to official market makers over other users at a given price level.
5152009-10-152009-10-29jes51993WrongI'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks
5162009-10-152009-10-17jes51991RightI'll get a full night sleep at least once before the weekend.
5202009-10-152010-10-15jes51995WrongThe creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget.
5212009-10-152013-01-01jes519923WrongThe world will end in 2012
5262009-10-152009-12-15ChristianKl3WrongPredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months.
5272009-10-152012-12-31ChristianKl9WrongThere will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US.
5422009-10-152009-10-19im1WrongI will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend.
5472009-10-152009-10-16LauraABJ2RightI will make my flight
5482009-10-152019-10-15kess3r11WrongIran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years.
5492009-10-162010-01-01InTrade4WrongOne or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year.
5502009-10-162011-01-01InTrade6WrongRoman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year.
5512009-10-162010-07-01InTrade10RightOsama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010.
5522009-10-162010-07-01InTrade5RightThe President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010.
5552009-10-162018-01-01JamesMiller6RightOne year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets.
5562009-10-162017-01-01JamesMiller3WrongOne year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks.
5572009-10-162009-10-16Drahflow1RightI'll join at least one collegue of mine for lunch today.
5782009-10-172012-01-01anonym10WrongThere will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012.
5812009-10-172009-11-17anonym1RightI will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009.
5822009-10-172009-12-17anonym1WithdrawnI will make at least 5 predictions each week of the 2nd month since I started using Prediction Book
5832009-10-172019-01-01anonym3I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45.
5882009-10-172009-10-17Matt1RightWhen I turn on my brother's just upgraded macbook, it'll work.
5892009-10-172060-12-31ChristianKl14In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.
5902009-10-172070-12-31ChristianKl25In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.
5952009-10-172020-01-01komponisto33RightNo military draft in the United States before 2020.
6012009-10-173009-10-17TheScholar19Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.
6042009-10-172010-01-04Philo1WrongChicago Bears will make playoffs.
6052009-10-172009-11-01anonym5RightPrediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load.
6062009-10-172010-01-01anonym2WrongA significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not.
6072009-10-172009-11-01anonym2WrongBy Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm
6082009-10-172009-10-18MBlume1RightOrchard Supply and Hardware will have a fire extinguisher which they can sell us.
6092009-10-182009-10-19Larks1WrongI will finish my problem sheets on Calculous of One Variable, do the pre-reading for Logic and Reasoning and Proofs, and at least one of the non-compulsary pure questions, by the end of today.
6102009-10-182009-10-23Larks1WrongI will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting
6112009-10-182010-07-16Larks1RightI will pass my Mods
6592009-10-192009-10-19Tobias_M3RightThe mind body problem will not be solved.
6632009-10-192025-01-12Jennifer14Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.
6642009-10-192010-07-02freyley3WrongThere will be a public option in the upcoming health reform
6652009-10-192015-10-19freyley2RightIf the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015.
6662009-10-192014-10-19freyley3WithdrawnIf the Public Option passes, it will cost at least $400/month for the 25-35 bracket to join it by a year after it opens.
6672009-10-192012-01-20jshiga2WithdrawnA gun will discharge during a town hall meeting sometime during Obama's first term.
6712009-10-202009-10-24freyley1WrongThe kittens will still have giardia.
6722009-10-202009-10-22freyley1WrongMartin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found.
6732009-10-202009-10-22freyley1WrongMartin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found.
6802009-10-202010-10-02jes51996WrongWe will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October.
6852009-10-213009-10-21TheScholar12Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.
7032009-10-262009-10-30Wes2RightThe Radiopaedia content cleanup will be finished by the end of the week
7102009-10-282009-11-08refragable1WrongI will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009.
7112009-10-282010-01-01refragable2Wrongmontgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches.
7422009-11-022009-11-07Matt2WrongBell/Carry sites will be live by Friday.
7432009-11-022009-12-07Frank1Rightcombined iphone app sales for November > 250
7662009-11-132010-11-13robo45h2RightIran's current regime will continue its nuclear program -- or be overthrown -- rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia).
7672009-11-142010-05-01philology1WrongI will attend Reed College
7682009-11-142010-05-01olimay1WrongBy 2010-05-01, Oliver will have paid rent for a dwelling place not owned by an immediate family member, grandparent, or first cousin for a period beginning after 2009-11-14, duration longer than 28 days.
7692009-11-142010-02-01olimay2WrongBy 2010-02-01 Oliver will have paid the minimum monthly amount requested as indicated on the Student Loan Corporation statements for 2010-Jan using his own, unborrowed funds.
7762009-11-142011-01-01olimay2RightAll my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011.
7772009-11-142010-01-01olimay2WrongI'll make at least $500 from now until the rest of the year.
7782009-11-142010-01-01olimay1RightI won't directly pay any doctor, doctor's office, or hospital any amount of money for medical services rendered to me for the rest of this year.
7792009-11-142009-12-01olimay1WrongI'll see Eric Li in person on two separate days before the end of November.
7802009-11-142009-12-06olimay2WrongI'll publish at least 15 (different) posts on False Symmetry before my birthday.
7812009-11-142009-11-14olimay1WrongI'll make it on time (within 7 minutes of 15:00 UTC, by Sprint Mobile network time) to the OB/LW NYC meetup on 2009-11-14.
7822009-11-142009-11-21olimay1WrongClaire and I will go to the Met Museum of Art sometime on 2009-11-20.
7832009-11-142009-11-28olimay1WrongI will get at least one paid freelance design or programming job in the next two weeks.
7842009-11-142009-12-06olimay2WrongI will write and publish one complete short story on the internet (public internet) before my birthday.
7852009-11-142009-11-21olimay1WrongI will go to bed (and fall asleep) before 5AM every day next week, which I'll say starts Sunday.
7862009-11-142012-03-01olimay2WithdrawnTwitter will report profits for every quarter in 2011.
7872009-11-142009-11-14olimay4WrongI'll fall asleep before 5AM today.
7882009-11-142009-12-06olimay3WrongI will weigh less than 170 lbs on my birthday and in my birthday suit.
7892009-11-142010-01-01olimay1RightI will order food from a restaurant with the word "Chinese" somewhere on its printed menu no fewer than 3 times before the end of this year.
7902009-11-142009-11-14olimay1WrongI will be in New York City by noon today.
7932009-11-142009-11-15olimay1WrongPaddy will give me or have had prepared a check payable to me by the end of today.
7942009-11-142010-01-01popojala4RightI won't get the swine flu during this year.
7952009-11-142009-11-15popojala1WrongMy mother or father will call me today.
8262009-11-162009-11-27ledflyd1WrongDuring the next two weeks, at least half of my experimental data will be unusable for our presentation on Dec. 2, 2009.
8272009-11-162009-11-26ledflyd2RightI will eat Thanksgiving dinner at my Aunt's house AND will not ingest any Turkey.
8282009-11-162009-11-25ledflyd1WrongThere will be no heat in my lab for at least half the days over the next week and a half
8292009-11-162010-02-08ledflyd2WithdrawnI will be fired from or quit my job on or before Feb 8th, 2010
8302009-11-162009-12-31ledflyd1RightI will drink at least 40 different beers before the end of the year
8682009-11-182159-11-18Citizen55316Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.
8692009-11-182010-02-07hoodoo22Rightsaints win Superbowl
8812009-11-222009-11-28Tom4RightOur TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week
8822009-11-222009-11-27jon4WrongI will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week.
8832009-11-232009-11-23brownguy221RightI will finish planning lessons before I go to bed
8872009-11-252009-12-03blorh1RightIntegration with a certain financial package will cause pain on K by the end of next week
8882009-11-252010-03-15Pavitra6WrongThe "LessWrong Singularity article" will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/
8892009-11-302009-11-30dgoodlad2WrongThe DSL modem will arrive today
8902009-11-302009-12-05dgoodlad2WrongI will go to the gym every day this week (Mon-Fri)
8912009-11-302009-12-30captainpete4WrongWe'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution.
8942009-11-302009-12-06Tom2Righti will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend
9122009-12-062009-12-11Tom1WrongTansel will be @ the doctor at least once this week
9132009-12-062009-12-12dgoodlad1WrongThe weather will get hot and sunny again for the weekend (30+ degrees)
9142009-12-082019-12-08scott.arbeitman19WrongUnable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter.
9172009-12-122009-12-12olimay1WrongI will make it to the Saturday 2009 Dec 12th OBLW meetup.
9182009-12-132009-12-18dgoodlad2WrongWe will have K open to the 7 friendly dentists by the end of the week
9192009-12-132009-12-31Tom2RightThere will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :(
9202009-12-132009-12-19Tom1Wrong50% of Trike staff will be drunk @ the christmas party...
9212009-12-162009-12-17Tom1WrongI will need 6 hours to implement the K feature 1895261
9222009-12-212009-12-23Wes2RightPlan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break
9232009-12-222010-01-01Matt2WrongSomeone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day.
9242009-12-262010-07-01Ben Doherty2WrongI will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st
9252009-12-272009-12-28Ben Doherty1RightMy visitors will not arrive before 12pm
9352009-12-302009-12-30Ben Doherty1Wrongmore than 4 chavs will get on my bus before I get off
9392010-01-052010-06-05PotatoDumplings1WrongI get into Harvey Mudd
9402010-01-052010-06-05PotatoDumplings1WrongI get into CalTech.
9412010-01-052010-06-05PotatoDumplings2WrongI get into MIT
9752010-01-152010-01-22KatjaGrace1WrongI will post a blog post on anthropics within one week
9872010-01-210139-01-01senile2WrongI like smoked gouda
9882010-01-252010-03-29Frank2Rightthe bub will be a boy
9892010-01-262010-04-06Jack1RightThe University of Kentucky Men's basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship.
10222010-02-092010-01-03rosy1WrongMelbourne Victory to win A-Legue season 2009-2010
10232010-02-092010-06-16taticorr1WrongBrazil will win the world cup 2010
10262010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling2WrongI will predict that Gossip Girl will not last 2 more seasons on T.V
10272010-02-092010-02-01Holly2WrongKhloe Kardashian is pregnant
10282010-02-092013-01-01kimmjaynedowling6RightThe world will not end in 2012
10292010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling1WrongA new social networking site will overtake Facebook as the most used website by October 2010
10302010-02-092010-12-16Holly2WrongNicole Richie for a third baby in 2010
10312010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling1RightAvatar will stay in the top 10 Box Office till March 2010
10322010-02-092010-02-01kimmjaynedowling1WrongKaty Perry and Russel Brand will have a baby boy in October 2010
10332010-02-102010-12-31sharidanbowman3RightTiger Woods and Elin Nordegren will seperate within the year
10342010-02-102010-06-16Holly1RightPosh spice, Victoria Beckham fashion label will hit an all time low in 2010
10352010-02-102012-02-10kimmjaynedowling3WrongMiley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana
10362010-02-102012-12-30sharidanbowman6WrongBill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3
10372010-02-102010-02-01rosy2WrongPrediction Book will be the next big thing to hit!!!!!!!!!
10412010-02-102010-02-01kimmjaynedowling3WrongRight after Avatar leaves cinemas, another movie with the title Avatar in it will be released
10422010-02-102010-03-07mavmetropolis1RightJeff Bridges will win an Oscar for Best Actor in 2010
10432010-02-102010-02-10dani2Rightpretty sure that dani is the greatest.
10442010-02-102010-02-10YOUNGMULLAH1Righta tree will fall on my face
10452010-02-102010-02-10jimbob71WrongCollingwood will make the grand final this year
10462010-02-102010-02-01kieran901WrongLe Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012
10472010-02-102010-02-22harmonix2WrongAustralia will beat West Indies 5-0 in the current one day series
10482010-02-102010-02-17al3xal3x1Rightpokemon
10492010-02-102010-07-15akavc151WrongDwight Howard and Vince carter will lead Orlando Magic back to the NBA finals
10502010-02-102010-02-01al3xal3x1Wrongpenor
10512010-02-102010-02-17al3xal3x1Withdrawnhi (:
10522010-02-102010-12-31sammi1Righttupac is still alive
10532010-02-102010-02-10YOUNGMULLAH1Rightmy mum will walk in on me
10542010-02-102010-06-16widz1WrongLeBron will win MVP
10552010-02-102010-02-17al3xal3x1Withdrawnchris lee is chinese
10562010-02-102010-02-01kieran901WrongRichmond Tigers will win the next 3 premierships in a row
10572010-02-102010-02-01deaz3RightSpain will win the world cup 2010
10582010-02-102010-09-27harmonix1Wrong2010 Grand Final will be Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs
10592010-02-102010-03-07wednesday1WrongCarey Mulligan will win Best Actress
10622010-02-102010-02-01dani1Rightjimmy jam will come out of the closet.
10652010-02-102010-02-18makemulababy1WrongTFU will be roooccckkkinnn on the W/E BBBBBLLAAAAHHHHHHHHHH
10662010-02-102010-02-10al3xal3x1RightThe world won't end in 2012
10672010-02-102010-02-10Monec1WrongMarketing will become one of the most popular course to study
10682010-02-102010-02-10deaz1WrongSushi Monger this lunch
10712010-02-102010-02-20reymartfc2Rightthere will be more disruptions on myki system
10722010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob1Rightchuck norris will happen
10732010-02-102010-02-11melmel2WrongAmerican president obama will screw up politically
10742010-02-102010-09-16Olyscott1WrongSt Kilda will win the premiership in 2010
10752010-02-102010-06-16nicolas3RightThe Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season
10762010-02-102013-02-10melmel4WrongMicheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac
10772010-02-102010-02-10mikeykaka2Wrongi will be a millionaire
10782010-02-102010-02-17melmel3RightAsian gangs in Melbourne will not cause trouble this weekend
10792010-02-102012-12-31Phil1RightThe world won't end in 2012, unless Chuck Norris says so
10802010-02-102010-07-16christian2RightAustralia vs Greece 2010 World Cup Final
10812010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob2RightMatthew Stokes will not learn from his mistake
10822010-02-102010-02-11melmel1Wrongi will have sex tonight
10832010-02-102010-02-10reymartfc2Rightjapanese people will be replaced by their own robots
10842010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob2WrongAustralia will win 5-0 against west indies
10852010-02-102011-01-01kassey2WrongAustralia will change drinking age to 21
10862010-02-102010-02-10imNOTafob1WithdrawnI WILL BE WATCHING MELMEL HAVE SEX TONIGHT
10872010-02-102010-02-11melmel2Wrongis going to have sex with herself cos of phil
10882010-02-102010-02-10Olyscott1RightMelmel will get banned from prediction book by the end of the class
10892010-02-102010-02-10reymartfc1Wrongwhaling aint gonna be prohibited because japanese people will build a large aquarium for them whales to breed
10902010-02-102010-02-10vivaladam3Rightmen will continue to forget about valentine's day
10952010-02-142010-01-01magic1Wrong35 miles around the coast of Peterhead in Scotland, the sea bed will collapse causing a massive tidal wave which will kill millions of people. It will affect the United Kingdom hugely as well as other countries. The waters will travel down as far as Nor
10962010-02-152010-03-15Jack3WrongPrediction book will get some desperately needed moderation.
10972010-02-152012-12-16skinnyasianbitch1WithdrawnThe World will NOT end in 2012
10982010-02-152010-07-07skinnyasianbitch2WrongAustralia Vs Italy in World Cup Final
10992010-02-162010-02-16jay_pitman1Rightandrew stellas will not hit the wall from one side of the room with a paper aeroplane on the full
11442010-02-232010-03-12thechadisgreat1RightLot of Australian cricket players will decide to play in this season's Indian Premier League (IPL)
11452010-02-232011-04-16thechadisgreat2WrongThe Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM
11462010-02-232010-07-29maash2WrongThe Movie Dear John will be this years The Notebook
11472010-02-232010-09-16MrHen2RightFringe will be renewed for a third season
11482010-02-232010-07-16MrHen1WrongFlashFoward will be renewed for a second season
11652010-02-282010-03-01cointelligence1RightStefan Pernar will not appear out of his own navel
11662010-02-282010-03-08tiffany1Wrong7th of march will be the best day ever
11692010-02-282011-02-01d4033RightIf Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game.
11702010-02-282010-03-07d4031WrongBrad Pitt will come out of the closet.
11712010-02-282012-01-02d4037WrongCannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012
11722010-02-282011-01-05d4031RightThe Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010.
11732010-02-282010-03-14d4032WrongBarack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks
11742010-02-282010-03-14d4031WrongSpencer Tunick will be charged with mass-scale indecent exposure
11752010-03-012010-06-01d4031RightLara Bingle and Michael Clarke will split up in the next three months
11762010-03-012010-03-08cointelligence1RightCointelligence will get bored and quit
11772010-03-012010-03-07cointelligence1RightSky Burial in the WA
11802010-03-032010-03-01DianneD3WrongTwitter will disappear by the end of the year.
11832010-03-082010-03-09ledflyd1RightI will log onto prediction book again tomorrow
11842010-03-082010-03-13mark.p1RightRoxanne Parlour's 3rd Birthday this friday night will be messy.
11852010-03-092010-03-09mark.p1Rightchris lee will leave the class to take a phone call in the next 10 minutes.. again.
11862010-03-092010-03-21guru1RightMelbourne Victory will win the A league championship
11872010-03-092010-03-09ledflyd1Righti will leave work by 1 o'clock to go eat lunch
11882010-03-142010-09-26mktg20101WrongDogs will win the AFL flag this year
11922010-03-152010-09-15GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1RightVelvet will make a comeback
11932010-03-152010-06-21GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide5RightPurple eye shadow is going to be HOT this season!
11962010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor2Right'Hawks' will defeat 'Demons' in Round 1
11972010-03-172010-03-25AFL_Predictor2Wrong'Tigers' will defeat 'Blues' in Round 1
11982010-03-172010-03-25AFL_Predictor1Right'Blues' will defeat 'Tigers' in Round 1
11992010-03-172010-03-26AFL_Predictor3Right'Cats' will defeat 'Bombers' in Round 1
12002010-03-172010-03-26AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Bombers' will defeat 'Cats' in Round 1
12012010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Swans' will defeat 'Saints' in Round 1
12022010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Right'Saints' will defeat 'Swans' in Round 1
12032010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Right'Lions' will defeat 'Eagles' in Round 1
12042010-03-172010-03-27AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Eagles' will defeat 'Lions' in Round 1
12052010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Power' will defeat 'Kangaroos' in Round 1
12062010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Right'Kangaroos' will defeat 'Power' in Round 1
12072010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Wrong'Bulldogs' will defeat 'Magpies' in Round 1
12082010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor2Right'Magpies' will defeat 'Bulldogs' in Round 1
12092010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor1Right'Dockers' will defeat 'Crows' in Round 1
12102010-03-172010-03-28AFL_Predictor2Wrong'Crows' will defeat 'Dockers' in Round 1
12112010-03-172010-03-21mastrinc143Wrongwill bill get the fabled boxo on saturday night?
12122010-03-172010-05-27guru1RightHugo is the chosen one because he is the only one who sees Jacob!
12132010-03-172010-03-17monamur1WrongAaron will become the follower of Jacob and will be the ruler of the island.
12142010-03-172010-03-18kristian2Righttomorrow will be sunny?
12152010-03-172010-05-16thdurp2WrongKevin Rudd will resign in April 2010.
12162010-03-182011-03-18GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide2WrongTavi is actually JT Leroy's newest incarnation.
12172010-03-182010-04-16al3xal3x2WrongGeorge Lucas is my father!
12182010-03-182010-05-16NATASHA2Righti will end up going on a holiday
12212010-03-202010-03-27ally1Righti predict i won't use this site again.
12222010-03-202010-12-31Chris312RightMuse will tour Australia again by the end of the year
12232010-03-202010-05-09EPL_Predictor1RightChelsea will win the English Premier League
12242010-03-202010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongManchester United will win the English Premier league
12252010-03-202010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongArsenal will win the English Premierleague
12262010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongManchester City will make the Champions League
12272010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongLiverpool will make the Champions League
12282010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1RightTottenham will make the Champions League
12292010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor1WrongAston Villa will make the Champions League
12302010-03-212010-05-09EPL_Predictor3RightPortsmouth, Hull and Burnley to be relegated
12312010-03-212010-06-23predicted7WrongThe Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup.
12322010-03-212010-03-22wednesday1RightMy train home will be delayed by more than 3 minutes today.
12332010-03-222011-01-31predicted2RightHealth Care Bill will be passed in the United States
12342010-03-222010-06-18kassey3WrongPaul Manoukian will get facebook.
12352010-03-222010-06-16Olivia2WrongThat one of my best friends will get married in june this year!
12362010-03-222010-05-22GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1RightTommy Ton of Jac & Jil blog will head down under for Rosemount Australian Fashion Week.
12372010-03-222010-05-22GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongBlogger Susie Bubble of Style Bubble is headed to Sydney for fashion week in May.
12382010-03-222015-03-22alicewilson4WrongLady Gaga will dominate the pop music industry for the next 5 years
12392010-03-222010-03-29p12WrongAlonso will win the Australian F1 Grand Prix
12402010-03-232010-09-13tjross2WrongIowa State University will beat University of Iowa in football next season
12412010-03-232010-12-31tjross7RightThere will be another major natural disaster before the years over
12422010-03-232010-03-30mavmetropolis2RightMav will find out what the name of the gorgeous red head is...you know, the one who works at Gloria Jeans in the M:Town. Morning coffee...it's the highlight of my day ;)
12432010-03-232012-11-06tjross17RightBarack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion)
12442010-03-232012-12-31tjross8WrongUSA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012
12452010-03-232020-12-31tjross20United States will invade Australia and take over
12462010-03-232010-08-23GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide3WrongWe'll be seeing a lot of fur vests this winter.
12492010-03-242010-09-16mktg20101Wrongbombers will finish in top 8 this season
12502010-03-242010-12-30Marz2RightThe share price of gold is going to increase by 5% by the end of 2010.
12512010-03-242010-04-27Marz1RightNicole will win Americans next top model, petites version.
12522010-03-242010-04-10EPL_Predictor1RightAston Villa will narrowly lose to Chelsea in the FA cup Semi final
12532010-03-242010-04-11EPL_Predictor1RightPortsmouth will defeat Tottenham in the FA Cup semi-final
12562010-03-252010-05-09EPL_Predictor1RightChelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham will make up the top 4 of the league
12592010-03-282010-07-01melissasajeh1WithdrawnWill Eclipse be as good as Twilight and New Moon? Will Bella choose friendship with werewolf Jacob or vampire Edward?
12602010-03-282010-07-01melissasajeh1WrongEclipse will be as good as Twilight and New Moon and Bella will choose Edward!
12612010-03-292010-04-30melissasajeh4RightIron Man 2 will be the top 10 movie in 2010
12622010-03-292010-07-01melissasajeh1WrongAaron will get back to the island
12652010-03-312010-04-12bubble1Rightthe easter holidays will go super fast!!
12662010-03-312010-04-01urban1Wrongi will fool people tomorrow!!
12672010-03-312010-04-30mela231WrongYES!, THE ALBUM WILL BE A HIT!
12682010-04-012010-04-01saralehman2WrongPamela Anderson willl win Dancing with the stars!
12692010-04-022010-04-02james1WrongThey will never cure cancer in our lifetimes.
12742010-04-052010-05-11Frank1Wrongreach 500 facebook fans by may 10st
12752010-04-092010-04-30melly1WrongIvy will win so you think you can dance 2010
12762010-04-122010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongWinter warmth will be Thigh- High this season
12792010-04-132010-08-13Marz5WrongInterest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months.
12802010-04-182010-04-26Frank1WrongSunday traffic next week with be >2000
12812010-04-182011-07-02Frank5RightNeither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months
12822010-04-182010-04-19Frank1RightColin will not come over tonight
12832010-04-192010-04-02predicted2RightTravel to Europe will be delayed for a week due to Volcanic ash.
12842010-04-192010-05-20akavc152WrongMohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean
12852010-04-192010-10-01chrisknows1WrongBlackburn will win the Eastern Footy League premiership
12862010-04-192010-04-26chrisknows1WrongChannel 9's pathetic tribute to murdered murderer Carl Williams will rate obscenely well.
12872010-04-212010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongBright and tight will light up this winter.
12882010-04-212010-05-08predicted3RightShogun Rua will defeat Lyoto Machida at UFC 113
12892010-04-212011-07-02dusty.brouwer1RightI predict the car that James Bond will drive in the next movie will not be an aston martin.
12902010-04-222010-06-02Frank1RightWill crack 250,000 pageviews in may
13232010-04-262010-05-03Frank1WrongSunday 2nd may will have more than 2000 visitors
13242010-05-012010-05-10mario12WrongIn a few weeks, Dota Allstars 6.67c Ai will be released...
13252010-05-032010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide1WrongPin it
13262010-05-032010-05-16mktg20101RightChelsea win will the cup
13272010-05-042010-06-01GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide2WrongMilitary style big bang this winter
13282010-05-042010-06-12World_Cup_predictor2WrongSouth Africa will lose to Mexico in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup
13292010-05-042010-06-12World_Cup_predictor2WrongFrance will defeat Uruguay
13302010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor1RightArgentina will defeat Nigeria
13312010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor2WrongGreece will Defeat Korea
13322010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor1WrongEngland will defeat USA
13332010-05-042010-06-13World_Cup_predictor1RightSlovenia will defeat Algeria
13342010-05-042010-12-04DianneD3RightJustin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year.
13372010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1RightSlashs new album will flop!
13382010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1RightMuse will come back down under to do another Australian tour before the end of the year
13392010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1WrongGorillaz new album will go platinum
13402010-05-042010-05-04musicpredictor1WrongThe killers front man will debut a solo album
13412010-05-052010-05-05ravneetrox1RightWill Jay ever make it to the candy mountain?
13422010-05-052010-05-10EPL_Predictor1WrongChelsea will drop points against Wigan and fail to win the EPL
13432010-05-052010-05-10EPL_Predictor1WrongManchester United will defeat Stoke and lift the EPL again
13442010-05-062010-12-16ravneetrox1WrongWill Karishma find a boyfriend by the end of this year
13452010-05-062020-05-06ravneetrox10WrongThe Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020
13462010-05-062018-05-06ravneetrox1WrongMaash will be married by the age of 28 with one child
13472010-05-062010-06-16ravneetrox1RightIndia will win the T20 world cup
13482010-05-062030-05-06ravneetrox3WrongBin Laden and USA are working together
13492010-05-092010-06-16World_Cup_predictor1RightChile will defeat Honduras
13502010-05-112015-12-31dakyne5WrongThe spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015.
13512010-05-112010-12-31dakyne5WrongArena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010.
13522010-05-112010-12-31dakyne5RightThe spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010.
13532010-05-112010-12-31dakyne4RightCalifornia will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010.
13542010-05-112010-09-26dusty.brouwer2WrongI predict Collingwood will win the AFL Grand final in 2010.
13552010-05-122010-05-12f21Rightmax brenner will make the best waflees today
13652010-05-302010-06-01Frank1Wrongthe chick from big is not the blond chick from weeds
13662010-06-012010-09-01Pie4Life1RightCollingwood will finish top 4
13672010-06-012010-09-01Pie4Life2WrongRichmond will win the 2010 AFL wooden spoon
13682010-06-012010-06-25Pie4Life2WrongAustralia will at least make the quarter finals of the 2010 World Cup
13692010-06-032010-06-05wednesday2WrongSam Stosur will win the French Open!
13702010-06-042010-06-13maskath@hotmail.com3WithdrawnLakers will win NBA Finals
13712010-06-042010-12-31maskath@hotmail.com3RightAnother beloved celebrity will die before the year is over
13752010-06-112010-12-16Matt Newport3RightThe price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months.
13762010-06-132017-06-01Houshalter5RightAnother company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo.
13772010-06-132012-12-26Houshalter28RightThe world will not end December 25, 2012.
13782010-06-192010-06-19maskath@hotmail.com1RightLakers will win NBA Finals
13832010-06-222010-06-22vhistory1RightSouth Africa will beat France
13862010-06-272011-01-16Frank2RightJulia Gillard will win the next federal election.
13892010-07-072010-07-09Jack1WrongLebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season.
14162010-07-292029-01-01gwern14By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test.
14172010-07-292030-01-01gwern12“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”
14182010-07-292012-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect.”
14192010-07-292010-12-31gwern2Wrong“By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.”
14202010-07-292150-01-01gwern14"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."
14212010-07-292020-01-01gwern9Right"By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature."
14222010-07-292022-12-31gwern5"In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation."
14232010-07-292025-01-01gwern8"By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists."
14242010-07-292015-06-30gwern5Right“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.”
14252010-07-292025-01-01gwern4“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.”
14262010-07-292025-01-01gwern6By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA
14272010-07-292012-01-31gwern6Right“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.”
14282010-07-292012-09-10gwern4Wrong"Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees."
14292010-07-292108-12-31gwern7"In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions."
14302010-07-292018-01-31gwern4Right"Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses."
14312010-07-292020-12-31gwern5"By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as
14322010-07-292018-12-31gwern5Wrong“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.”
14332010-07-292025-12-07gwern9"The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public."
14392010-07-302050-01-01gwern4“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.”
14422010-07-302020-01-01gwern10“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”
14432010-07-302100-01-01gwern3“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.”
14442010-07-302012-12-31gwern1Right“By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.”
14452010-07-302020-01-01gwern7Wrong“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel - at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.”
14462010-07-302015-01-01gwern6Right“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.”
14472010-07-302024-01-01gwern2“That by 2024 "artificial" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.”
14482010-07-302030-01-01gwern4“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.”
14492010-07-302020-01-01gwern2Right“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.”
14502010-07-302012-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.”
14512010-07-302040-01-01gwern9“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine
14522010-07-302052-01-01gwern11“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”
14532010-07-302020-01-01gwern10Right“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.”
14542010-07-302050-01-01gwern3“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.”
14552010-07-302070-01-01gwern3“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.”
14562010-07-302150-01-01gwern11“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”
14572010-07-302025-12-31gwern2“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory - as described in Marshall McLuhan's "Tetrad" mod
14582010-07-302150-01-01gwern9In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.
14592010-07-302050-01-01gwern5“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”
14602010-07-302020-01-01gwern6Wrong“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or "field propulsion-type" aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.”
14612010-07-302013-12-31gwern3Right“Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not
14622010-07-302025-01-01gwern7“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”
14632010-07-302103-01-01gwern3“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.”
14642010-07-302025-01-01gwern2“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.”
14652010-07-302100-01-01gwern3“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.”
14662010-07-302060-01-01gwern3“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”
14672010-07-302085-01-01gwern7“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”
14682010-07-302103-01-01gwern4“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.”
14692010-07-302063-01-01gwern3“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.”
14702010-07-302203-01-01gwern6“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”
14712010-07-302015-01-01gwern3Wrong“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.”
14722010-07-302018-12-31gwern1Wrong“"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."”
14732010-07-302104-01-01gwern9“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”
14742010-07-302020-01-01gwern5Wrong“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.”
14752010-07-302020-01-01gwern5Wrong“By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.”
14762010-07-302024-12-31gwern3“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024.”
14772010-07-302020-01-01gwern5Wrong“That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane
14782010-07-302040-01-01gwern10“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”
14812010-07-302025-12-31gwern3“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d
14832010-07-302100-01-01gwern3“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.”
14842010-07-302101-12-31gwern3“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental
14852010-07-302101-12-31gwern4"In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius."
14862010-07-302010-10-28dakyne2RightAnti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed).
14872010-07-312015-12-31gwern2“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.”
14882010-07-312012-12-31gwern1Wrong“If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of U
14892010-07-312100-01-01gwern6“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo
14902010-07-312015-01-01gwern1Wrong“By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside
14912010-07-312013-12-31gwern1Wrong“Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI.”
14922010-07-312024-12-31gwern8“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”
14932010-07-312040-01-01gwern6“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”
14942010-07-312012-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete”
14952010-07-312030-01-01gwern13“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”
14962010-07-312100-01-01gwern3Right“An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.”
14972010-07-312012-09-30gwern5Wrong“Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.”
14982010-08-012036-01-01gwern4“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.”
14992010-08-012056-12-31gwern4“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years”
15002010-08-012016-12-31gwern4Wrong“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.”
15012010-08-012050-01-01gwern6“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”
15022010-08-012010-12-31gwern2Wrong“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010”
15032010-08-012025-01-01gwern7“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”
15042010-08-012319-01-01gwern4“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.”
15052010-08-012100-01-01gwern9“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”
15062010-08-012015-12-31gwern1Wrong“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.”
15072010-08-012035-01-01gwern3“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.”
15082010-08-012025-01-01gwern6“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”
15092010-08-022020-01-01gwern9Wrong“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the "Second" or "New Renaissance."”
15102010-08-022030-01-01gwern10“China will break apart by 2030”
15112010-08-022018-12-31gwern3Wrong“Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and "Western World"”
15122010-08-022050-01-01gwern24“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”
15132010-08-022036-01-01gwern4“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d
15142010-08-022015-01-01gwern3Right“No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and c
15152010-08-022050-01-01gwern13China will land a man on Mars by 2050.
15162010-08-022015-01-01gwern5Wrong“Immortal mice by 2015”
15172010-08-022061-01-01gwern4“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo
15182010-08-022023-12-31gwern5“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.”
15192010-08-022020-01-01gwern7Wrong“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.”
15202010-08-022010-11-09gwern1Wrong“The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.”
15212010-08-022023-12-31gwern4“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.”
15222010-08-022035-01-01gwern22“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”
15232010-08-022010-12-31gwern2Wrong“In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.”
15242010-08-022018-01-01gwern14Wrong“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.”
15252010-08-022030-06-08gwern5“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called "Hello, world!", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”
15262010-08-022040-01-01gwern12“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”
15272010-08-022016-01-01gwern2Right“Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades”
15282010-08-022015-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.”
15292010-08-022011-01-01gwern2Wrong“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” --Jonathan M. Rothberg
15302010-08-022016-12-31gwern1Wrong“By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.”
15312010-08-022100-01-01gwern7“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”
15322010-08-022025-01-01gwern8“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”
15332010-08-022050-12-31gwern11“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”
15342010-08-022025-01-01gwern8“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”
15352010-08-022025-01-01gwern9“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”
15362010-08-022025-01-01gwern4“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.”
15372010-08-022025-01-01gwern8“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”
15382010-08-022025-01-01gwern5“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”
15392010-08-022023-01-01gwern4“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.”
15402010-08-022013-11-06gwern2Wrong“The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.”
15412010-08-022050-01-01gwern5“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.”
15422010-08-022020-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture”
15432010-08-022030-01-01gwern5“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”
15442010-08-022035-01-01gwern2“There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.”
15452010-08-022049-12-31gwern4“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.”
15462010-08-022011-12-31gwern1Withdrawn“By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime.”
15472010-08-022025-12-31gwern7“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”
15482010-08-022011-12-31gwern7Wrong“California state government will dissolve in default.”
15492010-08-022013-12-31gwern3Wrong“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other
15502010-08-022014-01-01gwern5Wrong“By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.”
15512010-08-022015-01-01gwern3Wrong“By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.”
15522010-08-022013-01-01gwern1Wrong“By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.”
15532010-08-022050-01-01gwern8“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”
15542010-08-022050-01-01gwern10“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”
15552010-08-022012-01-01gwern2Wrong“By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8
15562010-08-022020-01-01gwern5WrongBy 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010).
15572010-08-032016-03-07gwern2Wrong"I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years." --Jeremy Grantham
15582010-08-032011-06-01gwern2Wrong"Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy." --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
15592010-08-032011-07-07gwern3Wrong"Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months" --Beth Lynn Eicher
15602010-08-032017-08-07gwern8Wrong"I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years." --Jason Kottke
15612010-08-032010-12-28gwern1Wrong"I've got to think this device [iPad] would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin." --Michael Scalisi
15622010-08-032010-08-10gwern1Wrong"10 startups i think will be acquired soon: evernote, posterous/tumblr, twitter, animoto, tweetdeck/seesmic, stardoll, etsy, apture. agree?" --Ouriel Odhayon
15632010-08-032021-01-01gwern3"Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year" --Robert Prechter
15642010-08-032015-06-15gwern2Wrong"Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years." --Nouriel Roubini
15652010-08-032011-01-01gwern1Wrong"10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state"
15662010-08-032014-12-31gwern1Wrong"EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics."
15672010-08-042012-06-06gwern8Wrong"The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” --Ted Ritter
15682010-08-042012-03-02gwern3Wrong"At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010." --Nate Silver
15692010-08-042012-01-01gwern1Wrong"The Mediterranean bluefin breeding population will disappear by 2012 under the current fishing regime." --Sergi Tudela
15702010-08-042014-06-10gwern1Wrong"The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years." --James Howard Kunstler
15712010-08-042010-12-31gwern2Wrong"the Apple tablet will be a flop next year" --Scott Moritz
15722010-08-042021-01-01gwern5"We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem." --Peter Diamandis
15732010-08-042014-05-31gwern4Wrong"Regarding access to the Internet: "Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right."" --Cory Doctorow
15742010-08-042010-12-31gwern1RightMicrosoft will release a variant of the XBox 360 bundled with Natal next Fall.
15752010-08-042010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market."
15762010-08-052017-04-18gwern2Wrong"The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. "I don't think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years' time."" --Tyler Cowen
15772010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Budget car rental brand will be eliminated in favor of Avis" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15782010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Right"GM will close the Saturn brand" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15792010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Esquire magazine will fold" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15802010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Gap will close Old Navy" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15812010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Architectural Digest Magazine will fold" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15822010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Chrysler brand will be discontinued, Jeep & Dodge will remain" --Douglas McIntyre
15832010-08-052010-12-31gwern1Right"United Airlines will merge with a competitor and the brand will disappear" --Douglas A. McIntyre
15842010-08-052012-01-01gwern3Wrong"There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012." (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) --Seth Godin
15852010-08-052011-05-01gwern3Wrong"About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone." --Michael Wolff
15862010-08-052010-10-21gwern1Wrong"NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now." --Michael Wolff
15872010-08-072015-08-06gwern4Right“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” --Bill Gates
15882010-08-092015-08-09gwern6RightVinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.
15892010-08-092011-01-10gwern1Wrong"[Peter] Schiff sees a multiyear recession ahead marked by rampant inflation, a steadily weakening dollar, soaring commodities prices, slumping U.S. stock indexes, and falling wages."
15902010-08-092011-02-01gwern1WrongMoneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmadinejad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential. --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
15912010-08-092010-12-31gwern2RightIran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. --Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
15922010-08-092012-12-17gwern1Wrong"[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up." --Nate Silver
15932010-08-092011-01-01gwern1RightBy 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon. --Bruce Buena de Mesquita
15942010-08-092013-03-31gwern2Wrong"This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don't see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years." --Bill Gary
15952010-08-092012-01-01gwern3WrongAustralia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. --Clive Matthew-Wilson
15962010-08-092012-01-01gwern1Right"Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession." --Clive Matthew-Wilson
15992010-08-102011-03-31gwern2Wrong"There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share." --Steve Ballmer
16002010-08-102013-12-31gwern1WrongThe population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail. --Nate Silver
16012010-08-102012-01-31gwern7WithdrawnThe model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. --Nate Silver
16022010-08-102012-01-01gwern6Wrongby 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. --Gerald Celente
16032010-08-102012-04-01gwern4Wrong3-D is just a fad: "It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache."
16042010-08-102012-01-01gwern6Wrong"For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012." --Jeff Vail
16052010-08-102015-01-01gwern1Right“It’s my prediction that by 2015, we will have an LTE network that will cover most of the important places in the world and that will give us the coverage and capacity we need” --Anssi Vanjoki
16062010-08-102014-04-04gwern7Wrong“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” --Vinod Khosla
16072010-08-102011-11-01gwern2WrongThe Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%.
16082010-08-102013-01-01blanu3RightAndroid will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched.
16092010-08-112013-03-28gwern1Withdrawnloan and securities losses in the U.S. will reach $3.6 trillion. --Nouriel Roubini
16102010-08-112014-01-01gwern1Wrong"We're forecasting real GDP growth of 3.2 percent for 2010 as a whole, and more robust growth in 2011, 2012 and 2013." --Christie Romer
16112010-08-112011-04-01gwern3Wrong"In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent." --Anders Borg
16122010-08-112014-04-01gwern12Wrong"the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years." --Al Gore
16132010-08-112011-11-20gwern5Wrong"Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) ... in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price." --Jakob Nielsen
16142010-08-112010-10-11dakyne1WrongALXA's Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010.
16152010-08-112011-03-06dakyne1WrongUCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament.
16162010-08-112010-12-10dakyne1WrongUCSB men's soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer's final four.
16172010-08-112011-12-31hmadison3WrongThe Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011.
16182010-08-122010-12-31gwern2Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
16192010-08-122011-12-31gwern5Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
16202010-08-122012-12-31gwern2Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
16212010-08-122013-12-31gwern2Wrong"A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
16222010-08-122010-12-31gwern1Wrong"AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
16232010-08-122015-12-01gwern1Right"US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Boeing" --Intrade
16242010-08-122015-12-31gwern1Wrong"US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Northrop Grumman and/or Airbus" --Intrade
16252010-08-122015-12-31gwern1Wrong"US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to any other company or companies" --Intrade
16262010-08-122010-12-31gwern2Wrong"BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade
16272010-08-122011-06-20gwern2Wrong"BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade
16282010-08-122011-12-31gwern3Wrong"BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]" --Intrade
16292010-08-122010-12-31gwern3Wrong"BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
16302010-08-122011-06-30gwern2Wrong"BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011" --Intrade
16312010-08-122011-12-31gwern1Wrong"BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
16322010-08-122011-06-16makemoniesonline1RightThe Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA championship.
16402010-08-132021-01-01gwern2U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. --Smithers & Co.
16412010-08-132010-12-31gwern2Wrong"Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less." --Farhad Manjoo
16422010-08-132011-07-31gwern2Wrong"...a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July." --Jeffrey Goldberg
16432010-08-152011-01-01gwern2Right"Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record" --Intrade
16442010-08-152012-01-01gwern3Wrong"Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record" --Intrade
16452010-08-152011-01-02gwern1Right"Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16462010-08-152012-01-02gwern1Wrong"Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16472010-08-152013-01-02gwern2Right"Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16482010-08-152014-01-02gwern2Wrong"Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16492010-08-152015-01-02gwern3Right"Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record" --Intrade
16502010-08-152011-01-03gwern1Right"Global Average Temperature for 2010 to be higher than for 2009" --Intrade
16512010-08-152011-01-01Frank2Rightr.org will reach 100,000 pageviews a week at least once before the end of 2010
16522010-08-162020-01-01gwern4Right"Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009" --Intrade
16532010-08-162020-01-01gwern4Right"Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009" --Intrade
16542010-08-162015-01-01gwern2Wrong"Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more" --Intrade
16552010-08-162010-12-31gwern1Right"Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade
16562010-08-162010-12-31gwern1Right"Global Temperature Anomaly for Aug 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade
16572010-08-162010-12-31gwern1Right"Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C" --Intrade
16612010-08-172011-01-01gwern1WrongCarr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven.
16622010-08-172020-01-01gwern3Right"the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth." --Michael Vassar
16632010-08-172020-01-01gwern5Wrong"energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth." --W.H. Pearson
16642010-08-172020-01-01gwern2Wrong"We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism." --W.H. Pearson
16652010-08-182020-12-31gwern5"in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl
16662010-08-182043-01-01gwern4Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. --J.B.S. Haldane
16672010-08-182018-12-31gwern1RightUS health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. --orthonormal
16682010-08-182018-12-31gwern1RightUS health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 --orthonormal
16692010-08-182018-12-31gwern1WrongUS health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 --orthonormal
16702010-08-182020-01-01gwern6Right"I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years." --Richard Kennaway
16712010-08-182020-01-01Richard_Kennaway12RightA general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.
16722010-08-192040-08-19jande4173Lindsay Lohan will die before 50
16762010-08-192020-01-01gwern4Right"By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected." --Kevin
16772010-08-192014-12-31gwern4Wrong23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014.
16802010-08-202020-01-01gwern3Wrong"By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US" --Jack
16812010-08-202020-01-01gwern4RightConditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. --Jack
16822010-08-202012-11-20gwern8WrongAssuming a 2nd Obama term, "The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)" --Jack
16832010-08-202020-01-01gwern3Wrong"By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)" --Jack
16842010-08-202020-01-01gwern4Wrong"The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state" --Jack
16852010-08-202030-01-01gwern10Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.
16862010-08-202035-01-01gwern4US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. --Robert Richardson
16872010-08-202015-01-01gwern2Wrong"U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015" --CISFHR
16882010-08-202020-08-20gavinl2The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010
16892010-08-212020-01-01gwern9Wrong"Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence" --James Miller
16902010-08-212020-01-01gwern7Wrong"Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence" --James Miller
16912010-08-212020-01-01gwern20Wrong"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller
16922010-08-212017-01-20gwern3Wrong"While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security" --James Miller
16932010-08-212020-01-01gwern8Wrong"Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year" --James Miller
16942010-08-212015-01-01gwern3Wrong"Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel" --James Miller
16952010-08-212020-01-01gwern9Wrong"Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout" --James Miller
16962010-08-212016-11-04gwern8Wrong"All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen
16992010-08-232013-12-31gwern4Wrong"Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon" -dfranke
17002010-08-232013-12-31gwern3Wrong"The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon" --dfranke
17012010-08-232013-12-31gwern2Wrong"the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples" --dfranke
17022010-08-232010-09-17Mo_Money_2make2WrongARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval
17032010-08-232010-10-23Mo_Money_2make3WrongARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010
17042010-08-232010-11-01Mo_Money_2make2WrongMNKD will sign a partner for AFREZZA by November 1, 2010
17052010-08-232011-01-16Mo_Money_2make3WrongMNKD's stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011
17062010-08-232011-01-16Mo_Money_2make3WrongARNA's stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011
17072010-08-232010-11-01Mo_Money_2make1WrongAtlanta Braves will make it to the NLCS.
17082010-08-242020-01-01gwern3Right"At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade." --blogospheroid
17092010-08-252020-12-31gwern3"there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject" --magfrump
17102010-08-252020-01-01gwern3"sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade"
17112010-08-252011-12-31gwern5Right"I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year" --magfrump
17122010-08-252020-12-31gwern3"I will continue to post on LW at least once a month...in 2020" --magfrump
17132010-08-262020-01-01gwern12WrongA state will try to secede from the US. --Nancy Lebovitz
17142010-08-262020-01-01gwern14WrongA state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. --Nancy Lebovitz
17152010-08-262020-01-01gwern3WrongThere will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. --Nancy Lebovitz
17162010-08-262020-01-01gwern4WrongAutomated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. --Nancy Lebovitz
17172010-08-262020-01-01gwern2RightHome sous-vide cookers <$200. --Nancy Lebovitz
17182010-08-262020-01-01gwern3WrongSous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. --Nancy Lebovitz
17192010-08-262010-05-01gwern1RightLucas Sloan will be admitted into UC Berkeley.
17202010-08-262011-12-31gwern6Wrong"Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011." --Phil Goetz
17272010-08-272014-12-16kochikvp7WrongThe proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014.
17302010-08-282012-01-01gwern4WrongHyperinflation by 2011 --Gonzalo Lira
17312010-08-282020-12-31gwern5“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to
17322010-08-292026-06-01gwern4By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now.
17332010-08-302050-01-01gwern10“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin
17342010-08-302010-09-18Matt2WrongTrike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%]
17352010-08-302010-10-02Matt3RightTrike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct.
17362010-08-302013-12-16kochikvp6WrongAn alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013.
17372010-09-012012-11-07SilentWarrior5RightBarack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012.
17382010-09-022010-10-31gwern1WrongA 2nd US retailer will receive a letter from the FDA ordering them to cease selling piracetam products.
17442010-09-062013-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
17452010-09-062014-12-31gwern3Right"The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014" --Intrade
17532010-09-112010-12-31gwern1Wrong"Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010" --Intrade
17542010-09-112011-06-30gwern2Wrong"Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011" --Intrade
17552010-09-112011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
17612010-09-182050-01-01TheScholar4Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050
17622010-09-182011-09-18gwern3WrongThe Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year.
17632010-09-182012-09-18gwern3Wrong The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years.
17762010-09-222025-09-22gwern4PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025.
17842010-09-242012-01-01gwern1Right_Subversion_ will not be released by 2011.
17852010-09-242013-01-01gwern1Right_Subversion_ will not be released by 2013.
17862010-09-272037-01-01gwern2by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States
17872010-09-272015-01-01gwern2RightBritish forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015
17882010-09-272013-01-01gwern2Right"sales of touch screen phones will rise from 200,000 in 2006 to over 21 million in 2012"
17892010-09-272012-01-01gwern1WrongBlue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops
17902010-09-272012-01-01gwern3Right"22 nanometer chips are in mass production" during 2011
17912010-09-272012-01-01gwern2Right"From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double - from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million."
17922010-09-272013-01-01gwern2Wrong"Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again"
17932010-09-272013-01-01gwern2WrongA stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available
17942010-09-272014-01-01gwern7WrongBy 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb.
17952010-09-282014-01-01gwern1WrongIndia launches Chandrayaan-2 in 2013
17962010-09-282015-01-01gwern2WrongJames Webb telescope is launched in 2014
17972010-09-282015-01-01gwern2Right'16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014
17982010-09-282015-01-01gwern9Wrong'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014
17992010-09-282015-01-01gwern9Wrong'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014
18002010-09-282017-01-01gwern4Right'Laser guns are in naval use' in 2016
18052010-09-292011-11-01komponisto4RightAppeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito.
18182010-09-302011-01-01gwern1RightWikipedia: User:Arbitrarily0 will say User:Gwern changed the Saimoe AfD from redirect/delete to no consensus
18192010-09-302021-01-01gwern6Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.
18202010-10-012011-10-01mikko22WrongMaria and Mikael Jungner will initiate divorce before October 1st, 2011.
18212010-10-032016-01-01gwern1WrongFacebook's 2015 revenues will be >$28 billion --Adam Rifkin, TechCrunch
18222010-10-042020-01-01gwern3WrongA _Myst_ live-action movie will not be released before 2020.
18232010-10-052017-01-01gwern4WrongHVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017
18242010-10-052017-01-01gwern1RightPlaystation 4/successor PS3 released by 2017
18252010-10-052017-01-01gwern3WrongStrait of Messina bridge completed by 2017
18322010-10-052015-01-01gwern2WrongThe _Haruhi_ light novel series will conclude by 2015.
18332010-10-052016-01-01gwern3WrongBy 2016, at least one reviewer of _Haruhi_ will accept the theory that Kyon is god.
18342010-10-072015-10-06gwern9Wrong"Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)" --James Miller
18352010-10-072011-03-07dakyne1WrongThe SIU Saluki men's basketball team will win 15 or more games in the 2010 - 2011 regular season, including the MVC tournament.
18362010-10-072018-01-01gwern1WrongCrossrail opens in London
18372010-10-072018-01-01gwern3Wronge-paper in wide use by 2018
18382010-10-072018-01-01gwern2WrongPortable medical lasers that seal wounds by 2018
18392010-10-072018-01-01gwern5WrongTeleportation of simple molecules by 2018
18442010-10-162010-10-20Matt1RightI'll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday.
18452010-10-162012-01-01TheScholar5WrongBefore 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it's MacBooks.
18462010-10-172100-01-01TheScholar11By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.
18472010-10-182019-01-01gwern2"Robot insect spies are in military use" in 2018
18482010-10-182019-01-01gwern2"Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds" in 2018
18492010-10-182019-01-01gwern4"Anti-fat drugs are available" in 2018
18502010-10-182019-01-01gwern2Wrong"The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared" in 2018
18532010-10-192020-01-01gwern7Wrong"The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on" in 2019
18542010-10-192020-01-01gwern6Wrong"Bionic eyes are commercially available" in 2019
18552010-10-192040-01-01gwern4"Automated freight transport" widespread by 2030s
18562010-10-192020-01-01gwern5Wrongthe Large Aral Sea gone in 2019
18572010-10-192020-01-01gwern4Right"Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day" in 2019
18652010-10-232021-01-01gwern8'Texting by thinking' in 2020
18662010-10-232021-01-01gwern5'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020
18672010-10-232021-01-01gwern7'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020
18682010-10-232021-01-01gwern8'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021
18692010-10-242030-01-01gwern4There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s.
18702010-10-242022-01-01gwern3'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021
18712010-10-242022-01-01gwern4CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022
18722010-10-242022-01-01gwern5'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021
18732010-10-262023-01-01gwern4Deafness cured by 2022
18742010-10-262023-01-01gwern3'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022
18752010-10-262023-01-01gwern3'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022
18762010-10-262023-01-01gwern3'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022
18772010-10-262051-01-01gwern3Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. --Ray Kurzweil
18782010-10-262021-01-01gwern15By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil
18792010-10-262012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18802010-10-262013-01-01gwern2Wrong'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18812010-10-262014-01-01gwern2Wrong'Prince Harry becomes the first member of the British royal family to fly in space.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18822010-10-262015-01-01gwern4Wrong'Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18832010-10-262016-01-01gwern2Wrong'An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is complete control of matter at the atomic level. Within a few years, because they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18842010-10-262017-01-01gwern12Wrong'Existing currencies are abolished. The "mega-watt-hour" becomes the universal unit of exchange.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18852010-10-262018-01-01gwern3Wrong'On his hundred birthday, December 16, Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18862010-10-262020-01-01gwern8Wrong'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed "Project Spaceguard," to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids,
18872010-10-262021-01-01gwern6'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18882010-10-262024-01-01gwern3'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023
18892010-10-262024-01-01gwern3'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023
18902010-10-262024-01-01gwern6'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023
18912010-10-262024-01-01gwern3'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023
18922010-10-262023-01-01gwern24'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18932010-10-262024-01-01gwern4'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18942010-10-262025-01-01gwern5'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18952010-10-262026-01-01gwern3'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal "Braincap." Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of
18962010-10-262041-01-01gwern9'2040 The "Universal Replicator," based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18972010-10-262046-01-01gwern8'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18982010-10-262051-01-01gwern6'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke
18992010-10-262058-01-01gwern6'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke
19002010-10-262062-01-01gwern6"2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space." --Arthur C. Clarke
19012010-10-262091-01-01gwern4'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide "mined" from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' --Arthur C. Clarke
19022010-10-262096-01-01gwern8'2095 The development of a "Space Drive" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'
19032010-10-272025-01-01gwern3Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024
19042010-10-272025-01-01gwern3Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024
19052010-10-272025-01-01gwern6'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024
19062010-10-272020-01-01gwern5WrongA $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. --Ray Kurzweil
19072010-10-272020-01-01gwern11WrongThree-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. --Ray Kurzweil
19082010-10-272020-01-01gwern7WrongThe summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. --Ray Kurzweil
19092010-10-272020-01-01gwern4WrongComputers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). --Ray Kurzweil
19102010-10-272020-01-01gwern3People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
19112010-10-272020-01-01gwern2RightThese special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en
19122010-10-272020-01-01gwern3WrongPeople communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. --Ray Kurz
19132010-10-272020-01-01gwern3WrongMost business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. --Ray Kurzweil
19142010-10-272020-01-01gwern3WrongMost people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit
19152010-10-272020-01-01gwern9WrongCables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. --Ray Kurzweil
19162010-10-272020-01-01gwern10WrongRotating computer hard drives are no longer used. --Ray Kurzweil
19172010-10-292011-02-07pdaveybean2WrongThe New York Jets will win the Superbowl in 2011.
19222010-10-292026-01-01gwern7'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025
19232010-10-292026-01-01gwern9'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025
19242010-10-292026-01-01gwern4'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025
19252010-10-302031-01-01gwern8Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030
19262010-10-312011-10-31TheScholar9RightIn about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week.
19272010-10-312050-01-01TheScholar11By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.
19342010-11-082060-11-07gwern6"Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh
19352010-11-092012-06-01gwern3WrongJeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2012
19362010-11-092016-06-01gwern1RightJeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016
19372010-11-092016-06-01gwern4Wrong"I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent" --Joe Trippi
19382010-11-112027-01-01gwern3Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026
19392010-11-112027-01-01gwern4Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026
19402010-11-112027-01-01gwern8The United States of Africa is established by 2026
19412010-11-112027-01-01gwern4Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026
19462010-11-122020-01-01gwern3WrongThree-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19472010-11-122020-01-01gwern4RightMassively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19482010-11-122020-01-01gwern17WrongComputers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19492010-11-122020-01-01gwern6WrongMost learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. --Ray Kurzweil
19502010-11-122020-01-01gwern13WrongMost human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. --Ray Kurzweil
19512010-11-132020-01-01gwern2WrongI will finish my _Evangelion_ research and write my essay/book on it by 2020.
19522010-11-142049-01-01gwern6'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz
19572010-11-182015-12-31raavin6WrongApple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015
19582010-11-182022-12-31raavin19Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022
19592010-11-182013-12-31raavin2WrongWater reserves in Victoria, Australia will be back up to 100% by 2013
19602010-11-202030-01-01kallman5Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030
19632010-11-202020-01-01kallman22The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade
19642010-11-202015-06-15kallman2WrongThe fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either.
19652010-11-222030-01-01kallman2A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a "cyberspace grafitti" sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following.
19662010-11-242030-01-01PatrickAchtelik13The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.
19742010-11-282037-01-01Nic_Smith4"[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange... and paying bonuses will be gone." - Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context - NS)
19752010-12-012010-12-02Matt1RightBret's spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related.
19762010-12-032013-01-01gwern8RightJulian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010
19772010-12-052010-12-10bretcav1WrongI think that I'll have some predictions into predictionbook by the end of this week
19852010-12-102020-01-01gwern3RightIndia's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. --Shane Legg
19862010-12-102020-01-01gwern5Wrong'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 --Shane Legg
19872010-12-102020-01-01gwern3'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 --Shane Legg
19882010-12-102020-01-01gwern4Right"Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone." by 2020 --Shane Legg
19892010-12-102020-01-01gwern3Right'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' --Roko
19902010-12-102017-01-06gwern3Wrong'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' --Mike
20042010-12-262012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Facebook will pass 1 billion users.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20052010-12-262012-01-01gwern2Right'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20062010-12-262012-01-01gwern3Wrong'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20072010-12-262012-01-01gwern2Wrong'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20082010-12-262012-01-01gwern11Wrong'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20092010-12-262012-01-01gwern2Withdrawn'China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20102010-12-262012-01-01gwern4Wrong'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20112010-12-262012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'Silicon Valley jobs will remain flat' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20122010-12-262012-01-01gwern1WithdrawnCarriers 'will institute charges based on usage' in 2011 --Chris O'Brien
20152010-12-272013-01-01gwern2Wrong_Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt_ will air on Adult Swim before 2013.
20162010-12-292011-07-01gwern1Wrong'Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011' --Brian Breslin
20172010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Wrong'WordPress ecosystem grows up' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20182010-12-292012-01-01gwern2Right'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20192010-12-292012-01-08gwern2Withdrawn'Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year' --Brian Breslin
20202010-12-292011-07-01gwern4Right'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' --Brian Breslin
20212010-12-292012-01-01gwern2Right'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20222010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Right'Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20232010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Right'Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20242010-12-292012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Facebook credits expand beyond facebook' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20252010-12-292012-01-01gwern2Withdrawn'Google reboots android marketplace' in 2011 --Brian Breslin
20262010-12-302023-01-02gwern3Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023.
20272011-01-012015-01-01gwern1RightBy 2015 a mother will be able to have much of the genome of her unborn child sequenced from her own blood.
20282011-01-012012-01-01gwern4WrongObama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. --Capital Commentary
20292011-01-012012-01-01gwern1Wrong'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan --Capital Commentary
20302011-01-012012-01-01gwern4Right'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20312011-01-012011-12-01gwern14WrongBy December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro --Capitol Commentary
20322011-01-012012-01-01gwern9Wrong'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20332011-01-012012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Hillary Clinton will step down as Secretary of State' in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20342011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongRoberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 --Capitol Commentary
20352011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongThe Supreme Court will hear an appeal challenging Obamacare and uphold the acts in 2011. --Capitol Commentary
20362011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongAsif Ali Zardari will cease to be president of Pakistan during 2011
20372011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongAsif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights
20382011-01-012012-01-01gwern4WrongWikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011
20392011-01-012012-01-01gwern10WrongWikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011
20402011-01-012015-01-01gwern3WrongThe target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America
20412011-01-012011-03-01gwern1WrongKen Jennings will defeat Watson at _Jeopardy!_
20422011-01-012012-01-01gwern3RightFidel Castro will not die in 2011
20432011-01-012012-01-01gwern1RightMySpace is sold by Fox News Corp in 2011. --Ben Parr
20442011-01-012012-01-01gwern1WrongBebo.com sold by Criterion Capital Partners in 2011. --Ben Parr
20452011-01-012012-01-01gwern4RightNo Facebook IPO in 2011 --Ben Parr
20492011-01-022011-12-31Richard_Kennaway7RightOn 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz.
20522011-01-022013-01-01gwern1WrongIntrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013.
20532011-01-022015-01-01gwern4RightIntrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015.
20542011-01-022012-01-01gwern7RightWikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011.
20552011-01-022012-01-10gwern3RightObama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011.
20562011-01-022012-01-01gwern7WrongOil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012
20572011-01-022012-01-01gwern3RightApple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011.
20582011-01-022012-01-01gwern11WrongApple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011.
20592011-01-022012-01-01gwern2WrongGroupon will buy Foursquare in 2011 --Seamus Condron
20602011-01-022012-01-01gwern1RightKevin Rose will leave Digg, or sell it for a bargain basement price, then leave. --Seamus Condron
20612011-01-022012-01-01gwern1RightDelicious will either not be sold or will not be as popular in 2011 as it was in 2010. --Seamus Condron
20622011-01-022012-01-01gwern2WrongReaders' Choice for Time's [2011] Person of the Year: Anonymous --Seamus Condron
20632011-01-022012-01-01gwern2RightNintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 --_Game Informer_
20642011-01-022012-01-01gwern1RightAt least one FPS game announced for Xbox Kinect in 2011 --_Game Informer_
20652011-01-022012-01-01gwern1Wrong_Diablo III_ port to consoles announced in 2011 --_Game Informer_
20662011-01-022012-01-01gwern1Wrong_Final Fantasy XIV_ announced by Sony in 2011. --_Game Informer_
20672011-01-022012-01-01gwern3Wrong_Half-Life 3_ announced by Valve in 2011. --_Game Informer_
20682011-01-022012-01-01gwern2Wrong_Duck Hunt_ revealed for 3DS --_Game Informer_
20692011-01-032035-01-01gwern5"In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..." --Will Hutton
20702011-01-032036-01-01gwern8'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada
20712011-01-032035-01-01gwern8AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada
20722011-01-032025-01-01gwern9Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada
20732011-01-032035-01-01gwern6'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po
20742011-01-032030-01-01gwern11'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman
20752011-01-032020-01-01gwern3Right'I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson' --John Ellis
20762011-01-032020-01-01gwern6Wrong'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' --John Ellis
20772011-01-032035-01-01gwern4Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. --Mike Lee
20782011-01-032035-01-01gwern5Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee
20792011-01-032026-01-01gwern3US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025.
20802011-01-032083-01-01gwern3US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082
20812011-01-042011-11-30Laus_CB6WrongFacebook will be less visitors in 2011
20822011-01-052012-01-01scav2Rightkatla volcano will not erupt in 2011
20832011-01-052011-12-31scav6Wrong3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011
20842011-01-062014-01-01gwern4WrongEcuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest.
20852011-01-062012-01-01gwern3RightCEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20862011-01-062012-01-01gwern2WrongYahoo will sell its Chinese assets in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20872011-01-062012-01-01gwern1WrongYahoo will sell its Yahoo Japan shares in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20882011-01-062012-01-01gwern2WrongYahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. --Robert X. Cringely
20892011-01-062012-01-01gwern3Wrong'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 --Robert X. Cringely
20902011-01-062012-01-01gwern5RightThe US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. --Kevin
20912011-01-062011-02-23gwern2Right'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' --SarahC
20922011-01-062012-01-01gwern11Right'General AI will not be made in 2011.' --JoshuaZ
20932011-01-062012-01-01gwern3Right'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' --JoshuaZ
20942011-01-062012-01-01gwern4Right'The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]' --JoshuaZ
20952011-01-062012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Ryan Williams's recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP will be tightened' --JoshuaZ
20962011-01-062012-01-01gwern8Wrong'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction "megachurch" means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' --JoshuaZ
20972011-01-062012-01-01gwern6Wrong'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' --JoshuaZ
20982011-01-062012-01-01gwern2Wrong'the United States has a historically hot summer [2011].' --orthonormal
20992011-01-072012-01-01gwern2WrongApple buys Time Warner Cable in 2011 --Robert X. Cringeley
21002011-01-072012-01-01gwern2WrongThe price of gold will fall in real terms. --Costanza
21032011-01-072020-01-01gwern8Wrong'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' --orangecat
21042011-01-072012-01-01gwern3Wrong'There will be a second season of _High School of the Dead_' --Sketerpot
21052011-01-072012-01-01gwern4Wrong'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' --Sketerpot
21062011-01-072012-01-01gwern2Wrong'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' --Sketerpot
21072011-01-072013-07-01gwern7RightConditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed --Sketerpot
21082011-01-072012-01-01gwern6Wrong'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' --icebrand
21092011-01-072012-01-01gwern4Wrong'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' --icebrand
21102011-01-082012-01-01gwern2WrongJared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally
21232011-01-102012-01-01gwern4Right'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' --scav
21242011-01-102021-01-01gwern10'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw
21252011-01-102012-01-01gwern3Right'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' --CronoDAS
21262011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Wrong'"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' --CronoDAS
21272011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Right'The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%' --CronoDAS
21282011-01-102012-01-01gwern2Wrong'I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%' --CronoDAS
21292011-01-102012-01-01gwern2Wrong'I get a "real job": 1%' --CronoDAS
21302011-01-102040-01-01gwern13GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_
21312011-01-102012-01-01gwern3Right'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' --Skatche
21322011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Right'Despite media hysterics as to its imminent demise the current coalition of parties in government in Australia will remain in power. (70%)' --luminosity
21332011-01-102012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'Newspapers in Australia will be found to be boosting subscription numbers by a significant amount to swindle advertisers, again. (40%)' --luminosity
21342011-01-112012-01-31scav2WrongAverage daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011
21352011-01-112020-10-31scav3WithdrawnA Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won't be a string theory.
21362011-01-122026-01-12Nic_Smith1RightJared Loughner will be convicted (or plead guilty) to at least one charge related to the 2011 Tuscon shooting.
21372011-01-122014-01-01gwern1WrongI will switch from Mnemosyne to Anki by 2014.
21382011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Withdrawn'Makerbot will sell more than 10,000 3D printers in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21392011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21402011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong'A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21412011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'Both Stratasys and Objet will release $5000 desktop 3D printers at Euromold 2011.' --Joris Peels
21422011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong'3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21432011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21442011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong'Microsoft buys Dassault Systemes in 2011.' --Joris Peels
21452011-01-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong'3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011' --Joris Peels
21462011-01-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong"bre Pettis is profiled in the New Yorker." --Joris Peels
21492011-01-182012-01-01gwern1Wrong_The Notenki Memoirs_ will be available as an official commercial ebook in 2011.
21502011-01-192050-01-01gwern5“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M
21512011-01-212016-01-01bobpage4WrongA team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015
21522011-01-222011-07-18Nic_Smith3WrongA significant portion of the plot of _Kore wa Zombie Desu ka?_ will be revealed to be a "Dying Dream."
21562011-01-252020-01-01gwern1RightGoogle will kill Google Knol by 2020.
21572011-01-252018-01-01gwern3RightGotthard Base Tunnel completed by 2018.
21582011-01-252040-01-01gwern11EU to dissolve by 2040.
21592011-01-252016-01-01gwern2WrongWooly mammoth resurrected by 2016.
21602011-01-252032-01-01gwern5Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032.
21612011-01-252014-01-01gwern1Right4G standard finalized and official by 2014.
21622011-01-252016-01-21gwern8Wrong“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” --John Feminella
21652011-01-272011-02-27gwern1WrongDavid Fincher will win 2011 Best Director Oscar --John Scalzi
21662011-01-272011-02-27gwern1RightColin Firth will win 2011 Best Actor Oscar. --John Scalzi
21672011-01-272011-02-27gwern2RightNatalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar --John Scalzi
21682011-01-272011-02-27gwern1RightChristian Bale will win 2011 Supporting Actor Oscar --John Scalzi
21692011-01-272011-02-27gwern1WrongAmy Adams will win 2011 Best Supporting Actress Oscar. --John Scalzi
21702011-01-272011-02-27gwern3Right_Toy Story 3_ will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. --John Scalzi
21892011-02-112012-01-01Matt2WrongPD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011.
21982011-02-132012-02-13gwern2Wrong"Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition." --FfT
21992011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Wrong'The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non
22002011-02-142012-01-01gwern4Right'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' --FtT
22012011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'At year's end, the district court will still not have issued a final judgment on the Google Book Search settlement.' --FtT
22022011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi
22032011-02-142012-01-01gwern4Wrong'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' --FtT
22042011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Withdrawn'The RIAA and/or MPAA will be sued over their role in the government's actions to reassign DNS names owned by allegedly unlawful web sites. Even if the lawsuit manages to get all the way to trial, there won't be a significant ruling against them.' --FtT
22052011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Wrong'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore
22062011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'ICANN still will not have introduced new generic TLDs.' --FtT
22072011-02-142012-01-01gwern1Right'The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the
22232011-02-162011-05-30Ben Doherty1Right80% of my students will have signed up to prediction book and make eight or more predictions by the end of May
22242011-02-172012-01-01gwern7Wrong'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' --Bruce Wagner
22272011-02-192011-02-20Ben Doherty1WrongI will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 6 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP)
22282011-02-192011-02-20Ben Doherty1WrongI will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 10 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP)
22352011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1WrongThere is between $20.00 and $22.00 in my change jar (as determined by counting machine).
22362011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere's between $18.00 and $24.00 in the change jar (counted by machine).
22372011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere's between $16 and $26 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine)
22382011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere’s between $11 and $36 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine)
22392011-02-272011-02-28Nic_Smith1RightThere’s between $5 and $50 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine)
22402011-03-012011-04-03bobpage3WrongInitial shipments of iPad 2 will have a display that emits circularly polarized light
22412011-03-012011-03-06DavidPercival1WrongWe will receive rain Friday, Saturday and Sunday because we are going to camp on a deserted beach!
22422011-03-012011-03-08Eun1RightSomeone will be sick during or after the field trip on the beach. The trip will be very hard for contemporary well protected people to undergo difficult circumstance.
22432011-03-022011-05-02Ben Doherty1WrongThe final funnel form will be oval
22442011-03-022011-05-02Ben Doherty1WrongThe final funnel form will be elliptical
22452011-03-022013-03-16nam200113WrongIphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit!
22462011-03-022012-01-10gwern1WrongYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22472011-03-022012-01-10gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22482011-03-022012-01-10gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22492011-03-022012-01-10gwern1WrongYoshiyuki Sadamoto will release >=9 stages of the _Evangelion_ manga in 2011
22502011-03-032011-03-06Sandra Åhlén2WrongI will call my brother on his birthday.
22542011-03-032013-01-01gwern1WrongYoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2012
22552011-03-032014-01-01gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2013
22562011-03-032015-01-01gwern1RightYoshiyuki Sadamoto's _Evangelion_ manga will be finished sometime in 2014
22602011-03-032011-03-07Jessica Hartany3WrongI will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday
22612011-03-072011-03-08Jessica Hartany1WrongI will finish reading the drowned world and at least 4 papers before class by Tuesday
22622011-03-072011-03-07Jessica Hartany1WithdrawnI will write two blog posts from the 'epic' camping weekend by midnight
22632011-03-072011-03-14DavidPercival3WrongI will aquire a copy of 'Children of the Dust' and watch the TV series in an attempt to develop an understanding of post-apocalyptic survival following nuclear war.
22642011-03-072015-12-30maxdemian2WrongFacebook will be valued at less than $30 billion by 2015.
22652011-03-072012-01-01maxdemian2RightGaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011.
22682011-03-072011-03-07maxdemian1RightI will read at least one chapter of a book tonight.
22742011-03-072011-03-14Eunseo2RightMy house mate declared that she has quited smoking from today. However, she will restart smoking in a week.
22852011-03-072011-03-15Jessica Hartany1Rightangelina will get a window seat when she start work next week.
22862011-03-082011-03-08DavidPercival1RightI will fall asleep reading World War Z tonight due to exhaustion!
22872011-03-082011-03-11nam20011Wrongfew ppl in our class will get cold this week! ;))
22882011-03-082011-03-31dumun1WrongEvery student will come to join yoga class.20% of them will join another yoga class individually.
22892011-03-082011-03-08alvinTng1RightOur class will end early today...
22902011-03-082011-03-08Jessica Hartany4Rightben will not make it back to comp lab by 4pm.
22912011-03-082011-03-10sailoryoon1WrongI'll be massive drunk tmr night.
22922011-03-082011-03-11Ben Doherty1RightI will remember to have lunch before 2pm for the next three days.
22932011-03-082011-03-11nam20013WrongI will be right time for yoga class!
22942011-03-082011-03-15Eunseo1RightTamara(tutor of FPM) will give a chance to us to have Frank Gery's lecture next Tuesday (15th of March 2011).
22952011-03-082011-03-11Ye5WrongBen will be late for the yoga class.
22962011-03-082011-03-11Eunseo1RightI will finish reading at least 3 chaters and papers by friday.
22972011-03-092011-03-12wael1WrongThree student will miss the yoga class
22982011-03-092011-03-11Jessica Hartany1RightI will be on time on Friday
22992011-03-092011-03-31Jessica Hartany3WrongI will only drink coffee once a week for the rest of March.
23002011-03-092011-03-12nam20011RightI will eat "pho' " (vietnamese beef noodle soup) at least one in this week! I miss pho'
23012011-03-092011-06-10Eunseo3WrongI will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term.
23022011-03-092011-03-12dumun1Wrong60% of students will have lunch before yoga class!!
23032011-03-092011-03-10Mel Eclarinal1WithdrawnI will write 3 blog posts by tomorrow
23042011-03-092011-03-09alvinTng1RightI'll finish a model before I sleep...
23052011-03-092011-03-14Sandra Åhlén1RightI won't see my flatmate more than once this week.
23062011-03-102060-01-01gwern5User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips.
23072011-03-102011-03-12DavidPercival2WrongOur Qantas flight to Adelaide will depart Sydney on time tomorrow.
23102011-03-102011-04-01Mel Eclarinal2RightI will receive the books I ordered from amazon by April.
23112011-03-102011-03-11Ben Doherty3Wrongless than 12 students will attend my class today
23122011-03-102011-03-14sailoryoon1WrongI'll finish my one of readings that i read before at the camping within this weekends.
23132011-03-112011-03-18DavidPercival1WrongI will beat Stephen in our latest game of 'Words with Friends'
23142011-03-112011-03-21Sandra Åhlén4RightI will attend at least nine yoga classes
23152011-03-112011-03-11alvinTng1RightI'll be in dreamland by 12am tonight... Tired... Zzz...
23162011-03-112011-03-13wael1Wrong6 of students from Ben's class will attend yoga class again
23172011-03-112011-03-14wael1Wrongonly 4 students will read to night
23182011-03-112011-03-12Sandra Åhlén1RightI will make it to class on time on saturday.
23192011-03-112011-03-20nam20011Righti will lose weight after yoga class for sure!
23202011-03-122011-03-13alvinTng1RightSomeone will make me drink at least 3 glass at the birthday party later..!
23212011-03-122011-03-14Mel Eclarinal1WrongI will finish my blog post about the generator before Monday
23222011-03-122013-12-31gwern1Wrong“By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period.” --Shamir Karkal
23232011-03-132011-03-14alvinTng1RightNam will oversleep tomorrow and come to uni late...
23242011-03-142011-03-14puya2RightLess than 7 students will attend the RUBY lesson today.
23252011-03-142011-03-15dumun1RightI will finish at least one reading before sun-rise
23262011-03-142011-03-20nam20011WrongI will finish "on the beach" soon this week!
23272011-03-142011-04-30nam20012WrongI will take IELTS on 19th March, morning and i will get 6.0 !
23282011-03-142014-12-25Ben Doherty4WrongMad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014
23292011-03-142011-03-18nam20013WrongAll clubs which are play home at second game in 1/8 Round Champions League will get into next round 1/4!
23302011-03-142011-03-17wael1RightI will design a house this week
23312011-03-142011-03-15wael1WrongBen will wear blue T-shitr on tuesday
23322011-03-142011-03-15dumun1RightI will not late for work today!!
23332011-03-142011-03-18Hani1RightI will read three article before Friday
23342011-03-142011-03-16wael1RightI will look to the shark map in Sydney on Wednesday?
23352011-03-142011-03-16DavidPercival1RightI will struggle with the fitness training at Soccer tonight after my first Bikram Yoga session!
23362011-03-152011-03-15puya1Rightless than 7 students will come to Ben's office today.
23392011-03-152011-03-19sailoryoon1Rightwe can see super moon on this saturday.
23442011-03-152011-03-22Jessica Hartany1WrongI will NOT get anyone from work or uni sick by the end of the week.
23492011-03-162011-05-16Ye1WrongI will go to yoga class at least 8 times.
23502011-03-162011-03-20Ye1RightBen will not be joining us for the camping trip.
23532011-03-162011-03-30puya1WrongI will lose 2 kilos by next 15 days
23542011-03-162011-03-17dumun1Wrong90% of classmates will be arrived in class on time
23552011-03-162011-03-17alvinTng1RightIt will not rain tomorrow so I'll not need to bring my umbrella to uni...
23562011-03-162020-01-01Mel Eclarinal19WrongNuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.
23572011-03-172011-03-22Sandra Åhlén1RightUrban drawings will be done by monday.
23582011-03-172011-01-01DavidPercival1WithdrawnAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020.
23592011-03-172012-01-01DavidPercival1WithdrawnAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020
23602011-03-172011-03-17DavidPercival1WithdrawnAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020
23612011-03-172020-01-16DavidPercival8WrongAustralia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020
23622011-03-172012-12-13Sandra Åhlén3WrongThe world will end on 12 December 2012.
23632011-03-172012-12-22Sandra Åhlén3WrongThe world will end on 21 December 2012.
23642011-03-172011-03-18Eunseo1WrongI will go to morning yoga class on 18 of March 2011.
23652011-03-172011-03-22wael8WrongThe international media will not mention anything about Japan's Earthquake on next Monday
23662011-03-182011-04-30nam20011WrongI can not finish any books !
23672011-03-182011-03-18puya2WrongBen will not be tired at the end of todays class.
23682011-03-182012-12-31puya6RightThe world will not end on December 2012.
23692011-03-182011-08-24bobpage7WrongDeus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release)
23702011-03-182011-05-18Eunseo3WrongVolcano will accur on Baekdu Mountain within 2mounths.
23712011-03-182011-03-25Mel Eclarinal2WrongThe Messenger probe spacecraft that is meant to circle Mercury will fly away from Mercury and end up circling the Sun.
23752011-03-192011-03-19nam20011Righttoday we will finish class later than 4pm!
23762011-03-192011-03-19alvinTng1WrongI'll watch ALIEN 2 tonight.
23772011-03-192011-03-19DavidPercival1WrongTottenham Hotspur will beat West Ham by two goals or more tonight.
23782011-03-202013-01-01puya5WrongBy the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent.
23792011-03-202011-03-22Mel Eclarinal2RightI will write 3 blog posts before the end of Monday the 21st of March 2011.
23802011-03-202011-03-23Ben Doherty1WrongWith current perforation settings the façade for the bank building will meet or exceed requirements for shading according to my testing.
23812011-03-202011-03-21sailoryoon1RightDK will bring coffee in the morning into his work.
23822011-03-202011-04-30Jessica Hartany3RightPetrol price's average in Sydney won't be below $1.40 (excluding discounts and vouchers) until the end of April
23832011-03-202011-03-20alvinTng1RightIt'll be raining when I get up in the morning.
23842011-03-212013-08-08bobpage12WrongInitial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM
23852011-03-212011-03-21sailoryoon1WrongI'll finish to make my disaster story for tomorrow by 11 pm tonight.
23862011-03-212011-03-27DavidPercival2RightLabour will lose this weekends NSW State election.
23872011-03-212016-03-21Mel Eclarinal7WrongThere will be a pandemic within the next 5 years.
23932011-03-212011-03-22Nic_Smith1RightCopy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, delivered tomorrow.
23942011-03-212011-03-22Nic_Smith1RightScooter, due Weds, will arrive tomorrow.
23952011-03-212011-03-23Nic_Smith1WrongScooter will arrive on Weds.
23962011-03-212011-03-22puya3WrongBen will come ten minutes late to class tomorrow.
23972011-03-212011-03-22sailoryoon1RightI won't finish my work by 4A.M tomorrow.
23982011-03-212011-03-26wael1Wrongthe war between Lybia and France will strat this Friday
23992011-03-212011-05-01Ben Doherty3WrongThe price of petrol at the pump will reach $1.55 at some point before the end of April - http://bit.ly/eUr3eE
24022011-03-222011-10-01Ben Doherty4RightMuammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011
24032011-03-222011-03-31Ben Doherty4WrongMuammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011
24042011-03-222011-12-31Ben Doherty3RightMuammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011
24052011-03-222011-07-31DavidPercival2WrongOlivia will get the promotion to Customer Supervisor position at Qantas.
24062011-03-222011-03-22sailoryoon1RightI'll finish bloging for packing tonight.
24072011-03-222011-03-23Nic_Smith1WrongTime to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-1
24082011-03-222011-03-23Nic_Smith1RightTime to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-2
24092011-03-222011-03-23Nic_Smith1RightTime to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-5
24102011-03-232012-12-23seansman15@hotmail.com6RightThe 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax.
24132011-03-232011-03-23puya1WrongI will attend today's public lecture.
24142011-03-232011-03-25alvinTng2RightWar of the worlds DVD will be sent to be on Friday...
24152011-03-232011-04-07nam20012WrongChelsea will win MU at SB in 1/4 CL
24162011-03-232011-03-01nam20011WrongChelsea will meet Barcelona at Wembley Stadium
24172011-03-232011-03-24Mel Eclarinal1RightClass will go beyond 7:00pm tonight.
24182011-03-242011-03-27DavidPercival2WrongSydney Swans will beat Melborne in the AFL this weekend
24192011-03-242011-03-26Ben Doherty1RightI will have someone sat in the seat next to me at some point in my flight
24202011-03-242011-03-26Ben Doherty1WrongMy flight will take off within +- 5 minutes of the scheduled time (QF1)
24232011-03-262011-03-27alvinTng1RightI'll leave my house just twice today.
24312011-03-272011-04-03alvinTng1RightI'll finish 2 models this week.
24322011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1WrongI will have a PHP script to parse and reformat STATA summary stats by 5pm.
24332011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 6pm.
24342011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 7pm.
24352011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 8pm.
24362011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 9pm.
24372011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 10pm.
24382011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 11pm.
24392011-03-272011-03-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats today.
24402011-03-282011-04-04Mel Eclarinal4RightI will write 2 blog posts daily for 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow.
24452011-03-292011-03-27DavidPercival1WithdrawnThe USA or Russia will be involved in my hypothetical nuclear threat scenario for my design studio.
24462011-03-292011-05-29DavidPercival1RightThe USA or Russia will be involved in my hypothetical nuclear threat scenario for my design studio.
24472011-03-292011-04-03dumun1RightI will watch 3 earthquake movie before this weekend.
24482011-03-292011-03-30dumun2WrongAustralia will beat Germany by 1:0 tomorrow!
24492011-03-292011-03-29gwern1WrongI will submit all relevant gwern.net links into witcoin.com within 30 minutes.
24502011-03-292011-04-06wael2RightI will write 3 blogs before 5 of April
24572011-03-302011-04-06puya3Wrongchelsea will eliminate man united in the quarterfinals of the champions league.
24582011-03-302011-12-31puya3WrongImmigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year.
24592011-03-302011-04-03Mel Eclarinal1RightDarren will finish reading 'The Walking Dead' by Sunday
24602011-03-312011-04-07Jessica Hartany2RightI will finish mapping for 'The City' by next Thursday
24612011-03-312011-12-15Jessica Hartany3RightThe Vic Hotel in Annandale will start serving Bulmers on tap again by Dec 2011.
24622011-03-312011-04-03Sandra Åhlén1RightMilan will beat Inter on Sunday
24632011-03-312021-03-31Mel Eclarinal6Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years
24642011-03-312050-03-31Mel Eclarinal4The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050
24652011-03-312011-04-08wael1RightI will lose 2 kilos before next friday
24662011-03-312011-04-01Eunseo1RightI will clearn our unit bathroom tomorrow.
24672011-03-312011-03-31alvinTng1WrongI'll not be able to sleep tonight
24682011-03-312011-04-04wael1WrongTriple h will beat the undertaker on WrestlMainia 27
24692011-04-012011-05-01Sandra Åhlén2Wrong"Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011" - Intrade
24702011-04-012011-04-16minhduc3WrongNuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April
24712011-04-012012-04-01nam20012WrongI wont see her any more
24722011-04-012011-04-02Eunseo2WrongDumun and I will be in same group in Sustainable Urban Development.
24732011-04-012011-05-01alvinTng1WrongThere'll be 3 ALIEN related reports on the news this month.
24742011-04-022011-06-02minhduc3RightAllied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi's government!
24752011-04-022011-04-03nam20011WrongWest Ham will beat MU tonight! or at least a draw
24792011-04-032011-05-23Sandra Åhlén2RightFC Barcelona will win La Liga 2010/11
24802011-04-032011-04-21Sandra Åhlén1RightReal Madrid will win Copa del Rey 2010/11
24812011-04-032011-04-21Sandra Åhlén1Wrong"Barcelona will beat Real Madrid 5-0 in the Copa del Rey final" - Barcelona president Sandro Rosell
24822011-04-032011-04-04sailoryoon1WrongI will finish documentation for bus station by tuesday night.
24872011-04-052011-04-26minhduc1RightI will be at the library everyday until the mid semester break
24882011-04-052011-04-05minhduc1WrongToday, I will finish Event-Cities by midnight
24892011-04-052011-04-06DavidPercival1RightChristiano Ronaldo will play for Real Madrid against Tottenham Hotspur in tomorrows Champions League clash.
24902011-04-062011-04-06sailoryoon1RightI will cook dinner tonight for my boy friend.
24912011-04-062011-04-21DavidPercival2WrongTottenham will defeat Real Madrid on aggregate in the Champions League
24922011-04-062011-04-07alvinTng1RightI'll finish watching all the DVDs by tomorrow.
24932011-04-062014-08-09puya21WrongBush will commit suicide by the next 3 years.
24942011-04-062011-12-29puya4WrongProject and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year.
24972011-04-062011-04-06sailoryoon1WrongI will go shopping tonight with boy friend.
24982011-04-072011-04-07Ye1RightI will watch at least 2 movies by midnight
24992011-04-072011-05-12etrecheesecake1RightI will get a 4.0 in my class.
25002011-04-072011-04-07sailoryoon2WrongI will finish tutorial 1 tonight for project management subject.
25072011-04-082011-04-10DavidPercival2WrongIt will rain for my soccer match tomorrow.
25082011-04-082016-04-08Nic_Smith2RightMercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now.
25112011-04-082011-07-08alvinTng1RightMy rent will increase in June
25122011-04-092011-04-12Sandra Åhlén3Wrong"Rare pink diamond to fetch £7m at auction"
25132011-04-092011-04-11minhduc2RightLiverpool will win Manchester City
25142011-04-092011-04-10nam20011Wrongmy nose will recover "cold" tomorrow
25152011-04-092011-04-16nam20011WrongMU 1-2 Chelsea next week game!
25162011-04-092011-04-10wael1RightI'm going to hunt and fish weighing half Kg
25212011-04-102011-04-15nam20011Rightshe will call me or text me next weekend for dinner!
25222011-04-102011-06-30kallman3RightGoogle will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents
25232011-04-102011-05-04Sandra Åhlén1WrongI will get a Credit for Finance & Project Management Assignment 1
25242011-04-102012-12-12Ye19WrongNorthern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012
25252011-04-112011-04-11Ben Doherty1Right10 or more people will attend tonight's compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt)
25262011-04-112011-04-11Ben Doherty1Right5 or more people will attend tonight’s compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt)
25302011-04-112011-04-12puya1WrongBen will be late for tomorrows class.
25312011-04-112011-04-16nam20011Wrongmy cold will cover next 3 days, please!
25322011-04-112013-01-01nam200114Right2012 is not end of this world!
25332011-04-112011-09-16Eunseo2WrongThis summer in North hemisphere will be the hottest weather ever.
25342011-04-122012-01-01Nic_Smith1WrongMy scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level this year.
25352011-04-122012-04-12Nic_Smith2WrongMy scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year.
25382011-04-132011-06-13Sandra Åhlén1WrongNiklas Eliasson will be sentenced to 14 years in prison
25392011-04-132011-06-13Sandra Åhlén1WrongNiklas Eliason will be sentenced to psychiatric care
25402011-04-132011-04-13Ye1RightTo save money, I will cook my own dinner tonight.
25412011-04-142011-05-05dumun4RightMan UTD will beat Shalke 04 on semi-final of Champhions League.
25422011-04-142011-04-18wael1RightMy sketch design will finish after 3 days?
25432011-04-152011-06-17niekjetten3WrongI think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011)
25442011-04-152011-04-16minhduc1RightTomorrow, It will rain when I wake up!
25452011-04-152011-04-17minhduc2WrongReal Madrid will win Barcelona on Sunday
25462011-04-152016-04-15Nic_Smith1RightI will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years.
25472011-04-162011-04-17Nic_Smith1RightThe string cheese that I left in the TA office is still there.
25482011-04-162016-04-16nam20013WrongTV soon will come out with super wide-screen 2.35:1
25492011-04-162013-04-16nam20015Wrongelevator will be control by voice?
25502011-04-162021-04-16nam20012PC at home will disappear in future
25512011-04-162021-04-16nam20012There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human?
25522011-04-162511-04-16nam20012Invisible clothes will be real in 5OO years later
25532011-04-162011-05-16alvinTng1WrongThere will 2 constituencies won by the opposition parties in the coming S'pore election.
25562011-04-172011-04-22puya2Wrongben will do the first floor of the opt model.
25572011-04-182011-04-22sailoryoon1RightI will go easter show on Friday.
25582011-04-182011-04-27sailoryoon1RightI will get new mornitor within this week.
25652011-04-202111-04-20nam20013Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future!
25662011-04-202011-04-27Eunseo1WrongAfter Easter holiday, the temperature will be down more than 5 degrees.
25672011-04-202011-04-26Eunseo4WrongI will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday.
25702011-04-212011-04-28nam20011WrongMy Car's angels eyes order will come the end of next week! :( too late!
25712011-04-212011-04-22alvinTng2WrongMy diarrhoea will stop tomorrow.
25722011-04-222011-04-24wael1RightI will talk to more than 100 people on Saturday
25732011-04-222011-04-24Ben Doherty1RightThere will be more than 4 people in attendance at the Sydney Less Wrong meetup at some point while I'm there. http://bit.ly/dXMiL0
25762011-04-242011-05-05Jase9r3WrongThe yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin
25772011-04-242011-08-24minhduc2RightDespite the warning of International Rivers Network (IRN), Laos will keep building Xayaburi hydroelectric dam on Mekong River.
25802011-04-252011-04-26Sandra Åhlén2RightAt least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow.
25812011-04-252011-04-26Sandra Åhlén1WrongGroup meeting will finish before 11.30 tomorrow.
25822011-04-252011-05-06Sandra Åhlén2RightMatt will submit a physical model at his next presentation
25852011-04-262011-05-01sailoryoon1WrongI will finish my elective assignment within this week.
25862011-04-262011-04-28Nic_Smith1RightI will have a presentation on Thursday.
25872011-04-262011-05-13Sandra Åhlén2RightEric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011
25882011-04-262011-05-15Sandra Åhlén1WrongEric Saade will win Eurovision Song Contest 2011
25892011-04-262011-04-26Nic_Smith1WrongHazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me.
25902011-04-262011-04-26Nic_Smith1RightHazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me.
25912011-04-262011-04-26Nic_Smith1WrongHazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me.
25952011-04-282011-04-30DavidPercival1WrongThe vicar will pronounce William or Kate's name wrong during the Royal Wedding.
25962011-04-282011-04-30DavidPercival1RightMy soccer game will be called off this weekend.
25992011-04-282011-05-08alvinTng1RightTanjong Pagar will win in the coming SG election for the 11th time.
26002011-04-292011-05-01sailoryoon1RightI will study all night after finish work during weekends.
26012011-04-292011-04-29Nic_Smith1WrongA student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour.
26122011-04-302011-05-01Ben Doherty1WrongThe coastal trail will take less than 6 hours tomorrow
26132011-04-302011-05-01Ben Doherty1RightThe coastal trail will take less than 8 hours tomorrow
26142011-04-302011-05-07nam20011Wrongi will watch fast and furious within this week
26182011-05-012011-05-01minhduc2RightLiverpool will defeat Newcastle tonight.
26192011-05-012012-12-16Jessica Hartany3RightChina will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong
26202011-05-012011-06-01minhduc1RightBarcelona will win the 2010-2011 La Liga title .
26212011-05-012011-05-01minhduc2WrongThe result of the match between Arsenal and Man United will be a draw.
26222011-05-012011-07-01minhduc4WrongGaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months.
26232011-05-012011-05-01minhduc1RightI will get up at 7.30 am tomorrow.
26242011-05-012011-05-03minhduc1RightNext tuesday, at least one member in my group will not come before 6pm.
26292011-05-012011-06-12gwern1WrongBitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks --cjb
26302011-05-022012-04-01gwern1Wrong_Evangelion_ manga: Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas
26322011-05-032011-05-07gwern1Wrong PatrickRobotham write >=500 words on cantor set searches in Haskell
26332011-05-032011-06-03DavidPercival3WrongThere will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month.
26382011-05-042011-07-04minhduc10WrongBin Laden is still alive!
26422011-05-072011-07-07DavidPercival3WrongTottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season.
26432011-05-072011-06-07DavidPercival2WrongThere will be a terrorist attack in the USA in the next month.
26442011-05-072011-05-09minhduc2RightLiverpool will win Fulham tomorrow
26452011-05-072011-05-08minhduc2WrongChelsea will win Manchester United.
26462011-05-072011-05-28minhduc3WrongChelsea will get the Premier League title this season.
26492011-05-072011-06-16wael4WrongEgypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel
26502011-05-082011-07-08Sandra Åhlén1WrongThe unidentified object in Stockholms archipelago was a submarine
26512011-05-082011-05-22gwern3Wrong"...in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” --Haubert/Brown
26522011-05-082011-10-22gwern12Wrong“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” --Haubert/Brown
26532011-05-082013-01-01gwern2Wrong_Evangelion 3.0_ will open with a scene that has "something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab"
26542011-05-082013-01-01gwern1Wrong_Evangelion 3.0_: first scene will be flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1
26682011-05-112030-01-01gwern3The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030.
26692011-05-112011-05-16sailoryoon1RightI will finish project management assignment by Monday night.
26702011-05-112011-05-18sailoryoon1WrongI will loose weight 2kg before graduation ceremony
26732011-05-122011-05-12minhduc1RightThere will be no one at home when Im back!
26742011-05-122011-06-30Mel Eclarinal2RightThere will be another natural disaster somewhere in the world before the end of June.
26782011-05-132011-05-14Ben Doherty1RightMore than 5 students will come to my class today
26792011-05-132011-05-14Ben Doherty1Rightmore than 10 students will come to my class today
26802011-05-152011-05-15minhduc2WrongLiverpool will beat Tottenham in Anfield tonight
26812011-05-152011-05-17minhduc1WrongI will finish The City assignment by Tuesday
26822011-05-152011-05-16Sandra Åhlén1WrongSweden will beat Finland in the World Cup final tonight
26832011-05-152011-05-15alvinTng1RightI'll be the earliest for my meeting tomorrow morning.
26842011-05-152011-05-20alvinTng1WrongThe note I bought online will arrive by friday.
26872011-05-162011-05-21DavidPercival2RightMy MRI scan on Friday will cost no more than $290
26902011-05-182011-05-19minhduc2RightPorto will win Braga tonight.
26962011-05-202020-01-16Ben Doherty5There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games.
26972011-05-202012-11-06DavidPercival3RightBarack Obama will be reelected in the next US election.
27012011-05-222195-02-16gwern5'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis
27182011-05-242011-05-24Ben Doherty1RightNo more than 5 of my students will meet today's pin up deadline
27192011-05-252011-05-27Ben Doherty6RightAt 3pm this Friday there will be 5 or fewer projects pinned up.
27202011-05-252011-05-27Ben Doherty5Right5 or fewer students will present and cover all 4 requirements.
27212011-05-252011-05-27Ben Doherty2WrongWe will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Friday.
27222011-05-252011-08-15travis20103RightTiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011
27232011-05-252012-01-01gwern1RightI will finish reading the EML archives by 2012.
27242011-05-262040-01-01gwern4Final _Gerald F. Ford_-class carrier launched by 2040.
27252011-05-262015-01-01gwern3WrongGlobal circumnavigation by solar aircraft
27262011-05-262027-01-01gwern5'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027
27272011-05-262029-01-01gwern5'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029
27282011-05-262021-01-01gwern4'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021
27292011-05-262016-01-01gwern6Wrong"The world's first lunar tourist" by 2016
27302011-05-262014-01-01gwern1Wrong"14 nanometre chips enter mass production" in 2013.
27312011-05-262016-01-01gwern1Wrong'10 nanometre chips enter mass production'
27322011-05-262014-01-01gwern2Wrong'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy'
27332011-05-272021-01-01gwern7'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021
27342011-05-272037-01-01gwern6"Alzheimer's disease is fully curable" by 2037
27352011-05-272019-01-01gwern5Wrong'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019
27362011-05-272011-05-28DavidPercival1WrongMy credit card wil be one of the ones blocked by Westpac after the security breach!
27372011-05-272011-05-28alvinTng1RightThe testing of fire alarm will go off again tomorrow morning.
27382011-05-282013-01-01JoshuaZ2WrongThe discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012.
27392011-05-282011-05-28minhduc2RightAfter the first half, the result of the match between Manchester and Barcelona will be a draw.
27402011-05-282011-05-28minhduc2WrongMessi will not get any goal tonight!
27412011-05-282011-05-29Sandra Åhlén1WrongHernández will score the first goal in the CL final
27422011-05-292011-05-30Ben Doherty2WrongWe will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Monday
27432011-05-292011-05-29Ye1RightI will return all the books from library today.
27442011-05-292013-01-01Eunseo2RightKorea will keep the record as the first ranking of suicide rate till end of 2011.
27452011-05-292011-05-30Eunseo2RightI will finish my time line infographic of floating city formation by tommorrow.
27462011-05-292011-06-15Eunseo5RightI will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation.
27472011-05-292011-05-30Jessica Hartany2WrongVic Steamers will win Monday night's touch footy game.
27482011-05-292011-06-01Jessica Hartany3WrongMy laptop will get fixed by Wednesday.
27492011-05-292011-05-29Ye2RightVettel will win the Monaco Grand Prix.
27502011-05-292011-06-30Jessica Hartany3Rightnevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car - http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/
27512011-05-292030-12-15Jessica Hartany8Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html
27522011-05-292011-05-30Ye1RightIt will rain all day today
27532011-05-312011-06-05Sandra Åhlén2WrongRobin Söderling will win French Open 2011
27542011-05-312011-06-05Sandra Åhlén2WrongDjokovic will win French Open 2011
27552011-05-312011-06-01Sandra Åhlén2WrongSöderling will beat Nadal in the French Open quarter final
27562011-05-312051-05-31nam20015Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years
27652011-06-022011-06-03alvinTng1WrongAt least 3 parcels will arrive this afternoon.
27662011-06-032011-06-06gwern1WrongBitcoin 'hits $22 before monday' --BrideTrollApprentice
27672011-06-042011-06-06Sandra Åhlén2WrongFederer will beat Nadal in the French Open final
27682011-06-042011-06-04Sandra Åhlén2WrongJess will be back in the labs before midnight
27692011-06-042011-06-18Eunseo1RightSandra will win in prediction competition at the end of semester.
27702011-06-042011-07-01gwern6WrongBitcoin >=$100 by July 1 --the-ace
27742011-06-052013-01-01ZrCa2RightThere will be fewer than 64 new comics posted on http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com between 1.6.2011 and 1.1.2013
27752011-06-062012-01-06DavidPercival1WrongAustralian refugees will be processed through Nauru again by the end of 2011.
27762011-06-062012-11-05TheHumanite7RightBarack Obama will win reelection.
27802011-06-072011-06-08Sandra Åhlén1RightZlatan will score at least one goal in tonights Euro2012 qualifier
27852011-06-072056-01-01gwern4'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C'
27862011-06-072041-01-01gwern4'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C'
27872011-06-072021-01-01gwern4'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C'
27882011-06-072055-01-01gwern6'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055
27892011-06-072030-01-01gwern1'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids'
27902011-06-072020-01-01gwern3Wrong'Smart meters in every UK home'
27912011-06-072040-01-01gwern8'The final collapse of the European Union'
27992011-06-092012-06-09gwern1Right'Facebook will have an IPO within 1 year: 40% confidence' --Arthur Breitman
28002011-06-092013-06-07gwern5Right‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ --Arthur Breitman
28012011-06-092016-06-07gwern5Right'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' --Arthur Breitman
28022011-06-092011-06-30Saliency2RightChristine Lagarde will be the next IMF president.
28032011-06-092050-01-01JoshuaZ14Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050.
28042011-06-122011-06-12Ye1WrongI will finish elective assignment tonight
28182011-06-172028-01-01gwern2850% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg
28192011-06-172050-01-01gwern2190% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg
28202011-06-182011-09-18tedks1WithdrawnIn the next 3 months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from end-users of bitcoins who are running the GNU/Linux operating system.
28212011-06-182011-09-18tedks4RightIn the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user's GNU/Linux system being compromised.
28222011-06-182011-12-01niekjetten11WrongGreece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today
28232011-06-192011-09-02bobpage7WrongGreece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC
28272011-06-212012-02-20JoshuaZ19WrongObama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 )
28302011-06-222019-01-01gwern6Wrong"Polygamy is granted legal status in the US."
28312011-06-222019-01-01gwern4Wrong"The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each."
28322011-06-222019-01-01gwern2Wrong"A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia."
28332011-06-222019-01-01gwern4Wrong"Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right."
28382011-06-272041-01-01gwern12P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken
28392011-06-272021-01-01gwern13Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton
28402011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Right' No circuit lower bound of {{1000n}} or better will be proved for SAT.' in 2011 --Lipton
28412011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Wrong'A Computer Scientist will win a Nobel Prize.' --Lipton
28422011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Wrong'The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.' in 2011 --Lipton
28432011-06-272012-01-01gwern2Wrong'Graph Isomorphism will be proved to be reducible to the Graph Reconstruction Problem.' in 2011 --Lipton
28442011-06-272012-01-01gwern3Wrong'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 --Lipton
28452011-06-272012-06-27gwern2WrongGreece will not default on or shave its bondholders. --Stefan Homburg
28462011-06-282013-06-30puya5WrongThe Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan.
28472011-06-282011-08-30puya3WrongMourinho's fear over Barcelona will make him leave Real Madrid in this season.
28482011-06-282014-06-30puya9WrongUTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014.
28552011-06-292011-12-29Michael Stevens2WrongGreek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds
28562011-06-292100-01-01gwern14the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky
28662011-07-022011-09-02Ben Doherty4WrongWe will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months
28712011-07-022011-10-10gwern6WrongHaruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel
28722011-07-022011-10-10gwern2WrongDon Delillo for 2011 Literature Nobel
28732011-07-022011-10-10gwern4WrongPhilip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel
28762011-07-032012-07-03ZrCa6Wrong"You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now." - Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976)
28832011-07-042013-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga.
28872011-07-052011-07-10Sandra Åhlén1RightThe initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $30 a tonne
28882011-07-052011-07-10Sandra Åhlén1RightThe initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $40 a tonne
29052011-07-102061-01-01gwern10By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner
29102011-07-112016-07-11gwern3RightI will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years.
29112011-07-122012-01-01gwern6WrongI will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article.
29202011-07-142013-01-01dakyne8WrongSilver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012.
29212011-07-142011-07-23JoshuaZ3RightThe final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents.
29222011-07-152015-05-01bobpage2WrongFrom May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP.
29232011-07-152011-08-02Sandra Åhlén6RightThe US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2
29262011-07-152016-01-01bobpage3Wrong"We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. - from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet," PayPal President Scott Thompson
29272011-07-162013-01-01dakyne14WrongSpot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012.
29282011-07-172011-08-01gwern2RightMy SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed.
29292011-07-182011-07-27JoshuaZ1RightMy entry will win the GitP 28th PrC contest.
29332011-07-202011-07-25Sandra Åhlén1WrongThomas Voeckler will win Tour de France 2011
29342011-07-202011-07-25Sandra Åhlén1WrongAndy Schleck will win Tour de France 2011
29352011-07-202011-07-25Sandra Åhlén1WrongContador will win Tour de France 2011
29362011-07-202012-11-06Jach10WrongMichele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day
29372011-07-212013-08-01bobpage1WrongI will write programs between January 2013 and July 2013 (inclusive) and do a majority of this programming on a monitor in portrait orientation
29382011-07-212012-03-01bobpage5WrongI will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012
29392011-07-212017-07-01bobpage4RightBetween January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm
29402011-07-212021-01-01gwern11"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan
29412011-07-212051-02-01Konkvistador7By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value.
29502011-07-262011-07-30gwern1WrongMy last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma.
29542011-07-282011-10-31scav18RightA 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year.
29552011-07-282013-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle will buy Spotify
29562011-07-282011-08-06Nic_Smith1RightI will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today.
29572011-07-302011-08-02Sandra Åhlén1RightRBA will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting
29582011-07-302011-09-15bobpage12WrongThe US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15
29592011-08-012011-08-19gwern2RightI will win the LW SRS contest.
29682011-08-032016-01-16papermachine12WrongThe US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season.
29692011-08-042011-09-05bobpage2WrongMyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances
29722011-08-042013-08-04gwern6Wrong"Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years" --Roger Ver
29732011-08-042011-11-01gwern1RightI will be accepted by the Good Judgement Team.
29742011-08-042011-11-01gwern2RightMorendil will be accepted by the Good Jugdgement Team.
29752011-08-052016-08-05papermachine11WrongTerence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years.
29762011-08-052013-01-01bobpage3RightI will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2012
29772011-08-052012-01-01gwern3WrongDow Jones below 10,000 at end of year.
29782011-08-052015-01-01gwern2RightI will complete the Good Judgment Project and be paid the full honorarium.
29792011-08-082013-01-01bobpage2WrongApple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC
29802011-08-082011-09-08gwern3WrongRoger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month.
29812011-08-092013-01-01bobpage4RightI will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC
29822011-08-092012-08-15bobpage8WrongBy default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer.
29872011-08-092012-01-01JoshuaZ1RightThe Dow Jones will be at least 10,000 on January 1st, 2012
29882011-08-092012-09-01JoshuaZ14RightThe Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars.
29892011-08-092012-02-09JoshuaZ6RightThe Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months.
29902011-08-092023-01-01JoshuaZ7The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.
29912011-08-102012-04-01bobpage5RightNext iPad refresh ("iPad 3" or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display
29922011-08-102016-08-10JoshuaZ4In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal.
29992011-08-122046-09-01gwern5" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now"
30002011-08-122011-08-13bobpage2WrongFirefox 6 will build correctly on Windows 7 on my first try (note: FF5 built just fine a few months ago)
30012011-08-132050-01-01gwern5China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC
30022011-08-132050-01-01gwern5US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC
30032011-08-132050-01-01gwern3India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC
30042011-08-132050-01-01gwern9India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC
30052011-08-132050-01-01gwern3Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 --HSBC
30062011-08-132050-01-01gwern5American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC
30072011-08-132050-01-01gwern3Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 --HSBC
30082011-08-132050-01-01gwern4Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies --HSBC
30092011-08-132050-01-01gwern4Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 --HSBC
30102011-08-132013-12-31gwern13Wrong'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' --Intrade
30112011-08-132012-12-31gwern7Wrong'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' --Intrade
30122011-08-132014-12-31gwern13Wrong'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' --Intrade
30132011-08-132017-01-01gwern7WrongRon Paul will be dead by 2017.
30142011-08-132012-08-30gwern3Wrong'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012'
30152011-08-132012-08-30gwern6Wrong"Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30162011-08-132013-01-01gwern12Wrong"Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012" --Intrade
30172011-08-132012-08-30gwern2Wrong"Gary Johnson to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30182011-08-132012-08-30gwern11Wrong"Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30192011-08-132011-12-31gwern1Wrong"Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30202011-08-132012-12-31gwern6Wrong"Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30212011-08-132013-12-31gwern1Right"Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30222011-08-132011-12-31gwern4Wrong"David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30232011-08-132011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30242011-08-132011-08-13gwern1Right"Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll" --Intrade
30252011-08-132012-02-05gwern2Right"Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012" --Intrade
30262011-08-132012-08-30gwern3Wrong"Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012" --Intrade
30272011-08-132013-01-01gwern4Wrong"Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012" --Intrade
30282011-08-132012-02-01gwern3Wrong"Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary" --Intrade
30292011-08-132012-01-28gwern5Wrong"Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary" --Intrade
30302011-08-132013-12-16papermachine1WithdrawnChris Hayes gets his own show on MSNBC before 2014.
30312011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30322011-08-142012-12-31gwern3Wrong"The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30332011-08-142013-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30342011-08-142012-12-31gwern1Wrong"The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30352011-08-142011-12-31gwern1Right"Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30362011-08-142011-09-30gwern2Wrong"Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011"
30372011-08-142011-12-30gwern1Wrong"Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011"
30382011-08-142011-12-31gwern6Wrong"Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30392011-08-142011-12-31gwern5Wrong"Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011"
30402011-08-142011-09-30gwern6Wrong"Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade
30412011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30422011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30432011-08-142012-12-31gwern2Wrong"An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30442011-08-142013-12-31gwern1Wrong"An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30452011-08-142011-09-30gwern3Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade
30462011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30472011-08-142012-06-30gwern2Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012" --Intrade
30482011-08-142012-12-31gwern5Wrong"United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30492011-08-142011-12-30gwern3Wrong"Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30502011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30512011-08-142012-12-31gwern2Wrong"China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30522011-08-142013-12-31gwern6Wrong"China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30532011-08-142011-12-31gwern5Wrong"Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30542011-08-142011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30552011-08-142011-12-31gwern4Wrong"Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30562011-08-142012-12-31gwern5Wrong"Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30572011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30582011-08-142014-12-31gwern6Wrong"Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014" --Intrade
30592011-08-142011-12-31gwern1Wrong"Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30602011-08-142012-12-31gwern3Wrong"Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30612011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30622011-08-142011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30632011-08-142012-12-31gwern3Wrong"Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30642011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30652011-08-142011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30662011-08-142012-12-31gwern2Wrong"Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30672011-08-142013-12-31gwern2Wrong"Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30682011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30692011-08-142012-12-31gwern4Wrong"Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30702011-08-142013-12-31gwern3Wrong"Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30712011-08-142011-12-31gwern14Wrong"Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30722011-08-142012-12-31gwern9Wrong"Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
30732011-08-142013-12-31gwern11Wrong"Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013" --Intrade
30742011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30752011-08-142011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30762011-08-142012-01-07gwern2Wrong"Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher" --Intrade
30772011-08-142012-01-03gwern2Wrong"125 or more US banks to fail during 2011" --Intrade
30782011-08-162011-12-31gwern3Wrong"Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30792011-08-162011-09-01gwern3Right"Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011" --Intrade
30802011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong"Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30812011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Right"Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30822011-08-162012-01-01gwern1Right"United States GDP growth for Q2 of 2011 will be positive" --Intrade
30832011-08-162011-08-31gwern4Wrong"Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011" --Intrade
30842011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong"The US Economy will go into Recession during 2011" --Intrade
30852011-08-162012-01-01gwern1Wrong"Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1600 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30862011-08-162012-01-01gwern2Wrong"Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011" --Intrade
30872011-08-162011-12-31Emanuel Rylke7WrongGoogle will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012
30882011-08-162045-01-01JoshuaZ7Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045
30892011-08-162014-01-01JoshuaZ2RightHarry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013
30902011-08-162012-11-05cmessinger10RightObama will be elected President in 2012
30952011-08-172012-11-06Alexander Kruel2RightObama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012.
30962011-08-172030-01-01Alexander Kruel19Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030
30972011-08-172030-01-01Alexander Kruel10By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.
30982011-08-172013-08-17Alexander Kruel11WrongI will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013.
30992011-08-172012-01-01Alexander Kruel7WrongSyrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011.
31032011-08-182012-12-16Jach8RightThe Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King
31042011-08-182012-12-16Jach3RightSecond edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012
31052011-08-182013-10-16Jach4WrongNintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones
31062011-08-182016-10-16Jach10WrongClojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub
31092011-08-182016-01-01JoshuaZ2WrongThe James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015
31102011-08-182020-01-01JoshuaZ5WrongThe James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019
31132011-08-182011-12-01JoshuaZ2WrongThe kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn
31172011-08-182020-01-01JoshuaZ7RightThe Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020.
31182011-08-182011-08-18u_1Rightcousin_it is the other vladimir
31192011-08-182012-01-16Jach3RightI will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800
31202011-08-202012-08-20gwern10WrongGoogle+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year.
31212011-08-202012-08-20gwern3WrongGoogle+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign.
31242011-08-202011-08-27gwern1WrongEither of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest
31252011-08-202021-08-20gwern11"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen
31282011-08-222014-01-01gwern9WrongA Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon.
31292011-08-222013-08-22Michael Stevens3RightNokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years
31302011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was one of the 6 named billionaires.
31312011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi.
31322011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was Bezos.
31332011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was Peter Thiel.
31342011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongDarwin's employer was Charles Simonyi
31352011-08-232012-02-01gwern1Wrong'I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.' --Robert X Cringely
31362011-08-232013-06-01gwern5Wrong"When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU." --Robert X Cringely
31372011-08-232012-06-01gwern4Wrong"I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis." --Robert X Cringely
31382011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 1
31392011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 2
31402011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 3
31412011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 5
31422011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 6
31432011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 8
31442011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 9
31452011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 10
31462011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 11
31472011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 12
31482011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 13
31492011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 14
31502011-08-232011-08-23gwern1WrongAdderall: day 15
31512011-08-232011-08-23gwern1RightAdderall: day 16
31542011-08-242012-01-01gwern1Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31552011-08-242012-01-01gwern3Wrong"Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31562011-08-242011-10-10gwern4Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011" --Intrade
31572011-08-242012-03-31gwern7Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012" --Intrade
31582011-08-242012-07-01gwern3Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012" --Intrade
31592011-08-242012-10-01gwern8Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012" --Intrade
31602011-08-242013-01-01gwern2Wrong"USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" --Intrade
31612011-08-242012-01-01gwern3Right"Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31642011-08-242011-08-25bobpage5WrongA scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC
31652011-08-242012-01-01gwern2Wrong"Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
31662011-08-242019-01-01gwern6Wrong"Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31672011-08-242019-01-01gwern3Wrong"John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court"
31682011-08-242012-01-01bobpage1WrongI will be the primary developer of an app in Apple's iOS App Store, where such app is published and publicly available before 2012-01-01 UTC
31692011-08-242019-01-01gwern3Wrong"Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31702011-08-242019-01-01gwern4Wrong"Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31712011-08-242017-01-02gwern6Right"Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court"
31722011-08-242019-01-01gwern5Right"Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31732011-08-242019-01-01gwern5Wrong"Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31742011-08-242019-01-01gwern4Wrong"Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court" --Intrade
31752011-08-242014-01-01bobpage2WrongBetween 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard
31762011-08-242013-01-01bobpage2RightI will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC
31772011-08-242014-01-01bobpage2RightI will burn any kind of optical disc between 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC
31782011-08-242015-01-01bobpage2RightI will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC
31792011-08-242013-01-01bobpage6WrongBitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC
31802011-08-242012-01-01bobpage5WrongI will watch all 26 episodes of Gantz before 2012-01-01 UTC
31812011-08-242013-01-01bobpage14Rightgwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC)
31842011-08-252011-08-28bobpage2RightMy DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part
31852011-08-252011-09-02bobpage1WithdrawnEveryDNS will stop responding to DNS requests before 2011-09-02 00:00 UTC
31862011-08-262011-09-30JoshuaZ3RightThere will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101.
31872011-08-262011-09-01JoshuaZ2RightMy apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene.
31882011-08-272011-08-30gwern1WrongMy house will lose power when Hurricane Irene hits.
31892011-08-272011-08-30gwern2WrongMy house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits.
31902011-08-282013-06-01gwern6Wrong2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP --Michael Pettis
31912011-08-282013-01-01gwern2Right"Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next." --Michael Pettis
31922011-08-282015-01-01gwern4Right2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% --Michael Pettis
31932011-08-282020-01-01gwern4Wrong"[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade" --Michael Pettis
31942011-08-282013-01-01gwern2Wrong2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% --Michael Pettis
31952011-08-282020-01-01gwern8WrongSpain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro --Michael Pettis
31962011-08-282017-01-01gwern3Wrong2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth --Michael Pettis
31972011-08-292012-03-15JoshuaZ6RightI will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74.
32002011-08-292013-01-01gwern6Wrong"Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?" --Intrade
32012011-08-292011-11-01Øx8WrongAnderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show.
32022011-08-292012-03-01Øx7WrongLady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE.
32032011-08-292011-12-01Øx5WrongObama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project.
32042011-08-292012-01-01Øx6WrongMadonna's new movie "W.E." will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes
32052011-08-292011-09-18Øx5Wrong"Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star" will get an average critic's rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com
32112011-08-312030-01-01JoshuaZ5RightBefore January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm.
32122011-08-312045-01-01JoshuaZ9RightBefore January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm.
32132011-08-312020-01-01JoshuaZ4RightBefore January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm.
32142011-09-012011-10-01gwern1Wrongamigojapan on #lesswrong will translate a paragraph of the Anno _Toprunner_ show for me.
32152011-09-012011-10-01gwern8WrongI will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive
32162011-09-012011-09-04gwern5WrongI will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday
32172011-09-012012-07-01gwern1RightThe new exchange student from Sweden will last out the full school year.
32182011-09-012013-01-01bobpage5WrongI will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC
32192011-09-022031-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.
32202011-09-022020-01-01JoshuaZ5WrongBy 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
32212011-09-022025-01-01JoshuaZ5By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
32222011-09-022035-01-01JoshuaZ12By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
32232011-09-022018-01-01JoshuaZ5WrongBy 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct.
32242011-09-032012-09-03Sandra Åhlén7WrongUsain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics
32252011-09-032015-09-03JoshuaZ2WrongFlorian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent.
32262011-09-042013-01-01JoshuaZ4WrongBy the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst.
32272011-09-042012-01-15Laurent Bossavit4WrongAn e-reader device incorporating an "electrowetting" display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show.
32282011-09-042012-02-01gwern2WrongLW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme.
32312011-09-042012-09-04JoshuaZ7RightThe "Counterexamples to Relativity" page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year
32322011-09-042012-09-04JoshuaZ11RightThe Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin
32332011-09-042012-09-04JoshuaZ4RightPZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year.
32342011-09-042011-12-01JoshuaZ5RightBefore December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB
32352011-09-042020-01-01JoshuaZ32RightNo nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)
32362011-09-042015-11-01ArisKatsaris22Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black
32372011-09-042015-11-02ArisKatsaris21Right_HP MoR_: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death.
32402011-09-052011-09-30gwern4Wrong"Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011" (excluding death) --Intrade
32412011-09-062012-08-01gwern7Wrong(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012.
32422011-09-062011-12-31gwern2Wrong"Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
32432011-09-062012-12-31gwern11RightGJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012
32442011-09-062011-12-31gwern6Wrong"King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011" --Intrade
32452011-09-062012-03-01gwern10RightGJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012
32462011-09-062012-05-06gwern8WrongNicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 --Intrade
32472011-09-072012-12-31gwern4WrongGJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012
32482011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1001: Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011?
32492011-09-072012-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1002: Who will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012? (a) Medvedev
32502011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1003: Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011?
32512011-09-072011-09-29gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1004: Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by 30 September 2011?
32522011-09-072011-12-30gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1005: Will Daniel Ortega win another term as President of Nicaragua during the late 2011 elections?
32532011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011?
32542011-09-072011-12-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011?
32552011-09-072011-12-30gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1008: By 31 December 2011, will the World Trade Organization General Council or Ministerial Conference approve the "accession package" for WTO membership for Russia?
32562011-09-072011-12-31gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq?
32572011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1010: Will the 30 Sept 2011 “last” PPB for Nov 2011 Brent Crude oil futures* exceed $115?
32582011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1011: Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading at or above 9,500 on 30 September 2011?
32592011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1012: Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 October 2011?
32602011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1013: Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1850 on 30 September 2011 (10am ET)?
32612011-09-072011-09-30gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1014: Who will win the September 2011 Guatemalan presidential election, or will a run-off be needed? (c) Other or Run-Off
32622011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1015: Will Israel's ambassador be formally invited to return to Turkey by 30 September 2011?
32632011-09-072011-10-11gwern1RightGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1016: Will PM Donald Tusk's Civic Platform Party win more seats than any other party in the October 2011 Polish parliamentary elections?
32642011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1017: Will Robert Mugabe cease to be President of Zimbabwe by 30 September 2011?
32652011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WrongGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1018: Will Muqtada al-Sadr formally support for the current Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki by 30 September 2011?
32662011-09-072011-09-30gwern1WithdrawnGJP: September 2011 Questions: #1019: Will Ali Abdullah Saleh cease to be Yemen's head of government by 30 September 2011?
32712011-09-072015-01-01gwern2RightNGE: There will not be a live-action _Evangelion_ movie before 2015
32722011-09-072020-01-01gwern5RightNGE: There will not be a live-action _Evangelion_ movie before 2020
32732011-09-072012-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: Rebuild 3.0 will be released in 2011
32742011-09-072013-01-01gwern4RightNGE: 3.0 will be released in 2012
32752011-09-072014-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: 3.0 will be released in 2013
32762011-09-072015-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: 3.0 will be released in 2014
32772011-09-072013-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012
32782011-09-072014-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2013
32792011-09-072015-01-01gwern3WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2014
32802011-09-072016-01-01gwern2WrongNGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015
32812011-09-072018-01-01gwern2NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing _Rebuild_.
32822011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Hideaki Anno will return to employment at Gainax after _Rebuild_.
32832011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after _Rebuild_.
32842011-09-072018-01-01gwern3NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation
32852011-09-072020-01-03gwern7NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild
32862011-09-072012-03-01gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts
32872011-09-072012-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: 3.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Die"
32882011-09-072012-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: 3.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Be Replaced"
32892011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0.
32902011-09-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: 3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes
32912011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes
32922011-09-072016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes
32932011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoE
32942011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as the NGE64 variant of EoE
32952011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild
32962011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoTV
32972011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last A
32982011-09-072013-07-26gwern1WrongNGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last B
32992011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV
33002011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped
33012011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated
33022011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato
33032011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu
33042011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE
33052011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji
33062011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka
33072011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work
33082011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoE
33092011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV
33102011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop)
33112011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense
33122011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character)
33132011-09-072018-01-01gwern2NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE
33142011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless
33152011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: 3.0 or 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji's heroism in _2.0_ and reveal it to be a sham _a la_ Norman Spinrad's _The Iron Dream_
33162011-09-072013-01-01gwern1WithdrawnNGE: The four Children mentioned in the 3.0 preview turn out to be: Shinji, Mari, Kaworu and Asuka
33172011-09-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in _3.0_ to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power.
33182011-09-072018-01-01gwern1NGE: The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild.
33212011-09-082011-09-15gwern1RightOB-NYC: Zvi Mowshowitz asked that question of Salience because he hated _Valhalla Rising_.
33402011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Asuka is (was) a genetically modified human
33412011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka
33422011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Lorenz Keel is the Pope
33432011-09-092013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0
33442011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0
33452011-09-092011-09-13gwern5WrongHP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 *before* 7PM PST 13 September 2011
33462011-09-092013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE: Touji will pilot an Eva in 3.0
33472011-09-092018-01-01gwern1NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing
33512011-09-092011-09-16gwern2WrongMy email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error.
33522011-09-092011-09-10bobpage3RightI will fix the bug that caused the broken HTML in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2856 today
33532011-09-102011-09-11bobpage4WrongI will find and contact the real recipient of a Fedex package that was incorrectly delivered to my address
33542011-09-102052-01-01bobpage5Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052
33552011-09-102011-09-12bobpage8WrongThere will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq.
33562011-09-102013-01-01bobpage2WithdrawnBitcoinica will be hacked before 2013, resulting in at least partial loss of funds (whether or not customers are affected).
33572011-09-112012-09-11gwern2WrongSteel_ will have a custom capping business (specify a nootropic mix and have it delivered to you) running in a year.
33582011-09-112041-01-01gwern11A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.
33592011-09-112021-09-10gwern20A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021
33672011-09-132020-01-01Gedusa7RightThe personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020.
33682011-09-132011-09-30gwern4WrongBitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily
33692011-09-132012-01-01Gedusa3WrongGreece will leave the European Union by 2012
33762011-09-142012-03-14Will Newsome4WrongSteve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months.
33772011-09-142051-09-15Will Newsome23Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.
33802011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Rebuild Kaworu's body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA)
33812011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood
33822011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died
33832011-09-142018-01-01gwern1NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact
34172011-09-192012-01-15JoshuaZ7WrongSpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012
34182011-09-192013-10-16papermachine5WrongThe Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done.
34192011-09-192011-11-24gwern7WrongUS Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011
34222011-09-202021-09-16papermachine11In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).
34242011-09-212013-09-20JoshuaZ4RightSouthern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years.
34272011-09-212020-01-01JoshuaZ8WrongBy 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks.
34282011-09-212041-09-21JoshuaZ7No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )
34312011-09-222011-12-22JoshuaZ46WrongRecent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months.
34322011-09-232012-09-23gwern38Right'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year'
34332011-09-242011-10-25bobpage4WrongThe Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25
34342011-09-242031-09-24Will Newsome6The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app
34762011-09-252023-01-01gwern12Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023
34772011-09-252013-01-01gwern3RightNintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U
34782011-09-252040-01-01gwern7"By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking."
34792011-09-252017-01-01gwern3Wrong"The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out."
34802011-09-252050-01-01gwern4"The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy."
34812011-09-252030-01-01gwern4"Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service"
34822011-09-252017-01-01gwern2Wrong'Completion of the i5K project' by 2017
34832011-09-252012-04-17gwern3WrongThe ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule.
34842011-09-252014-01-01gwern3RightThe Gaia mission will launch in 2013
34852011-09-252015-01-01gwern4Right'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America)
34862011-09-252016-01-01gwern3WrongMasdar City phase 1 complete
34872011-09-252015-09-10gwern27Right'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history'
34882011-09-252017-01-01gwern9WrongIndia's first manned spaceflight by 2017.
34892011-09-252017-01-01gwern4Wrong'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016
34902011-09-252016-01-01gwern5Wrong'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription
34912011-09-252017-01-01gwern4WrongApple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017
34922011-09-252018-01-01gwern3RightM1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018
34932011-09-252018-01-01gwern8Wrong'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon'
34942011-09-252018-01-01gwern4Wrong'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010)
35012011-09-262018-01-01gwern3Wrong'India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam' in 2017.
35022011-09-262018-01-01gwern2Wrong'The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed' in 2017
35032011-09-262019-01-01gwern4Wrong'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018
35042011-09-262018-01-01gwern5Wrong'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017
35052011-09-262018-01-01gwern4Wrong'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017
35062011-09-262012-03-26Laurablack2WrongUbs will sell off its investment arm
35072011-09-262011-12-01Laurablack5RightVettel to win f1 championship
35082011-09-272013-09-27JoshuaZ4RightWithin two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails.
35122011-09-302011-10-07gwern1WrongPatrick Macias will reply within a week.
35152011-10-012011-10-15Isaac3WrongMy next full practice SAT score will be over 2050
35162011-10-012015-01-16Isaac2WrongSweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015
35172011-10-012020-11-16Isaac3A new US Political party will come to power by 2020
35182011-10-012012-02-15Isaac2RightMy practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January
35482011-10-042011-11-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1020 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011?
35492011-10-042011-11-02gwern1RightGJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011?
35502011-10-042011-10-08gwern1WrongGJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?'
35512011-10-042011-11-02gwern1RightGJP: #1023 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011?
35522011-10-042012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1024 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal?
35532011-10-042012-01-01gwern1RightGJP: #1025 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’b) election in post-Mubarak Egypt?
35542011-10-042012-02-01gwern1RightGJP: #1026 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012?
35552011-10-042012-02-01gwern1RightGJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT)
35562011-10-042011-12-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1028 Will Moody’s issue a new downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of the Government of Greece between 3 October 2011 and 30 November 2011?
35572011-10-042011-11-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1029 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011?
35582011-10-042011-11-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1030 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011?
35592011-10-042011-11-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1031 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan?
35602011-10-042011-12-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1032 Will the Japanese government formally announce the decision to buy at least 40 new jet fighters by 30 November 2011?
35612011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved
35622011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I
35632011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel.
35642011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology
35652011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu)
35662011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece
35672011-10-042018-01-01gwern3NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life
35682011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV)
35692011-10-042016-01-01gwern1RightNGE Rebuild: The entity in Terminal Dogma is still Lilith (of NGE TV) in some sense
35702011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: "Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally."
35712011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later
35722011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: There will be no 3rd Impact.
35732011-10-042013-01-01gwern1RightNGE Rebuild: 3.0 will open in the beginning/middle of an Angel attack a la 2.0
35742011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality)
35752011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide
35762011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head
35772011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge
35782011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again)
35792011-10-042012-09-13bobpage6WrongiPhone 5 (not "4S") will launch Sprint-only in the US
35802011-10-042011-10-11Gedusa10RightThere will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th.
35812011-10-042011-11-04gwern5RightLW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month.
35822011-10-042014-10-04gwern25WrongEliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years.
35832011-10-042014-10-04realitygrill1WithdrawnEliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years.
35842011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill an Angel
35852011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill a kitten
35862011-10-042016-01-01gwern1RightNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity
35872011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide
35882011-10-042016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed
35892011-10-042016-01-01gwern2WrongNGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to "Kaworu Nagisanami"
35902011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense
35912011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point
35922011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity
35932011-10-042013-01-01gwern2WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0
35942011-10-042013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0
35952011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo
35962011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand
35972011-10-042013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0
35982011-10-042013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it.
35992011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato
36002011-10-042018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen
36012011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael
36022011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does
36032011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato
36042011-10-042018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms
36052011-10-042011-10-12Robert Kosten2WrongGoogle & Samsung will announce the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich at CTIA on 2011-10-11
36062011-10-052021-01-01roxton4When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin.
36162011-10-062013-01-01gwern7WrongSteve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity
36172011-10-062013-01-01gwern6RightSteve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity
36182011-10-062011-10-13gwern1RightGiveWell will accept me as a volunteer.
36222011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending
36232011-10-072016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE manga: Sadamoto's manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji
36242011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings
36252011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect
36262011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0
36272011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in 3.0 preview)
36282011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones
36292011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality
36302011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending
36312011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji
36322011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss
36332011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV)
36342011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime)
36352011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka
36362011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch
36372011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0
36382011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted
36392011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major
36402011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation.
36412011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's _2.0_ flashback
36422011-10-072013-01-01gwern3WrongNGE Rebuild: Asuka will have more screentime in _3.0_ than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her)
36432011-10-072061-10-07JoshuaZ12Chess will be a solved game in 50 years
36442011-10-072061-10-07JoshuaZ9Go will not be solved in the next fifty years.
36452011-10-072016-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Asuka will appear little after _2.0_ and have an unimportant off-screen death
36462011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: _3.0_ Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself "Asuka Langley Soryu"
36472011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of
36482011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight
36492011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji
36502011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid
36512011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over
36522011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her
36532011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing
36542011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la _Re-Take_ (not a human-angel hybrid)
36552011-10-072018-01-01gwern2NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo
36562011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending
36572011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0
36582011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point
36592011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?'
36602011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages
36612011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Mari will attend school as a regular student
36622011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else
36632011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi
36642011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid
36652011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid
36662011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva
36672011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07
36682011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia
36692011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one
36702011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense
36712011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley
36722011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half
36732011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse
36742011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji
36752011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE
36762011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE
36772011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group
36782011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans
36792011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo
36802011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch
36812011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in _3.0_ or _4.0_
36822011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka
36832011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV
36842011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01
36852011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji
36862011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07
36872011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08
36882011-10-072013-01-01gwern2RightNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready
36892011-10-072013-01-01gwern2RightNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva
36902011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be nonoperational
36912011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be scrapped
36922011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning
36932011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: In _3.0_, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari
36942011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel
36952011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam
36962011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka
36972011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji
36982011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari
36992011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei
37002011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from _Girlfriend of Steel_
37012011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi
37022011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense
37032011-10-072013-01-01gwern1WrongNGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in _3.0_
37042011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in _4.0_
37052011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat
37062011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed
37072011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith
37082011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei
37092011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva
37102011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03
37112011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot
37122011-10-072018-01-01gwern1NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in _1.0_ or _2.0_
37132011-10-072011-10-22gwern10WrongHarold Camping: "the whole world...will be annihilated together with the whole physical world"
37142011-10-072011-10-13gwern6Wrong'I predict...a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba'
37152011-10-072012-04-01gwern9Wrongthe Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all.
37162011-10-072020-01-01bobpage26Wrong"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."
37172011-10-072021-01-01gwern13". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King
37182011-10-072015-01-01gwern5Wrong"No American Soap Operas by 2015" --Ken
37192011-10-072020-01-01gwern15Wrong"I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company" --Whutsiznaim
37202011-10-072020-01-01gwern1Withdrawn"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." --chinapatriot
37212011-10-082011-10-12Sandra Åhlén2RightSweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up
37222011-10-082011-11-16Sandra Åhlén1WrongSweden will qualify for Euro 2012 after play-offs
37232011-10-082013-06-13gwern6Right"About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008." --Kevin Kelly
37312011-10-082012-10-01Kaj_Sotala4WrongBy 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people.
37322011-10-082014-01-01Kaj_Sotala6WrongI will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013.
37332011-10-082014-01-01Kaj_Sotala6WrongI will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013.
37502011-10-092026-10-09anandjeyahar12WrongCERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light.
37512011-10-092011-11-08chemotaxis1013WrongBy november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application.
37532011-10-092014-12-31chemotaxis1013WrongI will have completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering by the end of 2014.
37542011-10-092012-11-07chemotaxis10116WrongThird-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election.
37552011-10-092013-01-01bobpage7WrongBefore 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org
37632011-10-102011-10-14Ben Doherty1WrongI will record a sub 20 minute time in the first ABC bi that I do http://goo.gl/BCmJt
37642011-10-102012-03-30Ben Doherty1WrongI will record a sub 20 minute time in any ABC bi that I do this season - http://goo.gl/BCmJt
37762011-10-102011-11-30JoshuaZ1WrongIn Sanderson's "Allow of Law" it will turn out that either Marasi or Steris is (or becomes) a full Mistborn or a full Feruchemist.
37772011-10-102060-01-01bobpage19Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060
37782011-10-102060-01-01bobpage8Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060
37792011-10-102036-10-10JoshuaZ10Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years.
37842011-10-102012-12-22Daniel Mehkeri43RightThe world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end)
37912011-10-112011-10-11Jayson Virissimo2RightA PredictionBook Wikipedia page will be created within the next 30 minutes.
37922011-10-112011-10-26JoshuaZ4RightThe Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks.
37932011-10-112011-11-11JoshuaZ5RightThe Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month.
37942011-10-112012-07-01Jayson Virissimo4Right"Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012."
37952011-10-112013-07-01Jayson Virissimo6Right"S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating."
37962011-10-112012-01-01Jayson Virissimo8WrongAverage global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010.
37972011-10-112013-01-01Jayson Virissimo8RightAverage global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011.
37982011-10-112012-10-11gwern4RightThe PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year.
37992011-10-112013-10-11gwern4RightThe PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years.
38002011-10-112011-10-12chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com1WrongTristan's teacher will report that Tristan is unhappy today. He may or may not talk about having to move.
38012011-10-112011-10-12bobpage1RightCritical Windows updates will be released today (UTC)
38062011-10-122011-10-31Codyz2WrongBMNDR will nontrivially improve my study habits by October 31st.
38112011-10-122011-10-13gwern1WrongMy Modalert will arrive today.
38122011-10-122011-10-14gwern1WrongMy Modalert will arrive tomorrow.
38132011-10-122011-10-15gwern1WrongMy Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow.
38142011-10-122011-12-01bobpage4WrongChrome will ship with the initial release of Android "Ice Cream Sandwich"
38152011-10-122012-12-01bobpage2RightChrome will ship with the first public release of Android "Jelly Bean" (or whatever the major version after "Ice Cream Sandwich" is called)
38162011-10-122012-12-01bobpage4RightThe initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes
38172011-10-122011-10-13Jayson Virissimo1RightI will feel sick again when I donate blood today.
38362011-10-132012-01-01gwern2WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2011
38372011-10-132013-01-01gwern2RightGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2012
38382011-10-132014-01-01gwern2WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2013
38392011-10-132015-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2014
38402011-10-132016-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2015
38412011-10-132017-01-01gwern1WrongGoogle Knol will be shutdown in 2016
38422011-10-132011-10-20Codyz1RightThe Texas Rangers will win the ALCS
38472011-10-152025-01-01JoshuaZ15By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38482011-10-152035-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38492011-10-152045-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38522011-10-152035-01-01JoshuaZ7By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38532011-10-152045-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38542011-10-152055-01-01JoshuaZ4By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
38552011-10-152055-01-01JoshuaZ4By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38562011-10-152026-01-01JoshuaZ6By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.
38572011-10-152065-01-01JoshuaZ7By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38582011-10-152075-01-01JoshuaZ4By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.
38592011-10-152034-01-01JoshuaZ9By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.
38602011-10-152011-12-25JoshuaZ6WrongFobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011.
38612011-10-152020-03-01JoshuaZ6WrongFobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020
38622011-10-162011-10-16bobpage1RightD will call me back today
38632011-10-162011-10-16bobpage1WrongD will visit me today
38752011-10-172011-10-18Isaac4WrongI will go to the gym tomorrow
38762011-10-172011-10-22Isaac3WrongI will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday
38772011-10-172019-01-01JoshuaZ6WrongReservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019
38782011-10-172025-01-01JoshuaZ13Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025
38852011-10-172011-10-17Isaac1WrongI will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes
38862011-10-172012-12-16Nieskens6WrongApple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo.
38892011-10-182011-10-23Arkanj3l3WrongI will "flatline", i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence.
38902011-10-182011-10-21Arkanj3l3WrongMy penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days.
38972011-10-192011-11-30JoshuaZ6RightNo human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry.
38982011-10-192011-11-03JoshuaZ3RightROSAT will reenter by November 2
38992011-10-192012-02-05Jayson Virissimo11Wrong"Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012" -Intrade
39002011-10-192011-10-26Jayson Virissimo2RightI will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days.
39012011-10-192011-10-21beo_shaffer3WrongThe discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/'s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday
39022011-10-192011-11-15JoshuaZ3RightROSAT will reenter by November 15
39032011-10-192100-01-01bobpage8At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.
39042011-10-202012-04-01gwern7WrongMoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox
39082011-10-202011-10-20siodine3WrongSomeone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook.
39092011-10-202012-01-31Arkanj3l12WrongI will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012.
39402011-10-212011-10-22divad121RightI will sleep at 2 am (in bed) for waking up at 9:10 am on Saturday.
39412011-10-212011-10-22divad123Righti will use prediction book tomorrow
39512011-10-212011-10-29Jayson Virissimo2WrongMy average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week.
39522011-10-212070-01-01bobpage13Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.
39532011-10-212012-10-21JMArchitect4WrongLast.fm will become intertwined with Facebook, and take the spotlight away from Spotify.
39542011-10-212013-10-21bobpage4WrongKonkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea
39582011-10-222012-08-01sdenheyer5WrongThe TV show "Grimm" will be canceled in it's first season.
39592011-10-222012-08-01sdenheyer2WrongThe show "Once Upon a Time" will be canceled within it's first season.
39652011-10-222013-01-01bobpage3WrongApple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013.
39662011-10-222011-10-23divad121WrongI will sleep at 1 am tonight.
39672011-10-222050-01-01gwern4Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties.
39682011-10-222050-01-01gwern4Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India.
39692011-10-222050-01-01gwern4Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula.
39702011-10-222050-01-01gwern4Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan.
39732011-10-232011-11-25Jach2RightLoZ: Skyward Sword will receive an IGN score of 9.8/10 or higher
39762011-10-232011-11-23torekp14RightOccupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days.
39772011-10-232021-10-23gwern3econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated
39782011-10-232012-01-01bobpage6WrongBefore 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both)
39952011-10-242012-10-31dhoe5RightDutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012
40122011-10-252011-10-26divad121WrongLaunch my KA proficiency model change by the end of today (Oct. 25).
40202011-10-262012-02-01Jayson Virissimo4Wrong"iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012" -ipredict
40212011-10-262015-01-01Jayson Virissimo3Wrong"Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014" -intrade
40222011-10-262011-10-27Jayson Virissimo4RightErik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today.
40232011-10-262012-01-01muflax2WrongAmazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2011.
40242011-10-262013-01-01muflax2RightAmazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012.
40252011-10-262014-01-01muflax3WrongNon-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store.
40262011-10-262011-12-18muflax3RightDexter season 6: Prof. Gellar is a hallucination, similar to Dexter's dad.
40272011-10-262011-12-18muflax1WrongDexter season 6: lab girl is more than a thief.
40282011-10-262011-12-18muflax1WrongDexter season 6: lab girl is a serial killer.
40292011-10-262011-12-18muflax1WrongDexter season 6: lab girl is (specifically) a Dexter fangirl.
40302011-10-262011-12-18muflax1WrongDexter season 6: Travis Marshall is not the final villain.
40312011-10-262011-12-18muflax1RightDexter season 6: Brother Sam dies.
40322011-10-262011-12-18muflax1WrongDexter season 6: Brother Sam deconverts.
40332011-10-262013-01-01muflax5WrongLuke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012.
40342011-10-262013-01-01muflax3RightLW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success.
40352011-10-262013-01-01muflax2WrongLW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up.
40362011-10-262014-01-01muflax3WrongAt least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013.
40372011-10-262013-01-01muflax1WithdrawnThere will be a new (upvoted) argument against wireheading on LW until 2013.
40382011-10-262012-01-01muflax1WrongI will publish another article on my site this year.
40392011-10-262012-01-01muflax3WrongOwen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year.
40462011-10-272013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1Wrong"Lamborghini to announce, before 2013, commercial production of a four door vehicle" -ipredict
40472011-10-272013-01-01Jayson Virissimo3Right"Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012" -ipredict
40482011-10-272011-10-27bobpage1Wrongiqtest.dk will give me a higher score when I don't answer any questions
40522011-10-282012-10-28Jayson Virissimo1RightI will average at least one prediction per week on PredictionBook for the next year.
40532011-10-282011-11-25Jayson Virissimo4WrongI will read "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks.
40542011-10-282011-11-05Metus1WrongThree people will join this prediction until friday.
40552011-10-282011-11-05Metus3WrongFive people will join this prediction until friday.
40562011-10-282011-11-05Metus3WrongThe people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average.
40572011-10-282011-11-05Metus7WrongThe average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday.
40602011-10-292012-03-01gsaines1WithdrawnThe Skritter iOS app will make at least $5,000,000 in the first year after launch.
40922011-10-302011-11-20Isaac2WrongI will get over a 90 on all 3 of my upcoming tests this week (Math, Biology, US History)
40932011-10-302011-11-13Isaac1RightI will get over a 79 on my Biology test
41032011-10-312013-01-01bobpage4WrongI will write a 300+ line Clojure/ClojureScript program before 2013
41042011-10-312013-01-01bobpage3RightI will use org-mode at least 180/365 days in 2012
41052011-10-312012-01-01bobpage2RightI will read at least a third of Getting Things Done before 2012
41062011-10-312013-01-01bobpage1WrongI will buy a MacBook Air before 2013
41072011-10-312013-01-01bobpage3WrongI will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013
41122011-10-312013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013.
41132011-10-312011-11-14Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days.
41232011-10-312014-06-08gwern9WrongA complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% --David Dalrymple
41242011-10-312020-01-01gwern4WrongA complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% --David Dalrymple
41252011-10-312014-01-01gwern2WrongNext 3 Turing Award winners will be a subset of Shor/Herlihy/Stallman/Szegedy/Dally --kenjackson
41282011-11-012012-01-01muflax13RightLW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145.
41382011-11-022021-11-01NathanMcKnight3Holographic television will be widely available by 2021.
41392011-11-022012-11-07NathanMcKnight9RightBarack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election.
41402011-11-022111-11-02steve1interstock10The "technological singularity" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.
41412011-11-022017-01-01NathanMcKnight18WithdrawnEvidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017.
41422011-11-022012-11-16montsamu1WithdrawnBarack Obama will be re-elected president of the United States.
41432011-11-022012-11-11MuscleCBT18WrongPresident Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate.
41442011-11-022014-11-02Fledi13WrongThe EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011.
41452011-11-022014-09-09lionflower12WrongObama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016.
41482011-11-032011-12-03muflax3RightI will still use Beeminder in a month.
41492011-11-032022-01-01gwern12'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker
41502011-11-032012-01-16eduffy10WrongGold will be $2000 by Jan 2012
41572011-11-042011-11-19sucrenoir9WrongGreece will quit euro
41582011-11-042014-01-01sameganegie27WrongGoogle+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction)
41592011-11-042012-07-01sucrenoir2RightAAPL share prices will reach $500 before July 2012
41602011-11-042012-12-16Joe Craig8WrongUnited States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013.
41612011-11-042013-11-04thaprophet5WrongThis web project will be closed down before most of the long term predictions can be judged.
41622011-11-042016-01-01Joe Craig2WrongGroupon will be delisted in 2015.
41632011-11-042012-11-07HonoreDB29RightEither Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election.
41642011-11-042011-11-07hackedtobits3WrongThe Baltimore Ravens will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on 2011-11-06.
41652011-11-042018-01-01gwern1NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in _4.0_.
41662011-11-042018-01-01gwern1NGE: There will be live-action at some point in _Rebuild_.
41672011-11-042012-09-01richardbliss2RightA game project which is non-video will raise more than $100,000 on Kickstarter by August 31, 2012
41682011-11-042013-01-01richardbliss1RightKickstarter will generate more than $2.5 million USD in successfully funded game projects that are non-video related in 2012
41842011-11-062013-01-01Jayson Virissimo3Wrong"The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012." -intrade
41852011-11-062012-01-01Jayson Virissimo1Wrong"NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders" -ipredict
41862011-11-062012-01-01Jayson Virissimo1Wrong"NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for China passport holders" -ipredict
41872011-11-062011-11-13Laurent Bossavit5RightHypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754)
41882011-11-062013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WithdrawnIf I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 1.
41892011-11-062013-01-01Jayson Virissimo3RightIf I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2.
41902011-11-062011-11-12Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will schedule an appointment to visit a doctor by the end of this week.
41912011-11-062012-06-08Jayson Virissimo1RightI will obtain a PS3 on or before 6/8/2012.
41922011-11-062013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4RightAs of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word "democracy" or "democratic" in their government type variable.
41972011-11-072013-06-16Laurent Bossavit1WrongMost of the modules in Ruby's "stdlib" will be packaged and referenced as gems in release 2.0. (See http://bit.ly/uIRu4n)
42062011-11-072012-02-15Ben Doherty1RightDan's RTC abstract will be accepted
42072011-11-072012-02-15Ben Doherty1RightBoth RTC abstracts will be accepted
42082011-11-082012-07-01gwern2RightGJP: #1040 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012?
42092011-11-082012-06-02gwern1RightGJP: #1037 Will Greece remain a member of the EU through 1 June 2012?
42102011-11-082012-06-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1036 Will media reports indicate that Iraq has experienced a military coup (or attempted coup) before 1 June 2012?
42112011-11-082012-04-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1035 Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution concerning Iran by 1 April 2012?
42122011-11-082012-03-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1034 Will Japan officially become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership before 1 March 2012?
42132011-11-082012-02-01gwern2RightGJP: #1039 Will Bashar al-Assad remain President of Syria through 31 January 2012?
42142011-11-082012-02-01gwern3RightGJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012?
42152011-11-082012-01-02gwern1RightGJP: #1042 Will Lucas Papademos be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
42162011-11-082012-01-01gwern2RightGJP: #1041 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012?
42172011-11-082011-11-16gwern1WrongGJP: #1033 Will the Tunisian Ennahda party officially announce the formation of an interim coalition government by 15 November 2011?
42232011-11-082011-12-01gwern8Right"Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011" --Intrade
42272011-11-102013-01-01bobpage2RightBefore 2013, a new version of Chrome will be released with support for Side Tabs or vertical tabs, or there will be an equivalent or better extension that implements this functionality
42282011-11-102011-12-01muflax3RightI will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month.
42292011-11-102043-01-01Jayson Virissimo7The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.
42302011-11-102012-11-07Jayson Virissimo10WrongIf Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote.
42312011-11-102012-11-07Jayson Virissimo8RightStewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election.
42322011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo6RightThe unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012.
42332011-11-102015-01-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015.
42342011-11-102012-01-01Jayson Virissimo2Wrong"Rupert Murdoch to announce departure as chairman of News Corporation before 2012" -ipredict
42352011-11-102012-03-31Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete every exercise in the first 10 chapters of Introduction to Java Programming by Y. Daniel Liang before the end of March, 30th, 2012.
42362011-11-102020-01-01Jayson Virissimo7WrongThe prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020.
42372011-11-102020-01-01Jayson Virissimo12WrongIn 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan.
42382011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo8WrongRobin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42392011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo9WrongEliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42402011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo6WrongRaymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42412011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo6RightLuke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42422011-11-102013-01-01bobpage4WrongI will watch all of the second season of Game of Thrones, before 2013
42432011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongNassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42442011-11-102012-01-01Jayson Virissimo1RightI will like the second season of Top Shot more than the first.
42452011-11-102012-01-01bobpage1RightI will finish my voice recording+transcription viewer before 2012
42462011-11-102011-11-12Jayson Virissimo1WrongCain Velasquez will defeat Junior Dos Santos in their fight on November, 12th.
42472011-11-102011-11-12Jayson Virissimo1RightBen Henderson will defeat Clay Guida in their fight on November, 12th.
42482011-11-102011-11-12Jayson Virissimo1RightDustin Poirier will defeat Pablo Garza in their fight on November, 12th.
42492011-11-102011-11-12Jayson Virissimo1RightRicardo Lamas will defeat Cub Swanson in their fight on November, 12th.
42502011-11-102011-11-12Jayson Virissimo1RightDaMarques Johnson will defeat Clay Harvison in their fight on November, 12th.
42512011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo5RightYvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42522011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo11WrongAlicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42532011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo5RightPhil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42542011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4Rightwedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42552011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo5WrongAnna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42562011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongWei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42572011-11-102013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4Wrongcousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
42582011-11-102012-01-11RobertLumley1WrongLSU will win the BCS national championship for the 2011 season.
42742011-11-102013-01-01muflax5RightI will make a prediction on PB in 2012.
42752011-11-102014-01-01muflax7RightI will still be alive in 2013.
42792011-11-112036-01-01amcknight131,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035
42802011-11-112011-11-18Anubhav9RightI will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November.
42872011-11-112012-01-02bobpage4WrongPragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal
42882011-11-112016-01-01gwern6WrongChina will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015
42892011-11-112017-12-26NathanMcKnight7WrongClear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one "Super Earth" exoplanet by Christmas, 2017.
42902011-11-112012-08-30NathanMcKnight1WithdrawnHerman Cain's vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be at least two standard deviations lower than his averaged poll numbers at the time.
42912011-11-112025-01-01NathanMcKnight5By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation).
42922011-11-112013-11-06NathanMcKnight6WrongMembers of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an "Occupy Caucus" with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections.
42932011-11-112021-01-01NathanMcKnight11At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.
42942011-11-112012-11-07NathanMcKnight6RightBarack Obama will win Ohio's electoral votes in the 2012 election.
42952011-11-112013-01-01NathanMcKnight2WrongIran will successfully launch a monkey into space by the end of 2012.
42962011-11-112013-01-01bobpage2WrongI will re-subscribe to Netflix at any point before 2013
43012011-11-112025-01-01NathanMcKnight10Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025.
43022011-11-112035-01-01NathanMcKnight31Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.
43032011-11-112020-01-01NathanMcKnight8WrongThe technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020.
43042011-11-112025-01-01NathanMcKnight10A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.
43052011-11-112013-11-11Matt1RightThe Indian place on the site of Bagatelles will be out of business inside 2 years.
43082011-11-122012-11-07NathanMcKnight7RightA third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.
43092011-11-122015-11-01NathanMcKnight7WrongBy November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.
43102011-11-122112-01-01NathanMcKnight5By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite.
43112011-11-122025-01-01NathanMcKnight2By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists.
43122011-11-122012-09-01bobpage4RightI will play multiplayer UT2004 for over 4 hours before 2012-09
43152011-11-122012-01-01Anubhav3RightI will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this year.
43162011-11-122025-01-01NathanMcKnight10By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using "3D printing" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process.
43172011-11-122013-01-01fork1RightAZEALIA BANKS - 212 FT. LAZY JAY will reach 5 million youtube views by the end of 2012.
43182011-11-122021-01-01NathanMcKnight14Right"3D printing" will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021.
43192011-11-122012-11-08NathanMcKnight6RightAt least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012.
43202011-11-122015-01-01fork1WrongSteam or Origin will offer a cloud based gaming solution ala onlive.com by 2015.
43212011-11-122020-01-01fork5WrongThe desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor.
43222011-11-122012-01-01Anubhav4WrongI will have played Fate/stay night by the end of this year.
43232011-11-122012-06-01fork1RightJack & Jill will earn 150% of its budget despite being a terrible film.
43242011-11-122015-01-01fork10Rightpredictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015.
43252011-11-122012-02-12ceterisparibus22Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months.
43282011-11-122016-11-12ARFisk6WrongBy 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety.
43292011-11-122011-12-12shokwave2WrongYF will order modafinil within a month.
43302011-11-122011-12-12shokwave3WrongMC will order modafinil within one month
43312011-11-122011-11-19shokwave3WrongI will have the Stanford ai-class anki deck up-to-date by the start of the midterm exams.
43322011-11-122011-11-12shokwave2RightTS will say e plans to undertake a PhD in immunology
43332011-11-122011-11-12shokwave2RightI won't sleep tonight
43342011-11-122011-11-17NathanMcKnight1RightObama will be favored to win the election by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets (both vote share and winner take all) within a few days of tonight's Republican debate.
43352011-11-122012-11-08NathanMcKnight2WrongIn 2012, Democrats will make gains in both the House and Senate, but will fail to wrest control of the Senate from the GOP.
43362011-11-122025-01-01NathanMcKnight6By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party.
43372011-11-122011-12-01NathanMcKnight5WrongBy the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed.
43382011-11-122013-01-01fork7RightThe Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections - Intrade
43392011-11-122011-12-13NathanMcKnight7WrongWithin a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie.
43402011-11-122013-01-01NathanMcKnight10RightAt the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem.
43412011-11-122025-01-01NathanMcKnight4By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System.
43422011-11-122025-01-01NathanMcKnight4By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating "rogue planet".
43432011-11-122013-11-12NathanMcKnight4RightWithin two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely)
43442011-11-122013-01-01NathanMcKnight2WrongFor my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users.
43452011-11-122012-11-07NathanMcKnight6WrongAt least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about "anti-capitalism".
43482011-11-122050-01-01NathanMcKnight4By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry.
43522011-11-132013-01-01bobpage4RightMy continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012
43532011-11-132013-01-01procran11RightGermany will not leave Euro by end of 2012
43612011-11-142011-12-18muflax3RightDexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer.
43622011-11-142011-11-16shokwave1RightI will get ai-class homework question 5.1 correct 4/4
43632011-11-142011-11-16shokwave1RightI will get ai-class homework question 5.1 mostly correct: 3/4
43642011-11-142011-11-16shokwave1RightI will get ai-class homework question 5.2 right. (12/12 - there are four rows of 3 answers each)
43652011-11-142011-11-16shokwave1RightI will get ai-class homework 5.2 mostly right (3 out of 4 rows completely right)
43662011-11-142011-11-16shokwave1RightI will get ai-class homework question 5.3 right (yes/no on a grid of 40 squares testing if you following a simple policy correctly)
43672011-11-142011-11-16shokwave1RightI will get ai-class homework question 5.3 mostly right (30/40)
43772011-11-152011-12-15divad124RightI will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month.
43782011-11-152011-12-31leejhancox5WithdrawnThe considerable increase in this sites visitors will inspire some activity in promoting the product. I predict a prediction book facebook page by Dec 31st 2011
43792011-11-159999-01-02RobertLumley2WithdrawnSocial Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than 50%.
43802011-11-159999-01-02RobertLumley6WithdrawnSocial Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%.
43812011-11-159999-01-02RobertLumley4WithdrawnSocial Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%.
43822011-11-159999-01-02RobertLumley2WithdrawnSocial Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 0%.
43832011-11-159999-01-02RobertLumley4WithdrawnSocial Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the median estimate on this prediction will be 50%.
43842011-11-159999-01-02RobertLumley4WithdrawnSocial Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%.
43852011-11-152011-12-15bobpage2Wrong{__slots__} will be added to NamedConstant before it is first merged to trunk
43882011-11-152011-11-26Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete all of the chapter 4 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-26.
43892011-11-152011-12-03Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03.
43902011-11-152015-01-01Jayson Virissimo7RightI will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015.
43912011-11-152015-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will join the military before 2015.
43922011-11-152011-11-15fnedrik1WrongWe will get a bid for 1.9 or better today
43932011-11-152011-11-18fnedrik1RightI will win in WordFeud against toffe
43942011-11-152025-01-01Jayson Virissimo12The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.
43952011-11-152025-01-01Jayson Virissimo19The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.
43962011-11-152025-01-01Jayson Virissimo23The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.
43972011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1RightBader will defeat Brilz at UFC 139.
43982011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1WrongBailey will defeat Castillo at UFC 139.
43992011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1RightBonnar will defeat Kingsbury at UFC 139.
44002011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1WrongBrown will defeat Baczynski at UFC 139.
44012011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1RightFaber will defeat Bowles at UFC 139.
44022011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1RightKampmann will defeat Story at UFC 139.
44032011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1RightWeidman will defeat Lawlor at UFC 139.
44042011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1RightMcDonald will defeat Soto at UFC 139.
44052011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo2WrongRua will defeat Henderson at UFC 139.
44062011-11-152050-01-01michaelanissimov25The Singularity will occur by 2050.
44072011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1WrongLe will defeat Silva at UFC 139.
44082011-11-152011-11-19Jayson Virissimo1RightTibau will defeat dos Anjos at UFC 139.
44272011-11-162013-11-16Jayson Virissimo16Wrong"Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years."
44282011-11-162012-02-22Jayson Virissimo2Wrong"New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter" -ipredict
44312011-11-162085-01-01JoshuaZ13By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150
44322011-11-162036-01-01JoshuaZ9By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125
44332011-11-162045-01-01JoshuaZ12By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125
44392011-11-172025-11-30Harbinger110HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.
44402011-11-172029-12-31Harbinger18The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.
44412011-11-172020-11-30Harbinger12New medical breakthrough will revolutionize battlefield care by late 2020.
44422011-11-172029-01-16Harbinger19The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.
44432011-11-172040-01-16Harbinger111World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth.
44442011-11-172025-01-16Harbinger114Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.
44452011-11-172027-01-01Harbinger112Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027.
44462011-11-172025-12-16Harbinger16Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025.
44472011-11-172025-11-17Harbinger115Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.
44482011-11-172025-06-30Harbinger11The collective Internet (CI) will be available on a chip by 2025.
44492011-11-172029-12-27Harbinger18Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.
44502011-11-172025-12-27Harbinger13Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025.
44512011-11-172022-12-30Harbinger110Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.
44522011-11-172025-12-16Harbinger18Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery.
44532011-11-172026-06-30Harbinger12The first "worldwide classroom" will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026.
44542011-11-172029-12-31Harbinger12By 2029, the "worldwide classroom" (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide.
44552011-11-172021-12-16Harbinger14World currences will become truly "credit-based" by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing.
44562011-11-172050-12-16Harbinger114Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.
44572011-11-172040-11-17Harbinger16Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.
44582011-11-172028-12-27Harbinger18Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.
44592011-11-172025-12-16Harbinger11Gangs and gang-affiliations will be outlawed and considered terrorist organisations by 2025.
44602011-11-172026-11-30Harbinger120A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.
44612011-11-172065-12-01Harbinger112The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.
44622011-11-172020-08-30Harbinger120The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020.
44632011-11-172029-12-01Harbinger118Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.
44662011-11-172036-01-01JoshuaZ14The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035
44672011-11-172046-01-01JoshuaZ14The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045
44682011-11-172022-12-31Harbinger1260% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022
44692011-11-172027-02-27Harbinger113The worlds first "truely" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.
44702011-11-172029-07-29Harbinger17the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.
44712011-11-172023-07-29Harbinger113With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars.
44722011-11-172027-10-15Harbinger11Social Engineering will go into standard practice for The Prison Reform Act in late 2027.
44732011-11-172012-11-11Harbinger19RightPresident Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012.
44832011-11-172024-01-01JoshuaZ7By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P.
44842011-11-172011-12-17shokwave6WrongHarbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community
44852011-11-172011-12-17shokwave7RightHarbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes
44892011-11-172011-12-10ahmedwael8WrongEgypt will go throw another war with Isreal
44902011-11-172011-11-17dr_freezy2Wrongthe sun will rise in the west and sets in the east
44942011-11-172011-12-09general8WrongThe USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17
44952011-11-172012-01-10JoshuaZ4WithdrawnPredictionBook will be modified sometime before January 10, 2012 months to have some form of moderation.
44962011-11-172025-01-01Seyi6Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025
45092011-11-182012-04-01Isaac3RightI will complete at least one of the new Stanford online classes (I signed up for 6 of them)
45122011-11-182012-01-01roshni2WrongI will still be using prediction book by January 2012
45132011-11-182011-12-30roshni4RightI will get the job I'm interviewing for on Tuesday
45252011-11-182011-11-20Anubhav1RightAt least 1 of the 3 books I ordered from Flipkart today will have been delivered by Sunday.
45332011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav8Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45342011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav7Wrong_HP MoR_: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45352011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav3WrongNeville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45362011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav3WrongNeville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45372011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav7Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45382011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav6Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45392011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav2WrongDraco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45402011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav7Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality.
45412011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav5RightRon will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality.
45422011-11-192016-01-01Anubhav15Wrong_HP MoR_: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality.
45432011-11-192013-01-01Anubhav16Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013.
45442011-11-192014-01-01Anubhav19Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014.
45452011-11-192015-01-01Anubhav28Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015.
45512011-11-192016-11-19New3WrongWill Iran's regime will end?
45702011-11-202011-11-28Anubhav2WrongI will start studying for the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam this week.
45712011-11-202013-01-01Anubhav2WrongThere will be a new (canon) _Haruhi_ anime by 2013.
45722011-11-202014-01-01Anubhav2WrongThere will be a new (canon) _Haruhi_ anime by 2014.
45732011-11-202015-01-01Anubhav2WrongThere will be a new (canon) _Haruhi_ anime by 2015.
45742011-11-202150-01-01Jayson Virissimo13"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog
45772011-11-202015-01-01sinyos1Wrongthere will be a cure for AIDS by the year 2015
45892011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1WrongCorrectly answer midterm question 2
45902011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 3
45912011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 4
45922011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 5
45932011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 6
45942011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 7
45952011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 8
45962011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 9
45972011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 10
45982011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 11
45992011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 12
46002011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 13
46012011-11-212011-11-22shokwave1RightCorrectly answer midterm question 14
46022011-11-212011-11-21shokwave1WrongCorrectly answer midterm question 15
46172011-11-212011-12-05ultramarinefoil1WithdrawnI will get a HD in at least two units
46182011-11-212011-12-05ultramarinefoil1WrongI will get a HD for at least two of my units, and only one credit.
46242011-11-222011-12-06yurifury2RightDark Souls patch will be out within two weeks.
46282011-11-222011-11-22ultramarinefoil1WrongI will miss the 3:13pm bus
46352011-11-222015-01-01Nic_Smith3WrongOpen source MineCraft client by 2015
46362011-11-222017-01-01Nic_Smith6WrongOpen source MineCraft client by 2017
46372011-11-222021-01-01Nic_Smith5Open source MineCraft client by 2021
46382011-11-222023-01-01Nic_Smith9No open source Minecraft client before 2023
46442011-11-232013-11-23gwern12Wrong"Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future" --Chris Jolley
46452011-11-232012-01-30roshni8WrongMy guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time.
46462011-11-232012-01-04roshni5WrongI will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com.
46472011-11-232013-11-23gwern2WrongAmazon will dominate Android appstores --Marco Arment
46532011-11-232012-11-23gwern1WrongMangaka Mutsumi Akazaki (formerly of _Fractale_) will be publishing a regular series within a year.
46542011-11-232021-01-01ceterisparibus21A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.
46552011-11-232011-12-23gwern1RightThe man in the screen cap is Yoshiyuki Tomino
46562011-11-242016-11-24Porejide3By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting
46572011-11-242011-11-24shokwave1RightFinish this tender this afternoon
46582011-11-242011-12-20shokwave1WrongSucceed on the TOVP tender
46592011-11-242035-01-01NathanMcKnight6WithdrawnBy 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today.
46642011-11-242013-01-01M37WrongIn 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel.
46652011-11-242035-01-01NathanMcKnight9By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.
46692011-11-252011-11-25shokwave1WrongDark Souls: Capra Demon dead by tonight
46702011-11-252011-11-26shokwave1WrongOn time: at the door by 8am tomorrow
46712011-11-252011-11-26shokwave1WrongWe will get through the first unit of this week's AI class lectures
46722011-11-252011-11-26shokwave1WrongWe will get through the second unit of this week's AI class lectures tomorrow
46732011-11-252012-05-25shokwave2WrongMy chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence)
46772011-11-262014-12-27YourFriend6WrongOzzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day.
46812011-11-272011-11-28yurifury1RightI will finish ai-class unit 13 today.
46842011-11-282011-11-29Codyz3WrongI will finish Seneca 84 tonight
46872011-11-282015-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongThe USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015.
46882011-11-282040-01-01JoshuaZ7RightCarrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford.
46972011-11-302011-12-05Anubhav1WrongI will have done the infomation collection exercise for Electronics by the end of this week.
46982011-11-302011-12-05Anubhav1WrongI will start studying for the actuarial entrance exam this week.
46992011-11-302011-12-01Anubhav1RightI will add cards to an Anki deck today.
47002011-11-302011-12-01Anubhav1WrongI will add cards to more than one Anki deck today.
47012011-11-302011-12-03gwern2Rightbrazil84 will approve my comment.
47022011-11-302011-12-05gwern1RightSeth Kurtenbach will approve my comment.
47032011-11-302012-01-01Anubhav3WrongI will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year.
47042011-11-302011-12-14Nic_Smith4WrongBryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term "real world" to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks.
47052011-11-302012-02-01gwern5WrongGrognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012.
47062011-11-302012-02-01gwern5WrongGrognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong
47072011-11-302012-02-15papermachine4WrongGrognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup.
47112011-12-012014-01-01Isaac10WrongThe US will be at war with Iran by 2014
47142011-12-022011-12-02JoshuaZ1WrongNone of the students with extra time will use all their extra time.
47272011-12-022070-01-01pleeppleep8The singularity will occur by the year 2070
47362011-12-042045-12-04gwern9Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.
47372011-12-042070-01-01bobpage12Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070
47402011-12-042011-12-05Anubhav1RightI will add cards to more than one anki deck today.
47412011-12-042013-01-01gwern8Rightlukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012.
47422011-12-042021-01-01gwern3Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020.
47432011-12-042041-01-01gwern2Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040.
47442011-12-042061-01-01gwern4Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060.
47452011-12-042021-01-01gwern4The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021.
47462011-12-042041-01-01gwern4The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041.
47472011-12-042061-01-01gwern4The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061.
47482011-12-042021-01-01gwern4Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021.
47492011-12-042041-01-01gwern4Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041.
47502011-12-042061-01-01gwern4Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061.
47542011-12-052012-01-01Anubhav1WithdrawnIt turns out that Kapil Sibal didn't actually suggest prescreening UGC using human moderators.
47552011-12-052021-08-07Grognor8James Randi will live to be 93 years old.
47612011-12-062012-01-01Anubhav6WrongI will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year.
47722011-12-072011-12-07Anubhav1WithdrawnThe virus warning turns out to be false.
47732011-12-072011-12-07RobertLumley1WrongOne of the comfortable seats in the library Starbucks will be available when I walk in.
47742011-12-082020-01-01gwern6Rightgwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020.
47752011-12-082011-12-08bobpage1WrongWinDirStat will crash or stop responding for 30 minutes on my ~7M+ file scan
47762011-12-082011-12-09RobertLumley1RightTomorrow morning, I will wake up within five minutes of the time I set my alarm for in order to study for my final.
47812011-12-082012-06-02RobertLumley10RightI will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW.
47882011-12-102012-09-03bobpage13Wrong"[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate"
47892011-12-102012-12-31CarlShulman2WrongGiving What We Can will have at least 320 pledged members by December 31, 2012.
47902011-12-102011-12-10gwern1WrongDay 1: pill was modafinil.
47972011-12-112011-12-12Anubhav2WrongTonight, I will find a raw txt -- I mean, a completely legal copy of the book that has been recommended to me.
47982011-12-112011-12-19Anubhav1RightI will update my Ubuntu install this week.
48012011-12-112011-12-11Anubhav1RightAakash will complete MW3 by midnight.
48022011-12-112011-12-12RobertLumley1RightI will leave for my parents house by 3:00 today.
48032011-12-112012-05-20JoshuaZ2WrongHarvard's yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below.
48042011-12-112011-12-18Isaac1WrongI will get over an 80 on my USH test I took last week
48052011-12-122011-12-12gwern1WrongDay 2: pill was modafinil
48062011-12-122012-01-01Anubhav6WrongPredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year.
48382011-12-122012-12-12muflax1WrongDexter: Louis returns in season 7 as villain.
48392011-12-122012-12-12muflax1RightDexter: Louis returns in season 7 as non-villain.
48402011-12-122011-12-21muflax1WrongDexter season 6: Louis kills Travis.
48412011-12-122011-12-21muflax1WrongDexter season 6: a regular dies.
48422011-12-122011-12-21muflax1WrongDexter season 6: Deb and Dex kiss.
48452011-12-122011-12-13Anubhav2WrongI will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow.
48462011-12-122012-03-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1043 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012?
48472011-12-122012-03-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012?
48482011-12-122012-04-01gwern1RightGJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012?
48492011-12-122012-08-05faws9RightChrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter.
48532011-12-132014-01-02saturn5WrongA law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014
48542011-12-132011-12-14Anubhav1RightI will make an Anki deck for M1 and add at least 20 cards to it today.
48552011-12-132011-12-15Anubhav2WrongI will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow.
48562011-12-132011-12-15Anubhav2WrongI will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow.
48572011-12-132011-12-13gwern1WrongDay 3: pill was modafinil.
48772011-12-142013-01-01Jayson Virissimo7WrongIf Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false.
48782011-12-142011-12-15Anubhav2WrongTomorrow is results day.
48792011-12-142011-12-15Anubhav1WrongI will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow.
48802011-12-142011-12-14gwern1RightDay 4: pill was modafinil.
48812011-12-142012-09-01gwern2WrongGJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012?
48822011-12-142012-06-01gwern1WithdrawnGJP: #1046 Will Australia formally transfer Uranium to India by 1 June 2012?
48832011-12-142012-06-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1049 Will Asif Ali Zardari resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of President of Pakistan before 1 June 2012?
48842011-12-142012-03-30gwern1RightGJP: #1048 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012?
48852011-12-142012-04-29leejhancox1WrongCoventry City FC will avoid relegation from the Championship League.
48862011-12-152011-12-16gwern4RightI will enjoy _Sherlock Holmes_ tonight.
48872011-12-162011-12-17Anubhav1RightI will study actuarial science for at least two hours today.
48882011-12-162011-12-17Anubhav1WrongI will study Electronics for at least an hour today.
48892011-12-162011-12-17Anubhav1RightI will have LWT up and running today.
48902011-12-162011-12-17Anubhav1WrongI will have share up and running today.
48952011-12-172012-12-17gwern5Wronggwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now.
49022011-12-192012-12-19muflax1WrongDexter season 7: Deb and Dex kiss.
49032011-12-192012-12-19muflax2WrongDexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6.
49042011-12-192013-12-19muflax3WrongDexter dies in the final episode.
49052011-12-192012-12-19muflax1RightDexter season 7: a regular dies.
49062011-12-192012-12-19muflax1WrongDexter season 7: I will call one major twist in the final episode of the season halfway through.
49072011-12-192013-12-19muflax2WrongDexter: There will be wincest.
49082011-12-192012-12-19muflax1RightDexter season 7: real identity of Bay Harbor Butcher is publicly announced.
49092011-12-192012-06-01Jayson Virissimo1RightI will deadlift my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012.
49102011-12-192012-06-01Jayson Virissimo1RightI will squat my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012.
49112011-12-192012-06-01Jayson Virissimo1RightI will bench press my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012.
49122011-12-192012-06-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before June 2012.
49132011-12-192011-12-19gwern1WrongDay 5: pill was modafinil.
49142011-12-192012-12-19muflax1WrongDexter season 7: Quinn and Louis will work together.
49152011-12-192012-12-19muflax1WrongDexter season 7: Quinn investigates Dexter.
49162011-12-192012-12-31gwern2WrongGJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU?
49172011-12-192013-01-01gwern2RightGJP: #1052 Will Aung San Suu Kyi be sworn in or seated as a member of Parliament in Myanmar (Burma) before 1 January 2013?
49182011-12-192013-01-01gwern4RightGJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013?
49192011-12-192012-06-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1050 Will the next Palestinian general election commence by 1 June 2012?
49202011-12-192012-06-01gwern2WrongGJP: #1054 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012?
49282011-12-202016-12-20Laurent Bossavit1WithdrawnFeature phones are going to vanish out of the developed world and over the course of five years they'll vanish out of the developing world. -- Marc Andreessen in http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57345138-93/marc-andreessen-predictions-for-2012-and-beyond/
49292011-12-202016-12-20Laurent Bossavit3WrongIn 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM "5 in 5" http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) - for concreteness take "significant" to be $1Bn
49302011-12-202016-12-20Laurent Bossavit11WrongWithin 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM "5 in 5" http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html)
49312011-12-202016-12-20Laurent Bossavit4WrongWithin 5 years, "mind reading" (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's "5 in 5" http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no-
49322011-12-202016-12-20Laurent Bossavit5WrongWithin 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM "5 in 5" http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html)
49332011-12-202012-01-03RobertLumley5WrongRon Paul will win the Iowa Caucus.
49342011-12-202012-12-20muflax2WrongReddit: "Dawn of The Final Day" meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20.
49352011-12-202012-12-20muflax1WrongReddit: reminder that "Dawn of The Final Day" frontpage was predicted a year ago on frontpage on 2012/12/20.
49362011-12-202012-08-31selylidne4RightMitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination.
49392011-12-202012-08-31selylidne2WrongNewt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination.
49402011-12-202012-08-31selylidne1WrongRick Perry will win the 2012 GOP nomination.
49412011-12-202012-08-31selylidne1WrongMichelle Bachmann will win the 2012 GOP nomination.
49422011-12-212013-01-01gwern7WrongMicrosoft will buy RIM --Cringely
49432011-12-212013-01-01gwern3WrongConditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. --Cringely
49442011-12-212013-01-01faws12RightSteve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012
49452011-12-212012-10-16Grognor10WrongSOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed.
49462011-12-212012-12-19bobpage3WrongDexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb
49472011-12-212011-12-22Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete Project Euler #5 within the next 7 hours.
49502011-12-212011-12-26Anubhav1WrongI will have completed my Electronics report by the end of this week.
49512011-12-212011-12-22Anubhav1WrongI will complete at least two SQL practicals tomorrow.
49522011-12-212013-01-01Jayson Virissimo11WrongSOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown.
49532011-12-212015-01-01Jayson Virissimo10WrongAn alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015.
49542011-12-212011-12-21gwern1RightDay 7: pill was modafinil.
49572011-12-222011-12-22Anubhav1WrongAkshay's file produces no errors on the first run.
49582011-12-222012-06-01Anubhav1RightRashi will score over 80% on her boards.
49592011-12-222012-06-01Anubhav1WrongRashi will score over 90% on her boards.
49602011-12-222011-12-22Anubhav1WrongI will do part of the paperwork for the 19th CS practical today.
49612011-12-222011-12-23Anubhav1RightI will add at least 40 cards to my Maths/Stats/Electronics decks today.
49622011-12-222011-12-23Anubhav1WrongI will try out the binary file program today.
49702011-12-222011-12-28Anubhav2WrongWill clear first round of Code Junkie.
49712011-12-222011-12-29Anubhav2WrongWill clear second round of Code Junkie.
49722011-12-222011-12-29Anubhav1WrongWill clear third round of Code Junkie.
49732011-12-222011-12-26Anubhav1RightI will have changed Chrome's language to Japanese by the end of this week.
49742011-12-222011-12-23Anubhav2WrongI will edit my keyboard layout and build it today.
49772011-12-222012-02-20Lemmih1WrongI will get a B in my LinAlg class.
49782011-12-222012-04-01Lemmih1WrongI will have a profitable bot before April 1st, 2012.
49792011-12-222011-12-31leejhancox3WrongThe Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts
49802011-12-232011-12-24Anubhav1WrongWill try the binary filehandling program out today.
49812011-12-242011-12-24Anubhav1WrongThe correlation between S1 marks and attendence will be > 0.6
49822011-12-242021-12-24gwern10In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).
49892011-12-252011-12-25gwern1RightDay 8: pill was modafinil.
49902011-12-252013-02-15papermachine2WithdrawnKevin's diet (see comments for link) will work for Eliezer Yudkowsky (formally, lose at least 10 pounds in a year). If EY never adopts the diet, this prediction is wrong.
49912011-12-262014-01-16papermachine5WrongEliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years.
49922011-12-262014-01-16papermachine4RightIf Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight.
49932011-12-262011-12-26Anubhav1RightRetain the 1:45 slot for Mindspark. Or get a slot after 12:30.
49942011-12-262011-12-26Lemmih1WrongIt will take Jonathan longer than 30 minutes to bike home.
49982011-12-272012-01-27gwern1RightI will receive <10 pull requests for the GitHub repo for gwern.net.
50032011-12-272023-01-01bobpage9The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023
50042011-12-272013-01-01gwern3Right'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' --dia80
50072011-12-282011-12-28Anubhav1WrongPerson I'm chatting with is a girl.
50082011-12-282011-12-28Anubhav1RightPerson I'm chatting with is an engineer/engineering student from India.
50092011-12-282011-12-28Anubhav1WithdrawnPerson I'm chatting with is a girl.
50122011-12-282020-01-01gwern4RightRobin Hanson will publish a book before 2020
50132011-12-282025-01-01gwern6RightRobin Hanson will publish a book before 2025
50142011-12-282030-01-01gwern1RightRobin Hanson will publish a book before 2030
50152011-12-282012-07-19ZrCa3Wrongreddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB.
50162011-12-282014-01-01gwern16Wrong_HP MoR_: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' --shminux
50172011-12-282031-12-28gwern7In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.
50182011-12-282021-12-28gwern4In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.
50192011-12-282013-01-01bobpage2WrongBefore 2013, the US embassy in Beijing will stop publicly reporting air pollution readings (at least one continuous month with no readings)
50202011-12-292025-12-29gwern12Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.
50212011-12-292011-12-29Anubhav1WrongCorrelation between C1 marks and S1 marks will be > 0.7
50222011-12-292011-12-29Anubhav1WrongStranger will dc.
50232011-12-292011-12-29Anubhav1RightStranger will dc.
50242011-12-292011-12-29Anubhav1WrongStanger will dc.
50252011-12-292011-12-29Anubhav1RightStranger will dc.
50262011-12-292011-12-29Anubhav1WrongStranger is female.
50272011-12-292011-12-29Anubhav1RightStranger will dc.
50382011-12-312011-12-31Anubhav1RightStranger will claim to live in London.
50392011-12-312013-01-01gwern4Right"one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins" --kiba
50402011-12-312012-12-31gwern4WrongBitcoin/USD prices: "best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks." --kiba
50412011-12-312028-12-31muflax1Q.I. abandons its "one letter a season" concept.
50422011-12-312028-12-31muflax5Q.I. makes it up to "Z".
50432011-12-312020-01-01muflax7RightHBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones).
50442011-12-312013-01-01muflax1WrongHalf-Life 3 released in 2012.
50452011-12-312050-01-01gwern3united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050
50462011-12-312050-01-01gwern4united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050
50482012-01-012012-01-01Anubhav1RightCorrelation between C1 attendance and marks will be less than 0.7
50492012-01-012012-01-01Anubhav1WrongC1 marks are more strongly correlated with S1 attendance than C1 attendance.
50502012-01-012012-01-01Anubhav1RightS1 marks are more strongly correlated with C1 attendance than with S1 attendance.
50512012-01-012014-01-01bobpage2RightI will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2013
50522012-01-012012-12-31georgesdelatour6WrongBashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012
50532012-01-012012-11-07georgesdelatour6RightBarack Obama will be re-elected President of the United States of America
50542012-01-012012-02-01Mqrius1RightThe Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC.
50552012-01-012012-02-01Mqrius7RightThe Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC.
50562012-01-012012-01-01gwern1RightNight 1: pill was Vitamin D.
50572012-01-012018-01-01gwern4NGE: 4.0 will be titled "You Can (Not) Stay Here"
50582012-01-012021-01-01gwern12'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin
50592012-01-022013-01-01Porejide5WrongOn Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top
50602012-01-022013-01-01Porejide3WrongOn Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top
50612012-01-022013-01-01Porejide2RightThe Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top
50622012-01-022013-01-01Porejide2Wrong12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top
50632012-01-022013-01-01Porejide6WrongBy Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB.
50642012-01-022013-01-01Porejide5WrongAt least three papers with the word "connectomics" in their title or abstract will be published in *Nature* in 2012.
50652012-01-022012-01-03Anubhav2WrongWill change Windows' display language to Japanese today.
50662012-01-022012-11-07gwern6RightRepublican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson
50672012-01-022012-11-07gwern5WrongTea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party
50682012-01-022012-11-07gwern4WrongRepublican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected
50692012-01-022012-05-30gwern10Right"The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare" --jdgalt
50702012-01-022013-01-01gwern19Wrong"There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs..." --jdgalt
50712012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1RightTrying to install the Japanese language pack produces an error (again).
50722012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1WrongRepairing .NET client profile will fix the error.
50732012-01-022016-01-01ahartell5Right_HP MoR_: Harry is Voldemort
50742012-01-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo6WrongIf Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a "shooting spree" and the shooter will mention the "political climate" as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn.
50752012-01-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo7WrongThe mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012.
50762012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1WrongFix 50528 fixed the problem.
50772012-01-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongDark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%.
50782012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1WrongManual install will work on my PC.
50792012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1RightManual install will work on my laptop.
50802012-01-022019-01-01Porejide5There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018.
50812012-01-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4RightA previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013.
50822012-01-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongChris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013.
50832012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1WrongCopying the ja-jp registry key from my laptop to my PC and deleting the en-us key will change my PC's display language to Japanese.
50842012-01-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo6WrongThe winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate.
50852012-01-022012-01-07Anubhav3RightWill have completed the maths FAC for ACET by Saturday.
50862012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1Right最近 is pronounced さいきん
50872012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1Right完全 is pronounced かんぜん
50882012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1Right切り取り is pronounced きりとり
50892012-01-022012-01-02Anubhav1Wrong送る　is pronounced そうる
50902012-01-022012-01-08Anubhav1WrongWill have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by Sunday.
50912012-01-022013-01-01Anubhav5WrongLessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ )
50922012-01-022012-02-01Jayson Virissimo1WithdrawnTwo Open Threads will be posted in the Discussion Section of Less Wrong in the month of January 2012 and the second thread will have at least double the number of posts contained in the first thread before February 2012.
50932012-01-022015-01-01Jayson Virissimo5WrongThe Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015.
50942012-01-022012-02-01Jayson Virissimo8WrongI will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City.
50952012-01-022012-02-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City.
50962012-01-022012-01-02gwern1WrongNight 2: pill was Vitamin D.
50972012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ3WrongIn 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse.
50982012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2RightThe Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012
50992012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2RightP != NP will not be resolved by 2013
51002012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ19RightGeneral AI will not be built by 2013
51012012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2RightThe relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012.
51022012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2WrongThere will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter.
51032012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ1WrongIn 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter.
51042012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ1RightNo improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012
51052012-01-022014-01-01Anubhav2WrongI will read at least 15 novels of the Maria-sama ga Miteru series in the next 2 years.
51062012-01-022012-01-04Anubhav3RightShare will download one of the files I'm looking for tomorrow.
51072012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2RightI will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity in 2013
51082012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ3RightHumans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012
51092012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ1RightRussia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012
51102012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ31RightNo contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012
51112012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2RightThe Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012
51122012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ22Right_HP MoR_: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012
51132012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ1WrongIn 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area
51142012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2RightI will not become a vegetarian in 2012
51152012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ2RightMy mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year
51162012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ1RightI will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year.
51172012-01-022013-01-01JoshuaZ1RightAt least one of my New Years predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me.
51212012-01-022013-01-01gwern2WrongAMZN market cap >= 0.25 * AAPL on 31 December 2012.
51222012-01-032015-01-01gwern13Right_HP MoR_: The Peverell tombstone ("The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death") will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point.
51232012-01-032013-01-01gwern2Wrong"Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm" --Cringely
51242012-01-032016-01-01gwern7RightHP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him.
51252012-01-032013-01-16Jach1WrongI will "remember my name, or soon learn it" for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related
51262012-01-032013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongFuture Cities Development Inc. will found at least one settlement in a special development region in Honduras and it will have a population of equal to or greater than 500 before 2013.
51272012-01-032012-12-31Emanuel Rylke1WrongI will consume a story (book, movie, comic...) in french primarly for enjoyment and not language learning.
51282012-01-032013-01-30Emanuel Rylke3Wrong2012 i will enter a romantic relationship that will last longer than 30 days.
51292012-01-032012-01-03gwern1RightNight 3: pill was Vitamin D
51302012-01-032012-12-31Emanuel Rylke1RightI will apply for a job as a software developer.
51312012-01-032012-01-03Anubhav1Right'Sakura saku' is the first Love Hina OP.
51322012-01-032012-01-03Anubhav1Wrong'Kimi ni aeta Yokatta' is from one of the Slayers series.
51332012-01-032012-01-03Anubhav1WithdrawnAdding the Mecab folder to the PATH variable will make 'mecab -O wakati input.txt -o output.txt' work.
51342012-01-032012-01-03Anubhav1WrongI have heard -Life- before.
51352012-01-032013-01-01gwern2Wrong"Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods" (top 100)
51362012-01-032013-01-01gwern2Wrong"Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods" (top 500)
51372012-01-032013-01-01gwern4WithdrawnBitcoin "Coverage in media will decrease"
51382012-01-032012-12-16marchdown1WrongBy the end of the year Namecoin would be closer to Bitcoin in value than to the early-2012 value of Namecoin.
51472012-01-042012-01-04Anubhav1RightKunikida (from Haruhi) is written country-tree-field.
51482012-01-042012-01-04Anubhav1RightTaniguchi (from Haruhi) is written valley-mouth.
51492012-01-042012-09-23ahartell2WrongI will finish reading GEB before I go to college.
51622012-01-042012-01-04gwern1RightNight 4: pill was Vitamin D
51632012-01-042013-01-01gwern1Wrong"Prediction #4: Motorola buys TiVO" --Cringely
51642012-01-042013-01-01gwern2WrongEither Morotola or Cisco will buy Tivo.
51692012-01-042012-01-07ahartell1RightI will go to school tomorrow and friday.
51702012-01-042012-01-05ahartell1RightI will not open facebook between now and midnight.
51712012-01-042012-07-01ahartell1RightI will be able to solve a rubix cube in less than 1 minute and 30 seconds by July
51802012-01-052012-01-05gwern1WrongThe IFC Center will detect me sneaking into the second movie & kick me out.
51812012-01-052012-01-05gwern1RightThe US Mint has resumed printing $2 bills since I checked in 2005 (thus explaining the new-looking $2 I received as change at IFC).
51822012-01-052012-01-19Laurent Bossavit3Wrong"Leprechauns" (http://leanpub.com/leprechauns) will top the $720 in sales suggested by pre-publication declarations of interest (60 interested readers at an average of $12), within two weeks.
51832012-01-052013-01-01gwern3Wrong"No IPO for Facebook" --Cringely
51842012-01-052013-01-01gwern3Wrong"Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo" --Mr Windows
51852012-01-052013-01-01gwern2Wrong"A new Microsoft CEO" [Ballmer steps down] --Cringely
51862012-01-052013-01-01gwern2WrongBallmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt --Cringely
51872012-01-062012-02-01gwern16WrongBitcoin >$9000 by February.
51912012-01-062012-01-06Anubhav1WrongI will have stopped wasting time on Omegle by 2:30. (It's 1:25 now.)
51922012-01-062012-01-06Anubhav1Wrong'Ame Nochi Kumochi Nochi Hare' was the theme song of one of the 'Aa Megamisama' animes/OVAs.
51932012-01-062012-01-09Anubhav1WrongSomeone from the IAI will ring me up on the day of the President's speech. The call will be regarding my non-attendance.
51942012-01-062012-01-30Anubhav2WrongI will regret not attending the IAI President's speech.
51952012-01-062012-01-06gwern1RightNight 6: pill was Vitamin D
52092012-01-072012-01-07Anubhav1WrongStats assignment for today will include χ^2 or student's-t distributions.
52122012-01-072012-01-07Anubhav1WrongReading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me greatly
52132012-01-072014-01-16siscoking6RightThe future of the Euro: "Euro survives".
52142012-01-072012-01-15Anubhav1WrongWill have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by next Sunday.
52152012-01-072014-01-16siscoking1WrongThe future of the Euro: Pheripheral countries leave, Germany and France lead move to fiscal union. Smaller Euro survives.
52162012-01-072012-01-08Anubhav1RightWill try out Trello today.
52172012-01-072014-01-16siscoking3WrongThe future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany.
52182012-01-072014-01-16siscoking3WrongThe future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies.
52192012-01-072013-01-01modulus2RightThere will be a general strike in Spain on 2012
52202012-01-072012-01-08Anubhav1WrongWon't have broadband tomorrow morning.
52212012-01-072046-01-01Anubhav2Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature.
52222012-01-072012-01-07gwern1WrongNight 7: pill was Vitamin D
52232012-01-072012-12-30kiba15WrongThe bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction.
52242012-01-082012-02-08gwern1WrongPart 2 of _Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies_ to be ready within a month
52252012-01-082012-03-08gwern1WrongPart 2 of _Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies_ to be ready within 2 months
52302012-01-082012-12-31Grognor2Righthttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0fyO6ypVYI This super-awesome YouTube video will be taken down by the end of the year.
52312012-01-082012-08-06Grognor3WrongI will become a Peter Thiel Fellow.
52322012-01-082012-01-08Anubhav1RightGoogling 'real websites' will throw up at least one bizarre hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count)
52332012-01-082012-01-08Anubhav1WrongGoogling 'real websites' will throw up at least one amusing hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count)
52342012-01-082013-01-01Anubhav2WrongCopyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing.
52352012-01-082016-01-01Anubhav2WrongCopyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing.
52362012-01-082016-01-01Anubhav9WrongCopyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016.
52372012-01-082012-01-09Anubhav4WrongTomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong.
52382012-01-082012-01-08gwern1WrongNight 8: pill was Vitamin D
52392012-01-082015-01-08kiba1Within 3 years, at least 3 manga English distributors will go out of business or stop publishing.
52422012-01-082013-01-01gwern1Wrong"Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa" --Brian Breslin
52432012-01-082017-01-08gwern2WrongSquare Inc. will be bought or merged within 5 years.
52442012-01-082013-01-01gwern2Wrong"3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon" --Brian Breslin
52452012-01-082013-01-01gwern1WrongSalesforce will buy Hootsuite and/or Klout.
52462012-01-082013-01-01gwern3Right"9. Facebook hits 1 billion users" --Brian Breslin
52552012-01-092012-09-30waveman1WrongI will have basic stock trading model done, with initial trades by this date.
52562012-01-092012-12-31waveman1WrongI have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading.
52572012-01-092012-03-31waveman3WrongI will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs.
52582012-01-092012-03-31waveman1WrongI will have achieved intermediate level weightlifting levels for all lifts as defined in my spreadsheet.
52592012-01-092012-02-28waveman1RightI will have achieved a heart rate of 165 for 15 minutes straight which is my aerobic fitness goal.
52602012-01-092012-12-31waveman1WrongDuring 2012 I will be actively involved in some activist activity. Eg MC.
52612012-01-092012-07-01waveman1WithdrawnI will have finished the equivalent of 3rd year physics.
52622012-01-092012-11-30waveman1WrongI will have completed two masters level AI courses at ANU or equivalent
52652012-01-092012-02-28waveman1RightI will have listened to Dorothy's memories tape and mailed her a letter with my comments and thoughts.
52682012-01-092012-01-09Anubhav1WrongI have heard 'raging waves' before.
52692012-01-092012-12-31_W_5WrongNo elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012
52702012-01-092012-01-09gwern1RightNight 9: pill was Vitamin D
52712012-01-092012-02-01kiba1RightI will continue to work on the game "The City" by next month.
52722012-01-092012-02-01kiba2WrongI will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month.
52732012-01-092012-04-01gwern3WrongGJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012?
52742012-01-092012-04-01gwern2WrongGJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012?
52752012-01-092012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1058 By 1 April 2012, will Egypt officially announce its withdrawal from its 1979 peace treaty with Israel?
52762012-01-092013-01-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1061 Will Syria’s Arab League membership be reinstated* by 31 December 2012?
52772012-01-092012-04-01gwern2RightGJP: #1060 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012?
52782012-01-092012-04-03gwern2WrongGJP: #1062 Will the daily Europe Brent Crude FOB spot price per barrel be greater than or equal to $150 before 3 April 2012?
52792012-01-092013-01-01gwern4WrongGJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013?
52802012-01-092013-02-01gwern1RightGJP: #1057 Will the Russian military deploy* additional Iskander missiles before 1 February 2013?
52812012-01-092017-02-01kiba4WrongSometime in the next 5 years, a television network will make a build show that involves hackerspaces.
52882012-01-102012-01-17Akshay Rawat2Wrong3rd Test Australia v India at Perth: India Wins
52892012-01-102013-01-01modulus10RightIran will not be invaded or attacked this year
52902012-01-102012-01-10gwern1WrongNight 10: pill was Vitamin D
52912012-01-102012-03-20smijer4WrongMitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday.
52952012-01-102012-12-21kish14WrongUSD worth over 3 EUR
52962012-01-102013-01-01kish2WrongSolar flare to harm life on Earth
53102012-01-112012-12-31smijer10RightIran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012.
53112012-01-112012-01-11gwern1RightNight 11: pill was Vitamin D
53142012-01-122013-01-01bobpage13WrongGoogle Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a "blackout" protesting pending legislation, before 2013
53152012-01-122014-05-01Anubhav1WrongI will buy a car before graduating college.
53162012-01-122012-01-12OptiMind2RightDet tager mig <30 minutter at køre på cykel fra Lundsgade til Scandiagade
53172012-01-122012-05-01OptiMind3WrongJeg kommer til Korea inden sommer.
53182012-01-122012-01-12gwern1RightNight 12: pill was Vitamin D
53192012-01-122012-02-01Lemmih1RightI will eat no more than 1000kcal/day (± 10%) in January.
53202012-01-122012-01-26ahartell3RightI scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today.
53212012-01-122012-01-26kim135792Rightthe dog will have a good life
53222012-01-132012-01-17Anubhav2RightWill submit my database case study before the deadline.
53232012-01-132012-05-01Anubhav4WrongI will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1.
53242012-01-132012-04-01Anubhav4WrongI will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature.
53252012-01-132012-01-13gwern1RightNight 13: pill was Vitamin D
53262012-01-132014-03-31Anubhav11WrongI will drop out of college.
53312012-01-142032-01-01gwern5Climate change denial completely discredited - "about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today" --Charles Stross
53322012-01-142032-01-01gwern3Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012
53332012-01-142032-01-01gwern5"oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it." --Charles Stross
53342012-01-142032-01-01gwern5Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 --Charles Stross
53352012-01-142063-01-01gwern4Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 --Charles Stross
53362012-01-142032-01-01gwern5Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. --Charles Stross
53372012-01-142032-01-01gwern4"Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids" in 2032 --Charles Stross
53382012-01-142032-01-01gwern4Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 --Charles Stross
53392012-01-142032-01-01gwern4"the trend towards urbanization continues" 2012-2032 --Charles Stross
53402012-01-142032-01-01gwern5All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 --Charles Stross
53412012-01-142032-01-01gwern5Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 --Charles Stross
53422012-01-142032-01-01gwern5"Moore's Law will have played out by 2032" --Charles Stross
53432012-01-142032-01-01gwern5Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 --Charles Stross
53442012-01-142032-01-01gwern5"gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office" by 2032 --Charles Stross
53452012-01-142032-01-01gwern3"Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist" --Charles Stross
53462012-01-142032-01-01gwern4"Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper" by 2032 --Charles Stross
53472012-01-142032-01-01gwern6"HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy" by 2032 --Charles Stross
53482012-01-142092-01-01gwern4By 2092, "20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct." --Charles Stross
53492012-01-142092-01-01gwern5"There will be 5-10 billion people." --Charles Stross
53502012-01-142092-01-01gwern4"Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising."
53512012-01-142092-01-01gwern3"The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?" --C
53532012-01-142092-01-01gwern5Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 --Charles Stross
53542012-01-142092-01-01gwern7Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross
53552012-01-142092-01-01gwern4Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized --Charles Stross
53562012-01-142092-01-01gwern6Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross
53572012-01-142092-01-01gwern8Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross
53582012-01-142092-01-01gwern7A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross
53592012-01-142092-01-01gwern3"computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some" by 2092 --Charles Stross
53602012-01-142012-01-19siscoking2WithdrawnThis prediction will be deleted within 5 days.
53612012-01-142012-01-14gwern1RightNight 14: pill was Vitamin D
53622012-01-142013-01-01gwern1WrongBlue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops by 2013
53672012-01-142013-01-14Grognor4RightGoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate one year from today.
53682012-01-142014-01-14Grognor5RightGoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today.
53692012-01-152012-04-01siscoking5WrongBitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10
53702012-01-152012-04-01siscoking3WrongBitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15
53712012-01-152012-04-01siscoking3WrongBitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20
53722012-01-152012-04-01siscoking3WrongBitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25
53732012-01-152012-04-01siscoking3WrongBitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30
53742012-01-152012-04-01siscoking4WrongBitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35
53752012-01-152012-01-15gwern1WrongNight 15: pill was Vitamin D
53802012-01-162012-01-19HonoreDB2WrongIn the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing.
53812012-01-162012-01-19HonoreDB1RightIn the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days.
53842012-01-162012-01-16gwern1RightNight 16: pill was Vitamin D
53922012-01-172012-06-10spqr0a11WithdrawnChris Shinski will continue teaching at the Adirondack School until at least the end of academic year 2012-2013.
53952012-01-172012-02-04ahartell1RightI got an 80 or higher on my calc quiz.
53962012-01-172012-02-14b.crouzier2WithdrawnI will go to New York city on feb 14 and build an awsome construction
53972012-01-172012-02-14b.crouzier1RightI will go to New York city on feb 14 and build an awsome construction
53982012-01-172013-01-01b.crouzier1Wrongb.crouzier estimated 60% and said “I will have achieved 2m views and 1000 subs on my youtube benjamincrouzier channel at the end of this year.
53992012-01-182012-03-15Anubhav2RightI will be allowed to take the internal exams.
54002012-01-182012-01-18gwern1WrongNight 18: pill was Vitamin D
54012012-01-182999-02-19RobertLumley4WithdrawnBoth Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would.
54022012-01-192012-01-19gwern1WrongNight 19: pill was Vitamin D
54062012-01-192012-01-20Nic_Smith1WrongAfter going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd.
54072012-01-192012-01-20Nic_Smith1WrongAfter going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, Misha rejoins your party.
54112012-01-202012-01-20gwern1RightNight 20: pill was Vitamin D
54152012-01-212012-04-01siscoking4WrongBitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$.
54162012-01-212012-01-21gwern1RightNight 21: pill was Vitamin D
54172012-01-212016-01-01Anubhav10Wrong_HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy
54182012-01-212016-01-01Anubhav11Right_HP MoR_: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did.
54192012-01-212015-01-23gwern13Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk.
54202012-01-222016-01-01Anubhav7Wrong_HP MoR_: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la _Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg_)
54262012-01-222012-01-22gwern1WrongNight 22: pill was Vitamin D
54472012-01-232012-02-22meisnewbie2RightThere will be one sitting of Phantasmagoria of Flower View in the next month where I will go positive against Drakeryn. (Sitting = More than 5 matches where Merlin is not picked)
54482012-01-232012-02-22meisnewbie1RightMercenaries 4 will not have started in one month
54572012-01-232012-01-24Anubhav1WrongWill have college tomorrow.
54582012-01-232012-01-23gwern1WrongNight 23: pill was Vitamin D
54612012-01-232012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1069 Before 1 April 2012, will South Korea officially* announce a policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in 2012?
54622012-01-232012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1068 Will the UN Security Council pass a new measure/resolution directly concerning Syria between 23 January 2012 and 31 March 2012?
54632012-01-232012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1067 Will Traian Basescu resign, lose referendum vote, or vacate the office of President of Romania before 1 April 2012?
54642012-01-232012-04-01gwern1RightGJP: #1066 Will Yemen's next presidential election commence before 1 April 2012?
54652012-01-232012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1064 Will Yousaf Raza Gillani resign, lose confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2012?
54662012-01-232012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1063 Will the Taliban begin official* in-person negotiations with either the US or Afghan government by 1 April 2012?
54672012-01-232012-03-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1070 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012?
54682012-01-242013-01-01Anubhav3WrongFederal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year.
54692012-01-242012-02-15Laurent Bossavit8RightFrance's Sarkozy to run for presidency.
54702012-01-242112-01-01gwern7"We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission" --Dev 2; BBC
54712012-01-242112-01-01gwern4"We will be able to control the weather" --mariebee_; BBC
54722012-01-242112-01-01gwern4'Antarctica will be "open for business"' --Dev 2; BBC
54732012-01-242112-01-01gwern4"Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories" --Alister Brown, BBC
54742012-01-242112-01-01gwern5Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 --Kennys_Heroes, BBC
54752012-01-242112-01-01gwern33"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC
54762012-01-242112-01-01gwern5"80% of the world will have gay marriage" --Paul, BBC
54772012-01-242112-01-01gwern8"Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy" --Ahdok; BBC
54782012-01-242112-01-01gwern4The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012
54792012-01-242112-01-01gwern4"Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government" --krozier93; BBC
54802012-01-242012-11-04gwern4RightNo 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) --knb
54812012-01-242012-12-01gwern6RightUS official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%) --knb
54822012-01-242013-02-01gwern6WrongUnited States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) --knb
54832012-01-242012-03-01gwern1Right"I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize" --Kevin
54842012-01-242013-01-01gwern6Right_HP MoR_: "A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted" --Bugmaster
54852012-01-242013-01-01gwern3Wrong_HP MoR_: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. --Bugmaster
54862012-01-242012-01-30Anubhav2RightEnd Acta petition to the White House will have 25k signatures by Monday.
54872012-01-242012-02-07Anubhav3RightEnd Acta petition to the White house will have 25k signatures in 2 weeks.
54882012-01-242013-01-01Jayson Virissimo3RightI will obtain a CompTIA A+ certification before 2013.
54892012-01-242013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongI will obtain a CompTIA Network+ certification before 2013.
54932012-01-242012-03-01gwern4Wrong"I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)" --Kevin
54962012-01-252012-01-25Anubhav1WrongThe Japanese Language pack install will be successful.
54972012-01-252012-07-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012.
54982012-01-252013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete every tutorial and drill in Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition before 2013.
54992012-01-252012-02-09Leo11RightI will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no.
55042012-01-252013-01-01Anubhav10WrongPredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year.
55092012-01-262012-02-01Anubhav5Wrong"Submit ACTA to Senate" petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month.
55102012-01-262012-02-21Anubhav6Withdrawn"Submit ACTA to the Senate" petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline.
55112012-01-262012-02-20Anubhav6Wrong"Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years" petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline.
55122012-01-262012-01-29JoshuaZ3WrongJeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days.
55132012-01-262012-01-26meisnewbie1RightKefit will die before stage 8 in Asakura P
55162012-01-262012-01-26gwern1WrongNight 26: pill was Vitamin D
55252012-01-272012-01-28Anubhav3RightEliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead.
55262012-01-272012-01-29Anubhav3RightEliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead.
55272012-01-272017-01-27gwern2WrongJaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to _Gf_) will be formally retracted within 5 years
55282012-01-272012-01-27gwern1RightNight 27: pill was Vitamin D
55292012-01-272012-07-27gwern4RightI will unsubscribe from _Erfworld_.
55432012-01-282016-01-01Anubhav11Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect.
55442012-01-282020-01-01gwern4RightHuman whole-genome sequencing <=$1000 by 2020.
55452012-01-282020-01-01gwern7WrongHuman whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020.
55462012-01-282012-02-28gwern1RightSalminen 2012's "reasoning abilities"/"reasoning skills" measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test.
55472012-01-282012-04-28gwern5Wronggwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months --shminux
55482012-01-282012-04-28gwern2RightConditional on being offered a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI, I will accept.
55492012-01-292012-01-29Jayson Virissimo1RightMy nausea will end within 30 minutes of taking 520mg of activated charcoal.
55502012-01-292016-01-01Anubhav7Right_HP MoR_: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat.
55512012-01-292013-01-01Jayson Virissimo5WrongI will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013.
55522012-01-292017-01-29siscoking13WrongA nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years.
55532012-01-292012-01-29gwern1RightNight 28: pill was Vitamin D
55572012-01-292012-11-24Grognor1WrongSuper Mario Bros. Z episode 9 will be released on or before November 24, 2012.
55582012-01-302012-02-04Jach1RightHomework due this week will be done on time
55612012-01-302020-01-01NathanMcKnight3The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020.
55792012-01-312012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1073 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 April 2012 that an agreement has been reached to lend Hungary an additional 15+ Billion Euros?
55802012-01-312012-04-01gwern1RightGJP: #1072 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy before 1 April 2012?
55812012-01-312012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1071 Will Iran and the U.S. commence official nuclear program talks* before 1 April 2012?
55822012-01-312012-03-06gwern1WrongGJP: #1075 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election?
55832012-01-312012-02-15gwern1WrongGJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt?
55842012-01-312012-02-06gwern1RightGJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012?
55852012-01-312025-01-01NathanMcKnight7By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.
55862012-01-312050-01-01NathanMcKnight4WithdrawnBy 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology.
55922012-01-312012-01-31Lemmih1WrongPill was modafinil.
55932012-01-312013-01-01Mqrius1RightMy friend's house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013.
56032012-02-012012-02-08Ben Doherty1RightI will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel.
56042012-02-012112-02-01Anubhav9Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)
56052012-02-012050-01-01Anubhav4Withdrawn2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in sovereign nation-states.
56082012-02-012050-01-01NathanMcKnight11By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb.
56092012-02-012012-02-01Lemmih1WrongPill was modafinil.
56102012-02-012016-01-01Grognor19Right_HP MoR_: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary.
56112012-02-022050-01-01Anubhav42050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion.
56122012-02-022012-02-06Anubhav1Wrong"Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives" petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week.
56132012-02-022012-02-27Anubhav1Right"Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives" petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline.
56142012-02-022012-02-03Lemmih2RightPill was modafinil.
56262012-02-022012-02-03wallowinmaya1WrongI will sleep more than 5 hours tonight, although I took Modafinil.
56312012-02-022013-01-01wallowinmaya2WrongMy grandmother will die this year.
56322012-02-022013-01-01wallowinmaya6WrongI'll get a girlfriend this year.
56372012-02-032020-01-01NathanMcKnight9WrongBy 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace "3D printing" in the media.
56412012-02-032012-02-10Emanuel Rylke2RightI will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday.
56472012-02-032013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will get a boyfriend this year.
56482012-02-032012-02-03gwern1RightNight 33: pill was Vitamin D
56572012-02-032012-02-07Nic_Smith1RightTrain on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes)
56712012-02-042012-02-04gwern1WrongNight 34: pill was Vitamin D
56722012-02-042012-02-05Lemmih2RightPill was modafinil.
56732012-02-042012-05-16smijer1WrongMajor winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012.
56742012-02-042012-02-04OptiMind2RightVi tager på staden før vi går iseng
56752012-02-042012-02-05gwern1Wrongpapermachine will not donate to the Internet Archive
56762012-02-052017-04-01bobpage4RightThere will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017
56772012-02-052012-07-01bobpage7WrongInitial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program
56862012-02-062012-03-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will get a remote researcher position at the Singularity Institute before the end of the month.
56872012-02-062013-02-02Jayson Virissimo4WrongI will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year.
56882012-02-062020-01-01Jayson Virissimo2I will sign up for cryonics before 2020.
56992012-02-062012-02-11gwern1WrongMy armodafinil shipment will arrive within 1 week
57002012-02-062012-02-18gwern1RightMy armodafinil shipment will arrive within 2 weeks
57012012-02-062012-02-25gwern1RightMy armodafinil shipment will arrive within 3 weeks
57022012-02-062012-03-03gwern1RightMy armodafinil shipment will arrive within 4 weeks
57032012-02-072012-03-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete The Pragmatic Programmer before March, 2012.
57072012-02-072012-02-07gwern1RightNight 36: pill was Vitamin D
57082012-02-072013-01-01vinayak15RightThere will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012
57152012-02-072012-12-31gwern1WrongGJP: #1081 Will the Nigerian government and Boko Haram commence official talks before 31 December 2012?
57162012-02-072012-04-10gwern5WrongGJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012?
57172012-02-072012-04-10gwern1WrongGJP: #1082 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012?
57182012-02-072012-04-10gwern1WrongGJP: #1078 Will a Japanese whaling ship enter Australia's territorial waters between 7 February 2012 and 10 April 2012?
57192012-02-072012-02-07wallowinmaya1WrongPill was Bupropion
57202012-02-072012-02-14gwern1RightGJP: #1079 Who will win the 2012 Venezuela presidential primary for a unified opposition candidate to Hugo Chavez? Henrique Capriles Radonski
57302012-02-082012-02-08bobpage1Wrongandroidx86 generic_x86-20120208.iso will boot to a working GUI in VMWare
57312012-02-082013-02-08Leo1RightFriend who initially ignored my coming out will reliably refer to me with male pronouns within the year.
57322012-02-082012-02-14Jayson Virissimo1RightMy Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/13/2012.
57332012-02-082012-02-18Jayson Virissimo1RightMy Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/17/2012.
57342012-02-082012-04-06Jayson Virissimo1RightSets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/05/2012.
57352012-02-082012-04-11Jayson Virissimo1RightSets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/10/2012.
57362012-02-082012-02-29Jayson Virissimo2RightI will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase.
57372012-02-082012-02-08gwern1RightNight 37: pill was Vitamin D
57382012-02-082012-02-08wallowinmaya1RightPill was Bupropion
57442012-02-092012-02-09Jach1RightRecompile of qutecom depending on boost-1.42 instead of boost-1.46 will by itself fix segfault error
57452012-02-092012-02-09gwern1RightNight 38: pill was Vitamin D
57462012-02-092012-02-09wallowinmaya1RightPill was Bupropion
57522012-02-092012-05-21gwern1WrongDaily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period, and the difference will be significant at p<0.05
57532012-02-102012-06-20_W_1WrongPrice of bitcoin to reach $10 before June 20. on MtGox
57542012-02-102012-07-10_W_3RightPrice of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT
57582012-02-102012-02-10Primeval2RightI will make it to the top of camelback mountain tomorrow morning.
57592012-02-102012-10-01JoshuaZ3Right The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) at least until Curiosity lands on Mars.
57602012-02-102012-02-10gwern1WrongNight 39: pill was Vitamin D
57612012-02-102012-02-10wallowinmaya1WrongPill was Bupropion
57652012-02-112012-02-14meisnewbie1WrongDrakeryn gets shot by Chris or gets lynched next Touhou mafia day (numbers)
57662012-02-112012-02-12Lemmih3RightPill was modafinil.
57672012-02-112014-01-01Anubhav1WrongI will not fail a single actuarial exam before 2014.
57682012-02-112012-06-15Anubhav1RightI will score over 60% aggregate on my finals.
57692012-02-112012-06-15Anubhav1RightI will score over 80% aggregate on my finals.
57702012-02-112012-02-11gwern1WrongNight 40: pill was Vitamin D
57712012-02-112012-02-11wallowinmaya1WrongPill was Bupropion
57722012-02-112012-04-01modulus3RightIran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons
57752012-02-122012-02-12gwern1WrongNight 41: pill was Vitamin D
57902012-02-162012-12-31Emanuel Rylke1WrongThe smallest federated wiki will move beyond the stage of proof of concept this year.
57912012-02-162012-02-17Anubhav1RightMy comment on Shiny Ogre's blog will be approved in 24 hours.
57972012-02-182012-03-03meisnewbie1WrongThe Drexler group escaped from the lab because they believed the self destruct system would work and prevent a grey goo scenario. (Baldr Sky)
58092012-02-202018-01-01gwern4NGE: A version of the song "Komm, süsser Tod" will be used in _Rebuild_
58162012-02-202012-02-20Nic_Smith1WrongTemperature outside below 30
58172012-02-202012-02-20Nic_Smith1RightTemperature outside above 40
58182012-02-202012-03-20meisnewbie1WrongThe forum mafia Bayes calculator will be completed within a month.
58192012-02-202012-02-21Nic_Smith2RightRain at apt. tonight or tomorrow morning.
58262012-02-212012-04-01gwern1RightGJP: #1096 Will a civil war break out in Syria between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012?
58272012-02-212012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1092 Will Myanmar release at least 100 more political prisoners between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012?
58282012-02-212012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1091 Will Standard and Poor's downgrade Japan's Foreign Long Term credit rating at any point between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012?
58292012-02-212012-04-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1085 Between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012, will the UN Security Council announce any reduction of its peacekeeping force in Haiti?
58302012-02-212012-04-01gwern2WrongGJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012?
58312012-02-212013-01-04gwern1WrongGJP: #1095 Will there be a significant* outbreak of H5N1 in China in 2012?
58322012-02-212013-01-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1094 Will Zimbabwe commence a presidential election before 1 January 2013?
58332012-02-212013-01-01gwern2WrongGJP: #1093 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013?
58342012-02-212013-01-01gwern6WrongGJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013?
58352012-02-212012-10-20gwern5RightGJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez
58362012-02-212012-06-20gwern4WrongGJP: #1087 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election?
58372012-02-212012-04-14gwern1WrongGJP: #1090 Before 13 April 2012, will the Turkish government officially announce that the Turkish ambassador to France has been recalled?
58382012-02-212012-04-11gwern1WrongGJP: #1086 Will Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Maldives before 10 April 2012?
58602012-02-252025-01-01Anubhav62025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.
58612012-02-252020-01-01Anubhav9Wrong2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.
58622012-02-252020-01-01Anubhav10Wrong2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.
58922012-02-272012-10-26Ben Doherty3WrongThere will be 100 or more comments on our new site within 2 months of it launching
58972012-02-272012-03-05faws3WrongChrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday.
58982012-02-272012-02-28Ben Doherty1RightI will have enough student's to run my studio
58992012-02-272012-02-28Ben Doherty1RightI'll make it out of studio by 4:45
59122012-02-282014-02-23bobpage3WrongConditional on competing in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics, Yuna Kim will win a gold medal
59162012-02-292013-12-20Anubhav13RightFirst-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of _Deathly Hallows_ (44 million according to Wikipedia.)
59202012-03-012013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will continue posting on my blog until the end of this year.
59212012-03-012012-03-01doctor_regtools5RightIT / Scarlet Tea & Cakes 1/3/2012
59222012-03-012017-03-01gwern6WrongA Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination.
59302012-03-022012-03-09chemotaxis1013Right[Russia] Vladimir Putin will receive at least 60% of the vote (official election results).
59312012-03-022012-03-03Ben Doherty1RightFlight TT543 will be within 10 minutes of on time arrival into Melbourne
59322012-03-022013-03-01RandomThinker8WrongWindows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now).
59332012-03-022012-06-16RandomThinker3RightMiami Heat will win NBA championship in 2012
59382012-03-042012-12-16PaulAlesius3WrongThe Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012.
59412012-03-052014-06-16RandomThinker1RightJeremy Lin's NBA career will last over 2 years (defining he's done if he doesn't play more than 250 mins a season -- around 3 minutes a game)
59422012-03-052012-05-20RandomThinker2RightPhiladelphia will get past the first round of the 2012 NBA playoffs
59432012-03-052013-03-01RandomThinker1WithdrawnGoogle TV will be more successful than Apple TV in 12 months (hard to measure, will have to be judged qualitatively)
59442012-03-052012-05-01RandomThinker1RightCDS on Greek Debt will be triggered by May 1 (about 6 weeks)
59452012-03-052020-01-01Anubhav9WrongAn off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020.
59462012-03-052030-01-01Anubhav10An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.
59492012-03-052012-12-31roshni1RightI'll be able to stick to my 2012 New Year resolution of 'no mammal meat for a year' till Dec 31, 2012.
59502012-03-052012-11-01papermachine3RightAssassin's Creed 3 will be available in the United States by October 31, 2012
59512012-03-052012-11-01papermachine4RightThe character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin's Creed 3.
59522012-03-052012-11-01papermachine1WrongAres/Mars will make an on-screen appearance in Assassin's Creed 3, as a member of the First Civilization.
59612012-03-062013-01-01gwern1WrongGJP: #1098 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between 6 March 2012 and 31 December 2012?
59622012-03-062012-10-02gwern2RightGJP: #1102 Will Ireland ratify the European Fiscal Compact in a referendum vote before 1 October 2012?
59652012-03-062012-04-02gwern4WrongGJP: #1103 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees?
59662012-03-062012-04-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1101 Will Laurent Lamothe be ratified as Haiti’s Prime Minister before 1 April 2012?
59672012-03-062012-04-02gwern1WrongGJP: #1099 Before 1 April 2012, will Al-Saadi Gaddafi be extradited to Libya?
59682012-03-062012-04-02gwern2RightGJP: #1097 Will Tunisia officially announce an extension of its current state of emergency before 1 April 2012?
59692012-03-062012-03-09wajdiatwah7WrongThe week end class trip won't happen due to rain
59702012-03-062012-04-01Christopher1RightI will read through Alicorn's Living Luminously sequence by the end of March. Any skimming not made up for will result as a failure.
59712012-03-062013-03-05RandomThinker2WrongChinese stock market index will be higher 1 year from now (measured by SSE, which is 2410 right now, on Mar 5, 2013)
59722012-03-062014-03-01RandomThinker1RightDespite Kindle and other competition, iPads won't be significantly cheaper over the next 2 years. Measured by MSRP of newest model in base configuration not falling below $399 (it's $499 right now)
59732012-03-062013-11-01RandomThinker1WrongiPad market share in Tablets will stay above 50% through November 1 2013 (2 years after Kindle release)
59752012-03-062013-03-01RandomThinker6WrongWindows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now)
59762012-03-062012-07-01Anubhav1WrongKerala High Court hears a PIL against India's IT rules.
59772012-03-062020-01-01Anubhav10At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.
59782012-03-062020-01-01Anubhav6WrongBy 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such).
59792012-03-062013-01-01roshni1RightHamza Kashgari will live to see 2013.
59882012-03-072012-08-16RandomThinker3WrongPeyton Manning will sign with the Redskins
59892012-03-072012-11-16RandomThinker1RightYu Darvish will have a good year (>150 innings, <4 ERA)
59902012-03-072013-01-16RandomThinker3RightScientists will confirm discovery of Higgs Boson by end of 2012
59962012-03-072012-03-19williamycai1WrongI will complete the advanced revit modelling assessment 1 week before the due date. Due 24/3/2012 but I'll finish before the 18th.
59972012-03-072012-03-08williamycai1RightTutor will post up choice results and I will get my choice of selected reading; delirious new york, for the subjection "the city"
59982012-03-072022-01-01RandomThinker2Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024)
60062012-03-082012-03-09Ben Doherty1WithdrawnI’ll complete 1 or more tasks from my rtm list tomorrow
60242012-03-092012-05-08Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today.
60492012-03-122012-04-12gwern14Wrong>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month
60932012-03-162017-03-16papermachine2WrongXiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two.
60942012-03-162013-03-16papermachine2WrongXiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year.
61062012-03-192012-03-20bobpage2RightApple will announce a dividend on their March 19, 2012 conference call
61072012-03-192012-03-22williamycai1RightThe hunger games will not meet wife's expectations and will disappoint her
61082012-03-192012-03-19Ben Doherty1WrongThere will be 20 or more people at tonight's compDesGrp session
61092012-03-192012-03-22Anubhav4Wrong_HP MoR_: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80.
61102012-03-192012-04-09Anubhav2Withdrawn_HP MoR_: Conditional on prediction 6109, Hermione Granger will be transformed into a House-Elf before chapter 85.
61362012-03-222012-04-02Jach1RightWrestleMania XXVIII: The Undertaker defeats Triple H
61372012-03-222012-04-02Jach1RightWrestleMania XXVIII: CM Punk defeats Chris Jericho
61382012-03-222012-04-02Jach1WrongWrestleMania XXVIII: Randy Orton defeats Kane
61392012-03-222012-04-02Jach1WrongWrestleMania XXVIII: Cody Rhodes defeats Big Show
61472012-03-232012-03-28gwern21Right_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser
61482012-03-232012-03-28gwern11Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members
61492012-03-232012-03-28gwern14Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom
61502012-03-232012-03-28gwern12Right_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban
61512012-03-232012-03-28gwern14Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape
61522012-03-232012-03-28gwern10Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel)
61532012-03-232012-03-28gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be accept Hermione's imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone
61542012-03-232012-03-28gwern10Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors
61552012-03-232012-03-28gwern14Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat
61562012-03-232012-03-28gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime
61572012-03-232012-03-28Anubhav11WrongHP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming.
61582012-03-232012-03-28gwern11Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way
61592012-03-232012-03-28gwern9Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable
61602012-03-232012-03-28gwern9Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way
61612012-03-232012-03-28gwern11Wrong_HP MoR_: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak
61642012-03-232012-03-28beo_shaffer8Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy.
61712012-03-242012-03-27williamycai1RightI will be able to meet with my friend on tuesday afternoon 3pm, because design studio will run short.
61812012-03-252012-06-20HamletHenna5WrongHazem Salah Abu Ismail will be the next Egyptian president.
61922012-03-262012-04-12meisnewbie2WrongMoogy will finish both '&' and TDA02 before Mahoyo releases
61932012-03-262012-04-12meisnewbie2WrongMoogy will finish Mahoyo in one sitting on the day of release
62012012-03-262012-12-31Leo1WrongAmadou Toumani Toure known dead on Dec 31
62022012-03-262013-12-31Leo1WrongAmadou Toumani Toure regains power in Mali
62032012-03-262013-12-31Leo2WrongMalian junta remains in power
62042012-03-262012-12-31Leo2WrongElections judged democratic by foreign observers held in Mali
62072012-03-262012-12-31Leo4WrongForeign military intervention in Mali
62102012-03-272012-04-09happyday4Wrongi won't get present for easter at all
62202012-03-282013-09-28Ben Doherty1WrongAccountability metrics will become a significant topic
62212012-03-282012-03-28happyday1Righttonight's dinner will be end before 9pm
62222012-03-282013-11-16RandomThinker2WrongMichael Jordan will sell or become passive owner of the Bobcats by start of 2013-14 NBA season
62232012-03-282013-12-31RandomThinker3RightRequesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013
62242012-03-282012-12-01RandomThinker3RightFacebook will settle with Yahoo on its patent suit by end of 2012
62252012-03-282013-02-01RandomThinker1WrongTebow will start at least 1 NFL game next year (2012-13 NFL season)
62312012-03-282012-05-15williamycai2RightMy brother will become interested in Diablo 3 before the release date under the influence of his friends.
62502012-03-292013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will obtain the CompTIA Security+ certification before 2013.
62512012-03-292013-01-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will obtain the CompTIA Linux+ Powered by LPI certification before 2013.
62522012-03-292012-03-31Jayson Virissimo2RightMy wife and I will complete the 2nd version of the business plan within the next 36 hours.
62532012-03-302012-03-30happyday1Rightwe will have sushi for dinner tonight
62542012-03-302012-03-30happyday1Wrongi will buy a lip stick during the weekend
62552012-03-302012-04-20happyday4Wrongwe will going away (gold coast, carins)during easter holiday
62662012-03-312014-06-16RandomThinker5WrongMurder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr)
62722012-03-312020-06-01spqr0a11Chris Shinski will like J-pop in 2020.
62752012-03-312012-08-01waveman2WrongI will have achieved intermediate level on all my one remaining weightlifting lift as defined in my spreadsheet. ie Bench press 20 reps at 38kg.
62762012-03-312012-08-01waveman3WrongI will have workable futures trading strategy in place.
62772012-03-312012-07-31waveman2WrongI will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. Currently I am at about 15% Body Fat.
62872012-04-012012-07-01RandomThinker3WrongNot including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Starcraft 2 (measured by 1st month sales - Starcraft 2 sold 3 million units).
62882012-04-012012-07-01RandomThinker4RightIncluding consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Skyrim (1st month sales = 7 million)
62892012-04-012012-06-01RandomThinker2RightObama's world bank candidate, Jim Kim, will win the position
62902012-04-012012-06-10mat3310Wrong_HP MoR_: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement.
62912012-04-012012-06-10mat3310Wrong_HP MoR_: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's "purchase").
62922012-04-012013-07-04mat339WrongHPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship.
62932012-04-012015-07-01mat3310WrongHPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words.
62942012-04-012012-05-11JeffreyTse4RightJeremy Lin will not return to the NBA this season.
62952012-04-012012-04-02JeffreyTse3WrongI will win my Yahoo Fantasy Basketball round 7-2.
62962012-04-012012-04-03JeffreyTse4RightThere will be a maximum of 3 people who have further contributed to my stats on google docs by Tuesday.
63032012-04-022012-04-02happyday1Righti will cook and wash the dishes for us tonight!
63062012-04-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will finish The Complete Idiot's Guide to Learning Latin before the end of the year.
63182012-04-032012-04-03JeffreyTse1WithdrawnThere will be a maximum of 2 people who show up from my studio before midday.
63192012-04-032012-04-13JeffreyTse2RightNobody will spend more than 4 hours in the studio space 3 days in a row between now and the first submission.
63232012-04-032012-12-04williamycai2WrongI will spend more than 24 hrs in total in the studios between now and assignment due date.
63242012-04-032012-07-04happyday1RightWe will go to the royal easter show on friday this week, and see the cat and dog show as i wished.
63252012-04-032012-04-07happyday1Rightfriday will be 'Sunny' as the weather report has suggested
63332012-04-042012-04-08happyday2WrongI'm going to book sky diving and attened it during the easter holiday.
63342012-04-042014-04-03quicklystarfish1WrongMy friend J.S. will consider Notch's game 0x10c to have been one of the best games of all time within two years.
63352012-04-042012-04-30RandomThinker1WrongSantorum will win the Pennsylvania primary
63382012-04-042012-04-05Sarokrae1WrongIt will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm.
63392012-04-042012-06-25Sarokrae3WrongI will be get a first this year
63402012-04-042012-06-25Sarokrae2RightI will get a 2:1 this year
63412012-04-042012-09-01Sarokrae1RightI will visit China this summer
63422012-04-042012-04-29Sarokrae1WrongI will get a principal recall for Ruddigore
63432012-04-042012-04-29Sarokrae1WrongI will get no recall at all for Ruddigore
63442012-04-042012-04-29Sarokrae1RightI will get a chorus recall for Ruddigore
63452012-04-042012-04-05Sarokrae1RightI will gain at least one more Pinterest follower by this time tomorrow
63462012-04-042012-06-25Sarokrae1WrongI will get an alpha for the CATAM project on continued fractions
63472012-04-042012-06-25Sarokrae2RightI will get an alpha for the CATAM project on hypothesis testing
63482012-04-042012-04-05Sarokrae2RightI will gain at least one Pinterest follower who is a "real person" (has pinned things, pins don't contain spam links) by this time tomorrow
63492012-04-042016-01-01gwern14Right_HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts
63502012-04-042016-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts
63512012-04-042016-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts
63522012-04-042016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts
63532012-04-042013-01-01gwern5Right_HP MoR_: >= 6 chapters of 2+ pages length published in 2012
63572012-04-042015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort
63582012-04-042015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black
63592012-04-042015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin
63602012-04-042015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak
63632012-04-042015-01-01gwern3_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what is the important task McGonagall was called away from
63642012-04-042016-01-01gwern2_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel
63652012-04-042016-01-01gwern2_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes
63662012-04-042016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves
63672012-04-042016-01-01gwern10Wrong_HP MoR_: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.)
63682012-04-042016-01-01gwern13Right_HP MoR_: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46
63692012-04-052016-01-01gwern7Right_HP MoR_: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes
63702012-04-052016-01-01gwern9Wrong_HP MoR_: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest
63712012-04-052016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis
63722012-04-052015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Sybil Trelawney will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy when she comes within earshot of Harry
63732012-04-052016-01-01gwern13Wrong_HP MoR_: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort
63742012-04-052016-01-01gwern12Right_HP MoR_: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point
63752012-04-052016-01-01gwern8Right_HP MoR_: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character
63762012-04-052016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83
63772012-04-052016-01-01gwern13Right_HP MoR_: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83
63782012-04-052016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary
63792012-04-052016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary
63802012-04-052016-01-01gwern14Wrong_HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux
63812012-04-052016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel
63822012-04-052016-01-01gwern9Wrong_HP MoR_: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter
63832012-04-052016-01-01gwern11Wrong_HP MoR_: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human
63842012-04-052016-01-01gwern9Wrong_HP MoR_: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection
63852012-04-052016-01-01gwern6Right_HP MoR_: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. _Death Note_)
63862012-04-052012-05-15williamycai3RightI will get 'pass' for the city assignment 01.
64032012-04-052016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her.
64042012-04-052016-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: Lucius Malfoy *was*, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater
64052012-04-052016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry
64062012-04-052016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry
64072012-04-052016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete
64082012-04-052016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore
64092012-04-052016-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel
64102012-04-052015-01-01gwern8Right_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley
64112012-04-052015-01-01gwern12Right_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter
64122012-04-052016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name
64132012-04-052016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published
64142012-04-052016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents
64152012-04-052016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article
64282012-04-072025-01-01Turtleread3Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country.
64312012-04-072012-04-07gwern1RightZeo vitamin D morning: Week 3 & 4: placebo then vitamin D
64322012-04-072012-04-09gwern1RightZeo vitamin D morning: Week 5 & 6: placebo then vitamin D
64332012-04-072015-01-01gwern3Right_HP MoR_: Harry will stay at Hogwarts during Easter and his parents will visit him
64342012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Right_HP MoR_: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body
64352012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it
64362012-04-072016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person.
64372012-04-072016-01-01gwern7Right_HP MoR_: Harry is a horcrux
64382012-04-072016-01-01gwern6Right_HP MoR_: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse)
64392012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact)
64402012-04-072016-01-01gwern15Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects
64412012-04-072016-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all
64422012-04-072016-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will bite a teacher
64432012-04-072016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first
64442012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first and is Quirrel
64452012-04-072016-01-01gwern6Right_HP MoR_: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point
64462012-04-072016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn't age (eg. a basilisk)
64472012-04-072016-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix
64482012-04-072016-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human
64492012-04-072016-01-01gwern10Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor
64502012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort
64512012-04-072016-01-01gwern7Right_HP MoR_: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness
64522012-04-072016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone
64532012-04-072016-01-01gwern5_HP MoR_: the original Quirrel killed his parents
64542012-04-072016-01-01gwern9Right_HP MoR_: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense
64552012-04-072016-01-01gwern4Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle)
64562012-04-072016-01-01gwern4Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel
64572012-04-072016-01-01gwern7Right_HP MoR_: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la _Philosopher's Stone_)
64582012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else
64592012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel is Harry from the future
64602012-04-072016-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective
64612012-04-072016-01-01gwern4Wrong_HP MoR_: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die
64672012-04-082016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone
64682012-04-082016-01-01gwern9Wrong_HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone
64692012-04-082016-01-01gwern16Right_HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock
64702012-04-082016-01-01gwern11Wrong_HP MoR_: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter
64712012-04-082016-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever
64722012-04-082015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry
64732012-04-082015-01-01gwern6Right_HP MoR_: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this
64742012-04-082015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Voldemort is Quirrel's wand or is contained within it
64752012-04-082015-01-01gwern6Right_HP MoR_: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83
64762012-04-082015-01-01gwern3Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat has Obliviated Blaise Zabini's mother
64772012-04-082015-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Severus Snape
64782012-04-082015-01-01gwern8Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore
64792012-04-082015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Harry (future or present)
64802012-04-082015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Leroy Lockhart
64812012-04-082015-01-01gwern4Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Sybil Trelawney
64822012-04-082015-01-01gwern4Wrong_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost)
64832012-04-082015-01-01gwern18Right_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel
64842012-04-082015-01-01gwern10Wrong_HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy is dead
64852012-04-082015-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort
64862012-04-082015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself
64872012-04-082015-01-01gwern10Wrong_HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle)
64882012-04-082015-01-01gwern10Wrong_HP MoR_: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones
64892012-04-082015-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy by accident
64902012-04-082015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux
64912012-04-082015-01-01gwern7Wrong_HP MoR_: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives
64922012-04-082051-01-01Grognor10By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.
65012012-04-092015-01-01gwern5Wrong_HP MoR_: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux
65022012-04-092015-01-01gwern8Right_HP MoR_: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban
65032012-04-092015-01-01gwern12Right_HP MoR_: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew
65042012-04-092015-01-01gwern6Wrong_HP MoR_: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts
65052012-04-092015-01-01gwern10Right_HP MoR_: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic
65062012-04-092013-04-09quicklystarfish7WrongApple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices.
65072012-04-092015-01-01gwern4Withdrawn_HP MoR_: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited
65082012-04-092015-01-01gwern4Withdrawn_HP MoR_: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited
65092012-04-092015-01-01gwern12Wrong_HP MoR_: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83
65182012-04-102012-04-10happyday2RightMy husband won't sleep before 3am today because he can't finish his vedio clip for design.
65192012-04-102012-04-10Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 26 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours.
65202012-04-102013-01-01bobpage6WrongI will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013
65212012-04-102016-12-31RandomThinker9RightWe'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k)
65252012-04-112012-06-11Ben Doherty1RightOne or more people from outside the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term.
65262012-04-112012-06-11Ben Doherty1WrongOne or more people from the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term
65342012-04-112015-01-01gwern4Wrong_HP MoR_: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. 'Tom Riddle')
65352012-04-112015-01-01gwern2Right_HP MoR_: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is the spirit of Voldemort or Riddle
65502012-04-122012-04-12Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 5 hours.
65512012-04-122013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4RightI will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013.
65522012-04-122012-04-12Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition within the next 5 hours.
65532012-04-122015-01-01gwern3Wrong_HP MoR_: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the appearance of a marked Riddle or Voldemort on the map in places without people
65542012-04-132012-04-13Ben Doherty1WrongMy students will take me up on the offer of a case of beer for today's reviews.
65552012-04-132012-04-13Ben Doherty2Right9 or more students will present in today's reviews (my studio)
65562012-04-132017-09-05gwern12Wrong_HP MoR_: _MoR_ will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017
65732012-04-142012-04-14Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will finish my physics Anki deck within the next 5 hours.
65742012-04-142012-06-30RandomThinker4WrongThe Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX)
65752012-04-142013-01-01RandomThinker4Rightiphone 5 won't have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S
65762012-04-142012-06-01Jayson Virissimo2RightMy "Master Deck" for Anki will exceed 2,000 flash cards before June, 2012.
65812012-04-152012-04-15ShadyPharmacist2Wronggwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus.
65822012-04-152012-06-18ShadyPharmacist1WrongI will come to respect those people who endeavor to know systems of thought, fail, and yet still pretend comprehension/mastery when presenting the topic to others.
65832012-04-152012-04-16ShadyPharmacist1RightOf the 25 questions listed as unanswered within my specialties tonight on drugs.com that I answer, 15 of them will within 2 hours have a second answer which restates out of context my own, 5 that are just links to webmd.com or a similar site, 1 will be re
65842012-04-152012-04-15Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 6 hours.
65852012-04-152012-06-15gwern3WrongIn my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored.
65862012-04-152012-06-15gwern2WrongIn my Wikipedia experiment, >=50% of the links will be restored.
65912012-04-172035-01-01JoshuaZ1Determining if a knot is unknotted will be shown to be unconditionally in NP intersect co-NP by 2035.
65962012-04-182016-01-01ArisKatsaris2WrongHP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because people will be uncertain whether Harry's points ought go to Slytherin or Ravenclaw.
66022012-04-182014-01-01Ami8Wrong_HP MoR_: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder)
66082012-04-182015-01-01gwern13Right_HP MoR_: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder)
66152012-04-192012-09-19papermachine2WrongHomestuck: Eridan will be prototyped into a kernelsprite by himself.
66162012-04-192012-09-19papermachine1WrongHomestuck: Nepeta and Equius are prototyped together into Dirk's kernelsprite
66172012-04-192012-09-19papermachine1WrongHomestuck: Sollux and Feferi are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite
66182012-04-192012-09-19papermachine1WrongHomestuck: Feferi and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite
66192012-04-192012-09-19papermachine1WrongHomestuck: Sollux and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite
66202012-04-192013-04-19papermachine1WithdrawnHomestuck: Jane, Roxy, and Dirk attain God Tier before the beginning of Act 7.
66212012-04-192022-10-10beo_shaffer9WrongGiven that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index
66222012-04-192012-04-25Cy Fleming1WrongThe Pittsburgh Penguins will defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in 7 games in the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs
66272012-04-192015-01-01gwern4Wrong_HP MoR_: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter
66282012-04-192013-04-01lweismantel11RightNosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications
66452012-04-222018-04-22gwern5RightReplication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains.
66652012-04-232012-04-23Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 7 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 5 hours.
66762012-04-242012-07-01DetroitDan1WrongSupreme Court will uphold individual mandate in "ObamaCare".
66812012-04-242012-09-01RandomThinker5WrongJeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick
66822012-04-242013-01-01gwern1RightGSoC 2012: "Patch Index Optimization for Darcs"
66832012-04-242013-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2012: "Scoutess - a build manager for cabal projects"
66842012-04-242013-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2012: "Implement Concurrent Hash-table / Hash map"
66852012-04-242013-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2012: "Accelerating Haskell Application Development"
66862012-04-242013-01-01gwern1RightGSoC 2012: "Sandboxed builds and isolated environments for Cabal"
66872012-04-242013-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2012: "Enable GHC to use multiple instances of a package for compilation"
66882012-04-242013-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2012: "multiuser browser-based interactive ghci, hpaste.org meets tryhaskell.org, for improved teaching of those new to Haskell."
66892012-04-242013-01-01gwern1WithdrawnGSoC 2012: "Haskell-Type-Exts"
66952012-04-252012-04-25Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 4 hours.
66962012-04-252020-01-01RandomThinker10RightPlanetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020
66972012-04-252012-12-31Emanuel Rylke2RightI will still learn French by the end of the year.
67132012-04-262013-01-31Selector8Wrong3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well.
67202012-04-272012-04-28gwern1RightZeo vitamin D morning: Week 7 &8: placebo then vitamin D
67432012-04-302012-04-30Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours.
67542012-05-012022-05-01gwern14Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.
67552012-05-012016-12-31RandomThinker4WrongLooking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft "got" social networking better than Google.
67582012-05-022012-05-02Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
67592012-05-022012-06-06scott.arbeitman1Wronghttp://dkmvs.com/ will rank #1 on Google searches for "dick moves" in Australia
67602012-05-022013-05-03Leo7WrongI will attempt suicide this year
67692012-05-032012-07-02Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days.
67702012-05-032012-08-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days.
67712012-05-032012-08-31Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days.
67722012-05-032012-09-30Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots within the next 150 days.
67732012-05-032012-05-04papermachine1RightI will finish a second draft of my article before my advisor meeting tomorrow.
67742012-05-032014-05-03papermachine14WrongEliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years.
67842012-05-052012-05-05pkfalu921RightBy 12am tonight, I will have written my HIS paper.
67852012-05-052012-09-01pkfalu922WrongBy the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian.
67862012-05-052012-09-01pkfalu922WrongBy the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian.
68092012-05-052012-12-31RandomThinker2RightYahoo will change CEO's before end of 2012
68102012-05-052012-12-31RandomThinker1RightDewey LaBoeuf (law firm) will cease to exist by the end of 2012
68112012-05-052012-05-10RandomThinker1WrongKnicks will be swept in the first round of NBA playoffs
68122012-05-052012-05-30RandomThinker1RightThe margin of victory in the French election will be less than 5 points
68132012-05-052020-12-31RandomThinker6RightJapan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020
68142012-05-052013-12-31RandomThinker4WrongFacebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013
68152012-05-052012-06-01RandomThinker3WrongFacebook IPO price will "pop" above $45 on first day
68732012-05-092013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013.
68772012-05-092013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2RightI will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013.
68802012-05-102012-12-31Grognor10WrongI will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012.
69112012-05-102012-06-10gwern2WrongRutaesomn will offer to send me some free pills.
69122012-05-102012-12-31RandomThinker4WrongThere'll be no iPad Mini in 2012
69162012-05-112078-01-01Jayson Virissimo5I will still be alive in 2078.
69342012-05-122013-12-31RandomThinker2WrongThere'll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013
69432012-05-132072-12-31RandomThinker6Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life
69442012-05-132012-12-31RandomThinker4WrongAvengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b)
69452012-05-132012-12-31RandomThinker3WrongAvengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b)
69462012-05-132012-12-31RandomThinker1RightAvengers will outgross Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (global box office > 1.32b)
69472012-05-132012-07-01RandomThinker1RightThe movie Battleship will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 107.2m per HSX)
69812012-05-162012-05-16Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
69822012-05-162012-05-16Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my Anki physics deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 10 hours.
70382012-05-212012-05-21Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
70432012-05-222012-12-31RandomThinker1RightNY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year.
70442012-05-222013-06-01RandomThinker2RightGoogle will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013
70472012-05-222012-05-30Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will achieve a passing score on practice test #2.
70482012-05-222012-05-24Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will achieve a passing score on both practice tests.
70502012-05-222012-07-01Jayson Virissimo1RightMy Anki flashcard deck will exceed 3,000 cards before July, 2012.
70512012-05-222012-05-30Jayson Virissimo1RightMy MCT Oil will arrive on or before 05/30/2012.
70522012-05-222012-06-08Jayson Virissimo1RightMy MCT Oil will arrive on or before my birthday.
70622012-05-252032-01-01RandomThinker18Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032
70632012-05-252013-12-31RandomThinker5Wrong> 500m will use Windows 8 by end of 2013 -- Steve Ballmer
70642012-05-252012-07-15RandomThinker1WrongThe movie Prometheus will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 168m @ HSX)
70702012-05-252020-01-01NathanMcKnight7WrongTentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020.
70712012-05-252020-01-01NathanMcKnight5The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals)
70772012-05-262012-12-31RandomThinker8RightFacebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012
71302012-05-302022-01-01RandomThinker2One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022.
71342012-05-302012-05-30Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 1 of the All-In-One LPIC-1/CompTIA Linux+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours.
71352012-05-302012-05-30Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
71362012-05-302012-05-30Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 4 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
71372012-05-302012-05-30Jayson Virissimo1RightI will finish practice test #2 within the next 10 hours.
71422012-05-312012-05-31Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 3 hours.
71452012-06-012012-12-31RandomThinker1RightJohn Edwards won't be retried
71462012-06-012052-01-01RandomThinker2Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life
71572012-06-032012-06-03Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 5 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
71582012-06-032012-06-03Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
71592012-06-032012-06-15Nic_Smith4RightThe "top contributor" for Humble Bundle V will equal or exceed $10000.
71632012-06-032012-06-07chemotaxis1011WrongThe Los Angeles Kings will win this year's Stanley Cup by a 4-0 victory over New Jersey Devils in the final series currently underway.
71702012-06-032012-08-01Primeval2WrongI will apply to at least 1 graduate school by the end of the summer.
71732012-06-042012-06-04Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours.
71892012-06-042012-10-01RandomThinker1WrongiPad Mini will launch in September 2012 -- Brian White, Topeka Capital Markets
71902012-06-042012-09-19shubham1Wrongwhen i get a girlfriend
71952012-06-052012-06-05Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
72142012-06-062012-06-06Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will read chapter I and II of GEB within the next 10 hours.
72252012-06-072012-06-14gwern1WrongGwern will get the matrix IQ test data from Fitzgerald 2012 --shminux
72262012-06-072013-06-01RandomThinker8WrongMubarak will have passed away by mid 2013
72302012-06-072012-07-01chimpsky2RightSpain will win Euro 2012
72312012-06-072012-07-01chimpsky1WrongEngland will win Euro 2012
72322012-06-072012-07-01chimpsky1WrongHolland will win Euro 2012
72332012-06-072014-12-31chimpsky3WrongManmohan Singh will be reelected as prime minister of India in 2014
72342012-06-072013-01-01chimpsky3WrongThe United States reestablishes its embassy in Tehran by the end of 2012
72352012-06-072012-07-01chimpsky1WrongAn earthquake >8 on Richter scale occurs in California in June 2012
72362012-06-072014-12-31chimpsky12WrongScotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum
72562012-06-102012-06-10Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
72572012-06-102012-06-10Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
72582012-06-102012-11-07Tuxedage1RightObama will win the 2012 United States presidential Elections.
72592012-06-102020-01-01chimpsky3RightF. Castro outlives Thatcher
72602012-06-102012-06-10chimpsky2RightNadal wins the 2012 French Open
72612012-06-102012-11-01RandomThinker1WrongKevin Garnett will retire before the beginning of 2012-2013 season
72652012-06-112012-06-11Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
72662012-06-112012-06-11Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
72712012-06-112013-06-11asdasdqwe3WrongFacebook will be worth $100 Billion.
72772012-06-122012-06-12Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
72782012-06-122012-06-12Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours.
72812012-06-122013-06-01RandomThinker5RightZynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013
72852012-06-132013-06-06NathanMcKnight1WrongAt least one story in Kazaka Press's Bronies anthology will win a Nebula award in 2013.
72862012-06-132013-05-01NathanMcKnight1WrongAt least one story in Kazka Press's Bronies anthology will be nominated for a 2013 Nebula award.
72872012-06-132012-06-13Jayson Virissimo1RightI will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours.
72882012-06-132012-06-13Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
72912012-06-132012-12-01Jayson Virissimo5WrongThe Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012.
72922012-06-132012-12-01Jayson Virissimo7WrongNeither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012.
72932012-06-132013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongAfter the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Socialist Party.
72942012-06-132013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongAfter the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Labor Party.
72952012-06-132013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1RightAfter the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the People's Party for Freedom.
72962012-06-132014-02-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongAfter the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Social Democrat Party.
72972012-06-132014-02-01Jayson Virissimo2RightAfter the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Christian Democrat Party.
73052012-06-142012-06-14Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours.
73062012-06-142012-06-14Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my geometry flashcard deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 5 hours.
73102012-06-142012-07-05tadrinth2WrongIn Diablo 3 patch 1.0.3, the life on hit/proc coefficient for Fists of Thunder's Thunderclap rune will be reduced.
73262012-06-172012-06-19RandomThinker1RightSyriza won't win the most votes (out of all the parties) in the Greek election
73372012-06-182012-06-18Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours.
73382012-06-182012-06-18Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
73422012-06-182012-06-18Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 4 hours.
73502012-06-192012-06-19Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours.
73512012-06-192012-06-19Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 12 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
73522012-06-192012-06-19Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 7 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours.
73532012-06-192012-06-19Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
73562012-06-192014-06-19JoshuaZ5RightSky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years.
73572012-06-192012-06-20RandomThinker1RightMiami Heat will win game 4 of the NBA finals
73612012-06-202012-06-20Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 8 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours.
73622012-06-202012-06-20Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will read chapter 2 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours.
73632012-06-202012-06-20Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours.
73642012-06-202012-06-20Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours.
73652012-06-202014-01-01bobpage7RightEcuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014
73882012-06-242012-06-24Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 13 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
73892012-06-242012-06-24Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
73982012-06-252012-06-25Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 15 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
73992012-06-252012-06-25Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
74002012-06-252012-06-25Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
74012012-06-252012-06-25Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
74112012-06-272012-06-27Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
74182012-06-282032-06-28gwern2I will be using Bash in 20 years
74192012-06-282022-06-28gwern3I will be using Firefox in 10 years
74202012-06-282032-06-28gwern2I will be using Firefox in 20 years
74212012-06-282022-06-28gwern4I will be using Emacs in 10 years
74222012-06-282032-06-28gwern2I will be using Emacs in 20 years
74232012-06-282022-06-28gwern6I will be using Linux in 10 years
74242012-06-282032-06-28gwern2I will be using Linux in 20 years
74252012-06-292012-06-30papermachine2WrongThe honorarium I'll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be between 75 and 125 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.)
74262012-06-292012-06-30papermachine2RightThe honorarium I’ll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be more than 126 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.)
74362012-07-012012-07-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours.
74372012-07-012012-07-01Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 1 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours.
74382012-07-012012-07-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours.
74392012-07-012013-06-01RandomThinker6WrongAssuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013
74432012-07-022013-01-01NathanMcKnight1WrongWorld record high temperature will reach or exceed 140 °F in 2012.
74482012-07-022012-07-02Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
74492012-07-022012-07-02Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
74502012-07-022013-01-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongI will be hired as a 'crime analyst' before 2013.
74512012-07-022012-07-03Christopher4WrongMy plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow
74522012-07-022013-01-31sucrenoir6RightAAPL share prices will reach $700 before December 2013
74532012-07-022013-07-01sucrenoir7WrongFacebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM)
74542012-07-022012-07-09sucrenoir3WrongDjokovic will win wimbledon 2012
74552012-07-022012-07-09Jayson Virissimo4WrongMy "shaming" comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now.
74582012-07-032012-07-03Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours.
74592012-07-032012-07-03Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours.
74602012-07-032012-07-03Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours.
74612012-07-032013-01-03papermachine1WrongThe picture of an Intel processor on http://www.appliedrationality.org/rationality/ is under copyright and was used without permission.
74622012-07-032012-08-07Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 5 weeks.
74632012-07-032012-08-14Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 6 weeks.
74642012-07-032012-08-21Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 7 weeks.
74652012-07-032012-08-03Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next month.
74662012-07-032012-09-03Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 2 months.
74672012-07-032012-10-03Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 3 months.
74682012-07-042012-07-04Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours.
74692012-07-042012-07-04Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours.
74702012-07-042012-07-04Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours.
74862012-07-082012-07-08Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours.
74872012-07-082012-07-08Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 19 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours.
74882012-07-082012-07-08Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
74892012-07-082012-07-12Jayson Virissimo1Wrong'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/12/2012.
74902012-07-082012-07-17Jayson Virissimo1Right'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/17/2012.
74912012-07-082012-09-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongBloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an accounting profit before 09/2012.
74922012-07-082012-09-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongBloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an economic profit before 09/2012.
74932012-07-082012-11-01Jayson Virissimo15WrongPope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012.
74962012-07-092012-07-09Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours.
74972012-07-092012-07-09Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete chapter 20 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours.
74982012-07-092012-07-09Jayson Virissimo1RightI will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours.
74992012-07-092012-07-09Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will trim and reorganize my Anki deck within the next 8 hours.
75232012-07-122013-03-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will have two or more offspring before 03/2013.
75242012-07-122013-03-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will have three or more offspring before 03/2013.
75252012-07-122013-03-01Jayson Virissimo1RightI will have one or more offspring before 03/2013.
75752012-07-192012-07-20whatifitsnot1WithdrawnI will go to lunch with Kevin Schlax tomorrow.
76072012-07-232022-07-23RandomThinker2US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years
76082012-07-232027-07-23RandomThinker2Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years.
76172012-07-242012-07-26RandomThinker1WrongUS basketball team will beat Spain by less than 12 points tonight
76182012-07-242016-07-24RandomThinker9WrongMarissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years
76192012-07-242012-11-01RandomThinker1RightIchiro will have a higher batting average for the Yankees (including playoffs) for the rest of the year than he did with Seattle
76342012-07-262016-01-01RandomThinker2WrongGoogle won't offer high speed internet in more than 3 cities by Jan 1 2016
76352012-07-262013-06-01RandomThinker1WrongThe drought will change opinions re: climate change in the U.S. (measured by 2013 Gallup poll vs. 2012 Gallup poll > +3%)
76382012-07-262013-04-01RandomThinker2Wrong3d movie fad is over in US (measured by 2012 3D box office dropping another 20% from 2011)
76392012-07-262016-07-26RandomThinker1WrongInstagram will peak at < 240m users in the next 4 years
76402012-07-262012-09-01RandomThinker1WrongUsain Bolt won't win 100m gold medal in 2012
76412012-07-262012-09-15RandomThinker1RightMissy Franklin will win 4 or more gold medals
76422012-07-262012-09-15RandomThinker1RightMichael Phelps will not solely win the most gold medals in 2012 (he may tie, but won't win the most outright).
76432012-07-262012-09-15RandomThinker1RightLebron will continue to hog ball control in the 2012 olympics (measured by Chris Paul won't have more than 1 assist / per game more than Lebron)
76442012-07-262012-12-31RandomThinker1WrongKristin Stewart and Robert Pattinson will break up before end of 2012
76452012-07-262012-12-31RandomThinker7RightNo new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting
76462012-07-262012-12-31RandomThinker5RightMitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!)
76472012-07-262012-12-31RandomThinker1WrongGabby Giffords (the congresswoman who was shot in 2011) will be attacked in a political ad in 2012
76482012-07-262014-07-26RandomThinker1WrongTony Blair will pick a fight over some public issue with Bill Clinton in the next 2 years
76542012-07-272012-08-05Jayson Virissimo1RightUsain Bolt will win the 100m gold medal in the 2012 Olympics.
76612012-07-282012-01-08NathanMcKnight2WrongAnne Romney's horse will place in 2012 Olympics dressage competition.
77012012-08-012016-11-12NathanMcKnight5New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto.
77022012-08-012020-01-01NathanMcKnight2WrongTitan Mare Explorer (TiME) will be chosen as next NASA Discovery standalone mission.
77032012-08-012033-01-01NathanMcKnight3Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years.
77042012-08-012018-01-01NathanMcKnight4First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years.
77332012-08-042012-08-25fistpo1RightBruce Springsteen will play "She's the One" on August 24.
77342012-08-042022-08-04gwern14By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.
77452012-08-062012-08-07clemux1Wrong EUR/USD on or below 1.22 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC.
77462012-08-062015-01-02Jayson Virissimo3WrongHealth care spending in the US will exceed 19% of GDP sometime before 2015.
77512012-08-062012-10-06beo_shaffer1Withdrawnwill take advise and report improvement
77592012-08-072015-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will still use an Android-based mobile by 2015.
77882012-08-102014-01-01Jayson Virissimo1RightI will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014.
77892012-08-102012-08-16Jayson Virissimo1RightI will pass the written exam for the 'Crime Analyst' position on 08/16/2012.
77902012-08-102013-06-15RandomThinker1WrongKobe will average less than 24 pts a game in 2012-13 NBA season
77912012-08-102014-11-15RandomThinker1RightMike Brown will be fired as coach of Lakers before 2014 NBA season
78032012-08-122100-01-01asdadfa3How/"why" (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature.
78042012-08-122013-12-31dhoe2RightAngela Merkel will be reelected chancellor in 2013
78092012-08-132014-08-13RandomThinker1RightGoogle will write off more than $2b for Motorola purchase over the next 2 years.
78142012-08-142022-12-31RandomThinker5RightThere'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail)
78152012-08-142032-11-10gwern17An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.
78192012-08-152012-12-31RandomThinker2RightLinda McMahon (wife of wrestling CEO) won't win seat as Connecticut senator
78202012-08-152040-12-31RandomThinker4China will win more gold medals than India in 2040
78212012-08-152040-12-31RandomThinker2Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040
78222012-08-152040-12-31RandomThinker4Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040
78252012-08-162013-12-31RandomThinker6RightAssuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013
78792012-08-212013-12-31RandomThinker4RightNorth Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013.
78802012-08-212012-09-01RandomThinker4WrongAkin will quit before 1st September 2012
78812012-08-212016-01-01RandomThinker1WrongVirginia Rometty, IBM CEO, still won't be Augusta National golf course member by Jan, 2016
78822012-08-212013-12-31RandomThinker3WrongBest Buy will be taken private before December 2013
78832012-08-212016-12-31RandomThinker4RightThere won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016
78842012-08-212012-12-31RandomThinker3RightRomney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election
78852012-08-212012-12-31RandomThinker1RightRon Paul won't have significant speaking role in 2012 Republican convention
78862012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1RightNFL 2012: Packers will win NFC North division
78872012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1RightNFL 2012: Falcons will win NFC South
78882012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1WrongNFL 2012: Cowboys will win NFC East
78892012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1RightNFL 2012: 49ers will win NFC West
78902012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1WrongNFL 2012: Steelers will win AFC North
78912012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1RightNFL 2012: Texans will win AFC South
78922012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1RightNFL 2012: Patriots will win AFC East
78932012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1WrongNFL 2012: Chargers will win AFC West
78942012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1WrongNFL 2012: Lions will finish with better regular season record than the Bears
78952012-08-212013-02-01RandomThinker1WrongNFL 2012: Andrew Luck will have a better season than Robert Griffin (measured by QBR ratings on espn.com for regular season)
78962012-08-212013-01-15JoshuaZ3RightThe Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least January 15, 2013
78972012-08-212012-08-21Wes1WrongEmail will be sent once
78982012-08-212022-08-21NathanMcKnight4Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation--b being the dense former core of c.
79052012-08-222061-01-01Jayson Virissimo3The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years.
79062012-08-222012-11-07NathanMcKnight7WrongMitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape.
79112012-08-232013-08-28gwern6WrongAugust 2013 hard drive prices: 37-43 GB/$
79212012-08-232014-03-28gwern5WrongMarch 2014 hard drive prices: 50-58 GB/$
79252012-08-232012-11-10JoshuaZ2WrongAkin to get at least 40% of the vote in the Missouri election (conditional on him not dropping out).
79352012-08-252013-02-25gwern3RightGeoff Greer will have a job within 6 months.
79362012-08-252013-08-01RandomThinker2RightAll 9 wounded bystanders in NY Midtown incident were shot by the cops rather than the original shooter
79372012-08-252013-12-31RandomThinker1WrongNYPD will publicly reassess its shooting policy for its officers before end of 2013
79442012-08-252014-08-26two2thehead8WrongWithin 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com
79732012-08-272032-01-01RandomThinker2RightChina's one child policy will end before 2032
79762012-08-272013-06-01RandomThinker1WrongLebron won't be MVP of NBA 2013 season
79812012-08-282013-01-31RandomThinker2WrongTech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012
79822012-08-282013-12-31RandomThinker1WrongBob Mansfield will re-retire by end of 2013
79832012-08-282012-12-31RandomThinker3WrongTwitter will win privacy fight over Occupy Wall Street tweets (at least as to email address)
79842012-08-282013-01-01RandomThinker2WrongChina will be the biggest smartphone app market by beginning of 2013
79852012-08-282012-08-28gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 2: active?
79882012-08-282016-07-01RandomThinker7RightHillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016
79892012-08-282012-08-29Christopher1WrongWriting about my English teacher will be the idea I stick with for my Stanford essay.
79902012-08-282012-08-29Christopher1RightI will finish and be happy with my rough draft of my Stanford essay by tomorrow evening.
79912012-08-282012-08-28gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 3: active?
79982012-08-292032-08-29beo_shaffer2Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la
79992012-08-292013-12-31RandomThinker3WrongFarhad Manjoo: Kindle to be free with Amazon Prime by end of 2013
80002012-08-292013-12-31RandomThinker6RightApple won't sue Google over Android before end of 2013
80032012-08-292018-01-01gwern3NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno
80042012-08-292012-09-10gwern1WrongMatthew Wright will lose his pirateat40 bet, and will pay out in full
80362012-08-312012-09-21ggreer1RightHN user tsunamifury will comment on HN again.
80392012-08-312012-10-20JoshuaZ7WrongThe Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted.
80402012-08-312012-10-01RandomThinker1WrongThe NFL and the refs won't come to a labor agreement before Oct 1
80462012-09-012013-06-01RandomThinker5Right5 or less students will be expelled as a result of the Harvard cheating scandal (125 students investigated)
80682012-09-022013-09-02gwern2WrongLiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 1 year
80692012-09-022014-09-02gwern3WrongLiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 2 years,
80742012-09-022016-11-01NathanMcKnight13WrongThe US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate.
80752012-09-022016-12-01NathanMcKnight23WrongA Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate.
80962012-09-042014-01-01lukeprog4RightI'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013.
81002012-09-042012-10-01lukeprog1RightAll previously published SI research papers will be typeset in the new template before the end of the month.
81012012-09-042012-12-01lukeprog2RightThe complete Russian translation of Facing the Singularity will be posted to facingthesingularity.com by the end of November.
81052012-09-042013-01-01lukeprog2RightI will visit Oxford UK this year.
81062012-09-042050-01-01lukeprog8No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.
81172012-09-042013-09-01RandomThinker1WrongFacebook CFO will be fired or depart within a year (by September 1 2013)
81182012-09-042012-09-15RandomThinker3WrongFed won't announce QE3 at their Sept 12-13 meeting
81192012-09-042013-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will enroll in chemistry courses at a local community college before 2013.
81202012-09-042013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will start a 2nd startup before 2013.
81212012-09-042013-01-01Jayson Virissimo5WrongI will be hired as a Civilian Investigation Specialist before 2013.
81222012-09-042014-01-01lukeprog3Right"The Singularity and Machine Ethics" will have been cited more than 5 times, according to Google Scholar, by the end of 2013.
81232012-09-042012-09-21lukeprog1RightOne week after its release, 'The Master' will hold a score of 85% or above on RottenTomatoes.
81242012-09-042013-01-01lukeprog2RightOne week after its release, 'Django Unchained' will hold a score of 80% or above on RottenTomatoes.
81252012-09-042012-10-01lukeprog2RightI'll have read through chapter 20 in HPMoR by the end of this month.
81262012-09-042013-01-01lukeprog2RightMy 'guide to modern classical music' won't be finished by the end of the year.
81272012-09-042032-09-04NancyLebovitz7At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.
81282012-09-042014-01-01gwern1WrongNGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2013
81292012-09-042015-01-01gwern1WrongNGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2014
81302012-09-042016-01-01gwern1RightNGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2015
81312012-09-042014-01-01gwern1WrongEoE will be released on Bluray in 2013
81322012-09-042015-01-01gwern1WrongEoE will be released on Bluray in 2014
81332012-09-042016-01-01gwern1RightEoE will be released on Bluray in 2015
81342012-09-042013-01-01gwern1WrongSilk Road will drop its hedging service by 2013.
81352012-09-052019-01-01gwern6Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures.
81412012-09-052012-12-06gwern1RightMy LSD order will arrive.
81422012-09-052012-12-06gwern1WrongI will be visited or questioned or arrested by police over my LSD order.
81432012-09-052013-09-05Ben Doherty4WrongI will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me
81442012-09-062013-03-06gwern1WrongI will cease to identify as an atheist after my LSD trip.
81452012-09-062012-09-06gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 7: active?
81572012-09-062012-09-08williamycai1WrongI will not end up buying premium cat food tomorrow... and my mew mews' have to eat supermarket grade food for the day..
81602012-09-072012-09-28gwern1RightLSD: My trip will be generally positive (and not a 'bad trip').
81612012-09-072017-09-30gwern5WrongLSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years.
81622012-09-072016-02-01gwern25RightHillary Clinton will run for president in 2016.
81632012-09-072016-09-30gwern8RightHillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016.
81642012-09-072016-11-09gwern13WrongHillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016.
81652012-09-072014-01-01Filipe11WrongKate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell
81732012-09-072012-09-11williamycai1WrongNo additional changes will be made to my design project after Tues
81742012-09-072012-09-13williamycai1RightI will be able to leave office before 6pm everyday this week.
81802012-09-072037-09-07gwern5I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.
81832012-09-082012-12-06lepido2RightObama will win election
81842012-09-082052-09-08gwern9In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.
81852012-09-082052-09-08gwern6I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years.
81862012-09-082012-09-16William-Quixote4RightNYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th
81872012-09-082012-09-16William-Quixote1WrongNYTimes: Bill Keller will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th
81882012-09-082012-09-16William-Quixote3WrongNYTimes: Thomas Friedman will make a (charitably) a testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th
81892012-09-082012-09-16William-Quixote2WrongNYTimes: Ross Douthat will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th
81902012-09-082012-09-16William-Quixote2WrongNYTimes: Charles Blow will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th
81912012-09-082012-09-16William-Quixote3RightNYTimes: David Brooks will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th
81922012-09-082013-06-30William-Quixote8WrongPredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013
82042012-09-092013-12-31Athrelon8RightThe "Anonymous Narratives by LW Women" thread will receive >100 comments
82052012-09-092013-12-31Konkvistador8RightThe “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments
82062012-09-102012-11-15RandomThinker3RightUS unemployment rate below 8% by the 2012 election (last reported number before the election)
82172012-09-102012-10-10gwern2WrongMy extortionist will reply at all.
82182012-09-102012-10-10gwern1WrongMy extortionist will reply and attempt a different extortion.
82192012-09-112018-01-01puritan3WrongIf a large random portion of the Afghanistan population is forced to change gender presentation (the "sneetch" solution) by 2015, by 2018 the country will have passed anti-gender-discrimination laws for employment, housing, and education.
82202012-09-112012-09-11gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 9: active?
82212012-09-112012-10-01Jayson Virissimo2RightIf I trade in my 2006 Scion tC this month, then I will get equal to or greater than $5,600 for it.
82452012-09-132012-09-13gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 11: active?
82522012-09-132013-03-01RandomThinker2RightThere'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video
82532012-09-132012-10-01jakewalker2RightI will have finished reading up through the latest chapter HPMOR by Oct. 1st
82542012-09-132012-10-31jakewalker1WrongI will have finished reading "Four Witnesses: The Early Church in Her Own Words" by Oct. 31st
82592012-09-142012-11-16huggins1RightI will become student senator
82602012-09-142013-07-15Porejide1WrongConditional upon the website existing and the NFL season occuring (and of course, the world not ending), Stephen Hill (NYJ) will be rated in the top 50 WR's at http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/wr.php next year on July 15.
82672012-09-152013-01-01NathanMcKnight5RightBy the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin.
82712012-09-152014-02-01RandomThinker2RightFed will change the monthly QE3 purchase size/type by Feb 2014 (now $40b MBS a month)
82722012-09-152015-10-01RandomThinker11WrongThere will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored)
82732012-09-152017-10-01RandomThinker3WrongThere'll be press report of significant protest in China in the next 5 years against anti-Chinese video released on the internet.
82742012-09-152022-10-01RandomThinker3RightThere'll be press report of "martial law" imposed on the internet by a major country in the next 10 years
82752012-09-152012-09-22Jayson Virissimo2RightI will get my motorcycle license in a week or less.
82762012-09-152013-03-01RandomThinker2WithdrawnSo called "Fiscal Cliff" won't cause US govt credit to be downgraded by 2 or more of big 3 (S&P, Moody, Fitch)
82772012-09-152013-09-15NathanMcKnight1WrongMars nodules discovered on 9/14/12 will be analyzed and described as carbonate ooids in at least one refereed journal within a year.
82822012-09-162012-09-16gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 13: active?
82832012-09-162015-09-16gwern5WrongCopper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. --Michael Pettis
82862012-09-172016-01-02RobertLumley19RightHPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast.
82872012-09-172016-01-02RobertLumley9WrongHPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will *be used* to create a dementor.
82882012-09-172012-09-17gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 14: active?
82892012-09-172013-05-15PlacidPlatypus7WrongI will be ranked Diamond League in Starcraft II 1v1 by the end of the school year.
82932012-09-172017-01-01jarlathhealy1Wrong2016: Hepatitis C vaccine becomes headlines as its rolled out into manufacturing. The Hep C vaccine also throws those fighting the virus currently; into an automatic state of remission with help of cocktail enhancers.
82942012-09-172020-01-01jarlathhealy3Wrong2019: HIV is able to be thrown into remission in HIV+ individuals carrying the HIV-1 strain, only. Further research is needed for HIV-2.
82952012-09-172016-01-01jarlathhealy3Wrong2014: Malaria vaccine enters manufacturing. This vaccine is available in 2015.
82962012-09-172019-01-01jarlathhealy5Wrong2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu.
82972012-09-172025-01-01jarlathhealy82024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.
83002012-09-182012-12-31RandomThinker2RightBarclays analyst Ben Reitzes: Apple to sell 45.21 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 22 percent from last year.
83012012-09-182022-09-19NathanMcKnight15In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light.
83022012-09-182013-04-30gwern8WrongThe Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule.
83072012-09-192020-06-16Jach8WrongHezbollah disbanded by 2020
83132012-09-202013-01-20papermachine3WrongI will find _Accel World_ interesting enough to watch the whole first season.
83382012-09-212017-12-31RandomThinker5WrongTwitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018
83412012-09-212013-01-01bobpage1WrongI will watch 90%+ of Love Exposure (2008) before 2013
83422012-09-212016-01-01NathanMcKnight4WrongIn the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties.
83432012-09-212012-12-15RandomThinker7RightDemocrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election
83442012-09-212013-07-01gwern1Wrong"Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule" --Bets of Bitcoin
83452012-09-212030-01-01gwern1_Aoki Uru_ will be released as a full movie by 2030.
83462012-09-212020-01-01gwern1Wrong_Aoki Uru_ will be released as a full movie by 2020.
83472012-09-222012-11-05RandomThinker3WrongBeyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election.
83512012-09-222014-09-22paulharris8WrongGwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years
83522012-09-222012-11-14gwern2WrongI will see a visible color difference in my photographs of my eye before and after iodine supplementation.
83712012-09-242012-10-01wallowinmaya1RightI will play WoW for less than 5 hours this week
83782012-09-242022-09-24gwern3No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years.
83792012-09-242012-09-24gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 18: active?
83822012-09-252013-05-01RandomThinker3WrongGene Munster + Brian White: APPL price target of > $910 by May 2013
83872012-09-262022-09-26learnmethis4It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now.
83882012-09-262032-09-26learnmethis4RightA major tech startup (valuation > 10 million dollars) will be launched out of a country or by native citizens of a country ranked in the lowest 100 of GDP per capita according to the CIA factbook.
83892012-09-262015-09-26learnmethis17WrongHPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story.
83902012-09-262017-09-26learnmethis3A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years
83912012-09-262022-09-26learnmethis5Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall.
83922012-09-262012-09-26gwern1RightDNB/nicotine day 19: active?
83932012-09-262012-09-27Jayson Virissimo1RightI will add a glossary to my Less Wrong article within 24 hours.
83992012-09-272017-09-27lukeprog7RightNo paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years.
84002012-09-272112-09-27gwern10Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts
84442012-09-292061-01-01Pablo Stafforini8Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.
84452012-09-302012-09-30gwern1RightDNB/nicotine day 21: active?
84462012-09-302013-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will beat Deus Ex: Human Revolution in Spanish before 2013.
84472012-09-302012-11-06Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Mathematical Thinking'.
84482012-09-302012-11-13Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will receive a certificate of completion for 'Learn to Program: The Fundamentals'.
84492012-09-302012-11-12Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Logic'.
84592012-10-012070-01-01Pablo Stafforini10By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce
84602012-10-012014-01-01Pablo Stafforini5WrongA paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013
84612012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini12Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84622012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini5By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. -- Axel Boldt
84632012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini8The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84642012-10-012021-01-01Pablo Stafforini13Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey
84672012-10-012151-01-01Pablo Stafforini1WithdrawnAt least one person will reach 150 years of age by 2150. -- Steve Austad
84702012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini2A "theory of everything" combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84712012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini13Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84722012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini11Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84732012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini13Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84742012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini16Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84752012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini11Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84762012-10-012041-01-01Pablo Stafforini11Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
84772012-10-012100-01-01Pablo Stafforini2Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. -- David Pearce
84782012-10-012101-01-01Pablo Stafforini7By 2100, the vast majority of "people" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson
84792012-10-012101-01-01Pablo Stafforini7By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson
84802012-10-019999-01-01Pablo Stafforini14Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson
84812012-10-012101-01-01Pablo Stafforini3If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. -- Robin Hanson
84822012-10-012101-01-01Pablo Stafforini7If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson
84872012-10-022012-11-21_W_1WrongThe first episode of the third season of MLP:FIM will first be broadcast on November 20'th
84882012-10-022012-10-02gwern1RightDNB/nicotine day 23: active?
84892012-10-022100-01-01NathanMcKnight2Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100.
84902012-10-022040-01-01Jayson Virissimo8By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.
85582012-10-052012-10-05Emanuel Rylke1RightI will implement obstacles in my game today.
85642012-10-062050-12-31RandomThinker7They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040
85652012-10-062014-01-01Pablo Stafforini1RightIn 2013, the ratio of anecdotes confirming Seth Roberts's various pet theories published in Roberts's blog, relative to those disconfirming them, will be at least 10 to one.
85662012-10-062017-10-06gwern6WrongD-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years
85672012-10-062022-10-06gwern3D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years
85682012-10-062015-01-01gwern3WrongD-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015
85692012-10-062020-01-01gwern5RightD-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020
85702012-10-062016-01-01gwern2WrongD-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016
85712012-10-062018-01-01gwern7WrongD-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018
85842012-10-082013-04-01RandomThinker2RightGangnam Style won't be on Billboard 100 digital song chart by April 1, 2013
85852012-10-082013-04-01RandomThinker3RightGangnam Style will still be on the Billboard Youtube list by April 1, 2013
86052012-10-102012-10-10gwern1RightDNB/nicotine day 25: active?
86102012-10-102014-01-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongI will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014.
86112012-10-102020-01-01RandomThinker6By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria.
86502012-10-132014-01-01chemotaxis1013WrongA paper written or co-written by me is _accepted_ for publication in the journal "Information Sciences" by 2013.
86802012-10-142014-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will post a formal version of my primary argument for simulation-theism on Less Wrong before 2014.
87572012-10-152014-01-01chemotaxis1017WrongBy the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com.
87762012-10-172012-12-11Qiaochu3WithdrawnAt least 25% of MIT's numbers in the Dropbox Space Race (https://www.dropbox.com/spacerace) are from some kind of cheating (a script, virtual machines, etc.).
87832012-10-172012-10-17Jach1WrongHousemate one-boxes
87982012-10-172022-10-18NathanMcKnight6Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system.
88292012-10-212014-01-01jacobian2WrongThe SWP will split with 5-15 members joining the ULA. The SWP will decide to remain in the ULA for at least one year after the event.
88302012-10-212060-01-01NathanMcKnight14By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English.
88312012-10-212012-10-21gwern1RightDNB/nicotine day 29: active?
88542012-10-222012-10-31RandomThinker1WrongThere are at least 4 false things reported as "rumors" in this ValueWalk article about the iPad Mini, starting with the $329 price
89042012-10-242014-12-31Aticper8WrongBy the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units.
89052012-10-242017-12-31Aticper3WrongWithin five years (2017), motion-controlled augmented reality headsets will be widespread in the consumer market, selling millions of units and beginning to overtake multitouch screens as the primary mode of mobile computer interaction.
89062012-10-242017-12-31Aticper3Within three years (2015), a AAA level gaming title (with professional voice acting, at least Xbox 360 level graphics, and a multimillion dollar budget) will be released for a mobile (smart phone) platform.
89072012-10-242027-12-31Aticper3Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down. However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years.
89082012-10-242032-12-31Aticper5A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032).
89092012-10-242062-12-31Aticper4Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions.
89102012-10-242022-12-31Aticper7Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022).
89132012-10-242017-01-01RandomThinker15WrongAssuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term
89142012-10-242014-01-01RandomThinker6RightDonald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts
89152012-10-242013-06-01RandomThinker3RightAssuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary
89162012-10-242014-02-15RandomThinker3WrongAssuming Obama wins second term, Bernanke will continue as Fed chairman
89232012-10-242012-11-06SaramMueller1RightBarack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential Election
89302012-10-252012-10-25gwern1WrongDNB/nicotine day 32: active?
89482012-10-262012-11-10RandomThinker14WrongMitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election
89592012-10-262012-11-15gusl3RightObama will be re-elected on the 2012 presidential election.
89902012-10-282012-11-28gwern2WrongCharles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month and will clearly confirm or deny authorship.
89912012-10-282012-11-28gwern1WrongConditional on a reply and clear answer, Charles Parlapanides will claim Parlapanides' authorship.
90012012-10-282013-06-01RandomThinker4WrongRegardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major "debt deal" before mid 2013
90072012-10-292023-01-01NathanMcKnight13In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US.
90082012-10-292023-01-01NathanMcKnight3In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US.
90092012-10-292012-11-25Qiaochu5RightMy stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks.
90282012-10-292012-11-08RandomThinker5WrongRomney will win Florida
90292012-10-292012-12-08RandomThinker5RightObama will win Colorado
90302012-10-292012-12-08RandomThinker5WrongRomney will win Iowa
90572012-10-292012-10-31gusl3RightThe NYC subway will remain fully closed for all of Tuesday.
90622012-10-302017-01-01NathanMcKnight10WrongMarijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
90862012-10-312012-11-03SorcererofDM1WrongI will finish mixing my song in 3 days
91092012-11-012012-11-16abc1234563RightLi Keqiang will be appointed the next Premier of the State Council of China.
91102012-11-012012-11-16abc1234563RightWang Yang will not be appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China.
91132012-11-012015-01-01RandomThinker1WrongSummly, news summary app created by 16 yr old, will be a flop (as judged in Jan 2015)
91142012-11-012015-01-01RandomThinker1WrongReed Hastings will not be CEO of Netflix by 2015
91152012-11-012013-12-31RandomThinker1RightGoogle will close above $800 before Apple.
92032012-11-022015-12-31RandomThinker20RightNew Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones
92212012-11-032013-01-03gwern1WithdrawnGeoff Greer & co's YC application will result in an interview.
92222012-11-032013-11-16ggreer4WrongMy application for Y Combinator will be good enough to get me an interview.
94842012-11-062014-12-31RandomThinker2RightAssuming dems hold Senate in 2012, republicans retake Senate in 2014 mid term elections
94852012-11-062014-12-31RandomThinker2RightJohn Kerry is more likely to be Secretary of State than Susan Rice
94862012-11-062013-06-01RandomThinker1WrongValerie Jarett will not be White House Chief of Staff
94872012-11-062013-09-01RandomThinker1WithdrawnErskine Bowles is more likely to be Secretary of Treasury than Larry Finke + Roger Altman put together
94882012-11-062014-12-31RandomThinker2RightLarry Summers won't be Fed Chairman in 2014
94892012-11-062016-12-31RandomThinker1Jonathan Ives will be viewed as a flop as iphone, ipad head (as judged by hindsight in 2016)
94902012-11-062012-12-06Sarokrae1RightThe Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/11/12-06/12/12
94912012-11-062013-01-06Sarokrae1RightThe Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/12/12-06/01/13
95452012-11-072016-11-10Jach7WrongThe US economy will be "worse" in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse)
95462012-11-072016-12-31RandomThinker4WrongAfter a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a "center-left" country during the Obama term.
95472012-11-072016-05-01RandomThinker2RightChris Christie is not going to be within top 3 in Iowa causes in 2016
95482012-11-072014-12-31RandomThinker2WithdrawnLike Bob Dole, Romney will be more popular 2 years after the election than during the election
95492012-11-072016-06-01RandomThinker5RightRomney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes
95502012-11-072016-12-31RandomThinker2Romney will publicly embrace Romneycare before end of Obama term
95512012-11-072016-11-30RandomThinker27WrongThe 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again!
95522012-11-072012-11-30kiba1WrongI will finish khanacademy by the end of this month. (380 out of 380 oncepts or more) http://www.khanacademy.org/profile/hackerkiba I have completed 323 out of 380 by November 7th 2012. Given that I seem to progressed at 2 concepts per day in order to rea
95532012-11-072012-11-08gwern1RightLSD microdosing experiment: pair 3: placebo then active?
95542012-11-072016-12-31RandomThinker5There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters)
95852012-11-082013-12-01RandomThinker2WrongObama's not going to officially approve of the legalization of pot in Colorado and Washington
96222012-11-092013-11-09alecbrooks1RightI will still be using this in a year.
96232012-11-092013-11-09alecbrooks2WrongI will try either Acme, Emacs, or both over the coming year.
96242012-11-092016-01-01RandomThinker2RightApple will still use intel CPUs in Macs in 2016
96272012-11-092016-11-10NathanMcKnight4WrongThe Democratic candidate takes Georgia in 2016
96282012-11-092012-11-11alecbrooks3WrongTori Dykes' tweet (https://twitter.com/toridykes/status/266032621690171392) will not reach 2,000 RTs by Sunday.
96292012-11-092020-01-01NathanMcKnight18WrongBy 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union
96472012-11-092014-12-01RandomThinker3WrongIn the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist
96962012-11-102012-11-17ohAitch1WithdrawnI will begin using twitter
97972012-11-122030-01-01RandomThinker3IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030
97982012-11-122015-12-31RandomThinker4RightIEA: US to overtake Russia as the leading producer of natural gas in 2015.
97992012-11-122035-12-31RandomThinker4IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter.
98242012-11-132012-11-17The_sacred_Sponge1Wrongat least 5 birthday emails
98632012-11-132017-01-01Jayson Virissimo1Withdrawn“The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer by about 2017.” -International Energy Agency
98642012-11-132013-03-02Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will receive a certificate of completion for ‘Think Again: How to Reason and Argue’.
99522012-11-152012-12-01tedks6WrongBitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $17/BTC at the end of November, 2012.
99792012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3RightNFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99802012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3RightNFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat Carolina Panthers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99812012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3RightNFL: Washington Redskins will beat Philidelphia Eagles in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99822012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3WrongSt. Louis Rams will beat New York Jets in Week 11 of the 2012 NFL Season
99832012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3RightNFL: Houston Texans will beat Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99842012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3RightNFL: Green Bay Packers will beat Detroit Lions in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99852012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3RightNFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99862012-11-162012-11-18dwibby3RightNFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99872012-11-162012-11-19dwibby3RightNFL: New Orleans Saints will beat Oakland Raiders in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99882012-11-162012-11-19dwibby3RightNFL: New England Patriots will beat Indianapolis Colts in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99892012-11-162012-11-19dwibby3RightNFL: Denver Broncos will beat San Diego Chargers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99902012-11-162012-12-07Matt1WrongAverage 7 day ROI across all B AW Cs will be >200% within 3 weeks.
99912012-11-162012-11-19dwibby3RightNFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99922012-11-162012-11-20dwibby3WrongNFL: Chicago Bears will beat San Francisco 49ers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season
99932012-11-162012-11-20dwibby1WrongDWibby's Week 11 NFL predictions based on intuitive confidence scale (rated from 0-5, and mapped to 50-100% at 10% intervals) will be at least 5% less than true accuracy at each 10% interval.
100232012-11-162014-11-16gwern4WrongHP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years
100552012-11-182013-12-25dhoe1WrongNL: Housing price will have fallen > 8% year on year in Dec '13
100722012-11-192013-07-31RandomMovie3WrongSuperman 2 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 227.53)
100732012-11-192013-12-01RandomMovie8RightEnder's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m)
100742012-11-192013-04-15RandomMovie3RightOz the Great and Power will do better than expected (4wk gross > HSX @ 157.4m)
100752012-11-192014-06-30RandomMovie2RightCaptain America Winter Soldier will do about as expected (4wk gross within +/-20% of HSX @ 191.90m)
102152012-11-202013-01-01NathanMcKnight14WrongMars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil.
102652012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat Oakland Raiders in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102662012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: New England Patriots will beat NY Jets in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102672012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2WrongNFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat Miami Dolphins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102682012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2WrongNFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Washington Redskins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102692012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: Houston Texans will beat Detroit Lions in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102702012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102712012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2WrongNFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102722012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: Chicago Bears will beat Minnesota Vikings in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102732012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat Tennessee Titans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102742012-11-222012-12-31RandomNFL2RightNFL: SF 49ers will beat New Orleans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102752012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2WrongNFL: Arizona Cardinals will beat St Louis Rams in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102762012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: Carolina Panthers will beat Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102772012-11-222012-12-31RandomNFL2WrongNFL: Green Bay Packers will beat NY Giants in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
102782012-11-222012-11-28RandomNFL2RightNFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat Buffalo Bills in Week 12 of the 2012 Season
103712012-11-242023-01-01lukeprog9By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance
103722012-11-242023-01-01lukeprog4By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. --Alyssa Vance
105032012-11-252012-12-31Sarokrae5RightGangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
105042012-11-252012-12-21Sarokrae9RightGangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
105052012-11-252012-12-11Sarokrae5WrongGangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
105062012-11-252012-12-01Sarokrae8WrongGangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
105072012-11-252013-12-31NathanMcKnight4Wrong"I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close." --John Heilemann, NY Magazine
105082012-11-252062-01-01NathanMcKnight5Martian "dark sand cascades" are found to be evidence of microbial activity.
107472012-11-282014-01-01rbhamilton@gmail.com1WrongWe will go over the fiscal cliff in some fashion but it wont be as bad as people say.
109082012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109092012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: Houston Texans will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109102012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Philly Eagles in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109112012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: GB Packers will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109122012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: New England Patriots will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109132012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the KC Chiefs in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109142012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109152012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109162012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: Buffalo Bills will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109172012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1WrongNFL: NY Giants will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109182012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: NY Jets will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109192012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109202012-11-292012-12-06RandomNFL1RightNFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 13 of the 2012 season
109432012-11-292013-12-31ChristianKl1RightI won’t try the Everyman sleep shedule in 2013.
109442012-11-292013-12-31ChristianKl1RightI will still live in Berlin at the end of 2013
109452012-11-292013-12-31ChristianKl1WrongI will weight more than 60 kg at the end of 2013.
109462012-11-292012-12-31ChristianKl1WrongI will weight more than 57 kg on 2012-12-31
109472012-11-292012-12-31ChristianKl1WrongI will weight more than 58 kg on 2012-12-31
109482012-11-292012-12-31ChristianKl1WrongI will weight less than 54 kg on 2012-12-31
109622012-11-292013-12-31ChristianKl2RightMy LessWrong karma will be over 2000 at the end of 2013
109632012-11-292014-01-01ChristianKl6RightBitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013.
109642012-11-292032-01-01NathanMcKnight3Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics.
109652012-11-292014-12-31ChristianKl2RightI will still live in Berlin at the end of 2014
109762012-11-292012-12-19onthestairs1Withdrawntest
110852012-12-012013-05-16tsathoggua4RightDiscovering the water and/or oxygen traces in some exoplanets
110862012-12-012013-03-16tsathoggua1WithdrawnVill be estabilshed, that Jasir Arafat is poisoned by Po210
113962012-12-042012-12-05Cy Fleming2WrongI will study for final exams for >5 hours today
115212012-12-052013-01-05gwern1Wrong>=1 Longecity users will claim my (swapped) sets of iodine eye photographs will reveal a lightening trend of my iris.
117082012-12-062012-12-07RandomNFL1RightNFL: The Denver Broncos will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 of the 2012 season
117192012-12-062013-12-31ChristianKl4WrongThe Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013.
117202012-12-062015-12-31ChristianKl16WrongThe Euro won’t be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2015
119362012-12-092013-02-01cyblifeformnode2WrongStandard & Poor's Ratings Services will change the unsolicited long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of France (from 'AA+') or on the Federal Republic of Germany (from 'AAA') till February 1st.
119552012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119562012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: SF 49ers will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119572012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119582012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Detroit Lions in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119592012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119602012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119612012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119622012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: NY Giants will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119632012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119642012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: New England Patriots will beat Texas Texans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119652012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119662012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119672012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat the NY Jets in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
119682012-12-092012-12-12RandomNFL1RightNFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season
120382012-12-102013-03-01zaarcis1WrongHPMoR lidz 2013. gada 1. martam netiks turpinats
120602012-12-112016-11-09Cy Fleming4WrongIntrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election.
120612012-12-112012-12-16Christopher1WrongI will be accepted to MIT EA.
123442012-12-132012-12-14RandomNFL1RightNFL: The Cinncinati Bengals will beat the Philadephia Eagles in Week 15 of the 2012 season
123452012-12-132015-06-30RandomThinker1RightFed conditions of employment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% will hit before June 30, 2015
123462012-12-132015-06-30RandomThinker1RightFed will keep rates low before June 30, 2015 even if unemployment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% in the meantime.
126002012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: Miami Dolphins will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 of 2012 Season
126012012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126022012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 of 2012 Season
126032012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Chicago Bears in Week 15 of 2012 Season
126042012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: New Orleans Saints will beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126052012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1WrongNFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126062012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: San Francisco 49ers will beat the New England Patriots in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126072012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126082012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1WrongNFL: NY Giants will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126092012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Denver Broncos in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126102012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126112012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1RightNFL: San Diego Chargers will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126122012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126132012-12-162012-12-20RandomNFL1WrongNFL: NY Jets will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 of the 2012 Season
126362012-12-162013-12-16ygert1RightThe Magic: the Gathering block code named "Friends", "Romans" and "Countrymen" will be a Large-Small-Small block.
127722012-12-172012-12-18gwern1RightLSD microdosing experiment: pair 8: placebo then active?
127732012-12-172013-12-31RandomThinker2WrongTom Claburn, Info Week: Google Glass Delayed in 2013 After Developers Puzzle Over Its Reason For Being
127832012-12-172013-12-31RandomThinker1WrongTom Claburn, Info Week: Google Graduates to ISP in 2013
128432012-12-182015-01-01ygert12RightIn HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit.
133512012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133522012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133532012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Houston Texans will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133542012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133552012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133562012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Washington Redskins will beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133572012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133582012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133592012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Miami Dolphins will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133602012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: San Diego Chargers will beat the NYJets in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133612012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133622012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1RightNFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the SF 49ers in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133632012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133642012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1WrongNFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 of the 2012 Season
133652012-12-222012-12-25RandomNFL1WrongNFL: NY Giants will beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 of 2012 Season
138702012-12-282013-12-31Tuxedage10RightI will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013.
139272012-12-292015-12-28NancyLebovitz8WrongThere will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years.
140852012-12-312020-01-01gwern14RightNo amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020.
140882012-12-312030-01-01gwern12No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.
141432013-01-012015-12-31Tuxedage6RightNo recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years.
141612013-01-012014-01-02Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will perform 1 set of 25 standard pull-ups and 1 set of 250 bodyweight squats on the same day before 2014.
141622013-01-012014-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will take the Spanish Language CLEP exam and will achieve a score of 55 or higher before 2014.
141632013-01-012014-01-01Jayson Virissimo2RightDuring a single 24 hour period, I will write 48 hiragana and 48 katakana from memory with an error rate of 0% before 2014.
141642013-01-012014-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongDuring a single 24 hour period, I will write 2,200 kanji from memory with an error rate of 10% or less before 2014.
141652013-01-012014-01-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will complete every single exercise in Harry Gensler's Introduction to Logic: Second Edition with an error rate of 20% or less before 2014.
141662013-01-012014-01-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will achieve all 7 of my New Year's resolutions before 2014.
142012013-01-012014-01-01dakyne6WrongThe spot price of silver will be $50/troy oz. or more at some point before December 31, 2013.
142312013-01-022013-03-01simplicio5RightHomicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan)
142322013-01-022014-01-01simplicio3WrongI will have $10 000 of play money on PokerStars by the end of 2013 ($569 as of Jan 2).
142602013-01-032013-06-01RandomThinker3WrongFight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 or more of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt
143532013-01-052013-01-09RandomNFL1RightNFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Indianapolis Colts in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season
143542013-01-052013-01-09RandomNFL1RightNFL: Houston Texans will beat the Cinncinati Bengals in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season
143552013-01-052013-01-09RandomNFL1RightNFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Washington Redskins in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season
144272013-01-072017-12-31ChristianKl3The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality.
144322013-01-072013-01-07Nic_Smith2RightEncoding done before 11:30
144332013-01-072013-01-08Nic_Smith2RightEncoding done before midnight
145192013-01-092013-10-01dhoe2WrongDE: The FDP will get more than 5% of the vote at the Bundestag elections '13
145622013-01-102013-02-24Peter Hurford9RightAnne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress.
145632013-01-102013-02-24Peter Hurford6WrongSteven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director.
145642013-01-102014-01-01DrDiaphanous24WrongBarack Obama will be assassinated in 2013
145652013-01-102016-12-01DrDiaphanous25WrongGoogle will be selling flying cars by December 2016
145992013-01-112013-03-11ashrewdmint1RightMy 23andme results will reveal I am 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher
146002013-01-112032-11-10gwern9The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.
146012013-01-112032-11-10gwern7The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.
146022013-01-112032-11-10gwern7The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.
146282013-01-132016-01-01ygert20WrongBefore 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide.
146512013-01-132013-12-30Tuxedage5RightBy the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000.
146522013-01-132020-12-01Tuxedage23By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.
146532013-01-132013-01-21Tuxedage2WrongI will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday.
147012013-01-162013-02-15ygert4RightAfter watching a few episodes of My Little Pony, I will decide I like it and continue watching the show.
147462013-01-172013-05-01dhoe1WrongNL: There will be an Elfstedentocht this winter
147762013-01-182013-11-30simplicio3RightLiberal/National Coalition to win Australian Federal Election 2013.
147772013-01-182013-04-14simplicio1RightJustin Trudeau to win Liberal Party of Canada leadership race.
147782013-01-182020-02-01simplicio4EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020.
147792013-01-182022-02-01simplicio7Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.
147802013-01-182013-01-19ashrewdmint2RightI will sleep better tonight after bright light exposure during the day
147812013-01-182016-02-01simplicio4WrongConditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012.
147822013-01-182017-02-01simplicio3WrongJapan to obtain >30% of its power from nuclear in 2016.
147832013-01-182015-12-01simplicio2RightWorld HDI for 2014 to be 0.690 or higher (0.682 in 2011).
147852013-01-192025-01-01Leo6Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_
148122013-01-192013-03-19ashrewdmint1WrongSarah's 23andme results will show that she is 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher
148132013-01-192013-01-20ashrewdmint2WrongDue to bright light and dark-red light cycling, tomorrow I will wake up like I did today: naturally and without sleeping in.
149332013-01-222013-07-01Pfft1WrongThe US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in Hollingsworth v. Perry (the Prop 8 case)
149682013-01-242015-01-01dusk7WrongSteve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014
149692013-01-242015-01-01dusk11WrongMicrosoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014.
149702013-01-242013-03-01dusk1RightWindows Phone 7.8 will roll out over-the-air to some consumer devices by the end of February 2013.
149712013-01-242015-01-01dusk1A digital 4K video camera will be available for under US$4000 by the end of 2013.
149722013-01-242013-03-20ygert5RightIsraeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu.
149732013-01-242013-03-20ygert3RightIsraeli Elections: The new government's coalition will include Yesh Atid.
149742013-01-242013-03-20ygert3RightIsraeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Labor.
149752013-01-242013-03-20ygert3RightIsraeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include HaBayit HaYehudi.
149762013-01-242013-03-20ygert4WrongIsraeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas.
149992013-01-242014-01-01simplicio11RightApple share price to stay below $700 during 2013.
150092013-01-252014-05-12Peter Hurford1WrongMy friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of the Spring 2014 semester (his estimated time of graduation)
150352013-01-272013-04-01KnaveOfAllTrades2RightMy Analysis raw mark will be between 34 and 44 marks out of 50
150362013-01-272013-04-01KnaveOfAllTrades2RightMy Probability & Stats raw percentage will be strictly over 89.5%
150852013-01-282013-02-04beo_shaffer4WrongYvain will mention the hand gesture the awkward turtle in http://squid314.livejournal.com/ within the next 7 days
153532013-02-062013-05-06papermachine7RightEY posts something on "The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics" within three months.
153542013-02-062013-05-06papermachine10RightEY posts something on "The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI" within three months
153842013-02-062020-12-31najdorf2I will get a list article published at Cracked.com by 31/12/2020.
154072013-02-072014-12-01Peter Hurford12RightThe Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections
155742013-02-112028-02-11halfwaytogallifrey2Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage.
155752013-02-112013-03-16halfwaytogallifrey1WrongThere will be a new book review on FraVerus.com by the end of March 15th.
155762013-02-112013-04-30halfwaytogallifrey4WrongMarc Ouellet will be the next Pope.
156052013-02-112013-05-11ashrewdmint29WrongThe recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist
156062013-02-112014-02-11stephenh18WrongPope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources.
156812013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme3WrongQiaochu will attend Story Night II
156822013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1RightI will attend Story Night II
156832013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1RightJocelyn B will attend Story Night II
156842013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1RightScott R will attend Story Night II
156852013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme3WrongVal will attend Story Night II
156862013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme3WrongAlli (Val's wife) will attend Story Night II
156872013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1RightJulia G will attend Story Night II
156882013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme2RightSasha W will attend Story Night II
156892013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1RightAlex D will attend Story Night II
156902013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1RightAllison K will attend Story Night II
156912013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme2RightJonathan P will attend Story Night II
156922013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1WrongAmbrose F will attend Story Night II
156932013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme2WrongNora N will attend Story Night II
156942013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme2RightJustin C will attend Story Night II
156952013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme2RightDavid Garvey will attend Story Night II
156962013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1WrongAlexei A will attend Story Night II
156972013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1WrongMichael C will attend Story Night II
156982013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1WrongKimberley S will attend Story Night II
156992013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1WrongTom C will attend Story Night II
157002013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1WrongDan B will attend Story Night II
157012013-02-132013-02-18yaliceme1WrongBrian F will attend Story Night II
157022013-02-132013-05-17tormey3WrongToby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US).
157032013-02-132013-05-17tormey3WrongOn The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show.
157342013-02-132016-01-01simplicio30WrongUSA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016.
157962013-02-152014-01-01simplicio9WrongOscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp.
158752013-02-172013-02-18yaliceme1WrongBill K will attend Story Night II
158762013-02-172013-02-18yaliceme1RightRebecca G will attend Story Night II
158772013-02-172013-02-18yaliceme1WrongSE will attend Story Night II
158782013-02-172013-02-18yaliceme1WrongMatt V will attend story night II
158792013-02-172013-02-18yaliceme1RightAlan will attend Story Night II
158802013-02-172013-02-18yaliceme1RightLudwig S will attend Story Night II
159472013-02-202017-01-01simplicio9WrongRepublican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source).
159482013-02-202018-01-01simplicio11Wrong"Glasses" computing devices (peripheral or standalone - example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018.
159492013-02-202015-01-01simplicio6WrongUS minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015.
160222013-02-222013-02-24Peter Hurford2WrongTommy Lee Jones will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor
160232013-02-222013-02-24Peter Hurford3RightDaniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor
160242013-02-222014-11-05Peter Hurford8WrongThe Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections
160702013-02-242025-01-01JoshuaZ3By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime.
160712013-02-242014-01-16JoshuaZ7WrongBy January 1, 2014 I will have published at least one paper that involves Artin representations where I am the sole author.
161422013-02-252015-03-31gwern3WrongSilk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs
161432013-02-262013-07-31ledzep655110Wrongfeds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails
161562013-02-272014-01-01Digglerson7WrongAlex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013.
161662013-02-272013-02-27gwern1WrongXiXi: 2
161672013-02-272013-02-27gwern1RightXiXi: 3
161682013-02-272013-02-27gwern1WrongXiXi: 4
161692013-02-272013-02-27gwern1WrongXiXi: 5
161702013-02-272013-02-27gwern1WrongXiXi: 6
162312013-03-012013-03-02Peter Hurford1WrongToday's optional class will be worth attending
162322013-03-012013-03-02Peter Hurford1WrongThe professor will offer some sort of reward to the students who show up at today's optional class
162842013-03-042013-04-03tedks1RightThe price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $40 in the next 30 days.
162962013-03-052013-04-04tedks4RightThe price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $45.00 in the next 30 days.
163422013-03-062013-01-01daffodilian1RightNeither Highlight nor Circle will get big (i.e. become a big public company or exit for > $100m)
165292013-03-122013-03-16Roxolan2WrongThere will be five or six newcomers at the next Brussels LessWrong meetup.
165692013-03-142015-03-14nick1RightMy PredictionBook calibration will be obviously better by my 400th prediction than it is now at 208 predictions.
168102013-03-212013-04-20tedks3RightThe price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $75 within the next 30 days.
168302013-03-222017-01-01RandomThinker5WrongOne of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017
168332013-03-222013-04-07kilobug3Right Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.25 millions stretch goal
168342013-03-222013-04-07kilobug1RightTorment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.5 millions stretch goal
168562013-03-232023-01-01RandomThinker7One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023
168892013-03-252013-07-01RandomThinker1WithdrawnConditioned on the Miami Heat getting the all-time consecutive wins record, the Miami Heat won't win the NBA championship in 2013
168902013-03-252023-04-01Digglerson5By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification.
168912013-03-252013-03-26komponisto2WrongItalian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm acquittal of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher.
168922013-03-252013-03-26komponisto1WithdrawnItalian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm conviction of Amanda Knox on charge of calumny against Patrick Lumumba.
168932013-03-252014-04-01RandomThinker1RightCyprus will still be subject to capital controls a year from now (until 4/1/2014)
168942013-03-252013-09-01ygert7RightThe Magic: the Gathering block "Theros" will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed.
169892013-03-272014-01-01NathanMcKnight12WrongSupremes make same-sex marriage law of the land.
170112013-03-272013-07-01RandomThinker1RightCyprus will still be subject to capital controls three months from now (until 7/1/2013)
170952013-03-312014-01-01itaibn5Rightxkcd "Time" will show its last unique frame before 2014
170962013-03-312018-03-31zpinter12WrongThere will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers.
171072013-03-312013-05-15FestiveBleak3WrongYomi will be released for iOS by May 15th
171852013-04-032014-01-01ashrewdmint10RightBTC hits $200 within the year
171862013-04-032014-01-01ashrewdmint23RightBTC hits $500 within the year
171872013-04-032014-01-01ashrewdmint20RightBTC hits $1000 within the year
172492013-04-042038-04-04RobertLumley8In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.
172502013-04-042013-05-01hedges5WrongFacebook stock will go below 20 this month.
172512013-04-042014-01-01hedges14WrongA nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year.
172912013-04-062014-01-01RandomThinker4RightFacebook front page will have less than 10% market share of Android phones by Jan 1 2014
173322013-04-082014-01-01tkosiba5WrongGold price will be up this year
173392013-04-082013-04-27Peter Hurford4WrongThe upcoming Magic: The Gathering set, Dragon's Maze, will contain at least one legendary creature with precisely four colors.
173712013-04-102016-01-01RandomThinker2Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016
174402013-04-122013-06-12Peter Hurford8WrongWithin two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.).
174632013-04-132015-01-16Laurent Bossavit2WrongBy 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the supposed results of the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects were in fact the result of error, distorsion or fraud rather than conclusions from an actual survey
175052013-04-152016-11-15Osuniev22WrongThe next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat.
175942013-04-172013-04-16Peter Hurford1RightH&H will win the DCA PAES.
176102013-04-172013-05-22gwern9WrongBitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model
176112013-04-182015-01-01JoshuaZ9RightAt least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015
176682013-04-202013-05-25RandomThinker4WrongWSJ: Psy's new video Gentleman could break 1 billion views in a month
176772013-04-212013-04-26mrenouf3RightThe BTCUSD rate will go below $100 within the next 5 days.
177522013-04-252030-01-01JoshuaZ7An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030
177552013-04-252020-01-01RandomThinker4WrongTim Cook departs as CEO of Apple before Steve Ballmer departs as CEO of Microsoft
177562013-04-252020-01-01RandomThinker12WrongPaul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government
178012013-04-262013-04-26Peter Hurford1RightHung Tran is elected Vice President of Denison Campus Governance Association.
178022013-04-262013-04-26Peter Hurford1RightAna Morales is elected President of Denison Campus Governance Association.
178032013-04-262113-04-26NathanMcKnight3Life discovered on Jupiter in next 100 years.
178042013-04-262063-04-26NathanMcKnight7Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.
178112013-04-272013-11-16andrevan4WrongAnthony Weiner will be elected mayor of New York City.
178762013-05-012013-12-01JoshuaZ6RightThe Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013
178772013-05-012013-09-01Peter Hurford1WrongI will have my driver's license by 1 September, 2013.
178822013-05-012020-01-01ashrewdmint7WrongBitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity
178832013-05-012020-01-01ashrewdmint19WrongBitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves "Satoshi Nakomoto" and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin
178882013-05-022013-09-05RandomThinker5WrongAn NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season
178982013-05-022018-05-02gwern5RightGoogle Alerts will survive 5 more years
178992013-05-022018-05-02gwern7Right Google Analytics will survive 5 more years
179002013-05-022018-05-02gwern8Right Google Blogger will survive 5 more years
179012013-05-022018-05-02gwern2Right Google Calendar will survive 5 more years
179022013-05-022018-05-02gwern9Right Google Docs will survive 5 more years
179032013-05-022018-05-02gwern3Right Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years
179042013-05-022018-05-02gwern11RightGoogle Gmail will survive 5 more years
179052013-05-022018-05-02gwern13RightGoogle+ will survive 5 more years
179062013-05-022018-05-02gwern7RightGoogle Scholar will survive 5 more years
179072013-05-022018-05-02gwern7RightGoogle Voice will survive 5 more years
179122013-05-032018-05-03gwern17RightGoogle Search will survive 5 years
179132013-05-032018-05-03gwern10RightGoogle Translate will survive 5 years
179142013-05-032013-05-17Peter Hurford1RightRhode Island will legalize gay marriage within two weeks
179152013-05-032018-05-02RandomThinker4RightGoogle Chrome OS will survive 5 years
179162013-05-032018-05-02RandomThinker27RightGoogle Chrome browser will survive 5 years
179172013-05-032018-05-02RandomThinker5RightLarry Page will survive 5 years as Google CEO
179182013-05-032025-01-01RandomThinker3Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business
180502013-05-082015-01-01RandomThinker4WrongKickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015
180512013-05-082025-01-01RandomThinker1WrongThe press will report a DYI synthetic organism product is banned, before a 3D printed gun product is banned
180642013-05-092023-05-09Isaac1I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years
180652013-05-092017-05-16Isaac1RightI will graduate from Washington University in St Louis with a degree in Economics in 2017
180662013-05-092017-05-09Isaac1WrongI will graduate with a degree in any field other than economics from Washington University in St Louis
180912013-05-102014-01-01DrDiaphanous2WrongIn HPMOR, Snape is responsible for framing Hermione.
180922013-05-102014-01-01DrDiaphanous5Wrong_HP MoR_: Dumbledore is responsible for framing Hermione.
180932013-05-102014-01-01DrDiaphanous7Wrong_HP MoR_: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione.
180942013-05-102014-01-01DrDiaphanous6Wrong_HP MoR_: Hermione alone is responsible for the attempted murder.
180952013-05-102014-01-01DrDiaphanous10Wrong_HP MoR_: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione.
181562013-05-132013-06-01itaibn3WrongOOTS: Comic #887 is Elan's prophesized happy ending.
181662013-05-142050-01-01JoshuaZ4Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050
181672013-05-142020-01-01JoshuaZ3WrongTwin prime conjecture solved by 2020
181682013-05-142035-01-01JoshuaZ6RightThere exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035
181762013-05-152020-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongThe Stig is Sabine Schmitz and this will be reported by a mainstream newspaper before 2020.
182282013-05-192018-05-19NancyLebovitz38RightGoogle will survive for five more years
182292013-05-192028-05-19NancyLebovitz19Google will survive for 15 more years
182392013-05-202050-01-16JoshuaZ7Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050
182812013-05-212100-06-01Tuxedage1We will never have a colony on mars larger than 25 people without launch costs going below $250/kg
184752013-05-262014-01-01atroche4WrongClojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013.
184762013-05-262017-07-06atroche1WrongIn the AFL, the Hawks will defeat Geelong in round 15.
185012013-05-282015-01-01JoshuaZ2RightRob Ford will not the mayor of Toronto by January 1, 2015
186532013-06-022013-04-01KnaveOfAllTrades1RightCP does not comment on 'literally' in Double Standards 'cut' line explanation.
186572013-06-032013-06-03Peter Hurford1RightAt least one person in our group will get lost on the subway (get off on the wrong stop or fail to get on) during an official portion of our trip (a part paid for by the trip).
186582013-06-032013-07-11Peter Hurford2RightI will go to England this summer
187292013-06-052063-06-05hedges1WithdrawnThe world will be a better place in 50 years.
188602013-06-072014-06-07Tenoke4Right1 USD will be worth more than 120 ripples. (that is the price of ripples will drop to 120 or more per $1) by/on the 7th of June 2014. Making this to remind myself of a bet for 50 gbp with a friend.
193172013-06-162013-06-21Michael Dickens1WrongMy final grade in Math108 will be a B+.
193182013-06-162013-06-21Michael Dickens1RightMy final grade in Spanish will be an A.
193192013-06-162013-06-21Michael Dickens1WrongMy final grade in THINK25 will be an A.
194632013-06-202013-06-29JoshuaZ1RightZhang's bound reduced to 50,000 by June 29,2013
197662013-06-272013-07-27ashrewdmint3WrongI will gain 2 lbs (weight >= 120 lbs) in one month.
198612013-06-302015-06-30gwern17Wrong_HP MoR_: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost
198622013-06-302015-06-30gwern23Wrong_HP MoR_: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape
198712013-06-302013-07-02Robert1WrongHP MoR: During the current crisis, after (in real time) end of chapter 89, no potentially dangerous person or creature will be loose and alone anywhere in Hogwarts where a student would normally be.
198852013-07-012015-07-01bt_uytya3WrongHP MOR: Events of ch 89 aren't what they appear to be.
199072013-07-012013-12-01JoshuaZ5RightMorsi will be out of power by December 1, 2013
199272013-07-022014-01-16Kurosymph7Wrong_HP MoR_: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux.
199282013-07-022014-02-01ygert14Wrong_HP MoR_: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione.
199482013-07-022013-09-02jaibot8Wrong_HP MoR_: Minerva McGonagall said "Not your fault" in Chapter 89.
199542013-07-032013-07-22jaibot1WrongPowershame will release an alpha for Linux by July 22, 2013
200532013-07-062014-07-06Benja21Right_HP MoR_: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess
200622013-07-062013-07-06High_Fiber_Twigs1WrongMy lungs will not be hurting.
201572013-07-082014-01-01Michael Dickens1RightBy 1 January 2014, I will have at least 13,000 comment karma on Reddit.
201582013-07-082014-01-01Michael Dickens1WrongBy 1 January 2014, I will have at least 15,000 comment karma on Reddit.
201592013-07-082014-01-01Michael Dickens1WrongBy 1 January 2014, I will have at least 100 link karma on Reddit.
201602013-07-082014-01-01Michael Dickens1WrongBy 1 January 2014, I will have at least 20,000 comment karma on Reddit.
201612013-07-082014-06-01Michael Dickens1WrongI will take at least 45 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year.
201622013-07-082014-06-01Michael Dickens1WrongI will take at least 50 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year.
201632013-07-082013-09-24Michael Dickens1WrongMy current programming project will be at least 10,000 lines of code (including comments and whitespace) by the end of summer.
203292013-07-122013-08-12Roxolan3RightOn August 12, "Chandra, Pyromaster" will be sold at 9.95$ or more on starcitygames.com
203302013-07-122013-08-12Roxolan2WrongOn August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 19.95$ or more on starcitygames.com
203312013-07-122023-01-01NathanMcKnight8Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky.
203322013-07-132016-01-0575th9Wrong_HP MoR:_ Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.
203662013-07-132013-09-22jasticE3WrongDexter Season 8: Harrison shows development of a "dark passenger"; Debra takes the role of his guide, as Harry was for Dexter.
203672013-07-132013-09-22jasticE2WrongDexter Season 8: Harrison draws pictures involving murder or dead people.
203682013-07-132013-09-22jasticE3WrongDexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail
203692013-07-132018-07-14halfwit10WrongWithin five years, Gwern will be hired as a "statistician columnist" by a mainstream blog; "mainstream blog" is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets.
203742013-07-142013-07-14Cakoluchiam1RightThere is no PredictionBook app nor official quicklink for a mobile version of PredictionBook as of July 13th, 2013.
203752013-07-142013-07-14Cakoluchiam1WrongThere is an mobile version of the PredictionBook website as of July 13th, 2013
203802013-07-142013-09-01Jayson Virissimo3RightI will get a C or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java.
203812013-07-142013-09-01Jayson Virissimo2RightI will get a B or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java.
203822013-07-142013-09-01Jayson Virissimo2RightI will get a A or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java.
204042013-07-142013-07-14Peter Hurford1WrongIn the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor existential risk as their top cause.
204052013-07-142013-07-14Peter Hurford1WrongIn the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor animal welfare as their top cause.
204062013-07-142013-07-14Peter Hurford1WrongAt the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor poverty.
204072013-07-142013-07-14Peter Hurford1RightAt the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor existential risk.
204082013-07-142013-07-14Peter Hurford1RightAt the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor animal welfare.
204152013-07-152013-09-21Mathias Zaman1RightMinotaurs will be a tribe in Theros.
204482013-07-152013-07-23Peter Hurford1WrongWithin one week, I will have one month membership to a local gym in the UK.
204492013-07-152013-07-23Peter Hurford1RightIn one week, I will own or borrow a bike.
204502013-07-162014-01-01Jayson Virissimo1RightAt some point before 2014, 1% or more of my investment portfolio will be in Bitcoin.
204702013-07-162013-08-13phreeza3RightElon Musk's Hyperloop will consist of vehicles travelling in a tunnel or enclosed tube
205642013-07-182015-07-18Tenoke12WrongYvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years.
205912013-07-192014-01-01azax11WrongI will have read at least 30 books during 2013.
205922013-07-192014-01-01azax11WrongI will have read at least 35 books during 2013.
205962013-07-192014-01-01azax11RightMy favorite (fiction) book will be "Earth Abides" on January 1, 2014.
205972013-07-192015-01-01azax11RightMy favorite (fiction) book will be "Earth Abides" on January 1, 2015.
205982013-07-192014-01-01azax11WrongI will have read at least 40 books during 2013.
206262013-07-202014-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2013: "Overloaded record fields for GHC"
206272013-07-202014-01-01gwern1RightGSoC 2013: "interactive-diagrams and a paste site with the ability for dynamic rendering of diagrams"
206282013-07-202014-01-01gwern2WithdrawnGSoC 2013: "Haddock extension for Pandoc compatibility"
206292013-07-202014-01-01gwern2RightGSoC 2013: "Port Charts to use Diagrams"
206302013-07-202014-01-01gwern3RightGSoC 2013: "Better record command for darcs"
206312013-07-202014-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2013: "Communicating with mobile devices"
206322013-07-202014-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2013: "Improve the feedback of the cabal-install dependency solver"
206332013-07-202014-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2013: "Parallelise `cabal build`"
206342013-07-202014-01-01gwern1RightGSoC 2013: "Extending GHC to support building modules in parallel"
206352013-07-202014-01-01gwern1WrongGSoC 2013: "Haskell Qt Binding Generator"
206502013-07-202013-07-27Peter Hurford1WrongNick will come over for Fun Time at least once within the next seven days.
206512013-07-202013-12-31Peter Hurford3RightJoey and Xio's study will find further evidence in favor of vegetarianism advocacy
206822013-07-222014-01-01Malcolm Ocean1RightI will complete a total of at least 24 blog posts in 2013.
207042013-07-222013-11-01Malcolm Ocean2WrongAt least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Nov 1, 2013.
207102013-07-222013-10-01Malcolm Ocean1RightAt least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013.
207112013-07-222013-09-01Malcolm Ocean3WrongAt least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Sept 1, 2013.
207122013-07-222014-08-01Malcolm Ocean1WrongAt least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014.
207132013-07-222014-01-01Malcolm Ocean3WrongAt least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014.
207142013-07-222013-10-01Malcolm Ocean1WrongAt least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013.
207152013-07-222014-08-01Malcolm Ocean1WrongAt least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014.
207162013-07-222014-07-22Malcolm Ocean2WrongThere will be a university/college-affiliated study on polyphasic sleep that begins within a year.
207202013-07-232013-07-24PrinceMachiavelli1WithdrawnColorado Springs city council will vote in favor of a moratorium on the issue of Amendment 64
207452013-07-252013-08-21ygert22RightHP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco.
207462013-07-252013-08-21ygert14WrongHP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell.
207472013-07-252014-07-25ygert14WrongHP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks.
207722013-07-262028-12-31ArisKatsaris2Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028.
207832013-07-282018-07-01ygert14HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the "tear apart the very stars in heaven" phrase in the prophecy was referring to.
207842013-07-282013-09-01jasticE5RightSMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013
207852013-07-282014-01-01shlevy1RightOzy will get back together with internet feminism by 2014
208222013-07-312013-11-11thostian2WrongLabour's current civil war (progress/unite) will cause the formation of a successful and large second party.
208232013-07-312013-08-20thostian5RightI will get into my first choice for university
208242013-07-312013-08-02thostian1WrongI will be recovered from my illness within two days
208252013-07-312013-08-02thostian2RightMy blood test will show nothing of great import
208262013-07-312013-08-14thostian2RightI will finish my books within the week
208272013-07-312014-07-31thostian3WrongLiam Fox will return to a Cabinet post in the next reshuffle
208282013-07-312014-01-01sdr5WrongBy January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK.
208322013-08-012032-11-02Messias6Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America.
208462013-08-032016-11-06tinatoys21WrongRand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes... all the "hot issues" for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet.
208512013-08-032014-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongShenmue HD will be released before 2014.
208662013-08-052013-09-04Lemmih2RightJA Bayes will spend more than 6 hours using FL Studio over the next 30 days.
208992013-08-082014-03-15mavant1RightI will be admitted to at least one medical school for the class of 2014.
209002013-08-082013-09-01mavant1WrongI will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August.
209012013-08-082013-10-01mavant1WrongI will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of September.
209022013-08-092018-09-01RandomThinker1WrongThe Elysium (2013) will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 90m), but will be a cult favorite 5 years from now
209062013-08-092015-01-01mavant2WrongThe Litecoin-Bitcoin exchange rate will reach 5:1 L:B or greater by 2015.
209072013-08-092013-08-10Carnegie1RightI will go on a time-wasting site in the next 8 hours
209472013-08-122050-01-01Malcolm Ocean4Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050.
209482013-08-122030-01-01Malcolm Ocean9Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.
209522013-08-122013-08-19Jayson Virissimo1RightI will get an A or better on my CSE 110 final tomorrow.
209532013-08-132014-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will complete all Duolingo lessons for Spanish before 2014.
209542013-08-132015-07-0175th10Wrong_HP MoR:_ We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell.
209862013-08-152100-01-01Malcolm Ocean5When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it.
209872013-08-152100-01-01Malcolm Ocean3One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water
209882013-08-152100-01-01Malcolm Ocean3If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered.
210432013-08-222034-06-01Omid11In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.
210442013-08-222033-01-01Omid12The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.
210712013-08-262013-09-23ericlefevre2RightLa Story Robustesse des tests nous a permis de rendre les tests de plateforme et de contrat vraiment plus stables.
210822013-08-262028-08-26Ben Doherty18It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads
211672013-09-052015-01-01Osuniev6Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head.
211682013-09-052015-01-01Osuniev4Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads.
211722013-09-052014-01-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will get an A or better in CSE 205: Object-Oriented Programming and Data Structures.
211902013-09-072014-12-31Michal1E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2014
212132013-09-072025-01-01Jayson Virissimo1I will publically convert to Buddhism before 2025.
212142013-09-072025-01-01Jayson Virissimo4I will publically convert to Islam before 2025.
212152013-09-072013-12-16Michael Dickens1RightI will drop at least 1 class this quarter.
212162013-09-072014-01-01Michael Dickens1WithdrawnI will make an A- or higher in CS 110: Principles of Computer Systems.
212172013-09-072014-01-01Michael Dickens1WithdrawnI will make a B- or higher in CS 110: Principles of Computer Systems.
212182013-09-072014-07-01Michael Dickens1WrongI will go to at least 1 frat party during the 2013/14 school year.
212322013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WrongThe Wife of Bath will have a tale of the form "How I wooed/lost my nth husband"
212332013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WithdrawnThe Summoner will have a tale of the form "The horrific crimes I've seen."
212342013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WithdrawnThe Summoner will have a tale of the form "Here's why you don't want to be summoned by me."
212352013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WrongConditioned on the Summoner not having a tale of this form, The Pardoner will have a tale of the form "The things that I've seen"
212362013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WrongThe Pardoner will have a tale of the form "How a good-ish man was never shrived and (probably) went to hell."
212372013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WithdrawnThe Friar will have a tale of the form "This awesome banquet I was at, and how I got myself in..."
212382013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WithdrawnThe Friar will have a tale of the form "See? Holy people can be rich and still be holy," OR "See? Being poor doesn't make you any more holy."
212392013-09-092013-09-23linkhyrule51WithdrawnThe Friar will tell the tale of meeting the Pope.
212492013-09-102013-09-23ericlefevre1RightLa suppression du binôme de maintenance et gestion + challenging au stand-up par l'équipe ne causera pas de problème
212502013-09-102013-09-23ericlefevre1WrongLe BOSS Talk Pomodoro va nous aider à nous concentrer
212512013-09-102014-09-15ericlefevre1WrongAu minimum 3/4 de l'équipe BOSS est présente à tout moment, en particulier pendant l'été
212812013-09-132018-12-31mfb5NASA will not announce "Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space" again within the next 5 years
212862013-09-142030-01-01Ben Doherty12Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030
212872013-09-142030-01-01Ben Doherty1Human drivers will be illegal on *some* Australian roads by 2030
212882013-09-142013-10-27Flipnash3WrongIn the next arc Taylor will have a second trigger event.[worm web serial]
212912013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan4RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anger of the Gods
212922013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan2RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Xenagos, the Reveler
212932013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Chained to the Rocks
212942013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Deceit
212952013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Stormbreath Dragon
212962013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hero's Downfall
212972013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Abandon
212982013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Mystery
212992013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Silence
213002013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Triumph
213012013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thassa, God of the Sea
213022013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fabled Hero
213032013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Sylvan Caryatid
213042013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Heliod, God of the Sun
213052013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Polukranos, World Eater
213062013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Steam Augury
213072013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Elspeth, Sun's Champion
213082013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan2WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Curse of the Swine
213092013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prognostic Sphinx
213102013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Boon Satyr
213112013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fleecemane Lion
213122013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Purphoros, God of the Forge
213132013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan3RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
213142013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Gift of Immortality
213152013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Spear of Heliod
213162013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Erebos, God of the Dead
213172013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Master of Waves
213182013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Firedrinker Satyr
213192013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Mistcutter Hydra
213202013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
213212013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Soldier of the Pantheon
213222013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nylea, God of the Hunt
213232013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anax and Cymede
213242013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Daxos of Meletis
213252013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hammer of Purphoros
213262013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Bow of Nylea
213272013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reverent Hunter
213282013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan2WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Artisan of Forms
213292013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Agent of the Fates
213302013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan2RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Whip of Erebos
213312013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reaper of the Wilds
213322013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Arbor Colossus
213332013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan3WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Swan Song
213342013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prophet of Kruphix
213352013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan1WrongIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Tymaret, the Murder King
213362013-09-142013-10-14Roxolan2RightIn the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: a Theros rare/mythic that I haven't listed in my other predictions (predictionbook.com/predictions/21290 to 21335)
213662013-09-182014-04-01Omid4WrongGrand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014
213692013-09-182013-09-28atroche1RightGeelong will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final
213702013-09-182013-09-28atroche1RightFremantle will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final
213712013-09-182014-09-18Flipnash2WithdrawnThe simurgh is playing taylor and lisa. [worm]
213722013-09-182013-10-16atroche2RightThe Turning will have a Rotten Tomatoes rating >= 75%
213732013-09-182013-10-15ygert4WrongAt least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks.
213752013-09-182013-10-10Osuniev1RightCIV PBF 88 : Arabia wins
213892013-09-202023-09-20ygert5"I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop." -- EY (on Facebook)
214302013-09-232013-10-23phreeza2RightAngela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany
214862013-09-292013-10-03JoshuaZ2RightUS government shutdown will occur.
214942013-09-302013-09-30notsonewuser1RightThe New England Patriots will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Atlanta Falcons.
215262013-10-022015-01-05JoshuaZ4WrongDemocrats to gain control of the House at the next midterm election.
215272013-10-022015-01-05JoshuaZ12RightRepublicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election.
215282013-10-022014-03-01RandomThinker1WrongMark Cuban will lose his insider trading case
215342013-10-022014-06-01sdr4WrongSR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: "conspiring to murder" will turn out not to be true
215422013-10-032015-10-03tedks2WrongSR: Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of narcotics trafficking (or conspiracy).
215532013-10-032014-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongThe New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or USA Today will publish an article concerning Jonathan Foster's murder before 2014.
215672013-10-032013-12-01tylercurtis2WrongI will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of November (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook).
215682013-10-032015-01-01tylercurtis2WrongI will make at least 100 public predictions on PredictionBook in 2014 (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook).
215712013-10-032016-02-15henchman216WrongWindows phone quarterly sales as a percentage of smartphones sold will eclipse iphone by 4th quarter 2015
215752013-10-032013-10-04alexaltair1RightI will see a cat before I go to sleep (after the current time of 2PM).
215812013-10-042013-10-08RandomThinker15RightGovernment shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning)
215822013-10-042013-10-16RandomThinker11RightGovernment shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning)
215882013-10-042014-10-05gwern3WrongSR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year.
215892013-10-042015-10-04gwern4SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years.
215902013-10-052013-10-30foo1RightIn its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month.
215912013-10-052013-10-30foo1WrongIn its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month.
215922013-10-052013-10-30foo1WrongIn its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month.
215932013-10-052013-10-30foo1RightIn its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month.
215942013-10-052013-10-30foo1WrongIn its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month.
215952013-10-052013-10-30foo1WrongIn its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month.
215962013-10-052013-12-18foo1WrongIn its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month.
215972013-10-052013-12-18foo1RightIn its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month.
215982013-10-052013-12-18foo1WrongIn its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month.
215992013-10-052013-12-18foo1WrongIn its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month.
216002013-10-052013-12-18foo1WrongIn its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month.
216012013-10-052013-12-18foo1RightIn its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month.
216022013-10-052013-10-12foo4RightThe Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013.
216082013-10-052013-10-22gwern1WrongSR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 22 October 2013
216092013-10-052016-10-05gwern1WithdrawnSR: the user 'redandwhite' was a government agent.
216102013-10-052014-10-05gwern1WrongSR: the Maryland trial will finish within a year.
216112013-10-052014-10-05gwern1WrongSR: the NYC trial will finish within a year
216122013-10-052016-10-05gwern6RightSR: Ross Ulbricht was the original founder and only owner of SR
216132013-10-052016-10-05gwern1WrongSR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Romania
216142013-10-052016-10-05gwern1WrongSR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Latvia
216152013-10-052016-10-05gwern1WrongSR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Sweden
216162013-10-052016-10-05gwern2RightSR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in neither Romania nor Latvia nor Sweden
216172013-10-052016-10-05gwern1RightSR: the Maryland employee plea-bargained & cooperated with the government
216182013-10-052015-01-01Omid5WrongWendy Davis elected governor of Texas.
216192013-10-052014-06-03Tuxedage10WrongThe Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented.
216322013-10-062014-01-01tylercurtis1WrongMy personal website will be up-and-running again by 2014
216652013-10-092015-10-01zzkt2WrongFF: a prolonged series of predictions (and reflection on the predictions) will help separate things which can be predicted (and which it is useful to predict) from those which are immune to prediction.
216682013-10-092013-10-18notsonewuser1WrongI will attend Kent Hack Enough 2013.
216692013-10-092014-05-10notsonewuser4WrongI will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester.
216782013-10-102013-10-12notsonewuser1WrongI will receive at least 50 special comments on my special Facebook status before I go to bed tomorrow.
216792013-10-102021-01-01Omid15USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021
216802013-10-102014-04-10notsonewuser1WrongI will post my planned comment on Occam's Razor on Less Wrong (see http://lesswrong.com/lw/s0/where_recursive_justification_hits_bottom/9vi3) in the next 6 months, as opposed to later than that (or never).
216812013-10-102014-07-02Thelas1RightThe second Android: Netrunner big box expansion will feature Jinteki (in the same way as the first featured Haas-Bioroid).
216952013-10-112013-12-25notsonewuser2Right[mredactedw] will get an A in algorithms this semester.
216962013-10-112014-01-27notsonewuser2Wrong[mredacteds] will get an A in algorithms this semester.
216972013-10-112024-01-01Omid1New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024
217042013-10-112015-06-30timesuptim2RightFF: we will use multiple logos.
217052013-10-112013-11-01notsonewuser1RightI will get some unexpected points on Problem 2 of 10-11 algorithms homework.
217062013-10-112013-10-11notsonewuser1RightMy friend will get the right answer in algorithms class on 10/11/2013.
217212013-10-132014-04-13recondaddy9RightThe majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014.
217332013-10-152013-10-15notsonewuser1RightThe Hawaiian punch will be gone from the fridge.
217432013-10-162013-11-06notsonewuser1RightI got more than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm.
217442013-10-162013-11-06notsonewuser1WrongI will get at least 54 points on Part II of the algorithms midterm.
217482013-10-162013-12-25notsonewuser1RightI will get a homework average of at least 92.5% for the whole semester for algorithms.
217492013-10-162013-12-25notsonewuser1RightI will get a homework average of at least 95% for the whole semester for algorithms.
217602013-10-172014-10-17gwern3RightSheep Marketplace will cease operating within a year.
217712013-10-182020-01-01NathanMcKnight4WrongTed Cruz will not win a term as US Senator contiguous with his current term.
217722013-10-182016-12-31NathanMcKnight5WithdrawnHillary Clinton will go unopposed in 2016 Democratic primaries.
217732013-10-182016-12-31NathanMcKnight1Contingent on his winning the nomination, Rand Paul will make double digit gains over John McCain among minority voters.
217792013-10-192013-12-20gwern11WrongThe price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013.
217852013-10-212025-01-01Omid3The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013.
217892013-10-212013-11-11tylercurtis2RightI will receive at least 90% on the Discrete Math midterm from today.
217902013-10-212013-11-11tylercurtis2WithdrawnI will only lose points on the Discrete Math midterm from today for arithmetic errors or not performing as much calculation as desired by the grader.
217912013-10-222014-01-26notsonewuser1WithdrawnI will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14.
217922013-10-222014-01-26notsonewuser3RightI will not attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14.
217932013-10-222014-01-26notsonewuser5WrongI will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time).
217942013-10-222013-10-24Jayson Virissimo1RightI will score greater than 85% on my MAT 265 Mastery Test.
218062013-10-232013-11-08Jach1WrongPython SAR algorithm done by end of week 6
218072013-10-232013-11-15Jach1WrongTime-lapse dolly motorized and controlled by uC by end of week 7
218082013-10-232013-11-15Jach1WrongPCB finished and sent for printing by end of week 7
218092013-10-232013-12-06Jach1WrongI will be satisfied with project demo
218122013-10-232013-10-23notsonewuser1RightOur landline phone will be fixed when we check.
218132013-10-232013-10-23notsonewuser1RightThe bridge to Goat Island will be open.
218142013-10-232013-11-06notsonewuser1RightThe algorithm I specified for Question 2c on the midterm was incorrect.
218152013-10-232013-10-23notsonewuser1WrongOver 95% percent of former student athletes have made a donation to the UB annual fund.
218162013-10-232014-09-01notsonewuser3WrongI will not live at home next year.
218192013-10-242015-01-01Jayson Virissimo2PubMed's comment system will have some form of human moderation before 2015.
219012013-10-302014-10-30gwern1RightBMR will not be operating in 12 months
219022013-10-302014-04-30gwern2RightSheep Marketplace will not be operating in 6 months
219032013-10-302014-10-30gwern2RightSheep will not be operating in 12 months
219392013-11-012014-01-02tedks7WrongBoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013.
219402013-11-012015-11-01gwern12WrongDragos Ruiu's "badBIOS" claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet
220032013-11-072013-11-08RandomThinker1RightTwitter stock price will exceed $40 a share on IPO day.
220202013-11-092013-11-30notsonewuser1WrongI will get more than 85 points on algorithms HW7.
220212013-11-092013-11-12notsonewuser1RightThe first typo is correct.
220222013-11-092014-11-09eface882WrongMaxmaps will no longer be working at Squad on November 9th 2014 00:01 UTC.
220352013-11-112016-11-30najdorf38WrongHillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election.
220752013-11-122015-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will visit Spain before 2015.
220762013-11-122015-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will visit both Spain and France (again) before 2015.
220832013-11-122013-12-13gwern1RightBMR will shut down within a month.
220962013-11-132015-01-01atroche1WrongI will write 1667 words or more of fiction a day for an entire month during 2014
220972013-11-132013-11-16Gurkenglas1RightThis LW comment of mine will not have a ratio of upvotes to total votes between 40% and 80% in three days
220982013-11-132015-05-09a0c4a123f75WrongThe Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election
221052013-11-152014-02-01bobpage11Wrong Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014.
221062013-11-152015-01-01bobpage1RightBy 2015, youtube.com will have an option (or default) that serves HTML5 video for >80% of the videos linked on their homepage.
221072013-11-152014-01-01bobpage1WrongI will watch any of Homeland 3x08 - 3x12 before 2014
221082013-11-152015-01-01bobpage4WrongI will switch to a primary non-Windows desktop or laptop before 2015
221092013-11-152015-01-01bobpage3WrongI will switch to Emacs as my primary editor for writing code, before 2015
221102013-11-152015-01-01bobpage1RightI will write a > 100 line Python program or modify > 100 same-program lines of Python in 2014
221112013-11-152015-01-01bobpage1WrongI will write a > 200 line non-web/WebView mobile application before 2015
221122013-11-152025-01-01najdorf7The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).
221152013-11-152020-01-01sdr9WrongThe European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020
221352013-11-162013-11-16notsonewuser1RightFlorida State will not try a fake punt (on a specific play).
221362013-11-172013-11-17notsonewuser1WrongAuburn will complete a certain 3rd down in today's football game.
221372013-11-172013-11-18notsonewuser1RightAuburn will win today's football game against Georgia.
221382013-11-172014-01-18notsonewuser1Right"Story of My Life" by One Direction will be in the top 3 tracks for the United States on Spotify on or before January 17, 2014.
221392013-11-172015-01-01bobpage5WrongMassive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015
221462013-11-182014-11-17alecbrooks1WrongI will still be using this in a year.
221742013-11-222013-12-05notsonewuser1RightI will get at least a 90 on algorithms homework 8.
221752013-11-222013-12-05notsonewuser1RightI will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8.
221762013-11-222013-11-22notsonewuser1WrongLW Survey calibration answer.
221772013-11-222013-11-23notsonewuser1WrongOur professor will reveal the homework answer before it is due.
221782013-11-222014-11-22gwern6WrongZerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year
221792013-11-222018-11-22gwern4WithdrawnZerocoin market cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch)
221802013-11-222018-11-22gwern6WithdrawnZerocoin market cap >$7,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch)
221812013-11-222014-11-22gwern7WrongZerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year
221822013-11-222018-11-22gwern13WrongZerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years
221942013-11-232018-11-23gwern3WrongAssassination Market will still be up in 5 years.
221952013-11-232014-11-23gwern3WrongAssassination Market will still be up in 1 year.
222092013-11-242014-01-01ArisKatsaris5WrongBitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 50-149$ (mtgox prices)
222102013-11-242014-01-01ArisKatsaris5WrongBitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 350-549$ (mtgox prices)
222112013-11-242014-01-01ArisKatsaris5WrongBitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 550-749$ (mtgox prices)
222122013-11-242014-01-01ArisKatsaris6RightBitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices)
222132013-11-242014-01-01ArisKatsaris11WrongBitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices)
222142013-11-242014-01-01ArisKatsaris4WrongBitcoin price on 2014-01-01: > 2000$ (mtgox prices)
222152013-11-242014-01-01ArisKatsaris5WrongBitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices)
222432013-11-262014-01-02mavant1WrongI will be rejected from Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13).
222522013-11-272014-01-12Grognor8WrongTakers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate
222592013-11-282015-01-01lavalamp2WrongBy 2015, China will outlaw bitcoin, or otherwise do something to to make it impossible or very difficult to use bitcoin to evade their capital controls.
222692013-11-282015-01-01notsonewuser2WrongI will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015.
222702013-11-282013-11-28notsonewuser1RightMy guess was correct.
222872013-11-302015-01-01notsonewuser6WrongI will not look at porn from *now* until January 1, 2015.
222932013-12-012014-01-01bobpage2WrongI will speak (under any nickname) more than 50 lines total in #lesswrong, between now and 2014
223082013-12-012013-12-31tedks6RightBitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days.
223602013-12-052013-12-08ZGreyArea2RightI will find a suitable Hobbit costume at the op-shop on Sunday
223612013-12-052013-12-15ZGreyArea2RightThe Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug) will score at least an 8 on imdb on December 15th.
223762013-12-072020-01-01RandomThinker30WrongNick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto
224202013-12-102013-12-12adbge1RightPope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year.
224692013-12-142013-12-25notsonewuser1WrongI will get exactly 86 points on the algorithms final.
224702013-12-142015-01-01notsonewuser1WrongI will not place a bet on just-dice.com from now until 2015.
224922013-12-152014-01-27notsonewuser1Wrong[redacted] will ask for a regrade on eir algorithms exam, and get at least 1 point back.
224952013-12-162113-12-16NathanMcKnight5There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years.
225052013-12-172014-01-01notsonewuser1WrongOn the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504).
225062013-12-172014-01-01notsonewuser1RightOn the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504).
225072013-12-172014-01-01notsonewuser1WrongOn the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504).
225082013-12-172014-01-01notsonewuser1WrongOn the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504).
225092013-12-172014-01-01notsonewuser1WrongOn the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504).
225102013-12-172014-01-01notsonewuser1WrongOn the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504).
225112013-12-172014-01-01notsonewuser1WrongOn the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504).
225122013-12-172015-01-01notsonewuser3WrongI will be in the process of deleting my Facebook account before the end of 2013, and I will not use Facebook during 2014.
225692013-12-222014-01-01atroche1WrongI will successfully complete the 750 Words monthly challenge for December
225812013-12-232013-12-23notsonewuser1RightBuffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins yesterday.
226512013-12-312170-01-01deanmullen20147The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state
226522013-12-312150-01-01deanmullen20142An Anti-Specieist World by 2150. Animal Exploitation will be a thing of the past, old blatant discrimination no longer accepted and the reduction of wild animal suffering a real task.
226532013-12-312110-01-01deanmullen20141Virtual Immersion Technology will open up personalized virtual world's, VI video games & most popularly virtual cities (owned by companies similar to Google) in the 22nd century
226542013-12-312115-01-01deanmullen20141Neo-Luddist's will be the Al-Qaeda of the 2110's.
226552013-12-312130-01-01deanmullen20141WithdrawnA Transhumanist Organization's HQ's on the Moon will be tragically bombed by backward thinking Neo-Luddist's in the 2120s
226562013-12-312130-01-01deanmullen20142Uganda will legalize Gay Marriage by 2130. Yes you read that right! It will probably occur in the 2110s or 2120s.
226572013-12-312055-01-01deanmullen20147Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s
226582013-12-312070-01-01deanmullen20143At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070.
226592013-12-312014-10-31deanmullen20145WrongThe outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014
226602013-12-312150-01-01deanmullen20143You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150.
226612013-12-312030-07-31deanmullen20142Brazil will beat Argentina in the 2030 World Cup Final in Beonas Aires.
226622013-12-312025-01-01deanmullen20144Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024
226632013-12-312014-12-31mastermind81892WrongAfter Steve Ballmer Leaves Microsoft, the new stock price will nose dive. This will be because the incoming CEO will realize the mess he was left to clean up. By the end of 2014, the price will be around $30/share- (possibly - in the high $20's)
226822014-01-012015-07-01waveman3WrongI will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by mid 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms.
226832014-01-012014-12-31waveman2WrongI will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2014. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book.
226842014-01-012014-04-30waveman2RightI will be doing my 1.5km course with a 30kg back pack by end April 2014.
226852014-01-012014-06-30waveman3RightI will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014.
226862014-01-012014-12-31waveman5RightI will be able to do 20 full range pull-ups by end 2014.
226872014-01-012014-10-31waveman3WrongI will be able to do 10 sprints to the top of the hill near my house in 15 minutes including returns but not counting the last return. By end October.
226882014-01-012014-07-01waveman3WrongI will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts.
226892014-01-012014-12-31waveman2WrongShare trading in place by eoy 2014
226902014-01-012014-09-30waveman3WrongFutures trading all done and in place with all the high priority strategies done by end September 2014
226932014-01-012014-01-01notsonewuser1RightMy father will beat my mother in a game of Stratego.
226962014-01-012014-03-25Michael Dickens2WrongI will make an A or higher in PWR.
227362014-01-022014-02-01lettergram7RightBitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month
227372014-01-022015-01-02adbge1WrongIn one year, an oz of marijuana will cost less than $150 (after taxes) in Colorado.
227382014-01-022015-01-02adbge8RightThe One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed.
227392014-01-022014-11-05adbge2WrongPat Quinn wins the 2014 Illinois Gubernatorial election.
227662014-01-032014-06-17Tuxedage6WrongDogecoin will be worth more than 1000 Satoshis ($0.00755000) by June 2014 (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices)
227682014-01-032015-01-01notsonewuser9WrongBitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html)
227732014-01-042014-06-01notsonewuser2Right[mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester.
227742014-01-042014-01-06notsonewuser3WrongGreen Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow.
227752014-01-042014-02-03notsonewuser1WrongI will correctly guess the result of every game in the 2014 NFL Postseason (based on guesses in the comments of this prediction).
228182014-01-062014-01-07Michael Dickens1RightIn the article "8 Subconscious Mistakes Our Brains Make Every Day" that I'm about to read, I already know of at least 4 of the mistakes.
228192014-01-062015-01-06lavalamp3WrongA cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next year.
228202014-01-062019-01-06lavalamp6WrongA cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next five years.
228402014-01-082014-12-01NancyLebovitz1RightThere won't be any questions about street harassment in the 2014 Less Wrong survey.
228432014-01-082014-01-15gwern1WrongPandora Market will shut down / disable withdrawals within the next week.
228662014-01-102015-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will complete the Spanish skill tree on Duolingo before 2015.
228672014-01-102015-01-01Jayson Virissimo7RightI will read 12 books before 2015.
229402014-01-132015-01-01lavalamp3WrongThere will be less than 5 alt-coins (out of the 50+ in existence) that will survive 2014 - http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/
229412014-01-132015-01-01lavalamp2WrongThe price of Bitcoin is likely to range between $4000-5000 by the end of 2014 - http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/
229422014-01-132015-01-01lavalamp4WrongSatoshi Nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014 - http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/
229692014-01-142015-05-01entropy1RightI will finish CS124 this term
229702014-01-142014-05-01entropy1WrongI will get A's or A-'s in all my graded classes.
229802014-01-142014-09-01lettergram2WrongPrice per barrel of oil hits $110 by the end of summer.
229892014-01-152014-06-02Jayson Virissimo1RightI will get an 'A' or better in PHI 313: Probability, Evidence, and Decision.
229922014-01-152017-02-01waveman10RightOne of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever.
229932014-01-152014-12-31ygert9WrongThe total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year.
229942014-01-152014-05-01Roxolan4WrongThe website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive.
229952014-01-152016-12-31ygert11WrongHPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.)
230042014-01-152014-01-16Michael Dickens1WrongWhen I get to class, there will be at least 10 people there.
230052014-01-152014-01-16Michael Dickens1WrongWhen I get to class, there will be exactly 5 people there.
230062014-01-152014-04-01flyingfox3WrongThere will be no snow this March in Champaign
230362014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens3Right12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture.
230372014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongHer will win Best Picture.
230382014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongGravity will win Best Picture.
230392014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongAmerican Hustle will win Best Picture.
230402014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens3WrongThe Wolf of Wall Street will win Best Picture.
230412014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongChiwetel Ejiofor will win Best Actor.
230422014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongLeonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor.
230432014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongMeryl Streep will win Best Actress.
230442014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongSandra Bullock will win Best Actress.
230452014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens1RightFrozen will win Best Animated Feature Film.
230462014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens1WrongThe Wind Rises will win Best Animated Feature Film.
230472014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens2WrongThe Hobbit will win Best Visual Effects.
230482014-01-162014-03-03Michael Dickens1WrongStar Trek Into Darkness will win Best Visual Effects.
230702014-01-182014-01-19EvanB2RightI won't end up going to the Alexis Ohanian event tomorrow
230732014-01-182014-01-27EvanB1RightI will create a movie for Campus Moviefest this year.
230742014-01-182014-04-02lettergram62RightThere are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014.
230752014-01-182014-04-01Merinnan4RightHigh Court will rule for a re-election of the WA Senate.
230762014-01-182015-01-01Michael Dickens3WrongI will finish reading On Lisp before 2015.
230792014-01-182014-01-19Duyut2WithdrawnI will "feel"
231342014-01-202014-07-19lettergram3WrongI will have 2000 Anki cards within 6 months in my collections (it's only 12 a day)
231572014-01-202014-07-30Snowshi2WrongI will get a job after I graduate from high school.
231582014-01-202014-02-14Vulture1RightWhen the Wikimedia Commons RfC on the MP4 format closes, the majority of the !votes will be against any use of the format
231682014-01-212016-01-01mad3WrongAnderson Silva will announce his retirement from UFC by January 1st, 2016
231692014-01-212015-05-01mad2WrongSurvivor will have an all winners season for season 30
231702014-01-212014-12-31mad3WrongAustralia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight)
231722014-01-212014-12-16mad4WrongAustralia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (middleweight)
231942014-01-212014-01-25briennestrohl3WrongSomeone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10)
231952014-01-212014-01-21reesarose1RightThere will be a snow storm tonight
232282014-01-222014-11-16Pandster1WithdrawnMore people will lose money, become more uncertain about their futures,but will embrace their surrounding people more as a result.
232292014-01-222015-01-01orthonormal3WrongHarry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting "Psyche" fake-endings).
232302014-01-222014-02-18Vulture2WrongConditional on the current MP4 RfC failing to gain consensus for use of the format, the WMF will enable uploading in MP4 anyway and be met with community outcry
232392014-01-222014-03-01briennestrohl2RightCFAR will get a grant from the American Mathematical Society to fund SPARC 2014.
232402014-01-222014-01-29briennestrohl4WrongElizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least ten women to make prediction book accounts.
232412014-01-222014-01-29briennestrohl4WrongElizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least twenty women to make prediction book accounts.
232682014-01-232015-01-01bobpage4RightClojure 1.6 will be released before 2015
232692014-01-232014-03-01waveman1RightJess will have written goals by end Feb 2014.
232702014-01-232014-03-01mitodoteira1RightI will still be actively using HabitRPG on March 1, 2014.
232712014-01-232017-12-31RandomThinker14WrongPrinceton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017
232722014-01-232014-06-01RandomThinker16Right2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool
232732014-01-232014-05-01RandomThinker1WrongNews will report stories of robotic submission of NCAA pool entries to Warren Buffett's 2014 pool.
232742014-01-232014-12-31RandomThinker1RightNetflix still won't have random shuffle playlists or per episode playlists by end of 2014
232772014-01-232014-06-01Michael Dickens1RightI will have an internship this summer.
232782014-01-232014-05-23ciil5RightI will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea
233112014-01-242014-12-01sdr14WrongHPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014
233122014-01-242014-01-25reesarose1Wrongmy mom will not remember to get dinosaur chicken nuggets
233132014-01-242014-06-01Rowan932RightI will still be actively using HabitRPG by June 2014
233202014-01-242014-08-01Rowan932WrongI will pass the exams for every module I take this semester
233222014-01-242015-01-01Rowan931WrongBy the end of the year, I will have reached a geohash point for the Aberystwyth graticule
233232014-01-242014-06-01Rowan931WrongBetween now and the end of May, I will miss fewer than ten lectures
233262014-01-242020-01-25adbge1RightMukhtarbay Otelbayev will not win a Millennium Prize for his work on the Navier-Stokes equations.
233272014-01-242016-01-01moore.thunder2WrongAdrian Fohr will succeed in his effort, 'to get %40 of Intro Microeconomics teachers to use his video blog as a teaching tool.'
233282014-01-242014-09-24bluebart3Right'Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' will continue for a second season.
233342014-01-252014-02-01vyctryx1RightEd will join PredictionBook.
233722014-01-262015-01-01fiftytwo1RightScott Alexander will join Tumblr
233942014-01-262015-01-01Mati5WrongMore Google glass will be sold in the first 80 days than iPads 1 were sold in the first 80 days (which is 3 millions).
233952014-01-262050-01-01Mati4I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050.
233962014-01-262014-04-03Mati1WrongSomeone will send my at least 10 USD or CAD on PayPal (mathieu.roy.37@gmail.com) before April 2nd 2014.
233972014-01-269999-12-31Mati1The Clock of the Long Now will show a 1 as its first digit.
233982014-01-262014-01-26tedks1WrongWe can find a table with two available outlets at Rao's.
233992014-01-262030-01-01Mati3An hyperloop will be in use before 2030.
234002014-01-262014-01-27Michael Dickens1RightI will have heard of at least one of the top 5 websites on this page: http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1w6ixc/what_is_the_best_website_that_nobody_knows_about/
234012014-01-262015-01-01Mati7WrongBitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014.
234282014-01-272014-02-04vasaka1RightI will live higher then 5th floor
234292014-01-272014-01-27vasaka1RightWill come home before 23
234302014-01-272014-02-04mimikria1Righthanoi flat will be at 5th floor
234312014-01-272014-01-28mimikria1Wrongi'll sell the table today
234322014-01-272015-01-01vasaka6Wrongbitcoin will cost more than $1500 by the end of year
234332014-01-272014-01-29mimikria1Rightnobody will call about bed till 29.01 :(
234342014-01-272014-02-02mimikria1Rightrishta will come
234682014-01-282014-01-29reesarose1Rightthe eval will take a while
234812014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens1RightNorth Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt.
234822014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens2RightChina's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt.
234832014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens7RightUS government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt.
234842014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens1RightEgypt's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt.
234852014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens1RightIsrael does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state.
234862014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens11RightObama will remain President of USA at end of 2014.
234872014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens5RightNo nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014.
234882014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens4WrongThere is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people.
234892014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens6WrongIn 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people.
234902014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens4RightSlate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014.
234912014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens4RightSlate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013.
234922014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens3Right2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey.
234932014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens10Right2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female.
234942014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens1RightAt least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014.
234952014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens4RightCFAR will continue operating in end of 2014.
234962014-01-282015-01-01Michael Dickens10RightMIRI will continue operating in end of 2014.
235222014-01-292014-02-01mimikria1WrongV of our things is <2.5m^3 and >2m^3
235272014-01-302014-02-01vasaka1WithdrawnVolume is less than 1.5 m/m^3
235282014-01-302014-02-01vasaka1RightVolume is less than 1.5 m^3
235292014-01-302014-09-01Michael Dickens2WrongI will intern at a financial firm this summer.
235392014-01-302014-02-03NikiTaylor1WrongI'll get the job
235462014-01-302050-01-01JosefK2UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars
235542014-01-302014-01-31reubensandwich1RightI will go to the grocery store today
235872014-01-312018-01-31adbge2WrongAmanda Knox will be found guilty by the Italian Supreme Court.
235882014-01-312015-01-01azax12WrongI will read 25 books in 2014.
235892014-01-312015-01-01azax12WrongI will read 30 books in 2014.
235902014-01-312015-01-01azax12WrongI will read 35 books in 2014.
235912014-01-312015-01-01azax12WrongI will read 50 books in 2014.
235922014-01-312015-01-01Mati1RightA portfolio with one third of each TWTR, CAS, and GE will do worst than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded).
235932014-01-312014-09-19lettergram24WrongScotland votes 'yes' for independence.
236102014-01-312015-01-01Xammer2RightI will read 120 books in 2014.
236202014-02-012015-07-01waveman1Right"Blade of Vengeance" will not move west of Penrith before mid 2015.
236212014-02-012016-12-31waveman5RightEliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016.
236292014-02-012014-03-01notsonewuser1RightNYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of February.
236302014-02-012014-02-28reesarose2WrongI'll be back to normal weight by March
236702014-02-022015-01-01jeredcaleb4Rightscientists won't have the same technology in "back to the future" in 2015
237362014-02-042014-02-23Vulture7RightSochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early)
237562014-02-052014-02-05Peter Hurford1RightThere will be a snow day at Mount Holyoke tomorrow.
237632014-02-052020-09-02Mati3The government of Quebec will start using an open source operating system (instead of Windows) during the mandate of the next government.
237642014-02-052015-02-01Mati2WrongAt least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2015.
237682014-02-052014-02-06Peter Hurford1WrongMount Holyoke will have a snow day tomorrow
237782014-02-062014-02-24mad2WrongRousey beats McMann by armbar in UFC170
237792014-02-062014-02-24mad1RightRousey defeats McMann in UFC170
237872014-02-062020-01-01Mati4WrongApple will sell smart glasses before 2020.
237882014-02-062016-01-01Mati2WrongGoogle will sell smart watches before 2016
237892014-02-062020-01-01Mati2RightThere will be (physical) Google stores before 2020.
237902014-02-062050-01-01Mati3In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050.
237912014-02-062019-01-01Mati1RightThere will have been more than 1500 CI Members at some point before 2019.
237922014-02-062015-01-01Mati2RightI will have been in Vancouver in 2014.
237932014-02-062015-01-01Mati1RightI will have visited the Cronics Institute in 2014.
237942014-02-062020-01-01Mati3WrongThere will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020.
237952014-02-062014-02-12Mati2WrongI will go see my grandparents this weekend.
237962014-02-062015-02-06Mati4WrongI will have a girlfriend at some point in the next 365 days.
238082014-02-072200-10-31Amélie_Roy1I will be cryonically frozen.
238092014-02-072014-02-07reubensandwich1RightI will leave here before 10.
238102014-02-082014-02-08reubensandwich2RightI will leave here by 11
238112014-02-082014-02-08Amélie_Roy1RightTomorrow I will eat breakfest before 9 a.m.
238202014-02-092042-01-01Mati3Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041.
238212014-02-092014-02-24Mati5WrongCanada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals)
238222014-02-092015-04-04lettergram9WrongElder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG
238272014-02-092014-02-10Benquo1RightAdina and Baaboo will have dinner with Maxine and me tonight.
238312014-02-102025-01-01ZLM35By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency.
238422014-02-112022-01-30ZLM2I will be alive on my 33rd birthday.
238462014-02-112015-01-30ZLM1I will figure out what being transgender means by my 26th birthday.
238472014-02-112019-01-30ZLM1I will be able to afford to sign up for cryonics by the time I'm 30.
238502014-02-112014-02-11ZLM1RightI will be able to easily slide an index finger between my wrist and my watch that I haven't worn since before I started my transition.
238512014-02-112015-01-01Mati2WrongHPMoR (up to 98): Hermione's body was stolen from a future version of Harry Potter.
238522014-02-112015-01-01Mati3WrongHPMoR (up to 98): At some point in the story, cryonics will be mentioned.
238532014-02-112015-01-01Mati3RightHPMoR (up to 98): Harry Potter will never use the killing curse (aka the Avada Kedavra Curse).
238542014-02-112015-01-01Mati4WrongHPMoR (up to ch. 98): Voldemort will die (permanently).
238552014-02-112015-01-01Mati4WrongHPMoR (up to ch. 98): At some point, Harry Potter will use magic to directly modify his brain (ex. Memory Charm, False memory charm, etc.).
238562014-02-112015-01-01Mati3WrongHPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for some drugs.
238572014-02-112015-01-01Mati4RightHPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter will respect his contract/promise from ch.47 with Draco.
238582014-02-112015-01-02Thelvyn3WrongHPMoR: Harry will try to take possession of the other deathly hallows
238592014-02-112015-01-02Thelvyn3RightHPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life.
238602014-02-112015-01-02Thelvyn2WrongHPMoR: Dumbledor will die with the feeling of betrayal.
238612014-02-112015-01-02Thelvyn2WrongHPMoR: Harry will finc the chamber of secrets.
238622014-02-112015-01-02Thelvyn2WrongHPMoR: Harry will find the room of requirement.
238632014-02-112015-01-02Thelvyn3RightHPMoR: Quirell has stolen the marauder's map from the weasley twins.
238712014-02-112015-01-01Mati1RightHPMoR: Voldemort will not die, nor become 'good'(ie. ally with Harry), but he will become (seemingly permanently) too weak to do evil (ex.: he will be in jail, or in suspended animation, etc.).
238722014-02-112016-01-01Mati1WrongHPMoR: Voldemort will kill Harry Potter and still do 'evil things' at the end of the story.
238732014-02-112015-01-01Mati2WrongHPMoR: Voldemort was good from the beginning.
238742014-02-112019-02-01Mati4RightGoogle will have had the biggest market capitalization in the USA at some point before February 2019.
238942014-02-132014-02-13reubensandwich1RightI will watching this movie by 9 (run time ~100min, imdb categorizes it as an action drama, rating between 7.7 and 8.1)
238952014-02-132014-02-13reubensandwich1WrongI will watch two or more video lectures tonight.
238962014-02-132015-01-01notsonewuser2WrongAt least half of my showers this December will be cold.
238972014-02-132014-02-14reesarose1Rightill get to see my boyfriend tomorrow
239012014-02-132014-02-13captiancreeper191RightI will not to do handstand by myself in gymnastics today
239152014-02-142016-01-01Mati1WrongHPMoR: Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for a computer.
239162014-02-142022-01-01Mati1I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022.
239172014-02-142020-01-01Mati1WrongI will start a PhD before 2020.
239182014-02-142070-01-01Mati1At least one of my grandparents will get cryonically frozen before 2070.
239192014-02-142015-01-01platypus422Before the end of 2014, at least ten more schools will adopt Meditation programs following the four at San Fransisco (http://tinyurl.com/sanmed)
239802014-02-152014-02-22Vulture5RightWithin one week, the LessWrong post "White Lies" will have 800 comments or more
239932014-02-162014-02-17reubensandwich1WrongI will go home before monday.
239942014-02-162014-02-16reubensandwich1WrongI will go home before noon tomorrow.
240162014-02-172014-02-17gwern1WrongMcCaleb will confirm Mtgox never actually sold _Magic_ cards.
240172014-02-172014-02-19reesarose1Rightmy stomach will stop hurting by tomorrow
240232014-02-182014-02-25booradleytron2RightI will see Tegan by Monday.
240242014-02-182014-02-19reubensandwich1WrongI will finish two chapters of reading today.
240302014-02-192014-02-20Michael Dickens1RightPizza-flavored Pringles contain milk ingredients.
240352014-02-202014-03-07lettergram2WrongI complete the Irish translation of HabitRPG within 2 weeks.
240402014-02-212014-04-16booradleytron1RightI will go on a date with Nashwa.
240562014-02-222014-02-22Benquo1RightThe unflavored Pedialyte will not taste discernibly worse than the flavored Pedialyte when I try it.
240572014-02-222014-07-14Tuxedage10RightMtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it.
240682014-02-232014-02-23ygert1WrongJacob Wilson wins Pro Tour: Born of the Gods.
240692014-02-232014-02-24booradleytron1WrongI will get my lab report submitted by 15:00 today.
240732014-02-242014-03-03gwern2WrongAgora marketplace will be severely hacked or taken down within a week.
240742014-02-242014-03-16Mati1RightI will not know the score of the hockey's final before I watch it.
240752014-02-242040-01-01Mati5Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040.
240782014-02-242014-02-25Michael Dickens1RightI will pee for at least 60 seconds.
240962014-02-252014-06-11Mati2WrongI will have finished the Lesswrong main sequences by June 11th 2014.
240972014-02-252014-02-25Michael Dickens1WrongOne of the three top comments on the thread I'm about to read will be "gluten free."
241022014-02-262014-10-14reesarose1RightWe'll make it to a year.
241082014-02-272014-02-28mad1WrongThe Beauty tribe will be the first tribe to vote a player off in the Survivor: Cagayan premiere
241092014-02-272016-02-27shokwave1WrongHP MoR: Dumbledore kills Snape
241112014-02-272015-12-31solipsist2Wrong_HP MoR_: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Nicholas Flamel
241122014-02-272015-12-31solipsist1Wrong_HP MoR_: The Remembrall went off because Harry forgot to study mind magic
241132014-02-272015-12-31solipsist1Wrong_HP MoR_: Lesath Lestrange will cast Avada Kedavra
241142014-02-272015-12-31solipsist1Wrong_HP MoR_: A Horcrux or Philosopher's stone was hidden Mount Etna
241152014-02-272014-03-02booradleytron1RightI will have dinner with Nashwa on Saturday.
241332014-02-282015-01-01chemotaxis1011WrongBrazil, 2014: The federal government will announce that an official, mandatory rationing of electricity use will be imposed on a system-wide basis.
241342014-02-282014-06-16Tuxedage2Withdrawna
241562014-02-282016-01-01simplicio4WrongState of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01.
241572014-03-012014-06-16mad2WrongSarah (the cop/MMA fighter on the Brawn tribe) will win Survivor: Cagayan
241582014-03-012014-06-16mad4WrongTasha Fox will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, accountant)
241592014-03-012014-06-16mad1WrongJ'Tia Taylor will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, nuclear engineer)
241602014-03-012014-06-16mad2WrongKass will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, attorney)
241612014-03-012014-06-16mad6WrongSpencer will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, "the cochran who doesn't suck")
241622014-03-012014-06-16mad1WrongAlexis will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, college student)
241632014-03-012014-06-16mad1WrongBrice will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, social worker)
241642014-03-012014-06-16mad2WrongJefra will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, pagent girl)
241652014-03-012014-06-16mad3WrongJeremiah will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, model)
241662014-03-012014-06-16mad2WrongLJ will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, bartender)
241672014-03-012014-06-16mad3WrongMorgan will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, ex-cheerleader)
241682014-03-012014-06-16mad2WrongCliff will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, ex-NBA)
241692014-03-012014-06-16mad1WrongLindsey will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, hairstylist)
241702014-03-012014-06-16mad4RightTony will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, cop)
241712014-03-012014-06-16mad3WrongTrish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor)
241722014-03-012014-06-16mad3WrongWoo will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, tae kwon do-er)
241762014-03-012014-04-01ygert11WrongEliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month.
241802014-03-022014-03-11booradleytron1WrongI will see Nashwa next weekend.
241812014-03-022014-03-23booradleytron1RightTeddy and I will go see Cashmere Cat.
241882014-03-022014-04-01jkadlubo1WrongHPMoR: I will finish translating 22nd chapter (into Polish) by the end of March
241962014-03-032014-12-31refnum29WrongWorld War 3 will start by december 2014
241972014-03-032014-06-15refnum4RightRussia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014
241982014-03-032017-01-01Porejide1RightAmazon Prime will cost $150 per year or less on Jan 1, 2017. Contingent upon no major changes in the Amazon prime system (e.g., no premium service, drones, or changes in shipping rates). Per convo w Chris S, who thinks Amazon is gonna start trying to actu
241992014-03-032015-03-03lettergram5RightRussia annexes Crimea this year.
242032014-03-042014-03-05reesarose1RightI'll go visiting on Wednesday
242192014-03-052014-03-06mad2RightI will not go to the music quiz on Thursday
242202014-03-052014-04-06mad1WrongI will not be feeling aftereffects from my IUD insertion in a month (cramps, bleeding)
242212014-03-052014-03-06mad1RightMy IUD will be inserted successfully (i.e. i won't be in so much pain i ask them to stop / the doctor won't screw it up somehow)
242222014-03-052014-04-09mad3RightAfter a month, my IUD insertion will have been deemed successful (i.e. it will not have fallen out or caused some sort of medical complication)
242232014-03-052016-02-13mad4WrongI will be attempting to get pregnant within a year of my IUD being removed (e.g. IUD removed > other form of BC > trying to conceive; or IUD removed > trying to conceive)
242242014-03-052018-03-25refnum1WithdrawnJapanese Misao Okawa, the world's oldest woman, will reach 120 years of age.
242672014-03-072014-03-08dgray1WrongWest Brom will win against Manchester United
242682014-03-072014-03-08dgray1WrongWest Brom will draw against Manchester United
242692014-03-072014-03-08dgray1RightWest Brom will lose to Manchester United
242782014-03-082024-01-01waveman1By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions.
242792014-03-082014-03-09reesarose1RightI'll start a new water withing a few hours
242882014-03-092014-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1Right90% turnout CI: [3000,5650]
242892014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongPG President
242902014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongKA President
242912014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1RightJK President
242922014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1RightPG Education
242932014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1WithdrawnKB Education
242942014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1RightCommunity: TP
242952014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongCommunity: PB
242962014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongCommunity: SA
242972014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongSport: TJ
242982014-03-092013-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1RightActivities: FC
242992014-03-092014-03-16reesarose1Rightsee ian this week
243052014-03-092014-10-16Mati2WrongI will be a finalist for the MA365 mission.
243102014-03-102014-04-01Peter Hurford2RightAnimal Charity Evaluators will publish their analysis on Joey and Xio's leafleting study by the end of March.
243132014-03-102014-03-11Michael Dickens1RightI will get to class before the people walking.
243252014-03-112014-03-11Nachlader1WrongArsenal will defeat Bayern Munich 3-1
243312014-03-122014-03-13entropy1WrongI will finish the CS pset by 3AM
243432014-03-132019-03-13Michael Dickens1The valonqar is Jaime Lannister.
243442014-03-132019-03-13Michael Dickens1The valonqar is Tyrion Lannister.
243632014-03-152016-01-01Mati1WrongMariloup Wolfe will lose her legal proceedings against Gab Roy.
243872014-03-172014-03-16reesarose1Rightclean room tomorrow
243912014-03-172014-05-22jkadlubo2RightCrimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 months.
243922014-03-172014-04-20jkadlubo2RightCrimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 month.
243932014-03-172014-04-07jkadlubo2RightCrimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 weeks.
243942014-03-172014-03-26jkadlubo2RightCrimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 week.
243982014-03-172015-01-01procran2WrongMH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by the start of 2015
243992014-03-172015-01-01procran4WrongMH370 confirmed as landed on a runway anywhere in the world.
244002014-03-172014-03-18reesarose1Rightmake cookies
244012014-03-172014-03-18reubensandwich1RightI will finish season five of breaking bad before I go to sleep tonight (4 episodes left at this time, I started watching yesterday morning)
244022014-03-172014-03-18reubensandwich1RightI will watch at least two episodes of breaking bad before going to sleep tonight.
244032014-03-182014-12-31kindrapring3WrongFive more states will legalize same sex marriage by the end of 2014
244042014-03-182015-02-01dgray1RightDavid Moyes will not be Manchester United manager at the end of January 2015
244262014-03-192015-01-01Jayson Virissimo9WrongThe NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015.
244432014-03-212014-06-01KnaveOfAllTrades1RightLitSoc gets affiliated.
244542014-03-222014-03-23reubensandwich1WrongI will watch one of my three video lectures tonight.
244552014-03-222014-03-23reubensandwich1WrongI will complete at least three more pomodoro cycles tonight.
244562014-03-232014-09-01aarongertler1WithdrawnI will have made 10 predictions on this website before September 1st, 2014
244572014-03-232014-09-01aarongertler1RightI will have made 10 predictions relating to events in my own life by September 1st, 2014.
244582014-03-232014-03-29reesarose1Rightgo somewhere
244592014-03-232099-03-24znode1WithdrawnTEST
244722014-03-242014-04-16mad1WrongRichard Walsh will compete in the finale fight for TUF: Nations (Welterweight)
244792014-03-252014-03-25Michael Dickens1WrongThis thread (http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/2173oq/what_movie_has_the_best_opening_scene/) will have "Up" as one of the top five answers.
245082014-03-282018-03-27aarongertler2RightAs of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider "effective altruism" to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense
245092014-03-282014-04-08Mati3RightThe PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections.
246262014-04-072015-10-25gwern3Withdrawn9fd811e61b18aa0228a6da4610bbd4de96f69f0e1dd77eeb68d182862f925780
246562014-04-102050-01-01lavalamp4The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050.
247182014-04-152019-04-15Michael Dickens1RightLittlefinger was (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding.
247342014-04-162014-05-01from30041WrongI will do between 60 and 80 pomodoros in April of 2014
247362014-04-162014-05-01from30041WrongI will continue to drink an espresso a day by the end of April.
247372014-04-162014-05-20from30041RightI will be able to pack everything for China into one backpack.
247382014-04-162014-05-01from30041WithdrawnI will sleep between 280-340 hours in April.
247392014-04-162014-04-18from30041WrongI will do 8-12 pomodoros on April 16.
247402014-04-162014-04-17from30041RightI will waste less than 60 minutes on April 16.
247412014-04-162014-04-16from30041RightI will wake up at 7am April 16.
247422014-04-162014-04-17from30041Right424 HW #7 will take 4 or fewer pomodoros
247462014-04-162014-10-16from30043WrongWhen I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% fewer problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober
247472014-04-162014-10-16from30041WrongWhen I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve the same number of problems (\pm10%) under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober
247482014-04-162014-10-16from30042RightI will not do the alhohol/math experiments
247972014-04-202014-08-21briennestrohl2RightGiven that Brienne was free of social anxiety on May 20 2014, she will be free of social anxiety on August 20 2014 as well.
247982014-04-202014-08-20briennestrohl1RightBrienne will be free of social anxiety in 4 months of this posting.
247992014-04-212015-01-01Jayson Virissimo2RightI will get accepted to App Academy before 2015.
248022014-04-212014-06-05JoshuaZ4RightA Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur.
248032014-04-212019-04-21gwern16Wrong"better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life" --Hontas Farmer
248132014-04-232015-01-01mad1WithdrawnThe next time both me and my boyfriend submit fantasy picks on UFC.com, he will end up with a higher score than me for that round.
248142014-04-232014-04-23Ham Nox1WrongI will look at my phone right after getting up and it will be between 5 and 6.
248262014-04-242014-05-31Ham Nox3RightI will still have making a prediction a day as a Daily in HabitRPG through May 31, 2014
248272014-04-242015-04-24Ham Nox2WithdrawnProvided I am still using HabitRPG or another reminder system in a year from now, I will have making a prediction a day as an explicit daily checklist item.
248522014-04-262014-08-15bibliophile221B4RightI will still have making a prediction a day as one of my dailies through the middle of August.
248632014-04-272014-05-28waveman1RightThe economist formerly known as 'The Blade of Vengeance" will read in full "The Crash Course" by end of 27 May 2014
248682014-04-272014-04-28Ham Nox1RightOne of my 2 friends will be wearing jeans when I go to meet them.
248802014-04-282014-05-31Ham Nox1RightAt least 3 people (not including myself) will be signed up for my "I'm always right" challenge by the end of May
248812014-04-282014-05-31Ham Nox1Right15+ people will be signed up for my Prediction challenge(s) by the end of May
248822014-04-282035-01-01Mati8Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.
248832014-04-282035-01-01Mati5Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.
248842014-04-282035-01-01Mati7LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.
249082014-04-302014-04-29Ham Nox1RightFriend's girlfriend will be at house when I get there
249092014-04-302014-04-29Ham Nox1WrongWill run into friend on their way to work
249102014-04-302014-08-15dgray1RightVan Gaal to be next Manchester United manager
249212014-04-302015-04-30gwern1RightNicholas Wade will still be employed by the _New York Times_ in a year.
249242014-04-302014-06-30dusk2RightBrayden accepts a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014
249302014-05-012014-05-01Ham Nox1RightRotten tomato score for Ender's game is between 12 and 98%
249412014-05-012014-07-01Patrick Brinich-Langlois15RightOver 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/
249422014-05-012014-07-01Patrick Brinich-Langlois14WrongMeat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/
249432014-05-012014-05-01mad1WrongSpencer will be voted out on this episode of Survivor: Cagayan
249512014-05-022015-01-01etarletons1WrongI will publicly record at least one prediction per month, at least until the end of 2014.
249522014-05-022014-05-03etarletons1RightTomorrow I will be asked/invited to do something outside of the house that is not grocery shopping.
249912014-05-052014-08-16Ham Nox1RightMy family does not get the creek house
250012014-05-052014-05-19avipacker7RightOklahoma City Thunder will win their 2nd round series against the Los Angeles Clippers (2014).
250022014-05-052014-05-19avipacker10RightIndiana Pacers will win their 2nd round series against the Washington Wizards (2014).
250032014-05-052014-05-19avipacker8RightThe Miami Heat will win their 2nd round series against the Brooklyn Nets (2014).
250042014-05-052014-05-20avipacker8RightThe San Antonio Spurs will win their 2nd round series against the Portland Trailblazers.
250052014-05-052014-05-15avipacker4WrongThe Boston Bruins will win their 2nd round series against the Montreal Canadiens (2014).
250062014-05-052014-05-16avipacker4RightThe Chicago Blackhawks will win their 2nd round series against the Minnesota Wild (2014).
250072014-05-052034-05-01JoshuaZ3By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014.
250142014-05-062014-05-18Ham Nox3Wrongmy sister will trip down the aisle at her wedding
250152014-05-062014-05-18Ham Nox1Wrongone of the bridesmaids/men at my sister's wedding will faint
250282014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1WrongHiroki Kuroda pitches at least 8 innings against the Angels.
250292014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1WrongHiroki Kuroda pitches less than 6 innings against the Angels.
250302014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1RightDave Robertson pitches tonight.
250312014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1RightThe Yankees score at least 1 run tonight (5/6/2014)
250322014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1RightThe Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 180 points in Game 1.
250332014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1WrongThe Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 220 points in Game 1.
250342014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1RightThe Blackhawks and Wild combine to score fewer than 7 goals.
250352014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1WrongThe Blackhawks and Wild go into overtime in Game 3.
250362014-05-062014-05-07avipacker1WrongClayton Kershaw gives up 4 ER or more (5/6/2014)
250372014-05-062014-05-07cobalt1WrongI will get a haircut today.
250512014-05-072014-05-08avipacker3WrongAll TPS reports are delivered by 3 PM Thursday.
250572014-05-072014-05-08avipacker2RightOKC beats LA Clippers in Game 2.
250602014-05-082014-05-09avipacker6RightPenguins win Game 4 vs Rangers.
250612014-05-082014-05-09avipacker1RightYankees will score more than 3 runs.
250622014-05-082014-05-09avipacker4RightVidal Nuno will pitch at least 5 innings.
250632014-05-082014-05-09avipacker1RightYankees hit a home run (5/7)
250642014-05-082014-05-08avipacker1RightYankees score in 1st inning.
250652014-05-082014-05-08avipacker2RightYankees score more than 2 runs in the 1st inning.
250722014-05-082014-06-01etarletons1RightI will have learned "a new thing" about my food problem by the end of May, as determined by an impartial judge when I explain how the month has gone.
251262014-05-122016-06-30nyabhingi1WrongThe new Berlin (Germany) airport will be operational until June 2016.
251672014-05-142014-05-17Pablo Stafforini1RightWayne Hsiung will refuse to bet against the claim that attitudes to in vitro meat will change after such meat becomes commercially available.
252402014-05-172020-01-01asdf1RightPredictionBook exists on 01-01-2020 OR you will have some other way to access this prediction or other predictions made thus far.
252452014-05-172014-07-01cobalt2RightI will get an A in health for the year.
252792014-05-192016-01-01player_035WrongBy the end of 2015, at least one service will offer genome sequencing for less than $100.
252802014-05-192014-06-20danne1WithdrawnMom and dad will not be going to the reunion.
253012014-05-202019-01-01roshni1Uniform civil code bill passed in India before 2019 general elections.
253372014-05-222014-05-26rebellionkid2WrongLabour wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections
253382014-05-222014-05-26rebellionkid3WrongConservatives win most votes in the UK European Parliament Elections
253392014-05-222014-05-26rebellionkid1WrongLib Dem wipeout in the UK European Parliament elections
253402014-05-222014-05-27rebellionkid1RightLess than 33% of seats in the new European Parliament will be taken by parties who are part of officially eurosceptic groups.
253412014-05-222014-09-19rebellionkid10RightScotland will vote NO on independence.
253422014-05-222020-05-07rebellionkid2RightThere will be an in-out referendum on the EU in the next parliament.
253432014-05-222020-05-07rebellionkid4RightConditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT.
253442014-05-222015-05-07rebellionkid3RightThe next UK general election will be held on 7 May 2015
253552014-05-232014-06-22azax12RightI will not get into college off a waitlist.
253772014-05-242019-07-16BiasedCalibration2RightHouse Stark (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series
253782014-05-242019-07-16BiasedCalibration3WrongWhite Walkers to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series
253792014-05-242019-07-16BiasedCalibration2WrongHouse Lannister (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series
253802014-05-242019-07-16BiasedCalibration3WrongHouse Baratheon (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series
253812014-05-242019-07-16BiasedCalibration4WrongHouse Greyjoy (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series
253822014-05-242019-07-16BiasedCalibration5WrongKingdom of Westeros to be dissolved by the end of the TV-series (No house rules more than 4 regions)
253832014-05-242019-07-16BiasedCalibration5WrongOther to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series
253922014-05-252014-06-01torekp1WrongThe continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have < 3.4% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%).
253932014-05-252014-06-01torekp1RightThe continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have <= 5.1% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%); i.e. within 1.5 times the original finding for uniform distribution.
253942014-05-252014-05-26cobalt1RightLaura will come over today
253972014-05-262015-01-01rebellionkid3WrongOn Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine.
253982014-05-262015-01-01rebellionkid6WrongOn Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto.
253992014-05-262015-05-07rebellionkid5RightEd Miliband will lead the Labour party to the next general election.
254082014-05-262015-12-31solipsist5Wrong_HP MOR_: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione
254232014-05-282015-01-01wraith1Homestuck will update by the end of this year.
254242014-05-282014-06-07wraith1RightThe USA's labour force participation rate will not increase in May.
254332014-05-282014-05-29alecbrooks1RightThe Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal in 24 hours.
254362014-05-292015-05-17TheEconomistofVengeance3WrongI will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, running a time of less than 2 hours.
254372014-05-292015-05-17TheEconomistofVengeance2RightI will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, completing the race before the cut-off time.
254382014-05-292014-07-06Matt2WithdrawnMy PredictionBook score will be higher than the current disappointing 1.09 in one month
254392014-05-292014-07-06Matt3WithdrawnMy PredictionBook score will be higher than the then current site average in one month
255142014-05-302014-05-30isaacjw1RightI will get Bastion today.
255262014-06-012014-09-23notsonewuser1WrongNYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from *now* until the fall equinox.
255462014-06-032017-01-01kjaques2WrongDr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share then hold those shares and sell on Dec 31, 2016 you will show a loss.
255542014-06-042014-06-11Neznans1RightAt least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel with an article titled using a bad pun regarding TRS and the weather.
255552014-06-042014-06-11Neznans1WrongPops: "Someone will die on the concert" (The Rolling Stones Tel-Aviv 2014 concert)
255722014-06-062015-05-07rebellionkid3RightNick Clegg will remain in the cabinet until the next general election.
255732014-06-062015-05-10rebellionkid2RightThe government following the next UK election will not be a formal coalition.
255762014-06-072014-06-08cobalt1RightI will go to confessional tomorrow.
255802014-06-072014-06-06etarletons1WrongA randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant is married.
255812014-06-072014-06-14cobalt1RightI will want to go back to confessional.
255822014-06-072016-06-07influnza3Skype translator will be a huge success
255852014-06-072014-06-08Peter Hurford1WrongPeter will eat dinner with his parents tonight.
255862014-06-072014-06-07etarletons1WrongA randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has written a complete work of fiction.
255942014-06-082014-06-08notsonewuser1WrongMy program will work as I expect it to.
255952014-06-082014-06-08notsonewuser1RightMy program will work as I expect it to *this* time.
255962014-06-082014-06-09etarletons1RightA randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant can remember another randomly chosen participant's name.
255972014-06-082014-06-22cobalt1RightMy ia remediation is successful on the first try.
256162014-06-092014-06-08etarletons1RightA randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has bare feet at 6:40PM.
256342014-06-112014-01-01abdullahmarzouk1Wrong3d printers in houses
256562014-06-122014-06-13aarongertler1WrongThe title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word "Ghost" or "Ghosts"
256572014-06-122014-06-13aarongertler1WrongThe title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word "Ghost" or "Ghosts" (part 3)
256582014-06-122014-06-13aarongertler1WrongThe title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word "Ghost" or "Ghosts"
256592014-06-122015-06-12aarongertler1RightAt least one company in the 2014 YEI fellowship will raise $1 million within the next year.
256602014-06-122019-06-12aarongertler3WrongFive years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more.
256612014-06-122014-07-07glennonymous1WrongI will get a job offer from the company I interviewed at Monday
256802014-06-142014-12-14jbeshir1WrongI will still be consuming a near-tasteless source of calories at least once every three days six months after starting trying the Shangri-La Diet.
256812014-06-142014-12-14jbeshir2WrongI will lose at least 18lbs in the six months after starting the Shangri-La Diet, and maintain the diet for that duration, defined as taking at least 100kcal of near-tasteless calories on at least an average of four days each week.
257802014-06-242015-01-01rebellionkid4WrongRussia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year.
257812014-06-242033-04-01rebellionkid4"Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools" - Art Carden
257862014-06-252020-01-01rebellionkid5WrongIraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020
258252014-06-272016-06-27Ham Nox2WrongA close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years
258262014-06-272019-06-27Ham Nox3RightMy step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now.
258562014-06-302014-06-30mavant1Withdrawnsomething
258572014-06-302014-06-30mavant1WithdrawnThis prediction will successfully post to predictionbook.com
258582014-06-302014-06-30mavant1WrongThis prediction will not post successfully.
258812014-07-022016-01-01clemux3WrongFormer French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of 2015, for the affair he has been indicted today.
259462014-07-082014-07-14cdf123451WrongBrazil will win the 2014 world cup
259472014-07-082014-08-01cdf123453WrongA wsop bracket winner makes the November 9.
260032014-07-122014-07-14bobpage1RightI will get my wanikani review queue down to 0 any time before July 14 2014 11am Pacific
260122014-07-122030-01-01Jayson Virissimo3Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman.
260212014-07-132015-01-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongThe Kingdom of North Sudan will be officially recognized by the African Union before 2015.
260222014-07-142014-07-16Matt1WrongI'll get RCJ their numbers before close of business Wednesday.
260342014-07-142014-07-14Ixiel1RightIt is not going to rain tonight
260352014-07-142014-07-14Ixiel1WrongJosh will be on time
261312014-07-172015-01-01dgray1RightI will weigh at least 140 pounds by the end of 2014
262102014-07-192015-01-01Ham Nox6WrongPrice of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600
262112014-07-192014-07-27Ham Nox2WrongAlberto Contador to win the Tour de France 2014
262122014-07-192014-10-10Ham Nox24WrongVladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize
262132014-07-192014-10-10Ham Nox11WrongEdward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize
262142014-07-192015-01-01Ham Nox3WrongA discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014.
262152014-07-192015-01-01Ham Nox2WrongWe will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness.
262442014-07-202014-08-29azax11RightI will get one of my top two choices of freshman writing seminar.
262452014-07-202014-08-29azax11RightI will get one of my top three choices of freshman writing seminar.
262462014-07-202014-08-29azax11RightI will get one of my top four choices of freshman writing seminar.
262472014-07-202015-07-20azax11WithdrawnIf I am accepted into a college via transfer, I will transfer from Cornell.
263772014-07-252016-01-01blubble3WrongUse of marijuana for recreation will be legalized in some/all states of Australia by 2016.
263812014-07-252014-07-25blubble1WrongCure will win this match (judged from the 7:30 mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYhoC_5p-to
263972014-07-262012-01-01blubble1RightJaedong (zerg) will win this match (judged from 13:00): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl5VXt7q9co
264232014-07-272014-08-02Ham Nox1WrongI get an interview from WHS in the coming week (until 2nd)
264592014-07-302014-07-31Peter Hurford1Wrong30 Jul Block B will take 130min to complete +/- 10min
264602014-07-302014-07-31Peter Hurford1Right30 Jul Block C will take 90min to complete +/-10min
264702014-07-312015-07-02sigmaleph1Right[Pact web serial] Blake will not retake his position as Thorburn heir
266042014-08-012015-05-01spicedpiano1RightI will be awarded the NSF GRFP this year.
266712014-08-022014-11-02spacemammoth9WrongEbola will be tamed in 3 months
266722014-08-022014-11-02spacemammoth1RightiWatch will not be called iWatch.
266732014-08-022014-09-02spacemammoth3RightI'll find this site useful and keep using even one month later.
266952014-08-022015-08-02spacemammoth2WrongI'll be addicted to this site even after 1 year.
266962014-08-022014-08-09spacemammoth1WrongI'll discover something useful in this site within one week.
266972014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1WrongI keep entering my prediction until 1 hour later.
266982014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1WrongMy headache will be gone in one hour
266992014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1RightI'll decide to take shower before I go to bed because I smells.
267002014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1RightI'll be eating supper in one hour
267012014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1WrongSome one call me before I go to sleep
267022014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1RightMy friend will Skype me within 2 hours.
267032014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1WrongSomeone will thank me tonight.
267042014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1RightI'll turn on TV tonight
267052014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1WrongI'll turn on radio tonight
267122014-08-022019-08-02spacemammoth7WrongMicrosoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows.
267132014-08-022014-08-02spacemammoth1WrongMy friends friend from Taiwan is actually not coming to Tokyo today...
267142014-08-022015-01-01spacemammoth1Apple is going to discontinue iPod classic this year
267152014-08-022017-08-02spacemammoth4WrongApple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years
268162014-08-032014-08-03spacemammoth1WrongI'll be cooking tonight.
268172014-08-032014-08-03spacemammoth1WrongGradation will be animated at the end of the day.
268332014-08-032014-08-03spacemammoth1WrongI'll go out today.
268342014-08-032014-08-03spacemammoth1WrongI'll implement Lorenz system on iOS in before 22:00.
268352014-08-032014-08-17spacemammoth1WrongI'm going to have my hair cut short in 2 weeks.
268362014-08-032014-08-03spacemammoth1WrongI'll do 100 push ups today
268372014-08-032014-08-10spacemammoth1RightI'll not be listening to Nico and vine's song "Am I wrong" next week
268382014-08-032014-08-06spacemammoth1RightI'll not be googling who is "Bjorkiest" person in 3 days.
268392014-08-032014-08-06spacemammoth1RightI'll be stop downloading TV shows because it is distracting in 3 days.
268402014-08-032015-08-03spacemammoth1I'll be programming for Android OS within a year
268482014-08-032014-08-10spacemammoth1WrongI'll be watching TV dramas everyday even after 1 week
268492014-08-032014-08-10spacemammoth1WrongI'll not be reading news site like Yahoo for 1 week
268502014-08-032014-08-05spacemammoth2WrongI'll be getting something important out of watching Breaking Bad for my programming project in 2 days
269292014-08-042014-08-04spacemammoth1Wronggo to bed before 22:30
279242014-08-092014-08-16spacemammoth2WrongPredictionBook is distracting. That's why! Someone will agree with me in 7 days.
279252014-08-092014-08-10spacemammoth1RightI have shoulder pain. It'll be gone in 1 day.
279262014-08-092014-08-11spacemammoth1RightI'm in bad mood. It'll be better in 2 days.
280112014-08-102015-12-31rationalnoodles2WrongRussia will close its borders by 2016
280122014-08-102014-08-11spacemammoth1WrongI have back pain. It'll be gone in 1 day.
280422014-08-112016-11-10Ham Nox6WrongHillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016.
280652014-08-112014-09-02dgray1WrongManchester United will sign exactly1 player before September 2nd.
280662014-08-112014-09-02dgray1WrongManchester United will sign 3 players before Sept 2nd
280672014-08-112014-09-02dgray1WrongManchester United will not sign any players before September 2nd.
280682014-08-112014-09-15dgray1WrongI will submit exactly 1 paper by Sept 15
285012014-08-132014-08-20Ixiel1RightMy wife's debit card is in the bedroom
285292014-08-132064-08-13spacemammoth2There will be no war in 50 years.
285302014-08-132114-08-13spacemammoth4There will be no religion in 100 years.
285312014-08-132214-08-13spacemammoth1There will be no border in 200 years.
285322014-08-132024-08-13spacemammoth2First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years.
285332014-08-132024-08-13spacemammoth1First artificial intelligent sex worker in 10 years
285342014-08-132021-08-13spacemammoth2First virtual tourism in 7 years.
285352014-08-132019-08-13spacemammoth4RightiPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years
287562014-08-142014-12-31minilodon12WrongEbola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year
287572014-08-142014-09-30minilodon2RightIt has snowed at least once in Calgary by September 30
289342014-08-152014-08-18spacemammoth1WrongI'll finish Computer graphics course (20 hours course) in 3 days.
294532014-08-182014-08-25rebellionkid1WrongAssange leaves the embassy within a week
294542014-08-182015-08-18rebellionkid11WrongAssange leaves the embassy within a year.
294552014-08-182014-08-18rebellionkid1Right"Her insan doğar, yaşar, ve ölür." is meaningful and true.
295232014-08-192014-09-05Calien2RightI will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time.
295272014-08-192014-12-31Calien19WrongEliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014.
295282014-08-192014-12-31Calien1WrongBy the end of this year, I will know 50 Canberrans who read LessWrong or attend meetups regularly. (I will have personally spoken to and remember names and faces)
298662014-08-202015-05-31aarongertler1WrongThe Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations)
298672014-08-202015-05-15aarongertler1RightYale Effective Altruists will have at least ten active, non-graduating members at the end of this school year.
298702014-08-212014-11-29Grognor1WrongBruce Willis will have more than 5 minutes of screentime in Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
303452014-08-232014-11-23Ham Nox1WrongWill be moved to Bay Area in the next 3 months
303462014-08-232014-08-23Ham Nox1RightOut of 10 asked at the reunion, 2-3 people knowing my name without prompting.
313602014-08-292015-01-01rationalnoodles1RightRUB/USD will reach 39/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015.
313612014-08-292014-08-31rationalnoodles1RightI will come to Moscow LW Meetup on 2014-08-31.
321112014-09-022014-09-02PlacidPlatypus1RightTSM wins at least one game in the 2014 Summer NA LCS Championship match.
329812014-09-082030-01-01rebellionkid3A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030.
329822014-09-082050-01-01rebellionkid3A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050
333282014-09-102015-01-01rebellionkid6RightCameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year.
333292014-09-102015-01-01rebellionkid3WrongAlex Sammond still the leader of the SNP at the end of the year
337742014-09-132014-09-14Ham Nox1RightI make at least $20 bucks profit at the swamp meet tomorrow.
339312014-09-142014-09-19scav5WrongThe scottish referendum vote will be 50-60% yes
339322014-09-142014-09-19scav7WrongThe scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes
340952014-09-152014-09-27Lina5RightBellroy and Trike will move from their West Melbourne office to the new Fitzroy office on 26th Sept.
340962014-09-152014-09-18Mike1RightDecommissioning of extract will be completed without issue.
340972014-09-152015-03-31Mike8WrongAustralia will see its first domestic, large scale "terror" attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign.
340982014-09-152014-09-16Mike1RightI finish all five items on my "To Do Today" list tomorrow.
340992014-09-152015-04-30Mike1WrongI will have no mortgage by the end of April 2015.
341002014-09-152014-09-30Mike1WrongMy son will have his first tooth by the end of September.
341012014-09-152014-10-19Mike4WrongA fight breaks out at my 20 year high school reunion over something that happened 20 years ago.
341022014-09-152015-01-31Mike3WrongI start polyphasic sleeping successfully.
341802014-09-162014-01-30MattG1WithdrawnThe SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th and January 30th, 2014
341812014-09-162015-01-30MattG1RightThe SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th 2014 and January 30th, 2015
341822014-09-162015-01-01MattG1RightThe SMR Email list will be somewhere between 300 and 1000 subscribers on January 1st 2015
355452014-09-212014-11-01tylercurtis3WrongI will have reached a streak of at least 14 on my HabitRPG daily for making predictions on predictionbook at least once by end of October.
358102014-09-222014-09-29Calien1RightI will have finished the second season of Orphan Black by next Monday.
363822014-09-252014-09-26KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI would have to rejig my unit choices
363832014-09-252014-09-29KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI wash the towel by the midnight starting Sunday 28th
363842014-09-252014-09-25KnaveOfAllTrades1RightThe current or most recent season of The Simpsons was season 25
363852014-09-252014-09-25KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThe Princess Bride has 90+% approval from Top Critics on Rotten Tomatoes
363862014-09-252014-09-25KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThe population of Nigeria is over 400 million (Wikipedia)
363872014-09-252014-11-14KnaveOfAllTrades1RightSecond appeal reverses decision
363882014-09-252014-09-25KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongGlobal GDP PPP is over $100 trillion (Wikipedia)
363892014-09-252014-09-25KnaveOfAllTrades1RightGlobal population is over 7.1 billion (Wikipedia)
363902014-09-252014-09-25KnaveOfAllTrades1RightBarack Obama is over fifty years old
364122014-09-252016-09-25rebellionkid2In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative.
364892014-09-262015-05-07rebellionkid1RightAt least one Tory MP defects to UKIP by the end of this parliament.
365172014-09-262014-10-20PlacidPlatypus3Right[LoL Worlds] Finals won by Korean team.
366232014-09-272015-05-07rebellionkid1WrongAny Lab>UKIP defection this parliament
366242014-09-272016-09-27rebellionkid3RightIf SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage.
373852014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3141RightThe number of episodes in the OC is either 92 or 96
373862014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142WrongThe number of undergraduates at the University of Bath given on the Wikipedia page is less than of equal to 8850
373872014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142RightThe number milligrams of sodium in a bottle of water is less than or equal to 12.5mg
373882014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142RightGeoff Smith was born on 1st October 1954 or earlier
373892014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142RightTommy Hilfiger (the company) was established in 1977 or later
373902014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3141RightThe population of Bath as listed on Wikipedia is 85,000 or higher
373912014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142WrongThe greatest height given on Wikipedia for Ben Nevis in the infobox (conditional on such a height being given) is 4500 feet or more
373922014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142WrongThe greatest speed of a barracuda that is given on its WIkipedia page (conditional on being given) is 73MPH or higher
373932014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142RightThe number of Google results for 'Monopoly' (conditional on a unique figure being given) is 4,000,000 or more
373942014-10-022014-10-02qwerty3142WrongThe highest land area given in the infobox for Russia is 325,000,000(km^2) or more
374082014-10-022014-10-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThe number of episodes of The O.C. is 92 or 96, including specials
380232014-10-072014-10-10Mike2RightI will have at least one pint of beer with Dan on Friday afternoon.
380372014-10-072014-10-07qwerty3142RightAvril Lavigne is colloquially 30 years old
380382014-10-072014-10-11qwerty3142RightConditional on us going. Ross plays Senorita i.e. he does it or nobody else pick it
380392014-10-072014-10-11qwerty3142WrongConditional on us going, someone (possibly including Ross) picks Mr Brightside
380402014-10-072014-10-07qwerty3142RightThe longest figure given on the Wikipedia info-box, conditional on it being given, for the length of the M25 is longer that 116 miles
380412014-10-072014-10-07qwerty3142WrongThe number of undergraduates at Bath Spa, conditional on such a figure being given and being unique, is 6500 or greater
380422014-10-072014-10-07qwerty3142RightThe metric spaces lecturer says a sentence containing 'I claim' during the two hour lecture today
385142014-10-112015-12-31mad1WrongI will receive a promotion or get a new job by 2016
388452014-10-122015-05-07rebellionkid1WrongUKIP wins at least 9 MPs at the next election
390262014-10-142016-01-01codexaenir81RightThe U.S. budget deficit will be less than 3% of GDP for fiscal year 2015.
391012014-10-142014-10-20KnaveOfAllTrades1RightTwo or more people that I do not bring turn up to the first Bath LW meetup. (Fixed point prediction.)
391022014-10-142014-11-01KnaveOfAllTrades2Wrongbeta_b by or on Halloween
397122014-10-182025-01-01KnaveOfAllTrades2Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m.
397132014-10-182025-01-01KnaveOfAllTrades1Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m.
397142014-10-182025-01-01KnaveOfAllTrades1Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m.
398202014-10-192014-12-31from30046WrongVirgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014.
398212014-10-192016-12-31from30041WrongVirgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2016.
398322014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongThe density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre
398332014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4RightBath #3: An even number of elements have been found/synthesised
398342014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades5WrongThe highest figure give on the Wikipedia article in the infobox for the length of the Nile is less than or equal to 3100.9km
398352014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBath #5: Virginia Woolf's lifespan is less than or equal to 45 years going by calendar
398362014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4RightBath #6: The number of letters in the Cyrillic alphabet is less than or equal to 30
398372014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBath #7: The Young's modulus of steel given in the infobox on Wikipedia is less than or equal to 140GPa
398382014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4RightBath #8: Elizabeth II was born in 1926
398392014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBath #9: The earliest edit on the Wikipedia article for sudoku was on or before 1st January 2005
398402014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBath #10: The UK infant mortality rate is less than or equal to 1.36 per 1000 according to the CIA World Factbook
398412014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBath #11: The battery amount given on Wikipedia in the infobox for the Samsung Galaxy S3 is greater or equal to 3700mAh
398422014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4RightBath #12: Eliezer born in 1979
398432014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBath #13: An 'English' mile, to four decimal places, is 1.6034km (Wikipedia)
398442014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4RightBath #14: Wikipedia: Electron discovered by or on 31st December 1923
398452014-10-192014-10-19KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBath #15: The endowment given on Wikipedia for the endowment of the University of Bath is greater than or equal to £317.2 million.
399992014-10-202015-01-16NathanMcKnight1Most Senate Dems outperform RCP average by more than 1%.
400002014-10-202024-10-20NathanMcKnight2Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications.
400012014-10-202114-10-21NathanMcKnight2Proof of concept for axion-photon conversion as a basis for energy generation demonstrated experimentally, as published in at least one refereed physics journal.
400022014-10-203014-10-20NathanMcKnight2If the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity before the confirmation of axions, the data collected during the event will provide confirmation.
400882014-10-212015-10-21qznc16RightLess than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year
404022014-10-242015-01-24Michael Dickens2WrongIn the EA survey, at least 50% of non-student respondents will self-report that they donated at least 10% of their income in 2013.
406322014-10-262015-12-24roshith2WrongRoshith will be back in college in 2015.
406702014-10-262014-12-25from30041WrongI will get an A in Spectral Theory this semester
406712014-10-262015-02-28from30044WrongI will be able to obtain HRT by the end of Feb 2015.
406722014-10-262015-07-31from30042WrongI will learn Esperanto to a conversational level by July 31st 2015.
406732014-10-262014-10-26from30041WrongI will talk to my parents and sister on skype/hangouts/whatever for less than 1 hour today.
406742014-10-262014-10-26from30043WrongI will do >10 pomos today.
406752014-10-262014-10-26from30045WrongI will do less than 5 pomos today.
406762014-10-262014-10-26from30043RightI will do 5-10 pomos (inclusive) today.
408892014-10-282014-12-01KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongMeet up with Megan by or on 30th November.
408902014-10-282014-12-01KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongNumber close RT by or on November 30th
408912014-10-282014-12-01KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongNumber close LS by or on November 30th
408922014-10-282014-12-01KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongNumber close Ellie2 by or on November 30th
408932014-10-282014-11-10KnaveOfAllTrades1Conditional on it being the next action and sent by the end of Saturday 1st November, Megan replies to my text by or on Sunday 9th November.
408942014-10-282015-01-01KnaveOfAllTrades1RightMy 100% category (and someone else's) dropped, and this was because of a reversed old prediction or site change, rather than a high-confidence prediction of mine being newly judged since Thursday 23rd November 2014
408952014-10-282014-11-02qwerty3141WithdrawnConditional on me taking action, I will meet up with Becky by 2/11 in a non-church setting
408962014-10-282014-12-01qwerty3141WrongNumber Close BOTH by 1st December
408972014-10-282014-12-01qwerty3141RightNumber Close FMK by 1st December
408982014-10-282015-03-14qwerty3141RightIn first semester exams for my third year, I will get 70% or higher
409212014-10-282014-11-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will learn to lockpick by November
409222014-10-282015-01-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will learn to pick locks by January
409232014-10-282015-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will learn to pick locks by next year
409242014-10-282015-06-16sweeneyrod2RightI will pass my grade 8
409252014-10-282015-06-16sweeneyrod2WrongI will get a merit or above at grade 8
409262014-10-282015-06-16sweeneyrod2WrongI will get a distinction at grade 8
409272014-10-282015-01-16sweeneyrod1RightWe won't get a dog by January
409282014-10-282014-12-26sweeneyrod1RightWe will go busking by Christmas
409292014-10-282015-01-16sweeneyrod2WrongThere will be a death from Ebola in the UK by January
409302014-10-282015-03-16sweeneyrod6RightThere will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March
409312014-10-282015-03-16sweeneyrod4RightThere will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March
409322014-10-282015-03-16sweeneyrod4RightThere will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March
409332014-10-282015-10-28msevrens3RightThe r0 of the 2014 Ebola outbreak will be under 2
409342014-10-282079-10-28msevrens2By 2080 most manufacturing and processing of materials will be done in space
409352014-10-282114-10-28msevrens2Over the next 100 years, California will slowly turn into a desert
409362014-10-282015-07-28msevrens3Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period
409372014-10-282050-10-28msevrens4By 2050 the majority of music will be "generated" and not recorded. This will include vocals.
410282014-10-292030-01-16sweeneyrod2There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030
410292014-10-292014-10-31KnaveOfAllTrades1Wrong50 or more candidates turn up to the first session of tryouts today
410302014-10-292025-01-16sweeneyrod5There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025
410312014-10-292020-01-16sweeneyrod6WrongThere will be a manned mission to Mars by 2020
410322014-10-292017-01-16sweeneyrod12WrongThere will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017
412182014-10-302014-10-30sweeneyrod1RightThe queen is older than 80
412192014-10-302014-10-30sweeneyrod1RightThe queen is older than 83
412202014-10-302014-10-30sweeneyrod1WrongThe Queen is older than 88
414292014-10-312014-10-31sweeneyrod1WrongElon Musk is from the North-East, California, or outside of the US
414302014-10-312014-10-31sweeneyrod1WrongElon Musk is from California or New York
415992014-11-012015-05-16sweeneyrod4WrongThe next government will be a coalition
416002014-11-012015-01-16sweeneyrod1WrongI'll finish the first chapter of TAOCP by January
416622014-11-022015-01-16sweeneyrod1WrongIf I do the first stage, I will get through to the next stage of the BIO
416632014-11-022014-11-07sweeneyrod1RightI will still be alive on Friday
416752014-11-022014-11-02BathLW1RightG.R.R. Martin is 54 colloquial years old or older
416872014-11-022014-11-02BathLW1RightChina's nuclear weapon stockpile (preferably in the table) on the WP stockpiles article is <= 400
416882014-11-022015-10-11qwerty3141RightI will achieve an NC by or on 09/11
416892014-11-022014-12-01qwerty3141WrongDate by or on 30/11
416902014-11-022014-11-07qwerty3141WrongSimon Harris mentions the Tommy Hilfiger jumper comment when he reports on the feedback questionnaires
416912014-11-022014-11-02BathLW1WrongPluto's mass as given in the Wikipedia infobox (assuming a unique such figure is given) is less than or equal to 5*10^12kg
419262014-11-032014-11-03qwerty3141RightThe Thames is longer than 200 miles long as given in the Wikipedia info-box provided that a unique such figure is given
420002014-11-032015-03-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will read Winning Ways by March
420012014-11-032015-03-16sweeneyrod1RightI will make another sling by March
421072014-11-042014-11-04qwerty3141WrongTony Dooley will start the break during the Metric Spaces lecture before 12:00 working by the time on my watch
421292014-11-042017-01-16sweeneyrod4RightNothing will pass the Turing Test before 2017
421302014-11-042020-01-16sweeneyrod8WrongWe will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020
424912014-11-062014-11-06KnaveOfAllTrades2RightIt's KA on the bus.
424922014-11-062014-11-06KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongTD did exam q's in the most recent problems class.
424932014-11-062015-03-16sweeneyrod1RightI will get at least a Bronze on the UKMT
424952014-11-062015-02-15sweeneyrod1WrongI will get at least a Silver in the UKMT
424962014-11-062015-02-15sweeneyrod1WrongI will get a Gold in the UKMT
424972014-11-062015-02-15sweeneyrod1WrongI will get through to the next stage of the UMKT
424982014-11-062014-11-06qwerty3141RightFMK will be at the CU meeting tonight
424992014-11-062014-11-06qwerty3142RightI see BOTH or FMK on level 3 of the library prior to 18:00 today, using the time given on my watch
425002014-11-062014-11-06qwerty3141RightAccording to the values given in the Wikipedia infobox, Houston has a larger population than Austin
425012014-11-062014-11-06qwerty3141RightI will complete sheet 6 of number theory by 15:00
425152014-11-062015-06-16sweeneyrod1RightEither Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham or Southhampton will win the premier league
425162014-11-062015-06-16sweeneyrod1RightEither Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Arsenal or Liverpool will win the premier league
425172014-11-062015-06-16sweeneyrod1RightEither Chelsea, Man U, Man City or Arsenal will win the premier league
425182014-11-062015-06-16sweeneyrod1RightEither Chelsea, Man U or Man City n will win the premier league
425192014-11-062015-06-16sweeneyrod1RightChelsea will win the premier league
426762014-11-072014-11-08sweeneyrod1RightThe sun will rise tomorrow
426772014-11-072014-11-08qwerty3141WrongAW will be at karaoke tonight
426782014-11-072014-12-02qwerty3141WrongDate with FMK by or on 1st December 2014
426792014-11-072014-12-01qwerty3141WrongNC probability girl by or on 1st December 2014
426802014-11-072014-11-08qwerty3142WrongConditional on myself, PC or M not doing it, Mr Brightside will be played in 'the karaoke room' whilst I am present
426812014-11-072014-12-01qwerty3141WrongI will get a number directly from a street approach by or on 1st December
427712014-11-082015-03-16sweeneyrod2RightIt will snow before March
427722014-11-082015-10-16sweeneyrod9RightI won't convert to Christianity within the next year
430592014-11-092014-12-25sweeneyrod1WrongI will go to Parkrun on Christmas
430602014-11-092014-12-25sweeneyrod1WrongI will finish the sequences by December
430612014-11-092015-01-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will be able to do a free-standing handstand for more than 15 seconds by January
430962014-11-092014-11-10KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongTB at karaoke
430972014-11-092014-12-01KnaveOfAllTrades1Right2nd date with I
430982014-11-092014-11-11KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI go to GE tomorrow
430992014-11-092014-11-11KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI get one or more more bits/questions of the stats coursework done tomorrow.
431002014-11-092014-11-11KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongNC tomorrow
432022014-11-102015-02-15sweeneyrod1RightI will achieve a new PB by February
432032014-11-102015-10-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will achieve a new PB by October
433702014-11-112016-06-16xrisque3RightJournalers of OkC will still exist, and will have no less than 90 members.
433712014-11-112016-06-16xrisque2If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single.
433852014-11-112014-11-16sweeneyrod1RightChelsea will beat or draw against West Brom
435522014-11-122014-11-12sweeneyrod1RightDallas is one of the 20th largest cities in the US
435532014-11-122014-11-12sweeneyrod1WrongShanghai is the 3rd largest city in China (including Hong Kong)
437452014-11-132014-11-14sweeneyrod1WrongJ will come to the WWRY rehearsal
437462014-11-132014-11-14sweeneyrod1RightG will come to the WWRY rehearsal
437672014-11-132016-12-16sweeneyrod1RightThe next president won't be a Democrat
437682014-11-132015-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongJ's brother will join JB
439032014-11-142014-11-14qwerty3142RightFMK says that she isn't interested
439042014-11-142014-11-14qwerty3141RightBob Dole finished 2nd to Bill Clinton in the election for which Bill Clinton was reelected.
439052014-11-142015-01-16sweeneyrod1WrongMy Italian deck will have over 1000 cards by January
439062014-11-142015-03-16sweeneyrod1WrongMore than 3 RDGers will watch WWRY (not including me, or N)
439072014-11-142015-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongJH will get a baritone by September
443542014-11-162015-01-16sweeneyrod2RightI will upgrade my computer by January
445082014-11-172014-11-17Calien1RightMy event time is 2pm tomorrow.
445092014-11-172014-11-17Calien1WrongMy event time is 12pm tomorrow.
445102014-11-172014-11-17Calien1WrongMy event time is 1pm tomorrow.
445112014-11-172014-11-17Calien1WrongMy event time is 11am tomorrow.
446172014-11-172014-11-19sweeneyrod1WrongWe will come above 5th in the UKMT
446182014-11-172014-11-19sweeneyrod1WrongWe will win the UKMT
446192014-11-172015-05-01So8res2WithdrawnNate will have "expanding the MIRI researcher team" as one of his first priorities for at least one month in the first four months of 2015
448352014-11-182014-11-25sweeneyrod1WrongThere will be more than 3 people at JB
448362014-11-182014-12-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will be level 11 in Italian by December
450672014-11-192015-01-16sweeneyrod1WrongOne of my predictions will be the top prediction on 16th of January
450682014-11-192015-01-01sweeneyrod4RightThere will be less than 10 wagers on this prediction by the New Year
451792014-11-202015-03-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will buy a Oneplus
451802014-11-202015-10-16sweeneyrod1RightI will get a new computer by October
456072014-11-222014-11-22KnaveOfAllTrades1RightHe was serious about t's too much.
456082014-11-222014-11-22KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI was going to think closer to FMK over branch by 23:59 of that day than at 07:00 on that day, conditional on finding out what happened on that day during that day OR he claims C OR otherwise yields on C
456092014-11-222014-11-22KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongCP Friends w/ RyW (FB)
456102014-11-222014-11-22KnaveOfAllTrades1RightProjecter board wipeable
456112014-11-222014-11-22KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongRoy at karaoke
456122014-11-222014-11-22KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI go to GE
457572014-11-232014-11-30sweeneyrod1RightArsenal will beat or draw against West Brom
457582014-11-232014-11-30sweeneyrod1RightLiverpool will beat/draw against Stoke
457592014-11-232014-11-30sweeneyrod2RightAston Villa will beat/draw against Burnley
457602014-11-232014-11-30sweeneyrod1RightSwansea will beat/draw against Crystal Palace
457612014-11-232014-11-30sweeneyrod1RightMan U will beat/draw against Hull
459702014-11-242014-11-24qwerty3141RightRosanna will not say a word to me by or on 10:35
460102014-11-242015-08-16sweeneyrod1RightI will have over 100 complete predictions by August
460112014-11-242016-01-16sweeneyrod19WrongI will have over 300 predictions by 2016
460122014-11-242014-12-01sweeneyrod1RightI will have begun using Evernote by next week
460132014-11-242014-11-24sweeneyrod1RightI still have no replies from the press
460142014-11-242015-01-16sweeneyrod3RightThere will be no single event causing the death of over 1 billion people (hereafter defined as an "apocalypse") before January
462682014-11-252015-01-16sweeneyrod1RightI will have over 10 due predictions on 16th January
462692014-11-252015-01-16sweeneyrod1RightI will have over 20 predictions to be judged by 16th January
462702014-11-252014-11-26sweeneyrod1WrongI will finish CA today
465202014-11-262016-06-02from30042The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016
465212014-11-262015-12-16from30044Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015
465222014-11-262015-10-31from30044WrongJusten and I will dress up as Sirius and the Joker (Nolanverse) for Halloween.
465232014-11-262015-01-10from30046RightThis wager will have an average estimate of 25-75% on Jan 10th, 2015.
466712014-11-272015-02-14adri2RightA will get 12 in Top.
466722014-11-272015-02-01adri2WrongA will get no less than 1 instructorship in blok 3 or blok 4.
466732014-11-272014-12-01adri1RightA will submit application to DIKU instructorship before deadline.
466742014-11-272016-01-01adri2Right"Little sister" will go on a mission before 2016.
466752014-11-272015-11-27adri2WrongA and M will be regularly using PredictionBook one year from now.
466762014-11-272014-12-04adri1WrongM will make a prediction on H's MI grade.
466772014-11-272014-12-04adri1WithdrawnM will refuse to make sensitive predictions about close individuals.
468132014-11-282014-11-29sweeneyrod1WrongIf I go to PR tomorrow, I will get a new PB.
471482014-11-292014-11-29sweeneyrod1RightI have already received my PR time
473482014-11-302014-12-03sweeneyrod1RightIf I receive it, Trinity's reply will be positive
475082014-12-012014-12-07sweeneyrod1RightLiverpool will beat/draw against Sunderland.
475662014-12-022014-12-07sweeneyrod1RightQPR will beat/draw against Burnley
477472014-12-032015-07-02reallyyesreally4WrongFewer than 5% of the predictions on this site are about something genuinely meaningful to either the poster or anyone around them.
479442014-12-032016-01-16sweeneyrod2RightBelow 10% of my predictions will be meta-predictions by 2016
482512014-12-042014-12-06sweeneyrod1WrongWe will play T C tomorrow
482522014-12-042045-01-16JoshuaZ3A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045.
482532014-12-042014-12-22JoshuaZ2WrongI will have my students' final grades in by December 21st.
482542014-12-042045-01-16JoshuaZ2Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045.
482552014-12-042016-11-10JoshuaZ3WrongDemocrats to gain control of the US Senate in the 2016 elections.
489962014-12-062015-05-07rebellionkid5WrongLib Dems win Cambridge at next election.
491622014-12-062035-01-01Mati2The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035.
495232014-12-072014-12-25JoshuaZ1RightAt least 40% of my Calc I class will get at least one bonus question.
498992014-12-082015-03-16sweeneyrod1WrongHPMOR - Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga is Hat & Cloak
499002014-12-082015-06-16sweeneyrod2WrongHPMOR - Hat & Cloak is Snape
499012014-12-082015-03-16sweeneyrod3RightHPMOR - Hat & Cloak is one of Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldermort, Future Harry, Lucius Malfoy, Nicholas Flamel, Baba Yaga, Severus Snape, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew, Gilderoy Lockhart, Grindelwald, Narcissa Malfoy, one of Hogwarts' founders, MadEye Moody,
499022014-12-082014-12-14qwerty3141WrongCorinna and I will watch the OC together prior to 14/12/14
499482014-12-092015-03-01adri1RightA will go to France before March 2015.
501012014-12-092014-12-14sweeneyrod2RightSunderland will beat/draw against West Ham
502832014-12-102015-12-10JoshuaZ3WrongPart or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year.
504922014-12-102014-12-14sweeneyrod1WrongSouthampton will beat/draw against Burnley
507902014-12-122014-12-14sweeneyrod1RightSunderland will beat/draw against West Ham
508502014-12-122014-12-16adri1RightA will get no less than 90% on Top WA3.
510072014-12-132016-01-16sweeneyrod6WrongThe FTSE 100 will be over 9000 on January 16th 2016
510862014-12-142014-12-16sweeneyrod1WrongR will be at Monday's rehearsal
512112014-12-152024-01-01JoshuaZ1Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024
512942014-12-152014-12-21sweeneyrod1RightWest Ham will beat/draw against Leicester City
515932014-12-162014-12-18sweeneyrod1WrongI will score above 70 on the BIO
517202014-12-172050-01-01dvolk3Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050
518352014-12-172014-12-19sweeneyrod1WrongI will get through to the next round of the BIO
518362014-12-172014-12-18sweeneyrod1RightEveryone will turn next up to the next rehearsal
525602014-12-192035-01-01JoshuaZ1At least one substantial improvement on the finite group isomorphism problem will occur before 2035.
525612014-12-192035-01-01JoshuaZ1A general factoring algorithm better than the number field sieve by 2035
525622014-12-192045-01-01JoshuaZ1u(1/2)<=.15 by 2045. Here mean u(1/2) in the Lindelof hypothesis.
529882014-12-212014-12-27sweeneyrod1RightMan City will beat/draw against West Brom
529892014-12-212014-12-27sweeneyrod1WrongSunderland will beat/draw against Hull City
529902014-12-212014-12-27sweeneyrod1WrongEverton will beat/draw against Stoke City
529912014-12-212014-12-27sweeneyrod1RightTottenham will beat/draw against Leicester City
529922014-12-212014-12-27sweeneyrod1RightLiverpool will beat/draw against Burnley
533802014-12-232015-01-01brightcloud2RightI will make my return flight from San Francisco.
537892014-12-242014-12-26sweeneyrod1RightThunder will beat/draw against Spurs
538082014-12-242014-12-26sweeneyrod1RightBulls will beat/draw against Lakers
541092014-12-252014-12-25Adam Zerner1WrongCollege Inside View will succeed
541102014-12-252015-02-01bobpage3WrongI will finish Antichamber before 2015-02-01
541112014-12-252015-01-01adri1RightA will not further modify the deadline rules of BM.
541122014-12-252015-01-01adri1WrongA will complete BM goal without derail under rules dated 2014-12-26.
546282014-12-272020-01-01JoshuaZ2WrongA mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error).
547062014-12-272014-12-29sweeneyrod1RightChelsea will beat/draw against Southampton
547082014-12-272014-12-29sweeneyrod2RightMan City will beat/draw against Burnley
547092014-12-272014-12-29sweeneyrod1RightSunderland will beat/draw against Aston Villa
547102014-12-272014-12-29sweeneyrod1RightPistons will beat/draw against Cavaliers
547112014-12-272014-12-29sweeneyrod1RightSpurs will beat/draw against Rockets
549342014-12-282014-12-31sweeneyrod1WrongI will have completed the PC by Wednesday
552132014-12-292015-01-02sweeneyrod1RightMan City will beat/draw against Sunderland
553072014-12-292015-01-29Adam Zerner1WrongI get the Khan Academy Internship
553082014-12-292015-01-29Adam Zerner3WrongI get the job at Google
562262015-01-022016-01-01waveman1WrongI have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. By EOY 2015.
562272015-01-022015-04-01waveman2WrongI will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end 1Q 2015 thus completing second year physics.
562282015-01-022016-01-01waveman2WrongI will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by end 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms texts that I choose.
562292015-01-022015-07-01waveman2WrongI will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2Q 2015. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book.
564642015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongOn Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10
564652015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen1WrongOn Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.50
565022015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongBefore Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 12 blog posts.
565032015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongBefore Dec 31, 2015 I will post more than 25 blog posts.
565042015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen1RightBefore Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 5 blog posts.
565052015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen1WrongBefore Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 12 blog posts.
565062015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen1WrongBefore Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post more than 25 blog posts.
565072015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen3RightAt the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity.
565082015-01-032015-12-31EloiseRosen6RightAt the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity.
566082015-01-032016-01-01roreiy4WrongEd Miliband will be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016
566092015-01-032015-05-07doxievee8WrongNo party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election
566102015-01-032015-05-07roreiy7RightThe Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE.
566112015-01-032016-05-07roreiy1WithdrawnThe Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE.
566122015-01-032015-05-14doxievee6WrongThe next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be Ed Miliband
566132015-01-032016-01-01doxievee1WithdrawnBy midnight on New Year's Eve 2016, I will have fewer than 1000 followers on Twitter
566142015-01-032015-05-07roreiy5WrongThe Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE.
566152015-01-032017-01-03doxievee1WrongThe next leader of the Democratic Unionist Party will be Edwin Poots
566162015-01-032016-01-01roreiy3WrongBy midnight on New Year's Eve, I will have fewer than 1000 followers on Twitter
566172015-01-032016-01-01roreiy7RightBarack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016.
566192015-01-032016-01-01roreiy18WrongQueen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016
566202015-01-032016-01-01roreiy18RightVladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016
566212015-01-032015-05-07roreiy5RightUkip will have five or less seats following the UK general election.
566222015-01-032016-01-01roreiy2RightI will write >10 blog posts in 2015.
566732015-01-032015-02-01notsonewuser1WithdrawnOn this year's Less Wrong survey, at least two people will have the same public and private keys (not considering capitalization).
568142015-01-042015-06-16sweeneyrod5RightThe SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election
570192015-01-052015-01-07sweeneyrod1WrongBucks will beat/draw against Suns
573932015-01-072015-07-01Calien1WrongI will have officially switched to PhB by next semester.
574932015-01-072015-01-11sweeneyrod2RightMan City will beat/draw against Everton
574942015-01-072016-01-01Ben Doherty1Withdrawn"In 2015, notable (choose your definition) publications will declare their intentions to go fully distributed"
574952015-01-072016-01-01Ben Doherty1Wrong"Twitter will hire a bunch of “anchors” to retweet celebrities and politicians..."
576042015-01-072015-08-16moridinamael3WrongOil price (Brent crude) will be above $100/bbl in August
576902015-01-072016-01-01adri2WrongA's bike will get stolen or lost in 2015.
576912015-01-072015-09-01adri1WithdrawnA will get no les than 1 instructorship in B3/4.
576922015-01-072015-09-01adri1WrongA will have set up stuk before September 2015.
576932015-01-072015-07-16adri2WrongM will take Geom1 reexam.
576942015-01-072016-01-01adri1RightA will go skiing in 2015.
581022015-01-092015-01-11sweeneyrod1RightClippers will beat/draw against Mavericks
581462015-01-102015-01-11dgray1RightBurnley win/draw against QPR
581942015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen4RightI will be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year.
581952015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongI will be a vegan at the end of the year.
581962015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongSam will be a vegetarian or a pescetarian at the end of the year.
581972015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongSam will be a vegan at the end of the year.
581982015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2RightI will end the year still living in the Cambridge area.
582002015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongI will end the year living in a Rationalist house.
582012015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen1RightI will still work for my current company at the end of 2015.
582022015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen1RightSam will still be involved with the morality lab at the end of 2015.
582032015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen1RightIn 2015 I will read at least 15 books.
582042015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen1RightWe will sell the car before Dec 31, 2015.
582052015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongIn 2015 I will have a baby.
582062015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2RightWumpus will still be alive at the end of 2015.
582072015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongDuring 2015 I will run at least 1 marathon.
582082015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongDuring 2015 I will lose my wallet.
582092015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen1RightSam’s computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015.
582102015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen2WrongMy computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015.
582112015-01-102015-09-05EloiseRosen2RightSam will attend the 2015 Burning Man.
582122015-01-102015-09-05EloiseRosen2RightI will attend the 2015 Burning Man.
582132015-01-102016-01-01EloiseRosen2WrongWe will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US.
582142015-01-102016-01-01EloiseRosen13RightIn 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people.
582152015-01-102015-12-31EloiseRosen20RightNorth Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015.
583172015-01-112015-01-11dgray1RightArsenal win/draw against Stoke
584192015-01-112015-01-13sweeneyrod2WrongNets will beat/draw against Rockets
584202015-01-112015-01-13sweeneyrod2RightPistons will beat/draw against Raptors
584212015-01-112015-01-13sweeneyrod2WrongBulls will beat/draw against Magic
585892015-01-122015-01-12qwerty3142WrongIt was Lana Del Rey in BK
585922015-01-122015-01-18KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongI go into Po's this Friday
588042015-01-132015-01-14sweeneyrod2WrongSpurs will beat/draw against Wizards
588372015-01-132015-04-04Rory O’Kane1WrongThe Rust programming language will reach version 1.0.0 by April 4, 2015 (the first six-week cycle after the scheduled beta1).
588382015-01-132015-01-13benwr1RightI will be alive at the end of this class period.
588692015-01-132015-01-14qwerty3141WrongMA30237 exam will be cancelled
589122015-01-142015-01-14qwerty3142WrongIpswich will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup
589132015-01-142015-01-14qwerty3141RightBradford will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup
589142015-01-142015-01-15sweeneyrod2RightSpurs will beat/draw against Hornets
589152015-01-142015-01-15sweeneyrod2WrongRockets will beat/draw against Magic
589162015-01-142015-01-14qwerty3141WrongGT's CMT is 8+
591522015-01-152015-05-08RogerE6WrongThe UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015
591532015-01-152015-01-17sweeneyrod1WrongWizards will beat/draw against Nets
592112015-01-152016-10-01woodse4WrongMitt Romney will run for president again in 2016.
592122015-01-152015-05-20woodse1I will maintain my GPA above a 3.6 overall average this semester.
592152015-01-162015-05-01woodse4WrongThat my wife will give birth to a baby girl
592162015-01-162015-02-02EloiseRosen2RightC's contract will be extended past Jan 30.
592172015-01-162017-01-01woodse2Wrongrecreational use of marijuana will be legalized in arizona by 2017
592182015-01-162017-01-01woodse2Rightby 2017 at least 8 states will have legalized recreational use of marijuana.
592192015-01-162015-01-16woodse1WrongA god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon.
592202015-01-162015-01-20EloiseRosen1RightI will see Ben S on Monday.
593202015-01-162015-01-17sweeneyrod1RightPistons will beat/draw against Pacers
594022015-01-162015-01-20EloiseRosen1WrongPJ will contact me for billing info.
594032015-01-162015-03-01EloiseRosen1WrongWe'll end up paying extra for going over views limit.
596542015-01-172015-01-17qwerty3141WrongDavid Cameron was born in 1967 or later
596552015-01-172015-02-16KnaveOfAllTrades2RightI will think I've received some notable bit of 'positive' evidence that FMK is a bad idea by Monday 16th February. (FPP)
596562015-01-172015-02-16KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI will endorse the proposition that there was an R-'caused' F thing that felt like it was probably an Incident/Not Good between now and 06:00 Monday 16th February. (FPP)
596572015-01-172015-01-24qwerty3141WrongHW until I go to Po's
596582015-01-172015-01-24KnaveOfAllTrades2RightWill go past admission at Po's on 23rd/24th night
596622015-01-172015-06-01KnaveOfAllTrades2RightFC other than x before 07:00 Monday 1st June 2015
596632015-01-172015-06-01KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongSome set of scales plausibly says my mass is <=70kg at any time by 05:00 on Monday 1st June 2015
596642015-01-172015-02-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI finish Computability & Logic or decide to move on to a later text from the list by 06:00 on Monday 2nd February
596652015-01-172015-02-04KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI will be in London before my first lecture of Semester 2
597232015-01-182015-03-01EloiseRosen1RightI get a response from E, and the response is favorable.
597242015-01-182015-06-01EloiseRosen1WrongE hires me.
598142015-01-182015-01-19sweeneyrod1RightPelicans will beat/draw against Raptors
600972015-01-192015-01-20qwerty3142WrongCBAB has a recollection of eating something in BK
600982015-01-192015-02-19qwerty3142RightNC whilst still 20
600992015-01-192015-02-19qwerty3141WrongKC whilst still 20
601002015-01-192015-02-19qwerty3142WrongFC whilst still 20
601012015-01-192015-01-19qwerty3141WrongHW by 11:55 today
601022015-01-192015-01-20EloiseRosen1WrongB will contact me without prompting.
601522015-01-192015-01-21sweeneyrod2RightSpurs will beat/draw against Nuggets
603022015-01-202015-01-20qwerty3141RightRochdale is further north than Chesterfield
603242015-01-202017-01-01JoshuaZ1WrongThe lack of magical twins in the School in Magic series will end up being a plot point in the next book.
603252015-01-202019-01-01JoshuaZ8WrongRussia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018.
603262015-01-202015-01-22sweeneyrod2WrongHeat will beat/draw against Hornets
603272015-01-202015-01-21EloiseRosen1RightThere will be free avocados today.
603282015-01-202015-01-21EloiseRosen1WrongSomeone got the sink fixed.
603292015-01-202015-01-21EloiseRosen1RightThe sushi I like will be stocked today.
603302015-01-202015-01-20qwerty3141RightSR made PR about B
603312015-01-202015-01-20qwerty3141WrongHW by 23:55
603322015-01-202015-03-16Ruthie3I will find a job before March 15th 2015
605882015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1RightVacation predictions: I will get sick from the food or water.
605892015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1WrongVacation predictions: Sam will get sick from the food or water.
605902015-01-212015-02-02EloiseRosen1WrongVacation predictions: We will miss our connecting flight.
605912015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1RightVacation predictions: Sam will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once.
605922015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1WrongVacation predictions: I will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once.
605932015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1RightVacation predictions: I will see at least one band playing Merengue music.
605942015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1WrongVacation predictions: The cat will die while we're gone.
605952015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1WrongVacation predictions: Something will get stolen.
605962015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1RightVacation predictions: The power will go down at least once.
605972015-01-212015-02-08EloiseRosen1WrongVacation predictions: I will forget to pack something important.
607432015-01-222015-01-24sweeneyrod1WrongHornets will beat/draw against Cavaliers
607652015-01-222015-01-23qwerty3141WrongM KC N
607672015-01-222015-01-23qwerty3141WrongM FC N
608812015-01-222015-02-03KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI go to a west country LW meetup before my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two
608822015-01-222015-01-25KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongA or P at P with retroactive >=90% probability
608832015-01-222015-01-25KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongS or G at P as confirmed by speaking
608842015-01-222015-01-22KnaveOfAllTrades2RightOne new-to-me chapter of Bleach out
608852015-01-222015-01-22KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongZero new-to-me chapters of Bleach out
608862015-01-222015-01-22KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongTwo new-to-me chapters of Bleach out
608872015-01-222015-02-01KnaveOfAllTrades2RightHPMoR: Chapter 103 posted by midnight ending January 28th 2015 Berkeley time
608882015-01-222015-02-17KnaveOfAllTrades2RightHPMoR: Chapter 104 posted by midnight ending February 15th Berkeley time.
608892015-01-222015-02-03KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI believe house/flat broadly sorted for next year by my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two
608902015-01-222015-01-26KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThat's All is in the book
608912015-01-222015-01-27KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongWill believe SG was at P with prob >= 90% after usual checks
608922015-01-222015-01-22KnaveOfAllTrades1RightConditional on credible source, David Belle >= 40 years old in common parlance
608932015-01-222015-01-22KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on credible source, JME inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance
608942015-01-222015-01-22KnaveOfAllTrades1RightConditional on credible source, Skepta inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance
611562015-01-242018-01-23kjaques2WrongDr. Bob says closing stock price of CPG - $37.50 or higher, 75% sure based on predictions of oil. I'm more than that sure just based on inflation and basic economic growth.
611572015-01-242018-01-23kjaques1WrongDr Bob predicts, based on oil industry, certainty of 75%, that BNE will be $50 or higher on the TSE
613732015-01-252015-03-01KnaveOfAllTrades2RightCBP sighted at fewest one lecture for at fewest four of my courses
613742015-01-252015-01-26qwerty3141WrongConditional on me getting a response from FMK, the response is positive in my eyes
613752015-01-252015-01-25KnaveOfAllTrades1RightHeart of Darkness in library
613762015-01-252016-07-21Faceh9WrongRand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season
614212015-01-252015-03-16claz2WrongHP MOR : the bargain between Voldemort and Lily Potter on the night of his demise is actually a magical ritual which will prevent Voldemort from killing harry
614222015-01-252015-03-16claz3HP MOR : The source of magic stores "souls" (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them
614282015-01-252015-01-27EloiseRosen1RightSomeone will leave early on Mon for snow-related reasons.
614292015-01-252015-01-28EloiseRosen1RightI'll work from home on Tues.
614302015-01-252015-02-01EloiseRosen1WrongJ will comment on status.
614312015-01-252015-01-26EloiseRosen2RightWhen I wake up tomorrow I will still have hands.
614322015-01-252015-01-31EloiseRosen1RightWe will meet about performance eval sometime this week.
616032015-01-262015-01-27sweeneyrod1WrongKnicks will beat/draw against Kings
616042015-01-262015-01-27sweeneyrod1RightThunder will beat/draw against Timberwolves
616052015-01-262015-01-27sweeneyrod1WrongMagic will beat/draw against Grizzlies
616062015-01-262015-01-27sweeneyrod1RightPelicans will beat/draw against 76ers
618762015-01-282015-01-28EloiseRosen1WrongJ will go to work tomorrow.
624462015-01-292021-01-02benwr7"People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)
624992015-01-292015-01-30EloiseRosen1WrongIt will work on Sam's computer.
627952015-01-302015-01-30qwerty3141WrongBOTH will have accepted my friend request by the end of the day
631612015-01-312015-05-08doxievee4WrongFollowing the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; however, it will be possible for two parties combined to hold a majority.
631622015-01-312015-05-08doxievee8RightFollowing the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons.
631632015-02-012015-04-01doxievee7RightIslamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory).
632162015-02-012016-01-01doxievee4RightThe four main supermarket chains of the United Kingdom (Tesco, Asda, Morrison's and Sainsbury's) will all be solvent by the end of 2015.
632172015-02-012015-05-08doxievee6WrongThe televised debates between party leaders proposed by the major broadcasters of the United Kingdom in the run-up to the 2015 general election will not happen.
633492015-02-012015-02-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI go to watch the Superbowl
637492015-02-022015-03-02Calien1WrongI will download 2-10 Android apps in the next month.
637502015-02-022015-03-02Calien1WrongI will download 3-6 Android apps in the next month.
637512015-02-022015-03-02Calien1WithdrawnAnother cup will get broken in the next month.
642002015-02-032015-02-08EloiseRosen1WrongWe will see Marcos again.
642012015-02-032015-02-04EloiseRosen1WrongSam will go out tonight.
653312015-02-072015-04-01sweeneyrod1RightI will overtake J in Duolingo points by the end of March.
653842015-02-072015-02-07KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongP guy added F FB
653852015-02-072015-02-07KnaveOfAllTrades2RightThat subreddit exists
653862015-02-072015-02-11KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongG joins in at swing on Tuesday 10th February 2015.
656342015-02-082015-02-10EloiseRosen1RightBefore 9am Monday there will be an email about someone working from home due to snow.
656352015-02-082015-02-20EloiseRosen1WrongI will have symptoms of Y between Feb 12 and Feb 19.
656382015-02-082015-02-10EloiseRosen1WrongTomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow, and I will receive a discount as a result.
656392015-02-082015-02-10EloiseRosen3RightMIT will be closed on Monday.
656592015-02-082015-06-16sweeneyrod1RightSomeone in FM does the M1 exam this year.
656902015-02-092036-01-01JoshuaZ5By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans.
656932015-02-092015-02-09Taymon2WrongWPI will announce a cancellation of classes due to weather before noon today.
658782015-02-092015-02-11EloiseRosen1RightMIT will be closed on Tuesday.
658852015-02-102015-04-01Capla1WithdrawnGiven that I do not contact her first (between now and then), Jacquelyn K. will not contact me before April 1st, 2015.
658862015-02-102015-02-12EloiseRosen2WrongMIT will be closed Wednesday.
658872015-02-102015-02-10EloiseRosen1RightBy 10am tomorrow I will no longer be locked out of openVPN.
660072015-02-102016-02-01rebellionkid4WrongThe standard unemployment rate will be below 5% by January 2016.
660082015-02-102016-02-10rebellionkid3U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year.
660092015-02-102020-01-01rebellionkid3RightLabor force participation rate will hit below 62% this decade.
662242015-02-112015-02-12EloiseRosen1RightP will be there before I arrive.
664852015-02-122015-04-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will get into the UNIQ summer school for Maths.
664862015-02-122015-02-22sweeneyrod1RightSunderland will beat/draw against West Brom
667042015-02-132015-03-26JoshuaZ10WrongIt will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold
668902015-02-152015-02-15EloiseRosen1Wrong>20 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow.
668912015-02-152015-02-15kuttypa1Moving ahead
669872015-02-162015-02-23azax11RightThe Emory REU will reject me.
670772015-02-162015-03-14Faceh9WrongHPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 - conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel.
670782015-02-162015-03-14Faceh5RightHPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions.
671822015-02-172015-03-01EloiseRosen3Wrong0 < Feb R =< 5k
671832015-02-172015-03-01EloiseRosen3Wrong5k < Feb R =< 10k
671842015-02-172015-03-01EloiseRosen3RightFeb R > 10k
672502015-02-172015-03-01EloiseRosen1RightT FB
672512015-02-172015-06-01rebellionkid5WrongOn 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party
676322015-02-202015-02-20KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongA serves F BK
676332015-02-202015-02-20KnaveOfAllTrades2RightBK does hot chocolate
676342015-02-202015-02-20KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongFMK confirms pre 5 weeks wrt dd
676352015-02-202015-02-20KnaveOfAllTrades3WrongIt's in that PS episode
676592015-02-212015-03-07linkhyrule513WrongHJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle.
681012015-02-232030-01-01Michael Dickens7RightBy 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US.
681752015-02-242015-02-26EloiseRosen1RightAt Wednesday's eye appointment it will be determined that I need a stronger prescription.
681762015-02-242015-05-02EloiseRosen1WrongI have at least 1 cavity.
681772015-02-242015-02-25EloiseRosen1RightSomeone will compliment my outfit tomorrow.
681812015-02-242015-04-01EloiseRosen1RightI will get sick sometime in March.
681822015-02-242015-02-26EloiseRosen1RightThe 11th floor faucet has been fixed.
684582015-02-252015-03-14jbeshir2RightHPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror.
684592015-02-252016-01-01Alex Willmer3WrongIn 2015 Go will become a supported development language for Android
684722015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongJasper Benincasa died at conventional age of 93 or more
684732015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1RightAn Academy Award was awarded for Let It Go
684742015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongIll Manors won a Mercury Prize (of some sort if applicable)
684752015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongProtein and carbs both give 2 kcal/g to nearest whole number in opening section of Wikipedia Food Energy article
684762015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongKano conventionally 30 years old or more
684772015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1RightNaruto ended at chapter 700 (as opposed to 500, 600, 800, etc.)
684782015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1RightKurt Geiger was born conventional 50 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1965).
684792015-02-262015-02-26KnaveOfAllTrades1RightKurt Geiger was born conventional 60 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1955).
685192015-02-262045-01-01Mati1The first full body transplantation of a human will have been successfully done before 2045.
688092015-02-282015-03-15jbeshir3WrongHPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary).
690192015-03-012017-03-01rebellionkid1RightCongress passes a substantial repeal of Obamacare in the next 5 years
690482015-03-022015-06-07TheEconomistofVengeance4WrongI will have completed the first draft of my novel by June 7, 2015, my 58th birthday.
690602015-03-022015-03-03dain3Wrong[HPMOR Ch. 114] Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story.
690612015-03-022015-03-03dain3Right[HPMOR, Ch. 114] The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration
690622015-03-022015-03-03dain3Wrong[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution involves time travel
690632015-03-022015-03-03dain4Wrong[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no "brute force" transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction)
695232015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThat FB notification is that
695242015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongTom Odell between 27 and 33 conventional years of age inclusive
695252015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightObama six foot or taller
695262015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThere's a dance sequence in the Savoy Ballroom in that Malcolm X film, conditional on that film existing as I think it does
695272015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongDavid Cameron has unambiguously brown eyes
695282015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1Gordon Brown has unambiguously brown eyes
695292015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightConditional on figure being given on UK website, 200 or less calories in medium Maccy D's fries
695302015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightBig Mac + medium fries + medium diet coke has <1000 kcal conditional on figure given on UK website
695342015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongStevie Wonder born in New York state
695352015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1Wrong(Abraham Lincoln born in then-Illinois) or (Abraham Lincoln born in place in now-Illinois)
695362015-03-052015-04-01KnaveOfAllTrades1RightA video is uploaded to /user/SenpaiKush which has upload date lying in March 2015
695372015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightThe swastika on Ichigo's original bankai is opposite-facing to the Nazi one, conditional on orientation not seeming obviously inconsistent when checking
695382015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightNeji swastika is left-facing
695392015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightAmaterasu, Susasnoo, Tsukuyomi siblings
695402015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightAs was on Songs in the Key of Life
695412015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightUp to capitalization, punctuation, and number of 'l's (letter 12 of 26) in 'fulfillingness', there is a track called "They Won't Go When I Go" on an album called "Fulfillingness' First Finale"
695422015-03-052015-09-01KnaveOfAllTrades4RightI will get my full deposit back from my current landlord
695432015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightNationalities associated with top ten IAAF-sanctioned human marathon performances as given on Wikipedia, conditional on this or similar being given, are all Kenya or Ethiopia
695442015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1RightUniversity was founded in or after 1960
695452015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI will test the appropriate n-rep maxima for all the Ice Cream exercises I can do this for at the gym by 11:00 (in about six hours)
695462015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBruce Lee died at conventional age 29, 30, or 31
695472015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBruce Lee died at conventional age thirty
695482015-03-052015-03-05KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBruce Lee died at conventional age thirty-one
702102015-03-062015-03-07KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI see S at P
704432015-03-072015-03-18Rigulel3WrongIsraeli Election: Zionist Union will get more votes than Likud
725492015-03-132015-03-14Capla3WrongThe attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people.
725502015-03-132015-06-01rebellionkid2WrongA party not in the government is whipped to back or abstain on the first Queens Speech of next parliament
728362015-03-142015-03-14Zebranky3WrongHPMOR Chapter 122 will have over 18,000 words.
742332015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongB-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters
742342015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades2RightR does 5th
742352015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongCJ or HM or JB at P
742362015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongIt was from that person
742372015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1RightNo Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke website
742382015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1RightNo Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as featured or main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke
742392015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongF accepts L Friend Request by the midnight ending Sunday, conditional on it being sent as claimed
742402015-03-172015-03-21KnaveOfAllTrades2RightHe doesn't take any of that lecture, conditional on eclipse roughly as described, as agreed by prediction setters
742412015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongOne or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P
742422015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongDMT read first 99 chapters of HPMoR or said they had caught it up
742432015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI'll catch that train
742442015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongMeet up with G on that day
742452015-03-172015-03-28KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI go to RDT birthday pre-drinks
742482015-03-172015-03-17KnaveOfAllTrades1Wrong'Today', I do gym and track stuff then my first BK of the day
765892015-03-212015-03-26Rowan931RightThe Crowfall kickstarter will reach its "Pack Animal For Everyone" stretch goal of 14,500 backers
772022015-03-222015-03-22qwerty3141WrongThe Coop was open
772032015-03-222015-03-23qwerty3141RightI go to the Mark Drama on 23/03/15
772042015-03-222015-03-24qwerty3141RightI go to the Debating meal on 24/03/15
785542015-03-252020-01-01RandomThinker5RightSam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020
785562015-03-252020-01-01RandomThinker5RightSam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020
809812015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1Wrong7 mins to get there as measured by first of touching CC or F or getting to top of those stairs by 7m55s
809932015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightIn the first karaoke artist book I check, there will be no Mumford & Sons tracks in the obvious place
809942015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongIt's now between 23:15 and 23:45 on my phone
809952015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI take it back to the house
809962015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongR does M K 26th
809972015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades2RightR has been told by 05:00 'Friday' he's the M K person
809982015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightThey catch the bus
809992015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightNo Church in the Wild on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue
810002015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongAction Ronson - Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue now
810012015-03-302015-05-02KnaveOfAllTrades3WrongAction Ronson – Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue by 2nd May 2015 or thereabouts (conditional on checking 'thereabouts' as judged by me)
810022015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongCoD: MW3 Survival: That truck on Fallen blows up
810032015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightMalcolm X was murdered, and died from (in part or otherwise) gunshot wound
810042015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1Right2pac died between 25 and 35 conventional years of age
810052015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1Wrong2pac died between 30 and 34 conventional years of age, inclusive
810312015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongNina Simone's birthday was May 10th
810322015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongNina Simone's birthday was May 11th
810332015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1Wrong10 the other
810342015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1Wrong11 the other
810352015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBased on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 4/10
810362015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightBased on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 5/10
810372015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBased on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 6/10
810382015-03-302015-03-30KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBased on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 7/10
811182015-03-302015-05-07RoryS2WrongUKIP will have more seats than the Liberal Democrats following the next UK general election
811192015-03-302015-12-31RoryS2WrongI will have a credence greater than 50% that the Everett interpretation of QM is true.
814862015-03-312015-03-31KnaveOfAllTrades5WrongBased on age, Otis Redding died from heart condition
814872015-03-312015-03-31KnaveOfAllTrades3WrongBased on age, Otis Redding was murdered
814882015-03-312015-03-31KnaveOfAllTrades3WrongBased on age, Otis Redding killed by cancer
814892015-03-312015-03-31KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongBased on age, Otis Redding committed suicide (might be hard to judge; prepare to leave Unknown)
823402015-04-022015-04-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongSpot the REAL Hypothesis: 2b real, conditional on exactly one real
823412015-04-022015-04-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongSpot the REAL Hypothesis: 2c real, conditional on exactly one real
823442015-04-022015-04-02KnaveOfAllTrades1RightSpot the REAL Hypothesis: 3b real, conditional on exactly one real
823452015-04-022015-04-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongSpot the REAL Hypothesis: 3c real, conditional on exactly one real
826642015-04-032015-04-05rebellionkid1Right/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 4th/5th April
831372015-04-042015-04-04KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongR says that A of A&P is a wrap up job
834202015-04-042015-04-06Capla2RightThere will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group.
843822015-04-062015-05-25Adam Zerner2RightMy achilles will be better (able to run) within 7 more weeks.
843832015-04-062015-04-07Adam Zerner1WrongWisconsin will beat Duke
851042015-04-072015-09-04RoryS1RightMolly will be with Felix when I arrive
856112015-04-092020-01-01jesselevine2There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR)
856242015-04-092024-01-01jesselevine4At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024
864992015-04-112015-11-04RoryS1RightI will be on time to meet Nathan tomorrow
865002015-04-112015-11-04RoryS1RightI will see Ryan tomorrow
865012015-04-112015-11-04RoryS2WrongI will not run into Kat tomorrow
870322015-04-112015-04-12RoryS1WrongThe Facebook message will be from Ryan
870332015-04-112015-04-12RoryS1WrongThe Facebook message will be from Kat
870362015-04-112015-11-05RoryS1RightMy next Facebook notification will be from a group
870372015-04-112015-04-12Porejide1WrongWe will "win" Escape the Room tonight.
870402015-04-112015-05-21RoryS2WrongMy hair will be complimented next time I go clubbing
873022015-04-122015-04-12RoryS1RightChelsea will beat QPR
873032015-04-122015-04-12RoryS1WrongQPR will beat Chelsea
875782015-04-132100-01-01jesselevine4Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research.
875792015-04-132030-01-01JoshuaZ8By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke
882482015-04-142015-04-14qwerty3141WrongI will sit next to FMK in topology
882492015-04-142015-04-20qwerty3141WrongFMK will talk to me by or on 19/04
882502015-04-142015-04-27qwerty3141WrongFMK will talk to me by or on 26/04
882512015-04-142015-05-04qwerty3141WrongFMK will talk to me by or on 03/05
884912015-04-142015-04-16PseudonymousUser2RightMy parents will complain about me not having a job at any moment in the next 24 hours.
884922015-04-142015-04-15PseudonymousUser1WrongI think for dinner tomorrow I will have my Mediterranean Rice.
884932015-04-142015-04-15PseudonymousUser1WrongI will wake up at anywhere between 11:20 and 11:30 today in the morning.
884942015-04-142015-04-15PseudonymousUser3RightThat when I wake up Earth will still exist.
884952015-04-142015-04-15PseudonymousUser2WrongI will get a girlfriend in the next 24 hours.
884962015-04-142015-04-19PseudonymousUser2WrongI will be able to code a Random Name Generator by the end of the week.
884972015-04-142015-10-31PseudonymousUser2WrongI will find Rory's next sexual partner attractive.
884982015-04-142015-04-30PseudonymousUser2WrongMy calibration will be better than Rory's.
884992015-04-142015-04-30PseudonymousUser1RightI would have made over 100 predictions by the end of this month.
885002015-04-142015-06-15RoryS2WrongI will have sex in Sasha's room
885012015-04-142015-12-31RoryS2WrongI will decide on MIRI as a charity that I donate a proportion of my donation money to.
887122015-04-152015-04-15KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongBased on age, Jacqueline Susann died from chronic or acute substance abuse, ingestion, or similar, according to Wikipedia
887132015-04-152015-04-15KnaveOfAllTrades4WrongBased on age, Jacqueline Susann died from heart problem not immediately due to ingestion, according to Wikipedia
887142015-04-152015-04-15KnaveOfAllTrades3RightBased on age, Jacqueline Susann died from cancer, according to Wikipedia
888142015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1WrongI will get heads on my next coin flip.
888152015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightI will not receive a response from a job application at all today.
888162015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser2WrongI can drink 3 glasses of water in less than 15 seconds.
888172015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightI will win my next Pokémon battle. (Against players).
888182015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightWhen I check BBC weather the temperature for today will be anywhere between 20-22c. (In Plymouth).
888242015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightI can hold my breath for longer than 30 seconds.
888252015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightI can type more than 70 words per minute.
888262015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightI can do more than 120 clicks a minute.
888272015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightI can do 22 sit ups in 30 seconds.
888302015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser2WrongI have made a list of 30 words (No longer than 5 characters). I have 2 minutes to memorise as many as I can. I think I can memorise at least 18. I have 2 minutes to write down as many as I can.
888312015-04-152015-04-16RoryS1RightThe muesli will be good
888462015-04-152050-01-01PseudonymousUser3By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind.
888542015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1WrongRyan will send me a YouTube Video at some point before today ends.
888552015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1WrongHema will insult me in some way before today ends.
888562015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1WithdrawnI will feel sad at the end of today because my three major private predictions will not happen.
888582015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightOn my way to the shops I will encounter nobody I know.
888752015-04-152015-04-15PseudonymousUser1RightWhen I click on my YouTube tab, the song will be at 1:04.
888782015-04-152015-04-16PseudonymousUser1RightStar Horn Royal Club will beat (absolutely destroy) Young Glory in the LCS
893882015-04-152015-11-30PseudonymousUser5WrongI will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5.
894602015-04-162016-01-01VoidChronos2WrongBlizzard will release Hearthstone to the consoles this year.
895752015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is King Kunta
895762015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Institutionalized
895772015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is These Walls
895782015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is u
895792015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Alright
895802015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is For Sale? (Interlude)
895832015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades3WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Hood Politics
895842015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is How Much A Dollar Cost
895852015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Complexion (A Zulu Love)
895862015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is The Blacker the Berry
895872015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is You Ain't Gotta Lie (Momma Said)
895882015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is i
895892015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being one of the 16, Kendrick's favourite track from TPAB is Mortal Man
895902015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1RightKendrick's favourite track from TPAB is exactly one of the 16 in that article or where it's referring to, assuming an answer or link or so forth is given
895912015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Kanye
895922015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades3WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Eminem
895932015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2RightConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Earl Sweatshirt
895942015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Tyler, the Creator
895952015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Jay Z
895962015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is A$AP Rocky
895972015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Childish Gambino
895982015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Drake
895992015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on it being given as expected, Kendrick's favourite rapper right now is Ty Dolla $ign
896382015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongS sighted by me or R crossing the threshold of or loitering outside of M given R puts 20%
896392015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2RightAdam at M
896402015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2RightL seen at M
896412015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1RightL seen at M given R puts 83%
896422015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI see a GE committee member at M
896432015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1RightMe or R go(es) into McDonald's after M w/c 2015-04-06
896442015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1RightThat 100m I did was strictly under 15.00s
896452015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThat 100m I did was strictly under 13.50s
896462015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongThat 100m I did was strictly under 13.00s
896472015-04-162015-04-16KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongCC gets her number today and didn't have it before today
896802015-04-162015-04-16qwerty3141RightMy 100m was strictly below 12.80s
897222015-04-162015-04-16PseudonymousUser1WrongI will have a negative KDA in my next League of Legends match.
897232015-04-162015-04-16PseudonymousUser1WrongI will lose my lane in this game, even though I counter my opponent.
898282015-04-162016-09-01NathanMcKnight4RightHillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia.
898292015-04-162016-09-01NathanMcKnight3WrongHillary Clinton chooses Sherrod Brown as running mate.
898302015-04-162015-08-30NathanMcKnight2Right"No Award" sweeps the Hugos this year.
898312015-04-162015-08-30NathanMcKnight4Right"No Award" takes at least one Hugo category this year.
898532015-04-162015-04-16RoryS1RightI can do 20 sit ups in 30 seconds
904972015-04-172015-05-06RoryS2RightI will meet up with Felix in London prior to exams
904982015-04-172015-04-17qwerty3141RightCBAB doesn't respond on Facebook by the end of the day
908132015-04-172015-04-17PseudonymousUser2WrongI will die at least once in this BGO game.
908142015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1RightHawks beat the Nets
908152015-04-172015-04-17RoryS3WithdrawnWe will this game on BGO
908162015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1RightCavs beat the Celtics
908172015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1RightBulls beat the Bucks
908182015-04-172015-12-31PseudonymousUser4WrongI will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year).
908192015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1RightWizards beat the Raptors
908202015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1RightWarriors beat the Pelicans
908212015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1RightRockets beat the Mavs
908222015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1WrongSpurs beat the Clippers
908232015-04-172015-05-01Adam Zerner1RightGrizzlies beat the Blazers
908652015-04-172015-04-18RoryS2WrongSomeone will leave this game
908662015-04-172015-04-18RoryS2WrongI will finish ahead of Nathan in this game of BGO (excluding premature departure)
910982015-04-182016-11-08FractalHeretic7WrongAt least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election.
912782015-04-182015-04-19RoryS1RightIf I use mussels tonight, I will successfully incorporate them into a good tasting meal
912792015-04-182015-12-31RoryS1WrongI will become sympathetic to mainstream analytic metaphysics by the end of the year
913232015-04-182015-04-18Hurzek1RightI will finish all of my abnormal Psychology notes by the end of the day.
913432015-04-182016-09-16Hurzek2I'll get into an American University next year.
913562015-04-182015-06-10RoryS2WrongI will start blogging after exams
917722015-04-182015-12-31RoryS1WrongI will become convinced enough by neoreactionary arguments that, at the end of the year, it would not be clearly mistaken for someone to label me a 'neoreactionary', regardless of whether I personally self-identify as one.
917732015-04-182015-12-31RoryS1RightI will still self-identify as an effective altruist at the end of this year
917742015-04-182015-12-31RoryS2RightMy diet will still be vegan or bivalvegan at the end of this year
917962015-04-182016-01-01RoryS3WrongI will find deontology convincing as a moral theory at the end of the year.
918182015-04-182015-04-21RoryS1WithdrawnIf I decide to go, I will find Emily Skarbek's lecture on feminism and the free market interesting
918192015-04-182015-04-19RoryS1WrongSomeone will ask about packing tomorrow
918202015-04-182015-04-30OisinMoran5RightTesla motors' next product release will be a home battery
918212015-04-182015-12-31RoryS1WithdrawnMy view of truth will be closer to that of Rorty-James style pragmatism than Blackburn-Price style pragmatism by the end of the year
918222015-04-182015-06-10RoryS1WrongA will make a move on me before I leave London this year
918232015-04-182015-06-10RoryS1WrongI will end up sleeping at A, B, and C's house before leaving London
918242015-04-182015-06-10RoryS1WrongI will end up at D's house before I leave London
918252015-04-182015-04-19RoryS2RightEveryone will have awoken by the time I get out of bed tomorrow
918302015-04-182015-04-19RoryS1WrongDad will be in when I wake up
918312015-04-192015-04-19PseudonymousUser2WrongI will accidentally kill Rory in this BGO game...
918322015-04-192015-04-19PseudonymousUser2RightWe will win this BGO game.
918332015-04-192015-04-19PseudonymousUser2RightI will get a double dice roll at least once in this BGO game.
918342015-04-192015-04-19PseudonymousUser2RightI will die at least once in this BGO game.
918352015-04-192015-04-19PseudonymousUser2RightI will get over 100 rupees in this BGO game.
921902015-04-192030-01-01jasticE6Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030
930452015-04-192015-04-21RoryS1RightI will go out when I get back on Monday
930462015-04-192015-06-10RoryS2WrongI will get someone's number through meeting them in a bookshop before I leave London
941272015-04-202015-04-21RoryS1RightThe first train when I'm next travelling back from Canada Water will go straight where I want it to go
942752015-04-202015-04-22qwerty3144WrongI get a fine of £100 or greater at the disciplinary meeting
942762015-04-202015-04-21qwerty3143WrongI get a fine of £200 or greater at the disciplinary meeting
942772015-04-202015-04-21qwerty3142WrongI get a fine of £250 at the disciplinary meeting
942782015-04-202015-04-21qwerty3142RightI will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting
942792015-04-202015-04-21qwerty3142RightThey make a recommendation to the university secretary that the case is heard be the vice chancellor
959982015-04-222015-04-22RoryS1WrongI will end up going out tonight
959992015-04-222015-05-16RoryS2WrongThe frequency of my urination will be back to normal in a month's time
960002015-04-222021-09-22RoryS2I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course)
961772015-04-232015-08-01jesselevine3WrongI will complete summer physics ii and chemistry courses with nothing lower than an A-
961782015-04-232015-04-30jesselevine2RightDN will relapse and continue to smoke tobacco within a week
967292015-04-232016-06-01JoshuaZ1WrongI will have at least three more papers published by June of 2016
968122015-04-232100-01-01jesselevine1I will live longer than JoshuaZ
979432015-04-242015-05-13Andrew MacFie1WrongReal Madrid will advance to the finals of the 2015 Champions League
979442015-04-242015-06-06Andrew MacFie5WrongJuventus will win the 2015 Champions League
979452015-04-242015-06-06Andrew MacFie3WrongBayern Munich will win the 2015 Champions League
979462015-04-242015-06-06Andrew MacFie6RightBarcelona will win the 2015 Champions League
979472015-04-242015-06-06Andrew MacFie2WrongReal Madrid will win the 2015 Champions League
979482015-04-242015-04-25JoshuaZ2WrongH.A. will not schedule the test today.
979702015-04-242030-01-01JoshuaZ12By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them.
979712015-04-242015-05-01Jayson Virissimo1WrongI will get hired as a full employee (non-contractor) by a software company within a week from now.
987672015-04-252015-04-26JoshuaZ1RightI will do at least 40 pushups today
987682015-04-252045-01-01JoshuaZ2Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest.
997322015-04-262015-04-26PseudonymousUser1WrongThe temperature for today, when I check BBC weather, will be around 17-18c.
997332015-04-262015-04-26KnaveOfAllTrades1RightThat Friend Request is from Toaff
997342015-04-262015-04-26PseudonymousUser1RightRoman will be on league of legends when I log in.
997352015-04-262015-04-26KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongFiona Apple - Paper Bag on Sunfly karaoke website catalogue
997362015-04-262016-11-10JoshuaZ3WrongIn the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate.
998262015-04-262015-04-28RoryS2RightUpon telling the next group of friends I meet in person, they will find it appropriate, or not incongruent with my general persona, why I've been labelled a 'guilty crush'.
998272015-04-262015-05-03RoryS5RightI will get the number of the next person I approach
1000112015-04-272015-04-27PseudonymousUser3RightI will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today!
1000122015-04-272015-04-27RoryS1RightMy money will come through by the end of tomorrow
1003472015-04-272015-04-27qwerty3142WrongA's song is Billionaire
1003482015-04-272015-04-27PseudonymousUser1RightI will get the lane I want in the next game of league.
1003492015-04-272015-04-27PseudonymousUser1WrongI will beat my lane opponent in this game of league.
1003502015-04-272015-04-27PseudonymousUser1WrongWe will win this game of league.
1004992015-04-272015-04-28RoryS1WrongMs Cupcake will be selling red velvet cookie sandwiches tomorrow
1005002015-04-272015-04-27TheBlackFox1Rightthat is a guy
1005752015-04-272020-01-01JoshuaZ1WrongBy 2020, at least 25% of colleges in the US in 2015 will be bankrupt or otherwise defunct.
1015362015-04-282015-10-29jesselevine3WrongShould James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment.
1017692015-04-292015-05-02KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI go to M this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday
1017702015-04-292015-05-03KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI go to P this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday
1017712015-04-292015-06-01KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongFC by end of May
1017722015-04-292015-06-01KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongKC by end of May
1017732015-04-292015-05-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongI finish first read-through of the Topology notes by midnight ending this Friday
1017742015-04-292015-04-29KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongSome 2Pac's album listed under the Discography section of his main Wikipedia article is given on its Wikipedia article as having >= 90% on Metacritic (critic rating in marginal case)
1017752015-04-292015-04-29KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongOne or more of Abbey Road, White Album, Sgt Pepper has a Metacritic critic score
1017762015-04-292015-04-29KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongHe says something along the lines of 'It only takes one to rek me' by 02:00
1017772015-04-292015-04-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightI do my gym and 'track stuff' 2015-04-29 Wednesday
1017822015-04-292015-06-01KnaveOfAllTrades1RightGinny Weasley and the Sealed Intelligence finished by end of May San Francisco time
1017832015-04-292015-04-29KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongDuration of Mortal Man is 14:06 in the music player
1017842015-04-292015-04-29KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongDuration of Mortal Man is 14:10 in the music player
1017852015-04-292015-04-29KnaveOfAllTrades1RightThat verse on No Diggity was done by a female MC
1017862015-04-292015-05-02azax12WrongI won't get the math tutor position.
1017872015-04-292016-11-10JoshuaZ5WrongConditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%..
1017882015-04-292015-05-14JoshuaZ2RightFinal grades for my students will be in by May 14
1017892015-04-292015-05-12JoshuaZ2WrongEvery bonus question on the exam will have at least one student get it right.
1017902015-04-292015-05-14JoshuaZ2RightNo student will get all the bonus questions on the exam.
1031732015-04-302015-04-30KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongDrop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2001-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date
1031742015-04-302015-04-30KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongDrop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2002-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date
1031752015-04-302015-04-30KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongDrop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2003-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date
1031762015-04-302015-04-30KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongDrop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2004-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date
1031772015-04-302015-04-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightDrop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2005-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date
1031782015-04-302015-04-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightDrop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2006-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date
1042942015-05-012016-01-01Faceh2RightThe Bernie Sanders Campaign Subreddit, http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/, will have more than 100,000 subscribers by the end of 2015.
1044852015-05-012024-01-01aoeu1The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024
1045692015-05-012015-05-14RoryS2WrongNick Clegg will still be leader of the Lib Dems a week following the UK GE
1045702015-05-012015-05-01RoryS1WrongMoises will make a Facebook status with the word 'haha' or some laughter variant before the end of the day
1045712015-05-012015-05-02RoryS2RightI will end up disputing a claim Edmund makes before I go home
1045722015-05-012017-01-01btrettel4WrongThere will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016.
1045732015-05-012017-01-01btrettel4RightThere will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016.
1045742015-05-012029-05-01JoshuaZ1Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due.
1045752015-05-012024-01-01JoshuaZ6Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024
1046102015-05-022015-05-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongDrake 5'8" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus
1046112015-05-022015-05-02KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongDrake 5'7" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus
1046352015-05-022016-07-29JoshuaZ66WrongBernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination.
1046482015-05-022015-05-03PseudonymousUser1WrongI will have completed more than 40% of the Python course by the end of today.
1046492015-05-022015-05-03PseudonymousUser2RightI will read some more Less Wrong articles by the end of today.
1046502015-05-022015-05-02PseudonymousUser1WrongThe temperature for today will be 14-15c when I check BBC weather.
1046512015-05-022015-05-02PseudonymousUser1WrongMy thread on the League Forums has likely been downvoted.
1046522015-05-022016-06-01PseudonymousUser2I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe).
1046532015-05-032035-01-01JoshuaZ3At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035.
1046542015-05-032015-05-03KnaveOfAllTrades1RightArea of a regular n-gon is ns^2/(4tan(pi/n))
1046702015-05-032015-05-03KnaveOfAllTrades1RightThat female vocalist on Ab Soul - Double Standards is Anna Wise
1047672015-05-032015-05-17Adam Zerner2RightWarriors beat the Grizzlies
1048092015-05-032015-05-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightTim Shieff completes his heat course in Ninja Warrior UK series 1 conditional on him competing
1048102015-05-032015-05-30KnaveOfAllTrades1RightTim Shieff clears the heats of Ninja Warrior UK series 1 (i.e. makes semi-finals direct, by highest-scoring loser, etc.), conditional on him competing
1048112015-05-042035-01-01jesselevine4>50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035
1048282015-05-042015-05-14JoshuaZ3WrongOf my 140 students, at least 5 students will score above 90% on their Calc I final.
1049142015-05-042015-05-18Adam Zerner2WrongClippers beat the Rockets
1049352015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian.
1049362015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday I will be employed and working in a data science-y or programmerish occupation.
1049372015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the US.
1049382015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the greater Boston area.
1049392015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday, Sam will still be alive and I will still be married to him.
1049402015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday, I will have had 4 or more children (excluding offspring from selling eggs).
1049412015-05-042030-05-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday, I will have had 3 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs).
1049422015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday, I will have had 2 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs).
1049452015-05-042030-07-31EloiseRosen1On my 40th birthday, I will have had 1 child (excluding offspring from selling eggs).
1050112015-05-042015-05-31PseudonymousUser2RightI will stick to Firefox as my default browser over Chrome.
1050452015-05-042017-01-01btrettel3RightBicyclist fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013
1054492015-05-052015-05-06RoryS1RightI will arrive at the exam on time tomorrow
1054502015-05-052015-05-05RoryS1RightJuventus will win this game
1054512015-05-052015-05-05RoryS1RightMy curry will taste good
1054522015-05-052015-12-31RoryS1WrongRyan and I will write a paper in the next year for the Foundational Research Institute
1054532015-05-052015-05-07RoryS1WrongI will use all the beansprouts I bought before their use-by date
1055242015-05-052015-05-05RoryS1WrongPaul is telling the truth
1055252015-05-052015-05-05RoryS1WrongDavid is telling the truth
1055262015-05-052015-05-05RoryS1WrongLee is telling the truth
1056682015-05-062015-05-31Pradeep_Kumar2WrongMy friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day.
1058232015-05-072015-05-08rebellionkid1WrongThe average of the big seat predictions overstates Tory seats
1059602015-05-082015-05-09rebellionkid3RightTories win >325 seats
1059612015-05-082015-05-09rebellionkid1RightTories win >316
1065372015-05-092015-05-10jesselevine1RightMy plane will be delayed longer than 30 minutes
1068852015-05-112015-05-12PseudonymousUser2RightI will get attacked on Tera while leveling because people are cunts.
1070342015-05-122018-05-12Michael Dickens1RightIn 3 years, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind.
1070402015-05-132017-12-27Raahul_Kumar5WrongBharat will pass the UK on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 5th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2017.
1070412015-05-132020-12-27Raahul_Kumar6Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020.
1071252015-05-132015-08-20jesselevine2WrongI will be >200 lbs, <13%bf by fall 2015
1071262015-05-132015-06-20lumpzy4WrongI will have a 4-6 pack before June 20th
1071272015-05-132015-08-28lumpzy2RightI will weigh more than 200lb before August 28th, 2015
1081782015-05-192016-01-01earfluffy1WithdrawnTorn Banner Studios will announce their Unreal Engine 4 project before 2016
1083492015-05-192015-05-25qwerty3141RightI have a confirmed fractured bone in my hand/wrist by or on 24/05
1085242015-05-202020-01-01btrettel1Texas irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS
1085852015-05-202015-06-04RoryS3WrongSlatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks.
1085862015-05-202015-12-31RoryS2RightI will accidentally buy non-bivalvegan food by the end of the year.
1085872015-05-202016-11-12JoshuaZ5WrongDemocrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote.
1086592015-05-212045-02-01FarOutFuture19884The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A.
1091142015-05-232015-05-29KnaveOfAllTrades2Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand
1091152015-05-232015-05-29KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongConditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a dislocate in his hand
1091162015-05-232015-12-31RoryS2WrongI will have read 5 novels by the end of this year
1092062015-05-232020-01-01btrettel1Domestic per capita water use in Texas will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS
1095602015-05-252018-11-20JoshuaZ6RightIn both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority.
1095612015-05-252020-01-01JoshuaZ3RightUS official unemployment rate to remain between 3% and 7.5% through January 1, 2020.
1096052015-05-252015-05-25KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongSee NB in da house 2 after one round of updating
1102122015-05-282015-06-14BiasedCalibration3WrongR+L=J to be explicitly referenced on screen by the end of Season 5 of Game of Thrones
1112042015-06-022016-07-15JoshuaZ1WrongNew Tau paper to be published by July 15, 2016
1117032015-06-032025-01-01PseudonymousUser1I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it.
1117042015-06-032016-08-02PseudonymousUser1Right[GoT] R + L = J will be revealed/referenced before the end of season 6.
1117052015-06-032030-01-01PseudonymousUser3Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India.
1117062015-06-032015-08-05PseudonymousUser1WrongIt'll take me less than two months to learn high school economics and business studies.
1118122015-06-042020-06-05PseudonymousUser2Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now.
1118132015-06-042017-06-05PseudonymousUser3RightI will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on.
1122592015-06-052015-06-10RoryS1RightMy dad will smile when he sees me after coming back home for the summer
1128842015-06-082016-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongStephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015.
1134832015-06-112016-06-16ejlflop4WrongMy research this summer will result in a published paper
1134842015-06-112017-01-01ejlflop1WrongI will discover a 16th/17th century composer more avant-garde than M. Rossi or Gesualdo
1136192015-06-112025-07-01btrettel5arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01
1136202015-06-112025-07-01btrettel9The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01
1140172015-06-132015-09-13splorridge4WithdrawnJeremy Corbyn will be elected Labour leader. This text has a line through it.
1140182015-06-132015-09-01splorridge1WrongI will weigh 63kg by September
1140192015-06-132016-01-01splorridge2WrongI will weigh 64kg by 2016
1140202015-06-132015-06-18splorridge2RightI will get a 2.1 or over in my degree
1140212015-06-132015-06-18splorridge3RightI will get a 1 in my degree
1140222015-06-132015-06-16theboubmeister2RightI will get a first in my degree.
1140232015-06-132015-06-13Xtobel3WrongI won't be able to finish the whole plate of brunch Sam is cooking for me
1146862015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo11RightNorth Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016.
1146872015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo8RightGreece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016.
1146882015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo5RightNeither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016.
1146892015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo12RightEbola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half.
1146902015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo12RightNo terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016.
1146912015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo7RightAssad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015.
1146922015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo5RightIsrael will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015.
1146932015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo51RightSyria’s civil war will not end before 2016.
1146942015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo4RightISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now.
1146952015-06-152016-01-01Jayson Virissimo10Right ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015.
1162812015-06-202015-12-31RoryS1WrongRyan & I will have an anecdote that is equal to or better than the prostitute story by the end of this year
1169722015-06-242016-11-09James Babcock21RightJeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States.
1169952015-06-252035-12-31Afforess1WithdrawnImprovements in telecommuting technology (VR, holograms, etc) will lead telecommuters to outnumber commuters in the USA
1169962015-06-252015-06-25RoryS1WrongI will have a new message when I check Facebook
1169972015-06-252015-06-25RoryS1RightY will be online when I check
1174542015-06-262016-01-01Madplatypus3WrongAbu Bakr al-Baghdadi will die before the end of the year.
1174552015-06-262020-01-01Madplatypus5WrongSaudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020.
1179572015-06-302015-12-31aschberg1I will have reached over a million dollars by year end.
1180172015-06-302016-05-02btrettel1WithdrawnConditional on being in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01, a cause will be electronic device use
1182842015-07-022015-12-27Raahul_Kumar11WrongUK will default on its debt.
1182852015-07-022015-12-27Raahul_Kumar10WrongFrance will default on its debt
1189242015-07-052015-10-01modulus11WrongGiven a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone
1189252015-07-052016-01-01modulus3WithdrawnGiven a yes result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone
1190342015-07-052015-07-06kuudes1WithdrawnGreece referendum of 2015-07-05 votes more Yes than No.
1190612015-07-052015-12-31SalTnutZ12RightThere will be a terrorist attack on US interests in 2015
1190622015-07-052015-12-31SalTnutZ18WrongMitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016
1190632015-07-052015-07-05SalTnutZ11Greece exists from the EU
1190642015-07-052016-07-05Afforess11WrongGreece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency
1190652015-07-052016-03-06aarongertler1WrongI will have 100 blog subscribers eight months from now. (aarongertler.net/subscribe)
1192882015-07-072016-01-01jesselevine2RightMass shooting occurs in the US before year end (>5 deaths or casualties)
1194762015-07-072016-11-12JoshuaZ3RightThe US 2016 Presidential election will occur on its currently scheduled Tuesday date.
1194772015-07-072017-01-01JoshuaZ12RightBy January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials.
1194782015-07-072016-11-11JoshuaZ18RightThe next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat.
1194792015-07-072028-07-08JoshuaZ12048 bit RSA keys to be widely considered to be deprecated by July 7, 2028
1194802015-07-072021-01-01JoshuaZ4The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020.
1194812015-07-072021-01-01JoshuaZ3The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020.
1194822015-07-072021-01-01JoshuaZ1As of January 1, 2021, Russia to have second most number of active nuclear powered subs out of any country.
1194832015-07-072026-01-01JoshuaZ1Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026.
1195372015-07-082015-07-10taryneast1RightThe power at my new place will have been swicthed on by Friday
1200192015-07-092015-10-27Raahul_Kumar3WrongBharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year.
1200212015-07-092017-10-27Raahul_Kumar10WrongLas Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina.
1200222015-07-092017-01-01Raahul_Kumar5WrongScotland to secede from the UK in 2017.
1203722015-07-102018-03-16InquilineKea6RightJimmy Carter to become the longest-living president in US History
1203732015-07-102016-12-31InquilineKea1WrongQuora to become top-100 site (measured by Alexa) by the end of 2016
1203742015-07-102016-12-31InquilineKea1PewDiePie to still be the #1 YouTube celebrity by the end of 2016
1203752015-07-102020-12-31InquilineKea1Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020
1203762015-07-102022-09-16InquilineKea1Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian
1203772015-07-102023-12-16InquilineKea2Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian
1203782015-07-102025-12-16InquilineKea2At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025
1203792015-07-102016-12-31InquilineKea2RightAt least one of the Apollo astronauts will die by the end of 2016
1203802015-07-102025-12-31InquilineKea3Quora will independently survive to 2025
1203812015-07-102020-12-31InquilineKea38PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020
1203822015-07-102019-12-31InquilineKea6RightPirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020
1204082015-07-102025-01-01silacoid2By 2025, at least 30% of new cars sold in Norway will be electric.
1204092015-07-102030-01-01silacoid2By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads.
1205562015-07-102017-01-02InquilineKea3Right2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the entire world (by the time historical records ever began)
1207562015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1gnxp.com to last to 2025
1207572015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea2Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015
1207582015-07-112016-01-01InquilineKea1RightSteve Huffman will remain as reddit CEO to the end of 2015
1207592015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea2Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020
1207602015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea1WithdrawnMDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020
1207612015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea1LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030
1207622015-07-112016-12-16InquilineKea1RightDemocratic Party will carry Minnesota in 2016
1207632015-07-112016-12-16InquilineKea1RightDemocratic Party will carry Colorado in 2016
1207642015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Steam to remain as #1 digital distribution platform for gaming by 2025
1207652015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea1Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years
1207662015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea6Google will acquire Quora by 2020
1207672015-07-112019-01-01InquilineKea6WrongGoogle will acquire Yelp by 2018
1207682015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea2MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020
1207692015-07-112017-01-01InquilineKea22015-2016 El Nino to be stronger than 1997-1998 El Nino
1207702015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Wolfram Research will last through 2025
1207832015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Cystic Fibrosis to be a curable illness by 2025
1207842015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025
1207852015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea4Kakapo will go extinct by 2030
1207862015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea2Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030
1207872015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea1Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030
1207882015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea2Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030
1207892015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea15-MAPB to be researched as a possible treatment for at least one medical condition (autism, anxiety, PTSD, etc) by 2025
1207902015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea3Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030
1207912015-07-112036-01-01InquilineKea1We will reach "longevity escape velocity" by 2035
1207922015-07-112019-01-01InquilineKea1Right4chan to remain a top-1000 site by the end of 2018
1207932015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Runescape will still exist by 2025
1207942015-07-112023-01-01InquilineKea1There will be no paper newspapers left in the US by 2022 (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/)
1207952015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Yale to become a top-15 Computer Science program by 2025
1207962015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea2Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020
1207972015-07-112029-06-16InquilineKea1Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian
1207982015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea3Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020
1207992015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea1WrongFreeman Dyson to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020
1208002015-07-112023-01-01InquilineKea4Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/)
1208012015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Jane Goodall to do IAmA on reddit by 2025
1208222015-07-112018-12-16InquilineKea1WrongHelmut Schmidt to become a centenarian
1209432015-07-112019-01-01InquilineKea1WrongQuora to make an independent IPO by 2018
1209442015-07-112029-12-16InquilineKea1Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6
1209612015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea3Adobe to survive to 2025
1209622015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Electronic Arts to survive to 2025
1209632015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea1Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030
1209642015-07-112051-01-01InquilineKea1Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050)
1209652015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1Slashdot to exist through 2025
1209662015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1SomethingAwful to exist through 2025
1209672015-07-112023-01-01InquilineKea1There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm )
1209682015-07-112026-01-01InquilineKea1There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm )
1209692015-07-112029-01-01InquilineKea1Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 - Clayton Christensen
1209702015-07-112020-01-01InquilineKea3Wrong50% of all high school classes in the US to be taught online by 2019 (Clayton Christensen)
1209732015-07-112031-01-01InquilineKea12At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030
1209742015-07-112036-01-01InquilineKea2At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian
1209752015-07-112033-01-01InquilineKea1At least one of the Gemini astronauts will become a centenarian
1209762015-07-112021-08-01InquilineKea2WrongAt least one of the Mercury astronauts to become a centenarian
1209772015-07-112021-01-01InquilineKea3WrongJohn Paul Stevens to become a centenarian
1209822015-07-112016-06-30BiasedCalibration4RightR+L=J to be confirmed during Season 6 of Game of Thrones
1210282015-07-122019-01-01Madplatypus2RightIf Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all.
1210292015-07-122035-01-01Madplatypus4The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades.
1210302015-07-122015-07-31quanticle8WrongGreece will cease using the Euro as its currency.
1210312015-07-122021-01-01Madplatypus5There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020.
1210322015-07-122018-01-01Madplatypus11WrongKurdistan will be a UN member by 2018.
1214172015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020
1214182015-07-132023-01-01InquilineKea1Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian
1214192015-07-132029-01-01InquilineKea4Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian
1214202015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1214212015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea5World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1214222015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1214232015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215222015-07-132045-01-01InquilineKea1At least one Apollo astronaut to live to see Artificial General Intelligence
1215232015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea2reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215242015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215252015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea5LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215262015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215272015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea4Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215282015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea2Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215292015-07-132099-01-01InquilineKea1The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once)
1215302015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015
1215312015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030
1215322015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215332015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215342015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010
1215352015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010
1215362015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea2Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010
1215372015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1Minneapolis population higher in 2030 than 2010
1215382015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010
1215392015-07-132026-01-01InquilineKea2MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015
1215402015-07-132026-01-01InquilineKea1Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015
1215412015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215422015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215432015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215442015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215452015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea2Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010
1215462015-07-132026-01-16InquilineKea5Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015
1215472015-07-132026-01-01InquilineKea1Amphetamines to be more popular in 2025 than 2015
1215482015-07-132026-01-01InquilineKea1Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015
1215492015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215502015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Apple to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015
1215512015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea6Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015
1215522015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea3Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015
1215532015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea4Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015
1215542015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010
1215552015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010
1215562015-07-132031-01-01InquilineKea1There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010
1215572015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Microsoft to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015
1215582015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015
1215592015-07-132020-07-13InquilineKea1Yasuhiro Nakasone will become the longest-lived Prime Minister of Japan
1215602015-07-132026-01-01InquilineKea1There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025
1215612015-07-132024-01-01InquilineKea1Chuck Yeager to become a centenarian
1215622015-07-132024-01-01InquilineKea1Lee Teng-Hui to become a centenarian
1215632015-07-132021-01-01InquilineKea1Vine to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1215642015-07-132035-01-16InquilineKea2At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars
1215652015-07-132021-01-16InquilineKea1Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020
1215662015-07-132021-01-16InquilineKea7Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015
1217432015-07-142016-07-20JoshuaZ88RightDonald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016.
1220222015-07-142016-07-14RoryS1I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton
1223742015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea2We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020
1223752015-07-152026-01-01InquilineKea1Voyager 1 to outlast the Mars Curiosity rover
1223762015-07-152026-01-01InquilineKea1WithdrawnVoyager 1 to outlast New Horizons
1223772015-07-152026-01-01InquilineKea1WithdrawnVoyager 1 to outlast Juno
1223782015-07-152026-01-01InquilineKea1Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission
1224002015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea1io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1224012015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea1cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1224022015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea2BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1224032015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea7http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1224042015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea1aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1224052015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea1nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1224062015-07-152021-01-01InquilineKea5Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1224072015-07-152031-01-01InquilineKea3Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030
1224082015-07-152022-01-01InquilineKea1Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday
1224962015-07-162015-07-20ZeitPolizei1WrongFinished and sent off BA by next Monday.
1224972015-07-162015-07-21ZeitPolizei1WrongClean up data at LIN next monday
1225542015-07-162031-01-01InquilineKea1Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030
1225552015-07-162018-01-01InquilineKea2RightGeorge H.W. Bush to live beyond Gerald Ford's record lifespan
1225572015-07-162021-01-01InquilineKea125I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015
1225792015-07-162031-01-01InquilineKea1WithdrawnN'kisi the parrot to live to 2030
1226592015-07-162026-01-01InquilineKea1Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010
1226602015-07-162026-01-01InquilineKea1Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010
1226612015-07-162026-01-01InquilineKea8Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010
1228672015-07-172026-01-01InquilineKea4Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015
1230172015-07-172026-01-01InquilineKea3Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are)
1232052015-07-182015-07-30silacoid2RightWhen my Kindle Voyage ( imported through US friends to avoid an Amazon shipping restriction ) arrives , all functionality including 3G will work here in Norway
1235382015-07-202015-10-25ZeitPolizei1WrongV will visit the TNS lecture.
1235392015-07-202016-01-01ZeitPolizei2WrongC will get together with L by next new year.
1235402015-07-212026-01-01InquilineKea1Will Wright to do an IAmA on reddit by 2025
1235412015-07-212021-01-01InquilineKea1On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s
1235422015-07-212026-01-01InquilineKea1New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015
1243602015-07-252016-01-01InquilineKea1WrongOliver Sacks will live into 2016
1243612015-07-252015-07-30PurpleDango4RightI will get at least 7 wins in this mage arena run
1244142015-07-252015-07-31Nikolas5RightI'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri)
1244152015-07-252015-08-01acradis1Escribiré al menos dos historias cortas
1244162015-07-252015-07-28acradis1WrongAcabaré el libro de Grimm y empezaré y acabaré el siguiente libro
1245042015-07-252015-10-19sdafdsfsdfdsfa1RightComplete marathon
1248532015-07-262016-07-01btrettel1WrongPandora will call me with a "special offer" by 2016-07-01
1252882015-07-282099-01-01InquilineKea10Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it
1252892015-07-282099-01-01InquilineKea8Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it
1252902015-07-282026-01-01InquilineKea3California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025
1253382015-07-282021-01-01InquilineKea2There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020
1253682015-07-282020-01-02btrettel3WrongThe Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2020
1254772015-07-282021-01-01InquilineKea6"Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade" - Jacob Cannell
1255142015-07-292015-10-01Jayson Virissimo10WrongThe US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal.
1257202015-07-292051-01-01InquilineKea4Social Security in US to still exist by 2050
1258412015-07-292030-01-01InquilineKea5At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s
1258422015-07-292031-01-01InquilineKea2US will ally with Iran by 2030 - Alex Lightman
1258432015-07-292031-01-01InquilineKea1"China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places" - Alex Lightman
1258442015-07-292031-01-01InquilineKea16North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030
1262682015-07-312025-07-01Snorkelfarsan16There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)
1270292015-08-022026-01-01InquilineKea8At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025
1270302015-08-022020-08-04espore4RightThe conservatives will win the next general election in the UK
1270312015-08-022080-10-16espore6A true general intelligence AI will be created
1270322015-08-022035-10-16espore10Humans will be sent to Mars
1274392015-08-042041-01-01InquilineKea11HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)
1274402015-08-042041-01-01InquilineKea13We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040
1274412015-08-042041-01-01InquilineKea8By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat
1274422015-08-042031-01-01InquilineKea6Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020
1275812015-08-052015-12-01juliomarcos1Vamos ter uma v0 do dash até começo de dezembro
1277182015-08-062100-01-01InquilineKea2Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100
1277192015-08-062100-01-01InquilineKea2Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100
1277282015-08-062015-09-01ZeitPolizei1Rightwill meet L when I'm back
1277312015-08-062015-08-07ZeitPolizei1RightFinish Superintelligence today.
1278402015-08-062017-01-01silacoid1RightAsh vs Evil Dead will run 2 or more seasons
1280412015-08-072025-01-01JoshuaZ7India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025
1287762015-08-102025-12-31Raahul_Kumar1Brasil will be ranked 7 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10.
1287772015-08-102025-12-31Raahul_Kumar1Indonesia will be ranked 8 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10.
1288752015-08-102016-07-29JoshuaZ13RightClinton to be Democratic nominee
1289012015-08-102020-01-01JoshuaZ1RightBoson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2020.
1290182015-08-102015-08-25Jayson Virissimo4RightI will get a job offer from Tuft and Needle.
1290192015-08-112026-01-01InquilineKea4By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years
1295992015-08-122015-09-12EloiseRosen9WrongIn the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists.
1296422015-08-122030-01-01JoshuaZ1RightNew Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2030.
1296432015-08-122035-01-01JoshuaZ6Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035.
1296442015-08-122042-01-01JoshuaZ1NTRU found to be fundamentally vulnerable to quantum computer based attacks by January 1, 2042.
1296452015-08-122016-03-01JoshuaZ1RightI will buy another book written by Brandon Sanderson before next March.
1296462015-08-122017-01-01JoshuaZ1RightVandiver conjecture to not be resolved before January 1, 2017.
1297132015-08-122051-01-02btrettel4More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050
1298982015-08-132015-08-29Jayson Virissimo4WrongI will get a job offer from GoDaddy.
1298992015-08-132016-01-01unexpectedEOF4RightThe level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015.
1302252015-08-152016-04-01unexpectedEOF1WrongThe Interactive portion of SXSW 2016 will see fewer than 35,000 attendees.
1302262015-08-152016-01-20unexpectedEOF11RightMo-Pac express lanes will not be completed and accepting traffic before January 20th, 2016.
1302542015-08-152016-07-02EloiseRosen4WrongRosa Parks will be on the new 10 dollar bill.
1302962015-08-152015-08-30damaru1This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 85-95
1302972015-08-152015-08-30damaru2RightThis prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 45-55
1303602015-08-152042-01-01JoshuaZ1Of the total-coloring conjecture, list coloring conjecture, the EFL conjecture, and the Hardwiger conjecture, by Jan 1, 2042, either a triplet of them shown to imply the other, or one of them shown to be undecidable.
1305752015-08-162017-07-01kuudes5WrongGreece will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income or other type of basic income before end of 06/2017 for more than 90% of its working age population.
1306992015-08-172030-01-07cmessinger4Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030
1308062015-08-172016-01-01Afforess2WrongCalifornia will experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or stronger in 2015
1308072015-08-172100-01-01moridinamael9There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars
1308082015-08-172015-11-01moridinamael3WrongHome repairs will run more than 20% over budget
1308092015-08-172015-11-01moridinamael5WrongHome repairs will run more than 10% over budget
1313572015-08-192016-08-16mayanju1WrongRussia will be aggressive toward Finland.
1313582015-08-192015-10-16mayanju4WrongNothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months.
1320902015-08-212035-01-01JoshuaZ1By January 1, 2035, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered.
1323902015-08-222015-09-07EloiseRosen2RightBurning man predictions: I will see >0 topless girls.
1323912015-08-222015-09-07EloiseRosen1RightBurning man predictions: I will cry >0 times.
1323922015-08-222015-09-07EloiseRosen2WrongBurning man predictions: We’ll miss our connecting flight on the way there.
1323932015-08-222015-09-07EloiseRosen1RightBurning man predictions: I will see Vika.
1323942015-08-222015-09-07EloiseRosen1WrongBurning man predictions: Giant penis tower will be there again.
1323952015-08-222015-09-07EloiseRosen2WrongBurning man predictions: I will have a nightmare involving bugs.
1323962015-08-222015-09-07EloiseRosen3RightBurning man predictions: I will get at least 1 bug bite.
1324772015-08-222015-10-20kallman1WrongI will complete all the little home renovation tasks on my list before my roommate returns in October.
1324782015-08-222015-10-20kallman1RightI will complete most of the rennovation tasks before my roommate returns in october (ie >75%)
1325132015-08-232015-09-18Tapetum-Lucidum3RightThe VIX index will go above 32 before September 18th, 2015.
1328122015-08-242015-08-24reubensandwich1WrongI will do enough tomorrow morning before going to work.
1332072015-08-252050-01-01btrettel1Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050
1334012015-08-252015-08-25reubensandwich1WrongI will finish updates based on yesterday's review before 3.
1334022015-08-252015-08-25reubensandwich1RightI will read a chapter before dinner.
1334152015-08-252016-02-02Jayson Virissimo7WrongBernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus.
1336282015-08-262021-01-01btrettel4US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020
1336292015-08-262031-01-01btrettel3US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030
1336332015-08-272042-01-01JoshuaZ1By January 1, 2042, proven that at least 9/10ths of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the real line (proportionally).
1336342015-08-272036-01-01JoshuaZ1By January 1, 2036, shown that at least the first 10^15 non-trivial zeros of the Riemann Zeta function obey the Riemann hypothesis (that is lie on the s= 1/2 line)
1336452015-08-272035-01-01JoshuaZ3By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered.
1337622015-08-272015-08-28reubensandwich1WrongMy pull will be merged today.
1337632015-08-272015-08-28reubensandwich1WrongMy older pull will be merged today.
1337642015-08-272015-08-29reubensandwich2WrongI will have a draft of the updated analytics available by the end of the week.
1338492015-08-272016-04-16_W_2RightValve will use the Reborn client for the Winter 2015 Dota 2 major tournament
1338502015-08-272016-06-16_W_2RightValve will use the Reborn client for the Spring 2016 Dota 2 major tournament
1338512015-08-272016-09-01_W_2RightValve will use the Reborn client for TI6
1347082015-08-302015-08-31reubensandwich1WrongI will finish this book before going to sleep tonight.
1349482015-08-312015-09-02reubensandwich1WithdrawnI will write additional regression tests for the module I need to refactor before the end of tuesday.
1349492015-08-312015-09-01reubensandwich1WrongI will have the analytics update ready tomorrow.
1352832015-09-012025-09-01Afforess2Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present.
1358632015-09-022015-09-02raehik1WrongThis final PB API test will work correctly
1359702015-09-032015-09-18taryneast1RightI will complete my 30day push-up challenge in the next 15 days (I have 15 days left)
1362842015-09-032016-01-01Jayson Virissimo3WrongI will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups before 2016.
1362852015-09-032016-01-01Jayson Virissimo2WrongI will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups and 1 set of 20 pulls up before 2016.
1362862015-09-032030-01-01btrettel1Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030
1362872015-09-032051-01-01btrettel3US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050
1380182015-09-072018-01-01WilliamKiely6WrongFrom today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video.
1380192015-09-072019-01-01WilliamKiely4WrongFrom today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video.
1380202015-09-072020-01-01WilliamKiely4WrongFrom today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video.
1380212015-09-072021-01-01WilliamKiely6WrongFrom today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video.
1380222015-09-072022-01-01WilliamKiely6WrongFrom today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video.
1380232015-09-072023-01-01WilliamKiely8WrongFrom today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video.
1380362015-09-072016-01-01WilliamKiely6WithdrawnFrom today until January 1st, 2016 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video.
1380372015-09-072020-01-01Legioona5WrongIn five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector).
1380712015-09-072073-01-01btrettel3The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073
1380722015-09-072024-04-09Idrinkitup1I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024.
1380732015-09-072017-11-01Idrinkitup3RightI will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017
1380742015-09-072050-01-01btrettel9A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050
1380752015-09-072017-01-01btrettel4WrongI will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01
1396032015-09-102016-01-01kuudes22WrongNorway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015.
1396042015-09-102016-01-01kuudes6WrongDenmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015.
1396052015-09-102016-01-01kuudes19WrongFinland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015.
1396062015-09-102016-01-01kuudes7WrongGermany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015.
1396072015-09-102016-01-01kuudes14WrongLuxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015.
1396082015-09-102016-01-01kuudes21WrongAny of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015.
1398582015-09-112015-09-11stephen2Obamacare will survive, but might get changed around the edges by court challenges.
1398812015-09-112015-09-11Caleb Withers1RightPrice for Air NZ to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $498 NZD as per Webjet)
1412062015-09-132016-12-25Raahul_Kumar3Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT.
1413182015-09-132015-09-23splorridge2RightJohn McDonnell to be the next UK Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer.
1413572015-09-132016-02-09KBVMD15WrongDonald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary.
1414462015-09-142016-12-31bshih2WrongJace, Vryn's Prodigy will be worth at least $50 by the end of 2016.
1421742015-09-152016-03-25Raahul_Kumar4RightBharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association.
1423452015-09-152016-01-15Porejide1More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation.
1423462015-09-152016-01-15Porejide1There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls.
1423472015-09-152016-01-15Porejide1WrongMy WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column.
1423702015-09-152016-01-15Porejide1WrongI will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results.
1423712015-09-152016-01-15Porejide1RightMy top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries.
1423722015-09-152016-01-15Porejide2If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment).
1424472015-09-162016-07-29JoshuaZ7Wrong2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary
1434472015-09-172050-01-01btrettel7Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050
1447962015-09-212015-10-21taryneast1WrongI will complete my next 30-day pushup challenge inside of 35 days
1447972015-09-212015-10-31taryneast2RightI will complete my expenses for the tax year before the end of October
1447982015-09-212015-09-30taryneast4WrongI will complete my expense for the tax year by the end of September
1447992015-09-212015-10-05taryneast2WrongI will complete my expense for the tax year in two weeks time
1452692015-09-212050-01-01btrettel8Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050
1452712015-09-212015-09-28marchdown2RightMy diabetic partner won't be hospitalized this week despite their intention.
1457982015-09-232016-01-16iajrz1RightMy total debt will be 500 USD lower than it is now.
1457992015-09-232016-01-16iajrz1WrongMy income will be 10% higher than it is now.
1458382015-09-232017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum4WrongBank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016.
1469172015-09-252016-01-01Josh Holland4RightI will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015
1469182015-09-252017-01-01Josh Holland3WrongPebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016
1470332015-09-252015-09-28JoshuaZ2RightThe average grade for the graph theory test for the math 101 students will be at least 75%.
1476212015-09-262015-09-27tstelzig4WrongSomebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years).
1478832015-09-272016-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014.
1478842015-09-272020-12-26Raahul_Kumar3Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh
1478872015-09-272017-12-31Raahul_Kumar2Major Atmospheric Cerenkov Experiment Telescope, the world's 2nd largest γ ray telescope will be completed in 2017
1479182015-09-272017-01-01JoshuaZ2RightThe US to have a population between 310 million and 334 million on January 1, 2017
1490792015-09-292016-11-16NathanMcKnight8WrongAll Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination.
1497302015-10-012015-10-31PseudonymousUser4WrongC9 will win worlds.
1497312015-10-012015-10-31PseudonymousUser4WrongFnatic will win worlds.
1497322015-10-012015-10-31PseudonymousUser4RightSKT1 will win worlds.
1497332015-10-012015-10-31PseudonymousUser5WrongOrigen will win worlds.
1497342015-10-012015-10-31PseudonymousUser1WithdrawnInvictus Gaming will win worlds.
1497352015-10-012015-10-31PseudonymousUser3WrongCLG will win worlds.
1497982015-10-012015-10-31PseudonymousUser4WrongOne of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds.
1500382015-10-022019-12-31Raahul_Kumar3WrongZhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020.
1501502015-10-022020-12-25Raahul_Kumar3Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020.
1514202015-10-062030-12-31Raahul_Kumar3Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030.
1514232015-10-062020-12-25Raahul_Kumar3It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement.
1514242015-10-062019-12-25Raahul_Kumar4001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years.
1519952015-10-072016-09-15JoshuaZ3WrongI will have at least two more papers published before September 15, 2016
1527162015-10-092015-10-09dhoe1WrongAngela Merkel to win peace Nobel price
1535662015-10-122016-12-31Raahul_Kumar5WrongBashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year.
1545802015-10-152016-10-15taryneast1WithdrawnNeumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage)
1545812015-10-152016-10-15taryneast1WithdrawnNeumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in)
1545822015-10-152016-10-15taryneast2WrongNeumann Space will be a resounding disaster (I'll lose a lot of money)
1545832015-10-152016-10-15taryneast2RightNeumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in)
1545842015-10-152016-10-15taryneast2WrongNeumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage)
1545852015-10-152016-10-15taryneast2WrongNeumann Space will be moderate failure (I'll make no money and lose my investment)
1548202015-10-162017-10-16rhiannon3Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos.
1548212015-10-162015-10-17RoryS2RightI will have sex with someone I know tonight
1548222015-10-162015-10-17RoryS2WrongI will have sex with someone I don't know tonight
1548582015-10-162016-12-16memoriesofbutter2I will lack living funds for at least one month next year.
1548592015-10-162015-11-30memoriesofbutter4WrongReduce food costs by $100 next month.
1548602015-10-162016-04-30memoriesofbutter1I will acquire enough javascript knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project.
1548612015-10-162016-08-16memoriesofbutter1I will acquire enough python knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project.
1548622015-10-162016-04-16memoriesofbutter1I will learn enough perspective to improve my drawing.
1548632015-10-162016-04-16memoriesofbutter1I will complete Anki reviews every week until April.
1548642015-10-162015-11-16memoriesofbutter2RightI will master peg method.
1548652015-10-162015-11-30memoriesofbutter3WithdrawnIncreased potassium will correlate with decreased muscular soreness.
1548662015-10-162015-12-12memoriesofbutter2WrongThe DRACO Indiegogo campaign will reach 100,000.
1548882015-10-162015-12-16memoriesofbutter1Score at least 150 on a PLSAT
1548892015-10-162016-07-16memoriesofbutter2Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship.
1548902015-10-162015-12-16memoriesofbutter1RightI will be less surprised when encountering the illusion of transparency.
1550502015-10-172029-12-31Raahul_Kumar2Brasil will reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels.
1550862015-10-172015-12-25Raahul_Kumar3RightZhongguo's wind power capacity will hit 120 gigawatts
1554682015-10-182015-10-19JoshuaZ1RightAverage for 463 midterm will be at least 35 out of 60.
1554692015-10-182015-10-19JoshuaZ1Right463 midterm average will be at least 25 out of 60.
1554702015-10-182015-10-19JoshuaZ1Right463 midterm average will be at least 15 out of 60
1554712015-10-182015-10-19JoshuaZ1Wrong463 midterm average will be at least 45 out of 60.
1554882015-10-182032-07-16SmoothPorcupine8A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.
1566052015-10-222017-01-01akrasib1At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system using a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2016. A case started before 2017, but finished in the year 2017 counts as well.
1566152015-10-222016-01-01akrasib3RightThe @VegAssist Twitter bot will have at least 60 followers by the end of 2015.
1571202015-10-232015-10-26JoshuaZ3RightThe average for the 1 PM math 101 class will be higher than that for the 10 AM.
1576402015-10-252015-10-29argothiel6WrongCoalition for the Renewal of the Republic - Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland
1576412015-10-252015-10-28argothiel7RightWe will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier
1584002015-10-282025-01-01quanticle4The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars).
1584792015-10-282015-10-28Rory O’Kane1RightRay lives in New York.
1584802015-10-282015-10-28Rory O’Kane1RightRay has read at least five fanfiction stories in his life.
1584872015-10-282015-10-28Ray1WrongI will have more than 12 non-useless ideas.
1584972015-10-282015-10-28Rory O’Kane1WrongA jellyfish has zero neurons.
1587912015-10-282015-11-15danielfilan3WrongI will get full marks in today's finance programming quiz.
1600462015-11-012017-08-01Idrinkitup2WrongI bet that when I get done with taking the PE, traveling around the world for ~14 months, I'll get a job in web development in Raleigh and invest in rental properties and hang out with Jay.
1600472015-11-012016-09-10Idrinkitup1WrongI will go to Burning Man this year.
1600852015-11-012017-01-15Idrinkitup1WrongI will be ILR Level 2 proficient in Spanish after my time in Spain.
1616422015-11-042015-11-04RoryS1WrongMy money will have gone through when I check tonight
1617182015-11-052016-01-01danielfilan5WrongThe list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed.
1617192015-11-052018-11-01danielfilan13WrongEnglish Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction
1623402015-11-072016-01-07jdmeagher3WrongThe Fed won't raise the rate in 2015
1634342015-11-092015-12-16bruh2I think I will get an A in geosci
1643682015-11-112016-01-01Idrinkitup2RightI can sell my car within 2 weeks for $3k
1643912015-11-112016-02-03timujin2WrongWinter Steam sale will have a discount of at least 20% on Fallout 4.
1647002015-11-122015-12-26danielfilan5WrongI will receieve "Reasons and Persons" and "On What Matters" by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year.
1649202015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland4WrongNakamura will win the London Chess Classic
1649212015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland3WrongAronian will win the London Chess Classic
1649222015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland2RightCarlsen will win the London Chess Classic
1649252015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland6WrongAnand will win the London Chess Classic
1649262015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland4WrongVachier-Lagrave will win the London Chess Classic
1649272015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland2WrongCaruana will win the London Chess Classic
1649302015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland1WithdrawnHammer will win the London Chess Classic
1649312015-11-122015-12-13Josh Holland2WithdrawnSo will win the London Chess Classic
1649322015-11-122017-01-01qznc6WrongIn 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car.
1649332015-11-122015-12-01qznc3WrongVolkswagen shares will be traded above 140€ in November
1649342015-11-122016-01-01qznc2Right@katyperry will have the most Twitter followers at the end of 2015
1649352015-11-122016-07-04qznc3RightJuno spacecraft sends images from Jupiter
1658022015-11-142015-12-20Majikkani_Hand1I think I will get all As or A-s on my courses this semester.
1658102015-11-142015-12-05Tapetum-Lucidum6WrongThe VIX index will go above 23 by December 4th.
1670472015-11-172016-01-01danielfilan4WrongI will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind.
1670482015-11-172015-12-20danielfilan1Right'Nail and Gear' will win the Hello Internet flag election.
1673422015-11-172015-12-15Lissy1RightI will earn my first degree with at least a 3.5 GPA in my major.
1678592015-11-192016-12-31Raahul_Kumar4WrongBharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 --Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG
1697792015-11-242045-01-01unexpectedEOF14The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.
1721692015-12-022020-12-30Raahul_Kumar1Bharat's middle class will reach 200 million by 2020.
1721702015-12-022030-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Bharat's middle class will reach 475 million by 2030.
1721712015-12-022026-12-25Raahul_Kumar1International Air Transport Association's (IATA) updated passenger growth forecast, predicts Bharat will displace Britain as the third-largest market by 2026.
1721722015-12-022020-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Bharat to be a $3.5 trillion economy by 2020: Sonal Varma, Nomura
1721732015-12-022020-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. --Julius Baer wealth report
1735082015-12-062016-12-31Raahul_Kumar1RBI estimates Bharat's current account deficit at 1.5% in FY16.
1740322015-12-072018-05-02Raahul_Kumar2Rural electrification: 18,452 villages are to be provided electricity in Bharat under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Jyoti Yojana by May 1, 2018.
1745612015-12-092016-12-31solipsist13WrongThe New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31
1745632015-12-092021-12-16Raahul_Kumar3Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021.
1745642015-12-092025-12-12Raahul_Kumar1Great Green Wall, a land restoration programme in the African Sahel over the next 10 years. Aims to restore more than 50 million hectares of land.
1749292015-12-102030-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Europe and the United States will be lagging well behind with 8% and 4% of STEM graduates by 2030 respectively --OECD
1749302015-12-102030-12-11Raahul_Kumar1By 2030, Zhongguo will have 27% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates
1749312015-12-102030-12-25Raahul_Kumar2By 2030, Bharat will have 23% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates.
1749322015-12-102030-12-25Raahul_Kumar2By 2030, USA will have 8% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates
1751922015-12-112016-01-01themusicgod11WrongUS Federal Reserve stuck near the 0 bound (say, <1.5% with no willingness to increase it further in the immediate future) by Jan 1, 2016 (see http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx )
1752152015-12-112017-01-02themusicgod12increased tuition in canada causes increased stress on professors (contributing cause) (2015)
1752162015-12-112017-01-08themusicgod11Higher pressure on unions due to higher pressure on professors in canada (in 2015.)
1752172015-12-112016-08-01themusicgod11Higher tuition in 2015 causes stress in students in canada
1752182015-12-112016-07-01themusicgod12In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada.
1752192015-12-112017-01-01themusicgod12WrongWar between india & pakistan 2015
1752202015-12-112016-01-01themusicgod17WrongGlobal thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016
1752212015-12-112017-01-08themusicgod11Wrongmore people globally will have cellphones than household electricity in 2015
1752882015-12-112016-01-16RoryS1WrongMy paper will be accepted for the Munich conference
1757722015-12-132016-01-06themusicgod19Rightweek of dec 22, the Central Bank of Turkey will meet, and do central-banky things.
1757732015-12-132016-09-01themusicgod11Right1.8%+ urban development growth in 2015 ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.GROW/countries?display=graph )
1757742015-12-132024-01-01themusicgod17US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023
1757752015-12-132016-06-01themusicgod11RightMaker culture grew in 2015, as measured by maker faire audience ( http://makerfaire.com/ / http://makerfaire.com/bay-area-2015/sponsors/ )
1757962015-12-132017-02-20themusicgod13RightNext President of the US will have to deal with(militarily or otherwise) Dalwa al Islamyya. It will still exist and be problematic by the time the next president assumes office.
1763222015-12-152048-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Bharat's HDI will be > 0.856 by 2048.
1763232015-12-152022-12-16Raahul_Kumar2The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022.
1763242015-12-152022-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will pass the World Bank in terms of loans(billions of dollars per year) made.
1763392015-12-162030-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2030 Wasting among under 3 children will be at 0%.
1763402015-12-162022-12-25Raahul_Kumar3By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%.
1763412015-12-162030-12-25Raahul_Kumar2By 2030 child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 7.4%.
1763422015-12-162038-12-25Raahul_Kumar4By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat.
1763432015-12-162019-01-01ChristianKl6WrongTheranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019
1763462015-12-162017-01-01ChristianKl4WrongTheranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2017
1763862015-12-172021-01-01JoshuaZ6At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.
1763872015-12-182016-08-22Raahul_Kumar3WrongZhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally.
1763892015-12-182016-08-22Raahul_Kumar3WrongBrasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall.
1763902015-12-182016-01-14kuudes2RightIn Spanish general elections 2015, PP will get most seats.
1763912015-12-182016-01-14kuudes1WrongIn Spanish general elections 2015, PSOE will gain most seats.
1763922015-12-182016-01-31kuudes3WrongThe Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has at least 2 parties.
1763932015-12-182016-01-31kuudes1WrongThe Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has only 1 party. (considering local variants of the same party or similar as same party)
1763972015-12-192016-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Bharat's National Highways to reach 150 000km in length from 100 000km today.
1763982015-12-192017-12-25Raahul_Kumar1RightBharat will be the 2nd largest smartphone market globally by 2017 -- Strategy Analytics, IDC.
1764032015-12-192019-11-16JoaoEira3WrongAntonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term
1764122015-12-212038-12-25Raahul_Kumar1By 2038 stunting for under 5 children will be under 7.8% globally.
1764132015-12-212050-12-25Raahul_Kumar2By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally.
1764142015-12-212038-12-25Raahul_Kumar1By 2038 less than 3.6% children under 5 will be underweight globally.
1764152015-12-212046-12-25Raahul_Kumar2By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally.
1764282015-12-242015-12-28memoriesofbutter1Gift from S is a fiction book.
1764292015-12-242015-12-28memoriesofbutter1Gift from S is a non-fiction book.
1764302015-12-242015-12-28memoriesofbutter1Gift from S is a sharp implement.
1764312015-12-242015-12-28memoriesofbutter2Gift from N is a kitchen appliance.
1764322015-12-242016-12-23Daniel Reeves1Rightcodeword: jxa
1764332015-12-242016-12-31quanticle1WrongResearch In Motion will either declare bankruptcy protection or will be acquired.
1764342015-12-242016-12-31quanticle2WrongThe Priv will be the last Blackberry branded phone released by Research in Motion as an independent entity.
1764352015-12-242017-01-01Madplatypus3Wrong75% of the population within Syria's currently recognized borders will be under the direct or indirect control of a single goverment by 2017.
1764362015-12-252024-01-01themusicgod19By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.
1764372015-12-252016-03-01ArturoGoosnargh3WrongPedro Sánchez will be the next President of the Government of Spain
1764382015-12-262016-01-01ioannes2WrongI will finish "Learn Python the Hard Way" by the end of 2015
1764392015-12-262015-12-31ioannes1RightI will sell my Subaru Forester before returning to the Bay Area
1764402015-12-262015-12-28ioannes1WrongI will submit my third DAND project by the end of the weekend.
1764412015-12-262015-12-27ioannes1RightI will write a blog post about "One Minute to Midnight" tomorrow.
1764422015-12-262016-02-01ioannes1WrongI will complete the DAND program by the end of January 2016.
1764432015-12-262016-01-12Raahul_Kumar2RightIraqi government will liberate Ramadi from Islamic State.
1764442015-12-262024-12-25Raahul_Kumar3The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated.
1764452015-12-262025-01-01JoshuaZ4Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025.
1764462015-12-282016-10-05PlacidPlatypus5RightI will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date.
1764492015-12-292016-01-28EloiseRosen4WrongSam's stolen phone will be recovered.
1764502015-12-292017-12-16Raahul_Kumar1RightIraqi government will liberate Mosul, their most important stronghold from Islamic State.
1764512015-12-302026-01-01PipFoweraker3At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026.
1764522015-12-302017-12-01JoshuaZ73RightDonald Trump to be the next US President.
1764722016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen2Right2016 predictions: I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album.
1764732016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Wrong2016 predictions: Sam will attend Burning Man.
1764742016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Wrong2016 predictions: I will attend Burning Man.
1764752016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Wrong2016 predictions: I will run a marathon.
1764762016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Wrong2016 predictions: We’ll buy a new car.
1764772016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen1Wrong2016 predictions: Sam will attend grad school.
1764782016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen1Right2016 predictions: I will go to the emergency room, for myself or someone else.
1764792016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen4Right2016 predictions: I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016.
1764802016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen1Right2016 predictions: Sam will post 5 or more blog posts.
1764812016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen2Right2016 predictions: I will post 5 or more blog posts.
1764822016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Wrong2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year.
1764832016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Wrong2016 predictions: I will be a vegan at the end of the year.
1764842016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen4Right2016 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year.
1764852016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen2Wrong2016 predictions: I will have >365 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook.
1764862016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen2Right2016 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook.
1764872016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen4Right2016 predictions: I will complete 3 or more Kaggle competitions.
1764882016-01-012017-01-01EloiseRosen3Right2016 predictions: I will complete 2 (or more) Kaggle competitions.
1764892016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Right2016 predictions: I will complete 1 (or more) Kaggle competitions.
1764902016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen4Right2016 predictions: I will end the year still living in the Boston area.
1764912016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Wrong2016 predictions: I will have a baby.
1764922016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen8Right2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly).
1764932016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Right2016 predictions: At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity.
1764942016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen9Wrong2016 predictions: World War III will happen.
1764962016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen16Right2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated.
1764972016-01-012016-12-31EloiseRosen3Right2016 predictions: I will end up being underconfident on my 2016 predictions.
1765092016-01-012016-01-14Raahul_Kumar16RightEbola epidemic has ended.
1765102016-01-012018-06-02JoshuaZ9WrongRey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker
1765112016-01-012018-06-02JoshuaZ7WrongRey is a Kenobi
1765122016-01-012018-06-02JoshuaZ10WrongRey is a child of Luke Skywalker
1765132016-01-012018-06-02JoshuaZ8WrongRey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy.
1765192016-01-022016-12-31Raahul_Kumar5Right2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began)
1765202016-01-022017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1RightThe Hyatt cyberattacks will not be definitively traced to nation-state actors before January 1st, 2017.
1765212016-01-022017-01-02Tapetum-Lucidum7WrongApple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017.
1765222016-01-022016-02-02Tapetum-Lucidum7WrongApple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016
1765232016-01-022017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum2The CBOE's stock price will go above $75 before January 1, 2017
1765242016-01-022016-02-01Tapetum-Lucidum1RightOculus Rift preorders will begin before January 31, 2016
1765252016-01-022016-04-01Tapetum-Lucidum6WrongI will purchase an Oculus Rift by March 30, 2016
1765262016-01-022016-01-21Tapetum-Lucidum1RightThe Energy Conversion Devices bankruptcy case will not conclude on January 20, 2016
1765272016-01-022017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1Wrong3D XPoint will be released by January 1, 2017
1765282016-01-022019-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum5WrongBrazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018.
1765292016-01-022017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum4RightFacebook's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017
1765302016-01-022017-01-02Tapetum-Lucidum2WrongGilead's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017
1765312016-01-022016-01-31Tapetum-Lucidum1WrongBlackstone's February 2016 dividend will be below $0.60 per share
1765322016-01-022017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum2FireEye's stock price will go above $25 before January 1, 2017
1765332016-01-022017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1WithdrawnI will figure out a way to implement the ETF arbitrage strategy so that dollar-weighted clearing time is < 2 days
1765342016-01-022017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1WithdrawnThe seafoam strategy has an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio > 1.5
1765352016-01-022018-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1WithdrawnI find a way to safely implement the LA strategy in small emerging markets by 2018
1765362016-01-022016-04-01Tapetum-Lucidum4RightThere is sufficient depth in the bid logs
1765372016-01-022016-01-15Tapetum-Lucidum1WithdrawnThe depth in the bid logs can be increased cheaply
1765402016-01-022017-01-01JoshuaZ1WrongBy January 1, 2017, Martin's proof that QMA[2] is in EXP will be repaired.
1765432016-01-022016-02-01dgray1WrongI will finish 2 projects this month
1765442016-01-022016-11-09taylorcp18WrongHillary Clinton will be elected president.
1765482016-01-032016-04-01RoryS4WrongI will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester
1765732016-01-032017-01-01JoshuaZ5WrongIndonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017
1765742016-01-042017-01-01bobpage8WrongBefore 2017, I will switch from Ubuntu back to Windows for most of my desktop computing
1765752016-01-042017-01-01bobpage1RightI will try some kind of VR HMD before 2017
1765762016-01-042017-01-01bobpage1WrongI will buy a VR HMD before 2017
1765772016-01-042017-01-01bobpage1RightI will play at least some of The Witness before 2017
1765782016-01-042017-01-01bobpage6WrongI will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016
1765792016-01-042017-01-01WilliamKiely5WrongI will read at least 36 books in 2016.
1765802016-01-042024-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 6.98% GDP growth rate for Bharat for 2015- 2024.
1765812016-01-042024-12-16Raahul_Kumar1Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.28% GDP growth rate for Zhongguo for 2015- 2024.
1765862016-01-042024-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024.
1765872016-01-042024-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024.
1765882016-01-042017-01-01WilliamKiely9WrongI will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004).
1765912016-01-042017-01-01bobpage2RightHTC will ship a desktop-PC VR HMD to the general public before 2017
1765982016-01-042016-06-01Tapetum-Lucidum6WrongStar Wars: The Force Awakens will gross above 2.8 Billion USD globally
1766062016-01-042016-03-01ioannes1RightI will get an interview for the job I applied for.
1766102016-01-052016-01-19Idrinkitup1WrongI will get approval letter to take PE within 2 weeks
1766112016-01-052016-12-02PlacidPlatypus2RightI will win the next game of chess I play with N
1766122016-01-052017-01-01EloiseRosen7WrongGivewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016.
1766212016-01-062017-12-25Raahul_Kumar7WrongUK will default on its debt.
1766222016-01-062017-12-25Raahul_Kumar7WrongFrance will default on its debt.
1766232016-01-062023-12-25Raahul_Kumar4USA will default on its debt.
1766242016-01-062016-12-16Raahul_Kumar9RightNo 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon.
1766332016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker4The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship.
1766342016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker5The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship.
1766352016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker5The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship.
1766362016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker4The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship.
1766372016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker7The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.
1766382016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker6The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship.
1766392016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker3The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship.
1766402016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker3The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship.
1766412016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker4The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship.
1766422016-01-062045-01-01PipFoweraker4The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes.
1766432016-01-062016-02-10bobpage3RightI will not watch any more of The Expanse before 2016-02-09
1766442016-01-072026-01-01PipFoweraker2Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025.
1766452016-01-072017-10-16phreeza4RightAngela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany
1766482016-01-072016-12-25Raahul_Kumar1WrongBharat real gdp growth rate at 7.8 % in 2016
1766492016-01-072017-12-25Raahul_Kumar1WrongBharat real gdp growth rate at 8 % in 2017
1766502016-01-072017-01-01Afforess4WrongChina's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD
1766512016-01-072017-01-01Afforess10RightBitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016
1766522016-01-072021-12-16coyotespike6By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.
1766882016-01-082016-07-18bobpage2Withdrawn[deleted] Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz
1766892016-01-082016-07-18bobpage10WrongDonald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.)
1766902016-01-082016-01-15NathanMcKnight6WrongMalheur insurgency to be resolved within a week.
1766912016-01-082016-01-31NathanMcKnight6WrongMalheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month.
1766922016-01-082026-12-31jasticE18By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.
1766932016-01-092016-12-25Raahul_Kumar3WrongThe FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak.
1766942016-01-092020-01-01bobpage5WrongJoaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020
1766952016-01-092016-12-25Raahul_Kumar3WrongBear Market in the USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to experience at least 20% decline from peak in 2015.
1766982016-01-102016-01-11Jach1WrongTen wins in Haylee (3p) v. Ten (1p) on OGS
1766992016-01-102017-01-01Jach2RightI am still at SFDC in one year
1767002016-01-102019-01-01Jach2RightI am still at SFDC in 3 years
1767012016-01-102021-01-01Jach2I am still at SFDC in 5 years
1767042016-01-102016-01-12Tapetum-Lucidum1RightThe Shanghai Composite will fall by more than 2% on Monday, January 11, 2016.
1767142016-01-112017-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1WrongBlackstone's stock price will go below $20 before January 1, 2017
1767152016-01-112016-02-01Tapetum-Lucidum16WrongThe VIX index will go above 30 before February 1, 2016
1767162016-01-112016-04-01Tapetum-Lucidum13WrongThe VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016
1767172016-01-112017-01-12Tapetum-Lucidum1WrongThe S&P 500 will fall by more than 1% on January 11, 2016
1767182016-01-112016-01-16Tapetum-Lucidum4RightThe Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week
1767192016-01-112017-01-01Houshalter21RightComputers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017
1767202016-01-112016-07-01mortehu9RightSpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016
1767232016-01-112016-02-25JoshuaZ8WrongDonald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada).
1767392016-01-132016-01-14Raahul_Kumar2WrongWhy Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 and earn $610 billion revenue --Eric Jackson, Forbes
1767402016-01-132016-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Wrong Apple’s stock will be at least $138.52 according to 32 analysts.
1767412016-01-132017-01-01chinawillfall20WrongThe Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017.
1767422016-01-132018-01-01chinawillfall21WrongChina will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017
1767432016-01-132016-01-16EloiseRosen2WrongJ responds before Friday.
1767442016-01-132016-01-16EloiseRosen1WrongJ agrees to call.
1767452016-01-132016-12-01danielfilan3WrongI am still using Complice on December 1 2016.
1767522016-01-132017-01-01themusicgod12Wrongspacex falcon heavy rocket launch carrying lightsail-1 or 2 or 3 to space will be successful in 2016
1767562016-01-142016-12-16Raahul_Kumar2WrongUSA real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 2.30%.
1767572016-01-142016-01-15bobpage1RightI will not talk on freenode until 2016-01-15 12:00 UTC
1767582016-01-142016-01-15timujin2WrongAll three of us will get a passing grade on tomorrow's exam
1767702016-01-152016-07-01kuudes9WrongSweden declares war against Finland
1767712016-01-152016-07-01kuudes11WrongSweden declares war against Norway
1767722016-01-152016-07-01kuudes8WrongSweden declares war against Denmark
1767732016-01-152016-07-01kuudes8WrongSweden declares war against Iceland
1767742016-01-152016-07-01kuudes8WrongSweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council
1767752016-01-152016-07-01kuudes11WrongSweden declares war against any EU member state
1767762016-01-152016-07-01kuudes19WrongAny EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war)
1767772016-01-152016-02-01danielfilan2WrongHillary Clinton's average share in Democratic presidential primary polling shall be at least 55.0%, rounded to the first decimal, at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2016, according to RealClearPolitics.com
1767782016-01-152016-02-02danielfilan3WrongMarco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa.
1767792016-01-152016-02-02danielfilan8WrongDonald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa
1767802016-01-152016-02-02danielfilan10RightTed Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa
1767812016-01-152016-02-10danielfilan9RightDonald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire.
1767822016-01-152016-02-10danielfilan5WrongTed Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire.
1767832016-01-152016-02-10danielfilan3WrongMarco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire
1767902016-01-162016-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will get A*A*A at A2
1767912016-01-162016-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will get above 1, 1 in STEP
1767922016-01-162016-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will get 1, 1 in STEP
1767932016-01-162016-09-16sweeneyrod1RightI will get 1, 2 in STEP
1767942016-01-162016-09-16sweeneyrod1RightI will get into Cambridge
1767952016-01-162016-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongI will get into Cambridge for CompSci without Maths
1767962016-01-162016-09-16sweeneyrod1WrongJP and MG.
1767972016-01-162017-01-16sweeneyrod6WrongMajor (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year.
1767982016-01-162017-01-16sweeneyrod7WrongMajor (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the UK this year.
1767992016-01-162017-01-16sweeneyrod9WrongMajor (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year.
1768002016-01-162021-01-16sweeneyrod8North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.
1768012016-01-162021-01-16sweeneyrod15Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.
1768022016-01-162016-03-16sweeneyrod1WrongI get 3 A*'s in mocks.
1768032016-01-162016-03-16sweeneyrod1WrongI get A*A*A in mocks.
1768092016-01-172017-01-18Raahul_Kumar11WrongUS recession in 2016.
1768102016-01-172040-06-24Raahul_Kumar6Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank
1768112016-01-172016-02-01Tapetum-Lucidum1RightBaidu's stock price will go below 160 before February 1, 2016
1768122016-01-172016-02-01Tapetum-Lucidum1RightMicron's stock will go below 10.50 before February 1, 2016
1768192016-01-182016-03-05JoshuaZ2RightI will be out of my sling in 6 weeks.
1768202016-01-182016-02-28JoshuaZ2RightI will be out of my sling in 5 weeks.
1768212016-01-182016-02-21JoshuaZ1RightI will be out of my sling in four weeks.
1768222016-01-182016-07-18bobpage6WrongDonald Trump's pick for VP will be Martha McSally. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.)
1768232016-01-192016-02-01bobpage2RightJonathan Blow's The Witness will be released to the general public for at least one platform in January 2016
1768372016-01-202016-12-25Raahul_Kumar2RightUSA real GDP growth rate for 2016 will be under 2.4%
1768382016-01-202017-12-25Raahul_Kumar2WrongUS real GDP growth rate for 2017 will be under 2.2%
1768392016-01-202018-12-25Raahul_Kumar3WrongUS real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0%
1768402016-01-202016-07-28NobodySpecial6RightHillary will win the democratic nomination.
1768412016-01-202016-01-24EloiseRosen3WrongSam gets me sick.
1768502016-01-202016-12-07RoryS3WrongI will have a higher average score in math modules than essay modules this year
1768592016-01-212016-12-16Raahul_Kumar4RightGlobal bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak)
1768602016-01-212017-01-01splorridge2RightC will learn how to solve a Rubik's cube this year.
1768612016-01-212017-01-01splorridge1WrongC will work out how to solve a Rubik's cube this year.
1768832016-01-242016-11-09bobpage10WrongMichael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect
1768942016-01-242026-01-01kuudes4RightUnsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year.
1768952016-01-242016-07-01themusicgod15RightUbuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure
1768962016-01-242016-09-30themusicgod15RightSummer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016
1769122016-01-252016-01-26Helldalgo421WithdrawnWill finish Managerial Accounting tasks within guessed amount of time (6 pomos)
1769212016-01-262017-01-01JoshuaZ8Right[2016] North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt.
1769222016-01-262017-01-01JoshuaZ7Wrong[2016] SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket:
1769252016-01-272016-10-01NathanMcKnight22Wrong2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio.
1769262016-01-272016-07-18NathanMcKnight6WrongBrokered convention.
1769272016-01-272016-07-01NathanMcKnight1WrongTrump sweeps first four primaries.
1769282016-01-272016-07-31NathanMcKnight6WrongThe last two candidates vying for GOP nomination will be Cruz and Rubio.
1769292016-01-272016-03-03NathanMcKnight12WrongRubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries.
1769592016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim3RightUS will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers
1769662016-01-282018-01-01davidmanheim14RightNo terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017
1769672016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim10RightNo terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016
1769682016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim7RightNorth Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt
1769692016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim4RightGreece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016
1769702016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim4RightIsrael will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state (Excluding the PA/Hamas, not excluding IS or Hezbollah) in 2016
1769712016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim5RightISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now
1769732016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim3RightBitcoin will end 2016 higher than $500
1769742016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim4WrongOil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel
1769752016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim6RightDow Jones Industrial Average will not fall > 10% over the course of 2016. (It will end above 15,434)
1769762016-01-282017-03-01davidmanheim4RightUS GDP growth in 2016 lower than in 2015
1769772016-01-282017-03-01davidmanheim1RightUS unemployment to be lower at end of 2016 than beginning
1769782016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim7WrongSpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km)
1769792016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim1RightNo major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world in 2016
1769802016-01-282017-01-01davidmanheim1RightNo major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2016
1769812016-01-282016-05-01themusicgod125WrongLee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game
1769822016-01-282016-04-01Jach76RightAlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March
1769922016-01-292020-12-25Raahul_Kumar4Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production.
1769942016-01-292016-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Bharat will be ranked 9th(from 11th) in the world for solar photovoltaic total capacity in 2015.
1769952016-01-302017-01-30Raahul_Kumar1WrongBanco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2016 real economic growth rate will be -2.99%.
1769962016-01-302018-01-31Raahul_Kumar1WrongBanco Central do Brasil (BACEN) - Brasil's 2017 real economic growth rate will be 0.87%.
1770032016-01-302016-11-09bobpage10WrongNo 2016 Presidential candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes
1770042016-01-302017-01-01bobpage2WrongOVH will set up a west coast (North America) datacenter before 2017 and rent servers/VPSes in it to the general public
1770052016-01-302016-11-09bobpage19WrongThe FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election
1770062016-01-302016-11-09bobpage8WrongCarly Fiorina will be the next President-elect
1770142016-01-312019-01-01themusicgod14WrongTPP ratified in Canada
1770152016-01-312016-02-29Michael Dickens9RightLeo wins an Academy Award.
1770192016-02-012016-07-18bobpage7WrongDonald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.)
1770202016-02-012016-02-08ioannes1WrongI will submit the 3rd DAND project by the end of next weekend
1770212016-02-012016-02-15ioannes1WrongI will submit the fourth DAND project by EOD 2/14
1770222016-02-012016-02-22ioannes1WrongI will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/21
1770232016-02-012016-02-29ioannes1WithdrawnI will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/28
1770242016-02-012016-02-29ioannes1WrongI will submit the sixth DAND project by EOD 2/28
1770252016-02-012016-03-14ioannes1WrongI will submit the 7th DAND project by EOD 3/13
1770272016-02-012016-04-01ioannes1RightI will go to Colorado in March 2016
1770412016-02-022016-03-30lavalamp34WrongAlphaGo wins 5-0 in march
1770552016-02-032016-02-22Dylan.Kurda19502008321: Multifocal GBM
1770562016-02-032016-02-22Dylan.Kurda19771039943: ABC
1770572016-02-032022-01-01NathanMcKnight7MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years.
1770582016-02-032037-01-01NathanMcKnight5MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years.
1770592016-02-032017-01-01sdr2WrongLesswrong.com will have major ( >3 pages' design structure) changes implemented, and live by the end of 2016
1770602016-02-032017-06-01sdr1WrongConditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to drop above 100K within 6 months of launch.
1770612016-02-032017-06-01sdr1WrongConditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to be below 30K at least once within 6 months of launch.
1770662016-02-042016-06-01unexpectedEOF1RightNo portion of Mo-Pac express lanes will be completed and accepting traffic before June 1st, 2016.
1770672016-02-042018-01-01unexpectedEOF2WrongIn the wake of the listeria outbreaks, at least one Blue Bell Creameries employee will face criminal charges by 2018
1770682016-02-042023-01-01unexpectedEOF8Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023
1770692016-02-042021-12-25Raahul_Kumar3Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels.
1770722016-02-042025-12-25Raahul_Kumar1ExxonMobil has predicted that global demand for coal will peak in about 2025
1770932016-02-052016-11-01Shevek1WithdrawnAngela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt
1770942016-02-052017-11-01Shevek2RightAngela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten regulären Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt
1771092016-02-072020-01-01kuudes16WrongVladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction.
1771102016-02-072018-06-01gwern13WrongA CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017
1771112016-02-072021-06-01gwern18A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020
1771142016-02-072019-06-01gwern13RightA CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018
1771152016-02-072020-06-01gwern8RightA CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019
1771212016-02-082018-01-01bobpage2WrongThere will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2018
1771312016-02-092020-01-01bobpage5WrongBefore 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project
1771342016-02-092020-01-01Houshalter13WrongWhen DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020.
1771352016-02-092016-12-02RoryS1WithdrawnThe money will be in my account on the scheduled date
1771362016-02-102016-02-10EloiseRosen1Wrongxgboost will be next best
1771372016-02-102016-03-01EloiseRosen3WrongSomerville will declare another snow emergency before March 1.
1771382016-02-102016-12-25Raahul_Kumar2RightGravitational waves will be detected this year.
1771432016-02-102016-02-17danielfilan1RightI will get a cold in the next week.
1771702016-02-112020-05-10Waring12WrongThe British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date)
1772092016-02-132018-12-25Raahul_Kumar5WrongBharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018.
1772102016-02-132025-01-20jesselevine10Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration.
1772142016-02-132016-02-21silacoid8WrongBernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary
1772152016-02-132017-01-01Temeraire12RightNorth Korea’s government will survive the year [2016] without large civil war/revolt.
1772162016-02-132050-01-01JoshuaZ6A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon.
1772172016-02-142017-01-01JoshuaZ33WrongObama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment.
1772182016-02-142021-01-01unexpectedEOF3Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021.
1772192016-02-142017-02-14NathanMcKnight5WrongJane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia.
1772202016-02-142030-12-25Raahul_Kumar10World will eliminate malaria by 2030.
1772212016-02-142030-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Bharat will eliminate malaria by 2030.
1772252016-02-142017-01-01splorridge6WrongThere will be at least two more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772262016-02-142017-01-01splorridge5WrongThere will be at least three more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772272016-02-142017-01-01splorridge5WrongThere will be at least four more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772282016-02-142017-01-01splorridge5WrongThere will be at least five more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772292016-02-142017-01-01splorridge6WrongThere will be at least six more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772302016-02-142017-01-01splorridge6WrongThere will be at least seven more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772312016-02-142017-01-01splorridge5WrongThere will be at least eight more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772322016-02-142017-01-01splorridge6WrongThere will be at least nine more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016
1772372016-02-142016-02-15EloiseRosen4RightToday there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy.
1772412016-02-142016-03-17equivrel-markets6WrongFederal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to below zero levels (i.e. a range that includes below zero levels) at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting.
1772422016-02-142017-01-01equivrel-markets3WrongFederal Reserve cuts the Federal Funds rate at least once in 2016.
1772432016-02-142017-01-01equivrel-markets6WrongThe S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016.
1772442016-02-142017-01-01equivrel-markets4WrongThe S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016.
1772452016-02-142017-01-01equivrel-markets4WrongThe S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016.
1772462016-02-142017-01-01equivrel-markets3WrongThe S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016.
1772472016-02-142025-01-01bobpage8Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025
1772582016-02-162022-12-25Raahul_Kumar4Italy will default on its debt by 2022.
1772592016-02-162022-12-25Raahul_Kumar3Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022.
1772602016-02-162016-02-17SmartArse2RightMy husband, while sitting on PredictionBook, will ask me yet again what I think the odds are for Hilary or Bernie or Trump, even though he just asked me yesterday.
1772732016-02-172016-06-16jesselevine11WrongNo single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue.
1772742016-02-172017-02-17jesselevine3WrongThe price of a US postage stamp (1-ounce letter) will not increase within the next year.
1772752016-02-172017-01-01davidmanheim6Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil
1773012016-02-182017-12-25Raahul_Kumar4WrongLand a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize --Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat
1773232016-02-202016-02-21splorridge2WrongD will travel by car with A tomorrow.
1773242016-02-202016-02-21splorridge1WrongD or A will leave something behind.
1773252016-02-202016-09-01Faceh9WrongBernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination.
1773282016-02-212016-02-22splorridge1RightI will give D some food tonight.
1773292016-02-212016-04-21jesselevine4WrongMichael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate.
1773302016-02-212016-11-09jesselevine13WrongMichael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election.
1773312016-02-212046-02-21arpanagarawal9WrongI will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now
1773322016-02-212016-03-21Sahil5RightI will not have eaten any meat intentionally before a month from now.
1773512016-02-222020-06-01Waring2WithdrawnConditional on no Brexit, George Osborne will be the next British Prime Minister
1773522016-02-222016-06-24jesselevine1WithdrawnBritain separates from the EU (prediction based on the upcoming vote)
1773532016-02-222016-06-01jesselevine9RightBitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD)
1773542016-02-222016-04-01jesselevine1RightCeasefire, "truce", OR no-fly zone imposed in full or in part, in or within an area in Syria or Iraq before April 1, 2016
1773552016-02-222017-01-01jesselevine10WrongKim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end.
1773562016-02-222016-12-31jesselevine1WrongDestin Sandlin (host of Smarter Every Day) hired by NASA
1773572016-02-222020-01-01jesselevine1WrongOne or more current SSRI or SNRI (includes newer generation serotonergics like Viibrid) becomes under investigation by FDA for misrepresentation of clinical trial results before 2020.
1773582016-02-222017-01-01themusicgod13WrongRussian Federation < 100 B Foreign Exchange reserves
1773612016-02-222017-01-01bobpage6Right@paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017
1773622016-02-222017-01-01bobpage12Wrong@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017
1773632016-02-222017-01-01themusicgod11RightAnother 3+/-1 M$ goes into copyright board of canada in 2016
1773682016-02-232016-11-30amexfireplace6WrongA terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 - possibly within 90d.
1774052016-02-242016-06-07LawrenceNewport15RightTrump will win the Republican nomination
1774302016-02-262016-06-14LawrenceNewport29WrongSanders will win the Democratic nomination
1774312016-02-262016-03-06raehik1WrongEvil Geniuses will win the Dota 2 Shanghai Major
1774362016-02-272016-04-15JoshuaZ4WrongAt least one person will take offense to one of our 22nd century protest signs.
1774412016-02-282016-03-04Sniffnoy3WrongThe Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000, but David Sirlin will throw in the white and purple tokens anyway.
1774442016-02-282016-05-24azax11WrongI will run a 25:00 5k (treadmill) on or before May 24, 2016.
1774532016-02-292026-02-28Sniffnoy1OOTS: The Monster in the Darkness is an Uvuudaum.
1774542016-02-292016-03-03silacoid3WrongKasich will drop out of the republican primary race before March 3rd
1774602016-02-292266-01-01themusicgod11Not only does 9th planet exist, but 10th planet hiding in the Kuiper belt somewhere too
1774632016-02-292016-04-19NathanMcKnight7WrongBernie will drop out before New York primary.
1774642016-02-292016-06-07NathanMcKnight10WrongBernie will drop out before California primary.
1774652016-02-292016-06-14NathanMcKnight5RightBernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary.
1774662016-02-292016-11-10HonoreDB7WrongExactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
1774682016-02-292016-11-10HonoreDB6RightExactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
1774812016-03-022017-01-01themusicgod12Wrong3 billion Android users at any point in 2016
1774822016-03-022017-01-01themusicgod13Wrong2016 global climate change reaches +10 degrees Celsius relative to 1996
1774902016-03-022017-01-01themusicgod11Real ID act goes into phase iv, DHS REALID system forces all states to participate or bans citizens of them from international travel
1774932016-03-022017-06-01themusicgod12WrongGender gap in software industry worse in 2016 than 2009.
1774942016-03-022017-01-01themusicgod13WrongIntel releases new socket standard/type in 2016
1774952016-03-022017-03-01themusicgod12Right> 0.77% of global energy produced from solar (thermal or electricity both count)
1774982016-03-022017-01-01themusicgod11RightBitcoin network survives to block halving.
1774992016-03-022016-12-01NathanMcKnight11WrongTrump selects Christie as his running mate.
1775002016-03-022016-12-01NathanMcKnight7WrongChristie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election.
1775012016-03-022017-01-01NathanMcKnight2WrongGreater than 15% of Republicans vote for Clinton or third party.
1775022016-03-032017-01-01themusicgod11WrongHTML5.1 goes to PR/Rec status at w3c, complete with DRM/EME
1775032016-03-032017-01-01themusicgod11Wronghttps://classic.ripplepay.com does does not survive 2016
1775042016-03-032017-01-01themusicgod12RightThis prediction will be judged "Wrong".
1775052016-03-032020-12-25Raahul_Kumar5Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020.
1775062016-03-032020-12-25Raahul_Kumar3Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020.
1775072016-03-032016-12-31ghabs1CFAR will report over 1000 alumni by the end of 2016.
1775082016-03-032017-01-01themusicgod16WrongUS mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US
1775092016-03-032018-01-01themusicgod11On Jan 1, 2017 there will be at most 3871377.25 bitcoin in addresses that have not been dormant for over a year
1775132016-03-042016-03-05bobpage1RightOn Friday I will find the HTC Vive's low resolution significantly distracting
1775162016-03-042016-08-01waveman1WrongI will get to 67kg by 1 August 2016
1775172016-03-042017-01-01waveman3WrongI will still be below 68lg at the end of 2016
1775182016-03-042018-01-01waveman2WrongI will still be below 68kg at the end of 2017
1775192016-03-042019-01-01waveman2WrongI will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018
1775202016-03-042017-01-01waveman4WrongI will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2016. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations.
1775212016-03-042018-01-01waveman3RightI will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2017. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations.
1775272016-03-052020-01-01NathanMcKnight9WrongTrump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party.
1775282016-03-052017-01-01leo_gri1WrongSalmane ben Abdelaziz al-Saoud (Arabie Saoudite) will lose power before the end of 2016
1775292016-03-052017-01-01leo_gri1WrongNicolas Maduro will lose power before the end of 2016
1775302016-03-052017-01-01leo_gri4RightDilma Roussef will lose power before the end of 2016
1775312016-03-052017-01-01leo_gri1WrongBouteflika will lose power before the end of 2016
1775322016-03-052017-01-01NathanMcKnight3Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law.
1775332016-03-052017-01-01NathanMcKnight2Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split.
1775342016-03-052017-01-01NathanMcKnight2Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split.
1775352016-03-052016-03-11Ludgar1RightI am going to be called for an interview for a job
1775382016-03-062029-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 --Bloomberg New Energy Finance
1775392016-03-062030-12-25Raahul_Kumar155% of CO² emitted in 2030 will be produced by states that have reached peak levels --World Resources Institute
1775402016-03-062035-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below 2 °C.
1775412016-03-062040-12-25Raahul_Kumar2Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase.
1775422016-03-062016-12-16Raahul_Kumar5WrongBoko Haram will be defeated this year.
1775432016-03-062017-01-01leo_gri2WrongTsipras will lose power before the end of 2016
1775442016-03-062017-01-01leo_gri5WrongBachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016
1775472016-03-072017-01-01themusicgod14WrongFull (infant) human mind provably fully simulatable on any amount of extant hardware
1775482016-03-072017-01-01themusicgod11WrongThere will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can go to specific parts of the house and clean those parts.
1775492016-03-072025-01-01Temeraire2UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world.
1775502016-03-072025-01-01Temeraire2UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with
1775512016-03-072025-01-01Temeraire3UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research)
1775522016-03-072025-01-01Temeraire3Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way - e.g. it maybe is not symmetric.
1775532016-03-072017-01-01Temeraire1RightI will not have the new chair permanently taken away from me during 2016
1775562016-03-082018-01-01artir3RightSnokes is not Darth Plegueia
1775572016-03-082020-01-01jesselevine1>0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020)
1775582016-03-082016-11-16NathanMcKnight13WrongRomney runs third party.
1775592016-03-082016-11-16NathanMcKnight15WrongRomney is GOP nominee.
1775602016-03-082016-07-03Temeraire1RightThe Balseraphs will not succeed in landing a single unit on the Amurite home continent.
1775652016-03-082017-01-01Chri1RightI will have at least 365 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016
1775742016-03-092016-07-22sole2100018RightDonald Trump will win the Republican nomination
1775752016-03-092016-07-26sole2100030RightHillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination
1775812016-03-092025-12-25Raahul_Kumar1Bharat's millionaires,multi millionaires, UHNWI ($30 M+), centa-millionaires(100 M+), billionaires will at least double from 2015-2025. -- The Wealth Report,Knight Frank.
1775862016-03-102017-01-01jesselevine2RightObama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 55 or higher.
1775872016-03-102017-01-01jesselevine2WrongObama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 60 or higher.
1775912016-03-102016-03-15rhaps0dy1WithdrawnAlphaGo will win 5-0 against Lee Sedol
1775922016-03-102018-01-01c0rw117WrongNo human will win at Go again against a top AI
1775932016-03-102017-10-03RoryS11WrongI will not get SJS from modafinil
1775982016-03-112016-03-15earthbound019WrongAlphaGo will beat Lee Sodol in the three remaining matches of their initial 5.
1776082016-03-112018-01-01themusicgod115RightKe Jie loses to AlphaGo
1776092016-03-112017-12-16Raahul_Kumar9RightAlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie.
1776102016-03-112018-12-16Raahul_Kumar6WrongAlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games).
1776112016-03-112025-01-01danpop9By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold.
1776122016-03-112016-07-01themusicgod11RightI will acquire the 2 needed prerequisites to start work at my new job without incident
1776132016-03-112017-09-01themusicgod11RightAssuming I start the new job successfully, after one year from the first day of work I will find it a more rewarding use of my life than my old contracting job, well worth quitting for
1776182016-03-112016-03-12splorridge1WrongD and I will walk to Ely tonight
1776212016-03-122018-12-31artir4WrongThere will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018.
1776222016-03-122016-06-01themusicgod11WrongNo snow in may in #tbay
1776232016-03-122016-04-01themusicgod11Rightno more blizzards in march in #tbay
1776242016-03-122016-11-01themusicgod13RightVancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016
1776572016-03-152016-03-16waveman5WrongLee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo
1776602016-03-152016-03-16jesselevine3WrongDonald Trump sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15)
1776632016-03-162016-03-23facetofacestudy3WrongIs Any one try online class with www.facetofacestudy.com ??
1776692016-03-162018-01-01themusicgod13WrongWarren Buffet will claim that the "weapons of financial mass destruction" have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide.
1776702016-03-162018-01-01themusicgod13RightI will replace my laptop in 2017.
1776712016-03-162018-01-01themusicgod11Peter Todd will agree Ripple Labs has released all necessary source code, including all validator code, to be "Open Source"
1776722016-03-162016-06-01themusicgod11RightSask Party Majority Government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016
1776732016-03-162016-06-01themusicgod11WrongSask Party Minority in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016
1776742016-03-162016-06-01themusicgod11WrongNDP full wipe out in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016
1776752016-03-162016-06-01themusicgod11WrongNDP minority government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016
1776762016-03-162016-06-01themusicgod11WrongLiberal MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016
1776772016-03-162016-06-01themusicgod11WrongGreen Party MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016
1776782016-03-172016-03-18Raahul_Kumar2RightSoyuz TMA-20M spacecraft carrying the International Space Station crew of cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Oleg Skripochka and astronaut Jeffrey Williams will reach ISS.
1776792016-03-172100-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1RightSomeone else will judge the outcome of this prediction
1776802016-03-172017-04-01themusicgod12WrongMy upcoming train trip is delayed over 6.5 hours.
1776812016-03-172016-04-16themusicgod12RightAt least one of my Inter-Library Loan requests come in while I'm out of the city travelling
1776872016-03-192041-12-25Raahul_Kumar3USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt --Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University.
1776882016-03-192040-12-25Raahul_Kumar1European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually.
1776922016-03-202017-01-01EloiseRosen1RightOn Jan 1, 2017 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2016.)
1776942016-03-202019-01-01EloiseRosen1RightOn Jan 1, 2019 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2018.)
1776962016-03-202019-12-31EloiseRosen15WrongIn 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot.
1776972016-03-202018-01-01themusicgod11Fundamental Change to Debian Release Structure: No Longer Offers Both Stable & Testing Releases
1776982016-03-202018-01-01themusicgod11RightDebian Stretch goes Stable
1776992016-03-202018-01-01daniel74f2WrongDilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018
1777062016-03-212016-12-16NathanMcKnight2WrongTrump takes fewer electoral votes than Goldwater.
1777142016-03-222016-04-01ioannes1WrongI will submit my upcoming project by April 1, 2016
1777152016-03-222016-04-05ioannes1WithdrawnI submit my upcoming project by EOD Tuesday, 4/5
1777162016-03-222016-04-08ioannes1WrongI will submit my upcoming project by EOD Friday, 4/8
1777172016-03-222016-05-01ioannes1WrongI finish my nanodegree by the end of April 2016
1777182016-03-222016-05-16ioannes1WrongI finish my nanodegree program by EOD 5/15
1777192016-03-232017-03-23JoshuaZ1RightSydney from Grrlpower will get another level-up before March 22, 2017 (real time).
1777202016-03-232016-12-01JoshuaZ1WrongFalcon Heavy test flight by November 30, 2016
1777212016-03-232017-01-16JoshuaZ2WrongFalcon Heavy test flight by January 15, 2017
1777222016-03-232018-01-01JoshuaZ2WrongFalcon Heavy test flight by end of 2017
1777232016-03-232019-01-01JoshuaZ7WrongAI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019
1777262016-03-232018-01-16ioannes1RightGiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by December 2017
1777292016-03-232016-11-13jesselevine2Wrong2017 US Congress SENATE to be controlled by democrats.
1777302016-03-232020-01-01splorridge16WrongScotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES.
1777312016-03-232016-04-03JoshuaZ4WrongUMaine Machias will offer me a tenure track position before April 2.
1777322016-03-232016-04-03JoshuaZ3WrongUMaine Machias will offer me a non-tenure track lecture position before April 2.
1777332016-03-232016-05-28Andrew MacFie1WrongBarcelona wins 2016 Champions League
1777342016-03-232016-05-28Andrew MacFie5RightReal Madrid wins 2016 Champions League
1777352016-03-232016-05-28Andrew MacFie5WrongManchester City wins 2016 Champions League
1777362016-03-232016-05-28Andrew MacFie6WrongAtletico Madrid wins 2016 Champions League
1777372016-03-232016-05-28Andrew MacFie2WrongPSG wins 2016 Champions League
1777382016-03-232016-05-28Andrew MacFie1WrongBenfica wins 2016 Champions League
1777392016-03-232016-05-28Andrew MacFie2WrongWolfsburg wins 2016 Champions League
1777402016-03-232023-01-01JoshuaZ8AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023
1777412016-03-242016-05-24bobpage4WrongLambdaConf will uninvite Curtis Yarvin before the conference begins
1777422016-03-242016-11-08ren4WrongHillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016.
1777452016-03-242016-11-16NathanMcKnight4RightTrump names his running mate before GOP convention.
1777482016-03-252016-08-16jesselevine8RightNext Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack.
1777492016-03-252016-06-16jesselevine2WrongNext MacBook Pro release excludes 3.5mm headphone jack or becomes incorporated in a different IO port.
1777502016-03-252016-06-16jesselevine2RightApple makes significant changes to display technology of future iPhone (i.e. OLED, extends to edge of phone, different glass, Tupac hologram capability)
1777512016-03-252021-03-25jesselevine1A major fast food restaurant, or a 3rd-party company attempts drone delivery within 5 years. (Judgment right if available in more than one area)
1777522016-03-252017-03-25jesselevine5Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters.
1777532016-03-252023-01-01themusicgod15A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man
1777542016-03-252017-05-01bobpage2WrongBefore May 2017 there will be a sub-$1000 (USD, pre-tax/shipping) VR HMD with >= 2K pixels (either direction) per eye, shipping to at least some of the general public
1777602016-03-272016-07-16Raahul_Kumar3RightIRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched.
1777612016-03-272016-12-16Raahul_Kumar5WrongIraqi government will retake Mosul from Islamic State this year.
1777622016-03-272016-12-25Raahul_Kumar5WrongSyrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year.
1777892016-04-022016-04-02Qwonvo1WrongI will fall asleep in the wedding ceremony.
1777902016-04-022016-04-03Qwonvo1RightX will make <5 signs of anger this evening.
1777912016-04-022016-04-02Qwonvo1RightX will make >2 derogatory statements concerning religion.
1777992016-04-032017-01-01jesselevine10WrongTed Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end.
1778092016-04-042019-04-04Sniffnoy4Wrong"Skulk" will be an evergreen keyword in Magic: The Gathering within 3 years.
1778102016-04-042066-04-05two2thehead8Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.
1778142016-04-052016-04-20jesselevine8RightHillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016
1778152016-04-052016-04-20jesselevine3RightDonald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016
1778182016-04-062018-07-01themusicgod14WrongUK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates
1778192016-04-062017-01-01themusicgod11WrongSaskTel goes on strike
1778212016-04-062017-01-01themusicgod11WrongSaskTel is legislated back to work as "Essential Services"
1778222016-04-062017-01-01themusicgod11WrongSaskTel lays off at least 100 full time employees.
1778232016-04-062020-01-01themusicgod11WrongSTC is privatized
1778242016-04-062019-01-01themusicgod11WrongSaskTel privatized
1778252016-04-062020-04-20themusicgod11At least one Sask Party MLA elected in 2016 put in jail
1778262016-04-062020-06-01themusicgod116183331e9007a573863190a476a3abb8 quits SaskTel
1778272016-04-062016-04-10ioannes1WithdrawnI finish the ML Udacity lessons by EOD Saturday
1778282016-04-062016-04-25ioannes5RightHilary wins New York primary
1778292016-04-062016-04-25ioannes2RightTrump wins New York primary
1778382016-04-072031-01-16trishume14% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses
1778432016-04-072016-05-30Leo1WrongKings XI Punjab win 2016 IPL
1778452016-04-072066-04-07two2thehead2Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical.
1778512016-04-082016-04-22splorridge21WrongDavid Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks.
1778542016-04-092016-11-10Bruno Parga9WrongThe Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November.
1778552016-04-092016-11-09Bruno Parga3WrongThe Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2.4% of the popular vote in New Hampshire.
1778562016-04-092037-12-31Bruno Parga3Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.
1778572016-04-092037-12-31Bruno Parga4Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded).
1778702016-04-112016-04-17ioannes1RightI complete at least one "completionist" cycle this week
1778732016-04-112016-11-10jesselevine3WrongRepublican candidate loses with >191 votes.
1778772016-04-112018-01-01themusicgod11Avogadro project fixes value of the Kilogram before Planck constant is set in 2017
1778782016-04-122018-01-02themusicgod11RightBitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins)
1778792016-04-122018-01-02themusicgod11I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878
1778802016-04-122018-01-01themusicgod1124% or more of coral reefs in asia are gone relative to 2007
1778812016-04-122018-01-01themusicgod18WrongKim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence
1778892016-04-132018-01-01themusicgod11Commercially available hard disks utilize heat-assisted magnetic recording
1778902016-04-132018-01-01themusicgod11Over 30% of Canadians 2 payments or more behind on mortgage payments at any point in 2017
1778912016-04-132018-01-01themusicgod11Bank of Canada increases overnight rate over 2.5% in 2017
1778922016-04-142018-01-01themusicgod11Ampyx prototype AP3 deployed for testing
1778952016-04-142019-10-01themusicgod11Sandia 10MW CO2 turbine tests success
1778962016-04-142017-01-16NathanMcKnight8WrongTexas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election.
1778972016-04-142017-12-01themusicgod11Burr And Feinstein Anti-Perfect-Forward-Encryption bill passes
1779012016-04-152018-01-01themusicgod12WrongLaw Students commonly use IBM's Watson
1779052016-04-152018-01-01themusicgod128 million accounts on ripple networks
1779082016-04-152018-01-01themusicgod18WrongCivil war in Saudi Arabia
1779092016-04-152018-01-01themusicgod12Wrong90% of web traffic will be images
1779102016-04-162018-01-01themusicgod14WrongUS Newspaperocalypse
1779112016-04-162016-04-17trishume1WrongI will advance to round 2 of the 2016 Google Code Jam after round 1A.
1779122016-04-162016-08-01ioannes5WithdrawnIf the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination
1779342016-04-182025-06-22Paul.David.Carr131 year continuous human habitation of the moon
1779372016-04-192020-12-01themusicgod16"President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay."
1779382016-04-192017-09-20RoryS1I will do a postgrad degree in neuroscience or cognitive science in 2017-18
1779392016-04-192017-09-20RoryS1I will do a postgrad degree in computer science in 2017-18
1779402016-04-192017-09-20RoryS1I will do a postgrad degree in philosophy in 2017-18
1779412016-04-192017-09-20RoryS1I will do a postgrad degree in anthropology in 2017-18
1779422016-04-192016-06-12raehik2WrongThe Dota 2 6.87 patch will not come out before the Manila Major is over.
1779502016-04-202018-01-02themusicgod13WrongRussia Bans Bitcoin
1779512016-04-212400-01-01themusicgod11Abrupt drop off found in space dust sizes above 2.176 × 10E−5 g
1779522016-04-212018-01-01bobpage3WrongI will finish Stephen's Sausage Roll before 2018
1779632016-04-242016-05-01RoryS1WrongT will reciprocate for R
1779722016-04-252017-01-01themusicgod11None of the hackathon (Consensus 2016) winners include a threat model as part of their entry.
1779732016-04-252016-07-01brslvrsl2WrongContigent on the Brexit vote beeing >50% for UK leaving the EU, the Pound Sterling will have lost 25% of current (April 25) value within a week after the vote.
1779742016-04-252016-10-24splorridge2WrongJ will get 50 catches of 4 balls in the next six months.
1779752016-04-252016-07-25splorridge2WrongM will get 50 catches of 3 balls in the next three months
1779792016-04-262026-04-26jesselevine3In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the "PAUSE" key
1779802016-04-262030-01-01sflicht3The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030.
1779842016-04-262024-12-31Paul.David.Carr12More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.
1779862016-04-262025-06-22Paul.David.Carr4First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid.
1779872016-04-262066-01-01themusicgod11A male or female friend of mine will marry a man, only to have it revealed later that he's transitioning to being a woman [in that order]
1779882016-04-262031-04-26themusicgod13Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent
1779962016-04-282020-01-01muflax2ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu)
1779972016-04-282019-01-01sflicht10WrongSpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019.
1779982016-04-282021-01-01sflicht12SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021
1780092016-04-292020-01-01Paul.David.Carr3RightNokia will no longer make phones for any market by start of 2020
1780102016-04-292022-02-28Paul.David.Carr5The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football)
1780112016-04-292030-01-01Paul.David.Carr1Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028
1780152016-04-302023-04-02AdamSmith2UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals.
1780242016-05-012018-01-01themusicgod14WrongCivil War in Venezuela
1780252016-05-022017-01-01themusicgod11WrongAsoiaf: Neln Fgnex vf encrq ol gur znal snprq tbq.
1780262016-05-022019-01-01themusicgod11WrongASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf
1780272016-05-022017-03-01themusicgod11WrongASOIAF : Zrrerra snyyf gb fyniref, Zvffnaqrv rafynirq
1780352016-05-022016-07-09ioannes1RightTrump wins California
1780382016-05-022021-01-01themusicgod16Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.
1780462016-05-032016-05-04Capla2WrongToday, since I am integrated and centered now, I will get done all of my daily tasks.
1780472016-05-032016-06-01themusicgod11Wrong'Some old coins will move, but they will only be "loosely" linked to Satoshi'
1780482016-05-032016-05-04jesselevine1RightSanders to upset Clinton in the Indiana primary
1780522016-05-042017-02-01themusicgod12WrongSaskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton 100% mandatory evacuations due to fire
1780532016-05-042016-11-16NathanMcKnight9RightTrump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election.
1780542016-05-042016-11-16NathanMcKnight6RightClinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election.
1780552016-05-042016-06-08docskalski7WrongBernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote
1780602016-05-042017-02-01themusicgod11WrongSaskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by F5 tornado
1780622016-05-042016-05-31mrmrpotatohead6WrongTo "prove" he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later.
1780632016-05-052016-11-09jesselevine3WithdrawnHillary Clinton is forced (called) to testify about private email server before the general election.
1780662016-05-062017-01-02themusicgod12WrongLives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016
1780692016-05-062021-01-01themusicgod11Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users
1780702016-05-062016-08-16ioannes3WrongKasich is Trump's VP pick
1780712016-05-062016-08-16ioannes4WrongJeff Sessions is Trump's VP pick
1780722016-05-062016-08-16ioannes11WrongTrump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.)
1780732016-05-062016-08-16ioannes9WrongTrump's VP pick is a woman.
1780742016-05-062016-08-16ioannes9WrongTrump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white).
1780772016-05-072026-01-01sflicht2By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces.
1780782016-05-082017-02-01themusicgod18WrongPresident Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State
1780792016-05-082017-02-01themusicgod19WrongFBI/CIA orchestrated "massive false flag tragedy" happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected
1780912016-05-102022-12-31themusicgod11DRM-free games now selling more copies than DRM-encumbered ones
1780922016-05-102027-01-01themusicgod122026: Last DRM-spewing company closes down. People once again share media w/o technological barricades
1780972016-05-102017-01-16NathanMcKnight3WrongTrump will take fewer than 210 electoral votes in 2016 election.
1780982016-05-102017-01-16NathanMcKnight2WrongTrump will take fewer than 170 electoral votes in 2016 election.
1781032016-05-122016-05-14bobpage1WithdrawnLegitimate winning bid for George Zimmerman's PF-9 will be >= $1M USD
1781042016-05-122016-05-14bobpage1WithdrawnLegitimate winning bid for George Zimmerman's PF-9 will be >= $10M USD
1781142016-05-132016-07-01PseudonymousUser1WithdrawnI will be promoted to a "manager" title by July 1.
1781922016-05-182016-05-25Michael Dickens2RightCarl Shulman will point out something I did wrong on my quantitative models post.
1781982016-05-182019-01-02chemotaxis1013RightPresidente interino MT será conduzido à condição de Presidente da República *e* exercerá seu mandato até o final.
1782042016-05-182016-12-01ioannes8RightA democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election.
1782052016-05-182016-05-18RoryS2WrongLiverpool will win against Sevilla
1782222016-05-202018-01-01themusicgod11>=1.6 million human genomes sequenced
1782232016-05-202018-01-01themusicgod11Vaselgel makes it to market by 2017
1782242016-05-212017-01-01InquilineKea3Right2016 to be the warmest year ever
1782252016-05-212018-01-01InquilineKea4Wrong2017 to be the warmest year ever
1782262016-05-212021-01-01InquilineKea2Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020
1782272016-05-212045-01-01InquilineKea2George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category)
1782282016-05-212066-01-01InquilineKea1Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category)
1782292016-05-212017-01-01InquilineKea4WrongBoston will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016
1782302016-05-212017-01-01InquilineKea5WrongNYC will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016
1782312016-05-212026-01-01InquilineKea1GDF-11 to be demonstrated to convincingly increase lifespan by 2025
1782322016-05-212027-01-01InquilineKea1rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase *average* lifespan in dogs by 2026
1782332016-05-212040-01-01InquilineKea3Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy
1782342016-05-212025-01-01InquilineKea1parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan
1782352016-05-212026-01-01InquilineKea1cannabinoids to be demonstrated to increase lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025
1782362016-05-212017-01-01InquilineKea1Age of Empires II HD: The African Kingdoms will be on sale for under $3 on any day during 2016
1782372016-05-212017-01-01InquilineKea1Starcraft 2: Heart of the Swarm to be on sale for under $20 on any day during 2016
1782382016-05-212017-01-01InquilineKea1RightGTA V to be on sale for under $30 on any day during 2016
1782392016-05-212021-01-01InquilineKea1HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020
1782402016-05-212040-01-01InquilineKea1Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once)
1782412016-05-212031-01-01InquilineKea3The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul - to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030
1782422016-05-212018-01-01InquilineKea2Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5
1782432016-05-212021-01-01InquilineKea2Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released)
1782442016-05-212025-01-01InquilineKea2"age of onset of 12 years" will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out
1782452016-05-212021-01-01InquilineKea1SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020
1782462016-05-212021-01-01InquilineKea3MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020
1782472016-05-212021-01-01InquilineKea3Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020
1782482016-05-212018-01-01themusicgod12Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects
1782492016-05-212017-01-01themusicgod11WrongThe DAO still exists / has a value of at least 1$
1782502016-05-212016-05-30themusicgod11WrongSTD tests come back positive
1782512016-05-222018-07-18themusicgod14RightNew Ghostbusters movie will make a profit
1782522016-05-222066-01-01themusicgod11Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in
1782532016-05-232021-05-22themusicgod12I am banned from Facebook
1782562016-05-232021-05-22themusicgod16RightI am banned from Predictionbook
1782782016-05-262016-12-01themusicgod13WrongTrump's VP Pick: Carol Bartz
1782792016-05-262027-01-01themusicgod112017 Cloud Cover for continental US more than it was in 2007
1782802016-05-262018-05-10olivia5WrongSpaceX will launch a Dragon or Dragon-derived vehicle to the surface of Mars in the 2018 launch window.
1782892016-05-272019-06-01Paul.David.Carr6WrongA confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed.
1782902016-05-282017-01-02themusicgod17WrongBernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP
1782912016-05-282017-01-02themusicgod18WrongClint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick
1782942016-05-292021-01-01InquilineKea12Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020
1782952016-05-302016-07-04Michael Dickens1WrongLSH in season 6
1782962016-05-302016-05-30wafflepudding1WrongDrugs are here
1782972016-05-302016-06-27HonoreDB4WrongArya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6.
1783072016-06-012019-01-01bobpage1WrongI will buy a hidpi laptop for my personal use before 2019
1783082016-06-012017-01-01bobpage1WrongIn Apple's iPhone announcement in 2016, at least one new iPhone will have a True Tone display
1783092016-06-012016-11-10bobpage24RightHillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President
1783282016-06-032016-11-08Paul.David.Carr12WrongGary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates.
1783502016-06-052016-12-31themusicgod11Government of Nova Scotia releases Accessibility legislation that meets CCLA's approval
1783512016-06-052016-07-25themusicgod12RightcoinbaseUSD bitcoin price at least 1% higher a week after after block halving than it was before.
1783522016-06-052017-01-01themusicgod12Wrongbank of canada sets target for overnight rate 1.36% or higher
1783622016-06-062016-06-20Michael Dickens5WrongS06E07 Arya was not actually Arya.
1783652016-06-072016-06-09RyanCarey180,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site.
1783662016-06-072016-11-09LawrenceNewport16WrongHilary Clinton as next US President
1783672016-06-072066-06-07two2thehead5Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.
1783772016-06-092016-06-09qwerty3142WrongHammersmith Underground is in interior zone 1
1783782016-06-092016-06-09qwerty3142RightHammersmith Underground is in interior zone 2
1783792016-06-092016-06-09qwerty3142WrongHammersmith Underground is on boundary zone 1/2
1783952016-06-122018-03-01themusicgod13WrongInflation rate in june 2017 higher than june 2016 in South Africa.
1783962016-06-122019-01-01themusicgod13Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa
1783972016-06-132019-01-01themusicgod11"second attack" in Santa Monica either incorrect/didn't happen, or outright media/government fabrication
1784012016-06-142016-06-30WilliamKiely7WrongBernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th
1784022016-06-142017-07-02Matt2WrongAt least one other person will be tripped up by the Credence game question about "the" "A Christmas Carol" movie, a question that assumes that there should be only one film on this page: http://www.imdb.com/find?s=all&q=A+Christmas+Carol
1784112016-06-142016-11-10bobpage9WrongGary Johnson will be the next elected President
1784412016-06-162016-12-17gwern10WrongKim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016.
1784422016-06-172016-07-29two2thehead5RightElizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign
1784432016-06-172016-07-29two2thehead12RightA woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign
1784482016-06-172016-06-18themusicgod11WrongbitcoinCAD up june 17 2016
1784492016-06-172016-12-01themusicgod11WrongWithin two months of halving, bitcoinCAD price doubles
1784502016-06-172016-07-16themusicgod12WrongTheDAO heist on june 16 winds up forcing rollback/transactions reversed
1784512016-06-172017-01-01NathanMcKnight7RightStein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote.
1784522016-06-172016-10-01themusicgod114WrongTrump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP
1784592016-06-182017-06-18themusicgod11WithdrawnTheDAO drainer is a bitcoin early adapter who is intentionally trying to take down ethereum in some sense
1784602016-06-182017-06-18themusicgod13WithdrawnTheDAO drainer is a state agency, such as the CIA
1784612016-06-192018-01-01bitbatbot3The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018.
1784622016-06-192017-01-14themusicgod15WrongTrump picks Newt Gingrich for VP
1784652016-06-202017-12-31themusicgod12WrongASOIAF Zbgure bs qentbaf unf frk jvgu lnen terlwbl
1784662016-06-202016-07-31themusicgod12WrongASOIAF: gur nezl bs gur qrnq oernpu gur jnyy
1784722016-06-202050-01-01themusicgod16Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)
1784842016-06-222016-06-23themusicgod11WrongI read something more important than http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/occupy-heaven-potential-humanity-safeguard-future/ today
1784912016-06-232016-07-29two2thehead3RightJulian Castro will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign
1784922016-06-232016-07-29two2thehead5RightCory Booker will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign
1784932016-06-232016-07-29two2thehead3RightLos Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign
1784942016-06-232016-07-29two2thehead3RightRep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign.
1784952016-06-232016-07-29two2thehead5RightSen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign
1784962016-06-232016-06-25ioannes4WrongBrexit margin of victory is <5% for remain
1784972016-06-232016-06-25ioannes3RightBrexit margin of victory is <5% for leave
1784982016-06-232016-06-25ioannes4WrongBrexit margin of victory is >5% for remain
1785052016-06-242017-01-01splorridge5WrongBoris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party
1785062016-06-242017-01-01splorridge6RightTheresa May will be the next leader of the Conservative party.
1785072016-06-242020-01-01splorridge15WrongAnother EU country will decide to leave before 2020
1785102016-06-242018-01-25themusicgod12WrongFood scarce in UK: widespread hunger/empty supermarkets for at least a month(ie not single blip due to natural catastrophe)
1785132016-06-252016-09-23hoka1WithdrawnI will do a startup in healthcare !
1785152016-06-252016-09-23hoka1WithdrawnI will do a startup in healthcare!
1785272016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod13WrongTrump choice for VP is Mary Fallin
1785282016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod11WrongTrump pick for VP is John Kasich
1785292016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod13WrongTrump pick for VP is Ben Carson
1785312016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod16WrongTrump pick for VP is Marco Rubio
1785322016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod12WrongTrump pick for VP is Bob Corker
1785332016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod13WrongTrump VP Pick Brian Sandoval
1785342016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod110RightTrump VP pick is Mike Pence
1785352016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod16WrongTrump VP pick is Jeff Sessions
1785362016-06-252016-09-01themusicgod12WrongTrump VP pick is Mia Love
1785372016-06-252017-03-01themusicgod18WrongUS economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it
1785382016-06-252017-12-31themusicgod11commercial scale, "netpower" allam cycle plant completed & ready for operation
1785392016-06-252016-11-01ejlflop6RightDavid Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50
1785402016-06-252020-06-16ejlflop9WrongDavid Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it)
1785412016-06-252020-01-01jasticE7WrongThe UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU
1785422016-06-262016-06-28polyopticon1Engaged MonJune27 - 45% opens, 2% clicks
1785432016-06-262017-06-26Michael Dickens1Right(Game of Thrones spoilers) Prefrv oheaf qbja Xvat'f Ynaqvat va frnfba 6 be 7
1785522016-06-272017-01-01splorridge4WrongJeremy Corbyn will resign over Brexit and the current Labour coup.
1785532016-06-272017-01-01splorridge1WrongLabour will appoint an SNP MP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray
1785542016-06-272017-01-01splorridge1WrongLabour will appoint a Labour MSP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray
1785552016-06-272017-01-01splorridge1RightLabour will appoint a Labour MP representing a non-Scottish constituency as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray
1785562016-06-272017-01-01splorridge1WrongLabour will appoint a Labour MEP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray
1785572016-06-272017-01-01splorridge1WrongLabour will appoint somebody who is not an elected politician as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray
1785582016-06-272017-01-01splorridge1WrongLabour will not appoint a new shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray
1785592016-06-272017-01-01splorridge2RightThere will be a Labour leadership election as a result of the aftermath of Brexit vote
1785602016-06-272017-01-01splorridge5RightConditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot
1785612016-06-272017-06-01splorridge6RightConditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win
1785622016-06-272017-01-01splorridge3WrongThe Labour party will split
1785632016-06-272017-01-01splorridge4WrongThe Conservative party will split
1785642016-06-272021-01-16NathanMcKnight10Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years.
1785652016-06-272021-01-16NathanMcKnight9In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum.
1785662016-06-272026-01-16NathanMcKnight5Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years.
1785762016-06-292201-01-01WilliamKiely5[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200.
1785772016-06-292301-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300.
1785782016-06-292401-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400.
1785792016-06-292501-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500.
1785802016-06-292601-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600.
1785812016-06-292701-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700.
1785822016-06-292801-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800.
1785832016-06-292901-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900.
1785842016-06-293001-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000.
1785852016-06-294001-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000.
1785862016-06-295001-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000.
1785872016-06-296001-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000.
1785882016-06-297001-01-01WilliamKiely4[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000.
1785892016-06-298001-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000.
1785902016-06-299001-01-01WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000.
1785912016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000.
1785922016-06-299999-12-24WilliamKiely4[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000.
1785932016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000.
1785942016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000.
1785952016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000.
1785962016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000.
1785972016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000.
1785982016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000.
1785992016-06-299999-12-31WilliamKiely3[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000.
1786002016-06-292016-11-10jesselevine4RightCalifornia will vote "yes" on Proposition 64 in the 2016 elections, legalizing marijuana.
1786302016-07-012066-07-01two2thehead3Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.
1786312016-07-012066-07-01two2thehead6Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD].
1786352016-07-012016-09-20splorridge2WrongStephen Crabb will be the next leader of the Conservative party
1786362016-07-012016-09-20splorridge4WrongAndrea Leadsom will be the next leader of the conservative party
1786372016-07-012016-09-20splorridge2WrongLiam Fox will be the next leader of the Conservative party
1786562016-07-022017-01-01two2thehead3WrongThe redacted 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 report will not be declassified in 2016
1786572016-07-022016-07-08elephantower4RightTurnbull will be Australia's next prime minister
1786752016-07-042016-11-08qznc26WrongHillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016
1786762016-07-042021-06-16two2thehead3WithdrawnConditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security
1786892016-07-062016-07-21Jenson4WrongTrump choice for VP is NOT Fallin, Kasich, Carson, Rubio, Corker, Sondoval, Pence, Sessions, Love, Gingrich, himself, or nobody.
1786952016-07-072016-07-19elephantower2WrongThe Republican convention will pass a motion to unbind the delegates
1786982016-07-072017-07-16themusicgod12Right1 year after block halvening, main USD exchange price will be at least 4.61% higher than the main USD exchange price was at the time of the block halvening.
1786992016-07-072016-07-19themusicgod13RightContrary to game-theoretic concerns, miners will continue to mine bitcoin and the network will not collapse at the halvening due to lack of mining
1787002016-07-072016-07-16themusicgod11Wrongd33a499b544fa29f0554866ad2db2454 is in active labour during the Bitcoin Halvening
1787062016-07-082016-08-10jesselevine4WrongThe Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event.
1787092016-07-082066-01-01themusicgod132nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states)
1787272016-07-082018-09-01themusicgod11TTC makes its goal of 8$M more from metropass users in 2017 than in 2016.
1787282016-07-082018-01-01themusicgod13WrongNASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD)
1787292016-07-082018-09-25themusicgod11DirecTV and Amdocs publicly sign another agreement extending cooperation between two companies, or one buys the other
1787302016-07-082018-04-01themusicgod11greater than 600,000BTC worth of payments occur from mobile devices during 2017, whether on bitcoin or other payment system
1787312016-07-082019-01-02themusicgod12From Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2019, If I encounter any 10$ USD bills, more than half of them will have been printed since 2013
1787322016-07-082018-10-01themusicgod12Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published
1787332016-07-082018-01-01themusicgod11Andreessen Horowitz, August Capital still exists as a VC firms in 2018 both with greater or equal value on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_venture_capital_firms of 2016 (950M, 2500M) (or have merged with larger VC entity)
1787342016-07-082018-01-01themusicgod15Wrong"Battle suits" will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon
1787352016-07-082066-07-08two2thehead1It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation
1787362016-07-082056-08-07RoryS3William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies
1787682016-07-122020-12-31elephantower1Morocco withdraws from Western Sahara by 2020
1787692016-07-122016-12-31elephantower4WrongThe world average of the 2016 democracy index will be higher than in 2015
1787872016-07-132016-11-08predictit4WrongDemocrats will win 370+ electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election.
1787882016-07-132016-11-08predictit7RightA third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate
1787922016-07-132017-01-01splorridge3WrongOwen Smith will be the next Labour leader.
1787932016-07-132016-10-01kuudes6WrongGovernment of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union.
1787942016-07-132017-01-01kuudes6WrongGovernment of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union.
1787952016-07-132017-07-01kuudes7RightGovernment of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union.
1787962016-07-132018-01-01kuudes7RightGovernment of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union.
1787972016-07-132017-01-01Dapple1WrongAugur (Ethereum prediction market) will launch in 2016
1787982016-07-132017-05-14Paul.David.Carr1RightChelsea FC will win a Champions League place in 2016-2017
1788022016-07-132020-12-31elephantower3WithdrawnConditional on a leadership election where Corbyn is not on the ballot, Labour splits into two parties
1788042016-07-142016-11-08predictit6RightThe GOP will keep the senate in 2017
1788112016-07-142017-02-15predictit5WrongMerrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat
1788122016-07-142016-12-31predictit3RightRajoy will be Spain's next prime minister
1788132016-07-142017-01-20predictit4RightPaul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House
1788142016-07-142016-11-08predictit4RightMia Love will be re-elected to the House of Representatives from Utah's 4th district
1788152016-07-142016-11-08predictit3RightJim Justice will win the WV governor race in 2016
1788162016-07-142016-07-22Jenson5WrongTrump's running mate is Nigel Farrage
1788172016-07-142016-12-16blackRust3RightConditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked.
1788182016-07-142017-05-14blackRust5RightConditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass.
1788192016-07-142021-01-16blackRust7Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.
1788242016-07-152016-12-01PlacidPlatypus3Right[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop
1788252016-07-152016-12-01PlacidPlatypus2Right [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Sarah Michelle Gellar
1788262016-07-152016-12-01PlacidPlatypus1Wrong [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Ana
1788272016-07-152016-12-01PlacidPlatypus1Wrong [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Aaron
1788282016-07-152016-12-01PlacidPlatypus1Wrong [UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop but the body she wants is not Sarah Michelle Gellar, Ana, or Aaron.
1788462016-07-172016-07-19Chri1WrongTIME Stories will be KSdJ 2016
1788472016-07-172016-07-19Chri1WrongPandemic Legacy will be KSdJ 2016
1788482016-07-172016-07-19Chri1RightIsle of Skye will be KSdJ 2016
1789242016-07-212016-10-16Shekerev3I will pass my exams
1789582016-07-222018-01-16elephantower5RightTheresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum
1789592016-07-222020-12-16elephantower4Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020
1789602016-07-222020-12-16elephantower4Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards
1789612016-07-222018-12-16elephantower4WrongThe Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today
1789742016-07-242016-11-09Bruno Parga7WrongGary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls.
1789752016-07-242021-01-01themusicgod19Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS
1789762016-07-242021-01-01themusicgod15WrongClinton elected and US civil war
1789772016-07-242016-07-25blackRust1WithdrawnThere will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of August
1789782016-07-242016-09-30blackRust1RightThere will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of September
1789792016-07-242016-10-31blackRust1RightThere will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of October
1789882016-07-252020-07-24themusicgod111France holds 'leave EU' referendum
1789892016-07-252021-07-24themusicgod11Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines
1789902016-07-252021-07-24themusicgod11Russian "peacekeepers" on the ground in Latvia
1789912016-07-252021-07-24themusicgod11Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries
1789922016-07-252023-01-01themusicgod11Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations
1789932016-07-252023-01-01themusicgod13Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania
1789942016-07-252024-01-01themusicgod15WWIII will include Turkey as a participant
1790132016-07-252020-01-16sungk20483Right[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2020 (continuous between 2016 and 2020).
1790412016-07-272016-07-26themusicgod11Wrongthis prediction will break >
1790422016-07-272017-07-26themusicgod11Wrongthis prediction will also break. [ You gotta test in production, that's where the action is ]. This is a test just like the last prediction > It's totally a test of whether the bug is triggerable. Are you triggered? d: :d :d d:
1790882016-07-302016-08-01themusicgod11Wrongcd591c54d0bbf69025801fcddf4a85d9
1790892016-07-302016-11-09matuschoma6WrongHillary Clinton wins election.
1790902016-07-302016-11-10robirahman2WithdrawnHillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
1790912016-07-302016-11-10robirahman5WrongHillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
1790922016-07-312066-07-30two2thehead5RightWhat is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be *generally agreed upon* to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.
1790932016-07-312016-07-31themusicgod11Wrongthis prediction should definitely break then > _ >
1790942016-07-312021-01-01themusicgod19At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump
1790952016-07-312021-01-01themusicgod13At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US
1790962016-07-312021-01-01themusicgod18In case Congress ever gets to actually charging President Trump with something sufficiently egregious to warrant Impeachment, a new war begins involving the US
1791012016-08-012041-01-01themusicgod16Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s)
1791232016-08-022016-11-08predictit2RightBlunt (R-MO) will win re-election to the US Senate
1791242016-08-022016-11-08elephantower2WrongRepublicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016
1791252016-08-022016-11-08predictit2WrongRepublicans win between 218 and 230 house seats in 2016
1791262016-08-032016-11-08predictit4WrongThe Democratic Party wins NC in the 2016 presidential election
1791272016-08-032016-11-08predictit4RightThe Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election
1791642016-08-052016-11-08predictit2RightThe Democrats will win the Nevada senate race
1791772016-08-082017-01-01splorridge2RightI will get 15 catches of five balls this year
1791782016-08-082017-01-01splorridge1RightI will get 7 catches of seven balls this year
1791792016-08-082017-01-01splorridge1RightI will get 8 catches of six balls this year
1791802016-08-082017-01-01splorridge1RightI will get 100 catches of four balls this year
1791952016-08-092016-10-08hoka5WrongOne of John McCain or Paul Ryan will publicly withdraw support for Donald Trump in 2 months
1791962016-08-092016-12-16NathanMcKnight5WrongClinton wins entire eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida.
1792132016-08-102016-08-11themusicgod11Wrongweather will be shit today when I'm walking
1792142016-08-102016-11-08predictit6WrongHillary Clinton wins Georgia
1792152016-08-102016-11-08predictit2RightThe Republicans win the 2016 Florida senate race
1792182016-08-112016-11-08predictit1RightBurr (R-NC) will be re-elected to the senate
1792192016-08-112038-08-11two2thehead1It will be generally agreed that a meeting occurred between Trump and the Secret Service during 2016 August regarding his comments on the second amendment.
1792202016-08-112016-08-12sacred_datura1RightModel will finish training before tomorrow moring and not crash.
1792212016-08-112016-11-08predictit5WrongHillary wins South Carolina
1792222016-08-112016-12-16NathanMcKnight1WrongNate Silver's "Polls Only" model proves to be the most accurate of 538's three models on election day.
1792232016-08-122016-08-14Porejide1RightTed won't be able to provide me with a way to actually restrict the player universe in an ESPN fantasy football draft to remove the keepers in the next 48 hours.
1792262016-08-152018-01-01splorridge3RightThe next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female.
1792372016-08-162020-01-01sflicht4WrongQuora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020.
1793052016-08-202021-01-01themusicgod11Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use
1793062016-08-212016-08-21elephantower1Wrongjoe responded
1793092016-08-212034-01-01bobpage6Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034
1793102016-08-212017-03-02bobpage9WrongBarack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017
1793112016-08-212018-01-01bobpage4RightI will buy an NVIDIA graphics card before 2018
1793862016-08-262021-01-16NathanMcKnight4Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates.
1793872016-08-262021-01-16NathanMcKnight19Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020.
1793882016-08-262020-11-16NathanMcKnight4Libertarian Party candidate gets into 2020 presidential debates.
1794162016-08-292022-12-31themusicgod12Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me.
1794342016-08-292017-01-01unexpectedEOF2RightThere will be more DUI crashes (injury and non-injury) in Austin, TX for the Labor Day 2016 period than the same period in 2015.
1794572016-08-312016-11-24two2thehead2RightFor the remainder of the 2016 Presidential Campaign, Trump will not have an approval rating higher than his bounce after the RNC
1794662016-09-012018-01-01themusicgod113Rightat least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank
1794722016-09-012017-07-16volis1RightReliance Jio 4G data plans will not cost more than 100 INR/GB in 2017.
1794732016-09-012016-09-02booradleytron1Rightfinish this water
1794842016-09-022017-12-31themusicgod12WrongMarijuana decriminalized in canada in 2017
1794852016-09-022017-09-02themusicgod14WrongI will be single on Sep 1, 2017
1794962016-09-032019-01-01themusicgod11gene swap does happen at HOPE 12
1795172016-09-052016-09-08Sniffnoy1WrongBook 2 of Unsong will end with an interlude this week (September 7).
1795352016-09-072021-09-07Michael Dickens2Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years.
1795362016-09-072019-03-01Michael Dickens3RightOpen Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016.
1795392016-09-072018-03-01themusicgod11"Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018"
1795402016-09-072018-12-31themusicgod11US + Russia only have 1,150 nuclear warheads as per START treaty
1795412016-09-072017-07-01bobpage2WrongI will switch back to Firefox for my primary web browser on my desktop or laptop before 2017-07-01
1795422016-09-072018-01-01bobpage5WrongI will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01
1796012016-09-112016-09-11elephantower1Wrongemail was about grade
1796022016-09-122017-03-01themusicgod12Wrong78da4c28c143411c49c808a02702de83
1796032016-09-122026-04-29themusicgod11Harry Halpin on the payroll of, or otherwise compromised by the NSA/FVEY
1796042016-09-122017-01-01themusicgod13WrongHillary Clinton drops out of the presidential race due to health reasons
1796052016-09-122018-01-01btrettel3WrongI will contract Zika virus any time before 2018
1796062016-09-122024-01-02btrettel6The "Steamboat Willie" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier
1796072016-09-122016-09-13mmelewinsky1Promised food at the Latrice Royale opening event Fall '16 by SJE in Trayes Hall will not appear until one hour after doors open (8pm EST)
1796382016-09-182016-11-08nelson.horsley@gmail.com7WrongHillary will win the presidency
1796842016-09-222018-01-01themusicgod11FISA Section 702 renewed
1796852016-09-222019-12-31Michael Dickens4RightAt least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason.
1796862016-09-222018-01-01themusicgod115 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017
1796872016-09-222024-01-01themusicgod11Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago
1797082016-09-242018-12-01themusicgod12No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees "Anonymous are not terrorists"
1797492016-09-292020-01-01penten6WrongSelf driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019
1797502016-09-292018-01-01penten4WrongSelf driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017
1797512016-09-292017-01-01penten3WrongRead 45 or more books this year
1797662016-09-302017-01-01berekuk2WrongWe won't hire any new admins for Kocherga club in 2016
1797672016-09-302016-11-01berekuk1WrongI'll conduct a training on nonviolent communication for 6+ people in October 2016
1797682016-09-302016-12-01berekuk1RightWe'll conduct the third applied rationality workshop in Kocherga in October or November 2016
1797692016-09-302017-06-01berekuk1RightLessWrong.ru Slack chat won't move from Slack to another platform until June 2017
1797702016-09-302016-12-30themusicgod16WrongNuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties
1797932016-10-022019-01-01Michael Dickens1WrongBy 2019 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb).
1797942016-10-022016-10-05Michael Dickens1WrongOn Monday I will successfully squat 315 pounds for 5 reps.
1797952016-10-022016-10-05Michael Dickens1RightOn Monday I will successfully bench 187.5 pounds for 3 sets of 3 reps.
1797962016-10-022016-10-30Michael Dickens1RightMy next two attempts to set 5-rep PRs on the bench press will both be successful.
1797972016-10-022017-02-01TheCometKing3WrongHiveswap will be released by the end of January 2017
1797982016-10-022050-01-01btrettel3US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050
1797992016-10-022016-12-02themusicgod11RightI manage to submit a National Security Consultation submission
1798032016-10-032016-10-04Capla1RightI'll be free to meet with Andrew between 5 and 9 tomorrow.
1798042016-10-032018-12-31themusicgod113-4 "do everything" companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services)
1798152016-10-042022-12-31themusicgod11China's Cap and Trade system still up and running
1798162016-10-042018-12-31themusicgod12RightNASA InSight is launched successfully
1798262016-10-042016-10-15splorridge2RightI will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16
1798312016-10-042016-10-05splorridge2RightI will weigh more tomorrow than I did today
1798322016-10-042016-10-05splorridge2RightA's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine
1798332016-10-042016-10-05splorridge1RightJ will come into work tomorrow
1798342016-10-042016-10-05splorridge2RightI will come into work tomorrow
1798492016-10-052030-01-01bobpage1Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher
1798572016-10-062017-06-01bobpage5RightNo military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01
1798582016-10-062017-06-01bobpage7RightNo nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about
1798592016-10-062017-06-01bobpage1WrongMagic Leap's AR device is available for immediate shipment to the general public before 2017-06-01
1798602016-10-062017-06-01bobpage7RightOn 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap
1798612016-10-062017-01-01bobpage1Wrongzfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2017
1798622016-10-062018-01-01bobpage1Wrongzfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018
1798632016-10-062019-01-01bobpage1Wrongzfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2019
1798642016-10-062020-01-01bobpage1Wrongzfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020
1798652016-10-062016-10-07bobpage2WithdrawnPSA: There is an index of all public predictions at http://pbindex.neocities.org/
1798712016-10-062016-11-01PlacidPlatypus1Right[LoL Worlds] Albus NOX Luna makes it out of groups
1798722016-10-062016-11-01PlacidPlatypus2Right[LoL Worlds] Korean team wins
1798732016-10-062016-11-01PlacidPlatypus1Wrong[LoL Worlds] Chinese team wins
1798742016-10-062016-11-01PlacidPlatypus1Wrong[LoL Worlds] NA team wins
1798752016-10-062019-01-01bobpage3WrongI will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01
1798762016-10-072018-01-01bobpage2WrongI will visit Japan before 2018
1798772016-10-072019-01-01bobpage1WrongI will visit Japan before 2019
1798782016-10-072036-10-07two2thehead2Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them
1798792016-10-072036-10-07two2thehead4RightWithin twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor
1798802016-10-072026-10-07gwern19Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross
1798812016-10-072016-12-05Adam Zerner1WrongHaseeb will visit me some time between November 25th and December 5th.
1798822016-10-072016-12-31Adam Zerner2RightJessica won't visit me before the end of the year.
1798832016-10-072016-10-15Adam Zerner2WithdrawnMy bike will still be at The Sheffield.
1798842016-10-072016-11-17Adam Zerner2RightI spend less than $1000 next month.
1798852016-10-072016-11-17Adam Zerner1RightI spend less than $900 next month.
1798862016-10-072016-10-14Adam Zerner1WrongI do at least 50 hours of pomos over the next week.
1798872016-10-072017-02-07Adam Zerner1WrongThe orthotic makes my achilles peritendonitis better within 3 months.
1799022016-10-092017-10-01themusicgod11RightI will clean up summer bike before summer, ie it won't sit covered in mud like the winter bike was during the summer
1799032016-10-092021-10-07themusicgod11SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers
1799042016-10-092017-01-15JoshuaZ10WrongMelania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017
1799072016-10-102016-10-10bobpage2RightIn tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both)
1799082016-10-102017-05-16hoka2WrongDonald Trump will loose the presidential election and launch a news media channel in 2017
1799092016-10-102019-10-10penten4WrongIt will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years.
1799102016-10-102018-01-01penten1RightThis BOE reference interest rate will be 0.5% or below at the end of 2017
1799112016-10-102022-01-01themusicgod11There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting
1799122016-10-102024-12-31themusicgod116'President Mike Pence'
1799132016-10-102066-10-10two2thehead2Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder
1799212016-10-112017-10-10themusicgod11RightI will be banned from diasporg
1799312016-10-132016-10-13Adam Zerner1WrongAlex knows what the Monty Hall problem is
1799322016-10-132016-11-01penten1WrongS born before 1st November
1799332016-10-132016-12-01penten1RightS born after 1st November
1799342016-10-132017-01-01penten1RightI make more than 500gbp in non-work income by the end of the year
1799352016-10-132017-03-05penten1WrongI tracked our spending between 11th Feb 2017 and 4th March 2017 AND it is within 1000gbp
1799552016-10-142016-10-17btrettel2WrongI will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year
1799562016-10-152021-01-01themusicgod11Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen
1799572016-10-152016-10-16Michael Dickens2RightTomorrow morning I will weigh more than I did this morning.
1799582016-10-152016-10-22Michael Dickens2RightOne week from today, I will weigh less than 89.5kg.
1799592016-10-162016-10-17themusicgod11RightUbuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs)
1799642016-10-172017-01-01bobpage3WrongJulian Assange died before this prediction was made
1799942016-10-202016-12-31themusicgod12WrongLucid Motors/Atieva launches a fully electric vehicle
1799952016-10-202021-10-20themusicgod11SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor
1799962016-10-202021-10-20themusicgod13Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor
1800142016-10-222016-12-22igorhorst3RightDonald Trump will receive at least 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 US Presidential election.
1800152016-10-222016-11-08quanticle4WrongHillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election.
1800182016-10-232016-10-29jbeshir1WrongFiction,Webcomics, Erfworld - Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 206 or 207.
1800192016-10-232016-10-29jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist - Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 92 or 93.
1800202016-10-232016-10-29jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Best apologises or expresses regret to someone for something within pages 29-31.
1800212016-10-232016-10-30jbeshir1RightFiction, Web Serial, Twig - Falconer's bird is incapacitated or dies during 14.15 or 14.16
1800222016-10-232016-10-30jbeshir1RightBob Dylan acknowledges his Nobel Prize in Literature in some fashion before the start of 2016-10-30
1800262016-10-242026-10-25themusicgod11Timbuktu burned to the ground/leveled by group loyal to dalwa al islamyya
1800272016-10-242046-11-24JoshuaZ5Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046
1800322016-10-252017-01-01themusicgod12RightI will read 52 or more books in 2016
1800352016-10-262016-11-08bobpage4WrongKim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day
1800562016-10-292021-10-28themusicgod11bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is
1800572016-10-292016-11-28themusicgod11Rightzcash price in bitcoin between [0.001, 500] BTC/ZEC
1800582016-10-292016-11-06jbeshir1WrongFiction, Web Serial, Twig – Mauer is told about the Falconer's origin during 14.18 or 14.19
1800592016-10-292016-11-06jbeshir2WrongUK Government agrees to take in more migrant children than previously planned before start of 2016-11-06.
1800602016-10-292016-11-05jbeshir1WrongFiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 208 or 209.
1800612016-10-292016-11-12jbeshir8WithdrawnPolitics - Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results.
1800622016-10-292016-11-05jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist – Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 94 or 95.
1800632016-10-292018-12-31Michael Dickens3RightOpen Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup.
1800662016-10-302017-01-01bobpage4WrongI will meet IRL anyone found via Tinder, before 2017
1800672016-10-302030-12-31themusicgod12jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator
1800682016-10-302030-12-31themusicgod15github still exists
1800692016-10-302046-10-31themusicgod11github still exists
1800702016-10-302046-10-31themusicgod11 jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator
1800762016-10-312018-01-01themusicgod11Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is = 7
1800772016-10-312018-01-01themusicgod11Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is < 7
1800782016-10-312021-01-01themusicgod11Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is = 7
1800792016-10-312021-01-01themusicgod11 Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is < 7
1800802016-10-312021-01-01themusicgod11 Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7
1800832016-10-312017-01-01penten2Rightzcash price is below 0.4 BTC
1800842016-10-312017-01-01penten2Rightzcash price is below 1 BTC
1800852016-10-312019-01-01penten2WrongLP identifies as vegetarian by end of 2018
1800862016-10-312031-10-31penten2S identifies as vegetarian by 15
1800982016-11-012100-01-01themusicgod14A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars.
1800992016-11-022017-02-02two2thehead3WrongNorth Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile in the last two months of 2016
1801002016-11-022018-01-01penten2WrongInstapaper has shut down by end 2017
1801132016-11-032029-01-01themusicgod11The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017
1801142016-11-032026-01-01themusicgod11AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa.
1801152016-11-032017-01-14themusicgod11WrongClinton-traed iana or icann lobbying to permaremove wikileaks ability to use DNS
1801162016-11-032016-11-10bobpage5WrongI will get a response from R before 2016-11-10
1801172016-11-032016-12-02splorridge1WrongZac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election
1801182016-11-032016-12-02splorridge1RightThe Liberal Democrat candidate will win more votes than the Labour candidate in the Richmond Park by-election
1801192016-11-032016-12-31olimay1WrongI will be offered the position at PU EE.
1801272016-11-042018-12-31themusicgod11Rightlinux 3.2 no longer supported by kernel dev team
1801282016-11-052018-12-31themusicgod11WrongFessenheim Nuclear Power Plant closes
1801292016-11-052018-12-31themusicgod11WrongFlamanville 3 reactor startup
1801302016-11-052018-01-01themusicgod11Wrong Construction of Musk Hyperloop will be ready for passengers by 2018
1801312016-11-052018-12-31themusicgod11Wrongredefinition of Kg before planck's constant is fixed
1801342016-11-062017-01-01themusicgod15Right0-15 faithless electors
1801352016-11-062017-01-01themusicgod13Wrong16-32 faithless electors
1801362016-11-062017-01-01themusicgod15Wrong0 faithless electors
1801372016-11-062016-12-06two2thehead4RightWhoever wins the State of Pennsylvania will win the 2016 US Presidential Election
1801492016-11-072017-01-12HonoreDB14RightAt least one "faithless elector" in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College.
1801502016-11-072016-11-09themusicgod13WrongUS goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016
1801512016-11-072017-01-01themusicgod11WrongMassacre at Standing Rock, >50 people killed 2 weeks after election results decided
1801522016-11-072016-11-12NathanMcKnight4WrongClinton wins by 5 points or more.
1801652016-11-082096-01-01themusicgod11i live to use quell
1801702016-11-082016-11-12jbeshir1WrongFiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 210 or 211.
1801712016-11-082017-01-01jbeshir2WrongSpaceX launches (defined as lifting off the ground at a scheduled launch time, otherwise no success requirement) again before the end of 2016.
1801722016-11-082016-11-20jbeshir1RightFiction, Webseries, RWBY - Yang puts on the prosthetic during Volume 4, Episode 4.
1801732016-11-082016-11-27jbeshir1WrongPersonal - In my multiplayer game of Alpha Centauri with the other Rattumblrites, I (jbeshir) win.
1801742016-11-082016-11-13jbeshir2WrongFiction, Webseries, Twig - 15.2 is from the Lambs' perspective.
1801782016-11-092017-11-08themusicgod121WrongPresident Trump Dead/Impeached
1801792016-11-092021-01-01themusicgod14Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court
1801802016-11-092021-01-01themusicgod116US presidents term limits abolished
1801812016-11-092021-01-01themusicgod11at least 2 political prisoners executed in US
1801822016-11-092021-01-01themusicgod110homosexuality criminalized in the US
1801832016-11-092017-02-01themusicgod13WrongObama Pardons Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump presidency
1801842016-11-092021-01-01themusicgod14President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary
1801852016-11-092021-01-01themusicgod19America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea
1801862016-11-092017-06-01pkfalu922RightI will graduate MS
1801872016-11-092020-01-20JoshuaZ1WithdrawnOne of the five things I predicted with Michael will come true during the next four years (detailed in comments).
1801882016-11-092016-11-16penten1WrongI will judge myself to be "very happy" next wednesday
1801892016-11-092016-12-09penten1WrongWe will buy more clothes for S within a month
1801902016-11-092016-12-09penten1WrongWe decide to change S's name in the next month
1801912016-11-092016-11-16penten1RightS is induced
1801922016-11-092017-11-09themusicgod123WrongPresident Trump jailed
1801932016-11-092021-01-01themusicgod13United States pulls out of NATO
1801992016-11-102018-01-20JoshuaZ5WrongTrump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office.
1802002016-11-102018-05-10themusicgod11Wrong2nd US civil war over, bernie sanders brokers peace
1802012016-11-102021-01-01themusicgod12President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond
1802022016-11-102016-11-09NathanMcKnight1RightWow.
1802032016-11-102021-01-01Jayson Virissimo14There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS.
1802062016-11-102017-02-01bobpage16RightDonald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017
1802072016-11-102021-01-01themusicgod12#Calexit
1802082016-11-102021-01-01themusicgod11China floats the yuan
1802092016-11-102021-01-01themusicgod11US unilaterally attempts to takes over 1M$ USD from US-MEX remittances
1802102016-11-102018-01-01themusicgod112WrongLePen elected president of france, 2017
1802112016-11-102017-01-20bobpage3RightI will receive a new passport before 2017-01-20
1802312016-11-122016-11-12savolver1RightTest 2.
1802322016-11-122016-11-12savolver1RightTest 3.
1802332016-11-122016-11-12savolver1WrongTest 4 - Does this 30% probability show up in 70%?
1802342016-11-122017-02-12two2thehead3WrongBarack Obama recognizes Palestine
1802352016-11-122017-02-01themusicgod11WrongTPP Passes in US (specifically through lame duck president Obama)
1802372016-11-132017-01-15Vipul Naik4RightThe amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million.
1802382016-11-132018-02-03Vipul Naik3RightGiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution).
1802392016-11-132021-01-01bobpage31California will secede from the United States before 2021
1802402016-11-132017-01-02Vipul Naik6WrongThe Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2017.
1802412016-11-132017-04-02Vipul Naik12RightThe Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before April 1, 2017.
1802422016-11-132020-12-31Vipul Naik3The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station.
1802432016-11-132018-01-02Vipul Naik5RightThe Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2018.
1802442016-11-132018-06-30Vipul Naik4WrongJustin Bieber's "Sorry" will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's "Gangnam Style" will.
1802452016-11-132018-06-30Vipul Naik3RightWiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's "See You Again" will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's "Gangnam Style" will.
1802462016-11-132018-06-30Vipul Naik5RightWiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Justin Bieber's "Sorry" will.
1802472016-11-132018-01-02Vipul Naik2RightAmazon Web Services will introduce an m4 (or later generation "m" type instance) with more RAM and cores than its current biggest m4 machine, m4.16xlarge, before January 1, 2018.
1802482016-11-132018-01-02Vipul Naik2RightAmazon Web Services will drop the storage price for S3 standard storage in its US standard (N. Virginia) region between November 13, 2016 and January 1, 2018.
1802492016-11-132018-01-03Vipul Naik8WrongLegitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018.
1802502016-11-132017-03-02Vipul Naik7RightThe total of grant amounts for grants announced by the Open Philanthropy Project by March 1, 2017, with the grant date listed as being in 2016, excluding GiveWell-recommended grants, will be over $50 million.
1802512016-11-132020-01-02Vipul Naik7RightUber will IPO before January 1, 2020.
1802522016-11-132016-11-25Vipul Naik7WrongBetween 2% and 8% of the ~1500 respondents will answer "More than 50%" to my Google Surveys question "What proportion of the people currently physically present in the United States are foreign-born?"
1802532016-11-132017-01-02Vipul Naik5WrongAs of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's "Work from Home" will be the only YouTube video released in 2016 that has over a billion views.
1802572016-11-142016-11-21jbeshir1WrongWaterstones removes the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20
1802582016-11-142016-11-21jbeshir2WrongAmazon removes at least one listing of the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20
1802592016-11-142016-12-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics, India - It is announced before 2016-12-01 that banks will accept old 500 and 1000 rupee notes, for exchange or for any other purpose, beyond 2016-12-30, either indefinitely or up to an extended deadline.
1802602016-11-142016-11-16jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webseries, Twig - In 15.3, we get confirmation that the chief members of the Rank have cooperated.
1802632016-11-142020-12-01splorridge6A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020
1802642016-11-142020-12-01splorridge6A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020
1802652016-11-152030-01-01Dapple3A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal
1802702016-11-152016-11-23bobpage3RightSecond Dell server will not need to be returned within a week
1802712016-11-152017-02-01bobpage3RightSamsung 850 EVO will not be returned before 2017-02-01
1802722016-11-152017-02-01bobpage4RightCisco switch will not be returned before 2017-02-01
1802732016-11-152016-11-23bobpage2RightUsed iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-23
1802742016-11-152016-11-25Vipul Naik7WrongGiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Thursday, November 24, 2016 (Thanksgiving Day).
1802832016-11-162016-11-16elephantower2Rightover 20 people show up
1802842016-11-162017-02-01bobpage3WrongI will see fm this winter
1802852016-11-162016-11-19themusicgod11RightI didn't just lose bitcoin
1802942016-11-172021-01-20splorridge4Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency.
1802952016-11-172021-01-20splorridge10US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.
1802962016-11-172021-01-20splorridge5Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job.
1802972016-11-172021-01-20splorridge17Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.
1803102016-11-172021-01-01themusicgod18At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US
1803332016-11-192016-12-06themusicgod12RightCR's friend will get snow tires on his truck in time for CR to borrow it
1803402016-11-202016-11-29bobpage3RightRefurbished iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-29
1803512016-11-212021-01-01Osuniev9Trump survives his presidency
1803542016-11-212018-02-01Osuniev10Wrong2017 will be the hottest year on record.
1803552016-11-212016-11-21rishika1Wrong1360-80 in SAT practice test C
1803802016-11-222016-12-23leo_grint2WrongFrancois Hollande to enter french presidential race
1803812016-11-222017-01-22leo_grint2WrongArnaud Montebourg wins french left wing primary.
1803932016-11-262017-01-02Vipul Naik3RightAs of January 1, 2017, there will be fewer than 50 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube.
1803942016-11-262016-12-03Vipul Naik2RightGiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 3, 2016.
1803952016-11-262016-12-10Vipul Naik1RightGiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 10, 2016.
1803962016-11-262017-04-02Vipul Naik5RightAs of April 1, 2017, there will be at least 45 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube.
1803982016-11-262018-05-26Ben Doherty6WrongThe next iPhone number will be 10, skipping 8 & 9.
1804062016-11-272017-04-01kuudes3WrongCivil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event.
1804072016-11-272019-12-31Faceh9RightSenator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election.
1804102016-11-282017-01-15bobpage1Right24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will be returned before 2017-01-15
1804112016-11-282021-01-01bobpage9Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021
1804142016-11-292020-01-02murrlong4WrongBy the prediction date, due to technological advances, UPS loading positions and teams will be no more 20% of their current size.
1804222016-11-302018-07-02DaFranker1RightThe Topps Company will keep the Shadowrun license until at least July 1st, 2018
1804232016-11-302017-01-02Vipul Naik4RightThe number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017.
1804242016-11-302018-01-02Vipul Naik4RightThe number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018.
1804252016-11-302021-01-02Vipul Naik3The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021.
1804262016-12-012016-12-02CLARENCETHEANGEL1WrongZak Goldsmith will win Richmond Park by election on 1dec2016.
1804272016-12-012022-01-01themusicgod11>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders
1804302016-12-012036-11-28themusicgod11d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still in same house
1804312016-12-012036-11-28themusicgod11d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying 5000$/mo in property tax
1804322016-12-012036-11-28themusicgod11d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying < 300$/mo property tax
1804332016-12-012020-11-28themusicgod14Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems
1804342016-12-012026-11-28themusicgod11More families in north america are single income, two partners, raising children than dual income with/without children/other arrangements
1804352016-12-012021-12-01penten14Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.
1804362016-12-012016-12-15penten1RightLP feeling generally happier about S than this week
1804752016-12-052017-01-01bobpage1RightMy configuration management system will be deployed on at least one server before 2017
1804892016-12-082021-01-01themusicgod11Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger
1804932016-12-092016-12-26penten2Wrong"White Christmas" (any snowfall on Christmas day qualifies)
1804942016-12-092026-12-09penten2We will have a second child within 10 years
1804952016-12-092017-01-10bobpage1RightReplacement Dell 24" G-SYNC monitor will have the same vertical-striping issue
1804962016-12-092017-01-10bobpage1WrongReplacement 24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will have >= 0.1 more accurate gamma
1804972016-12-092026-12-10hedges3Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis
1805072016-12-112016-12-18jbeshir1RightFiction, Webseries, Twig - Sy meets with Fray during 15.13 or 15.14
1805082016-12-112016-12-18jbeshir1RightFiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Bandit says at least one sentence to Ardaic within Chapter 45, Pages 19, 20, or 21.
1805092016-12-112016-12-17jbeshir1WrongBusiness, UK - A deal preventing further strike action is announced by South West Trains by the end of Friday 16th December 2016.
1805102016-12-112016-12-17jbeshir2RightPolitics, US - Rex Tillerson officially announced by Trump or representative as nominee for Secretary of State before 2016-12-17
1805112016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1RightDota 2 7.00: Iron Talon cost and damage to creeps on activation unchanged
1805122016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Outworld Devourer base armour or base damage reduced
1805132016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike cooldown increased
1805142016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike recipe cost increased
1805152016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Moon Glaive no longer works on illusions
1805162016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Laguna Blade damage increased
1805172016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Disruption illusions damage taken increased
1805182016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Disruption cooldown increased
1805192016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1RightDota 2 7.00: Underlord added to captains mode
1805202016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1RightDota 2 7.00: Arc Warden added to captains mode
1805212016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Aether Lens recipe cost reduced
1805222016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Guardian Greaves recipe cost reduced
1805232016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: 2 new heroes added
1805242016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1RightDota 2 7.00: Damage dealt to buildings by illusions reduced
1805252016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Wisdom stat added
1805262016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Necronomicon recipe cost reduced
1805272016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Conceding possible in ranked matchmaking
1805282016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1RightDota 2 7.00: In-game HUD changed significantly
1805292016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Dragon Lance agility and strength boost reduced
1805302016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Heaven's Halberd cooldown reduced
1805312016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Sentry Wards no longer purchased in pairs
1805322016-12-112016-12-11RogerDodger1WrongDota 2 7.00: Divine Rapier damage increased
1805432016-12-132031-12-13Ben Doherty8Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)
1805462016-12-142017-01-02Vipul Naik6Righthttp://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be the most viewed blog post on the Effective Altruism Forum for December 2016 according to Google Analytics.
1805492016-12-152021-12-25kjaques61 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use
1805532016-12-162017-01-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for December 2016 than for December 2015. http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?tag=Countries&months[0]=201612&months[1]=201512&language=en&drilldown=desktop
1805622016-12-172021-01-01themusicgod11Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake
1805742016-12-192021-01-01themusicgod11Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country')
1805752016-12-192017-07-01themusicgod12RightTerrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country')
1805842016-12-212021-01-01themusicgod12President Jerry Brown
1805852016-12-212017-02-21penten1RightS slept for an uninterrupted stretch of more than 4 hours between 9pm and 7am on 4 out of the 5 days previous to the prediction due date.
1805862016-12-212017-05-01penten2RightI cycled to work at least twice in the last month.
1805882016-12-212018-01-01penten2WrongI will have given up coffee by 1st Jan 2018
1805902016-12-212016-12-28penten1WrongI will receive beer as a present this Christmas
1805912016-12-212016-12-28penten1RightI will receive a coffee-related gift this Christmas
1805932016-12-212017-12-21penten2RightI will have a new phone in 12 months (current MI3W)
1805942016-12-212018-12-21penten3RightI will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W)
1806042016-12-222017-03-20taryneast4RightMy baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 39+2 weeks gestation
1806052016-12-222017-03-07taryneast5WrongMy baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 37+2 weeks of gestation
1806062016-12-222017-12-30penten3RightI am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017)
1806072016-12-222018-01-01penten3RightRead 45 or more books in 2017
1806082016-12-222018-01-01penten2WrongI will read 3+ Chinese books in 2017
1806092016-12-222018-01-01penten2RightI will read 2+ French books in 2017
1806102016-12-222021-01-01themusicgod14US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism.
1806112016-12-222018-01-01themusicgod12RightI read >13 books in 2017
1806122016-12-222017-07-01themusicgod12WrongTrump approves dapl >90 days from inauguration but <180 days from inauguration
1806132016-12-222025-07-22themusicgod11facebook block capability will digitally alter pictures to erase evidence that the person who's blocking you was ever present
1806142016-12-222016-12-25asyks2Rob will win his family's Festivus FEAT OF STRENGTH this year
1806152016-12-232026-01-01themusicgod15Duterte OD's on some drug
1806202016-12-272017-01-31sjy3RightThe UK Supreme Court will dismiss the Brexit appeal
1806212016-12-272017-01-20asyks22RightDonal Trump will be inaugurated President
1806312016-12-312017-12-31EloiseRosen1Withdrawn2017 predictions: conditional on using work time tracking through Dec 31, my weekly average will be >41 hours.
1806332016-12-312017-12-31EloiseRosen1Wrong2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will still be working at my current company.
1806342016-12-312017-12-31EloiseRosen1Right2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 18.6 - 19.5 inclusive.
1806442017-01-012018-01-01Bruno Parga7WrongA meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016.
1806452017-01-012018-01-01themusicgod11WrongResolution 3 : Stay out of ER as patient in 2017
1806462017-01-012021-01-10bendini1Illidanstr will spend at least one new years eve before the year 2021 not alone, according to his personal definition of "not alone"
1806472017-01-012018-01-01splorridge3WrongI will drop out of my PhD in 2017
1806482017-01-012018-01-01splorridge3RightI will read >15 books in 2017
1806492017-01-012018-01-01splorridge1RightI will reach my weight goal of 64.1kg (10 day average) in 2017
1806502017-01-012018-01-01splorridge1WrongI will have a major haircut in 2017
1806512017-01-012018-01-01splorridge1WrongI will be hospitalised in 2017 (not counting A&E)
1806522017-01-012018-01-01splorridge3RightI will try an alcoholic drink in 2017
1806532017-01-012018-01-01splorridge2WrongI will consider myself to be "a person who drinks alcohol" at any point in 2017
1806542017-01-012018-01-01splorridge3WrongI will be asking people to use gender-neutral pronouns for me by the end of 2017
1806552017-01-012018-01-01splorridge2RightI will be able to (reasonably consistently) beat AoE2HD AI 1v1 on hardest difficulty setting at any point in 2017
1806562017-01-012018-01-01splorridge2RightI will consider myself "in a relationship" at any point in 2017
1806572017-01-012018-01-01splorridge3WrongI will go on dates with >5 people in 2017
1806582017-01-012018-01-01splorridge1WrongI will complete my current music project in 2017
1806592017-01-012018-01-01splorridge2RightI will read every new xkcd in 2017
1806602017-01-012018-01-01splorridge3RightI will read every new SSC in 2017
1806612017-01-012018-01-01splorridge3WrongI will consider myself vegan at any point in 2017
1806622017-01-012018-01-01themusicgod12WrongResolution 1 : I will spend equal time with people who live within PRISM/walled gardens like facebook as time outside those walls
1806632017-01-012018-01-01themusicgod12Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio
1806642017-01-012018-01-01mortehu17RightTrump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018
1806652017-01-012018-01-01mortehu4WrongIsraeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017
1806692017-01-022018-01-01WilliamKiely3WrongI will read 20+ books in 2017
1806702017-01-022018-01-01WilliamKiely3WrongI will read 30+ books in 2017
1806712017-01-022018-01-01WilliamKiely3WrongI will read 40+ books in 2017
1806722017-01-022018-01-01Issa Rice2RightVipul Naik will publish a post on the Effective Altruism Forum during 2017 http://effective-altruism.com/user/vipulnaik/submitted/
1806732017-01-022017-02-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016.
1806742017-01-022017-02-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016.
1806782017-01-032037-01-03penten4Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country)
1806792017-01-032018-01-03Jach1RightI will finish 6 or more books this year
1806802017-01-032018-03-01davidmanheim1Right2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 4%
1806812017-01-032018-03-01davidmanheim1Wrong2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 2%
1806822017-01-032018-01-01davidmanheim2RightRepeal of Obamacare, including at least the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules signed in to law before end of 2017
1806832017-01-032018-01-01davidmanheim4WrongGiven an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017
1806842017-01-032018-01-01davidmanheim3There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) 
1806852017-01-032021-01-01davidmanheim2There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) 
1806862017-01-032018-11-20davidmanheim8WrongRepublicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections
1806872017-01-032020-11-01davidmanheim5There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) 
1806882017-01-032021-01-20davidmanheim5The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) 
1806892017-01-032018-01-01davidmanheim1WrongI will read at least 30 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction)
1806902017-01-032018-01-01davidmanheim2RightI will read at least 20 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction)
1806912017-01-032017-05-01davidmanheim4WrongI will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017
1806922017-01-032021-01-01Issa Rice4By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/
1806932017-01-032017-02-03playablecharacter3WrongIssa Rice will write down a new prediction each day on PredictionBook for the next month
1807082017-01-042018-01-01davidmanheim9RightBitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000
1807092017-01-042018-01-01davidmanheim2WrongLightning Networks AND Segwit will be *fully* deployed before the end of 2017
1807102017-01-042018-01-01davidmanheim2WrongThere will be a major bug found and exploited in Lightning Networks / Segwit during 2017 (Conditional on deployment before June)
1807112017-01-042018-01-01davidmanheim4RightEthereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017
1807122017-01-042018-01-01davidmanheim4RightEthereum will be above $20 at the end of 2017
1807132017-01-042018-01-01davidmanheim4RightZ-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017
1807142017-01-042018-01-01davidmanheim4RightZ-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017
1807272017-01-052018-01-01adbge2RightOakland's total homicide count is greater than 88 in 2017.
1807282017-01-052026-01-01themusicgod13Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026
1807292017-01-052024-11-08Dapple4I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election
1807302017-01-052020-11-08Dapple2I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election
1807312017-01-052017-06-15playablecharacter1WithdrawnPlayablecharacter will graduate this Spring from college
1807322017-01-052018-01-01playablecharacter2WrongA certain close friend of playablecharacter will commit suicide this year
1807332017-01-052039-01-01playablecharacter3At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity
1807342017-01-052021-01-01playablecharacter2I will suicide before 2021
1807352017-01-052018-01-01playablecharacter1WrongI will experience a blackout while/after drinking alcohol during 2017
1807362017-01-052018-01-01playablecharacter1WrongMyself and a certain close friend will visit Japan during 2017
1807372017-01-052019-02-01Issa Rice3WrongBryan Caplan's The Case Against Education will have a Wikipedia page about it within one month of publication, and the page will not be deleted for one year after publication of the page.
1807382017-01-052021-01-01playablecharacter3RightThe University of Washington will move up from its current ranking of 15 in ARWU before 2021
1807392017-01-052018-01-01Issa Rice7RightVipul Naik will pay more ("payments due") for contract work in 2017 than he did in 2016 https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/
1807402017-01-052018-01-01playablecharacter1WrongIssa Rice source code (in its entirety) will be put into new hardware this year
1807412017-01-052018-01-01playablecharacter1WrongIsrael annexes new land in 2017
1807422017-01-062018-06-30playablecharacter3WrongAkshat Shrivastava will drop out of the University of Washington
1807452017-01-062021-01-20npcuck6Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term
1807482017-01-062030-01-16pkfalu926By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
1807492017-01-062017-01-07pkfalu921RightI will complete part 3 of week 5's assignment tonight, by midnight.
1807502017-01-062017-01-06Rob Bednark1WrongAaron will choose Angelina's for lunch today.
1807512017-01-062021-01-01themusicgod15Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia
1807522017-01-062018-01-01Issa Rice5Wrong"Timeline of digital preservation" on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs
1807532017-01-072017-01-21Issa Rice4WrongI will be on University of Washington Seattle campus on January 20, 2017
1807542017-01-072017-01-08Issa Rice2RightTomorrow I will finish exporting the Quora questions I follow
1807552017-01-072017-01-18ioannes3WrongI go on an OKC date next week
1807562017-01-072017-02-15ioannes5RightI go on an OKC date by February 15, 2017
1807632017-01-082026-01-01Issa Rice2I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025
1807662017-01-092017-02-01sjy4RightThe Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017
1807672017-01-092021-01-10themusicgod11I get banned from GoodReads
1807682017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim5RightAssad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017
1807692017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3RightNo major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war)
1807702017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3RightNo Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017
1807712017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3WrongSituation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017
1807722017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3RightSyria’s civil war will not end during 2017
1807732017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim4RightISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017
1807742017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3RightNo major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party during 2017
1807752017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim5RightNo announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017
1807762017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3WrongEMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017
1807772017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim2RightA significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works in 2017
1807782017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim1WithdrawnA significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is launched by November.
1807792017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim1RightA significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is not launched by November.
1807802017-01-102017-03-01davidmanheim3WrongKeith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair
1807812017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3RightNo country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017
1807822017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim5RightFrance does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017
1807832017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim5RightGermany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017
1807842017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim1RightNo agreement reached on “two-speed EU” in 2017
1807852017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim5RightThe UK triggers Article 50 in 2017
1807862017-01-102017-05-01davidmanheim12RightMarine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running
1807872017-01-102017-11-01davidmanheim11RightAngela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany
1807882017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim5RightTheresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017
1807892017-01-102018-02-01davidmanheim5RightFewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016
1807902017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim2RightOil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel (Brent Crude)
1807912017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim1WrongOil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel (Brent Crude)
1807922017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim2RightDow Jones will not fall > 10% in 2017
1807932017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim2RightShanghai index will not fall > 10% in 2017
1807942017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim14RightDonald Trump remains President at the end of 2017
1807952017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim11RightNo serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017
1807962017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim2WrongConstruction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins in 2017
1807972017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim3RightTrump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017)
1807982017-01-102018-03-01davidmanheim5WrongUS GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016
1807992017-01-102018-03-01davidmanheim7WrongUS unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning
1808002017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim4RightUS does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017
1808012017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim4RightUS does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017
1808022017-01-102018-01-01davidmanheim6RightNo race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017
1808032017-01-102018-01-15davidmanheim2Wrong US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia in 2017
1808042017-01-102018-01-15davidmanheim10RightDonald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent
1808052017-01-102018-01-15davidmanheim5RightDonald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent
1808062017-01-102018-01-15davidmanheim5WrongLess Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017
1808072017-01-102018-01-15davidmanheim3RightScott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse
1808082017-01-102025-01-01bobpage32Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state
1808092017-01-102017-07-01themusicgod12WrongDonald Trump administration names china Currency Manipulator
1808162017-01-102017-02-01jbeshir2RightSpaceX makes a successful launch before the end of January 2017
1808172017-01-112017-03-09themusicgod12WrongI will not be able to find a place, and will be forced to move back to saskatoon
1808242017-01-112018-01-01playablecharacter8Righthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018
1808292017-01-112026-01-01bobpage14Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026
1808302017-01-112017-05-01bobpage5WrongBefore May 2017, we will see authentic video footage of Donald Trump in the same room as one or more women urinating on a bed
1808312017-01-112018-01-01bobpage1WrongNon-test SpaceX rocket will explode in 2017, excluding explosions during controlled descent or landing of reusable stages
1808322017-01-112018-03-01Roxolan1RightAt least one card from the MtG sets Aether Revolt or Amonkhet will get banned in Standard.
1808332017-01-112024-01-11penten1I am still married to my current partner
1808342017-01-122017-12-31blobfish2RightNorth Korea will not experience any significant destabilization of its regime by the end of 2017
1808352017-01-122017-12-31blobfish5RightNo major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017
1808362017-01-122017-01-16ioannes1RightI go to Bolinas this weekend
1808372017-01-122017-01-16ioannes1Wrong2016 Q4 books post published by end of this weekend
1808382017-01-122017-01-14themusicgod12Rightapplication for renting the place on peter st turned down
1808472017-01-122017-06-01penten2Right>= 246 pages of predictions on the "View Predictions" page (12300ish public predictions, currently 238 pages)
1808482017-01-122018-01-01penten1Wrong>= 270 pages of predictions on the "View Predictions" page (13500ish public predictions, currently 238 pages)
1808492017-01-122018-01-01penten1Right>= 267 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13350ish public predictions, currently 238 pages)
1808502017-01-122017-06-01penten4RightFirst prediction created June 1st 2017 UTC has an ID (see URL) >= 182180
1808512017-01-122017-07-01themusicgod11Obamacare repeal on Jan 11/12, 2017 that occurred defeated before it goes into effect
1808522017-01-122017-02-28themusicgod11CFIB comes out against mill rate increase in regina budget
1808582017-01-122017-10-23lukas115RightAFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections.
1808752017-01-132017-01-21jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Best says some variation on "thank you", within pages 10-12
1808762017-01-132017-01-15jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webseries, Twig - In 16.7, the leader orders an attack on Sy.
1808772017-01-132017-02-01jbeshir1RightTechnology - OnePlus releases a further bug fix update for the OnePlus 3 before the end of January.
1808782017-01-132047-01-01themusicgod14Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley
1808792017-01-132026-01-01themusicgod11weev's attempt at resurrecting Luminiferous Aether Theory is actually a ploy to get someone to send his posse quantities of fissile material
1808832017-01-142023-08-16Ben Doherty4Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections.
1808842017-01-142020-10-16Ben Doherty5Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections.
1808852017-01-142024-10-16Ben Doherty8Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.
1808862017-01-142021-01-01themusicgod14Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies
1808872017-01-142021-01-01themusicgod13Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest
1808962017-01-152021-01-01playablecharacter2Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021
1808972017-01-152017-01-18themusicgod11Rightnew landlord accepts tenancy agreement
1808982017-01-152017-02-10ioannes3RightTrump tweets at least one tweet about how great the performances at his inauguration ceremony will be / are / were.
1808992017-01-152017-02-10ioannes5WrongTrump calls out at least one specific performer for refusing to participate in his inauguration ceremony on twitter.
1809002017-01-152018-11-07ioannes7WrongPeter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship
1809182017-01-162020-01-01bendini3WithdrawnTotal per person unsubsidised cost on accelerator project will not be below €100 for rent food energy and internet.
1809192017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11WrongLegislation introduced in the US to regulate Augmented Reality.
1809202017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod12Somebody gets themselves killed, augmented reality to blame
1809212017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11Somebody causes fire, augmented reality to blame
1809222017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod12Virtual Reality used by <1% of US+Can population
1809232017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11first bipedal soldiers deployed are russian made
1809242017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11Wronghuman beings engaged against first bipedal robots in real battle
1809252017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod12First bipedal robots used in police active patrol duty
1809262017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11Somebody does something "really cool" with augmented reality
1809272017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod112 or more of { US, Russia, China } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' }
1809282017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11 2 or more of { US, Russia, China, Israel } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' }
1809292017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11See some kind of CISA/SOPA-like legislation thrown around and some will pass, be legislation on things that are "not legislatable" or logically impossible
1809302017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11Trump Inauguration has lower ratings than or between Obama and Bush Inauguration
1809312017-01-162017-12-31themusicgod11alexa/siri/ok google/their competitor have better conversational skills
1809342017-01-162017-02-02ioannes2RightBooks 2016 Q4 published by February 1 2017
1809352017-01-162020-12-01RandomThinker25The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey.
1809362017-01-162021-01-01themusicgod12Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb.
1809372017-01-162021-01-01themusicgod17Wrong0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world
1809382017-01-172018-06-01themusicgod11WrongWikileaks get shame-labelled as fake news by NSA/Facebook
1809432017-01-172018-01-01penten2RightFTSE100 over 7,000 on January 1st 2018
1809442017-01-172021-01-01themusicgod11compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded
1809452017-01-172017-12-31themusicgod11War involving either active troop deployments from/fighting in all of: US, UK, China, At least one Scandinavian country, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia
1809522017-01-182050-01-01WilliamKiely9AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)
1809552017-01-192017-03-01ioannes8WrongTrump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st)
1809562017-01-192017-12-31themusicgod11large, existing firms that make medical devices will fail to make inroads on marketshare % of wearable health devices wrt small disruptors
1809572017-01-192017-03-01themusicgod13WrongMilo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner
1809582017-01-192017-03-01themusicgod11WrongAndrew Dice Clay provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinne
1809592017-01-192017-03-01themusicgod11WrongJimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner
1809602017-01-192017-03-01themusicgod11WrongJeff Foxworthy provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner
1809612017-01-192021-01-01themusicgod16The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement
1809762017-01-202017-01-27ioannes2WithdrawnThe other boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday ("difficult situation" = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.)
1809772017-01-202017-01-23ioannes2WrongMotorcycle crash on trip to San Diego
1809782017-01-202017-01-23ioannes2WrongMotorcycle crash or breakdown on trip to San Diego
1809792017-01-202017-01-22ioannes1RightArrive in Santa Barbara before sunset tomorrow
1809812017-01-202018-01-16ioannes4RightNo terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017
1809842017-01-212017-01-28jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webseries, Twig - Berger tries to sacrifice the hostage in 16.10 or 16.11
1809852017-01-212017-01-24jbeshir3WithdrawnPolitics - More than 100,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January
1809862017-01-212017-01-24jbeshir6WithdrawnPolitics - More than 10,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January
1809872017-01-212017-01-28jbeshir4RightPolitics - President Trump signs an executive order ordering research into, preparatory work for, or work on border fencing or walls before the end of 2017-01-27
1809882017-01-212017-01-28jbeshir2WrongPolitics - President Trump signs an executive order reversing at least one of Obama's LGBT protection executive orders by the end of 2017-01-27.
1809892017-01-222018-01-15two2thehead5RightNorth Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile before the end of 2017
1810002017-01-232018-12-31themusicgod110WrongPresident Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise)
1810012017-01-232017-05-18atomicspacemann7WrongPresident Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017
1810022017-01-232018-01-07atomicspacemann2The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years.
1810032017-01-232017-05-05atomicspacemann2WrongPresident Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all.
1810042017-01-232018-01-01atomicspacemann4WrongSpaceX will launch a Falcon Heavy before the end of 2017. Any launch leaving the ground satisfies this, even if it fails during ascent, or carries only a test payload.
1810052017-01-232018-01-01atomicspacemann3WrongSpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy launch, defined as placing payload in or above LEO, within 2017.
1810062017-01-232018-01-01atomicspacemann2WrongSpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy booster landing, of at least one booster in 2017.
1810102017-01-232017-01-23technicalities1RightUS will not withdraw from TTIP
1810112017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3RightTerrorism death toll by year end 2017 will be < 30,000
1810122017-01-232017-12-31technicalities4Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000.
1810132017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be < 500,000
1810142017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3RightNo terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world in 2017 (HDI > 0.8).
1810152017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3WrongNo terrorist attack causes >400 deaths in the less developed world in 2017 (HDI < 0.8).
1810162017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2WrongNo terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths in 2017.
1810172017-01-232017-12-31technicalities4RightNo country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone.
1810182017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightFewer refugees admitted to European countries in 2017 than 2016.
1810192017-01-232017-06-30technicalities2WrongFront National will gain 30+ seats in the French legislative election.
1810202017-01-232017-06-30technicalities2RightLe Pen will lose the presidential election.
1810212017-01-232017-06-30technicalities2RightFront National will not end up in power.
1810222017-01-232017-06-30technicalities1RightPartij voor de Vrijheid will gain 5+ seats in the Dutch election.
1810232017-01-232017-06-30technicalities1RightPVV will not end up in power.
1810242017-01-232017-06-30technicalities1RightAlternative für Deutschland will gain 40+ seats in the German election.
1810252017-01-232017-06-30technicalities1RightAfD will not end up in power.
1810262017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1WrongNo second Scottish independence referendum announced in 2017.
1810272017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1RightThere will be no public agreement on UK membership of the common market, post-Brexit.
1810282017-01-232017-03-31technicalities5RightThe UK triggers Article 50.
1810292017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1WrongNo snap UK general election held this year.
1810302017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1WithdrawnConditional on no GE, no new leadership challenge to Corbyn.
1810312017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3RightMay's approval rating above 30% at year end.
1810322017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightChina will not enter recession this year.
1810332017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightPutin’s domestic approval will remain above 50% in whatever reputable polls exist there.
1810342017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightPro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk.
1810352017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightEthiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%.
1810362017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1WrongJoseph Kabila will not be in power.
1810392017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightRe: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured.
1810402017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightThe Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment)
1810412017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2WrongRaqqa will remain under the control of ISIL.
1810422017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightSyrian ceasefire (Russian brokered, Dec 16) will not last.
1810432017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightAssad will remain President of Syria.
1810442017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightTotal media mentions of ISIL continues to decline.
1810452017-01-232017-12-31technicalities7RightTrump will not be impeached.
1810462017-01-232017-12-31technicalities4RightNo criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017.
1810472017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightUS will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers
1810492017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3RightTrump will end the year above 35% approval.
1810502017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightTrump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year.
1810522017-01-232017-01-31technicalities3RightTPP will not be ratified this year.
1810532017-01-232017-12-31technicalities4RightDeportations from the US will not increase by more than a quarter.
1810542017-01-232017-07-02Vipul Naik5RightThe Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before July 1, 2017.
1810552017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction).
1810562017-01-232017-12-31technicalities4RightF-35 program will not be curtailed.
1810572017-01-232017-12-31technicalities4Right 2016 will remain the hottest year on record.
1810582017-01-232017-12-31technicalities10RightBitcoin will end the year above $400.
1810592017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightBrent crude will finish above $60 per barrel.
1810612017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2WrongThere will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack.
1810622017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3WithdrawnNo attempt of a human head transplant.
1810632017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3RightNo human head transplant results in a conscious subject.
1810642017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightNo verified quantum supremacy this year.
1810652017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1WithdrawnThe SAV001 HIV vaccine will show significant results, Cohen's d > 0.3.
1810662017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3RightAt least one PlayStation-level data breach.
1810672017-01-232017-12-31technicalities3Wrong"Data science" hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings.
1810682017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2RightA CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US.
1810692017-01-232017-12-31technicalities2WithdrawnConditional on it occurring, a CRISPR clinical trial will have disappointing results. (Cohen's d < 0.3)
1810702017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1WrongI will get 70% or more of these predictions right. (Correct sign)
1810712017-01-232017-12-31technicalities1WrongIn 2017, I will get a Brier score of > 0.2.
1810722017-01-242017-12-31themusicgod11REINS act signed into law
1810832017-01-252017-12-31themusicgod16WrongTwitter shut down.
1811022017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice2Right"Link posts" will still exist as a feature for new posts on LessWrong on 2018-01-01
1811032017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice1Total LessWrong Google Analytics Pageviews for 2017 will be higher than for 2016
1811042017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice2Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016
1811052017-01-262020-01-01Issa Rice2WrongArbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01
1811062017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice2WrongA LessWrong post published during 2017 will become a top-10 post by pageviews on LW by 2018-01-01
1811072017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice2RightLessWrong will accept posts written in Markdown (any flavor) on its web interface by 2018-01-01
1811082017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice2RightLessWrong will use Telescope Nova rather than its old reddit codebase by 2018-01-01
1811092017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice3Wrong2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month
1811102017-01-262018-01-01Issa Rice2Wrong2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and existing LessWrong accounts will stop working (forcing users to sign up for fresh accounts)
1811262017-01-282017-06-01Temeraire1QRVO loses share on the iPhone
1811272017-01-282019-01-01Temeraire3WrongTrump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold)
1811282017-01-282020-01-01Temeraire3ACA repealed before US midterm elections and 2019 number of people without healthcare insurance > 15m higher than 2016
1811292017-01-282019-01-01Temeraire2WrongDodd-Frank fully or almost fully repealed by US midterm elections.
1811302017-01-282019-03-01Temeraire3WrongDeportations in 2018 up > 50% vs 2016
1811312017-01-282019-01-01Temeraire2Donald Trump maintains effective control (including through close family) of his businesses through US midterms.
1811322017-01-282019-01-01Temeraire3Donald Trump successfully appoints >1 Supreme Court Justice who support increasing abortion restrictions, repealing same-sex marriage, and enforcing state-led voter suppression [sic] before US midterms
1811332017-01-282019-01-01Temeraire2US military use of torture, extrajudicial imprisonment and killing, and mass surveillance all increased by US midterms.
1811342017-01-282019-01-01Temeraire3WrongNationwide school voucher system instigated, >70% of public schools effectively privatized, by US midterms.
1811352017-01-282021-01-01Temeraire3Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem).
1811462017-01-292017-02-06jbeshir7WrongPolitics - President Trump rescinds the Executive Order suspending entry to the United States of Iranian nationals by end of 2017-02-05.
1811472017-01-292017-02-06jbeshir4RightPolitics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders Green Card holders with a nationality currently barred from entry to be permitted to enter the United States by end of 2017-02-05.
1811482017-01-292017-02-06jbeshir4RightPolitics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders dual nationals with citizenship both of a nationality barred from entering and of a non-barred nationality to be permitted to enter by end of 2017-02-05.
1811492017-01-292017-03-01jbeshir8WrongPolitics - President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017.
1811502017-01-292024-02-01equivrel10Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.
1811512017-01-302020-11-08regex63Trump will win a second term
1811522017-01-302025-01-30regex18WrongTrump will not be impeached
1811532017-01-302025-01-30HonoreDB2A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists.
1811542017-01-302018-01-30ioannes1RightA year from now, I will be unable to remember the plot of "The Nix"
1811552017-01-312017-04-17playablecharacter1WrongUser "npcuck" will go to Sakura-Con
1811782017-02-012017-12-01JohnWittle2WrongTrump will nominate Steve Bannon to the Supreme Court.
1811842017-02-012017-03-02Vipul Naik2RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016.
1811852017-02-012017-02-01rmeador2WrongThe Dow goes above 20k again on Feb 1
1811932017-02-022021-01-01bobpage2"the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something"
1812052017-02-032017-02-28penten3RightEmma Stone wins best actress at 2017 Oscars
1812062017-02-032017-07-01kuudes1WrongMore than 40% of SSC17 answerees self-identify in the top 30% right end of the scale
1812092017-02-042021-02-04themusicgod11PAP becomes privatized and murders former shenzenites
1812142017-02-052020-11-07themusicgod11Trump Approval >50% by nov 1, 2020
1812152017-02-052017-03-01ioannes1WrongHacksaw Ridge wins 2017 Oscar for best picture
1812162017-02-052017-03-01ioannes1WrongArrival wins 2017 Oscar for best picture
1812542017-02-082022-03-05atomicspaceman2Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then.
1812552017-02-082017-03-02ioannes1WrongI go on two or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01
1812562017-02-082017-03-02ioannes1WrongI go on three or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01
1812572017-02-082017-03-02ioannes4WrongI go on four or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01
1812852017-02-132020-01-20regex2WrongThere will be at least five times more human trafficking arrests in the United States during the four years after Trump became president than the four years prior.
1812862017-02-132017-07-01ioannes1RightNo areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored "Extreme Drought" by July 1 2017
1812872017-02-132017-12-01ioannes1RightNo areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored "Extreme Drought" by December 1 2017
1812882017-02-132018-02-01ioannes1RightNo areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored "Extreme Drought" by February 1 2018
1812892017-02-132018-01-01ioannes5WrongOroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017.
1812902017-02-132017-02-22bobpage3RightMy brain inflammation will subside before 2017-02-22
1812992017-02-142018-01-01ioannes8RightSteve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017.
1813002017-02-152021-01-01themusicgod11New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017)
1813162017-02-162017-03-16bobpage4RightI will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16
1813172017-02-172021-12-31themusicgod130% corporate tax in US
1813182017-02-172021-12-31themusicgod111-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US
1813322017-02-182017-03-04jbeshir1RightFiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie goes through a portal within pages 237 to 240 inclusive.
1813332017-02-182017-02-25jbeshir1RightFiction, Webseries, Twig - The Lambs leave without a fight during 17.6 or 17.7.
1813342017-02-182017-04-01jbeshir1RightUK - No deal between RMT and Southern Rail ending the dispute over the role of guards on trains reached by end of March 2017.
1813352017-02-182017-02-20jbeshir2RightSpaceX makes a successful launch on 2017-02-19.
1813432017-02-202018-02-07Vipul Naik3RightFacebook will report more than 1.4 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx
1813442017-02-202019-02-07Vipul Naik3RightFacebook will report more than 1.5 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx
1813452017-02-202019-02-07Vipul Naik3Wrong Facebook will report more than 1.6 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx
1813462017-02-202018-02-07Vipul Naik1RightWeekday ridership at the Fremont BART will decline once the Warm Springs / South Fremont BART becomes operational, as judged by Vipul Naik based on data at http://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership
1813472017-02-202018-01-02Vipul Naik6RightFacebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017.
1813482017-02-202018-01-02Vipul Naik1RightQuantcast will continue to show visits and pageviews data for Stack Overflow till the end of 2017.
1813492017-02-202018-01-02Vipul Naik3RightWikipedia Views (wikipediaviews.org) will survive in a form very similar to its present form as of January 1, 2018.
1813782017-02-212017-02-27ioannes7WrongKubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature
1813792017-02-212017-02-27ioannes3WrongMoana wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature
1813802017-02-212017-02-27ioannes4RightZootopia wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature
1814482017-02-272017-11-16ioannes22RightKim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017
1814562017-02-282019-01-01trishume8WrongSpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018.
1814602017-02-282017-04-03ioannes2RightParents' loan payment > $999
1814612017-02-282017-04-03ioannes1WrongParents' loan payment > $1500
1814682017-03-012017-04-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016.
1814692017-03-012017-07-02Vipul Naik4RightThe EA Funds team will decide to continue with the EA Funds after the initial three-month period.
1814702017-03-012017-04-02Vipul Naik1RightGiveWell will publish at least one of its annual review blog posts on or before April 1, 2017.
1814712017-03-012017-05-02Vipul Naik6WrongGiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before May 1, 2017.
1814722017-03-012017-04-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016.
1814732017-03-012017-04-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016.
1814992017-03-042017-03-28jbeshir2WrongPolitics, UK - Power-sharing administration established in Northern Ireland before the end of the three week deadline.
1815002017-03-042017-03-11jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webseries, Twig - Sy arranges an at least temporary truce within 17.11 or 17.12
1815012017-03-042017-03-25jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomic, Erfworld - Marie captures Jillian within pages 241 to 246 inclusive.
1815022017-03-042017-03-25jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomic, Guilded Age - Gravedust loses his challenge.
1815052017-03-052018-01-01KnaveOfAllTrades1By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of ATG squats at [143kg or 1.5x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw.
1815062017-03-052017-07-01playablecharacter5WrongI will kill myself before graduation
1815072017-03-052021-01-01playablecharacter2Certain friend will get themselves killed before graduation (given that they graduate). Not necessarily suicide.
1815082017-03-052017-04-01playablecharacter1Rightpetes will be satisfied
1815092017-03-052018-01-01playablecharacter1RightI envision some vision
1815102017-03-052018-01-01playablecharacter1RightUser "QUEER HOMOSEXUAL LESBIAN" visits Bay Area this year
1815112017-03-052018-01-01playablecharacter3RightUser "******" visits Bay Area this year.
1815122017-03-052018-01-01playablecharacter1RightI visit Bay Area this year
1815252017-03-052017-03-05elephantower1Right2e
1815262017-03-052017-03-05elephantower1Right3a
1815272017-03-052017-03-05elephantower1Right3b
1815282017-03-052017-03-05elephantower1Wrong3c
1815292017-03-052017-03-05elephantower1Right3d
1815412017-03-062017-06-01playablecharacter1RightWCCP gets *absolutely* fucked (damaged so much that it must be abandoned)
1815542017-03-072017-03-20Jais Cheema2RightBy the end of the sprint we will have simplified the setup of Bellroy project by removing at-least 2-3 manual tasks such as sample files, database creation, initial webpack.
1815692017-03-082017-04-15ioannes1WrongPeter Singer actually wasn't no-platformed in March 2017
1815752017-03-092017-04-02Vipul Naik5RightThere will be a standalone Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Facebook as of March 31, 2017.
1815762017-03-092017-04-02Vipul Naik5WrongVipul Naik will be banned from editing Wikipedia as of March 31, 2017.
1815772017-03-092017-03-16Vipul Naik8WrongThe COIN thread on Vipul Naik's paid editing enterprise will continue to receive at least three comments a day as of March 15, 2017.
1815922017-03-102017-10-31splorridge3WrongI will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October
1815932017-03-102017-10-31splorridge2WrongI will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October
1815942017-03-102017-04-15ioannes4RightSecond date with L
1815952017-03-102018-01-01Dapple1WrongKyle Chapman (based stick man) will face prosecution for assault charges in 2017
1815962017-03-102018-01-01Dapple1WrongKyle Chapman (based stick man) will be convicted on assault charges in 2017
1816012017-03-112018-01-02Vipul Naik3WrongI will post more on Facebook in 2017 than I did in 2016 (as judged by myself).
1816022017-03-112100-01-01playablecharacter6Issa will get another girlfriend in this century
1816032017-03-112101-01-01Vipul Naik4Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century.
1816042017-03-113001-01-01playablecharacter10I will have a gf at some point
1816052017-03-113001-01-01playablecharacter7Vipul will get married before he dies
1816102017-03-122017-03-27jbeshir2RightIraq - Mass grave at Badoush prison confirmed by sources outside Hashd al-Shaabi and contains the remains of at least 200 people by the end of 2017-03-26.
1816112017-03-122017-04-13jbeshir2WrongCommunity Project - Rationalist calendar project will have identified at least one of an event or relevant reading for every day of the year before the end of 2017-04-12.
1816122017-03-122017-05-01jbeshir1WrongCommunity Project - Challenger Day is run in the UK before the end of April 2017, being run defined as being announced and having at least five people attend.
1816132017-03-122017-03-26jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age - Both potential warchief trolls survive their fight.
1816142017-03-122017-03-19jbeshir1RightFiction, Webseries, Twig - Helen survives through to the end of 17.14.
1816202017-03-132017-12-31Alti Camelus5WrongThis year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic
1816212017-03-132017-04-01ioannes1WithdrawnTrump solo press conference in March 2017
1816222017-03-132017-06-01ioannes1RightI finish Infinite Jest by June 2017
1816342017-03-152017-04-03Adam Zerner1RightVillanova doesn't win the NCAA tournament
1816352017-03-152017-04-03Adam Zerner1WrongKentucky wins the NCAA tournament
1816432017-03-172017-04-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - Records, forensic evidence, or sourced testimony from officials who were within the intelligence community during the previous US administration is released before the end of March 2017 supporting Trump's claim of being wiretapped.
1816442017-03-172037-03-17gwern25Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.
1816452017-03-172017-03-18ioannes1RightDate tonight
1816462017-03-172017-03-24ioannes2RightTwo+ dates in the next week
1816522017-03-182018-07-01jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie uses some variation on Hippimancy to neutralise Jillian.
1816532017-03-182018-07-02jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie uses some variation on Eyemancy to neutralise Jillian.
1816542017-03-182017-08-02jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Marie turns barbarian as part of a strategy to neutralise Jillian.
1816552017-03-182017-03-19bobpage1WrongBad page state issue is caused by VirtualBox
1816562017-03-182017-03-19bobpage1WrongBad page state issue is caused by VMware Workstation
1816572017-03-182017-03-19bobpage1WrongBad page state issue is caused by BFQ patch
1816582017-03-182017-03-19bobpage1WrongBad page state issue is caused by ZFS
1816592017-03-182017-03-19bobpage1WrongBad page state issue is caused by recent Ubuntu LTS Linux 4.4 kernel patches
1816602017-03-182017-03-19bobpage1RightBad page state issue is caused by something else
1816672017-03-202017-11-01themusicgod14RightUbuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang
1816682017-03-202017-09-20mala1I will launch a landing page for onashirt in the next 6 months
1816712017-03-202017-03-23two2thehead2RightFBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped any candidate of the 2016 US Presidential Election
1816722017-03-202017-03-24two2thehead2Right2017 Mar 20 Both of my predictions will be marked as correct
1816732017-03-202017-03-25themusicgod11WrongNorth Korea conducts nuclear test
1816742017-03-202017-03-24WilliamKiely1WrongMy application for the Mt Whitney Lottery will be accepted.
1816752017-03-202018-01-01sdr13WrongUber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017
1816762017-03-202019-01-01sdr23WrongUber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018
1816772017-03-212017-04-04Jais Cheema1RightWe will get out the first Airflow story to production this sprint.
1816812017-03-212017-04-15ioannes2RightSecond date with L
1816822017-03-212017-04-15ioannes1WrongSecond date with J
1816832017-03-212017-04-15ioannes3WrongSecond date with R
1816902017-03-222017-05-15ioannes3RightISIS claims responsibility for the 2017-03-22 UK parliament attack.
1816932017-03-232017-04-01playablecharacter2Wronghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Ethanbas will be indefinitely blocked from editing Wikipedia by the end of March
1816982017-03-232017-05-01KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBy 2017-05-01 Mon 00:00: At some point by then, I will be >= 83.3...% confident that I had keto flu at some point between now and then. (Informally: I go out of ketosis by the end of April.)
1816992017-03-232017-04-10KnaveOfAllTrades1WrongBy 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my clothes; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent 'homes'.
1817002017-03-232017-04-10KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongBy 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my books; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent homes.
1817012017-03-232017-04-10KnaveOfAllTrades2WrongBy 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my papers; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-permanent) homes.
1817022017-03-232017-04-03KnaveOfAllTrades2RightUntil 2017-04-02 Sun: I do not set any music playing for just myself, other than as linked to or mentioned by other people; or for Deliberately Practising recitation or vocals; or incidental (e.g. YouTube video intros of videos I opened).
1817032017-03-232017-04-03KnaveOfAllTrades1RightUntil 2017-04-02 Sun: I consume < 50 kcal in my bedroom
1817042017-03-232017-03-28two2thehead5Right2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today
1817092017-03-242017-12-27guisamora1WrongLula ou Dilma será preso / presa por conta da Lava-Jato
1817252017-03-262017-04-09jbeshir1WrongFiction, Webcomics, Erfworld - Wanda returns to Gobwin Knob during pages 247 to 250.
1817282017-03-262017-03-30jbeshir2RightTech - The Samsung S8, as released, has no home button.
1817432017-03-272018-01-05ioannes8WrongThe New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017
1817712017-03-292018-01-16timujin1WrongA Blizzard Classic hero to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm.
1817722017-03-292018-01-16timujin1RightKel'Thuzad to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm.
1817732017-03-292022-03-29timujin1A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time.
1817802017-03-292017-10-01ioannes4WrongI go to Burning Man 2017
1817832017-03-302017-03-31jbeshir1RightSpaceX - Launch using a reused first stage successfully lands the first stage again without destroying it.
1817862017-03-302017-03-31Adam Zerner1WithdrawnMy tendon won't hurt when I go for a run this afternoon
1817872017-03-302017-06-30Adam Zerner2WrongMy tendon will be better in 3 months
1818002017-04-012017-05-01jbeshir5WrongPolitics, US - Deal struck involving at least one Democrat to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April.
1818132017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818142017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818152017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818162017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik2RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Japanese television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818172017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the mammals tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818182017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the birds tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818192017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818202017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of mobile web pageviews for the colors tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818212017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of mobile web pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818222017-04-012017-05-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of mobile web pageviews for the countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818232017-04-012101-01-01playablecharacter2Certain friend will kill themselves this century
1818242017-04-022017-05-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016.
1818282017-04-032017-05-03ioannes1WrongParents' loan payment > $1350
1818392017-04-042017-05-15KnaveOfAllTrades2RightBy 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of S80.
1818402017-04-042017-05-15KnaveOfAllTrades2RightBy 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of GKMC.
1818412017-04-042017-05-15KnaveOfAllTrades1RightBy 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its integer Metacritic score is >= than that for TPAB.
1818422017-04-042017-04-18SeriousPod6RightThe Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch.
1818482017-04-052099-12-31themusicgod11CPT symmetry violated
1818492017-04-052017-04-06splorridge1RightResidents of Cloister House will be able to return today
1818572017-04-062017-12-31themusicgod11Hyperion sells 300 nuclear reactors
1818662017-04-072017-04-07clutetc3Tom Brady only plays for 2 more years
1818772017-04-082030-01-01playablecharacter3Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW
1818782017-04-082021-01-01playablecharacter1Given that Avi gets into UW, he is admitted into the CSE major by 2021
1818792017-04-082018-01-01jbeshir2WrongSyria - Credible forensic evidence that a chemical weapons storage or manufacturing location existed in Khan Sheikhoun emerges before the end of 2017.
1818802017-04-082018-01-01jbeshir3WrongSyria - A chemical weapon attack involving a nerve agent occurs between 8th April 2017 and the end of 2017, committed by any party.
1818812017-04-082017-06-01jbeshir2RightSyria - Further Western strikes occur on Syrian Arab Army targets before the end of May 2017.
1818822017-04-082017-05-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - Steve Bannon leaves the White House by the end of April 2017
1818832017-04-082017-05-01jbeshir4WrongPolitics, US - Steve Bannon is demoted in some fashion or leaves the White House before the end of April 2017
1818842017-04-092017-05-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, Europe - Greek delayed bailout payment negotiations conclude with agreement to release the payment, by end of April 2017.
1818852017-04-092017-05-01jbeshir3WrongUK - Culprit of acid attack in Islington identified and identified to have had religious motivations by end of April 2017.
1818862017-04-092017-04-15jbeshir1RightThe 8chan board /ratanon/ is back up with or without earlier posts by the end of the 14th of April 2017.
1818872017-04-092017-04-30two2thehead9WrongNorth Korea conducts a nuclear test within 21 days [2017-04-09]
1818882017-04-092017-04-23two2thehead9WrongNorth Korea conducts a nuclear test within 14 days [2017-04-09]
1818892017-04-092017-04-15jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Donald Trump has a higher approval rating as of latest polls by Friday the 14th of April than he had on the 5th of April.
1818942017-04-092017-04-10Somni1RightHaskell dick (author of a textbook) is male.
1818982017-04-102017-12-15nortil14RightBitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017.
1818992017-04-102017-04-10Somni2WrongI will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games by [17.4.10.12.00.PST].
1819072017-04-102017-04-11Somni1RightGo to CVS today.
1819082017-04-102017-04-11Somni1RightGo to the bank today.
1819092017-04-102018-01-01thekohser1WrongTPO Mobile (The People's Operator) shutters operations before the end of 2017
1819102017-04-102017-04-12Joy2RightI will be able to complete `Move EdiNordstrom orders behind a cutover to new Trading` story within estimate
1819162017-04-112017-04-12Somni1WrongI will visit Jess by [17.4.11.18.00.PST] today.
1819172017-04-112017-04-12Somni1RightI will visit Jess today. (Before [17.4.11.23.59.PST].)
1819182017-04-122017-05-01nortil2WrongGold will hit US$1300 by May 1st 2017
1819192017-04-122017-04-12Somni1Wrong3 total announcements by announcement guy in community episode 2.
1819202017-04-122017-04-13Somni1RightI will kiss Jess within one minute
1819212017-04-122017-04-12Somni1RightI will sleep with (meaning we will at least lay next to each other on her bed while we touch each other) Jess within the next two hours.
1819262017-04-122017-04-13Somni2WrongI will retrieve my passport today.
1819302017-04-123017-04-12Somni2RightI will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games within 1,000 years.
1819312017-04-122018-01-01bobpage3RightConditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do
1819322017-04-122019-01-01bobpage3RightConditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do
1819332017-04-122020-01-01bobpage1RightConditional on using computers by the end of the 2019, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do
1819342017-04-122017-05-04bobpage3RightI will cancel Netflix before my trial ends
1819352017-04-122074-01-01themusicgod11Brad Trost becomes prime minister of canada
1819402017-04-132017-04-14themusicgod12RightUbuntu 16.10->17.04 upgrade on computer "Hedy" will result in a booting machine, to at least emacs, a web browser with access to the www, and a bitcoin client.
1819412017-04-132017-05-01ioannes1RightI drop out of the ultraworking pentathlon
1819422017-04-132017-04-24ioannes1RightThree or more dates in the next 10 days
1819482017-04-142019-01-01Nick.dylan6WrongChina will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018.
1819492017-04-142017-04-28Somni1Wrongillidanstr will accept and complete the Death by Hormones Exam within two weeks.
1819502017-04-142017-06-01jbeshir2WrongTech - FaceApp is revealed to send data from USB storage unrelated to its core functionality to the cloud before the end of May 2017.
1819512017-04-142017-04-15Somni1RightWill discuss paperwork with Fib for at least 20 minutes today.
1819522017-04-142017-12-31themusicgod1110,000 CAD$ / bitcoin on non-localbitcoins exchange shown on bitcoinwatch (or equivalent if bitcoinwatch goes down)
1819532017-04-142017-06-02ioannes13WrongMore than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017
1819542017-04-142017-06-02ioannes4WrongMore than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017
1819552017-04-142017-05-01ioannes1RightKendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >100 million views by May 1, 2017
1819562017-04-142017-05-01ioannes1WrongKendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by May 1, 2017
1819572017-04-142017-12-01ioannes2WrongKendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017
1819582017-04-142017-12-01ioannes1RightThe Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017
1819592017-04-142017-06-01ioannes1RightThe Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by June 1 2017
1819622017-04-152017-04-15elephantower1Wrongbuy machines embodying improved TFP = diminishing marginal returns to capital
1819632017-04-152017-04-23jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - A member of the Trump campaign is arrested in connection with an investigation into communications with Russian agents or the Russian government before the end of 2017-04-22.
1819662017-04-152018-12-24themusicgod16WrongConsumer-level "Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron" (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market
1819702017-04-152017-10-30pvoberstein2RightDonald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017.
1819762017-04-162018-01-01themusicgod11WithdrawnThis claim will be withdrawn
1819772017-04-172017-04-17Somni1RightI will go to the seder tonight.
1819782017-04-172017-04-19EloiseRosen6Wrongterrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included)
1819792017-04-172017-05-01EloiseRosen2WrongUnited apologizes for conflict with engaged couple
1819852017-04-182017-06-09splorridge4WrongThe UK Conservative Party will increase its majority in parliament as a result of the general election on 8th June.
1819862017-04-182017-06-09splorridge2WrongThe UK Labour Party will lose seats as a result of the general election on 8th June
1819872017-04-182017-06-09splorridge6RightThe UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June
1819882017-04-182017-06-09splorridge5WrongThe Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015.
1819892017-04-182017-06-09technicalities3WrongThe Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election.
1819952017-04-192017-04-19themusicgod11WrongRussia is found guilty of crimes against humanity at the ICJ
1819962017-04-192017-06-09themusicgod14Right10 or fewer political parties win seats in the 2017 UK election
1819972017-04-192018-01-01two2thehead2RightFox News cuts ties with Bill O'Reilly
1819982017-04-192017-06-09jbeshir4WrongPolitics, UK - Theresa May attends a TV debate with one or more leaders of other parties before the next UK General Election.
1819992017-04-192017-07-01jbeshir5WrongPolitics, UK - A new Labour leadership election is announced before the end of June 2017.
1820002017-04-192017-05-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - Tennessee Senate passes bill permitting drivers to put "In God We Trust" on their license plates by the end of April 2017.
1820012017-04-192017-06-21jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - 6th District of Georgia is won by a Democrat at the runoff in June.
1820062017-04-202017-06-09jbeshir1RightPolitics, UK – An MP or an agent of an MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election.
1820112017-04-202018-07-15ioannes10WrongScotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018
1820122017-04-202019-07-15ioannes11WrongScotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019
1820132017-04-202018-01-01two2thehead1RightJason Chaffetz resigns from congress
1820142017-04-202017-07-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, UK - A spokesperson for the Government states that it intends to retain freedom of movement with the EU, by the end of June 2017.
1820232017-04-222017-04-23themusicgod11WrongPalemoon breaks first in test 1.
1820242017-04-222017-04-23themusicgod11WrongSomething else breaks in test 1
1820312017-04-222020-01-02Vipul Naik4RightOn or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 4 billion views.
1820322017-04-222018-01-02Vipul Naik3RightAs of January 1, 2018, there will be at least five songs with over a billion streams each on Spotify.
1820412017-04-232017-05-08pvoberstein19RightEmmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France.
1820422017-04-232017-04-23Somni1RightRon headcannons Skitter as a trans girl.
1820432017-04-232017-04-25kuudes1RightPresident of France 2017 elections: Macron makes to second round or wins on first round
1820442017-04-232017-04-25kuudes2WrongPresident of France 2017 elections: Fillon makes to second round or wins on first round
1820452017-04-232017-04-25kuudes2RightPresident of France 2017 elections: Le Pen makes to second round or wins on first round
1820462017-04-232017-04-25kuudes1WrongPresident of France 2017 elections: Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round
1820472017-04-232017-04-25kuudes4WrongPresident of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round
1820482017-04-232017-04-30two2thehead1RightPresident of France 2017 elections: Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste)(Incumbent Party) *won't* make it past the first round
1820492017-04-232017-04-23Somni1RightThe message is from Em.
1820572017-04-252017-05-25themusicgod13WrongTrump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico
1820582017-04-252017-12-31themusicgod13WrongTrump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico
1820592017-04-253000-01-01themusicgod12https://gnosis.pm survives longer than predictionbook
1820912017-04-272017-08-01ioannes2RightI go to DEFCON in July 2017
1820922017-04-272017-08-01ioannes2WrongL comes to DEF CON in July 2017
1820932017-04-272017-08-01ioannes4WrongI go to Ethiopia in June or July 2017
1820942017-04-272017-04-29ioannes2WrongTear gas deployed in Berkeley today
1820952017-04-272017-04-29ioannes2WrongFires started during the Berkeley protest today
1820962017-04-272017-08-01ioannes4WrongI go to Kenya in June or July 2017
1820972017-04-282017-10-02Vipul Naik2RightThe Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $125 million in lifetime money raised as of October 1, 2017.
1820982017-04-282018-03-02Vipul Naik2RightThe Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $150 million in lifetime money raised as of March 1, 2018.
1820992017-04-282017-05-06jbeshir1WrongPolitics, Brazil - President Temer's pension reforms pass before the end of 2017-05-05.
1821002017-04-282017-05-03jbeshir2RightTech - SpaceX successfully delivers NROL-76 to orbit, conditional on launch not being aborted.
1821012017-04-282017-05-03jbeshir3RightTech - SpaceX successfully lands the first stage of the NROL-76 launch, conditional on launch not being aborted.
1821022017-04-282017-06-08jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - Trump or a representative announces the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem by the end of the 7th of June.
1821032017-04-292021-01-01Temeraire2Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED.
1821062017-04-302017-05-22Mike1WrongI will stay on the ketogenic diet for at least three weeks starting tomorrow, Monday 1 May.
1821122017-04-302018-12-01themusicgod11W3C VCTF goes to CR
1821152017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821162017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821172017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821182017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821192017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821202017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821212017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821222017-05-012017-06-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016.
1821232017-05-012017-05-01Tommy1If North Korea has another underground nuclear explosion, it will result in an earthquake in the nearby Pacific rim.
1821252017-05-012018-12-31themusicgod113-4 miners do 80%+ of mining for bitcoin [and any other mined cryptocurrency with bigger marketcap in USD than bitcoin]
1821262017-05-012017-06-08neilscott7WrongConservatives will win the general election.
1821342017-05-022027-05-02two2thehead4Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address
1821402017-05-032017-06-03ioannes1RightJune 2017 parents loan payment > $1200
1821512017-05-062021-01-01themusicgod15Zuckerberg runs for POTUS, takes part in primaries for one of {Republican, Democrat} party and lasts to be at least in top 5 candidates
1821522017-05-062017-07-07baltemose3WrongJuly 7, 2017 will live in infamy .
1821552017-05-072017-05-13jbeshir1RightPolitics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms leave committee, having voted on amendments, to be subsequently considered by the Chamber of Deputies before the end of 2017-05-12.
1821562017-05-072017-06-15jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - The Pentagon is confirmed to have agreed a lease or sublet of an apartment in Trump Tower in New York by a news outlet by the 14th of June 2017.
1821572017-05-072017-06-21jbeshir1RightPolitics, US, New Orleans - All three remaining Confederacy monuments that Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the end of the 20th of June 2017.
1821582017-05-072017-06-21jbeshir1RightPolitics, US, New Orleans - At least one of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove is removed by the end of the 20th of June, 2017.
1821592017-05-072017-06-21jbeshir4RightPolitics, US, New Orleans - At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017.
1821672017-05-072017-05-09kuudes1RightUnsong chapter 71 will be very similar to third line of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clod_and_the_Pebble "But for another gives its ease".
1821682017-05-072017-05-22kuudes1RightLast chapter of Unsong will be numbered 72
1821742017-05-082017-05-20Orian22RightMacron is going to select a prime minister
1821802017-05-092017-06-09splorridge3RightLabour will win in Nottingham East.
1821812017-05-092017-06-09splorridge2RightLabour will win in Nottingham South.
1821822017-05-092017-06-09splorridge2RightLabour will win in Midlothian
1821832017-05-092017-06-09splorridge3RightLabour will win in Cambridge
1821842017-05-092017-07-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, SJ - Everyday Feminism shuts down, or announces the scaling back of creating new articles by at least 50% due to funding constraints, before the end of June 2017
1821852017-05-092017-05-28themusicgod11WrongMichael Chong elected leader of Conservative Party of Canada
1821862017-05-102017-05-24bobpage5Wrongc will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24
1821872017-05-102017-08-10Somni1There is a YMCA in San Francisco with a gender neutral changing room.
1821882017-05-102018-01-31MrBubu2Umsatz für Fleischersatzprodukte in Deutschland für 2017 wird größer sein als der 2 Jahresdurchschnitt, i.e. der von 2015 und 2016
1821892017-05-102017-06-18jbeshir2RightPolitics, US - Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate connections between the Trump Campaign and Russia by the 17th of June 2017.
1821902017-05-102017-06-18jbeshir2WrongPolitics, US - Representative of the FBI states the FBI investigation into connections between the Trump Campaign and the Russian Government has been closed by the 17th of June 2017.
1822092017-05-122017-05-26jbeshir2WrongPolitics, Iraq - Islamic State holds no territory in Mosul by the end of the 25th of May.
1822122017-05-122017-06-20jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - Flynn challenges the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017.
1822242017-05-142017-12-31shm6WrongEther (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017.
1822252017-05-142017-12-01ioannes20WrongMore than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017
1822372017-05-162017-05-20jbeshir1WrongTech, Google I/O 2017 - Copyless Paste is announced as going to be integrated into Gboard.
1822382017-05-162017-06-15John812819WrongPresident Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office
1822392017-05-162017-06-20npcuck1WrongEthan fails a class
1822402017-05-172017-06-09penten3Wrong2017 UK general election - Bath constituency elects conservative MP
1822412017-05-172017-06-09penten3Right2017 UK general election - North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP
1822422017-05-172017-06-09penten3Right2017 UK general election - Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP
1822432017-05-172017-06-01sjy3RightBTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017
1822442017-05-172020-01-01SeriousPod5RightTrump's wall will never be built. At most, very small portions might. Definitely no wall the length of the border, as was his main campaign promise.
1822462017-05-182017-05-24jbeshir2WrongTech, Google I/O 2017 - Google announces the integration of an ad blocker, including one acting only for some types or classes or behaviours of advertisement into Chrome
1822472017-05-182017-05-24jbeshir4WrongTech, Google I/O 2017 - Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year.
1822482017-05-182017-05-24jbeshir1WrongTech, Google I/O 2017 - A Google Home/Google Wifi combined product is announced.
1822492017-05-182017-05-24jbeshir1WrongTech, Google I/O 2017 - At least one new Pixel phone is announced.
1822502017-05-182017-05-24jbeshir2WrongTech, Google I/O 2017 - A standalone VR headset sold by Google is announced.
1822512017-05-182025-01-01themusicgod18Trump creates "world peace" before leaving office
1822522017-05-182017-05-25themusicgod11Rightzip file has episode 385 in it
1822622017-05-182021-01-01jprettner4Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms.
1822632017-05-182036-01-01jprettner1The average age of the United States senate will be 48 years old by 2035
1822692017-05-192018-12-01burning.harvest1RightThe Democrats will take control of at least one Congressional house in the midterms.
1822702017-05-192018-01-01burning.harvest2WrongAnother Nazi-punching college incident will occur this year.
1822712017-05-192018-01-01burning.harvest20WrongTrump will not be president at the beginning of 2018.
1822722017-05-192017-07-13burning.harvest5RightI will get a 5 on the APUSH exam.
1822732017-05-192018-01-01burning.harvest6RightI will get above average on the PSAT.
1822812017-05-202019-01-16erin2Even if net neutrality regulations are retained through Pai's chair, they will be enforced less than when enacted, and ISPs will continue most noncompliant practices unchallenged
1822842017-05-202017-06-11quatrefoil1RightI will go to a certain meetup.
1822852017-05-202017-05-27quatrefoil1RightProf will present the paper next week.
1822862017-05-202017-06-05quatrefoil1WrongI go to CRev.
1822872017-05-202027-05-20two2thehead2RightJared Kushner is the person of interest mentioned in the Washington post article
1822922017-05-202017-07-15Neonblitz2WrongBrazilian President Michel Temer will fall, renounce or have impeachment procedures initiated against him until mid-July 2017.
1822972017-05-212017-05-28Mike3RightI will continue to allocate thirty minutes a day to journalling and task management for the first week of the experiment and will not miss a session.
1823072017-05-232017-06-09ikmacbeth5RightThere will a hung parliament as a result of the current UK general election
1823082017-05-232017-06-09lauragonzalez7WrongThe Tory party will win the UK election with a majority.
1823092017-05-232019-06-04Neonblitz6WrongIndonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019.
1823152017-05-242017-11-03playablecharacter2WrongI leave east coast disappointed, sad, filled with regret, not worth it, etc
1823162017-05-242018-03-01playablecharacter3WrongI convince Issa that the East (TM) is worth living in,,..,,.,,..,,.
1823172017-05-242017-08-27shm1Investor, producer or high-ranking internal official of Game of Thrones staff blames shorter season on piracy.
1823202017-05-242017-11-03playablecharacter2RightI will change once I go east (I fucking better!)
1823212017-05-242017-06-01sebnow1RightBTC will exceed $2500 USD on Bitstamp by the end of May 2017
1823272017-05-252017-05-25bobpage2RightAlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie
1823282017-05-252017-05-25elephantower1Wrongwillow tree instrumental song
1823292017-05-252017-06-01two2thehead1Withdrawn[[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 1) Clap my hands
1823302017-05-252017-06-01two2thehead1Withdrawn[[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 2) Snap my fingers
1823312017-05-252017-06-01two2thehead1Withdrawn[[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 3) Awaken Cthulhu so He may take his rightful place as ruler of this puny planet
1823322017-05-252018-12-31themusicgod13Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada
1823332017-05-252017-07-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - The leaker of the photos of the Manchester bombing is publicly identified before the end of June.
1823342017-05-252017-12-31Somni1WrongI'll complete Timeless Consent before the end of the year.
1823352017-05-252017-07-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Greg Gianforte apologises to the reporter he was charged with the assault of, including an apology that continues to understate things so long as it includes admission of error, by end of June.
1823362017-05-252017-08-01lavalamp2Wrongbitcoin: trades above $3600 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July.
1823382017-05-252017-08-01lavalamp2Wrongbitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July.
1823392017-05-252017-08-01lavalamp2Wrongbitcoin: trades above $4200 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July.
1823402017-05-252017-08-01lavalamp2Wrongbitcoin: trades above $5500 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July.
1823412017-05-252017-07-01jbeshir3RightPolitics, Venezuela - President Maduro remains in power through the end of June.
1823422017-05-252017-08-01lavalamp4Wrongbitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July.
1823432017-05-252017-08-01lavalamp6Wrongbitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July.
1823562017-05-262018-02-01themusicgod11Rightbitcoin hard fork occurs
1823572017-05-262022-06-01Emmanuel M. Smith11As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.
1823582017-05-262020-01-01Emmanuel M. Smith4WrongI will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame.
1823592017-05-262021-05-02Emmanuel M. Smith2At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business.
1823642017-05-282018-11-30dipitashick3RightDemocrats gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 election.
1823672017-05-282017-06-04Mike2Wrong[This week, I will get] less than 49 hours of sleep
1823682017-05-282017-06-04Mike2Right[This week, I will get] between 49 and 56 hours of sleep
1823692017-05-282017-06-04Mike2Wrong[This week, I will get] more than 56 hours of sleep
1823752017-05-292017-07-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - Donald Trump announces partial but not full withdrawal from the Paris Agreement before the end of June 2017.
1823762017-05-292017-07-01jbeshir1WrongBusiness, UK - Alex Cruz is no longer the chief executive of British Airways by the end of June.
1823772017-05-292017-07-01jbeshir1RightTech - AMD Radeon Vega Frontier Edition launches before the end of June.
1823782017-05-292017-06-04jbeshir1WrongTech, Computex - Before the end of Computex, AMD states an intended month for the release of Ryzen Threadripper CPUs.
1823792017-05-292018-06-01jbeshir2WrongPersonal - I am following a reducetarian diet such that at least half of my meals involve none of meat, fish (excl bivalves), cheese, or egg as of June 2018.
1823802017-05-292018-06-01jbeshir2WrongPersonal - I am following a vegetarian diet such that I view it as morally unacceptable to eat meat in non-emergency circumstances as of June 2018.
1823812017-05-292018-07-16jbeshir3WrongPersonal - I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018.
1823822017-05-292018-07-01jbeshir2WrongPersonal - I decide to move at least 10% of my EA donation budget to an organisation in the animal welfare cause area before June 2018.
1823832017-05-292018-06-01jbeshir2WrongPersonal - I decide to move at least 80% of my EA donation budget to existential risk charities by June 2018.
1823842017-05-292017-09-01jbeshir1RightCommunity, Rationalist - Kernel Project is moved into Manchester by end of August.
1823852017-05-292018-01-01jbeshir2WrongPersonal - I move to remote working from Manchester by the end of 2017.
1824222017-05-312027-05-31themusicgod11More than 50% of households in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached.
1824232017-05-312027-05-31themusicgod11More than 50% of households who have motorized vehicles in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached.
1824242017-05-312017-05-31elephantower1Wrongnh legislature democrat-controlled
1824272017-06-012017-06-01bobpage3RightToday, Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord
1824282017-06-012017-06-08two2thehead2RightSpaceX's Falcon 9 will successfully launch within one week
1824302017-06-012018-12-31themusicgod12WrongThe Matrix "The Next Generation" / prequels released by Warner Bros
1824342017-06-012017-07-01themusicgod11WrongUbuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually SystemD
1824352017-06-012017-07-01themusicgod11RightUbuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is something else
1824362017-06-012020-06-01bobpage17WrongThe Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election
1824392017-06-022017-09-21taryneast2Wrongby age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue
1824402017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824412017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824422017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be less for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824432017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824442017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824452017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824462017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824472017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824482017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824492017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824502017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of mobile web pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824512017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of mobile web pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824522017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1WrongThe total number of mobile web pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824532017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightThe total number of mobile web pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016.
1824542017-06-022018-01-02Vipul Naik6RightDespacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone.
1824552017-06-022018-01-02Vipul Naik3RightShape of You will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018.
1824612017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1RightServerFault will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/serverfault.com
1824622017-06-022017-07-02Vipul Naik1WrongYelp (website) will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/yelp.com
1824652017-06-032018-12-31themusicgod11Moore's law stops : bitcoin hashrate has not doubled in past 18 months.
1824762017-06-032056-12-31themusicgod12arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056
1824772017-06-032019-01-01Paul.David.Carr1WrongPenn Jillette will get high for charity by the end of 2018.
1824802017-06-032017-07-02ioannes2RightParents' loan July payment > $999
1824812017-06-032017-07-02ioannes1RightParents' loan July payment > $1400
1824982017-06-052022-06-05Peteris1Merlon intelligence will reach a billion dollar valuation in 5 years
1824992017-06-052019-06-05Peteris1WrongMerlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years
1825072017-06-062017-12-31themusicgod1170 tests, chi-square on {days of wearing sunglasses,I have headache the next day} results in a statistically significant relationship at p=0.05 level
1825082017-06-062017-06-14peter_hurford2RightJD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017
1825092017-06-062017-06-14peter_hurford1WrongI will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017
1825102017-06-062017-06-14peter_hurford1WrongI will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017
1825112017-06-062017-06-14peter_hurford1WrongJD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017
1825122017-06-062017-06-14peter_hurford1RightJD and I will successfully deliver the contracted work by the 14 June client deadline
1825132017-06-062017-07-06peter_hurford1WrongSomeone in the ID will win the US Powerball lottery (and I hear about it) by the end of 6 July
1825142017-06-062017-06-20peter_hurford2RightJD or I will <REDACTED CODE RFRI> by the end of 20 June
1825172017-06-062017-06-21jbeshir2WrongTech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $550 new in the US.
1825182017-06-062022-06-06themusicgod11Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated
1825192017-06-062022-06-06themusicgod12Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war}
1825202017-06-062022-06-06themusicgod11Iran will provide nuclear weapons to a terrorist group that will use one of them against israel or the united states
1825212017-06-062022-06-06themusicgod12France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them.
1825242017-06-072017-12-31Nve2Right60 Bluechip Cryptocurrencies with individual market caps of over $100million would have existed by this point
1825252017-06-072017-06-08bobpage4WrongNon-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday
1825262017-06-072017-06-09penten1RightI feel happier an more relaxed on Friday 9th than I did on Wednesday 7th June (slight anxiety)
1825622017-06-082017-06-09themusicgod11Anita Sarkeesian has read the Qur'an
1825632017-06-082017-06-09jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Financial Choice Act is passed by the US House of Representatives before the end of June.
1825642017-06-082018-06-01jbeshir1WithdrawnPersonal - My virtual betting spreadsheet demonstrates a profit after 50 virtual bets.
1825672017-06-082018-12-31themusicgod13WrongUS Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm]
1825682017-06-082018-06-07themusicgod13WrongRussia compromised the integrity of the 2017 UK election process or either labour or conservatives found guilty of illegally colluding with russian government
1825792017-06-092021-01-01themusicgod11Amber Rudd next Prime Minister of the UK (post whoever wins #GE2017
1825802017-06-092017-06-22penten2RightMinority government in the UK
1825882017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My MTH445 grade will be] F
1825892017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My MTH445 grade will be] D
1825902017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My MTH445 grade will be] C
1825912017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My MTH445 grade will be] B
1825922017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Right[My MTH445 grade will be] A
1825992017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] B
1826002017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil3Right[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] A
1826012017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] F
1826022017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] D
1826032017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] C
1826042017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Wrong[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] B
1826052017-06-102017-06-25quatrefoil2Right[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] A
1826092017-06-102019-12-31themusicgod116WrongBitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs.
1826122017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk1By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 62.5kg (137.79lb).
1826132017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk1By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 60.0kg (132.28lb).
1826142017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk1By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 55.0kg (121.25lb).
1826152017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk1By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: I have a bout ((chess)boxing, MMA, kickboxing, or otherwise) (amateur, white collar, pro, or otherwise).
1826162017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk1By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: 5x5 overhead press @ bodyweight (measured immediately before first set)
1826172017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk2By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Deadlift 1x5 @ 3x bodyweight (measured immediately before the set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps.
1826182017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk1By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 1.75x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps.
1826192017-06-112018-01-01KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk1By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 2.00x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps.
1826332017-06-122021-06-10themusicgod11Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years)
1826342017-06-122017-09-11themusicgod11WrongBackdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 3 months)
1826352017-06-122018-06-10Quintrino1WithdrawnThis will work
1826392017-06-122018-06-10Quintrino1Withdrawnthis will work
1826402017-06-122018-06-10Quintrino1Withdrawnthis will work
1826432017-06-122017-06-14peter_hurford1RightThe first run tomorrow (June 13) for NNP succeeds
1826752017-06-132017-08-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - Conservative Party announces, in some manner, the intent to retain the triple lock on pensions throughout the current parliament, before the end of July 2017.
1826762017-06-132017-08-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017, the DUP vote in favour, and as of their most recent public statements are not in coalition with the Conservatives.
1826772017-06-132017-08-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - The Conservative Party announces that plans for cuts to winter fuel payments are either scrapped or significantly reduced before the end of July 2017.
1826782017-06-132017-08-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, UK - The Conservative Party announces that their policy or backed legislative plan is now to scrap the reduction to housing benefit for those with a spare bedroom, with the announcement coming before the end of July 2017.
1826792017-06-132017-07-15jbeshir2WrongCommunity, EA - Ethtruism.com's affiliated AMF fundraiser will get donations amounting to saving at least two lives in expectation, by the 14th of July.
1829092017-06-152018-01-02Pablo Stafforini7RightOn January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini).
1830412017-06-162020-11-07DragonGod3Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections.
1830422017-06-162020-04-23DragonGod4Macron will win the French 2020 elections
1830432017-06-162020-04-23DragonGod4Macron will complete his term successfully
1830442017-06-162017-06-19jbeshir1WrongPersonal - I find my wallet
1830452017-06-162018-01-05two2thehead3RightSteve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017
1830482017-06-172033-01-01bobpage5No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033
1830492017-06-172017-06-18crabman2WrongOn 2017-06-18 gismeteo will show that there was rain on 2017-06-17 in Moscow
1830502017-06-172017-06-23crabman3WrongДо четверга включительно я узнаю, что получил смску, где меня вызывают в суд насчет митинга
1830512017-06-172017-06-16crabman1Wrong2017-06-16 Слава скажет, что додзе закончилось, до 22-30 включительно
1830522017-06-172017-06-23crabman3Rightкурс доллара по ЦБ за 2017-06-23 будет отличаться от курса за 2017-06-16 больше, чем на 50 копеек
1830532017-06-172017-06-24crabman3WrongЗакон об анонимайзерах примут до 2017-06-23 включительно
1830542017-06-172017-06-17crabman1RightВ футбольном матче Россия-Новая Зеландия, который должен быть 2017-06-17, Россия победит не позже, чем 2017-06-23
1830552017-06-172017-06-23crabman1WrongСлава Матюхин увеличит ТУ САМУЮ статью про додзе хотя бы на 100 байт до 2017-06-23 20:00 по Москве
1830562017-06-172017-06-23crabman1WrongЯ сделаю питч секции про предсказания на рациональном додзе 2017-06-23
1830572017-06-172017-06-23crabman2RightНачиная с 2017-06-17 по 2017-06-23 20:00 на медузе появится новость, которая скажет, что на кого-то завели уголовное дело по поводу произошедшего на митингах 12 июня
1830582017-06-172017-06-17crabman1WrongChina’s GDP for 2017-06-17 is at least 50% of sum of GDPs of all countries
1830592017-06-172017-06-23crabman2WrongПо истории gismeteo в какой-нибудь момент между 2017-06-16 и 2017-06-22 (включительно и включительно) в Москве будет 25 градусов или выше
1830602017-06-172017-07-17crabman1RightChalker выложит статью про то, откуда он взял мой пароль, до 2017-07-16 включительно
1830632017-06-172018-01-01Alaric2WrongВ этом году (2017) выйдет последняя книга цикла Веры Камши "Отблески Этерны"
1830702017-06-172018-03-19crabman4RightA candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections
1830712017-06-182018-12-31themusicgod12Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future
1830742017-06-182025-06-13crabman2I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research
1830752017-06-182018-06-17crabman2RightIf I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in a year
1830762017-06-182018-01-16crabman2WrongIf I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in half a year
1830772017-06-182017-08-17crabman3RightIf I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months
1831082017-06-192019-01-01bobpage2WrongI will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019
1831092017-06-192020-01-01bobpage2WrongI will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020
1831102017-06-192021-01-01bobpage2I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021
1831112017-06-192018-01-01bobpage1WrongI will be employed (excluding self-employment) at some point before 2018
1831122017-06-192117-01-01bobpage2I will step on Mars before I die
1831612017-06-202017-08-20peter_hurford3WrongI will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017
1833102017-06-222017-08-20crabman2WrongIf I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any).
1833182017-06-232017-07-04themusicgod11Wrongaljazeera shut down
1833252017-06-252017-07-20jamesaguilar1Right[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will die
1833262017-06-252017-07-20jamesaguilar1Right[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will be killed by some entity other than Kellhus
1833272017-06-252017-07-20jamesaguilar1Right[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed or its future destruction will be strongly implied.
1833282017-06-252017-07-20jamesaguilar1Wrong[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed by Kellhus.
1833292017-06-252017-07-20jamesaguilar1Wrong[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will be killed
1833302017-06-252017-07-20jamesaguilar1Wrong[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will find the Heron Spear.
1833312017-06-252017-07-20jamesaguilar1Wrong[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the Heron Spear will be used
1833322017-06-252017-09-21quatrefoil2WrongI have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17.
1833332017-06-252017-06-26themusicgod11RightDebian boots successfully without breaking Ubuntu or Linpus on Hedy (my laptop)
1833362017-06-252017-06-27two2thehead3Right[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches AND lands successfully
1834432017-06-272017-11-01themusicgod12RightUbuntu 17.10 released
1834572017-06-282017-08-01jbeshir1WrongCrime, UK - Suspects arrested in connection to masked men who ransacked house in Robroyston, Glasgow by end of July, and there are media reports of this.
1834582017-06-282017-07-06jbeshir2RightPolitics, Venezuela - Helicopter used in attack on Supreme Court is found before the 6th of July.
1834592017-06-282017-07-06jbeshir2WrongPolitics, Venezuela - Oscar Perez found and captured by the government by the 6th of July.
1835112017-06-302017-07-05quatrefoil1Right[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Mack Meller
1835122017-06-302017-07-05quatrefoil1Wrong[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Joey Mallick
1835152017-06-302018-01-01crabman1RightЛизу позовут на оффлайн-собеседования в яндекс на интерна-ресерч-девелопера в 2017 #other_people
1835212017-07-012018-01-03Vipul Naik1Wrong[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between August 1 and August 31, 2017
1835222017-07-012018-01-03Vipul Naik4Right[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between September 1 and September 30, 2017
1835232017-07-012018-01-03Vipul Naik1Wrong[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between October 1 and December 31, 2017
1835242017-07-012018-01-03Vipul Naik1Wrong[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] never
1835252017-07-012018-01-03Vipul Naik1Wrong[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] on or after January 1, 2018
1835262017-07-012018-01-02Vipul Naik6Right[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Despacito
1835272017-07-012018-01-02Vipul Naik2Wrong[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] See You Again
1835282017-07-012018-01-02Vipul Naik2Wrong[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Shape Of You
1835292017-07-012018-01-02Vipul Naik2Wrong[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released on or after June 1, 2017
1835302017-07-012018-01-02Vipul Naik2Wrong[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released before June 1, 2017, that is not in the above list
1835312017-07-022017-07-03two2thehead1Wrong[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather]
1835322017-07-022017-07-03two2thehead1Wrong[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches and lands successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather]
1835332017-07-022017-08-02ioannes1RightAugust payment of parents loan > $1400
1835342017-07-022017-08-02ioannes2RightAugust payment of parents loan > $700
1836462017-07-072017-08-07peter_hurford1RightEA Grants receives >=$1M USD in total fundraising requests from all submitted 2017 applications
1836472017-07-082017-07-08crabman1WrongMy thinkpad's battery will run out during the bus drive to Summer School
1836482017-07-082017-08-15jbeshir1WrongBusiness, US - Charles Payne resigns from Fox before the 15th of August 2017.
1836492017-07-082017-08-09jbeshir5RightPolitics, UK - Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August.
1836502017-07-082017-07-17jbeshir1RightPolitics, Syria - No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first.
1836512017-07-092017-09-01jbeshir4WrongTech - Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017.
1838172017-07-132030-12-31themusicgod13I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease
1838422017-07-152017-07-15saneoualhadath1Wronghttp://saneoualhadath.me
1838432017-07-152019-01-01themusicgod11WrongMaduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address
1838442017-07-152017-09-15crabman1RightI will meet with someone from my Summer school (ЛШ) cycle whom I didn't know before during the next 2 months #personal
1838452017-07-152017-10-15crabman2WrongI will start working for pay during the next 3 months
1838462017-07-152017-08-16crabman1WrongI will move to L29ah's apartments during the next month
1838472017-07-152017-09-16crabman3WrongI will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal
1838482017-07-152017-08-16crabman4Withdrawn#personal If I try psychotherapy in the next 1 months, I will think it's been time and money and other resources well pent
1839082017-07-182017-10-01ioannes8WrongTrump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538)
1839092017-07-182017-10-16ioannes4RightI go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017
1839812017-07-192017-07-20crabman2WrongPrice of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0)
1839822017-07-192017-08-20crabman6WrongEthereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20
1840092017-07-212017-09-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - General Sessions Judge Sam Benningfield's standing order such that prisoner's sentences are reduced in exchange for vasectomies is no longer in effect at the start of the 1st of September 2017.
1840102017-07-212017-08-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, EU - EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of July 2017.
1840112017-07-212017-09-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, EU - EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017.
1840122017-07-212017-07-29jbeshir1WrongPolitics, Italy - C-Star docks in Catania before the end of the 28th of July 2017.
1840242017-07-212018-02-01iCrown2Right2017 will be the second hottest year since 1880 according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index published by NASA/GISS.
1840362017-07-222017-09-01jbeshir2WrongPersonal, Business Interactions – BT has not incorrectly billed my bank account by the 1st of September 2017.
1842072017-07-242019-01-01Dapple1RightUSS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018
1842082017-07-242017-07-25jbeshir1RightPolitics, Canada - Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy.
1842092017-07-242017-09-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, Turkey - Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September.
1842102017-07-242017-09-01jbeshir5WrongPolitics, US - Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017.
1842192017-07-252018-01-01michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com5Wronga commercial aircraft will crash in the US before 2018, resulting in casualties.
1842202017-07-252021-01-21michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com8There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)
1842212017-07-252017-12-25michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com3RightMy friend will be pregnant before Christmas 2017
1842222017-07-252017-08-08michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com1WrongThe fresh scar on my leg will be healed in 2 weeks
1842272017-07-252017-08-01two2thehead1RightNorth Korea tests another ICBM within one week
1842282017-07-252018-01-05two2thehead1WrongJeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017
1842292017-07-252017-07-26crabman1RightHabidatum will invite me to non-paid internship
1842322017-07-252017-07-25Adam Zerner1RightThey don't serve a meal on the plane
1843202017-07-272024-12-31themusicgod113Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft
1843232017-07-272017-07-27crabman1WrongMy supervisors will tell me that I did wrong things and was not effective, or that I should really change what I am doing, e.g. be less academic
1843242017-07-272017-08-13crabman1WithdrawnIf I apply to http://algorythm.tech, they will accept me #personal
1843252017-07-272017-08-10crabman1WithdrawnIf I do http://algorythm.tech test exercise, it will take me 12-36 hours #planning
1843262017-07-282017-08-06themusicgod11WrongBoth backups fail
1843432017-07-302018-01-02Vipul Naik2RightDespacito will reach 4 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 4 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone.
1844132017-08-012017-09-01jbeshir1RightPersonal, Business Interactions - To my knowledge, BT has not caused a phone line other than my own to cease working during the process of switching my line over before the start of September.
1844142017-08-012017-08-02jbeshir1WrongPersonal, Business Interactions - My Halifax card arrives today.
1844152017-08-012017-08-07jbeshir1WrongPersonal, Business Interactions - My Halifax card arrives before next Monday.
1844162017-08-012017-08-14crabman1WithdrawnIf I do algorythm.tech test exercise, it will take me between 5 and 30 hours #planning #personal
1844352017-08-022017-08-04leo_gri3WrongTrump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 - 3 (2017)
1844382017-08-032028-06-01icrbow2Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028
1844392017-08-032018-12-30icrbow2Wrong1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018
1844402017-08-032019-12-30icrbow2Wrong1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019
1844412017-08-032017-08-03quatrefoil1RightTWOPENCES is in the most recent North American Scrabble dictionary
1844422017-08-032017-08-27bendini1WrongConor McGregor wins against Floyd Mayweather Jr.
1844462017-08-042017-08-06Michael Dickens3WrongParagon Exhibition Tournament winner is Team Reborn
1844742017-08-052017-09-04two2thehead2RightUS Navy conducts a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea within 30 days
1845382017-08-072017-10-01btrettel2RightI will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes
1845532017-08-082017-09-17crabman2WrongThe company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking.
1845542017-08-082017-09-01crabman2WrongThe company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts)
1845552017-08-082017-09-17crabman1WrongThe company I am interning at will hire Ildar
1845562017-08-082017-08-15Pablo Stafforini1RightAdam Grant won't revise or retract his article 'Differences between Men and Women are Vastly Exaggerated' in response to Scott Alexander's criticisms (http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/08/07/contra-grant-on-exaggerated-differences/).
1845782017-08-092020-11-03gurgus14WrongDonald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached.
1845792017-08-092020-11-03gurgus11Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term
1845802017-08-092018-01-01gurgus3RightThere will not be another general election in the UK in 2017
1845812017-08-092017-11-19gurgus1RightRafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017
1845822017-08-092017-11-19gurgus1RightThe year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal
1845992017-08-112017-09-10two2thehead11Wrong[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles
1846002017-08-112017-09-10two2thehead10Wrong[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles
1846012017-08-112017-09-10two2thehead11Wrong[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles
1846042017-08-122018-11-10atomicspaceman1Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities
1846052017-08-132017-08-13tmarkov1RightI will get up from bed before 8am on Aug 12, 2017
1846062017-08-132017-08-13tmarkov1WrongI will get out of the apartment before 9:15am on Aug 12, 2017
1846112017-08-132017-12-01btrettel1RightI will be admitted to the 2017 Envision Conference
1846122017-08-132018-07-01themusicgod12WrongCharlottesville car driver shown to be antifa escaping from BLM protesters
1846132017-08-132019-07-09themusicgod15WrongCharlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros
1846142017-08-132019-07-01themusicgod12WrongCharlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs)
1846152017-08-132019-07-09themusicgod13Right Charlottesville car driver supports Trump
1846932017-08-152018-01-01btrettel4WrongMy FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017
1847472017-08-172017-12-31themusicgod13WrongBefore Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa
1848022017-08-192019-12-31themusicgod11WrongSolaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar
1848032017-08-192017-08-19quatrefoil2WrongThe first time my dad returns home today, he has at least one pair of eclipse glasses
1848042017-08-192025-01-28themusicgod16It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government
1848052017-08-202047-08-17themusicgod12Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years
1848082017-08-202017-09-05Pablo Stafforini4Right In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%.
1850272017-08-232019-08-23quatrefoil1WrongJosh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years.
1851442017-08-252017-10-24MrBubu1Wrong[Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen
1851452017-08-252017-10-24MrBubu1Right[Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin
1851462017-08-252017-08-29themusicgod14RightFlooding in texas, at least 1 casualty
1851472017-08-262018-06-16themusicgod11more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region
1851482017-08-262017-12-31themusicgod11RightVenezuela defaults on its debt
1851492017-08-262024-01-01themusicgod11early election call in ontario
1851962017-08-282018-01-01playablecharacter7WrongNorth Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018
1852242017-08-292020-09-01OpenPhilUnofficial1On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field
1852252017-08-292018-10-01OpenPhilUnofficial1By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions)
1852262017-08-292026-08-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect)
1852272017-08-292026-05-01OpenPhilUnofficial1CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy
1852282017-08-292026-05-01OpenPhilUnofficial1CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges
1852292017-08-292027-03-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success
1852302017-08-292027-03-01OpenPhilUnofficial2 Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success
1852312017-08-292026-11-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success
1852322017-08-292026-11-01OpenPhilUnofficial2Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success
1852332017-08-292027-03-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success
1852342017-08-292027-03-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success
1852352017-08-292027-07-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success
1852362017-08-292027-07-01OpenPhilUnofficial2Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success
1852372017-08-292027-04-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success
1852382017-08-292027-04-01OpenPhilUnofficial2Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success
1852392017-08-292027-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial2Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success
1852402017-08-292027-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial3Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success
1852412017-08-292026-12-01OpenPhilUnofficial2Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success
1852422017-08-292020-08-15saskboy2By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business
1852682017-08-302027-10-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work
1852692017-08-302029-10-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01
1852702017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01
1852712017-08-302022-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01
1852722017-08-302027-12-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success
1852732017-08-302027-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success
1852742017-08-302027-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success
1852752017-08-302026-10-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success
1852762017-08-302026-10-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success
1852772017-08-302021-10-01OpenPhilUnofficial3The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01
1852782017-08-302021-09-01OpenPhilUnofficial2Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over
1852792017-08-302021-09-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over
1852802017-08-302021-09-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over
1852812017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial1[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500
1852822017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial1[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400
1852832017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial280,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017
1852842017-08-302019-02-01OpenPhilUnofficial1Right[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000
1852852017-08-302019-02-01OpenPhilUnofficial2Wrong[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000
1852862017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial5Right[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less)
1852872017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial8Wrong[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth)
1852882017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial5Wrong[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth)
1852892017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial6Wrong[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth)
1853012017-08-302019-12-01OpenPhilUnofficial3By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000
1853022017-08-302019-12-01OpenPhilUnofficial2By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000
1853032017-08-302027-04-01OpenPhilUnofficial3RightNick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016
1853042017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial2On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely)
1853052017-08-302020-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial2On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment)
1853062017-08-302019-01-01OpenPhilUnofficial2The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016
1853822017-08-312017-08-31elephantower1RightDan Malloy is a Dem
1853832017-08-312027-01-01themusicgod13Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA.
1853842017-08-312030-01-01saskboy2"SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels."
1853952017-09-022018-03-03themusicgod11WrongJames Damore running his own business
1854092017-09-042022-01-01themusicgod11Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court
1855352017-09-072067-09-08two2thehead3[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer
1856132017-09-092018-05-01themusicgod11Ubuntu 18.04 released, not totally unusable
1856142017-09-092017-09-10crabman1WrongЯ не опоздаю на прыжок к 11:00. (если опоздаем все вместе из-за того, что я встречал Сашу, то не считается)
1856182017-09-102027-09-01themusicgod11S.M. is gay
1856852017-09-122017-10-12two2thehead2Right[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Face scanning camera
1856862017-09-122017-10-12two2thehead1Right[Verge iphone 8 rumours] $999+ price
1856872017-09-122017-10-12two2thehead1Right[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Wireless charging
1856912017-09-122100-01-01themusicgod11Wogs do not differ, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl but not limited to 50-65% compliance )
1856922017-09-122100-01-01themusicgod11Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance )
1856932017-09-122100-01-01themusicgod11Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance )
1857962017-09-152020-01-01themusicgod110WrongTrump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable
1858052017-09-172018-01-17regex2WithdrawnI will get four A's this term
1858072017-09-172018-01-17regex1RightI will get no worse than a B- for any class this term
1859632017-09-202027-09-21two2thehead2Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum
1859642017-09-212017-09-24themusicgod12WrongEnd of the world/Nibiru collides with earth, not including(or at least beginning with) a human-made nuclear weapons catastrophe
1859652017-09-212017-12-31themusicgod13WrongSomeone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians
1860262017-09-232060-01-01themusicgod11Libertarian Party of in Canada fields full slate(currently 338) candidates in a federal election
1860272017-09-232060-01-01themusicgod11Libertarian Party of Canada receives >2.1% of the vote in any federal election
1861732017-09-292027-09-29themusicgod12Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls)
1862482017-10-022017-12-12elephantower1WrongRussell was involved in the Gamby shooting (not exclusive with Ray shooting)
1862492017-10-022017-12-12elephantower2WrongA stereo thief shot Gamby
1862502017-10-022017-12-12elephantower2Wrongbrown shot gamby
1862562017-10-022017-12-01ioannes5WrongTrump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls)
1862862017-10-032018-02-01Athrithalix8WrongThe first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit.
1862872017-10-032018-02-01Athrithalix2RightThe first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will be declared successful, whether it meets all objectives or not.
1862882017-10-032022-10-01Athrithalix2The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017.
1862892017-10-032018-10-02Athrithalix1RightNevada will pass no further gun control laws as a result of the October shooting.
1862902017-10-032018-10-03Athrithalix1RightBoris Johnson will not be sacked over recent Brexit issues within the next year.
1862912017-10-032019-01-11Athrithalix1WrongNintendo announces Melee HD for Switch before end of 2018.
1862922017-10-032019-01-01Athrithalix1RightNintendo announces a new instalment in the Super Smash Bros franchise before the end of 2018.
1862932017-10-032026-01-01Athrithalix1Lockheed Martin's Mars lander concept (as presented at IAC 2017) will be abandoned without ever being built.
1862942017-10-032019-10-03Athrithalix3WrongThe Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least.
1862952017-10-032018-12-31themusicgod12LUST ICO turns out to be a scam
1863282017-10-042019-10-04Michael Dickens2(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar
1863292017-10-042017-12-31themusicgod11https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmCDxmZI3I8 is censored
1864142017-10-072023-05-22themusicgod11bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs
1864152017-10-082019-01-01bobpage2WrongStephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS
1864162017-10-082019-01-01bobpage2Wronghttps://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies
1864172017-10-082019-01-01bobpage2RightI will use IRC in 2018
1864182017-10-082019-01-01bobpage2WrongI will move before 2019
1865412017-10-102017-12-31themusicgod11Rightdawla al islamyya 'completely defeated' in iraq
1865732017-10-112018-01-30crabman2WrongI will finish Analysis 1 at IUM this year
1865742017-10-112018-01-30crabman2WrongI will finish Algebra 1 at IUM this year
1865752017-10-112018-01-30crabman2WrongI will finish Geometry 1 at IUM this year
1865762017-10-112017-11-11crabman2WrongI will have dropped piano by this date
1865772017-10-112018-01-01crabman2RightI will have dropped piano by this date
1865782017-10-112020-12-31themusicgod11Steve Bannon one of 5 remaining candidates in republican primaries, 2020
1865942017-10-112019-12-31themusicgod11Trudeau's new Canadian copyright act removes ability to transfer copyright
1865952017-10-112017-12-31themusicgod110 Equifax executives convicted/jailed
1865962017-10-112018-02-11themusicgod13WrongMain bitcoin branch/fork valued at $27,395 bitstampUSD
1865972017-10-112020-12-31themusicgod16Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world
1865982017-10-122017-12-31themusicgod11WrongDonald Trump renegotiates US foreign debt
1866102017-10-122020-01-02Vipul Naik2RightOn or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 6 billion views.
1866342017-10-122017-12-31peter_hurford3WrongThe new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired
1866392017-10-122027-10-09themusicgod11permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists
1866402017-10-122020-12-31themusicgod121Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence
1866412017-10-122020-12-31themusicgod1625th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369
1866422017-10-122018-12-31gringer1[Marginal cost-per-base on any ONT MinION (or similar ultra-portable successor) run will be] equal to or lower than any Illumina HiSeq run, using the same physical MinION flow cell [sequencing well] structure as available 2017-Oct-01
1866432017-10-122018-12-31gringer1[Marginal cost-per-base on any ONT MinION (or similar ultra-portable successor) run will be] equal to or lower than any Illumina NovaSeq run, using the same physical MinION flow cell [sequencing well] structure as available 2017-Oct-01
1866442017-10-122018-12-31gringer1[Marginal cost-per-base on any ONT MinION (or similar ultra-portable successor) run will be] less than 1/10th the cost of all Illumina NovaSeq runs, using a different physical MinION flow cell structure from that available 2017-Oct-01
1866452017-10-132020-03-01themusicgod14WrongBitcoin at 40,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs
1866662017-10-162018-02-10RandomThinker2WrongPackers sign Milwaukee native Colin Kaepernick as QB, who leads them to the Superbowl
1867362017-10-182017-12-20Athrithalix1RightThe payload satellites on Rocket Lab's 'Still Testing' Electron rocket will deploy and operate successfully.
1867612017-10-192017-11-16Pablo Stafforini1RightADN testing will confirm that the body found last Tuesday in Chubut, Argentina is Santiago Maldonado's.
1867932017-10-202017-12-31lavalamp5RightBitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year.
1867942017-10-202017-12-31lavalamp4RightBitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year.
1867952017-10-202017-12-31lavalamp4RightBitcoin: trades above 9k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year.
1867962017-10-202017-12-31lavalamp5RightBitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year.
1868012017-10-212017-10-28jbeshir1RightPolitics, EU - Spanish Senate approves proposed plan for elections in Catalonia by the end of 2017-10-27.
1868022017-10-212017-11-04jbeshir1RightBusiness, US - Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of 2017-11-03
1868032017-10-212017-12-01jbeshir1RightBusiness, US - Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of November 2017
1868042017-10-212017-10-22jbeshir1RightPersonal, Productivity - I will do my strength and flexibility exercises on 2017-10-22.
1868082017-10-222018-12-31WilliamKiely2WrongThe new Amazon HQ will be hosted in the Austin-Round Rock, TX metro area
1870122017-10-272020-08-19themusicgod115>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day
1870202017-10-292017-11-20jbeshir1RightPolitics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-19.
1870212017-10-292017-12-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge President Trump with a crime.
1870222017-10-292017-12-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Paul Manafort with a crime.
1870232017-10-292017-12-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Michael Flynn with a crime.
1870242017-10-292017-12-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, US - Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Jared Kushner with a crime.
1870532017-10-302017-12-31juncholi3WrongSTOCK- the US equity market will experience a mini-crash by the end of 2017
1870562017-10-302018-10-08Bruno Parga3Right[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Jair Bolsonaro in the first round or have him advance to the runoff
1870572017-10-302018-10-08Bruno Parga3Wrong[The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff
1870582017-10-302018-10-08Bruno Parga3Wrong[The Brazilian presidential election will] have neither Lula da Silva nor Jair Bolsonaro win outright, and neither will advance to the runoff
1870592017-10-302018-10-08Bruno Parga4Right[The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff
1870602017-10-302018-10-08Bruno Parga4Wrong[The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%)
1870612017-10-302018-10-08Bruno Parga3Wrong[The Brazilian presidential election will] have no state won by a candidate that finishes third or lower overall
1870962017-10-312018-03-16lavalamp3Right[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 1x/core/legacy fork is the sole surviving chain, and core does not double the block size.
1870972017-10-312018-03-16lavalamp3Wrong[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] Both the 1x and 2x chains survive.
1872002017-11-022019-12-31Athrithalix1ARCA Space will cancel development of its Haas 2C vehicle before the end of 2019.
1872012017-11-022017-12-31themusicgod11Android + iOS both have apps available that can 3D scan your feet so you can 3D print your own shoes at home. At least one person prints & wears these shoes around and is caught on something like instagram doing so.
1872022017-11-022018-12-31themusicgod17(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)
1872032017-11-022018-12-31themusicgod11Wrongpython-ethereum makes it into ubuntu
1872202017-11-042021-01-02Vipul Naik1Data published by Cisco in 2019 or 2020 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2019 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 186 EB.
1872212017-11-052022-01-02Vipul Naik1Data published by Cisco in 2020 or 2021 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2020 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 228 EB.
1872452017-11-062019-05-03xzvf6RightThere will be a Wikipedia page detailing the crypto currency boom resembling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
1872462017-11-062027-11-06Uisaria2I will become a famous singer
1873402017-11-112017-12-13jbeshir7WrongPolitics, US - Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat.
1873412017-11-112018-01-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, US - Mike Flynn is indicted before the end of 2017.
1873422017-11-112017-12-30jbeshir3WrongBusiness, UK - Donald Brydon ceases to be chairman of LSE.
1873452017-11-122018-07-01Gibs13WrongHillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia
1873462017-11-122017-11-13Gibs1I will win the lottery
1873472017-11-122018-11-01mattdraghi2RightThe cubs will not win the 2018 world series
1875712017-11-142027-12-31Athrithalix1Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027
1875722017-11-142021-12-31Athrithalix1Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021.
1876442017-11-162017-12-17Bruno Parga3Right[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Coup succeeds; Mugabe either remains de jure president but under house arrest, or agrees to gracefully leave. Generals install a new de facto ruler ─ probably but not necessarily Mnangagwa
1876452017-11-162017-12-17Bruno Parga3Wrong[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Mr and Mrs Mugabe and/or other factions dispute power with the generals; violence erupts, no single clear de facto leadership in the country
1876462017-11-162017-12-17Bruno Parga3Wrong[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Something other than a Mugabe restoration, an army-supported takeover, or unrest/civil war
1876472017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga1Right[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Emmerson Mnangagwa
1876482017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Grace Mugabe
1876492017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Morgan Tsvangirai
1876502017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Constantino Chiwenga
1876512017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Some other veteran of the War of Independence
1876522017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Saviour Kasukuwere
1876532017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Ignatius Chombo
1876542017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Patrick Zhuwayo (Robert Mugabe's nephew)
1876552017-11-162019-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Someone who is not a war veteran and not a member of ZANU-PF (excluding Tsvangirai)
1876802017-11-172022-11-17Jach4In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today
1876812017-11-172018-01-01Jach1WrongGodot 3.0 will have a stable release by the end of the year
1877302017-11-222018-11-20gurgus2RightEither Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will finish ATP year-end number 1 in 2018
1877312017-11-222018-06-30ekr1RightHardkernel releases a new Odroid SBC before June 30th 2018. (they've been postponing the release of a roadmap since June 2017: https://forum.odroid.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=18002&start=250#p200485).
1877322017-11-222018-12-31ekr1WrongAMD crosses 25% cpu market share by end of 2018. (according to Passmark Cpu Benchmarks)
1877332017-11-222023-06-30ekr2World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate).
1877392017-11-242019-01-02Vipul Naik1RightBy the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Percentage of pages loaded over HTTPS in Chrome by platform” on Windows will exceed 75%.
1877622017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5RightFacebook will match at least $1,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877632017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5RightFacebook will match at least $2,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877642017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5RightFacebook will match at least $4,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877652017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely4RightFacebook will match at least $8,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877662017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5RightFacebook will match at least $16,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877672017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5RightFacebook will match at least $32,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877682017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5WrongFacebook will match at least $64,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877692017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5WrongFacebook will match at least $125,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877702017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5WrongFacebook will match at least $250,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877712017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5WrongFacebook will match at least $500,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877722017-11-242018-11-29WilliamKiely5WrongFacebook will match at least $1,000,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday
1877882017-11-252018-11-16lucasmafaldo2Wrong[Brazil's next president will be] Alckmin
1877892017-11-252018-11-16lucasmafaldo2Wrong[Brazil's next president will be] Ciro Gomes
1877902017-11-252018-11-16lucasmafaldo3Wrong[Brazil's next president will be] Lula
1877912017-11-252027-11-25Laudano1[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] If ex-president and capo mafioso gangster Lula and the permanent political class he bribed goes unpunished in 2018, there's a big chance Brazil will plunge into chaos and balkanize herself in the next ten years.
1877922017-11-252027-11-25Laudano2[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] A junta will take over after a military coup.
1877932017-11-252027-11-25Laudano2[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia.
1877942017-11-252018-10-29Laudano4Right[ Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro or someone who espouses his law and order/anti-establishment platform
1877952017-11-252018-10-29Laudano1Wrong[ Brazil's next president will be] A yet unknown outsider (Huck, Joaquim Barbosa, Meirelles, Doctor Rey, or other clown)
1877962017-11-252018-10-29Laudano1Right[ Brazil's next president will be] A permanent political class shill (Alckmin, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Alvaro Dias, Joao Doria, other crooks)
1877972017-11-252018-10-29Laudano1Wrong[ Brazil's next president will be] A conservative like Ronaldo Caiado or Joao Amoedo
1877982017-11-252017-12-26crabman1RightKahneman (or whoever controls his email) will give an actual response to the question I sent him via an email
1878072017-11-272025-01-01JoshuaZ3SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025.
1878082017-11-272023-01-01JoshuaZ2BFR to launch before 2022.
1878092017-11-272017-12-15JoshuaZ10WrongRoy Moore to win senate special election
1878532017-11-302017-12-01Adam Zerner1RightCarMax extended warranty doesn’t cover battery for electric cars
1878542017-11-302022-11-30Adam Zerner1Our Ford Focus battery lasts 100,000 miles
1878552017-11-302020-12-04Adam Zerner4Next term there will be a democratic president in America
1878562017-11-302017-12-01Adam Zerner1RightThere are mechanics in Las Vegas for electric cars
1878572017-11-302017-12-01Adam Zerner1RightCarMax doesn’t negotiate is a better price
1879032017-12-032017-12-10owenshen241[Crypto predictions:] Raiden Network will go up from $3.63
1879042017-12-032017-12-10owenshen241[Crypto predictions:] Stellar will go up from $0.9
1879072017-12-032017-12-31Leohmarruda11WrongBtc below 7k USD before 2018
1879102017-12-042018-01-01RobertLumley1WrongLes Miles will be named head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers
1879112017-12-042017-12-04Adam Zerner1RightThe answer is "semantics"
1879362017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Rightget mail from pa
1879372017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Rightparty l
1879382017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongparty A
1879392017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongparty c
1879402017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongparty j
1879412017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Rightprint la
1879422017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongprint j/a
1879432017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongprint j/a 2
1879442017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongprint lu
1879452017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongprint n
1879462017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wrongprint a
1879472017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Rightprint m
1879482017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wronga thinks astro legit
1879492017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1RightLa at least 2 prints
1879502017-12-052017-12-26ZeitPolizei1Withdrawn... says she is as open with me, as she is with most other people.
1879512017-12-052018-01-01ZeitPolizei1Wronget po >= 15 ka before next year
1879522017-12-052018-02-05ZeitPolizei1WrongSc will be blegh
1879532017-12-052017-12-05ZeitPolizei1Wronget shows mind change
1879542017-12-052019-01-01ZeitPolizei2WithdrawnBy end of 2018 I will conclude (by object level reasoning), that AI safety is most important cause area
1879552017-12-052017-12-19ZeitPolizei1Wrongc has a crafts group
1879602017-12-052018-01-16ZeitPolizei1Rightwe will get a gym slot (at least 3 times before march)
1880032017-12-062020-01-01HonoreDB13WrongPublic demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019.
1882122017-12-142018-03-24Bruno Parga3Wrong[German government formation, 2017:] Coalition talks still ongoing
1882132017-12-142018-03-24Bruno Parga4Wrong[German government formation, 2017:] A new election is called
1882142017-12-142018-03-24Bruno Parga4Right[German government formation, 2017:] Grand coalition - Union/SPD
1882152017-12-142018-03-24Bruno Parga3Wrong[German government formation, 2017:] "German flag" coalition - Union/SPD/FDP (includes minority gov't)
1882162017-12-142018-03-24Bruno Parga2Wrong[German government formation, 2017:] "Jamaica" coalition - Union/FDP/Greens
1882172017-12-142018-03-24Bruno Parga2Wrong[German government formation, 2017:] Minority government; Left and AfD in opposition
1882182017-12-142018-03-24Bruno Parga3Wrong[German government formation, 2017:] Any government with any form of support from Left or AfD
1882192017-12-142017-12-14c0rw112Rightc0rw1n "there are >= 10k universities in the US"
1882642017-12-182018-03-31taryneast1RightMy baby will be crawling by his first birthday
1882762017-12-192018-01-04jbeshir1WrongPersonal - I reach the 12GB data allowance on my phone before I return home from travel, such that I buy more or curtail my usage.
1883412017-12-212018-01-01ccokeefe5WrongPresident Trump will be impeached by 12/31/17.
1883422017-12-212019-01-01ccokeefe7WrongPresident Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18
1883432017-12-212020-10-01ccokeefe11RightElizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020
1883442017-12-212020-11-15ccokeefe4Trump will win the Presidency in 2020
1883452017-12-212018-01-01ccokeefe3RightHillary Clinton will not face federal charges by the end of 2017.
1883462017-12-212018-01-01ccokeefe1RightNancy Pelosi will be Democratic Leader on 12/31/17.
1883472017-12-212018-04-01ccokeefe2RightAl Franken will not be a US Senator on 3/31/18.
1883482017-12-212019-02-01ccokeefe3RightThe Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms.
1883492017-12-212019-01-01ccokeefe18RightTrump will be President on 12/31/18
1883502017-12-212020-09-01ccokeefe13Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination
1883512017-12-212019-01-04ccokeefe4WrongThe GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms.
1883572017-12-212018-02-01ccokeefe1RightAt least one of the four coordinated EA charities (GD, AMF, FHI, THL) receives a Project for Awesome grant.
1883732017-12-212019-01-01ccokeefe2RightPineapple Fund donation to (another, not including SENS) widely-recognized EA charity by 1/1/19
1883972017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2018
1883982017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2019
1883992017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2019
1884002017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2020
1884012017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga2[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2020
1884022017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga2[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2021
1884032017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga2[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2021
1884042017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga2[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2022
1884052017-12-232023-01-01Bruno Parga2[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2022
1884062017-12-242018-12-28ambisinister1WrongAri Paul's $50k strike Bitcoin calls will expire in the money
1884072017-12-242018-12-31ambisinister2Right[SSBM] UCF will not be used at The Big House 8, Evo 2018, GENESIS 5, or any tournament with over 1750 entrants in 2018
1884162017-12-262019-11-08gallerdude1WrongChristopher Nolan directs Bond 25
1884422017-12-302020-01-01Ardenlk4RightVR technology will be available to middle-class consumers for home entertainment use by 2020
1884432017-12-302018-01-30Enzar1RightI think that I will still be using this site in a month. That is, I will have made at least two more serious predictions in the next month.
1884602018-01-012018-02-01jbeshir1WrongTech - Digital Combat Simulator World 2.5 is released before the end of January 2018
1884612018-01-012018-12-15Bruno Parga1RightEllen Johnson-Sirleaf to win the Ibrahim Prize
1884822018-01-012019-01-01ccokeefe2RightTrump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538.
1885032018-01-012018-02-01ccokeefe3Wrong[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30%
1885042018-01-012018-02-01ccokeefe4Wrong[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35%
1885052018-01-012018-02-01ccokeefe6Wrong[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5%
1885062018-01-012018-02-01ccokeefe6Right[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40%
1885072018-01-012018-02-01ccokeefe5Wrong[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1%
1885082018-01-012019-01-01ccokeefe6WrongNorth Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018
1885092018-01-012018-11-07ccokeefe2RightDebbie Stabenow to win MI Senate seat in 2018
1885122018-01-012018-03-01Nve9WrongIn February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH
1885132018-01-012018-04-01Nve4WrongBitcoin would have hit an ATH in the last ~38 days
1885282018-01-022018-11-18ccokeefe1Wrong[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Republican
1885292018-01-022018-11-18ccokeefe1Right[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Bill Schuette as the Republican nominee
1885302018-01-022018-11-18ccokeefe2Right[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee
1885312018-01-022018-11-07ccokeefe1RightVoters Not Politicians anti-gerrymandering MI constitutional amendment will be approved via ballot initiative on election day 2018
1885322018-01-022018-12-31ccokeefe6Right[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II
1885332018-01-022018-12-31ccokeefe4Wrong[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Charles
1885342018-01-022018-04-01ioannes15WrongCurrent Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018
1885352018-01-022018-06-30imaxwell2RightMy relationship with L. will still be ongoing as of the end of June 2018
1885362018-01-022018-12-31imaxwell1I will not change employers in the year 2018
1885732018-01-032018-01-04ccokeefe1RightAll HLS classes canceled 1/4
1886872018-01-082018-01-08Lissy2RightSaints will win the Wild Card playoff game against the Panthers.
1886882018-01-082018-01-09bobpage1RightI will not do any real computer work for more than an hour tomorrow
1887212018-01-092019-01-01splorridge1WrongI will consider myself vegan at any point in 2018
1887222018-01-092018-07-28splorridge2WrongE and I will break up before planned holiday together in July
1887232018-01-092019-01-01splorridge2WrongStill in a relationship with E by end of 2018
1887242018-01-092019-01-01splorridge1WrongI will drop out of my PhD in 2018
1887252018-01-092019-01-01splorridge8RightTheresa May UK PM throughout 2018
1887632018-01-112018-07-01Bruno Parga4RightI have exercised 100 days this year.
1887642018-01-112018-10-01Bruno Parga3RightI have exercised 150 days this year.
1887652018-01-112019-01-01Bruno Parga3RightI have exercised 200 days this year.
1887662018-01-112050-01-01volis6At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050
1887692018-01-122019-12-31dchristie9WrongSatoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019.
1887702018-01-122019-01-01Temeraire5RightCongress will not extend copyright durations in 2018.
1888062018-01-152018-12-01peter_hurford2RightThe US Democratic Party wins a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 Midterm elections
1888072018-01-152019-01-01peter_hurford1RightThe US government undergoes a "government shutdown" for at least 24 hours in 2018
1888082018-01-152019-01-01peter_hurford11RightThe investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation).
1888092018-01-152018-12-01peter_hurford3WrongThe US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections
1888102018-01-152019-01-01peter_hurford2WrongJared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018
1888112018-01-152019-01-01peter_hurford3WrongThe US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018
1888122018-01-152019-01-01peter_hurford10WrongHillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018
1890872018-01-252030-01-01Bacon10018I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030
1890882018-01-252018-01-25Bacon10011RightThe Shanghai Draons will lose to the Seoul Dynasty in todays OWL game.
1890912018-01-252018-08-19Athrithalix1RightOneWeb's initial 10 satellites will launch later than their currently announced date of 19th August 2018.
1890922018-01-252018-12-31Athrithalix3WrongA commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018.
1891412018-01-312019-01-01workbean1WithdrawnAmazon will choose either Northern Virginia or Dallas as their HQ2 (retran)
1891422018-01-312018-12-31retran1RightAmazon will choose either Northern Virginia or Dallas as their HQ2
1891432018-01-312018-06-30leo_grint5RightLuna (dating on blockchain) is not a scam.
1891442018-01-312019-07-02leo_grint1Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 40 000 registered users by the end of 2018
1891452018-01-312019-07-02leo_grint2WrongLuna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 200 000 users (created accounts) by the end of 2018
1892642018-02-052019-01-01peter_hurford2WrongCardano (ADA) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018
1892652018-02-052019-01-01peter_hurford2WrongNEO is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018
1892662018-02-052019-01-01peter_hurford1WrongStellar (XLM) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018
1892672018-02-052018-04-01hara1WrongSoftBank (SFTBY)'s market cap will cross $100B this FY , before 31st Mar 2018
1892712018-02-052018-02-12HonoreDB1Right[Star Trek: Disco] Gur svanyr qrcvpgf gur jne raqvat va n znaare vzcyvrq gb yrnq vagb gur gvzryvar jr frr va gur bevtvany frevrf, jvgu ab gvzr geniry be nygreangr havirefrf.
1892722018-02-052020-01-01HonoreDB1[Star Trek: Disco] Nfvqr sebz gur zlpryvny argjbex, gur grpu orvat zber nqinaprq guna va gur bevtvany frevrf vf arire rkcynvarq.
1892732018-02-052020-01-01HonoreDB1[Star Trek: Disco] Ybepn'f fbhy fheivirf jvguva gur argjbex.
1892742018-02-052020-01-01HonoreDB1[Star Trek: Disco] Ng yrnfg bar perjzrzore bs zveebe qvfpbirel vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir va bhe havirefr.
1892752018-02-052020-01-01HonoreDB1[Star Trek: Disco] Bhe havirefr'f Ybepn vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir.
1892842018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo5RightDemocrats take control of the House in midterms.
1892852018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongDemocrats take control of the Senate in midterms.
1892862018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo5WrongMueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him).
1892872018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo4RightMueller does not indict Trump.
1892882018-02-062019-01-02Jayson Virissimo10WrongPredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018.
1892892018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo6RightPredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year.
1892902018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo4WrongSome sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed.
1892912018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo4RightNo major health-care reform legislation gets passed.
1892922018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo3RightNo large-scale deportation of Dreamers.
1892932018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo2RightUS government shuts down again sometime in 2018.
1892942018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo7RightTrump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year.
1892952018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo5WrongTrump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year
1892962018-02-062019-01-01Jayson Virissimo6WrongGLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research.
1893012018-02-072018-12-31Athrithalix1WrongTwo more Falcon Heavy launches in 2018.
1893142018-02-102018-04-01jbeshir4WrongPolitics, UK - The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018.
1893152018-02-102018-03-11jbeshir1WrongPolitics, UK - A power-sharing executive is established in Stormont by the end of the 10th of March 2018.
1893162018-02-102018-03-01jbeshir4RightPolitics, US - John Kelly is White House Chief of Staff through the end of February 2018.
1893172018-02-102018-06-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, Venezuela - Nicolas Maduro announced as winner of the 2018 presidential elections.
1893182018-02-102018-03-05jbeshir2WrongPolitics, US - Deal struck before 5th of March 2018 that curbs family reunification and provides "Dreamers" with protection from deportation or a path to such.
1893242018-02-122018-09-20Athrithalix1RightI will attend Albion 3.
1893252018-02-122018-10-01Athrithalix1Star-ALE will not participate in the Tokyo Olympics opening ceremony.
1893612018-02-132019-04-01Nve1WrongIndia's 2019 General Elections will be held before April 2019
1893622018-02-132019-06-01Nve1WrongIndia's General Election for 2019 will take place after May 2019
1893632018-02-132019-12-01Nve1RightThe NDA will win the India's 2019 General Elections
1893752018-02-142018-06-16Athrithalix1RightRocket Lab's next launch to be called "Business Time"
1893762018-02-142018-12-31Athrithalix1RightFewer small satellites (<500kg) launched in 2018 than 2017.
1893792018-02-152019-01-01daedalus_2112WrongBitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD
1893842018-02-152018-05-25Mjreard1WrongHLSGives generates 30 career 1FTW pledges
1893922018-02-172018-02-17peter_hurford1RightRK will attend dinner tonight
1893932018-02-172018-02-17peter_hurford1WrongJF will attend dinner tonight
1894372018-02-202018-04-01ccokeefe1Wrong[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 2
1894382018-02-202018-04-01ccokeefe1Right[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 3
1894392018-02-202018-04-01ccokeefe1Wrong[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 4
1894402018-02-202018-04-01ccokeefe1Wrong[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] ≥5
1894542018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga1Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 25
1894552018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga1Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 1
1894562018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga1Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 8
1894572018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga2Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 15
1894582018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga2Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 22
1894592018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga2Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 29
1894602018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga2Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 6
1894612018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga2Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 13
1894622018-02-202018-06-04Bruno Parga4Wrong[I will have finished the deep learning course by] June 3
1894632018-02-202018-12-31Athrithalix1RightWFIRST is not completely cancelled in 2018.
1894642018-02-202019-01-01JoshuaZ1WrongA second Falcon Heavy launch by the end of 2018
1894792018-02-222018-02-23pkfalu921000000 takes longer than 3 hours to complete
1894802018-02-222018-02-23pkfalu921Right000001 completed 22Feb18
1894812018-02-222018-02-23pkfalu921Wrong000001 takes longer than 1 hour
1894822018-02-222018-02-23pkfalu921Wrong000002 completed 22Feb18
1894832018-02-222018-02-23pkfalu921WrongI finish 000003 22Feb18
1894842018-02-222018-02-23pkfalu921Rightcomplete 000004 22Feb18
1894982018-02-232018-09-21taryneast2RightMy baby will be walking independently by age 18 months
1894992018-02-232018-03-21taryneast2WrongMy baby will be walking independently by age 12 months
1895002018-02-232018-05-21taryneast1RightMy baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 14 months
1895012018-02-232018-07-21taryneast1RightMy baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 16 months
1895312018-02-262018-03-02Athrithalix1RightWe will vote to watch Redline on Friday.
1895322018-02-262019-02-01Anidrania6WrongThe market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019.
1895332018-02-262021-01-01viissataa1In it's Fighter X program to replace a fleet of Boeing F-18 fighters with modern aicraft, Finland will choose to purchase an amount of 50-70 JAS Gripen-E fighters from Saab, augmented by 5-10 F35 jets on a lease deal to reduce operating costs.
1895342018-02-262020-11-03iCrown5Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020.
1895352018-02-272018-03-27enolan3WrongOne or more of Cipriani et al will respond to Scott Alexander's article on their new paper
1895982018-03-032019-01-08Finma13WrongBrexit will successfully have take place by August 2019
1895992018-03-042018-04-01dchristie4RightThe Facebook group, 'Effective Egoism', will have between 100 to 190 members by March 31st 11:59 pm Pacific timezone.
1896072018-03-052018-03-09Athrithalix1WrongMy teeth will require major scraping at the dentist on Friday.
1896082018-03-052018-03-09Athrithalix1WrongI will have to schedule another appointment for further treatment following my dentist appointment this Friday.
1896092018-03-052018-03-09Athrithalix1RightMy vision will have further deteriorated, as judged by my optician.
1896102018-03-052018-03-09Athrithalix1RightI will require new glasses.
1896462018-03-082018-03-09Athrithalix1RightI will have a haircut on Friday.
1896472018-03-082018-03-09Athrithalix1RightI will have a haircut on Friday and be pleased with the result.
1896652018-03-092018-03-09bmalcolmson2WrongI won't make an accurate prediction
1896662018-03-092018-04-30pvoberstein4WrongDonald Trump will have a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-un "by May".
1896702018-03-112018-04-09jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - Spokesperson for UK government department states that their official view is that the Russian government was likely involved in attack on former spy by end of 2018-04-08.
1896712018-03-112018-05-01jbeshir1WrongTech - Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the bottom-end of the price range is greater than $10,000.
1896722018-03-112018-05-01jbeshir1WrongTech - Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the top-end of the price range is greater than $10,000.
1896732018-03-122018-04-10jbeshir1WrongPolitics, UK - It is alleged by a government official that a significant possibility exists that the man restrained by police who later died in Lewisham on 2018-03-09 was subject to excessive force before the end of the 9th of April 2018.
1896742018-03-122018-08-01Athrithalix1RightVector to delay their first commercial launch past end of July.
1897502018-03-132018-03-16OperaPhantom1I can trust my amore.
1897512018-03-132018-03-16OperaPhantom1Effective assistance will not be granted in time or at all.
1897882018-03-142018-03-19fkovacs3WrongUK will expel Russia's ambassador by 18 March 2018.
1898192018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ganondorf
1898202018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Jigglypuff
1898212018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Zelda
1898222018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Kirby
1898232018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] King Dedede
1898242018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Dr Mario
1898252018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ike
1898262018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Falco
1898272018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Samus
1898282018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Link
1898292018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Sheik
1898302018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Inkling
1898312018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Captain Falcon
1898322018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Right[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Bowser
1898332018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Donkey Kong
1898342018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Fox
1898352018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Diddy Kong
1898362018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Rob
1898372018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Marth
1898382018-03-162019-03-16Athrithalix1Wrong[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Mewtwo
1898392018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Ryu
1898402018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Bayonetta
1898412018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Cloud
1898422018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Pacman
1898432018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Duck Hunt Duo
1898442018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix2Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Wii Fit Trainer
1898452018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix2Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Dark Pit
1898462018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Robin
1898472018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Lucina
1898482018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Baby Bowser
1898492018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix2Wrong[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Charizard
1898502018-03-162020-06-16Athrithalix1RightAnother character from the Metroid series will be added in Smash for Switch either on release or within 18 months of release.
1898512018-03-162020-06-16Athrithalix4Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release.
1898522018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1WrongAnother Smash Ballot will be announced in 2018.
1898532018-03-162020-01-01Athrithalix1Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019.
1898542018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix2RightThere will be no Smash Tour minigame in Smash for Switch.
1898552018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1RightThere will be a story mode in Smash for Switch.
1898562018-03-162020-06-16Athrithalix2RightSmash for switch will support the use of Gamecube controllers, either on release or within 18 months of release.
1898572018-03-162019-01-01Athrithalix1RightSmash for Switch will support 8-player smash.
1898582018-03-162018-03-17Athrithalix1WithdrawnC will rate Perfect Blue lower than 8
1898592018-03-162018-03-17Athrithalix1WithdrawnC will rate Perfect Blue lower than 7
1898602018-03-162018-03-19zvory1WithdrawnI will not be sick by monday morning
1898612018-03-162019-01-01jbeshir6WrongPolitics, UK - Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal
1899022018-03-212028-03-21Ben Doherty8"Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years"
1899052018-03-222018-03-22crabman1WrongI will not cancel psychotherapy session because of illness
1899062018-03-222019-03-22Athrithalix3WrongAnother Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years.
1899072018-03-222018-03-23crabman1RightIf I end up using my Gruzovichkoff order on 2018-03-23, I will pay for 3+ hours of loader's work
1899082018-03-222018-04-01Athrithalix3WrongElectron rocket to launch before the end of March.
1899342018-03-232018-04-20zvory1WrongI will get anxiety/stress severe enough while studying that I scratch my hands until they bleed
1899472018-03-232019-10-01enolan1WrongGames Workers Unite will be generally considered a failure on October 1st 2019
1899482018-03-232018-06-23enolan3RightI will still be using NixOS in three months
1899492018-03-242018-07-24pkfalu928WrongWithin 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran.
1899732018-03-262018-12-31dakyne5WrongUS National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018.
1899742018-03-262018-04-03dakyne1RightVillanova will win the 2018 NCAA national championship
1899862018-03-262018-04-02zvory1RightDesi will not send any messages at all to me
1900232018-03-292018-05-01Athrithalix3RightTESS will launch before the end of April (there will be no further major delays to its launch).
1900272018-03-292020-03-29Athrithalix2I will still be using Prediction Book in 2 year's time.
1900282018-03-292021-03-29Athrithalix1I will still be using Prediction Book in 3 year's time.
1900292018-03-292022-03-29Athrithalix1I will still be using Prediction Book in 4 year's time.
1900302018-03-292023-03-29Athrithalix1I will still be using Prediction Book in 5 year's time.
1900312018-03-292018-03-30bastak1hui
1901322018-04-082018-05-06shardo1WithdrawnI'll win a game against Manas in FIFA 18 by the end of this semester
1901382018-04-082018-05-15phistr1WrongFrench rail strike will end before 15th May in favour of the government.
1901392018-04-082022-06-30phistr3Macron will not be re-elected as French President.
1901472018-04-082018-05-08enolan1WrongI'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in one month
1901482018-04-082018-07-08enolan2WrongI'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in 3 months
1901552018-04-102023-10-10notsonewuser2Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday.
1901562018-04-102023-10-10notsonewuser2I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday.
1903012018-04-162018-12-31Athrithalix3WrongCyber attack on UK with Russia clearly identified as culprit in 2018, described as retaliation for Syria bombing.
1903442018-04-172018-08-16davatk1Wrong[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Boston.
1903452018-04-172018-08-16davatk1Wrong[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Denver/Boulder.
1903462018-04-172019-01-01davatk7RightBitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019.
1903472018-04-172020-09-16davatk8[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders
1903482018-04-172020-09-16davatk6[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton
1903492018-04-172020-09-16davatk9[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris
1903502018-04-172020-09-16davatk7[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker
1903512018-04-172020-09-16davatk9[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden
1903522018-04-172018-05-10davatk1WrongThe Wizards will beat the Raptors.
1903532018-04-172018-12-16davatk3WrongRepublicans will win the house in 2018.
1904572018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Stoke wins
1904582018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Atletico Madrid wins
1904592018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Las Palmas and Alaves draw
1904602018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Fluminense wins
1904612018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Chapecoense and Vasco draw
1904622018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Aves does not lose
1904632018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Nice wins
1904642018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Schalke wins
1904652018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Augsburg wins
1904662018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Manchester City wins
1904672018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Paris SG does not win
1904682018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Saint Etienne wins
1904692018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Chaves wins
1904702018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Palmeiras does not lose
1904712018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1RightCSKA wins
1904722018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1WrongUdinese wins
1904732018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1RightInternazionale wins
1904742018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1WrongAtalanta Torino draw
1904802018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Juventus wins
1904812018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] São Paulo FC beats Ceará
1904822018-04-222018-04-22musashimaru1Right[Sunday football matches results] Atlético MG beats Vitória
1904832018-04-222018-04-23musashimaru1Wrong[Sunday football matches results] Grêmio beats Atlético PR
1904842018-04-222018-04-25musashimaru1Withdrawn[Sunday football matches results] Botafogo does not lose to Sport Recife
1905172018-04-232018-04-23Athrithalix1WithdrawnI will best W at table football this lunchtime.
1905182018-04-232018-04-23musashimaru1Right[Monday football matches results] Genoa beats Hellas Verona
1905192018-04-232018-04-23musashimaru1Wrong[Monday football matches results] Athletic Bilbao beats Levante
1905202018-04-232018-04-23musashimaru1Right[Monday football matches results] Everton beats Newcastle
1905212018-04-232018-04-23musashimaru1RightFC Porto beats Vitória Setúbal
1905222018-04-232018-04-23musashimaru1RightFenerbahçe beats Antalyaspor
1905232018-04-232018-04-23musashimaru1Wrong[Monday football matches results] Spartak beats Akhmat
1905242018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru1Wrong[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Palmeiras beats Chapecoense
1905252018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Botafogo beats Grêmio
1905262018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru2Right[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Fluminense does not lose to São Paulo FC
1905272018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] América Mineiro does not lose to Vitória
1905282018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru2Right[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Atlético PR does not lose to Bahia
1905292018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru2Right[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Sport Recife does not lose to Paraná
1905302018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Atlético MG beats Corinthians
1905312018-04-232018-05-02musashimaru1Wrong[Brasileirão - Round 3 results] Ceará does not lose to Flamengo
1905322018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru2Right[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Roma beats Chievo
1905332018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Right[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Juventus does not lose to Internazionale
1905342018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Wrong[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Udinese beats Benevento
1905352018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Right[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] AC Milan beats Bologna
1905362018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Right[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Sampdoria beats Cagliari
1905372018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Right[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Crotone beats Sassuolo
1905382018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru2Wrong[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Hellas Verona does not lose to SPAL 2013
1905392018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Wrong[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Genoa does not lose to Atalanta
1905402018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Wrong[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Torino does not lose to Lazio
1905412018-04-232018-04-29musashimaru1Withdrawn[Italian Serie A - Round 35 ] Fiorentina and Napoli draw
1905422018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 36] Liverpool beats Stoke City
1905432018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 36] Huddersfield Town and Everton draw
1905442018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 36] Newcastle beats West Bromwich
1905452018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 36] Southampton beats Bournemouth
1905462018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 36] Crystal Palace does not lose to Leicester City
1905472018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 36] Burnley beats Brighton & Hove Albion
1905482018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru2Right[Premier League - Round 36] Chelsea beats Swansea
1905492018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 36] Manchester United does not lose to Arsenal
1905502018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 36] Manchester City beats West Ham
1905512018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru2Right[Premier League - Round 36] Tottenham beats Watford
1905522018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Lyon beats Nantes
1905532018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Montpellier does not lose to Saint-Étienne
1905542018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru10Right[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Nice does not lose to Strasbourg
1905552018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Marseille beats Angers
1905562018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Monaco beats Amiens
1905572018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Troyes beats Caen
1905582018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Bordeaux beats Dijon
1905592018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Paris SG beats Guingamp
1905602018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Rennes does not lose to Toulouse
1905612018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 35] Lille and Metz draw
1905622018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 32] Schalke 04 beats Borussia Mönchengladbach
1905632018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru2Right[Bundesliga - Round 32] Hoffenheim beats Hannover 96
1905642018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 32] Hertha Berlin beats Augsburg
1905652018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 32] Bayern Munich beats Eintracht Frankfurt
1905662018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru2Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 32] RB Leipzig does not lose to Mainz 05
1905672018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 32] Borussia Dortmund beats Werder Bremen
1905682018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 32] Freiburg does not lose to FC Köln
1905692018-04-232018-04-30musashimaru2Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 32] Wolfsburg does not lose to Hamburger SV
1905802018-04-242021-01-01davatk1The WMATA Silver line will run to Dulles by the end of 2020.
1905832018-04-242018-04-26davatk1WrongThe Wizards will beat the Raptors in game 5.
1905882018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI do not become a card carrying democrat
1905892018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI do not become proficient at cooking for myself
1905902018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI do not start a blog or write regularly
1905912018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI read 12+ books this year
1905922018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI rent a place in Arizona
1905932018-04-242018-04-24JTPeterson1RightThomas Monson dies
1905942018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson13RightTrump is president at years end
1905952018-04-242018-04-24JTPeterson1RightRussel M Nelson succeeds Monson
1905962018-04-242018-05-18JTPeterson1RightI will see Les Mis
1905972018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson6WrongSerious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump
1905982018-04-242018-04-24JTPeterson1WrongI do not live in my sisters spare bedroom for more than a month
1905992018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI switch away from iPhone
1906002018-04-242018-04-24JTPeterson1RightI take at least one road trip of more than 10 hours one way
1906012018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI visit Mexico at least once
1906022018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson6RightTrumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018
1906032018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson5RightTrumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018
1906042018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI move east of the Mississippi in 2018
1906052018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightThere will be a 10+ fatality shooting
1906062018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson2RightTrump does not get impeached in 2018
1906072018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI hike antelope canyon
1906082018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI do not visit a foreign country for 7+ days
1906092018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI do not do any sort of work in a foreign country
1906102018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI do not travel to Asia, Europe, or South America
1906112018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI manage to climb a 5.11 wall at a rock climbing gym
1906122018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson3RightAnother US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault
1906132018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightDemocrats obtain a majority in the house
1906142018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI do not do the Future Authoring program
1906152018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI have a consistent 3-month stint of exercise
1906162018-04-242018-04-24JTPeterson1RightI get into UPenn
1906172018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI move to Pennsylvania
1906182018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI go to at least 2 music concerts
1906192018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1RightI lose weight (current weight @ 170)
1906202018-04-242018-08-28JTPeterson1WrongI am unemployed for at least 1 month before grad school
1906212018-04-242018-04-24JTPeterson1WrongI get into one of the other grad programs I applied to (not UPenn)
1906222018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI read 24+ books this year
1906232018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson7WrongNorth Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory
1906242018-04-242018-04-24JTPeterson1RightPresident Monson passes away before April conference
1906252018-04-242018-08-28JTPeterson1RightI do not get a job doing pure research before grad school starts
1906262018-04-242018-12-31JTPeterson1WrongI go on an overnight hike
1906272018-04-242018-04-28musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 32] Bayer Leverkusen does not lose to Stuttgart
1906282018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 35] Sevilla does not lose to Levante
1906292018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 35] Espanyol beats Las Palmas
1906302018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 35] Real Sociedad does not lose to Athletic Bilbao
1906312018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 35] Real Madrid beats Leganés
1906322018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 35] Villareal does not lose to Celta de Vigo
1906332018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 35] Girona does not lose to Getafe
1906342018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru2Right[La Liga - Round 35] Atlético Madrid beats Alavés
1906352018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 35] Valencia beats Eibar
1906362018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 35] Barcelona beats Deportivo
1906372018-04-242018-04-30musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 35] Real Betis beats Málaga
1906382018-04-242018-04-25musashimaru1Right[UEFA Champions League - Semi-finals first legs] Liverpool does not lose to Roma
1906392018-04-242018-04-25musashimaru1Wrong[UEFA Champions League - Semi-finals first legs] Bayern Munich beats Real Madrid
1906402018-04-242018-04-25peter_hurford2RightDebbie Lesko wins the April 2018 special election for Arizona's 8th District
1906592018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Withdrawn[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] River Plate beats Emelec
1906602018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Santa Fe does not lose to Flamengo
1906612018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Wrong[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Defensor Sporting beats Monagas SC
1906622018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Wrong[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Boca Juniors does not lose to Palmeiras
1906632018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Nacional beats Real Garcilaso
1906642018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Atlético Tucuman does not lose to The Strongest
1906652018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Withdrawn[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Cruzeiro does not lose to Universidad de Chile
1906662018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Withdrawn[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Vasco does not lose to Racing Club
1906672018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Withdrawn[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Peñarol beats Libertad
1906682018-04-252018-04-28musashimaru1Withdrawn[Copa Libertadores 2018 - Group Stage Round 4] Junior Barranquilla beats Alianza Lima
1906692018-04-262018-05-25Mjreard1RightI will earn a P in Criminal Procedure
1906702018-04-262035-01-01livshitsrussia3E-books won't displace paper
1906732018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir6RightPolitics, Columbia - FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019
1906742018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir7RightPolitics, Middle East - Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019)
1906752018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir8WrongPolitics, Middle East - Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018.
1906762018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir6WrongPolitics, Middle East - Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018
1906772018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir7RightPolitics, Libya - Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019
1906782018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir7WrongTechnology - Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018
1906792018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir7RightTechnology - New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018
1906802018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir5WrongTechnology - A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying "something awful" causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018
1906812018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir16WrongTechnology - The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018.
1906822018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir12RightTechnology - Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018
1906832018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir5WrongEA - GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018
1906842018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir5WrongEA - GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation
1906852018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir7RightEA - Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018
1906862018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir5WrongEA - Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018
1906872018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir8WrongEA - Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser
1906882018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir5WrongEA - Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018
1906892018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir9WrongRationalist Community - Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018
1906902018-04-262019-01-01jbeshir7RightRationalist Community - LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018
1907082018-04-262018-04-26musashimaru1Right[Europa League - Semi-finals first leg] Marseille does not lose to Red Bull Salzburg
1907092018-04-262018-04-27musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Junior Barranquilla does not lose to Alianza Lima
1907102018-04-262018-04-28davatk1WrongThe Wizards will win game 6 against the Raptors.
1907112018-04-262018-04-27musashimaru1Withdrawn[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Universidad Chile does not lose to Cruzeiro
1907122018-04-262018-04-27musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Cruzeiro does not lose to Universidad Chile
1907132018-04-262018-04-27musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Peñarol beats Libertad
1907142018-04-262018-04-27musashimaru1Withdrawn[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] River Plate does not lose to Emelec
1907892018-04-272018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Belenenses does not lose to SC Braga
1907902018-04-272018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Vitória de Setúbal beats Feirense
1907912018-04-272018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Rio Ave does not lose to GD Chaves
1907922018-04-272018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] FC Porto does not lose to Marítimo
1907932018-04-272018-04-30musashimaru1Wrong[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Estoril does not lose to Desportivo das Aves
1907942018-04-272018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Vitória de Guimarães beats Moreirense
1907952018-04-272018-04-30musashimaru1Right[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] Boavista beats Paços de Ferreira
1907962018-04-272019-05-30peter_hurford1WrongBy the end of next year, the RP 2018-2019 Plan will be completed exactly as it is currently published with no significant revisions or changed deliverable dates
1908062018-04-292018-04-29musashimaru1Withdrawn[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 32] FC Porto does not lose to Marítimo
1908072018-04-292018-04-29musashimaru1Right[Italian Serie A - Round 35] Fiorentina does not lose to Napoli
1910252018-04-302018-04-30lukefreeman1Withdrawntest
1910262018-04-302018-04-30lukefreeman1Withdrawntest
1910322018-04-302018-05-01musashimaru1Right[Italian Serie B - Round 39] Palermo does not lose to Bari
1910542018-05-012018-05-15davatk1Wrong[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Philadelphia will beat Boston.
1910552018-05-012018-05-15davatk1Right[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Houston will beat Utah.
1910562018-05-012018-05-15davatk1Right[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Golden State will beat New Orleans.
1910782018-05-012018-12-01davatk1RightJoe Manchin will win his 2018 Senate race in West Virginia.
1910822018-05-012018-05-01musashimaru1Right[Champions League – Semi-finals second leg] Bayern Munich does not lose to Real Madrid
1910832018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Grêmio beats Cerro Porteño
1910842018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Club Nacional (URU) beats Santos FC
1910852018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Wrong[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Real Garcilaso beats Estudiantes LP
1910862018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Atlético Tucumán does not lose to Peñarol
1910872018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Boca Juniors does not lose to Junior Barranquilla
1910882018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Wrong[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Corinthians beats Independiente
1910892018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Colo-Colo does not lose to Delfín SC
1910902018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Wrong[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Vasco da Gama beats Cruzeiro
1910912018-05-012018-05-03musashimaru1Wrong[Copa do Brasil - Eighth-finals first leg] Ponte Preta does not lose to Flamengo
1911162018-05-032018-07-16Athrithalix2RightJames Webb Space Telescope to breach its $8bn cost cap.
1911282018-05-032018-05-03musashimaru11Right[Europa League - Semi-finals second leg] Atlético de Madrid does not lose to Arsenal
1911292018-05-032018-08-03dnti8081WithdrawnThe Ebb sleep product will not be available to easily buy within the next 3 months.
1911322018-05-032018-05-04musashimaru5Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Racing Club does not lose to Universidad de Chile
1911332018-05-032018-05-04musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Libertad does not lose to The Strongest
1911342018-05-032018-05-04musashimaru1Wrong[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Santa Fe beats River Plate
1911352018-05-032018-05-04musashimaru1Right[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 5] Palmeiras does not lose to Alianza Lima
1911552018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard1RightI will get a P in Antitrust
1911562018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard1WrongI will get an H in Legal Profession
1911572018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard1RightI will get an H* in Legal Profession
1911582018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard1WrongI will LP Antitrust
1911592018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard1WrongI will H Criminal Procedure
1911602018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard2WithdrawnI will H Corporations
1911612018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard1WrongI will H Corporations
1911622018-05-042018-05-25Mjreard1WrongI will H Antitrust
1911632018-05-042018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 36] Paris SG beats Amiens
1911642018-05-042018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 36] AS Saint-Étienne beats FCG Bordeaux
1911652018-05-042018-05-06musashimaru2Right[Ligue 1 - Round 36] Olympique Lyon beats Troyes AC
1911662018-05-042018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 36] Dijon FCO does not lose to EA Guingamp
1911672018-05-042018-05-04musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 37] Manchester United beats Brighton & Hove Albion
1911702018-05-042018-05-05musashimaru2Withdrawn[Primeira Liga - Round 33] SC Braga beats Boavista by 1.5+ goals
1911712018-05-042018-05-04musashimaru1Wrong[Primeira Liga - Round 33] SC Braga beats Boavista by 1.5+ goals
1911722018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Argentine Primera ] San Lorenzo does not lose to Belgrano
1911732018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1WithdrawnSarfield lost
1911742018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 37] Stoke City beats Crystal Palace
1911752018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 37] Watford does not lose to Newcastle
1911762018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 37] Leicester City beats West Ham
1911772018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 37] Tottenham beats West Bromwich
1911782018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 37] Bournemouth does not lose to Swansea
1911792018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 37] Everton beats Southampton
1911802018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Round 37] Manchester City beats Huddersfield Town
1911812018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 37] Chelsea does not lose to Liverpool
1911822018-05-052018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 37] Arsenal beats Burnley
1911832018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 36] Girona and Eibar draw
1911842018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 36] Athletic Bilbao does not lose to Real Betis
1911852018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 36] Celta Vigo beats Deportivo
1911862018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 36] Villareal beats Valencia
1911872018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru1Right[La Liga - Round 36] Alavés does not lose to Málaga
1911882018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru2Right[La Liga - Round 36] Getafe does not lose to Las Palmas
1911892018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru2Wrong[La Liga - Round 36] Barcelona beats Real Madrid
1911902018-05-052018-05-08musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 36] Leganés beats Levante
1911912018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 33] Bayen Munich beats FC Köln
1911922018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 33] Borussia Dortmund beats Mainz 05
1911932018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 33] RB Leipzig beats Wolfsburg
1911942018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 33] Borussia Mönchengladbach beats Freiburg
1911952018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 33] Schalke 04 beats Augsburg
1911962018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 33] Hannover 96 and Hertha Berlin draw
1911972018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 33] Werder Bremen does not lose to Bayer Leverkusen
1911982018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 33] Stuttgart beats Hoffenheim
1911992018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 33] Eintracth Frankfurt beats Hamburger SV
1912002018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Russian Premier League] Spartak Moscow beats Rostov
1912032018-05-052018-05-05musashimaru1Right[Italian Serie A - Round 36] Juventus beats Bologna
1912072018-05-062019-01-01Cato9RightDonald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018.
1912082018-05-062019-01-01Cato2WrongThe US yield curve will invert in 2018, i.e., the 10y yield will fall below the 1y yield.
1912092018-05-062019-01-01Cato8WrongTaiwan will declare independence in 2018.
1912102018-05-062019-01-01Cato1WrongI will read 100 books in 2018.
1912112018-05-062018-05-13Cato1RightNunes will beat Pennington at UFC 224.
1912122018-05-062019-01-01Cato1RightOMX Tallinn will stay above 1000 for 2018.
1912132018-05-062019-01-01Cato2WrongBrent crude will reach $100 in 2018.
1912142018-05-062019-01-01Cato2WrongCocoa will reach $3000/ton in 2018.
1912152018-05-062019-01-01Cato2WrongSaudi Aramco will have an IPO at a non-Saudi bourse in 2018.
1912162018-05-062019-01-01Cato1RightIf Saudi Aramco has a 2018 foreign IPO, the company's implied valuation will be less than $2 trillion.
1912172018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Portuguese Primeira Liga - Round 33] Sporting CP does not lose to SL Benfica
1912182018-05-062018-05-08musashimaru1Withdrawn[Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Independiente beats Gimnasia LP
1912192018-05-062018-05-08musashimaru1Wrong[Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Estudiantes LP does not lose to Racing Club
1912202018-05-062018-05-08musashimaru1Right[Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Boca Juniors beats Unión Santa Fe
1912212018-05-062018-05-13Cato3WrongDonald Trump will renew the Iran deal on May 12.
1912222018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Serie A - Round 36] Chievo does not lose to Crotone
1912232018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Serie A - Round 36] Napoli beats Torino FC
1912242018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Serie A - Round 36] Lazio does not lose to Atalanta
1912252018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Serie A - Round 36] SPAL does not lose to Benevento
1912262018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Serie A - Round 36] Genoa does not lose to Fiorentina
1912272018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 36] Atlético Madrid beats Espanyol
1912282018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Süper Lig - Round 32] Fenerbahçe does not lose to Bursaspor
1912292018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Primeira Liga - Round 33] Moreirense does not lose to Desportivo Aves
1912302018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Primeira Liga - Round 33] Estoril beats Vitória Setúbal
1912312018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Metz beats Angers
1912322018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Toulouse beats Lille
1912332018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Monaco beats Caen
1912342018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Ligue 1 - Round 36 ] Nantes and Montpellier draw
1912352018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Segunda Liga - Round 37] Sporting B does not lose to Guimarães B
1912362018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 36] Rennes does not lose to Strasbourg
1912392018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Segunda Liga - Round 37] Santa Clara beats Real SC
1912402018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Segunda Liga - Round 37] Oliveirense does not lose to Leixões
1912412018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Primeira Liga - Round 33] FC Porto does not lose to Feirense
1912512018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Serie A - Round 36] AS Roma does not lose to Cagliari
1912522018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 4] Palmeiras does not lose to Atlético PR
1912532018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 4] Flamengo beats Internacional
1912542018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 4] Cruzeiro does not lose to Botafogo
1912552018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Wrong[Brasileirão - Round 4] Vitória does not lose to Fluminense
1912562018-05-062018-05-06musashimaru1Right[Ligue 1 - Round 36] Marseille does not lose to Nice
1912572018-05-062018-10-16seriouslykernelwtf1BH will fail to add himself to his "publicly visible wall of shame for a five year period" over breaking a rental agreement.
1912652018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 4] Sport Recife beats Bahia
1912662018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Liga MX - Clausura QF second leg ] Santos Laguna does not lose to Tigres
1912672018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] Santa Fe does not lose to Millonarios
1912682018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] America Cali does not lose to Deportivo La Equidad
1912692018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] Junior Barranquilla does not lose to Jaguares Córdoba
1912702018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Liga Aguila - Apertura Round 19] Atlético Nacional does not lose to Leones FC
1912712018-05-062018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Primera Chile - Round 12] Colo Colo does not lose to Everton Viña del Mar
1912752018-05-072018-05-07musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga 2 - Round 38] Granada does not lose to Rayo Vallecano
1912762018-05-072018-05-07musashimaru1Wrong[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Semi-final first leg] Dundee United beats Livingston
1912772018-05-072018-05-07musashimaru1Right[Primeira Liga - Round 33] Paços de Ferreira does not lose to Rio Ave
1912782018-05-072018-05-09musashimaru1Right[Superliga Argentina - Round 26] Banfield beats Chacarita
1912792018-05-072018-05-09musashimaru1Right[Superliga Argentina - Round 26] River Plate does not lose to Colón
1912802018-05-072018-05-08musashimaru1Right[Serie A Ecuador - Round 12 ] El Nacional beats Técnico Universitario
1912812018-05-072018-05-08musashimaru1Right[Brasileirão - Round 4] Chapecoense does not lose to Paraná
1912862018-05-082018-05-08musashimaru2Right[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Aberdeen does not lose to Rangers
1912872018-05-082018-05-08musashimaru1Right[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Motherwell does not lose to Partick Thistle
1912882018-05-082018-05-08musashimaru1Wrong[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Hamilton beats St Johnstone
1912892018-05-082018-05-08musashimaru1Wrong[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Ross County does not lose to Dundee FC
1912902018-05-082018-05-08musashimaru1Right[Coupe de France - Final] Paris SG does not lose to Les Herbiers
1912952018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Wrong[La Liga - Round 34] Real Madrid does not lose to Sevilla
1912962018-05-092018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Palmeiras does not lose to América Mineiro
1912972018-05-092018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Bahia does not lose to Vasco da Gama
1912982018-05-092018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Grêmio does not lose to Goiás
1912992018-05-092018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Corinthians beats Vitória
1913002018-05-092018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Flamengo does not lose to Ponte Preta
1913012018-05-092018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Copa do Brasil - Round of 16 first leg] Santos FC beats Luverdense
1913022018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru2Right[Premier League - Delayed matches] Leicester City does not lose to Arsenal
1913032018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Wrong[Premier League - Delayed matches] Chelsea beats Huddersfield Town
1913042018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Delayed matches] Tottenham beats Newcastle
1913052018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Delayed matches] Manchester City does not lose to Brighton
1913062018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Right[Coppa Italia - Final] Juventus beats AC Milan
1913072018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Wrong[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Celtic beats Kilmarnock
1913082018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Right[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Round 4] Hearts does not lose to Hibernian
1913092018-05-092018-05-09musashimaru1Right[Superliga Argentina - Round 25] Racing Club does not lose to Arsenal Sarandí
1913102018-05-092018-05-10musashimaru1Right[Copa Sudamericana - First stage second leg] Temuco does not lose to Estudiante Mérida
1913112018-05-092018-05-10musashimaru1Right[Copa Sudamericana - First stage second leg] São Paulo FC beats Rosário Central
1913122018-05-092018-05-10musashimaru1Right[Copa Sudamericana - First stage second leg] Botafogo does not lose to Audax Italiano
1913132018-05-102018-05-30davatk2Right[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Golden State will beat Houston.
1913142018-05-102018-05-30davatk2Right[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Cleveland will beat Boston.
1913152018-05-102018-05-10musashimaru1Right[Torneo Intermedio Uruguay - Group A ] Nacional beats Fénix
1913162018-05-102018-05-10musashimaru1Right[Superliga Argentina - Round 25] Boca Juniors does not lose to Gimnasia LP
1913192018-05-102018-05-10musashimaru1Right[Premier League - Round 31] Manchester United does not lose to West Ham
1913222018-05-102035-12-31PlacidPlatypus9Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.
1913352018-05-112018-05-12musashimaru1Right[Liga MX - Clausura SF first leg ] Club Tijuana does not lose to Deportivo Toluca
1913382018-05-112018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Scottish Premiership Playoffs - Semi-final second leg] Livingston does not lose to Dundee United
1913392018-05-112018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Primeira Liga - Round 34] Chaves does not lose to Desportivo das Aves
1913402018-05-112018-05-11musashimaru1Wrong[EFL Championship - Promotion play-offs ] Fulham does not lose to Derby County
1913412018-05-112018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Ligue 2 - Round 38] RC Lens does not lose to AJ Auxerre
1913422018-05-112018-05-11musashimaru1Right[Ligue 2 - Round 38] Nancy does not lose to US Orléans
1913472018-05-112019-01-01jbeshir1WrongBashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019
1913482018-05-112019-01-01jbeshir1WrongBefore 1 January 2019, any additional EU member state schedules a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone.
1913492018-05-112019-01-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, Middle East - There is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019
1913502018-05-112019-01-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, China - There is a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019
1913512018-05-122018-07-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - A bill restoring the DACA programme is voted on by the House of Representatives before the end of June 2018.
1913522018-05-122018-06-10jbeshir2RightTech - Apple announces a system for developing applications working on both macOS and iOS at WWDC.
1913532018-05-122018-06-10jbeshir2RightTech - Apple announces iOS 12 at WWDC.
1913542018-05-122018-06-10jbeshir2RightTech - Apple announces multi-user FaceTime call support at WWDC in 2018.
1913552018-05-122018-06-10jbeshir3WrongTech - Apple announces sleep tracking support for watchOS at WWDC in 2018.
1913562018-05-122035-01-01playablecharacter3Issa will get a PhD
1913572018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 34] Bayer Leverkusen does not lose to Hannover 96
1913582018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 34] Hoffenheim does not lose to Borussia Dortmund
1913592018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 34] Freiburg beats Augsburg
1913602018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 34] Wolfsburg does not lose FC Köln
1913612018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 34] Mainz 05 does not lose to Werder Bremen
1913622018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 34] Hamburger SV does not lose to Borussia Mönchengladbach
1913632018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Right[Bundesliga - Round 34] Schalke 04 does not lose Eintracht Frankfurt
1913642018-05-122018-05-12musashimaru1Wrong[Bundesliga - Round 34] Bayern Munich does not lose to Stuttgart
1913652018-05-122020-09-01Tschescheier7Us declares war on Iran by september 2020
1915512018-05-142018-05-14musashimaru1Right[Liga MX - Clausura SF second leg ] Deportivo Toluca beats Club Tijuana
1915612018-05-162019-05-16lettergram1RightAMD's stock hits $20 by May 16, 2019
1915722018-05-172018-05-19Cato1RightLee to beat Yamaguchi at ONE on May 18
1915862018-05-192018-10-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state?
1915872018-05-192018-10-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act?
1915882018-05-192018-10-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional?
1915892018-05-192018-10-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, US - In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional?
1915902018-05-192018-10-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals?
1915932018-05-192018-10-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional?
1915942018-05-192018-10-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?
1915952018-05-192018-06-08jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Texan governor announces support for additional restrictions or mandatory checks on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018.
1915962018-05-192018-06-08jbeshir2RightPolitics, US - Texan governor announces support for additional enforcement of existing restrictions or checks, or non-mandatory checks, on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018.
1915972018-05-192018-06-08jbeshir2WrongPolitics, South America - Pope Francis accepts resignation of at least ten of the Chilean bishops by the end of the 7th of June.
1915982018-05-192019-01-01Cato1RightBrent to remain above WTI throughout 2018 (end-of-day settlement).
1915992018-05-192018-06-13Cato4WrongKim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks
1916002018-05-192019-07-01Cato5Right"Game of Thrones" S8E1 to officially air in 2019 H1
1916012018-05-192018-10-01Cato1RightThe climate will be ENSO-neutral in 2018 Q3, according to the US NOAA.
1916022018-05-192018-05-19shardo2RightSankar is currently less than 10 posts into the book
1916092018-05-202019-07-16Cato2WrongGermany to win the World Cup
1916102018-05-202018-07-16Cato3WrongIran to win the World Cup
1916112018-05-202018-06-18Cato1WrongGermany to beat Mexico June 17
1916142018-05-202018-05-30pashak1WrongI will be asked to sign work contract before my trip to Greece and without pushing HR representatives.
1916172018-05-202018-06-03lukefreeman1WithdrawnI will make it to hiking if it’s on Sunday June 3
1917622018-05-252018-06-01Cato1RightKOSPI will be down EOM.
1917632018-05-262018-05-26jbeshir2RightPolitics, Ireland - At least 75% of voters in Dublin voted Yes in the referendum on 2018-05-25.
1917642018-05-262018-06-10jbeshir1WrongTech - TSB has restored online banking access to all its customers by end of 2018-06-10.
1917652018-05-262018-06-03jbeshir1WrongPolitics, Spain - Valtonyc arrested before end of 2018-06-03
1917682018-05-262018-07-01Cato1Right"Avengers: Infinity War" will make at least $2b worldwide in box office revenue by the end of June.
1917692018-05-262018-05-27Cato1WithdrawnJingnan Xiong to beat Laura Balin at ONE on May 26.
1917702018-05-262018-06-01Cato1RightITA will be up MoM at end of May.
1917712018-05-262018-05-27Cato1RightKristofic to beat Raska at Oktagon 6
1917722018-05-262018-06-10Cato2RightMilson Castro to beat Daniel Ucan Avila at Mayan Fight Night
1917732018-05-262018-06-09Cato1RightKrantz to beat Holdorf at LFA 42
1917742018-05-262018-06-08Cato1RightAndre Harrison to beat Jumabieke Tuerxun at PFL 1
1917752018-05-262018-06-03Cato2WithdrawnPessoa to beat Santos at Nemesis FC 1
1917762018-05-262018-06-03Cato2WrongJanssen to beat Zeitner at WLMMA 40
1917772018-05-262018-06-03Cato1WrongNgeleka to beat Ciumac at UMC 1
1917782018-05-262018-05-31Cato2RightWenbo Liu to beat Marcelo Tenorio at Rebel FC 8
1917792018-05-262018-05-28Cato2WrongSeiji Akao to beat Myung Gu Kim at Geat 42
1917802018-05-262018-05-27Cato2RightBenkaci to beat Orlov at Octogone 2
1917812018-05-262018-05-27Cato1RightDias to beat Machado at Shooto Brasil 84
1917822018-05-262018-05-27Cato2RightRVA to beat Gutierrez at JFL 19
1917832018-05-262018-05-27Cato1RightTsarukyan to beat Pfister at KLF/MFP 220
1917842018-05-262018-05-27Cato1WrongPopov to beat Gromov at ZFP 3
1919012018-05-302019-05-30Athrithalix4WrongBlue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months.
1919062018-05-312019-01-01Bruno Parga3WrongI have exercised 260 days this year.
1919332018-06-022018-08-01jbeshir2WrongBusiness, UK - Northern restores all cancelled daily rail services by the end of the 1st of August 2018.
1919342018-06-022018-07-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - New Hampshire HB 1319 passes the Senate before the end of June 2018.
1919352018-06-022018-07-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, US - New Hampshire Governor signs HB 1319 before the end of June 2018.
1919362018-06-022018-07-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - Former FBI Deputy Andrew McCabe charged for lying under oath by end of June 2018.
1919812018-06-102018-07-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, EU - Article 13 of the Copyright Directive passes before the end of June 2018.
1919822018-06-102018-07-01jbeshir7WrongPolitics - Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018.
1920612018-06-142018-06-15zachriddle1Withdrawn6/14 1on1 - AC - will use the phrase "over-engineering"
1920622018-06-142018-06-15zachriddle1Withdrawn6/14 1on1 – AC – Dialer Project 2 month estimate - Will ask at least 5 follow-up questions about time
1920632018-06-142018-07-31zachriddle1WithdrawnDialer Project - Will be deployed to prod making decisions after July 31
1920922018-06-162018-08-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - Permission is granted or objections withdrawn by the Home Office to permitting Billy Caldwell to have a prescription for a THC-containing medical product before the end of July 2018.
1920932018-06-162018-08-01jbeshir6RightPolitics, US - The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018.
1920962018-06-172019-01-01avi2WrongSITSA Act is signed into law.
1921092018-06-182018-07-15ldor_113WrongGermany will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
1921452018-06-192018-07-01Cato2RightResults about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM.
1921462018-06-192019-01-01Cato3WrongHK's Basic Law to be cancelled in 2018.
1921472018-06-192018-06-23Cato2RightOPEC will vote to increase oil production on June 22.
1921922018-06-232030-01-01gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com1Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030
1921932018-06-232030-01-01d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com1Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030
1921942018-06-232030-01-01d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com1The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030
1922672018-06-302018-12-31imaxwell2My relationship with L. will be ongoing as of the end of 2018.
1922692018-06-302018-07-14Joy5RightIt's a test prediction
1922852018-07-052025-05-16JoshuaZ4SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025
1923962018-07-102018-08-10splorridge1WrongUK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month
1923972018-07-102018-09-10splorridge2WrongUK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months
1923982018-07-102018-09-10splorridge3WrongUK politics: general election called in next two months
1924362018-07-162019-01-01Cato7WrongDonald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year.
1924372018-07-162018-10-29Cato2RightBolsonaro to be elected president of Brazil
1924382018-07-162018-09-01Cato2RightReddit to be blocked in China by August EOM
1924912018-07-192018-07-26elephantower1Wrongdavid kim wins primary in ga-07
1926202018-07-252020-01-01FestiveBleak10WrongTesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020.
1926342018-07-302018-08-30elephantower1Rightjones wins special election primary in MI-13
1926352018-07-302018-07-30elephantower1RightMcBath wins GA-07 Dem primary
1926362018-07-302018-07-30elephantower1Wrongshafer wins lt gov primary
1926372018-07-302018-07-30elephantower1RightMoV in GA GOP gov primary over 20%
1926512018-08-022018-11-07SeriousPod8RightDemocrats will not take the senate in 2018
1926522018-08-022020-11-04SeriousPod15Trump will not be re-elected in 2020
1926532018-08-022020-11-04SeriousPod1Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020
1926542018-08-022022-11-08SeriousPod2Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022
1926552018-08-022038-08-15JoshuaZ4Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038
1929432018-08-262018-08-26rk1RightAlexis up before 12
1929482018-08-272018-09-06Leo5WrongEthereal will win TCEC season 13
1929492018-08-272019-01-01Leo1Right[In 2018 I will read at least] 80 books
1929502018-08-272019-01-01Leo1Wrong[In 2018 I will read at least] 90 books
1929512018-08-272019-01-01Leo1Wrong[In 2018 I will read at least] 100 books
1929522018-08-272019-01-01Leo1Wrong[In 2018 I will read at least] 110 books
1929532018-08-272019-01-01Leo1Wrong[In 2018 I will read at least] 120 books
1929572018-08-282021-01-01lukefreeman8A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021
1930452018-08-302030-01-31prophetofprofit1Seth Frotman's concerns about student loan lending practices will be vindicated
1931422018-09-042018-12-04Somni1given S continues taking s in the next three months, they will blackout at least once in the next three months. will return inconclusive if the supposition is false.
1931612018-09-082019-09-28jbeshir2WrongUS, Politics - The "Fahrenheit 11/9" movie ranks 2nd in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/
1931622018-09-082019-06-01jbeshir5WrongPolitics, Central America - Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua.
1932222018-09-152019-01-01jbeshir3RightPolitics, Korea - Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang.
1932252018-09-152019-01-01jbeshir4RightPolitics, UK - Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01.
1933302018-09-232018-11-07lukefreeman2RightPolitics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018
1933332018-09-232048-09-23jhairguz.t@gmail.com1Finished the water
1933342018-09-232026-09-23jhairguz.t@gmail.com1Java va a desaparecer o perder el mercado, segun Diego de makerlab.
1933352018-09-232038-09-23jhairguz.t@gmail.com1Todas las pwrsonas usaremos IA al menos una vez en su vida en Peru, segun Marcos
1933422018-09-252039-01-01pranomostro3Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038.
1933432018-09-252086-01-01pranomostro2The first human being will be born on the moon between 2060 and 2085.
1933442018-09-252091-01-01pranomostro2The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090
1933452018-09-252056-01-01pranomostro2The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055.
1933462018-09-252064-01-01pranomostro2The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063.
1933472018-09-252086-01-01pranomostro2The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085.
1933482018-09-252053-01-01pranomostro3The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052
1933492018-09-252063-01-01pranomostro2The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062.
1933502018-09-252086-01-01pranomostro2The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085.
1933512018-09-252101-01-02pranomostro1Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon by 2100.
1933522018-09-252101-01-01pranomostro1Humanity will establish a permanent base on mars until 2100.
1933532018-09-252101-01-01pranomostro2At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive.
1933542018-09-252101-01-01pranomostro2AI goes FOOM until 2100.
1933552018-09-252101-01-01pranomostro1The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve.
1933872018-09-282019-08-01jbeshir3RightPolitics, US - In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison.
1933882018-09-282018-11-07jbeshir4RightPolitics, US - Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election,
1933892018-09-282019-01-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times "Resistance" op-ed.
1934092018-10-022018-10-30Adam Zerner1RightLeVeon Bell won't be traded
1934102018-10-022018-10-02Adam Zerner1WrongThe hotel room has a fridge
1934112018-10-022018-10-02Adam Zerner1RightThe hotel room has a big bathtub
1934122018-10-022018-10-02Adam Zerner1WrongThe hotel room has a king sized bed
1934132018-10-022018-10-04Adam Zerner1RightIt costs $200 or less to fix my bike
1934142018-10-022018-10-05Adam Zerner1RightIt costs $100 or less to fix my bike
1934152018-10-022018-10-05Adam Zerner1WrongThey fix my bike for free
1934322018-10-042018-10-04Adam Zerner1WrongWe get kicked out of the hotel
1934332018-10-052018-10-05Adam Zerner1WrongAlex and Jenny will be home
1934692018-10-102018-11-01notsonewuser1WrongI get at least a raise of at least 9%.
1934732018-10-112018-11-10krazemon1WrongLarry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election.
1934742018-10-112018-11-10krazemon3WrongLarry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election.
1934752018-10-112018-11-10krazemon2RightAndrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election.
1935252018-10-172018-12-01jbeshir1WrongPersonal - I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01.
1935282018-10-182018-10-18Adam Zerner1RightOne of my specs is screwed up
1935332018-10-192018-10-19jbeshir1WrongPersonal, Productivity - I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC
1935342018-10-192019-10-19peter_hurford3WrongEA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC).
1935352018-10-192019-10-19peter_hurford4WrongEA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC)
1935392018-10-202018-12-01jbeshir2WrongTech - Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018.
1935402018-10-202018-10-28jbeshir1WrongTech - Simon Segars (CEO of ARM) announces that they will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh before 2018-10-28.
1935412018-10-202018-11-07jbeshir3RightPolitics, US - California Proposition 12 in the November 2018 election passes.
1935872018-10-272019-01-01marianne3RightACE will announce THL as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018
1935882018-10-272019-01-01marianne3RightACE will announce Animal Equality as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018
1935892018-10-272019-01-01marianne2WrongACE will announce MFA as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018
1935992018-10-302018-12-08amadeu3Wrong[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Jens Spahn
1936002018-10-302018-12-08amadeu3Wrong[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Armin Laschet
1936012018-10-302018-12-08amadeu3Wrong[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Friedrich Merz
1936022018-10-302018-12-08amadeu3Wrong[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be...] Other
1936352018-11-052018-12-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018.
1936362018-11-052018-11-07jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - Martha McSally is elected senator for Arizona in the November 2018 election.
1936372018-11-052018-12-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics - Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December.
1936382018-11-062018-11-07rk1WrongIE (not Edge) market share between 15-30%
1936412018-11-082019-02-14rimbalzanoo3WrongJets will win the super bowl
1936622018-11-112019-03-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics, US - Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi,
1936632018-11-112018-12-29jbeshir3RightTech - Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion.
1936642018-11-112019-05-30jbeshir4RightPolitics, US - In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states.
1936672018-11-122018-11-28WilliamKiely10Wrong[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds
1936682018-11-122018-11-28WilliamKiely7Wrong[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds
1936692018-11-122018-11-28WilliamKiely12Right[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds
1936702018-11-122018-11-28WilliamKiely9Right[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds
1936712018-11-122018-11-28WilliamKiely7Right[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017)
1936722018-11-122018-11-28WilliamKiely10Right[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes
1936762018-11-122026-12-31amadeu5US will have universal health care system by 2026
1936952018-11-172018-11-24Somni1Wrongronit and somni will coordinate next week
1937032018-11-202019-01-04jbeshir2WrongPersonal, Accounts - My Money Dashboard totals are below -£2000 at the start of 2019-01-04.
1937042018-11-202018-12-29jbeshir2WrongEcon - The closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018 is between $1200 and $1250.
1937052018-11-202019-02-01jbeshir4WrongEcon - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower.
1937062018-11-202019-02-01jbeshir3RightEcon - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher.
1937092018-11-222019-02-19bendini3WrongEmergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project)
1937122018-11-242018-12-01Somni1Rightronit and somni will coordinate next week
1937132018-11-242018-11-25jbeshir1RightPersonal, Productivity - I spent at least three hours working on ML projects before the end of 2018-11-24 UTC.
1937142018-11-242019-01-31jbeshir2WrongEcon - The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive.
1937152018-11-242019-01-01jbeshir3WrongEcon - The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverts before 2019, as defined as the former having a higher figure in the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate on any one day prior to then.
1937162018-11-242019-04-02jbeshir4WrongEcon -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive.
1937332018-12-012018-12-14jmcglade1i will pass sra 311
1937372018-12-012019-01-01absurdseagull2WrongMy biomanufacturing partner will have a job within a month
1937382018-12-012021-12-31Michael Dickens8By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.
1937392018-12-012023-12-01jazzsolo3Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years.
1937502018-12-032023-12-31jazzsolo6Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years
1937512018-12-032028-12-31jazzsolo5Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years.
1937522018-12-032048-12-31jazzsolo3Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years.
1937532018-12-032118-12-31jazzsolo3Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years.
1937542018-12-032019-03-03jazzsolo11WrongTumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months.
1938232018-12-092019-08-01jbeshir5WrongBefore 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts.
1938242018-12-092020-01-01jbeshir6WrongPolitics - North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020.
1938312018-12-092019-01-30Noa Nabeshima1WithdrawnIf the chess AI competition occurs, I will win it.
1938382018-12-102020-02-01gallerdude2Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character
1938392018-12-102020-02-01gallerdude2WrongDoomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character
1938672018-12-182018-12-19leo_grint1Right<5 personnes restant au moins 5 min entre 17h30 et 18h50
1938682018-12-192018-12-28notsonewuser1WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-21).
1938692018-12-202019-02-15balfours_ghost2RightBryce Harper will sign a contract with minimum length of 10 years.
1938802018-12-212024-03-17Stommelen8Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)
1938932018-12-212020-01-01JoshuaZ2RightI will have at least one more math paper published before the end of 2019.
1939032018-12-222019-03-30jbeshir8WrongPolitics, UK - Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50.
1939042018-12-222019-07-01jbeshir14WrongPolitics, UK - There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party.
1939052018-12-222019-07-01jbeshir14WrongPolitics, UK - There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party.
1939062018-12-222019-02-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, US - U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 "Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions" for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019.
1939072018-12-242019-01-01jbeshir1RightPersonal - I buy a coat before the 1st of January 2019.
1939102018-12-272018-12-27notsonewuser1RightThe B's will be at the meeting.
1939392019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga2RightThe African Continental Free Trade Agreement has 22 ratifications or more.
1939402019-01-012020-01-01Jach1RightI will finish 8 or more books this year
1939472019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[Personal - my weight in kg is] <80
1939482019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[Personal - my weight in kg is] <85
1939492019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[Personal - my weight in kg is] <90
1939502019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[Personal - my weight in kg is] <95
1939512019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga3Wrong[Personal - my weight in kg is] <100
1939692019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative
1939702019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga1Right[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative
1939712019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion
1939722019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive
1939732019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive
1939742019-01-012020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive
1939752019-01-012019-04-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 40
1939762019-01-012019-04-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 45
1939772019-01-012019-04-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 50
1939782019-01-012019-04-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 55
1939792019-01-012019-04-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 60
1939802019-01-012019-04-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 65
1939812019-01-012019-04-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 70
1939822019-01-022019-07-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 85
1939832019-01-022019-07-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 105
1939842019-01-022019-07-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 115
1939852019-01-022019-07-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 125
1939862019-01-022019-07-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 130
1939872019-01-022019-07-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 135
1939882019-01-022019-10-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 135
1939892019-01-022019-10-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 150
1939902019-01-022019-10-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 165
1939912019-01-022019-10-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 180
1939922019-01-022019-10-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 195
1939932019-01-022019-10-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 200
1939942019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 262
1939952019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 260
1939962019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 250
1939972019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 240
1939982019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 230
1939992019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 220
1940002019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 210
1940012019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 200
1940022019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 190
1940032019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 180
1940042019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[My total days exercised this year:] 170
1940072019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga2RightPersonal: I still read reddit frequently
1940082019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga2WrongBulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro)
1940092019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga5RightThe Chavista regime rules Venezuela
1940102019-01-022019-12-10Bruno Parga7WrongMauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina
1940112019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga3WrongThe Taliban control most of Afghanistan including Kabul
1940122019-01-022019-09-11Bruno Parga2RightThe African National Congress wins the South African presidential elections
1940132019-01-022019-09-11Bruno Parga4RightThe Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election
1940142019-01-022023-01-01Bruno Parga2[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative
1940152019-01-022023-01-01Bruno Parga2[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative
1940162019-01-022023-01-01Bruno Parga2[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative
1940172019-01-022023-01-01Bruno Parga2[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion
1940182019-01-022023-01-01Bruno Parga2[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive
1940192019-01-022023-01-01Bruno Parga2[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive
1940202019-01-022023-01-01Bruno Parga2[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive
1940232019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Withdrawn[My predominant keyboard layout is] Colemak
1940242019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga1Withdrawn[My predominant keyboard layout is] Dvorak
1940352019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 2
1940362019-01-022020-01-01Bruno Parga2Wrong[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 3+
1940412019-01-022020-01-01Cato9Right[Fighting] UFC 245 to occur in 2019
1940422019-01-022020-01-01Cato8WrongSouth Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019.
1940432019-01-022020-01-01Cato3RightThe US 10y-1y yield curve will invert in 2019.
1940442019-01-022019-01-20Cato1WrongDillashaw to beat Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 143
1940452019-01-022019-01-20Cato1RightVanZant to beat Ostovich at UFC Fight Night 143
1940462019-01-022019-01-20Cato1WrongHernandez to beat Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 143
1940472019-01-022019-01-20Cato1RightGillespie to beat Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 143
1940482019-01-022019-02-01Cato5RightBrent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January
1940492019-01-022019-04-05Cato4RightBrent crude to remain above WTI throughout 1Q19
1940502019-01-022020-01-01Cato8WrongSame-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019.
1940512019-01-022019-08-01jacobgreenleaf2WrongTSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less.
1940572019-01-032020-01-01bobpage1WrongI will move before 2020
1940602019-01-042019-04-05Cato10Wrong[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel
1940612019-01-042019-04-05Cato11Right[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $60 and $70/barrel
1940622019-01-042019-04-05Cato9Wrong[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel
1940632019-01-042020-01-01Cato25RightDonald Trump to be impeached in 2019
1940642019-01-042019-01-27Cato1WithdrawnAskren to beat Lawler at UFC 233
1940652019-01-042019-02-01Cato2WrongI will finish "Stories of the Sahara" in January.
1940662019-01-042019-03-01Cato2WrongI will leave the country at least once before March 1.
1940672019-01-042019-04-01Cato8WrongAll charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019.
1940682019-01-042019-04-05Cato1WrongWTI forward curve to be upsloped for all of 1Q19.
1940692019-01-042019-01-11notsonewuser1WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-04).
1940722019-01-052019-03-01notsonewuser13RightThe US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019.
1940732019-01-052019-04-01notsonewuser5RightThe US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019.
1940742019-01-052019-03-05Adam Zerner1WrongThe Steelers don't pick up Dupree's $9M option
1940752019-01-052019-03-05Adam Zerner1RightThe Steelers don't continue with Antonio Brown
1940762019-01-052019-03-05Adam Zerner1WrongKeith Butler gets fired
1940772019-01-052019-03-05Adam Zerner1RightMike Tomlin doesn't get fired
1940782019-01-052019-03-05Adam Zerner1RightRandy Fitchner doesn't get fired
1940892019-01-072019-03-30jbeshir5WrongPolitics, UK - Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019.
1940902019-01-072019-08-01jbeshir4WrongPolitics, UK - Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019.
1940912019-01-072020-01-01Cato5WrongI will move to another city by the end of 2019.
1940942019-01-072101-01-01pranomostro1"We will not discover a way to create even small worlds (e.g. a house-sized world)"
1940952019-01-082019-02-01Cato3Wrong[Books] I will finish reading "Restless Empire" by January EOM.
1940962019-01-082019-03-01Cato2Right[Books] I will finish Vogel's biography of DXP by February EOM.
1940972019-01-082019-02-01Cato5Right[Personal] I will go to the gym 12x in the remaining 24 days in January.
1940982019-01-082019-04-06playablecharacter1WrongI have sex at least once in the next 3 months
1940992019-01-082019-01-16jbeshir2WrongUK - Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 fails to be substantiated (reinforced by other evidence and authorities describe as credible) before or on 2019-01-15.
1941002019-01-082019-01-16jbeshir2WrongUK - Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 leads to an arrest before or on 2019-01-15.
1941012019-01-082030-01-02pranomostro1At least 20 of the top 100 websites (Alexa rank) will only be usable (core functionality) after having paid a fee
1941032019-01-082030-01-01pranomostro1Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin
1941042019-01-082025-01-01pranomostro7One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.
1941052019-01-092019-04-01Cato7WrongUS & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019.
1941062019-01-092019-01-20Cato2Wrong[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Betting Odds
1941072019-01-092019-01-20Cato1Wrong[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve)
1941082019-01-092019-01-20Cato1Wrong[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated)
1941092019-01-092019-01-20Cato1Wrong[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace
1941102019-01-092019-01-20Cato1Wrong[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve)
1941112019-01-092019-01-20Cato1Right[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated)
1941122019-01-092019-09-30Cato3RightEstonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period.
1941132019-01-092019-03-04Cato4Right[Politics] Centre Party (Keskerakond) to remain in government after the 2019 Estonian elections.
1941142019-01-092020-06-10lettergram2RightApple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs
1941162019-01-092019-12-31objclone4Wrong$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100
1941192019-01-102019-01-14Cato1Wrong[Personal] I will go to the cinema before Monday.
1941202019-01-102019-01-27Cato1Right[Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214.
1941212019-01-102019-03-03Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Diaz and Masvidal to fight at UFC 235.
1941222019-01-102020-01-01Cato8Wrong[Fighting] Conor McGregor to fight in a discipline other than MMA in 2019
1941232019-01-102020-01-01Cato8Wrong[Fighting] Daniel Cormier to fight Jon Jones in 2019
1941242019-01-102019-05-12Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Rose Namajunas to beat Jessica Andrade at UFC 237
1941422019-01-112019-03-01Cato2WrongNASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28
1941432019-01-112019-01-18notsonewuser1WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-11).
1941502019-01-142019-01-21Cato1Right[Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend.
1941512019-01-142019-03-03Cato2Wrong[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman
1941522019-01-142019-03-03Cato2Right[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler
1941532019-01-142019-03-03Cato2Right[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith
1941542019-01-142019-02-18Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1
1941552019-01-142019-01-16Cato1Right[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2018-12 to have exceeded production in 2018-11
1941562019-01-142019-04-01Cato5Wrong[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1
1941572019-01-142020-01-01Cato2Right[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019
1941582019-01-142019-07-01Cato3Right[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1
1941592019-01-142020-01-01Cato10Right[Economy] S&P 500 to outperform Shanghai Stock Index in 2019
1941642019-01-152019-04-01Cato15Wrong[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1.
1941652019-01-152019-04-01Cato10Wrong[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1.
1941742019-01-162019-01-17Cato1Right[Personal] I will set a deadlift volume PR today.
1941752019-01-162019-07-15objclone4WrongUSD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19
1941762019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia9RightTrump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020
1941772019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia3Right1 or more "CRISPR babies" will be announced before the end of 2019
1941782019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia1Personal - My mother will be called about the possibility of donor organs before the end of 2019
1941792019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia1Personal - My mother will undergo transplant surgery before the end of 2019
1941832019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia1WithdrawnPersonal - I will experience NENB at least once in 2019
1941902019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia2Personal - I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019
1941912019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia2Personal - I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019
1941922019-01-162020-01-01Selentelechia1Personal - I will be able to complete one unassisted pull-up at least once in 2019
1942122019-01-182019-01-19Cato1Right[Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today.
1942202019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro5Right"Donald Trump will still be in office"
1942212019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro1Wrong"No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019"
1942222019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro2Right"The US will not enter a recession"
1942232019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Congress will not authorize funding for a full-length border wall"
1942242019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro2Right"US homicides will decline"
1942252019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro3Wrong"The United Kingdom will leave the European Union"
1942262019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro2Right"Narendra Modi will continue as Indian prime minister after the 2019 elections"
1942272019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Neither India nor China will enter a recession"
1942282019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Malaria deaths will decrease"
1942292019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro4Right"No additional countries will adopt a universal basic income"
1942302019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro3Right"More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018"
1942312019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro1Wrong"Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain"
1942322019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Fully autonomous self-driving cars will not be commercially available as taxis or for sale"
1942332019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro2Right"DeepMind will release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain"
1942342019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro2Right"Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018"
1942352019-01-192020-01-01pranomostro2Right"Global carbon emissions will increase"
1942472019-01-212019-03-01Cato3Right[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet by February EOM
1942482019-01-212019-03-01Cato4Right[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam
1942492019-01-212019-04-01Cato3WrongTaiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1
1942502019-01-212019-07-01Cato11WrongTaiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1
1942512019-01-212020-01-01Cato5WrongTaiwan to declare independence in 2019
1942522019-01-212019-05-01Cato14RightEmperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30
1942532019-01-212019-05-07Cato5RightThe winner of the 2019 World Snooker Championship to be British
1942582019-01-212019-01-22dmwit1WrongI will attend go club today.
1942592019-01-212019-01-22dmwit1WrongI will do eight hours of productive work today.
1942622019-01-222020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Fighting] Dominick Cruz to fight in 2019
1942632019-01-222020-01-01Cato8Wrong[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight Conor McGregor in 2019
1942642019-01-222019-01-25Cato2Wrong[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-18 relative to 2019-01-11
1942652019-01-222019-01-30Cato3Wrong[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-25 relative to 2019-01-18
1942682019-01-222020-11-05KangaRookie14[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020.
1942692019-01-222019-01-28Cato3Wrong[Personal] I will leave the country this weekend.
1943042019-01-262019-12-31jacobgreenleaf2WrongChina will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year.
1943052019-01-262019-01-26notsonewuser1WrongTom Brady is under 40.
1943062019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro3Wrong"Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field"
1943072019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Wrong"Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field"
1943082019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Joe Biden leads the Democratic field"
1943092019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro6Wrong"Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field"
1943102019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Trump is still leading in prediction markets to be Republican nominee"
1943112019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro2Right"Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican"
1943122019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro4Right"Trump’s approval rating below 50"
1943132019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro2Wrong"Trump’s approval rating below 40"
1943142019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro5Right"Ginsberg [sic!] still alive"
1943152019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro3Right"Bitcoin above 1000"
1943162019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro4Right"Bitcoin above 3000"
1943172019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro4Right"Bitcoin above 5000"
1943182019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro3Right"Bitcoin above Ethereum"
1943192019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Dow above current value of 25000"
1943202019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Wrong"SpaceX successfully launches and returns crewed spacecraft"
1943212019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Wrong"SpaceX Starship reaches orbit"
1943222019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro3Right"No city where a member of the general public can ride self-driving car without attendant"
1943232019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Wrong"I can buy an Impossible Burger at a grocery store within a 30 minute walk from my house"
1943242019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Right"Pregabalin successfully goes generic and costs less than $100/month on GoodRx.com"
1943252019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Right"No further CRISPR-edited babies born"
1943262019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro5Wrong"Britain out of EU"
1943272019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro14Wrong"Britain holds second Brexit referendum"
1943282019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro7Right"No other EU country announces plan to leave"
1943292019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro1Wrong"China does not manage to avert economic crisis (subjective)"
1943302019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro13Right"Xi still in power"
1943312019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro5Right"MbS still in power"
1943322019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro9Wrong"May still in power"
1943332019-01-262020-01-01pranomostro2Right"Nothing more embarassing than Vigano memo happens to Pope Francis"
1943552019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Withdrawn[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 0 books
1943562019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 1 book
1943572019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 2 books
1943582019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 3 books
1943592019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 4 books
1943602019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 5 books
1943612019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 6 books
1943622019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 7 books
1943632019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 8 books
1943642019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 9 books
1943652019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 10 books
1943662019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 11 books
1943672019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 12 books
1943682019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 13 books
1943692019-02-012019-02-11Cato1Wrong[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 14 books
1943742019-02-012019-10-01Cato4WrongChina's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ
1943752019-02-012019-07-01Cato8WrongChina's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ
1943762019-02-012019-04-01Cato4WrongChina's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ
1943772019-02-012020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019
1943782019-02-012019-07-01Cato11Wrong[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ
1943792019-02-012019-04-01Cato7Wrong[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ
1943802019-02-012019-04-01Cato7Wrong[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ
1943812019-02-012019-07-01Cato8Wrong[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ
1943822019-02-012019-04-01Cato5Wrong[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ
1943832019-02-012019-07-01Cato10Wrong[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ
1943892019-02-022050-03-01xdxdxd3Insects can feel pain and suffer
1943902019-02-022020-01-01Cato15Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in December for which data are published
1943912019-02-022019-12-01Cato17Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published
1943922019-02-022019-11-01Cato12Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published
1943932019-02-022019-10-01Cato12Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published
1943942019-02-022019-09-01Cato13Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in August for which data are published
1943952019-02-022019-08-01Cato15Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published
1943962019-02-022019-07-01Cato11Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published
1943972019-02-022019-06-01Cato9Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published
1943982019-02-022019-05-01Cato8Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in April for which data are published
1943992019-02-022019-04-01Cato6Right[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in March for which data are published
1944002019-02-022019-05-02Cato6Wrong[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] June 19 FOMC meeting
1944012019-02-022019-05-02Cato5Wrong[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] July 31 FOMC meeting
1944022019-02-022019-05-02Cato5Wrong[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] September 18 FOMC meeting
1944032019-02-022019-05-02Cato7Wrong[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting
1944042019-02-022019-05-02Cato6Wrong[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] December 11 FOMC meeting
1944052019-02-022019-07-01Cato9Wrong[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1
1944062019-02-022019-05-01Cato4Right[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of April than at end of March 2019
1944072019-02-022019-04-01Cato3Wrong[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019
1944082019-02-022019-05-01Cato12Wrong[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months
1944092019-02-022020-01-01bklorimer4RightTrump will not be impeached
1944452019-02-112019-03-11dmwit1WrongI will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=0
1944462019-02-112019-03-11dmwit1RightI will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=1
1944472019-02-112019-03-11dmwit1WrongI will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=2
1944482019-02-112019-03-11dmwit1WrongI will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=3
1944492019-02-112019-03-11dmwit1WrongI will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X>=4
1944532019-02-122020-01-01Bruno Parga2RightKosovo has <117 diplomatic recognitions
1944562019-02-122019-02-18Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] "Laplace" to perform best
1944572019-02-122019-02-18Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] "Reach" to perform best
1944582019-02-122019-02-18Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] None of the three models to outperform chance
1944592019-02-122019-02-18Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly one of the three models to outperform chance
1944602019-02-122019-02-18Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly two of the three models to outperform chance
1944612019-02-122019-02-18Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] All three models to outperform chance
1944662019-02-132020-12-31Coagulopath8No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019
1944672019-02-132020-12-21Coagulopath1Business income grows by at least 10%
1944682019-02-132020-12-31Coagulopath4Bitcoin finishes year < $10k USD
1944692019-02-132020-12-31Coagulopath2Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets
1944702019-02-132020-12-31Coagulopath1Darksydephil loses his house (or begins an unavoidable slide in that direction)
1944712019-02-132020-12-31Coagulopath12Donald Trump is still president
1944722019-02-132020-12-31Coagulopath4Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year
1944802019-02-142022-01-01Cato7RightSaudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021
1944812019-02-142021-01-01Cato9RightSaudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020
1944822019-02-142020-01-01Cato5RightSaudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019
1944832019-02-142020-02-14shardo1WrongHaving an agw for myself.
1944862019-02-152019-10-22RedScharlach1Wrong[Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019
1944872019-02-152019-10-30RedScharlach2Wrong[Baseball] The New York Mets will win the World Series in 2019
1944882019-02-152021-01-20RedScharlach10[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term
1944892019-02-152020-11-03RedScharlach9[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term
1944902019-02-152020-11-03RedScharlach5Right[Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump
1944912019-02-162019-02-22notsonewuser2WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-15).
1944922019-02-162020-01-01jbeshir5WrongPolitics, US - Mick Mulvaney ceases to be Chief of Staff before the 1st of January, 2020
1944932019-02-162020-01-01jbeshir6WrongBefore 1 January 2020, any EU member state besides the UK sets a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone.
1944942019-02-172020-01-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics - Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020.
1944982019-02-172019-04-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - Current Labour MP resigns the whip before 2019-04-01
1944992019-02-172019-03-01jbeshir2WrongScience - Conditional on being given an answer, I'm told that a majority of participants in the VAC066 trial did not develop malaria at the end of the monitoring period.
1945022019-02-182020-01-01Cato7Right[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances again in 2019
1945082019-02-192019-02-24Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance
1945092019-02-192019-02-24Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance
1945102019-02-192019-02-24Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] None of the models to outperform chance
1945112019-02-192019-02-24Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] "Reach" to perform best
1945122019-02-192019-02-24Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] "Laplace" to perform best
1945132019-02-192019-02-24Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] "Market" to perform best
1945142019-02-192019-03-03Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC 235] All three models to outperform chance
1945152019-02-192019-03-03Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance
1945162019-02-192019-03-03Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance
1945172019-02-192019-03-03Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC 235] None of the models to outperform chance
1945182019-02-192019-03-03Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC 235] "Reach" to perform best
1945192019-02-192019-03-03Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC 235] "Laplace" to perform best
1945202019-02-192019-03-03Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC 235] "Market" to perform best
1945262019-02-232019-03-01notsonewuser1WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-02-22).
1945412019-02-272019-12-31bshih2RightA PC standalone, F2P version of AutoChess will launch (defined as open to everyone, even if it's early access or beta) within 2019.
1945452019-02-282019-07-21Cato5Wrong[Politics] Afghanistan to hold presidential elections as (re)scheduled on July 20, 2019
1945462019-02-282019-03-21Cato3Wrong[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] raise rate
1945472019-02-282019-03-21Cato2Wrong[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] reduce rate
1945482019-02-282019-03-21Cato3Right[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged
1945492019-02-282019-05-02Cato5Wrong[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] raise rate
1945502019-02-282019-05-02Cato5Wrong[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] reduce rate
1945512019-02-282019-05-02Cato6Right[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged
1945522019-02-282019-06-20Cato6Wrong[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] raise rate
1945532019-02-282019-06-20Cato5Wrong[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] reduce rate
1945542019-02-282019-06-20Cato5Right[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged
1945552019-02-282019-08-01Cato8Wrong[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate
1945562019-02-282019-08-01Cato10Right[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate
1945572019-02-282019-08-01Cato10Wrong[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged
1945582019-02-282019-09-19Cato6Wrong[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate
1945592019-02-282019-09-19Cato9Right[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate
1945602019-02-282019-09-19Cato7Wrong[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged
1945612019-02-282019-10-31Cato7Wrong[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] raise rate
1945622019-02-282019-10-31Cato8Right[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] reduce rate
1945632019-02-282019-10-31Cato8Wrong[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged
1945642019-02-282019-12-12Cato8Wrong[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] raise rate
1945652019-02-282019-12-12Cato8Wrong[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] reduce rate
1945662019-02-282019-12-12Cato8Right[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged
1945672019-02-282019-08-01Cato8Right[Politics] Robert Mueller to have submitted final report on Trump-Russia investigation by end of July 2019
1945682019-02-282019-08-01Cato5Right[Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general
1945692019-02-282019-06-05Cato3Wrong[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled
1945702019-02-282019-06-05Cato3Wrong[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled
1945712019-02-282019-06-05Cato3Wrong[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled
1945722019-02-282019-06-05Cato4Wrong[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled
1945732019-02-282019-06-01Cato9Right[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM
1945742019-02-282019-07-01Cato9Right[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through June EOM
1945752019-02-282019-08-08Cato10Right[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM
1945762019-02-282019-09-01Cato9Right[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through August EOM
1945772019-02-282019-10-01Cato9Right[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM
1945842019-03-012019-03-10Cato1Wrong[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] "Reach" to perform best
1945852019-03-012019-03-10Cato1Wrong[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] "Laplace" to perform best
1945862019-03-012019-03-10Cato1Wrong[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] None of the models to outperform chance
1945872019-03-012019-03-10Cato1Wrong[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance
1945882019-03-012019-03-10Cato1Right[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance
1945892019-03-012019-03-10Cato1Wrong[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] All three of the models to outperform chance
1945932019-03-012019-10-14wheat2Hbox will win Pound, Smash N' Splash, Shine and The Big House in 2019
1946062019-03-042019-04-01Cato7Right[Estonian governing coalition] to include Pro Patria (Isamaa)
1946072019-03-042019-04-01Cato6Wrong[Estonian governing coalition] to include Social Democrats (SDE)
1946082019-03-042019-04-01Cato7Wrong[Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019
1946112019-03-042020-01-01Cato11Wrong[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Riga in 2019
1946122019-03-042020-01-01Cato10Wrong[OMX Tallinn] to outperform S&P 500 in 2019
1946132019-03-042020-01-01Cato12Right[OMX Tallinn] to perform better in 2019 than in 2018
1946252019-03-052019-04-03Cato5Wrong[Economy] UK's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for March 2019 to be higher than any month after July 2016
1946262019-03-052019-06-01Cato2Right[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election
1946272019-03-052019-07-01Cato6Right[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate
1946282019-03-052019-06-01Cato13Wrong[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM
1946292019-03-052019-05-01Cato22Wrong[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM
1946302019-03-052019-08-01Cato6Right[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate
1946312019-03-052020-01-01Cato8Wrong[Fighting] Georges St-Pierre to fight again in 2019
1946322019-03-052019-10-22Cato4Right[Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019
1946332019-03-052019-10-22Cato2Wrong[Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election
1946342019-03-052020-01-01Cato4WrongBritish Museum to return Hoa Hakananai’a to Rapa Nui in 2019
1946352019-03-052019-10-28Cato4Withdrawn[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] < 35
1946362019-03-052019-10-28Cato4Withdrawn[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] between 35 and 40
1946372019-03-052019-10-28Cato4Wrong[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40
1946382019-03-052019-10-28Cato6Wrong[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019
1946392019-03-052020-01-01Cato2US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018
1946402019-03-052019-09-01Cato8WrongHarley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019
1946412019-03-052019-08-01Cato1WithdrawnUber to file for IPO before August 1
1946422019-03-052019-05-27Cato6Right[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election
1946432019-03-052019-04-01Cato2Right[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 1Q19 EOQ
1946442019-03-052019-07-01Cato5Right[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2Q19 EOQ
1946452019-03-052019-10-01Cato5Right[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ
1946462019-03-052020-01-01Cato5Right[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2019 EOY
1946782019-03-052019-05-12Cato1Right[Fighting] Namajunas and Andrade to fight at UFC 237 as scheduled
1946792019-03-052020-01-01Cato5Right[Fighting] No more UFC "numbered events" to be canceled or rescheduled in 2019
1946802019-03-052020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] A UFC champion to move to a different promotion (e.g., ONE or Bellator)
1946812019-03-052020-01-01Cato6RightUber IPO valuation bigger than Lyft's, conditional on 2019 IPOs
1946842019-03-052020-01-01Cato4Wrong[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019
1946852019-03-052019-07-01Cato3Wrong[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 H1
1946862019-03-052020-01-01Cato7Right[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019
1946872019-03-052019-07-01Cato5Wrong[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 H1
1946882019-03-052020-01-01Cato4Right[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019
1946892019-03-052019-07-01Cato4Right[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 H1
1946902019-03-052020-01-01Cato5Wrong[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019
1946912019-03-052019-07-01Cato5Wrong[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 H1
1946922019-03-052020-01-01Cato6Wrong[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019
1946932019-03-052019-07-01Cato7Wrong[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 H1
1946942019-03-052020-01-01Cato6Wrong[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019
1946952019-03-052019-07-01Cato3Right[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 H1
1946962019-03-052020-01-01Cato2Right[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019
1946972019-03-052019-07-01Cato4Wrong[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 H1
1946982019-03-052020-01-01Cato5Wrong[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019
1946992019-03-052020-01-01Cato1Withdrawn[Personal] I will have applied to at least 5 jobs by the end of December, if I have not yet accepted an offer
1947002019-03-052019-12-01Cato1Withdrawn[Personal] I will have applied to at least 5 jobs by the end of November, if I have not yet accepted an offer
1947152019-03-052020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Politics] Singapore to hold general election in 2019
1947182019-03-062019-06-01Cato9Withdrawn[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou
1947192019-03-062019-06-01Cato5Withdrawn[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] releasing Meng Wanzhou
1947202019-03-062019-08-01Cato5Right[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate
1947212019-03-062019-07-01Cato6Right[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for first Democratic primary debate
1947222019-03-062019-10-01Cato12Withdrawn[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] under 20,000
1947232019-03-062019-10-01Cato11Withdrawn[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 20,000 and 26,000
1947242019-03-062019-10-01Cato10Right[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000
1947252019-03-062019-10-01Cato11Withdrawn[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] over 30,000
1947262019-03-062019-03-10Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] EZdS to beat Curtis Millender
1947272019-03-062019-03-10Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Tim Means to beat Niko Price
1947282019-03-062019-03-10Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Alex White to beat Dan Moret
1947292019-03-062019-03-10Cato1Wrong[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Sergio Moraes to beat Anthony Martin
1947302019-03-062019-03-10Cato1Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Matt Schnell to beat Louis Smolka
1947652019-03-082020-01-01wheat2Hungrybox will not a drop a set in Melee in 2019
1947662019-03-092019-03-15notsonewuser1WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-08).
1947732019-03-102021-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum5Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021
1947742019-03-102019-03-14Tapetum-Lucidum8RightBlackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday
1947752019-03-102020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum13WrongMaduro ousted before end of 2019
1947942019-03-122019-10-15Cato10RightLibyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3
1947952019-03-122020-01-15Cato12RightLibyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4
1948302019-03-132019-04-18Cato2Right[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to re-elect Joko Widodo as president
1948312019-03-132019-04-10Cato2Right[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to be held as scheduled on April 9, 2019
1948322019-03-132019-04-10Cato3Right[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to see Likud gain seats (from current 30)
1948372019-03-132019-05-20Cato4WrongTaiwan to participate in World Health Assembly in May 2019 (observer status counts)
1948542019-03-132019-04-10Cato2Right[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2020 US crude oil production
1948592019-03-132019-08-01Cato12Right[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate
1949102019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Withdrawn[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken)
1949112019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Withdrawn[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil
1949122019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Withdrawn[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am)
1949132019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Withdrawn[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX
1949142019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Withdrawn[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase)
1949152019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Withdrawn[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase)
1949162019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Wrong[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil
1949172019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Right[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am)
1949182019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Right[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX
1949192019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Wrong[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase)
1949202019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Wrong[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase)
1949212019-03-142019-04-02Cato3Right[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken)
1949222019-03-152020-01-01WilliamKiely3Right[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2020
1949232019-03-152020-01-01WilliamKiely3Right[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2021
1949242019-03-152020-01-01WilliamKiely3[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2022
1949252019-03-152020-01-01WilliamKiely3[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2023
1949262019-03-152020-01-01WilliamKiely3[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2024
1949272019-03-152020-01-01WilliamKiely3[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2025
1949282019-03-152020-06-01Tapetum-Lucidum10WrongBeto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee
1949292019-03-152019-07-06Cato6WrongSoyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019
1949302019-03-152019-08-22Cato8RightSoyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019
1949422019-03-162019-03-16notsonewuser1WrongThe web page had different behavior before a recent code change.
1949432019-03-172020-01-01waveman9RightNo Brexit by EOY 2019
1949442019-03-172020-01-01waveman1WrongI will get to 67kg by EOY 2019
1949512019-03-182019-04-19Cato1Withdrawn[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd)
1949522019-03-182019-04-19Cato1Withdrawn[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd)
1949532019-03-182019-04-19Cato1Withdrawn[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts after 2019 H1
1949542019-03-182019-04-19Cato1Withdrawn[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] no change to cut level of 1.2 MMbpd or duration
1949552019-03-182019-07-30Cato10Right[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration of present cuts but no change in scale from 1.2 MMbpd
1949562019-03-182019-07-30Cato10Wrong[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd)
1949572019-03-182019-07-30Cato10Wrong[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd)
1949582019-03-182019-07-30Cato10Wrong[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts
1949592019-03-182020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas
1949602019-03-182020-01-01Cato5Right[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen
1949612019-03-182020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include anyone from mainland China in top 10
1949622019-03-182020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to give Theresa May top spot
1949632019-03-182020-01-01Cato5Right[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to give Angela Merkel top spot
1949642019-03-182020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to give an American top spot
1949652019-03-182020-01-01Cato6Right[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include at least five Americans in the top 10
1949662019-03-182020-01-01Cato4Right[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include at least six Americans in the top 10
1949672019-03-182020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include at least 7 Americans in the top 10
1949682019-03-182020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Forbes "The World's 100 Most Powerful Women" for 2019] to include fewer than five Americans in the top 10
1949762019-03-192020-01-01Cato3RightA non-Marvel film to outgross "Captain Marvel" in 2019
1949772019-03-192020-01-01Cato6RightAny film to outgross "Captain Marvel" in 2019
1949802019-03-192019-07-01Cato5Right[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account
1949812019-03-192020-01-01Cato7Wrong[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government
1949822019-03-192020-01-01Cato6Right[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account
1949832019-03-192020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include more Chinese companies than American
1949842019-03-192020-01-01Cato3Right[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list Walmart as the largest company in the world
1949852019-03-192020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 Chinese companies in the top 10
1949862019-03-192020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 American companies in the top 10
1949872019-03-192020-01-01Cato4Right[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10
1949882019-03-192020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 40 "newcomers"
1949892019-03-192020-01-01Cato3Right[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 "newcomer" in the top 100
1949902019-03-192019-07-01Cato2Right[Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019 H1
1949912019-03-192020-01-01Cato2Right[Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019
1949922019-03-192020-01-01Cato5Wrong[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the EU
1949932019-03-192020-01-01Cato5Wrong[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the EU
1949942019-03-192020-01-01Cato4Wrong[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the eurozone
1949952019-03-192020-01-01Cato4Wrong[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the eurozone
1950062019-03-202019-05-07Cato6Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950072019-03-202019-05-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950082019-03-202019-05-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950092019-03-202019-05-07Cato12Right[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950102019-03-202019-05-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950112019-03-202019-05-07Cato7Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950122019-03-202019-05-07Cato6Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950132019-03-202019-06-07Cato6Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40
1950142019-03-202019-06-07Cato6Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950152019-03-202019-06-07Cato7Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950162019-03-202019-06-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950172019-03-202019-06-07Cato9Right[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950182019-03-202019-06-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950192019-03-202019-06-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950202019-03-202019-06-07Cato6Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950212019-03-202019-07-07Cato7Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] under $40
1950222019-03-202019-07-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950232019-03-202019-07-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950242019-03-202019-07-07Cato9Right[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950252019-03-202019-07-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950262019-03-202019-07-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950272019-03-202019-07-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950282019-03-202019-07-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950292019-03-202019-08-08Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40
1950302019-03-202019-08-08Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950312019-03-202019-08-08Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950322019-03-202019-08-08Cato9Right[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950332019-03-202019-08-08Cato7Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950342019-03-202019-08-08Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950352019-03-202019-08-08Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950362019-03-202019-08-08Cato7Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950372019-03-202019-09-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] under $40
1950382019-03-202019-09-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950392019-03-202019-09-07Cato9Right[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950402019-03-202019-09-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950412019-03-202019-09-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950422019-03-202019-09-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950432019-03-202019-09-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950442019-03-202019-09-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950452019-03-202019-10-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40
1950462019-03-202019-10-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950472019-03-202019-10-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950482019-03-202019-10-07Cato10Right[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950492019-03-202019-10-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950502019-03-202019-10-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950512019-03-202019-10-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950522019-03-202019-10-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950532019-03-202019-11-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40
1950542019-03-202019-11-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950552019-03-202019-11-07Cato10Right[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950562019-03-202019-11-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950572019-03-202019-11-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950582019-03-202019-11-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950592019-03-202019-11-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950602019-03-202019-11-07Cato8Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950612019-03-202019-12-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] under $40
1950622019-03-202019-12-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950632019-03-202019-12-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950642019-03-202019-12-07Cato11Right[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950652019-03-202019-12-07Cato12Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950662019-03-202019-12-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950672019-03-202019-12-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950682019-03-202019-12-07Cato9Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950692019-03-202020-01-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] under $40
1950702019-03-202020-01-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99
1950712019-03-202020-01-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99
1950722019-03-202020-01-07Cato12Right[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99
1950732019-03-202020-01-07Cato12Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99
1950742019-03-202020-01-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99
1950752019-03-202020-01-07Cato11Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99
1950762019-03-202020-01-07Cato10Wrong[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] higher than $100
1950772019-03-202019-09-01Cato5WrongQatar to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM
1950782019-03-202019-09-01Cato5WrongIndonesia to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM
1950792019-03-202019-09-01Cato4RightOPEC to have exactly 14 members at August 2019 EOM
1950802019-03-202019-09-01Cato4WrongOPEC to have fewer than 14 members at August 2019 EOM
1950812019-03-202019-09-01Cato4WrongOPEC to have more than 14 members at August 2019 EOM
1950822019-03-202019-03-306thNapoleon12WrongThe UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March
1950832019-03-212020-09-06davatk5[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Stacey Abrams
1950842019-03-212020-09-06davatk5[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Julian Castro
1950852019-03-212020-09-06davatk4[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] John Hickenlooper
1950862019-03-212020-09-06davatk4[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kirsten Gillibrand
1950872019-03-212020-09-06davatk11[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke
1950882019-03-212020-09-06davatk7[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Andrew Yang
1950892019-03-212020-09-06davatk5[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Elizabeth Warren
1950902019-03-212020-09-06davatk11[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg
1950912019-03-212020-09-06davatk5[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Amy Klobuchar
1950922019-03-212020-09-06davatk7[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard
1951012019-03-212019-06-16Cato4Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.2 MMbpd
1951022019-03-212019-06-16Cato4Right[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.5 MMbpd
1951032019-03-212019-06-16Cato4Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd
1951042019-03-212019-06-16Cato4Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd
1951052019-03-212019-06-16Cato4Right[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb
1951062019-03-212019-06-16Cato5Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd
1951072019-03-212019-09-16Cato7Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.1 MMbpd
1951082019-03-212019-09-16Cato7Right[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.6 MMbpd
1951092019-03-212019-09-16Cato7Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd
1951102019-03-212019-09-16Cato8Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd
1951112019-03-212019-09-16Cato7Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb
1951122019-03-212019-09-16Cato7Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd
1951132019-03-212019-12-16Cato11Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1 MMbpd
1951142019-03-212019-12-16Cato10Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.7 MMbpd
1951152019-03-212019-12-16Cato10Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] UK to produce at least 1.4 MMbpd
1951162019-03-212019-12-16Cato11Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OPEC to produce at least 32 MMbpd
1951172019-03-212019-12-16Cato10Right[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb
1951182019-03-212019-12-16Cato11Wrong[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.7 MMbpd
1951192019-03-212020-01-01Cato2Wrong[US Politics] Mueller report to state explicitly that Donald Trump is guilty of a crime, or that sufficient evidence exists to justify indictment
1951562019-03-222019-04-14Cato3Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951572019-03-222019-04-14Cato3Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951582019-03-222019-05-14Cato5Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951592019-03-222019-05-14Cato4Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951602019-03-222019-05-14Cato4Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951612019-03-222019-06-14Cato4Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951622019-03-222019-06-14Cato5Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951632019-03-222019-06-14Cato4Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951642019-03-222019-07-14Cato3Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951652019-03-222019-07-14Cato5Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951662019-03-222019-07-14Cato5Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951672019-03-222019-08-14Cato4Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951682019-03-222019-08-14Cato6Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951692019-03-222019-08-14Cato6Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951702019-03-222019-09-14Cato6Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951712019-03-222019-09-14Cato6Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951722019-03-222019-09-14Cato6Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951732019-03-222019-10-14Cato8Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951742019-03-222019-10-14Cato8Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951752019-03-222019-10-14Cato8Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951762019-03-222019-11-14Cato10Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951772019-03-222019-11-14Cato11Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951782019-03-222019-11-14Cato9Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951792019-03-222019-12-14Cato10Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951802019-03-222019-12-14Cato10Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951812019-03-222019-12-14Cato9Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951822019-03-222020-01-14Cato9Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951832019-03-222020-01-14Cato8Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951842019-03-222020-01-14Cato8Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951852019-03-222020-02-14Cato9Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions
1951862019-03-222020-02-14Cato9Right[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions
1951872019-03-222020-02-14Cato9Wrong[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions
1951902019-03-222019-07-06Cato3Right[Fighting] UFC 239 to be held as scheduled on July 6, 2019
1951912019-03-222019-06-30Cato4Right[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most gold medals
1951922019-03-222019-06-30Cato3Right[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most silver medals
1951932019-03-222019-06-30Cato4Right[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most bronze medals
1951942019-03-222019-06-30Cato4Right[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most medals
1951952019-03-222019-06-30Cato3Right[2019 European Games] Host country Belarus to win at least 1 gold medal
1951962019-03-222019-06-30Cato6Wrong[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least 1 gold medal
1951972019-03-222019-06-30Cato5Wrong[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing
1951982019-03-222019-03-29notsonewuser1WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-22).
1952032019-03-252019-04-01Tapetum-Lucidum2WrongFelix Sater gives a new explanation for his email remarks linking the engineering of Trump's election victory to a Putin-team buy-in.
1952042019-03-252019-04-126thNapoleon12WrongThe UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April
1952052019-03-252020-07-20skateboard3417WrongAndrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination.
1952062019-03-252019-07-01skateboard3412WrongAlex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019.
1952162019-03-282023-01-01chemotaxis1012Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito.
1952202019-03-302019-03-31Temp1231A
1952212019-03-302020-01-01kennykhsiung2WithdrawnI will graduate from PSU in 2019
1952372019-04-032019-05-01Tapetum-Lucidum5WrongFelix Sater testifies publicly before the end of April
1952382019-04-032019-06-01Tapetum-Lucidum3WrongFelix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May
1952392019-04-032020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum3WrongRex Tillerson testifies publicly before Congress before 2020
1952402019-04-032020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum3WrongRick Perry testifies publicly before the Senate Armed Services committee before 2020
1952412019-04-032020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum2RightAt least one indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020
1952472019-04-032019-05-31Cato4Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50%
1952482019-04-032019-07-05Cato5Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50%
1952492019-04-032019-08-05Cato4Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50%
1952502019-04-032019-09-05Cato4Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50%
1952512019-04-032019-10-05Cato3Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50%
1952522019-04-032019-11-05Cato3Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50%
1952532019-04-032019-12-05Cato4Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50%
1952542019-04-032020-01-05Cato5Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50%
1952552019-04-032020-02-05Cato4Wrong[US Economy] "Recession probability" indicator for December 2019 to exceed 50%
1952732019-04-062019-04-13notsonewuser1WrongI will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-06).
1952842019-04-102020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum2WrongA whistleblower claims that the US-Mexico border crossing statistics under the Trump administration are not accurate
1952852019-04-102020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting] Cody Garbrandt to fight again before 2019 EOY
1952862019-04-102020-01-01Cato2Right[Fighting] Xiong Jingnan to be ONE strawweight champion at 2019 EOY
1952872019-04-102020-01-01Cato3Right[Fighting] Angela Lee to be ONE atomweight champion at 2019 EOY
1952882019-04-102020-01-01Cato1Right[Fighting] Bibiano Fernandes to be ONE bantamweight champion at 2019 EOY
1952892019-04-102020-01-01Cato1Wrong[Fighting] Shinya Aoki to be ONE lightweight champion at 2019 EOY
1952902019-04-102020-01-01Cato1Wrong[Fighting] Zebaztian Kadestam to be ONE welterweight champion at 2019 EOY
1952912019-04-102020-01-01Cato1Right[Fighting] Aung La Nsang to be ONE champion in at least one weight class at 2019 EOY
1952922019-04-102020-01-01Cato1Right[Fighting] Brandon Vera to be ONE heavyweight champion at 2019 EOY
1952972019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Daenerys Targaryen
1952982019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Cersei Lannister
1952992019-04-102019-05-20Cato3Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Jon Snow
1953002019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Brienne of Tarth
1953012019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Samwell Tarly
1953022019-04-102019-05-20Cato3Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Bran Stark
1953032019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Gilly
1953042019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Tormund Giantsbane
1953052019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Sansa Stark
1953062019-04-102019-05-20Cato3Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Arya Stark
1953072019-04-102019-05-20Cato3Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Varys
1953082019-04-102019-05-20Cato3Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Tyrion Lannister
1953092019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Jaime Lannister
1953102019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Davos Seaworth
1953112019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Theon Greyjoy
1953122019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Missandei
1953132019-04-102019-05-20Cato4Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Sandor "The Hound" Clegane
1953142019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Bronn
1953152019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Gendry
1953162019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Jorah Mormont
1953172019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Gregor "The Mountain" Clegane
1953182019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Qyburn
1953192019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Right[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Yara Greyjoy
1953202019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Petyr Baelish/Littlefinger
1953212019-04-102019-05-20Cato2Withdrawn[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] JS/DT's child
1953222019-04-102019-05-20Cato3Wrong[Among "Game of Thrones" characters still alive as of the end of the show--including zombies--is] Melisandre
1953292019-04-112019-05-20Cato4Wrong[Game of Thrones] Viserion the ice dragon to revert to Daenerys Targaryen's control at least once by the end of the TV series
1953312019-04-112020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Daniel Cormier is UFC heavyweight champion
1953322019-04-112020-01-01Cato3Right[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Jon Jones is UFC light heavyweight champion
1953332019-04-112020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Robert Whittaker is UFC middleweight champion
1953342019-04-112020-01-01Cato3Right[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Kamaru Usman is UFC welterweight champion
1953352019-04-112020-01-01Cato6Right[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Khabib Nurmagomedov is UFC lightweight champion
1953362019-04-112020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Max Holloway is UFC featherweight champion
1953372019-04-112020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Marlon Moraes is UFC bantamweight champion
1953382019-04-112020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Henry Cejudo is UFC flyweight champion
1953392019-04-112020-01-01Cato5Right[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Amanda Nunes is UFC featherweight champion
1953402019-04-112020-01-01Cato4Right[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Amanda Nunes is UFC bantamweight champion
1953412019-04-112020-01-01Cato4Right[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Valentina Shevchenko is UFC flyweight champion
1953422019-04-112020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Rose Namajunas is UFC strawweight champion
1953432019-04-112020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Cody Garbrandt is UFC bantamweight champion
1953442019-04-112020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Dominick Cruz is UFC bantamweight champion
1953452019-04-122020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum4WrongAt least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020
1953462019-04-122020-01-01Cato5Right[Fighting] Tito Ortiz to fight in 2019
1954092019-04-122019-04-28Cato1Wrong[Fighting] John Lineker to beat Cory Sandhagen at UFC on ESPN 3
1954102019-04-122019-04-28Cato1Right[Fighting] Jim Miller to beat Jason Gonzalez at UFC on ESPN 3
1954112019-04-122019-08-01Cato5Wrong[US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate
1954152019-04-122025-01-20Tapetum-Lucidum3Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency
1954162019-04-122020-11-20Tapetum-Lucidum12WrongBeto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election
1954232019-04-142020-01-01Cato7WrongJoe Rogan to announce departure from UFC commentary by 2019 EOY
1954342019-04-162020-08-27Cato11[US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary
1954352019-04-162020-01-01Cato6Right[Fighting] Colby Covington to have a title fight in 2019
1954382019-04-162050-01-01AlexLamson5There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & "clean meat" by 2050
1954392019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Joanne Calderwood to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954402019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Liz Carmouche to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954412019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Jessica Eye to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954422019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Chris Cyborg to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954432019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Sijara Eubanks to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954442019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Katlyn Chookagian to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954452019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Germaine de Randamie to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954462019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Holly Holm to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954472019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Ketlen Vieira to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954482019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Raquel Pennington to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954492019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Cat Zingano to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954502019-04-172020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Fighting] Joanna Jedrzejczyk to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954512019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Michelle Waterson to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954522019-04-172020-01-01Cato6Right[Fighting] Weili Zhang to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954532019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Claudia Gadelha to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954542019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Nina Ansaroff to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954552019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Tatiana Suarez to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954562019-04-172020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting] Jessica Andrade to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954572019-04-172020-01-01Cato5Right[Fighting] Stipe Miocic to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954582019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Francis Ngannou to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954592019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Junior dos Santos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954602019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Curtis Blaydes to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954612019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Alistair Overeem to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954622019-04-172020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting] Daniel Cormier to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954632019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Derrick Lewis to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954642019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Alexander Gustafsson to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954652019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Thiago Santos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954662019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Anthony Smith to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954672019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Dominick Reyes to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954682019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Yoel Romero to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954692019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Luke Rockhold to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954702019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Jacare Souza to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954712019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Kelvin Gastelum to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954722019-04-172020-01-01Cato6Right[Fighting] Israel Adesanya to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954732019-04-172020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting] Tyron Woodley to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954742019-04-172020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Fighting] Colby Covington to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954752019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Rafael Dos Anjos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954762019-04-172020-01-01Cato5Wrong[Fighting] Jorge Masvidal to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954772019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Ben Askren to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954782019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Dustin Poirier to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954792019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Dominick Cruz to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954802019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954812019-04-172020-01-01Cato6Wrong[Fighting] Tony Ferguson to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954822019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Renato Moicano to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954832019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Pedro Munhoz to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954842019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Wrong[Fighting] Aljamain Sterling to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954852019-04-172020-01-01Cato4Right[Fighting] Alexander Volkanovski to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954862019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Frankie Edgar to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954872019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Raphael Assunção to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954882019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Brian Ortega to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954892019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] José Aldo to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954902019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Justin Gaethje to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954912019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Jussier Formiga to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954922019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Deiveson Figueiredo to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954932019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Wilson Reis to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954942019-04-172020-01-01Cato3Wrong[Fighting] Joseph Benavidez to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954952019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Alexandre Pantoja to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1954962019-04-172020-01-01Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Tim Elliott to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY
1955022019-04-222019-05-05Cato2Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Arjan Bhullar to beat Juan Adams
1955032019-04-222019-05-05Cato2Right[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Matt Sayles to beat Kyle Nelson
1955042019-04-222019-12-316thNapoleon5WrongThe Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election
1955112019-04-252020-04-25Cato8Right[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] US government to recognize the Government of National Accord
1955122019-04-252020-04-25Cato7Right[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] EU to recognize the Government of National Accord
1955542019-04-262019-07-26Cato13Wrong[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day
1955552019-04-262019-07-26Cato10Wrong[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day
1955562019-04-262019-07-26Cato6Right[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day
1955572019-04-262019-07-26Cato2Right[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 5 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day
1955712019-04-262019-07-17Cato3RightThe winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a first-time champion
1955722019-04-262019-07-17Cato3WrongThe winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a US citizen
1955772019-04-272025-04-28deleteyourbrain4gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them.
1955782019-04-282025-04-29deleteyourbrain3WithdrawnGwern Branwen is going to have a menage a trois with Issa Rice and Vipul Naik and he is going to write an article about his experience including ggplot2 graphs.
1955792019-04-282025-04-29deleteyourbrain3Gwern is still living with his relatives.
1955802019-04-292025-04-28deleteyourbrain3WithdrawnE. Yudkowsky will undergo "endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty". Despite the surgery he will gain weight. Gwern will advise him to try a kettlebell workout.
1955812019-04-292025-04-28deleteyourbrain4WithdrawnScott Alexander will be arrested by the FBI, because of his spiral (NAMBLA) medallion. However, gwern will smuggle in equipment to his prison cell and he will escape. In the end they will marry.
1955822019-04-292025-04-28deleteyourbrain3E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern.
1955852019-04-292025-04-28deleteyourbrain4Gwern is Jim Babcock.
1955862019-04-292025-04-28deleteyourbrain3WithdrawnGwern Branwen will overdose on mead and dark choclate.
1956162019-05-022019-05-02deleteyourbrain1RightI will not masturbate for 1 day.
1956182019-05-022019-05-03deleteyourbrain2RightI will not masturbate for 2 days.
1956192019-05-022019-06-02marcus_a_davis1Wrong[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the intro by June 1st
1956202019-05-022019-06-02marcus_a_davis1Wrong[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the table by June 1st
1956212019-05-022019-06-02marcus_a_davis1Wrong[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the summary by June 1st
1956222019-05-022019-06-02marcus_a_davis1Wrong[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] next steps by June 1st
1956692019-05-052020-05-05Cato14Wrong[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public
1956702019-05-052020-05-05Cato13Wrong[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate
1956712019-05-052020-11-01Tapetum-Lucidum5Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020
1956722019-05-052019-05-12Cato2Wrong[Fighting] Jose Aldo to beat Alex Volkanovski at UFC 237
1956732019-05-052019-05-11Cato2Right[Fighting] Douglas Lima to beat Michael Page at Bellator 221
1956812019-05-062019-05-21Cato2Wrong[Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen to kill Jon Snow
1956842019-05-082019-05-09Tapetum-Lucidum2RightHouse Judiciary Committee votes to hold William Barr in contempt of congress
1957342019-05-102020-01-12Cato6Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the KMT
1957352019-05-102020-01-12Cato7Right[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文)
1957362019-05-102020-01-12Cato4Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] William Lai (賴淸德)
1957372019-05-102020-01-12Cato3Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang Ya-chung (張亞中)
1957382019-05-102020-01-12Cato3Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋)
1957392019-05-102020-01-12Cato3Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Eric Chu (朱立倫)
1957402019-05-102020-01-12Cato5Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Terry Gou (郭台銘)
1957412019-05-102020-01-12Cato4Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Wang Jyn-pyng (王金平)
1957422019-05-102020-01-12Cato3Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] James Soong (宋楚瑜)
1957432019-05-102020-01-12Cato3Wrong[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang San-cheng (張善政)
1957442019-05-102019-06-12Cato4Wrong[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019
1957452019-05-102019-07-14Cato2Wrong[Commodities] As of July 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of June 2019
1957462019-05-102019-08-14Cato3Wrong[Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019
1957472019-05-102019-09-14Cato4Wrong[Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019
1957482019-05-102019-10-14Cato5Wrong[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019
1957492019-05-102019-12-14Cato6Right[Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019
1957502019-05-102019-12-14Cato7Wrong[Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019
1957512019-05-102020-02-14Cato5Right[Commodities] As of January 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of December 2019
1957522019-05-102020-03-14Cato4Wrong[Commodities] As of February 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of January 2020
1957532019-05-102020-03-14Cato6Wrong[Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020
1957542019-05-102020-04-14Cato5Wrong[Commodities] As of April 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of March 2020
1957552019-05-102020-05-14Cato6Wrong[Commodities] As of May 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of April 2020
1957562019-05-102019-08-10minerjamon5WrongThe predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later).
1957572019-05-132020-05-13Cato10Right[Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12
1957622019-05-132020-06-01Cato19WrongUS military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM
1957632019-05-132019-06-01Cato4Wrong[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019
1957642019-05-132019-07-01Cato5Right[US-China] Xi and Trump to meet during June 2019 G20 meeting in Japan
1957652019-05-132020-01-01Cato5Right[Fighting] Robert Whittaker to fight Israel Adesanya in 2019
1957742019-05-142019-07-10Cato2Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019
1957752019-05-142019-08-10Cato2Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019
1957762019-05-142019-08-10Cato2Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018
1957772019-05-142019-09-10Cato2Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019
1957782019-05-142019-09-10Cato2Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018
1957792019-05-142019-10-10Cato3Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018
1957802019-05-142019-10-10Cato3Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2019
1957812019-05-142019-11-10Cato2Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018
1957822019-05-142019-11-10Cato2Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019
1957832019-05-142019-12-10Cato2Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019
1957842019-05-142019-12-10Cato2Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018
1957852019-05-142020-01-10Cato2Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2019
1957862019-05-142020-01-10Cato2Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2018
1957872019-05-142020-02-10Cato2Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2019
1957882019-05-142020-02-10Cato2Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2019
1957892019-05-142020-03-10Cato3Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2020
1957902019-05-142020-03-10Cato3Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2019
1957912019-05-142020-04-10Cato4Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2020
1957922019-05-142020-04-10Cato4Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2019
1957932019-05-142020-05-10Cato4Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2020
1957942019-05-142020-05-10Cato4Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2019
1957952019-05-142020-06-10Cato4Wrong[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019
1957962019-05-142020-06-10Cato4Right[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2020
1957972019-05-142020-07-16amadeu12Right[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden
1957982019-05-142020-07-16amadeu5Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders
1957992019-05-142020-07-16amadeu5Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris
1958002019-05-142020-07-16amadeu5Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren
1958012019-05-142020-07-16amadeu4Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg
1958022019-05-142020-07-16amadeu4Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke
1958032019-05-142020-07-16amadeu3Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker
1958042019-05-142020-07-16amadeu3Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar
1958052019-05-142020-07-16amadeu3Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Julián Castro
1958062019-05-142020-07-16amadeu3Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kirsten Gillibrand
1958072019-05-142020-07-16amadeu6Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard
1958082019-05-142020-07-16amadeu5Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang
1958092019-05-142020-07-16amadeu3Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Jay Inslee
1958102019-05-142020-07-16amadeu4Wrong[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other
1958202019-05-162020-06-14Cato8Wrong[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd
1958212019-05-162020-06-14Cato8Wrong[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd
1958222019-05-162020-06-14Cato8Wrong[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd
1958282019-05-172025-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum3The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey
1958312019-05-182020-05-01quanticle2RightApple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar.
1958322019-05-182019-06-30amadeu1RightAustria's vice chancellor to resign by June 30
1958332019-05-182025-01-01quanticle6/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit
1958372019-05-192019-05-22enolan1Wrong[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo
1958382019-05-192019-05-22enolan1Wrong[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo
1958392019-05-192019-05-22enolan1Wrong[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo
1958402019-05-192022-05-02separo1WithdrawnTesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued in 3 years.
1958412019-05-192023-05-02separo2WithdrawnFrom 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis.
1958432019-05-192022-05-02separo2Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022
1958442019-05-192023-05-02separo1From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis.
1958452019-05-192020-05-02separo10WrongTesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020
1958462019-05-192019-09-296thNapoleon7RightBoris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference
1959782019-05-222020-11-04Tapetum-Lucidum3At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election
1959792019-05-222020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum3WrongIRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress
1959822019-05-222019-05-26stepan1WrongRussia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship
1960112019-05-272019-09-01estebanf20191Para el mes 10 de 2019 habre terminado la certificacion de frontend developer de freecodecamp.
1960122019-05-282019-10-01Cato4WrongKim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01
1960392019-05-302019-08-31Cato9WrongUS to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30
1960402019-05-302019-08-31Cato9WrongChinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30
1960412019-05-302020-05-10Cato20Right[US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09
1960422019-05-302020-06-25Cato5Wrong[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for May 2020 to exceed 110
1960432019-05-302020-05-25Cato5Wrong[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for April 2020 to exceed 110
1960442019-05-302020-04-25Cato6Wrong[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for March 2020 to exceed 110
1960452019-05-302020-03-25Cato6Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for February 2020 to exceed 110
1960462019-05-302020-02-25Cato6Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for January 2020 to exceed 110
1960472019-05-302020-01-25Cato4Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for December 2019 to exceed 110
1960482019-05-302019-12-25Cato4Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for November 2019 to exceed 110
1960492019-05-302019-11-25Cato3Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for October 2019 to exceed 110
1960502019-05-302019-10-25Cato3Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for September 2019 to exceed 110
1960512019-05-302019-09-25Cato2Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for August 2019 to exceed 110
1960522019-05-302019-08-25Cato2Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for July 2019 to exceed 110
1960532019-05-302019-07-25Cato2Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for June 2019 to exceed 110
1960542019-05-302019-06-18Cato2Right[US economy] Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" for May 2019 to exceed 110
1960692019-06-022020-11-01Tapetum-Lucidum5Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020
1960702019-06-022022-05-066thNapoleon6WrongThe Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election
1960712019-06-022019-12-31zilong8RightUS-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019.
1960942019-06-032019-06-04jbeshir1WrongPersonal, Productivity - I complete Art of Tidying discarding before deadline.
1961042019-06-052020-11-04Tapetum-Lucidum9By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published
1961052019-06-052020-11-04Tapetum-Lucidum26Trump wins a second term in office
1961802019-06-182019-12-31objclone3RightFed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019
1961812019-06-182019-07-31objclone3RightFed cut rate at least 25bps in July
1961832019-06-202019-12-31objclone5RightSPY return positive in year 2019
1961842019-06-202019-12-31objclone3RightGold hit above $1500/oz at least once in 2019
1961872019-06-242020-01-01jamesrom22WrongBitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020
1962312019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Wrong[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the next steps by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962322019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Wrong[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] supplemental work started in 2018 by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962332019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Wrong[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] work leading to the creation (if not completion) of an outside study by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962342019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Right[REDACTED PROJECT C will] complete a cost-effectiveness analysis by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962352019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Withdrawn[REDACTED PROJECT C will] publish (at least on demand) by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962362019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Right[REDACTED PROJECT D will] publish by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962372019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Wrong[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 1] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962382019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Wrong[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 2] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962392019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Wrong[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 3] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962402019-07-022019-10-01marcus_a_davis1Wrong[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st)
1962602019-07-082019-12-12skateboard342RightLewis Hamilton will win the F1 Driver's Championship 2019.
1962612019-07-082025-01-01Antbak4Person to walk on the moon by 2025
1962622019-07-082030-01-01Antbak5Person to walk on the moon by 2030
1962652019-07-092020-08-21Cato20[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women
1962792019-07-112019-10-11Michael Dickens2AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period
1962832019-07-122020-03-18SeriousPod5WrongKamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee
1966272019-07-172020-08-09Cato3[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or "Chinese Taipei") to win at least one medal
1966282019-07-172020-08-09Cato3[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting
1966292019-07-172020-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee
1966302019-07-172020-08-09Cato3[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee
1966312019-07-172020-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee
1966322019-07-172020-08-09Cato3[2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee
1966332019-07-172020-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA
1966342019-07-172020-08-09Cato3[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee
1966352019-07-172020-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA
1966362019-07-172020-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee
1966372019-07-172020-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA
1966672019-07-192024-07-19two2thehead2[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years
1966682019-07-192024-07-19two2thehead4[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years
1966692019-07-192027-01-01wolfish_wrath1I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027
1966842019-07-202027-01-01wolfish_wrath2I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027
1966872019-07-202019-07-27enolan2WrongThe Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week
1966882019-07-202027-01-01wolfish_wrath1RightI will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key)
1966952019-07-222024-07-22two2thehead4[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years
1967002019-07-222025-01-01wolfish_wrath1I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025
1967172019-07-242019-11-01Cato20Wrong[Politics: By 2019-11-01] "no-deal Brexit" to have happened
1967182019-07-242019-11-01Cato12Wrong[Politics: By 2019-11-01] "Brexit with a deal" to have happened
1967192019-07-242019-11-01Cato8Right[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended
1967202019-07-242019-11-01Cato7Wrong[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held
1967212019-07-242019-11-01Cato11Wrong[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced
1967222019-07-242019-11-01Cato9Wrong[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election
1967232019-07-242019-11-01Cato4Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have gained seats in general election
1967242019-07-242019-11-01Cato4Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have gained seats in general election
1967252019-07-242019-11-01Cato5Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Democratic Unionists to have gained seats in general election
1967262019-07-242019-11-01Cato5Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Scottish National Party to have gained seats in general election
1967272019-07-242019-11-01Cato4Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have gained seats in general election
1967282019-07-242019-11-01Cato4Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Independent Group for Change to have gained seats in general election
1967292019-07-242019-11-01Cato4Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have won a majority in general election
1967302019-07-242019-11-01Cato4Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have won a majority in general election
1967312019-07-242019-11-01Cato4Withdrawn[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have won a majority in general election
1967322019-07-242020-07-24Cato7[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23
1967332019-07-242020-07-24Cato6[Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23
1967342019-07-242020-01-24Cato6WrongChinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23
1967352019-07-242023-01-01wolfish_wrath3I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023
1967362019-07-242020-07-17Jackzilla2The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A')
1967612019-07-262020-01-26Cato7WrongUS Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25
1967812019-07-292019-09-29Cato6Right[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5%
1967822019-07-292019-09-29Cato7Wrong[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9%
1967832019-07-292019-09-29Cato7Wrong[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15%
1967862019-07-292019-09-29Cato5Wrong[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7
1967872019-07-292019-09-29Cato6Wrong[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6
1967882019-07-292019-09-29Cato6Wrong[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5
1967892019-07-292019-09-29Cato6Right[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4
1967902019-07-292019-09-29Cato6Wrong[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3
1967912019-07-292019-09-29Cato4Wrong[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent "A-" or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2
1967922019-07-292019-09-29Cato8Wrong[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2
1967932019-07-292019-09-29Cato6Wrong[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3
1967942019-07-292019-09-29Cato8Wrong[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4
1967952019-07-292019-09-29Cato9Right[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5
1967962019-07-292019-09-29Cato9Wrong[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6
1967972019-07-292019-09-29Cato6Wrong[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7
1968022019-07-302019-12-22Cato2Right[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven and Badr Hari to fight as scheduled on 2019-12-21
1968032019-07-302019-12-22Cato2Right[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven to beat Badr Hari in their December 2019 fight
1968042019-07-302019-09-14Cato2Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4
1968052019-07-302019-09-14Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5
1968062019-07-302019-09-14Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6
1968072019-07-302019-09-14Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7
1968082019-07-302019-09-14Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8
1968092019-07-302019-09-14Cato5Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9
1968102019-07-302019-09-14Cato8Right[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10
1968112019-07-302019-09-14Cato8Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11
1968122019-07-302019-09-14Cato6Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12
1968132019-07-302019-09-14Cato5Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13
1968142019-07-302019-09-14Cato5Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14
1968152019-07-302019-09-14Cato6Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15
1968162019-07-302019-09-14Cato4Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16
1968172019-07-302019-09-14Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17
1968182019-07-302019-09-14Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18
1968192019-07-302019-09-14Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19
1968202019-07-302019-09-14Cato2Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20
1968442019-08-012020-08-01Cato6Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31
1968452019-08-012020-08-01Cato6Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31
1968492019-08-022019-12-01Cato3Right[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5
1968502019-08-022019-12-01Cato3Right[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6
1968512019-08-022019-12-01Cato4Right[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7
1968522019-08-022019-12-01Cato4Right[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8
1968532019-08-022019-12-01Cato4Right[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9
1968542019-08-022020-01-01Cato5Wrong[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7
1968552019-08-022020-01-01Cato3Right[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5
1968562019-08-022020-01-01Cato3Right[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6
1968572019-08-022020-01-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7
1968582019-08-022020-01-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8
1968592019-08-022020-01-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9
1968602019-08-022020-03-01Cato5Wrong[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7
1968612019-08-022020-03-01Cato4Right[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5
1968622019-08-022020-03-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6
1968632019-08-022020-03-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7
1968642019-08-022020-03-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8
1968652019-08-022020-03-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9
1968662019-08-022020-02-01Cato5Wrong[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7
1968672019-08-022020-02-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5
1968682019-08-022020-02-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6
1968692019-08-022020-02-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7
1968702019-08-022020-02-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8
1968712019-08-022020-02-01Cato5Right[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9
1968722019-08-022019-11-01Cato12Wrong[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM
1969202019-08-112020-07-01lettergram2RightAMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation
1969212019-08-122022-01-01bobpage12Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022
1969302019-08-152021-01-01Cato5RightSaudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY
1969552019-08-232020-08-16predoindk5Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry
1969562019-08-232020-08-16predoindk4There'll be a global average "dip" in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears
1969572019-08-232024-08-16predoindk3The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse
1969582019-08-232025-08-16predoindk5Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025
1969622019-08-252025-12-31predoindk5At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability.
1969632019-08-252030-12-31predoindk5At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030
1969642019-08-252021-12-31predoindk3Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021
1969742019-08-262019-08-26wizzwizz42WrongPerson sitting next to me will still be staring at phone in half an hour.
1969802019-08-293000-01-01pranomostro7I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.
1969812019-08-292100-01-01pranomostro5The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years.
1969822019-08-292100-01-01pranomostro6The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020.
1969832019-08-292040-01-01pranomostro3There will be a crocs movie before 2040.
1969842019-08-312019-09-02Tapetum-Lucidum1WithdrawnThe Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, September 1 2019.
1969852019-08-312019-09-01Tapetum-Lucidum1WrongThe Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, August 31 2019.
1970352019-09-152029-09-15krazemon3Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years.
1970362019-09-152039-09-15krazemon3Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years.
1970572019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Wrong[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h30m and 4h45m
1970582019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Wrong[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h45m and 5h00m
1970592019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Wrong[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h00m and 5h15m
1970602019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Wrong[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h15m and 5h30m
1970612019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Wrong[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h30m and 5h45m
1970622019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Wrong[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h45m and 6h00m
1970632019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Wrong[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 6h00m and 6h15m
1970642019-09-182019-09-24WilliamKiely1Right[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] More than 6h15m
1970942019-09-182019-09-18batemancapital1RightFederal Reserve cuts rate by 25bps on September FOMC meeting
1970972019-09-182020-06-05Cato5Right[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] to be canceled/banned
1970982019-09-182020-02-04Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Joe Biden
1970992019-09-182020-02-04Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971002019-09-182020-02-04Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971012019-09-182020-02-04Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971022019-09-182020-02-04Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971032019-09-182020-02-04Cato8Right[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971042019-09-182020-02-04Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker
1971052019-09-182020-02-04Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971062019-09-182020-02-04Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Julian Castro
1971072019-09-182020-02-04Cato5Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971082019-09-182020-02-04Cato6Wrong[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] any other candidate
1971092019-09-182020-02-12Cato7Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Joe Biden
1971102019-09-182020-02-12Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971112019-09-182020-02-12Cato8Right[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971122019-09-182020-02-12Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971132019-09-182020-02-12Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971142019-09-182020-02-12Cato7Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971152019-09-182020-02-12Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Cory Booker
1971162019-09-182020-02-12Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971172019-09-182020-02-12Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Julian Castro
1971182019-09-182020-02-12Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971192019-09-182020-02-12Cato6Wrong[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] any other candidate
1971202019-09-182020-02-23Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Joe Biden
1971212019-09-182020-02-23Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971222019-09-182020-02-23Cato11Right[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971232019-09-182020-02-23Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971242019-09-182020-02-23Cato7Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971252019-09-182020-02-23Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971262019-09-182020-02-23Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Cory Booker
1971272019-09-182020-02-23Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971282019-09-182020-02-23Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Julian Castro
1971292019-09-182020-02-23Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971302019-09-182020-02-23Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] any other candidate
1971312019-09-182020-03-02Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden
1971322019-09-182020-03-02Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971332019-09-182020-03-02Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971342019-09-182020-03-02Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971352019-09-182020-03-02Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971362019-09-182020-03-02Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971372019-09-182020-03-02Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker
1971382019-09-182020-03-02Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971392019-09-182020-03-02Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro
1971402019-09-182020-03-02Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971412019-09-182020-03-02Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] any other candidate
1971422019-09-182020-03-11Cato11Right[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Joe Biden
1971432019-09-182020-03-11Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971442019-09-182020-03-11Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971452019-09-182020-03-11Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971462019-09-182020-03-11Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971472019-09-182020-03-11Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971482019-09-182020-03-11Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Cory Booker
1971492019-09-182020-03-11Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971502019-09-182020-03-11Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971512019-09-182020-03-11Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Julian Castro
1971522019-09-182020-03-11Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] any other candidate
1971532019-09-182020-03-18Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Joe Biden
1971542019-09-182020-03-18Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971552019-09-182020-03-18Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971562019-09-182020-03-18Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971572019-09-182020-03-18Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971582019-09-182020-03-18Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971592019-09-182020-03-18Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Cory Booker
1971602019-09-182020-03-18Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971612019-09-182020-03-18Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Julian Castro
1971622019-09-182020-03-18Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971632019-09-182020-03-18Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] any other candidate
1971642019-09-182020-03-25Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Joe Biden
1971652019-09-182020-03-25Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971662019-09-182020-03-25Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971672019-09-182020-03-25Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971682019-09-182020-03-25Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971692019-09-182020-03-25Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971702019-09-182020-03-25Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Cory Booker
1971712019-09-182020-03-25Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971722019-09-182020-03-25Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971732019-09-182020-03-25Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Julian Castro
1971742019-09-182020-03-25Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] any other candidate
1971752019-09-182020-04-05Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Joe Biden
1971762019-09-182020-04-05Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971772019-09-182020-04-05Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971782019-09-182020-04-05Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971792019-09-182020-04-05Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971802019-09-182020-04-05Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971812019-09-182020-04-05Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Cory Booker
1971822019-09-182020-04-05Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971832019-09-182020-04-05Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Julian Castro
1971842019-09-182020-04-05Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971852019-09-182020-04-05Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] any other candidate
1971862019-09-182020-04-08Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Joe Biden
1971872019-09-182020-04-08Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971882019-09-182020-04-08Cato11Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1971892019-09-182020-04-08Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Andrew Yang
1971902019-09-182020-04-08Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1971912019-09-182020-04-08Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Kamala Harris
1971922019-09-182020-04-08Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Cory Booker
1971932019-09-182020-04-08Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1971942019-09-182020-04-08Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Julian Castro
1971952019-09-182020-04-08Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1971962019-09-182020-04-08Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] any other candidate
1971972019-09-182020-05-05Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Joe Biden
1971982019-09-182020-05-05Cato11[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1971992019-09-182020-05-05Cato12[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1972002019-09-182020-05-05Cato11[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Andrew Yang
1972012019-09-182020-05-05Cato9[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Kamala Harris
1972022019-09-182020-05-05Cato11[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1972032019-09-182020-05-05Cato3[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Cory Booker
1972042019-09-182020-05-05Cato3[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1972052019-09-182020-05-05Cato3[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Julian Castro
1972062019-09-182020-05-05Cato3[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1972072019-09-182020-05-05Cato9[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] any other candidate
1972082019-09-182020-04-29Cato11Right[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Joe Biden
1972092019-09-182020-04-29Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1972102019-09-182020-04-29Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1972112019-09-182020-04-29Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Andrew Yang
1972122019-09-182020-04-29Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Kamala Harris
1972132019-09-182020-04-29Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1972142019-09-182020-04-29Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Cory Booker
1972152019-09-182020-04-29Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1972162019-09-182020-04-29Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Julian Castro
1972172019-09-182020-04-29Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1972182019-09-182020-04-29Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] any other candidate
1972192019-09-182020-05-03Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Joe Biden
1972202019-09-182020-05-03Cato11Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1972212019-09-182020-05-03Cato11Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1972222019-09-182020-05-03Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Andrew Yang
1972232019-09-182020-05-03Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1972242019-09-182020-05-03Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Kamala Harris
1972252019-09-182020-05-03Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Cory Booker
1972262019-09-182020-05-03Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1972272019-09-182020-05-03Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Julian Castro
1972282019-09-182020-05-03Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1972292019-09-182020-05-03Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] any other candidate
1972302019-09-182020-05-13Cato9Right[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden
1972312019-09-182020-05-13Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1972322019-09-182020-05-13Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1972332019-09-182020-05-13Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris
1972342019-09-182020-05-13Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang
1972352019-09-182020-05-13Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1972362019-09-182020-05-13Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker
1972372019-09-182020-05-13Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1972382019-09-182020-05-13Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro
1972392019-09-182020-05-13Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1972402019-09-182020-05-13Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] any other candidate
1972412019-09-182020-05-20Cato10Right[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Joe Biden
1972422019-09-182020-05-20Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1972432019-09-182020-05-20Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1972442019-09-182020-05-20Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Andrew Yang
1972452019-09-182020-05-20Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Kamala Harris
1972462019-09-182020-05-20Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1972472019-09-182020-05-20Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Cory Booker
1972482019-09-182020-05-20Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1972492019-09-182020-05-20Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Julian Castro
1972502019-09-182020-05-20Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1972512019-09-182020-05-20Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] any other candidate
1972522019-09-182020-06-03Cato9Right[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Joe Biden
1972532019-09-182020-06-03Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1972542019-09-182020-06-03Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1972552019-09-182020-06-03Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Andrew Yang
1972562019-09-182020-06-03Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Kamala Harris
1972572019-09-182020-06-03Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1972582019-09-182020-06-03Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Cory Booker
1972592019-09-182020-06-03Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1972602019-09-182020-06-03Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Julian Castro
1972612019-09-182020-06-03Cato2Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1972622019-09-182020-06-03Cato8Wrong[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] any other candidate
1972632019-09-182020-04-01Cato2WrongChuukese independence referendum to be held in March 2020
1972642019-09-182020-07-06Cato3RightDominican Republican presidential election to return a winner in the first round
1972652019-09-182020-10-26Cato4LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election
1972662019-09-182020-04-16Cato4RightPolitics: South Korea's Democratic Party (Minjoo) to retain its plurality in the National Assembly after 2020 election
1972672019-09-182021-08-09Cato3[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union
1972682019-09-182021-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States
1972692019-09-182021-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France
1972702019-09-182021-08-09Cato2[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba
1972712019-09-182020-02-07Cato2WrongWTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in January 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1)
1972722019-09-182020-03-07Cato3RightWTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in February 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1)
1972732019-09-182020-04-07Cato3RightWTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in March 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1)
1972832019-09-182020-03-04Cato12Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren
1972842019-09-182020-03-04Cato13Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Bernie Sanders
1972852019-09-182020-03-04Cato12Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Andrew Yang
1972862019-09-182020-03-04Cato9Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Kamala Harris
1972872019-09-182020-03-04Cato11Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg
1972882019-09-182020-03-04Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Cory Booker
1972892019-09-182020-03-04Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar
1972902019-09-182020-03-04Cato5Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke
1972912019-09-182020-03-04Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro
1972922019-09-182020-03-04Cato10Wrong[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] any other candidate
1973152019-09-192020-03-19Cato5Right[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate
1973162019-09-192020-03-19Cato4Wrong[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged
1973172019-09-192020-01-30Cato2Wrong[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate
1973182019-09-192020-01-30Cato2Wrong[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate
1973192019-09-192020-01-30Cato2Right[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged
1973202019-09-192020-04-30Cato4Wrong[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate
1973212019-09-192020-04-30Cato4Wrong[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate
1973222019-09-192020-04-30Cato4Right[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged
1973232019-09-192020-09-17Cato6[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate
1973242019-09-192020-09-17Cato6[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate
1973252019-09-192020-09-17Cato6[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged
1973262019-09-192020-07-30Cato7[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate
1973272019-09-192020-07-30Cato7[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate
1973282019-09-192020-07-30Cato6[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged
1973292019-09-192020-06-11Cato7Wrong[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate
1973302019-09-192020-06-11Cato7Wrong[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate
1973312019-09-192020-06-11Cato8Right[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged
1973322019-09-192020-08-27Cato8US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence
1973392019-09-192020-10-22Cato6US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3.
1973432019-09-192020-10-27Cato8[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300
1973442019-09-192020-10-27Cato8[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400
1973452019-09-192020-10-27Cato8[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500
1973582019-09-192024-03-16wolfish_wrath2[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority)
1973592019-09-192024-03-16wolfish_wrath2[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs
1973662019-09-222020-09-22batemancapital3Scott Galloway: SoftBank's Vision Fund will be shuttered within 12 months
1973682019-09-222019-11-21batemancapital2RightScott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days
1973712019-09-242019-11-30Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4
1973722019-09-242019-11-30Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5
1973732019-09-242019-11-30Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6
1973742019-09-242019-11-30Cato3Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7
1973752019-09-242019-11-30Cato6Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8
1973762019-09-242019-11-30Cato7Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9
1973772019-09-242019-11-30Cato8Right[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10
1973782019-09-242019-11-30Cato5Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11
1973792019-09-242019-11-30Cato4Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12
1973802019-09-242019-11-30Cato2Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more
1973812019-09-242020-03-15Cato8Wrong[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU
1973822019-09-242020-03-15Cato9Withdrawn[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK still in EU
1973832019-09-242020-03-15Cato8Withdrawn[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] no-deal Brexit having taken place
1973842019-09-242020-03-15Cato8Withdrawn[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] Brexit-with-a-deal having taken place
1973922019-09-262020-11-04Cato7[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11
1973932019-09-262020-11-04Cato11[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12
1973942019-09-262020-11-04Cato10[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13
1973952019-09-262020-11-04Cato8[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14
1973962019-09-262020-11-04Cato9[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15
1973972019-09-262020-11-04Cato10[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16
1973982019-09-262020-11-04Cato10[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17
1973992019-09-262020-11-04Cato9[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18
1974002019-09-262020-11-04Cato8[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19
1974012019-09-262020-11-04Cato8[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more
1974022019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1WrongTeam Liquid will make it out of group stage. (LoL).
1974032019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1RightG2 will make it out of group stage. (LoL).
1974042019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1RightFnatic will make it out of group stage. (LoL).
1974052019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1RightFunPlus Phoenix will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974062019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1RightSKT will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974072019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1WrongRNG will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974082019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1WrongC9 will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974092019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1RightGriffin will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974102019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1WrongJ-Team will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974112019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1WrongGigabyte Marines will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974122019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1RightIG will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974132019-09-262019-10-12PseudonymousUser1WrongAHQ will make it out of groups. (LoL).
1974162019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] G2.
1974172019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Griffin.
1974182019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] C9.
1974192019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] FunPlus Phoenix.
1974202019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] J-Team.
1974212019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Gigabyte Marines.
1974222019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] SKT.
1974232019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Fnatic.
1974242019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] RNG.
1974252019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Team Liquid.
1974262019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] AHQ.
1974272019-09-262019-10-12Air_Cat1Withdrawn[The following team will make it out of group stage (LoL):] Invictus Gaming.
1974522019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American
1974532019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American
1974542019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French
1974552019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British
1974562019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish
1974572019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian
1974582019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese
1974592019-09-272020-10-20Cato3[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese
1974602019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian
1974612019-09-272020-10-20Cato2[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian
1974952019-09-292024-09-29two2thehead3[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] arrested within five (5) years
1975062019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Right[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [12, 40]
1975072019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Right[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [16, 40]
1975082019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Right[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [20, 40]
1975092019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Wrong[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [24, 40]
1975102019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Wrong[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [28, 40]
1975112019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Wrong[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [32, 40]
1975122019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Wrong[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [35, 40]
1975132019-10-012019-10-01Air_Cat1Wrong[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [38, 40]
1975642019-10-112020-07-31Cato9[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584)
1975652019-10-112020-07-31Cato11[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801)
1975662019-10-112020-07-31Cato11[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628)
1975672019-10-112020-07-31Cato10[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187)
1975682019-10-112020-07-31Cato10[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973)
1975692019-10-112020-07-31Cato10[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236)
1975702019-10-112020-07-31Cato10[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049)
1975712019-10-112020-07-31Cato11[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307)
1975722019-10-112020-07-31Cato11[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607)
1976072019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Right[SC2] Dark makes it out of Group A
1976082019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Wrong[SC2] ShoWTimE makes it out of Group A
1976092019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Right[SC2] soO makes it out of Group A
1976102019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Wrong[SC2] SpeCial makes it out of Group A
1976112019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Right[SC2] Maru makes it out of Group B
1976122019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Wrong[SC2] TIME makes it out of Group B
1976132019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Wrong[SC2] Stats makes it out of Group B
1976142019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Right[SC2] Serral makes it out of Group B
1976152019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Right[SC2] Classic makes it out of Group C
1976162019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Wrong[SC2] HeRoMaRinE makes it out of Group C
1976172019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Wrong[SC2] herO makes it out of Group C
1976182019-10-162019-11-01Michael Dickens1Right[SC2] Reynor makes it out of Group C
1976382019-10-182019-10-21deoh3Right[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Joseph Saelee
1976392019-10-182019-10-21deoh3Wrong[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] someone who has never won a Classic Tetris World Championship before
1976402019-10-182019-10-21deoh3Wrong[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Greentea
1976412019-10-182019-10-20deoh1Wrong[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jonas Neubauer
1976422019-10-182019-10-20deoh1Right[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Joseph Saelee
1976432019-10-182019-10-20deoh1Right[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Greentea
1976442019-10-182019-10-20deoh1Right[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Koryan
1976452019-10-182019-10-20deoh2WrongThe lowest qualifying score for entry into the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be above 700000 points
1976462019-10-192020-07-01Tapetum-Lucidum11RightThe Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020
1976472019-10-192019-10-20deoh1Wrong[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 8
1976482019-10-192019-10-20deoh2Wrong[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 12
1976492019-10-192019-10-20deoh1Wrong[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 15
1976502019-10-192019-10-20deoh1Wrong[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 18
1976512019-10-192019-10-21deoh1Right[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] DanQZ
1976522019-10-192019-10-21deoh2Wrong[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jani
1976532019-10-192019-10-21deoh1Wrong[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Svavar
1976542019-10-192019-10-21deoh1Wrong[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Harry Hong
1976552019-10-192019-10-21deoh2Right[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Batfoy
1976562019-10-192019-10-21deoh2Wrong[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Matt Buco
1976572019-10-202020-05-01krazemon8WrongBitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight).
1976772019-10-252021-01-01Cato4Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Justin Gaethje
1976782019-10-252021-01-01Cato4Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Nate Diaz
1976792019-10-252021-01-01Cato4Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Jorge Masvidal
1976802019-10-252021-01-01Cato2Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Khabib Numagomedov
1976812019-10-252021-01-01Cato2Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Tony Ferguson
1976822019-10-252021-01-01Cato4Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Frankie Edgar
1976832019-10-252021-01-01Cato3Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre
1976842019-10-252021-01-01Cato3Wrong[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against someone else
1976972019-10-312019-11-03Michael Dickens1Wrong[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Maru
1976982019-10-312019-11-03Michael Dickens1Wrong[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Reynor
1976992019-10-312019-11-03Michael Dickens1Wrong[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Rogue
1977002019-10-312019-11-03Michael Dickens1Right[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Dark
1977012019-10-312019-11-03Michael Dickens1Wrong[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Classic
1977022019-10-312019-11-03Michael Dickens1Wrong[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] soO
1977032019-10-312019-11-03Michael Dickens1Wrong[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Trap
1977102019-11-012019-12-20Cato5Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5
1977112019-11-012019-12-20Cato9Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6
1977122019-11-012019-12-20Cato10Right[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7
1977132019-11-012019-12-20Cato9Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8
1977142019-11-012019-12-20Cato10Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9
1977152019-11-012019-12-20Cato9Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10
1977162019-11-012019-12-20Cato8Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11
1977172019-11-012019-12-20Cato6Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12
1977182019-11-012019-12-20Cato4Wrong[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more
1977612019-11-112019-11-21MatrixJedi1RightIn ten days, we will still live on the farm.
1977642019-11-122020-05-12sortega4Withdrawn[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno
1977652019-11-122020-05-12sortega6Right[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE
1977662019-11-122020-05-12sortega6Wrong[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP
1977672019-11-122020-05-12sortega6Wrong[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos
1977682019-11-122020-05-12sortega4Wrong[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe...)
1977692019-11-122020-05-12sortega7Wrong[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE
1977702019-11-122020-05-12sortega6Right[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP e indepes
1977712019-11-122020-05-12sortega7Wrong[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes
1977722019-11-122020-05-12sortega5Wrong[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+
1977732019-11-122020-05-12sortega8[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año
1977742019-11-122020-05-12sortega7[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años
1977752019-11-122020-05-12sortega7[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura
1977762019-11-122019-12-01Tapetum-Lucidum3WrongAdditional predictions appear, written in Spanish.
1977982019-11-182020-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum2WrongPLA to use force against protesters in Hong Kong before 2020-01-01
1977992019-11-182019-12-01Tapetum-Lucidum3WrongVice President Mike Pence to make any public comment regarding the impeachment hearings
1978282019-11-222020-08-21Cato6Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10
1978292019-11-222020-08-21Cato7Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 11 to 20
1978302019-11-222020-08-21Cato6Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30
1978312019-11-222020-08-21Cato5[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40
1978322019-11-222020-08-21Cato4[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51
1978332019-11-222020-08-21Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0
1978342019-11-222020-08-21Cato6[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10
1978352019-11-222020-08-21Cato6Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 11 to 20
1978362019-11-222020-08-21Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 21 to 30
1978372019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40
1978382019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51
1978392019-11-222020-08-21Cato4[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0
1978402019-11-222020-08-21Cato6[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10
1978412019-11-222020-08-21Cato6Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 11 to 20
1978422019-11-222020-08-21Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30
1978432019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40
1978442019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51
1978452019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0
1978462019-11-222020-08-21Cato7[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10
1978472019-11-222020-08-21Cato7[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20
1978482019-11-222020-08-21Cato5Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 21 to 30
1978492019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 31 to 40
1978502019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51
1978512019-11-222020-08-21Cato6[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0
1978522019-11-222020-08-21Cato6[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10
1978532019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20
1978542019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30
1978552019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40
1978562019-11-222020-08-21Cato3Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51
1978572019-11-222020-08-21Cato11[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0
1978582019-11-222020-08-21Cato8[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10
1978592019-11-222020-08-21Cato6Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20
1978602019-11-222020-08-21Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30
1978612019-11-222020-08-21Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40
1978622019-11-222020-08-21Cato4Wrong[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, *not* won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51
1979342019-12-122025-01-01skateboard344Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025.
1979372019-12-122020-02-24qznc4RightAfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election
1979642019-12-232020-12-31batemancapital2Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020
1979652019-12-232020-07-01tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com18Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination
1979662019-12-232020-02-15tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com4WrongThe Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl
1979672019-12-232020-11-04tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com21Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected
1979792019-12-292021-12-25qznc2Avatar 2 is released in December 2021
1979802019-12-292020-12-25qznc2Dune movie is released in December 2020
1979812019-12-292020-12-25qznc2Uncharted movie is released in December 2020
1979822019-12-292021-06-30qznc2Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021
1979832019-12-292021-12-31qznc2Diablo IV is released in 2021
1979842019-12-292020-12-25qznc2Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020
1979852019-12-292020-02-01qznc1Wrong[Vikings] Lagertha survives season 6
1979862019-12-292020-02-01qznc1Wrong[Vikings] Bjorn is elected king of all Norway
1979872019-12-292021-01-01Bruno Parga1The transition from the XOF franc to the eco will be complete in all countries currently using XOF.
1979902019-12-302024-06-01optimaton2BJP will win even the 2024 elections
1980572020-01-012021-01-01Bruno Parga2Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro)
1980692020-01-012020-05-31Paul.David.Carr1WrongLiverpool will win the treble in 2020: FA Cup, Premier League, Champions League
1980702020-01-012024-12-31Paul.David.Carr4Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing.
1980712020-01-012020-03-31batemancapital2Wrong10Y Treasury yield goes above 2% in Q1 2020
1980722020-01-012020-12-31batemancapital2Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative
1980752020-01-012020-12-31batemancapital2S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500
1980762020-01-012024-12-31batemancapital3U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025
1980772020-01-012020-01-31batemancapital2WrongJanuary 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money
1980782020-01-012020-04-30batemancapital6WrongApril 2020 VIX call at 65 will be in the money
1980792020-01-012021-01-01waveman1I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020
1980812020-01-012022-07-01waveman1I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022
1981022020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2[The Economist predicts:] Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela
1981032020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga10[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500
1981042020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga3[The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum
1981052020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics
1981062020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2Right[The Economist predicts:] Billie Eilish wins album of the year at the Grammys
1981072020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2Right[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars
1981082020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2[The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament
1981092020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2[The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics
1981102020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2[The Economist predicts:] Sweden wins the Eurovision Song Contest
1981112020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2[The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries
1981122020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga3[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months
1981132020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga5[The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down
1981142020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga5[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO
1981152020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga2[The Economist predicts:] Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA
1981162020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga6[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize
1981172020-01-022021-01-01Bruno Parga3[The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch
1981202020-01-032030-12-31qznc3Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030
1981212020-01-032030-12-31qznc2Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years
1981222020-01-032030-12-31qznc8Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030
1981232020-01-032030-12-31qznc3Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years.
1981242020-01-032030-12-31qznc2Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down
1981252020-01-032030-12-31qznc3There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere
1981262020-01-032030-01-01Bruno Parga3There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there.
1981272020-01-032031-01-01Bruno Parga3In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018.
1981282020-01-032026-05-01Bruno Parga2"We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025"
1981292020-01-032031-01-01Bruno Parga2China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030
1981302020-01-032032-01-01Bruno Parga2By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were "popping up" around the USA.
1981312020-01-032030-01-01Bruno Parga8Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars
1981322020-01-032030-06-30Bruno Parga5As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line.
1981332020-01-042030-01-01Bruno Parga2[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country
1981342020-01-042030-01-01Bruno Parga2[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic)
1981352020-01-042030-01-01Bruno Parga2[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion
1981362020-01-042030-01-01Bruno Parga2[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor
1981372020-01-042021-01-01Bruno Parga2[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16
1981382020-01-042021-01-01Bruno Parga2[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16
1981392020-01-042021-01-01Bruno Parga2[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joined by at least one other state
1981402020-01-042021-01-01Bruno Parga2[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joind by at least 4 other states
1981412020-01-042021-01-01Bruno Parga2[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 229 electoral votes
1981422020-01-042021-01-01Bruno Parga3[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes
1981432020-01-042021-01-01Bruno Parga3The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers
1981482020-01-052030-01-01krazemon4The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade.
1981532020-01-072021-01-01Cato7[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020
1981542020-01-072020-10-01Cato7[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3
1981552020-01-072020-07-01Cato9Right[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1
1981562020-01-072020-04-01Cato4Right[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1
1981862020-01-112020-01-18jbeshir1WrongPersonal - My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-18
1981872020-01-112020-01-26jbeshir2WrongPersonal - My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25
1981882020-01-112020-02-01jbeshir1WrongPersonal - I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01
1981892020-01-112020-01-26jbeshir1RightPersonal - I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25.
1981902020-01-112020-01-19jbeshir2WrongTech - Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18
1981962020-01-152020-01-22peter_hurford1RightKen Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament
1981972020-01-152020-01-15peter_hurford1RightKen Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament tonight
1981982020-01-152020-12-31peter_hurford3Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020
1982042020-01-152021-01-01peter_hurford3Trump meets with Kim in 2020
1982052020-01-152021-01-01peter_hurford4Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020
1982062020-01-152021-01-01peter_hurford3Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020
1982112020-01-152020-07-15peter_hurford8Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee
1982122020-01-152020-07-15peter_hurford10Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee
1982132020-01-152020-07-15peter_hurford5The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg
1982202020-01-162021-01-01sty.silver1[Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time)
1982212020-01-162021-01-01sty.silver1[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now.
1982222020-01-162021-05-01sty.silver1Right[Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late
1982232020-01-162021-01-01sty.silver1[Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020.
1982242020-01-162021-01-01sty.silver1[Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62
1982252020-01-162021-01-01sty.silver1[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions
1982282020-01-172021-01-01peter_hurford2Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193
1982312020-01-182020-02-18jbeshir2WrongBusiness, UK - Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline.
1982322020-01-182020-02-02jbeshir3WrongPolitics, UK - Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time.
1982332020-01-182020-02-06jbeshir2WrongTech - Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05.
1982342020-01-182021-01-01peter_hurford3WrongThe Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020
1982352020-01-182021-01-01peter_hurford2WithdrawnConditional on Trump’s impeachment trial having at least one witness give testimony, Hunter Biden will give testimony
1982362020-01-182021-01-01peter_hurford3California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020
1982372020-01-182025-01-19sungk20483[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025.
1982382020-01-182021-01-01sungk20481[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier
1982392020-01-182025-01-19sungk20487Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.
1982402020-01-182023-01-19sungk20481[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury)
1982432020-01-192020-01-27jbeshir2RightPersonal, Productivity - I get through "Economic Implications Of Software Minds" by deadline.
1982572020-01-222021-01-01nortriptyline246Right[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000
1982582020-01-222021-01-01nortriptyline242[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million
1982592020-01-222021-01-01nortriptyline232[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million
1982602020-01-222021-01-01nortriptyline234[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million
1982612020-01-222021-01-01nortriptyline233[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million
1982622020-01-222021-01-01nortriptyline227[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million
1982712020-01-232021-01-01nortriptyline237Right[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000
1982722020-01-232035-01-01WilliamKiely7[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025
1982732020-01-232035-01-01WilliamKiely6[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030
1982742020-01-232035-01-01WilliamKiely6[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035
1982752020-01-232020-02-28jbeshir13RightHealth, UK - News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline.
1982792020-01-252020-03-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, UK - Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline.
1982912020-02-012020-03-01jbeshir5RightHealth, UK - Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline.
1982922020-02-012020-03-01jbeshir2RightPersonal - My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline.
1982932020-02-012020-02-10jbeshir2WrongPersonal - I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline.
1982942020-02-012020-03-01jbeshir1RightPersonal - I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline.
1983172020-02-082020-02-10jbeshir1RightWeather, UK - Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather
1983182020-02-082020-02-09jbeshir1WrongWeather, UK - My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08
1983322020-02-132020-02-20jbeshir1WithdrawnPolitics, UK - Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count.
1983332020-02-132020-02-20jbeshir3RightPolitics, UK - Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count.
1983342020-02-132020-02-20jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline.
1983352020-02-132020-02-20jbeshir1RightPolitics, UK - Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline.
1983462020-02-142024-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum5Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023
1983862020-02-212020-10-02Tumblewood2Wrong[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1
1983872020-02-212020-10-02Tumblewood2Wrong[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1
1983882020-02-212020-10-02Tumblewood2Wrong[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1
1983892020-02-212020-10-02Tumblewood2[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1
1983902020-02-212020-10-02Tumblewood2[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1
1983992020-02-222020-02-29jbeshir3RightPolitics - Seven day "reduction in violence" starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties.
1984002020-02-222020-04-01jbeshir3RightPolitics - Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline.
1984012020-02-222020-08-31avi2I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020
1984022020-02-232020-11-04ntrueman4EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all.
1984052020-02-232030-01-01Mati2A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030.
1984062020-02-232030-01-01Mati3The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029.
1984072020-02-232044-01-01Mati3The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.
1984082020-02-232051-01-01Mati2A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.
1984092020-02-232057-01-01Mati3A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.
1984102020-02-232090-01-01Mati3Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win
1984132020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely2Wrong[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February
1984142020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely6Wrong[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March
1984152020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely6[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April
1984162020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May
1984172020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June
1984182020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July
1984192020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August
1984202020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September
1984212020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October
1984222020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November
1984232020-02-242021-01-01WilliamKiely4[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December
1984262020-02-262021-04-15EnergyParade22020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA).
1984272020-02-262020-04-01suitecake6Right10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020
1984282020-02-262020-05-01suitecake5Right10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020
1984292020-02-262020-06-01suitecake6Right10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020
1984362020-02-282025-01-01jbeshir5Health - Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory.
1984372020-02-282020-03-04jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually.
1984382020-02-292020-03-20jbeshir4RightEffective Altruism - EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled.
1984392020-02-292020-04-01jbeshir4RightHealth, UK - COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline.
1984402020-02-292020-04-01jbeshir3WrongPolitics - Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify.
1984412020-02-292020-04-01jbeshir2RightHealth, UK - Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like "where possible" or "unless unavoidable" attached.
1984422020-02-292030-01-01Mati3Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030.
1984432020-02-292036-01-01Mati2Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036.
1984442020-02-292042-01-01Mati2Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042.
1984452020-02-292030-01-01Mati3Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030.
1984462020-02-292030-01-01Mati5A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045.
1984472020-02-292042-01-01Mati3Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042.
1984482020-02-292090-01-01Mati5A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090.
1984612020-03-052020-06-16lazarus3Wrong[For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020.
1984622020-03-052020-06-16lazarus8Wrong[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021.
1984682020-03-062020-07-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, US - SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo.
1984732020-03-082020-05-15Ianharrison2The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia
1984742020-03-082020-05-15Ianharrison2The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas
1984752020-03-082020-12-31batemancapital2RightFederal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020
1984762020-03-082020-07-30batemancapital2WrongFed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting.
1984772020-03-082020-12-31batemancapital2LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020
1984852020-03-102021-12-31batemancapital4SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021
1985002020-03-142020-08-01qznc2Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August.
1985012020-03-142020-08-01qznc2WrongTotal COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August
1985042020-03-142020-04-01qznc12WrongItaly has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April
1985052020-03-142020-03-16Adam Zerner2WrongTrump has the coronavirus
1985062020-03-142020-10-30daveisright5More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US
1985072020-03-142020-05-01daveisright1Withdrawnvorpal will have a job
1985282020-03-192020-07-31kjaques10<2M coronavirus deaths.
1985292020-03-192020-07-31kjaques11< 35M coronavirus deaths
1985312020-03-202020-04-01Stucwerk19RightMore than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March
1985372020-03-212020-03-28jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline.
1985522020-03-212020-05-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, UK - Government says restaurants may reopen for sit-in service before end of April.
1985532020-03-212020-04-01jbeshir2WrongBusiness, UK - Tesco cease to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, by end of March.
1985542020-03-212020-03-31jbeshir2RightBusiness, UK - Tesco continue to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, but on checking on the 31st of March, there are no available slots on or before the 14th of April.
1985572020-03-222020-12-31sjy11Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020
1985582020-03-222020-12-31sjy10Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020
1985672020-03-242020-04-20moyamo2WrongThe day on day increase people tested positive for COVID19 in South Africa will on average be > 20% at least until 100,000 people have tested positive
1985702020-03-252020-04-08areyouhappy3RightDespite the lockdown in India, COVID-19 cases will continue to rise for another 2 weeks. The lockdown will be extended to the end of April.
1985712020-03-252020-04-01atharva1176WrongIndia - Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020
1985752020-03-272020-06-30batemancapital3WrongU.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020
1985792020-03-282020-05-01jbeshir1WrongHealth, UK - UK government amends lockdown rules to put a specific numeric upper limit on distance travelled from home during exercise before end of April, and the limit is strictly less than 10 miles.
1985802020-03-282020-05-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, UK - Government introduces a government managed rationing system for any consumer good before end of April.
1985812020-03-282020-05-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, UK - UK government announces, before the end of April, it will bring forward payments under "(COVID-19) Self-employment Income Support Scheme" to earlier than June, or introduce an additional scheme helping the self-employed.
1985822020-03-282020-03-29jbeshir1RightPersonal - My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least 4 bottles of any variety of cola from the order. Dr Pepper counts.
1985832020-03-282020-03-29jbeshir1WrongPersonal - My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least two packets of pasta of any variety.
1985842020-03-282021-01-01sjy2No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020
1985852020-03-282020-04-01raulquan1Wrongestado de excepcion lo quitarán el 1 de abril 2020
1985862020-03-292021-01-01sjy2There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020
1985872020-03-302020-05-01qznc5RightGermany makes face masks mandatory (at least in certain places) in April
1985882020-03-302020-07-04sty.silver3WrongThere will be at least 160.000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in China on July 1, 2020.
1985892020-03-312020-12-31Sashoir4At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020
1985902020-04-012020-05-04jacobgreenleaf3RightSan Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd
1985932020-04-012020-05-01Stucwerk14WrongTotal deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April.
1985942020-04-012020-05-01Stucwerk15WrongTotal deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April.
1985972020-04-032021-04-01credunkist6US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.
1986172020-04-062020-07-31qznc7Right80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July
1986182020-04-062020-05-01qznc1RightWill take the US [at least] until May to get back under 1000 deaths a day again
1986192020-04-062021-06-16sortega1Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered)
1986202020-04-062021-06-16sortega2Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered)
1986212020-04-062020-04-10Rob Bednark1WrongSPY will stay below 270 this week (before 1pm PT close on Friday 4/6/20)
1986222020-04-062020-04-10Rob Bednark1RightSPY will be no lower than 250 for the rest of this week (Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT - Fri 4/10/20 1pm PT market close).
1986232020-04-062020-04-07Rob Bednark1WrongES futures will range between 2575 and 2650 between Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT and market open Tue 4/7/20 6:30am PT.
1986242020-04-072020-04-17bradleybossard3WrongUVXY will hit $65 again by April 17th
1986362020-04-102020-07-10Jayson Virissimo5If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more.
1986462020-04-102020-05-01JoshuaZ3WrongSweden to have a stay-at-home lockdown by the end of April
1986702020-04-142020-06-01qznc2RightSchools in Germany will open again in April
1986822020-04-172021-01-01batemancapital2S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020
1986922020-04-182021-11-03qznc2Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year
1987012020-04-192021-01-01peter_hurford1RightRethink Charity gets SBA PPP program money in 2020
1987022020-04-192021-01-01peter_hurford1RightContingent on more money being added to the PPP program, that money will be available for 501c3 non-profits
1987032020-04-192020-06-01peter_hurford2Righta bill passes and is signed into law to add more money to the SBA PPP program in 2020 before 1am on June 1, 2020 ET
1987182020-04-212020-12-31Laurent Bossavit3France to experience a Covid "second wave" in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year)
1987192020-04-222020-06-01Tapetum-Lucidum1WrongOne or more members of predictionbook acknowledges that excluding features with statistically significant coefficients when constructing statistical models is a form pseudo-rationality, and admits below to being guilty of this.
1987202020-04-222021-04-21batemancapital1Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021
1987522020-04-242020-08-10qznc1The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed.
1987532020-04-252020-06-01jbeshir2RightPersonal - I weigh in below 67kg by the end of May.
1987542020-04-252020-06-02jbeshir4WrongPolitics, UK - More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020
1987552020-04-252020-06-04jbeshir3WrongCOVID, Sweden - Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020.
1987562020-04-252020-06-04jbeshir3WrongCOVID, Sweden - Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020.
1987572020-04-252020-08-01jbeshir3Politics, UK - General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020.
1987582020-04-252020-08-01jbeshir1Business, UK - Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July.
1987612020-04-262020-04-27evand1RightStarhopper SN 4 test article will pass cryo pressure test
1987622020-04-262021-04-26evand9Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus
1987972020-05-022020-06-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics UK - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full by end of May.
1987982020-05-022020-06-01jbeshir2RightPolitics UK - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May.
1987992020-05-022020-06-01jbeshir2RightPolitics, UK - "The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (4)" requirement to close premises and businesses is revoked or amended, or the list of affected businesses in Schedule 2 is amended, by end of May.
1988002020-05-022020-06-01jacobgreenleaf3RightSan Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st.
1988142020-05-052030-12-31wizzwizz41WithdrawnGlobal yearly malaria death toll <40 000 by 2030.
1988222020-05-082020-09-01Adam Zerner1Jaylen Samuels makes the roster
1988232020-05-082020-09-01Adam Zerner1Tuzar Skipper makes the roster
1988242020-05-082020-12-31batemancapital1Fed cuts Fed Fund rate to negative before end of 2020
1988282020-05-092020-11-16evand1Amash gets the R nomination in 2020, conditional on Trump not getting it.
1988742020-05-122021-01-01daffy1adsfasdfasdf
1988792020-05-142020-09-24Bruno Parga2I have learned all words in all 7 levels of Memrise Russian.
1988832020-05-152020-05-24jbeshir1RightPersonal, Productivity - I finish making Anki cards for and reading chapters 5 and 6 of "An Introduction to Godel's Theorems" by the end of the 23rd of May.
1988842020-05-152020-07-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, UK - Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June.
1988852020-05-152020-06-25jbeshir1RightPolitics, UK - Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June.
1988912020-05-162021-01-01enolan1[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021
1988922020-05-162021-01-01enolan1[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2021
1989462020-05-222020-08-01amadeu7[Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris
1989472020-05-222020-08-01amadeu4[Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer
1989482020-05-222020-08-01amadeu6[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren
1989492020-05-222020-08-01amadeu4[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham
1989502020-05-222020-08-01amadeu4[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan
1989512020-05-222020-08-01amadeu3[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams
1989522020-05-222020-08-01amadeu3[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else
1989532020-05-232021-01-01jbeshir1Tech - LG releases a "swivel" two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020
1989542020-05-232020-05-28jbeshir8WrongTech - Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May.
1989552020-05-232020-06-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, India - Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May.
1989562020-05-232021-01-01jbeshir1Tech - iPhone 12 releases in 2020
1989572020-05-232021-01-01jbeshir1Tech - iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model.
1989582020-05-232020-05-28jbeshir1WrongTech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May, and successfully delivers them to the ISS.
1989752020-05-252020-05-26msonaeiou1WrongT will come to the party tomorrow
1989762020-05-252020-05-25msonaeiou1RightJon will not ask me to play CoD tonight
1989772020-05-252020-05-26msonaeiou1RightAll 4 other invited people will come to the party tomorrow
1989802020-05-252020-05-25msonaeiou1RightVlad and Valerie will kiss by the end of the episode
1989922020-05-262021-01-01Adam Zerner5Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus
1989962020-05-272020-12-25wizzwizz41It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments)
1990032020-05-282025-05-23smodnix1Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025
1990072020-05-282020-07-01jbeshir2WrongPolitics, UK - Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020.
1990082020-05-282020-07-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020.
1990092020-05-282020-07-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020.
1990122020-05-282020-11-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith prior to the start of November 2020.
1990132020-05-282020-11-01jbeshir2Politics, US - An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020
1990142020-05-282020-07-01jbeshir1WrongPolitics, US - Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020.
1991792020-06-012023-01-05Issa Rice1Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom.
1991802020-06-012023-01-05Issa Rice1Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit).
1991912020-06-022031-01-01InquilineKea2 Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030
1991922020-06-022026-01-01InquilineKea1Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025
1991932020-06-032031-01-01InquilineKea2Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030
1992032020-06-042020-11-25JoshuaZ9Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him.
1992112020-06-052024-01-01InquilineKea1Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023
1992122020-06-052025-01-01InquilineKea1Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian
1992132020-06-052031-01-01InquilineKea1There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020
1992142020-06-052035-01-01InquilineKea2Ralph Nader will hit age 100
1992152020-06-052031-01-01InquilineKea1Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030?
1992162020-06-052099-01-01InquilineKea1Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father?
1992172020-06-052099-01-01InquilineKea1Will Adam D'Angelo become a father?
1992182020-06-052031-01-01InquilineKea1Will Issa Rice become a wizard?
1992192020-06-052021-02-01jbeshir4Politics, US - Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so.
1992202020-06-052020-10-01InquilineKea1US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020
1992232020-06-062020-07-01jbeshir3WrongCOVID, UK - For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400.
1992242020-06-062020-07-01jbeshir1WrongCOVID, US - For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600.
1992252020-06-062020-07-01jbeshir2RightCOVID - Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800.
1992262020-06-062020-07-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Officers placed on unpaid leave in Buffalo, in relation to the hospitalisation of a 75-year old man, are criminally charged in relation to this action by end of June.
1992272020-06-062021-01-16LouisLC12021 Portuguese presidential election - Abstention higher than 50%
1992282020-06-062021-01-01LouisLC1Portugal - countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020
1992332020-06-072020-09-01katriel1Sowmya will do any work (not including sending messages) for EpidemicForecasting.org between June 5, 2020 and Aug 31, 2020.
1992342020-06-072021-05-16sortega1Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas)
1992352020-06-072020-07-01qznc1RightGerman Corona warning app goes live in June
1992402020-06-092021-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum6North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020
1992412020-06-092021-01-01Tapetum-Lucidum1Cal Newport changes his name to something that doesn't sound like a state, a cigarette, or a beach.
1992442020-06-092022-01-01JoshuaZ2New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021.
1992452020-06-092021-02-22JoshuaZ3SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021.
1992462020-06-092022-01-01JoshuaZ1First SLS to fly by end of 2021.
1992582020-06-102021-01-04qznc1Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis)
1992702020-06-112021-01-01Deepak2By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2
1992732020-06-112020-11-04Deepak1Democrats hold House in 2020
1992742020-06-112020-06-19Deepak2Right[Top Chef will be won by] Melissa
1992752020-06-112020-06-19Deepak2Wrong[Top Chef will be won by] Bryan
1992762020-06-112020-06-19Deepak1Wrong[Top Chef will be won by] Kevin
1992772020-06-112020-06-19Deepak2Wrong[Top Chef will be won by] Stephanie
1993032020-06-132020-07-11krazemon1Arizona's daily new COVID cases count will be >=6000, as measured by Google's tracker: https://g.co/kgs/8UHaz1, on July 11, 2020.
1993042020-06-132020-07-11krazemon2Florida's daily new COVID cases count will be >=7500, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9XhcYm), on July 11, 2020.
1993052020-06-132020-07-11krazemon2Texas's daily new confirmed COVID cases will be >=8000 as of July 11, 2020, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9be2zJ).
1993142020-06-152041-01-01InquilineKea1Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040
1993152020-06-152020-11-01Tapetum-Lucidum11Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate
1993162020-06-152027-04-02Mathieu_Putz3World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026.
1993202020-06-172020-11-15akarlin3Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things)
1993212020-06-172021-01-15akarlin2This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%)
1993222020-06-172021-03-15akarlin1Russia's GDP will decline by more than 10% this year #coronavirus , https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1240818241502658566 (duplicating March 20 bet)
1993232020-06-172020-07-05akarlin1RightVote on Russian constitutional amendment on July 1 to get more than 65% support
1993342020-06-202020-06-27jbeshir1RightTech - Apple announces during WWDC 2020 that they intend to release devices, not necessarily specified, which use ARM processors and run macOS at any point in the future, not necessarily specified.
1993352020-06-202020-06-27jbeshir1WrongTech - Apple announces at least one new smart speaker model whose price is below $299 during WWDC.
1993382020-06-202020-06-27jbeshir2RightTech - Apple announces that iOS 14 or iPadOS 14 will contain the ability to change the default email app and/or default browser during WWDC 2020.
1993392020-06-202020-08-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Geoffrey Berman, the US Attorney in Manhattan, resigns or is fired by the end of July 2020.
1993482020-06-212020-08-01contra3Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate.
1993512020-06-212029-01-01InquilineKea7Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election
1993682020-06-232021-01-01azatris1TSLA to split stocks by end of 2020
1993712020-06-232021-01-01akarlin4I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88)
1993722020-06-232020-07-08akarlin16WrongScott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT
1993772020-06-242021-01-01peter_hurford6Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year
1993782020-06-242020-10-20smodnix1Telegram app will block in some countries.
1994002020-06-272020-10-01MikeMitchell1I deploy a project other than my portfolio site.
1994012020-06-282021-02-01krazemon5A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.
1994222020-06-302020-07-01Deepak1Wrong[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jan + Henck
1994232020-06-302020-07-01Deepak1Wrong[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jim + Ralph
1994242020-06-302020-07-01Deepak1Wrong[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Sarah + Jordan
1994572020-07-012021-07-16JoshuaZ1The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS.
1994582020-07-012020-12-31contra4Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.
1994612020-07-032022-01-01InquilineKea5Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021
1994702020-07-052020-08-01Tapetum-Lucidum6Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid
1994712020-07-052020-08-01jbeshir2COVID, UK - Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July.
1994722020-07-052020-08-01jbeshir1Personal - I weigh less than 63kg by the end of July.
1994732020-07-052020-08-01jbeshir1RightPolitics, US - Someone is charged in relation to car driven into protestors on Interstate 5 in Seattle on the 4th of July 2020 by end of July.
1994742020-07-052020-08-01jbeshir1Tech - OnePlus Nord is released by deadline and has a 90Hz refresh rate screen in all models.
1994752020-07-052020-08-01jbeshir1Tech - OnePlus Nord's UK release price is £400 or less.